Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: The single best idea and the single best idea is
Speaker 2: a terrific lineup of conversation on this job's day and
Speaker 2: of course some election coverage. Major shout out to David Gurra.
Speaker 2: It sounds romantic, but it's not. He's in Wisconsin interviewing
Speaker 2: Senate candidates, and then he's got to take a plane.
Speaker 2: He's got to wait here, it's twenty minutes late, it's
Speaker 2: an hour late, the car's stuck in traffic because of
Speaker 2: Yankee Game five, baseball whatever. And then he gets home
Speaker 2: and then he's got to go on a plane again.
Speaker 2: And he's leaving on a jet plane out to Pennsylvania
Speaker 2: where he'll really get the pulse of Pennsylvania over the weekend.
Speaker 2: And David Gurrel will be part of our election night coverage.
Speaker 2: That's five PM. Joe Matthew Cayley lines in at seven.
Speaker 2: John Farrell Amah's joined as well with David Gurr's wonderful
Speaker 2: perspective from at Pennsylvania. Wrapped around that as a job's
Speaker 2: day and what the American economy means for the election.
Speaker 2: We started strong with Claudia some New Century advisors.
Speaker 3: So having spent a lot of time in the last year,
Speaker 3: so thinking about what is this disconnect between what we
Speaker 3: see in the data, which largely looks pretty good, and
Speaker 3: what we see coming out of people's mouths, which is
Speaker 3: largely not good. I think there's a residual effect of
Speaker 3: what we have gone through with the pandemic the last
Speaker 3: four and a half years. I had a couple tell me,
Speaker 3: you know, you're right. We look better on paper than
Speaker 3: we did four years ago, but we don't feel like it,
Speaker 3: and we're worried that tomorrow we might not be. So
Speaker 3: I think we've come out of a period that's very
Speaker 3: confusing things. There have been lots of twists and turns,
Speaker 3: most of them have not been for the good. So
Speaker 3: I can understand why people are not comfortable in like
Speaker 3: even if they've made progress in really embracing it. So
Speaker 3: I think that I think coming out of the pandemic,
Speaker 3: we do have some scars emotionally, even if we don't
Speaker 3: want to admit it. And I think also legitimate uncertainties
Speaker 3: about what comes next. So I think that's an extra
Speaker 3: factor that's weighing on the country. In the cinema this year.
Speaker 2: Cloone Simon the basic tone off the jobs report, and
Speaker 2: this was led by the great work of Annawoi. We
Speaker 2: were thrilled joined us with Bloomberg Economics. Is it's not
Speaker 2: just the hurricanes. That's the message I got today. There's
Speaker 2: something else going on, and that's got to be part
Speaker 2: of the discussion of the Fed. Two days after the election,
Speaker 2: we'll do the Fed decides November at seven. What we
Speaker 2: decided is Ellen Zenner Morgan Stanley Investment does great analysis.
Speaker 2: Here is Ellen Zenner on your wage.
Speaker 4: Look average early earnings in this report. It's a tiny
Speaker 4: sample and it can be distorted from month to month
Speaker 4: depending on what hours worked do so it's a calculation thing.
Speaker 4: And so four percent average Dolly earnings on you over
Speaker 4: your basis, you would say, gosh, that's a little bit
Speaker 4: higher than what would be consistent with the Fed's two
Speaker 4: percent goal. You look at the Employment Cost Index, which
Speaker 4: came out this week. That was Yellen's favorite measure. It
Speaker 4: continues to be the Fed's favorite measure moment. That's a
Speaker 4: much more comprehensive measure of wages and labor costs, and
Speaker 4: that is absolutely right now consistent with the Fed's two
Speaker 4: per single which means that yes it is. It is healthy,
Speaker 4: so you're right, it's healthy, but it's not too.
Speaker 2: Not too fast, Ellen Zender, there, we were looking at
Speaker 2: the same thing at the same time. Let me explain this.
Speaker 2: It's important. In the jobs report, there are two jobs reports,
Speaker 2: and they've got average ally this weekly that there's lots
Speaker 2: of earnings numbers. Most pros don't look at them. What
Speaker 2: they look at is the ECI, the Employment cost Index
Speaker 2: is mis Zentner mentions there, and it's a measurement of
Speaker 2: wages and benefits, which is a big deal because benefits
Speaker 2: is way more part of your paycheck than you ever
Speaker 2: think about if you're fortunate enough to have a benefit package.
Speaker 2: And the answer is, and I don't have the numbers
Speaker 2: in front of me, but we were up at a
Speaker 2: lofty five percent and we've come down, but we haven't
Speaker 2: got the ECI back to where it was in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2: And that's what a lot of people are watching as well.
Speaker 2: We'll watch that with anawog on Bloomberg Economics, Ellen's Entner,
Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley, and Claudius Som of New Century Advisors. As
Speaker 2: we go to the FED meeting next week, we're out
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