WEBVTT - Midterms, COP27, and Morning Movers (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.560 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Election Day. Here, folks 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:26.800 around the world are paying attention to this midterm elections. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:29.120 Uh here in the United States, We're gonna check in 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.000 with one of those, Dr Julie Norman, co director of 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.560 the u c L Center on US Politics at University 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:39.000 College London. She's got a PhD from American University. That's 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:41.599 kind of good, but the real claim to fame from 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:45.440 my perspective is she is a graduate of Duke and 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.640 we are one of our Katie. Yes, we won last 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:49.920 night's for one Another. So here comes Duke and here 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:52.640 comes Dr Julie Norman. Julie, So from your side of 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:54.600 the pond, you guys have had a lot of going 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.760 on political wise in the UK, but I'd love to 0:00:57.800 --> 0:01:00.440 get your sense of just kind of what are really 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:04.120 focusing on here in these midterm elections. Well, yeah, I 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.560 mean it's it's hard to have a distraction for US politics. 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.080 But at UK, the UK politics did did take our 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.960 attention for a while, That's all I must say. But 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:14.000 but I mean we we really are focused on the 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.120 U s. Of course this week everyone over here is 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:19.600 watching the elections very closely as well. Um, you like 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.920 everyone expecting Republicans to take back control but at least 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:26.040 part of Congress, you know, if not all of it. 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:29.280 And you a lot of people in Europe and Allies 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.760 especially wondering what this means for US foreign policy and 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:36.839 also just for democracy in America more broadly and by association, 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.679 democracy for the whole world. So I think a lot 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:41.920 of things are at at play here. I think most 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:45.080 voters are, of course, focusing more on inflation, economy, the 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.560 more day to day issues, but the world watching this 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:50.040 election is seeing some of these, uh, these bigger issues 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:53.240 play out as well. And I mean, if you had 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.120 to rank them, you just ran through some of them. 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.960 Obviously from the perspective of a markets journalist, inflation is 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:02.800 a pretty big deal from my perspective. But what's on 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:05.840 the ballot here? What is the most pressing issue from 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:09.800 the perspective of the average American voter right now. Well, 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:13.120 I think obviously disinflation and this rising cost of living. 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.440 I mean, that's something that no one can escape, and 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:17.600 people are just feeling at this day to day level. 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:22.119 You know, Democrats have obviously tried to push the democracy message. 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:25.160 I think abortion gave them a big bump in the summer. 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.880 But in terms of what is actually going to get 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.200 voters out to the polls and actually convince those swing voters, 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:33.680 those who don't already know how they're voting, is going 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:35.519 to be the economy and how people are feeling this 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:39.160 on a day to day basis. So, Julie, you know, 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.639 I guess we're gonna wake up tomorrow we'll know some stuff, 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:44.520 but we've been told by a lot of folks that 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:46.040 follow the stuff that we're not gonna know for several 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:49.079 days on some of these races, but presumably a lot 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.400 of the focus will switch tomorrow to election. How do 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.960 you think, you know, what are something that takeaways from 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.480 maybe what might be a Republican sweep here? Uh today? 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:02.760 What does that mean for the Biden administration? Yeah, so 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:05.160 I do think you know, this is obviously what happens 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:08.680 today will lay the groundwork for four. Um. I think 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.919 it will really be sort of a rough rundom on Biden, 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:15.880 of course, and really start serious conversations about if he 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:18.359 will run in twenty four and what that means for him, 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:21.960 as we've heard today a likely announcement sooner rather than 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:25.079 later from Trump, and what that with these midterms will 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.560 mean for for his momentum perhaps going forward with the candidacy, 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:31.480 and of course just the reality that there will be 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.360 a lot of a lot of individuals who doubted or 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:38.160 denied the elections in positions of power at the state 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.839 and federal level going into four. For Biden personally, though, 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.120 you know, he's going to be facing two more years 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:47.680 of at best gridlock and at worst, you know, constant 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:51.040 attacks likely from the House in terms of investigations into 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.440 his son, Hunter Biden, his handling of Afghanistan, the handling 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.840 of COVID, really anything that Republicans can use to keep 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.000 the focus on what has gone wrong with the administer 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:03.280 station leading up to four and trying to throw an 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.480 agenda setting in place. So it's going to be an 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:07.680 uphol battle for Biden, but one that I think they 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.560 have to have been expecting to some degree, and there 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:13.600 is so much to keep track of tonight. If you're 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:17.039 a political ju junkie, this is your night. But I'd 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:20.240 love to hear what race would you love to know 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:22.120 the outcome right now? If you could know the outcome 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:25.120 of any race at this moment, which would it be? 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:28.880 I would probably say Pennsylvania and the Senate race in 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:32.400 Pennsylvania especially, There's there's a lot of races to choose from, 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.680 as you alluded to, but this showed on between Federman 0:04:35.720 --> 0:04:38.279 in Oz it is neck and neck. It's in a 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.600 crucial swing state in one that I think is representative 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:45.600 of a lot of the American population in general. And 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.000 I think it's a test for Democrats to see, you 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:50.719 if they have a different kind of candidate, can that 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.360 work for him? Even if that candidate you lends towards 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.800 more progressive policy views that that maybe some in the 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.960 middle don't agree with. So I think that race especial 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:02.599 Lee is going to be very important for swinging the 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.240 Senate and it's very important for both parties to read 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.200 what does this mean for the kind of candidates we 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:12.240 put up in the future. Julie, You're in London University College, London, 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:14.200 what are the folks on the street that you talked to, 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:16.880 what do they think about our politics in this midterm 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:20.839 election and kind of where we're going. Yeah, someone said 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.680 to me today said, it's it's a bit farstical, isn't it? 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:26.160 Just you a bit of a circus and stuff? And 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.840 and again this is coming out of a rather rowdy 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:32.120 fall here in the UK. So I think there is 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:35.240 a lot of you know, there's a lot of I 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.800 think confusion, if you will, about the potential for Trump 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.280 to make this strong comeback and how he still has 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:43.960 that hold of a grip on the party. I think 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:47.200 there's some concern around Biden and what kind of leader 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:50.640 he can or will be in the future. And again, 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:52.279 you know, I think a lot of the world still 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:56.000 looks to the US as this uh new kind of model, 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:58.839 this pillar for democracy, and this kind of concern that 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.520 if that even wobbles a little bit or appears a 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.640 little bit shaky, what does that mean for everyone else? 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.800 A great stuff. Dr Julie A. Norman, co director of 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:08.760 the u c L Center on US Politics at the 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:16.920 University College of London, and a Duke Blue Devil Top seven. 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:22.440 Let's the United Nations Climate Change conference taking place in Egypt? 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:25.560 Is that right, Katie? Egypt. That's so we've got some 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:29.000 Bloomberg News Bloomberg Intelligence folks over. There's a lot going on. 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:31.920 I want to check in with Rob Barnett. He's a 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:38.320 senior analysts team lead for European Energy Research at Bloomberg Intelligence. Um. Rob, 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:41.080 thanks so much for joining us. You're based in London here. 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.480 What are you looking for? If anything out of COP 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.880 twenty seven or is this is gonna be a lot 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:51.159 of rhetoric coming out about climate change. I like the 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:54.600 way you described it, rhetoric. At the end of the day, 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:58.080 this kind of stuff maybe moves the needle, but what 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:02.160 I really look at is a bottom up build out 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:05.680 of policies that we're seeing. So in the US you've 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:09.360 got the Inflation Reduction Act, that's the real deal. That's 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:12.720 what matters. In Europe we've got the Repower you package. 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:16.800 These kinds of things matter. Whether we get some kind 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:23.680 of grand global Kumbaya kind of idea around reducing emissions 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:27.640 out in you know, that's great, but the real stuff 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.000 that matters is the near term policy push as opposed 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:36.280 to these very long term emissions goals. So Rob when 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:40.080 you think about the near term policy push, get specific. 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.640 Give us some names here among the clean energy names 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:48.000 that I know that you cover, which companies have the 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:51.680 most at stake here or the most to gain. Well, look, 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:56.560 I think the clean energy space doesn't need policy as 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:59.840 much as the policy makers think they do. The win 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:04.720 solar industry are generally growing very fast. If you look 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:10.200 at SunPower, which reported this morning sixty growth in the 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:15.040 top line in three Q solar edge just yesterday fifty 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:19.200 pcent growth in phase at the end of last month growth. 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:23.679 The solar industry is growing incredibly quickly. Now, the wind 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:27.240 industry a bit more tepid here in the near term, 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:30.120 but we think there's a lot of potential for a 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:34.240 company like vestas there, the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer, 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:36.880 to really pick up the pace and grow a lot 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:40.520 more quickly. In fact, we think consensus is way too 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.800 pessimistic about the growth opportunity that they have in front 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:47.360 of them. Alright, So, Rob, I know you're esconsed over 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:50.120 in London, but we do have some elections here today 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.400 in the United States. Does the what's the energy industry? 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:58.720 What are they hoping for here in this midterm election. Well, 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:04.840 I think we're seeing a real divergence in the US 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:10.280 in terms of the Republican and Democratic views on the 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:14.040 right way forward. But I would say that it's very 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:21.000 unlikely that I think the future Republican Congress would roll back, 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:26.120 say the Inflation Reduction Act. That that's there, those subsidies 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:29.079 are likely to stay in place. And you've got to 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.800 keep in mind some of the sunniest and windiest places 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:36.840 also happened to be Republican districts. So you know, I 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:40.840 think it's the same kind of thing. You know, theoretically, 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.240 do you do you need the policy to grow quickly? 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.360 Maybe you actually don't, but you're not gonna turn it down. 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:50.400 And in the places that have Republican lawmakers, they're certainly 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.760 gonna want to have those dollars flowing into these big 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:58.160 kind of solar and wind infrastructure projects. And Rob I'm 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:02.439 going through the headlines ACTA COP seven one from this morning, 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.960 Mark Arney sees a quote wall of opportunity UH in 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:09.560 renewable energy assets. Mark Arney, I mean, many might know 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.400 him as the former Bank of England governor, but he's 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:15.680 not also the vice chair at Brooklyn Brookfield Asset Management 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:19.120 He's also co chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:23.080 Net zero, so he's involved with the space. But the 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:27.240 idea of a wall of opportunity in clean energy, what 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:29.480 are the best parts of the wall. To get a 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:32.560 little more specific from that comment, is it wind? Is 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:36.160 it solar? Which looks better right now? Well, there's no 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:40.160 doubt that the near term fastest growing segment of the 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.640 energy space, no matter what way you cut it is 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:46.360 solar demand is just growing so quickly. There when has 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.720 a lot of potential. And you bring up Mark Arney. 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:52.640 You know the great thing about COP twenty seven and 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:56.800 everything that's being discussed, there's this idea about whether one 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:00.840 point five degrees is still possible, And I would say, 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:02.840 you know, maybe it is, maybe it isn't, and and 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.800 maybe the discussion is really around two degrees. But either way, 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.640 you're talking about billions now, excuse me, trillions of dollars 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:15.120 worth of investment that's gonna occur over the next few 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:19.680 decades in the energy space, and increasingly that allocation is 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:23.600 gonna go towards solar for sure, but also when, and 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.000 then I would also be looking at things like hydrogen. 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.720 We know that wind and solar are in admitting they're 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.400 not gonna be the only solution. There's gonna be other 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:34.920 stuff in play. So keep an eye on this space. 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:38.160 It's gonna grow so quickly, hey Robert. But you know, 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.320 in the near term here again, you're in London, so 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.480 you're you're closer to what's happening in terms of Russia 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:48.640 and Ukraine and many fallouts from that conflict, most not 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:52.559 or you know, notably the energy fallout and the disruption 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.160 and energy supply. You know, we're moving to a greener 0:11:56.280 --> 0:12:00.000 energy grid, but boy, you still need the fossil fuel stuff. 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:03.000 We're gonna need that for another couple of decades probably. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:04.480 How do you balance that? How are some of these 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:09.120 energy policy makers trying to balance that? It's a great point, 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:13.120 and I like to consider myself in the energy realist camp. 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.960 Just the fact that you need all of this um 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:21.280 new wind and solar does not preclude the fact that 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:26.480 today we are in very precarious supply demand balanced situation 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.000 for both oil and gas, and so we need more 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:35.640 new supply that's ideally in friendly countries. And so I 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.840 think you're right, and that might be a question for 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.640 the US Congress to ultimately consider right. I know the 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:48.439 Republicans have a very uh much more pro supply perspective 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.880 on on some of the fossil fuels, and some of 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.480 that could be really useful in the near term. We 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.960 used to talk about natural gas as a bridge fuel. 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.400 It's kind of the low carbon cousin of coal or oil, 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.520 and right now it's got a bad rap, particularly because 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:09.080 of the geopolitics around Russia and Ukraine. But the bottom 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.600 line is that in the near term we are going 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:15.080 to continue to use a tremendous amount of fossil fuels. 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.320 And uh, you know, even if peak demand for those 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:22.559 fuels is on the horizon, Uh, the decline rates aren't 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:24.839 gonna sorry, excuse me, the demand is it going to 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:28.600 roll off so fast that it will exceed the natural 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:31.800 decline rates. So you've got to invest in the space 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:37.280 even if demand is going down. All right, Rob, good stuff, 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:40.040 as always Rob Barnett. He's a senior analyst, is a 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:43.280 team lead for our European energy business over there a 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:46.480 Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, he's been covered into the energy business 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:47.840 for a long time. It's got a great sense of 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.600 the business, the economics of the energy business, as well 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.600 as the policy and he has a haircut that I 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.440 do not approve of. Katie. I mean, ever since I've 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.400 known guys, you gotta get it cut. You know, you're 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.079 pretty clean cut. I'm pretty clear cut. His is out there, folks, 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.240 so um, but he knows what he's talking about when 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.360 it comes to energy. So that's how we like chatting 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:11.800 with him. Mandyep Seeing technology analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. And 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.920 Dan I've senior equity analyst with Wedbush Securities. Thanks gents 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.080 for joining us here a little technology round table here. Hey, 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:22.520 Dan'll start with you here. Um, Twitter, I mean, I'm sorry, 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:26.840 lift uh, Uber, I don't know, how do you think 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.920 about this business model in a in a time where 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.520 we've got inflation all over the place? How do you 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:37.080 think about those users? Those stories? Yeah? I mean, but 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.000 I think Uber they're navigating well. I mean I think 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.360 you saw that with earnings and this actually business model 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:49.960 is starting to play out positively, improfitable with they're essentially 0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.000 the little brother Uber, and I think over their skis 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:56.800 it was a disappointing quarter and there's some potential return around, 0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.520 but I think there's a queer deination now between the 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:03.800 business models. Then you will burn with, But Dan, what's 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:05.880 interesting to me if I look at the stocks that 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.120 you cover, I see a by rating on Lift, I 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.160 see a by rating on Uber, And I'm hoping you 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.520 can square that circle for me because it seems like 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:18.000 a pretty zero sum game from my seat. If you're 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.080 bullish on one, maybe your barish on the other. But 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.800 is that to binary? Yeah, Look, I think it's a 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.600 little g binary because our view is to play ride 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.320 sharing overall domestic and globally. They are the clearly the 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:34.360 two best ways to play it. I think with I 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.800 do think this is a bit of an overreaction terms 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:40.040 of what we're seeing in the stock, but ultimately Uber 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:43.520 is our best way to play the ride sharing globally, 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.720 and I think it also on food delivery, and it's 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:50.200 profitable and I don't necessarily viewed as a zero some game, 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.640 but no doubt, I mean with this is a pivotal 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.840 few quarters ahead for them, and I think last night 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.560 was clearly a bit put in the penalty about Yeah, 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.000 a man deep, you know, one of the key pillars 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.440 to the economic model for you know a lot of 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:09.360 these gig companies, most notably these ride sharing companies, is 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.880 the classification of their drivers. Are they independent contractors or 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:17.400 are they employees? Where are we as an industry there 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:22.080 in that regards? Well, right now, you know, both Uber 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:25.360 and Lift are treating their drivers as independent employees and 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.080 they are paying them out a good take gread you know, 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:32.160 you get and they get paident of the bookings that 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:35.600 they these companies are generating from a ride. But look 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.360 even then, you know, when you look at the cost 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:42.120 structure of these companies, whether it's Lift or Uber, is 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.240 much bigger, so they can spread it out. But in 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.240 the case of Lift, you know, the fact that g 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:50.680 n A intensity is still it makes you wonder, you know, 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.400 why are there so many costs? And they talk about 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.800 layoffs and you know, off setting it to generate. It's 0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:01.440 just a deepit dub positive um. But clearly there is 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:04.919 something fundamentally wrong in the business model. It's because of 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.239 the high variable cost. Maybe they are learing in a 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.280 lot of drivers subsidies to boot supply on the platform. 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.400 That's what it felt like last night that even though 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.120 pricing was a tail, when they're able to raise prices, 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:20.440 but then their gross margin is getting compressed and they 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:23.000 have to lear and drivers subsidies to boot supply. So 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:27.080 clearly variable costs continue to pressure their margins, and I 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:29.399 don't know if they can get to the billion dollar 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.040 and adjust a deepit da that they have laid out 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.160 for well man deep. That's what I was going to ask, 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.480 is what can Lift do? I'm looking through you know, 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.879 the Bloomberg news right up of last night's earnings or 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:44.720 this morning. It's been a long day already, but cutting 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.640 of staff for example, Uh, is that the right sort 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:51.719 of direction to go in or what would you suggest 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:55.000 Lift do? At this point? Well, so this, uh, I 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:58.399 guess the run way for Lift is not very clear. 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.800 There seems to be a writer sat to Asian. They 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.040 missed on their writer metric, which is a key metric, 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.760 And at this point of time you have to ask yourselves, 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.359 can they partner with somebody on the autonomous side that 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:14.640 could really kind of generate this top line runway which 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:18.160 everyone is looking for. But beyond that, you know, they 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:21.159 had the best set up in terms of reopenings, you know, 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:25.720 everybody traveling, and still they talked about top line decelebrating 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:30.320 to almost whereas Uber, which is three times bigger, is 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:34.560 talking about you know, growth. So they're clearly losing market 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:38.119 share in the US, but I think any partnership on 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:42.199 the autonomous side could be something that investors Matya, Kay, 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.280 did you know that Dana Ives is a proud graduate 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.560 of the Penn State University. I feel like I actually 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.080 did know that from filling in on this show. They 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.719 had a good win at Indiana last week, and now 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:53.640 we hosted Maryland this weekend. Dan, how do you feel 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.800 about it? I would I think I think we got three, 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.800 you know, and then ultimately New Year six in terms 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.199 of there, so I can you you lost to Michigan 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:06.360 Ohio State, obviously to the best in the country, Dan, Tesla, 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.359 I mean, if I'm a Tesla shareholders, I love the car, 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:12.640 I love the story, But I got a CEO who 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:14.720 just bangs me over the head every day, it seems like. 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:16.679 And now he goes out and spends four billion dollars 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.560 on Twitter. What are you telling your clients? You've been 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:22.840 a strong, longtime supporter of the stock here, what are 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.600 you telling your clients these days? Look, it's this Twitter 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.399 circus show continues to be in albatross on Tesla stock, 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.240 and I mean, obviously it's test of being down since 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.080 the Twitter deal. Look, I think there's two things. I 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:40.199 think one, there's worries that the brand of Musk is deteriorating, 0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:43.760 and we're seeing a globally not just what's happened on Twitter, 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.200 but how that could impact Testsa in just a view 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.960 in his arms race. And and the second thing is 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:53.280 just the tension. You know, he's focused on the factory 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.399 for he's not focused on Testa in terms of as 0:19:56.440 --> 0:19:59.800 a perception. Instead, it's more on Twitter and that's sort 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:03.960 of celebrity billionaire and and it's not resonating well in 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:08.680 a white narcle market. All right, Dan, good stuff, appreciate it. Um. 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:12.800 Dan's got an over our perform rating on the stock, 0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:15.119 has been a strong supporter. He's been right. Uh. He's 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:18.640 got some headwinds though for Tesla this year. Dan ives 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:21.240 managing director, Senior equity analyst for what Bush Securities and 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:24.080 man Deep singh Uh. He is our tech analyst at 0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:27.280 Bloomberg Intelligence, covers all things on the tech space along 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:29.840 with h on a rock run and and their team 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:32.200 there at Bloomberg Intelligence, we get y'all covered from a 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:42.480 bi perspective. It is election day, uh in America. Policymakers 0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:45.400 obviously paying close attention to what happens here in these 0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:47.800 mid terms and what will mean for policy over the 0:20:47.800 --> 0:20:50.200 next couple of years heading into the presidential election. We 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:52.640 check out with Nathan Dean. He's a senior policy analyst 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.920 covering in the United States and Latin America for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:58.840 He's based for Better or Worse in Washington, d C. 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.640 So he's close to all the stuff. Nathan, you talked 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:05.960 to all these Beltway types. What's the thinking today and 0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:10.080 what's the thinking tomorrow. So the thinking today is is 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.439 that the House is most likely going to go to 0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:15.679 the Republicans. Um on the Senate, you know, generally the 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:17.760 feeling in the last week is that the GOP has 0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:20.560 done some in roads there. But I would just definitely 0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:23.520 say that today's not election day, it's election week. What mean. 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:25.800 What I mean by that is, uh, we may know 0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.720 who's gonna have the House of Representatives by tonight, but 0:21:29.320 --> 0:21:31.919 I'd be really shocked if we wake up tomorrow morning 0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:34.399 and we know who's in control of the Senate. It 0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:36.040 could go to the end of this week, or in 0:21:36.080 --> 0:21:38.720 Georgia's case, it could go all the way to January. 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:42.000 All the way to January. I mean how likely is that? 0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:44.280 What's your base case on what the timeline is here? 0:21:44.760 --> 0:21:47.560 So you know, I think we're you know, with the House, 0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:50.120 I think we'll know tonight. I think that the Republicans 0:21:50.119 --> 0:21:52.479 will get enough that will know tonight. For the Senate, 0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:54.920 you know, we'll have a good indication of where things 0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:58.320 are going. I mean, usually the House trends will incorporate 0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.399 into the Senate trends, and so I think you'll have 0:22:00.480 --> 0:22:03.280 like a general feeling this week of what likely is 0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:05.760 going to be the case scenario. And you know, I 0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:08.560 think if if most people were to be given truth 0:22:08.560 --> 0:22:10.480 cerm at the moment, they would say that they think 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:12.560