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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go fifteen Cundy, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty and.

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Speaker 3: The Kickers block Book College Football World Standard good Bye,

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and football it's the lateral.

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Speaker 2: Turn, a corner of the job. Get you the lad.

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Speaker 3: Table up the fail to night. It's not the size

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Speaker 3: of the dog in the fighting, it's the size of

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Speaker 3: the fight in the hall.

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Speaker 2: What's up, Degenerate Nation, Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the Week three college football betting preview,

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Speaker 2: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm stucky and with

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Speaker 2: me as always is Colin Wilson. Two weeks in a

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Speaker 2: row because of the NFL without college football on a Thursday,

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Speaker 2: but next week we do. We have a little West

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Speaker 2: Virginia VA Tech Coastal Georgia State, so some not the

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Speaker 2: most exciting games, but weekday college will be back. But

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Speaker 2: for now, it's on to Week three. We'll cover Friday

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Speaker 2: night lights here in just a second, and then get

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Speaker 2: to a number of marquee games and just a bunch

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Speaker 2: of others thereafter. Even some FCS or no makes its return.

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Speaker 2: This week, we'll talk about some FCS games, but I'm

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Speaker 2: excited to dive in Colin. You're ready to roll.

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Speaker 3: Well, there's particularly one FCS game that I've really got

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Speaker 3: my eye on. But to say that, you know, we

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Speaker 3: might not have an exciting slate, I've never saying that

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Speaker 3: again after last week. Last week we thought, yeah, there's

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Speaker 3: one good game. At the beginning, there's kind of a lull.

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Speaker 3: The whole entire day was chaos, and I'm I'm wondering

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Speaker 3: if that's what college football is going to be this year.

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Speaker 3: You know, you and I talked in the summer about

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Speaker 3: how are we going to find two other teams to

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Speaker 3: go to the College for Ball playoff. We're about one

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Speaker 3: or two weeks away from thinking maybe twelve teams could

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Speaker 3: go to the playoffs. So I'm looking forward and I'm

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Speaker 3: ready to go.

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Speaker 2: Well, the reason I wanted to bring back the FCS

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Speaker 2: or nose segment this year, by the way, is last

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Speaker 2: week in Week three, because Week three generally doesn't look

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Speaker 2: great on paper. We're gonna have some pretty good matchups

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Speaker 2: this week, but just overall, but last year you had

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Speaker 2: Florida State go down to Jacksonville State and the Hail Mary.

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Speaker 2: They were twenty eight point favorites. You had a Kentucky

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Speaker 2: team is a thirty three point favorite, down by four

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter against Chattanooga at home. There's gonna

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Speaker 2: be some scares that you don't expect. Last weekend was awesome.

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Speaker 2: I'm not down in college football this year. Also, Arizona

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Speaker 2: lost his four touchdown favorites, so winless Northern Arizona Sea.

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Speaker 2: Now the big step up this week is North Dakota State.

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Speaker 2: But let's hop right in. We'll start with Friday night lights.

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Speaker 3: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

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Speaker 2: Let's go play some fall quick caveat. I gave this

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Speaker 2: on the NFL. I said this on the NFL podcast too.

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Speaker 2: This is only week three, so a lot of what

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be talking about, I'm not really going to

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Speaker 2: dive too much into advanced statistics, and because there's just

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Speaker 2: not a lot of data that we have right now,

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Speaker 2: not a lot of reliable data. And even if you

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Speaker 2: adjusted for opponent, there's just so much noise. So a

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Speaker 2: lot of this what this comes down to is, Okay,

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Speaker 2: how much are you sticking to your priors? How much

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Speaker 2: have you adjusted teams? What is the spot. How do

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Speaker 2: these teams match up? So we'll start Friday night. By

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Speaker 2: the way, actionework dot com. The Action of Work app

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Speaker 2: at Stucky two on Twitter. Link in my profile if

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Speaker 2: you don't know how to find it, but you can

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Speaker 2: follow all of our bets there. If you want to

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Speaker 2: read the preview for Air Force Wyoming, we'll have something up,

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Speaker 2: but we're going to cover Florida State. Louisville, Florida State

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Speaker 2: two and a half point favor at Louisville over under

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Speaker 2: fifty seven. This game is seven thirty Eastern on ESPN.

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Speaker 2: You know interesting. Louisville is an interesting case study because

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Speaker 2: they looked horrendous against Syracuse and the acc opener on

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Speaker 2: the road, and then they went on the road again

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Speaker 2: and played UCF. The offense didn't look great, but the

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Speaker 2: defense man it look much. I thought that it was

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Speaker 2: going to be improved this year, and it started off rough,

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Speaker 2: and then I think they got ten stops in a

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Speaker 2: row against UCF. The problem is UCF's offense is very,

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Speaker 2: very dependent on Johnnery's Plumbly running, and louisill figure that

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Speaker 2: out and just started run blitzing on early downs and

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Speaker 2: Plumbly can't throw it on the other end, you know,

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Speaker 2: not the team they play this week. They're playing a

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Speaker 2: capable dual threat quarterback, and both teams have seen dual

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Speaker 2: threat quarterbacks so far this year. But it looks like

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Speaker 2: Florida State's passing game under Norvell's now improved, which Louisville

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Speaker 2: will have to deal with because you don't really have

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Speaker 2: to deal with that much against UCF. So the question

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Speaker 2: here is I've upgraded Florida State some. You know, they

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Speaker 2: played Ducaine, who cares, But then you know they've won

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Speaker 2: basically a road game at LSU. But what I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to figure out here a great spot for Louil b

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Speaker 2: at home. They play really cunning, him plays really well home.

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Speaker 2: He's had a lot of success against this Florida State team.

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Speaker 2: What I'm trying to figure out is, all right, is

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Speaker 2: Florida State that much improved or was that more of

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Speaker 2: a product of some dysfunction and injury situation at LSU?

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Speaker 2: Right offensive line situation was bad, Louisville's offensive lines in

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Speaker 2: better shape, They had their best defensive line and go

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Speaker 2: down to injury. They muffed some punts. So I'm a

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Speaker 2: little hesitant with Florida state with the Florida State is

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Speaker 2: back take. But so if this gets the three, I

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Speaker 2: think I'll have to take Louisville flat three. I also

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Speaker 2: might just wait to bet this live like I did

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Speaker 2: with Louisville UCF last week when UCF went up seven

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Speaker 2: to nothing. What do you see here for the Friday

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Speaker 2: night Lights prime time that matchup. Yeah, it did pop.

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Speaker 3: At three at bet MGM for just a few hours,

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Speaker 3: and so that was the number that I was looking for.

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Speaker 3: And you know, if you use our Action Labs tools,

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Speaker 3: you can set line watcher on a number of books

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Speaker 3: and find out when something goes and you can go

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Speaker 3: and hit it. And then you got the number. And

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Speaker 3: I didn't know it was going to come all the

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Speaker 3: way back down. But I'm happy with my three. It's

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Speaker 3: a game, you know, a loosely power rate at three

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Speaker 3: and a half because we've kind of seen two different

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Speaker 3: Louisville teams to this point. All the first couple drives

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Speaker 3: from UCF looked like they were gonna run away with

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Speaker 3: the game. Some bad miss tackles, a lot of bad

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Speaker 3: Louisville penalties, which this team is just cannot get out

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Speaker 3: of their own way when it comes to the flags.

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Speaker 3: But you know everyone's going to have the Florida State

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Speaker 3: game against LSU fresh in their memory and think that

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Speaker 3: this is going to be, you know, the team that

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Speaker 3: shows up here at Louisville, which is just going to

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Speaker 3: have a really hot crowd. Two quarterbacks that can scoot

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Speaker 3: outside the pocket. Jordan Travis. He's only had a few

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Speaker 3: designed yards this season, so his runs have really been

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Speaker 3: some scrambles. And you know, tackling is the most important

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Speaker 3: aspect of this game when it comes to Malie Cunningham

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Speaker 3: and Travis once they get out of the pocket. And

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Speaker 3: that scares me having a Louisville toke because there one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twentieth and tackling so far, and Florida State's

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Speaker 3: sort of mid FBS. It's sixty eight. Floridas A definitely

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Speaker 3: has the advantage with some running backs to Seawan Ward,

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Speaker 3: Tray Benson. I mean, Benson is five point three yards

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Speaker 3: after contact, So if Louisville's not tackling, they don't have

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Speaker 3: that energy that Satderfield was talking about. You know, Florida

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Speaker 3: State's going to some explosive plays, But I go back

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Speaker 3: to one big thing stuck, and that is Jaden Daniels

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Speaker 3: in the opener had eight scrambles for one hundred and

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Speaker 3: nine yards. I love the Florida State defensive line. They

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Speaker 3: got pressure, they can do things on defense. But Daniels

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Speaker 3: had eighty four yards after contact one hundred and nine

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Speaker 3: total on eight scrambles. Florida State is one hundred and

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Speaker 3: seventeenth in defensive rush EPA. I know it's early, we

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Speaker 3: have two data points. They're going to give up explosive

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Speaker 3: runs and that's not good. So I'm going to take

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Speaker 3: Louisville at the three. I think we will see a

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Speaker 3: three pop again before we get to kick, and I

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Speaker 3: might buy back live on Florida State because I don't

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Speaker 3: trust Louisville from the aspect of penalty flags and for

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Speaker 3: some reason they just go blank on tackling.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they also blew a ton of leads last year,

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Speaker 2: so it was it was promising to at least see them,

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Speaker 2: you know, shut down UCF and hold on to that game.

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Speaker 2: In the second half, Oho, they had to get a

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Speaker 2: goal line stop and you know, they kind of just

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Speaker 2: figured out, I mean they went forward at midfield. It

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Speaker 2: almost did give away the game. So maybe those problems

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Speaker 2: are still but it remains to be seen if Jordan

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Speaker 2: Travis is improved as a passer, but it does help

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Speaker 2: that Louisville saw, you know, Plumbly and Shrader two quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: that our dual threat can run a little bit, so

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Speaker 2: you would think that they would learn from that. By

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Speaker 2: the way, speaking of which, this is kind of another

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Speaker 2: a potential feather in the cap of Louisville. I guess

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Speaker 2: we'll just cover this game right now on Saturday before

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Speaker 2: we get to the Marquee games. Is Syracuse perdue?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I mean Syracuse could be one of the most I

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Speaker 2: was down on them comping they could be one of

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Speaker 2: the most improved teams in the country based on some

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Speaker 2: data so far and what I've seen. And one of

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Speaker 2: the main reasons that I've had the biggest, kind of

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest turnarounds on any team so far,

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Speaker 2: which could change. Again, it's only two games in and

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Speaker 2: one of them was against Connecticut. The fact that Trader

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Speaker 2: looks comfortable throwing the ball, so he was twenty of

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Speaker 2: twenty three for three hundred yards against Connecticut, eighteen of

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Speaker 2: twenty five for two hundred and thirty six yards against Louisville.

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Speaker 2: Five touchdowns, no picks, and you know, they bring in

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Speaker 2: Robert and A, the offensive coordinator, highly respected from Virginia,

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Speaker 2: Virginia's offense to stall off at Cliff by the way,

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Speaker 2: but they also have zero offensive line and another thing.

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Speaker 2: Another guy that they brought in who not many people

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Speaker 2: were talking about is Jason Beck, to quarterbacks coach who

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Speaker 2: coached Renden Armstrong. He's coached a number of other high

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Speaker 2: profile quarterbacks, work with some NFL quarterbacks, higher respected quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: coach where I was reading the summer that Trader's mechanics

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Speaker 2: and footwork were exponentially better and he actually can throw

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Speaker 2: the football. Now, that was my biggest doubt with this

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Speaker 2: Syracuse offense that it wasn't going to fit a quarterback

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Speaker 2: who can't throw it, and so far he's shown a

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Speaker 2: massive improvement just statistically what I've watched. So that raises

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Speaker 2: the ceiling of this Syracuse offense so much because you

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Speaker 2: have one of the best running backs in the country

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Speaker 2: of a quarterback who can really run it, and the

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Speaker 2: defensive line is held up with that was the biggest question.

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Speaker 2: The back seven still can but Purdue can't really run

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Speaker 2: the ball, and so I think that plays into the

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Speaker 2: hands of Syracuse. O'Connell might have some success throwing against

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Speaker 2: the zone, but I still don't think the market has

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Speaker 2: caught up to Syracuse and this new offensive traders improvement.

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Speaker 2: So I like the Orange here to start off three

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Speaker 2: and zero and continue a resurgence at babers A La

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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, like he gets on the hot seat and

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Speaker 2: then just has one of these resurgent years. You agree that, right,

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah.

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Speaker 3: I'm not fading. Syracuse is here. I saw you and

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Speaker 3: I put it in at the same time. I was

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Speaker 3: I better get this money because I think Syracuse is

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Speaker 3: going to be moving. But one thing outside of the

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Speaker 3: spreadsheets and the analytics to pay attention to. Louisville legitimately

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Speaker 3: said that the Carrier Dome was so loud that Mallie

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Speaker 3: Cunningham could not tell the offensive line any changes, any audibles.

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Speaker 3: He couldn't get any messages out to his wide receivers.

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Speaker 3: Perdue throws sixty percent of their snaps with Aidan O'Connell,

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Speaker 3: and right now the Orange are thirty fourth in coverage.

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Speaker 3: But if O'Connell is not able to relay any audibles

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Speaker 3: or any changes at the line of scrimmage, that works

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Speaker 3: in the favor of Syracuse right now. And you know

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Speaker 3: Syracuse on the on their offensive side, they run on

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Speaker 3: sixty three percent of downs, and with dark horse Heisman

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Speaker 3: candidate Sean Tucker, who I'm convinced if he was on

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Speaker 3: a playoff contending team would be up there for the Heisman,

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Speaker 3: you know they're gonna be able to run all over Purdue. There.

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Speaker 3: There's sixty six in line yards, which is mid FBS,

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Speaker 3: but that comes against Penn State in Indiana State, and

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Speaker 3: Penn State's not really known for their heavy ground attack.

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Speaker 3: You know, Syracuse is going to stay in standard downs

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Speaker 3: all day. They're going to drink clock. Garrett Trader has

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Speaker 3: just been absolutely fantastic. The Orange a now a top

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Speaker 3: thirty pass unit. I just don't think that, you know,

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Speaker 3: I think that Louisville complaints about how loud it was

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Speaker 3: in there, I don't think that was a fluke whatsoever.

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Speaker 3: I would not back a heavy passing visitor in that

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Speaker 3: building right now against a very improved Syracuse defense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, Charlie Jones for Purdue, who leads

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Speaker 2: a team of two hundred and eighty six yards receiving,

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Speaker 2: I think the next best is like fifty yards pretty

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Speaker 2: wilds the next element. Yeah, he's he's an Iowa transfer.

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Speaker 2: He has two hundred eighty six yards receiving. It's more

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Speaker 2: than the entire Iowa passing offense combined through two games.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree there. And by the way, college

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Speaker 2: basketball is back in college football. You're gonna have Syracuse

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Speaker 2: go trying to go three and oh in a packed house.

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Speaker 2: Duke sold out for nc A and t at home.

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Speaker 2: Duke is back. Kansas is two and oh Kentucky at

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, I mean Indiana's two and oh? What the

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Speaker 2: hell is going on? Hey?

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Speaker 3: Wait, wait, wait, wait wait, you're not going to make

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Speaker 3: any comment about the couple dimes I brought home on

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Speaker 3: Arkansas is also two and oh on their eight no arc.

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Speaker 2: Someone brought this up. Someone said what about Arkansas? And

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Speaker 2: I said, once you get your second national title in

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Speaker 2: college basketball, then you can you submit your application to

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Speaker 2: me and we will US basketball school representatives will consider

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Speaker 2: you to be including the group. But until then, you

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Speaker 2: are eating lunch with the other baseball schools. All right,

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Speaker 2: do you have any idea?

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Speaker 3: Do you how disrespectful that is?

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Speaker 2: Let's move on. Maybe you can get a College World

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Speaker 2: Series one of these years, one of these years for

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Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll see I'm sure we'll see a future

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Speaker 2: next year Colum will retire the year that Utah wins

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Speaker 2: the National Championship if at that same year that Arkansas

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Speaker 2: wins the College World Series. Can we get a good

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Speaker 2: wu pig suy from you page? See?

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Speaker 3: There you go?

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Speaker 2: How's that? All right? Let's move on to the marquee

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Speaker 2: games of the day.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups. We'll all end up bedding for Week three.

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Speaker 2: All right, so let's talk marquee games of Saturday. I

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Speaker 2: debated throwing this one off the start. We got five

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Speaker 2: on the list, but then I said, look, it starts

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Speaker 2: at noon. Everyone's gonna be watching. There's a lot of

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Speaker 2: intrigue around Nebraska and what's gonna go on. So we're

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Speaker 2: gonna start with Nebraska. Oklahoma. Scott is a eleven and

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Speaker 2: a half point home dog last I checked. Think that

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Speaker 2: line is going to keep coming down. Wouldn't be shocked

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Speaker 2: if it crosses ten. This game opened at over fifteen.

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Speaker 2: I was tweeted. I was like, this is crazy. Over

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Speaker 2: under six up to sixty six. Scott Frost obviously gone

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Speaker 2: Nebraska off an embarrassing home upset against Georgia Southern. Just

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Speaker 2: to start, I love Nebraska or anything. Double digits is fine.

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Speaker 2: Before the season started, I had Nebraska favored in this game.

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Speaker 2: Then a week ago we talked to this earlier the

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Speaker 2: week on the new BCS podcast look at Him was five.

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Speaker 2: And now you're up two touchdowns and still double digits.

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Speaker 2: I think that's way too high. You should get a

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Speaker 2: spirited effort here from the Braska at home after an

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Speaker 2: embarrassing loss. And by the way, obviously I was a

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Speaker 2: downgrade in Nebraska, but Oklahoma talked about this earlier in

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Speaker 2: the week. They were they were up three to nothing

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Speaker 2: towards the end of the first half against Kent State

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Speaker 2: UTEP wasn't overly impressive that win. So like they've been

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Speaker 2: better than Nebraska compared to expectations. But again, this is

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Speaker 2: what we expected from Nebraska under Scott Frost. They just

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Speaker 2: flop his favorites and they thrived in this role as

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Speaker 2: an underdog. So I like Nebraska here. The biggest question

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Speaker 2: is their defense has been abysmal. They can't tackle anybody,

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Speaker 2: and it's just I mean, they can't stop a nosebleed.

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Speaker 2: The hope is, you know, under a new coach, one

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Speaker 2: of the things that really improves when, like if morale

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Speaker 2: was down and when you're in a big spot is defense,

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Speaker 2: which is a lot of effort. So I would imagine

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Speaker 2: you get a good the best effort of the season

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Speaker 2: here from Nebraska's defense in a good home spot, taking

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Speaker 2: on Oklahoma team that they took down to the wire

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Speaker 2: as last year in Norman. So yeah, give me corn here.

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Speaker 2: I think this line is overinflated, and I don't care

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Speaker 2: even if in the post Frost the go ahead and lose. Actually,

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Speaker 2: let's win a one posession game here for the wind total.

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Speaker 2: Keep that on life support.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree here Nebraska. Honestly, it's not for everyone.

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Speaker 3: I agree, but I'm going to take a different angle

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Speaker 3: at this number. I mean, the look headline on this

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Speaker 3: was Nebraska plus seven. My power ratings make it six

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Speaker 3: and a half. So here we are. It's just all about,

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Speaker 3: you know, the firing with Frost. Everything's a mess. I

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Speaker 3: got news. Mickey Joseph has been in this situation before.

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Speaker 3: He was he ass to say, head coach at LSU

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Speaker 3: during twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. He's been through

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Speaker 3: some changes like this where they've cleaned house and then

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Speaker 3: he's stuck around to coach it out, so at least

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Speaker 3: he has experience in this scenario. I think the interesting

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Speaker 3: part about the defense is Eric Shenander has been moved

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Speaker 3: back to coach the safeties. Safety coach is moving out

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Speaker 3: the corners. It's a little bit of shuffling going on

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Speaker 3: back there, and I'm interested to know if there's still

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Speaker 3: if Nebraska is still going to be uber aggressive with

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Speaker 3: blitz which leaves him open for explosive plays. What did

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Speaker 3: Scott Frost bring to this team that dictates this spread

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Speaker 3: should be so big? Did he make halftime adjustments?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 3: Did he help with special teams? No? Did he improve

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Speaker 3: the defense which is why they took play calling away

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Speaker 3: from No. But there were disagreements with Mark Whipple. I

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Speaker 3: mean you look at the conversations. There was just not

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Speaker 3: Mark Whipple. I think his comments this week where we

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Speaker 3: have conversations and I just roll with it. I don't

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Speaker 3: really kind of cause any trouble. I do my job

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Speaker 3: and I go home. There's no limitations on Mark Whipple now,

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Speaker 3: And what does that mean? That means an offense that's

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Speaker 3: running at about twenty one seconds per play is going

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Speaker 3: to be able to do whatever he wants with Casey

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Speaker 3: Thompson and not have any issues. So I think we're

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Speaker 3: going to see an extremely fast game because Oklahoma's already

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Speaker 3: running at twenty two seconds per play, and so I

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Speaker 3: think the over is absolutely worth consideration here.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: The thing that leads into the bet that I'm going

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Speaker 3: to make on this is Oklahoma has just disappeared from

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Speaker 3: the first half against UTEP. Did they disappeared against Kent State?

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Speaker 3: There are still struggles on this defense. I think Venables

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Speaker 3: is still working to get this team to get in

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Speaker 3: the mold of what he wants. They're seventy ninth and

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Speaker 3: tackling right now. I think this is going to be

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Speaker 3: a very fired up Nebraska team coming out of there.

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Speaker 3: This is a huge game, and Mickey Joseph, I think

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Speaker 3: is the perfect voice that needs to be in that

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Speaker 3: locker room right now. So Stuck, I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: I like Corn getting the eleven is good, even though

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Speaker 3: it's come down from fifteen. I'll play it with you.

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Speaker 3: I like to overhear. But the bet I want to

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Speaker 3: make on this game that I am going to make

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Speaker 3: on the game is Nebraska first half money line. I

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Speaker 3: absolutely think they're gonna have positive energy coming out of there.

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Speaker 3: And the fact that Oklahoma keeps falling asleep in the

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Speaker 3: first half against the Kent States and the Uteps of

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Speaker 3: the world, Nebraska is gonna be able to catch him here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is narrative base but just I mean for us,

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Speaker 2: will make bad decisions, Like it's hard to determine how

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Speaker 2: much he's worth quantitatively, like negative vice to the spread,

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Speaker 2: So it's just a subjective input for me. But he

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Speaker 2: would make poor decisions and just the morale, like I

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Speaker 2: would watch him drive and like dap up players watch

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Speaker 2: and like they just didn't there was just no buy

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Speaker 2: in there. So that could only improve, especially for the

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Speaker 2: first game. All right, let's move on to our second

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Speaker 2: marquee game of the day BYU at Oregon gives three

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Speaker 2: point thirty Eastern on box following Nebraska. Oklahoma Oregon three

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Speaker 2: and a half point favorite over under fifty eight. Oregon

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Speaker 2: is a hard team for me to get a handle on.

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Speaker 2: They you know, it's a new regime, a new quarterback

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Speaker 2: in bo nicks bow next season. Then full effects and

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Speaker 2: they got trucked by Georgia in the opener, although they

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Speaker 2: moved the ball a little bit. You know, well, early

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Speaker 2: on in that game, pretty high success rate against George's defense,

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Speaker 2: and then it just got out of hand. And then

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Speaker 2: they played an FCS team, So it's like, okay, how

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Speaker 2: much can I really take out of that? Knowing that

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Speaker 2: this was going to be a new offense, a new quarterback,

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Speaker 2: so it's really hard for me to get a handle

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Speaker 2: on them. And then BYU you know, they go out

399
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Speaker 2: and they destroy South Florida. Some worrying signs there, but

400
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Speaker 2: they just built too big of a lead, and then

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Speaker 2: against Baylor they pick up a huge win in a

402
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Speaker 2: crazy game in multiple overtimes after a lot of missed kicks.

403
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Speaker 2: I was most impressively. There were other top two receivers.

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Speaker 2: They had another kid who came out of nowhere. I

405
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Speaker 2: got fifteen targets and had a huge game of one

406
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Speaker 2: hundred receiving yards. Chase Roberts had a huge game out

407
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Speaker 2: of nowhere. So I don't know if if you can

408
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Speaker 2: rely on him again. I think, by the way, what

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Speaker 2: you saw in that game is Baylor's offense is really

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Speaker 2: limited from a skill position standpoint. On the outside and

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Speaker 2: I think that's gonna be a problem all year. Oregon,

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Speaker 2: I think is much more talented, but we have to

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Speaker 2: see it in action here. You know this BYU. That

414
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Speaker 2: spot last week was all BYU, and they did it

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Speaker 2: without their top two receivers. They still can't run the

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Speaker 2: ball at all, and this is this just screams Oregon spot.

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Speaker 2: I would I want to get three or below, but

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Speaker 2: there's just a lot of unknowns with Oregon still, and

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Speaker 2: we don't know if BYU's top two receivers are going

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Speaker 2: to play. They've come out and said it's a true

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Speaker 2: game time decision. I think they one hundred percent need

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Speaker 2: them here. Talking tends to be conservative with injuries to

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Speaker 2: his players, so I would lean towards no, But I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I've been wrong with the receivers all year.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I I well, I feel better about after that Baylor

427
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Speaker 3: game that I took a Baylor under and I cited

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Speaker 3: the fact that they didn't have the skill position players

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Speaker 3: to help shape and get over the hump in some

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Speaker 3: of these games. But moving on to this one, you

431
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 3: know that was a great BYU spot. But Jaren Hall

432
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 3: does not have flying off the page numbers here. I mean,

433
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: he's got as many turnover worthy plays as he does

434
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 3: big time throws. He's a great game manager, he's a

435
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 3: he's the leader of the offense. But there's nothing flashy here,

436
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 3: not like a BONICKX who's having five TVs against Eastern

437
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 3: Washington last week. And you gotta remember this Oregon team.

438
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 3: I know, the score was bad. They moved the ball

439
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,880
Speaker 3: great against Georgia. They were up and down the field.

440
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 3: They just couldn't get in the endz. They couldn't get

441
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 3: any points whatsoever. So you know, BYU is off travel

442
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: to Florida, big old physical game against Baylor at home.

443
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 3: Now they're for going into this kick, which is what

444
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: twelve thirty local time? I mean, are they going to

445
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 3: be awake? Are they going to be ready for this?

446
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: And you're right, Gunna Romney Pokinaku, They're they The word

447
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 3: is they look a lot better, but they're considered day

448
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 3: to day and their game time decisions.

449
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: You know, that's bad news.

450
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 3: BYU needs them. Oregon does not have a single defender

451
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 3: on the defense that has forced it in completion. Yet

452
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 3: this year that back seven has been a little soft.

453
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 3: With the schedule, they've had so far. I know George

454
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 3: is tough. Stets Be Stets have been at tore them up.

455
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 3: But you know they didn't even have a force and

456
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 3: completion last week against Eastern Washington. So you know, even

457
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,640
Speaker 3: if BYU doesn't get their two best receivers back, Chase

458
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 3: Roberts should have some more explosive targets in there. I

459
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 3: love the over end this game. It's been a little

460
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 3: bit stagnant. I can see that everybody else is on

461
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 3: the over. But when you look at Oregon and BYU

462
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 3: on defense, thirteen of seventeen opponent red zone attempts so

463
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 3: far have ended in a touchdown. These teams are letting

464
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 3: everybody score a TD. Both of them are terrible defensive

465
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 3: finishing drives right now. So you know, this is the

466
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 3: thing where I think bo Nicks, who has crazy home

467
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 3: road splits like a baseball pitcher, like a coors Field

468
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 3: baseball pitcher. He's just got crazy home road splits. Well

469
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 3: see if that works out at autsin. But they're gonna

470
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 3: have more explosive players on the outside. They're gonna have

471
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 3: more explosive plays down the field. I'm not sure this

472
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 3: BYU defense doesn't come in tired or not ready for

473
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: a twelve thirty game. But I like the I like

474
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 3: the overhere. If I feel like BYU is not gonna

475
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 3: hold up their part, I'll try to get out of

476
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 3: it live. You're right. Oregon is the side, it's the spot,

477
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: and if BYU doesn't have their top two skilled position players,

478
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 3: then they're just gonna get run out of autsten.

479
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 2: Yep. I agree. All right. Let's go from bo Nicks's

480
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 2: new stomping grounds to He's old in Auburn. Penn State

481
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: travels to Auburn. Auburn is a three point home dog here.

482
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: This one is it's tough for me to get a

483
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: hang on. This is obviously a rematch of a game

484
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: last year in Happy Value, when Penn State pulled it

485
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 2: out twenty eight to twenty. Here. Look, I don't trust

486
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 2: either one of these quarterbacks at all. I don't trust

487
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 2: Sean Clifford and TJ. Finley. I am a known I've

488
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 2: been very vocal that I do not trust him. As

489
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: far as I could throw him. He's played Mercer and

490
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 2: San Jose State this year. He's thrown one touchdown in

491
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 2: three interceptions. That's bad, and I don't trust Clifford. So basically,

492
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 2: what I think this comes down to is and look,

493
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: we saw Penn State that but a MAC team last

494
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 2: week and then against Perdue, I was not impressed. They

495
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 2: just a bunch of flukes. Like in if you take

496
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 2: out their two minute drills where they outscored Purdue twenty one, nothing,

497
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: they were outplayed in that game. So what I think

498
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 2: this comes down to, and Purdue doesn't have a running game.

499
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: Ohio is not going to run it against Penn State.

500
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 2: So it's like, all right, how much is the Penn

501
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: State run defense which had some trouble last year, And

502
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,239
Speaker 2: the strength of their defense is clearly the back, right,

503
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 2: they have some guys in that secondary, So I don't

504
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: think TJ. Finley's gonna have any success throwing the ball.

505
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: And it comes down to ken Auburn, which has one

506
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: of the best running back duos in the country. Can

507
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 2: they have success on the ground against this many Diaz defense.

508
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 2: If they do, I think that Auburn's decide. If they don't,

509
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 2: then you can kiss Auburn goodbye. The more I think

510
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: about this game and talk about it, it's like I'm

511
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 2: starting to potentially look at the under with both of

512
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks. But what are your thoughts here?

513
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 3: My brain has been stuck on the fact that Manny

514
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 3: Diaz is coming a defensive coordinator in Penn State right

515
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 3: now is one hundred and twenty ninth and tackling. That's

516
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 3: that's not what I thought I would expect out of

517
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 3: this defense right now. But you're right, these two teams

518
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 3: were pretty evenly matched last year. I believe we had

519
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: a point spread of like five that Clifford covered in

520
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 3: the very last second and when Auburn went up there.

521
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 3: And right now, I project this game, you know, for

522
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 3: Penn State to be a one and a half point favorite.

523
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 3: So I obviously think that there's value on the Auburn side.

524
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:00,120
Speaker 3: There's a three and a half out there.

525
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 2: It's a juice.

526
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 3: I'd probably go and sweep that up. And I'm talking

527
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 3: myself more into it today. For a number of reasons.

528
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 3: This game is going to be based upon the success

529
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 3: of Tank Bigsby and dark Os Hunter on the ground.

530
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: Their passing downs have kind of been a crap shoot.

531
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 3: Everything stuck you just said about TJ Finley is correct.

532
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 3: The I and t's the turnover worthy plays. Robbie Ashford

533
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: just has a handful of attempts. He even threw an

534
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 3: interception against San Jose State in three drop backs, so

535
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: you know, tank Bigsby, he wasn't really tank like against

536
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 3: San Jose State. He only had two point seven yards

537
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: after contact and the Spartans had just I mean, they

538
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 3: were loading up in the box, so I get it.

539
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 3: Maybe they were selling out and going up against the run,

540
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 3: just forcing TJ. Finley to throw against him. You know,

541
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 3: dark Wes Hunter had a little bit more success running

542
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 3: the ball in eight times, but I.

543
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 2: Mean that's what Penn State's going to do too, though,

544
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: you know, yeah.

545
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 3: They are, and you know Penn State. The other handicap

546
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 3: is Sean Clifford. We talk about how he has improved

547
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: his game and his decision making under Mike Ersicic and

548
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 3: the Auburn front seven, they're going to shut down the

549
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 3: ground game. They they have shut it down in the

550
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 3: last two wins were able. You know, they're gonna be

551
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 3: one of the best SEC front sevens against rushing attacks

552
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: this year. So it's gonna be the Sean Clifford show.

553
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: Auburn right now is thirty fifth in coverage grading, and

554
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: so you have to go keep tabs on Michael Tinsley,

555
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: who transferred in from Western Kentucky, and KeAndre Lambert Smith

556
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 3: that if Pence's gonna win, it's gonna because of those two.

557
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 3: So then you go back and you look at Auburn's corners.

558
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 3: Namayah Pritchard, he's already I mean, he's a top tier

559
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 3: NFL draft pick. At corner, he's already got a few

560
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 3: I think three forced in completions, one of the highest

561
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 3: rates in FBS. And then corner Keante Scott, I mean

562
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 3: he isn't too far behind. He's been targeted eight times,

563
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 3: he has a forced in completion, So I think Clifford's

564
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 3: gonna be neutralized. I don't think he's gonna be able

565
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 3: to make that play that he made last year. His

566
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: average depth of target is down, and neither of his

567
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 3: wide receivers are more than two yards per route play.

568
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 3: They are not have not been explosive whatsoever. So I

569
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 3: think you're right on the under. I think Auburn is

570
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 3: the play for me. They're gonna have more success running

571
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 3: the ball than I think Clifford is trying to use

572
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 3: get to his wideouts with those two corners, Yeah.

573
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 2: I would agree, Alburn and plus three it's Auburn or nothing,

574
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 2: and maybe the under. I don't trust Clifford on the road,

575
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: but if there, if the Auburn's run game gets shut down,

576
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 2: it's it's lights. So let's uh old bow Knicks season

577
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: at home. By the way, Bo Nicks always we always

578
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 2: talked about bo Picks on the road, bow Knicks at

579
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: home home. Bow Knicks who was always looted home, he's

580
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 2: at home now in Oregon. Maybe that translates to Austin.

581
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: Let's move on to our fourth marquee game of the

582
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 2: day and we'll shift to a little later the night,

583
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 2: nine pm East. This kids at nine pm Eastern Miami

584
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 2: at Texas A and M. Texas A and M six

585
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 2: point favorite over under forty four and a half totals

586
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: come way down. I can't believe this kids at nine Eastern.

587
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: I did not know that text A and M obviously

588
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 2: off a embarrassing lost app at State at home. They

589
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 2: were seventeen eighteen, eighteen point favorites and they lost. Their

590
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 2: offense looked pathetical. They scored fourteen points, which included a

591
00:28:54,680 --> 00:29:05,719
Speaker 2: kickoff return for a touchdown. This to me, I mean,

592
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: Miami hasn't looked great either, but they haven't played anybody,

593
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: so it's like, are we have a new offense with

594
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: a new staff. They played Bethune Cookman and then Southern

595
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 2: miss and they didn't look great, but I doubt that

596
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: they were showing much. You know, these are two conservative coaches.

597
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: I think the Texas A and M defense, which is

598
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: excellent across the board, will show up prime time here

599
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 2: in an electric atmosphere after that loss. You could count

600
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 2: on that defense. By the way, these are two conservative,

601
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 2: generally speaking, offenses. So I completely agree with the total

602
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 2: move down. I might dabble with the under, but at

603
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: forty five as a key number, would want, you know,

604
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 2: forty five or more. So I'll see if that moves

605
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 2: back up. And the Texas A and M their offense sucks,

606
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: we know it. They could get They could be getting

607
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 2: a little healthier across the board. I think offensive line,

608
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: some guys on defense back as well. It's hard for

609
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 2: me to get a reed on Miami so far this year.

610
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: We saw what Van Dyke did last year with that offense.

611
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: It wasn't against defenses sec caliber defenses, and it was

612
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 2: with an old offense. So there's still a lot of

613
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 2: questions with the Miami offense. A lot of questions with

614
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 2: the Texas A and M offense. There's even questions. I'm

615
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 2: hearing rumors that they might make a change of quarterback

616
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 2: this week. We'll see if Max Johnson, the LSU transfer

617
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 2: gets to start. I'm not a fan of any quarterback

618
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 2: they have on the roster. I'm not a fan of

619
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 2: the their offense. So yeah, this is this is the spot.

620
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: Is Texas A and M all the way after that

621
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: embarrassing loss Miami trying to you know, break in a

622
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 2: new offense hasn't really faced anybody yet, so it's like,

623
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: holy shit, we're going to you know, we're going to

624
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 2: college station at nine pm Eastern, and Texas A and

625
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: M is off the loss. So to me, I would

626
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,239
Speaker 2: want if it's if it's it's Miami or nothing at

627
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: seven or above. But I expect Texas A and them

628
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 2: to come out with their hair on fire, and Miami

629
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: might be a bit shell shocked. They might, you know,

630
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 2: you might get your crystal ball just trying to run it,

631
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: which is not going to work against Texas A and M.

632
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 2: And then if Texas A and M gets a lead,

633
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: they're just going to go super conservative as they normally do,

634
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: so I might look for Miami live here after what

635
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 2: I expect to be a fast Texas A andem start

636
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: in a great spot. I saw you laid it today.

637
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't. I'm not laying points with Texas

638
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 2: A and M right now against Miami, So I think

639
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 2: it's a pass for me. Pregame. My best, strongest pregame

640
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 2: pick As right now with the line stand would be

641
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 2: under if you can get forty five or abelve Now.

642
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 3: I did write a Game of the Year content back

643
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 3: on May thirteenth on Action Network that said take Miami

644
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: plus nine. That's a great game of the year. It's

645
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: not going to be that high when we get to

646
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 3: game week. So congratulations if you got that number. But

647
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: now you have the chance to buy back in Texas

648
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 3: A and A and M if you want it, or

649
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 3: you can just take the side, or you can do

650
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 3: what I think should be done, which is take a

651
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 3: Texas A and M first half. And when you look

652
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 3: at Jimbo Fisher, he says there's going to be changes.

653
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: Do I believe him? Not really? But does that mean

654
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 3: there's going to be a quarterback change? Max Johnson and

655
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 3: Haines King, you got to get them outside the tackles.

656
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 3: You got to get their legs involved here, you got

657
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 3: to get them out in space and create an extra man.

658
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 3: So we'll see if that happens.

659
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 2: He's not going to do that. He runs his old,

660
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 2: pro style, outdated offense.

661
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 3: Listen, I started calling my wife Jimbo this week because

662
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 3: she has piles of paper all over the house, and

663
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 3: that's what it looks like when Jimbo's trying to call

664
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 3: an offense.

665
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: You know, I don't just support you know what I'm saying,

666
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: there's no reason to be nasty.

667
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 3: Like will you hand over play calling duties? He's like, yeah,

668
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 3: maybe if it benefits the team. Maybe you're not going

669
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 3: to hand over play calling duties and you're not going

670
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 3: to change your offense. But you know, Johnson has wheels.

671
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 3: I mean, he's we saw him at LSU and Haines

672
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: King runs a four or five forty. So if they

673
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 3: don't get these guys outside the pocket and quit reading

674
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 3: defenses and making them check down to a fourth target,

675
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 3: you know, a tight end or whatever. I mean, these

676
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: guys just can't run this pro style offense. So you know,

677
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna do something different.

678
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: We'll see what it is.

679
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 3: I don't know. Line up a Shane and the Wildcat

680
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 3: with a Nia Smith, I don't know. I definitely think

681
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 3: that they can overpower that front seven of Miami. Now,

682
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 3: Miami's had two very slow starts. They trailed Southern Mists

683
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 3: until there was twenty seconds left.

684
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: Last week.

685
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 3: Oh by the way, Southern mess had a backup quarterback

686
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 3: against with you and Cookman. The Wildcats themselves had a

687
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 3: ten play drive that result in a field goal to

688
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: start the game. So Tyler van Dyke, I mean, he's

689
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 3: been shaky at best when throwing the balls. Three turnover

690
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 3: worthy plays so far, He's just got a single big

691
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 3: time throw. And more importantly, what boggled my mind is

692
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 3: that those three turnover worthy plays came in clean pockets.

693
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 3: He was not pressured whatsoever. They are going to get

694
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 3: running back Jalen Night and back He's one hundred percent.

695
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: He took all the practice reps this week. He had

696
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 3: eight tds last year.

697
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 2: It's a really big.

698
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 3: Discount on the line. You know, when you consider what

699
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 3: the game of the year was in favor of Texas

700
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 3: A and M I like the Aggie's in the first half.

701
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 3: Maybe there's an element of doing stuff that they've never

702
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 3: seen before. But I go back to this that I

703
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 3: said preseason. This is not the trench that Crystal Ball

704
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 3: wanted on both sides of the ball, and Texas A

705
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 3: and M is bigger, They're stronger. Texas A and M

706
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 3: is it. I would stop buying. And it's six though,

707
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 3: this is I think that's getting a little bit too

708
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: high and there's gonna be sharp buyback on that seven

709
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 3: from Hurricanes investors.

710
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably buy seven. Eight to seven Texas and

711
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 2: I might get their center back Bryce Foster, who's an

712
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: All SEC freshman last year, but he's coming back from Mono,

713
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 2: Like I don't think he's an Apparently he's gonna split

714
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 2: spin snaps potentially and I don't even know. He's definitely

715
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: not gonna no doubt you played the whole game, and

716
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 2: that might even be a negative. Like their offensive line,

717
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 2: by the way, they've been good in pass protection and

718
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 2: this is apathetic. The Texas A and M offense was

719
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: last week, by the way against app State, an app

720
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 2: State team that gave up fourteen trillion yards passing the

721
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 2: week before and couldn't stop anybody. Last week, Texas A

722
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,959
Speaker 2: and M I'm gonna pull up the exact stats. Haynes

723
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 2: King was thirteen to twenty for ninety seven yards. Thirteen

724
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: to twenty for ninety seven yards. Got some freshmen on

725
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: the offensive line, right, they get three pressures, that's it

726
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 2: the whole game. They were great pass protection. The app

727
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: State wasn't getting pressure. Haynes King had a clean pocket

728
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 2: the entire game for ninety seven yards against app State's defense,

729
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 2: which lost like a couple of NFL players and was

730
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 2: supposed to get worse. Three total pressures. I don't know

731
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 2: what to say. So, yeah, you get your all s

732
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: easy freshman back, maybe off of Mono that that he's

733
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,879
Speaker 2: in full game shape, but you got you know, your left.

734
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: The run blocking has been awful. They can't get anything

735
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: on the ground. So yeah, the spot is Texas A

736
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 2: and M. But I'm not doing it all right. Let's

737
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 2: move on to our final game, marquee game of the day,

738
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 2: Fresno State at usc USC twelve and a half point

739
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 2: favorite over under seventy three and a half. Seventy three

740
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 2: and a half. It's sky high. I've just to me,

741
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 2: it's just a Presno a USC had not been impressed

742
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:50,760
Speaker 2: by their offense has been great, yes, and they'd scored

743
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 2: we all knew that. And their defense, which was the

744
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 2: biggest question coming in the year, is I've downgraded it

745
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 2: and I thought it was gonna be bad. It's looked awful.

746
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 2: We had Stanford last week should have been an easy cover.

747
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 2: Sadly it wasn't. Stanford turned the ball over inside the

748
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: ten twice. That's all USC has done all year on defense.

749
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 2: The only thing they've done is generate turnovers and rice

750
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 2: through a bunch of pick sixes, like three or four

751
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 2: pick sixes. Stafford turns it over, Yeah, Sanford turns it

752
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: over inside the ten twice in a row. Stanford just

753
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,399
Speaker 2: went up and down the field entire game. Jake Hayn

754
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: and Fresno have a better overall offense. Hater's done this

755
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 2: on this stage before against UCLA. And I'm taking the

756
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 2: twelve and a half here. If there's more Fluke turnovers

757
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 2: and USC wins by fourteen and Sanford still had a

758
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: chance to get in the back door there. But if

759
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 2: you know it was by fourteen to twenty one of

760
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 2: Fluke turners. Fine, but USC, which leads the country a

761
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 2: turnover margin, now that's not gonna with a bad D

762
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: is not going to persist. And yeah, so I think

763
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: Fresno can hang with USC. I don't think that they'll

764
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: get a ton of stops, but that's why the total

765
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 2: seventy three and a half. This had a shootout written

766
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 2: all over it. And on top of that with twelve

767
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 2: and a half, if you're down fourteen seventeen late with Hayner,

768
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: I'll be tweeting what this game starts at? What? Ten? Tenth?

769
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 2: Then thirty? Yeah, you'll be getting a drunk midnight, one

770
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 2: in the morning tweets of doors. You can always come

771
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 2: in my back door.

772
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, the USC vibes are giving me Notre Dame from

773
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 3: last year when I had that season win total under

774
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 3: nine and Jack Cone was just pulling things out of

775
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 3: his rear end and the turnover is always favorite Notre Dame.

776
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 3: So I'm starting to get that vibe from USC. It's

777
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 3: another inflated point spread for the Trojans. This is a game.

778
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 3: I make seven four turnovers last week from Stanford, like

779
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 3: Stucky said, two of them were on their first two drives.

780
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,720
Speaker 3: Those resulted in immediate points for USC. The Stanford rushing

781
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 3: attack went for two hundred and twenty one yards and

782
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 3: four point nine to carry. You say, why is that important?

783
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,280
Speaker 3: Because Jordan Mims is just as good as Ronnie Rivers

784
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 3: was last year. He's averaging three point five yards after contact.

785
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 3: He had some explosives against Oregon State, and I think

786
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 3: he's gonna do the same here. But the bread and

787
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 3: butter of the Fresno State offense is Jay Caner. He

788
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 3: had a clean game against the Beavers, no turnover worthy

789
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 3: plays and fifty one dropbacks. He's not gonna be scared

790
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 3: in this spot. I mean, he's already traveled down to

791
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 3: La played UCLA and won that game. So you know,

792
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 3: USC they might have some issues against explosive plays. Right now,

793
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 3: they're one hundred and eighth in defense and defending in

794
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 3: rush EPA expected points eighty ninth and defending explosiveness and

795
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 3: passing down So if you think Fresno State at third

796
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 3: and thirteen can't pull off something, you know big they

797
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 3: will and they can't. It's gonna be some good late

798
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,959
Speaker 3: night viewing. There's certainly gonna be some issues covering Jordan

799
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 3: Addison and Mario Williams from a Fresno side. You know

800
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 3: they're finishing drives. Rank is outside the top one hundred.

801
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 3: That scares me a little bit because you read the

802
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 3: cal poly play by play. Fresno's gonna give up some

803
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 3: points here, but they're gonna be able to score and

804
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 3: keep up. I mean, this was the handicap on USC

805
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 3: through the summer. These offs can put up points and

806
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 3: try to stay near USC. The question is whether they

807
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 3: going to benefit from turnovers to actually cover the spread.

808
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 3: Once again, it's hard to recommend taking an over, especially

809
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: when you get up to this. There's not that many

810
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 3: key numbers, you know, from a percentage perspective, So Fresno

811
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 3: State's the play. I would say take the over. It's

812
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 3: one of those ones where you're just going to get

813
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: a flurry of points and if you want to go under,

814
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 3: like a ninety or one hundred or whatever, you can

815
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 3: to make a window for fun. I think I'm playing.

816
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 3: I'm playing Fresnol all the way. I'll enjoy a little

817
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 3: bit on the over. Hopefully they pull it off outright,

818
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 3: because I'm holding the USC under nine and a half

819
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 3: wins and at some point I need this. I need

820
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:35,799
Speaker 3: this Lincoln Riley love boat to come to an end.

821
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: Jalen Cropper National Coming Out Party three touchdowns. I'm going

822
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 2: for all right before we continue. As a reminder, the

823
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM.

824
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,000
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825
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844
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852
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853
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 2: available in Nevada and New York. All right, let's move

854
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 2: on to the rundown. Cover a few other games here.

855
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 2: We talked about Syracuse, pitt already to Lane, Kansas State

856
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: just a couple of sentences there from you on that one.

857
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 2: Kansas State fourteen point favorite. So it's come down a

858
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 2: little bit. Totals come down a little bit. Tou Lane.

859
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 2: I've loved coming into this year. I don't know if

860
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: I can take this fourteen little worried about the trenches. Yeah,

861
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 2: stopping dues fawn two and hasn't played anybody yet. Yes

862
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 2: they're two and I know, but they've played just little

863
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 2: sisters of the poor two weeks in a row. And

864
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 2: Kansas State's defense might be legit. It's one of the

865
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 2: most impressive units so far, especially when you consider they

866
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 2: played Missouri. The Missouri scored a touchdown, that's true, but

867
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 2: they scored a touchdown on the final play of the

868
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 2: game that was untimed. Before that, it was forty to six.

869
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 2: Kansas State shutout South Dakota before then thirty four nothing.

870
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 2: So without that untimed down, they would have been holding

871
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 2: teams to three points per game through the first two

872
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 2: and that includes an sect. The Kansas State's defense looks legit.

873
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 2: They're not throwing the ball down the field though Adrian

874
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 2: Martinez is one deep attempt all year. They really haven't

875
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 2: had to. I don't know if Tulane Tilian might be

876
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: overmatched in the trenches. I love Tulane, but I don't

877
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 2: know if I can take fourteen here. Is this a

878
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 2: pass for you?

879
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 3: Well, first off, you and sold the little Sisters of

880
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:32,720
Speaker 3: the Poor because Tu Lanes played U Mass and Alcore

881
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 3: and that's way worse. So you know, you can't really

882
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 3: look at Two Lanes's numbers here or else. They look

883
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 3: like they're going to win the national title. But you're right,

884
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 3: Kansas State is just plowing teams. That's, you know, completely

885
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 3: in the eyes of their coach and the image of

886
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 3: what he wants. They run the ball sixty two percent

887
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 3: of the time, their twenty fifth in line yards, there's

888
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 3: seventh and rushing success rate. Douce fawn is having a

889
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 3: great season again. Adrian Martinez has a few fumbles. Come on,

890
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 3: I think you have to ask, can two Lane offensively

891
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 3: with Hall? Are they going to be able to explode

892
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 3: against Kansas State? You know, so far, so good for

893
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 3: Scotty Hazelton on that defense, their top twenty in havoc,

894
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 3: their top twenty line yards finishing drives, and their fifth

895
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 3: and coverage and I get it. Missouri's you know in

896
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 3: there with the little sisters of the poor. But yeah,

897
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:18,399
Speaker 3: this will be their toughest test today. But you're right,

898
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 3: Kansas State can absolutely control a trench on both sides

899
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:23,800
Speaker 3: of the ball, and that gives me serious pause on

900
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,320
Speaker 3: a number that's fourteen. So I think two lane is

901
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 3: the play. And Kansas State has overlooked to Oklahoma. So

902
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: I think this is one of those things where it's

903
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: like two or three scores from Kansas State and maybe

904
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 3: I take two lane live because they're going to play

905
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 3: the full entire game. If Kansas State's got ou next week,

906
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 3: they might not, So I think that's the way that

907
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 3: I want to play it.

908
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: That's a good angle on my book at two lane

909
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: live as well. All right, let's weve got to Michigan

910
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 2: State Washington. I think we might have a disagreement here.

911
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 2: Washington three three and a half point favorites here. Look, Washington,

912
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 2: you can't really say a ton about Washington so far

913
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 2: if you just say, like, look who they've played over

914
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 2: under here fifty six and a half. By the way,

915
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: it's risen quite a bit. But I came into this

916
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 2: year super high on Washington, and I love the coach

917
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 2: who said the reason why I bet one of my

918
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 2: favorite wind totals over. I love the reunification of offensive

919
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 2: coordinator and Michael Pennix, who just thrived under the system

920
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen of Doubor at Indiana. He's looked great

921
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: so far. The offenses looked great, so I know it's

922
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 2: been back comptition. But there's a team that lost to

923
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: Montana in their home opener last year. When you look

924
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: at what Michigan State has done, I've not been impressed

925
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 2: at all. Yes, they crushed Afro great, But if you

926
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 2: look at that Western Michigan game close in the fourth

927
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,800
Speaker 2: quarter and West Fisherman was starting a freshman for the

928
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 2: first time, and they lost, you know, an NFL receiver,

929
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 2: they lost some key piece from defense. It wasn't supposed

930
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 2: to be good. So then I say, hm, you know,

931
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 2: the Michigan State gets a couple of flute touchdowns slate

932
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: in the cover and which added to their yards by

933
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 2: the way, so that I say, all right, maybe in

934
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: Western Michigan is a little better than I thought. And

935
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 2: then Western Michigan, which sucks for a wind total because

936
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 2: they won, got thoroughly out thoroughly out played by Ball

937
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 2: State it gave up seven yards six pointy yards per

938
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 2: play only average like five point three. Ball State quarterback

939
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 2: making his second start looked off off Tennessee. They got

940
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 2: shredded by Ball State shredded. So I was like, wow,

941
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 2: that's not great that Michigan State was struggle. Michigan State

942
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 2: should have ran through them like a hot knife through

943
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: butter and Washington. On the other hand, the teams that

944
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 2: they've played, you know Portland Safet team that almost won

945
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 2: it should have won at San Jase State and Kent State,

946
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 2: they just buried them, which is what Michigan State should

947
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 2: have done to Western Michigan early. So I think there's

948
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 2: some problems here. There's some injuries on the defensive side

949
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 2: of the ball. Their best offensive player, Jayden Reid, might

950
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 2: not play. I don't I can't get any intel on that.

951
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 2: I'll try to get some. I'll try to get some

952
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 2: today or tomorrow from some people that I know and

953
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 2: East Lansing, but I haven't got anything in there yet.

954
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 2: But I love this Washington team. I can't like three

955
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,800
Speaker 2: and a half. It's someone people other people in the

956
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 2: market must love them. I thought I had Washington favored.

957
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 2: If you go read my write up in for my

958
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 2: wind total, I had Washington actually favored in this game.

959
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 2: I know you didn't you were bet I'm lower on

960
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 2: Michigan State, much higher on Washington. I also love the

961
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 2: new defensive scheme change, and there was just a lot

962
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 2: of talent on the They they're like my giants of

963
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 2: this year. Like that they were. There's some talent that

964
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 2: wasn't being utilized correctly because of the coaching, and that's

965
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 2: one of the reasons why both wind totals, but they

966
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 2: both win totals like six and a half to six

967
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 2: and a half minus. I think they were the same

968
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 2: wind totals the same price too. So yeah, I like

969
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 2: Washington in the spot and I just want three. They'll

970
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 2: be in my round. Robbins, It's all about the Huskies

971
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 2: for me. But I bet you're gonna make a case

972
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 2: or spar to here.

973
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 3: Well, I actually have Michigan State minus one. But there

974
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 3: are things that concern me. You mentioned the injuries Darius

975
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 3: Snow Xavier Henderson. Those are two ex streamely key pieces

976
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 3: out of the defense. They were two of the top

977
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 3: four tacklers last year and they were really the patrolling

978
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,800
Speaker 3: of the back seven and passing down. So it's a

979
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 3: really big part of Michigan State's defense. It's not going

980
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 3: to be there. That's not something I really want a

981
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 3: part of. When Pennix is just looking like all Pro Bowl,

982
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 3: you know, under Kaylin de boor like going back to.

983
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: Michigan State, SOI doesn't have a secondary.

984
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 3: By the way, Michigan State still doesn't have a secondary.

985
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 3: So that you know, me saying the projection is Michigan

986
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 3: State minus one, I'm taking into the fact that you

987
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 3: know they do not have two of their key pieces

988
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 3: in their secondary. So you know, a fully a full

989
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 3: strength of Michigan State. Yeah, I'd behind it all the way.

990
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 3: That worries me. And then when you step out a

991
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 3: little bit further. This Jayden Reid thing is odd, right,

992
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 3: I mean, mel Tucker at the press conference says he's sore,

993
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 3: that's all it is. Well, when's he gonna play? He will,

994
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 3: he will play when he doesn't when he feels like

995
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 3: he's ready to play.

996
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:50,919
Speaker 2: That's the most obtuse thing I've ever heard.

997
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 3: Like Jayden Reid is him not just important to the

998
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 3: explosiveness of the offense, but he's important to kick returning

999
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 3: and punt returning. He is somebody that can take it back.

1000
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 3: Especially Washington's not had great special teams so far in

1001
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 3: their ranking. So you know, Jalen Reed, if he is

1002
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 3: not playing in this game, then like for me, it's

1003
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 3: I wrote it all up on Action Network. I said

1004
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 3: Michigan State at plus three and a half is a buye.

1005
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 3: I think Washington. I agree with you that Washington's going

1006
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 3: to win this game, but at some point there is

1007
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 3: a win a part when you buy Michigan State. I

1008
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 3: think that number three and a half. I wouldn't buy

1009
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 3: Michigan State at three. You know, if Jalen Reid doesn't play,

1010
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 3: all bets are off. I don't think the Spartans can

1011
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 3: win this game.

1012
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 2: Then there's worries about Peyton Thorne. What the heck is

1013
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 2: going on?

1014
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,399
Speaker 3: He's got happy feet, his mechanics are different than last year.

1015
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 3: He is not in sync with any other wide receiver

1016
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 3: except Jalen Reed. So that's how important of a piece

1017
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 3: read is to this game. So even though I think

1018
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:49,919
Speaker 3: three and a half is the bypoint on Michigan State,

1019
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:52,879
Speaker 3: I absolutely think Washington is winning this game. I don't

1020
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 3: know by how much the market is screaming Washington is

1021
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 3: winning this game. Again. Don't know how much I think

1022
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:00,760
Speaker 3: Washington wins this game. But you're going to buy Michigan

1023
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:02,439
Speaker 3: State less. It's a three and a half and Reid

1024
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 3: is gonna play Lusky's baby.

1025
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 2: You beting them all year, so get used to it.

1026
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 2: The last rundown game Mississippi State LSU. Mississippi State here

1027
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 2: is a two point favorite. They have looked out standing

1028
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 2: through two games. They just absolutely shredded Arizona. One of

1029
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 2: the most impressive parts about their offensive. By the way,

1030
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 2: we were on this win total over too. I was

1031
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 2: extremely hot in this Mississippi State team with the defense

1032
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 2: we know it fox and was one of the most

1033
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: experienced in the entire country. Their offense third year of

1034
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 2: e leech offense with Will Rogers, it's all about continuity

1035
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 2: and timing and they've had it and they lost a

1036
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 2: couple of receivers. They're spreading the ball out beautifully. The

1037
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 2: question was on the offensive line. The only starter they

1038
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,840
Speaker 2: had that is still playing his same position as he

1039
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:52,839
Speaker 2: did last year. It's a center. It's a damn good

1040
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 2: one and he's looked great and you know he does

1041
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 2: all the calls and you get the ball out quick,

1042
00:49:57,360 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 2: but the offensive line has looked tremendous. I thought way

1043
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 2: ahead of the curve. So Mississippi State even better than

1044
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 2: I thought. And now you're going up against an LSU

1045
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 2: defensive line that doesn't have their best player who's out

1046
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: for the year after Smith celebrated just an unfortunate injury

1047
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: in the opener, and an LSU defense that has weakness

1048
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: at linebacker, not good when you're playing the Leach air raid,

1049
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 2: and new pieces in the secondary not good when you're

1050
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 2: playing the Leach air raid. I assume LSU won't come

1051
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 2: out of here and try to play man press like

1052
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:30,359
Speaker 2: they did when they got destroyed at home by Leach

1053
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,239
Speaker 2: earlier in the season. They had a better game plan

1054
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 2: last year in a victory. I think they won twenty

1055
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 2: eight to twenty one. This number doesn't have a ton

1056
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,720
Speaker 2: of value, and there's still a lot of uncertainty with LSU.

1057
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 2: But I think Mississippi State wins this game. But at

1058
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 2: this price, it's probably a pass. But LSU goes up

1059
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 2: seven to nothing, I'm coming in the state.

1060
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's exactly I'm at a pick on this game.

1061
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 3: I think if you can get a score out of

1062
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 3: LSU to start, You're definitely going to buy Mississippi State.

1063
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I want to lay like a

1064
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 3: juice minus one thirty on cow Bell When I might

1065
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 3: be able to get better differences in this game. Is

1066
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 3: the rank of special teams Mississippi State coming in and

1067
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 3: SP plus rankings of fortieth lusqu at one hundred and twelve,

1068
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 3: So an advantage there that could really affect a game.

1069
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 3: That's a pick. When you look at LSU, they're gonna

1070
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 3: have to try to do something about the air raid.

1071
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,839
Speaker 3: Dink and dunka Will Rogers playing you know, exquisite these days.

1072
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 3: They're tenth and finishing drives, They're getting every single scoring

1073
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 3: opportunity into the end zone. They're third and passing success rate.

1074
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 3: They usually it takes a while for the air raid

1075
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 3: to get in sync. They've been hot the entire way.

1076
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 3: So LSU is gonna have to deal with that. If

1077
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 3: Daniels is not, you know, he might not have to

1078
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 3: scramble out of the pocket because of how poor Mississippi

1079
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 3: States rushes and LSU is actually running the ball pretty

1080
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 3: well their thirteenth and success rate rushing the ball sixteenth

1081
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 3: in line yards, So the offensive line is coming together.

1082
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 3: And I said this when I saw the Florida State game.

1083
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 3: That's the worst game they'll play all year, especially from

1084
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 3: the offensive line perspective. Since those guys have never played

1085
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:51,279
Speaker 3: together and they're all young. They're just gonna get better

1086
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 3: every single game. Now, can they win this? There's a

1087
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 3: lot of intangibles, including special teams and tackling that very

1088
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 3: much favorite Mississippi State here, But I was stuck. It's

1089
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 3: a pick game. I would love for LSU to get

1090
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 3: a score. I would love to get a lease of

1091
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 3: field goal live. Not sure before the game. I'm gonna

1092
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 3: take Misissippi State minus one thirty ish on the money line.

1093
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 3: I'll probably play it live.

1094
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make this Missippi State minus three, and yeah,

1095
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a tall test for the

1096
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 2: LSU offense and LSU offensive line obviously look better last

1097
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: week I plicked Southern little different test. You're playing a

1098
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 2: top fifteen defense in Mississippi State. All right, let's move

1099
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 2: on to our next segment, and it's a quick one

1100
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:32,320
Speaker 2: thirty second segment. It's Colin giving us a free winner

1101
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 2: on the San Diego State total. You were wrong or

1102
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,760
Speaker 2: right for us again? Last week, San Diego State Utah

1103
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 2: over under forty nine. You have a fifteen second clock

1104
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 2: over or under, and why yeah.

1105
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to take an over in this game

1106
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 3: as techovers. San Diego State overs are back. You want

1107
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 3: to know why because Utah's finishing drives right now is

1108
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty six Florida scored all day. Teams

1109
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 3: are just going down the field on you and they're

1110
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 3: getting points up on the board. Now not very often.

1111
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 3: Utah is one of the best teams in the nation.

1112
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 3: You know, I love them to win the Pac twelve.

1113
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:08,840
Speaker 2: But all right, that's it. That's all you got. Ter.

1114
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 2: There is a general requirement of brevity.

1115
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 3: Most people think that we are being briefer than we are.

1116
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 2: That's all you got, Colin says, San Diego State overs,

1117
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 2: we're back. He went under in game one with San

1118
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:27,359
Speaker 2: Diego State. That went over it right now, he went

1119
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 2: over in the second game that went under, and now

1120
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 2: he's going over. So you heard it here for San

1121
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 2: Diego State Utah under forty nine and a half. We

1122
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 2: have three teams that pulled off upsets at seventeen point

1123
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: underdogs last week, like Marshall. Now there's seventeen point favorites

1124
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 2: app State. Now they're twelve and a half point favorites

1125
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:52,239
Speaker 2: at home who also Georgia Southern Washington State against Wisconsin,

1126
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 2: and now they're seventeen point favorites if you go back

1127
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 2: since since two thousand and five's teams have gone thirty nine,

1128
00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:01,280
Speaker 2: twenty five and three sixty one percent against the spread

1129
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 2: after pulling off an upset as seventeen plus point underdogs.

1130
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 2: Shocking to me. I thought it would be the opposite

1131
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 2: against the ranked opponent. And they're seventeen four and two

1132
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 2: against the spread eighty one percent when they're a favored

1133
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 2: of at least a touchdown the next week, which tells

1134
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:18,960
Speaker 2: me the market might not adjust enough how good these

1135
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:22,319
Speaker 2: teams might be compared to pryors. So it's up food

1136
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 2: for thought for app State against Troy, for Marshall against

1137
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 2: Bowling Green, and for Washington State against Colorado State of

1138
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 2: Colorida State offense, it's a mess. Their offensive line is

1139
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 2: a disaster. They've now lost both tackles. Just a ridiculous

1140
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 2: situation there, and they're transitioning to an air raid, which

1141
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 2: is never easy. Any other games, I wanted to mention

1142
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 2: Wisconsin under which is coming down. We talked about that

1143
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 2: last week before the openers with New Mexico State unders

1144
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 2: for life South Florida. We're going back TOEL plus twenty

1145
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 2: four and a half.

1146
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:52,759
Speaker 3: By the way, Rice, Rice canna be ull out right?

1147
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to my favorite segment. It's

1148
00:54:57,320 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 2: back FC Yes or.

1149
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 4: No, Southland or SEC Big Sky or Big Ten. It's

1150
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 4: time to play FC Yes or No.

1151
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 2: Spend a couple of minutes here talking about a couple

1152
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 2: FCS FBS matchups. I got a couple on my mind

1153
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:28,760
Speaker 2: that I'll mention real quick. Kentucky against Youngstown State. Stoops

1154
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,800
Speaker 2: does not cover these games. Horrible spot. Kentucky's up. You know,

1155
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:36,440
Speaker 2: they don't have a tough game on deck, but they

1156
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:38,920
Speaker 2: got injuries already. They're already dealing with Rodriguez, still wan't

1157
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:40,839
Speaker 2: to be back. Their offense is still broken. They only

1158
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 2: had like two hundred and seventy yards against Florida. Youngstown's

1159
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 2: State's been feisty in these spots. And by the way,

1160
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 2: Stoops almost lost to Chattanooga last year in a similar spot.

1161
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 2: You have the Florida letdown. He almost lost to Eastern

1162
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 2: Kentucky twice at home. They have a one to win

1163
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 2: it overtime. They came back from fourteen down back in

1164
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, so I think Kentucky just wants to get up,

1165
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 2: sit on the ball, be conservative here, work on the

1166
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 2: run game. Youngstown State can be feisty here. They have

1167
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:05,759
Speaker 2: a really good running back that they can lean on.

1168
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,320
Speaker 2: He's a pro prospect. I think his name is McCullough.

1169
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:12,320
Speaker 2: And Stukes has ties to Youngstown, the city and the program,

1170
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 2: which is I think why this game got scheduled for

1171
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,000
Speaker 2: the payday, So I don't think he's gonna run it

1172
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:19,719
Speaker 2: up here. I'll be looking at Youngstown State plus and

1173
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:24,240
Speaker 2: then maybe second half also, Arkansas take on Missouri State.

1174
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,399
Speaker 2: I will be on Missouri State if this number comes

1175
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 2: out where I think it is by percent, by far

1176
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 2: the state. Missouri State is going to threaten Arkansas in

1177
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,719
Speaker 2: this game. Missouri State, by the way, is a top

1178
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:42,759
Speaker 2: five potential national champion winner on the FCS level. They

1179
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 2: went to Oklahoma State and should have beat Oklahoma State

1180
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:47,839
Speaker 2: last year. They all start seven. They went to North

1181
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:51,319
Speaker 2: Dakota State last year and lost by seven. This team

1182
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:55,840
Speaker 2: is brought seventeen starters back that a ten FBS transfers, Petrino,

1183
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 2: whatever you think of them as this program completely turned around.

1184
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 2: They've gone to the the FCS playoffs two years in

1185
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 2: a row. The thirty years prior zero times Arkansas go.

1186
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 2: Look at Arkansas's schedule the next five games. They're coming

1187
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 2: off an SEC win in Cincinnati. Their next five weeks

1188
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 2: Texas A and M neutral Alabama at home, at Mississippi

1189
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 2: State at Auburn. I mean, is it a joke like

1190
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 2: they before the next five on the road too. They're

1191
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 2: already dealing with a ton of injuries. They can't stop

1192
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 2: a nosebleed. There's no jail in Catalan. Missouri State is

1193
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 2: one of the best FCS receivers in the country. Missouri

1194
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 2: State and by the way, Pittman Sandy covers, Yes, he covers,

1195
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 2: but he has no interest in one of them blow

1196
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 2: this out. He's gonna get up, make sure that they

1197
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 2: stay healthy. Missouri State will be underwhelmed in the trench,

1198
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 2: but Missouri State Bears Bears Bears. The other one another

1199
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:57,960
Speaker 2: top five team, Oregon State, similar situation. They have USC

1200
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 2: on deck in Utah. They're coming off with big win

1201
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 2: at Fresno. They host Montana State, top five team in FCS.

1202
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 2: The problem is here. These coaches have a lot of

1203
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 2: respect for each other. They go way back, a lot

1204
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 2: of ties. I don't think that Smith's gonna want Jonathan spit.

1205
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 2: Their head coach is gonna run it up. But Montana

1206
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 2: State bigger plans, want to win the national title. They're

1207
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 2: down to like their four string running back. Their quarterbacks

1208
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 2: are dealing with injuries. Their cornerbacks of the deal with injuries.

1209
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 2: So I don't know how much they try to go

1210
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 2: at this, So that might be like a second half

1211
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 2: under look. So but yeah, Missouri State, Missouri State, Missouri State.

1212
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:36,880
Speaker 3: Oh no, no, no, all right, let's all right, let

1213
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:40,000
Speaker 3: me put down the helmet next to my Scottie Thurman Jersey.

1214
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 3: All Right, you and I might have to stopped being

1215
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 3: friends until what nine o'clock on Saturday night.

1216
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 2: Listen, it's getting the main screen. Listen.

1217
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 3: Missouri State has around forty transfers from FBS. They are

1218
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 3: a very good FCS team. They are going to contend

1219
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 3: for the FCS championship. They're gonna make the playoffs. They

1220
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 3: should make the semi final win. I get it. They're

1221
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 3: led by quarterback Jason Shelley, former of Utah. Ty Scott

1222
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 3: is our big wide receiver that came in from Central Michigan.

1223
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 2: I get it.

1224
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 3: They just come off a five point win against the

1225
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 3: Tennessee Martin team that's power rated about the same as them.

1226
00:59:13,720 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 3: Struggled a little bit in Conway against Central Arkansas.

1227
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: But looking ahead to this spot, hold on, hold on.

1228
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 3: Sam Pittman or Sammy Covers as we like to call

1229
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 3: him here, it was asked about Bobby Patrino. He said,

1230
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 3: Coach Trino did a really good job while he was here.

1231
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 3: We'd like to thank him for his time in his service.

1232
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 3: While he was here on campus, he did some really

1233
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 3: good things. And then there was a smile at the

1234
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 3: end of that. And if you don't think that Sam

1235
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 3: Pittman doesn't know that, we want to beat the absolute

1236
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 3: hell out of Bobby Patrino because our program went into

1237
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 3: like an eight year funk.

1238
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:46,520
Speaker 2: John L.

1239
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:51,120
Speaker 3: Smith Chad Morris might throw John Pelfrey in there, No

1240
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:53,960
Speaker 3: Jodvo kidding, that's basketball. But we just went into a

1241
00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 3: terrible funk. Which gotta love the sound club of me

1242
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 3: saying blow up the program. That I think that was

1243
00:59:58,080 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 3: after the North Texas.

1244
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 2: Runback whoop pick Suey absolute, dumpster fined, dumpster fine. I

1245
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:06,480
Speaker 2: don't know how we win a game the rest of

1246
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 2: the year. Just blow the program up, give us a

1247
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 2: death sentence. Collins talking razorback football.

1248
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 3: Sam Piman understands what this means to the fan base.

1249
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 3: I know that we have a look ahead line to SEC,

1250
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:20,880
Speaker 3: but he understands what this means to the Boosters, to

1251
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 3: the fan base, to Hunter Yurchik, who had to come

1252
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 3: in and clean up jeff Long's mess so to play

1253
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:30,160
Speaker 3: Devil's advocate. They they have a terrible, terrible defense. They

1254
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 3: cannot defend Rahem Sanders. They cannot defend kJ Jefferson. And

1255
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 3: I'm not out here saying that, you know, artists, I

1256
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 3: was gonna play the entire way, but Sam Pitman is

1257
01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:38,440
Speaker 3: going to open.

1258
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: He's gonna risk right before the hardest five game schedule

1259
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 2: in the entire country. Look, he's gonna he's gonna risk

1260
01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:49,320
Speaker 2: more injuries from an already injured team. Nobody Missouri State

1261
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: go home.

1262
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 3: Nobody on Missouri State can injure us. They're they're too

1263
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 3: small on defense. I'm not even worried about it. But

1264
01:00:57,520 --> 01:00:59,880
Speaker 3: when you talk about look aheadlines, you need to look

1265
01:00:59,920 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 3: at Missouri State schedule. They played the Jacks, they got

1266
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 3: South Dakota State the following week. They're gonna be an

1267
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 3: underdog by like eight nine points. If Patrino was smart,

1268
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 3: he'd come down, you know, shake hands, try to get

1269
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:13,960
Speaker 3: a date with somebody on the volleyball team, go back

1270
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 3: up to Springfield, and get ready for a game that

1271
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 3: really matters, for the FCS championship game.

1272
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 2: All right, so listen, if he's smart, he would do

1273
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 2: the same thing. No, the problem is the difference is

1274
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:25,959
Speaker 2: I'll be catching a ton of points of Missouri State.

1275
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:28,760
Speaker 2: Pittman does not.

1276
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:31,240
Speaker 3: Want to walk into a media room after Bobby Patrino

1277
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 3: gave this team a scare. There is no chance in

1278
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 3: hell a former coach that took our team to the

1279
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 3: Sugar Bowl comes in and rocks him and his team.

1280
01:01:39,600 --> 01:01:41,959
Speaker 3: It's not going to happen. We will keep our foot

1281
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:46,000
Speaker 3: on the pedal, all right now, the number sageran or

1282
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:49,640
Speaker 3: SP plus, sager in or sp plus makes it twenty six.

1283
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 3: All right. I'm just gonna say this right now. I

1284
01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 3: don't care what the number is. I've got alerts on

1285
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:58,560
Speaker 3: when it comes out, I'm hitting it, follow er, don't

1286
01:01:58,680 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 3: I don't care.

1287
01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:01,120
Speaker 2: I'm playing. I'll wait for you to hit it and

1288
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 2: then I'll get twenty eight and hit it. Fine, you

1289
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:04,360
Speaker 2: tell me you're gonna hit it.

1290
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 3: I'm hitting it Arkansas.

1291
01:02:07,320 --> 01:02:09,560
Speaker 2: I'll be on Missouri State, Missouri State, Patrina.

1292
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 3: Patrino back up by forty four, get him back up

1293
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 3: by year.

1294
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:15,120
Speaker 2: He should go on his Harley, get out of here.

1295
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 2: He's going to be riding out of FAVL with confetti

1296
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 2: and on his motorcycle. It's raining down on him.

1297
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:23,800
Speaker 3: Dotam Casino, my friend.

1298
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 2: Not back to Springfield, mell. Let's move on to our

1299
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:31,040
Speaker 2: next segment. Before we get out of here, we have

1300
01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 2: to go three and now let's make it a quick

1301
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 2: three and out. All right, let's start with our favorite

1302
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 2: bet of the week. I'll start off Buffalo plus fourteen

1303
01:02:43,200 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 2: anything two touchdowns are above. I wrote this one up.

1304
01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 2: If you look at my article preaching a bunch of

1305
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:51,200
Speaker 2: games earlier this week, this line has come down a bit.

1306
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 2: Buffalo was fourteen point underdogs at home last week last year,

1307
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:56,600
Speaker 2: and again they lost by three. Coast to Carolina was

1308
01:02:56,640 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 2: good last year, it was kind of stinks this year.

1309
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 2: That's the difference difference in I think just The perception

1310
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:06,800
Speaker 2: of these two teams is Buffalo last week lost to

1311
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 2: holy Cross, who's arguably a top ten FCS team. They

1312
01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 2: also gonna hail Mary but you know, and then they

1313
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 2: played maryl in Week one. Coastal Carolina has not looked

1314
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,439
Speaker 2: good at all. They beat Gardner Webb is a sub

1315
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 2: average FCS team and they got thoroughly out played. To

1316
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:25,720
Speaker 2: go with six hundred yards of offense Coastal Carolina. He

1317
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 2: can't stop anyone through the air. The run defense has

1318
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:30,200
Speaker 2: been decent, but Buffalo will be able to move the

1319
01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 2: ball through the area. They have major revenge. The are

1320
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 2: zero to two going up against a two and zero

1321
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:38,680
Speaker 2: fraud Coastal team. They also saw this offense last year

1322
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 2: and it's a very complex Coastal offense. A lot of

1323
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 2: moving pieces that experience and prep will help Coastal with

1324
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:48,720
Speaker 2: you know, conference play on deck. They're two and oh

1325
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 2: they escaped last week. This is way too many points

1326
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:54,600
Speaker 2: for a Buffalo team that should be improved. You got

1327
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:57,080
Speaker 2: to remember a Buffalo's situation last year with a new

1328
01:03:57,200 --> 01:03:59,520
Speaker 2: coach that got in there laid it was just a mess.

1329
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:01,760
Speaker 2: And I think they'll really want this game for that

1330
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: home loss last year. This is way too many points

1331
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:07,840
Speaker 2: against the Coastal def comple rebuilding rebuilt Coastal team. Outside

1332
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 2: of the quarterback race. McAll is excellent, but he can

1333
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,880
Speaker 2: only do so much. Buffalo should keep up here. I'll

1334
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:15,240
Speaker 2: give you the bulls plus fourteen or better. Howbout you?

1335
01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:16,160
Speaker 2: Where you going? Favorite bet?

1336
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:18,200
Speaker 3: I really wanted to go Rice, but I'm gonna pivot

1337
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 3: off and take Fresno, a team we already talked about

1338
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 3: here on the podcast. Stanford had four turnovers against USC,

1339
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 3: two in their first two drives that ended in points

1340
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 3: for USC, and they just could not come back from that.

1341
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 3: But that doesn't mean that the trees didn't go up

1342
01:04:30,080 --> 01:04:32,680
Speaker 3: and down the field with Tanner McKee. USC defense is

1343
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 3: now sixty six then defensive finishing drives. They allow three

1344
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 3: point five points every time an opponent gets into scoring territory,

1345
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:41,680
Speaker 3: which has been ten times so far this year against

1346
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:45,440
Speaker 3: Rice and Stanford's offenses. Florida State is fourth and stuffing

1347
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 3: the run. That's impressive after going up against Oregon State.

1348
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:52,640
Speaker 3: Jordan Mims has had some explosive runs. I expect him

1349
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 3: to have some more. What he did to the Beavers.

1350
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 3: He can easily do to the Trojan's defense. That's going

1351
01:04:57,240 --> 01:04:58,880
Speaker 3: to be able to extend possessions. They're going to be

1352
01:04:58,880 --> 01:05:02,400
Speaker 3: able to control the line scrimmage. Fresno against usc Listen,

1353
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:04,520
Speaker 3: we gotta keep Caleb Williams off the field, but Fresno

1354
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:06,480
Speaker 3: can go toe to toe in the scoring. Give me

1355
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:07,439
Speaker 3: the plus twelve and a half.

1356
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 2: Love it all right, Let's move on to second down,

1357
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:13,200
Speaker 2: our favorite favorite.

1358
01:05:13,520 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 3: It's called the over dog parlay.

1359
01:05:15,640 --> 01:05:18,000
Speaker 2: And last week we're three and one on the air

1360
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:21,760
Speaker 2: on these Last week I had my boy Holton Nailers.

1361
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:24,560
Speaker 2: Let's come to be the best part I've ever seen.

1362
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:30,760
Speaker 2: So it would seem we got to the window for me.

1363
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:33,760
Speaker 2: Colin had laid seventeen and a half with Graham Mertz

1364
01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:37,880
Speaker 2: unfortunately hopefully learned from his mistake because I didn't, because

1365
01:05:37,960 --> 01:05:40,880
Speaker 2: boys were laying twenty three with Iowa. I don't tell

1366
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 2: you what to do with your money. Don't fucking tell

1367
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:43,800
Speaker 2: me what to do with mine.

1368
01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 3: Okay, instthingly, I regret saying that that was a horrible

1369
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:49,160
Speaker 3: thing to say. I love y'all very much.

1370
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 2: Iowa minus twenty three is my favorite favorite. A team

1371
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:56,480
Speaker 2: that can't score more than six, we are laying over

1372
01:05:56,560 --> 01:06:00,160
Speaker 2: three touchdowns with Ed Kennick. Look, this is it just

1373
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:03,640
Speaker 2: a pure by low spot. After everyone's just been shitting

1374
01:06:03,680 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 2: on Iowa for two weeks, I show a ton of

1375
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 2: value in the summer. I'm also super low in Nevada.

1376
01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 2: Nevada ga over a three hundre yards offense to New

1377
01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 2: Mexico State. Nevada just gave up fifty five points to

1378
01:06:14,000 --> 01:06:17,360
Speaker 2: Incarnate Word, who's a good s yes offense, but they

1379
01:06:17,440 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 2: can't stop a nosebleed. They also are their offense which

1380
01:06:21,160 --> 01:06:23,520
Speaker 2: is completely rebuilt. They rely on running the ball. You

1381
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,480
Speaker 2: can't run the ball in Iowa. Iowa is going to

1382
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 2: score on turnovers. They're going to score on special teams

1383
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 2: where they'll have massive advantages, and there's huge regression coming

1384
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 2: for both on Nevada. Nevada leads the nation in turnovers

1385
01:06:37,360 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 2: forced through three games, and they've played junk and you

1386
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 2: know what Iowa usually never does is turn the ball over.

1387
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 2: You know what. Nevada also leads the country in opponent penalties.

1388
01:06:48,200 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 2: Nevada's opponents have had average one hundred penalty yards per

1389
01:06:50,920 --> 01:06:52,880
Speaker 2: game through three games. I mean, it is insane. And

1390
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:55,880
Speaker 2: then the fluke turnovers, the penalties and they're playing just

1391
01:06:55,920 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 2: complete horrible teams. Iowa should get the offense going a

1392
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 2: little bit here and Spencer Peachers can't do anything in

1393
01:07:02,400 --> 01:07:04,840
Speaker 2: the beginning. They're gonna be a quick cook quarterback change.

1394
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 2: But we've seen Iowa in the past against teams that

1395
01:07:09,840 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 2: can't defend, which is Nevada. Think when they went to

1396
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:17,120
Speaker 2: Maryland and they've put up a fifty spot, there's regression

1397
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:21,040
Speaker 2: coming for this Nevada defense. Iowa's trenches should finally look better.

1398
01:07:21,560 --> 01:07:24,840
Speaker 2: They're just getting all kinds of hate throughout the week.

1399
01:07:24,880 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 2: They should want to lay it on here. They might

1400
01:07:26,600 --> 01:07:29,840
Speaker 2: get here on defensive scores alone against this Nevada offense.

1401
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 2: Give me Iowa minus twenty three. I don't think Nevada

1402
01:07:33,320 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 2: scores without Flukes, and I think Iowa can get the

1403
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:40,320
Speaker 2: twenty eighth here even if it takes fourteen safeties. Give

1404
01:07:40,360 --> 01:07:41,000
Speaker 2: me the Hawkeyes.

1405
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna roll into Georgia for my favorite overdog.

1406
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:46,960
Speaker 2: You know this. You got tired of going Graham Mertz.

1407
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:49,480
Speaker 3: You're like Mertz, I'm gonna go with an offense. I

1408
01:07:49,560 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 3: actually trust that all of a sudden has decided they

1409
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 3: want to play up tempo and be exclusive on offense

1410
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:57,400
Speaker 3: since the defense was supposed to take a step back.

1411
01:07:57,480 --> 01:08:00,760
Speaker 3: But I don't think that they have so backing. I mean,

1412
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 3: this is a game I project well over the number

1413
01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:06,040
Speaker 3: that it's at right now. You can see that in

1414
01:08:06,080 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 3: the steam that's hitting it. This is one of those

1415
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 3: games where there could be seven possessions of seven touchdowns

1416
01:08:11,560 --> 01:08:13,880
Speaker 3: to start the game. And really it's a fate of

1417
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:16,280
Speaker 3: South Carolina. I said that this is the worst trench

1418
01:08:16,320 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 3: in the SEC. They're going to give Vanderbilt a run

1419
01:08:18,360 --> 01:08:20,280
Speaker 3: for their money. But a couple other stats you should

1420
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:22,720
Speaker 3: pay attention to. Right now, South Carolina is outside the

1421
01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:25,400
Speaker 3: top one hundred and tackling. They are one hundred and

1422
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:28,720
Speaker 3: twenty first and havoc allowed. That means they're allowing too

1423
01:08:28,800 --> 01:08:31,920
Speaker 3: many tackles for loss. They're allowing too many sacks. Most

1424
01:08:31,960 --> 01:08:34,480
Speaker 3: of their you know, they've had interceptions, they've had PBUs

1425
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:38,240
Speaker 3: go against them. This South Carolina team is absolutely lost

1426
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 3: and Spencer Rattler is going to have a hard time

1427
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 3: escaping pressure and that's going to turn into mistakes. I'm

1428
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:44,400
Speaker 3: taking Georgia's my favorite overdog.

1429
01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:47,360
Speaker 2: Be careful to Georgia Fens. Last time you were favored

1430
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:52,040
Speaker 2: by twenty four over South Carolina early October twenty nineteen.

1431
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:56,960
Speaker 2: South Carolina wins outright twenty to seventeen in double over time.

1432
01:08:57,000 --> 01:08:58,800
Speaker 2: So I don't know how that happened, but the last

1433
01:08:58,800 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 2: two years forty five, six, forty to thirteen for what

1434
01:09:01,320 --> 01:09:04,120
Speaker 2: it's worth. All right, let's move on to one final

1435
01:09:04,280 --> 01:09:07,280
Speaker 2: order of business, and that's our underdog moneyline.

1436
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:15,080
Speaker 1: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1437
01:09:15,280 --> 01:09:16,759
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1438
01:09:18,360 --> 01:09:20,680
Speaker 2: I'm doing smu here. I think this team I talked

1439
01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:22,840
Speaker 2: about this earlier in the week is still not being

1440
01:09:22,880 --> 01:09:25,479
Speaker 2: properly accounted for in the market. I think this game

1441
01:09:25,520 --> 01:09:27,920
Speaker 2: I actually make them a tiny, tiny favorite here. It's

1442
01:09:28,000 --> 01:09:30,120
Speaker 2: probably a coin flip, so you're gonna give me plus

1443
01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 2: one twenty five plus one thirty and which should be

1444
01:09:32,240 --> 01:09:35,960
Speaker 2: a shootout lots of points here. It's like last one

1445
01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:38,280
Speaker 2: with the ball probably wins this game. So I don't

1446
01:09:38,600 --> 01:09:41,080
Speaker 2: love a ton of underdogs this week to win outright.

1447
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:44,360
Speaker 2: Struggling to find a round robin options like five, so

1448
01:09:44,400 --> 01:09:45,760
Speaker 2: I'm probably gon have a lot of favorites in my

1449
01:09:45,840 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 2: round robin, like small favorites in Washington's your oregons. But

1450
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:55,280
Speaker 2: SMU will definitely be in there. Give me the stangs.

1451
01:09:56,720 --> 01:09:58,599
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go to a twenty twenty one favorit. I'm

1452
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:01,960
Speaker 3: gonna take Western Kentucky to outright against Indiana.

1453
01:10:03,760 --> 01:10:08,680
Speaker 1: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the pride of the Commonwealth.

1454
01:10:10,320 --> 01:10:17,719
Speaker 3: Oh no, no, hell no, oh no, hell no. Nothing

1455
01:10:17,760 --> 01:10:19,760
Speaker 3: Indiana has done so far it has made me believe

1456
01:10:19,760 --> 01:10:21,000
Speaker 3: that they're going to be able to contend in their

1457
01:10:21,000 --> 01:10:24,080
Speaker 3: own conference. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is still running the same

1458
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:27,280
Speaker 3: offense that they had last year post Bailey Zappi era.

1459
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:30,400
Speaker 3: I think the one big mismatch in this game is

1460
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 3: the fact that Western Kentucky is number one in the

1461
01:10:32,160 --> 01:10:34,839
Speaker 3: nation in pass blocking, Indiana is one hundred and fourteenth

1462
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:36,960
Speaker 3: and generating a pass rush and even worse outside the

1463
01:10:37,000 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 3: top one hundred and coverage grading. And then when you

1464
01:10:40,400 --> 01:10:42,400
Speaker 3: look at the other side of the ball, Indiana's offense

1465
01:10:42,439 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 3: has been completely life as they pass more than they

1466
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:46,640
Speaker 3: have actually run the ball. But neither of them have

1467
01:10:46,720 --> 01:10:48,799
Speaker 3: been with success. They're still trying to find an identity

1468
01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 3: on offense that's going to continue throughout the season. You know,

1469
01:10:52,560 --> 01:10:55,839
Speaker 3: a very fast paced game and that suits Western Kentucky

1470
01:10:55,960 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 3: so look for Western Kentucky to have time, clean pockets

1471
01:10:58,400 --> 01:11:00,720
Speaker 3: and hit explosive plays all day like the Miltoppers.

1472
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 2: All right, there you have it. Make sure that you

1473
01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:06,960
Speaker 2: I mean look, we have covered Friday Night Lights, five

1474
01:11:07,040 --> 01:11:11,320
Speaker 2: Markee games, about ten to twelve others, all under an

1475
01:11:11,360 --> 01:11:13,719
Speaker 2: hour and a half. We appreciate all of you listening.

1476
01:11:14,240 --> 01:11:16,679
Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe subscribe, leave a review.

1477
01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:19,559
Speaker 2: By the way, if there's any five star reviews out there, producer,

1478
01:11:19,680 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 2: do you want to give giveaways to? Sure? Thanks?

1479
01:11:22,360 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 5: Duck selected a winner here with the subject best college

1480
01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:32,479
Speaker 5: football podcast. The guys user name is Chuck Q one

1481
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Speaker 5: with four k's, three q's and four ones. These fucking

1482
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:44,240
Speaker 5: names anyway, Chuck, just email podcasts at actionnetwork dot com

1483
01:11:44,520 --> 01:11:45,400
Speaker 5: to claim your prize.

1484
01:11:45,640 --> 01:11:47,840
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Hell and by the way, a group

1485
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:50,720
Speaker 2: of five podcasts which episode is already out. They love

1486
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:54,280
Speaker 2: SMU as well. Make sure you check that out. Shout

1487
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:57,760
Speaker 2: out to bet mgm our sponsor. We will be back

1488
01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:02,439
Speaker 2: early next week Monday morning, the recap the week previous

1489
01:12:02,479 --> 01:12:05,680
Speaker 2: and Thursday games and look ahead to next week. We

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01:12:05,760 --> 01:12:08,599
Speaker 2: also have the new BTES Show with myself Colin Bret

1491
01:12:08,640 --> 01:12:10,880
Speaker 2: mccurvery that comes out on Tuesday mornings. Loved how they

1492
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:12,320
Speaker 2: went last week. It's going to be like twenty to

1493
01:12:12,400 --> 01:12:15,240
Speaker 2: thirty minutes just shooting the shit, little betting talk here

1494
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:18,559
Speaker 2: and there and there, just overall college football, cooler talk,

1495
01:12:19,400 --> 01:12:23,320
Speaker 2: big bets on Campus Live Saturday mornings, ten thirty am Eastern.

1496
01:12:23,360 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 2: We'll go over the card and give our best bets.

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01:12:25,800 --> 01:12:29,720
Speaker 2: Also make sure Shameless plug Action overk podcast. Myself and

1498
01:12:29,800 --> 01:12:32,200
Speaker 2: Chris Raybaud preview the NFL card each week that's out there.

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01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:34,599
Speaker 2: Crushed it last week. Hopefully we can crush it again

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01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:37,439
Speaker 2: this week. But appreciate all of you listening. Thanks to

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01:12:37,520 --> 01:12:40,200
Speaker 2: Colin as always, thanks to our audio and video team

1502
01:12:40,240 --> 01:12:42,320
Speaker 2: on the back end. Appreciate all of your listening and

1503
01:12:42,800 --> 01:12:45,120
Speaker 2: we will catch y'all later.

1504
01:12:45,320 --> 01:12:46,559
Speaker 3: Cheers, peace out,