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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough for running again? So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 3: your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 3: It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus How old

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Speaker 3: earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network, presented to you by our friends

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Speaker 1: at Bet three six by. My name is Michael Leba

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Speaker 1: and joining me for another handicapping adventure through the Premier

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Speaker 1: League then through the rest of Europe are my co

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Speaker 1: host and colleagues B J. Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. Famous

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Speaker 1: last words, Boy do we love this slate? I mean

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Speaker 1: we just love it. But before we dive into it,

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Speaker 1: just a reminder that wonder Goal is presented to you

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Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five and Bet three six y

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Speaker 1: five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every sport should

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Speaker 1: be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point, every play,

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Speaker 1: from the moments that are legendary to the ones that

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Speaker 1: fly under the radar. See for yourself when you sign

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Speaker 1: up today with promo code Action to get three hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when you bet

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Speaker 1: just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's

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Speaker 1: never ordinary. At bet three sixty five, you must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If you or someone you

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Speaker 1: know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: and Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Not only is this a beautiful

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Speaker 1: board of soccer, but we're getting close to the World

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Speaker 1: Championship of Darts. Be keep your eyes peeled for some

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Speaker 1: talk about that, maybe on the Action Network podcast or

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Speaker 1: the Favorites, or maybe on Action Network dot Com. I'll

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Speaker 1: give you a little spoiler. Ross Smith at sixty six

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Speaker 1: to one is a banger long shot. Ross Smith, not

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Speaker 1: Michael Smith, who won it last year Lee.

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Speaker 2: B Company in twenty seventeen. It was an ultimate long

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Speaker 2: con to eventually get darts content on the Action Network podcast,

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Speaker 2: and he succeeded.

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Speaker 1: It's finally here speaking of darts. You know who's a

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Speaker 1: huge darts fan James Madison. And James Madison plays for

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Speaker 1: Tottenham Hotspur and that's where we're gonna start right now.

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Speaker 2: He will not be playing, He'll be at.

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Speaker 1: The darts City and Tottenham eleven thirty am. This is

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Speaker 1: your headliner for the weekend. City is a prohibitive minus

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Speaker 1: three three four favorite at home, Spurs traveling at plus

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Speaker 1: seven fifty and the draw is five to one. Of course,

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Speaker 1: City are on short rest after a wild, weird, meaningless

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Speaker 1: game against leipzigging the Champions League. I would have just

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Speaker 1: packed it up. I would have just told everyone to

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Speaker 1: go home. Leads don't even come out for the second half.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not Pep Guardiola. You guys like City here,

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Speaker 1: you want to light I'm not saying that you guys

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Speaker 1: want to lay the minus three thirty four, but it

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Speaker 1: looks like some sort of City derivatives for you guys.

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Speaker 1: Ain't that right? Anthony?

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Speaker 2: It's funny because we joked on the pod that like

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Speaker 2: Leipzig needed to win by three to turn the tiebreaker,

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Speaker 2: and at halftime, I was like, oh my god, like

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Speaker 2: they're up to nil, this is about to happen. They

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Speaker 2: scored their first two shots again, but that did not

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Speaker 2: come to pass. How are Spurs supposed to score in

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Speaker 2: this match? Because like I know that they have scored

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Speaker 2: I think every match in the end g Era like

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Speaker 2: they've been this great dynamic attacking side. A lot of

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Speaker 2: that has to do with the talent, and I thought

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Speaker 2: in the last game the matchup right, like they played

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Speaker 2: a Villa team that doesn't press, that leads a ton

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Speaker 2: of space in behind, that kind of plays this insane

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Speaker 2: high line defense, and that was like kind of perfect

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Speaker 2: for Spurs, who were really good in attacking that match

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Speaker 2: two point three expected goals and really should have gotten

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Speaker 2: more in those first you know, five to ten minutes,

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Speaker 2: three goals called back for offside, So you know the

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Speaker 2: attack was fine. You look at that, You look at

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Speaker 2: that and you'd say, yes, Spurs attack still elite, even

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Speaker 2: though they've had a ton of injuries. But you know,

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Speaker 2: let's go back now to before this, since all these

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Speaker 2: injuries really started you know, less than one expected goal

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Speaker 2: against Wolves. We were pretty mediocre defense. And now they

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Speaker 2: lose benten Ker, who I thought was their best player

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Speaker 2: in the first half of that match against Villa before

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Speaker 2: he went down with the injury. He's out. So that

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Speaker 2: means benzen KERR, Madison, Ris, Charleston all out and that's

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Speaker 2: pretty much the crux of this attacking group outside of Sunny.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's real questions about how Tottenham goes

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Speaker 2: up against you know, one of the best two or

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Speaker 2: three defenses in the world on the road and is

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Speaker 2: expected to cause chaos and implement their their strategy and

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Speaker 2: get on the board here. So I think it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be really hard for them. I think it's kind of

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Speaker 2: a contrarian play. You know, you're gonna hear a lot

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Speaker 2: about how Tottenham you know, can cause problems for City

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Speaker 2: with their pressure and their their ability to play you know,

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Speaker 2: their and ball. I'm not really sold on that here,

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Speaker 2: and I do think that, you know, there's different ways

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Speaker 2: to play this, right So I looked at City spread

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Speaker 2: and I think they could you know, run away with

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Speaker 2: this for sure, but I think that maybe the better

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Speaker 2: way to play this. You know, you're still laying minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty on minus one and a half, that's a

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Speaker 2: little bit higher than I'd even make it even if

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Speaker 2: you start accounting for injuries, so I think you're kind

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Speaker 2: of paying attacks there. But if you want to get

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Speaker 2: into the derivative way to play this, City to win

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Speaker 2: in a shutout is plus one fifty. I think that

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Speaker 2: that's my favorite way of playing this because they should

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Speaker 2: be able to shut down the Spurs attack given the limitations. Right.

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Speaker 2: You know, Spurs have been such a bogie team for them,

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Speaker 2: but that was Canaan Son working their magic and them

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Speaker 2: always kind of doing it on one or two shots

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Speaker 2: and chances. I think with just song it's much harder

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Speaker 2: to pull off. So City out win plus one fifty

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Speaker 2: is probably the best way for me to play this.

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Speaker 2: If you're going to play it, I do think the

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Speaker 2: Citizens have a few issues with Spurs and enrolled to

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Speaker 2: a victory at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I probably won't play it. Honestly, I am tempted

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Speaker 1: all the time when good teams get to these kind

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Speaker 1: of numbers, but there are so many underdogs on this

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Speaker 1: slate that I am in love with that I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: do my best to not force a bet here BJ

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's pretty interesting because if you look back

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Speaker 3: at what City has done against good competition as of late,

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Speaker 3: there's been some shaky offensive performances. Like if we go

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Speaker 3: back to the match, it's Arsenal have only half an

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Speaker 3: expectacle and it gets Brighton only point eight even against

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Speaker 3: Liverpool only one point three. So you can make the

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Speaker 3: case that City is just trouncing, like lesser to your competition.

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Speaker 3: But what I keep picturing in my head Spurs trying

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Speaker 3: to press and playing a high line with Ben Davies

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Speaker 3: and Rick Dyer against Holland and Alvarez and Doku, and

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Speaker 3: I don't see that going very well for them quite frankly,

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Speaker 3: and is not going to change. He's not going to

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Speaker 3: do what teams like Liverpool and Chelsea have done and

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Speaker 3: sit more in a compact, narrow defensive shape and try

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Speaker 3: to limit Citi's center progression. They're going to press like

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Speaker 3: they're going to try to press City and they're going

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Speaker 3: to try to cause problems, which they may be able

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Speaker 3: to force a couple high turnovers here and there. But

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Speaker 3: I thought against Liverpool, you know, the big thing with

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Speaker 3: City and their build up play was Johnstones is finally

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Speaker 3: getting back healthy and he was on the bench, you know,

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Speaker 3: for the last two matches. But Akanji has moved into

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Speaker 3: that inverted center back role really really nicely. It was

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Speaker 3: very very good against Liverpool, which gives City now that

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Speaker 3: option of inverting how they want to. So I find

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Speaker 3: it very hard to believe that Todam is going to

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Speaker 3: keep City out of their net at least twice. So

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Speaker 3: I'll be laying it the City. I'm gonna go a

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Speaker 3: little in the alt market.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: You get City minus two and a half at two

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Speaker 3: to one. That's probably where I'll be going with this one.

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Speaker 3: I don't really want to lay minus one and a half

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Speaker 3: of minus one twenty because there is the potential that

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Speaker 3: once Toddham falls behind that they just keep trying to

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Speaker 3: press and just keep playing the high line and this

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Speaker 3: can get uglier and uglier and uglier. And listen, Pep

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Speaker 3: knows that Spurs is his bogie team, like He's mentioned

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Speaker 3: it many many times when people have asked him, So

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Speaker 3: I think he might be off for a little bit

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Speaker 3: of blood in this one, especially when has so many injuries.

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Speaker 3: So City minus two and a half two to one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and they've played well defensively at home against those

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Speaker 2: big sides, right like they played home home Newcastle home Liverpool,

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Speaker 2: Arsenal was away home Brighton and they have really not

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Speaker 2: conceded much from a chances perspective, all under one XG

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Speaker 2: and all those attacks are better than the current one.

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Speaker 2: Tottenham's rolling out. I mean they didn't even start dire

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Speaker 2: last match. They started Emerson Royale next to Ben Davis

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Speaker 2: and the defense. Just Imagineer, I imagine DIYer comes back

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Speaker 2: into the team here just because he did. You know,

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Speaker 2: if you if you go back a little bit at

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Speaker 2: Spurs last year it was Dyer who really I thought

185
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Speaker 2: maybe had one of the best games of his life

186
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Speaker 2: against Holland in the match they won. But I think

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Speaker 2: that there's some real issues with whoever they play at

188
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Speaker 2: center back in this system, given the difference between those

189
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Speaker 2: two you know, the two they're going to play and

190
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:22,360
Speaker 2: the two they would normally go. And this is the

191
00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,280
Speaker 2: last match that Romero will be suspended, so they will

192
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Speaker 2: get him back, which should help they have the Hammers

193
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Speaker 2: could be a good bylow spot. We'll see what the

194
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Speaker 2: injuries look like come then next.

195
00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:38,640
Speaker 1: Week Newcastle and Manchester United up next. Newcastle MNUS one

196
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Speaker 1: O six Red Devil's traveling at plus two sixty and

197
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Speaker 1: the draws plus two sixty five. We're all on Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: But I just really quickly want to touch on one thing.

199
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Speaker 1: Newcastle sixty five to one to win the Premier League.

200
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Speaker 1: I think if they get eliminated like outright from European

201
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Speaker 1: football in a couple of weeks, it becomes a little interesting. Anyways,

202
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:03,400
Speaker 1: That's just something if you guys want to touch on

203
00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:08,080
Speaker 1: while we break down this game. I don't we'd say

204
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Speaker 1: this a lot now, but I would love to beat

205
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Speaker 1: the person who was looking at bet Manchester United at

206
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,160
Speaker 1: the spot. I know they beat they, you know they

207
00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,640
Speaker 1: by the score line. It looked like they got right

208
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,640
Speaker 1: or continued their get little get right spell in the

209
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,880
Speaker 1: Premier League with three nil against Everton on the road

210
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Speaker 1: in a tough spot. But then they go to gallatass

211
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,360
Speaker 1: Eye and choke away another two goal lead and the

212
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:34,240
Speaker 1: defense looks like shambles, and they're just they're nowhere near

213
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 1: as good as Newcastle and they're on the road. So

214
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Speaker 1: I like Newcastle here. I know you two do as well.

215
00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:40,480
Speaker 1: You can go first b J.

216
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:45,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so funny enough, Michael. That Everton match was the

217
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,680
Speaker 3: first time Manchester United has won by multiple goals this season.

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Speaker 3: Funny enough, And of course they lost the XG battle.

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Speaker 3: So Manchester United since October seventh has picked up the

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Speaker 3: most points in the Premier League. They have won five

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Speaker 3: of their last six matches. Ten hog army fifteen points.

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Speaker 3: Trivia question for you too, how many expected points do

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Speaker 3: you think Manchester United got in those six matches?

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Speaker 2: Seven point five very.

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Speaker 1: Close, Michael, seven point two.

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Speaker 3: Seven point eight. So that's how much drastically they have

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Speaker 3: been overperforming. And listen, we've already seen this match once

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Speaker 3: this season. It was at Old Trafford. Newcastle played their

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Speaker 3: B team and they ripped them apart with their four

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Speaker 3: or five to one press, like United couldn't play through

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Speaker 3: essentially them. And it was a time where Newcastle was

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Speaker 3: in a really bitterly, really bad spot because of injuries

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Speaker 3: and European excuse me, Champions League obligations and that they

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Speaker 3: just didn't have the legs to press. So that's when

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Speaker 3: Eddie Howe vealed this new pressing structure and it completely

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Speaker 3: worked against United. They weren't and they weren't able to

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Speaker 3: play through the build out through the back. They were

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Speaker 3: forced to play very transitional and again I say it

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Speaker 3: so many times. When you are forced to play a

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Speaker 3: transition back and forth match with Newcastle, that's how they

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Speaker 3: want you to play, and they will kill you every

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Speaker 3: time you try to do that. Now, I think we

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Speaker 3: need to address that. Newcastle conceded over five expectacles to

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Speaker 3: PSG in the Champions Well, but I'll say this, but yes,

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Speaker 3: it was somewhat of a terrible performance. But I will

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Speaker 3: say the first twenty twenty five minutes they were pressing

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Speaker 3: normally and they were causing some problems. Then they scored

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Speaker 3: and then they basically sat off in a defensive structure.

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Speaker 3: And when you give PSG and the amount of attacking

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Speaker 3: talent that they have time and space on the ball,

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Speaker 3: they will kill you. And that is exactly what happened. Now.

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Speaker 3: Manchester United is nowhere near that type of team. They

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Speaker 3: are not able to build out of the back right now.

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Speaker 3: They continually kept turning the ball over against galatats Ride,

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Speaker 3: so that means again they're gonna have to play the

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Speaker 3: ball long and play a transitional match with Newcastle, which

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Speaker 3: is exactly what you do not want to happen. Even

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Speaker 3: if we go back to last season at Saint James Park,

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Speaker 3: Newcastle killed United. It was only two nothing, but xtually

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Speaker 3: was three point seven to point four. In that match,

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Speaker 3: Newcastle forced nine high turnovers and a pass per defensive

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Speaker 3: action of seven point two. I think they can do

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Speaker 3: that again here in this match. And even if they can't,

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Speaker 3: and that means United sending every goalkick along, which I

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Speaker 3: don't think they're gonna do as well. But if United

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Speaker 3: without Castlemiro, without Christian Erickson, without Mason Mount, how are

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Speaker 3: they building out of the back against this press. I

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Speaker 3: don't see how it's gonna happen. And again we say

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Speaker 3: it all the time. This is Newcastle change Saint James

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Speaker 3: Park plus one point four eight expected old differential per

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Speaker 3: ninety minutes since the start of last season, and they

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Speaker 3: just killed Chelsea four to one. So I have Newcastle

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Speaker 3: minus one fifty five in this match. They are healthy enough,

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Speaker 3: I would say, and they're starting eleven to warrant that number.

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Speaker 3: So I like them at even money.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's funny because one of the main reasons that

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Speaker 2: they have taken more points than expected in the left

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Speaker 2: last month has been andre Onanna, who has been one

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Speaker 2: of the best shot stoppers in the prem And I

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Speaker 2: mean if you I mean, look, we all had galatass

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Speaker 2: Rye on net, like the game was pretty even, but

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Speaker 2: like we only were in that game because of Andrea today,

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Speaker 2: so it was alarming. You know, what's his confidence level

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Speaker 2: right now? I think, you know, United going on the

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Speaker 2: road again after a really tough road trip to Turkey

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Speaker 2: and now a really tough road trip you know where

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have to play a very physical Newcastle team,

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Speaker 2: and look like the Magpie's defensive issues in Europe have

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Speaker 2: been well documented. It's something I said I was concerned

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Speaker 2: about on Sunday in our show and I said, look

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Speaker 2: like their two worst defensive games of the entire season

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Speaker 2: both came against Milan and Dortmund, two teams that we

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Speaker 2: don't really think that highly of, So what does that mean?

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Speaker 2: And then they went and had their worst defensive performance.

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Speaker 2: So now if you just take like, okay, their worst

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Speaker 2: defensive games all year, all three of them happened in Europe.

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Speaker 2: So what is it about those trips? Is it play style?

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Speaker 2: Is it the rerapnel let him be as physical? Is it?

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Speaker 2: Actually I don't know. I don't have an explanation for it,

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Speaker 2: but there's it's it's more signal than noise when it

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Speaker 2: happens on three separate occasions. So you know, Newcastle back

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Speaker 2: in the prem where they've been an excellent defensive in

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Speaker 2: that year, yeah, and back at home, like it's it's

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Speaker 2: very strange. It's something to note, like if they're gonna

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Speaker 2: go down, I think they're probably gona end up in

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Speaker 2: Europa League now, so I guess they could, they could

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Speaker 2: still get through, but they're most likely going to be

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Speaker 2: in the Europa League if they are, Like, let's make

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Speaker 2: a note of that before they have to make a

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Speaker 2: road trip to like whoever the hell they're going to

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Speaker 2: play the Europa League, Olympiacos or something, Yeah, Leverracusen. But

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Speaker 2: so you know, from from the matchup perspective, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I make Newcastle minus one twenty five, I don't really

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Speaker 2: and I think I'm light if anything, because I have

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Speaker 2: actually bumped United because I think they have played better

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Speaker 2: in the last three matches. But it's just stunning to

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Speaker 2: me that that this line is where it is given

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Speaker 2: given them mid old issues for United and the fact

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Speaker 2: that Newcastle, like their defense has got problems, but their

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Speaker 2: midfield as healthy as it's been and they still have

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Speaker 2: these socks.

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Speaker 4: So also I should mention we have midweek premiarily coming

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Speaker 4: home next week and Chelsea's going to play United and

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Speaker 4: that matches a pick him right now at Old Trafford,

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Speaker 4: which I found very interesting.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's about where i'd have it.

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Speaker 3: I agree, but then then you know, you compare that

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Speaker 3: to what we have your Newcastle. It's interesting.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited for the next one here. No we got

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Speaker 1: any warren Zevon. You can play Arsenal minus three point

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Speaker 1: fifty hosting Gary O'Neil's Wolverhampton. Ooh, eight to one, five

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Speaker 1: to one is the draw?

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Speaker 2: Real quick Wolves.

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Speaker 1: That's season. They are big game hunters. There was I

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Speaker 1: guess Brentford and Brighton before this, but Wolverhampton on the

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Speaker 1: season they have four wins and three draws to go

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Speaker 1: along with six losses. And amongst those results that they

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Speaker 1: got they had draws with City, Newcastle, Aston Villa, win

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Speaker 1: against Spurs and a win against Everden that is age

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Speaker 1: well they beat City. Yeah, this is this is a

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Speaker 1: team that punches up g and am I wrong with

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Speaker 1: and saying that Gary O'Neal gave some some of the

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Speaker 1: big clubs some trouble last year too with Bournemouth BJ.

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Speaker 2: How long did it take bournemouthsh to score against Arsenal

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Speaker 2: when we had the team total over last year when

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Speaker 2: Gary O'Neal was managing the club.

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Speaker 3: Seventeen seconds I believe it was. I believe it was

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Speaker 3: seven seven seconds, number seven.

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Speaker 2: It was seven. They literally ran like it was like

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Speaker 2: an NFL game where they had the first play scripted

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Speaker 2: to throw a deep ball and it literally worked. They scored.

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Speaker 2: It was one nil.

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Speaker 3: That was the one where he just kept betting Bournemouth

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Speaker 3: to score like every match.

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Speaker 2: Every game. And guess what we should probably be doing

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Speaker 2: it with Wolves. Yeah, I mean we're getting minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: Look I have said on this show and I think

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Speaker 2: we've been saying it all year like Arsenal defense is

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Speaker 2: like elite, elite, elite. But there will come a time

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Speaker 2: when the market overadjust to that. And guess what I

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Speaker 2: think this is it because Wolves have been a Premier

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Speaker 2: League attack that's been pretty much league average this year

363
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Speaker 2: in every metric from box entries to crossing, two chances

364
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,359
Speaker 2: created to goals scored. Everything you want to look at

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Speaker 2: They're a league average attack, they're a little worse defensively,

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Speaker 2: and they've settled in to where they are and I

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Speaker 2: think the market has them pretty well pegged. But Arsenal

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Speaker 2: only mightus went ten to score against them. I mean

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Speaker 2: think about for you to be we'll say fifty to

370
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Speaker 2: fifty to score. Can con see to go at home

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Speaker 2: against the mid table team, you'd have to keep more

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Speaker 2: than fifteen to twenty clean sheets a year to actually

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Speaker 2: keep that pace. That's crazy to me, and I think

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Speaker 2: we've now hit the peak of the market on this

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Speaker 2: Arsenal defense. Another dominant showing today against Law and it's

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Speaker 2: time to go against it with with an attack that

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Speaker 2: we know is good in transition. I don't think NATO's

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Speaker 2: back based on the readings.

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Speaker 1: Does it matter, but their attack's been good.

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Speaker 2: We were like, oh they're in trouble. They lost Nato.

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Speaker 2: I mean this this.

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Speaker 1: Not this Bob, They're uh, this is impressive, teep like

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Speaker 1: this is a good.

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Speaker 3: Look.

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Speaker 2: I think managers, maybe we over eight sometimes, but like

386
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Speaker 2: little Potagy ball with this team would be a disaster'd

387
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 2: be so gross to watch. Hey, we have a but

388
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Speaker 2: wolves team tonell over minus one ten come on it.

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Speaker 1: I like the money line. I'll talk about it later.

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Speaker 1: Eight eight to one. I think it's it's a good

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Speaker 1: number on the I mean there's a I could just

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Speaker 1: end up being a one nil Wolves win here beat you.

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Speaker 1: I'd be a little nervous.

394
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Speaker 3: I am nervous. I'm flat out mean, there is something

395
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Speaker 3: you know.

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Speaker 2: Havertz gets a couple of goals. Very underrated Kai Haverts.

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Speaker 2: We've always been a Kai Haverts podcast. He gets a

398
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Speaker 2: couple of goals. That's encouraging for them. They finally get

399
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Speaker 2: their first big you know, they're Big five healthy at

400
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Speaker 2: the same time, Oda guard, Havertz, Martinelli, although I think

401
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 2: he was okay today, right he did easy come get hurt,

402
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: but I think he'll be okay. Sokka and Jay zuis right.

403
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: The big five are all playing, so you know, this

404
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 2: is go time. Arsenal's got a tough run of fixtures

405
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 2: coming up here. I know they have Liverpool coming up.

406
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 2: We're gonna find out what we're gonna get out of

407
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 2: this Arsenal attack now, Like if they don't start turning

408
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 2: the knob. I had a conversation about this today, Like,

409
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Speaker 2: I think Arsenal maybe the second best team in the

410
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 2: Champions League and maybe more suited to that competition because

411
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Speaker 2: of their style that they're playing right now kind of semioniesque,

412
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 2: but in the league, like they can't keep scraping by

413
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Speaker 2: with one nil wins. Like it's not gonna work in

414
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Speaker 2: thirty eight games when we have two elite teams Liverpool

415
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 2: and City, we're gonna be putting up two three goals

416
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Speaker 2: for fun. And that's my thing with Newcastle two. You

417
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Speaker 2: mentioned sixty five to one, Like as good as the

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Speaker 2: top three look right now, Michael, it seems really hard

419
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 2: for Newcastle, who's already had a points deficit, yep, also

420
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Speaker 2: surpass them given their death problems.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they need to get like healthy like now in

422
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Speaker 3: a hurry.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like this run is this is about

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Speaker 1: to be a run for Newcastle.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I am very nervous for this one,

426
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Speaker 3: this one. You know, this is obviously a bad spot

427
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Speaker 3: here for Arsenal with short rest coming off the Champions

428
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Speaker 3: League match. Thank you very much the Premier League for

429
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: making this play on Saturday after playing on Wednesday. That

430
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,880
Speaker 3: was very nice of you. But what I will say

431
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 3: which is encouraging for Arsenal is that Lowns and Wolves

432
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Speaker 3: have very similar out of possession structures. Lowns is a

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Speaker 3: five four to one and the Wolves is sometimes a

434
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 3: four or five to one, so very very similar structure,

435
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 3: similar pressing out of those structures. But Arsenal has been

436
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 3: an elite transition defense. They you know now that they

437
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 3: have you know, Declan Rice, with the Sinchenko inverting into

438
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 3: the middle and obviously having Saliba, it's very very difficult

439
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 3: to play through the middle when teams will actually win

440
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 3: the ball off Arsenal, and very few teams have been

441
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 3: able to win off them high So if Wolves had

442
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 3: somebody had Nato available and he could reacavoc down the

443
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 3: right side of the pitch, if sin Chinko was inverting

444
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 3: like it'd be a nightmare problem, but they don't have him. Also,

445
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 3: alt noris out for Wolves who has been really really

446
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 3: good for them in the.

447
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: Left back role, so he's an everting killer.

448
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if there's some question marks here, like you know,

449
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 3: where things go wrong for Wolves and everything like that.

450
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 3: But again, but eight one, and I've been very clear,

451
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 3: I just really like Gary O'Neal and I really like

452
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 3: what he's done with this team. So there will be

453
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 3: other opportunities to back Wolves, in my opinion, more neutral.

454
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 1: No better than this one, very few better than this one.

455
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 1: This is a good one, this is it's a beautiful spot.

456
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: This is a ten am kickoff. I should have noted

457
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: at the top that the City Spurs is eleven thirty

458
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: am on Sunday, that Newcastle United game is three pm,

459
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 1: so we have no early game on Saturday morning. Start

460
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: the action at ten am. Also at ten am, Brentford

461
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: laying minus two two three B a jet against Luton

462
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: Town plus five fifty and the draws plus three fifty.

463
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say that Lowton just have

464
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: shown more teeth than anybody would have projected the markets

465
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 1: projected of late a win and a couple of draws

466
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: in their last five, including one against Liverpool, the win

467
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 1: over Palace which is never easy, and are now over

468
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: one game clear of the drop zone the bottom three,

469
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: which of course.

470
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 3: Includes relegation battles.

471
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: So fascinating right now, I want to talk about it.

472
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 3: We'll talk about it. Well, your team's not going to

473
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: be in it much longer, all right, what do you think?

474
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one? I've got nothing

475
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: on Breadford and Lootontown. You're leaning towards surprise here past.

476
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like Brentford in this match, and I'm

477
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:59,360
Speaker 3: going to essentially do a moneyline parlay. I'm in probably Liverpool.

478
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 3: I know Anthony a ton of thoughts about Liverpool later,

479
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 3: so I'm just gonna echo what he has to say

480
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: that match against Fulham, but specifically for this match against Lutontown.

481
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 3: I've said this many times, but Brentford actually does profile

482
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: pretty well as a favorite because of how they switch

483
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 3: things tactically. When they're playing a team like Lutontown where

484
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 3: they're going to control more possession, They're going to switch

485
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 3: to a fourth et three. We're probably gonna se Neil

486
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 3: Malpaie on Saturday alongside with Lisa and Embuemo, and that

487
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 3: has been a very good attack when they have played

488
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 3: lesser competition since the start of last season. In twenty

489
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 3: six matches against teams in the bottom half of the table,

490
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 3: Brentford as a plus eighteen point five expected goal differential

491
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: and quite frankly, this is a terrible matchup for Lutontown.

492
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,199
Speaker 3: I love, I love our the hatters and everything, but

493
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 3: they can't defend in wide areas They're along the most

494
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 3: crosses in their penalty area, They've conceded the most expected

495
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: goals off set pieces, and they have a minus eleven

496
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: expected gold differential away from home. And they are going

497
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 3: to be without two of their key players, Marvelous Nakamba

498
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 3: and Isakabore. So it's just a really really bad spot

499
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: for them. So it worries me to lay it here

500
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 3: with with Brentford. I am showing a little value on

501
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: minus one, but I would honestly just prefer to parlay

502
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 3: them with one of the bigger favorites on the sports.

503
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 3: I'm gonna probably them with Liverpool. Yeah, and again Anthony

504
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: will talk about them later in the podcast on twenty

505
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 3: excuse me, that probably plays.

506
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 1: Out minus one twenty sounds sounds delightful. Yeah. Also right

507
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: around that area is Burnley. There mightus one twenty five

508
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: hosting Sheffield United plus three fifty and the draw here

509
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: is plus two sixty relegation six pointer between bottom of

510
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: the table Burnley and Sheffield United, who are in eighteenth plays.

511
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: I think the Blades are actually worth the shot here

512
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 1: given how Burnley plays like. I think that this match

513
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 1: goes one of two ways. Burnley wins four to one

514
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 1: or just absolutely crutches them playing that you know, cocaine

515
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: heavy metal styles that they eat playing, or Sheffield United

516
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 1: defense well enough frustrates them and Edges went out here.

517
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: I just I don't trust that Burnley has the pieces

518
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: to play even against bad teams. I just don't trust

519
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: them to to to be able to pull it off.

520
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: I think we kind of saw it in their last

521
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: match against west Ham. They should have got out of

522
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 1: there with three points and they blew it like this

523
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 1: is a I think this is a good spot to

524
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: back Sheffield United. Not many, not many of those come

525
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 1: around and this is I think one of them.

526
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 3: You bet you, I like under two and a half.

527
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 3: I don't know if this is the spot here for Sheffield.

528
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: Their attack's been terrifle, just so bad and they're just

529
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 3: getting no production out of any of their attackers. You know,

530
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: Cameron Archer came over from millsbro and was supposed to

531
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: be this like threatening pacy forward that can get in

532
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 3: behind defenses and he's not even averaging point one x

533
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 3: chiep for ninety minutes. Oliver mcburnie's when they're their best

534
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 3: production guy, he's just point three ex non penalty xtreep

535
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 3: for ninety so they just don't have anything going forward

536
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: in tech and I think that this match, well you'll see,

537
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 3: is quite a lot of stale possession because Burnley is

538
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 3: going to build out of the back. They're going to

539
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: progress the ball, you know, try to progress the ball

540
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 3: through the lines, but once they get in towards the

541
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 3: final third, they just have nothing. They've created literally nothing

542
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 3: against all of these teams. They failed even to create

543
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 3: over one non penalty against west Ham, you know, point

544
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 3: eight against Bournemouth, one point one against Brentford, point seven

545
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 3: against Chelsea. Like their biggest non penalty output this season

546
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 3: from an x GIF standpoint was one point three against

547
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 3: Tottenham and they were losing five to one for most

548
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 3: of that match, so they got a couple at the end.

549
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 3: And playing against a team that was you know, obviously

550
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 3: plays a very high line and presses quite a bit,

551
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: Sheffield United is going to sit in a low defensive

552
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 3: block and they are going to dare Burnley to break

553
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 3: them down. And I don't see how this match doesn't

554
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 3: end in some type of zero zero one nail, some

555
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: type of scenarios. So I only projected two point one

556
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 3: goals for it. So I like under two and a

557
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: half at minus one ten. I think it's probably around

558
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five or minus one thirty. Jeevesed on

559
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 3: the under.

560
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 2: They've gotten three results this year total Sheffield United. They

561
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 2: needed own goal luck against Pickford to get one result.

562
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 2: They needed a stoppage time after stoppage time penalty against

563
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: Wolves and a goal from thirty yards to get a win,

564
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: and then they needed a red card to get a draw.

565
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: Their numbers are far worse than Burnley's, even as bad

566
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 2: as Burnley has been, and they're on the road and

567
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: I'm only like minus one twenty at home against this

568
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 2: team that could be the worst we've seen in a

569
00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: long time. I think is a little cheap on Burnley. Ah,

570
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: don't want to bet it lay juice with Burnley, not necessarily,

571
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: but I do think it's a short yep.

572
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 3: It's true. Honestly, I think one of the most interesting

573
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 3: things is how long does Burnley stick to company? Quite frankly,

574
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: because it's it's listen. I mean, you can say that

575
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 3: you have a process and that you're like building for

576
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 3: the future, and then say this is a great project,

577
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 3: but nobody survives losing like thirteen straight matches just like

578
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: a URI's Fisher over nil like he was there for

579
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 3: life pretty much the way he brought them up. But

580
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: he lost thirteen straight and you just don't survive that.

581
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: So it'll be very interesting to see how long you last.

582
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 3: If Burnley just keeps losing, I may have wolves coming

583
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: up away next.

584
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: I mean, they should have beat west Ham. They were

585
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: clearly better too that.

586
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: They should have, but they did it.

587
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 3: They can't trust him, but they didn't.

588
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 2: Like I don't care about that, like I don't.

589
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: I mean, when a team's got eleven lasses to one

590
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: win in one draw, I think you could start caring

591
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: about it a little bit. Like I get that you

592
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: want to look at the underlying stuff, but at some

593
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 1: point you got to be.

594
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 3: Like the underlying stuff is bad enough for Burnley too.

595
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 3: It's they're averaging point eight non penalty for ninety Like

596
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 3: that's awful. That's gonna get you relegated.

597
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: I don't think that this should be odds on I

598
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: guess anybody.

599
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

600
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 1: Forrest and Everdon Now Everton is a road favorite plus

601
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: one sixty traveling to the city ground, where Forrest is

602
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: plus one seventy five. The draw is plus two twenty

603
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 1: five tongue and cheeked it on our Champions League episode.

604
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: We apologize for the motivational spot of the year coming

605
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: up completely.

606
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 2: They weren't flat, they just missed everything.

607
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: We apologize for losing the bet. We're allowed to apologize

608
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: for losing a bet.

609
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 2: That's fair. I won't apologize for the for the handicap

610
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 2: Everton again bet b JA yep.

611
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 3: Quite frankly, I think it's a bad match up here

612
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 3: for Nottingham Forest. The low block was broken down against Brighton.

613
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 3: I know that Brighton had a penalty and then it

614
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 3: was only point seven non penalty. But again from a

615
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 3: Nottingham Forest perspective, find it very hard to believe that

616
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 3: they are just going to hand the ball to Everton

617
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: at home and just say hey, Everton here, break us

618
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: down like this is going to be very root one

619
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: football both ways, a lot of long balls sending up

620
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 3: to the strikers and Nottingham forrest. Quite frankly, going up

621
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: against Everton is a bad matchup because not only do

622
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 3: they struggle defending crosses, but they also have conceded the

623
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: most goals off of set pieces. That's a problem when

624
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 3: you're playing a Seanditch team and Tywo was out, so

625
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 3: that means Chris Wood's going to be up top. That

626
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 3: could significantly hampers your attack, especially for a match that's

627
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: going to be played very much in transition. Chris Wood's

628
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: not a transition striker. He is a hold the ball up,

629
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: big set piece type of player. He's not the type

630
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 3: of player like Tiwo is and Cingari is also going

631
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 3: to be out for Notingham Forest, which is a big

632
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: loss for them. He's averaging the most tackles and interceptions

633
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 3: for ninety minutes. He's been an incredible ball stopper coming

634
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 3: over from PSB. So if you're gonna play again a

635
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 3: very transitional match, that's a problem with how you stop

636
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 3: Everton and Everton's just what makes them honestly really good

637
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: right now, Michael is that dominic Kalvin Lwin's healthy. Like

638
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 3: it's simple enough, but he just he makes such a

639
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 3: difference to their attack. And not only just with his

640
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: production and how good he is playing the ball in

641
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 3: the air and on the ground, but he's such a smart,

642
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 3: astute tacker, being able to drag defenders out of space

643
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 3: and provide that space for the other Everton attackers to

644
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 3: get forward. So I quite frankly, I think Everton should

645
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 3: be around plus one thirty five plus one thirty here,

646
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 3: especially if Nightingham Forest is not gonna have Tiwo and

647
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 3: they're really bad on set pieces, so Everton pick them.

648
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 3: Minus one thirteen is the best price you can find

649
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,479
Speaker 3: right now. I just think everything's really good, quite frankly,

650
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 3: and they're just a better version of what new of

651
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 3: Nottingham for US is trying to be.

652
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: Everton only wins when I don't bet them when I pass,

653
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: so out of respect for Michael, I'm gonna pass.

654
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 3: Thank you round Robin. Michael will throw them in.

655
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 1: I think I think that they make like a I

656
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: think that's probably the way you'd want to do it. Honestly.

657
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: It's like throw them in with like some college football

658
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: conference title games or whatever, because I hate them so

659
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: much sometimes Finance United. Yeah, I just kind of believe it.

660
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

661
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 2: I laughed when the bike went in.

662
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: I was like, A, yeah, I think that. I think

663
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: I just.

664
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 2: Disappointed with the second half, you know, because you're only

665
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 2: a goal out, you're only a goal die. Yeah, maybe

666
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: really didn't play that well in the second half, you know,

667
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: we didn't get a Galatasselryan effort out of them, which

668
00:33:59,160 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: I had hoped for.

669
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Born with now plus two forty, hosting red Hot,

670
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: Aston Villa minus one o six and the jaw is

671
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 1: plus three hundred. Here I think that I don't know

672
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: if we do it every year at Action Network, but

673
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: the app they used to do like an Action Network

674
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 1: rap like Spotify does.

675
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: I think we're doing it again this year and.

676
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:32,280
Speaker 1: No surprise, but the team that I won the most

677
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: units on my best betting team last year was Brentford

678
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: and then Japan from the World Cup just because of

679
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 1: that crazy run. But I think if I had a

680
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three version of it and it gave me

681
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 1: a bogie team, it would be Villa. I think I

682
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:51,720
Speaker 1: am one for like sixty two betting Aston Villa matches

683
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: in my life, So I really want to bet Bourne

684
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: with here and Anthony. You did something very nice for

685
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: me just before by passing on the evident match so

686
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 1: I could win. Maybe I'll just pass on this one

687
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: because I want to bet Born Myth. But I know

688
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 1: you want a bet boor In Myth, But I since

689
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: I can't beat Aston Villa, maybe I'll set it out

690
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: for you.

691
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:13,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think bournemth You know, they underperformed their talent level.

692
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 2: We believed in this team at the beginning of the year,

693
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 2: we said they were not as bad as they were

694
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 2: last year, that they were taking steps forward. Then they

695
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 2: went on this horrible run and a lot of it

696
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 2: was scheduled driven, and they have now kind of just

697
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 2: basically beaten up on some bad teams. So I'm not

698
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 2: gonna like turn the corner and say that this team

699
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 2: is all of a sudden fixed, but we can't ignore

700
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 2: these dramatic home road splits for aston Villa and if

701
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 2: you just faded Villa every road match, even though they

702
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: did beat Spurs again, they were getting badly outplayed, had

703
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: a couple of breaks go their way with var not

704
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,959
Speaker 2: breaks but like close off side decisions go their way,

705
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: and still conceded more expected goals than they had in

706
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: the match. And so you know, Tottenham in that match,

707
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 2: we're able to create two point three. They went to

708
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 2: Forest and you know, we're down to nil pretty early on.

709
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: Conceded early in that match. Every away match this year

710
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 2: has been a complete disaster defensively and a struggle, and

711
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 2: they just don't really put enough pressure on the ball.

712
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 2: So I think Bournemouth as a team who has struggled

713
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 2: with high turnovers and a team who doesn't know how

714
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: to get out of their own way at times. It

715
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: just hands goals to teams at home catching a half.

716
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: You know, we bet Forrest in this spot. I have

717
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: fourts slightly better than Bournemouth, but I still have value

718
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 2: on Bournemouth here, So give me the Cherries at home.

719
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: And I just really think that this Villa team continues

720
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: to be overvalued on the road this season, and that

721
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 2: this is not something particularly new either. We saw this

722
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: with Emery way back at Sevilla too, so it's just

723
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: a difference in play style that doesn't translate on the road.

724
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 2: And again like they have won the x G once

725
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: on the road all season long, and it was at

726
00:36:56,000 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: Burnley when they closed plus one hundred. Again, like, I

727
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 2: think Borne myths considerably better than that that team. So

728
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:06,479
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the Cherries at home and BJ

729
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 2: is going to disagree. We have a head to head.

730
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 2: I don't think I've won a head to head against

731
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 2: BJ all year so.

732
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 3: Well, We've only done like three of them. I feel

733
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 3: like we don't go ahead and we don't go ahead

734
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 3: to head that often. But I do like aston Villa.

735
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: I think the price a little too low on the

736
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 3: road here. This is what aston Villa does. They beat

737
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 3: up on the bottom half of the table. It's been

738
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 3: a theme since Emery has arrived in Birmingham. Is that

739
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: Why did they just fault up the table last year?

740
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 3: Is because they just kept beating bad teams over and

741
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:40,280
Speaker 3: over again since Emery arrived. Nineteen matches against the bottom

742
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 3: half of the table, aston Villa has a plus sixteen

743
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: point two expect to gold deferential and they've only lost

744
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,240
Speaker 3: the x she battle four times in those nineteen matches.

745
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 3: And quite frankly, I think the matchup is terrible for Bournemouth.

746
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 3: If you are going to cause problems for aston Villa,

747
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 3: you have to be an elite pressing team. Toddham was

748
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 3: first and pass per defensive action. I mentioned it last week.

749
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 3: Newcastle and Liverpool gave them a lot of problems. Bournemouth

750
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 3: is a far from an elite pressing team right now,

751
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: they're working their way towards it. They're getting better with

752
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 3: the hybrid press, but right now they sit just eighth

753
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: and passes for defensive action seventeenth in opponent build up

754
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 3: completion percentage allowed and tenth in high turnos. That is

755
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 3: not elite. Aston Villa is a really really good build

756
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 3: up team and I'm not so sure that Bournemouth can

757
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 3: stop them. So they are going to leave a lot

758
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 3: of open space going forward for guys like Ali Watkins

759
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 3: and excuse me, Diabi, and I'm not so sure that

760
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 3: they are going to be able to stop that. The

761
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 3: flip side of it, Lloyd Kelly is out for Bournemouth.

762
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 3: That's a big loss for them. And the offensive numbers

763
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 3: really haven't been that great for them either. And I

764
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 3: know their last two matches they put up well over

765
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,720
Speaker 3: two expected goals against a Newcastle team that was really

766
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,879
Speaker 3: really hampered by injuries and then beat the worst team

767
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 3: in the Premier League. That's great, you need to get

768
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 3: those points to steer it in the right direction, but

769
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 3: it's a really really bad matchup and even defensively, if

770
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 3: we look at what they have done against good competitionist

771
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 3: team this season or teams essentially that will build out

772
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 3: of the back, they can see three expectacles Liverpool two

773
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 3: point one, to Tottenham two point nine, to Brentford one

774
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 3: point to Chelsea one point eight nine to Brighton, three

775
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: point four to Arsenal and one point nine to City.

776
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna have another scenario here where aston

777
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 3: Villa is going to pount them, and I think it's

778
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 3: gonna be very similar to what we saw with Aston

779
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,439
Speaker 3: Villa and Burnley earlier on this season. The styles play,

780
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:41,280
Speaker 3: I think.

781
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 2: If you're trying to figure out a team, this is

782
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 2: more generic than this match specifically, Like over the course

783
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 2: of the season, we just took the raw expected goal

784
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: differential and you said, Okay, this is the team's true talent.

785
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 2: Who do you expect? Who do you think has played

786
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 2: way above what we expected this year? Who do we

787
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 2: think is played way below it? I would argue, relative

788
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 2: to my priors and kind of what I thought the

789
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: league would be this year, Okay, United is probably the

790
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: most below, but like relative to what we thought, Bournemouth

791
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 2: would probably be second for me, and then the most

792
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: over expectation. I did not think Villa would have a

793
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 2: plus point five actually difference per ninety this far into

794
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 2: the season. I thought they would be a closer to

795
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 2: like point one point two plus. So I think, you know,

796
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 2: preseason we would have probably gotten a pick here, maybe

797
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 2: Villa small favorite. Now I'm getting a half goal. I

798
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 2: know you have to take that into consideration, but I

799
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 2: think I still believe in this Bournemouth team enough to

800
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: back them. And I didn't even bet them last week

801
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 2: becau I'm an idiot plus one twenty and they dominated Sheffield.

802
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: But I do think they're improving.

803
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 1: Chelsea next hosting Brighton. Chelsea's odds on minus one forty

804
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 1: three at Stamford Bridge, Brighton traveling at plus three twenty

805
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 1: and a draw would pay out plus three thirty three.

806
00:40:56,440 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 1: These odds, obviously, and all the odds referenced from a

807
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: friends at bet three six five. BJ and I are

808
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 1: on the same side. You probably could surmise what it is,

809
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: but Anthony, you are a little cagey about how you

810
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 1: feel about this one.

811
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 2: I just think that, like we talked about Chelsea, the

812
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 2: teams they played the best against the teams that have

813
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:19,760
Speaker 2: gone after them and give them space to run into behind,

814
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: and that's exactly what Brighton's gonna do. So even though

815
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 2: I'm higher than the market on Brighton still and I

816
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,720
Speaker 2: think that there's probably a little bit of value on them,

817
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 2: I'm more likely to pass here unless this gets to

818
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: like a flat one where I don't have to lay juice.

819
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 2: I just think that this is a pretty favorable matchup

820
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 2: for Chelsea at home to exploit Brighton's weaknesses. So that's

821
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 2: why I'm like, just tactically, I think that we've kind

822
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 2: of got the blueprint. Like I'd rather catch one and

823
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: a half with like a dog who's gonna sit deep

824
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 2: against Chelsea, then catch three quarters with a team who's

825
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 2: going to go toe to toe with them and leave space.

826
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 2: So that's just my opinion on like the matchup. I

827
00:41:56,600 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 2: don't love it chef for Brighton. That being said, like

828
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 2: it's Brighton, so I'm not going to say don't bet them.

829
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna listen to you. I like Brighton here

830
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: a lot.

831
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: They did.

832
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: These two teams met in in that uh the e

833
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: FL Cup. I played out what one nil it was.

834
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: It was like a pretty.

835
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 2: Blow event heavy rotation from yeah, whole.

836
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 1: Hum nothing nothing to see here kind of game. I

837
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: wonder if that's playing it to things a bit here

838
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 1: because I think that the price on brain was a

839
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:38,760
Speaker 1: bit surprising, honestly. Yeah, like Chelsea. Full credit to Chelsea

840
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:45,800
Speaker 1: against City, they had a couple of impressive draws against Arsenal,

841
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 1: that won right off the right off the jump against Liverpool,

842
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 1: but you look around at the rest of their results,

843
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 1: it's they like they did catch Tottenham. But you know,

844
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 1: as we kept trying to tell Anthony that Tottenham team

845
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 1: was over perform and they were gonna get caught eventually,

846
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 1: and they finally did. And it took a while, but

847
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: he was finally we finally were proven right against him.

848
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: The resume just looks shaky enough for me here that

849
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: and you look at the underlying data too. I think

850
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 1: there's very little separating these two teams. That it comes

851
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: down to the market, which it has all season, just

852
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: believing in Chelsea more than it should, especially in I guess,

853
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: a team that could be in anybody in Europe on

854
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: its day. So I don't know. This number just looks

855
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 1: way too high to me.

856
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 3: BJ Yeah, I think it is too and I think

857
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 3: what it is is bad spot for Brighton but a

858
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 3: good enough price to play them, is how I see it.

859
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 3: Because Brighten obviously has to travel on Thursday degrees to

860
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 3: play a Europa League match, then they traveled obviously back

861
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 3: to London play Chelsea here, So honestly, not a great spot.

862
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 3: But I think the market is kind of overvaluing the

863
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 3: injuries and suspensions that Brighton has right now. It just

864
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: came out that Ansu fat He's going to be out

865
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 3: for a while for Brighton, Lewis Dunk is going to

866
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 3: be suspended for this match. Sally marsh is still out.

867
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 3: But if you look at the front three that Brighton

868
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 3: didn't play, then like play Ferguson er Jio Pedro Matoma

869
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 3: on the left and Drink on the right, like that's

870
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,760
Speaker 3: a pretty normal front three that they would normally play.

871
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 3: And quite frankly I mentioned in the last podcast, but

872
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 3: John Paul Vanhecki has been awesome for Brighton since he's

873
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: gotten the starting lineup, throw only allowing one expectable for

874
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 3: ninety when he actually plays, So him alongside Veltman is

875
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 3: a good center back pairing. And even though since they've

876
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 3: lost Dunk, tactically, I think we'll see a lot from

877
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,280
Speaker 3: Chelsea what we've seen when they've played both City and Arsenal,

878
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 3: where they just sit in a very narrow shape and

879
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,839
Speaker 3: try to limit central progression. And quite frankly, Brighton's probably

880
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 3: gonna hold more possession in this match, and that's what

881
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 3: happened in the League Cup, which was pretty much even

882
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: unexpected goals, you know, like Anthony said, heavy rotation from

883
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 3: both teams. But for Chelsea, Rees James is out for

884
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 3: this match, which is kind of significant for them because

885
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 3: Holly were so good and build up against City and

886
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,720
Speaker 3: getting through that first line of the pressure was Reese

887
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 3: James combining with Cato and Enzo Fernandez getting the ball

888
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 3: moving forward. So now it's going to be Gusto going

889
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: up against you know, in a lot of one v

890
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,240
Speaker 3: one situations against Matoma, which is not a good situation,

891
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 3: like you need a good defensive right back and when

892
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 3: we have somebody like Matoma dribbling the ball at you.

893
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 3: So you know, Brighton plus one is minus one thirty

894
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 3: five right now, I think that's I think that's kind

895
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 3: of a crazy price. I think they're overvaluing the injuries

896
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 3: in the spot here for Brighton. So I'm gonna take

897
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 3: them plus one minus one thirty five.

898
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 1: Liverpool and Fulham. Now Fulham is another eight to one underdog,

899
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: three of them being uh well two of them, and

900
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: then Spurs at plus seven and fifty the Reds laying

901
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 1: minus four hundred at home, well traveling at eight to one,

902
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 1: the draw is plus five fifty. Nothing here for me,

903
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 1: But you two both are on the same side in

904
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: one way or the other, so I'll be ja. I

905
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 1: guess you can can complete your thought from what we

906
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 1: were talking about Brentford.

907
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the spot here for Liverpool's are really good. This.

908
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 3: I mean Fulham That match on Monday was I don't

909
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: know how they got out there with three points. That

910
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 3: was tough to watch. But we've seen this now when

911
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 3: Fulham has had to play good competition when they specifically

912
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 3: when they played Tottenham is the match that keeps coming

913
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 3: back to me where they were really good in their

914
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 3: narrow shape, like they were doing good job of limiting

915
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,479
Speaker 3: Toddenham playing through the middle. But Fulham is still trying

916
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 3: to play out of the back, like they're still trying

917
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 3: to be this type of possession team. I think Silva

918
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 3: is trying to turn them more towards that because he

919
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 3: kind of sees the writing on the wall that if

920
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,839
Speaker 3: they don't become a team that can possess the ball

921
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 3: and actually beat teams below him, then they're going down essentially.

922
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 3: So I think this is a great spot here for

923
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 3: Liverpool to just really flex their muscle. They have their

924
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 3: high press working over time, getting them turning it fullam

925
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 3: over many times, and just a Fullham defense that's overforming

926
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 3: not much in the Fulham attack still, like we've mentioned

927
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 3: every single podcast, so just completing the parlay Liverpool Renford

928
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 3: minus one twenty.

929
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I have an aversion to

930
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 2: laying spreads. I just don't like doing it because these

931
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: favorites tend to be overvalued. But like if Liverpool is

932
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 2: laying less than two here, I love it. And there's

933
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 2: a minus one and a half minus one twenty six

934
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 2: still out there as we record this. I don't get it.

935
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 2: Like I get that Allison's out, that's a downgrade, but

936
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 2: like Fulham doesn't get shots, so like it's not like

937
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: they're gonna face a time here in this match.

938
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:40,879
Speaker 3: Uh.

939
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: And so you know Liverpool laid on and three quarters

940
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 2: to Forrest. I mean, I think Forrest is solidly better

941
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 2: and a better matchup to defend on the road than

942
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 2: this Fulham defense is. And there have been a few

943
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: times where I've been hesitant to lay it against Fulham,

944
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 2: like Villa minus one, Spurs closed minus two hundred, Brighton

945
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 2: closed minus two hundred probably showed a little bit of

946
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 2: value hanging in all of those matches and didn't. And

947
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 2: so now I'm like, I got to stop missing these

948
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 2: opportunities where Fulham is going up in a weight class

949
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:14,800
Speaker 2: and getting pounded where they haven't really been competitive in

950
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 2: any of the matches. They kind of stole a second

951
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 2: half goal against Brighton to get a draw there. But

952
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: this Liverpool team should roll. They're fully healthy in the midfield,

953
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: in the attack, so yeah, you mean Liverpool will lay

954
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 2: it up to two. I think they roll in start

955
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:36,839
Speaker 2: up this title race here as we entered the crazy period.

956
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: And finally in the Premier League we will talk west

957
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: Ham and Palace. The Hammers even money at home coming

958
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: off of a win over Burnley last gasp. Palace meanwhile,

959
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: coming off of a last gasp lost to Lowton Town

960
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 1: which featured one of the goals of the season until

961
00:48:56,160 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 1: Garnacho scored twenty four hours later. Palaces plus two to eighty,

962
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 1: the draws plus two fifty and I think that this

963
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: podcast we talk about Palace in these spots all the time,

964
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:12,360
Speaker 1: like this is when you want to do it. However,

965
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: they're dealing with a rash of injuries I feel like

966
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 1: they've been dealing with them all season. They just can't

967
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 1: seem to get their best eleven. I think the question

968
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 1: here that Anthony jotted down in the notes is who

969
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: is scoring? And I think that's what you want to

970
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: look at here is let's close the show out with

971
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,959
Speaker 1: a bang. I think this is a great nil nil bet,

972
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 1: Like a great nil nil bet.

973
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:46,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Jared Bowen's doubtful. It looks like maybe plays

974
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 2: definitely not gonna play Thursday in the Europa League. We'll

975
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 2: hear from Moys on Thursday, so we'll hear what he

976
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 2: says about the weekend. I don't think he's back. But

977
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 2: like you saw how bad this West Ham team was.

978
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: They played a Burnley defense that has not been good

979
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 2: this year at any stretch, and they had nothing for

980
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 2: eighty five minutes. Well, an own goal and then Thomas Sochek,

981
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 2: you know, classic late poach to win the match. But

982
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,280
Speaker 2: like they created less than one expected goal in the match.

983
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: And as bad as their defense has been, their attack

984
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 2: has kind of overperformed their XG to sustain this this

985
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 2: winning run they get. You know, for the season, they're

986
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 2: at like twenty four goals off of eighteen XTG. Their

987
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 2: UNDERLIGHTE numbers have not been good in attack. That's with Bowen.

988
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 2: Now you take Bowen out, so I just don't really

989
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 2: know what to do for an attack here. Palace is

990
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:40,959
Speaker 2: always solid defensively, they're not going to take any chances

991
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 2: out of possession. So yeah, under for me is the

992
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 2: bet two and a half. Don't mind the don't mind

993
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 2: the under a half. The only thing scary is just

994
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 2: how bad west Ham's center backs have been. But again

995
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 2: not a ton of pressure on them given the injuries

996
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 2: for Pallace.

997
00:50:58,320 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's such I think it.

998
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 2: Also, you look at like all the goals in these

999
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: west Ham Forest game, you go back and look at

1000
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 2: the west Ham Burnley game, like so many of them

1001
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:10,120
Speaker 2: came off of flukes and set pieces. It's like there's

1002
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 2: not been open play, good attacking play in these matches

1003
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 2: for weeks, and now the best attackers are out on

1004
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 2: both sides.

1005
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Danny Ings doesn't really I guess you're got into anymore.

1006
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 1: He's cooked, there's no he's another evident killer.

1007
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, uh no, Decori, I really heard a crystal Palace

1008
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 3: here quite frankly, like you can make the argument that

1009
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 3: he's their best player. Uh, he just stops so much

1010
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 3: going through the middle of the pitch and that's I

1011
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 3: know west Ham doesn't have great attackers going through the middle,

1012
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 3: but not having him and not having Haas is really

1013
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 3: hard to get behind Palace in this type of scenario.

1014
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know who's scoring, but I'm gonna

1015
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 3: pass and watch the nil nill happen. Michael. So your

1016
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,919
Speaker 3: round out of avoiding situations so that people can win,

1017
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 3: It's my turn. I'm gonna avoid this much so you

1018
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 3: can win. ZiT?

1019
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 1: No, no, Michael, love it. Okay. That wraps up the

1020
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 1: Premier League portion of the program. Things are going to

1021
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 1: be getting quite busy around the festive fixtures. We will

1022
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 1: be back again to talk Premier League on Monday morning,

1023
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: but before we get to the rest of Europe, a

1024
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:31,640
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1025
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1027
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1028
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1035
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1036
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1037
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1050
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Speaker 1: the Bundesliga this week, Anthony spotlights on you in Germany.

1051
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,399
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what the big tilt is, uh, Lavakuzen

1052
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 2: and Dortmund, and I was like, oh, we're gonna get

1053
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 2: a great number on Leveracuzin's. Then I remembered that they're

1054
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 2: the best team in the history of the world, so.

1055
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's great margin.

1056
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 2: Thinks they are. I thought we're gonna get like minus

1057
00:53:58,840 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: one ten at home and I was just gonna Hi,

1058
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 2: now we're betting.

1059
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 3: Now I'm going up to stare at Jordan plus one old.

1060
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 2: Look, will not be betting Dortmund. I think I would

1061
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 2: need one and a half to bet Dortmund anyway. I

1062
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 2: like Bokem, I like Bokum. Pick them at home against Wolfsburg.

1063
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 3: Uh.

1064
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 2: This Bokum team, you know, after being one of the

1065
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: worst defenses in the league last year and in the

1066
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 2: early parts of this year, they found some really good

1067
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:27,320
Speaker 2: midfield ball winning and it has resulted in just mediocre

1068
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 2: defensive numbers. Now they are right around thirteenth in most

1069
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 2: of the defensive numbers. They've taken a real step forward,

1070
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: whereas this Wolfsburg attack has quietly been bad. They're in

1071
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 2: the bottom half of the league. And it's at the

1072
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 2: point now where I have a very small gap between

1073
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,399
Speaker 2: the quality of these teams and thus catching a pick

1074
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:48,200
Speaker 2: them at home. I actually have Bokum favored, so pick

1075
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,919
Speaker 2: them plus one oh five. I like Bokum at home

1076
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:54,320
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga. Not a great slate in Germany, Unjo

1077
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 2: and Berlin is gonna stare at me for a little while.

1078
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 2: But I haven't been right about Byron most of the season,

1079
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 2: so probably just passed.

1080
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 1: You didn't have the nail nail against Copenhague.

1081
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 2: No, well, I remember I almost laid it. I was

1082
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 2: so happy because I went to go lay it today

1083
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 2: and then the line moved a ton because Byron was

1084
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 2: playing everybody. I was like not having to bet Byron,

1085
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 2: thank you.

1086
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 1: And then a loss so Syria ad time, BJ What

1087
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 1: do you got for us in Italy?

1088
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 3: Uvents even money on the road to Manza. I quite frankly,

1089
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 3: I think the market is kind of undervaluing Juventus with

1090
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:35,240
Speaker 3: resurgons that they've had, because the offensive numbers have been really,

1091
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 3: really good. You know what in the past, why we

1092
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 3: kept fading Juventus and why we you know, didn't really

1093
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 3: like legy ball is because the offensive numbers weren't good

1094
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:47,319
Speaker 3: enough and the defense was drastically over reforming. Well that's

1095
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 3: not happening anymore. The defense is putting up incredible underlying numbers.

1096
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,879
Speaker 3: They just drew with Inter one one in a very

1097
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,399
Speaker 3: boring match where nothing really happened. Both teams created under

1098
00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:01,439
Speaker 3: one expected goal. But this is a match where they're

1099
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,240
Speaker 3: actually gonna conceive quite a bit of possession to Manza because,

1100
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 3: for those who don't know, Manza is one of the

1101
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:10,319
Speaker 3: most like slow progression build up teams in Syria. They're

1102
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 3: acting close to fifty five percent possession on the season,

1103
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 3: So Uventus is going to be very happy to sit

1104
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 3: back in their defensive block and just counter this Mons team,

1105
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 3: which is quite freely. If you look at their ball

1106
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 3: progression numbers and their build up rankings, it's actually pretty

1107
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 3: good in Syria. They just really really struggle when they

1108
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 3: get to the final third because they're thirteenth and non

1109
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 3: penalty xgiefs. So I like Juventus in the spot. I

1110
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 3: think they're back, and I think that they are just

1111
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 3: being very undervalued by the market. I have them at

1112
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 3: minus one thirty four in this match, so Juventus even money.

1113
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:48,720
Speaker 2: Anthony, Yeah, I'm gonna go with frozen nune A plus

1114
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 2: one point twenty five minus one ten against Milan. I

1115
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 2: know we banned that team so long ago. They've been

1116
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 2: terrible at holding leads, so you know, if they're up late,

1117
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 2: we could we could get up like three to this

1118
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:06,760
Speaker 2: Milan team. But a look, BJ and I did maybe

1119
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:08,440
Speaker 2: one of the times I was right and Bja was

1120
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 2: wrong with this, this fraud Milan remains a fraud. And

1121
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 2: their attack has eighteen expected goals this year, and that

1122
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 2: includes a lot of penalties. Their attack, like by most

1123
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 2: of the metrics, is closer to like eighth right now,

1124
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 2: and that's now no Leo, who is the entire attack

1125
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 2: okafor is out, so they're shorthanded and their defense has

1126
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 2: fallen off a cliff as they've had to commit more

1127
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:37,720
Speaker 2: numbers forward this year. They have regressed pretty hard defensively.

1128
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 2: So it's a very mediocre Milan team right now, who

1129
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 2: if you took out penalties entirely, would barely be above

1130
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,280
Speaker 2: average in Syria. So catching a goal in a quarter

1131
00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 2: with frozenone who was pretty fortunate to get the promotion,

1132
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 2: but they haven't. They've improved their underline numbers this year

1133
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 2: and they're not a bad attacking team. They're right around

1134
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: league average and attack like I think They're going to

1135
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 2: be very competitive in this match. Milan's overvalued so frozen

1136
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 2: one plus one point two five against.

1137
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 3: Me now.

1138
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:15,040
Speaker 1: So brilliant. Like a master class in pronunciation there from

1139
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: Anthony teaching me and BJ a lesson ante la Liga.

1140
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 1: Maybe some more beautiful pronunciations from you, Anthony.

1141
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 2: Well, Granada fired their manager because their defense was historically bad.

1142
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 2: And I was messaging with Avery and BJ today about

1143
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 2: this Madrid team and what to make of them and

1144
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 2: how they keep doing this, and they deserve the win.

1145
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:42,200
Speaker 2: I think on the balance of the chances today created more.

1146
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 2: Napoli looked dead on their feet the last fifteen minutes,

1147
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 2: but the defense is so bad, and Napoli team totals

1148
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 2: were always the way and we got some of those home.

1149
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 2: And I've been playing these team totals against Madrid a bunch,

1150
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 2: and I think I'm going to keep doing it going

1151
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 2: forward until the market corrects for just how bad this

1152
00:58:59,720 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 2: defense is. Right now, they're outside the top four in

1153
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 2: expected goes loud in Spain and they are not. They

1154
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:09,920
Speaker 2: don't stop the ball, so they will let you do

1155
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 2: your stuff. And look Granada, like I said, like they

1156
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: got manager got fired because they haven't won. They won

1157
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,479
Speaker 2: win in fourteen matches. Right, They're really really terrible because

1158
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 2: their defense is horrendous, but they can score. I mean

1159
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 2: they put up one XG and score twice on Barsa,

1160
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 2: they put up three on Socia dodd a full XG

1161
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 2: on Atlete, like they've gone toe to toe and just

1162
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 2: I mean they conceded and lost most of those matches,

1163
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 2: but like they could score here. So even money to

1164
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 2: score against Madrid, thank you very much. I'll take that.

1165
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 3: What about you, BJ, Let's pay Drona again because they're

1166
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 3: overvalued again against a very very good Valencia team that

1167
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 3: has been unperforming. Valencia is a very very good defense,

1168
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 3: second in non penalty XG first and shots a lot

1169
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 3: for ninety And you know, I think what Droonah showed

1170
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 3: against at Buddy Coo Bill Bao on on Monday was

1171
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:07,160
Speaker 3: that this run has been a tad fraudulent because I

1172
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 3: like Billboo constantly kept exposing them in transition where teams

1173
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:15,000
Speaker 3: have just not been able to do that. Now, Valencia's

1174
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 3: offensive numbers haven't been great in La Liga this season,

1175
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 3: but in a scenario like this where Girona is laying

1176
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:26,680
Speaker 3: minus one fifty i'm'tly getting close to plus one on

1177
01:00:26,720 --> 01:00:28,800
Speaker 3: a top five defense, and La Liga like this is

1178
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 3: a very very good spot here for Valencia to get

1179
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 3: some positive regression going back towards them. So I have

1180
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 3: a feeling we're gona be faiting Jerona quite a bit

1181
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 3: as their schedule gets harder because they put up these

1182
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 3: great numbers against Leusser competition. So I'm just going to

1183
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:45,760
Speaker 3: be fitting Jerome again.

1184
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 1: And nothing for us in league. So time to go

1185
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 1: to our three leg underdog parlay. Last week, a lot

1186
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 1: of times you'll hears come on the show and say close.

1187
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 2: Close.

1188
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 1: Last week was not close.

1189
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:05,400
Speaker 2: I don't even remember who we had. Who do we

1190
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: have last week? Well, Bloo was up to, Nol.

1191
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 3: Was up to uh, Brentford got pumped by our song,

1192
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 3: Branford was live. No, they weren't. And then we had

1193
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 3: Wolves who should have won.

1194
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 2: Who the Wolves play again? Oh yeah, okay, so we

1195
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 2: weren't close to winning, but like I didn't think any

1196
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 2: of those were particularly Like, wow, that team just didn't

1197
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:29,120
Speaker 2: show up. They got pummeled today.

1198
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:30,959
Speaker 1: I mean, just at over three, we can, we can?

1199
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:34,919
Speaker 1: We can once again, it's okay to say you're wrong

1200
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:38,520
Speaker 1: and that one was definition.

1201
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 2: Glod box plus one and a half with us with

1202
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 2: me on Saturday like that. That was an all time

1203
01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 2: hilarious loss. Like they bring the goalie up and then

1204
01:01:46,800 --> 01:01:49,080
Speaker 2: it's like a breakaway in slow motion. Horrendous.

1205
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:52,960
Speaker 1: I lost an NHL but last night where team won

1206
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 1: won in the shootout, turned off the game and it

1207
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:58,120
Speaker 1: found out twenty minutes later that they lost in the shootout.

1208
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 1: So it's been a fun for me.

1209
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:04,240
Speaker 3: The darts are back, so it's okay, darts are.

1210
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 1: Coming and we're gonna hit this one, this three leg,

1211
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 1: this three lagger BJ what do you got, Well.

1212
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 3: Let's try to hit the bullseye, Michael, I'll go Brighton

1213
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:17,800
Speaker 3: plus three twenty at Chelsea. Just a really inflated price

1214
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 3: here on the Blues, who quite frankly, haven't been that

1215
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 3: great all season long, especially against good competition. Brighton it's

1216
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 3: a bad spot for them coming off a Europa League

1217
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:30,400
Speaker 3: match on Thursday. They had d f some injuries, but

1218
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 3: the market is kind of overvaluing those because they will

1219
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 3: have their usual front three. They have a good center

1220
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:40,240
Speaker 3: backs pairing and quite frankly, the last match, the way

1221
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 3: they played Chelsea in the League Cup was pretty even so,

1222
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,360
Speaker 3: getting Brighton at plus three twenty, I think it is

1223
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:48,840
Speaker 3: a good price here against a Chelsea team that still

1224
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 3: hasn't shown their potential yet.

1225
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, crank up the warrens zvon one more time. Wolverhampton

1226
01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 1: Wolves WOA plus eight hundred on the road against Arsenal,

1227
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 1: an Arsenal team that we know has one of the

1228
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 1: best defenses in all of soccer and in all of

1229
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 1: college football too. You put this team on the field

1230
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten championship game, the total is going

1231
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 1: to be eighteen and a half. But we just don't

1232
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 1: trust him to score. And if Wolves can grind this

1233
01:03:18,640 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 1: one out, and hell, they've been good at it so

1234
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,280
Speaker 1: far this season. They've gotten results against They've got a

1235
01:03:24,320 --> 01:03:27,200
Speaker 1: win against City, draws against Villa, a draw against Newcastle,

1236
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 1: winn against Spurs, win against Mighty Everdence. This Wolves team

1237
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 1: is a big game hunter and I don't I wouldn't

1238
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:37,439
Speaker 1: be surprised if it continues here. And Bja even said

1239
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 1: it a little nervous for this one. He is so

1240
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 1: Wolves eight to one. Anthony, who's your pooch?

1241
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 2: We just talked about Gerona. I'm gonna go with Valencia

1242
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 2: plus three to seventy against them. This has been the

1243
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 2: fewest shots allowed in La Liga this year and dolf

1244
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 2: Beck may miss again here for Girona. He's the leading

1245
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 2: goal scorer questionable here, so keep that on the radar.

1246
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 2: But I think Valencia's defense turns this game into an

1247
01:04:02,320 --> 01:04:05,240
Speaker 2: even one and should be a low event match in Laiga.

1248
01:04:05,400 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 2: And like you said, BJ like change this defense for

1249
01:04:07,640 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 2: Girona poor could have conceded two or three in the

1250
01:04:09,720 --> 01:04:11,320
Speaker 2: first half to bill Bow Monday.

1251
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:16,160
Speaker 1: One seventy seven to one this one. So cranking in

1252
01:04:16,280 --> 01:04:18,600
Speaker 1: up a couple of notches from where we've been. You know,

1253
01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 1: we've been living a lot in that like fifty to

1254
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 1: eighty five to one, fifty to ninety to one, range

1255
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:26,439
Speaker 1: just one. We're going big for you, all right, bets

1256
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:30,080
Speaker 1: bets in the Premier League, Anthony, what do you got Wolves.

1257
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 2: Team total over a half? I think we've reached the

1258
01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 2: peak of the market on this Arsenal defense, who have

1259
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:37,440
Speaker 2: been pitching shutout after shutout, bareling, allowing any shots at all,

1260
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 2: domination of you know, Sevilla and Long and Burnley and

1261
01:04:42,680 --> 01:04:45,200
Speaker 2: even you know, really impressive against Newcastle. But I think

1262
01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 2: given the equality Wolves have shown in the attack with

1263
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:50,919
Speaker 2: it without inn Ato, which was really a surprise. They're

1264
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 2: going to be live to score in this one and

1265
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 2: transition on the break and I think they will get one.

1266
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 2: So Wolves team total over half minus one ten.

1267
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:02,400
Speaker 1: Brighton plus three twenty against Chelsea on the road. BJ

1268
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 1: just laid it out why we like them as an underdog.

1269
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:05,919
Speaker 1: You can just add to it. This is a team

1270
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:07,760
Speaker 1: that at this kind of numbers against no matter who

1271
01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 1: the opponent is not too worried about the tactical matchup

1272
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:13,680
Speaker 1: either when it comes to Brighton like it's I'll just

1273
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 1: take them here, close my eyes, pray to the gods

1274
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:23,280
Speaker 1: of Roberto, deserve Bee and ride with the Seagulls, all right, BJ.

1275
01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 3: Newcastle even money against Manchester United. Nobody has overperformed more

1276
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:32,280
Speaker 3: than Manchester United in there as recently. Since October seventh,

1277
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:35,960
Speaker 3: United has picked up fifteen points in six matches. That's

1278
01:05:35,960 --> 01:05:37,880
Speaker 3: the most of them premirely, but they only have seven

1279
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:41,040
Speaker 3: point eight expected points during that timeframe and quite frankly,

1280
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 3: this is a terrible tactical matchup for them because Brighton

1281
01:05:44,160 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 3: excuse me mentioned United is not good enough to build

1282
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 3: up through Newcastle's pressure. They show that in the League

1283
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 3: Cup when Newcastle played their B team and beat them

1284
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,840
Speaker 3: through nothing, So that means United is probably gonna have

1285
01:05:55,840 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 3: to send them all along and play a transitional match

1286
01:05:57,800 --> 01:06:00,800
Speaker 3: with one of the best transition teams in the entire world.

1287
01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,920
Speaker 3: So it's a terrible match up here for United. Newcastle

1288
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 3: has been really, really good at home for a very

1289
01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 3: very long time plus one point four to eight expect

1290
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:11,680
Speaker 3: a golden frenchial per ninety minutes at Saint James Park.

1291
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 3: Since the start the last season, all United has has

1292
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:16,000
Speaker 3: struggled on the road and this will be a third

1293
01:06:16,000 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 3: straight road matches while coming off a Champions League match,

1294
01:06:18,280 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 3: traveling to Turkey and coming back up north to Newcastle.

1295
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 3: So I like the price here on Newcastle eight and money.

1296
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:28,160
Speaker 1: It's a beautiful slate coming up for us this weekend.

1297
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: Like I said, midweek fixtures are back in the Premier League,

1298
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:34,160
Speaker 1: so we'll be back to break them all down for

1299
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 1: you on Monday morning, but until then, best of luck

1300
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 1: with all your bets. Hopefully we're all one hundred and

1301
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:43,720
Speaker 1: seventy seven to one richer by the time we talked next.

1302
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 1: For bj Cunningham and Anthony de Bunda, Michael Leebov, thank

1303
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: you for listening, and thank you to our producer now

1304
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:52,280
Speaker 1: for all the hard work behind the scenes. We'll see

1305
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:53,320
Speaker 1: you all again Monday morning.

1306
01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:05,840
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1307
01:07:05,880 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1308
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,800
Speaker 2: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler