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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Oh I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. This weekend, first Saturday in May, a tradition

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Speaker 1: that has gone on for one hundred and fifty years,

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Speaker 1: this is the one hundred and fiftieth running of the

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Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, the Greatest two minutes in Sports on NBC.

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Speaker 1: I think it'll happen at six fifty seven pm after

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Speaker 1: eight hours of pregaming. To celebrate this gambling right of spring,

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Speaker 1: we are going to be joined by Action Network horse

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Speaker 1: racing and baseball expert Sean Zarillo to discuss all his

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Speaker 1: wagers in the Run for the Roses, his favorite contenders, longshot,

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Speaker 1: how he'll be building his exotics. This guy is honestly,

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Speaker 1: I know for a fact.

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Speaker 2: This guy is.

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Speaker 1: My co host, my companion, mikem padre my BFF professional better,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter's favorite off season guest, and osry Man.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I love Sean.

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Speaker 4: All he does is win us money. So as much

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Speaker 4: as I'm gonna miss just Bullshit and Johnny Manzel, it's

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Speaker 4: a nice replacement having Sean in here today.

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Speaker 1: Sean is replacing Johnny Manziel in our guest spot this week.

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Speaker 1: He's also the host of Action Networks Baseball betting podcast

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Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch. For anybody looking at bet on Baseball, be

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Speaker 1: sure to check that out as well. Simon's right, Zarillo

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Speaker 1: makes us money every year on baseball. It will be

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Speaker 1: the last week of the season, and whoever Sean said

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Speaker 1: is going to be leading the league in strike ads

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Speaker 1: or leading the league in home runs who you had

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Speaker 1: not considered, will in fact be in that position.

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Speaker 2: So listen up, folks.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 1: never ordinary. BET three six five must be twenty one

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Speaker 1: or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa. Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older

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Speaker 1: in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Also,

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Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For

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Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, give us a like and subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 2: All right, mister Zurilla, great to see your brother. I'm

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Speaker 2: so glad you're here.

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Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby. Exciting two minutes in sports for people who

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Speaker 1: only think about the Derby over the next forty eight hours,

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Speaker 1: and we'll forget everything they know about the Derby for

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Speaker 1: the next three hundred and sixty two days. Remind people

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Speaker 1: what makes betting the Derby unique. There are a variety

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Speaker 1: of factors that make this different than every other horse race.

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Speaker 5: Well, you called it the fastest too, or the most

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Speaker 5: exciting two minute in sports. Our co host on the

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Speaker 5: Action Network podcast yesterday, Brettan Gleshen, accidentally called it the

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Speaker 5: fastest two minutes in sports. But I don't think that's

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Speaker 5: wrong because in the first fifteen seconds, in the first

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Speaker 5: ten seconds at the break, five horses three horses whoever

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Speaker 5: real chance to win this race are probably going to

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Speaker 5: be ellimited just by breaking bat off the break and

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Speaker 5: being in a twenty horse field, one's not going to

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Speaker 5: break at all. The gat'll open wal to stand there,

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Speaker 5: one is going to get bumped, one will probably stumble,

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Speaker 5: and a few others will crash into each other. And

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Speaker 5: a horse like Fierceness, who will talk about a lot

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Speaker 5: who needs the lead. If he breaks well, he'll have

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Speaker 5: a very strong chance of winning the race. If he

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Speaker 5: doesn't break well, his race is probably over inside of

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Speaker 5: ten seconds. There's other horses who want to be sitting

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Speaker 5: a little bit further back, like Sierra Leone and the

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Speaker 5: other closers who don't need his break as well and

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Speaker 5: can just kind of, you know, work out their trip,

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Speaker 5: get out of the gate and then find their spot.

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Speaker 5: So the break is extremely important, but even more important

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Speaker 5: in the twenty horse field. Now with the twenty horse field.

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Speaker 5: A few years ago in twenty twenty, they changed the

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Speaker 5: gate the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Specifically,

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Speaker 5: there used to be a fifteen horse starting gate and

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Speaker 5: then a little gap and then a five horse auxiliary gate,

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Speaker 5: and what that did because the auxiliary gate was angled

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Speaker 5: in it forced those five horses to all crush over,

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Speaker 5: and the sixteen and the fifteen and the seventeen would

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Speaker 5: all end up angled that one another and crashing into

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Speaker 5: each other. So they changed it a few years ago

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty. It's a bit more fair of his

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Speaker 5: starting gate. Now it goes flat across the entire course.

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Speaker 5: And even though the seventeen horses over forty four in

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Speaker 5: the derby, other horses from the outside of one have

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Speaker 5: had more success in recent years since they changed the gate,

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Speaker 5: so I think the gate is playing a little bit

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Speaker 5: more fair. But in a twenty horse field, there's just

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Speaker 5: absolute chaos at the start. Getting through traffic for horses

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Speaker 5: at the end could be extremely difficult. It's really difficult

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Speaker 5: for a lot of these horses to work out trips.

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Speaker 5: And then also for the derby, you know, because it

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Speaker 5: is such a big race. A lot of owners are

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Speaker 5: entering just to say that they're in the derby. But

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Speaker 5: with a fifty to one shot that should probably be

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Speaker 5: really ninety nine to one if you're handicapping it correctly,

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Speaker 5: they don't actually have a realistic chance of winning, so

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Speaker 5: what they'll do is just send their horse from the

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Speaker 5: start of the race, tell them to run as fast

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Speaker 5: as possible, and then just pray they can carry it

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Speaker 5: all the way around the tracks. So the Derby pace

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Speaker 5: in the past couple of years has been a little

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Speaker 5: bit suicidal, just relative to other fractions in other Derbies

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Speaker 5: where we've seen it run more like a normal race.

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Speaker 5: I think every year in the Derby now going forward,

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Speaker 5: you're just going to get a couple owners who tell

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Speaker 5: their horses to send, and it's not so much the

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Speaker 5: pace that they're carving out as much as where that

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Speaker 5: next flight of horses is sitting behind them. That's going

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Speaker 5: to determine where the race plays out, because if they

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Speaker 5: do send and go as hard as they can, they're

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Speaker 5: eventually going to fall off. But how much can they

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Speaker 5: lure out the other contenders to follow them and maybe

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Speaker 5: get out of their preferred running style and change the

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Speaker 5: dynamics of the race. So yeah, the chaotic pace and

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Speaker 5: also the chaotic traffic that this race has caused with

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Speaker 5: twenty horses, just makes it such an interesting betting race

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Speaker 5: to handicap, but also makes it play out in a

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Speaker 5: fascinating way. But yeah, don't be surprised that the horse

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Speaker 5: that you pick is basically done with intent in side

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Speaker 5: of ten seconds on Saturday. I've been in that position

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Speaker 5: before and just kind of walk around the house with

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Speaker 5: my head in my hand and build the race is over.

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Speaker 1: Well, Simon, can you imagine that? Like we've obviously bet

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Speaker 1: a lot of football more than anything. Can you imagine

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Speaker 1: first ten seconds your bet is done? I mean the

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Speaker 1: circumstances for that to happen in the NFL, you basically

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Speaker 1: have to lose your quarterback like the kick return. You know,

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Speaker 1: that's got to be the most frustrating.

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Speaker 4: Oh it isn't chat, We survived it. Aaron Rodgers went

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Speaker 4: down to something we survived with Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 3: Brother, dude, I agree.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, I totally forgot about that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but we have survived the more circumstances you can

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Speaker 1: have and we came out on the other side.

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Speaker 4: You and Sean though, gave me a great debate for Saturday.

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Speaker 4: What is the best two minutes in sports? Is it

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Speaker 4: the two minute Drill or is it the Kentucky Derby?

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Speaker 4: So I do appreciate that chat. It's gonna be a

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Speaker 4: lot of fun. Bar banter on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: For me with that question, I.

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Speaker 1: Love that, So Sean, that's incredibly frustrating to think about.

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Speaker 2: All right, you're ten.

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Speaker 1: Seconds in and as you're thinking about this, twenty horses

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Speaker 1: in the race, positioning has a huge factor in it.

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Speaker 1: How do you think about handicapping? Are you tossing horses

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Speaker 1: from the very beginning? What's your concept here?

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Speaker 5: Yes, in order to play Derby Exotics, I basically want

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Speaker 5: to eliminate half of the field that a minimum nine

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Speaker 5: to eleven horses, I would say, and then I only

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Speaker 5: want to be using it most nine or ten horses

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Speaker 5: on my exotic ticket. So I'll run down the field

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Speaker 5: here and talk about which horses I'm using, and then

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Speaker 5: talk about which horses I think drew well based on

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Speaker 5: the draw that they had earlier this year than usual,

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Speaker 5: which is great because it's just given us more time

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Speaker 5: to handicap, but as Mike Conti pointed out yesterday, potentially

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Speaker 5: more time to overthink things and maybe take out horses

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Speaker 5: that you normally would have had in. But the number

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Speaker 5: one door knock to me is going to be a rabbit.

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Speaker 5: I'll run himself out of the race eventually. The number

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Speaker 5: five catalytic does not fit on figures. The number nine

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Speaker 5: and Sino scratch outs will not be in the race.

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Speaker 5: The number ten too, Password is coming over from Japan.

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Speaker 5: Didn't love his works around Churchill downs. The number twelve

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Speaker 5: track Fantom also going to read a rabbit, but adding blinkers,

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Speaker 5: so he's actually going to be way out in front

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Speaker 5: of the field properly in the likely paysetter. I would

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Speaker 5: imagine the number thirteen West Saratoga doesn't fit for me either.

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Speaker 5: The number fourteen, endlessly is a bit of a wildcard

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Speaker 5: here because he raced on synthetic tracks. Sometimes horses coming

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Speaker 5: over from synthetic have more success on dirt. Usually they

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Speaker 5: have more success on turf. So I'm tossing the number

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Speaker 5: fourteen endlessly, but a bit tepid. I could absolutely see

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Speaker 5: that horse running in the money. The number sixteen Grandmo,

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Speaker 5: the first, the number twenty Society Man, those are my

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Speaker 5: final tosses of regardless how you're playing the race.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 5: In terms of how I'm playing the race, I'm mostly

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Speaker 5: against the number two Sierra Leone because even though I

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Speaker 5: said I expect a fast pace, Sierra Leone is also

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Speaker 5: going to be stuck in the back of this twenty

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Speaker 5: horse field, and there's other closers that are going to

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Speaker 5: have better position than him in order to get first

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Speaker 5: jump on the run if there is a fast pace.

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Speaker 5: So the number seven on he Marie, the number three,

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Speaker 5: Mystic Dan, they're horses who may be a flight in

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Speaker 5: front of Sierra Leone, who I think could get the

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Speaker 5: best of him. So we'll talk about those horses a

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Speaker 5: bit later when it comes to long shots, but just

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Speaker 5: in terms of the draw and who drew perfectly for

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Speaker 5: their racing style, Fierceness absolutely wanted to be on the outside.

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Speaker 5: But not only that. All of the other horses who

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Speaker 5: are likely to be the speed horses, as I mentioned, Phantom,

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Speaker 5: the twelve, the eight, just to touch the one door knock,

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Speaker 5: they're all to his inside. So while all those horses

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Speaker 5: are gunning for the league, gunning to get around the

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Speaker 5: first turn and run the shortest distance around the racetrack,

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Speaker 5: Fierceness is just going to come out of his gate,

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Speaker 5: run the speed that he's accustomed to running, get about

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Speaker 5: two wide or three wide at that first turn, and

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Speaker 5: then be looking the top contender in the eye as

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Speaker 5: they go along the backstretch, coasting along and then hopefully

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Speaker 5: press on the gas as they run the final turn.

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Speaker 5: So if Fierceness was on the inside and the speed

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Speaker 5: were to his outside, he would be forced to go.

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Speaker 5: Because he's on the outside and all of it's to

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Speaker 5: his inside, he can kind of sit a more comfortable trip,

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Speaker 5: make sure he gets the position he needs to and

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Speaker 5: then coast around the track. So it alleviates a lot

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Speaker 5: of the concerns that have regarding Fierceness, just in terms

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Speaker 5: of the traffic trouble he may face in this race.

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Speaker 5: But at the same time, getting out of the gate

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Speaker 5: is as important as ever, and it will be important

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Speaker 5: for all of these horses, and he has had trouble

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Speaker 5: getting out of the gate in the past, So it

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Speaker 5: is a concern regarding Fierceness as favoritism. But in terms

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Speaker 5: of the gate draw, you could ask for anything better

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Speaker 5: than him to be on the outside. I think I

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Speaker 5: mentioned it before over forty four the seventeen saddlecloth number,

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Speaker 5: but he's not going to be running out of the

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Speaker 5: seventeen post. We already had one scratch, so he shifts

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Speaker 5: over to the sixteen. I've actually heard some rumors that

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Speaker 5: Dorkno might scratch as well, so that would move him

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Speaker 5: another post over into the fifteen and allow the twenty

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Speaker 5: two Mugatu to draw into the field. I should mention

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Speaker 5: when I was talking about the horses and going to

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Speaker 5: toss the number twenty one, Epic Ride drew into the

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Speaker 5: field because of the number nine scratch, I'm tossing the

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Speaker 5: number twenty one as well.

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Speaker 4: Sean, do you have any you know, terms of our

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Speaker 4: idea of what we should expect you about the weather

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Speaker 4: and track conditions coming up this weekend where you know

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Speaker 4: that's a big deal in racing and we've had some

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Speaker 4: shockers win because of those things. So as we get culcher,

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Speaker 4: do you have any idea about that?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So it seems like it might rain on Oaks

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Speaker 5: Day on Friday, which would obviously not only impact those races,

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Speaker 5: but it may move some of the turfters, some of

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Speaker 5: the turf races back to the dirt, which changes which

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Speaker 5: horses you may end up selecting in that race, because

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Speaker 5: there's a huge difference between form on turf versus dirt,

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Speaker 5: and sometimes when there's expected to be rain in the forecast,

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Speaker 5: there's trainers who will enter horses hoping that it will rain,

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Speaker 5: and if it doesn't they'll scratch them out if it does.

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Speaker 5: They wanted the race to be on the dirt and

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Speaker 5: that's why they entered them in there. So there's actually

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Speaker 5: a strategic thing with owners and selecting the races on

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Speaker 5: potential days where there may be rain. But by Saturday,

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Speaker 5: to my knowledge, it should clear out. If it doesn't,

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Speaker 5: if the track is still a little bit wet, if

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Speaker 5: it's still a little bit of soft, the number three

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Speaker 5: Misstic Dan would certainly move up for me. So speed

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Speaker 5: figures are very important how I handicap races. Fierceness has

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Speaker 5: the top two speed figures in this field. He ran

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Speaker 5: a one to ten and a one oh five Buyer

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Speaker 5: speed figures. Usually coming into the derby there's at least

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Speaker 5: four or five horses that have run like low one

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Speaker 5: hundreds one one to one four one o five. The

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Speaker 5: only other horse besides Fierceness who's surpassed one hundred in

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Speaker 5: this field is missic Dan. He ran a one oh

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Speaker 5: one over a muddy track, so definitely is proven that

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Speaker 5: not only is he going to run better on a

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Speaker 5: muddy track, but he also ran his best race on

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Speaker 5: a muddy track, and he's been training really well leading

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Speaker 5: up to this race too, So I'd really like the

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Speaker 5: number three Mystic Dan if it rained. Fierceness, you know,

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Speaker 5: has a loss over a muddy track, and he's run

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Speaker 5: two poor races in his career. One of them you

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Speaker 5: can make more excuses for, just because it was his

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Speaker 5: first start off of a layoff. He didn't have the

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Speaker 5: fully stretched out distance that you would expect, and then

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Speaker 5: in his next race ran a career best race, but

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Speaker 5: he also lost in the mud and he didn't have

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Speaker 5: a great trip there, but it was just a sloppy

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Speaker 5: track and he ran kind of a clunker. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I would absolutely downgrade Fierceness if it is going to rain.

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Speaker 5: I think his maiden might have come on a bit

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Speaker 5: of a softer track, but just didn't like the way

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Speaker 5: that he ran in that Champagne, and I think it

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Speaker 5: would certainly downgrade him relative to his favoritism status if

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Speaker 5: it rains on Friday into Saturday, or particularly if it's

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Speaker 5: raining on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: The Derby has some of my favorite gambling phrases. You know,

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Speaker 1: you think about the wall of sound, which I've heard

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Speaker 1: experts who handicapped the Derby. I've heard jockeys, trainers sort

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Speaker 1: of when you're coming around the turn and the horses

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Speaker 1: are facing that grandstand for the first time with one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand people cheering, and you are going into this

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Speaker 1: wall of sound, a tunnel of sound. That's number one.

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Speaker 1: Number two Whisper Wednesday. Whisper Wednesday is one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite phrases in all of gambling. So for people who

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Speaker 1: will be watching the Derby for the first time and

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Speaker 1: listening to this podcast or betting it for the first time,

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Speaker 1: explain what Whisper Wednesday is and its impact, and explain

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Speaker 1: what the wall of sound is and its impact.

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Speaker 5: So I feel like Whisper Wednesday has almost been extended

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Speaker 5: out over the course of the entire two weeks of

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Speaker 5: Churchill Downs. But basically by the time Wednesday rolls around,

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Speaker 5: you know who the buzz horses are around Churchill Downs.

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Speaker 5: You've had the clockers watching their workouts all week leading

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Speaker 5: up to the race, and people like Mike Walsh for

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Speaker 5: the daily racing for him do a phenomenal job.

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Speaker 3: I've learned so much watching his videos on YouTube.

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Speaker 5: He always does clocker reports every single day for the

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Speaker 5: two weeks leading up to the race, and Mike has

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Speaker 5: put me on some bigger horse big prices on horses,

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Speaker 5: Mandaloon was his favorite horse. The year he ended up

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Speaker 5: running finished second is my worst beat ever considering he's

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Speaker 5: now the official winner of the race since Medina Spirit

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Speaker 5: has been disqualified, and had he won the race that day,

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Speaker 5: I would have won about eighteen thousand dollars. So not

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Speaker 5: bitter about it at all. But what I'm saying is

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Speaker 5: we have speed scores right Normally I'm handicapping races based

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Speaker 5: upon speed scores, but for the Derby, there's so many

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Speaker 5: clockers at the track, and there's so much information regarding

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Speaker 5: which horses look good right now, and the horse that

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Speaker 5: looks the best right now is Fierceness, who's the morning

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Speaker 5: line favorite, And that is not always the case. Oftentimes

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Speaker 5: I'm trying to pick against the favorites because they don't

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Speaker 5: necessarily look the best training that week, and there's a

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Speaker 5: horse at longer odds who looks great training that week.

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Speaker 5: But Fierceness has gotten all of the buzz from workouts

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Speaker 5: this week and has become the buzz horse on top

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Speaker 5: of the fact that he's already the favorite, and I

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Speaker 5: think that's led to people saying if he runs his

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Speaker 5: best race, he wins because they see that he's not

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Speaker 5: only in top form from his last race, but probably

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Speaker 5: potentially progressing and improving off of that race, which doesn't

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Speaker 5: seem possible considering he already has such a big speed

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Speaker 5: score advantage over the entire field. Now the horse at

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Speaker 5: a price well, I think is the other buzz horse

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Speaker 5: who have seen leave a lot of people's mouths this

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Speaker 5: week is the number seven Honor Marie ben Curtis, the

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Speaker 5: jockey not as well known for the Derby, but really

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Speaker 5: good local rider where he's from. And this horse is

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Speaker 5: going to come with a late run I said, it'll

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Speaker 5: be in front of Sierra Leone and is arguably training

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Speaker 5: better this week sier Leone actually getting out worked by

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Speaker 5: a stablemate, the number fifteen domestic product in their works

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Speaker 5: around Churchill Downs this week. So whisper Wednesday? I think

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Speaker 5: originated as like by the time Wednesday comes around, everybody knows,

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Speaker 5: you know who the buzz horses are. But these are

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Speaker 5: horses that have been talked about now for about ten days.

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Speaker 5: They had their bigger workouts over the weekend last weekend,

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Speaker 5: the week before the race, seven days out from the race.

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Speaker 5: You know most of these horses as are getting their

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Speaker 5: final big works in over the weekend before. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: at this point kind of wrapping things up. You know,

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Speaker 5: the post positions are drawn, we know who's worked well.

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Speaker 5: They're just running their gallopouts and you know, light workouts

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Speaker 5: around the track to stay informed. But yeah, we pretty

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Speaker 5: much have the buzz horses solidified at this point. And

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Speaker 5: I'd say it's the number seventeen fierceness and the number

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Speaker 5: seven on a marine. And I've also heard good things

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Speaker 5: about the fore catching Freedom, the nineteen Resilience and the

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Speaker 5: three mystic. Dan fired a bull out work bullet work

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Speaker 5: last week as well, which means he was the fastest

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Speaker 5: of all of the horses to work that day. So

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Speaker 5: I said he did run well over a muddy track

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Speaker 5: that is his career best race. But it seems like

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Speaker 5: he's working pretty well at Churchill leading up to this

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Speaker 5: race too.

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Speaker 2: I hate to say this, Sean.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned missing out on an eighteen thousand dollars payday.

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Speaker 1: Can you relive that experience for our listeners go into

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Speaker 1: a little more detail about what happened there.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So I usually leave myself to three horses in

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Speaker 5: the Derby across bolt E race tickets, and if you're

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Speaker 5: not familiar with multi race tickets, it's my favorite way

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Speaker 5: to bet on horse racing. Essentially, it's a parlay across

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Speaker 5: multiple races, but you can select as many or as

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Speaker 5: few horses you like, and each had a race. So

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Speaker 5: the best way to play them typically is pick five's,

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Speaker 5: which you're betting on the outcomes of five consecutive races.

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Speaker 5: And you could either single, which means you're picking one

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Speaker 5: horse in that race, or you could pick an all,

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Speaker 5: which means you're getting every horse in that race, or

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Speaker 5: you could choose as many or as a few horses.

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Speaker 3: As you like.

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Speaker 5: As I said, so typically in those sequences, you want

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Speaker 5: to have at least one single, if not two singles,

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Speaker 5: where it's one race where you just only have one

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Speaker 5: horse to win, because it just cheapens the price of

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Speaker 5: all of your tickets. I usually leave myself two or

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Speaker 5: three horses for the Derby. I believe that year I

396
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Speaker 5: left myself with three two of the shorter price favorites,

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Speaker 5: and then Mandaloon, who in future as I had at

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Speaker 5: twenty five to one or twenty seven to one, I

399
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 5: believe at post time he was closer to fifteen to

400
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Speaker 5: one and was in perfect position all the way around

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Speaker 5: the trip. And I've watched thousands of horse races in

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Speaker 5: my lifetime, and I've watched thousands of baseball games in

403
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Speaker 5: my lifetime. You know, there's a there's a great chapter

404
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Speaker 5: story in the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell where he

405
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Speaker 5: talks about sitting with somebody who's a tennis expert, and

406
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 5: he's calling double faults before they happen, just by the

407
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Speaker 5: body language of the way the ball is being thrown up. Right,

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Speaker 5: if you watch enough sports, if you watch enough of

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Speaker 5: a particular sport, I feel like you have this unconscious

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Speaker 5: ability to identify when things are about to happen. And

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Speaker 5: I've watched enough horse races to know when a horse

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Speaker 5: looked like Mandaloon looked in the stretch running down on

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Speaker 5: his main contender, he's always going to pass them, or

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Speaker 5: at least pas him ninety nine percent of the time.

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Speaker 5: And he didn't, And I went, what the hell was that?

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Speaker 5: And then a couple days later it comes out the

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Speaker 5: median's spirit tested positive for steroids, and You're like, Oh,

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Speaker 5: he didn't pass him because that.

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Speaker 3: Horse was used up.

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Speaker 5: Now, there's a lot of problems in the sport and

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Speaker 5: a lot of horses that are on drugs. We don't

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Speaker 5: have to go into all that, but I've just watched

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Speaker 5: should off horse racing to know that one he should

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Speaker 5: have passed them if Medina Spirit wasn't g stup, and

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Speaker 5: two Medina Spirit has been since been disqualified. It is

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Speaker 5: now mandalun is the official winner of the race. His

427
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,919
Speaker 5: name hangs at Churchill Downs. He's the official winner in

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Speaker 5: Derby history. But very much like UFC bets where when

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Speaker 5: one fighter is cheating, but it doesn't come out for

430
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 5: a few days later, bets are graded based on the

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Speaker 5: result that happened on the field to play, so it

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Speaker 5: doesn't matter the news that comes out later. You don't

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Speaker 5: get your tickets cashed because it comes out later that

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Speaker 5: Mandaluon's the official winner. He putn't announce it as the

435
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 5: official winner for a full year. But even after Medina's

436
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 5: Spirit was disqualified. It's not like those tickets get paid out.

437
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 5: It's not like the people who bet on Medina Spirit

438
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 5: have to pay the money back. So felt like he

439
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 5: was the best horse that day but for the cheating,

440
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 5: and also feel like considering he's the hindsight winner it's

441
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 5: just like a double knife in the heart.

442
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, I had all my.

443
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 5: Pick five, Pick four tickets, Pick six tickets connected to

444
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 5: Mandalun at the end, I had my exotics running through

445
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 5: him as well.

446
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:57,880
Speaker 3: I had futures on him.

447
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 5: So all told, it was between fifty to twenty thousand,

448
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 5: I believe I settled on eighteen thousand. And then on

449
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 5: top of that, all the people who telled my tickets

450
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 5: that day through Action Network, through Twitter. Yeah, I mean

451
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 5: it was probably hundreds of thousands of dollars lost in

452
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 5: potential earnings just as a result of that beat. So

453
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 5: something that will stick with me for a very long time.

454
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 5: And I'm still waiting on my payback for a Derby

455
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 5: superfecta to get me even from that.

456
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 6: Well closing on the outside. But four of them come

457
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 6: into the final prolong Mandalone fighting for the front, Blandina

458
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 6: Spiruit medals off coming to the finish, and the Kentucky

459
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 6: Derby here's the wire Madina spirit best what The Kentucky

460
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 6: Derby mandlone was second run, Meddle was third, two and

461
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 6: one oh too. The final Ton mot Beffort stands alone

462
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 6: with seven Derby wins.

463
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 2: Y're owed.

464
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, bedding gods owe you, and if there's any justice,

465
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 1: we're all gonna tail you this year and we will

466
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: all benefit from your wisdom and needs you to define

467
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: the impact of the wall of sound on these horses.

468
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's not even just as they're rounding the

469
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 5: first turn, but as they're getting into the starting gate.

470
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 5: You know, it's a lot some of these horses are

471
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 5: coming from smaller tracks where there were not as many

472
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 5: fans in the stands, and it's going to be much

473
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 5: louder at Churchill Downs. Even sier Leone got really worked

474
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 5: up in the gate before his last start. And also

475
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,719
Speaker 5: the way they load these horses, you know, they alternate sides,

476
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 5: and some horses are sitting in that starting gate for

477
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 5: like three minutes while the final ones are loading, and

478
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 5: they're getting a little bit nervous, and then you see

479
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 5: sometimes they have to back one out and then put

480
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 5: them back in because he was standing in the gate

481
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 5: too long and starting to get you know, a little

482
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 5: nervous and trying to throw the rider off. So it's

483
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 5: not even just as they round the first turn and

484
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 5: the effects that the crowd might have and sometimes horses

485
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 5: tend to drift out towards the sound too, Like they

486
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 5: they may be running in the center of the track

487
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 5: and they'll change leads and start to drift towards the

488
00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 5: outside rider who's basically guarding the guardrail for these horses,

489
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 5: and that gets a little nervy too, because you don't

490
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 5: want one of them jumping the fence.

491
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's a distraction.

492
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 5: It's like anything else, Like a college athlete going in

493
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,239
Speaker 5: you're you know, you go from a high school game

494
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 5: and you're going to a big college football stadium for

495
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,439
Speaker 5: the first time. That sound is going to hit you

496
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 5: and it's going to throw you off your game a

497
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 5: little bit. And I think the same thing happens with

498
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 5: these animals, and the same thing may even happen with

499
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 5: these rookie jockeys too. There's a nineteen year old jockey

500
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 5: in this oh well, and Sino ended up getting scratched,

501
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 5: but Axel Conceptsiom was supposed to ride him. He's a

502
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 5: nineteen year old jockey. You know, just imagine being in

503
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 5: that environment for the first time and you've never ridden

504
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 5: there and there's eighty thousand people, you know, screaming at

505
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 5: the top of their lungs like that would that would

506
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 5: absolutely throw anybody off, but especially I feel like if

507
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,120
Speaker 5: you're a younger kid, not used to it. So yeah,

508
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 5: the horses, the jockeys can all be impacted by it.

509
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 5: But it's just it's such a loud environment and it

510
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 5: can cause people. It could cause horses to be off

511
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 5: their game. So definitely is an impact, and it's it's

512
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 5: kind of unpredictable or unquantifiable, you know how it might

513
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 5: impact these individual horses. But I think Sierra Leone like

514
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 5: worth keeping an eye on in the starter gate, considering

515
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 5: he did get a little worked up before his last start.

516
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 4: I would say, as most listeners of our show, as

517
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 4: an amateur better voices. My head's spinning with a lot

518
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 4: of this stuff. You said, right, it's hard to track

519
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,360
Speaker 4: all of it. If you could just give me your

520
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 4: favorite win candidates, Like who if I came up to

521
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 4: you and I'm right right out to the window, just

522
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 4: give me the list of them right here, so I

523
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 4: know exactly which one's the bet? Which ones would they be?

524
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's two.

525
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 5: The seventeen fierceness of said, if he runs his best race,

526
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 5: he wins huge speed score advantage over this entire field

527
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 5: he ran, and this is like very interesting to think about.

528
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 5: He ran a ninety five Buyer speed figure as a maiden,

529
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 5: that's faster than seventy five percent of this field has

530
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 5: ever run. And he was two years old. It was

531
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 5: his first race. Came back, had that clunkers I talked

532
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 5: about in the mud. Then he ran a one five

533
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 5: Buyer speed figure in the Juvenile last year. That's the

534
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 5: fastest speed score in this race aside from mist the

535
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 5: dang who ran the one on one in the mud.

536
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 5: So he's already faster than everybody else. Came back as

537
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 5: a three year old, was short in the wholelley ball,

538
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 5: meaning it was his first star back off of a layoff.

539
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 5: He wasn't finally tuned, didn't have enough in the stretcher

540
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 5: on to get the distance. That happens sometimes when horses

541
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 5: are their first start off of a layoff, they're just

542
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 5: not as stretched out as they should be to meet

543
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 5: the distance. Second start back ran one hundred and ten

544
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 5: speed figure in the far To Derby. It's the highest

545
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 5: Derby Prep speed figure in the past decade plus. It's

546
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 5: the most impressive effort I've seen on tape in quite

547
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 5: some time from a Derby Prep race, so he has

548
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 5: the two fastest speed scores in the field. He's the

549
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 5: only horse to break one hundred on a dirt dry track,

550
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 5: so already way faster than everybody else, right, But he's

551
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 5: also the buzz horse this week and apparently his owner,

552
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 5: his trainer, all the clockers think he's going to take

553
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 5: a step forward.

554
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 3: So how does he lose? He needs to progress, and

555
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: the other horses in the field need to progress, they

556
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 3: need to run career best figures, while he runs a

557
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 3: figure that's worse than his last race. Also obviously starting

558
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 3: a trouble or just a ridiculous pace where his rider

559
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 3: doesn't correctly track two horses that fly out out in

560
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 3: front of the rest of the field and doesn't time

561
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 3: to ride well and closers end up passing him. So

562
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 3: that's how he loses.

563
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 5: I think he wins fifty to sixty percent of the

564
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 5: time realistically, and I think he's going to go off

565
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 5: at even money or four to five, which is in

566
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 5: line with a fifty to sixty percent prediction. If he's

567
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 5: five to two, you absolutely bet him to win, because

568
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 5: that is a plus two to fifty bet compared to

569
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 5: my projecting him. You know, even money or minus one fifty.

570
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 5: That would be a massive edge. If that was any

571
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,360
Speaker 5: other sport, you'd be putting a max bet on it. Frankly,

572
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 5: even if he's three to two, that's still like a

573
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 5: ten percent edge at forty percent relative to saying he

574
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 5: wins fifty percent of the time, So anything three to

575
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 5: two are better. On fierceness, I think is Bettable the

576
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 5: horse that I like most. If something happens to fierceness,

577
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 5: if he doesn't run his race, he gets caught at

578
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 5: the starting gate, it's.

579
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 3: A ridiculous pace.

580
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 5: The number eight, just to Touch I think runs extremely

581
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 5: well every time. He's going to be forward in a

582
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 5: pace that I don't think is going to be as

583
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 5: fast as it has been in the past couple of

584
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 5: years when we had a couple of long shots in

585
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 5: Rich Strike and Mage take down the field, you know,

586
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 5: coming from the back of the pack. So I think

587
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 5: we're going to get a slightly more moderate pace this year.

588
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 5: And Just the Touch showed in his last race where

589
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 5: he was defeated by Sierra Leone that he can stay

590
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 5: on the pace and then maintain that run even as

591
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 5: the other pace setters are falling off. And that's what

592
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 5: was most impressive to me. He finished second, in between

593
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 5: Sierra Leone and in between Epic Ride, who are both

594
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 5: in this field and both going to be coming from

595
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 5: the back of the pack, and they closed down on

596
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 5: the pace that day, but just a touch like the

597
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 5: other leaders in that race, didn't fall back. He stayed

598
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 5: in his position, and that's a really encouraging sign when

599
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 5: you're visually handicapping horse races. Horses who are either maintaining

600
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 5: their pace as the closers come in and they're the

601
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 5: only one who stayed up, or in a slow paced race,

602
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 5: when horses are the only one closing and nobody else

603
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 5: is either moving forward or back, they're the only one

604
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 5: moving up. Those are both visually strong signs from a

605
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 5: handicapping perspective. So Fierceness the likeliest win contender to me

606
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 5: just to touch my second favorite wing content. And if

607
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 5: you want to talk about top long shots, I don't

608
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 5: know if these horses necessarily are going to win the race,

609
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 5: but the number fifteen domestic product just what I talked

610
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 5: about moving up in a slow paced race the Tampa

611
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 5: Bay Derby, he was the only horse basically that advanced

612
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 5: position came from the back of the pack ended up

613
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 5: going from eight to first or fifth to first, and

614
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 5: everybody else basically stayed in the positions that they were.

615
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 5: So Domestic Product doesn't have the speed figures he has

616
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 5: like an eighty two high career high speed figure, but

617
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,239
Speaker 5: he has a phenomenal trainer in Chad Brown, he has

618
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 5: an elite jockey in Irad Ortiz Junior. I don't know

619
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 5: if I've ever seen a Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz

620
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 5: horse ever lined at thirty to one, and I think

621
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 5: he's underrated on the speed scores from that last race,

622
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 5: and also has been a very buzzy horse in terms

623
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 5: of training this week. Seems like he has a career

624
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 5: best effort in him. So the number fifteen Domestic Product

625
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 5: at thirty to one, I could say very similar things

626
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 5: for the number nineteen Resilience, who also is coming off

627
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 5: of a career best race where he added blinkers, meaning

628
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 5: his trainer wanted him to be more forward and not

629
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 5: focused on the horses around him. So sometimes they add

630
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 5: blinkers to get their horses more forward. So expect him

631
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 5: to be running a similar race to how he did

632
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 5: last time in the Wood Memorial. The one knock you

633
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 5: can make against that is the Wood Memorial has not

634
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 5: produced many Derby winners or successful Derby runners in recent years.

635
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 5: It's been one of the least predictive preps for the Derby,

636
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 5: whereas Fierceness won the Florida Derby, which is probably the

637
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 5: most predictive prep for Derby success.

638
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 3: So just another point in Fierceness's corner.

639
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 5: But yeah, the seventeen, Fierceness, the eight just to Touch

640
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 5: those are my two favorite win contenders, and then the

641
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 5: fifteen domestic product the nineteen Resilience my top two favorite

642
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 5: long shots. I don't know if I would give those

643
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 5: horses a real chance to win, but definitely think they

644
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 5: could run in the money.

645
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: Feels a little chalky this year, more chalky than usual.

646
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I don't like picking favorites in the Derby.

647
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: I really never do.

648
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 5: Now, if you're going to bet this from an exotic

649
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 5: perspective or what have you, or even multi race tickets,

650
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:53,719
Speaker 5: I think you should try to beat one of the favorites.

651
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 5: I think you should try to beat Fierceness, or you

652
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 5: should try to beat Sierra Leone. And even though I'm

653
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 5: on Fierceness right in my opinion on the race's fierceness

654
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 5: against Sierra Leone. If you're playing Sierra Leone, you're betting

655
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 5: on there being a pace meltdown and Sierra Leon getting

656
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 5: the race that he needs to run, and that means

657
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 5: that the number four catching Freedom at eight to one

658
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 5: should also be in the mix because he's a horse

659
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 5: who wants to come from the back. The seven Honor Marie,

660
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 5: the three, Mystic Day and those horses should all be

661
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 5: able to have success in a race where there is

662
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 5: a pace meltdown. So, like I said, even though I

663
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 5: am a handicapping fierceness to win, I like the favorite here.

664
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 3: If you like sier Leon, I see the argument for it.

665
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 3: I just think you.

666
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 5: Should make a correlated play with the other closers who

667
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,479
Speaker 5: are likely to have success if he does too. So

668
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 5: just think about that from a handicapping perspective too, Like

669
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 5: try to build a story or a narrative for how

670
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 5: you think the race could play out in different ways,

671
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 5: and then bet accordingly. If I think fearcens is going

672
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 5: to win, I think it's likely that Sierra Leon didn't

673
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 5: get the pace he needed to run into, so I'll

674
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 5: be using other horses.

675
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 3: Around him.

676
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:57,719
Speaker 1: Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in

677
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: the United States? Game On? That's right, it's game Time.

678
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: I love Game Time for two reasons. First, they still

679
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 1: sponsor this show. Second, I use game Time all the time.

680
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: They have amazing last minute deals, including pro and college sports.

681
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: I'm in our Action Network studios here in New York City.

682
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: I'm opening the game Time app right now, and what

683
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: do I see, Sorry, Sean Zillo, super Mets fan. I

684
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: see New York Yankee tickets available for less than forty dollars.

685
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app.

686
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 1: Get out have some fun this week.

687
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 2: You deserve it.

688
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your

689
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the game Time

690
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: app and use code Favorites for twenty dollars off your

691
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets lost prices guaranteed before we

692
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,239
Speaker 1: let you go. As I said at the top, you

693
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: know your host payoff pitch and we love when you

694
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: come on and give us some baseball insight, long term futures,

695
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: baseball insight. What do Simon and I have to be

696
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 1: thinking about right now when it comes to betting baseball,

697
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: And I should mention people should follow you in the

698
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: Action Network app. You're on a fucking tear right now

699
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: betting baseball. So what are we looking for when it

700
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: comes to betting baseball right now?

701
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 5: So with the injuries that have increased concerning pitchers, or

702
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 5: just with the pitchclock and all of the new rules

703
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 5: that have introduced, baseball is like desperately scrambling to figure

704
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 5: out why pitchers are getting injured more frequently. And there's

705
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 5: a it's basically a systemic issue regarding pitchers chasing stuff

706
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 5: plus and chasing velocity. And you need to throw hard

707
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 5: to get a college scholarship, and then you need to

708
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 5: throw hard to get drafted, and then you need to

709
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 5: throw hard to make the big leagues. And then once

710
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 5: you're on a big league contract, doesn't matter because you

711
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 5: could just get Tommy John surgery, because then you're making

712
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 5: three d or K year to sit out for a

713
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 5: year to get Tommy John. So, considering the amount of

714
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 5: pitching injuries that are happening, actually bet fewer World I

715
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 5: have one World Series feature.

716
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: It's on the Braves.

717
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 5: It's from before the season, before Spencer Strader got hurt

718
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 5: and I bet fewer World Series futures or pen and

719
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 5: futures this year than I ever had before because I

720
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 5: almost want to see who's healthy in October, and I

721
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 5: don't really care about the value I'm getting now if

722
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 5: a guy like Spencer Strader is going to go out

723
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 5: and then the Braves are without their best starting pitcher

724
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 5: for the playoffs. So I'm hesitant on World Series futures

725
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 5: this year. I've been betting many more divisional futures and

726
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 5: yes or no to make the playoff futures, et cetera.

727
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 5: I want to talk about baseball betting generally and how

728
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 5: edges diminish and how you can find new ones, and

729
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 5: in relation to all of this, like actual futures. So

730
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 5: something I noticed with the Rangers last season was played approach,

731
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 5: and I didn't know how to quantify it, but every

732
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 5: picture they faced, they were just grinding them down, taking

733
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 5: the pitches they were supposed to take, swinging pitches that

734
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 5: were actually in the zone, and people have started. There

735
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 5: was a stack called Seeger that Robert or Or quantified

736
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 5: over the offseason. You can go find it on Baseball Perspective.

737
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 5: It's a great article, but it's basically trying to quantify

738
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 5: plate discipline and hitters who make good swing decisions and

739
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 5: hitters who make bad swing decisions. And we can also

740
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 5: kind of turn that around and quantify pitchers who make

741
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 5: good pitch selections and pitchers who make bad pitch selections

742
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 5: right for particular accounts, but we're starting to get to

743
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 5: a point where we can now pinpoint data for players

744
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 5: and pinpoint data for teams based on the decisions that

745
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 5: they're making their process for actually deciding which balls to

746
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 5: select at. And there's a way different skill right deciding

747
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 5: whether to swing at a pitch and actually making contact

748
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 5: with that pitch and driving it hard. Those are all

749
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 5: completely different skill sets. So with that said, this is

750
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 5: something that I really feel like I noticed with the

751
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 5: Rangers last year but couldn't find a way to quantify it.

752
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 5: And the reason the stats called seegers because Corey Seeker

753
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 5: is better at this than anybody else. And we're about

754
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 5: to get to a point where these numbers are going

755
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 5: to start coming out publicly, and when they do, I

756
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 5: think using it is going to give you an advantage

757
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 5: over the betting market because I think swing decisions can

758
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 5: be very predictive for team's success, and we have all

759
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 5: of this data data points to quantify pitchers and pitcher

760
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 5: effectiveness and picture quality and pitcher stuff. But the stats

761
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 5: that we have, the advanced stats that we have for

762
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 5: hitters are still kind of batted ball data that's like

763
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 5: base how hard are you hitting the ball? How much

764
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 5: are you taking pitches? But we don't have process oriented stuff.

765
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 5: So that said, I think by the end of the

766
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 5: year this stuff is going to start coming out publicly

767
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 5: and we'll know which teams are better, which teams are

768
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 5: worse at this on top of which teams are actually

769
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 5: healthy come playoff time. So I don't have any actual

770
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 5: takes right now. But also I said before the season,

771
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 5: the Rangers are going to be getting to Gram and

772
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 5: Scherzer and Tyler Mahley and a bunch of arms back

773
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 5: for the second half of this season for the.

774
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: All Star break.

775
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 5: They're struggling right now, they're playing around five hundred baseball.

776
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 5: But I think this team is going to be much

777
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 5: better in the second half of the season than they

778
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 5: were in the first half of the season. And I

779
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 5: think they're continuing to take really good played approaches too,

780
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 5: even with their rookies. So I like Texas potentially as

781
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 5: a bet, as a future's bet around the All Star break.

782
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 5: I want that price to float up a little bit

783
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 5: closer though, to twenty to one. You can get as

784
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 5: high as fifteen to one right now. I think twenty

785
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 5: to one would probably be an entry point for me

786
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:22,959
Speaker 5: on the Rangers. They're going to be a way better

787
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 5: team in the second half and they were in the

788
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 5: first half. And I really want to see those swing

789
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 5: decision numbers come out because I think it's really going

790
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 5: to show that they excel at that relative to the

791
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 5: rest of the league. The Braves are very good at it. Two,

792
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 5: you know, and another point, another big picture point. Last

793
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 5: year I said, with all these picture injuries, I want

794
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 5: the teams that are offensive oriented come playoff time. Well,

795
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 5: the Rangers made the World Series and the Diamondbacks, who

796
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 5: put the ball in play more than any other team

797
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 5: made the World Series. And that's another very important factor

798
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 5: come playoff time. Two teams who make contact tend to

799
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 5: have a little bit more success. As we move towards,

800
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 5: you know, a power driven sport and a strikeout driven sport,

801
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 5: power on.

802
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 3: Both sides of the ball.

803
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 5: Putting the ball in play actually has a ton of

804
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 5: value some playoff time when you're facing better pitching, you

805
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 5: just need to be able to put contact and get

806
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 5: runners around the bases and win lower scoring games. So yeah,

807
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 5: I think teams like the Guardians could be annoying come

808
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 5: playoff time because they make a lot of contact. The

809
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 5: d Backs could be annoying because of the contact they make.

810
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:23,720
Speaker 5: But the Rangers I think have a great played approach.

811
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 5: And one other team too I want to mention is

812
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 5: just started out slow, a bit of a long shot,

813
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 5: but they're pitching is tremendous and I would not want

814
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 5: to face the San Francisco Giants in the playoffs. Obviously,

815
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 5: logan black bantlcion contender. They signed Blake Snell, who's the

816
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 5: nlcion from last year. He's struggling through it a bit

817
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 5: right now. I think he'll eventually find his way into form.

818
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 5: But they have a couple other young guys too, keat

819
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 5: and Win and Kyle Harrison who's starting today for them,

820
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 5: who look phenomenal. Jordan Wicks that converted from a reliever.

821
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 5: He looks great. So if the Giants get some more

822
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 5: offensive production and make the playoffs, they're a team I

823
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 5: would not want to see just because they're starting pitching

824
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 5: is going to be tremendous of an advantage over a

825
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 5: lot of teams.

826
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 4: So before we let you go, I gotta do a

827
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 4: buy and a cell. I mean, you didn't even mention

828
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 4: them the best team in baseball the twenty one wins

829
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 4: Philadelphia Phillies.

830
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 3: Is this real?

831
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 4: I have two guys hitting over three to thirty on

832
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 4: the Phillies right now, Like, I can't believe I have

833
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 4: just two stud batters. And Zach Wheeler is he a

834
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 4: real candidate for Cy Young? And then what the fuck

835
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 4: is going on with Houston? Like, if you haven't paid

836
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 4: attention to baseball people, the Houston Astro suck now.

837
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 3: It's crazy.

838
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 4: They're terrible.

839
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 5: Is this?

840
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 4: Are they a good by lower? Am I just living

841
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 4: in the past. It's Houston. The Astro is just bad now.

842
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 5: No, I think the Astros era might be over, and

843
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 5: I know they still have the names on the roster,

844
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 5: But this is a team who moved aggressively away from

845
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 5: analytics and back towards scouting and letting their owner make

846
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 5: decisions in the past couple of years. You know, they

847
00:38:55,000 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 5: lost Jeff Lunau during the entire conspiracy theory regarding the

848
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 5: buzzers and the technology and the dugout in the garbage cans. Right,

849
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 5: So their GM, Jeff Blueow was fired somehow, Alex Korra

850
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 5: has gotten a job twice since then, and Carlos Beltrand

851
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 5: remains unable to get a managerial job. I don't really

852
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 5: know what's going on there. But then they had James Click.

853
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 5: The owner and James Click were not clicking, and he

854
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 5: ended up getting rid of James Click, who I believe

855
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 5: now works in Boston. And then they signed Jose A.

856
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 5: Braw which was apparently an ownership decision. They signed Josh Hater,

857
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 5: which was apparently an owner decision. They have Jeff Bagwall

858
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 5: as like their chief advisor. Now he's never worked in

859
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 5: any sort of front office role aside from just being

860
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 5: friends with the owner. So the astros were just trending

861
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 5: in a direction from the top down where it's like,

862
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 5: what's going on with their management? Their owners making decisions.

863
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 5: They're not making decisions based off of analytics anymore. Signing

864
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 5: Jose Abreu is not something the previous iteration of these

865
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 5: general managers ever would have done. In an old first baseman

866
00:39:56,160 --> 00:40:01,240
Speaker 5: whose age is actually somewhat unknown, who's showing declining metrics

867
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 5: like that's just not something the Ashers would have done

868
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 5: in your past. But Alex Bregman has a swing change

869
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 5: this year. He's really struggling going through it. Their entire

870
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 5: rotation has been on the il at some point and

871
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 5: may get banged up again. So yeah, I could see

872
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 5: the Ashers making the playoffs. I could see them rallying,

873
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 5: but I would bet against it at this point and

874
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 5: I wouldn't take any of their futures or by low

875
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 5: on them at this point. I think Seattle and Texas

876
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 5: with the teams who coming out of that division, and

877
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 5: I think the Central Division is stronger this year and

878
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 5: potentially could get two teams the al least you know,

879
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 5: his five teams above five hundred, or at least did

880
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 5: at one point. So yeah, it's going to be difficult

881
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 5: for the West to get three teams. And starting this poorly,

882
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 5: they've really put themselves behind it. In terms of the Phillies, JT.

883
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 5: Real Muto is showing signs at the cline he was

884
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 5: last year as well, and Nick Castellanos is continuing to

885
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 5: chase it pitches outside of his zone and looks like

886
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,879
Speaker 5: he's going to age poorly. So the Phillies lineup has

887
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,919
Speaker 5: been rough this year. They're really struggling to score runs.

888
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 5: Unders have been hitting a lot in these Phillies games.

889
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 5: Their bullpen is tremendous and their starting rotation is as

890
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,919
Speaker 5: deep as it's ever been. Ranger Suarez looks as healthy

891
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 5: as he's looked in the past few years, pitching tremendously.

892
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,280
Speaker 5: Christopher Sanchez has been one of our Action Network's favorite

893
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 5: arms to bet on for the past couple years. He's

894
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 5: got a great change up. He's a really underrated lefty

895
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 5: and Zach Willers you brought up Simon. I think he

896
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 5: is a legitimate sy On candidate. His strikeout rate is

897
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 5: up five percent this year and it says there's a

898
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 5: result of a new pitch mix he's I believe he

899
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,320
Speaker 5: introduced a splitter which is going to like twelve or

900
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 5: fourteen percent of the time this year, and a strikeout

901
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 5: rate has increased. And strikeout rate is one of those

902
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 5: stats that stabilizes a lot more quickly than other data points,

903
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 5: especially for pitchers. When you see an increase in strikeout

904
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 5: rate and it carries across five to seven starts, it's

905
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 5: usually going to stabilize there, So, yeah, I think Zach

906
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 5: Willer may finally capture his cy Young Award this year

907
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 5: if he stays healthy. He was banged up last year.

908
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 5: He's he actually has some like more injury history concerns

909
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 5: than you would think.

910
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 3: But he also he played for the Mets. That's true.

911
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 3: It's very true.

912
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 5: The Mets doctor is of a history of like, yeah,

913
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 5: amazing everybody who came through. But yeah, I think Zach Wheler,

914
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 5: if he continues pitching like this, he may finally capture

915
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 5: his first cy Young Award. And he also seems like

916
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,959
Speaker 5: one of these guys who, like when Verlander was younger

917
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,439
Speaker 5: in his career, he would throw like ninety two ninety

918
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 5: three at the beginning of starts and then he was

919
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 5: throwing like ninety seventy to one hundred by the end

920
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,280
Speaker 5: of them. He knows how to pitch, right. He doesn't

921
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 5: just know how to throw the ball. He knows how

922
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 5: to adam, subtract and like save his best for when

923
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 5: he needs it. Willer's velocity was down it a little

924
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 5: bit at the start of the year and actually had

925
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 5: some concerns, But I think he's just saving bolts. I

926
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 5: think this is a guy who knows how to work

927
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 5: his way through a season and be healthy for October.

928
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 5: So health concerns based off of previous injuries, but in

929
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 5: terms of like intelligence or knowing how to pitch and

930
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 5: knowing how to keep his body healthy, I mean, Zack

931
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 5: Whiler's top of the top.

932
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the Phillies.

933
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 5: Pitching is better than it has been in the past

934
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 5: couple of years, and I think their offense is worse,

935
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 5: So I don't actually view them as a better team.

936
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 5: But I think even with the offensive declines, they're still

937
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 5: just as good and arguably deeper pitching staff. So you know,

938
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 5: if you like pitching more in October, it gives them

939
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 5: a better chance. But keeping the pitching healthy is what's

940
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 5: going to be difficult.

941
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 1: I always forget what a big baseball fan Simon is

942
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 1: closet huge Phillies fan.

943
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're so, he's so Philly.

944
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 5: Should say for the nleast with the pitching, right, the

945
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 5: fact that the Phillies are plus three twenty five and

946
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 5: they have deeper pitching than the Braves. Max Freed was

947
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 5: showing little concerns earlier in the year, but obviously Spencer

948
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 5: Schroder getting hurt is a huge injury. I wouldn't argue

949
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 5: against taking three to one three and a half to

950
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 5: one on the Phillies to win the nlleast at this point.

951
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 3: I wouldn't.

952
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 5: They're gonna get good starts every game, and they have

953
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 5: a really good bullpen, and you know, if Ronald Caccuna

954
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 5: gets hurt for the Braves, he was dealing with injuries

955
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 5: in the spring, like absolutely, you know have a chance

956
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 5: to win the division. So not something I've bet yet,

957
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 5: but something I've thought about in the past couple days

958
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,240
Speaker 5: is the Phillies potentially being wive to win their division.

959
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: It's everything Simon wanted to hear. As a reminder, the

960
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,839
Speaker 1: favorite podcast is presented by bet three six five. Bet

961
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971
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973
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975
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 2: Simon and I back.

976
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: Next week we'll start digging deep into NFL futures, win totals,

977
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:47,680
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978
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of the Favorites

979
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,359
Speaker 1: on the Action Network. You two page this Tuesday one

980
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 1: forty five pm Eastern, Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

981
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pow rate, review, subscribe, leave us

982
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want, feedback his gift until Tuesday.

983
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 6: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

984
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,320
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