1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. 5 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: I'm your host today, Brendan Glasheen back with Billy Ward 6 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: and Sean Sorillo. That's me. That means it's time for 7 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,279 Speaker 1: best bets for this weekend's UFC car. UFC Fight Night 8 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: heads to Saint Louis, Missouri. You're new to the program, 9 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: We make our way through main event, fire of the night, 10 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: we hit underdogs, props, and then a best bet and 11 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: that's a that's the program. So let's let's get started here. 12 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: We've got the main event featuring Derek Lewis and Rodrigo 13 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: Nasimento this coming weekend. Nacimento the under on this card 14 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: plus one thirty six for the main event and Derek 15 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: Lewis priced around minus one sixty. Seanzillo, your assessment of 16 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: this matchup and how you'd like to betit. 17 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,559 Speaker 3: So handicapping all Derek Lewis fights is kind of the same. 18 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 3: You figure out what the percentage chance that Lewis knocks 19 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 3: out his opponent is sure, and then gave all the 20 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 3: other inequity essentially to his opponent now. Nacimento is kind 21 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 3: of a similar matchup stylistically and in terms of his 22 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 3: skill set as Lewis's last oponent, Jaylton Omada, who controlled 23 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 3: Derek Lewis for longer than we've ever seen him controlled 24 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: twenty one of the twenty five minutes in that fight, 25 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 3: didn't finish Derek Lewis. It was one of the greatest 26 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 3: defensive mount performances we've ever seen in UFC history because 27 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 3: he spent basically twenty minutes mounted by his opponent and 28 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 3: somehow did not get finished. But I think Jalton was 29 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 3: just very worried about Lewis exploding up, getting the fight 30 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 3: back to the feet, and then potentially landing the one 31 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: knockout blow that he needs to finish any fight. He 32 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 3: is the most knockouts in the UFC history with fourteen. 33 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 3: This will be his twelfth main event or five round 34 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 3: five experience or appearance, so he has a lot of 35 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 3: experience in these longer five round fights, doesn't necessarily have 36 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 3: the cardio for them. In fact, he only has one 37 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 3: fourth round knockout on his record to believe one decision 38 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 3: over the course of five rounds, but The last time 39 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 3: we saw him get extended really, aside from the Jaelten fight, 40 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 3: was against Marcutt, and he was basically done via body 41 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 3: shots in the fourth round, and he's very vulnerable to 42 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 3: the body and to the legs. At this stage of 43 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 3: his career. He's taken a lot of damage, but he 44 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 3: still only needs one to finish his opponent. And the 45 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 3: difference between Nasimento and Gelton Almada, As I said, stylistically, 46 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 3: they're very similar, but I don't know Nasamento's jiu jitsu 47 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 3: is as good. I don't think his wrestling as is good, 48 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 3: and I don't think he is as naturally strong or 49 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 3: good as good of an athlete as Jelaton Almados. So 50 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 3: he's slower, he's more hittable. He's going to be there 51 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 3: for Derek Lewis to touch, and I think Lewis is 52 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 3: going to put his hands on him at some point. 53 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 3: Kennis shinn't take it. I'm not really sure. He was 54 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 3: knocked out by Chris Gauchez, who does not hit nearly 55 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 3: in the same stratosphere as Derek Lewis, So I'm expecting 56 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 3: Lewis to touch that chin at some point within the 57 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 3: first few rounds. I like him to win by knockout 58 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 3: in rounds one, two, or three. You can get that 59 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 3: at minus one oh five. You could also structure a 60 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 3: bet with Lewis to win by knockout rounds one or 61 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 3: two at plus one twenty five, and then in rounds 62 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 3: two or three at plus three twenty I would probably 63 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 3: wait double for the round one or two as I 64 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 3: would to the round two or three. Your profit if 65 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 3: it hits one or three, your profit doubly or quadruple 66 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 3: essentially if it hits in round two. And that is 67 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 3: how a lot of Derek Lewis fights play out. His 68 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 3: opponents star at him for five minutes, they try to 69 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 3: get the feeling of the range, and then eventually round 70 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 3: two starts, they pick up the pace a little bit 71 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 3: and either they get clipped and get kot or they 72 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 3: find a way to get the fights to mat and 73 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 3: start to put damage on Derek Lewis. So I like 74 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 3: Lewis early. I probably like Nasamanta late. He just hasn't 75 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 3: been in a five round fight in his career. So 76 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 3: I don't really know how it's going to play out 77 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: the dynamics if this does end up extending, But I 78 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 3: would expect somebody to finish this fight within the first 79 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 3: fifteen minutes, and I'll take Lewis at around even money 80 00:03:59,040 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 3: to do so. 81 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: All right, Fourteen of his eighteen wins all by knockout 82 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: UFC record Derek Lewis, despite the shakiness I guess of Nacimento, 83 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: he is four and one billy per your Luck ratings. 84 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: Not enough information to find value on the line. So 85 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: how would you like to go about this or is 86 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 1: there a live angle that you'd like to share? Possibly? 87 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's an interesting moment. I'm gonna preface all this 88 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 4: with saying, if this weren't a main event and we 89 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 4: didn't like have to talk about it, I would absolutely 90 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 4: not want to touch on this fight at all. And 91 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 4: the problem is that it's just really hard to handicap 92 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,359 Speaker 4: Derek Lewis, partially because the reasons Rilla said, but also 93 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 4: because his motivation and preparedness fluctuates so wildly from fight 94 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 4: to fight, where. 95 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 5: Sometimes he comes in really good. 96 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 4: Shapes, got little baby abs going, He's clearly been training 97 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 4: all the time, and sometimes he's just there to collect 98 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 4: a paycheck. Either way, he's gonna throw a few bombs, 99 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 4: but whether the speed and the timing and the distance management, 100 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 4: whether he's been training all of that, we really never 101 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 4: actually know. And I think we're at the point now 102 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,799 Speaker 4: with Derek Lewis where I don't think he can himself 103 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 4: or is all that interested in making a title run. 104 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 5: That's not really why he's here. You know. 105 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 4: He puts on fun fights, He gets a big knockout 106 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 4: every once in a while, gets extra fifty k. That's 107 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 4: more his vibe than trying to just be the best 108 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 4: fighter in the world. And he's only won one of 109 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 4: his last five and that fight was when his contract 110 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 4: was expiring, and then he came out and got a big, 111 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 4: flying knee knockout. Looked great. That was before the Almata fight. 112 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 4: He apparently signed a huge deal coming into that one. 113 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 4: So my lean here is that we don't get the 114 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 4: best Derek Lewis. He's thirty nine now, you know, never 115 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,160 Speaker 4: a guy who is super disciplined or all that interested 116 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 4: in training very hard. Don't think that gets better now 117 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 4: that he's making more money, been around longer, more wear 118 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 4: and tear on the body, all those things. So if 119 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 4: I had to beat this one pre fight, I would 120 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 4: lean Nasimento. It's not a strong feeling because if Derek 121 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 4: Lewis is one. 122 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 5: Hundred percent, he should absolutely start him. 123 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 4: I don't think he is, And then yeah, nasimentto live 124 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 4: you kind of cover that either way, because if Lewis 125 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 4: is unprepared and his cardio isn't great, that obviously helps Nasimento. 126 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 4: And even if both guys are at their peak, I 127 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 4: would imagine Nasamano has a little bit more staying power, 128 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 4: he's carrying less weight, he's not swinging as hard. All 129 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 4: those things helped down the stretch. So personally, not betting 130 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 4: at pre fight if I had to, would be Nasimento. 131 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 4: Keep an eye on some live angles, but this I'm 132 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 4: excited to watch this one. 133 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 5: I just don't think it's a great one. 134 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 1: About on go to the welterweight, We've got Joachim Buckley 135 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: taking on Nurselton. Riziboyev is you is your fight of 136 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: the night. As far as the welterweight, what do we 137 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 1: make of the betting line here Zarillo with Buckley the favorite, 138 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: it minus one thirty five total rounds at one and 139 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: a half. Where would you urge people to check this fight? 140 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: As far as a betting angle. 141 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Buckley pre fight and Billy and I 142 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 3: are on opposite sides here, but I also like Buckley 143 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 3: live and I like his late props as well. To 144 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 3: win in round two about plus six hundred and round 145 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 3: three out about plus eight hundred. He is the more 146 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 3: experienced UFC fighter. We've seen Ziboyev coming too the UFC 147 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 3: knockout two opponents in the first round, and he has 148 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 3: ten consecutive round one finish But I do think he's 149 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 3: a bit of a can crusher, and I do think 150 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 3: he's a bit over fraud. We will find out as 151 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 3: he continues to move up the rankings, but I think 152 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: Buckley is a big step up in competition, and if 153 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 3: he's going to get Fraud checked, I think Buckley would 154 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 3: be the type of fighter to do it because he's 155 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 3: well rounded, he hits hard. He's going to be the 156 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 3: quicker athlete here. Ruzboiv is really big. He's six foot five. 157 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 3: He cuts a lot of weight to make walter weight. 158 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 3: It's also taking this fight on relatively short notice as well, 159 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 3: so we'll see how that impacts him. And in his 160 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 3: last fight against Tostricas Sumas, I bet on Dumas small 161 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 3: just because I think the line blew out ridiculously wide, 162 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 3: and he won via ipoke. I mean there was an 163 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 3: ipoke involved in the sequence. Maybe he wins the fight ultimately, 164 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 3: but there was an illegal strike or an illegal move 165 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 3: that led to the fight ending sequence. And there was 166 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 3: an illegal move in the michell Peira fight last week 167 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 3: as well that was not overturned by the judges. They 168 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 3: didn't even review the Dumas illegal poke. And then later 169 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 3: on the same card there was a fight that was 170 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 3: overturned I believe due to legal ipoke. So there was 171 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 3: just some rules in consistency. Dumas is not the best 172 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 3: person and I don't think there was extra motivation to 173 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 3: maybe save him from a potential loss there. But Buckley 174 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 3: is the hometown fighter in this matchup, He's gonna have 175 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 3: the crowd behind him. I think he has the speed advantage. 176 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: I think he has the cardio advantage, and I also think, 177 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: perhaps most importantly, he has the wrestling advantage and the 178 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: grappling upside in this fight. You see a number of 179 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 3: submission wins on Rouza Boyev's record. I don't think or 180 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 3: I think he has a legitimate submission skill set, but 181 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 3: I do think Buckley is the better wrestler and could 182 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 3: determine where the fight takes place, so Buckley down the 183 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 3: stretch is my preferred pick in this fight. I think 184 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 3: rouse Boyev has a good round one front load of success, 185 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 3: and then Buckley takes over. So I definitely want some 186 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 3: pre fight because I do think he can win the 187 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 3: first round, but I expect to find a better price 188 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 3: live on Buckley after round one, and then as I said, 189 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 3: I like his late props round two in round three 190 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 3: as well. 191 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: Billy, you're on the other side of this one. 192 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 4: I am, and you know, Teuan makes good points. We 193 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 4: truly don't know if Ruzaboyev is as good as he 194 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 4: was as he's looked so far. With that said, the 195 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 4: fight was definitely going his way against Youos. Anyway, that 196 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 4: wasn't like, you know, it wasn't that some guy was 197 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 4: dominating and then got I poked and turned around. 198 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 5: I do like that. 199 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 4: As a society though, we've just decided that if you 200 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 4: do something awesome enough, the rules don't apply to you 201 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 4: anymore in a UFC fight, which is cool. I appreciate that. 202 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 4: That would have been so sad for Michelle last week. Anyway, 203 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 4: getting back to this one, there's a couple of reasons. 204 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 4: I like Rusy Boy of here. They're both former middleweights. 205 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 4: They both cut a ton of weight, which is interesting. 206 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 4: I'm a little surprised that neither of them seemed to 207 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 4: have any struggle making weight. 208 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 5: They both came in well under. 209 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 4: The way Buckley's stand up works is he usually gets 210 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 4: to be the bigger, faster. 211 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 5: Guy and wins that way. With the striking. 212 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 4: Ruse A Boy has a massive reach outge Here we've 213 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 4: got the big cage because it's you know, in Saint Louis, 214 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 4: it's not in the Apex Center. If Ruse Boy can 215 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 4: keep his range a little bit and stay on the 216 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 4: outside and land some of those big left hands I 217 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 4: think that's going to help. 218 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 5: Him a lot here. 219 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 4: I believe, yeah, he's I'm sorry, Buckley is a south ball. 220 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 4: It's the opposite stance matchup, so big right hands for 221 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 4: ruse A boye on the poll counters. I'm also not 222 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 4: convinced that Buckley is the better grappler here. Ruse Boiev 223 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 4: is training with Anzol Gracie Philly, which has like all 224 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 4: the grapplers around that size all trained together there, which 225 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 4: is a huge benefit for ruz A boy of also, 226 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 4: you know, just the classic Eastern European former Soviet Republic 227 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 4: grappling style that we've come to know and love in 228 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 4: the UFC. I believe that will translate really well for him. 229 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 4: With all that said, if you were giving me Buckley 230 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 4: at plus money, I'd be on that side too. I 231 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 4: think this is a very close fight, but getting the 232 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 4: plus money on Ruzboiev is enough for me. Just given 233 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 4: the physical tools that he has, I think that will 234 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:34,959 Speaker 4: be the deciding factor here. 235 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: Okay, very good, so opposite sides of the spectrum, but 236 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: some potential live angles as well there from Zerillo on 237 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: Buckley after round one? What do we make of the 238 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: card for underdogs here? Gents, we'll start with Zerillo. 239 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 3: Well, Billy and I are going to go ahead to 240 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 3: hand on another fight here, and before we discuss that fight, 241 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 3: I actually want to start off by asking Billy, what 242 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 3: do you think about Alex Caserras this weekend? Because I 243 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,839 Speaker 3: struggle to handy cap Shawn Woodson fights. He's really long, 244 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 3: he's really tall, he's a big reach advantage over all 245 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 3: the fighters he faces, but he has no power in 246 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 3: his punches and he has a lot of volume. But 247 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 3: I think Casarus is the grappling upside and could potentially 248 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 3: get a rear naked choke via backpack. So I'm struggling 249 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 3: to see, like how Casarus wins the fight other than 250 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 3: that RNC backpack. But do you have any interest in 251 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 3: betting Alex Casarras at all? Because other than the fight 252 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 3: we're going to discuss, he's the one potential undergog that 253 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:26,839 Speaker 3: really popped out of me. 254 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 5: I do. 255 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 4: I've kind of started to lean that way after watching 256 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 4: some tape. I'm torn here a little bit. There's two things. 257 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 4: Alex Cassaris has the classic traditional martial arts kung fu 258 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 4: karate style. What works for those guys is when they 259 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 4: have space and time to set up and do their 260 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 4: spins and their lateral movement and all that stuff. Traditionally, though, 261 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 4: against a taller fighter, you want to be in close. 262 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 4: So it's creating this weird dynamic where Woodson has so 263 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 4: much height and length that in theory he wants to 264 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 4: be on the outside. 265 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 5: But if you wait on the outside. 266 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 4: For Bruce Leroy to do Bruce Leroy stuff, that's typically 267 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 4: not the way you want to fight him. You know, 268 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 4: Giga had much more success when he got in his face. 269 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 4: That's traditionally how it goes, So I am torn on that. 270 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 4: I kind of liked the career development we've seen out 271 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 4: of Cassiras with the wrestling that you mentioned. Given the 272 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 4: massive plus money, it's Cassiras or bust for me here. 273 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 4: Haven't pulled the trigger on it yet, but I'm definitely 274 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 4: leading that way. It is the two things I look 275 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 4: at with those traditional martial arts stylists are going in 276 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 4: opposite directions here, so I guess when you're getting plus money, 277 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 4: I'm a torn decision like that. It's probably the smart bat, 278 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 4: but I haven't been able to fully convince myself yet. 279 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 3: So the two underdogs that I am probably gonna find 280 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 3: a way to play, or at least one of them 281 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 3: I will find a way to play. But the other 282 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 3: is Carlos Diego Ferrara at plus four hundred. I just 283 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 3: think the line is getting a little bit crazy here. 284 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 3: This is a guy who's only lost to top ranked lightweights, 285 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 3: didn't look great in his last fight against Michael Johnson. 286 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 3: But I think there might be a chance to play 287 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 3: CDF by submission if you can get nice. I haven't 288 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 3: actually take it with the prop market for that fight, 289 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,079 Speaker 3: But I just think the line is blown out a 290 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 3: little too crazy considering the career history that this guy 291 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:07,080 Speaker 3: has and Rebectki is a great fighter, but he needs 292 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 3: the counter rapple here and strike. If he decides to 293 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,559 Speaker 3: get in a grappling match with Carlos Decaferra, he could 294 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 3: absolutely get submitted and put himself in danger. So just 295 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 3: something to watch out for in that fight. If there's 296 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 3: a big favorite who I think potentially chokes this weekend, 297 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 3: it could be Rebeccy just by nature of getting into 298 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 3: a grappling match with a grappler and not using his 299 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 3: grappling to stay on the feet and strike, which is 300 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 3: how he wins that fight clean and covers his price 301 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 3: tag skeep an eye on that one. The other matchup 302 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 3: where I will have bets while though courtez a Costa 303 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 3: at about plus two to ten, I want plus two 304 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 3: hundred or better against big boy Rebella's the Spain, the 305 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 3: silver medalist and taekwondo. Now we don't know very much 306 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 3: about the Spain. He had his first MMA fight last 307 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 3: at about around His last four fights have all ended 308 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 3: in eighteen seconds or less, so think about all of 309 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 3: the things that we don't know about Rebela's the Spain. 310 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 3: He has good, powerful kicks, seemingly he has powerful hands, 311 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 3: but we don't know about his durability, his cardio, his heart, 312 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 3: how his grappling looks when he's put on bottom, whether 313 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 3: he's able to offensively grapple. This is a guy who's 314 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 3: been trading MMA for about a year and not training 315 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 3: with one of the top gyms in Florida, training at 316 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 3: you know, lesser known Jim and Florida, not American top team, 317 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 3: not kill Cliff FC, so not training with the best 318 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 3: partners necessarily. And my hot take for this fight is 319 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 3: that Walder Cortesa Coosta is a better athlete and he's 320 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 3: not as big. You know, De Spain is a six 321 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 3: inch reach advantage. He's taller, he's the longest reach in 322 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 3: UFC history. But Cortesa Costa is a former baseball player, 323 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 3: and I just prefer his movement and quickness and footwork. 324 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 3: And this fight's going to take place in the bigger 325 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 3: cage in Saint Louis, not on the smaller cage in 326 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 3: the Apex, where De Spain is just going to immediately 327 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 3: be on top of you for testa coasts are really 328 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 3: good at working on the outside of the cage, using 329 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 3: that movement to pick upart opponents, and I think he's 330 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 3: going to do his best to play matador here and 331 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 3: try to tire out to Spain, who is very limited 332 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 3: MMA experience. We've only seen Waldoll lose in the UFC 333 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 3: when he's been out grappled. He was taken down by 334 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 3: Marcos Sergeria Delima. That was the decision that he lost. 335 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 3: Other than that, we've seen him very competitive and striking 336 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 3: fights and pretty durable to the head. I do think 337 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 3: he's open to get hit. I think De Spain will 338 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 3: have opportunities to close the show, but if he doesn't, 339 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 3: we have no idea what this guy looks like after 340 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 3: a few minutes. So why bets absolutely on Qurteza Costa 341 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 3: after round one, maybe even after three minutes three fight 342 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 3: plus two ton of the money line and then also 343 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 3: his round two prop at plus nine to fifty his 344 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 3: round three prop at plus sixteen hundred. Those are just 345 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 3: crazy numbers considering De Spain's never been at a round one. 346 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: And I'm seeing Acosta right now. There is a plus 347 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: two hundred plus two a five up. 348 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 3: In the market. 349 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 2: Right now. 350 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, plus two hundred or better. I'll take some small 351 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 3: pre fight. I'm gonna wait though this line open at 352 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 3: about minus one sixty for to spain out. I believe 353 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 3: Billy got in on the earlier side of this line. 354 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 3: It seemed all the way up now to minus two 355 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: to fifty or higher. And if you just look at 356 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 3: the line draft for the fight, it looks like it 357 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 3: might keep going up, especially at Waynes today when these 358 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 3: two stand next to each other and you see the 359 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: size advantage the spain has. I think there's a chance 360 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 3: it gets closer to minus three hundred. So I'm gonna 361 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 3: wait on Courtesa Coast, but I want plus two hundred ruder. 362 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast is presented by BETTMGM. Used Bonus 363 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: Code Action when signing up to get up to fifteen 364 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your first bet 365 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: does not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 366 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming, 367 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: bonus code action will give new users in North Carolina 368 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets for betting 369 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: just five dollars. Terms and conditions apply. It must be 370 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: twenty one or older. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. 371 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: Billy underdog in mind for you on this card for 372 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: UFC Fight Night, Saint Louis. 373 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm roll right through my underdog real quick and 374 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 4: then into props as well, since my prop is in 375 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 4: direct opposition to Sean, but perfect underdog one of the 376 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 4: underdogs I like, actually think it's a good card for underdogs. 377 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 4: Broadly speaking, we've all been on a few here. I 378 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 4: like Chase Hooper, Chase the Dream plus one twenty. 379 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 5: Love him at lightweight. 380 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 4: He was just so tall and skinny and lanky at 381 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 4: one forty five, which was great when he was just 382 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 4: doing jiu jitsu competitions, but then when guys could hit 383 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:23,880 Speaker 4: him or shove him against the fence, it didn't work 384 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 4: as well. 385 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 5: He's fighting Slava Claus. Slava Claus, high. 386 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 4: Volume striker, always in your face. Chase Hooper loves trip 387 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 4: takedowns and clinch stuff. It makes it really easy to 388 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 4: get those things when the guy's swarming you and getting 389 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 4: right up in the pocket the whole time. Slava clav 390 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 4: has been taken down in all but one UFC fight. 391 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 4: The only exception was Heiser Maher Schatte, who has never 392 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 4: taken down anyone nor even attempted it. So I think 393 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 4: this one does hit the mats. Very binary fight where 394 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 4: while striking Slava Claus should have a huge advantage on 395 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,640 Speaker 4: the mat, is Chase Hooper, who's an elite submission grappler 396 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 4: in his own right. If we think it's going to 397 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 4: hit the mat, you got to take Chase Hooper at 398 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 4: plus money. But to the fight, we really want to 399 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 4: talk about big boy versus SUSA boy, very good versus 400 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,679 Speaker 4: very bad nickname match up. It's crazy, I think to 401 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 4: say that Walder Corteza Costa is the better athlete. When 402 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 4: Despond was a silver medallist WCA had like a fifteen 403 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 4: ERA and two appearances for rookie ball with the Reds 404 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 4: before Bob's not out of baseball and finding his way 405 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 4: to MM so it's not like, you know, huge. 406 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 5: Athletic pedigree here. 407 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 4: I do agree, though I would not take de Spawn's 408 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 4: money line as far as it's gotten. I put in 409 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 4: my look, I'm looking actively looking for an opportunity to 410 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 4: fade him. I took Parisian by submission at like plus 411 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 4: two thousand, just as a little sprinkle last time. He's 412 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 4: gonna get exposed here as soon as he fights. There's 413 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 4: kind of two heavyweight divisions. There's the real good guys 414 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 4: that there's seven or eight of him, and then there's 415 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,479 Speaker 4: everyone else, which is just either big athletic guys who 416 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 4: aren't that skilled, or very skilled guys who are bad athletes, 417 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 4: or some combination of the two. I just don't think 418 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 4: Cortez Acosta has the skill set to do it. He 419 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 4: gets by on beating these other people, by being the 420 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 4: better striker and by being faster and just being a 421 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 4: generally better athlete. 422 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 5: I don't think he has any of that against Spain. Obviously. 423 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 4: Now at this point, the money line's gone so far. 424 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 4: If I had to pick a money line side, I 425 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,719 Speaker 4: would go with Zerrillo. I might even arbitrage out of 426 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 4: my position because I got big Boy at minus one 427 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 4: seventy five, so I could get locked in a profit there. 428 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 4: Despawn Ko is minus one sixty five. That should just 429 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 4: be his money line. He's not gonna win a decision 430 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 4: outside of some crazy club and sub where cortez A 431 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 4: Costa taps while being hit or something. He's not gonna 432 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 4: win a submission. The discrepancy there is absolutely crazy to me. 433 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 4: Probably doesn't have great cardio. Taekwondo fights are shorter and 434 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 4: less taxing. We know he doesn't grapple at all. Why 435 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 4: would it be this big of a gap. I don't 436 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 4: know if books just haven't adjusted the knockout prop up 437 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 4: as the money line has came up or what, But 438 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 4: that feels like an obvious choice. And you could even 439 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 4: do despawn KO at minus one sixty five and then 440 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,199 Speaker 4: cortez A Costa's money line and arbitrage a profit that 441 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 4: way too. So if you're playing to spawn gotta be 442 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 4: Ko well of cortez A Costa, you could even do 443 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 4: live just wait like a minute, just make sure he 444 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 4: doesn't get starts thirty seconds in and go that way 445 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 4: too and probably arbitrage both sides. So there's a lot 446 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 4: of way just to play it, even if neither of 447 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 4: us have convinced you where you're fairly safe to make 448 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 4: a profit either way. 449 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the spawned Ko and Portesa cost 450 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 3: the money line is actually very interesting discrepancy in price. 451 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:27,160 Speaker 3: You got a fifty cent are there, And I really 452 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 3: don't despawn winning other than by knockout, and I wouldn't 453 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 3: lay minus one sixty personally, but given the discrepancy there, 454 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 3: that is an interesting way of playing things. I don't 455 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 3: like playing both sides of fights really, you know, and 456 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 3: trying to take props on both sides or winning methods 457 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 3: on both sides, but this one seems kind of binary 458 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 3: that if the spawn doesn't get the KO, I don't 459 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 3: see how he wins. So very very interesting and potentially 460 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 3: funny fight as well. This might end via a hilarious 461 00:20:55,000 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 3: quick knockout or potentially see to spawn like death gasing 462 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 3: in round two. And I really like the courts as 463 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 3: a cost of round two of plus nine point fifty 464 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 3: in round three plus sixteen hundred, I think he should 465 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 3: have a severe cardio edge over the final ten minutes. 466 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 3: He's heavyweight, he does. 467 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 4: I agree with you on the cardio angle, but we 468 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 4: we might not have time for it to get to 469 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 4: round two, like it seems like de spawn my if 470 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 4: he doesn't knock him out in the first minute, that 471 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 4: might be when the gas comes. 472 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:27,959 Speaker 5: So that's why I like to live a little bit 473 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 5: better if you're. 474 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 4: Thinking along those lines, just because that way you can 475 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 4: actually get it in. And I also agree with you. 476 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 4: I almost never played both sides. I might hear just 477 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 4: because I got such good CLV on the despawn play earlier. 478 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 4: Cancel that out with a little bit of profit on 479 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 4: the arbitrage, and then take the despawn ko at a 480 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 4: even better price. 481 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 5: Probably what I'll end up doing here. 482 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 4: Obviously that's not actionable if you didn't read my luck 483 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 4: ratings and jump in early. 484 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 5: So yeah, take that forth. 485 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 1: Okay, Zilla, how about you When it comes to props, 486 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 1: we just got Billy's underdog, which transitioned well into his 487 00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: prop play. 488 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, another underdog, Charles Johnson by decision here plus two twenty. 489 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 3: I got plus two twenty last night. I think it 490 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 3: was plus two hundred this morning. That's fine for me. 491 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 3: Plus two hundred or better. This fight is minus two 492 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 3: twenty five to go to a decision. Johnson is the underdog, 493 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 3: but he is the hometown fighter, and he's the more 494 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 3: active striker with higher output in this matchup. Jake Hatley 495 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 3: European grappler or British grappler. Those typically don't translate as 496 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 3: well to the UFC. Just stylistically, he will go for 497 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 3: submission attempts. I don't think those are going to score 498 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 3: as well with the judges as Johnson strikes. Johnson very 499 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 3: good at scrambling. I think he will win the scrambling 500 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 3: in this fight and ultimately pull out the scorecards. So 501 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 3: Charles Johnson by decision plus two hundred or better, and 502 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 3: then Esteban Ribevich round two or round three plus six 503 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 3: fifty and plus fifteen hundred, respectively, going against Terrence McKinney, 504 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 3: who's always a hot starter. McKinney wins a lot of 505 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 3: fights in round one and then his cardio falls off 506 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 3: of a cliff. We've seen it consistently. Sometimes he doesn't 507 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 3: even make it out of round one. He's done by 508 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 3: the end of five minutes, and he ends up getting finished. 509 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 3: But he has been finished twice in round two in 510 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 3: the UFC. I actually think there's a chance this fight 511 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 3: makes it all the way to round three, though, just 512 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 3: because Rubovich is so common there, he's actually kind of 513 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 3: content to lose round one. I am betting Rubevich small 514 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 3: prefight in the event that he wins the fight at 515 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 3: the end of round one projected his money line closer 516 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 3: to minds two hundred and gets a minus one sixty 517 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 3: out there. So I bet that small. But I prefers 518 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 3: round two in round three props, and I'd prefer the 519 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 3: live angle just because he's content to lose round one. 520 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 3: He's going to let McKinney take him down, probably get 521 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 3: the back, but hol Sty calm there. He'll fight the hands, 522 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 3: defend those submission attempts, survive to round two, and then 523 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 3: you're going to see a completely different mentality from him 524 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 3: when that clock starts for round two. So Esteban Rubovich 525 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 3: round two plus six fifty, round three plus fifteen hundred 526 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 3: on top of some money line and a live vet 527 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 3: as well. 528 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: Ribovich round two plus still plus six fifty, the round 529 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: three numbers come down to twelve to one. 530 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fine, It just small, you know it's I 531 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 3: would put like you knowero point two on the you 532 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 3: know again, double your stake on the round two prop 533 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 3: versus the round three prop, as I mentioned earlier with 534 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 3: the Lewis fight, just so you're weighted about the same. 535 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 3: In the event that either one of them hit, you 536 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 3: would take home roughly the same profit. 537 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: Okay, excellent. Let's wrap it with best bets or a 538 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: final bet for the UFC fight Night card Zilla. You're 539 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 1: going to a money line side here. 540 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, as the best bet Trey Waters at minus one, 541 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:27,160 Speaker 3: sixty seventy years younger, seven inches taller, five inch reach 542 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 3: advantage here over Billy Goff, who largely has won two 543 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 3: UFC fights on durability and toughness, and Waters lost his 544 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 3: only MMA about by getting out grapple. That's not going 545 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,439 Speaker 3: to happen here. This is going to be a striker 546 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 3: versus striker matchup where Waters has way more physical tools. 547 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 3: Huge as I said, huge reach and head advantage, but 548 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 3: also he really fights well using his link. He fights 549 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 3: behind a long jab. There's a lot of fighters who 550 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,399 Speaker 3: have a big reach advantage and don't necessarily make the 551 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 3: most of it. Trey Waters knows how to optimize his 552 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 3: skill set and his high and outside of getting chaoed 553 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 3: by Goff, who I said, just has like that dog 554 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,199 Speaker 3: in his heart. You know, it's the meme that you 555 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 3: see on Twitter all the time that is Goff's fighting style. 556 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 3: And beyond that, Water seemingly hasn't covered in this matchup. 557 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 3: So a lot of respect for Billy goff This could 558 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 3: be a potential fight of the night. These two may 559 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,160 Speaker 3: slug it out, but I like Waters to take it home. 560 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 1: We'll have to see if you put together your own 561 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: rendition of the meme after this one concludes on us. 562 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 3: Certainly not. I don't want to see that dog for 563 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 3: Billy Goffin, that's true. I hope he's got you know, 564 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 3: the teeny tiny chihuahua on Saturday Night. 565 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: All right, Billy, you've got two more for us, two 566 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: best bets. 567 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, one also plays in with the proper didn't get 568 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 4: too yet. I like Tabitha Ricci's money line at minus 569 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 4: one forty here. I just think she's fighting Tsha Torrez 570 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 4: or Tsha Pennington, depending on what sportsbook you're looking at. 571 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 4: I think this would be about the line, or this 572 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 4: would be about a fair line under normal circumstances. This 573 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 4: is the first fight back for Tisha Pennington after giving 574 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 4: birth to a child, and the stats on that for 575 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 4: women is not great for obvious reasons like it's hard 576 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 4: to do, you're taking a long break off, also kind 577 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 4: of getting older by fighter standards, So I don't like 578 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,679 Speaker 4: that long of her break. Once you get up there, 579 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 4: in age that makes it a little bit harder. 580 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 5: Let me check. 581 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 4: She thirty four, so not horrible, but a thirty four 582 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 4: year old one hundred and fifteen pounder is like a 583 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 4: fifty five year old heavyweight or something. 584 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 5: So there's that angle. 585 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, and Tabitha Ricci, this would be about the line 586 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 4: I would have her at if all things were normal 587 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 4: and this was still prime. T Scher Torres, Ricci's only 588 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,239 Speaker 4: lost since her debut. She took her debut up at 589 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 4: one twenty five and popman on Fuoro on short notice 590 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 4: natural one to fifteen er. Only loss since then was 591 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 4: a split decision where t Scher Torres is I don't 592 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 4: know about roughly five hundred in the UFC, a little 593 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 4: bit better than nine and six long UFC career, but 594 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 4: hasn't manished great lately. 595 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 5: And then I also liked Tabitha Ricci to finish this fight. 596 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 4: At plus four hundred, that's just really long odds for 597 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 4: anyone to finish the fight, especially when they're somewhat favored. 598 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 4: She has excellent submisson, excellent takedowns. She's got a black 599 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 4: belt in jiu jitsu and judo, so she has a 600 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 4: way to get the fight to the matt and a 601 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 4: way to finish when it's there. I think a little 602 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 4: bit underrated power as well. For Ricci got a couple 603 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 4: of knockout wins on her record, so there's that angle. 604 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 5: Then. 605 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 4: I also like Matas Shronbatski at minus one forty Matas 606 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 4: tron Beski inside the distance at minus one forty. Seant 607 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 4: alluded to this a little bit earlier with one of 608 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 4: his picks, But I do think Rombski needs the power 609 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,439 Speaker 4: and needs the finish against Diego Feda another one of 610 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 4: those where the discrepancy between that and his massive money 611 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 4: line just don't make a lot of sense to me. 612 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 4: So if you're going to take the Mattas Trombski side 613 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,680 Speaker 4: almost certainly needs a finish here. If we think he's 614 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 4: going to struggle with the grappling on the ground of 615 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 4: Diego Fajedo, which is not an unreasonable thought. 616 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 3: To have, well, I mean he's he's also eight years younger. 617 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 5: You know. 618 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 3: I regularly discuss how fighters, especially you know, one hundred 619 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 3: and seventy five pounds or one hundred seventy pounds or 620 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 3: below or underrated when they're seven to eight years younger. 621 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 3: I talked about it with Trey Waters, but I mean 622 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,879 Speaker 3: I absolutely agree, like he should finish the fight. He 623 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 3: just needs to counter grapple. Like, just don't don't get 624 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 3: sucked into a grappling fight with the guy who wants 625 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 3: to grapple and is probably better submission grappler than you. 626 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 3: That's just like the approach I want to see him 627 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 3: take to believe that he has the fight IQ to 628 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,160 Speaker 3: potentially compete with higher level fighters. It's a dangerous fight. 629 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 3: I think it's a much more dangerous fight than the 630 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 3: money line indicates. I'm not necessarily sure if I'm taking CDF. 631 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,439 Speaker 3: If I do, I'll probably take him by submission. But like, 632 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 3: it's just like a spot where I don't want to 633 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 3: see him grapple to know that he has the fight 634 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 3: IQ to compete at the highest levels. El I had 635 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 3: a question for you regarding Tabitha Ricci. So she's friends 636 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 3: training partners with Mackenzie Dern. They're not going to fight, 637 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 3: but if they did fight, you would favor Ricci. 638 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 4: Right, that's closer because Ricchie wants to grapple. Darren really 639 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 4: wants to grapple but has no takedown. So does Ricchie 640 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 4: then put herself in a band situation. 641 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 5: I don't. I think this latest version. 642 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 4: We've seen of Mackenzie Dern where she's not looked great 643 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 4: the last couple would have me favoring Ricci. 644 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 5: But it'd be close. 645 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 4: It would it'd be a close for I had to 646 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 4: be fun Stylistically, I think Riccie just kind of out 647 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 4: of force a Habit would turn it into a grappling match, 648 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 4: which might not work for her. If you could get 649 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 4: decent plus money on either side, I'd probably take it, but. 650 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 3: You know, yeah, The reason I ask is that was Torres' 651 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 3: or pennington last fight was against Mackenzie Durn two years ago. 652 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 3: She lost by split. It was a close fight. Dern 653 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 3: got the bat, so Torres Pennington denied all of the 654 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 3: takedown attempts then doesn't have great takedowns, but Durren found 655 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 3: the back for significant portions of that bite. She was 656 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 3: also winning striking on the feet too, So I think 657 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 3: it was very interesting that I probably consider Ricchie a 658 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 3: better striker than Dern. Maybe don't give her his high 659 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 3: level finishing upside with her submission ability, but I kind 660 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 3: of prefer her takedown game as well, and I just 661 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 3: think she has better tools, maybe against Torres, and we're 662 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 3: seeing Torres coming back from a two year layoff. Having 663 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 3: a kid does kind of seem like reach your pass 664 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 3: also in the age discrepancy in this division. So yeah, 665 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 3: I've I haven't really bet on Tabitharicci much. I know 666 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 3: she gets a lot of love from the MMA betting community. 667 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 3: She seems like a cool fighter, But yeah, I just 668 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 3: I've been aligned. I guessed her. I don't really have 669 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 3: a strong opinion on her relative to the odds she's 670 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 3: been given, and we'll see if that changes as she 671 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 3: continues to move up the rankings. I don't know what 672 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,440 Speaker 3: her ceiling ultimately is. I don't know if she's a 673 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 3: future champion, but it does seem like she keeps getting 674 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 3: favored and getting a lot of betting support in these fights. 675 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 4: I could be wrong on this, but I think it 676 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 4: might have been Mackenzie Dern's fight back from pregnancy when 677 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 4: she fought t Shirts as well, or like two fights back. 678 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 4: So when we've got one woman in that fight who 679 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 4: was at a disadvantage because of it, now that shifts 680 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 4: to the other one. That also I think plays into 681 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 4: that a little bit. I could be wrong, it's obviously 682 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 4: it doesn't show on topology or whatever when that gap was, 683 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 4: and Darren didn't take that long of a gap like 684 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 4: I believe the story was she was feeding her daughter 685 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,320 Speaker 4: like backstage right before they called her name. 686 00:30:58,160 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 5: To go out there. 687 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 4: So obviously that that was an ideal for Dern. But 688 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 4: Pennington doesn't have this situation going on still. You know, 689 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 4: obviously many months off of training, many months trying to. 690 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 5: Get the body back, all those other things that make 691 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 5: it difficult. 692 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 3: She also submitted Nina Nuna as when Nina was coming 693 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 3: back from her first fight after having a kid as well. 694 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 3: So I don't know if the UFC like tries to 695 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,479 Speaker 3: give every woman's fighter on the card at least one 696 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 3: opponent coming back from having a kid, But there seems 697 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 3: to be some sort of like trade off going on there. 698 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 4: Well, if you do it, then you get one, you 699 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 4: get one on the other end, it seems to be 700 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 4: the right if you take them back. 701 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 1: Dana White wants to keep pumping out kids. 702 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 5: You'll be rewarded. 703 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 3: It's the future of the division. You know, you're producing 704 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 3: future UFC stars. 705 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 1: That is going to do it for our UFC betting 706 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,240 Speaker 1: preview UFC Fight Night in Saint Louis at the Enterprise Center. 707 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 1: Prelims started for Eastern Main card at seven Eastern, available 708 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: on ESPN, ESPN Plus thanks to Billy Ward and Shanzillo. 709 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 1: You can find them both of the Action Network app. 710 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network 711 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 1: app if you have not done so already. All Right, 712 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 1: that's it, best of luck this weekend. We'll see you 713 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 1: next time. Here for a UFC betting preview on the 714 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast presented by BETMGM Good Luck. Action Network 715 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you 716 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty 717 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler