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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I can just about that action

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing out spect. We're sitting up a cash toto. That's

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Speaker 1: all we see. Most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go twin. That's incredible, big bank money.

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Speaker 2: All right. It is just the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 1: You want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is up? Everybody? Welcome to the Action and Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and today is our seventh

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Speaker 1: annual Experts Guide to Fantasy Football. And what better fantasy

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Speaker 1: analysts to do an expert guys with than the expert himself,

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Speaker 1: mister Sean kern Er. Shawn, congrats on a another great season,

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Speaker 1: three year runner being top five in terms of rankings accuracy.

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: What's up? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: This is what our seventh or eighth time we're doing

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Speaker 3: this expert guide on how to you know win. You're

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Speaker 3: a fantas football league, so looking forward to hopping in

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Speaker 3: and discuss with you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're gonna go through pretty much everything that

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Speaker 1: we check boxes for as we're going through our leagues

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Speaker 1: and our process. And you know, the advantage for us

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Speaker 1: that we get to do it all year round. So

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Speaker 1: I think the rankings take a big step out of

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Speaker 1: if you you might be with this and you still

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Speaker 1: still consider yourself newer to the game or obviously there's

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Speaker 1: never a shortage of things to learn, even for guys

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Speaker 1: like us. But we're gonna give you all the knowledge

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Speaker 1: we have. And if you're getting ready to go in

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Speaker 1: and try to crush your league this year, why not

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Speaker 1: use the same projections that we use? Because guess what

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Speaker 1: you can. Our Fantasy Labs NFL subscription gives you access

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Speaker 1: to all those player rankings, customizable draft cheat sheets, and more.

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Speaker 1: New subscribers can use code flex twenty that's fl ex

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Speaker 1: two zero for twenty dollars off at Fantasy labs dot

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Speaker 1: com slash flex. So go win your league with the

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Speaker 1: number four and the number six two top six thirty

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Speaker 1: three percent of the top six Fantasy Football most accurate

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Speaker 1: preseason rankers of the past three seasons. And I can't

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Speaker 1: I can only speak for for Sean. I know he's

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Speaker 1: probably even better than that and in season, So make

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Speaker 1: sure that you go and use that code flex twenty

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Speaker 1: for twenty hours off at Fantasy Labs dot com slash flex.

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Speaker 1: So this pod is going to be two main sections.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be how to win, and then it's

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Speaker 1: going to be position by position, what are we looking

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Speaker 1: for when we're actually evaluating these players. But let's start

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Speaker 1: with how do we win? Sean, You've done a lot

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Speaker 1: of winning in fantasy over the past. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna date you, but I'm going to

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Speaker 1: say a very very large stretch of your life. You

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Speaker 1: could say it.

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Speaker 3: Thirty years, about three decades, a long long time. Randy

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Speaker 3: Moss's rookie season was actually my first draft ever, if

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Speaker 3: you want to date me. But yeah, I think at

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Speaker 3: a high level, just general, you know, principles on how

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Speaker 3: to win, especially if you're starting h you know, for

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Speaker 3: the first time in a specific format, is to have

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Speaker 3: specific player rankings by position for that specific league based

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Speaker 3: on the league's scoring. So there's unique leagues that reward

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Speaker 3: four points for a passing touchdown or six points for

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Speaker 3: a passing touchdown or full PPR things like that. You

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Speaker 3: just want to make sure that your rankings are based

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Speaker 3: on that league's scoring. And then from there, you know,

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Speaker 3: you kind of want to have a general idea of

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Speaker 3: your draft strategy based on where you're picking from. So

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Speaker 3: when you have picks one through four or nine through twelve,

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Speaker 3: you're probably going to have a different strategy just based

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Speaker 3: on the players that you're going to even have access

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Speaker 3: to in the first few rounds, and then from there

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Speaker 3: you're gonna have to draft according to position needs. So

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Speaker 3: having a basic draft plan, you know, for the first

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Speaker 3: you know, four picks middle of the draft or later

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Speaker 3: is important. And then I know you're going to talk

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Speaker 3: about this, we both agree, but average draft position is

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Speaker 3: so key.

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Speaker 2: Knowing when players are.

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Speaker 3: Going to go is the name of the game because

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Speaker 3: that kind of dictates your strategy of you know, you

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Speaker 3: got to take a certain player because he's not going

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Speaker 3: to make it back to you, or you know, you

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Speaker 3: know that these certain players will fall to this round,

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Speaker 3: so they're a nice backup plan. But specifically for your league.

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Speaker 3: Ideally you're in a league with friends, family where you

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Speaker 3: really know what teams and players they like, and that'll

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Speaker 3: give you a better sense as to when players are

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Speaker 3: going to go ahead or behind adp. So if you're

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Speaker 3: in a league of buddies that you know have a

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Speaker 3: handful of Bears, die hard Bears fans, you have to

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Speaker 3: assume players like Kayleb Williams, DJ Moore, Colson Loveland might

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Speaker 3: go a little earlier than ADP. So just having a

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Speaker 3: good sense of your league in general and how and

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Speaker 3: when they'll draft is critical. But I think you know,

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Speaker 3: having good rankings based on projections and understanding you know,

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Speaker 3: average draft position, win guys will go is the key

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Speaker 3: to having successful draft, which is obviously very important when

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Speaker 3: it comes to build you know, winning fantasy football team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. At its core, winning in fantasy football is

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Speaker 1: it starts with the draft, and the draft is about

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Speaker 1: maximizing your value in relation to the draft capital that

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Speaker 1: you have, and that could come in big chunks. It

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Speaker 1: could come all in a few players, but it's possible

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Speaker 1: it can. It can come as much as almost every

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Speaker 1: single pick or round in the draft. So you have

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Speaker 1: to be aware of how to build edges in different ways.

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Speaker 1: And I think ADP, because of that, is the most

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Speaker 1: valuable draft data point, because even if I didn't have

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Speaker 1: my rankings on our projections, I would at least know

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Speaker 1: how to I would know the consensus and I but

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Speaker 1: I would also and I would know how to fade them.

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Speaker 1: So you're not gonna win by following ADP. That's why

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Speaker 1: accurate rankings are so important. But knowing that ADP is

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Speaker 1: something that is an average and that it's generally predictive

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Speaker 1: of how the draft's going to unfold overall, it gives

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Speaker 1: you a lot of ways to attack. And I think

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Speaker 1: sometimes you're going to see edges in terms of positional value.

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Speaker 1: That is a big thing. Where let's say you have

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Speaker 1: rankings and those rankings are correct from a positional standpoint

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Speaker 1: in terms of, you know, generally, but there could still

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Speaker 1: be a lot of different ways the draft could unfold.

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Speaker 1: If you had let's say, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henriett

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Speaker 1: as the you know, running back two and three last year, well,

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Speaker 1: if everyone's just fading a running back for the first

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Speaker 1: two rounds, you know, it completely changes up the draft.

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Speaker 1: And so I think the key is understanding the value

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Speaker 1: in terms of positions, you know, not just players within

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Speaker 1: those positions, and then being able to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: that as the draft unfolds. All the everything you're trying

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Speaker 1: to do, all the edges you're trying to build, they

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Speaker 1: can happen even when you're not picking, because not only

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Speaker 1: are you trying to maximize positional value, which tends to

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Speaker 1: happen when there's a run on a certain position. And

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Speaker 1: you know last year a lot of people drafting wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: Early this year, there's a point late in the first round,

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Speaker 1: early second where there's a bunch of running backs, some

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Speaker 1: more risky than others go. So there's always these kind

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Speaker 1: of pockets. And we'll talk about one of our favorite

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Speaker 1: pockets have been later on the show. But there are

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Speaker 1: positional pockets that tend to emerge year after year. So

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Speaker 1: that's one of your biggest edges. Always understanding how to

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Speaker 1: fade the consensus is key because what you see with

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Speaker 1: average draft position is when you start going off the

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Speaker 1: board by more than a roundsworth of picks early in drafts,

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Speaker 1: it's yeah, that's when you start seeing a downtick. But

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Speaker 1: if you're generally keeping it to guys where they were

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Speaker 1: to make it back to you the next round, that's

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Speaker 1: when I think you shouldn't be hesitant to follow adp

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Speaker 1: or ranks, whatever it is to the t each time.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna get a lot of potential outcomes that are

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Speaker 1: different by switching it up, especially if you draft you

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Speaker 1: know more than one team. You don't want to just

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Speaker 1: be kind of going by you know, these strict rules

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Speaker 1: because it's it's gonna let the draft kind of determine,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna dictate too much. You want to be in

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Speaker 1: position to dictate. So I think the biggest edges tend

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Speaker 1: to come from fading ADP, but within doing it well

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Speaker 1: and knowing how to do it, you know, not just

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Speaker 1: doing it for the sake of being contrarian, because you

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Speaker 1: still there's still only a small window of players that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna really want to pivot to fate. But fading

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Speaker 1: the media, I think is something that's so easy. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's just so many puff pieces this time of year, so, uh,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to fade the media pretty much

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Speaker 1: all year. And and everything's just gotten crazy with the box

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Speaker 1: and AI and just the current media landscape. So I'm

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Speaker 1: sure that's gonna be even more valuable. And but you

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Speaker 1: also got to know how to fade experts. And what

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Speaker 1: I mean by that is there's there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: very smart people in this industry. Uh, you know, obviously

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Speaker 1: you're one of them, Sean, But whatever the dominant strategy

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Speaker 1: emerges between you know, certain consensus of experts, Uh, it's

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Speaker 1: going to influence a lot of drafts and you have

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Speaker 1: to kind of understand, you know, what, what's going on there,

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Speaker 1: and that if everyone else is kind of doing the

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Speaker 1: same strategy that was only supposed to work because no

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Speaker 1: one was doing it, it's it's probably not gonna work. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot to just really nailing that position of

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Speaker 1: value and trying to find your edges by slowly but

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Speaker 1: surely cumulatively every every round building up a little bit

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Speaker 1: more of an edge, and by not taking busts early.

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Speaker 1: I think that is one of the biggest things, So

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Speaker 1: really understanding not necessarily who you're gonna targetcause you don't

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Speaker 1: know who's gonna exactly be there, but you can control

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Speaker 1: who you can kind of fade. So I think that's

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Speaker 1: that's always a big one for me. Sean is early

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Speaker 1: in drafts you always say you can't really win your league,

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Speaker 1: but you can you can lose it, And I think

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Speaker 1: it's the same thing with sleepers versus busts or targets

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Speaker 1: versus bus It's like you can't control who's there at

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Speaker 1: your draft slot, but you can control who you don't

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Speaker 1: draft because you're you know, you kind of have a

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Speaker 1: strong opinion about Okay, well, either they're not gonna be there,

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Speaker 1: or if they are, I'm not taking them. So I

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Speaker 1: always actually valued my kind of do not draft list

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Speaker 1: a little more than my targets list because I think

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Speaker 1: that's that's really where drafts are. One early in the

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Speaker 1: league or lost early in the draft.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, just when it comes to the first few rounds, again,

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Speaker 3: you're just trying to avoid disaster, and sometimes it's out

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Speaker 3: of your control. Like heading into the season, we didn't

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Speaker 3: know Christian McCaffery was dealing with like an achilles injury

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Speaker 3: that you know, pretty much wiped out his entire season.

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Speaker 3: That can happen. That's again that's outside your control. But

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Speaker 3: there are guys in the first few rounds that are risky.

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Speaker 3: Maybe they are dealing with a known injury heading into

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Speaker 3: the season, or they're on a new team, or they're

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Speaker 3: getting older where they just have more risk than other

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Speaker 3: players in the first few rounds. And that's kind of

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Speaker 3: what I like to do, is avoid those guys. Just

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Speaker 3: go the safest route, because you know, all those guys are,

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Speaker 3: you know, being drafted in the first few rounds for

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Speaker 3: a reason. They're pretty much all gonna do well if

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Speaker 3: they stay healthy. So I just you know, play it safe.

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Speaker 3: And then it's the middle to later rounds. That's when

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Speaker 3: I'm swinging for the fences, taking big chances where a guy,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's not a guaranteed lock to go off

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Speaker 3: this year, but that's that's when I'm more willing to

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Speaker 3: take risks where you know, the first tree rounds, I

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Speaker 3: maybe playing it much much safer and being a little

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Speaker 3: bit more conservative when it comes to you know, who

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Speaker 3: I'm drafting exactly.

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Speaker 1: And that's why the ability to adjust dynamically to your

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Speaker 1: draft is so important, and it's something that the best

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Speaker 1: way to do it is just to have the knowledge

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Speaker 1: yourself and be prepared because there have been over the years,

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Speaker 1: and you know, you've mentioned it, You've been doing this

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Speaker 1: for three decades. I'm around the same and we've seen

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Speaker 1: so many different strategies come and go and so many

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Speaker 1: different methods of doing it. And now, you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: sure everyone thinks they can kind of do it with

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Speaker 1: AI and this and and different things like that. And

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, if you were lie

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Speaker 1: on anything other than being present with the correct uh

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Speaker 1: knowledge in your draft, you're you're you're not maximizing your

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Speaker 1: potential edges. So I think that you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: getting getting those things out of the way, making sure

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Speaker 1: you have your ranks, making sure you have everything so

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Speaker 1: that you you can just draft and not worry, you know,

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Speaker 1: not be overloaded with decision fatigue. And that's where I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, even things like people don't talk about this

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Speaker 1: as much in fantasy, but winning the intangible game, right

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Speaker 1: you know, you kind of alluded to it sean league

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Speaker 1: rules scoring settings, Uh, you know, if somebody's drafting in

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Speaker 1: more than one league, if if you know, they might

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Speaker 1: not be paying as much attention to that, or I

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Speaker 1: think another one is just with when it comes to

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Speaker 1: these projections that we do. I think one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest edges for us is always we find that, even

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Speaker 1: compared to a lot of consensus and other experts, players

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Speaker 1: who are gonna miss time with injury or suspension that's

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Speaker 1: already guaranteed to happen pretty much like it's already a certainty,

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Speaker 1: those players tend to be very overvalued. It's really hard

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Speaker 1: to kind of properly value them when it's not you know,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be something less than a full season

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Speaker 1: and maybe even something less than three quarters of a season,

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Speaker 1: so you know, things like that winning the intangible game.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the keys that people tend to

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Speaker 1: struggle with at all levels of fantasy is the late rounds.

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Speaker 1: And on one hand, you could look at the numbers

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Speaker 1: and say, there's not a lot of important picks that

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Speaker 1: get chosen there, but that's the whole point. You know,

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Speaker 1: as you said, Seant, you gotta play it safe early

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Speaker 1: to put yourself in position that if you hit one

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Speaker 1: of those picks, you know, it should be game over

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Speaker 1: because there's only going to be so many you know,

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Speaker 1: Pook and the coops and guys like that each year,

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Speaker 1: Bucky Irving who you nailed. But if you didn't set

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Speaker 1: up your team and you took too many chances early,

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Speaker 1: and it's not a best ball format, and we'll do

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Speaker 1: a whole nother pot on that bottle way because it's

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Speaker 1: such a different even though a lot of times the

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Speaker 1: ranks more or less come up similarly, it's it's a

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Speaker 1: whole different strategy. But I think it's really about, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of winning all these different ways in drafts,

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Speaker 1: and you know, putting yourself in position to where you

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Speaker 1: know hitting on a mid round pick, a late round pick,

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Speaker 1: when it gets less likely it is going to do

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Speaker 1: even more for you. So, uh, you know, what do

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Speaker 1: you what do you kind of do when you're as

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Speaker 1: you're going through a draft and you're you know, trying

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Speaker 1: to trying to get into that point in the draft

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Speaker 1: where you're saying, Okay, I kind of played it safe

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Speaker 1: early on. I you know, prioritize my my floors and

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Speaker 1: other people probably dropping like flies because they're making bad picks.

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Speaker 1: When do you start to pivot? What comes into play?

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Speaker 1: What are you thinking about? I think it well, it

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Speaker 1: depends on every draft. Again, it's kind of where your

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Speaker 1: draft slot position is that kind of dictates that for me.

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Speaker 1: But typically the middle rounds, I think people aren't willing

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Speaker 1: enough to be aggressive when it comes to the middle rounds.

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Speaker 1: If you drafted teams last year, go look at your

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Speaker 1: draft and see how many players you end up dropping,

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Speaker 1: you know, from like round five or six. Like sometimes

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Speaker 1: it's funny to go see like how off we all were,

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Speaker 1: Like ADP was on some of these guys.

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Speaker 2: So I'm willing going to take shots pretty early on.

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Speaker 3: But I think at a larger point, I think this

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Speaker 3: is where like mock drafting and just getting your hands

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Speaker 3: dirty certainly helps because you know, I play around with

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Speaker 3: what happens if I take you know, a quarterback earlier

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Speaker 3: like Josh Allen er Lamar Jackson, Like can I still

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Speaker 3: get the team I want? And by just having you

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Speaker 3: know a lot of mock drafts under my belt, I

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Speaker 3: kind of understand the builds that make sense. The players

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Speaker 3: that I keep, you know, fall to me in you know,

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Speaker 3: round six through nine. So I think just doing mock

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Speaker 3: drafts and like really trying out certain strategies and seeing

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Speaker 3: what works what doesn't, it actually helps me take care

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Speaker 3: of blind spots you know, early on, Like a couple

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Speaker 3: of months ago, my first you know drafts I was doing,

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Speaker 3: I was realizing I wasn't taking receiver early enough. So

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Speaker 3: you just kind of hone in on your strategy when

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Speaker 3: when you do all these mock drafts. But typically, yeah,

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Speaker 3: rounds five through ten I think are critical to take

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Speaker 3: the guys that you're high on. Like, like you said,

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Speaker 3: you don't always want to follow ADP. That's not how

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Speaker 3: you win. You got to take stands on certain guys,

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Speaker 3: draft guys a little bit ahead of ADP, making sure

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Speaker 3: you get them knowing which guys will fall in ADP.

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Speaker 3: So I think just getting as many reps as possible

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Speaker 3: to kind of get your strategy down, because again it

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Speaker 3: changes based on your draft order. But again I think

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Speaker 3: that those rounds five through ten are so critical on

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Speaker 3: getting those league winner type guys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's what we're doing, like maniacs in March.

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Speaker 1: And I mean, you know, for anyone that's not familiar

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Speaker 1: with Best Ball, the the average draft position, it's so sharp.

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Speaker 1: The minute the draft happens, people have already been taking

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Speaker 1: these rookies what seems like way too high, and it

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Speaker 1: tends to be higher than they go sometimes in August drafts.

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Speaker 1: So that's what we're kind of doing. But I found that,

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Speaker 1: you know, first of all, if you're not if you're

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Speaker 1: just trying to if you're a you know, more of

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Speaker 1: a nubie or intermediate, like, that's that's gonna be in

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Speaker 1: any that's going to all be reflected in our rankings.

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Speaker 1: If you're really if you're really trying to be an

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Speaker 1: expert but you don't want to do or you don't

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Speaker 1: have time to do like a hundred mock drafts, like

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Speaker 1: probably even more than that. I mean, we get under

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Speaker 1: our belts between like real drafts, mock drafts, everything in between.

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Speaker 1: I think just I think the most valuable thing for

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Speaker 1: me is just looking at the at the average draft position,

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Speaker 1: which again is why I say it's it's always the

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Speaker 1: most valuable data point in my opinion, because you could

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Speaker 1: just kind of look at it round by round, apply

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Speaker 1: to your league or whatever, and start from the bottom

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Speaker 1: and say, Okay, if I'm in a twelve team league

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Speaker 1: that goes fifteen rounds, who do I like in round fifteen?

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Speaker 1: Just asking yourself that question and saying and a lot

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Speaker 1: of times what you're gonna find is, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: a couple of quarterbacks here that I would take. And

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Speaker 1: you know, we'll start to get into into the weeds

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Speaker 1: on position of strategy metrics that we like to use

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Speaker 1: and don't, but generally speaking, you're gonna if you look

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Speaker 1: at the draft kind of upside down, even if you're

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Speaker 1: not necessarily mocking or doing real drafts or something like that,

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Speaker 1: just kind of being able to look and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: these are the players that tend to be available here,

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Speaker 1: and these are the guys you know this, these are

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Speaker 1: the positions that kind of stand out. These are the

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Speaker 1: guys that stand out against that that ADP. Sometimes there's

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Speaker 1: a lot. Sometimes it's half the half, the quarterbacks, you know,

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Speaker 1: the backup quarterbacks. Sometimes it's only one or two guys,

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Speaker 1: so and you never know who's gonna be there. It's

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Speaker 1: average raft position, but it's so valuable because I think

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Speaker 1: what happens a lot of times is if you're drafting

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Speaker 1: against people that you're better than that, they're naturally Probably

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Speaker 1: one of the reasons you're better than them is because

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Speaker 1: they're not putting as much effort or uh, they don't

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Speaker 1: have as much knowledge about the light rounds. But even experts,

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Speaker 1: because we do this so often and we do this

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Speaker 1: all year round, I think we tend to be biased

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Speaker 1: toward the guys we like, and you know that we

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Speaker 1: teut and so there's there's multiple ways to kind of

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Speaker 1: get an edge regardless of who you're playing against, and

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Speaker 1: there's so much upside to it because a lot of

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Speaker 1: the picks you can make light like you got like

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Speaker 1: a guy like a Let's say you just throw Keaton

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Speaker 1: Mitchell or somebody on your team. They're gonna screw guys

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Speaker 1: if they hit, they're also gonna screw teams that drafted

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Speaker 1: players early. You know, even if it doesn't happen quite

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Speaker 1: like that, it's a lot of times what what happened

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Speaker 1: is you know, I remember us always talking about like

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Speaker 1: Jarious Tony was a guy that I think we were

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Speaker 1: low on, and uh, if you drafted the guy go

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Speaker 1: after him or with Shanahan's bathfield. A lot of times

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Speaker 1: the guy that goes after him much later, you somebody

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Speaker 1: wasted a draft pick. And that's why I say it's

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Speaker 1: all about building those edges and avoiding busts early, because

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Speaker 1: by avoiding a bus you could win twelve times in

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Speaker 1: a round. Let's say, let's say in a hypothetical situation,

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Speaker 1: there were you know, everyone else in a twelve team

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Speaker 1: league chose a bust and you chose somebody that smashed.

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Speaker 1: You didn't win. You didn't just get the edge once

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Speaker 1: that round. You got an edge tough times. So it's

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Speaker 1: I think that's how you have to think about it

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Speaker 1: in terms of of of getting an edge, and that

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Speaker 1: you can. You can do it in so many different

402
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Speaker 1: ways and you have to use all of them, and

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Speaker 1: it's it's going to change depending on your draft. One

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Speaker 1: thing I want to get your thoughts on before we

405
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Speaker 1: jump to positions. Is drafting based on rankings and you

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Speaker 1: know how to do it and how not to do

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Speaker 1: it because you are go to rankings their year and

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Speaker 1: I know sometimes you you get frustrated because there's there

409
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Speaker 1: could still be times when somebody wrong. So to speak

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Speaker 1: off your rankings, you got to talk to me about

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Speaker 1: what that's about.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's that's a critical point because you

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Speaker 3: know our rankings are going to differ from ADP.

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Speaker 2: You know, where we're.

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Speaker 3: Gonna have a guy we ranked, you know, thirty slots

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Speaker 3: higher than ADP. Let's say, so that's like two to

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Speaker 3: three rounds ahead of ADP. And a common mistake I

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Speaker 3: see people make is they draft that guy where we

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Speaker 3: have him ranked, so a couple of rounds early. You know,

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Speaker 3: in theory, that's that's good because you know, we are

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Speaker 3: projecting that guy to be better than the market thinks.

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Speaker 3: But you're kind of killing the value by doing that,

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Speaker 3: because the idea is you want to get him as

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Speaker 3: close to ADP as possible, knowing that he's better than

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Speaker 3: where he's getting drafted, or in theory, you know he's

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Speaker 3: offering more upside than where he's getting drafted. Now, that

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Speaker 3: doesn't mean you just wait until you know exactly where

428
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Speaker 3: he goes. You will want to, you know, take that

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Speaker 3: guy a little bit ahead of ADP, so you make

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Speaker 3: sure you get him. But again, you want to wait

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Speaker 3: as long as possible, as long as you can in theory,

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Speaker 3: to get him. That's kind of how you're locking in

433
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 3: the value is getting that guy a couple rounds later

434
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 3: than he should is the name of the game in

435
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 3: my opinion. And you know that's I haven't rolled them

436
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 3: out yet, but over the next couple weeks, I'm gonna

437
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 3: have my tiers and strategy pieces for every position. And

438
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 3: I think it's also important to kind of talk about

439
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 3: the idea of tiers in general. I like to bucket

440
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 3: guys within position within tiers because a lot of the

441
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: guys that you know we ranked, you know, we could

442
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 3: have say wide receivers ten through twenty separated by like

443
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 3: a point or two, so we really consider all those

444
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 3: guys interchangeable. Where you know, someone's taking the wide receiver

445
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 3: ten and you know round two, whereas somebody going in

446
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 3: round four is just like a couple points lower in

447
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 3: our projections. But you're gonna have a couple rounds later,

448
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 3: so knowing that you can kind of decide when to

449
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 3: draft certain positions, so I get like way more detailed

450
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: and graanial level when in my tiers pieces. But it's

451
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 3: important to just kind of bucket players within the positions

452
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: themselves in tiers to to kind of get a sense

453
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 3: when it's important, when it's critical to attack a position,

454
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 3: because you know there's going to be a big drop

455
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 3: off from that player to the next. So I think

456
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 3: at a high level, uh, when it comes to that,

457
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 3: you're you're thinking in terms of tiers, but also, like

458
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: you said, when you're comparing rankings to ADP, you don't

459
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 3: want to you know, rob the value by taking them

460
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: too early. You do want to draft them, you know,

461
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 3: as late as you can, as close to ADP. That's

462
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,959
Speaker 3: how you're you're locking in value. And that's that's the

463
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 3: mistake I see people see is they just draft based

464
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 3: on their rankings, which which is smart, but you need

465
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 3: to you need to be factoring in when they're going

466
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: as well.

467
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and it's even more crucial when you're drafting in

468
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: those first few round I would say, the first five

469
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: or six rounds, because that's when you're drafting the core

470
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: of your team, and it's always so high for a

471
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: guy to go, there's not going to be a big

472
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: edge too necessarily. A guy who is taken let's say

473
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: in the third round instead of the fifth, like he

474
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: still only has two rounds to go up. It might

475
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 1: be a big value compared to the consensus in our

476
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: ranks or somebody else's ranks, but at the end of

477
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: the day, a guy taken early, there's only so much

478
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: higher he can go in terms of ceiling, So there's

479
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: a kind of a limit to how much you can win.

480
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,239
Speaker 1: So that's why, to your point, you want to just

481
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: ideally get him at or below ADP and then and

482
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 1: that's really kind of what it is. Almost throughout the draft,

483
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: you're trying to get guys at or below ADP. You're

484
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: really never trying to reach, especially in traditional non basketball

485
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: formats where there's not even stacking coming into play necessarily,

486
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: because even if there's a positional run, a lot of

487
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: times it can make the most sense to or the

488
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 1: value is going to show in not just following it blindly.

489
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: It's going to be the pivot to maybe not this.

490
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: Not even like if let's say there's a big run

491
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 1: on running backs. Sometimes it might not even be worth

492
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 1: it to like, Okay, just take the next wide receiver.

493
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 1: Maybe now you can get a team with Brock Bowers

494
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: and a stud quarterback or something like that. That teams

495
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 1: that you just couldn't build if there wasn't this run.

496
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of different ways trying to gain

497
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 1: an edge, and it's all going to depend on how

498
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: the draft unfolds. And that's really what we're trying to

499
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: stress is that there are these different ways to get edges,

500
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 1: and you know there are message to do them, but

501
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 1: there's no one way, there's no one strategy, there's no

502
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: one thing. The average draft position is an average, So

503
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: always remember that. I think that is so key and

504
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: it's a good segue into positional strategy. And man, it

505
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: used to just be running backs. Everyone was taking running

506
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: backs at the top of the draft. And then somewhere

507
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: along the line, the NFL got smart to it and

508
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: started realizing that, you know, just like as fantasy owners

509
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: started realizing, these guys get hurt a lot, maybe we

510
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: shouldn't build our entire offenses around them, our entire teams

511
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: around them. And so we's changed a lot and what's

512
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: the result. It is, receivers are just as in I

513
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: would say at this point, tend to be more valuable

514
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: early on than running backs, and there is a big

515
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: reason for that, and we're going to get into it.

516
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: But what it really creates is a situation where you

517
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: still have your study running backs, still have your stud

518
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: receivers obviously, but after that there's a frozen pond, right, Sean,

519
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: just I mean, what is the frozen pond? Tell tell

520
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: everybody out there.

521
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

522
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: So, I mean, just at a high level, you made

523
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: an excellent point that just running backs, they're they're very

524
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 3: They're still very important, important and fancy, but they are

525
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 3: the most fragile position for a variety of reasons. But

526
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 3: there is this range now where us other experts are

527
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: very cautious when we're drafting running backs because we know

528
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 3: the risks, and a lot of people call.

529
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: It the dead zone.

530
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 3: I don't love that name because it implies you you

531
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: don't want anybody in this range. That's not true either.

532
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 3: I think there's gonna be guys we want to target

533
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 3: in this range. But I like calling it the frozen

534
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:28,479
Speaker 3: pond tier because in theory, it's you know, all these

535
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: running backs on surface, seems safe. You know they're heading

536
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: into week one as the team starting running back, let's say,

537
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 3: or they had a really good season last year. They

538
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: seem safe on the surface, but you and I can

539
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: identify red flags where you know one thing can change

540
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 3: and boom. You know, their value tanks. Their floor is

541
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 3: much much lower than people realize. And what happens if

542
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 3: you're walking on like a frozen pond and the cracks,

543
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 3: you're cooked and it happens instantly. Doesn't mean that you

544
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 3: can't get across the pond unscathed. But that's that's kind

545
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: of what the range I would say, like running backs

546
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 3: ten through thirty are kind of in that bucket where

547
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: you know, for any number of reasons, And I know

548
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: you have your reasons to potentially avoid some of these backs,

549
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 3: but it could it include you.

550
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: Know, changing teams or changing schemes.

551
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 3: You know, they might be getting older, they might be

552
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 3: on the wrong side of thirty. You know, they might

553
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 3: not have a strong of grip on the lead role

554
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 3: like people might think. Like last year, I kept saying,

555
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 3: Rashad White, you know he has the most competition she's

556
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 3: ever seen in you know, his three years in the

557
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 3: NFL with Bucky Irving now backing him up, So things

558
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 3: like that can be a red flag. But that's kind

559
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 3: of the term we use for these running backs when

560
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 3: the you know, running got ten through thirty range, where

561
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: on the surface it might seem you know, nice and shiny,

562
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 3: but there might be some reasons.

563
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 2: Why you know they're gonna tank.

564
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 3: You might you know, not be able to play them,

565
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: or might have to outright drop them based on all

566
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 3: these reasons. But it's a very risky and delicate range

567
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 3: to be drafting running backs.

568
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 2: Is the frozen pond tier?

569
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: It is so frozen this year, one way or another,

570
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: the frozen pond tier is going to dictate drafts, all

571
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 1: drafts because I mean, talk to me about just the

572
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: strategy of whide receiver versus running back, but with the

573
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: added wrinkle that this year almost everyone in drafts is

574
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: avoiding running backs for the in the third, fourth, fifth,

575
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: sixth rounds. So it's kind of put like, how does

576
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: that affect your draft strategy? How should that be affecting

577
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: people's draftsrategies? With this kind of massive swing toward these

578
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 1: middle round wide receivers and away from the running backs.

579
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's it's I think it's moving closer

580
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 3: to my overall draft strategy is I definitely try to

581
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 3: get two to three wide receivers as early as possible,

582
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 3: because just when it comes to the wide receiver position,

583
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: it's much much tougher to be adding guys from the

584
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 3: waiver wire in season that end up being you know, studs,

585
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 3: like a top twenty type player. Whereas running back again,

586
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 3: it's so vulnerable that it adds risk on drafting guys

587
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 3: early because they can get hurt, they could lose their job,

588
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: things like that. But you know, all these backups are

589
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 3: in play where if somebody misses time, another guy could

590
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 3: step up. A good example is someone like Zach Charbonay.

591
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: I had, you know, on my bench in a lot

592
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: of leagues last year, where you know, I'm not playing

593
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,959
Speaker 3: him when Kenth Walker's healthy, but once he misses tip,

594
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 3: I know I have a top ten running back, so

595
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 3: I could just plug them in. You don't really get

596
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: that with wide receivers.

597
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 2: You know, if Drake.

598
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 3: Lennon miss his time, Ray Ray McCloud isn't all of

599
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 3: a sudden the top twenty wide receiver, so it just

600
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 3: goes to like most of the time, there's only one

601
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 3: running back on the field, where you know they might

602
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 3: have two to four, sometimes five wide receivers on the field.

603
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 3: It just has to go with opportunity. These running backs,

604
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: you know, they're getting tackled twenty plus times the game,

605
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 3: so they're getting hit the most, so usually the smaller

606
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 3: player on the field, so they're more prone to injuries.

607
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 3: So a lot of different reasons why running backs are

608
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 3: so volatile and risky taking early on, which is why

609
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,479
Speaker 3: I think I think the public is you know, having

610
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 3: a better sense of that and gravitating more towards the

611
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 3: zero RB approach and you know, valuing wide receivers a

612
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: lot more. So it's not really changing anything on my

613
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 3: end because again you're looking at the same thing as me.

614
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 3: All these running backs from like ten through thirty, I

615
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 3: could create a scenario where you know they're going to

616
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 3: be a disaster for.

617
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 2: You this year.

618
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 3: Doesn't mean all of them are gonna you know, bust,

619
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 3: but it's just very risky. Whereas you know, when you

620
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 3: look at receivers, most of these guys for wide receiver

621
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 3: ten through thirty are all excellent and I want as

622
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 3: many of them as possible. So it just has to

623
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 3: go with the nature of the position itself, the game itself,

624
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: and you know, just knowing when you can get these

625
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 3: certain players. So again I'm still you know, valuing wide

626
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 3: receiver very highly in the first several rounds of the

627
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 3: draft because of this.

628
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's important to also consider the context of

629
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: this particular your end of every year. Twenty twenty five

630
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: is a year where the zero RB strategy tended to

631
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:57,399
Speaker 1: fall flat on its face. Yeah, and you know, now

632
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: we have another opportunity to use it. It's if it's

633
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: something where there's no correct strategy, you can win with

634
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: all the different strategies. If you look at the long

635
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 1: term data every almost every year, there's a way to

636
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 1: win any which way. But there does tend to be

637
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 1: a bit of a bias. And so the thing to

638
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: remember is that there are gonna be ways to There're

639
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: gonna be drafts where you might end up not you

640
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: might end up getting running backs early because everyone else

641
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: is thinking that same thing. It's really comes it really

642
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: comes down to the value. And I think when the

643
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 1: entire board gets sharper, which I think it did, it's

644
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: just gonna put the onus on the individual drafter to

645
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:49,720
Speaker 1: make sure that they are truly taking advantage of value

646
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 1: versus adp and not just blindly following a strategy because

647
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: they predicted that it was gonna be the best one

648
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: heading into the draft. You should The key is to

649
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 1: know how to use every strategy, know what it looks like.

650
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 1: And that's why we tend to be so comfortable fading

651
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,800
Speaker 1: running backs in the middle rounds because what's gonna happen

652
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 1: is you don't know which of those guys in the

653
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: frozen pond they're gonna sink to you. I guess you

654
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: could say, but they some of them will, and you

655
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,240
Speaker 1: just buy. You just take the dip on those guys.

656
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 1: And that's the whole point. How do I leverage the

657
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 1: value at different pockets in the draft? The answer isn't

658
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 1: to necessarily always stockpile running backs. Some years it will

659
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: work better than others some point with some players in

660
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 1: some draft spots that will work better than with others.

661
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, you have to

662
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 1: look at it and say, I might be better off

663
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: treating all these guys interchangeable. And because I see there's

664
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: a lot more difference at wide receiver, at tight end,

665
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: at quarterback, even in terms of guys you can get.

666
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 1: So it's not necessarily like look at this and say

667
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 1: I have to dress two running backs early like it's

668
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight again. But also I don't have to be,

669
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 1: you know, on this zero RB strategy. I just have

670
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: to understand in what scenarios in a draft depending on

671
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: you know, what is it a super flex as a

672
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: normal one QB league where there's always gonna be quarterbacks

673
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: around and tight ends this year too, you have to

674
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 1: understand that there's gonna be an arms racer receiver one

675
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: way or another. So I'm usually just like you, I'm

676
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 1: trying to draft at least as many wide receivers in

677
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: those first sixth rounds as I had flex positions starting

678
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 1: in my week, and preferably one more than that because

679
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,280
Speaker 1: wide receivers tend to miss about one to two games.

680
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 1: Last year was a little higher for wide receivers, which

681
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: is part of the reason everything went kind of haywire

682
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 1: and swung across to running backs. So running backs are

683
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 1: really the only position that is missing. Instead of it's

684
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 1: you know, one to two, it's for running backs, it's

685
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 1: usually three to four or more. So that just changes

686
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: the whole mass but even at receiver, if you're starting

687
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 1: let's say three in a flex, you're expecting eight six

688
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: to eight games missed plus bye weeks, So you tend

689
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: to you're gonna need to treat the draft, I think,

690
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,439
Speaker 1: and I'm curious as to how you approach the show,

691
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: But I kind of think of it as there's a

692
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: part of the draft when startable players are available, and

693
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 1: there's a part of the draft where startable players are

694
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: not available any longer, and that just comes down to

695
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 1: your starting lineup size in the lead, but it tends

696
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 1: to be around the tenth round, so I usually have,

697
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 1: rather than any kind of specific strategy, you know, I'm

698
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: gonna do this in the first round. This is the

699
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 1: second round. Running back, wide receiver. I'm looking at it

700
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 1: like I need at least five top forty wide receivers.

701
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 1: I want at least three top fifty running backs, and

702
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 1: then depending on what else happens, my quarterback at the

703
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: tight end will kind of fit into that. Usually it

704
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: comes with toward the later half. But how do you

705
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 1: kind of approach the different positions in terms? Is there

706
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 1: are there any cutouts for you? Or you tend to

707
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: looking at it tend to be looking at it, you know,

708
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 1: with the early rounds and then a distinct strategy. How

709
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: are you kind of setting up those tiers to work

710
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: for you as a draft progresses.

711
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great way to put it.

712
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 3: I definitely think similarly where you know by this by

713
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,399
Speaker 3: round ten, I want at least five receivers. I think

714
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 3: it's important to also consider the league setting. Some leagues

715
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 3: only use two wide receivers versus three when it comes

716
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 3: to your starting lineup. So in leagues where you're only

717
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 3: starting two receivers and still just one flex, I'm going

718
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 3: to lower that number a bit. Maybe I'll have I'll

719
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 3: want four wide receivers by round ten, But I think

720
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 3: it's critical to understand your league specifically. But yeah, in general,

721
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 3: you know, wide receiver is the one I think is

722
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 3: the most important to attack early, and like you said,

723
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 3: just kind of as quarterbacks and tight ends, if they

724
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 3: fall to me, great, If not, I am more than

725
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 3: willing to not draft a quarterback or a tight end

726
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 3: and the top ten if it works out that way,

727
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: because over the past few seasons, you know, I've gone

728
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 3: into leagues where I don't even have a quarterback and

729
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 3: I just stream and you know, you can usually produce

730
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,479
Speaker 3: a top ten quarterback that way, and you might even

731
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 3: stumble on. You know, someone like Bo Nicks wasn't drafted

732
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 3: in every league and he ended up being a top

733
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 3: ten quarterback. I know you were high on Jayden Daniels.

734
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 2: You could have got him later in the draft.

735
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 3: So there's just so many guys year after year that

736
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 3: you could end up stumbling on, even if you punt.

737
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 3: Quarterback or tight end. Tight end specifically has had a

738
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 3: ton of league winners that you can get later on.

739
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 3: So I'm usually not, you know, worried if I don't

740
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 3: have a quarterback or tight end. I I say round ten,

741
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 3: and then, like you said, I'm stuck piling my bench

742
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 3: typically with backup running backs. Running backs I think that

743
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 3: have a ton of upside if the starting running back

744
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 3: we're to go down. So you're right after after you

745
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 3: get to you know, round ten, you're you're gonna be

746
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 3: drafting guys that might not be startable right away, and

747
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 3: I think that's that's when it makes sense to reload

748
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 3: up with backup running backs. And one thing to point,

749
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 3: I think you touch on it briefly, but just last year,

750
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 3: running back position overall was very healthy. I think it

751
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: was only with Christian McCaffrey that missed more than like

752
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 3: three games. That was the running back that was drafted

753
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 3: you know early on. So last year, all these a

754
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 3: lot of these backs played all seventeen games, which is

755
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 3: not common. Typically backs missed two to three games on average.

756
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 3: And you know, oftentimes we have a handful of running

757
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 3: backs missed you know, several games. So last year we

758
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 3: just didn't see that. So a lot of these backup

759
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 3: running backs didn't hit because of that. So I think

760
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 3: people might you know, look into that a little bit

761
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 3: too much from last year. But at the end of

762
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 3: the day, the running back position is very volatile and

763
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: you can you can land guys you know outside around

764
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 3: ten that hits. So at the end of the day,

765
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 3: you know, the first several rounds, I'm loading up at

766
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 3: receiver and running backs that fall to me or quarterback

767
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 3: tight end when it when it makes sense. So that's

768
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 3: kind of my general approach. But then you know, when

769
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 3: you're in the draft, you have to adjust. But the overall,

770
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 3: that's that's my plan heading in.

771
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's I think you hit on a key point.

772
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 1: Wait just now, when you said tight end, quarterback when

773
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: it makes sense. And it's so true because there's a

774
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: fragility to quarterback and tight end rankings because and and

775
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: ADP because if you look at this year, for example,

776
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: there's only about what eight to ten of them going

777
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 1: in the first h five rounds five six rounds combined.

778
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: There's just not many quarterbacks and tight ends going. So

779
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 1: if a guy goes around earlier, or a couple of

780
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 1: guys go around earlier, and someone else goes around later,

781
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it can be. It can lead

782
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 1: to wild swings in terms of value, and it's something

783
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 1: to consider a lot more. I think when you're in

784
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: high stakes leagues, leagues where you have to be not

785
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: just maybe twelve like eleven other people you know of

786
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,760
Speaker 1: your friends, but you got to be an entire industry

787
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: experts or something like that, that's where you really want

788
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: to take those bigger risk. And I say risk because

789
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 1: not that I think Rock Bauers is catching you know,

790
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: less than ninety balls if he's healthy. But what I

791
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 1: mean is there's just so much risk because there's so

792
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 1: many other wide receivers there and running backs that people

793
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 1: are fading that are also valuable. So it's really about

794
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: the kind of prioritization of wide receiver, then running back,

795
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: then tight end, and then quarterback, because even bad quarterbacks

796
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 1: are gonna there's there's just less of a drop off

797
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 1: versus a bad tight end could give you nothing. So

798
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: I think it's important to you know what, because now

799
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: I think the thing the new trend, and I'm glad

800
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 1: it's here, is there's a lot more super flex with

801
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 1: quarterbacks eligible, and there's a lot more two QB weeks,

802
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: but there's also just a lot more people willing to

803
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: wait to draft a quarterback. So talks about a little

804
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 1: bit more just like how you how you evaluate quarterbacks.

805
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: Because I think rushing upside is starting to come into it,

806
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: or it's always come into it, but it tends to

807
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 1: be something that is just it's almost like a cheat

808
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 1: code this day and age, even though people are onto it.

809
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, rushing upside has been key. You and I

810
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 3: have been harping on it for years now. That's how

811
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 3: we ended up with Jalen Hurts as a rookie several

812
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,360
Speaker 3: years ago. That's how you ended up on Jayden Daniels

813
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: last year. I think you know, rushing upside is the

814
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,359
Speaker 3: cheat code It's why someone like Justin Fields might not

815
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 3: be a great real life quarterback, but when he's playing,

816
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: he could put up top twelve numbers because of his

817
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 3: rushing upside. So it's absolutely critical. I think I would

818
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 3: say that for like one QB leagues, especially because we're

819
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 3: shooting for upside. Now you mentioned super flex two QB leagues.

820
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 3: That's a completely different strategy. That's when you're drafting quarterbacks

821
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 3: earlier and often because there's at any given time there's

822
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 3: only thirty two starting quarterbacks. So if they're start, if

823
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: you're starting twenty four of them across the league a week,

824
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 3: the supply is not there to everyone just sit there

825
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,760
Speaker 3: and wait for quarterbacks. So in two QB super flex leagues,

826
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,760
Speaker 3: they go much much faster, or they go much earlier

827
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 3: because there's higher demand. Now in those leagues, you know

828
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 3: the Sam Donalds, the you know Jordan loves c. J. Stroud,

829
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 3: guys that you know go outside the top twelve. I

830
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 3: think those guys are more valuable because you know they're

831
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 3: going to provide you a higher floor, which is important

832
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: in two QB leagues. So you know, my the way

833
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,399
Speaker 3: I evaluate quarterbacks and draft them changes significantly.

834
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 2: Whether you're starting one quarterback or two in a league.

835
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 3: But yeah, when it comes to fantasy upside, I think

836
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 3: this day and age, rushing is key because it gives

837
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 3: it gives a quarterback a higher floor and ceiling weekly

838
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 3: which is a hidden way to you know, really dominate

839
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 3: your league as having one of those. But you know,

840
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,760
Speaker 3: there's a lot more of them these days. So it's

841
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 3: you know, we have more of these guys comeing in

842
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 3: like Jade Daniels. Now Caleb Williams does have some rushing upside.

843
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll see more of that this year, Drake May.

844
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 3: So there's a lot more guys with rushing upside in

845
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 3: today's day and age. But yeah, at the end of

846
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 3: the day, I think that's that's one of the the

847
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 3: secrets I think when it comes to, you know, sleeper

848
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 3: picks in later round quarterbacks is if they do have

849
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 3: that rushing upside, they can really pop.

850
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 1: I would say that's one of those situations when you

851
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: start talking about these like weeks that straight from the norm,

852
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:20,720
Speaker 1: people like people aren't necessarily going to be even even

853
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:24,479
Speaker 1: an expert like you and I aren't playing as many

854
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:26,919
Speaker 1: of those weeks as we play traditionally or as we play,

855
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: you know, certain other weeks. So just remember that there's

856
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 1: always going to be a little bit more dissonance in

857
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 1: these situations. And but that's that means there's more to

858
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 1: exploit fundamentally if you kind of understand uh, that you

859
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 1: can get in it. So like, for example, if if

860
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 1: you're at the wrong end of a positional run at

861
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,439
Speaker 1: quarterback in a two QB or a flex league. First

862
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: of all, it makes a big difference whether it is

863
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 1: you know, it is just a two QB or it's

864
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 1: a two QB plus like, there's a lot of just

865
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 1: that can change a lot. But one of the things

866
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 1: you have to consider is, Okay, there's always going to

867
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:07,359
Speaker 1: be four teams that essentially miss out on a week

868
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 1: one starter, and you have to kind of say, how

869
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 1: do I win if I'm one of those fourteens. That's

870
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: that's a thirty three percent chance that there's gonna regardless

871
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 1: if everyone wants to have an arms race, there's only

872
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: so many of them, right, So you have to think

873
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 1: about things like, well, I can let people go on

874
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: a run and just treat it like a two QB

875
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 1: league in the sense of, okay, I'm only losing the

876
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 1: bye week. Really, if I if I end up with

877
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: say Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones or something, you have

878
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 1: to kind of think outside the box and see what

879
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,879
Speaker 1: you're gonna conceide. Just like real football, where h every

880
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 1: defense is trying to take away something. Every offense is

881
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: you know, they're aim they're gonna dictate terms and the

882
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: defense the best they could do, you know is pre

883
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 1: play is kind of decide what they want to take

884
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 1: away and go from there. So uh, it really requires

885
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 1: uh a lot of you know, not just not just

886
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:08,800
Speaker 1: following these general uh general rules of thumb, but really

887
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: looking into it and and and looking at you know,

888
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 1: the player value and okay, like who do we have

889
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 1: if you added the two guys up in our projections

890
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 1: and with your weeks ago, who would you you know

891
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 1: what what what combination would be better with the ceiling

892
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:26,839
Speaker 1: change versus the floor and whatnot. There's a lot to it.

893
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:27,800
Speaker 2: Uh.

894
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: But you know, we started talking about quarterbacks rushing upside

895
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:34,800
Speaker 1: for them, and one of my favorite things during the

896
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,720
Speaker 1: season to talk to you about is the pass catchers

897
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: because you and I both are really big on looking

898
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 1: at very specific metrics when it comes to pass catchers.

899
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 1: And to some people that might be simpler. Then you

900
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 1: think to some people it's more it's it's complex, or

901
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: you know, maybe it's not the hype ones. But talk

902
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: to me a little bit about how you're evaluating, especially

903
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 1: why receivers but in general pass catchers. You know, we're

904
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 1: starting at the route level.

905
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's let's talk about say wide receivers. You know,

906
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 3: first you want to see how often they're on the

907
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 3: field running a route. So we always talk about that

908
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:18,800
Speaker 3: route's run rate as the percentage of dropbacks the quarterbacks

909
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 3: taking where that that player is running a route. So

910
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 3: that's going to dictate if that if that player runs

911
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 3: around over ninety percent of the time, they're going to

912
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 3: be more consistent. There's usually they're usually a stud in

913
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 3: that case, you know they're a full time starter, but

914
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 3: they're going to be more consistent. Whereas someone like Jaden Reid,

915
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 3: he is, you know, a good wide receiver, starting wide receiver,

916
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 3: but he's not on the field all the time, so

917
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 3: he's going to be more dependent on game script that

918
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 3: type of thing, so he might feel less consistent. And

919
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 3: the other thing is how far down the field are

920
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:55,760
Speaker 3: they getting their targets? So that's their at their average

921
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 3: depth of target. So if that's between you know, zero

922
00:51:59,880 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 3: and ten yards closer line scrimmage, they're going to be

923
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 3: more consistent because they're getting you know, higher percentage throws,

924
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 3: whereas if somebody's getting targets downfield where they're you know,

925
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 3: they're a dots over fifteen yards, they're a downfield threat,

926
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 3: so they're they're getting lower percentage targets downfield where you

927
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 3: know they're going to catch less balls, and when they do,

928
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 3: it's an explosive play. So those those players to me

929
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 3: are going to be you know, lower floor, higher ceiling,

930
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 3: They're going to be vulnerable week to week where you

931
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 3: know there's more risk to that. They're a higher risk,

932
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 3: higher reward type player. So you got to know that

933
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 3: you're drafting that type of player if you are drafting

934
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 3: them versus somebody else, like a Keenan Allen type. Just

935
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 3: always consistently getting you know, catches in yards, more stable

936
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 3: guy and knowing when to take those those players. And

937
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 3: we've kind of hit on that where you know, earlier

938
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:56,919
Speaker 3: in the draft, I'm looking for more stability, whereas late

939
00:52:57,239 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: I'm looking for more boombust, you know, high ups.

940
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:01,879
Speaker 2: So just those are the.

941
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 3: Things that you know, I recognize when I'm projecting a

942
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:08,200
Speaker 3: player when it comes to the underlying data, is you know,

943
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 3: how often on the feel and what type of targets

944
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 3: are they getting.

945
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a really great way to break it

946
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 1: down because it goes back to how we started off

947
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 1: talking about quarterbacks and what tends to differentiate the ones

948
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: that hit for the most part is rushing upside. And

949
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 1: that is because if you're projecting a quarterback in terms

950
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:37,280
Speaker 1: of his passing numbers, what you start to learn pretty

951
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 1: quickly when you test out different when you back test

952
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 1: different models, is that everything's very correlated to each other

953
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 1: with past, with passing. And what I mean by that is,

954
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 1: if you have a quarterback who is very efficient, but

955
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: you expect him to throw less, he's usually throwing less

956
00:53:57,640 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 1: because he was able to be even more efficient and

957
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:02,439
Speaker 1: get the same amount of yardage on less throws because

958
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 1: maybe it's team is better, maybe the schedule is easier,

959
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:08,280
Speaker 1: and whatnot. So there's a lot of kind of correlation

960
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 1: that cancels itself out and that it's the same thing

961
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:13,400
Speaker 1: with there is some there's some noise there with wide

962
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 1: received with past catchers in general, where you just be

963
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 1: you know, if you get a lower rate of targets

964
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 1: per route, it's not inherently a bad thing. You would

965
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 1: expect guys who go down the field more and get

966
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 1: more high value yardage to be targeted less, and they

967
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: they you know, there's what what you tend to see

968
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 1: more is a catchery also decreases. But a lot of

969
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 1: times that just comes down to the quarterback accuracy. So

970
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 1: a quarterback that's inaccurate tends to be more inaccurate the

971
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 1: more he goes downfield. So there's a lot there's a

972
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:50,759
Speaker 1: there's noise in past catcher data, and that's why it

973
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 1: is very important, I think to kind of break it

974
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: down into its components, and targets per route is a

975
00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 1: very sticky stop stat. And then for in terms of routes,

976
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,359
Speaker 1: you know, run per drop back, that route rate, it's

977
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:09,439
Speaker 1: very it's it's very predictable on a team level when

978
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 1: you know the player's role and for a lot of

979
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: the guys that are going to be Fantasy relevant, we

980
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,760
Speaker 1: have a pretty good idea of the range of outcomes.

981
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 1: And so for example, the average wide receiver one will

982
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 1: kind of be around ninety percent the number two receiver

983
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:24,840
Speaker 1: will be about eight somewhere, you know, eight to ninety

984
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 1: percent in terms of his routes run rate. The number

985
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:29,320
Speaker 1: three guy will be in that fifty to seventy range,

986
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 1: and so on and so forth. The other guys will be below,

987
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 1: you know, kind of just rounding it out. They usually

988
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: have about two point seven the average team two point

989
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: seven wide receiver routes per drop back, and then running

990
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 1: backs usually is one. So it's just how often is

991
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,799
Speaker 1: a back can be out there? Third down snap don't

992
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:49,839
Speaker 1: really matter as much, but yeah, running back usually will

993
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 1: take about about the sixty to seventy percent of his

994
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 1: team's backfield non quarterback design runs, and it'll be out

995
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: there about half the time on routes because block about

996
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 1: twenty percent of the time, and so you kind of

997
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 1: know these rates. Tight ends the kind of similar to

998
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 1: running backs in the blocking rate, unless they're just a

999
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 1: glorified slot guy. But these all these things are predictable,

1000
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 1: and then that's how you kind of get your your

1001
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 1: passing projections. Whereas when we talk about running backs, I'm curious,

1002
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 1: is you know, how do you evaluate running back given

1003
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 1: that at one point there was it was just Okay,

1004
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:30,919
Speaker 1: volume is more important than efficiency, but now every running

1005
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,480
Speaker 1: backs volume has kind of gotten down, so efficiency is

1006
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: clearly important, just as Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry Drafters

1007
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 1: last year. Right, So how do you just how do

1008
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 1: you kind of look at the running back position in

1009
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:43,839
Speaker 1: terms of an evaluation what goes into it?

1010
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1011
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 3: So running back, we have a lot of running back

1012
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: by committees where you know, some running backs get more

1013
00:56:57,000 --> 00:57:01,359
Speaker 3: work on say early downs, goal line work, whereas other

1014
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 3: running backs might see more work in the passing games.

1015
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:07,680
Speaker 3: So I kind of project running backs in buckets like that,

1016
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,040
Speaker 3: but I think more importantly when it comes to running backs,

1017
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 3: I do my big running back upside piece where I project,

1018
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 3: at least heading into week one, you know, the expected

1019
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 3: touches for each running back when everyone's healthy, and then

1020
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 3: how that might shift if anyone of the running backs,

1021
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 3: whether it's a starter or the backup, miss time. Because

1022
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 3: I think that's important to kind of gauge that's, you know,

1023
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 3: their their ceiling is a scenario where there their teammate

1024
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 3: that they're sharing this work with misses time, and how

1025
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 3: much of more of the pie do they pick up?

1026
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 3: So I look at it like a three dimensional lens

1027
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 3: in that way of you know who's getting what when

1028
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 3: everyone's healthy, and then what happens when somebody gets hurt.

1029
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 3: So again it's it's different levels. It's you know, the

1030
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 3: running the ball between the twenties around the goal line

1031
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 3: and pass catching work and and that's really kind of

1032
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 3: how all these running backs sort out. So yeah, that's

1033
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 3: why running back it's it's very tricky to project because

1034
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 3: there's a lot of moving pieces. At the end of

1035
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 3: the day, their end of season value can depend on

1036
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 3: some luck. It's it's if their teammate was healthy all

1037
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 3: season or not. You know, a lot of that comes

1038
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 3: into play. So that's that's a lot of what I'm

1039
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 3: looking at is you know, projecting everybody healthy and then

1040
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 3: when they're hurt and then kind of gauging everyone's upside

1041
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 3: from there.

1042
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 2: Exactly.

1043
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:43,439
Speaker 1: Because the average running back is gonna average about four

1044
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 1: and a half yards of carry, So you're talking about, Okay,

1045
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 1: the best guys in the league are going to get

1046
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 1: you like five, and the worst are going to still

1047
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 1: get you at four. Now, I know there's more variance

1048
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 1: to that, but that simplifies it a bit. And even

1049
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 1: per target running backs are getting much more than that

1050
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 1: throughout six per target, so there's a lot more to

1051
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 1: be gained by and this is something key another one

1052
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:09,720
Speaker 1: of those edges that we talked about off the top.

1053
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 1: There's a lot of different ways to get edges. Part

1054
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 1: of it is being accurate with your prognostications and rankings

1055
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 1: and projections and whatnot, but there's so many other things

1056
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 1: that go into that that maybe it's just harder to

1057
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 1: be good at and so the more of an edge

1058
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: you can have on it, the better. And I think

1059
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 1: one of the big things for me has been understanding

1060
00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 1: the organizational philosophy of a team of the coaches because

1061
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 1: a lot of times, especially with running backs, there's a

1062
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 1: lot out of their control. But what's in somebody's control

1063
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 1: is what role they play. So your point, are they

1064
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 1: going to play only early downs? Are they trusted in

1065
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:49,720
Speaker 1: past protection? Do they have to play pass protection just

1066
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 1: because someone else can't. So like Kyin Williams, you know,

1067
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 1: he's he was out there almost all the time, but

1068
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 1: he didn't catch many balls because he ended up having

1069
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 1: to protect me because they didn't really want core him

1070
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 1: to do it, so they gave him his touches early

1071
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:07,160
Speaker 1: It's like if you watch basketball, a knixt situation where

1072
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 1: you got to get Mitch Robb his minutes in the

1073
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 1: third quarter because in the fourth he's just a complete liability.

1074
01:00:13,320 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 1: So there's certain situations where a running back could actually

1075
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 1: get hurt from his backup being bad at something. And

1076
01:00:20,440 --> 01:00:22,439
Speaker 1: that's that's why you tend to find third down work

1077
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,439
Speaker 1: is not really as important as just being a good

1078
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 1: pass catcher. So you get target hits on early downs

1079
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 1: because if you're catching the ball on third down and

1080
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 1: probably means the team's punting. So just things like that

1081
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 1: to keep in mind, and then understanding the like the organization,

1082
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: what what are they looking for out of a running back.

1083
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 1: Sometimes you get guys come in and say we're gonna

1084
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 1: run this guy into the ground, Like you kind of

1085
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 1: saw that coming with the Eagles because they paid you

1086
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:48,800
Speaker 1: know that they paid a hefty price for Saquon where

1087
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes you see the opposite you see okay,

1088
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 1: there's been more of a committee this this coach like Shanahan,

1089
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 1: we talked about it all the time. It's even if

1090
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,480
Speaker 1: you're trying to find that handcuff for mcafe free, be

1091
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:03,880
Speaker 1: careful because ex usually the guy after the guy after

1092
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 1: the guy in the chiefs backfield. The guy who's coming

1093
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 1: into the year as the number one guy hardly ever

1094
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 1: hits because Andy Reid doesn't like to run, and so

1095
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:16,400
Speaker 1: that creates variants in itself, and then he's not very

1096
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 1: loyal to They don't price the high premium on uh,

1097
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 1: they're running back room in the sense of it's all

1098
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 1: about mahomes in the passing game, so and really just

1099
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:29,200
Speaker 1: Mahomes because and so everyone else is interchangeable. They'll switch

1100
01:01:29,240 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: guys up if they need to very quickly, and so

1101
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 1: just kind of understanding things like that can give you

1102
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,800
Speaker 1: a big edge because again, a lot of times what

1103
01:01:37,840 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: it can do is put you onto fading somebody that

1104
01:01:40,640 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 1: maybe no one else has a strong opinion about. So

1105
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 1: they're not necessarily fading that player even if they're you know,

1106
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: it's it's not a he's not a guy that's being

1107
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: taken aggressively. And those are the little pivots that end

1108
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 1: up winning your league, because again, you only you have

1109
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 1: you have so many you have all the picks to

1110
01:01:57,760 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 1: potentially win even when you're not drafting. So that's how

1111
01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:05,920
Speaker 1: I kind of see it, and I want to close

1112
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 1: it out though, Sean with some great tips that you

1113
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 1: give every year. Some people who are still playing in

1114
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 1: leagues where you draft a kicker or defense or both,

1115
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,840
Speaker 1: which I would say are mostly probably best bozoning one

1116
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 1: that's taken them out completely. So talk to me about

1117
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 1: your strategies for kicker and defense in leagues that draft them.

1118
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 3: Well, my strategies, I have none, because what I like

1119
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,720
Speaker 3: to do is unless they force some leagues they force

1120
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 3: you to draft a kicker defense. You can get around

1121
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:44,640
Speaker 3: this still with my approach, but I don't draft for

1122
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 3: kicker defense for a couple of reasons. First is, those

1123
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:52,919
Speaker 3: two positions are very easy to stream in season. They're

1124
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 3: very matchup dependent. So every week I'm going to have

1125
01:02:56,480 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 3: a guy widely available ranked inside my top five or

1126
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 3: ten weeks and I could usually churn out, you know,

1127
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 3: a top ten kicker, top ten defense that way. So

1128
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 3: I just don't like spending draft keple on them. So

1129
01:03:08,720 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 3: what I like to do is I like to just

1130
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 3: take a couple more lottery picks of like back up.

1131
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 3: It could even be like a third string running back,

1132
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 3: just running backs that you know usually we're drafting during preseason,

1133
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 3: where you know running back could tweak his ankle and

1134
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 3: be now questionable for week one or miss time. So

1135
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 3: I've done this over the years of just taking an

1136
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:36,840
Speaker 3: extra couple running backs and it's cash out a couple

1137
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 3: of times. I think the first time I did it

1138
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 3: was when Leveon Bell there was some concern he might

1139
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 3: get suspended or something like that, so I just drafted

1140
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 3: James Connor with my last pick, and sure enough, right

1141
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 3: before the season started, I believe Le'Veon Bell suspended like

1142
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 3: four games or something like that. So all of a sudden,

1143
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 3: I had the Steelers starting running back for free. At

1144
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,840
Speaker 3: I could have drafted you know, some kicker, but instead

1145
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 3: I now had the RB one for the Steelers, so

1146
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:10,800
Speaker 3: that pan, oh, no, Le'Veon bella is a holdout that year. Yeah,

1147
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 3: as it happened, So yeah, anything can happen where I

1148
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: just you know, take a couple flyers and then you

1149
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:19,960
Speaker 3: just wait and see if they hit.

1150
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:20,880
Speaker 2: Usually they don't.

1151
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:24,160
Speaker 3: And then you know, come week one when it's time

1152
01:04:24,280 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 3: to you know, actually need a kicker defense, that's when

1153
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 3: I add my kicker and defense for week one and

1154
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 3: then kind of go from there. But I think it's

1155
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 3: just a tiny little quirk we're looking for all the

1156
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 3: edges we can right, so more times than not it

1157
01:04:40,120 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 3: won't pan out, but you know there's a chance it

1158
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 3: could hit. That's why I call them lottery tickets. But

1159
01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 3: just at the end of the day, if you can,

1160
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 3: don't draft a kicker defense instead, just you know, take

1161
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 3: a couple of flyers to see what happens the next

1162
01:04:54,600 --> 01:04:57,360
Speaker 3: you know, final week or two before the season starts.

1163
01:04:58,200 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that is like just the most Like I

1164
01:05:04,160 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: think the like the people who needed to hear that

1165
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 1: are going to benefit so much from it because it's

1166
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 1: it's just something that you don't even think, Like I

1167
01:05:13,920 --> 01:05:17,360
Speaker 1: didn't even think about that before you said it. I

1168
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:19,480
Speaker 1: I may it maybe have happened by accident, but I

1169
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 1: wasn't like purposely doing it. It's just such a great strategy.

1170
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:24,720
Speaker 1: And I think that's really how you have to think

1171
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 1: about these leaks, is that there are so many edges

1172
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 1: you could have, Like, for example, I think there's also

1173
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 1: a lot of experts that don't maybe put as much

1174
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:38,640
Speaker 1: into their kicker and defense projection. So there are things

1175
01:05:38,640 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 1: that you know when you're like, the easy way to

1176
01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 1: do it is you just look at a point projection

1177
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:47,520
Speaker 1: for the team which essentially usually comes down to their

1178
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:51,040
Speaker 1: Vegas implied team total. How many points Vegas has is

1179
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:55,440
Speaker 1: their you know, median each week that they're But there

1180
01:05:55,480 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 1: are other things, and there's also just in general, you

1181
01:05:58,240 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 1: got to be paying attention to league wide trends. I mean,

1182
01:06:00,800 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 1: there's more field goals than ever last year and a

1183
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:07,160
Speaker 1: lot of weeks are given more points for longer field

1184
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:10,360
Speaker 1: goals now, and so there are gonna be edges to

1185
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:12,919
Speaker 1: be had at kicker, so don't you know, and we

1186
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: like we like to just joke around a lot because they're,

1187
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 1: you know, of all the things they're doing, kickers usually

1188
01:06:18,440 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 1: are have like among the least priorities. But there's still

1189
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:24,320
Speaker 1: edges to be had at kicker in terms of the

1190
01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:29,920
Speaker 1: actual project evaluation process too. So there's you know, whatever

1191
01:06:30,040 --> 01:06:33,439
Speaker 1: edges actual disposal do them. And that's why I would

1192
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:36,320
Speaker 1: say too, when you talk about not drafting a kicker

1193
01:06:36,360 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 1: a defense, I've applied that to pretty much every position

1194
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 1: but running back. In certain drafts, because I mentioned earlier,

1195
01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:49,080
Speaker 1: there's gonna we we we look for about a certain

1196
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:51,680
Speaker 1: number of wide receivers in the early rounds and then

1197
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:53,720
Speaker 1: they kind of run out and they're all interchangeable, then

1198
01:06:53,760 --> 01:06:56,280
Speaker 1: it's like a frozen pond to wire receivers except their backup.

1199
01:06:56,320 --> 01:07:00,000
Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter. But if I draft five receivers

1200
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:02,160
Speaker 1: in the first ten rounds, even if I even if

1201
01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 1: I only drafted four, uh, and it's a two hour

1202
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 1: receiver league or something, it might not make sense for

1203
01:07:08,360 --> 01:07:11,000
Speaker 1: me to have a guy on my roster when right

1204
01:07:11,240 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 1: I could pick up anyone when it comes time for that,

1205
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:18,360
Speaker 1: or multiple guys. So it's really about just maximizing your

1206
01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 1: roster spot. And if you're if you're gonna be a

1207
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:23,320
Speaker 1: commissioner and play an active rolling that in your in

1208
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:25,919
Speaker 1: your leagus, it is something to kind of think about

1209
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:27,840
Speaker 1: to how you want how you want to approach that,

1210
01:07:27,920 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 1: because this is these are some of the edges that

1211
01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 1: I think go overlooked when everyone's just screaming about their

1212
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:38,240
Speaker 1: favorite weight round dart throw that's got like a one

1213
01:07:38,280 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: percent chance of hitting.

1214
01:07:40,160 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 2: So, yeah, will you made.

1215
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 3: A fantastic You made a fantastic point about kickers and defenses.

1216
01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 3: I still, you know, care about my projections and rankings

1217
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:51,320
Speaker 3: for them, but especially in season when you and I

1218
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 3: we talked about you know, a waiver wire streamer picks

1219
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:57,480
Speaker 3: for the week. We're both taking it very seriously with

1220
01:07:57,520 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 3: our projection, so we'll we'll be breaking down kicks and

1221
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 3: defenses every week based on what you said. There's all

1222
01:08:03,360 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 3: these factors that go into it that are you know,

1223
01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:09,680
Speaker 3: matchup specific things like that were like the environment they're

1224
01:08:09,720 --> 01:08:12,480
Speaker 3: playing in. So during the season, I absolutely take it

1225
01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:13,320
Speaker 3: seriously because that's.

1226
01:08:13,280 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 2: Kind of what I do. I just roll with the

1227
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 2: you know, the flow.

1228
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:19,920
Speaker 3: During the season, I'm I'm adding dropping kickers and defenses

1229
01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:22,880
Speaker 3: every week. So it's it's very important to have good

1230
01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:26,479
Speaker 3: weekly projections on those, which we both do. And yeah,

1231
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:28,920
Speaker 3: that's that's a great point of during the season, we

1232
01:08:29,280 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 3: take kickers and defenses very seriously.

1233
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:35,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just right at certain points, even when you're

1234
01:08:35,800 --> 01:08:39,080
Speaker 1: drafting in late August, anyone will do It's like you

1235
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:42,000
Speaker 1: ever been at a bar with a too late in college.

1236
01:08:42,439 --> 01:08:47,040
Speaker 1: You know what I'll talk about. So we'll have it

1237
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:51,360
Speaker 1: up with that. And this has been the seventh annual

1238
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:57,360
Speaker 1: Experts Guide to Fantasy Thanks for tuning in. We'll have

1239
01:08:57,560 --> 01:09:00,559
Speaker 1: plenty of more NFL content on both the Action Network

1240
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 1: podcast and of course on the Fantasy Flex. Will be

1241
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:09,480
Speaker 1: sure to subscribe, rate review wherever you listen, and I

1242
01:09:09,520 --> 01:09:12,120
Speaker 1: spoke about this a couple of times, I think earlier,

1243
01:09:12,120 --> 01:09:16,240
Speaker 1: but make sure to market calendar for our live event

1244
01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:21,040
Speaker 1: August twenty third at Joe's on Weed Street in Chicago.

1245
01:09:21,160 --> 01:09:25,200
Speaker 1: It is totally free to attend. You just need to RSVP.

1246
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 1: I'll be there, Sean will be there. I think we're

1247
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:32,200
Speaker 1: gonna have some special guests as well, so be sure

1248
01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:36,519
Speaker 1: to RSVP if you want to come through and kick

1249
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:39,479
Speaker 1: it with us. And of course, if you're trying to

1250
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:42,360
Speaker 1: find Sean, he's at the Underscore Odds Maker. I'm at

1251
01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond right those same hand, who's on the free

1252
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:47,519
Speaker 1: award winning Action app as we are on X and

1253
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:50,840
Speaker 1: until the next time, all I gotta say, let's get

1254
01:09:50,880 --> 01:10:11,160
Speaker 1: this money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1255
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:13,799
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1256
01:10:14,080 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1257
01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler