WEBVTT - Understanding The Digital Age, Tech In The Pandemic 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.479 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.000 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, one of the issues, 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:25.159 or one of the topics that has really come to 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:28.120 the four once again as a result of this pandemic 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:31.560 has been the absolute central role of technology in all 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:35.040 of our lives, the digital digitalization, if you will, of 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:37.560 our everyday lives, if you think about working from home, 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.479 schooling from home, it's just kind of really accelerated the 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.920 embrace of digital technology, the upsides as well as the downsides. 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:47.680 And it seemed like a great time check in with 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:50.440 our net guest. Next guest Brett Smith. He's a president 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:54.400 of Microsoft and just today out with them, I guess 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.960 the paperback version of his New York Times best selling 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:00.520 book entitled Tools and Weapons, The Promise and the Peril 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.120 of the Digital Age. Brad, thanks so much for joining 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:05.640 us here. It's really topical here, as I think you know, 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.360 a lot of people are kind of rethinking the role 0:01:08.400 --> 0:01:11.520 of technology in their lives. What is kind of your 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:16.480 takeaway over the last eighteen months of how maybe people use, 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:22.240 interact and and think about technology. Well, things have changed 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:25.039 so quickly. It's why my co author Caroline Brown and 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.760 I added three new chapters to the paperback edition of 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.560 the book, one of them to address the question you 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:34.560 just ask, how have we seen the pandemic impact the 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.960 use of technology and which of these changes are likely 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.240 to really stick with us? And last and you know, 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:45.119 we're certainly seeing you know, technology being put to use 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.320 in a variety of new ways. It's creating more flexibility 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:51.200 for us, um, the ability to see a doctor through 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:54.880 a telehealth service, the ability of a sick child, perhaps 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:57.480 to be able to stay connected to a classroom with 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:01.160 with distance learning. Uh, they of so many of us, 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.760 you know, to work in more flexible ways, including on 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.640 the road or from home. But we've also seen other challenges. 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:13.119 In part, we're seeing new cybersecurity attacks because this technology 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.600 is so ubiquitous, UM. And in other ways, we're just 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:20.840 seeing the digital divide almost exacerbated. It's as if people 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:24.040 who lack broadband access are living in the nineteen nineties 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.080 while the rest of us are living in the twenties. 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.440 And that is a divide that is going to exacerbate 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.440 every other divide in society if we don't move faster 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:36.799 to address it. You know, over and over executives we 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.600 speak to say they're really worried about the skills that 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:44.440 this workforce has and whether it's ready for an environment 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:50.040 where technology rains. You have been working through Microsoft and 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:53.920 linked in to rescale and upscale people. Companies like JP 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.160 Morgan have been working with cities to get more people 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:01.200 into this workforce. Do you have a proscripection? Is there 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:05.120 any cure you can see two people entering this workforce 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.399 with skills that they need. Well, I do think there's 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.640 a prescription, and I think it's going to take a 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:16.639 societally wide commitment, UH to really put that prescription into action. 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:18.679 And we and it's why we devote a lot of 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.800 attention to this in our book, both as a specific 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.960 topic around the tech talent gap for all of us, 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:29.560 but also in specific areas like cybersecurity skills. We're seeing 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:34.480 clear shortages, say of cybersecurity professionals and digital skills. More broadly, 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.280 UM what it's going to take, I think, is for 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:39.680 all of us to lean in UM, those of us 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.360 in the tech sector. For a company like Microsoft and 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:46.119 the linked In service that we operate, there's a tremendous opportunity. 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:51.240 We're pursuing increasingly with nonprofits and others to use online 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.760 learning to help fill the gap. But that's not going 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:58.760 to be sufficient by itself. I think employers need to reinvest, 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.040 increase our spending and the skilling of the people who 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:05.920 work for us. I think we have a huge opportunity 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:10.440 as a country to do more with community colleges UH, 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:12.960 and that's one thing the White House is now focused on. 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:17.039 The Congress and the Infrastructure Bill is addressing. UM. This 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:20.080 is a moment where we can just create so many 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:23.920 opportunities for more people, not by asking them to get 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.800 a no new four year college degree, but take a 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.360 course or two at a community college, or just spend 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:32.599 more time as part of their work to add to 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:37.040 their skill set. So, you know, Brad, cybersecurity is obviously 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:40.440 it's a big issue, and I think when Microsoft itself 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:45.200 UH was the subject of a hack in December, the 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:49.599 Solar Winds attack, that really got people's attention if the gods, 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.600 the smart folks and Microsoft are susceptible here, how about 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.800 the rest of us? Here? Tell us what actually happened? 0:04:56.120 --> 0:05:00.760 And you know what was the response from Microsoft? Well, 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:04.080 it's the first chapter now of the paperback edition of 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:06.240 the book. Can we tell the inside story of really 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.880 the cyberslew thing that it took not just at Microsoft, 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:12.680 but some of the other really sophisticated cybersecurity firms like 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:16.160 fire Eye to put the pieces together. You know, we 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:18.719 now know that this was an attack launched by the 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:23.440 Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency. It targeted major parts of the 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:28.920 United States government, many tech companies. It targeted foreign companies 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:34.839 and governments. Uh. And it was executed with great persistence, sophistication, 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:38.839 and scale. It was based on a disruption of the 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:44.479 software supply chain, planting malware into a legitimate company, Solar 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:47.480 Winds and its product. UH. And you know what we 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:50.320 then talk about are the lessons that we all need 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:53.719 to take away from this. It starts with recognizing the 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:58.280 sophistication and magnitude of the problem. It then leads to solutions. 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.520 Some of these are I think really on our shoulders 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.600 for a company like Microsoft, and we're increasing our investment, 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:09.680 and we are and will do more to address this UM, 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:12.080 but we all need to work together. There was a 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:14.240 meeting at the White House two weeks ago. It brought 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:18.440 together not just tech companies, but critical infrastructure companies and 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:22.880 insurance companies and colleges and universities. UM. We're going to 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:27.600 need to pursue more information sharing. UM. Companies like ours 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:29.800 are going to need to report more to the government, 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:33.520 and the government, as it has started, is now sharing 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:36.839 more information across the government as a whole, so we 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:40.279 don't end up with pieces of information trapped in these 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:44.440 different information silos. Brad, what worries you most in the 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:47.640 coming months. We've seen major hacks since solar winds. We 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.560 hear of major things that could happen that can disrupt 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:53.719 the entire economy. What are you concerned about in the 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:58.000 coming months. Well, I think the biggest thing we should 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.120 worry about is that will you look at this crisis 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.039 and do too little to address it? Um? You know, 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:06.640 people talk about, you know, will we face someday a 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:10.480 digital pearl harbor or a digital nine eleven. Um. We 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:14.320 have it, you know, in our ability to avoid that 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:18.080 kind of day, but only if we heed these lessons 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:21.880 and all work together. And you know this is not 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.000 just for big tech companies or people in government. It 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:29.440 means for every business deploying the in many cases cybersecurity 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:34.040 protections they've already bought but haven't yet installed or used. Uh. 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:37.280 It means for consumers that we turn on your two 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:40.160 factor authentication and the like. So we all have a 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.640 role we need to play. Hey, Brat, thank you so 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:44.760 much for joining us. To really appreciate getting your thoughts 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:48.080 and comments. Here Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, on his 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.160 updated content of his book entitled Tools and Weapons, The 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:54.240 Promise and the Peril of the Digital Age, now out 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:57.920 in paperback with three new chapters. So take a look 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:04.400 at that. Well, here we are again, right after Labor Day, 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:07.120 and so folks maybe coming back to work for the 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.480 first time since the pandemic began. Certainly on Wall Street, 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:12.000 there's a lot of talk of that being kind of 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:14.440 a you know, a soft line in the sand, if 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:16.720 you will, when a lot of the c was one 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:19.400 of their folks back in the office at least temporarily. 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:22.560 Let's get the latest update on that. Jenny Seraine, financial 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.400 reporter for Bloomberg News, joins us on the phone from 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:29.600 New York City. So, Jenny again, big big talk earlier 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.480 in the year, How are the Wall Street firms delivering 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.080 in terms of getting their folks back to work? Yeah, 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:37.920 you know, I think honestly a lot of the biggest 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:40.959 firms have brought a good majority of their workers back. 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:43.440 And the thing is, it's just not the way they 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:45.439 wanted it to be back. You know, people are in masks, 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:49.240 there's no um, you know, no congregating and meeting rooms. 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.320 It's just, um, maybe not the big fireworks and the 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:54.440 big return to normal that a lot of these CEOs 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.960 have been promising for so much of this year. Um, 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:58.760 and that's been a big disappointment. And I think you've 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:00.719 seen a lot of smaller firms actually just say, you 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:02.480 know what, We're just gonna wait. We're gonna wait till 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:04.760 we can go back without masks. We're gonna wait till 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.200 we can go back without social distancing. UM. So you 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:10.440 kind of see this, this growing divide. The divergence is 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:14.280 also spectacular. You see Goldman Sachs bankers back in the 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.440 office since you know, June or July. Really you see 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:19.559 City Group having folks come in a couple of days 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:23.400 a week. You see Morgan Stanley about fifty percent I've 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.080 been hearing is back in the office compared to what 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:31.079 across the financial services industry. Jenny even hinting record numbers 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:34.280 without coming back. Why do they have to? I think 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:36.839 so much of it is just these CEOs wanting their 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:39.880 folks back. They seem to think that culture is really 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.240 made in the office. Um. A lot of times they 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:44.280 also point to like the junior bankers and the need 0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:48.160 for younger talent to have that in person mentoring and training. UM. 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:52.920 So you just it's kind of a definitely a culture question. Um. 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:55.679 And you know, we don't see that in other big industries. 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:57.040 You don't see that in tech, you don't see that 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.839 in autos. So it's definitely a very unique industry in 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.000 ms of Wall Street just being really adamant that they 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:05.040 want these folks back at their desks. You know remember 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.839 Lloyd blank find years ago saying that Goldman Sachs is 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:13.240 not a financial institution, it's a tech company. Um. And 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:15.960 so I think about the workforces of Global Wall Street, 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:18.439 a lot of them. I'm not sure what the percentage 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.040 is about. A big, big percentage is our tech workers 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:25.040 and the competitors for those workers are Google and Facebook. 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:27.440 And if they're Google and Facebook are bringing their people back, 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:29.719 I would think that Goldman, Sachs and Morgan Stanley that 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.200 have a hard time bringing their tech workers back. What 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:35.520 are you hearing? Yeah, that's actually absolutely true. What was 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.920 interesting was we Um. We interviewed Um, the person in 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.400 charge of tech workers at City Group and their trading 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:44.600 and investment banking divisions, and he actually was saying that 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:48.200 because they're CEO, Jane Fraser has been so so adamant 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:50.160 that she's going to be open to remote work and 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:53.080 Um has really been softer stance on the whole return 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:56.040 to office question that he's actually had way more success 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:59.640 in hiring and recruiting more technology workers. So you definitely 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.160 see the divergence, and you see these banks kind of 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:04.920 thinking strategically now, like, can we, you know, get better 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:07.560 talent because we can be a little softer than maybe 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.040 the Goldman's or the JP Morgan's of the world. Jenny, 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:12.480 is this forcing or at least compelling banks to be 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:16.280 looking outside of New York for talent? Yeah, you know, 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.880 that's actually a really interesting element of all this. They've 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.160 been very adamant that they want to move to places 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.480 like Texas and Florida. Um, partially because you know, their 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.600 workers want to live in those places, and partially because 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:30.160 it's lower cost office space. UM. But now they're coming 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:32.600 up on the fact that those places have much lower 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:36.040 vaccination rates, and you know, trying to force folks back 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:38.760 in in places where vaccine rates are so so low 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.280 has created this very unique tension that these banks are 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:45.920 having to work through and deal with. UM that you just, yeah, 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:47.839 you don't really see that in other industries as much, 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:49.719 where they've been a little bit more flexible about the 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.240 work from home life. What's been the pushback, if any 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:56.559 of the reaction from the workers themselves. Do they want 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:58.920 to be back in the office. If I'm a banker, trader, 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.000 research analyst, I want to be back in the office. Yeah, 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:04.800 it's I think it's diverging. UM. You know a lot 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.120 of traders, I think they are wanting to be back 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:11.240 in the office these days, simply because it's UM. What 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:13.880 we hear is that on slow trading days, people in 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:15.960 the office, you know, they make more trades. There's that 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.320 water cooler chat, and there's there's just a little bit 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:22.000 more activity on slower days when everybody's together. Um. That 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.560 being said, almost every survey that comes out says that 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:26.880 workers just want flexibility. You know, they want to work 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:28.520 from home a few days a week, they want to 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:29.960 be in the office a few days a week, and 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.880 they want to decide their schedules. Um. So it's it's 0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:36.120 definitely Um, there's a big gulf in between what folks 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.000 want and what you know ultimately might happen, given these 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:44.320 CEOs are aggressively wanting folks back. Um, but it's definitely interesting. Yeah, 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.000 it really is. Will certainly stay on top of it 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.520 going forward because they are big, big customers of Bloomberg, 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:55.280 very important to Bloomberg. Jennifer Seraine, financial reporter for Bloomberg News. 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.439 Again her story Wall Street limps into post labor day 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:02.360 return and it's derailed. I delta so really fascinating. Storian Shinale, 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.559 you know what, as well as anybody you covered this beat, 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:06.920 do you think it's just gonna be a gradual thing? 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.440 You know, it's a very it's a very tough time 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.480 on Wall Street. The question is do you get paid 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.320 more for coming in? Paul? Yeah, yeah, I know there's 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.559 definitely an issue. Uh, you know, if you can dine 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.320 in New York. I think, as Mr Gorman from Morgan 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:20.360 Stanley said, if you can eat out in New York, 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:26.240 you can certainly come into the office. Well, Friday's disappointing 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.680 jobs report for a lot of people suggest that it 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:32.360 will provide some air cover, if you will, for the 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.520 FED to delay tapering. UH talks to the end of 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:37.880 this year, maybe even into next year, and I might 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.200 provide some support for this market. Let's check in with 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:43.520 Brian Vendig. He's president of m JP Wealth Advisors. Say 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.640 about seven fifty million dollars in assets under management located 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:49.559 in Westport, Connecticut. So, Brian, that seems to be the 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.800 narrative that we're hearing. And in the wake of that 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.360 job's report, is that something you supported. Do you think 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.480 the Fed now has some opportunity to maybe withhold on 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:02.080 some of that tapering at least for the short I 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:06.440 definitely think so. I think, uh the weekend jobs report 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.200 and also just the fact that you know, it seems 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:13.520 like UM it is taking longer for UM job recovery 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:15.920 to happen within the United States. I think just due 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.600 to the high productivity numbers investments that we've seen in 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.360 technology that companies have made, and now that UM we're 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.720 not seeing these these exceeding expectations on the jobs report, 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.440 I think causes the SECT to want to be more patient, 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.960 UH to wait till the next job's report to see 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.000 how the month of September goes, especially with schools reopening 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:40.640 and UH enhanced an extended unemployment benefits expiring UM, and 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.680 that as a result, it pushes back the tapering timeline 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.000 probably towards later on in the year or the beginning 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.080 of next year. I think investors were expecting that in 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:54.000 the September meeting UM those tapering announcements would start sooner, 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.320 and as a result, UM, the fact that it's being 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:59.760 pushed out is providing some optimism from an ass evaluation. 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:04.400 For Rector, the taper is such a big conversation here, 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.560 but I don't think what's as flushed out is how 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:11.560 much is that taper going to set certain markets off 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:16.720 the current course that they're on. I totally agree that 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:18.680 that's a very fair point. I think we're in this 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.880 very unique environment where we have a high level of 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:27.440 fiscal spending paired with monetary policy, and I think, really 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:30.600 what investors are more concerned about is the dot plot 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.200 with interest rates. I think the tapering is something that 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:38.680 probably should happen because there is a expanding GDP recovery. 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:41.880 There are sectors that are coming back. Granted things are 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.880 taking a little bit longer due to the impacts of 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:50.440 of delta, as we've seen other institutions lowering GDP forecast 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:54.680 for the year. So I think tapering is a is 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.600 a situational predicament that we're in trying to get a 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.120 sense of where the feed is going to be going 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:05.760 for that longer term monetary policy decision, which is really 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:10.720 critical around interest rates. Alright, So given that background, brand, 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.520 what are the sectors that you guys uh think present 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:18.600 the best opportunities right now? Sure, I mean we have 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:23.400 been trying to stay as fairly balanced between value versus growth, 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.840 not trying to take one side of that argument, especially 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.320 because of rebalancing and things that are going on in 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.720 the global economy as we saw with inflation and interest 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:38.120 rate concerns. But then came back off a little bit 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.720 and now we're talking we're thinking about longer term interest 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:43.200 rates going up again over the next twelve months. So 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.280 we still like the cyclical side of the trade with 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:52.640 UM financials and basic materials and industrials and even real 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:56.560 estate paired with you know, sticking with some of those 0:16:56.560 --> 0:17:00.240 technology companies that are just pervasive to our society. Idea 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.640 is helping us support data integration you know five G 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:08.479 you know, as well as UM software in the cloud 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.720 to run not only UH your business, but also just 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:14.159 to help the support running your life. And what are 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:17.320 you looking at in terms of the delta variant and 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.720 what what could derail some of the current pricing we've 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:24.840 seen in the market. How bad does it have to 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.560 be that will actually start to see it show up 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:31.919 in the stock market? You're you're right. I mean, the 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.920 market has been unbelievably resistant as different things have come 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.960 up over the course of trying to move forward from 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.040 the impact of the pandemic last year. But I think 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:45.080 the things that are important to keep in mind it's 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:49.320 more than just the variant story. I mean, technically, policy 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:53.280 mistakes both from the Fed and Washington could definitely disrupt 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:54.800 the market. We have to keep in mind that this 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:58.240 month and only is that a seasonally tough months to 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.720 the market, but we also have conversations happening in Washington 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:05.680 on taxes and additional spending with the said meeting. Um, 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.920 we also know that there's other variants that are unfortunately 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.800 around the corner, and we need support obviously from from 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.480 science to continue to lead us out of this with 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:18.280 you know, a debate on boosters and then at a 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:20.480 lessons being able to get vaccinated. So I think it's 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:24.880 a combination of several variables that if they were all 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:27.840 to coalesce, you know, over the next couple of months, 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:30.480 definitely can cause some investor concern as we move into 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:34.680 next year. However, I think the fact that decision makers 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:38.679 are trying to take a thoughtful and gradual approach. I 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:41.720 think our friends in Washington are going to come up 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:44.800 with uh, some agreements that aren't going to be as 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:48.480 drastic as what we've heard on the campaign trail for taxes. 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.240 I think this will continue to help to support the markets. 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.600 And also have to keep in mind that earnings has 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.720 been extremely solid for publicly traded companies and that looks 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.480 for next year with companies still trying to rebuild supply chains, 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.480 getting through these labor shortages, these are all things that 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.440 still set up for I think still some more room 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:12.160 for growth. Brian just real quickly thirty seconds. Uh, bitcoin crypto, 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:13.800 do your clients ask you about it? And if so, 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:18.320 what do you say? Absolutely? It is it is something 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.240 that clients do ask us about. UM. We we try 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:24.840 to educate on different ways to get exposure to digital assets. 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.600 You don't always have to you know, own the coin 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:30.680 per se. But I would just say right now, UM, 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:32.760 I know there's some obviously some news coming out with 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:37.320 with countries adopting bitcoin as as a currency. We still 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.640 believe right now it's a it's a speculative investment. Uh. 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.400 And and we're looking for more productive uses in society 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.480 moving forward. All right, Brian, thanks so much for joining us. 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.160 To really appreciate you taking the time. Brian Vendig, he's 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:53.560 president m JP Wealth Advisors, getting his thoughts on these 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:58.960 markets here, so suggesting that still constructive on the markets broadly, uh, 0:19:59.160 --> 0:20:02.480 defined has some sectors there that are of interest, but 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:05.560 on bitcoin, stand a little bit cautious here, at least 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:12.240 at this early stage. This is Bloomberg. Well, we look 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:16.119 down to Washington. President Biden and his administration administration have 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:20.600 approximate four trillion dollars of spending bills oneing other ways 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:22.920 through Congress. We got the fiscal stimulus and then the 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:27.200 broader spending bill. Let's get the latest on when those 0:20:27.240 --> 0:20:29.520 bills could be passed, will they be passed? To check 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.960 in with Eric Watson, congressional reporter for Bloomberg News, joining 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:35.800 us on the phone from Washington. So, Eric, we had 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:40.439 the fifty billion dollar infrastructure plan passed. Now there's this 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:44.760 other three and a half billion dollar spending bill. The 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:46.840 question for a lot of people is do they have 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.560 to be linked? Do they have to be passed jointly? 0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:52.479 And if so, does that create a problem. Yeah, So 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:56.920 the instruction bill, it's passed the stup, it's waiting final 0:20:56.960 --> 0:21:00.399 approval in the House. Progressive the liberal part of the 0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:03.880 Cry Party have said that they would not support the 0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:06.320 passage of that and they would re bail if they 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:09.000 do not get, you know, passage first of the three 0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:12.720 point five trillion dollar social spending measure, which also has 0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:16.080 tax increases on the wealthy incorporations. So they've made this link. 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:20.679 There was a big battle in August where progressives lost 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:23.240 basically the moderates. Who's who got to guarantee from how 0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:24.960 speaker to answer to policy? They would be a vote 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:28.920 by September. Come hell, or high water on the UH 0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:32.119 Infrastructure bill. So right now, the committees this week are 0:21:32.119 --> 0:21:34.119 working behind the scenes trying to get together on the 0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:37.640 policy provisions, the exact languages, exact policies for that bigger bill. 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:40.240 But it's it's it's a real uh, it's a real challenge, 0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:42.320 and I think the apple cart was a bit upset 0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:45.080 by Joe Manson the Modern Senator last week. You said 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:47.119 we do a pause on that bigger bill, and that's 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:49.520 raising a lot of questions about all of this. Yeah, 0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:53.359 speaking of mansion as well, what are parts of this bill, 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.000 the part of the three point five trillion dollar plan 0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:59.640 they may not make it to see the letter day. Well, 0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:01.959 one thing know we've we've thought about is that they 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:04.119 could make a cut it down, you know, two or 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:07.720