WEBVTT - Riding the Hype Cycle 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.800 Welcome to tex Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.400 Hey there, and welcome to tex Stuff. I'm your host, 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.480 Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.640 and I love all things tech. And there is an 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:26.960 increasing amount of conversation around the concept of the metaverse, 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:31.200 which is pretty amusing because there's no real definition of 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:36.000 what a metaverse is or will be. But generally speaking, 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:41.120 most versions I've seen revolve around some combination of virtual 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:45.960 reality or VR and augmented reality or a R implementations 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:50.600 that allow for a persistent and pervasive integration of digital 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:56.080 and physical realities. How's that for some consultant marketing speak. Now, 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:59.200 some versions lean way more on the VR side and 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.120 suggest that the next phase of the Internet will be 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:06.280 made up of virtual spaces and people roaming around as avatars. 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:07.960 By the way, that is an idea that has been 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:12.040 around for a long time, with folks kind of thinking 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.040 of this as a sort of web three point oh 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:18.400 for ages. Heck, you watch movies where people are accessing 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:22.560 the Internet, especially from like the nineties, like the late nineties, 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:26.839 and it almost always was envisioned as you know, navigating 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:30.960 through a virtual three dimensional space, even though that's not 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:35.560 how any of us really interface with the Internet, so 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:39.400 it's interesting that this still is is launching onto that idea. However, 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:42.520 what all of this has really reminded me of is 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.920 the concept of the hype cycle, which is not a 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:51.240 super enthusiastic two wheeled vehicle. It's, you know, kind of 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.480 a concept here. It's um the hype cycle, or more 0:01:54.520 --> 0:02:00.280 properly Gartner's hype cycle, because it's from the research company Gardner. 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.520 It's a way to describe the stages that a concept 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:10.040 or technology goes through from ideation, as in the first 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:13.240 announcement of the tech, not just the thinking of it, 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:17.400 but even just the expression of what attack might do, 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:22.440 all the way to actual realization and adoption. It's not 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:26.000 a straight path. In fact, it's got very curvy. If 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:29.520 you look at a graphic of the hype cycle, it's 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:33.120 almost always shown as a curve. It starts off low, 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:38.280 peaks up, slopes down, dramatically bottoms out, and then slowly 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:42.160 grows from there. That's that's how it always looks. So 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:47.680 it's a journey that includes diversions into overenthusiastic expectations and 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:50.800 some trips over into the mundane reality that tech can 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.680 settle into. But we're going to explore all those various 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:57.640 key moments shortly. First, let's learn a little bit about 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:02.519 where this came from. So back in a market analyst 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:07.000 named Jackie Fen created the hype cycle concept by observing 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:12.359 the typical phases that technologies tend to go through. Now, 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:15.040 to be clear, this has little to do with the 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.880 capabilities of the tech itself. I mean that does tie 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.720 into it, but it has more to do with the 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:24.200 general perception of the tech. So you can think of 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:28.280 it like buzz or excitement. And while there are a 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.480 lot of examples of tech going through these phases, it's 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:34.079 not exactly a law or anything like that. It's more 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:38.600 like these are trends that we see pop up frequently, right, 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:41.960 It's it's a pattern that we've seen repeat itself. So 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:47.120 there are five phases in the hype cycle. We start 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:51.040 off with what is called the technology trigger. This is 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.200 when a tech which can be hardware, or it could 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.360 be software, or it could be a service, it could 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:59.000 be any combination of those things. It just has to 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:03.000 be new. This is when it first launches in some way. 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.400 And by launches, I don't necessarily mean you actually get 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:10.600 a physical product that rolls out or an actual service 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:13.360 that you can subscribe to right at the get go. Instead, 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:18.000 there's some form of announcement. It might be a demonstration, 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:20.880 or it might be, you know, something similar along those 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:25.280 lines that alerts people that this technology exists. I think 0:04:25.320 --> 0:04:28.600 of the mother of all demos, uh, something that we 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:32.720 often hear about, where things like graphical user interfaces and 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:36.479 the first computer mouse were really shown off to you know, 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:40.000 a wider audience. That's sort of an example of a 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:43.400 technology trigger. If you want to think of something a 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:47.200 little more recent, although still in our past, think of 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:50.120 the old Apple press events where Steve Jobs would introduce 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:54.039 his one more Thing. It was typically something brand new 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:56.880 from Apple. Now, I should point out that an Apple's case, 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.960 we were mostly talking about technology that had already been 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:04.000 in some form of existence from other companies, and Apple 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.960 really just went in and refined it and made it, 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:10.640 you know, aesthetically pleasing, and we're able to market it properly. 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.920 But you know, this is an event that tells the world, hey, 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.200 we've got something neat over here and you should check 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:20.440 it out. Now. In these early stages, it's not unusual 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:24.000 for the creators of the technology to promote the heck 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.760 out of it, you know, hiring PR firms and marketing 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:30.960 firms to really push this out, even if that technology 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:35.359 has a very limited use case or doesn't actually work yet. So, 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:39.240 for example, you could argue eight K televisions are somewhere 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.080 in this phase right now because a K TVs have 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:46.719 been around for a bit, it's not like they're brand new. However, 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:51.040 there's not really any native eight K content you can 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.360 get on those TVs. So you've got televisions that are 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:59.840 technically capable of playing ultra ultra high definition video, but 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:04.040 you have a lack of actual video content that meets 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.679 that level of resolution. So you've got something that's able 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:09.880 to show you this incredible picture, you just don't have 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:12.719 any of the content that has that built into it. Now, 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:15.160 you could argue that eight K t V s are 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.200 actually a bit further along the hype cycle than where 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:20.880 I'm talking about right now, because most of them can 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:24.520 actually upscale lower definition video and boost it so it 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:28.000 looks better. Meanwhile, eight K t V s are marketed 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.800 toward home theater enthusiasts who like to get out their 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.839 set up with the most advanced tech available in the 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:37.359 space people who make way more money than I do. 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.800 In other words, typically the goal for creators at this 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:44.280 stage is to talk of the tech so that investors 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.039 become interested in it and they will start to pour 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.240 some money into the efforts to keep things going. So 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.919 this can be a really tense waiting game because you 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:57.360 need the cash to flow in to operate until a 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:00.839 market develops that can support the technology. But that also 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:02.920 means that you have to convince the investors that there 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:06.359 will be a market for the tech at some point, 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:09.840 even if there isn't one at that very moment. So 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:13.520 our starting point is the technology trigger. So if you imagine, 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.960 you know, a graph, and the X axis is marked 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.200 as time, So the further to the right you go, 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.240 the more time has passed, and the y axis is 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:24.960 marked in expectations. So the higher up on the y 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:28.840 axis you are, the higher expectations are for this tech. Well, 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:31.320 the tech trigger would be our starting point. It would 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:33.560 be at the beginning of our time axis, and it 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:37.120 wouldn't be very high up on expectations. From there, however, 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:41.360 we ramp up expectations dramatically in a relatively short amount 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:44.680 of time. This is where I would argue we are 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:49.160 in the metaverse conversation right now. We're thinking about possibilities 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:53.720 with companies like meta Slash Facebook really pushing this concept 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:57.720 super hard and investing huge amounts of money and dedicating 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:02.160 enormous teams toward developing stuff that people can actually use. 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:07.760 Along the way, we might see some early implementations of technology, 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:11.440 this particular tech, whether it's metaverse or something else. But 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:15.640 typically the implementations we see during this this early phase 0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:20.320 after the technology trigger, they're really limited, and if they're 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:25.520 actually available at all to consumers, they're really really expensive. 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:31.000 This is when bleeding edge early adopters might jump in, 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:34.199 and we've seen this with lots of tech over the years. 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:39.120 I remember when CD players first hit the market, compact discs, y'all, 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:43.160 I'm old. When compact disc players first hit the market, 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:47.400 they were prohibitively expensive for many people. I mean, they 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:51.480 were hundreds and hundreds of dollars, and keep in mind 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:54.640 that with inflation that would probably be more than a 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:57.559 thousand dollars today, so it was way too expensive for 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.679 people like yours. Truly. I remember I didn't get my 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.959 first CD player, which was actually a little portable CD 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.439 player until years after they had been on the market 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:11.120 because they were just too expensive. Now, without early adopters, 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:16.840 most technology, particularly hardware, wouldn't go anywhere, Investors would lose 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:19.480 confidence in the tech, and companies wouldn't be able to 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.800 scale up to produce stuff at a a scale where 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:26.240 they could bring prices down. Now, according to the Gartner 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:29.840 hype cycle, around the time early adopters start exploring tech 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:33.080 is when mass media really starts to pick up the 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:36.080 story and run with it and thus push the hype further. 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:39.840 Then we reached the top of this climb at you 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:42.880 know where the hype cycle calls it the peak of 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:47.720 inflated expectations. So this is like the top of the 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:51.400 first hill in your classic out and back roller coaster. 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.840 It's the highest point that you're ever going to hit. 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:57.680 And as the name suggests, this is when people have 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:02.959 the highest expectations for the tech will be able to do. Uh, 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.360 these are expectations that are likely not going to be 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.960 borne out by the technology itself. Now, I can think 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.520 of no better example of a tech that went through 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:16.160 this particular phase in a way that was incredibly apparent 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:20.079 than virtual reality. In fact, I could argue that it's 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:22.520 done this a couple of times now. But back in 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:26.839 the very late eighties early nineties, the early stages of 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:31.920 VR had the world anticipating an entirely new experience with computing. 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:37.120 We would all be immersed in computer virtual worlds, and 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:39.400 it's a narrative that we're seeing repeated today with the 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:42.840 metaverse discussions. And there was a lot of exciting R 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.440 and D in the field of VR at this time. 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:50.360 It's just that our technical capabilities were fairly primitive compared 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:53.840 to what people were imagining. We had movies and TV 0:10:53.960 --> 0:10:56.760 shows come out that centered on this premise of an 0:10:56.840 --> 0:11:01.559 unbelievably immersive virtual experience, one that in some cases would 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:05.160 literally pull you into a virtual world. And even this 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.480 idea was preceded by films like Tron, which came out 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:11.920 before the VR craze had even begun. But then folks 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:17.200 got a chance to actually experience VR for themselves. I 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:19.760 remember a VR arcade opened up in a mall not 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.640 too far from where I lived, and so I went 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:25.120 and paid I think it was like five bucks for 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:29.199 five minutes in order to experience it. The actual graphics 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:33.960 in the world were beyond primitive, everything consisted of very 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:38.760 simple polygons. I played a game called Dactyl Nightmare, infamous 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.520 in VR circles. This was way back in the day 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:46.320 like uh and Dactyl, by the way, means like like 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:52.199 Pterodactyl because there was a a quote unquote pterodactyl flying around, 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:54.559 a bunch of polygons flying around that could occasionally pick 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:57.440 you up and drop you. It was an interesting example 0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:01.559 of VR capabilities, but it was far from a sophisticated experience, 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.800 and I really recommend going on YouTube and searching videos 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:09.120 of it if you're interested. Just remember that it's an 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:13.120 experience that came out in n anyway. The point I'm 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.360 making is that the expectation of what VR would be 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.640 and the reality of what it was that was a 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:23.920 huge disconnect. As a result, people lost interest in VR 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:27.480 pretty quickly, and that loss of interest had a devastating 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:31.960 effect on the VR research industry. Organizations that had previously 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:37.359 enjoyed financial support found themselves scrounging for money. Some programs 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:40.520 had to shut down entirely as folks decided that their 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:44.560 money might be better spent on other pursuits, other investments. 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.840 The VR industry as a whole almost died. Some departments 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.880 that were exploring VRS use and stuff like medical treatments 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:56.280 were reduced to hacking together VR systems from video game 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.400 peripherals in order to make it work. Devices like the 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:03.920 Nintendo Power Glove or the PlayStation I or the Microsoft Connect. 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:08.559 We're all to varying degrees failures in the gaming space, 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:12.800 but the VR industry took those tools, altered them, and 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.400 made use of them. We'll explore more of the hype 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.199 cycle in just a moment, but first let's take this 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:31.200 quick break. So VR had entered the third phase of 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:35.400 the hype cycle. We were at the technology trigger, we 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.840 were at the peak of inflated expectations, and then we 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:42.920 start to enter the trough of disillusionment. I love the 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.600 names for these phases, by the way. It makes me 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:48.160 think of things like the Pit of Despair from The 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:52.040 Princess Bride. But yeah, the trough of disillusionment. So between 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.960 the peak of inflated expectations and the trough of disillusionment 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.920 is a decline that in most versions of the hype cycle. 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.280 It's just as steep as the climb up to the 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:07.080 peak of inflated expectations and almost as long like you 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:10.559 almost go down as far as when you first announced 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:14.840 the technology. UM. In most versions of this cycle, that's 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:19.160 not necessarily indicative of what every technology goes through, but 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:23.600 that's typically how it's how it's illustrated. UM. Along the 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.320 way between that peak and that trough, you start encountering 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.640 things like negative press as the media begins to criticize 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:35.000 the tech for not living up to expectations. Now, this 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.280 is rich and hypocritical, and I think most of the 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.720 press is not blind to the fact that the press 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:45.640 contributes to inflated expectations. Right. It's part of the press 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:49.960 covering the stuff that builds up the hype and enthusiasm, 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.200 and then that same press reaps the reward of throwing 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.040 shade at a technology once it fails to meet those 0:14:56.080 --> 0:15:00.760 heightened expectations. So, in other words, the press benefits on 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:04.000 both sides of this curve. And I mean that's typically 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.520 where the press does its best work, right in the 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.200 sense of where they get the most cash. They end 0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:11.880 up making a lot of getting a lot of attention 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:14.520 by hyping things up, and then a lot of attention 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.280 by tearing things down up And then once you get 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.000 past that, you know you're still gonna get coverage, but 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.840 it won't be nearly as sensational as that part of 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:25.680 the hype cycle. So this decline is also when you 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.480 start to see companies that had begun to pop up 0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:32.160 during the climb, you know, companies that were specializing either 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:36.720 in the technology or producing something that was tangential or 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.840 connected to that technology. You start to see the number 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:44.840 of companies decrease. There's the sort of fade away by 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.640 the number of players in the space. So there's also 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.040 a lot of consolidation in this stage as well, where 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:54.400 smaller companies will end up merging together because they wouldn't 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.280 be able to survive on their own. Sometimes they're not 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.640 able to survive even after they merge, and they still, 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:03.120 you know, they still fail. I'm reminded of the dot 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:06.600 com craze leading up to two thousand. I was also 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:08.840 those before. I was working at how Stuff Works, but 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:12.520 I was working at a consulting firm and a lot 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:17.400 of our our clients were in the dot com space. Well, 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.920 the during the heyday business was great, but then you 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:26.840 hit two thousand and two thousand one and things took 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:30.480 a dramatic turn. We saw so many web based companies 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:34.200 appear up to that point, a lot of which you know, 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:39.960 had tons of investments, like ludicrous amounts of venture capital 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.320 pouring into them, even when they had no real business 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:47.160 plan to support the organization. And then the market shifted 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.280 in two thousand and again in two thousand one, particularly 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:52.840 after the attacks on nine eleven, and a lot of 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.480 those companies weren't able to survive this shifting market, this 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.920 declining market, and the web as a whole kind of 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:04.560 entered the trough of disillusionment as people began to realize 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.399 that the gold rush days of the web really weren't 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:12.080 going to pay off, at least not at this crazy 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:17.000 return on investment that people had anticipated. Now typically around 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:19.760 the trough, only a small percentage of the text potential 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:24.440 customer base has actually adopted the technology, so we haven't 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.920 really gone beyond early adopters yet. We're talking less than 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:31.000 ten percent of the potential market, maybe less than five 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.840 of the potential market, even having bought into the tech 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:38.560 at this point. But on the flip side, when you 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.880 hit rock bottom, there's nowhere left to go but up, 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:45.159 unless you can't rebound at all, in which case you 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:49.560 go nowhere like you just stop existing. But let's talk 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:53.159 about the tech that manages to weather this storm in 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:56.119 the hype cycle. Now, around this time is when we 0:17:56.200 --> 0:18:00.000 typically start to see a new generation of products or 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:04.240 services based in and around this technology. So the first 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:09.399 generation will have taught folks what works, what doesn't work, 0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:13.800 and what could work better. So ideally the second generation 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:17.520 of products will be built upon that knowledge and address 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:20.080 the flaws and accentuate the things that made the tech 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.439 appealing in the first place, to make better versions. In 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:27.199 other words, So now we start to enter the fourth phase. 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:32.400 This is called the slope of enlightenment, or as I 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:36.520 typeoed in my notes, the slop of enlightenment, which just 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:40.240 sounds like something that pigs would really enjoy, very thoughtful pigs. 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:44.760 Now it's the slope of enlightenment. This is when people 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:48.840 actually figure out what the tech is good for. Now 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:52.920 it maybe that has uses that were never anticipated during 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:56.280 the initial hype phase of this technology, and that while 0:18:56.320 --> 0:19:00.200 the real tech can't live up to the grandiose promus 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:03.120 is of stuff that we heard about during the peak 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:06.680 of inflated expectations, the stuff it can do might still 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:10.679 be really compelling. Now that realization might come from the 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:14.240 creators of the tech themselves. It's actually possible that it's 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.040 what they had in mind the whole time, but the 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.399 hype got away from them, right. They might have said 0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:22.120 this will be very good for X, but during the 0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:26.639 hype phase, the early phase, it's promoted as X to 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.880 the tenth power times a billion, and that's not what 0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:34.800 the creators were ever claiming. That can happen sometimes the 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:38.760 realization actually comes from outside the creators, with folks figuring 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.560 out really cool uses of this technology that the creators 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:46.199 had never even really intended. Now, again, this makes me 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:49.919 think of the Microsoft Connect in that regard. So in 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:53.680 case you're not familiar with these, the Connect devices were 0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:56.880 peripherals for a couple of different Xbox consoles. There were 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:02.240 two main generations of the Microsoft Connect. They incorporated cameras, 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:06.600 including an infrared camera, and microphones that were meant to 0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:11.480 boost the interactive capabilities of an Xbox console. So the 0:20:11.520 --> 0:20:15.159 Connect could sense depth and it could create essentially a 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.960 three D map of a space, and that meant that 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:20.800 when the Connect was paired with the right software, it 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:24.800 could sense movement along three axes, the X, Y and 0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:28.760 Z ax s or if you prefer it could sense 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:32.159 movement left and right, up and down, and toward and 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:36.200 away from the camera. Now, the purpose of this peripheral 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:39.520 was to give game developers options to create new kinds 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.800 of games that would lean on those capabilities, like a 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:46.880 fighting game where your real world motions would be translated 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.639 into the game in some way. Or they could use 0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:53.320 it to create new ways to interact with the Xboxes 0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:56.600 user interface, so that you could do things like activate 0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:59.800 a game with your voice or by gesturing a certain way. 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:03.840 But what was cool was that the AI and robotics 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:07.199 fields began to use the connect in their projects. They 0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:09.600 began to hack the connect and make use of it. 0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:14.040 The peripheral was fairly sophisticated, but it was also affordable, 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.479 so it meant that people who otherwise might not be 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:19.240 able to get hold of the sensors that they needed 0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:23.960 to work on their projects had another option. Sadly, Microsoft 0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:27.000 never really found a way to profit from that. In fact, 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:30.680 they kind of hamstrung attempts to make use of the 0:21:30.680 --> 0:21:33.600 Connect in this way. They made some changes to the 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:37.040 connect that actually eliminated those use cases, or at least 0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:40.600 made them much more difficult to do, which is unfortunate 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.960 because the Connect otherwise, you know, it kind of died 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:48.040 a sad death. It never really reached full adoption by 0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:52.920 the the video game community, largely because there was a 0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:56.560 lack of support from the developer side. But the Connect 0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:59.960 could have continued a very useful life in robotics and AI. 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:02.920 Unfortunately it just didn't turn out that way. But it's 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:05.000 the sort of thing that can happen along the hype 0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:08.560 cycle where the hacker community figures out fun ways to 0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:13.920 use or depending on your point of view, misuse a technology. Now, 0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:18.439 gradually the technology emerges from the slope of enlightenment to 0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:22.639 hit the plateau of productivity. Now it's in this phase 0:22:22.680 --> 0:22:26.359 that the text capabilities and usefulness are well understood by 0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:30.200 the market, so it's found its place. It is likely 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:33.760 not nearly as grand as was expected back in the 0:22:33.800 --> 0:22:36.560 early part of the hype cycle, but it also is 0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:41.159 somewhat sustainable or even profitable. Not all tech reaches the stage, 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.480 mind you, Some just outright fail because the customer base 0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:48.160 never forms around it. I've got a really good example 0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:51.240 of a tech that never reached the plateau of productivity, 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.920 and it is three D Television's Now when I first 0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:58.040 started working at how stuff works dot com, which I 0:22:58.040 --> 0:23:01.439 think was back in two thousand ven. Well, three D 0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:05.080 TVs were being pushed really hard by multiple companies as 0:23:05.119 --> 0:23:08.440 well as by the movie and TV studios, and there 0:23:08.440 --> 0:23:10.760 were a lot of different reasons for this. So from 0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:14.600 the artistic side, you had directors who were convinced that 0:23:14.680 --> 0:23:16.720 making films and three D would give them a new 0:23:16.760 --> 0:23:19.280 set of tools to tell their stories in a way 0:23:19.320 --> 0:23:23.399 that they had envisioned. I'm thinking primarily of folks like 0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:27.040 James Cameron and Peter Jackson. These were directors who really 0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:30.280 embraced elements of three D technology with the thought that 0:23:30.359 --> 0:23:33.320 it was a real way to enhance a story and 0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:36.919 evoke a response from the audience. And since that's what 0:23:37.000 --> 0:23:41.240 storytellers want to do, I kind of understand this. From 0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:44.600 the movie studio side, there were a couple of really 0:23:44.840 --> 0:23:49.040 big reasons to push three D TV and film. One 0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:52.000 of those big reasons is that it is way harder 0:23:52.040 --> 0:23:56.119 to pirate three D movies than two D movies. You 0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:59.560 need special cameras to capture the three D effect, you 0:23:59.600 --> 0:24:02.480 need se shoal equipment to reproduce the three D effect. 0:24:02.840 --> 0:24:06.000 And since the film and television industries have traditionally been 0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:10.879 absolutely certain that every pirated copy of a work represents 0:24:10.920 --> 0:24:15.520 a lost sale and thus lost revenue. Things that appear 0:24:15.520 --> 0:24:19.359 to help curtail piracy are highly valued. Now, I'm not 0:24:19.440 --> 0:24:23.640 gonna go into the logical fallacies behind piracy and lost sales, 0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.399 as that goes well beyond this discussion. But if you 0:24:26.440 --> 0:24:29.240 want to hear more about those ideas, I've got several 0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:33.720 episodes that touch on it in the archives. Anyway, the 0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:37.359 TV manufacturing companies were really behind three D tv s 0:24:37.400 --> 0:24:40.320 because you know, it created a reason for customers to 0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:43.439 go out and buy a new television. Let's face it, 0:24:43.720 --> 0:24:47.160 there are certain types of tech, like smartphones, for example, 0:24:47.600 --> 0:24:51.479