1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:32,959 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Right now, though, 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: I want to turn our attention to the bond market. 8 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: At JP Morgan strateg just Jay Berry said a note 9 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 1: today that low US long term yields maybe the quote 10 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: new normal. Here to give us his take on this 11 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: is Bob Sinch, global strategist for Amirst Pierpont Securities. Bob, 12 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: do you agree? Well, you know, I think there's relative 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: to what but but certainly I think the profile um 14 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: of of longer term yields probably lower than some of 15 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: us who have been around the markets for forty years 16 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: or so would would think are normal. And I think 17 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: part of that is demographic. Right. We have a lot 18 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 1: of us baby boomers who are reaching retirement age. We're 19 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 1: looking for income, we tend to invest in bonds and 20 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: uh and I think that that has changed the dynamics However, 21 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: I think the supply demand situation is going to change 22 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: a lot in two thousand and eighteen. Um. You know, 23 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: the Treasury last year began in small steps reducing its 24 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: balance sheet. By the fourth quarter of this year, they're 25 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: going to be reducing their balance sheet by fifty billion 26 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: dollars of securities a month, you know, split between treasuries 27 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: and mortgages. And that's a pretty substantial amount of extra 28 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: supply on top of what looked like they'll be widening 29 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: budget deficits. So I think the supply dynamic, supply demand 30 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: dynamics will be changing pretty significantly this year. We think 31 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: inflation picks up a little bit this year, and you know, 32 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: the Fed moves four times. You add that up and 33 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: we come up with a tenure um treasury yields close 34 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: to three fifty at the end of the year. Wow, 35 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: that's that's a pretty big projection of three fifty. I'm 36 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: looking right now, and currently the ten year treasury yields 37 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 1: is uh to So that would be more than a 38 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: percentage point increase from where we are today. Um. Do 39 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: you think that this is going to be a violent 40 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 1: unwind or do you think it's just going to be 41 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: gradual throughout the year because that matters the path of this. Yes, 42 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: I do, and I think it's it's probably we'll have 43 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: little spasms. We certainly had a little one yesterday um 44 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: as the market start of the year. But I think 45 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: it will be fairly gradual because I think the markets 46 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: are going to be dragged along sort of kicking and screaming, um, 47 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: you know, with FED rate hikes, and each time they hike, 48 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: the markets will go like okay, but is that it 49 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: for a while? Um? You know, my colleagues, Steve Stanley 50 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: thinks not. Um. He does think we'll see core inflation 51 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: and add or very close to two percent by the 52 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: end of the year. And not only a FED that 53 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: that wants to normalize rates, but also a an e 54 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: c B that we think ends their asset purchase program 55 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: at the end of September, and the b O J, 56 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: which probably at some point later in the year, perhaps 57 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 1: after a leadership change, says enough is enough. We just 58 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: own enough j G B s, we known e T S, 59 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 1: we own a lot of everything in the Japanese markets, 60 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: and it's really time for that to come to an end. 61 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: So again, I think balance sheet reduction by the FED 62 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: and a withdrawal from asset purchases by foreign central banks 63 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: really changes the supply demand dynamics pretty substantially. Bob Sinch, 64 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: can you speak about the yield curve and perhaps help 65 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: us to understand why talking about the yield curve might 66 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: just be a waste of time. Yeah. I wouldn't go 67 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: as far as saying it's a waste of time, but 68 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 1: I do think there's a lot of exaggeration that goes on. Um. Look, 69 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: I've you know, I've done a lot of work on 70 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: the shape of the yield curve and and its ability 71 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: to forecast the economy over you know, the last four 72 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: or five decades, and um, you know, there are times 73 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: when it's a reasonably good indicator. Normally that's when the 74 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: curve becomes very inverted. But for example, we had a 75 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: period where the yield curve, the two tens spread that 76 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: everyone likes to focus on, began declining substantially and and 77 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: actually turned negative um by you know, to ear And 78 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: yet um, real GDP growth didn't peak until the first 79 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: quarter on a year of a year basis, until the 80 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: first quarter of two thousand. So number one, there can 81 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: be very variable lags between when the yield curve flattens 82 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: or inverts two s tens and when the economy adjusts. 83 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: The other one is is whether the yield curve really 84 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 1: tells us what it used to tell us. And one 85 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 1: of the things things that Steve Stanley and I have 86 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 1: looked at is actually comparing the real Fed funds rate 87 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 1: adjusted for core inflation to the two tens spread, and 88 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: you go back from five through through two thousand and 89 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: five very very actually through two thousand ten, very tight correlation, 90 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 1: which is really broken down in the last three years. 91 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: So now you have a two tens spread of about 92 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: fifty three basis points, which is actually flatter than the 93 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: average for the last thirty years of one point one. 94 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: Whereas the real Fed funds rate is still zero, it's 95 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: still sharply lower. So if I look at the two 96 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: of those in the break and the correlation, I say 97 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,599 Speaker 1: to myself, well, which one seems like it's correct, in 98 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: which one might be distorted. I think it's the yield 99 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: curve that's distorted because we've had so much purchasing by 100 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: by global central banks, and in fact, our view is 101 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: that the stance of monetary policy is still very accommodated 102 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: with a real FED funds rate that's virtually zero. Bob 103 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 1: since thank you very much for being with us, global 104 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: strategist for AMERSH pure Pont Securities talking about the yield 105 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,479 Speaker 1: curve and what it means for the future of the 106 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 1: economy by the end of the century. Database company Zillo 107 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 1: Group estimates that almost half a million Miami homes could 108 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: be literally underwater, that is, with actual H two O 109 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: covering them. Here to tell us how this is changing 110 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: the real estate market in that region is Christopher Flavelle. 111 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 1: He's a climate policy reporter for Bloomberg CA Newes and 112 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: comes to us from Washington, d C. Christopher, can you 113 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: just give us a sense of how seriously home buyers 114 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: in Florida, I'm particularly the south to Florida are taking 115 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: this threat right now? You know, it's it is really 116 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: hard to tell. I think there's a lot of homebuyers 117 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: who just either are not aware of it or are 118 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: aware of it and don't worry about it. They say 119 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: it won't hit me. But the trend that we're writing 120 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: on is there's a growing number and still a minority, 121 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: but it's a larger and large minority saying I'm aware 122 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: of this because I can't ignore it. They've got what's 123 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: called sunny day floods in South Florida. We're out of nowhere. 124 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: On a sunny day, you'll have water coming up through 125 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 1: the limestone through the streets, causing a huge headache. And 126 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: then you get storms like Irma. And we were a 127 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: piece looking at how Irma reminded people that living in 128 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: this beautiful part of the country also has consequences. And eventually, 129 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: no one knows when, but eventually those consequences, as they 130 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: get worse, we'll start to drive down home values. No 131 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 1: one knows when that will happen, but I think the 132 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: signals are starting that that it could be soon. Christopher, 133 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 1: what about the idea of going to higher ground? That 134 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: might be a challenge in Florida, But there are things 135 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: called apartment houses. Some people have actually moved from their 136 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: homes into those apartment houses. But even that doesn't seem 137 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: to help. Yeah. I spoke to one homeowner who has 138 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,679 Speaker 1: sold his home in a lovely part of South Florida 139 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: called Coral Gables a few years back. Worried that eventually 140 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: property values would fall, and he wanted to get up 141 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: before then, so he bought a smaller condo. He downsized. 142 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: He's on a high ridge in Biscayne Bay and lo 143 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: and behold, his building was just throttled by by IRMA. 144 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: And he said he's gonna leave Florida altogether because it 145 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: doesn't want the physical insecurity or the financial insecurity of 146 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: knowing that whatever money he puts into property could be 147 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: wiped out if enough other homebuyers say I also don't 148 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: want this headache and leave before he does. So you're 149 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: into this sort of preemptive cycle where people are thinking 150 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 1: about leaving the market now, even though climate change is 151 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: not yet a terrible thing, just annoying, but they're worried 152 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: that if they don't leave, they might get stuck in 153 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: a downward market, and so they're leaving now and others 154 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 1: might follow them. So Christopher, that they seem to be 155 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: in the minority, because right now developers are still building. 156 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: I was just in Florida. Still a lot of building 157 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: going on. Uh. And frankly, the new tax law will 158 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 1: only push more people or the theory is down to 159 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: Florida and other low tax states from higher tax states. 160 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: That's already happened. So at what point are we going 161 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: to hit a tipping point and how much does the 162 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:26,599 Speaker 1: acceleration and development given some of these climate change effects, 163 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: how much does that exacerbate the potential effects. Well, it 164 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 1: seems like the one of the most interesting parlor games 165 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 1: in South Florida right now is that debate over just 166 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: what the trigger will be, whether it is another big storm, 167 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: whether it's on the change in policy now. Last year, 168 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: the House Representatives looked at a measure that would have 169 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: required a higher flood insurance rates for most cases and 170 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: be disclosure by people selling their homes of the flood 171 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: risk facing those particular homes. Either those changes neither which 172 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:00,719 Speaker 1: became law, but if they became and the Senate will 173 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: take them up at some point this year, those could 174 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: have a real downward effect. Another thing could be if 175 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: people's attitudes change. It's so hard to measure the psychology 176 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: of climate change. At some point you could flip where 177 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: the average person Seal Florida says, I don't care about this, 178 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: and then bang, they wake up and something happens and 179 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: they do care, and and knowing when that might happen 180 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: is just impossible. Well, one one one interesting part of 181 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: the story that you wrote was looking at a man 182 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 1: named Albert Slap, whose business is surging in the wake 183 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: of increasing fears about flooding and climate change. Can you 184 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: give us a sense of his perspective and how this 185 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: could be one of the signs you were talking about 186 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: that attitudes might be changing a bit. Yeah, he runs 187 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: sort of a boutique firm that will give you very 188 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: tailored flood risk information on a property if you're thinking 189 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 1: of buying it, if you're an insurance company, if you're 190 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 1: a lender thinking of is shoing a mortgage, he'll tell 191 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: you what the likely flood risk for that particular home 192 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: or parcelor land might be. And he said, since irma, 193 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: his business is just on fire. And I think he's 194 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: right in saying that what's good for him isn't necessarily 195 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 1: good for the market, because the more you'll pay attention 196 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: to this, the more they buy or don't buy a 197 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: home based on risk and not just how pretty it is. 198 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: The more people will say, you know what, it's lovely here, 199 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: but these title floods will just get worse, These storms 200 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: will get worse, and the seas will come up. Uh, 201 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: And so eventually there's some intangible trade off that none 202 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: of us can understand. But it happens inside the head 203 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: of every potential homebuyers saying is it worth the risk 204 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: to live somewhere this gorgeous? And that that calculation is 205 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: impossible to predict, but it will eventually flip over to 206 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,839 Speaker 1: probably not. Well, Christopher just quickly, he says that there 207 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: was a quote of a story where he talks about 208 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: how when you have fish swimming in your driveway, it 209 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 1: is not an amenity like a swimming pool. Not everyone 210 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: wants fish in their driveway, but you know, if the 211 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 1: view is lovely, maybe maybe you'll suck it up for 212 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 1: a little while. Uh, eventually, probably that's not the kind 213 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: of market you want to in. Christopher Flavel with the 214 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: outlook on fish in your driveway, Climate policy reporter for 215 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, coming to us from Washington, d C. The 216 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: tax bill has been passed. President Trump has signed it. 217 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: The question now is what is it and what will 218 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: the effect be on real estate markets, particularly in big 219 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: cities that have notoriously high tax rates like New York. 220 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,680 Speaker 1: Here to explain to us his vision of it is 221 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: Seth Pinsky, Executive vice president and investment manager of the 222 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: r x R Metropolitan Emerging Market strategy for our x 223 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: R realty in New York City. Seth You're quoted in 224 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: a story in the Real Deal saying, this is a 225 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: dramatic new reality that New York City is going to 226 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: be operating under. In many ways, this Hacks bill was 227 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:05,079 Speaker 1: deliberately and maliciously designed to hurt this region. How much 228 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: is it going to hurt it with respect to real estate? 229 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: You know, it's very hard to say. Actually so disturbing 230 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: about the tax bill. In addition to the fact that 231 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: it was designed to harm this region and regions like it, 232 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: is the fact that I'm fairly certain that very few 233 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: of the people who voted for the bill, let alone 234 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: the person who signed the bill, actually know what's in 235 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: it um. And it's likely that there are elements in 236 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: it um that are going to be quite harmful, especially 237 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: to homeowners in high cost suburbs areas with very high 238 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: property tax um. But there also could be parts of 239 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: the tax bill that could be very beneficial to the 240 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: city's economy. And I think it's gonna be one of 241 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: these things that we're just gonna have to watch play 242 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:46,079 Speaker 1: out to see what the net impact is. But there 243 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: will certainly be winners and losers in this region. Talk 244 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: a little bit about the connection between infrastructure and real 245 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: estate development and how it has evolved, let's say in 246 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: big urban areas like New York or other metropolitan region. Well, 247 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: infrastructure is really the key to affordability UM in any region. 248 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: UM In a place like New York, where more and 249 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 1: more people are trying to squeeze into the same amount 250 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 1: of area, the only way really that you can lower 251 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 1: costs is by building more. And as we've seen in 252 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: the city over the last several years, when you try 253 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: to increase development in the same small number of locations, 254 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: you end up hitting political roadblocks. People don't want to 255 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: have a hundred story towers next to them. So if 256 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: you're going to address that, you really need infrastructure to 257 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: spread people out. The idea is not so much to 258 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: create sprawl. That is a recipe for for significant problems 259 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: that we've all seen in the suburbs. But the idea 260 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: is to use infrastructure to make it so that people 261 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: can live farther away by distance but still be close 262 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: to the city in terms of time. But having said that, 263 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: that's an issue that devil's not just New York, but 264 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: I think of Silicon Valley where people's commutes have been 265 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: extended to to hours, in some cases three hours, and 266 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: they're driving. Uh, you have Los Angeles the same kind 267 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: of situation Atlanta, huge traffic snarls. Is there a better 268 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: way to think about how to invest money in real 269 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: estate so that we get the outcome that doesn't involve 270 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: sitting in a two and a half hour commute each way? Sure. UM. 271 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: One of the things that we at r XR have 272 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: been doing is focusing on suburban transit lines, looking at 273 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: rail nooads around which in many cases you find acres 274 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: and acres of surface parking lots, even though they're easily 275 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: accessible to everything that is beneficial about New York City. 276 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: For example, UM, we worked with the City of New 277 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: Rochelle to entitle about eleven million square feet of development 278 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: in downtown New Rochelle. The travel time from New Rochelle 279 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: by Metro North into Grand Central is actually shorter than 280 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: the travel time from my neighborhood in Brooklyn Park Slope 281 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: to Grand Central. So these are areas that are incredibly 282 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: trans accessible, that have the infrastructure today, but that we're 283 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: simply not taking advantage of. You know, I'm struck by 284 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: the fact that actual transactions sales of used homes in 285 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: New York City declined in the fourth quarter, and I 286 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: believe where the lowest and is two thousand and eleven. 287 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: A lot of this had to do with the uncertainty 288 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: around the tax plan. What the mortgage intrasductibility might look like, Uh, 289 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: what the salt deduction might look like. I'm just wondering, 290 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: you know, especially as you see development continuing in this region. 291 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: You know, is this uncertainty that could basically send values 292 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 1: down substantially in a way that people are not expecting 293 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: right now. Well, it's hard to imagine that the loss 294 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: of deductibility of property tax um even more than income taxes, 295 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: is not going to have an impact on the price 296 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 1: of homes, especially in the suburbs, where property taxes in 297 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: many communities are twenty thirty plus thousand dollars a year um. 298 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: At the same time, though, there are larger economic forces 299 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: at work um. And you can imagine a world in which, 300 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: through the Trump administration and what the Republican Congress is doing, 301 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,239 Speaker 1: an industry like Wall Street were to boom, and in 302 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 1: that case, that would have a positive impact on values. 303 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,640 Speaker 1: And that's not necessarily a good thing for society. It's 304 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 1: not necessarily a bad thing for society, but the impact 305 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: is really very hard to evaluate at this point, um. 306 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 1: And again, until we start to really be able to 307 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: unpack this bill, which was passed under the cover of darkness, 308 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: it's going to be hard to say whether it's it's 309 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: net effect is going to be good or bad. But 310 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: right now commercial real estate investors seem to be pretty 311 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: excited about it. Yeah, Look, there are things in the bill, um, 312 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: maybe accidentally, maybe done on purpose, given the profession of 313 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: our president that clearly we're designed to help the real 314 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 1: estate industry, and so from the real estate industry's perspective, 315 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: those changes are going to be positive. But at the 316 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: end of the day, the success or failure of the 317 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: real estate industry is really driven by the success or 318 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 1: failure of the market in which the real estate is located. 319 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: And again, until we see how all the different forces 320 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 1: play out, it's gonna be hard to say exactly how 321 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,120 Speaker 1: it's going to impact our market. Just to go back 322 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: to the New Rochelle example, because you put together a 323 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: group of interested parties, investors, plus the city, this is 324 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: a part of a larger redevelopment. Is that where we're 325 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: going to see in more of these I want to say, 326 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: satellite communities, that they're going to be major redevelopments all 327 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: along the coast and really in every place that's centered 328 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: that uses a big urban area as a center. It's 329 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: a good question. And what's interesting is that historically the 330 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: suburbs were actually quite averse to high density development UM. 331 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: Many of the people who moved to suburbs moved to 332 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: the suburbs intentionally to get away from everything urban. UM. 333 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: What's been happening over the last couple of decades, though, 334 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: is that UM the urban areas have become more and 335 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: more successful. They're especially attractive to young professionals and aging 336 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: baby boomers and empty nesters, and that's made it difficult 337 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: for the suburbs to attract the businesses that are looking 338 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 1: for that workforce. That in turn has undermined the tax 339 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: basis of these communities. And so you are starting to 340 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,399 Speaker 1: see an alignment now that didn't exist in the past 341 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: between these communities and the development community. And the key 342 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: I think to being successful in these communities is not 343 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: coming in and simply imposing a vision on the community, 344 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: but working with the vision to understand what the community. 345 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: With the community, I should say, to understand what the 346 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: community's vision is and then to to help to realize 347 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: that vision in a way that's collaborative. Thank you very 348 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: much for being with a. Seth Pinsky, Executive vice president, 349 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 1: investment manager of the r XR Metropolitan Emerging Market Strategy. 350 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: Trading is relatively muted, and there's a question about whether 351 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: this just because everyone's getting back to work and doesn't really, 352 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 1: uh I feel like doing too much quite yet, or 353 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: is this because Miffed two just went into effect today. 354 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 1: Here to talk about those regulations, which are the biggest 355 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 1: regulatory overhaul in ten years for Europe is Trista Kelly, 356 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: Markets structure team for Bloomberg who joins us from London. Trista, 357 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,199 Speaker 1: how much can we really tell about how smoothly Miffed 358 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: two is going at this point, given the fact that 359 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: a lot of the biggest venues are not yet forced 360 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: to be in compliance. Yeah, that's a good question. I think. 361 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: One of the the things that traders have been saying 362 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 1: is there is a cap coming on dark pools and 363 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: that does not kick in until next week, and so 364 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: once that dark Pool cap comes in, then we're gonna 365 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 1: see uh, probably see some flow start to scatter around 366 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 1: all these new trading venues and that might affect liquidity 367 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: as well. Just back up for one second. Dark pool 368 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: cap can you just explain what that is? Sure? Basically 369 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: that EU is saying there's way too much trading. That's 370 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: that's happening in the dark right now. So with MiFID, 371 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: let's cap or limit the amount that can go into 372 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: dark pools. And a lot of these dark pools, uh, 373 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 1: some of them are run by exchanges themselves. For example, 374 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 1: the London Stock Exchange has one called Turquoise, so they're saying, 375 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: let's get that onto that trading onto liquid lit lit exchanges. 376 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: Excuse me, and uh so, but those limits will not 377 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: kick in until next week. And a lot of banks 378 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: are saying, okay, well we can have our alternative trading 379 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: venue called a systematic internalizer. This is getting geeky very quickly, 380 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: I apologize, No, this is what it is. And you 381 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: know this is a fIF page bill we should say, 382 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: with more than two billion dollars of expense put into 383 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: compliance with it. Lots of geeky sections, but they have 384 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 1: a significant impact, please go on, right. So, so the 385 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: biggest banks are saying, okay, well we have these new 386 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: venues called systematic internalizers because we won't be able to 387 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: use what's called a crossing network anymore. So everybody's expecting, oh, 388 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: these a lot of this flow once these dark pool 389 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 1: caps kick in, is going to go to these systematic internalizers. 390 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: Systematic internalizers are not subject to dark pool caps, and 391 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: let's face it, once you get over the standard market size, 392 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 1: they can go pretty much as dark as they want. 393 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: So that's one of the reasons, one of the many 394 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 1: reasons a lot of people are saying these big bulge 395 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,199 Speaker 1: bracket banks are going to do so well out of 396 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: this trista. Do you get the impression or maybe maybe 397 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 1: you have another thought about it that the people who 398 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: put together these regulations do they understand who actually works 399 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 1: in the financial industry and how they think. Well, if 400 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: we if you read our our top live blog today, 401 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: we had a lot of traders complaining both on Twitter 402 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: and elsewhere. I mean it's not new, They've been complaining 403 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: for a long time, but that's I mean, that's what 404 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: market market traders do, and regulators obviously say, well, come on, 405 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: we're just trying to make things more transparent and better 406 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 1: for the little guy. You know, there's a yin and 407 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,119 Speaker 1: yang here and what it remains to be seen if 408 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: you know which has the better point. But I mean, yes, 409 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 1: there are some unintended consequences and some big loopholes. And 410 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I will add the U s SEC has 411 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 1: a totally different rules than miffed when it comes to 412 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: how research has paid for. So these types of things 413 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 1: are gonna have to be worked out at some point. 414 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: And so that's why people are saying, well, what about 415 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: miffid three And yeah, it's it's kind of giving me 416 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: a headache already, Dave, Just real quick trading usually is 417 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: muted at this point in the year, correct, Like, it's 418 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,239 Speaker 1: not an anomaly that we're just seeing light volumes right 419 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: now or we can't attribute that pure it tends to be. 420 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I will note that if you look at 421 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 1: trading in NYC and NASDAC listed shares UH ninety five 422 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:49,359 Speaker 1: million or so in the first hour up roughly from yesterday. 423 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: Some things are gearing up for a new year, and 424 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: that's playing out in terms of the kind of numbers 425 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,639 Speaker 1: we're seeing. Dave Wilson, Thank you very much, Bloomberg Stocks 426 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: Commas send David e mail at d Wilson at Bloomberg 427 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: dot net and sign up for his daily free email newsletter. 428 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 1: It will make you a smarter investor. Our thanks also 429 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: to trist To Kelly, market Structure team leader for Bloomberg. 430 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg p m L podcast. 431 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 432 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,880 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox, I'm 433 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. 434 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us 435 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio