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Speaker 1: From the red carpet arrivals to glamorous after parties. It's

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Speaker 1: the most magical night of the year. And today the

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Speaker 1: Action Network honors Hollywood the best way we know how

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Speaker 1: by helping you profit up the monumental creative achievements of others.

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Speaker 1: And what's more Hollywood than that. Let's gamble on the

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Speaker 1: Academy Awards.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? This is the Action Network podcast presented

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Speaker 2: by FANDU. I'm your host, Chris Rabon, and this is

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Speaker 2: the betting preview for the ninety fifth presentation of the

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Speaker 2: Academy Awards. I'm here with my dude, Colin Wilson, and

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Speaker 2: we are going to break down all of the top

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Speaker 2: categories as well as all of our best bets outside

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Speaker 2: those categories. Everything you need to bet the ninety fifth Oscars.

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Speaker 2: We'll start with Best Picture and keep going down. So, Colin,

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Speaker 2: what's going on to be here with you again? And

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Speaker 2: how you feeling about this year's race.

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Speaker 3: There's not a lot of times you and I get

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Speaker 3: to cross streams. I look forward to this podcast, so

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Speaker 3: our fourth time we've done this. We love doing this

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Speaker 3: Oscars betting and we've made some big money.

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Speaker 2: I will just get it out right now.

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Speaker 3: I'm still pissed Cynthia Ribo did not win our fifty

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Speaker 3: to one years ago. Let's keep chipping awa, Let's see

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Speaker 3: if we can find some winners here.

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Speaker 2: Poor one out of Cynthia Man. That was tough, but

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure we made it back. But let's start

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Speaker 2: our best picture here, thank ju.

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Speaker 3: Well, it all comes down to this, the best picture

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Speaker 3: and the moment.

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Speaker 2: Dejon. The front runner is everything everywhere, all at once

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Speaker 2: at minus seven hundred, which means you got to bet

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Speaker 2: seven hundred hours to win one hundred. For those who bet,

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Speaker 2: maybe only during the Oscars. If you listen to this,

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Speaker 2: you know, shouts to you, Banshee. The Vinish Sharon is

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Speaker 2: next at eleven to one, so a huge gap between

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Speaker 2: the front runner and everybody else, all quiet on the

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Speaker 2: western front fourteen to one. The Fableman's at twenty five

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Speaker 2: to one, and then a bunch of long shots after that,

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Speaker 2: top Gun, Maverick, Tar, Elvis, women talking Avatar, and triangle

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Speaker 2: of sadness rounded out. So Colin, what are we doing

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Speaker 2: for best picture?

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Speaker 3: Amazing to me how far the Fablements has fallen, because

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Speaker 3: I think six months ago they were the favorite in

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Speaker 3: this and then everything everywhere, all at once, just took

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Speaker 3: over the market. And we're not just talking the best picture,

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Speaker 3: We're talking a lot of categories. Everything everywhere, all at

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Speaker 3: once took over. And I think the fable ones were

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Speaker 3: minus one twenty about six months ago, and it's funny

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Speaker 3: how far that they have fallen down. So for me

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Speaker 3: with this, you know, everything everywhere all at once minus

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Speaker 3: you know whatever, minus seven hundred. It's probably gonna steam

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Speaker 3: on game day when we get to the Oscars day.

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Speaker 3: But what everybody needs to realize is that ninety seven

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Speaker 3: percent of the experts and editors make this the number

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Speaker 3: one film. And remember how the Oscar voting happens. You

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Speaker 3: listed one, two, three, you get points for where you

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Speaker 3: fall in these ballots. And when I say ninety seven

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Speaker 3: percent of experts and editors picked this as the number

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Speaker 3: one picture, Chris, I couldn't find anybody that put it

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Speaker 3: lower than two. The people that didn't pick this as

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Speaker 3: the number one film picked it as number two. So

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Speaker 3: to me, this is the cheapest buy on the board

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Speaker 3: minus seven hundred. Please, it's an easy buy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's undervalue to Cornett. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: for everyone listening. When we say experts and editors, we're

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Speaker 2: talking about our friends atgold Derby dot com. Essentially kind of,

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Speaker 2: I would look at them as the sharps of award

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Speaker 2: show races. You know, they have a bunch of editors

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Speaker 2: and experts, and when you look at them, and I've

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Speaker 2: been follow kind of tracking their success since they started

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Speaker 2: tracking in twenty eleven, and you know, kind of to

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Speaker 2: your point, you know, even if they don't get every

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Speaker 2: category right, anyone who voting for them, like, you know,

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Speaker 2: as long as a film gets one vote, it's in

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Speaker 2: the running. There's usually not a film where no experts

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Speaker 2: or no editor picked that goes on to winning a category.

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Speaker 2: So you know, to your point here, I think everything

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Speaker 2: everywhere is in a good spot. And I will say this.

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Speaker 2: You know, you know Bafta, the winner was all quiet

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Speaker 2: on the western front, right. Well, the BAFTA winner for

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Speaker 2: Best Film has lost the last eight Oscar Best Pictures,

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Speaker 2: which is so you can essentially cross all quiet out.

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Speaker 2: I would say this, you know, that's an ugly number.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people aren't gonna want to weigh, you know,

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Speaker 2: seven hundred probably a thousand to win one hundred. I

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Speaker 2: would say, the only upset contender in my opinion, and

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Speaker 2: I've watched I've watched everything every I've watched pretty much

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Speaker 2: all these movies on this list. The only one I

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Speaker 2: would say is Man Cheese of in Asher and it's

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Speaker 2: still so low. But that was just Banshe's I think

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Speaker 2: was just a really great movie. Kind of matched it

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Speaker 2: in every in a lot of different categories, but everywhere,

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Speaker 2: everything all at once, they're just more movie, right, Like

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Speaker 2: it was just longer. Yeah, you know there was more

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Speaker 2: special effects and more editing boxes right, all the boxes right.

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Speaker 3: And I agree with you that that is the contender here,

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Speaker 3: But does it get enough second place votes to even

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Speaker 3: try to chip away at what the price is here?

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Speaker 3: To me, Raymond, when you look at the fact that

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Speaker 3: the editors and the experts are all over this, and

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Speaker 3: the fact that it's not falling below two, I would

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Speaker 3: buy this to minus thirty two hundred. That's what I

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Speaker 3: priced it at for Best Picture. And you know what,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna put a lot of money in this, And

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Speaker 3: like Bong June Ho said, I'm gonna drink a lot

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Speaker 3: of beer. I'm gonna cash just take up a drink

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Speaker 3: a lot of beer. Tonight after he won for Parasite

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Speaker 3: Best Picture, Best Director.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of Best Director, let's go right into the Best

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Speaker 2: Director nominees for this year, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Shiner

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Speaker 2: for Everything Everywhere, All at Once, minus eighteen hundred. Spielberg

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Speaker 2: is at plus eight fifty. You know, he's the second place.

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Speaker 2: Then you have tar and ban Cheese and Triangle of Sadness.

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Speaker 2: Huge long shots here, but I know you're kind of

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Speaker 2: tempted by Spielberg's I'm talking about him, I am.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm calling it the two Daniels, right, So

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Speaker 3: if you go by the experts, the two Daniels should

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Speaker 3: be about minus three hundred and Spielberg should be plus

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Speaker 3: three hundred. If you go by the experts and you

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Speaker 3: go by the editors over at gold Derby, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of love for the two Daniels, but not enough

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Speaker 3: to justify the price that's in the market right now.

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Speaker 3: Right now, you should be getting Spielberg up to plus

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Speaker 3: three hundred. And that is the play for me. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's tough to sway from the director's guild. Sam Mendez

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Speaker 3: one director's guild and then lost Bob june Hoe in

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. That was parasite versus nineteen seventeen. Hopefully there's

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Speaker 3: no Yorgos esteem here that we had, you know, But

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Speaker 3: right now, Spielberg to me has value to three to one.

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Speaker 3: And the reason I want to take an underdog here,

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Speaker 3: and the reason I want to go against the director's guild,

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Speaker 3: is because the name is Spielberg. If you're going to

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Speaker 3: take a dog and the name is Spielberg, it's actually

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Speaker 3: not a bad bet.

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Speaker 2: I actually disagree here, and that's because I just I

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Speaker 2: just don't think The Favormans was a good I think

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Speaker 2: the reason it started out hot and felled down was

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Speaker 2: because it wasn't a good movie. I think everyone was like,

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Speaker 2: whoa Steven Spielberg. He's making a movie about himself. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna be it's gonna be great, and then it just wasn't.

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Speaker 2: I just think this is a stay away for me.

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Speaker 3: It's not a huge like I didn't throw a whole

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Speaker 3: bunch of money down. I do have money on Spielberg.

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Speaker 3: It's a little wager and I would buy it to

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Speaker 3: three to one.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 3: After that, if it's you know, and I don't think

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Speaker 3: it's gonna seem either. Maybe because the weekend of the Oscars.

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Speaker 3: Spielberg gets the pub because of his name and all

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Speaker 3: of that in the category. But I would just say

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Speaker 3: this is a small bet, Spielberg to three to one.

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Speaker 2: That's the price point, all right. Best Actress. The nominees

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Speaker 2: are Michelle Yo from Everything Everywhere All at Once is

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Speaker 2: the favorite minus one twenty five, got Kate Blanchette from

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Speaker 2: Tar minus one fifteen, so they're kind of co favorites

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Speaker 2: here at least on fandel and then Andrea Riseboro from

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Speaker 2: to Leslie, Michelle Williams from The Fableman's and Aady Armists

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Speaker 2: from Blonde are all twenty five to one or greater,

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Speaker 2: So big long shots there. I think it's a two

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Speaker 2: woman race here with Michelle and Kate. What do you think? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this one's tough.

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Speaker 3: Now let me get my personal stuff out in the

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Speaker 3: open here and set it aside, because I am emotionally

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Speaker 3: attached to Benjamin Button and Kate Blanchett is. If she

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Speaker 3: wins her third Oscar here, I'm not gonna be surprised.

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Speaker 3: I love her, I love everything she does, and I

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Speaker 3: saw Tar. I actually like Tar. It doesn't fall in

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Speaker 3: any category that is Colin Wilson. I still love the movie,

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Speaker 3: but I'm going to set all of that aside because

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Speaker 3: you have to look at what the category of best

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Speaker 3: Actress is. The rule play a historical character. Jessica Chastain

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Speaker 3: one as Tammy fay Baker Rene Zellwigger, but she played

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Speaker 3: Judy Garland and Olivia Coleman, you know, Queen Anne. I

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Speaker 3: mean it was a big upset over Glenn Close. Right,

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Speaker 3: historical characters matter here. Nine of twenty four experts took

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Speaker 3: Kate Blanchett over Michelle Yeo. Two of thirteen editors took

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Speaker 3: Kate Blanchett over Michelle y'ao. This is Blanchett's eighth nomination

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Speaker 3: for Academy Awards. Saying all that, I think Michelle Yao

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Speaker 3: survives all the steam. I need plus one sixty to

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Speaker 3: buy Kate Blanchett. I can't do it at the current

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Speaker 3: market price. I would buy Michelleyao up to minus one sixty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love Kate in Tar. I actually think Kate

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Speaker 2: might probably just straight up you know who is the best.

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Speaker 2: Who had the best performance? Probably Kate because she carried

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Speaker 2: the movie, whereas like in everything, every yeah we're going

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Speaker 2: to get there. Yeah, she didn't. She didn't have to,

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Speaker 2: and it's not it's not a knock on her though,

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Speaker 2: like she didn't. She was great and she had a

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Speaker 2: lot of like her emotional scenes I think were like

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Speaker 2: even the facial expressions she made. I thought, we're really great.

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Speaker 2: But I look at the two odds and they're essentially

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Speaker 2: being treated them being treated as co favorite. So at

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Speaker 2: this point, I think you go where the value is right,

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Speaker 2: Like I think there it is a toss up. But

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Speaker 2: you look at gold Derby. Again, we we do trust

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Speaker 2: and they have a track record of success since they

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Speaker 2: started tracking seventy three percent of the winners in this category.

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Speaker 2: We're ranked number one by the editors and experts. That's

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Speaker 2: Michelle Yo. So you know, you also look at this

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Speaker 2: year Michelle Yo sixty eight percent, eighty five percent, sixty

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Speaker 2: eight percent experts, eighty five percent editors. You know, even

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Speaker 2: at sixty eight percent, the implied odds about would be

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Speaker 2: about minus two thirteen, and she's still minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: So I do think it's a toss up. But when

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Speaker 2: you're betting, you're looking for value, right, You're not gonna

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Speaker 2: win every bet all the time. As long as you

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Speaker 2: make good value bets you're gonna profit over the long term.

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Speaker 2: So in this one, I'm going as much as I

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Speaker 2: love Kate, I'm going with Michelle here at these odds,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, I think you play them up to you know,

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Speaker 2: anything under minus two hundred. Given what we're seeing from

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Speaker 2: from the industry experts, I think it is fair for Michelle.

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Speaker 2: But I thought Kate would actually be a bigger underdog.

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Speaker 2: But the thing was, she did win. You know, she

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Speaker 2: won at the Golden Robe in one of the categories

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Speaker 2: they split with, and then she won the basket and

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Speaker 2: the critics choice, so you know, it is kind of

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Speaker 2: she She's definitely in the running, you know, like she

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Speaker 2: has a lot of persons.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, So I think price point, price point is important, right,

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Speaker 3: So taking Michelle Michelle Oh at minus one twenty five,

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Speaker 3: I'm locking that in right now as we're recording this pot.

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Speaker 3: Actually I bought her six months ago when she was

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Speaker 3: plus buddy. But Kate Blanchett. The price point for me

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Speaker 3: at Kate Blanchett is plus one sixty. So if we

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Speaker 3: see some steam, I'm Michelle Yoh and Kate Blanchett falls

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Speaker 3: a little bit, That's when I'm gonna buy Kate Blanchett'

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Speaker 3: plus one sixty.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to best Actor. We got the

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Speaker 2: nominees for Best Actor. Here Brendan Fraser at minus one eighty. Whoa,

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Speaker 2: that's the rail what a performance? Go ahead, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: Austin Austin Butler from Elvis at plus one twenty, Colin

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Speaker 2: Farrell from the band She's avent a Sharon at fourteen one,

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Speaker 2: and then Paul mescal from Aftersun and Bill Ny from Living,

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Speaker 2: both big, big long shots. Here. What do you like?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's go full disclosure here. I saw the

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Speaker 3: whale this second that it came out. And listen. If

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Speaker 3: you're listening to this, it's oscars, it's spoilers if you

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Speaker 3: haven't seen the movie. This scene of his binge eating

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Speaker 3: at the fridge, I immediately said, this is an Oscar

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Speaker 3: winning performance for Brendan Fraser. I have never seen anything

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Speaker 3: like that on camera. As a person whose wife watches

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Speaker 3: six hundred pound life, this is something that needs to

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Speaker 3: be talked about, needs to be discussed about mental health,

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Speaker 3: about the reason people get the way that they are

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Speaker 3: in the whale. With Brnan Fraser, I was so submerged

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Speaker 3: into this performance. I immediately bet it months ago. Then

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Speaker 3: I started to realize this isn't that this should not

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Speaker 3: be the favorite. The favorite in this should be Elvis

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Speaker 3: by far. It's not even close. So if you look

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Speaker 3: at the gold Be editors, right, they've got Austin Butler,

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Speaker 3: nine of them, of the thirteen Fraser, they've got four

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Speaker 3: of the thirteen experts they I mean they love twelve

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Speaker 3: twelve for the Elvis performance, nine for Brendan Fraser, three

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Speaker 3: for call On Farrell for the Banshees. A British actor

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Speaker 3: in a British produced film with a BAFTA is the

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Speaker 3: template for this. This is how you and I Raybaond

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Speaker 3: cashed Anthony Hopkins, right, Anthony Hopkins seven to one. You

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Speaker 3: and I made big money. They cut the Oscar Show

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Speaker 3: off and it just went off the air. You know,

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Speaker 3: they didn't even I mean, it's just like Anthony Hopkins

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Speaker 3: isn't here, here's the award. The show's over, right, So

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Speaker 3: the template is British actor, British produced BAFTA is the template.

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Speaker 3: But you know, so does the banchies fit that it

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Speaker 3: was UK produced?

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Speaker 2: But I mean it's an Ireland movie.

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Speaker 3: A problem is the baft has went for Austin Butler,

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Speaker 3: and that's where everything started steaming in. The BAFT has

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Speaker 3: got Austin Butler for Elvis A twenty four is the

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Speaker 3: is an American production company. Brendan Fraser is from Indiana,

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Speaker 3: so there's none of this British influence going on with

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Speaker 3: Best Actor going on here. And by the way, Brenda

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Speaker 3: Fraser is not Estonian. He is American. He's from Indiana.

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Speaker 3: He's not the Encino man. You don't think he's not

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Speaker 3: from Estonia. But listen, experts give Butler a fifty percent shot.

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Speaker 3: You add in the fact that the editors it's a

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Speaker 3: fifty six percent shot. The pick is Austin Butler. Anything

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Speaker 3: that's plus money, you are. I'm hammering this to minus

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Speaker 3: one twenty five. I have been limited. I have been

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Speaker 3: This is my biggest wager of the entire podcast, is

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Speaker 3: Austin Butler to win Best Actor for Elvis.

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Speaker 2: I will keep.

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Speaker 3: Pounding this till it's minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of my favorite bets on the

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Speaker 2: board as well, with Austin Butler. He is plus one

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Speaker 2: twenty at Fandel and I agree he should be the favorite.

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Speaker 2: It won't be on Sunday he won't be all be

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Speaker 2: He should be the favorite. He won the Golden Globe

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Speaker 2: and a bath. The Fraser did get the critics choice

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Speaker 2: and the sag. But again, you have at gold Derby

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Speaker 2: and they're you know, the experts and editors are in

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Speaker 2: favor of Butler of you know, eighty one percent at

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Speaker 2: the time that number one gold Derby choice wins and

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Speaker 2: the only other you know, the other two times. The

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Speaker 2: other times it's been the number two guy. So I

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Speaker 2: think Farrell, even though you know, I thought he was

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Speaker 2: really good in Banshees, I don't think he's going to

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Speaker 2: uh to take that one home. So I think Butler

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Speaker 2: should be a decent favorite here, probably about sixty to

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Speaker 2: seventy percent favorite, probably two out of every three times

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Speaker 2: I would say he wins. So I'd probably go even

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Speaker 2: higher than than the minus one twenty five. I probably

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Speaker 2: go again in any one of those if you're if

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Speaker 2: you're under minus two hundred, I'd be fine with it.

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Speaker 2: I think I also think there's a little bit of

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Speaker 2: controversy working against Fraser, you know, you know, rocking the

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Speaker 2: fat suit. There were some suit yeah they were, and

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Speaker 2: they were saying, hey, why didn't why didn't you guys

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Speaker 2: just give the role to a more overweight actor, you know, rather,

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Speaker 2: you know, so there's there were just a lot of uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, kind of.

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Speaker 3: Know why, you know why, because no overweight actor has

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Speaker 3: Brendan Fraser's.

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Speaker 2: Boy exactly exactly.

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Speaker 3: Yea, he reads when he reads his daughter's poetry and

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Speaker 3: her work. It's just Brendan Fraser's voice was so mesmerizing.

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Speaker 3: And that's why I bet it immediately. But I am

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Speaker 3: saying right now that I've seen the experts, the editors,

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Speaker 3: Butler is an underdog. He shouldn't be an underdog. Don't

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Speaker 3: get wrapped up in the fact. And for You're right,

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Speaker 3: Fraser is getting a lot of hate from people in

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Speaker 3: the industry because of the fat suit, which is terrible.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we and we have the fact that I mean

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Speaker 2: just kind of wittle things I think also kind of

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Speaker 2: break toward Butler, like you know, Fraser essentially, and this

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Speaker 2: is you know, you could kind of look at it

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Speaker 2: both ways. But he was in the same spot the

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Speaker 2: whole entire movie for for more or less except a

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Speaker 2: couple of times. A couple of times, and then Butler

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Speaker 2: actually did some of his singing in the Elvis movie,

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Speaker 2: not all of it, but he did. He did do

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Speaker 2: some and they kind of mixed with the old Elvis vocals.

333
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Speaker 2: But I think that, you know, you know that he

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Speaker 2: was kind of doing some of his own performative, you

335
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Speaker 2: know stuff in that movie. I think I should get him,

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Speaker 2: get him. That was Actually it's it's been a big

337
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Speaker 2: deal in the past. It's been a big deal.

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Speaker 3: When you sing your own music in the past, and

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Speaker 3: if you don't sing your own music, it's it's gone

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Speaker 3: against you. So you know, don't get me started on

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Speaker 3: Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga.

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Speaker 2: I still have some tickets out.

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Speaker 3: There that didn't win getting that movie to the to

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Speaker 3: the to the counter.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, singing your own stuff, big deal. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's go to Best Original Screenplay. The nominees are everything Everywhere,

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Speaker 2: all at once at minus one fifty Banchees of Vina

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Speaker 2: Sharon at even money, which is just plus one hundred

349
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Speaker 2: or one, you know, one to one. The Fableman's Tar

350
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Speaker 2: and Triangle of Sadness round out the nominees. All of

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Speaker 2: them are twenty three to one or more. So this

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Speaker 2: is another two film race, and I'm curious to get

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Speaker 2: your thoughts on this because I have I have, I

354
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Speaker 2: have a thought as to how I think this is

355
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Speaker 2: going to go. But but I think both of them

356
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Speaker 2: are worthy. But what are your thoughts on which one

357
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 2: you do like more? Which one you think is gonna win? Yeah?

358
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Speaker 3: I think everything, every everything, everything, everywhere, all at once

359
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 3: is going to win. But I've loaded all my money

360
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Speaker 3: into Best Picture, and I think, but I think you

361
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 3: need to kind of sort it out for everybody. If

362
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:15,800
Speaker 3: you love that movie to win Best Picture, do you

363
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Speaker 3: hedge a little bit and put some of that money

364
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 3: here because the price is better? What is the better

365
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 3: I mean, gamble, what is the better investment. I'm not

366
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Speaker 3: here to lose tickets. I'm not here just to generally gamble.

367
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Speaker 3: I want to know what's the best value and it

368
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Speaker 3: minus one fifty if it's gonna win Best Picture, which

369
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Speaker 3: you and I have already decided that it is. Should

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00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 3: I be putting money into this Let's say I got

371
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,199
Speaker 3: a hundred dollars. Should we be putting fifty into this

372
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Speaker 3: category and fifty into you know, Best Picture? You let

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00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 3: me know, because that's where I struggled with this. Right,

374
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Speaker 3: is this the price point I want to buy? Or

375
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Speaker 3: is it Best Picture. That's where I was.

376
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Speaker 2: I think you can. I think if you really like

377
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 2: this movie, and this is this is why I struggle

378
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 2: with this, and I think I'm going I think I

379
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 2: go Banchi's here number one. I think Banchie is if

380
00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 2: there's anywhere where it does beat everything everywhere, because I

381
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 2: do think they're they're They're a lot closer than maybe

382
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 2: odds would say. But I do think the Banshee Screenplayer

383
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 2: is just amazing. It was just so simple but yet

384
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 2: so like profound and just it was just it was

385
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 2: perfect like so. But but that being said, the fact

386
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 2: that you know, as for for as many nominations and

387
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 2: as much momentum as everything everywhere all at once has

388
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 2: for it to still just be minus one fifty, uh,

389
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 2: you know, to win this award kind of tells you that,

390
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 2: you know, it's not really like this might be one

391
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 2: of the ones where they try to recognize another film.

392
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 2: And when I look at Banshee's, I don't know where

393
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 2: else it's gonna win. But I think it's the second

394
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 2: best movie of the year, and so I think I

395
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 2: think just knowing how like they like, like you said,

396
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 2: most people aren't putting everything everywhere below two on that

397
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 2: on their exactly both. So I think this might be

398
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 2: one where they say kind of like me, I'm like, hey,

399
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 2: it could be either one. Let's give Banshees it here,

400
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 2: you know, because it's probably not gonna get recognized anywhere else,

401
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: and we do want it to get recognized. And also,

402
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 2: you know, the gold Derby experts their number one choice

403
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 2: ninety one percent of the time it is one that's

404
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 2: Banchee's sixty four percent to thirty eight percent, gold Derby

405
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 2: experts are saying Banche's. So I'm gonna I'm gonna roll

406
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 2: with them and I'll take ban Che's, you know, anything

407
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: up to about minus one's fifty. I think Banchie should

408
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 2: be the favorite. I'm rolling with the experts here, and

409
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 2: I just think screenplay wise only, I think that's where

410
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 2: Banchie's really really excelled. So I do and and and

411
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 2: and that also kind of again it goes into, you know,

412
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 2: the best picture thing, because I again, I really think

413
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 2: Banchie's is the second field, and I don't think it

414
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 2: I don't really think it has a great chance anyone.

415
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 2: And I think the odds in this case, like you said,

416
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 2: are just kind of telling us something like it's like

417
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 2: it's for as much love as everything everywhere is getting

418
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,360
Speaker 2: for it to just be minus fifty, that's a tell.

419
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like, I like Banchees here, uh, and

420
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 2: that you still agree with money.

421
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: You still agree with me that for best picture, though,

422
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 3: the money goes into everything everywhere right here is where

423
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:13,360
Speaker 3: you take a chance.

424
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 2: Yes if you're yeah, yeah, exactly, because because ban Cheese

425
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: is number two in both, I think this one is

426
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: a much more like we win, you know, than than

427
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,919
Speaker 2: than best picture, you know, best picture. Everything everywhere is

428
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: so strong across the board that it would be hard

429
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 2: to lose it, even though I think banchees can you know,

430
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 2: there's none really you can knock with Banshees. It's just

431
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 2: it was there was just less of it. It would just shorter, meve,

432
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: I think it was under two hours, you know. It's

433
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: just it's just one of those kind of things. But

434
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 2: screenplay wise, I mean I made sure to watch all

435
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,199
Speaker 2: these where I could, with the with subtitles on if

436
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: I if I stream them, and so I'm looking at

437
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: the screenplays for that exact reason, and like ban Chees

438
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: is just great, man, I mean, just you know, you

439
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 2: always call them saying like I just don't like you anymore,

440
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 2: like you know, like.

441
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 3: Trust me as a guy that watches Christopher nolan movies

442
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 3: three dozen times. Subtitles are so important into the votes here,

443
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 3: and like understanding we're a movie what the director is

444
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 3: trying to get across from the words that he was given. So,

445
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 3: uh yeah, I agree with you. Banche's I like this here.

446
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: Let's take a shot.

447
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 2: So Banche's at quest one hundred. All right, we got

448
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 2: Best adapt the Screenplay. Up next, the nominees, Women Talking

449
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,959
Speaker 2: minus two forty is the front runner. All Quiet on

450
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 2: the Western Front. It's plus one fifty five. Glass Onion,

451
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: Top Gun, Maverick, and Living are all long shots at

452
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: twenty three one, twenty nine, thirty four to one, respectively.

453
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 2: What do you think about this category?

454
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 3: Well, I want to step out and we're going to

455
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: talk about this later in the pod. I want to

456
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 3: step out of the mold, the template, the blueprint, the stats,

457
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 3: the editors, the experts and everywhere, and I just want

458
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: to say, when is Tom Cruise's movie going to get

459
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: in an award? When is he When is when is

460
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: that going to get their actlades? When are they going

461
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 3: to be talked about where in this show are are

462
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: they going? This movie was pushed off for COVID reasons,

463
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 3: and then it finally comes out and the goddamn movie's excellent.

464
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 3: The movie is excellent. We're flying with Goose's kid. We're

465
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 3: taking down super planes that are like you know what

466
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 3: I mean, I cat and he survives. Maverick survives and

467
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 3: Goose's kid saves him, and then they're f fifteen. It's

468
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: nineteen eighty five, and holy shit, we're back on the

469
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: beach playing football again.

470
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 2: This is the best. And Jennifer Connelly's in it.

471
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 3: For all of us that love Jennifer Conley growing up,

472
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 3: Jennifer Conley's in it.

473
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 2: Tom Cruise is in it.

474
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: This is a great movie. So the question is is

475
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 3: when do I get my money in? I think there's

476
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 3: another spot. We'll talk about it later. Little money, twenty

477
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 3: five dollars, thirty five dollars, no more than fifty dollars, give.

478
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 2: Me twenty nine to one. I'm Maverick Ooh yeah, man,

479
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 2: I mean there is another category. I do think Top

480
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 2: Guy's moving in. I was. I was surprised how good

481
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 2: it was. I mean, what is that thirty six years

482
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: between the first one. It was very good. The Tom

483
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 2: Cruse football seat the worst see in the movie. But

484
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 2: it's dead. It's gotta win somewhere. Chris is dead. I

485
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 2: think I think it's gonna give best sound. I think

486
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 2: it's gonna give best sound. You know for this this one.

487
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: The only reason I don't I don't hate you for

488
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: for going with a long shot is because you know,

489
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 2: Women Talking is the favorite. The oscars are mostly still

490
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: still skew met male heavy, right, Yes, I just wonder

491
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 2: if this is another one of those movies that could

492
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 2: get lost and and maybe get beat out. You know,

493
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 2: as I was watching it, I thought the screenplay was

494
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: pretty good. But it's interesting because when you look at

495
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 2: the you know, like the writers Guild all Quiet on

496
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 2: the Western Front, which is his biggest competitor, it wasn't eligible.

497
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 2: So Women Talking one of the Writers Guild. U it

498
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: won at the critics Choice after one of the Quiet Yeah. Yeah, right.

499
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 2: So it's really like when you look at the Gold Derby,

500
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: editors are at fifty experts are at fifty six percent.

501
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,400
Speaker 2: Editors are at fifty four percent. So what that tells

502
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: us is that it should be a favorite, but it

503
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 2: should be more like a minus one twenty five favorite,

504
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 2: not not a you know, minus two forty favorite. So

505
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: this category we could see an upset. All Quiet is

506
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: also kind of overvalued just based on this. So I

507
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 2: don't hate I don't hate you for taking a top gun.

508
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 2: There is a couple of editors and or an expert

509
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: and editor on gold Derby that that's that is picking

510
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 2: top gun. So I think if you are going to

511
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: go off the board, that's the movie.

512
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 3: We haven't said this yet, and we've talked about we

513
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 3: talked about this is our fourth time we've done the

514
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 3: Academy Awards podcast. We talked about the voter base increasing

515
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 3: from seven thousand nine thousand, and they want to be

516
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 3: all inclusive. They want the show to be more of everything,

517
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 3: which thanks to a fresh Prince of bel Air, we

518
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 3: got a lot of everything last year. But what I'm

519
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 3: saying is is there is a group of people in

520
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 3: this voting base of nine thousand plus that's going to

521
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 3: vote women talking.

522
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 2: No matter what. And then you have to where are

523
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 2: the neutral votes going to fall? Right?

524
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 3: Are they going to go glass onion? Are they going

525
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 3: to go all quiet? They're not going to go with

526
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: the British movie. This voting base is not going to

527
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 3: go with the British movie, which wasn't you know it

528
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 3: was ineligible. Where are the neutral votes going to fall

529
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 3: because a guy's guy is going to vote for top Gun. Yeah,

530
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 3: the women talking base is going to vote for women talking.

531
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: So now you have to ask about the neutral vote.

532
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 3: And this is still a male voting base big time.

533
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 3: And I think this is a good a good place

534
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 3: to take a big underdog. And I think Top Gun

535
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 3: somewhere somewhere, there's little sprinkles of Top Gun everywhere.

536
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think Top Gun is the right long shot.

537
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: This is probably a stay away from me because again

538
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 2: I think women Talking takes it because we did have

539
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 2: of that movie well, a promising young woman I think

540
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 2: it was you Last Year of the Year before, kind

541
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: of a similar theme to that movie, and it did

542
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 2: one and it did win. It did win for screenplay,

543
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: not for it got upset an actress, but it did

544
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 2: win screenplay. So that does give me some hope for

545
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: women talking. I think it's likely, but I just think

546
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 2: you're paying too much for it. So yeah, I think

547
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 2: this is kind of like a women talking or like

548
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 2: a stay away or just go long shot here with

549
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 2: Top fun Best Supporting Actress the nominees and this one,

550
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 2: this one is wide open. So we got Andla Bassett

551
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: from Black Panther with Conda Forever at plus one thirties,

552
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 2: which automatically tells you there's not even a favorite better

553
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: than fifty to fifty. According to the books, Jamie Wee

554
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 2: Curtis from Everything Everywhere, All at Once is plus one

555
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 2: sixty five. Kerry Condon from The Banshees and The Sharon

556
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: is plus one seventy five. Then we got Hon Chow

557
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: and Stephanie Jou and there both four to one long shots.

558
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 2: Stephanie was actually like, she deserves better than this. I

559
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: thought she was really good, but she hasn't been get

560
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 2: in love in this cycle. But so I think it's

561
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 2: a three three women race that looks like anyway. Bassett, Curtis, Condon,

562
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,479
Speaker 2: what are you thinking? Well, let me just get this

563
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 2: out of the way.

564
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 3: I'm in my mid forties, and if you're in your

565
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 3: mid forties, Jamie Lee Curtis was a really big deal

566
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 3: at twelve years old. I'll leave it at that in

567
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 3: this category Best Supporting Actress. What is the template for

568
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 3: betting upsets?

569
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 2: Happen here.

570
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 3: They happen a lot. You want to look for somebody

571
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 3: extremely young, or you want somebody over sixty. That has

572
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: generally been the template over the years. Jamie Lee Curtis

573
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: won the Sag Kerrie Condon Bafta. If those two aligned,

574
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 3: it's a winner. But that's not what happened. The BAFTAs

575
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: and the SAgs went in different directions.

576
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: Editor.

577
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 3: You know Condon, if you look at the Gold Deerby,

578
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 3: like we go to the Gold Derby and we look

579
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 3: at the number of votes right and from an editor perspective,

580
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 3: Condon had seven versus Angela Bassett's four versus Jamielee Curtis two.

581
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: We can't bet Jamie Lee Curtis. If you look at

582
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 3: the experts, Angela Bassett Hi thirteen votes versus Condon seven,

583
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: Jamie Lee Curtis down at four. Damn experts, Editors. You

584
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 3: put it together, they have Angela Bassett and at forty

585
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 3: six percent to me, that's a minus one seventeen Condon

586
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent, that's a plus one sixty five. So

587
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 3: at plus two hundred, I'm betting Condon. I'm betting it

588
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 3: down to plus one sixty that's going to be my

589
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 3: pick for Best Supporting Actors.

590
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 2: So I actually like I went back and forth, done

591
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: this a lot. Yeah, I'm back at Bassett and here's

592
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 2: here's why. Wait a minute, wait a minute.

593
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 3: Can we talk about the Marvel perspective, like, this is

594
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: the first time Ahor from Marvel has been nominated. Yeah,

595
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: and there are people like Martin Scorsese that hate Marvel movies.

596
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 3: And there's in the industry We've talked about this year's past, Netflix,

597
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 3: Apple TV. Is there a bias against them because of

598
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 3: what they are? They're killing the industry? Martin Scorsese says

599
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: that movies are now theme.

600
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 2: Parks with Marvel movie.

601
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 3: This is the first time an actor from a Marvel

602
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 3: movie has been nominated.

603
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, it's definitely an impediment. And I think that's

604
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: why you're seeing I think that's why you're seeing the

605
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: plus one third. You know, she's not a favorite, even

606
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 2: though she like she's a favorite, but she's not even

607
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. But I think the fact that she

608
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 2: even got nominated tells you people are coming around. But

609
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 2: it is a tough one. The way I'm looking at

610
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: it from the numbers perspective, is that gold Derby eleven years.

611
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 2: They've been tracking this. While there's been upsets in the

612
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 2: general market, the gold Derby number one has won every

613
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 2: single time, every single time. Now the issue is gold

614
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 2: Derby's never disagreed before this year. You know, they disagree

615
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 2: within the categories, but overall Bassett is number one. So like,

616
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 2: if you look at it from that perspective, combined odds,

617
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 2: gold Derby number one has never lost. That's still Bassett.

618
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 2: She's also getting fifty six percent of X, which experts

619
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 2: tend to be the most. They have the largest sample

620
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 2: size and editors about about three times as many experts

621
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: as there are editors two to three depending on who submits.

622
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm kind of back at Bassett and

623
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 2: the fact that I'm still getting plus money on on

624
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 2: the fun which is the favorite. I got asked because

625
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: I like Condon too. I would go to anything. I

626
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 2: would go to anything plus money with Bassetts, so like,

627
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 2: once it gets even money, I'm out, yep, Okay.

628
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 3: So I mean, because I think there's gonna be steam

629
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 3: on game day, so we need to set price points.

630
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: I did buy plus two hundred.

631
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 3: I see plus one seventy five at FanDuel I'm still

632
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 3: buying Condon to about plus one sixty and if there's

633
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 3: steam on Bassett, like I'm done. We're saying any plus money, right,

634
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 3: is that?

635
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 2: Is that back for me for Bassett? And then you

636
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: like yeah, yeah, and you like Condon up.

637
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: To plus one sixty Yeah, okay, plus one So there's

638
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 3: a little bit, a little bit fifteen cents I'd buy

639
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 3: right now.

640
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. And this is kind of the point though, this one,

641
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 2: it's it is wide open, so it's it's kind of

642
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: depending on your betting style. It's one where you're probably

643
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: the most likely to lose because it's three, but there's

644
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 2: also this is also the one where you could profit

645
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: the most because everyone's a plus money. So again I'm

646
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: the gold Derby top choice is never lost. That's all

647
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 2: I'm going bass It's hard for me to choose at

648
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: Marble though, you're going to get on the market train. Though.

649
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: In terms of the performances, I mean, I thought it's

650
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,959
Speaker 2: it's close. It's just everywhere is close enough for me.

651
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 3: I thought Hang Chow was out of all the performances.

652
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 3: I thought her supporting Brandon Fraser in the Whale was

653
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 3: a great performance for her.

654
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 2: I mean, she was sassy.

655
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 3: She's I mean, she is the only reason that he

656
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 3: has the food that like. And I'm sad for me

657
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 3: to see her at thirty four to one because without

658
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 3: her that movie doesn't happen.

659
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I kind of feel the same way

660
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 2: about Stephanie Zu from everything everywhere. I really liked her

661
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: her in arrow of Jobu, and you know, she's she's

662
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 2: like a she's a she's a big on you. I mean, honestly,

663
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 2: I'll probably put a few bucks on Stephanie just because

664
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 2: so I just I get from an eye te perspective,

665
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: you know, and the fact that the movie has been

666
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 2: getting so much love. I don't hate it. But at

667
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: the same time, she has no precursors. So, like I said,

668
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 2: it's just there's a reason she's thirty four to one.

669
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: But let me tell you what you allowed me to

670
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: go of a long time on Maverick. I'm gonna throw

671
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 3: twenty five dollars on Stephanie here and we won't talk

672
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 3: about it again. We get our hopes up on actress

673
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 3: and we lose a big shot again.

674
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: I mean, it is one of those where you know,

675
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: to your point, there's could be a vote split here

676
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 2: where that it can create a lot of variants, so

677
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 2: you know that, just kind of keep that in mind,

678
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 2: all right. Supporting actor, we got Chief Week Kwan from

679
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 2: Everything Everywhere, all at once, Big Favorite minus two thousand,

680
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: Barry Coogan fourteen to one from Banchees of Inn Sharon,

681
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 2: Brendan Guison eighteen to one from Banchees of Inn Sharon,

682
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: and then jud hirsh and Brian Tyree, Henry Chaps Atlanta

683
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 2: loved that show. He's got it for Causeway, but he's

684
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 2: forty two to one and Hirsch thirty four to one.

685
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 2: They aren't gonna win. This is all about about Kihi Kwan,

686
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 2: right right, Like there's not much to say here. Yeah

687
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 2: that well, I will say a little bit something.

688
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 3: So the rule for best supporting actor is older actors,

689
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 3: lifetime achievements. You think last year with Coda, with Troy

690
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 3: Kuotzer and what he's did, and Cody, think Brad Pitt

691
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,240
Speaker 3: once upon a time, You think JK. Simmons with Whiplash,

692
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 3: Morgan Freeman and Tim Robbins won this and it wasn't Shawshank.

693
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 3: That's another thing that amazes me about this. Twenty three

694
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: of twenty four Gold Derby experts on Key Qui Kwan

695
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 3: and if you don't know that name, you do know him.

696
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 3: Like I said, I'm a male in my mid forties.

697
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 3: This is data from Goonies, and the second you hear

698
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: that voice and everything everywhere all at once, you recognize

699
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 3: it immediately as somebody that watched the Goonies. He is

700
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 3: the roadmap to this movie. He is the biggest part

701
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 3: of this movie. His performance is amazing. I am so

702
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 3: happy to see him turn to the screen. It gives

703
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,399
Speaker 3: you a level of comfort, It gives you a level

704
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 3: of warmth because you're familiar with this character, You're familiar

705
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 3: with this voice, and you trusted and this is a

706
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 3: home run pick. I think minus two thousand and short.

707
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 3: I think you're buying this up to minus five thousand

708
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 3: per the gold Derby experts and editors.

709
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: I doubt many people on this pot listening to this

710
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 2: are gonna actually bet at minus two thousand. But yeah,

711
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 2: he's winning this, He's winning. That's true. That is true.

712
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 2: This is the bet out of the top eight. I

713
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: would say this is probably the most short thing, even

714
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 2: more so than the best picture for Everything, every right,

715
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 2: I think this is the one. There's just there's just

716
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 2: so much separation here between between Klee Week, Kwon Uh

717
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: and everyone else. So that was the top eight. There

718
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 2: are obviously a bunch of other categories, and a lot

719
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 2: of times you do find the best values on some

720
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 2: of these categories that you know, people probably aren't betting

721
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 2: as much talking about as much. So I got a

722
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 2: few here. But the first one is for best Costume Design.

723
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 2: The nominees are Elvis is the front runner about minus

724
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 2: one sixty five Black Panthers in their running they're plus

725
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,839
Speaker 2: one eighty five everything everywhere at once it is five

726
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: to one. Uh. And then Missus Harris goes to Paris

727
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 2: and Babylon there they're big long shots, but I think

728
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 2: Elvis should be a bigger favorite here. I would bet

729
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,959
Speaker 2: Elvis to minus two thirty. The gold Derby expert number

730
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: one has won ten of eleven, or ninety one percent.

731
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: They that this is the the number one, and uh,

732
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: you know, seventy two percent of the of the experts

733
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 2: here and are going for Elvis, only twenty four percent

734
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: for Black Panther and four percent for Babylon. You know, Elvis.

735
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 2: It looks like Elvis to me, So I'm going I

736
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: like this is this is one where I'm betting. I'm

737
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 2: betting on the chalk, but I think the talk is undervalued,

738
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: and I.

739
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 3: Think that this is I think this is where if

740
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 3: you're not comfortable, maybe Austin Butler has steamed too much

741
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 3: in the best Actor category, maybe the this is where

742
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 3: you want to hedge and throw some money in. You

743
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: and I have talked about this before. This is our

744
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,280
Speaker 3: fourth annual podcast on the Oscars costume design and makeup.

745
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 3: They have their own award shows and that's why Elvis

746
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 3: is getting steamed is because they, you know, dominated in

747
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 3: the costume designs and the makeup, the government and all

748
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: that other. So this is, to me is a category

749
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 3: where I'm going to dip in if the best actor

750
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: odds fly on me on game day.

751
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: And you know, speaking of which makeup and airstyle. And

752
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 2: another one where I like the favorite Elvis minus one fifty,

753
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: the Whale is plus one ten, Batman, Black Panther, Wakan Forever,

754
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 2: and All Quiet on the Western Front are the long shots.

755
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 2: But my thinking on this one with Elvis here and

756
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 2: I'd bet it up to about anything under minus two hundred.

757
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 2: But you know, the way I was getting some love

758
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 2: here in this in this category, but look at the

759
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 2: precursors and it didn't really do much there. It's also

760
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 2: it's controversial right.

761
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 3: Again, yes, you know it's they win us with the

762
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 3: how do you win this with the fat suit?

763
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 2: Right right right exactly? And so I again I think Elvis,

764
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 2: you know, it's just like if this, if there was

765
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 2: a long shot, I think you could see Black Panther, Like,

766
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: I don't hate if you're if you're gonna take the

767
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 2: favorite in Elvis, if you maybe hedge a tiny bit

768
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 2: on Black Panther. But again, just kind of looking at

769
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 2: at all the data we have, it looks like it's

770
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 2: gonna come down to Elvis versus the Whale. But I

771
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 2: just again, I think the the industry is going to

772
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: be too split on the Whale. And I don't think

773
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 2: Black Panther or The Batman, you know, two kind of

774
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 2: comic book movies, they'll probably split the votes if you

775
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 2: don't want to vote for the top two, you know,

776
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 2: so it's really tough for me. I think Elvis it

777
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 2: might be a closer one than we think. But I

778
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 2: also think Elvis has like a really high floor uh

779
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 2: to win. To win this Award. So I'm going Elvis here.

780
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: I think the price minus it's about minus you know,

781
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 2: one p fifty. That's that's a that's a pretty solid

782
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 2: price here. Uh for for Elvis.

783
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 3: It's good to see the Batman get just even mentioned

784
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 3: on this pod after. You know, Robert Pattinson is one

785
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 3: of my he is a rising actor. Uh. Someday he

786
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: will be in this category and we will have a

787
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 3: very longest. I hope he doesn't go up against Adam Driver.

788
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 3: Shout out to Katie rich Creek, who we love. She's

789
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 3: a she and I are Adam Driver fans. I hope

790
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 3: that he doesn't go head to head with Robert Pattinson

791
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 3: at some point in the future.

792
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: So I got one more one more here, And this

793
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: is a long shot, right, And this is one where

794
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,839
Speaker 2: you've hit this before, you've hit these songs. I think

795
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: so so like and I've been wrong too so but

796
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: here I've learned from being wrong and this is why

797
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,360
Speaker 2: I'm picking this pick. So for Best Original Song, the

798
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 2: nominees are uh two to two at minus from from

799
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 2: the movie Are are are minus four thirty. So it's

800
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 2: big favorite here. It's one pretty much all the precursors.

801
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 2: We have lift me up from Black Panther, that's Rihanna,

802
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 2: Hold my hand from top Gun Maverick, that's Lady Gaga.

803
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 2: And then we have applause from tet like a woman,

804
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,479
Speaker 2: and this is a life from everything, everywhere, all at once.

805
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 2: Those are big long shots. With me up as plus

806
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 2: four thirty, hold my hand is plus seven fifty. So

807
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 2: those are like in the they're in the running, but

808
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 2: they're they're they're long shots, are just not massive long shots.

809
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 2: I think I think you gotta go with me up here.

810
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: The reason is I made the mistake of not betting

811
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 2: on Billie eilish uh and she she wasn't the gold

812
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 2: Derby favorite, but you know she ended up winning. I'm

813
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: just looking at this like I can't bet against Rihanna,

814
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: like you just you just all time I was there,

815
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: it was. It was dope. I was. I was there

816
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: in person, it was it was amazing. Great great game,

817
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 2: great great halftime show. This is like Rihanna's only like

818
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: song in like a long time. I'm not betting against

819
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 2: Rihanna here. The Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award

820
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 2: both went to the two to two, but only four

821
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 2: of the last eleven have won both of those awards.

822
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 2: So this is one where the precursors dope, necess aren't

823
00:40:56,120 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 2: necessarily super predictive. This is like an American Award show. Yep,

824
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: everyone knows Rihanna. I like, so I like Rihanna. It's

825
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: gonna be a long shot, you know, as far as price,

826
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: I'd probably go to, like, you know, three to one,

827
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: anything three to one are better. Yeah, I think it's

828
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 2: fine here for lifting me up, just because it's one

829
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 2: of those where it's right for upsets, and you're gonna

830
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: be kicking yourself if you didn't, if you looked at

831
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 2: this and just didn't bear Rihanna. So yeah, those are

832
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 2: the three I got. All Right, dat is going to

833
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 2: wrap it here for our fourth annual Oscars Betting preview

834
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 2: show here on the Action Network podcast presented by Spanduel.

835
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 2: So it's just quickly recap before we get out of here.

836
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 2: A our best bets.

837
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 3: What do you got called the two biggest ones that

838
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 3: I have the most money on by far, our best actor,

839
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 3: Austin Butler plus one twenty. I'm buying everything. I'm being limited,

840
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,479
Speaker 3: I'm being stopped. I will buy that at plus money

841
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 3: at any point. Once it becomes the favorite, probably on

842
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 3: Game Day, on the day of the Academy Awards, it's

843
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 3: probably gonna steam. So that's when I would stop buying

844
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 3: other than that Raybon we you know, I mentioned Top

845
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 3: Gun earlier in the earlier in the show for another category,

846
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 3: but you know, like minus eight hundred, minus six hundred

847
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 3: minus seven for Best Sound, I think that that is

848
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 3: an absolute lock, like farther than what the odds are.

849
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 3: That is an absolute winner right there, and it's not

850
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 3: being priced accordingly. So for me, Austome Butler, Best Actor,

851
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: Best Sound minus you know, minus eight hundred for top

852
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 3: Gun is not being priced correctly.

853
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 2: Those are my favorites for me. It's Butler as well,

854
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 2: all of the three I gave at the end. That's

855
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 2: costume design for Elvis, I would do that to about

856
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,439
Speaker 2: minus two thirty, makeup and hair for Elvis. I would

857
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: do that up to anything under minus two hundred and

858
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 2: best Song, Lift me up plus three hundred or better.

859
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 2: Can't fade, Can't fa Rihanna, Man, can cannot fade Rihanna.

860
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for us. Be sure to check

861
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 2: out our Oscars Best Bets episode. That'll be out Thursday

862
00:42:55,960 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: morning with even more betting picks from our Action Network

863
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 2: experts and Oscars fanatics, including Colin Whitchurch and Katie rich Creek.

864
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:09,919
Speaker 2: You can follow Colin on Twitter at Underscore Colin one

865
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 2: with two l's in Colin, and you can find me

866
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 2: at Chris Raybon. Until next time, let's get this sh

867
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 2: money all right, You've really made this a night to

868
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: remember in every way. Now let's go party till dawn.

869
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

870
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

871
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler