1 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to tex Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. 2 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: Hey there, and welcome to tex Stuff. I'm your host, 3 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio 4 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: and I love all things tech. And there is an 5 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: increasing amount of conversation around the concept of the metaverse, 6 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: which is pretty amusing because there's no real definition of 7 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: what a metaverse is or will be. But generally speaking, 8 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: most versions I've seen revolve around some combination of virtual 9 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: reality or VR and augmented reality or a R implementations 10 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: that allow for a persistent and pervasive integration of digital 11 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: and physical realities. How's that for some consultant marketing speak. Now, 12 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: some versions lean way more on the VR side and 13 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: suggest that the next phase of the Internet will be 14 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: made up of virtual spaces and people roaming around as avatars. 15 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 1: By the way, that is an idea that has been 16 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: around for a long time, with folks kind of thinking 17 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 1: of this as a sort of web three point oh 18 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: for ages. Heck, you watch movies where people are accessing 19 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: the Internet, especially from like the nineties, like the late nineties, 20 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,839 Speaker 1: and it almost always was envisioned as you know, navigating 21 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 1: through a virtual three dimensional space, even though that's not 22 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: how any of us really interface with the Internet, so 23 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: it's interesting that this still is is launching onto that idea. However, 24 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 1: what all of this has really reminded me of is 25 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: the concept of the hype cycle, which is not a 26 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: super enthusiastic two wheeled vehicle. It's, you know, kind of 27 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: a concept here. It's um the hype cycle, or more 28 00:01:54,520 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: properly Gartner's hype cycle, because it's from the research company Gardner. 29 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: It's a way to describe the stages that a concept 30 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: or technology goes through from ideation, as in the first 31 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: announcement of the tech, not just the thinking of it, 32 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: but even just the expression of what attack might do, 33 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: all the way to actual realization and adoption. It's not 34 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: a straight path. In fact, it's got very curvy. If 35 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: you look at a graphic of the hype cycle, it's 36 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: almost always shown as a curve. It starts off low, 37 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 1: peaks up, slopes down, dramatically bottoms out, and then slowly 38 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: grows from there. That's that's how it always looks. So 39 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: it's a journey that includes diversions into overenthusiastic expectations and 40 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: some trips over into the mundane reality that tech can 41 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: settle into. But we're going to explore all those various 42 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: key moments shortly. First, let's learn a little bit about 43 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:02,519 Speaker 1: where this came from. So back in a market analyst 44 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: named Jackie Fen created the hype cycle concept by observing 45 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:12,359 Speaker 1: the typical phases that technologies tend to go through. Now, 46 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: to be clear, this has little to do with the 47 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: capabilities of the tech itself. I mean that does tie 48 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: into it, but it has more to do with the 49 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: general perception of the tech. So you can think of 50 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: it like buzz or excitement. And while there are a 51 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: lot of examples of tech going through these phases, it's 52 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 1: not exactly a law or anything like that. It's more 53 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: like these are trends that we see pop up frequently, right, 54 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 1: It's it's a pattern that we've seen repeat itself. So 55 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: there are five phases in the hype cycle. We start 56 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: off with what is called the technology trigger. This is 57 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: when a tech which can be hardware, or it could 58 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: be software, or it could be a service, it could 59 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: be any combination of those things. It just has to 60 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: be new. This is when it first launches in some way. 61 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: And by launches, I don't necessarily mean you actually get 62 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: a physical product that rolls out or an actual service 63 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: that you can subscribe to right at the get go. Instead, 64 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: there's some form of announcement. It might be a demonstration, 65 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: or it might be, you know, something similar along those 66 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: lines that alerts people that this technology exists. I think 67 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: of the mother of all demos, uh, something that we 68 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: often hear about, where things like graphical user interfaces and 69 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 1: the first computer mouse were really shown off to you know, 70 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: a wider audience. That's sort of an example of a 71 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: technology trigger. If you want to think of something a 72 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: little more recent, although still in our past, think of 73 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: the old Apple press events where Steve Jobs would introduce 74 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: his one more Thing. It was typically something brand new 75 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: from Apple. Now, I should point out that an Apple's case, 76 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: we were mostly talking about technology that had already been 77 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: in some form of existence from other companies, and Apple 78 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: really just went in and refined it and made it, 79 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: you know, aesthetically pleasing, and we're able to market it properly. 80 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: But you know, this is an event that tells the world, hey, 81 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: we've got something neat over here and you should check 82 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: it out. Now. In these early stages, it's not unusual 83 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: for the creators of the technology to promote the heck 84 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: out of it, you know, hiring PR firms and marketing 85 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: firms to really push this out, even if that technology 86 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 1: has a very limited use case or doesn't actually work yet. So, 87 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: for example, you could argue eight K televisions are somewhere 88 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: in this phase right now because a K TVs have 89 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: been around for a bit, it's not like they're brand new. However, 90 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: there's not really any native eight K content you can 91 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: get on those TVs. So you've got televisions that are 92 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: technically capable of playing ultra ultra high definition video, but 93 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: you have a lack of actual video content that meets 94 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 1: that level of resolution. So you've got something that's able 95 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: to show you this incredible picture, you just don't have 96 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 1: any of the content that has that built into it. Now, 97 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: you could argue that eight K t V s are 98 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: actually a bit further along the hype cycle than where 99 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: I'm talking about right now, because most of them can 100 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: actually upscale lower definition video and boost it so it 101 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: looks better. Meanwhile, eight K t V s are marketed 102 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: toward home theater enthusiasts who like to get out their 103 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: set up with the most advanced tech available in the 104 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 1: space people who make way more money than I do. 105 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 1: In other words, typically the goal for creators at this 106 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: stage is to talk of the tech so that investors 107 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: become interested in it and they will start to pour 108 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: some money into the efforts to keep things going. So 109 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 1: this can be a really tense waiting game because you 110 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: need the cash to flow in to operate until a 111 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: market develops that can support the technology. But that also 112 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 1: means that you have to convince the investors that there 113 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,359 Speaker 1: will be a market for the tech at some point, 114 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: even if there isn't one at that very moment. So 115 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: our starting point is the technology trigger. So if you imagine, 116 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: you know, a graph, and the X axis is marked 117 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: as time, So the further to the right you go, 118 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: the more time has passed, and the y axis is 119 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: marked in expectations. So the higher up on the y 120 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: axis you are, the higher expectations are for this tech. Well, 121 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: the tech trigger would be our starting point. It would 122 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: be at the beginning of our time axis, and it 123 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: wouldn't be very high up on expectations. From there, however, 124 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: we ramp up expectations dramatically in a relatively short amount 125 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: of time. This is where I would argue we are 126 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: in the metaverse conversation right now. We're thinking about possibilities 127 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: with companies like meta Slash Facebook really pushing this concept 128 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: super hard and investing huge amounts of money and dedicating 129 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: enormous teams toward developing stuff that people can actually use. 130 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: Along the way, we might see some early implementations of technology, 131 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: this particular tech, whether it's metaverse or something else. But 132 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: typically the implementations we see during this this early phase 133 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: after the technology trigger, they're really limited, and if they're 134 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: actually available at all to consumers, they're really really expensive. 135 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: This is when bleeding edge early adopters might jump in, 136 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: and we've seen this with lots of tech over the years. 137 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: I remember when CD players first hit the market, compact discs, y'all, 138 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: I'm old. When compact disc players first hit the market, 139 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: they were prohibitively expensive for many people. I mean, they 140 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: were hundreds and hundreds of dollars, and keep in mind 141 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: that with inflation that would probably be more than a 142 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 1: thousand dollars today, so it was way too expensive for 143 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 1: people like yours. Truly. I remember I didn't get my 144 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,959 Speaker 1: first CD player, which was actually a little portable CD 145 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 1: player until years after they had been on the market 146 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: because they were just too expensive. Now, without early adopters, 147 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: most technology, particularly hardware, wouldn't go anywhere, Investors would lose 148 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: confidence in the tech, and companies wouldn't be able to 149 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: scale up to produce stuff at a a scale where 150 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: they could bring prices down. Now, according to the Gartner 151 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: hype cycle, around the time early adopters start exploring tech 152 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: is when mass media really starts to pick up the 153 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: story and run with it and thus push the hype further. 154 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: Then we reached the top of this climb at you 155 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: know where the hype cycle calls it the peak of 156 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: inflated expectations. So this is like the top of the 157 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: first hill in your classic out and back roller coaster. 158 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: It's the highest point that you're ever going to hit. 159 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 1: And as the name suggests, this is when people have 160 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 1: the highest expectations for the tech will be able to do. Uh, 161 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: these are expectations that are likely not going to be 162 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: borne out by the technology itself. Now, I can think 163 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: of no better example of a tech that went through 164 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: this particular phase in a way that was incredibly apparent 165 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,079 Speaker 1: than virtual reality. In fact, I could argue that it's 166 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: done this a couple of times now. But back in 167 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: the very late eighties early nineties, the early stages of 168 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: VR had the world anticipating an entirely new experience with computing. 169 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: We would all be immersed in computer virtual worlds, and 170 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: it's a narrative that we're seeing repeated today with the 171 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: metaverse discussions. And there was a lot of exciting R 172 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 1: and D in the field of VR at this time. 173 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: It's just that our technical capabilities were fairly primitive compared 174 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: to what people were imagining. We had movies and TV 175 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: shows come out that centered on this premise of an 176 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: unbelievably immersive virtual experience, one that in some cases would 177 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: literally pull you into a virtual world. And even this 178 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: idea was preceded by films like Tron, which came out 179 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: before the VR craze had even begun. But then folks 180 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: got a chance to actually experience VR for themselves. I 181 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: remember a VR arcade opened up in a mall not 182 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: too far from where I lived, and so I went 183 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: and paid I think it was like five bucks for 184 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: five minutes in order to experience it. The actual graphics 185 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 1: in the world were beyond primitive, everything consisted of very 186 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: simple polygons. I played a game called Dactyl Nightmare, infamous 187 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: in VR circles. This was way back in the day 188 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: like uh and Dactyl, by the way, means like like 189 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 1: Pterodactyl because there was a a quote unquote pterodactyl flying around, 190 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 1: a bunch of polygons flying around that could occasionally pick 191 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: you up and drop you. It was an interesting example 192 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 1: of VR capabilities, but it was far from a sophisticated experience, 193 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: and I really recommend going on YouTube and searching videos 194 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: of it if you're interested. Just remember that it's an 195 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: experience that came out in n anyway. The point I'm 196 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: making is that the expectation of what VR would be 197 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: and the reality of what it was that was a 198 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: huge disconnect. As a result, people lost interest in VR 199 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: pretty quickly, and that loss of interest had a devastating 200 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: effect on the VR research industry. Organizations that had previously 201 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:37,359 Speaker 1: enjoyed financial support found themselves scrounging for money. Some programs 202 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: had to shut down entirely as folks decided that their 203 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: money might be better spent on other pursuits, other investments. 204 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: The VR industry as a whole almost died. Some departments 205 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: that were exploring VRS use and stuff like medical treatments 206 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: were reduced to hacking together VR systems from video game 207 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: peripherals in order to make it work. Devices like the 208 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 1: Nintendo Power Glove or the PlayStation I or the Microsoft Connect. 209 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 1: We're all to varying degrees failures in the gaming space, 210 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: but the VR industry took those tools, altered them, and 211 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: made use of them. We'll explore more of the hype 212 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 1: cycle in just a moment, but first let's take this 213 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: quick break. So VR had entered the third phase of 214 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: the hype cycle. We were at the technology trigger, we 215 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 1: were at the peak of inflated expectations, and then we 216 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: start to enter the trough of disillusionment. I love the 217 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: names for these phases, by the way. It makes me 218 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: think of things like the Pit of Despair from The 219 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 1: Princess Bride. But yeah, the trough of disillusionment. So between 220 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 1: the peak of inflated expectations and the trough of disillusionment 221 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: is a decline that in most versions of the hype cycle. 222 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: It's just as steep as the climb up to the 223 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 1: peak of inflated expectations and almost as long like you 224 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 1: almost go down as far as when you first announced 225 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 1: the technology. UM. In most versions of this cycle, that's 226 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: not necessarily indicative of what every technology goes through, but 227 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: that's typically how it's how it's illustrated. UM. Along the 228 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 1: way between that peak and that trough, you start encountering 229 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: things like negative press as the media begins to criticize 230 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: the tech for not living up to expectations. Now, this 231 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: is rich and hypocritical, and I think most of the 232 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: press is not blind to the fact that the press 233 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: contributes to inflated expectations. Right. It's part of the press 234 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: covering the stuff that builds up the hype and enthusiasm, 235 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: and then that same press reaps the reward of throwing 236 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: shade at a technology once it fails to meet those 237 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: heightened expectations. So, in other words, the press benefits on 238 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: both sides of this curve. And I mean that's typically 239 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 1: where the press does its best work, right in the 240 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: sense of where they get the most cash. They end 241 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: up making a lot of getting a lot of attention 242 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: by hyping things up, and then a lot of attention 243 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: by tearing things down up And then once you get 244 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: past that, you know you're still gonna get coverage, but 245 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: it won't be nearly as sensational as that part of 246 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 1: the hype cycle. So this decline is also when you 247 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: start to see companies that had begun to pop up 248 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: during the climb, you know, companies that were specializing either 249 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: in the technology or producing something that was tangential or 250 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: connected to that technology. You start to see the number 251 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: of companies decrease. There's the sort of fade away by 252 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: the number of players in the space. So there's also 253 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: a lot of consolidation in this stage as well, where 254 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: smaller companies will end up merging together because they wouldn't 255 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: be able to survive on their own. Sometimes they're not 256 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: able to survive even after they merge, and they still, 257 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: you know, they still fail. I'm reminded of the dot 258 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: com craze leading up to two thousand. I was also 259 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: those before. I was working at how Stuff Works, but 260 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: I was working at a consulting firm and a lot 261 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: of our our clients were in the dot com space. Well, 262 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: the during the heyday business was great, but then you 263 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: hit two thousand and two thousand one and things took 264 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: a dramatic turn. We saw so many web based companies 265 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: appear up to that point, a lot of which you know, 266 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: had tons of investments, like ludicrous amounts of venture capital 267 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: pouring into them, even when they had no real business 268 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: plan to support the organization. And then the market shifted 269 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: in two thousand and again in two thousand one, particularly 270 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: after the attacks on nine eleven, and a lot of 271 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 1: those companies weren't able to survive this shifting market, this 272 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: declining market, and the web as a whole kind of 273 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: entered the trough of disillusionment as people began to realize 274 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 1: that the gold rush days of the web really weren't 275 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: going to pay off, at least not at this crazy 276 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: return on investment that people had anticipated. Now typically around 277 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: the trough, only a small percentage of the text potential 278 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: customer base has actually adopted the technology, so we haven't 279 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: really gone beyond early adopters yet. We're talking less than 280 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: ten percent of the potential market, maybe less than five 281 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: of the potential market, even having bought into the tech 282 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: at this point. But on the flip side, when you 283 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 1: hit rock bottom, there's nowhere left to go but up, 284 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 1: unless you can't rebound at all, in which case you 285 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: go nowhere like you just stop existing. But let's talk 286 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 1: about the tech that manages to weather this storm in 287 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: the hype cycle. Now, around this time is when we 288 00:17:56,200 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: typically start to see a new generation of products or 289 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: services based in and around this technology. So the first 290 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: generation will have taught folks what works, what doesn't work, 291 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 1: and what could work better. So ideally the second generation 292 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: of products will be built upon that knowledge and address 293 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: the flaws and accentuate the things that made the tech 294 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 1: appealing in the first place, to make better versions. In 295 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 1: other words, So now we start to enter the fourth phase. 296 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: This is called the slope of enlightenment, or as I 297 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: typeoed in my notes, the slop of enlightenment, which just 298 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: sounds like something that pigs would really enjoy, very thoughtful pigs. 299 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: Now it's the slope of enlightenment. This is when people 300 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: actually figure out what the tech is good for. Now 301 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 1: it maybe that has uses that were never anticipated during 302 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: the initial hype phase of this technology, and that while 303 00:18:56,320 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 1: the real tech can't live up to the grandiose promus 304 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,120 Speaker 1: is of stuff that we heard about during the peak 305 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: of inflated expectations, the stuff it can do might still 306 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 1: be really compelling. Now that realization might come from the 307 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: creators of the tech themselves. It's actually possible that it's 308 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: what they had in mind the whole time, but the 309 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: hype got away from them, right. They might have said 310 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 1: this will be very good for X, but during the 311 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 1: hype phase, the early phase, it's promoted as X to 312 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 1: the tenth power times a billion, and that's not what 313 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: the creators were ever claiming. That can happen sometimes the 314 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: realization actually comes from outside the creators, with folks figuring 315 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: out really cool uses of this technology that the creators 316 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 1: had never even really intended. Now, again, this makes me 317 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 1: think of the Microsoft Connect in that regard. So in 318 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 1: case you're not familiar with these, the Connect devices were 319 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 1: peripherals for a couple of different Xbox consoles. There were 320 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: two main generations of the Microsoft Connect. They incorporated cameras, 321 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: including an infrared camera, and microphones that were meant to 322 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: boost the interactive capabilities of an Xbox console. So the 323 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 1: Connect could sense depth and it could create essentially a 324 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: three D map of a space, and that meant that 325 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 1: when the Connect was paired with the right software, it 326 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 1: could sense movement along three axes, the X, Y and 327 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: Z ax s or if you prefer it could sense 328 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 1: movement left and right, up and down, and toward and 329 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: away from the camera. Now, the purpose of this peripheral 330 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 1: was to give game developers options to create new kinds 331 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: of games that would lean on those capabilities, like a 332 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 1: fighting game where your real world motions would be translated 333 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: into the game in some way. Or they could use 334 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: it to create new ways to interact with the Xboxes 335 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 1: user interface, so that you could do things like activate 336 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: a game with your voice or by gesturing a certain way. 337 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: But what was cool was that the AI and robotics 338 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 1: fields began to use the connect in their projects. They 339 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: began to hack the connect and make use of it. 340 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: The peripheral was fairly sophisticated, but it was also affordable, 341 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,479 Speaker 1: so it meant that people who otherwise might not be 342 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: able to get hold of the sensors that they needed 343 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: to work on their projects had another option. Sadly, Microsoft 344 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: never really found a way to profit from that. In fact, 345 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: they kind of hamstrung attempts to make use of the 346 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: Connect in this way. They made some changes to the 347 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: connect that actually eliminated those use cases, or at least 348 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: made them much more difficult to do, which is unfortunate 349 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: because the Connect otherwise, you know, it kind of died 350 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: a sad death. It never really reached full adoption by 351 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 1: the the video game community, largely because there was a 352 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: lack of support from the developer side. But the Connect 353 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: could have continued a very useful life in robotics and AI. 354 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 1: Unfortunately it just didn't turn out that way. But it's 355 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: the sort of thing that can happen along the hype 356 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: cycle where the hacker community figures out fun ways to 357 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: use or depending on your point of view, misuse a technology. Now, 358 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: gradually the technology emerges from the slope of enlightenment to 359 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 1: hit the plateau of productivity. Now it's in this phase 360 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: that the text capabilities and usefulness are well understood by 361 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: the market, so it's found its place. It is likely 362 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: not nearly as grand as was expected back in the 363 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: early part of the hype cycle, but it also is 364 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 1: somewhat sustainable or even profitable. Not all tech reaches the stage, 365 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: mind you, Some just outright fail because the customer base 366 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,160 Speaker 1: never forms around it. I've got a really good example 367 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: of a tech that never reached the plateau of productivity, 368 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: and it is three D Television's Now when I first 369 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: started working at how stuff works dot com, which I 370 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 1: think was back in two thousand ven. Well, three D 371 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: TVs were being pushed really hard by multiple companies as 372 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 1: well as by the movie and TV studios, and there 373 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: were a lot of different reasons for this. So from 374 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: the artistic side, you had directors who were convinced that 375 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: making films and three D would give them a new 376 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: set of tools to tell their stories in a way 377 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 1: that they had envisioned. I'm thinking primarily of folks like 378 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: James Cameron and Peter Jackson. These were directors who really 379 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: embraced elements of three D technology with the thought that 380 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: it was a real way to enhance a story and 381 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: evoke a response from the audience. And since that's what 382 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: storytellers want to do, I kind of understand this. From 383 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: the movie studio side, there were a couple of really 384 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: big reasons to push three D TV and film. One 385 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: of those big reasons is that it is way harder 386 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 1: to pirate three D movies than two D movies. You 387 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: need special cameras to capture the three D effect, you 388 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: need se shoal equipment to reproduce the three D effect. 389 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: And since the film and television industries have traditionally been 390 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,879 Speaker 1: absolutely certain that every pirated copy of a work represents 391 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: a lost sale and thus lost revenue. Things that appear 392 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: to help curtail piracy are highly valued. Now, I'm not 393 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: gonna go into the logical fallacies behind piracy and lost sales, 394 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 1: as that goes well beyond this discussion. But if you 395 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: want to hear more about those ideas, I've got several 396 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: episodes that touch on it in the archives. Anyway, the 397 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 1: TV manufacturing companies were really behind three D tv s 398 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: because you know, it created a reason for customers to 399 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 1: go out and buy a new television. Let's face it, 400 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: there are certain types of tech, like smartphones, for example, 401 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,479 Speaker 1: that companies have successfully marketed as a gadget that you 402 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: need to replace every two to three years. Um. I 403 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: think of this kind of like the directions on shampoo 404 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,120 Speaker 1: that's say, rents and repeat. At least I assume shampoo's 405 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,120 Speaker 1: still say that I haven't had hair in more than 406 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,160 Speaker 1: twenty years, so I don't look at shampoo bobbles anymore. 407 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: There's I mean, there's just no reason right. So Anyway, 408 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: the whole rents and repeat thing, I mean, do you 409 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 1: need to rent and then repeat, well, you need to rentse, 410 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: you need to get the soap out of your hair, 411 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 1: but the repeat part probably you don't need to do that. However, 412 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: it does mean that you would end up using the 413 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 1: shampoo up twice as fast. That means you have to 414 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: buy shampoo more frequently, and that means more money for 415 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:38,360 Speaker 1: big shampoo, big shampoo. It's kind of hard to set 416 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: up that same kind of repeat business with folks buying television's. 417 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 1: At least back in the day, the idea was, you know, 418 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 1: you bought a TV and you pretty much stuck with 419 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: it until it don't work no more, at which point 420 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 1: you would either see if you could get it repaired, 421 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 1: or you know, you would buckle down and buy a 422 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: new one. In fact, that second one was, you know, 423 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: sometimes preferable, because as often the repair costs would be 424 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: about the same or maybe even more than buying a 425 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: new TV. Now, the emergence of h D t V 426 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: and the migration from analog TV to digital TV helped 427 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: change that a little bit. But after h D t 428 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 1: V came out, improvements in television were incremental or sometimes 429 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 1: not even noticeable, like you were reduced to arguing that 430 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:30,199 Speaker 1: your television was better at reproducing colors, for example, but 431 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:35,159 Speaker 1: you couldn't otherwise show some sort of technological advantage that 432 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: differentiated your TV from any of the other dozens of 433 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: televisions that were coming out at that same time. So 434 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 1: how do you create a demand for new televisions that 435 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 1: reaches beyond the small percentage of folks who are either 436 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 1: buying their very first TV or they're replacing, you know, 437 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 1: a broken television. Well, you have to introduce new features, 438 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 1: and three D was a new feature, one that companies 439 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: hoped would catch on, and they pushed really hard. For 440 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 1: about three years, you could not find a new TV 441 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: in store that either wasn't three D or three D ready. 442 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 1: It was pretty much a standard feature, and companies pushed 443 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: hard to get people to adopt three D televisions. But 444 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: there was a really big problem. Customers did not buy 445 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,720 Speaker 1: into the hype cycle, at least not like they had 446 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: with other types of technology. See, most people didn't care 447 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,080 Speaker 1: for the idea of having to wear special glasses just 448 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 1: to watch television, even if that TV had dynamite three 449 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: D effects. It would mean having to keep track of 450 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 1: yet more stuff, and in the case of active three 451 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 1: D glasses, you would have to keep that stuff charged 452 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 1: so that it works. The active three D glasses have 453 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 1: little shutters and the lenses and they alternate, so like 454 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: the left shutter is closed and the right shutter is open, 455 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: and then they switch and they do this many many 456 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: times a second. But in order to do that you 457 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 1: have to actually charge the glasses. They are powered, their 458 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 1: battery powered. So that proved to be too much for 459 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 1: the market to bear, and adoption was low, and the 460 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,919 Speaker 1: skepticism in the press, particularly in the tech journalism field, 461 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 1: was really high, and after a few years, manufacturers quietly 462 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: phased out marketing three D television's. I mean that doesn't 463 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: mean that there are no televisions out there that support 464 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 1: three D these days, but rather that stopped being the 465 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 1: feature that that companies like Panasonic and Sony were pushing. 466 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,240 Speaker 1: But man, they really did try and make a go 467 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: of it for a few years. There was more than 468 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 1: one c s I attended where these companies were really 469 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: trying to make three D TV at talking point. So 470 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: the hype cycle isn't necessarily a foregone conclusion. I'll explain 471 00:28:54,640 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 1: more after we come back from this quick break. So 472 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: not every technology is going to go through the hype 473 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: cycle sequence, and certainly not every tech will ultimately reach 474 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 1: the plateau of productivity. Some will just fade away. Uh. 475 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: You know, here's the crazy thing. The merit of the 476 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: technology itself doesn't necessarily play into whether it survives the 477 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 1: hype cycle or not. There are technologies quote unquote out 478 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: there that don't really do anything, that are essentially scams 479 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 1: that make it through and become profitable and and persist. 480 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: There are other technologies that arguably could be really useful 481 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 1: that don't survive this cycle. So you have to keep 482 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: in mind that surviving the hype cycle and being a 483 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: good technology don't necessarily overlap perfectly. You have a much 484 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 1: better chance of surviving the hype cycle if your technology 485 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 1: has merit. It's just not a guarantee, and it's not 486 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 1: a guarantee if your technology doesn't have merit that you 487 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: won't survive. That's the fun thing about human beings. Some 488 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 1: tech will enter that downward slope after they peek and 489 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: never pull out the dive. Some might have a more 490 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 1: gradual path from the point of introduction to the point 491 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: where they proved to be productive, but they don't have 492 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 1: dramatic highs and lows like it's not a technology that's 493 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 1: considered to be so sexy that they go through the 494 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 1: crazy hype cycle and then the trough of disillusionment. They 495 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 1: might have a more steady path from point A to 496 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 1: point B, with point B being the plateau of productivity. 497 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 1: But for certain technologies, we definitely can look at how 498 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 1: they emerged and plot them against this sort of general observation, 499 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 1: and that brings us back to the metaverse. I would 500 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 1: say we're still headed toward the peak of inflated expectations 501 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: at this point. We're still in that initial crazy hype 502 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: phase which has been pushed primarily by companies like Meta 503 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 1: Slash Facebook. However, at least some media outlets have not 504 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: butt into the hype and have not pushed that further, 505 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: pushed that narrative toward that peak um and they have 506 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 1: offered up a more level headed perspective. I would say 507 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 1: that the tech journalism side in particular has taken a 508 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 1: more realistic, or if you prefer, cynical view of the metaverse. 509 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: I count myself in that field. By the way, when 510 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: I say cynical, I'm not I'm not saying that they're wrong, 511 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 1: because I fully agree with them. Uh, they point out 512 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: that we just we don't even have a definition for 513 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 1: what the metaverse really is. We've got a lot of 514 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 1: competing definitions out there, so we we definitely don't have 515 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 1: a clear path to get into the metaverse because we 516 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 1: don't even all agree on what the metaverse is. Outlets 517 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 1: like The Verge have published some really great pieces about this, 518 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 1: and once you start to straight outside of tech journalism, 519 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 1: that's where reporting can get a little more loosey goosey. 520 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 1: You typically see this in places where the person who's 521 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: presenting the piece doesn't actually have a tech background, and 522 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: they're primarily repeating bullet points that might be laid out 523 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: in marketing literature. This is another issue we see a 524 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,719 Speaker 1: lot in I mean, it's it's you can't really call 525 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: it journalism at that point, right, but we see it 526 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,400 Speaker 1: done a lot of blogs that cover tech where the 527 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 1: blogger is essentially regurgitating a bullet list that was presented 528 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 1: by some PR firm to cover a technology and they're 529 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 1: not applying any kind of critical thinking or independent research 530 00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: or any kind of investigative journalism to it at all. 531 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 1: They're just presenting the bullet points practically as is, and 532 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 1: They're just elevating that that message, which again may not 533 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: be reflective of reality. Uh, and that's how they play 534 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 1: into that hype cycle. Metaverse. I'm not seeing that as much, 535 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: and I think a big part of that actually has 536 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: nothing to do with the concept of the metaverse itself, 537 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 1: but rather the growing distrust in Facebook you know now meta. 538 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 1: So there's this growing distrust in that company and of 539 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg in particular, and I think that is playing 540 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 1: way more into the narrative than necessarily the concept of 541 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 1: the metaverse itself. Uh. Even so, though even if you 542 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 1: remove Facebook from this this entire you know equation, I'm 543 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: still pretty skeptical that we're going to see a metaverse 544 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 1: in you know, the near future. I mentioned last week 545 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 1: in a tech News episode of Tech Stuff that there 546 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 1: was a blog post written by Intel's Rajah Kaduri. He's 547 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 1: the senior VP of Intel's Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics 548 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 1: group and could dury estimates that in order to support 549 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 1: a metaverse akin to something that you might see in 550 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 1: science fiction like Ready Player one, that it's going to 551 00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:00,120 Speaker 1: require something like a thousand times more computing power or 552 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: than what we have at our disposal today that includes processing, storage, 553 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 1: um networking infrastructure. All of that's going to have to 554 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,400 Speaker 1: be considerably more powerful than what we have today in 555 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: order to support the version of the metaverse that a 556 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 1: lot of people are talking about, this idea of this 557 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 1: persistent and pervasive virtual world that ties in with our 558 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: physical world in some meaningful way. We just aren't there yet. 559 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 1: And in fact this is you know, kind of proven 560 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 1: by the fact that most of the virtual environments that 561 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: are kind of the proto version of the metaverse that 562 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: we have today are incredibly limited and primitive. They might 563 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 1: be limited to something like twenty or fewer participants in 564 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 1: a given space. Well that's not that's not a metaverse, right, 565 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: That's not what you think of when you hear the 566 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 1: word metaverse, you do. You think of interconnected worlds that 567 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 1: you can move in between easily and that can have 568 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 1: hunt ards of thousands of people in it. Well, we're 569 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 1: nowhere close to that, and so we're not likely to 570 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 1: see a version of the metaverse that even closely resembles 571 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 1: what's being marketed in in in the near future. Also, 572 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,920 Speaker 1: the VR and A r ideations of the metaverse are 573 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: going to require people to invest a significant amount of 574 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 1: money into hardware in order to access those services. You know, 575 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,839 Speaker 1: virtual reality has gone through the hype cycle a couple 576 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,880 Speaker 1: of times, like I mentioned, and there is you know, 577 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 1: a customer base for virtual reality, but it's still pretty small. 578 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,279 Speaker 1: So right now, those would be the people who would 579 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 1: arguably have the hardware that might allow them to access this, 580 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 1: although that's not clear either. It may be that by 581 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,239 Speaker 1: the time we actually have a quote unquote metaverse available, 582 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:54,520 Speaker 1: the tech we have today, like the hardware like VR 583 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 1: sets and stuff, won't be up to the task. We 584 00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, if you want to have an 585 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 1: untethered experi ants, that's gonna cost you more, obviously, So 586 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 1: that's gonna limit the audience for the metaverse to people 587 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 1: who can afford it. So you're gonna have haves and 588 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,239 Speaker 1: have nots, right because they're going to be people who 589 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: just can't go out and purchase a computer system and 590 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 1: VR hardware and are hardware to be able to experience it. 591 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 1: So you're gonna have a digital divide based on you know, 592 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:27,839 Speaker 1: economic status. Beyond that, presumably everyone who can afford it, 593 00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,359 Speaker 1: not not all of them will be interested in it, right, 594 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 1: Like there's gonna be people who actually could technically afford 595 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 1: to access the metaverse who might not have any reason 596 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,719 Speaker 1: to do so, so they don't have any you know, 597 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,680 Speaker 1: impetus to get involved. So that means that the percentage 598 00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,359 Speaker 1: of people who will want to and be able to 599 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,520 Speaker 1: access the metaverse will be pretty limited. It might be 600 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 1: so limited that it doesn't go anywhere. So there are 601 00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 1: a lot of reasons to doubt that the metaverse is 602 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 1: going to come along at least any time in the 603 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 1: near future. It may be inevitable, but we're talking about 604 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 1: a much longer timeline than what is typically presented to 605 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 1: us through marketing pushes. So it's something that we need 606 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,399 Speaker 1: to keep in mind. I think the hype cycle, while 607 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:18,000 Speaker 1: you know it's it's again not universal. We can't apply 608 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 1: to every single technology, not all of them participated in 609 00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,600 Speaker 1: the hype cycle at the same pace as everything else. Right, 610 00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,640 Speaker 1: There's some things that over the course of many years 611 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 1: went through this process, and somewhere maybe it's over the 612 00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,560 Speaker 1: course of a year and a half um But I 613 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,239 Speaker 1: think it's useful for us to think of in the 614 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:40,280 Speaker 1: in the sense of keeping ourselves grounded when something new 615 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,439 Speaker 1: is debuting, and to remember the promises that are being 616 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: made early on may not at all come to pass, 617 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,680 Speaker 1: and that it's okay to be excited with new technology. 618 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,160 Speaker 1: It's okay to be interested in new technology. If you're 619 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,759 Speaker 1: an early adopter. It's okay to adopt that technology as 620 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,040 Speaker 1: long as you're doing so with the knowledge that it 621 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,760 Speaker 1: might not live up to the hype, and that could 622 00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,279 Speaker 1: be okay. As long as there is you know, a 623 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:10,000 Speaker 1: good use case for it, then it's okay. If it 624 00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,680 Speaker 1: doesn't live up to the hype, it's okay if it 625 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:18,200 Speaker 1: it has uh returns, they're not nearly as grand as 626 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 1: long as everyone's willing to, you know, take that chill 627 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 1: pill and and go forward with a more level headed approach. 628 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,919 Speaker 1: The issue is that we often don't see that happen. 629 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,359 Speaker 1: I mean, that's why the hype cycle was even uh 630 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,239 Speaker 1: something that you could say is a thing. You know, 631 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,120 Speaker 1: that's a trend that we've seen happen many times, that 632 00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:43,439 Speaker 1: history repeats itself. That people get caught up in these 633 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:48,000 Speaker 1: ideas and they drum up the hype and they also 634 00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 1: drum up the disappointment when the hype fails to match reality. 635 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:54,760 Speaker 1: This is something that we're probably gonna keep on seeing. 636 00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,279 Speaker 1: But as individuals, if we're aware of it, we can 637 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,520 Speaker 1: limit its effect on ourselves, elves, and maybe on people 638 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 1: with that we care about, so that they don't, you know, 639 00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,280 Speaker 1: put all their money in f t s for example. 640 00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,160 Speaker 1: Al Right, well, I hope you found this episode about 641 00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:16,279 Speaker 1: the hype cycle interesting. I really love talking about it 642 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,080 Speaker 1: because I do think it's a useful tool to to 643 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:23,359 Speaker 1: kind of examine really marketing trends in tech more than 644 00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 1: tech itself, and it allows me to look back on 645 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,399 Speaker 1: my own history with tech and see the times where 646 00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,600 Speaker 1: I bought in to the hype and times where I 647 00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:38,960 Speaker 1: felt truly disillusioned by the realities of tech, and of 648 00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,279 Speaker 1: course also the times where I bought into the tech 649 00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 1: after it has gone through that cycle because I couldn't 650 00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,239 Speaker 1: afford to do it before that, so I bought it 651 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,319 Speaker 1: when I knew what the tech could and could not do, 652 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:55,880 Speaker 1: not because I was smart, but because I was poor. Anyway, 653 00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,839 Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed that episode. If you have suggestions 654 00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,279 Speaker 1: for topics I should cover tech stuff, reach out to me. 655 00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,759 Speaker 1: The best way to do that is on Twitter. The 656 00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,000 Speaker 1: handle for the show is text stuff h s W 657 00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:17,080 Speaker 1: and I'll talk to you again really soon. Yeah. Text 658 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:20,560 Speaker 1: Stuff is an I heart Radio production. For more podcasts 659 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,320 Speaker 1: from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, 660 00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.