1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Election Day. Here, folks 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: around the world are paying attention to this midterm elections. 8 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: Uh here in the United States, We're gonna check in 9 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: with one of those, Dr Julie Norman, co director of 10 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: the u c L Center on US Politics at University 11 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: College London. She's got a PhD from American University. That's 12 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 1: kind of good, but the real claim to fame from 13 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: my perspective is she is a graduate of Duke and 14 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: we are one of our Katie. Yes, we won last 15 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: night's for one Another. So here comes Duke and here 16 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: comes Dr Julie Norman. Julie, So from your side of 17 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: the pond, you guys have had a lot of going 18 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: on political wise in the UK, but I'd love to 19 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: get your sense of just kind of what are really 20 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: focusing on here in these midterm elections. Well, yeah, I 21 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 1: mean it's it's hard to have a distraction for US politics. 22 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: But at UK, the UK politics did did take our 23 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 1: attention for a while, That's all I must say. But 24 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: but I mean we we really are focused on the 25 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: U s. Of course this week everyone over here is 26 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: watching the elections very closely as well. Um, you like 27 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: everyone expecting Republicans to take back control but at least 28 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: part of Congress, you know, if not all of it. 29 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: And you a lot of people in Europe and Allies 30 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: especially wondering what this means for US foreign policy and 31 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,839 Speaker 1: also just for democracy in America more broadly and by association, 32 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: democracy for the whole world. So I think a lot 33 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: of things are at at play here. I think most 34 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: voters are, of course, focusing more on inflation, economy, the 35 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: more day to day issues, but the world watching this 36 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: election is seeing some of these, uh, these bigger issues 37 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: play out as well. And I mean, if you had 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: to rank them, you just ran through some of them. 39 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: Obviously from the perspective of a markets journalist, inflation is 40 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: a pretty big deal from my perspective. But what's on 41 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: the ballot here? What is the most pressing issue from 42 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: the perspective of the average American voter right now. Well, 43 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: I think obviously disinflation and this rising cost of living. 44 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: I mean, that's something that no one can escape, and 45 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: people are just feeling at this day to day level. 46 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 1: You know, Democrats have obviously tried to push the democracy message. 47 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: I think abortion gave them a big bump in the summer. 48 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: But in terms of what is actually going to get 49 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: voters out to the polls and actually convince those swing voters, 50 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: those who don't already know how they're voting, is going 51 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 1: to be the economy and how people are feeling this 52 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: on a day to day basis. So, Julie, you know, 53 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: I guess we're gonna wake up tomorrow we'll know some stuff, 54 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: but we've been told by a lot of folks that 55 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: follow the stuff that we're not gonna know for several 56 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: days on some of these races, but presumably a lot 57 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: of the focus will switch tomorrow to election. How do 58 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: you think, you know, what are something that takeaways from 59 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: maybe what might be a Republican sweep here? Uh today? 60 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: What does that mean for the Biden administration? Yeah, so 61 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: I do think you know, this is obviously what happens 62 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: today will lay the groundwork for four. Um. I think 63 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: it will really be sort of a rough rundom on Biden, 64 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: of course, and really start serious conversations about if he 65 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: will run in twenty four and what that means for him, 66 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 1: as we've heard today a likely announcement sooner rather than 67 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 1: later from Trump, and what that with these midterms will 68 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: mean for for his momentum perhaps going forward with the candidacy, 69 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: and of course just the reality that there will be 70 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of individuals who doubted or 71 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: denied the elections in positions of power at the state 72 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,839 Speaker 1: and federal level going into four. For Biden personally, though, 73 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: you know, he's going to be facing two more years 74 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: of at best gridlock and at worst, you know, constant 75 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: attacks likely from the House in terms of investigations into 76 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: his son, Hunter Biden, his handling of Afghanistan, the handling 77 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: of COVID, really anything that Republicans can use to keep 78 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: the focus on what has gone wrong with the administer 79 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: station leading up to four and trying to throw an 80 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: agenda setting in place. So it's going to be an 81 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: uphol battle for Biden, but one that I think they 82 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: have to have been expecting to some degree, and there 83 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: is so much to keep track of tonight. If you're 84 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 1: a political ju junkie, this is your night. But I'd 85 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: love to hear what race would you love to know 86 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: the outcome right now? If you could know the outcome 87 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: of any race at this moment, which would it be? 88 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: I would probably say Pennsylvania and the Senate race in 89 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania especially, There's there's a lot of races to choose from, 90 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: as you alluded to, but this showed on between Federman 91 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: in Oz it is neck and neck. It's in a 92 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 1: crucial swing state in one that I think is representative 93 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: of a lot of the American population in general. And 94 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: I think it's a test for Democrats to see, you 95 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: if they have a different kind of candidate, can that 96 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: work for him? Even if that candidate you lends towards 97 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: more progressive policy views that that maybe some in the 98 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: middle don't agree with. So I think that race especial 99 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: Lee is going to be very important for swinging the 100 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: Senate and it's very important for both parties to read 101 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: what does this mean for the kind of candidates we 102 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: put up in the future. Julie, You're in London University College, London, 103 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: what are the folks on the street that you talked to, 104 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: what do they think about our politics in this midterm 105 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: election and kind of where we're going. Yeah, someone said 106 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: to me today said, it's it's a bit farstical, isn't it? 107 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: Just you a bit of a circus and stuff? And 108 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 1: and again this is coming out of a rather rowdy 109 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: fall here in the UK. So I think there is 110 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: a lot of you know, there's a lot of I 111 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: think confusion, if you will, about the potential for Trump 112 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: to make this strong comeback and how he still has 113 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: that hold of a grip on the party. I think 114 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: there's some concern around Biden and what kind of leader 115 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: he can or will be in the future. And again, 116 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: you know, I think a lot of the world still 117 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: looks to the US as this uh new kind of model, 118 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: this pillar for democracy, and this kind of concern that 119 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: if that even wobbles a little bit or appears a 120 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: little bit shaky, what does that mean for everyone else? 121 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: A great stuff. Dr Julie A. Norman, co director of 122 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: the u c L Center on US Politics at the 123 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: University College of London, and a Duke Blue Devil Top seven. 124 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: Let's the United Nations Climate Change conference taking place in Egypt? 125 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: Is that right, Katie? Egypt. That's so we've got some 126 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Bloomberg Intelligence folks over. There's a lot going on. 127 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: I want to check in with Rob Barnett. He's a 128 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: senior analysts team lead for European Energy Research at Bloomberg Intelligence. Um. Rob, 129 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. You're based in London here. 130 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: What are you looking for? If anything out of COP 131 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: twenty seven or is this is gonna be a lot 132 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 1: of rhetoric coming out about climate change. I like the 133 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 1: way you described it, rhetoric. At the end of the day, 134 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: this kind of stuff maybe moves the needle, but what 135 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:02,160 Speaker 1: I really look at is a bottom up build out 136 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: of policies that we're seeing. So in the US you've 137 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: got the Inflation Reduction Act, that's the real deal. That's 138 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: what matters. In Europe we've got the Repower you package. 139 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: These kinds of things matter. Whether we get some kind 140 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: of grand global Kumbaya kind of idea around reducing emissions 141 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: out in you know, that's great, but the real stuff 142 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: that matters is the near term policy push as opposed 143 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: to these very long term emissions goals. So Rob when 144 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: you think about the near term policy push, get specific. 145 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: Give us some names here among the clean energy names 146 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: that I know that you cover, which companies have the 147 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: most at stake here or the most to gain. Well, look, 148 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: I think the clean energy space doesn't need policy as 149 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: much as the policy makers think they do. The win 150 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: solar industry are generally growing very fast. If you look 151 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: at SunPower, which reported this morning sixty growth in the 152 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: top line in three Q solar edge just yesterday fifty 153 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: pcent growth in phase at the end of last month growth. 154 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:23,679 Speaker 1: The solar industry is growing incredibly quickly. Now, the wind 155 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: industry a bit more tepid here in the near term, 156 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: but we think there's a lot of potential for a 157 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: company like vestas there, the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer, 158 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: to really pick up the pace and grow a lot 159 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: more quickly. In fact, we think consensus is way too 160 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: pessimistic about the growth opportunity that they have in front 161 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: of them. Alright, So, Rob, I know you're esconsed over 162 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: in London, but we do have some elections here today 163 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: in the United States. Does the what's the energy industry? 164 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: What are they hoping for here in this midterm election. Well, 165 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: I think we're seeing a real divergence in the US 166 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: in terms of the Republican and Democratic views on the 167 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: right way forward. But I would say that it's very 168 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: unlikely that I think the future Republican Congress would roll back, 169 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: say the Inflation Reduction Act. That that's there, those subsidies 170 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 1: are likely to stay in place. And you've got to 171 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: keep in mind some of the sunniest and windiest places 172 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: also happened to be Republican districts. So you know, I 173 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: think it's the same kind of thing. You know, theoretically, 174 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: do you do you need the policy to grow quickly? 175 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: Maybe you actually don't, but you're not gonna turn it down. 176 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: And in the places that have Republican lawmakers, they're certainly 177 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: gonna want to have those dollars flowing into these big 178 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: kind of solar and wind infrastructure projects. And Rob I'm 179 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 1: going through the headlines ACTA COP seven one from this morning, 180 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: Mark Arney sees a quote wall of opportunity UH in 181 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: renewable energy assets. Mark Arney, I mean, many might know 182 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: him as the former Bank of England governor, but he's 183 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: not also the vice chair at Brooklyn Brookfield Asset Management 184 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: He's also co chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for 185 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: Net zero, so he's involved with the space. But the 186 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: idea of a wall of opportunity in clean energy, what 187 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: are the best parts of the wall. To get a 188 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: little more specific from that comment, is it wind? Is 189 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: it solar? Which looks better right now? Well, there's no 190 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: doubt that the near term fastest growing segment of the 191 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: energy space, no matter what way you cut it is 192 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: solar demand is just growing so quickly. There when has 193 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: a lot of potential. And you bring up Mark Arney. 194 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: You know the great thing about COP twenty seven and 195 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: everything that's being discussed, there's this idea about whether one 196 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: point five degrees is still possible, And I would say, 197 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: you know, maybe it is, maybe it isn't, and and 198 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: maybe the discussion is really around two degrees. But either way, 199 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: you're talking about billions now, excuse me, trillions of dollars 200 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: worth of investment that's gonna occur over the next few 201 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 1: decades in the energy space, and increasingly that allocation is 202 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 1: gonna go towards solar for sure, but also when, and 203 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: then I would also be looking at things like hydrogen. 204 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: We know that wind and solar are in admitting they're 205 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: not gonna be the only solution. There's gonna be other 206 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: stuff in play. So keep an eye on this space. 207 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: It's gonna grow so quickly, hey Robert. But you know, 208 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: in the near term here again, you're in London, so 209 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: you're you're closer to what's happening in terms of Russia 210 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: and Ukraine and many fallouts from that conflict, most not 211 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,559 Speaker 1: or you know, notably the energy fallout and the disruption 212 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: and energy supply. You know, we're moving to a greener 213 00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: energy grid, but boy, you still need the fossil fuel stuff. 214 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: We're gonna need that for another couple of decades probably. 215 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: How do you balance that? How are some of these 216 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: energy policy makers trying to balance that? It's a great point, 217 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: and I like to consider myself in the energy realist camp. 218 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: Just the fact that you need all of this um 219 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: new wind and solar does not preclude the fact that 220 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: today we are in very precarious supply demand balanced situation 221 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: for both oil and gas, and so we need more 222 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: new supply that's ideally in friendly countries. And so I 223 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: think you're right, and that might be a question for 224 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 1: the US Congress to ultimately consider right. I know the 225 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 1: Republicans have a very uh much more pro supply perspective 226 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: on on some of the fossil fuels, and some of 227 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: that could be really useful in the near term. We 228 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: used to talk about natural gas as a bridge fuel. 229 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: It's kind of the low carbon cousin of coal or oil, 230 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: and right now it's got a bad rap, particularly because 231 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: of the geopolitics around Russia and Ukraine. But the bottom 232 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: line is that in the near term we are going 233 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 1: to continue to use a tremendous amount of fossil fuels. 234 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: And uh, you know, even if peak demand for those 235 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 1: fuels is on the horizon, Uh, the decline rates aren't 236 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 1: gonna sorry, excuse me, the demand is it going to 237 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: roll off so fast that it will exceed the natural 238 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: decline rates. So you've got to invest in the space 239 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: even if demand is going down. All right, Rob, good stuff, 240 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: as always Rob Barnett. He's a senior analyst, is a 241 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: team lead for our European energy business over there a 242 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, he's been covered into the energy business 243 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: for a long time. It's got a great sense of 244 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: the business, the economics of the energy business, as well 245 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: as the policy and he has a haircut that I 246 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: do not approve of. Katie. I mean, ever since I've 247 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: known guys, you gotta get it cut. You know, you're 248 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 1: pretty clean cut. I'm pretty clear cut. His is out there, folks, 249 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: so um, but he knows what he's talking about when 250 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: it comes to energy. So that's how we like chatting 251 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: with him. Mandyep Seeing technology analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. And 252 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: Dan I've senior equity analyst with Wedbush Securities. Thanks gents 253 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: for joining us here a little technology round table here. Hey, 254 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: Dan'll start with you here. Um, Twitter, I mean, I'm sorry, 255 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: lift uh, Uber, I don't know, how do you think 256 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: about this business model in a in a time where 257 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: we've got inflation all over the place? How do you 258 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: think about those users? Those stories? Yeah? I mean, but 259 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: I think Uber they're navigating well. I mean I think 260 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: you saw that with earnings and this actually business model 261 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: is starting to play out positively, improfitable with they're essentially 262 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 1: the little brother Uber, and I think over their skis 263 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: it was a disappointing quarter and there's some potential return around, 264 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 1: but I think there's a queer deination now between the 265 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: business models. Then you will burn with, But Dan, what's 266 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: interesting to me if I look at the stocks that 267 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: you cover, I see a by rating on Lift, I 268 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: see a by rating on Uber, And I'm hoping you 269 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: can square that circle for me because it seems like 270 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: a pretty zero sum game from my seat. If you're 271 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: bullish on one, maybe your barish on the other. But 272 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: is that to binary? Yeah, Look, I think it's a 273 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: little g binary because our view is to play ride 274 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: sharing overall domestic and globally. They are the clearly the 275 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: two best ways to play it. I think with I 276 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 1: do think this is a bit of an overreaction terms 277 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: of what we're seeing in the stock, but ultimately Uber 278 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: is our best way to play the ride sharing globally, 279 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: and I think it also on food delivery, and it's 280 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 1: profitable and I don't necessarily viewed as a zero some game, 281 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: but no doubt, I mean with this is a pivotal 282 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: few quarters ahead for them, and I think last night 283 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: was clearly a bit put in the penalty about Yeah, 284 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: a man deep, you know, one of the key pillars 285 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: to the economic model for you know a lot of 286 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: these gig companies, most notably these ride sharing companies, is 287 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: the classification of their drivers. Are they independent contractors or 288 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: are they employees? Where are we as an industry there 289 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: in that regards? Well, right now, you know, both Uber 290 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: and Lift are treating their drivers as independent employees and 291 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: they are paying them out a good take gread you know, 292 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: you get and they get paident of the bookings that 293 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: they these companies are generating from a ride. But look 294 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: even then, you know, when you look at the cost 295 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: structure of these companies, whether it's Lift or Uber, is 296 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: much bigger, so they can spread it out. But in 297 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: the case of Lift, you know, the fact that g 298 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: n A intensity is still it makes you wonder, you know, 299 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: why are there so many costs? And they talk about 300 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: layoffs and you know, off setting it to generate. It's 301 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: just a deepit dub positive um. But clearly there is 302 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: something fundamentally wrong in the business model. It's because of 303 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,239 Speaker 1: the high variable cost. Maybe they are learing in a 304 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: lot of drivers subsidies to boot supply on the platform. 305 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,400 Speaker 1: That's what it felt like last night that even though 306 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,120 Speaker 1: pricing was a tail, when they're able to raise prices, 307 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 1: but then their gross margin is getting compressed and they 308 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: have to lear and drivers subsidies to boot supply. So 309 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: clearly variable costs continue to pressure their margins, and I 310 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: don't know if they can get to the billion dollar 311 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: and adjust a deepit da that they have laid out 312 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 1: for well man deep. That's what I was going to ask, 313 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: is what can Lift do? I'm looking through you know, 314 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg news right up of last night's earnings or 315 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: this morning. It's been a long day already, but cutting 316 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: of staff for example, Uh, is that the right sort 317 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 1: of direction to go in or what would you suggest 318 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: Lift do? At this point? Well, so this, uh, I 319 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 1: guess the run way for Lift is not very clear. 320 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: There seems to be a writer sat to Asian. They 321 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: missed on their writer metric, which is a key metric, 322 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: And at this point of time you have to ask yourselves, 323 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: can they partner with somebody on the autonomous side that 324 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 1: could really kind of generate this top line runway which 325 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 1: everyone is looking for. But beyond that, you know, they 326 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 1: had the best set up in terms of reopenings, you know, 327 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 1: everybody traveling, and still they talked about top line decelebrating 328 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: to almost whereas Uber, which is three times bigger, is 329 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: talking about you know, growth. So they're clearly losing market 330 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 1: share in the US, but I think any partnership on 331 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 1: the autonomous side could be something that investors Matya, Kay, 332 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: did you know that Dana Ives is a proud graduate 333 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: of the Penn State University. I feel like I actually 334 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: did know that from filling in on this show. They 335 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,719 Speaker 1: had a good win at Indiana last week, and now 336 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: we hosted Maryland this weekend. Dan, how do you feel 337 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: about it? I would I think I think we got three, 338 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: you know, and then ultimately New Year six in terms 339 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: of there, so I can you you lost to Michigan 340 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 1: Ohio State, obviously to the best in the country, Dan, Tesla, 341 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: I mean, if I'm a Tesla shareholders, I love the car, 342 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 1: I love the story, But I got a CEO who 343 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: just bangs me over the head every day, it seems like. 344 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 1: And now he goes out and spends four billion dollars 345 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 1: on Twitter. What are you telling your clients? You've been 346 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: a strong, longtime supporter of the stock here, what are 347 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: you telling your clients these days? Look, it's this Twitter 348 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: circus show continues to be in albatross on Tesla stock, 349 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: and I mean, obviously it's test of being down since 350 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 1: the Twitter deal. Look, I think there's two things. I 351 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,199 Speaker 1: think one, there's worries that the brand of Musk is deteriorating, 352 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: and we're seeing a globally not just what's happened on Twitter, 353 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 1: but how that could impact Testsa in just a view 354 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: in his arms race. And and the second thing is 355 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: just the tension. You know, he's focused on the factory 356 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: for he's not focused on Testa in terms of as 357 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: a perception. Instead, it's more on Twitter and that's sort 358 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: of celebrity billionaire and and it's not resonating well in 359 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 1: a white narcle market. All right, Dan, good stuff, appreciate it. Um. 360 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: Dan's got an over our perform rating on the stock, 361 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: has been a strong supporter. He's been right. Uh. He's 362 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 1: got some headwinds though for Tesla this year. Dan ives 363 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: managing director, Senior equity analyst for what Bush Securities and 364 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: man Deep singh Uh. He is our tech analyst at 365 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence, covers all things on the tech space along 366 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: with h on a rock run and and their team 367 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: there at Bloomberg Intelligence, we get y'all covered from a 368 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: bi perspective. It is election day, uh in America. Policymakers 369 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: obviously paying close attention to what happens here in these 370 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: mid terms and what will mean for policy over the 371 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 1: next couple of years heading into the presidential election. We 372 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 1: check out with Nathan Dean. He's a senior policy analyst 373 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 1: covering in the United States and Latin America for Bloomberg Intelligence. 374 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: He's based for Better or Worse in Washington, d C. 375 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 1: So he's close to all the stuff. Nathan, you talked 376 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 1: to all these Beltway types. What's the thinking today and 377 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 1: what's the thinking tomorrow. So the thinking today is is 378 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 1: that the House is most likely going to go to 379 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,679 Speaker 1: the Republicans. Um on the Senate, you know, generally the 380 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: feeling in the last week is that the GOP has 381 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: done some in roads there. But I would just definitely 382 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: say that today's not election day, it's election week. What mean. 383 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: What I mean by that is, uh, we may know 384 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: who's gonna have the House of Representatives by tonight, but 385 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,919 Speaker 1: I'd be really shocked if we wake up tomorrow morning 386 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 1: and we know who's in control of the Senate. It 387 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: could go to the end of this week, or in 388 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: Georgia's case, it could go all the way to January. 389 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: All the way to January. I mean how likely is that? 390 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: What's your base case on what the timeline is here? 391 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: So you know, I think we're you know, with the House, 392 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: I think we'll know tonight. I think that the Republicans 393 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,479 Speaker 1: will get enough that will know tonight. For the Senate, 394 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,920 Speaker 1: you know, we'll have a good indication of where things 395 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: are going. I mean, usually the House trends will incorporate 396 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 1: into the Senate trends, and so I think you'll have 397 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: like a general feeling this week of what likely is 398 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: going to be the case scenario. And you know, I 399 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: think if if most people were to be given truth 400 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: cerm at the moment, they would say that they think 401 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: that the Republicans are going to take the Senate. But 402 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 1: what you know, these races are going to be extremely tight, 403 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of mail in ballots that have 404 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: to be counted, and in some of these states they 405 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: can't start counting until after the polls closed, so it 406 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: may take a couple of days for U states like 407 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,679 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania to catch up and finally give us an idea. 408 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: But you know, you definitely see the Republicans. I think 409 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: the general consensus is around seats UH in control. All right, 410 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: If that's the case, Uh, Nathan, what's again, what are 411 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: the policy types down on Washington? What are they thinking 412 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,680 Speaker 1: can get done? Should get done? Needs to get done 413 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: from a legislation of policy perspective over the next couple 414 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,959 Speaker 1: of years. If that's a fact the makeup, So you're 415 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 1: gonna see increased good luck. But you know, increased good 416 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: luck it's been around since two thousand and ten. You know, 417 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: you think about the Tea Party and Nancy Pelosi coming 418 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 1: in under the Trump administration. What changes is you no 419 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: longer have these economic broad fiscally stimulus bills, you never 420 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: you no longer have reconciliation types. But what happens is 421 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 1: is that the legislation that gets debated gets pushed down 422 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: to more sector levels least think marijuana's box or cryptocurrency, etcetera. 423 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: And then what happens is it gets bunched up into 424 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: these government resolutions. So every three to six months, the 425 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: government faces a deadline and there's this huge debate and 426 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: so forth like that. But I would say that the 427 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: most important things that we are telling clients right now 428 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: is to watch this dead ceiling fight. It's going to 429 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 1: come likely in September or the third quarter of next year, 430 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: you know the incoming or soon to be incoming. If 431 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 1: you think the Republicans are gonna win Speaker the House, 432 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 1: most likely will be Kevin McCarthy. He's already said that 433 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 1: he wants to use this as leverage. Certainly a lot 434 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 1: of political brickmanship. We've been here before, but both the 435 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 1: fixed income and the equity side could be exposed. Nathan, 436 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 1: I'm so grateful to have you on for so many reasons. 437 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 1: One of them, though, is because I know that you 438 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,919 Speaker 1: can speak intelligently about the cryptocurrency verse. And we have 439 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 1: some huge breaking news. Crypto exchanged Binance, that is the 440 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 1: world leader. It's going to buy rival f t X 441 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: dot Com. That is according to a tweet from f 442 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 1: t X CEO Sam Bankman Free. They said that he 443 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: said that the two exchanges reached an agreement on a 444 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:22,400 Speaker 1: strategic transition transaction with finance. Terms are undisclosed. I can 445 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: hear just thousands of Bloomberg's reporters trying to find out 446 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: what those terms are. But if I look at spfs tweet, 447 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 1: as he's known, he says, this of course is pending. 448 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 1: Do diligence, and Nathan, let me know if this is 449 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: too far outside of your realm. But what does due 450 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 1: diligence even look like here? You know that one is 451 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: you know, these are two privately held companies, both not 452 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 1: you know, you know, Bahamas and Asia based and so 453 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: forth like that. So the due diligence, I don't think 454 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: it is anything that you know, we are going to 455 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 1: know right now. I mean, the Bloomberg reporters, as you speak, 456 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: are going to go out there. What I can say though, 457 00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: is that this is a game changer when it comes 458 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,919 Speaker 1: to policy efforts in Washington because f t X, and 459 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 1: specifically Sam Bankman Free was a big proponent of coming 460 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 1: here to lobby. And so if you're looking at the 461 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: stable coin bill that's over at the House Financial Services 462 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: or the Digital Commodity Consumer Protection Act which is at 463 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: the Senate ad Committee, we anticipate both of those bills 464 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 1: coming back next year. The main question for us on 465 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: the policy side is is ft X or binance or 466 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: is somebody else going to take up the mantle? Are 467 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: they going to be able to continue to push policymakers 468 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,159 Speaker 1: to do this, And so it will be really interesting 469 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: to see what happens in the first quarter of next 470 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 1: year here in Washington. Because f t X was such 471 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 1: a big proponent of that bill. Do you think this 472 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: puts more fire under Washington? I mean, the debate in 473 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: the crypto market has been who actually oversees the crypto 474 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 1: market in the U S. You just have a bunch 475 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: of letters from the SEC to the CFTC, maybe Congress, 476 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 1: no one really knows. Now you have this huge behemoth, 477 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 1: like you said, one based in the Bahamas, one Asia 478 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: based coming together creating this monster. I mean, do you 479 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: think that this puts another fire under US policymakers to 480 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,719 Speaker 1: figure out who actually oversees this and can we get 481 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 1: some legislation here? So I'm not sure if it puts 482 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: new fire under policymakers, but it's certainly brings additional focus 483 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 1: to it um because like you said, I look, I 484 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: don't think cryptocurrency is going away. And if you look 485 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: at the bills, the stable Coin Bill that hasn't been 486 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: released but is under discussion over the House Financial Services 487 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 1: Committee and the Senate agg bill, they do things like, 488 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,679 Speaker 1: you know, affirm bitcoin as a commodity, affirm etherorium as 489 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: a commodity, give platforms like coin based or now bananced 490 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: ft X the way to register with the SEC or 491 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: the c FTC. None of this is really controversial from 492 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: a bipartisan perspective. So as long as the crypto industry 493 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: continues to push for this regulatory framework, I still remain 494 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: confident that these bills can get done. The one thing, though, 495 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 1: and when this comes back to the election, is that 496 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: if the Republicans take the Senate, I think those bills 497 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: speed up in terms of timing because as somebody like 498 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: schre Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, wouldn't 499 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: be able to oppose it. All right, great stuff as 500 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: always Nathan Dean, he's got that Washington DC policy stuff 501 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 1: just nailed down. He's the senior policy analst for Bloomberg Intelligence. 502 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 1: He is based in Washington. Election day, Uh, Katie, you 503 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: know we learned a long time ago. It's the economy stupid. 504 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 1: That's kind of the thing. And I've heard that as well. Um. 505 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 1: Not a political junkie, but I have heard that. And 506 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: if you look at President Biden's scorecard, it's probably better 507 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 1: than most people would give it credit for. But you 508 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: really need to look at the numbers. And we have 509 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 1: somebody who does like to look at numbers. That's Matt Winkler. 510 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 1: He's the founder of Bloomberg News. He joined us here 511 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: on a Bloomberg Interactive broker studio. He's got a column 512 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 1: out today saying the Biden economy is second only to 513 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,080 Speaker 1: one at the mid terms. So Matt talked to us 514 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: about the Biden economy, how does it stack up? So 515 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,879 Speaker 1: thank you great to be with you. Uh, you know, 516 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 1: we are Bloomberg and so uh, we are always looking 517 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: at the data. And so given that, as you said, 518 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,639 Speaker 1: the election is if you like, a referendum the mid 519 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: term on the economy, my colleague should pay. And I 520 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: looked at more than a dozen measures of relative prosperity 521 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,360 Speaker 1: going all the way back to the seventies nineteen seventies, 522 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:26,159 Speaker 1: and on most of these, in fact, Biden is in 523 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 1: fact outperforming UM the last six of the seven predecessors 524 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: UM everything from GDP to non farm payrolls, for example, 525 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: Biden is excelling. And uh, you know that's just the reality, 526 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 1: if you like. And but does the average American feel that? 527 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 1: Do you think, because as you make this point in 528 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: your column, that inflation is so hot right now, it's 529 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: basically shredded returns across stocks and bonds. If you think 530 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 1: about what that has meant for retirement accounts. I mean, 531 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 1: as inflation just so a big front and center issue 532 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 1: that that's being overlooked by voters. Well, I think part 533 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: of it is UM. Our profession journalism has focused NonStop 534 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 1: on inflation, so you know, you hear it over and 535 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: over again. But if you look at the reality, UM, 536 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: many in our profession were saying, we were in a 537 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: recession this year, very prominently. UM. But when you've got 538 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: unemployment hovering at fifty year lows and not just a 539 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: one month two month wonder people have jobs. And then 540 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 1: you put together the if you like, all of the 541 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: very generous social um benefits that came out of COVID nineteen. UM. 542 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 1: You know, for example, UH, Americans are much better equipped 543 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: today ever to weather this spike in prices. You've got UM, 544 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 1: the as I said, COVID nineteen measures that allowed consumers 545 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 1: to build up an enormously high cash cushion. Checkable deposits, 546 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 1: for example, for households and nonprofit organizations rose to four 547 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: point eight nine trillion dollars as the end of June, 548 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: from one point one six billion a trillion at the 549 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: end of two thousand nineteen. So that's a big if 550 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: you like, difference, and that answers your question about are 551 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 1: they better off? And the answer is yeah, inflation has 552 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 1: been high, but again the cushion for that is also unprecedented. 553 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 1: So yes, Americans have been better off. And if you 554 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: take the media um out of it, uh, probably they 555 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 1: would be saying they're better off. But the fact is 556 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 1: we're not in a recession um and the economy is 557 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 1: still robust, which is why the fittest is raising interest rates. 558 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 1: And just on the inflation front, inflation kind of peaked, 559 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 1: so it would seem with the June number of nine 560 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 1: point one percent, it's now more than a percentage point 561 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 1: below that. And if you ask every economist that you 562 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 1: talked to every day, day in and day out, they're 563 00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,960 Speaker 1: telling you that the inflation alarm else have softened significantly 564 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 1: since the summer. And and one of your charts in 565 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: your piece there you talk about the surplus or deficit 566 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,680 Speaker 1: as a percentage of the GDP, and that's where the 567 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 1: Biden administration ranks first. No one's done it better in 568 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 1: terms of reducing our deficit. And you know, I know 569 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 1: the President talks about it, but that's just probably a 570 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: financial and economic issue that most Americans probably can't really 571 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 1: grasp it. It's more of that's something for years down there. Well, 572 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 1: except for the fact that the Republicans persistently bring it up, 573 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: and they have repeatedly, and as you say, the fact 574 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 1: is the almost ten percentage point decline in the federal 575 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 1: budget deficit is a percentage of GDP to five point 576 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 1: four percent from fifteen point six per uh. That's unprecedented. 577 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 1: And you have to go back to Clinton Presidents Clinton 578 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: and Carter, who reduced the deficit two point four percentage 579 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 1: points one point one percentage points, respectively. Having set all that, 580 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 1: the deficit went up under Donald Trump, it went up 581 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: under George H. W. Bush, it went up, you know, 582 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 1: under Ronald Reagan, Um, it went up under Barack Obama, 583 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: and it went up under George W. Bush. So this 584 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: is an issue that Republicans persistently raised, and Biden has 585 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 1: a very credible record after the mid terms if the 586 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,520 Speaker 1: Republicans have the edge saying well, don't look at me, 587 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 1: I'm the one who did more on this issue than 588 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 1: anyone has. Right. Interesting stuff, all right, Matt Winkler, great 589 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 1: column talking about the President Biden here at the midterms 590 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: and his economic policies pretty darn good when you're you know, 591 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 1: you could compare him to recent presidents. That's Matt Winkler, 592 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: editor in chief Emritus and Bloomberg News, joining us here 593 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. As always, he doesn't 594 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 1: mail it in, Katie. We have some folks to mail 595 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 1: it in, but Matt's not one of them. He tends 596 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: to come in, uh and show up, so we appreciate that. Well. 597 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 1: It is mid term election day in America. A number 598 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: of key states have very very close races that will 599 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,000 Speaker 1: ultimately have an impact on Congress, the balance of power 600 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,479 Speaker 1: and Congress as well as certain state houses as well 601 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 1: across the country. Let's round table this thing get kind 602 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 1: of just get some perspective here. Liam Denning, he's an 603 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: opinion columnists with Bloomberk. He's gonna join us to talk 604 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 1: about It's got a recent column out there saying the 605 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 1: five dollar gas is really affecting the midterms. Let's think 606 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,960 Speaker 1: think broadly defined inflation. And then calumnist John Author's also 607 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: joins to get his sense of how this market may 608 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,080 Speaker 1: react going forward and what maybe a little bit of 609 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 1: a shift towards the Republican Party. Liam Onna start with you. 610 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: You've got your column out there. I think it kind 611 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 1: of goes to that issue. You know, you can talk 612 00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: about reducing the federal depths, that all you want, if 613 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 1: you're Joe Biden. But at the end of the day, 614 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 1: it's what I'm paying at the pump, what I'm paying 615 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 1: at the supermarket. That that's a tough challenge. Yeah, I mean, 616 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: I think it's a fact of American politics that any 617 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 1: incumbent policy takes the blame for where pump prices are, 618 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:03,920 Speaker 1: and you know, even though they generally lack any means 619 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: of affecting them in the short term. Energy is definitely 620 00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: a high up on the agenda in this in this election. 621 00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:16,759 Speaker 1: If you look at the the Pew Centers holding of 622 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 1: of registered voters, it's it's interesting, actually energy is up 623 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:24,360 Speaker 1: there as as a as an issue. It's above violent crime, 624 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: it's above immigration, it's above abortion. Um, it's also curiously 625 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,440 Speaker 1: the only one on which the same proportion of Republican 626 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 1: and Democratic voters agree, it being a high profile issue. 627 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: And what I was trying to do with this with 628 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 1: this column was to say, you know, obviously we've seen 629 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,439 Speaker 1: high gasoline prices this year. They hit an all time 630 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:52,400 Speaker 1: peak of average average level of five bucks in the summer, 631 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: And I was just trying to show that psychologically that 632 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 1: is damaging for the Democrats. But actually when you show 633 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 1: show in the context of average incomes, um, you know, 634 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 1: the dad to the American wallet is quite significantly below 635 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 1: what we've seen in prior price spikes. Yeah, I'm not 636 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 1: going at that same number. You're looking at that five 637 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,600 Speaker 1: dollars back in June. We're now down at about three 638 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 1: dollars and eighty cents. It's come down pretty substantially, but 639 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 1: still maybe the damage was done. In terms of a 640 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 1: narrative and John Arthur's you know, it appears that um, 641 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 1: you know from some of the rhetoric and some of 642 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 1: the reporting I've seen that you know, there's a chance 643 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 1: that this election, this midterm wal till more towards the Republicans. 644 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 1: If that is in fact the case, how do you 645 00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 1: think markets will react, Well, it would be a very 646 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 1: big surprise if if the Republicans don't at the very 647 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,319 Speaker 1: least win the House. And if that isn't very clear 648 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:55,320 Speaker 1: by the time we go to bed tonight. Um, I 649 00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,520 Speaker 1: therefore think that's that's largely in the price. We're probably 650 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 1: not going to see that big a reaction to it. 651 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 1: I think what would make for much more interesting outcomes 652 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: would be exactly how policy towards Ukraine changes. I've heard 653 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:17,719 Speaker 1: various straws in the wind suggesting that if there is 654 00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 1: a Republican control of Congress, it becomes that much harder 655 00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:27,240 Speaker 1: for the administration to support Ukraine all the way because 656 00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:31,480 Speaker 1: there are these currents within the Republican Party that that 657 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:36,680 Speaker 1: that are opposed to that are opposed to conflict with Russia, 658 00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:40,919 Speaker 1: and that that might mean that Zelinski in Ukraine comes 659 00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,640 Speaker 1: under more pressure from the States to um to sue 660 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 1: for peace. That would be market positive any number of 661 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 1: We don't have time to go through the huge issue 662 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 1: of whether that's actually good news, but in terms of 663 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,719 Speaker 1: the short medium term for markets, that would be very 664 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:03,960 Speaker 1: market positive. This leads to some meaningful resolution of the 665 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,960 Speaker 1: the Ukraine conflict sooner rather than later. I think that's 666 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:13,320 Speaker 1: the single biggest thing. The greatest concern plainly would be 667 00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:18,600 Speaker 1: playing games with the debt scening. UM, So all third 668 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:24,360 Speaker 1: years of presidential cycles are great um. That's lots and 669 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 1: lots of sell side people have pointed out one exception 670 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 1: where it only just got positive right at the end 671 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 1: of the year was twenty uh twenty eleven, and that 672 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:40,120 Speaker 1: was the year of the debt ceiling debacle when SMP 673 00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:44,319 Speaker 1: actually downgrade the US Treasury debt. If if the Republicans 674 00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 1: are serious they're going to try doing that again, that 675 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,719 Speaker 1: would be a problem. I'm not sure they are, but 676 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 1: they're talking, is that they're prepared to do that. Hey, 677 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 1: Lia'm going back to you. I'm interest thinking about it again. 678 00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,800 Speaker 1: Inflation broadly defined, it's it's a it's a headwind certainly 679 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,800 Speaker 1: for this administration, in for the Democratic Party here. But 680 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,840 Speaker 1: then when you think about just the energy and the 681 00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: five dollar guests, you know, you just wonder why President 682 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,760 Speaker 1: Biden and the Democrats continue to hammer on big energy, 683 00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,640 Speaker 1: you know that whereas they presumably could be the solution 684 00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:19,040 Speaker 1: here to the problem. Well, I think Biden is is 685 00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 1: caught between two competing objectives, right. One is one is 686 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 1: this uh, this sweeping green agenda that was an integral 687 00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 1: part of his platform. And then the other is the 688 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:35,400 Speaker 1: reality that you know, in the meantime, while you're waiting 689 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,719 Speaker 1: for the energy transition to come along, you're going to 690 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:42,360 Speaker 1: face periodic energy crisis and you're still going to be 691 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:46,640 Speaker 1: relying on the incumbent energy system. And so we've seen, 692 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,560 Speaker 1: I think Biden, you know, swing between you know, trying 693 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:56,440 Speaker 1: to cajole the domestic exploration and production sector into producing 694 00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 1: more oil and then realizing that, um, you know, his 695 00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,920 Speaker 1: tools for addressing pump prices are fairly limited them resourcing 696 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:08,439 Speaker 1: to the rhetoric of blaming the industry for not doing more. 697 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,360 Speaker 1: Um you know. I think part of the problem here is, 698 00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 1: as I said, you know, even five dollar gasoline is 699 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,320 Speaker 1: not as big of a bite out of disposable personal 700 00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,839 Speaker 1: income as it used to be. I think the big 701 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 1: problem the Democrats face is that this has been the 702 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 1: single this year has seen the single biggest jump in 703 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,640 Speaker 1: terms of the proportion of disposable personal income taken by 704 00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,880 Speaker 1: gasoline on record, and that's data going back to the 705 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,719 Speaker 1: late nineties fifties. I think it's the whiplash effect on 706 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:45,399 Speaker 1: consumers that Biden and the Democrats fear. Yeah, I think 707 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,440 Speaker 1: that's okay, a giant real quick thirty seconds. Are you 708 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: in the camp that says grid luck is good for markets, 709 00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:54,879 Speaker 1: It's almost always good for bonded markets because it tends 710 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,880 Speaker 1: to mean that you don't spend. That's why the critical 711 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,759 Speaker 1: question is whether the Republicans would really do brinkmanship over 712 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:05,439 Speaker 1: the debt scene. Again, I would be more cautious about 713 00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,920 Speaker 1: whether it's really so good for stocks. Um. There are 714 00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:13,080 Speaker 1: things that the federal government can do that will actually 715 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,719 Speaker 1: benefit some companies. Uh, And there are times when you 716 00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:21,319 Speaker 1: do want clarity and harmonious government. But the bonds, yes, good. 717 00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 1: All right, We'll see how it plays out. We're not 718 00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,480 Speaker 1: gonna probably won't know tomorrow morning, but certainly over the 719 00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,239 Speaker 1: next several days and maybe even weeks. Liam Denning, he's 720 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Opinion calms covers energy, amongst other things. Joining Us, 721 00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:36,000 Speaker 1: as well as John Author's Bloomberg Opinion calumnist Join Us 722 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:37,920 Speaker 1: gives a sense kind of how this may play out 723 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 1: from a market's perspective on this election date. Thanks for 724 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,239 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 725 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:51,440 Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 726 00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,799 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt 727 00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,359 Speaker 1: Miller three. Pet On Ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at 728 00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,040 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the pod asked, you can always catch 729 00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:04,640 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio m