WEBVTT - Lost Opportunities for Asia’s Lockdown Generation 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:03.480 The plan for me is always learning, find new opportunities, 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:07.360 and never limit yourself. I am always learning, I am 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:12.160 always trying to find new opportunities. If you can say 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:14.560 that you can do that, I think there's nothing to 0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:25.560 be scared of. Hello and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:28.160 that brings the global economy to you. What you heard 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:31.400 there was the voice of youthful optimism twenty year old 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:34.520 punnies from Bangkok. For most of the past fifty years. 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:37.800 That optimism would have been well founded. Any young person 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.240 growing up in one of the fast growing Asian economies 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.879 could expect to end up comfortably better off than their parents. 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.120 But it doesn't feel that way for those just entering 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:51.760 the jobs market in The pandemic has hit job prospects 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:55.080 for young people in Asia hardest of all. They're calling 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:59.680 it the lockdown generation, and Bloomberg Senior Asia Economy correspondent 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.240 end the Current is going to tell us all about 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:05.520 them a little later. But this week I also wanted 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.440 to give you a sneak preview of some smart analysis 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.839 we've been pulling together for Bloomberg's New Economy Forum, which 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:15.880 will be entirely online this year but starts on November six. 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.080 All the Bloomberg economists have been put to work on this. 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.560 Later on we'll hear Eurozone economist may have a Kuzin 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.720 tell us about a project she's done looking at how 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:30.080 climate change could affect the global economy under different scenarios. 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.240 But first, our chief economist, Tom Olig, a great friend 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:35.680 of the podcast, is here to give us an overview 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:40.560 of this special report. Tom, I've got the report in 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:42.880 my hands, hot off the presses. It's going to be 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:46.800 available on the Bloomberg New Economy Forum website any minute now, 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:48.960 which is a rare treat for those of you who 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:52.360 don't usually get to see Bloomberg's economic research. There's so 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:55.680 much here, but I wanted to focus Tom on your 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.480 projections for what the world could look like in twenty 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:03.200 You're a brave man looking that far ahead. But if 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.559 you step back with that kind of long term view, 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:08.920 I guess you can get to the nub of the 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:13.320 big forces driving the global economy. What different scenarios did 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:17.120 you think about? Well, Stephanie, let's keep in mind that 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:19.560 I just published a book called China, The Bubble That 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:23.880 Never Pops, So clearly you're talking to someone who's who's 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.480 not afraid of leaving hostages to fortune. So we're looking 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:30.880 out to the world in and clearly there's a huge 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.840 amount that could change between now and then, and we're 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:39.359 seeing in how a pandemic can shape the trajectory for 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:42.880 major economies. But what we've done is we've used a 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:46.639 growth accounting framework, so we've looked at how demographics is 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.880 going to change, We've looked at the likely pathway for 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:55.359 capital spending and productivity growth, and by doing that, we've 0:02:55.400 --> 0:03:00.680 put together baseline forecasts for GDP growth over the next 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:04.040 three decades. And then we've layered on top of those 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:08.359 scenarios for some of the mega trends globalization, climate change, 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.880 and how they could shape the outlook. So one of 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:13.560 the one of the pieces you did, I guess it's 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.519 a familiar story in a sense, the shift in economic 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:20.160 power from west to East that we expect to see 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.320 happen in that time and that, but the numbers are 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:29.120 quite significant. Yeah, So for the last seventy years, there's 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:33.079 been a period of really remarkable stability in the sort 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:36.640 of the economic balance of power. We've had the US 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:41.040 and Europe firmly in the driving seat, and the intellectual 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:45.480 consensus has been centered around the benefits of free markets 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:51.840 and the power of democracies to drive economic dynamism. Now, 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:55.680 in the last fifteen twenty years, we've seen the beginning 0:03:55.680 --> 0:04:00.560 of a transition. China is rising, India are coming up 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:04.320 behind them. So what our forecast show is that this 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:07.440 is really just the beginning of the transition, and in 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:11.880 the next thirty years we're going to see China, India 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:17.360 other Asian emerging markets like Indonesia rising up the global rankings. 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:20.360 By the time we get to twenty fifty, China will 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:23.480 firmly be in the number one spot, India we think 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:26.159 will be number three and closing the gap with the 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.880 United States, and Indonesia could well be up in the 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:33.680 big league as well. Now, as that happens, it's not 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.880 just a geographical shift, right, It's not just a shift 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:40.640 from west to east, it's also a shift from advanced 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:45.320 economies to emerging markets. And it's a shift from economies 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:49.040 which operate on a free market principle to economies like 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:52.000 China and in a different way, India that have a 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:55.919 much higher degree of state intervention. And that's actually that 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.640 is a very very striking so so what what what's 0:04:58.680 --> 0:05:02.560 the numbers there in terms of the share of the 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:06.040 global economy that, if you like, in democratic hands versus 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:11.520 nondemocratic and how does that change? Um so, um so. 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:16.560 So what we've done is we've interacted our forecasts with 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:22.000 the classifications of different societies by Freedom House, and Freedom 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:26.800 House classify societies into free so that's kind of a 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:31.640 functioning democracy, partly free, so that's the society which has 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:37.120 some democratic um aspect, but you wouldn't characterize it as 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:41.160 a fully functioning economy and not free so that's single 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:45.560 party states. Um and So when we interact our forecasts 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:50.240 with those social classifications, what we see is that the 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:54.600 share of the global economy, which is which is controlled 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:59.680 by free democracies is going to shrink from around eighties 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:06.000 six percent in two thousand two around six and the 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:10.080 share which is controlled by partly free and not free 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:14.240 societies is going to rise all the way up from 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:18.760 about four to about so a huge shift in the 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:22.280 sort of the geographical composition of the global economy, the 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.240 sort of the share of the global economy that's classified 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:29.640 as free market versus state interventionist, but also that political 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:33.400 shift as well, a much larger share of global output 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:37.640 is going to be coming from non democratic states, and 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.040 you've spent a lot of time in China, I mean, 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.600 it is quite I wonder whether you think that the 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:46.880 way that China has responded to the COVID thread could 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:51.920 make even these projections turn out to be an underestimate 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:55.919 of China's what China's standing is going to be in 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:58.440 a few years time. I mean, many people think they 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.400 have vaulted several years a head of the of the 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:05.560 West by being able to manage this crisis so effectively 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:09.160 at a time when particularly the US and Britain was 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:12.640 really floundering. Right So, so one of the things that 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:17.040 could throw these projections off are a major crisis, right um, 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:19.480 and a lot of people look at China and they 0:07:19.520 --> 0:07:22.840 think there's a big financial crisis coming down the road 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:26.640 because China's taken on so much debt, and if that happens, 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.760 clearly it would put a dent in China's growth trajectory. 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:33.240 What we've seen in though, as you know, is this 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:39.440 global pandemic catastrophic impact across major economies, but China has 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:41.560 really come out of it first and come out of 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.080 it fastest. So our forecast is for two percent growth 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:47.480 in China this year. We think they'll come back to 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:51.400 eight percent growth next year. No other major economy is 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:55.040 going to do so well. So ironically, even though the 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:59.280 COVID crisis started in China, when we come out of it, 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:03.120 it could well be that China has accelerated that process 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.240 of narrowing the gap with the United States. Now. One 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.640 view of at least part of what the Trump administration 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:11.480 has been doing the last few years, and we've reported 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:14.720 so much on this podcast, is he was trying to 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:20.120 fight the kind of arithmetic and dynamic that you've just outlined. 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:23.000 He was trying to make sure that the US didn't 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.560 fall behind in terms of its share of global economy, 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:28.000 and quite the same way that you've described. I mean, 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.720 is there anything that the so called West, the US 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:36.679 and Western Europe can do to change the outcome in 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:40.560 in a sort of serious way. Yeah. So there's there's 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.720 a phrase which you often see in Chinese policy documents, 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:49.360 ban hoard um. It's roughly translates as do your own 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.760 work well. Right, the last four years have really been 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:56.840 a period where the US has focused on attacking China. Right, 0:08:56.920 --> 0:09:00.160 let's put tariffs up let's make it harder to old 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:03.920 technologies to China. Let's try and break up big Chinese 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:08.760 internet companies. There hasn't been a lot of investment in 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:12.679 US education, a lot of investment in US infrastructure, a 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.360 lot of investment in US research and development. Now, if 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.280 the US wants to do its own work well and 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:22.719 accelerate great at home, then I think a sort of 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:26.400 a smart strategy would be to continue that advocacy for 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.960 sort of a level playing field free markets globally, but 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:34.120 also make those investments which drive growth potential at home 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:36.760 as well. It's almost a shame that we haven't got 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:40.640 President Trump doing his next summit with the Chinese leader 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:42.800 to be told do your own work well. I think 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:45.199 that would go down extremely well. We should just touch 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.760 on the other piece of this research, which was looking 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:52.160 at the impact over a thirty year timeframe of ath 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:56.120 of less globalization, or indeed a reversal of globalization. There's 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.200 been so much talk about that in the wake of 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:03.800 the both Donald Trump trade policies but also the COVID pandemic. 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:06.640 What what did you find there and what were you 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:11.079 looking at? So um, it's not just US China relations 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:15.360 which are breaking down right. We have Brexit, the UK 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:19.960 stepping away from its trade relationship with the European Union. UM, 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:24.560 we have covid Era concern about control of supply chains. 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.560 Countries which in the first half of this year could 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:32.360 make their own masks and make their own antibiotics and 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:35.439 make their own ventilators were in a better position that 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:39.719 countries than countries which were sourcing those from overseas. So 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:44.160 there's a kind of there's a global trend towards um 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:49.760 deglobalization that is potentially a very serious problem for global growth. 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:53.679 A world where global trade and technology and financial ties 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:58.160 start to splinter is going to be a smaller world 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.840 than a world where they continue you to strengthen, and 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:07.160 it also has distributional consequences. Globalization is good for all countries, 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:11.560 but it's especially good for emerging markets, which are aiming 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.680 to export their way to prosperity and catch up rapidly 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:20.160 to the global technology frontier. So we explored a couple 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:24.520 of scenarios, one where global ties continue to strengthen, and 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.720 one where global ties splinter, back to the level in 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:32.600 two thousand, just before China joined the w t O, 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:38.920 just as Europe was creating its single currency. The consequences 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.600 of that for the consert The difference between those two 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:46.280 scenarios for global growth is really enormous. The negative impact 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:50.760 of deglobalization is much more severe for those emerging markets, 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:53.880 places like China, places like Vietnam. And I was going 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.000 to ask you that, So, who are the biggest losers? 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:58.920 Are those countries? I guess who would have otherwise have 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:03.160 done the best on the integration scenario. Yeah, it's the 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.400 it's your it's your Asian it's the Asian emerging markets. 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:10.920 It's China, it's Vietnam. A bit further up the development spectrum, 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:14.040 it's Korea. It's the countries that have done the best 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:20.280 from gaining global export market share and absorbing foreign technologies. 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.720 They're the biggest winners from globalization. They'd be the biggest 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:28.400 losers if globalization now spins into reverse. Tom Warlick, thank 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:36.000 you very much. Great to be in, Stephanie. Well, we're 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:39.320 not assuming that globalization will go into reverse. But the 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:42.680 COVID crisis has given young people in Asia a taste 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.600 of a world in which all the economic opportunities have 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:50.280 suddenly dried up. They're calling it the lockdown generation. Bloomberg's 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:56.720 and the current has more here in Hong Kong. While 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.640 the pandemic is under control, the economy remains in recession. 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.840 Unemployment is that a fifteen year high, and youth unemployment 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:09.000 has surged during the crisis. Of course, the story of 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:12.960 youth unemployment is playing out across the Asia region, a 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.959 part of the world that is home to a majority 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.680 of those aged fifteen to twenty four. It's why the 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:24.360 Asian Development Bank and International Labor Organization are warning of 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:28.360 a lockdown generation. We reached out to young people and 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:32.120 experts across the region to gauge how deep this job's 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:37.360 crisis is. Vincent Laud, aged twenty, is among those in 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:40.760 Hong Kong who's unemployed and looking for work, in his case, 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:44.240 possibly as a waiter. It's very hard to find you all. 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:48.559 Now when Padelica comes in, a lot of a lot 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.800 of comedies start to firing the employee. I kind of 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.360 afraid of unlocking any job you guys, I don't think 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.760 they got hired too much people. Yeah, I'm not expecting 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:04.120 to a job player soon. I spoke with Felix Weibenkoff 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.760 of the International Labor Organization, who is based in Bangkok. 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.120 So the COVID nineteen pandemic has led to a massive 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:15.080 disruption to the economies and labor markets in in Asia Pacific, 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:19.080 and we found that they have disproportionate impacts on unused employment, 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:23.960 now threatening to create a lockdown generation. The regions fast 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.440 growing economies for decades have offered millions of young people 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.880 the chance to do better than their parents, a path 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:35.080 to upward mobility now at risk as youth unemployment source. 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.760 Young people are losing jobs at a faster rate than 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:42.040 older generations because almost half are clustered in the four 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:46.640 economic sectors hurt most by the COVID nineteen pandemic wholesale 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:51.480 and retail, manufacturing, business services, and accommodation and food. Young 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.720 women and the poorest are hardest hit, and there are 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:58.480 several underlying factors why used in Asia Pacific are particularly 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.800 vulnerable as and the Pacific region is home to the 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:05.600 majority of the world's young people aged fifteen to twenty four, 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:09.080 and as such their contribution is is key to the 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:18.320 region's productivity and also inclusive development. Panic super Plan is 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:21.000 a twenty year old from Bangkok who wanted to turn 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:25.440 his love of aviation into a career by studying aerospace engineering. 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:29.520 Those plans are now far from certain after COVID halted 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.960 much of global air travel. That the pandemic just like 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:37.000 change everything that I have thought about my career because 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.480 aviation was supposed to be one of those industry that 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:45.320 was going substantially before COVID, and I thought that Thailand 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.680 is kind of like the central hub of Asia, so 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.760 I figured it might be good if I pursued this 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:53.720 career path. While Panas is hopeful that the aviation sector 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.400 eventually gets back in the air, he's also looking at 0:15:56.440 --> 0:16:00.160 his options if aviation was not possible. I have so 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:04.600 considered other fields of engineering, like the energy field, which 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:08.080 I already sent some applications to. So this is my 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:12.160 alternative plan right now. The impact goes beyond headline rates 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:16.200 of unemployment. Professor way John gene Young, founding director of 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.920 the Center for Family and Population Research at the National 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.400 University of Singapore, warned that this crisis will strain relations 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:27.000 with older generations. It puts young people's mental health at 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.680 risk and is shaping up to be worse than previous 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:35.240 jobs crisis. And it's not just use unemployment. There's the underemployment, 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.920 people who cannot find jobs, set up for something less 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:45.800 well paid and work fewer hours. There's also people who 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:50.680 get discouraged of looking for jobs that becomes I don't. 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:55.680 So there are various ways that this pandemic is making 0:16:55.840 --> 0:17:02.440 the impact of economic recession much worse than young people. Uh, 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:04.960 you know, in a way that's much worse than any 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:09.800 other UH age groups. She highlights the impact on younger women, 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:13.640 especially who are forcing to unpaid labor at home as 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:16.520 they fall out of the workforce. You know, a woman, 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:21.080 this is particularly hard. Uh. Many of them would just 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:27.640 become um someone in the statistics that are not in employment, 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:32.639 education or training because of the labor market, but also 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:44.000 because of unpaid work demand at home. Even in China, 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:47.479 where the economic recovery is most advanced, the government has 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.760 warned that the jobless rate among young workers remains high. 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.760 In Japan, companies are cutting back on hiring and the 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.720 new graduates are losing their chance for long term employment. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.320 Julia Re simply completed her internship at a big tech 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:05.399 company in Beijing, and there's now in Japan or she 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:09.600 plans to finish her post graduate studies. She's hoping for 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.520 a job in media or digital content at some of 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:16.359 Chinese technology joints, but she's already noticed that there are 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:20.000 fewer roles on offer. When she first graduated in two 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:25.040 thousand nineteen, jobs were plentiful compared with right now. I 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:32.119 think the competition is much fiercer than before because there 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:36.080 are so many graduates who should have fand a job 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:40.320 in twenty but didn't. Before the start of my job hunting, 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:46.680 I planned to apply for some potations in some internet companies. 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.680 UH this year, I found that this kind of job 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:55.640 not available anymore. The COVID nineteen shock is creating a 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:59.080 class of new poor across East Asia and the Pacific 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.040 Core into the World Bank, thirty eight million more people 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:08.040 will be living in poverty. In to counter long term scaring, 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.280 why didn't have at the isle O says, governments need 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:15.240 to pour money into education and skill training. The pathway 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.359 is that a lot of young people might have taken 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:20.480 when in Asia Pacific when they entered the labor market 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:23.080 that is now being disruptive was that used to be 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:26.800 insectors that are now most impacted, such as the wholesale 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:32.240 and retail trade and manufacturing. Governments need to adopt and 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:35.680 and implement immediate, large scale and and targeted measures to 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:40.480 stimulate economy and use employment. Essentially, that has to do 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.760 with the fact that it is now critical to prioritize 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.720 youth employment if if you want the region to come 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:52.360 out with more inclusive and sustainable growth. And the concern 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:55.360 we have this stage is that this will have long 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:58.280 lasting impacts and the current crisis on the labor market 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.120 outcomes of youth in the each And we know from 0:20:01.320 --> 0:20:04.840 um the previous financial crisis in Asia and the Pacific 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:09.080 that they use unemployment rate never recovered to pre global 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:14.000 financial crisis level of of two thousand and and seven. 0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:18.080 What is different now is the crisis due to COVID 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:21.879 nineteen is much more widespread on both the labor demand 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:25.359 and supply side. When I intervide young people for this podcast, 0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:28.800 I was struked by their optimism that this crisis will 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:33.240 pass eventually. Money like planets per plan say that they 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.159 want to be ready to embrace whatever opportunities comes along. 0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.920 It's a hopeful note in an uncertain time. The plan 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:44.200 for me is always learning final opportunities and never limit yourself. 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:48.920 Maybe the plan I thought about the energy like renewable 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:53.159 energy might not work for the next month, next year's whatever. 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:57.320 But I am always learning. I am always trying to 0:20:57.359 --> 0:21:01.440 find new opportunities. If you can say that you can 0:21:01.440 --> 0:21:03.960 do that, I think there's nothing to be scared off 0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:21.199 for Bloomberg News. I'm and the current mm I mentioned 0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.960 that our Eurozone economist may have a Kuza, who has 0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:27.520 been on the podcast a few times, had contributed a 0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:31.960 climate piece to this special New Economy Forum report. She 0:21:32.119 --> 0:21:36.040 worked with the chief Emire economist Jamie Rush on this project. 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:38.760 But maybe tell me briefly what you did and some 0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:43.080 of the broad brush conclusions. Yes. Thanks, So we've looked 0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:46.240 at the cust of climate change, not just the physical 0:21:46.320 --> 0:21:49.160 cost of climate change, but also the coust of transitioning 0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:52.400 to a low carbon economy to a very those physical 0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:55.840 cross from climate change, and so we've used so scenarios 0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:59.360 developed the base the n JFS and network of Central 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.800 banks for being the financial sector, and we've focused on 0:22:02.960 --> 0:22:06.280 three main scenarios. One is to do nothing scenario. It's 0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:10.320 a hot planet scenario. It's a case where UM policies 0:22:10.440 --> 0:22:13.640 simply continuous they are now no more and that would 0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:17.679 mean in temperatureizing to about probably two degrees above pre 0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:22.040 industrial times by twenty fifty and four degrees based with 0:22:22.119 --> 0:22:25.320 than one and tread. And then there are two transition 0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:28.200 scenarios along the lines of the Paris Agreements, so to 0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:32.240 capt temperature at two degrees celsius um and that with 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:35.680 one olderly scenario that starts now and it's gradual and 0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:39.439 it's times for the technology to mature, and when disorderly 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:44.080 scenario which is delayed until twenty thirty. And then we 0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:49.600 looked at the different trajectories for different countries, which allowed 0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:54.120 us to um estimate the costs for various countries rather 0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.520 than just global. There's lots here and it's hard to 0:22:57.560 --> 0:23:00.560 go into the into the details of the lots of 0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.560 people knit picking at it. I did notice one big 0:23:03.600 --> 0:23:06.400 thing which is obviously also quite worrying when you think 0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:09.600 about the political economy of this is some of the 0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:12.080 biggest economy is the ones that we look to now 0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:14.159 and we know we're going to be really important for 0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:18.439 this effort are ones that will not benefit from the 0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:21.520 mitigation efforts for quite a long time. So you've got 0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:23.879 them having to spend quite a lot of money or 0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:28.320 at least sacrifice a certain amount of growth. For some 0:23:28.440 --> 0:23:31.560 period before they get to see the benefits of that 0:23:31.720 --> 0:23:34.760 of that cooler planet. Yes, that's right. I mean the 0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:36.760 problem is that the cust of claim a change of 0:23:36.800 --> 0:23:41.640 physical crist the conquest from hotter temperatures are are quite 0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:44.680 slow moving and it's difficult to descend thing of them 0:23:44.680 --> 0:23:47.879 to really notice them, and they become more and more important. 0:23:48.000 --> 0:23:51.440 But according to these scenarios, they did already quest test 0:23:51.480 --> 0:23:54.399 about one percent of GDPs of today, so even the 0:23:54.480 --> 0:23:57.480 world was not so hot already, we would be maybe 0:23:57.520 --> 0:24:00.560 a one percent how your GDP, and then by twenty 0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:05.040 fifties estimate around three percent extract supercent extractors, so cost 0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:07.760 of three percent in total and then ten percent by 0:24:07.800 --> 0:24:12.080 twenty one dread. But these are central causes, are chronickers. 0:24:12.119 --> 0:24:14.280 There are of course a lot of uncertainty. It could 0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:17.399 be um in the In these estimates they go up 0:24:17.400 --> 0:24:19.800 to maybe twenty five percent cost by to son and 0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:23.080 one dread. So there's this big uncertainty on the cost 0:24:23.600 --> 0:24:26.840 of claimate change and the fact that they are gradually 0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:29.280 increasing and maybe they will building being point where they 0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:34.119 start increasing even faster the cost of transition or or 0:24:34.200 --> 0:24:37.640 more um front cloded. So a lot of the transition 0:24:37.680 --> 0:24:40.240 costs would happen at the start of the transition. Even 0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:43.399 in the orderly transition, they would be around two percent 0:24:43.480 --> 0:24:46.679 by twenty fifty estimated, and then they would go up 0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:49.600 to maybe three four percent by than one dread. So 0:24:49.680 --> 0:24:52.320 they are very much frontlodied. And what happens is that 0:24:52.840 --> 0:24:55.960 the focus being on the next thirty years, it looks 0:24:56.240 --> 0:25:00.400 cheaper globally to do nothing than to start the position. 0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:03.640 But of course an one hundred and so it means 0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:09.040 that probably it quite given where it becomes more expensive, 0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:12.440 more cheaper to do something than do nothing is around 0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:14.720 to than D sixty nine, which is already quite late 0:25:15.240 --> 0:25:18.200 in terms of global GDP two day. But then if 0:25:18.240 --> 0:25:20.399 you if you look at the U S or the U, 0:25:20.920 --> 0:25:24.280 it's more like to to than a ninety to extand 0:25:24.280 --> 0:25:28.879 and one hundred um. So it's short for short stated policymakers, 0:25:28.960 --> 0:25:30.800 and you don't have to be I mean even quite 0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:34.159 long sighted. Once we're talking about seventy years ahead, and 0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:36.840 that's that's a big challenge. If there was a central planner, 0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:40.080 we would probably be uh. I think we would have 0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:44.320 started quite a long time ago acty. But but in 0:25:44.440 --> 0:25:48.440 those current circumstances, the coordination is a key challenge. But 0:25:48.640 --> 0:25:51.240