1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 2: The single best idea and the single best idea is 3 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 2: a terrific lineup of conversation on this job's day and 4 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 2: of course some election coverage. Major shout out to David Gurra. 5 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 2: It sounds romantic, but it's not. He's in Wisconsin interviewing 6 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: Senate candidates, and then he's got to take a plane. 7 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,319 Speaker 2: He's got to wait here, it's twenty minutes late, it's 8 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: an hour late, the car's stuck in traffic because of 9 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 2: Yankee Game five, baseball whatever. And then he gets home 10 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 2: and then he's got to go on a plane again. 11 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 2: And he's leaving on a jet plane out to Pennsylvania 12 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 2: where he'll really get the pulse of Pennsylvania over the weekend. 13 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: And David Gurrel will be part of our election night coverage. 14 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 2: That's five PM. Joe Matthew Cayley lines in at seven. 15 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 2: John Farrell Amah's joined as well with David Gurr's wonderful 16 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 2: perspective from at Pennsylvania. Wrapped around that as a job's 17 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 2: day and what the American economy means for the election. 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: We started strong with Claudia some New Century advisors. 19 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: So having spent a lot of time in the last year, 20 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 3: so thinking about what is this disconnect between what we 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 3: see in the data, which largely looks pretty good, and 22 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 3: what we see coming out of people's mouths, which is 23 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 3: largely not good. I think there's a residual effect of 24 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 3: what we have gone through with the pandemic the last 25 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: four and a half years. I had a couple tell me, 26 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 3: you know, you're right. We look better on paper than 27 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 3: we did four years ago, but we don't feel like it, 28 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 3: and we're worried that tomorrow we might not be. So 29 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 3: I think we've come out of a period that's very 30 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,279 Speaker 3: confusing things. There have been lots of twists and turns, 31 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 3: most of them have not been for the good. So 32 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 3: I can understand why people are not comfortable in like 33 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: even if they've made progress in really embracing it. So 34 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: I think that I think coming out of the pandemic, 35 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 3: we do have some scars emotionally, even if we don't 36 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 3: want to admit it. And I think also legitimate uncertainties 37 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 3: about what comes next. So I think that's an extra 38 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,279 Speaker 3: factor that's weighing on the country. In the cinema this year. 39 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 2: Cloone Simon the basic tone off the jobs report, and 40 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 2: this was led by the great work of Annawoi. We 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 2: were thrilled joined us with Bloomberg Economics. Is it's not 42 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: just the hurricanes. That's the message I got today. There's 43 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 2: something else going on, and that's got to be part 44 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 2: of the discussion of the Fed. Two days after the election, 45 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: we'll do the Fed decides November at seven. What we 46 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 2: decided is Ellen Zenner Morgan Stanley Investment does great analysis. 47 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 2: Here is Ellen Zenner on your wage. 48 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 4: Look average early earnings in this report. It's a tiny 49 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 4: sample and it can be distorted from month to month 50 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 4: depending on what hours worked do so it's a calculation thing. 51 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 4: And so four percent average Dolly earnings on you over 52 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 4: your basis, you would say, gosh, that's a little bit 53 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,119 Speaker 4: higher than what would be consistent with the Fed's two 54 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 4: percent goal. You look at the Employment Cost Index, which 55 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 4: came out this week. That was Yellen's favorite measure. It 56 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 4: continues to be the Fed's favorite measure moment. That's a 57 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 4: much more comprehensive measure of wages and labor costs, and 58 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 4: that is absolutely right now consistent with the Fed's two 59 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 4: per single which means that yes it is. It is healthy, 60 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 4: so you're right, it's healthy, but it's not too. 61 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 2: Not too fast, Ellen Zender, there, we were looking at 62 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 2: the same thing at the same time. Let me explain this. 63 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: It's important. In the jobs report, there are two jobs reports, 64 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 2: and they've got average ally this weekly that there's lots 65 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: of earnings numbers. Most pros don't look at them. What 66 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 2: they look at is the ECI, the Employment cost Index 67 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: is mis Zentner mentions there, and it's a measurement of 68 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: wages and benefits, which is a big deal because benefits 69 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 2: is way more part of your paycheck than you ever 70 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 2: think about if you're fortunate enough to have a benefit package. 71 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 2: And the answer is, and I don't have the numbers 72 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 2: in front of me, but we were up at a 73 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 2: lofty five percent and we've come down, but we haven't 74 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: got the ECI back to where it was in twenty nineteen. 75 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: And that's what a lot of people are watching as well. 76 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 2: We'll watch that with anawog on Bloomberg Economics, Ellen's Entner, 77 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley, and Claudius Som of New Century Advisors. As 78 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 2: we go to the FED meeting next week, we're out 79 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 2: on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts on your commute, Android Auto, 80 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 2: Apple car Play. Thank you for listening on sirious and 81 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 2: on podcasts Spotify and on Apple podcasts, on YouTube podcasts. 82 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 2: This is single best idea.