WEBVTT - Could Israel Have Prevented Hamas's October 7th Attack? 0:00:04.800 --> 0:00:07.960 Hi everyone, I'm Kitty Kuric, and this is next question. 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:15.760 As the war between Israel and Hamas enters its second month, 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:19.360 nothing is certain, but even as we look forward to 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:23.000 the end of this conflict, its origins have a lot 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:26.400 to tell the world. The latest revelation comes from New 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:31.000 York Times reporters Ronan Bergmann and Adam Goldman, reporting from 0:00:31.040 --> 0:00:34.920 Tel Aviv on the developing story of an Israeli intelligence 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:38.960 failure that, if acted upon, may have stopped this war 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:42.960 before it even began. Bergmann and Goldman have discovered that 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:48.159 Israeli intelligence had Hamas's battle plan for October seventh in 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:52.800 hand nearly a year before the attack. In this episode, 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:56.760 they outlined the intelligence Israel had and when they had it. 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:01.000 They also provide insightful analysis of how a threat like 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:05.120 this could be dismissed as imaginary and what this grave 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:10.080 misstep means for not only this conflict, but Israel's idea 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:14.080 of itself in the larger world. Ronan, I know when 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:20.480 you first started asking your sources within Israel's intelligence community 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:24.280 about the attack, everyone told you they had quote no 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:29.800 idea and were completely blindsided. In retrospect, do you believe 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:31.360 they were telling the truth. 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.880 Some of the WS some of them, I'm not sure. 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:40.880 And this is also this almost spontaneous, immediate sort of 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:46.440 admittal to a major failure. We're talking about maybe three 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:50.840 thousand people preparing for a moment, and Israel doesn't know anything. 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:54.640 So I started to think maybe the middle is too 0:01:54.760 --> 0:02:01.320 fast to hide another much more problematic truth. I don't 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:05.040 want to say that, I don't believe how I know 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:11.800 that there was no deliberate hiding of information that could 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:17.080 bring Israeli force us to be ready for this horrific attack. 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.680 At the end, this will take the lives of many, 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:23.280 and of course those who are in charge of the 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:27.839 Israeli defense establishment and the intelligence community, they already took 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:30.240 responsibility and said that when this is over, I mean 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:34.400 the war is over, they will conclude, they will come 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:38.360 to the conclusions, which in Israel in Hebrew means they 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:41.239 will resign. But it's not going to be the first 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:46.160 time that things that happened, that signs were not interpreted 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:50.600 in the right way. So to say nothing came through 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:55.639 our channels, it's embarrassing. It means that this intelligence officer 0:02:55.720 --> 0:03:00.679 or agency admit they had nothing The coverage was not right, 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:05.880 not accessing the right places in Hamas, But to admit 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:10.600 that there were signs that were not regarded as signs 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.640 for preemptive attack, that's more embarrassing. 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:18.760 Ronin not long after those initial conversations began, you started 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:24.200 hearing stories about the existence of something called the email 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:27.600 threat with the Southern Command and a woman who got 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:31.760 it right. Can you explain what you started to hear 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:33.880 circulating about those things? 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:37.320 So this story is taking place mainly in something called 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:41.920 Unit eight two hundred. That's the biggest, one single unit 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:49.560 in the Israeli defense establishment. It's bigger than MOSAD. These 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:52.800 really foreign intelligence agency, or she'd bet the is really 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:57.920 domestic intelligence agency that are more famous. But this is 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:01.240 just one unit of military into religious is the equivalent 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:04.680 to the American and issae of the British GCHQ in 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:10.520 charge of the collection of singand sigular intelligence and cyber intelligence. 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:15.560 If there is an expectation that Israeli intelligence would bring 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:21.560 an alert, would bring sufficient intelligence to notify Israeli leaders 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:25.760 that the creative strike from the enemy's coming, it's mainly 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.600 on the shoulders of this Unit eight two hundred, and 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:30.920 something was happening there. 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:37.520 So this very elite group of Israeli intelligence officials, military 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:43.840 intelligence officials started to get word that something was going on, Adam, 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.599 can you explain what the email thread with the Southern 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:49.560 Command and the woman who got it right was. 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:55.160 Well, I believe in July of this summer, this veteran 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:59.840 AMAS analyst who had spent her career studying a mo 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:04.640 she knew the voices on the walkie talkie, she knew 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:09.120 the families, intimate details of the people who she would 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:13.000 eavesdrop on. She had learned that there was a belive 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:17.000 a training exercise two months prior, and so she came 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:21.880 to the conclusion, based on her expertise and her knowledge 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:25.560 of the people involved in the training and some of 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:28.720 the things they did in the training, that this was 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:32.520 no longer in fact a training exercise. It was the 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:38.880 last moment of preparation for these particular Nuukba or Hamas commandos. 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.080 And this was in July, Adam. And in this thread, Ronan, 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:47.960 she also said the drill is quote in complete overlap 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:53.039 with a forty page document called Jericho Wall. Tell me 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:54.840 about that document. 0:05:55.360 --> 0:06:00.200 She just said, it's incomplete overlap with Jericho Wolves. Was 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:05.120 just the word. This term Jericho Wall repeats itself throughout 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:07.719 the thread, and it's clear that this is a code 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:12.120 name for something else, for something that happened before this thread, 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:16.880 for something that is the reference to everything she says 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:20.480 in order to prove her point in the debate that 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:23.880 follows her email with seeing most senior officers. 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.040 So what is jericho wall ronin? 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:29.440 So this is what I was trying to find out. 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:34.880 Bottom line, Jericho Wall is the code name for a 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:40.560 copy of around forty pages of Hamas Attack Order. It 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:44.000 was obtained more than a year before October seventh, during 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:49.599 twenty twenty two. It's a top secret Hamas document that 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:55.680 details how to destroy how to break through the front, 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:59.719 the southern israelly front, the Gaza is really border in, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:06.279 fix different places and smuggle through this dispatch through those 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:11.920 holes in the fence some two thousand Hamas gunmen. Now, 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:16.360 just to give a proportion, Israel believed this is why 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.840 this document was regarded as they called it a compass 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:25.040 to building of the force, meaning where Tamas wants to 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:29.280 be in its competence and capabilities, where not the reflection 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:33.440 of where Hamas was. This is the core of Israeli 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:35.560 failure to anticipate what happened. 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.200 We have to take a quick break, and then Ronan 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:45.280 and Adam will share more context and details about Jericho 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:52.640 Wall's origins and purpose. If you want to get smarter 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.840 every morning with a breakdown of the news and fascinating 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:59.280 takes on health and wellness and pop culture, sign up 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:01.840 for our daily news wake up call by going to 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:09.520 Katiecuric dot com. And we're back with Ronan Bergman and 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:14.600 Adam Goldman of The New York Times. So Jericho Wall 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:20.000 was a Hamas document outlining how it would wage an 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:24.040 attack an invasion of Israel. When was that discovered? 0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:28.560 Well, it's by understanding that dating back years, Israel had 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:32.880 versions of that document, and I think the last most 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:36.440 updated document they got was in mid twenty twenty two. 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.040 I think one way to think of the Jericho Wall 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:43.400 document is to think of the D Day invasion of Normandy. 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:45.240 That's what that was. 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:47.760 It was a blueprint basically with. 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.880 An invasion blueprint. Like I said, I imagine it is 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:53.720 the invasion of Normandy. It's the break through the wall. 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.960 The Jericho Wall is the Jerusalem Wall. It's literally a 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:00.960 battle plan to break through the wall or the fortifications 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:03.679 Israel had a massed around the. 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:05.040 Gossars trip Ronan. 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:09.600 The report was meticulously detailed in terms of its knowledge 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.920 of Israeli security and defense information. How do you believe 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:19.360 Hamas was able to have access to such critically important information? 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:20.480 That? 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.080 I think the first question I had when I read 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:26.120 that a few weeks ago. It's such a detailed information 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.280 that I believe at least part of that dealing with 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:35.480 the exact nature location of all the different fortification israll 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.080 put on the wall, the town, they cell phone towers, 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:46.160 the fortress with the automatic controlled machine guns, the communication hubs, 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:48.119 the cameras that drop everything. 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:49.679 How did they know all this? 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.120 Some of that clearly does not come from open media, 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:56.480 open sources, or the social network, or even a gardener, 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:58.599 a palaestinan garden that went to work in one of 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:02.200 the keeble seamen maybe well possibly was recruited by Ramas. 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:07.040 This is a question, maybe a task for our further reporting. 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.760 I assume that this is also one of the questions 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:14.760 that Israeli authorities are dealing with now. But it's not 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:19.600 just the intelligence, but how the intelligence is translated into 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:23.559 a detailed plan of attack with the aim of breaking 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:30.079 the fence, letting hundreds of teams of Ramask gunmen storm through, 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:34.120 each one with a different plan to a different location. 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:38.960 Would the first location be the division headquarters in the Inn. 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:44.160 This is the base from where they control the whole front. 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.000 All of that done at the same time when power 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:51.480 glides and drones are sent over to explode those towers 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:56.439 and communication hubs, when a massive bombardment of motors at 0:10:56.520 --> 0:11:01.560 missiles and rockets is rained all over to create diversion. 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:05.880 All of that create intelligence and operational folk to the 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:09.280 extent that it took many hours until the idea if 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:15.160 sad Koman in Central Kouman realized what was happening, Adam. 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:19.360 How many people knew about this forty page document? For example, 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:24.360 was Netanyahu aware of it? Were other top political leaders 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:25.120 aware of it? 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:28.080 I'll let run and speak to that. But I would 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:34.400 also add one of the keys to success for Hamas 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:39.880 was ensuring that few people within Hamas's senior ranks knew 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.960 about that. And it's clear only a handful of people 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:48.559 within hamas its most senior ranks signore the leader Mohammed 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:53.760 diff These people, basically the shure of Hamas knew about that. 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:57.000 In fact, today I was at a very sensitive briefing 0:11:57.040 --> 0:12:01.880 with the Israeli intelligence and they they themselves believed that 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:05.440 very few of the people who the fighters who were 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.559 actually sent to Israel knew what was going to happen 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:11.120 that day, and they only learned about it within the 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:12.480 first few hours of the attack. 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:15.760 So you're saying it was a very small circle of 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:21.160 Hamas leadership that had access to this highly sensitive information. 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.280 Part of the plan was using deception and surprise. They 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:28.720 knew they had to deceive the Israelis into thinking that 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.400 they were not going to attack, and of course they 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:35.760 needed the element of surprise to do that, and they 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:38.960 succeeded on both fronts. And that's because they kept the 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.880 circle small. Right is they used to say in World 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:45.880 War Two, loose lips sink ships. Right, So they had 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:50.240 the discipline to ensure that their plans didn't leak. Though 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:54.400 to Israel's credit, they had the plans and ronan how 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:56.920 many people knew of this blueprint? 0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:01.480 Bb net and Yahoo top political leader who was aware 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:03.119 that this existed. 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.600 So again this is another question we are looking at, 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:10.559 but clearly this is from many documents that we review. 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:15.000 The top leadership of the military and the intelligence community 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.800 where part of the loop who saw the document back 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:23.720 in twenty twenty two. This was not hidden from anyone, 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:30.040 This was not disregard. It was wrongly analyzed. That's the mistake. 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:32.920 This state was shown and it's you know, and that mistake, 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:37.680 though very hard to measure, has also these same scenes, 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.720 bad scenes of failure that led to the Yoki puh 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:48.679 blunder fifty years and a day before October seventh, vanity hubris, 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:55.400 feeling or certainty that the enemy is just uncapable and 0:13:55.520 --> 0:14:01.520 stupid to perform strategic deception. And it's unbelievable how much 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:05.320 similarities we don't at the time, but how many, how 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.880 many similarities there are between those two fists. 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.040 Not only that, but I know, Adam, you've compared it 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:16.200 to the intelligence failure that preceded nine to eleven. Do 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.400 you think that really is an accurate parallel? It was 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:22.520 hubris that really led to it or was it a 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.120 lack of communication? I mean, how do you see these 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:26.640 two things comparing? 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.280 They have a few things in common. One is that 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:34.080 nine to eleven wasn't a failure of intelligence collection, right, 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:39.160 nine to eleven was a failure of imagination, like the Americans, 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:44.240 like the Israelis, had developed information that al Qaida was 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.480 going to attack the US. President Bush was made aware 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:50.360 of that in August of two thousand and one. I 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:52.400 think the title of the membo that went down and 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:57.320 the President's dailian briefing was blinking red, right. So it 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.640 wasn't a failure of collection. They knew they needed to know. 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:05.440 But there was a lack of urgency and a. 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:09.040 Lack of communication among agencies. I mean, I covered that, 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.200 and I remember that was the big thing, that none 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.000 of these people were talking to each other. 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:18.400 The big blunder was the FBI was only told later 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:22.600 that to al Qaeda operatives. Midhart Hamsey had actually entered 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:25.720 the United States, putting the FBI on their heels, right 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:28.960 and reacting whether they had to find them and then 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.480 figure out what they were doing. You know what seems 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.080 to be, and we don't know this for sure, is 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:38.400 that I think Israeli authorities think that there were Palestinian 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.720 workers on the ground in Israel collecting intelligence, so imagine 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:46.120 midharn Hamsey, but you know many more midharn Hamsey's and 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.440 Israel was gathering the work for Hamash right under the 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.080 noses of the shin Bet, which is the equivalent of 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:56.160 the FBI. You know, I also think that Israeli intelligence, 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.440 at least it seems at this point that it was 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.960 effected by confirmation bias, and confirmation bias can be deadly. 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:08.200 We saw it happen on January sixth, right with the insurrection, 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.440 right with the sacking of the capitol. There are many 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.760 many red flags that were apparent to the FBI, which 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.640 is in charge of thwarting domestic terrorists in this country. 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.760 And at the end, it's sort of like Hamas the 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:23.880 FBI didn't think that anything would happen, and these people 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:25.960 were going to do exactly what they did, and they 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.880 had forecasted even though it was only rhetoric. So I 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.000 think they're parallels too with j six and what happened here, 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:33.880 though obviously less fatalities. 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:39.640 Ronan, can you elaborate on some of the wrong analysis 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:44.640 that happened with all these warning signs, because I know 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.280 you've written about others as well. So you have this 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:53.960 senior female intelligence analyst raising concerns, you have this Jericho 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:58.800 Walls forty page document that's a blueprint, what other factors 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:04.240 Ronan were at play that made Israeli officials not take 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:05.800 these threats seriously. 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.359 There are three main reasons for the failures. The first 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:16.440 one was a total misunderstanding of intent. Israel thought that 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:20.480 Jeja Sinumar, that the leader of Hamas is they said 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:25.919 contained or detered and in any case, is looking for 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:30.520 sort of a ceasefire. He's not looking to esculate, he's 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.240 not looking for all out war. Just five days before 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:38.960 this happened, in a public radio interview, the National Security 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.760 Advisor to Letaniao said Hamas has learned the lesson from 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:46.640 the previous rounds of hostilities with Israel. The Cutteries were 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:49.320 mediating between Israel and Hamas, and I would say not 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:53.439 just Israel and Hamas. Caamas is an anxiety leadership based 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:57.280 in Doha in Kato, but it was the Israelis knew 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:01.159 that the cutterarist are calling Sinuar to get his approval 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:05.200 to reduce the violence of oblos close to the border 0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:08.840 in exchange for Israel giving more working permits inside Israel. 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:12.879 Working permits meaning money coming from Israel to Gaza. That 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:16.359 means a lot of people dependent on money from Israel. 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:20.280 Israel thought all of that as a very good sign. 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:24.760 Even that analyst she said, what I'm saying is not imminent. 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:28.919 She accepted the point of view that there's no clear 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:33.480 indication of intent to launch that attack. The other one is, 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:37.640 of course a total misjudgment of their capabilities, which we discussed, 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:43.400 and the third one is not having any reliable intelligence 0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:49.040 any signs suggesting that Hamas is going to attack at 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:53.119 that day. The first sign was received at half past 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.119 Bidnet in the night between the six and the seven. 0:18:56.640 --> 0:19:00.159 It led the chief of Shibat deployed Takila is the 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:04.240 secret unit, that is u Okuda, Jervis and unit. But 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:08.200 because everybody thought that Haramaskn only deployed two teams of 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.680 up to seventy, they sent te Quilla that can confront 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:15.200 up to two teams. But we're talking about an all 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:19.120 out invasion to Israel. It's not a rain, it's war. 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:25.600 And so or that together just created this unbelievable fiasta. 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:30.280 You say the senior intelligence officer, the woman didn't think 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:34.680 it was eminent, but when she was told this plan 0:19:34.880 --> 0:19:39.639 was imaginary, she responded by saying, quote, I utterly refute 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:43.040 that this scenario is imaginary. It is a plan designed 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:46.040 to start a war. It's not just a raid on 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:50.360 a village. So while she might not have believed it 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:55.639 was imminent, she obviously believed it was extremely serious. 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:59.720 And she expressed with a very clear and shock wards 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:04.959 replying to that officer, which she might interpret it as 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:09.800 a little bit chauvinistic or you know, paternalism, he said, basically, 0:20:09.880 --> 0:20:14.840 Hamas doesn't have the capability to execute Jericho Wohl. She said, no, 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:19.240 I am the one who monitored Hamas and military exercise. 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.800 It's serious. They do have the capabilities. She was she 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:27.119 to call it, but the only ones that realized Hamas 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:33.040 narrowed the gap between what it could do and Jericho Wohl. 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.399 And now Hamas is capable, though they didn't know if 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:41.800 it's happening, but it's capable of launching this massive, horrenderous 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:43.399 invasion into Israel. 0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:52.120 When we come back more with Ronan and Adam about 0:20:52.160 --> 0:21:04.439 how these intelligence failures happened, and we're back with Ronan 0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:08.960 Bergman and Adam Goldman of the New York Times, Do 0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:11.920 either of you think sexism might have played a role 0:21:11.960 --> 0:21:15.240 in this, because a lot of people that I've spoken 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:18.639 with said, you know, it was because it was a woman, 0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:20.840 her concerns were dismissed. 0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:25.320 Well, there had been stories in the Israeli media about 0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:29.760 women who were on the border and observation post running balloons, 0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:32.760 who were dismissed. And in fact, you know, I got 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:35.679 an email from somebody after our story ran too, you know, 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.320 basically accused as well of sexism. You know, there's another 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:44.720 parallel with the CIA and al Qaeda was zero dark thirty. Yeah, 0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:47.320 it was zero dark thirty. And you know this intelligence 0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:50.359 analyst who worked for eighty two hundred at the end 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:53.240 of the day, she had a strong hunch based on 0:21:53.280 --> 0:21:58.880 her expertise, right, she couldn't articulate to her bosses, who 0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:01.840 would then after artic to the leadership of the IDF 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:04.720 and the country. You know, Nan Yahoo that an attack 0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:08.000 was imminent. Right, But if you look what happened in 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:10.439 zero dort thirty, it was a woman, right, It was 0:22:10.520 --> 0:22:13.159 women who drove the reporting on al Qaeda in and 0:22:13.200 --> 0:22:15.560 it was a woman Maya, I know her real name. 0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:19.600 She drove this reporting on bin Laden where he might be. 0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:23.800 And let's remember that was essentially a hunch, right, there 0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:25.960 was you know, there was a guy they didn't see. 0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:28.800 They thought he was tall, and there was a courier 0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:31.639 right who was close to bin Laden who was working, 0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.320 but they never knew Ben Lauden was there, right. But 0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:36.560 I think the difference here with Israel is that she 0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:39.200 had an advocate, and her advocate was the director of 0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:42.520 the CIA, and the director of the CIA, Liam Panetta, 0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:45.560 pushed this. I think it was Panetta who who gave 0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:49.119 a fairly optimistic rating. What did he say? There was 0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:51.679 a ninety percent chance that bin Laden was in that 0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:55.440 compound and because she had she had an advocate like 0:22:55.520 --> 0:22:59.280 liamp Panetta, that raid got done. It doesn't happen without 0:22:59.320 --> 0:23:02.600 the big boss. And I'm not sure this woman who 0:23:02.800 --> 0:23:07.000 Israeli media described to me had those type of advocates. 0:23:07.000 --> 0:23:09.800 And when you look at the email chain, you don't 0:23:09.800 --> 0:23:13.440 see that, right. They describe what she says as imaginary. 0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:15.760 And you know, Ronan has made a great point. It's 0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:18.520 not that they dismissed this, It's not that they didn't 0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:22.240 take this seriously. Imagine the time and effort Israel invested 0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:26.560 in me getting these plans. This is a serious intelligence operation. 0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:28.879 Even get your hands on these plants. And one of 0:23:28.920 --> 0:23:31.439 the officials acknowledged in the email chain there was some 0:23:31.520 --> 0:23:34.200 gold in here, right, But at the end of the day, 0:23:34.720 --> 0:23:38.800 she didn't have a strong enough advocate who went to 0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:42.360 the leadership of AIDF and said, listen, at a minimum, 0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:44.880 we need to lose some forces to the border, right. 0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:46.960 Gronan, Have you met with her at all? 0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:51.520 No? No, No, she's an active duty non officer commander. 0:23:52.440 --> 0:23:56.600 She cannot meet with journalists. But I think the tragedy 0:23:56.680 --> 0:24:01.440 here is that she goted rights. I'm sure that parts 0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:04.680 of this email exchange will end up in the pages 0:24:05.000 --> 0:24:09.880 of the inquiry investigation panel that will be established to investigate. 0:24:10.440 --> 0:24:13.680 The tragedy is that it was left in the capsule 0:24:14.400 --> 0:24:18.880 of few analysts and few officers up to the rank 0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:24.120 of the connelly. None of those took that as other 0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:28.600 indicated and said, okay, let's write a memo, let's take 0:24:28.640 --> 0:24:33.320 it to someone more senior. And this was just left 0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:36.280 sort of in the air of this thread with no 0:24:36.400 --> 0:24:39.359 further investigation to substantiate it or dis orbit. 0:24:39.960 --> 0:24:42.920 Well, it sounds to me that Israel was lulled into 0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:47.639 a false sense of security by these other factors that 0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:52.639 were transpiring, sort of more soft intelligence, kind of a 0:24:52.800 --> 0:25:00.000 sense that Hamas was either incompetent or had been less adversay. 0:25:01.040 --> 0:25:06.600 They thought Hamas Sinua included, is more interested in being 0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:09.720 the governor of the states mostly but the state, the 0:25:10.000 --> 0:25:14.000 Gaza Strip, taking care of the water, the electricity, the 0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:21.119 health services, and not jeopardizing everything they already achieved with 0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:25.040 all out war with Israel because they those don't work together. 0:25:25.560 --> 0:25:30.760 You know, Hamas was obviously much more sophisticated militarily but 0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:36.359 also psychologically in terms of the signals they were sending 0:25:36.640 --> 0:25:41.720 Adam to Israeli intelligence about their intentions. 0:25:42.160 --> 0:25:44.920 It was a grand deception plan and as I said, 0:25:44.960 --> 0:25:47.399 they needed to pull off. The deception. Part of this 0:25:47.760 --> 0:25:50.960 is essentially a false flag. You know, they gave a 0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:55.200 false they were providing false signals to Israel and Israel 0:25:55.200 --> 0:26:00.920 bottom and you know, Sineoir as somebody said somewhre out 0:26:00.960 --> 0:26:07.119 Israeli the israelis right and studied his adversary and was 0:26:07.160 --> 0:26:10.800 incredibly patient. And you know, as I said earlier today, 0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:13.399 I was at a military base with a unit that 0:26:13.480 --> 0:26:18.320 exploits information or documenting computers found on the battlefield, and 0:26:18.400 --> 0:26:20.560 we were able to look at that information and it 0:26:20.640 --> 0:26:24.840 was extraordinary. The amount of preparation that they put into 0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:31.199 this attack was really really, really extraordinary, and it shows 0:26:31.200 --> 0:26:35.080 a level of patients that these people had to pull 0:26:35.160 --> 0:26:35.640 this off. 0:26:36.200 --> 0:26:40.040 Ronan, You've said that Israel got completely enchanted by the 0:26:40.080 --> 0:26:44.679 elaborate security measures in the wall that separated Gaza and Israel. 0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:48.679 Did that add to this false sense of security with 0:26:48.800 --> 0:26:49.280 no doubts. 0:26:49.560 --> 0:26:53.720 Together with two other colleagues, Markmzeediet the Patrick Kings League, 0:26:54.040 --> 0:26:58.000 The New York Times reported what happened after the fence 0:26:58.400 --> 0:27:01.520 was erected. No, this is the fence that goes a 0:27:01.600 --> 0:27:06.200 few meters above ground, one hundred meters that's very deep underground. 0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:12.760