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Speaker 1: What's up, guys, how are you?

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Speaker 2: It's time for a Tuesday morning episode of the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrault. You guys can

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Speaker 2: follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matton. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: the sixth day winning streak came to a close. I

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Speaker 2: was concerned that the game could go against us if

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Speaker 2: we got it really wrong, it was going to be

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Speaker 2: a losing day, and that is what happened. Seattle covers

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Speaker 2: They get there for us. That was the only win.

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Speaker 2: The Bucks got housed. We came nowhere near forty six

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Speaker 2: and a half or fifty two and a half. The

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Speaker 2: injury to Mike Evans was brutal that it's really bad

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Speaker 2: news for our bet on the Bucks to win the division.

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Speaker 2: That was an injury that Thank goodness they have Abuka

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Speaker 2: and thank goodness they have Baker, but my gosh, that's

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Speaker 2: a brutal injury to break his clavical He has gone

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Speaker 2: for the rest of the regular season. How much of

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Speaker 2: the playoffs if the Bucks make it, would he be

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Speaker 2: a part of We don't know. But that is not

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Speaker 2: an injury you just come back from. That is a

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Speaker 2: highly painful injury. The concussion was bad enough for Mike Evans,

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Speaker 2: but really a bummer for one of the great wide

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Speaker 2: outs in the history of the NFL. To have his

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Speaker 2: one thousand yard streak end and really his season end on.

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Speaker 1: A play like that.

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Speaker 2: That's really unfortunate for Mike Evans, so bad news for

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Speaker 2: the Bucks. There we go one and two on the day,

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Speaker 2: we are down one point three to five units. So

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Speaker 2: we start the week off down, but we had a

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Speaker 2: very good week last week, so let's pick it back up.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to the NBA. So if you were with

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Speaker 2: us last year, you know how this goes. The NBA

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Speaker 2: has been extremely profitable for us with the prop cheat sheet.

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Speaker 2: We have been dominant, I even would say with NBA

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Speaker 2: prop betting over the last couple of years, thanks largely

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Speaker 2: in part to the prop bet cheat sheet. We've told

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Speaker 2: you about betting prost premium for a while. This is

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Speaker 2: where I pull the bets from for the prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat sheet, and it's been just you know, last year,

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Speaker 2: just to give you an idea, in twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: for US, we wound up eighty four and seventy two

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Speaker 2: for the year in twenty twenty four, that's fifty four

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Speaker 2: percent in twenty twenty five this year in the NBA,

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Speaker 2: so it's last season. Heading into this year, we wound

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Speaker 2: up going forty five and thirty one, that's fifty nine percent,

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Speaker 2: and the NBA prop bets went sixty six and thirty four,

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Speaker 2: that is sixty six percent, So we are basically sixty

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Speaker 2: percent hitting in the NBA twenty four and twenty five.

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Speaker 1: This has been the sport that has been the most.

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Speaker 2: Profitable for this podcast over the last eighteen months, more

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Speaker 2: than that, really twenty months. So now we go back

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Speaker 2: to the NBA, so it's an all NBA podcast today.

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Speaker 2: I've got three NBA futures for win totals to give you,

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Speaker 2: and I have got two plays on the two games

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Speaker 2: happening tonight in the NBA. I got nothing on hockey

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Speaker 2: Florida and Brad mar Shan playing at Boston. That the

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Speaker 2: numbers one sixty. It's really expensive. I don't really want

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Speaker 2: to get involved with that, but Florida and Regulation is

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Speaker 2: probably a pretty good bet against the Bruins given what

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Speaker 2: Boston has looked like. But the totals five and a half,

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Speaker 2: you know the Bruins are going to be up when

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Speaker 2: they see Marshan. So that's the only real fun hockey

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Speaker 2: game for tonight, and baseball obviously not starting yet. Congrats

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Speaker 2: to the Blue Jays make it into the World Series,

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Speaker 2: George Springer with that three run home run in the

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Speaker 2: eighth or seventh unbelievable. First time since nineteen ninety three,

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Speaker 2: the Blue Jays are back into the World Series. Ninety

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Speaker 2: three is also the last time a Canadian team won

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Speaker 2: the Stanley Cup, so ninety three is a big number,

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Speaker 2: a big year for Canada. So we'll see how things go.

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Speaker 2: But I don't like the chances for the Blue Jays.

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Speaker 2: As I told you, I wasn't all excited about this

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Speaker 2: World Series because it feels like a formality. I don't

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Speaker 2: think the Blue Jays have much of a shot. Hey

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Speaker 2: been wrong before, but don't think they have much of

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Speaker 2: a shot here up against this juggernaut that is the

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Speaker 2: La Dodgers. Before we get into the picks, that's remind

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Speaker 2: you about our friends at hard Rock Bet. It is

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Speaker 2: NBA Action opening night. Hard Rock Bet the presenting sponsor

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Speaker 2: are going on.

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Speaker 1: The Warriors have.

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Speaker 2: Won and covered the spread in seven straight games as

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Speaker 2: a road favorite against the Western Conference. The thunder have

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Speaker 2: won six in a row at home, also against the

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Speaker 2: for the NBA. I'm betting the over on the Boston

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Speaker 2: Celtics forty one and a half. Not just because I'm

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Speaker 2: wearing a Celtics championship hat, not just because I'm a Homer,

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Speaker 2: but because I believe in Joe Missoula. I am a big,

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Speaker 2: big believer in him as a head coach. We talked

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Speaker 2: about this going into different seasons, like when I was

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Speaker 2: talking about the Bruins or I was talking about the Cardinals.

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Speaker 2: In baseball, There's just certain franchises that I Am not

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Speaker 2: gonna bet the under when the total is really low,

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Speaker 2: in particular around five hundred or worse. The Boston Celtics

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Speaker 2: have Jalen Brown. The Boston Celtics are going to get

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Speaker 2: Jason Tatum back, and I've made this prediction that he

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Speaker 2: will play before Easter.

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Speaker 1: He will be playing with the Boston Celtics.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it's not going to surprise me if Jason

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Speaker 2: Tatum is back by Saint Patrick's Day playing for the

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Speaker 2: Boston Celtics. The injury that he suffered was brutal, but

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Speaker 2: the surgery has taken He is already on the basketball court.

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Speaker 2: He is already working out. It's October you're telling me

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Speaker 2: that five or six months from now, Jason Tatum is

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Speaker 2: not going to play for the Boston Celtics in the NBA.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, don't buy it.

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Speaker 2: I also think that Jalen Brown can be an effective

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Speaker 2: number one. I also think that Peyton Pritchard and other

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Speaker 2: players can step up. The loss of Al Horford stinks

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Speaker 2: from a leadership standpoints. I don't love that, But I

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Speaker 2: do think Boston's going to be better than a five

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Speaker 2: hundred basketball team, even without the wonderful, amazing Jason Tatum,

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Speaker 2: and the reason will be defense.

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Speaker 1: I think Joe Missoula is going to mug people this year.

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Speaker 2: I think Boston is going to be one of the

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Speaker 2: most physical teams in the NBA, and Joe Mizula is

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Speaker 2: gonna let loose on this defensive effort. Unders in Celtics

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Speaker 2: games are going to be an absolute cash cow. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Boston is going to lock down. They're also not going

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Speaker 2: to score a ton themselves, Okay, but I expect a

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Speaker 2: tremendous defensive effort out of this Celtics team that's going

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Speaker 2: to be much different than the three point shooting loving

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Speaker 2: NBA that everyone plays this up tempo Jack and threes.

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Speaker 1: I think Joe Mozoula is going to go and.

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Speaker 2: Walk into this fight with a club and start swinging

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Speaker 2: at people. Over Celtics forty one and a half team

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Speaker 2: total win. I think they wind up winning forty four

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Speaker 2: to forty five. Heck, maybe even fifty games depending on

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Speaker 2: how things shake out for the Boston Celtics. Now the

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Speaker 2: Lakers play tonight, the Lakers are going to be without

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Speaker 2: Lebron James. The question is going to be how long?

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Speaker 2: For how long would they be without Lebron James. Forty

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Speaker 2: seven and a half is the win total for the

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Speaker 2: LA Lakers. At some point this all comes to a

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Speaker 2: crashing end. I fully understand that JJ Reddick has a

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Speaker 2: team that will be built around Luka Doncic, who looks

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Speaker 2: like he's in the best shape of his life, which

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Speaker 2: is great, okay, But if Lebron can't be anywhere close

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Speaker 2: to being a robin, let alone a sidekick, let alone

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Speaker 2: a leader, let alone a batman for his roster, if

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Speaker 2: he's forty and the age just catches up with him

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Speaker 2: and he looks tired at the end of last year,

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Speaker 2: if it's just too much for him, this Western Conference

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Speaker 2: is no joke. Okasee is not going to rest. The

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Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets are going to be good, like really good.

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Speaker 2: The Rockets are going to be great. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: Western Conference is so incredibly deep at the moment. The

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Speaker 2: Thunder could very well go and win sixty five games.

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Speaker 2: The Rockets could win sixty games, The Nuggets could win

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Speaker 2: fifty five.

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Speaker 1: The Clippers will be in the conversation like they always are.

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Speaker 2: The Timberwolves will still be really good. I like the

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Speaker 2: Warriors more than most people. The Dallas Mavericks are not

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Speaker 2: going to be bad. The Dallas Mavericks and Cooper Flag

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Speaker 2: could be right there competing for a playoff spot and

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Speaker 2: maybe even getting out of the play in tournaments like

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a very difficult season. And

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Speaker 2: Lakers went fifty to thirty two last year, thankful, mostly

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Speaker 2: thanks to their home record, where they went thirty one

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Speaker 2: to ten last year at Staples Crypto whatever the hell

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Speaker 2: they're calling that building now.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not a believer.

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Speaker 2: I'm just not a believer that they're going to be

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Speaker 2: a team that look forty seven and a half wins

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Speaker 2: that means they win forty eight forty nine to fifty wins.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be as good as

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Speaker 2: last year. I just don't DeAndre Eton coming over. I okay,

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Speaker 2: I mean I'm not impressed. I'm not until I see it.

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Speaker 2: I don't believe it with DeAndre Ayton, I just don't

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Speaker 2: think the Lakers are going to be nearly as good

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Speaker 2: as people think. Plus you have load management with Lebron

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Speaker 2: and Luca. It's just about getting into the playoffs. Give

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Speaker 2: me the under. I'm going under forty seven and a

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Speaker 2: half wins for the La Lakers here going up into

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Speaker 2: the season. And finally the Orlando Magic. I'm a believer.

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Speaker 2: I'm a believer in Orlando. Look, this franchise hasn't won

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Speaker 2: fifty two or more games in forever. They've only done

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Speaker 2: it four times in their his and Shack was a

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Speaker 2: big part of all those teams. Orlando last year went

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Speaker 2: five hundred, forty one and forty one. They were twenty

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Speaker 2: two and nineteen at home, they were nineteen and twenty

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Speaker 2: two on the road. They had basically a flat point

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Speaker 2: differential point one point differential. They were one of the

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Speaker 2: worst three point shooting teams that we have seen in

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Speaker 2: a long time. But this is Panchero, this is Wagner,

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Speaker 2: this is Bain. This is a team that should step

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Speaker 2: up and really take a nice step forward.

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Speaker 1: Look. I like where the Magic are.

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Speaker 2: I like the efficiency that they have on offense, and

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Speaker 2: I really like their defense. I like defensive teams this

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Speaker 2: year because no one really is paying defense. Okay, no

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Speaker 2: one is stepping up, and no one's playing hard nosed defense.

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Speaker 2: And Desmond Bain back to his Memphis Grizzly days, He's

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Speaker 2: a hard nosed defensive player. Paul Pinchero and friends Wagner

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Speaker 2: have got to be the two best players on this

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Speaker 2: roster and they have to stay healthy. But if they do,

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Speaker 2: bain shooting should help, and I think defensively they're going

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Speaker 2: to be a really big problem.

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Speaker 1: Okay, this is.

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Speaker 2: A team that had so many injuries that derailed their

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Speaker 2: upcoming trek through the playoffs, and yet they still were

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Speaker 2: a team that were a problem and they still push

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Speaker 2: Boston in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I just think this is going.

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Speaker 2: To be a great season in Orlando and we might

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Speaker 2: be seeing one of the emergence of a new power

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Speaker 2: in the Eastern Conference in the Orlando Magic. I'm betting

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Speaker 2: the over on Orlando. I'm a believer over fifty and

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Speaker 2: a half wins for the Orlando Magic. So three season

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Speaker 2: long plays in the NBA, Celtics over forty one and

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Speaker 2: a half wins, Lakers under forty seven and a half wins,

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Speaker 2: and the Orlando Magic over fifty and a half wins.

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Speaker 2: Before I give you the plays for to on opening night,

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Speaker 2: and there are two games to talk about here tonight

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Speaker 2: against the Rockets, and I really like the Rockets. I

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Speaker 2: do Kevin Durant going over there, really like the Rockets.

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Speaker 2: Here's the thing span or night.

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Speaker 1: In Oklahoma City.

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Speaker 2: I started watching the Netflix show starting five last night,

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Speaker 2: and it's a really cool look at Shay Gillis Alexander

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Speaker 2: rating MVP and what makes him go, what makes him tick?

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Speaker 1: The Thunder were pretty much every home game they were

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Speaker 1: seven and a.

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Speaker 2: Half point favorites. Like it was just like rinse and repeat,

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. Because the professionals they don't like

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Speaker 2: betting more than seven because it's three possessions, and so

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Speaker 2: you start going, ah, that's more than three possessions. That's

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Speaker 2: you know, three threes or you know, two threes in

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Speaker 2: a buckets. They don't like three possessions, so that number

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Speaker 2: gives them pause. The Thunder last year were thirty five

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Speaker 2: seventeen at home against the spread. At home, they killed

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Speaker 2: people at home. They were a team that you know,

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Speaker 2: look as a money line favorite. They were tremendous. They

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Speaker 2: were favored in seventy nine of eighty two games last year.

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Speaker 2: They went sixty six and thirteen in those games. Incredible

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Speaker 2: when they were a money line favorite of minus two

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Speaker 2: ninety four or shorter. Last year they were forty four

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Speaker 2: and eight straight up eighty five percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: So at home with a big number, new season, I

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Speaker 2: got you. But they win this game? The Thunder win

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Speaker 2: this game? Do they win this game by seven and

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Speaker 2: a half, eight nine, ten points. Yeah, because I think

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Speaker 2: what they do in the fourth quarter is ridiculous. I

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Speaker 2: do think that will carry over. I do think that's

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Speaker 2: consistent as to what they do when they play.

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Speaker 1: And early in the year. Last year, I mean.

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Speaker 2: The Thunder were just taking people apart. And I think

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Speaker 2: on Banner Night, I can't fade these guys. I don't

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Speaker 2: like laying seven and a half points. I just think

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Speaker 2: the Thunder are going to be the Thunder. But without

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Speaker 2: Fred van Fleet, I mean that's a huge loss to them.

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Speaker 2: I mean they get to get used to who the

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Speaker 2: point guard is going to be for this team. All

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Speaker 2: the leadership that the van Fleet had last year with

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Speaker 2: Ime Adoka, those two guys were just on the same level.

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Speaker 1: They were so good together.

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Speaker 2: So I do think there's going to be some of

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Speaker 2: a feeling out pross As coming up here. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Jaylen Williams is not playing for the Thunder. That's a

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Speaker 2: big loss as well. But Sga is playing. The size

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Speaker 2: of the Rockets. They're going to be one of the

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Speaker 2: biggest teams in the NBA and that's going to be

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Speaker 2: problematic for anybody. And let's see what Kevin Durant looks

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Speaker 2: like in Game one and and let's him and SGA.

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Speaker 2: They have a great relationship. You see it on the

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Speaker 2: starting five, like they just they talk to each other.

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Speaker 1: Obviously.

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Speaker 2: You know this is Okac where Kevin Durant started his

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Speaker 2: NBA career, where ultimately and there's some great stuff on

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Speaker 2: the show about how James Harden was traded away when

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Speaker 2: it was Hardened Westbrook and Durant, how all three of

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Speaker 2: them are still pissed off that that trade happened, that

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Speaker 2: that shouldn't have been with the case.

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Speaker 1: They should have kept going. They've gotten to know, three.

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Speaker 2: Straight deep runs in the postseason, not winning a championship,

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Speaker 2: but they thought that fourth.

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Speaker 1: Year was going to be the charm.

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Speaker 2: I'll lay it. It's not comfortable. It's not a comfortable lay,

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Speaker 2: but I'll lay it. Seven and a half thunder against

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Speaker 2: the Rockets at minus seven and a half to the

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Speaker 2: Lake game. I told you I don't like the Lakers

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Speaker 2: and a night number one, I don't like the Lakers.

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Speaker 2: The Warriors are going into this season where I love

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Speaker 2: the addition of Al Horford. I love that Jimmy Butler

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Speaker 2: has a whole season now with the Warriors. I do

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Speaker 2: think that Steph Curry continues to play at a very

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Speaker 2: high level. I still think Draymond Green is going to

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Speaker 2: be good. I think John Kamunga can keep on developing

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Speaker 2: here for this roster, and they have Steve Kerr. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I think the Warriors are going to be better than

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Speaker 2: people think.

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Speaker 1: And they got hot at the end of last year.

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Speaker 2: If you remember, the Warriors ended up with a forty

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Speaker 2: eight and thirty four record last year, and it's somewhat

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Speaker 2: surprising when you stop and think about it. The Warriors

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Speaker 2: win total for this coming season is forty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half, pretty much what they did last year. So

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Speaker 2: they were in the play in tournament. But if they

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Speaker 2: keep rolling with the way they roll. At the end

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Speaker 2: of last year, they won seven or the last ten games.

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Speaker 2: They just recovered after a very bad start. They were great.

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Speaker 2: Once they acquired Jimmy Butler. Things changed. Now they have

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler for an entire season. The Lakers do not

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Speaker 2: have Lebron James. I mean who they play Browny. I mean, like,

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Speaker 2: come on, I don't like this matchup at all. I

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Speaker 2: like the Warriors lay in two points here. It's basically

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Speaker 2: just a money line play, they take the Warriors, give

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Speaker 2: me the Warriors minus two for one point one units.

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Speaker 2: So plays for today for US Celtics over forty one

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Speaker 2: and a half wins, Lakers under forty seven and a

359
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 2: half wins, Magic over fifty and a half wins. You

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00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 2: can bet those as much as you want. Officially, we

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Speaker 2: just take it for one unit to win a unit,

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Speaker 2: So up to you on once you want to lay

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00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 2: down Thunder minus seven and a half for one point

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00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 2: one units and the Warriors minus two on the road

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Speaker 2: against the Lakers for one point one units. My name

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Speaker 2: is Matt Parolt, you guys and follow me across all

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00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 2: my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning even when

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Speaker 2: the NBA is back.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice podcast.