WEBVTT - Malcolm Gladwell on Near Misses 0:00:15.076 --> 0:00:26.276 Pushkin. This is Solvable. I'm Ronald Young Jr. The rational 0:00:26.276 --> 0:00:29.356 response to being asked to fight in a war is 0:00:29.396 --> 0:00:33.716 to go crazy. That, of course, is the voice of 0:00:33.796 --> 0:00:37.796 Pushkin co founder Malcolm Bladwell. And I invited Malcolm back 0:00:37.836 --> 0:00:40.716 to Solvable because I've recently been thinking a lot about 0:00:40.756 --> 0:00:43.436 something I read that he published back in twenty thirteen, 0:00:43.876 --> 0:00:48.636 his book David and Goliath. The subtitle is Underdogs, Misfits 0:00:48.716 --> 0:00:51.276 and the Art of Battling Giants. It's a book that 0:00:51.316 --> 0:00:54.076 takes a closer look at events in which one outcome 0:00:54.356 --> 0:00:58.156 is greatly favored over another and discusses why sometimes those 0:00:58.156 --> 0:01:03.676 outcomes don't turn out as expected. This episode is a 0:01:03.676 --> 0:01:06.556 little different from our typical Solvable and that we don't 0:01:06.676 --> 0:01:09.556 exactly solve a problem here, but in the spirit of 0:01:09.596 --> 0:01:12.836 the show, we're very optimistic in our discussion of a 0:01:12.836 --> 0:01:15.836 big idea, and as you listen, you'll begin to get 0:01:15.836 --> 0:01:18.676 a sense of exactly why we chose now to have 0:01:18.796 --> 0:01:28.636 this particular discussion. Imagine you're living in Britain in the 0:01:28.716 --> 0:01:33.276 late nineteen thirties. Germany is preparing to attack your country. 0:01:33.356 --> 0:01:36.836 It's the start of the Second World War. The military 0:01:36.916 --> 0:01:40.836 is mobilizing. Preparations are being made for mass casualties. You're 0:01:40.876 --> 0:01:42.836 debating whether or not you should stay in the city 0:01:43.236 --> 0:01:45.676 or move to the countryside until the danger has passed. 0:01:46.756 --> 0:01:49.756 The British Military Command does a kind of projection of 0:01:49.756 --> 0:01:51.756 what they think is going to happen, and they think 0:01:51.796 --> 0:01:54.996 they're going to have six hundred thousand dead, one point 0:01:55.076 --> 0:01:59.116 two million wounded, and mass panic. They think that no 0:01:59.156 --> 0:02:01.316 one's going to go to work, which means that all 0:02:01.356 --> 0:02:05.996 of industrial production in England will cease. They think that 0:02:06.036 --> 0:02:08.956 the army will be useless because the army will be 0:02:09.436 --> 0:02:11.996 spend all of its time trying to keep the civilians 0:02:12.556 --> 0:02:17.316 like from going nuts. They really think it's over. The 0:02:17.436 --> 0:02:20.756 fear and uncertainty in the air are palpable. But what 0:02:20.796 --> 0:02:23.316 are you going to do? Can you still go to work? 0:02:24.156 --> 0:02:26.996 What about friends of family? Will they be safe? What 0:02:27.236 --> 0:02:31.036 is going to happen to all of you? And I 0:02:31.116 --> 0:02:37.516 know these questions may feel familiar. It's just funny about 0:02:37.516 --> 0:02:42.116 how a different circumstances in different times we have very 0:02:42.196 --> 0:02:46.356 different responses to people who have this kind of psychological 0:02:46.396 --> 0:02:49.756 reaction of invulnerability. They cannot be heroes or they can 0:02:49.796 --> 0:02:53.676 be chumps. While our responses to the fear of an 0:02:53.676 --> 0:02:57.156 impending battle and its immediate physical threats may be quite 0:02:57.196 --> 0:03:00.196 different from our responses to the fear of a global pandemic. 0:03:00.916 --> 0:03:03.836 There's a way in which they're actually kind of similar 0:03:04.756 --> 0:03:08.876 community approach. We've fallen so in love with the language 0:03:09.156 --> 0:03:12.756 of personal freedom and responsibility that we've forgotten the power 0:03:12.876 --> 0:03:19.796 of collective appeals to community. Here's my conversation with Malcolm Gladwell. 0:03:20.076 --> 0:03:23.796 We're going to examine the parallels and intersections of fear, vulnerability, 0:03:24.036 --> 0:03:32.876 and responsibility when it comes to war and a global pandemic. Malcolm, 0:03:32.996 --> 0:03:35.676 welcome back to Solvable. It's great to have you here 0:03:35.756 --> 0:03:38.916 once again. Thank you. So I want to tell you 0:03:38.996 --> 0:03:43.116 about the my earliest introduction to you. It was in 0:03:43.396 --> 0:03:48.036 twenty thirteen and you were on the Ted Radio Hour 0:03:48.516 --> 0:03:52.116 and you were giving an interview with Guy Roz about 0:03:52.236 --> 0:03:55.156 your book David and Goliath, because you had just done 0:03:55.396 --> 0:03:58.716 a Ted talk on that. Do you remember that, I do, Yeah, great. 0:03:58.836 --> 0:04:01.676 I liked it because, you know, as a self proclaimed 0:04:01.716 --> 0:04:05.556 church guy, you gave a very different definition to David 0:04:05.556 --> 0:04:08.556 and Goliath, the battle what actually happened? And I love 0:04:08.636 --> 0:04:10.876 this book. I bought it it's one of my favorites. 0:04:10.916 --> 0:04:12.596 I think it's you know, a lot of people talk 0:04:12.596 --> 0:04:14.556 about blank and outliers in the other books you wrote, 0:04:14.556 --> 0:04:17.436 but David and Goliath is by far my favorite. And 0:04:17.476 --> 0:04:19.676 I bought the book thinking I'm just gonna get all 0:04:19.716 --> 0:04:22.876 these you know, insights about you know, underdogs and misfits 0:04:22.916 --> 0:04:24.156 and all that, which I did, and I thought it 0:04:24.196 --> 0:04:27.116 was gonna be purely based on David and Goliath. But 0:04:27.196 --> 0:04:29.396 then I got to one chapter and it was chapter 0:04:29.516 --> 0:04:33.636 five and a Canadian psychiatrist who wrote this book called 0:04:33.636 --> 0:04:37.276 The Structure of Morale named J. T. McCurdy talks about 0:04:37.396 --> 0:04:40.276 the bombings in Britain. Can you recount that? Yeah? Those, 0:04:40.316 --> 0:04:42.196 So this is, by the way, thank you for the 0:04:42.236 --> 0:04:44.476 kindroids about David and Glad. David and Glad happens to 0:04:44.476 --> 0:04:47.196 be my favorite of all my books as well. So 0:04:48.036 --> 0:04:51.716 this is something that has always not just fascinated me, 0:04:51.796 --> 0:04:56.196 but puzzled people for a long time. Which was at 0:04:56.236 --> 0:04:59.196 the start of the Second World War. The British knew 0:04:59.876 --> 0:05:04.436 that the Germans had a fleet of bombers, and they 0:05:04.476 --> 0:05:08.956 also knew the state of their defenses against bombers were 0:05:09.596 --> 0:05:11.796 that there was nothing they could do to stop the Germans. 0:05:12.476 --> 0:05:14.956 So the first thing they did, of course, was they 0:05:15.276 --> 0:05:18.356 a lot of children who lived in London were moved 0:05:18.396 --> 0:05:21.956 to the countryside. The second thing they did was they 0:05:22.316 --> 0:05:25.196 got the fire trucks ready for what would be you know, 0:05:25.236 --> 0:05:28.076 all kinds of all kinds of the normal things. More 0:05:28.116 --> 0:05:31.156 than that, they became convinced that the devastation would be 0:05:31.196 --> 0:05:36.076 such that the population of London would panic, and so 0:05:36.156 --> 0:05:39.356 they did things like they converted a whole series of 0:05:39.396 --> 0:05:45.276 buildings on the outskirts of London to psychiatric makeshift psychiatric hospitals, 0:05:45.276 --> 0:05:47.956 because they figured so many people will be traumatized, they 0:05:47.956 --> 0:05:51.276 assumed that some incredible percentage of the population of London 0:05:51.276 --> 0:05:54.596 would flee the city. They really worried that the war 0:05:54.676 --> 0:05:57.676 would be over, panic in London would be such and 0:05:57.716 --> 0:05:59.676 would spread the rest of the country and people would 0:05:59.716 --> 0:06:02.076 see that the Germans could just come and bomb at will, 0:06:02.476 --> 0:06:04.876 and they thought, you know, this could be this could 0:06:04.916 --> 0:06:09.276 be it for us. They were terrified from top to bottom. 0:06:09.396 --> 0:06:12.676 So the bombing comes in the fall of nineteen forty, 0:06:12.756 --> 0:06:18.396 the famous blitz, right, and it lasts about eight months, 0:06:18.836 --> 0:06:22.556 and the Germans come, you know, not every night, but 0:06:22.636 --> 0:06:26.316 there's one stretch where they come for fifty seven consecutive 0:06:26.596 --> 0:06:30.476 nights and they drop tens of thousands of tons of 0:06:30.556 --> 0:06:34.716 high explosive bombs on London. They damage a million buildings, 0:06:34.716 --> 0:06:37.356 they wipe out much of the East End, and the 0:06:37.476 --> 0:06:42.156 panic never comes, and nobody can believe it. They're like, 0:06:42.236 --> 0:06:46.316 what happened? Why is everyone? In fact, not only does 0:06:46.316 --> 0:06:50.316 a panic not come, but like after a little while, 0:06:50.836 --> 0:06:54.276 people get so over it that they start going back 0:06:54.316 --> 0:06:57.716 to their business and you know, they go to where 0:06:57.756 --> 0:07:01.076 or they go to the pubs at night, they party, 0:07:01.276 --> 0:07:04.276 they do all the things young people are on in 0:07:04.356 --> 0:07:09.956 the streets. And as you can imagine, every psychiatrist, social scientists, 0:07:10.076 --> 0:07:13.796 psychologists in England at the time is like driving around 0:07:13.836 --> 0:07:19.436 London saying, I am witnessing something that makes no sense. Right, 0:07:19.796 --> 0:07:24.276 we've terror the Germans have terrorized the population of London. 0:07:24.676 --> 0:07:28.756 And there's like kids playing you know, football in the streets, 0:07:29.276 --> 0:07:33.116 and there's couples like going dancing at night, and there's 0:07:33.156 --> 0:07:36.796 people dancing drinking in pubs and the bombs are falling. 0:07:37.196 --> 0:07:41.996 It's this completely bizarre event to kick off the war. 0:07:42.516 --> 0:07:46.276 And so this British psychiatrist comes along. J. T. McCarthy, 0:07:46.316 --> 0:07:49.596 the guy you mentioned the top, and he tries to 0:07:49.636 --> 0:07:53.996 explain what happened, and I think that's what that's the thing. 0:07:54.156 --> 0:07:57.356 It sounds like that drew your eye to that chapter. Yes, yes, 0:07:57.476 --> 0:08:00.556 And that's what gets me because when I read this, 0:08:00.636 --> 0:08:02.516 I thought about it all the time. When I first 0:08:02.516 --> 0:08:04.316 read this, and this was back in twenty thirteen, I 0:08:04.316 --> 0:08:07.116 thought about it all the time. And I remember he 0:08:07.236 --> 0:08:11.156 divided them into three groups to direct hits, and those 0:08:11.196 --> 0:08:13.476 are the people that are dead, people that just didn't 0:08:13.476 --> 0:08:16.356 make it through the bombing. Then there were near misses. 0:08:16.476 --> 0:08:19.516 Those were people who were experiencing the devastation of the 0:08:19.516 --> 0:08:22.356 bomb but did not experience death, or even people who 0:08:22.356 --> 0:08:25.396 were close to someone who experienced the devastation of the bomb, 0:08:25.476 --> 0:08:29.756 family member, whatever. Then there were the majority of London 0:08:29.996 --> 0:08:34.036 experience what he called remote misses, which is mean you 0:08:34.196 --> 0:08:36.556 heard about the bomb a few feet over, you felt 0:08:36.596 --> 0:08:39.876 the rumbling, you felt the building shake, but you didn't 0:08:39.876 --> 0:08:42.876 experience any devastation. And one are the quotes that you 0:08:42.916 --> 0:08:45.116 wrote the book was that the morale of the community 0:08:45.396 --> 0:08:49.316 depends on the reaction of the survivors because the majority 0:08:49.356 --> 0:08:52.836 of the community is experiencing remote misses. They have this 0:08:53.036 --> 0:08:56.276 experience of feeling invulnerable as opposed to the people who 0:08:56.436 --> 0:09:00.916 experienced near misses, who they actually have a higher sense 0:09:00.956 --> 0:09:03.596 of fear or a higher sense of actual danger when 0:09:03.596 --> 0:09:06.316 the bombs fall. Yeah. So yeah, he does this thing 0:09:06.956 --> 0:09:11.236 which is in retrospect. I think it's incredibly brilliant. He 0:09:11.316 --> 0:09:16.516 says that your reaction to a traumatic event is a 0:09:16.636 --> 0:09:21.956 function of your proximity to it. So you're right, there's 0:09:22.116 --> 0:09:24.636 the people who are most proximate to a traumatic event, 0:09:24.676 --> 0:09:26.836 other ones who are killed by it. They're presumably the 0:09:26.916 --> 0:09:28.756 ones who are the most terrified at the moment before 0:09:28.756 --> 0:09:32.756 they died. But they're dead, right, Yeah, they can't spread 0:09:33.036 --> 0:09:35.836 we don't know how they felt. They can't spread their feelings. 0:09:36.076 --> 0:09:40.636 They have no impact. They're gone. Right. Second group near 0:09:40.716 --> 0:09:43.156 miss is they're the ones who the bomb drops in 0:09:43.196 --> 0:09:46.156 the other room and they crawl out of the wreckage. 0:09:46.556 --> 0:09:49.756 Those people have traumatized, Like there's no doubt about that. Like, 0:09:49.836 --> 0:09:53.236 that's that's like, that's like you're in a car accident 0:09:53.796 --> 0:09:56.356 and your car is totaled and they take you out 0:09:56.396 --> 0:09:59.796 with the jaws of life. M right, that's that's your 0:09:59.836 --> 0:10:02.156 that's your near miss, right, that'll stay with you. Has 0:10:02.156 --> 0:10:03.596 that ever happened to you, by the way, run You're 0:10:03.596 --> 0:10:05.316 ever in a car accident like that? No, I have 0:10:05.356 --> 0:10:08.436 not either. I know some people who have a man 0:10:08.836 --> 0:10:12.076 that like dead stays with you. That's like some serious 0:10:12.436 --> 0:10:15.756 I actually have a personal near miss story, which is 0:10:17.476 --> 0:10:20.396 I when I was a kid, And funny enough, this 0:10:20.476 --> 0:10:22.356 is not traumatic for me, but traumatic for my father. 0:10:22.796 --> 0:10:24.236 When I was a kid, I was going hiking with 0:10:24.316 --> 0:10:28.356 my father in the winter on this gorge went in Canada, 0:10:28.436 --> 0:10:32.596 and I'm about seven, and there's a sheer sheet of 0:10:32.596 --> 0:10:34.636 ice down the side of the gorge that runs all 0:10:34.676 --> 0:10:37.636 the way to a frozen not a frozen over, but 0:10:37.716 --> 0:10:43.116 a freezing cold, fast moving river. I slip slide down 0:10:43.116 --> 0:10:46.596 the side of the gorge and come to a halt 0:10:47.316 --> 0:10:52.676 six inches from this fast moving rapids river. Where had 0:10:52.716 --> 0:10:55.436 I gone six more inches, I would be dead. Of course. Wow. 0:10:55.596 --> 0:11:00.076 My dad never got over that. He like, you know, 0:11:00.196 --> 0:11:04.916 he had to repel down the ice and like I'm 0:11:04.916 --> 0:11:07.476 just sitting there six inches from the water on the ice, 0:11:07.596 --> 0:11:10.236 right that was for him, that's a near miss, like 0:11:10.436 --> 0:11:14.396 and he would talk about that, you know, forty years later, 0:11:14.476 --> 0:11:19.476 like it had just happened, right, He's not the remote 0:11:19.516 --> 0:11:23.716 miss though, is the category that really interested in McCurdy 0:11:23.796 --> 0:11:26.836 And he said, if the bombs across a street and 0:11:26.956 --> 0:11:31.876 you survive, your response is not trauma but exhilaration. It's 0:11:31.916 --> 0:11:34.436 like you get a new lease on life. Can I 0:11:34.476 --> 0:11:39.876 read you from McCurdy? Absolutely, when we had been afraid 0:11:39.956 --> 0:11:42.076 that we may panic in an air aid, and when 0:11:42.076 --> 0:11:45.356 it has happened, and when we have exhibited to others 0:11:45.396 --> 0:11:47.876 nothing but a calm exterior and we are now safe. 0:11:48.276 --> 0:11:52.556 The contrast between the previous apprehension and the present relief 0:11:52.636 --> 0:11:56.436 and feeling of security promotes a self confidence that is 0:11:56.476 --> 0:12:00.236 the very father and mother of courage. By the way, 0:12:00.676 --> 0:12:03.916 how much do you low the way these guys right, Oh, brilliant, 0:12:04.036 --> 0:12:07.876 there's no what what like practicing site today. They would 0:12:07.876 --> 0:12:11.436 write that in some gobble. It's like some academic and gobbledegook. 0:12:11.676 --> 0:12:14.236 And he's talking about the father and mother of courage. 0:12:14.236 --> 0:12:18.476 I love that. You know the rest of that passage, 0:12:18.516 --> 0:12:20.676 I think it starts you started in the middle, but 0:12:20.716 --> 0:12:23.876 it starts with we are all not merely liable to fear, 0:12:23.956 --> 0:12:27.036 but we also are prone to being afraid of being afraid, 0:12:27.596 --> 0:12:30.996 which I always love, because I've realized that most of 0:12:31.036 --> 0:12:33.276 their ways in which that I've I've ever been afraid 0:12:33.276 --> 0:12:36.116 of always been the anticipation that was really killing me. 0:12:36.596 --> 0:12:38.876 I think I've very much embraced this ideology because the 0:12:38.916 --> 0:12:42.476 idea of getting through the fear is kind of what J. T. 0:12:42.676 --> 0:12:45.196 McCurdy gets at when he talks about what happens with 0:12:45.236 --> 0:12:48.556 the British. He's basically saying, like, they got through the fear, 0:12:48.796 --> 0:12:51.796 and because the majority of them went through remote misses, 0:12:51.836 --> 0:12:53.996 it's all of a sudden like I don't even need 0:12:54.036 --> 0:12:56.396 to be scared anymore. Yeah, yeah, though I walk through 0:12:56.436 --> 0:12:59.996 the value of death. Oh there goevil, for thou art 0:13:00.036 --> 0:13:03.076 with me. That Tiblical line is about this very phenomenon 0:13:03.636 --> 0:13:07.996 that what it says is that the function of religious 0:13:07.996 --> 0:13:12.476 faith is to turn a near miss to a remote 0:13:12.476 --> 0:13:15.836 a remote miss. Right. It's not that the danger is removed, 0:13:16.116 --> 0:13:18.196 there's you're still walking to the valley of death. But 0:13:18.276 --> 0:13:20.876 the idea is that God's with you, so you know, 0:13:20.916 --> 0:13:23.636 it's it's not as it is no longer an occasion 0:13:23.836 --> 0:13:27.396 for panic and fear. It's something that you can see 0:13:27.396 --> 0:13:31.516 to the other side of. Oh. Absolutely, that's my church moment. Too. Hey, hey, 0:13:31.756 --> 0:13:35.116 we in here man, it's Tuesday. So so let me 0:13:35.156 --> 0:13:37.276 ask you this. So we're at we're at the end 0:13:37.316 --> 0:13:40.156 of the bombing. Um, how does the courage of the 0:13:40.236 --> 0:13:43.156 English factor into the German plan? Because their goal was 0:13:43.196 --> 0:13:46.756 to break the English and when it didn't happen, how 0:13:46.796 --> 0:13:50.996 did courage factor into that plan? Well? So this actually 0:13:51.036 --> 0:13:54.276 I talk a little about this in UM the bombom mafia. 0:13:54.356 --> 0:14:00.196 Oh nice, like the plug. Yes, that it's super interesting. 0:14:00.396 --> 0:14:05.236 The Germans also assume that the British will crumble. That's 0:14:05.236 --> 0:14:08.316 why they're doing this thing. No one had ever done 0:14:08.356 --> 0:14:12.956 this in the history of warfare, before large scale aerial 0:14:13.196 --> 0:14:17.876 bombing of civilian populations. It was considered to be first 0:14:17.876 --> 0:14:20.676 of all, no one had bombers before. But in you know, 0:14:20.676 --> 0:14:22.556 in the in the wars of the nineteenth century, you 0:14:22.636 --> 0:14:26.076 fought armies. You didn't you didn't slaughter civilians. But the 0:14:26.116 --> 0:14:28.676 Germans were like, oh, we think that if we bomb 0:14:28.716 --> 0:14:31.436 the civilians, we'll bring the entire country to its needs. 0:14:31.516 --> 0:14:34.956 We won't even have to fight their army. Doesn't happen, right, 0:14:35.316 --> 0:14:37.516 Brits come through, Fine, then what do the Brits do? 0:14:38.156 --> 0:14:42.396 The Brits don't learn their own lesson. They have just 0:14:42.596 --> 0:14:45.556 been through an experience where they where people have proven 0:14:45.596 --> 0:14:47.276 to be a lot tougher and more resilient than they 0:14:47.276 --> 0:14:50.556 would have imagined, and then they turn around forget that 0:14:50.956 --> 0:14:53.476 and try the same failed experiment on the Germans. And 0:14:53.516 --> 0:14:57.076 when confronted on this question the head of the British 0:14:57.116 --> 0:15:00.476 Bomber Command, his answer was basically, well, I don't think 0:15:00.516 --> 0:15:03.956 Germans are as tough as English people, which is like 0:15:05.116 --> 0:15:08.996 such an obnoxious British thing to say. He couldn't wrap 0:15:09.196 --> 0:15:11.516 his mind around the fact that we were dealing here 0:15:11.516 --> 0:15:15.756 with something fundamental about human beings, which is that our 0:15:15.796 --> 0:15:21.636 powers of courage and resilience, even foolhearty powers of courage 0:15:21.636 --> 0:15:25.596 and resilience, are just way more considerable than we would 0:15:25.596 --> 0:15:29.156 have imagined. We're not rational actors. Rationally, if you are 0:15:29.196 --> 0:15:32.236 living in London during the Blitz of nineteen forty, you 0:15:32.396 --> 0:15:36.356 should leave London? Are you kidding me? They're like, there's 0:15:36.396 --> 0:15:38.836 just no reason for sticking around, and you have people 0:15:38.836 --> 0:15:42.836 stick around. They're not rational. Yeah, it makes me think 0:15:42.956 --> 0:15:46.196 of the earliest days of the pandemic. Yeah, if we 0:15:46.236 --> 0:15:48.556 talk about the fear that I had early on and 0:15:48.596 --> 0:15:50.996 the way that I feel now we know that those 0:15:51.036 --> 0:15:54.156 feelings are markedly different, because, like, if you go back 0:15:54.196 --> 0:15:56.556 to the British and everything you said about what the 0:15:56.556 --> 0:15:58.876 British thought was going to happen to them and the 0:15:58.956 --> 0:16:02.716 ways in which they prepared at the beginning, very similarly, 0:16:02.876 --> 0:16:04.796 a lot of us were doing that same things at 0:16:04.836 --> 0:16:08.476 the beginning of the pandemic. But it feels like in 0:16:08.516 --> 0:16:12.116 this case, especially if we start looking at the COVID statistics. 0:16:12.156 --> 0:16:14.036 So at the time of this taping, out of a 0:16:14.036 --> 0:16:18.996 population of about three hundred twenty million Americans, yeah, over 0:16:19.076 --> 0:16:23.556 forty million Americans have been affected by COVID nineteen and 0:16:23.716 --> 0:16:26.596 of that over forty million, about seven hundred and twenty 0:16:26.596 --> 0:16:30.156 thousand have died. So it's about a two percent mortality rate, 0:16:30.476 --> 0:16:33.796 which means the majority of us have been experiencing remote 0:16:33.796 --> 0:16:37.236 misses here. Two hundred and eighty million people are fine, 0:16:37.316 --> 0:16:38.796 I'm one of the two hundred and eighty million. I 0:16:39.036 --> 0:16:40.316 don't think I got it, or if I got it, 0:16:40.316 --> 0:16:43.276 I didn't even know I had it. So like you're you, 0:16:43.276 --> 0:16:46.756 You're right, the overwhelming number of Americans are people who 0:16:46.796 --> 0:16:52.756 had remote misses here. Yeah, I think that. Unfortunately, because 0:16:52.756 --> 0:16:55.636 there were so many remote misses that there was a 0:16:55.716 --> 0:16:58.476 higher amount of preventable deaths that probably could have been 0:16:58.516 --> 0:17:01.836 missed if the people that had remote misses had continued 0:17:01.876 --> 0:17:04.516 the same practices. Now, I don't want this to become 0:17:04.516 --> 0:17:07.476 a conversation of everybody getting basket to get immunizations. You know, 0:17:07.556 --> 0:17:10.956 I understand that those are personal decisions, and I've done 0:17:10.956 --> 0:17:14.876 both because I feel like responsible for my community. But 0:17:15.236 --> 0:17:17.356 a lot of people haven't. And I think it's because 0:17:17.396 --> 0:17:21.156 of this phenomenon of invulnerability. I e. COVID has come. 0:17:21.316 --> 0:17:23.556 It did not get me, it didn't get the majority 0:17:23.556 --> 0:17:25.596 of us. So we're good. Yeah, you don't have to 0:17:25.716 --> 0:17:29.916 be Yes. It's funny. I think it's a perfect illustration 0:17:30.436 --> 0:17:34.236 of what McCarty is talking about. Let's compare two actors here. 0:17:35.156 --> 0:17:38.956 There is the person in East London in nineteen forty 0:17:39.036 --> 0:17:42.996 joining the Blitz who has observed five people on their 0:17:43.036 --> 0:17:48.236 street had their houses destroyed by German bombs, and you know, 0:17:48.476 --> 0:17:52.236 five of them died, but their house is still standing 0:17:52.476 --> 0:17:56.116 and their whole family is still alive. McCurdy would say, 0:17:56.156 --> 0:18:01.196 is that person is a remote miss and they're like, whatever, 0:18:01.316 --> 0:18:03.676 I'm fine, I survived, And they're the ones who are 0:18:03.716 --> 0:18:06.076 going to the pub, and they're the ones who are 0:18:06.156 --> 0:18:08.636 going dancing on a Saturday night, And those are the 0:18:08.676 --> 0:18:12.356 ones who just went about business as usual. Now, that 0:18:12.476 --> 0:18:17.436 person's response to the Blitz is probably best termed as 0:18:17.476 --> 0:18:20.316 irrational in that they're not out of the woods. The 0:18:20.356 --> 0:18:23.476 Germans are still coming night after night, but their psychological 0:18:23.516 --> 0:18:28.156 interpretation of their experience is one of invulnerability. How is 0:18:28.196 --> 0:18:31.436 that person any different from the person who declines to 0:18:31.476 --> 0:18:35.676 get vaccinated today? I think it's exactly the same. Yeah, 0:18:35.796 --> 0:18:41.116 only only one difference. The person joined the Blitz who 0:18:41.156 --> 0:18:46.156 act at all, and we know whose response was I'm invulnerable, 0:18:46.196 --> 0:18:48.356 I'm fine, I'm gonna go back to work is considered 0:18:48.396 --> 0:18:52.596 to be heroic and a hero. The unvaccinated person today 0:18:52.956 --> 0:18:56.556 is considered to be a social shame now for good reasons. 0:18:56.956 --> 0:19:01.036 But it's just funny about how a different circumstances, in 0:19:01.236 --> 0:19:05.556 different times, we have very different responses to people who 0:19:05.596 --> 0:19:09.636 have this kind of psychological reaction of invulnerability. They cannot 0:19:09.716 --> 0:19:13.116 be heroes or they can be chumps. So the reason 0:19:13.156 --> 0:19:14.516 why I think that is, and you can help me 0:19:14.556 --> 0:19:16.036 with this, but the reason why I think that is 0:19:16.036 --> 0:19:22.236 is because bombing feels more random than avoiding COVID. Avoiding 0:19:22.276 --> 0:19:27.836 bombing feels more random than avoiding COVID because with COVID, 0:19:27.996 --> 0:19:30.156 there's a lot of people that can do a lot 0:19:30.236 --> 0:19:32.556 of things, right, Like, there's studies that show that wearing 0:19:32.556 --> 0:19:35.636 a mask helps prevent the spread of COVID. There's studies 0:19:35.636 --> 0:19:39.396 that show that getting immunized helps prevent the spread of COVID. 0:19:39.436 --> 0:19:42.996 There's studies that show that social distance helps prevent the 0:19:42.996 --> 0:19:45.196 spread of COVID. All of these things that help prevent 0:19:45.196 --> 0:19:47.636 the spread. And there's people that at every juncture have 0:19:47.676 --> 0:19:51.076 avoided those three things and still not gotten sick. And 0:19:52.116 --> 0:19:54.156 I think those people that are in the remote miss 0:19:54.196 --> 0:19:58.596 category are somehow bolstering the numbers of people that feel 0:19:58.636 --> 0:20:01.836 invulnerable in a way that's actually spreading harm in a 0:20:01.876 --> 0:20:05.116 way that the bombing does it. Yeah, necessarily, because it's 0:20:05.156 --> 0:20:06.876 still you could go to the pub and you could 0:20:06.916 --> 0:20:09.156 still get bombed, even though you're not afraid, but you 0:20:09.156 --> 0:20:11.596 could still get bombed. Yeah. The other aspect of this 0:20:11.676 --> 0:20:15.396 is what is your social responsibility here? You could argue 0:20:15.436 --> 0:20:19.356 that in nineteen forty during the blitz, you are actually 0:20:19.956 --> 0:20:25.596 not reacting with panic. Is a fulfilling your social responsibility, 0:20:25.916 --> 0:20:29.196 that it's a good thing that you behave in that 0:20:29.956 --> 0:20:33.836 mildly irrational way because you're in the middle of a war. 0:20:33.916 --> 0:20:35.476 You have to fight, I mean, you have to sacrifice. 0:20:36.316 --> 0:20:41.676 Social responsibility in terms of a contagious disease is the 0:20:41.716 --> 0:20:47.756 opposite that behaving with caution and being appropriately fearful is 0:20:47.836 --> 0:20:51.236 part of the way that we end diseases. So you 0:20:51.356 --> 0:20:54.436 end a war by being irrational, you end up pandemic 0:20:54.516 --> 0:20:58.956 by being rational. I love that. Right. You can even 0:20:58.996 --> 0:21:03.356 go further and just say that no soldier in wartime 0:21:04.476 --> 0:21:09.876 can do their job without being irrational. It's nuts, right, 0:21:10.516 --> 0:21:13.636 say more, Well, you can't. You're asking someone to go 0:21:13.676 --> 0:21:18.276 out and like risk their life for some I mean 0:21:18.356 --> 0:21:21.396 meaningful cause, but like it's still abstract to them. Like 0:21:21.516 --> 0:21:24.236 the rational response to being asked to fight in a 0:21:24.316 --> 0:21:28.876 war is to go crazy and get like sent to 0:21:28.996 --> 0:21:32.436 a psychiatric hospel for the That's actually the rational response. 0:21:32.556 --> 0:21:35.836 But people don't see that, you know, I'm glad they don't. 0:21:36.196 --> 0:21:39.756 They go through some experience in wartime believe that they 0:21:39.756 --> 0:21:42.676 are a in the remote miss category and that's where 0:21:42.756 --> 0:21:47.556 courage comes from. But so then it's courage irrational. Of course, 0:21:47.596 --> 0:21:52.676 it is Yeah, the rational thing, under any circumstances to 0:21:52.756 --> 0:21:57.396 run knowing that I guess the question that I'm really 0:21:57.476 --> 0:21:59.996 kind of that we're kind of like kind of circling. 0:22:01.196 --> 0:22:07.316 Is understanding when courage is helpful, Yeah, and courage needs 0:22:07.316 --> 0:22:12.836 to be restrict yeah, Or making it clear to people 0:22:13.276 --> 0:22:16.996 who don't behave appropriately during a pandemic that the behavior 0:22:17.036 --> 0:22:21.356 that they're exhibiting is not courageous. It may feelgeous or 0:22:21.516 --> 0:22:25.796 come from the same psychological place as wartime courage, but 0:22:25.916 --> 0:22:30.876 it's not. It's and I This has been one of 0:22:30.916 --> 0:22:35.596 my frustrations with the messaging around things like vaccination in 0:22:35.596 --> 0:22:38.956 this country is that it's been too much about the 0:22:39.036 --> 0:22:43.156 self and not enough about society. The argument should be 0:22:43.276 --> 0:22:46.236 very simple. When we say to someone you should get vaccinated. 0:22:46.556 --> 0:22:49.116 The wrong argument is you should get vaccinated because it 0:22:49.116 --> 0:22:53.476 could save your life. Well, most people are. They have 0:22:53.516 --> 0:22:56.236 a remote misattitude about that. It's like saying you should 0:22:56.276 --> 0:22:57.756 leave London because it will say their life. Now, I'm 0:22:57.756 --> 0:23:00.916 not leaving London as my home. The right answer is 0:23:01.196 --> 0:23:05.196 you have an obligation to other people who are more 0:23:05.276 --> 0:23:09.356 vulnerable than you to get vaccinated. I thought, you know 0:23:09.756 --> 0:23:13.716 things the other day that the single most powerful thing 0:23:13.756 --> 0:23:17.036 that I read about the reason to get vaccinated were 0:23:17.156 --> 0:23:21.596 these personal testimonies from nurses who are describing what they've 0:23:21.636 --> 0:23:26.276 been through working in intensive care units during COVID, that 0:23:26.756 --> 0:23:29.556 seeing people die day and day out, working in these 0:23:29.596 --> 0:23:34.356 insane shifts, being completely burnt out. We are asking of 0:23:34.556 --> 0:23:38.476 people who you know, at the not the bottom of 0:23:38.556 --> 0:23:41.556 the healthcare food chain, but pretty close to it. We're 0:23:41.596 --> 0:23:47.156 asking them to perform these unbelievably heroic acts. And if 0:23:47.156 --> 0:23:50.796 you don't get vaccinated, you're making the life of this 0:23:50.996 --> 0:23:56.276 group of unbelievably heroic people a whole lot harder. Why 0:23:56.276 --> 0:24:00.796 would you do that? Right? That's the argument, Right, So 0:24:01.196 --> 0:24:04.396 let's take it off the plane of let's acknowledge these 0:24:04.436 --> 0:24:08.956 people feel invulnerable. Yes, you feel invulnerable. Fine, it's not 0:24:09.196 --> 0:24:14.356 about that, though. It's about you're making someone else's life miserable, 0:24:15.316 --> 0:24:17.756 and that's not what we do when we're in a 0:24:17.796 --> 0:24:21.276 civilized society. Can you think of some examples of times 0:24:21.276 --> 0:24:25.116 where community successfully went from eye to we in ways 0:24:25.196 --> 0:24:28.316 that we can learn from in trying to do that 0:24:28.436 --> 0:24:31.796 in this moment? Now? Yeah, well there's a bunch of examples, 0:24:31.836 --> 0:24:35.836