WEBVTT - Year-End Fiscal Cliffs Approaching

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Global News. There is a lot going on talk about

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<v Speaker 1>a self testing kit for home that happening in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. Over in Europe, though, you did see a

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<v Speaker 1>protest over Germany strategy to quell the virus turning violent.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, it's really rough out there and this is

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<v Speaker 1>a place environment we all know far too well. Back

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<v Speaker 1>with us to see what she is seeing and concerned

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<v Speaker 1>about is a Lissa rap CEO of the healthcare solutions

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<v Speaker 1>company Surgical Solutions. She is with us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from Deerfield, Illinois. Um, Alissa, good to have you here.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you And when you see these headlines, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you're out there in the Midwest. I mean, that's really

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<v Speaker 1>been a tough spot. It has, Caroline, thanks for having

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<v Speaker 1>me back being a rise and surge across the country. Candidly,

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<v Speaker 1>are incidences of exposure or even positivity in our own

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<v Speaker 1>company amongst our tuner and fifty employees across nine states

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<v Speaker 1>and thirty five hospitals is pretty much even. We've seen

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<v Speaker 1>additional you know, exposure or positivity in New York, Kinnesseed, Texas, Kentucky,

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<v Speaker 1>and it is obviously back. I'm not an epidemiologist, as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, so I know that the viral load of

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<v Speaker 1>the virus changes over time and it makes it easier

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<v Speaker 1>to transmit. So hopefully people who are getting this version

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<v Speaker 1>of this horrible COVID nineteen flu are not gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>as sick if they're healthy and young. But it is

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<v Speaker 1>still it is back that the numbers are real. We're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing it across the country well, and it's interesting. We

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<v Speaker 1>just talked a story. We just talked about a story

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<v Speaker 1>Charlie Pellet and I about how COVID is really, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>ravaging those long term care centers and we know that's

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<v Speaker 1>where the elderly population is. We understand those numbers, but

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<v Speaker 1>I've just talking to it individual here at Bloomberg and

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<v Speaker 1>uh talked about her nephew succumbing to the virus. So

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<v Speaker 1>we do understand that as much as we know some

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID nineteen is predictable, we also know that there

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<v Speaker 1>are outliers and we don't know still a lot about

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<v Speaker 1>this virus. Having said that, the vaccine and the developments

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<v Speaker 1>we've had over the last week and a half from

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<v Speaker 1>Fiser and from Maderna, what's your takeaway there? I find

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<v Speaker 1>it incredibly encouraging. I think the vaccines are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be game changers, needless to say. And the only real

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<v Speaker 1>question of my mind as a health care service provider

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<v Speaker 1>is a question around distributions. They need to be stored

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<v Speaker 1>between UH fifty and hundred blow fahrenheit. Then obviously we

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<v Speaker 1>need the military and FedEx and UPS working together on

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<v Speaker 1>a on a combined distribution strategy that leverages single sites

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<v Speaker 1>that have these massive freezers as well as mobile sites.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think creativity and real genius in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>logistics and planning is going to be what needs to

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<v Speaker 1>happen between now and say April May June, when we

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<v Speaker 1>get to true general pop relation roll out of the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>But for frontline healthcare workers, I'm still pretty bullish and

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic because if those vaccines can start happening in our

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<v Speaker 1>major metropolis and major sites in December, the second shot

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<v Speaker 1>in January, whether it's the Visor Maderna or any other vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>that means that if we can get first responders and

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<v Speaker 1>frontline healthcare workers vaccinated, then the most at risk, then

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<v Speaker 1>the then the rollout further. There should be an abatement

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<v Speaker 1>of the spread and it should meet it provides some

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<v Speaker 1>relief to our healthcare system. Well, and you've got to

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<v Speaker 1>be thinking unless about your workers specifically, right and making

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<v Speaker 1>sure that they are frontline workers. Uh, and they need

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<v Speaker 1>to have access to this vaccine. Um. You know, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>curious how you're approaching it. Would you make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>they are among the first to get it? Are your

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<v Speaker 1>workers comfortable getting it? And are you concerned about having

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<v Speaker 1>access ultimately to the vaccine as we kind of try

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<v Speaker 1>and figure out the distribution and logistics problems of getting

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine out a great Those are all great questions.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel confident in our frontline healthcare workers ability to

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<v Speaker 1>get access to the vaccine because we follow each hospital's

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<v Speaker 1>protocol for all things clinical. When we work with our

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<v Speaker 1>hospital partners, and if their frontline teams are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be asked to vaccinate, ours will too. And so if

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<v Speaker 1>it's being provided to hospitals across the country for their

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<v Speaker 1>frontline workers, I am hopeful and confident we will get

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<v Speaker 1>that access. And I think that the first twenty million

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<v Speaker 1>UH doses of the vaccine seemed pretty locked and loaded

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<v Speaker 1>for December. So again, if we can make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>that happens and nothing stops it, I think the frontline

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<v Speaker 1>and first responder should be in good, good shape. It's

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<v Speaker 1>really that next wave of rollout, Carol, that I personally

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<v Speaker 1>am curious about. Once our frontline healthcare workers are taken

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<v Speaker 1>care of, and the countries, after the prioritization for the

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<v Speaker 1>for the elderly and the most at risk, how then

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<v Speaker 1>do we ensure that mass distribution happens. I'm confident by

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<v Speaker 1>the spring will have mass production of vaccine. Mass distribution

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<v Speaker 1>becomes a bigger challenge. Yeah, listen, I think about that too,

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of it getting out, and you know, we've

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<v Speaker 1>been done a lot of reporting about that's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>our next big headache. And because you know, countries have

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<v Speaker 1>relationships and deals with various UM drug makers and so

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<v Speaker 1>so you really do wonder, you know, what kind of

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<v Speaker 1>horse trading might ultimately be going, you know, going on.

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<v Speaker 1>And that kind of terrifies me, especially when I think

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<v Speaker 1>about people who really need it. When I think about

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<v Speaker 1>developing markets, I mean, it's really going to be, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>a logistics nightmare. Globally, it's going to be challenging. And remember,

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<v Speaker 1>the regular food vaccine can be stored at thirty seven

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<v Speaker 1>degrees terrified and below, and and even that sometimes poses challenges,

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<v Speaker 1>and this hundred degree below is a real thing. But

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<v Speaker 1>I know that the biggest sites of points of distribution

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<v Speaker 1>are already shoring up for those capabilities. I'm confident that

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<v Speaker 1>in our country specifically, the ingenuity around distributional logistics means

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<v Speaker 1>that we should be able to come up with a

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<v Speaker 1>mobile UM mechanism for distributing even this very unusually cold vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm hopeful. I think that we'll see a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of opening up come next summer. So listen, I know

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked about schools. I know last time around we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about UM and I think you you said that

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<v Speaker 1>you don't think children are super spreaders. Because we were

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<v Speaker 1>talking about schools reopening. I have to say, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's interesting, I'm getting a lot of emails from around

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<v Speaker 1>the newsroom about city looks New York City schools are closing.

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<v Speaker 1>I actually think cities are being smart that as soon

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<v Speaker 1>as they start to see numbers go up, UH in

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<v Speaker 1>certainly just around the country. As soon as they start

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<v Speaker 1>to see those numbers go up, I mean, New York

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<v Speaker 1>remembers how bad it was, and I think they quickly

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<v Speaker 1>moved to say we gotta we gotta pull back, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's how we hopefully can maybe prevent this from becoming

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<v Speaker 1>New York City back in March, April and May. Yeah. There.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there are two different questions, right Carol. One

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<v Speaker 1>is our children super spreaders, and there's an abundance of data,

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<v Speaker 1>and you've had many people on your show that have

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<v Speaker 1>talked about how they may or may not be and right,

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<v Speaker 1>we aren't. But there are other stakeholders. And stakeholders are

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<v Speaker 1>teachers and the elderly family members of UH children in

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<v Speaker 1>schools who are living in multigenerational, generational households. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's the answer to whether to keep them open

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<v Speaker 1>or closes is a function from whose stakeholders eyes you're looking,

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that it's likely, um and probable that

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<v Speaker 1>many public schools will end up closing post Thanksgiving, pre

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<v Speaker 1>winter break quote unquote, or even right after winter break, because,

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<v Speaker 1>as we discussed earlier, this vaccine access is likely going

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<v Speaker 1>to be healthcare workers and first responders first, and then

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully in the second wave as soon as January, even

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<v Speaker 1>teachers and others who we consider a central workers. So

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<v Speaker 1>I'm hopeful that once teachers are have access more broadly

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<v Speaker 1>to the vaccine, then they'll be even greater comfort with

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<v Speaker 1>keeping the schools open. But I think it's likely that

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to quote flatten the curve. You can agree

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<v Speaker 1>or disagree, but I think it's likely that schools will

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<v Speaker 1>close for some portion of winter. Yeah, And I guess

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<v Speaker 1>what I was kind of saying is right. I think

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<v Speaker 1>I agree with you because just my own experience with

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<v Speaker 1>my daughter in school, like the schools have been. I feel,

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<v Speaker 1>like knock on wood, we're not necesarily talking about colleges

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<v Speaker 1>and universities. They have had their own strug as um,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think at large things have actually gone gone

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<v Speaker 1>fairly well. And I guess what I'm is interesting, is

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<v Speaker 1>that you're seeing, whether it's the West coast, whether it's here,

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<v Speaker 1>major cities who saw it so badly in the springtime,

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<v Speaker 1>Like we remember this, It wasn't that long ago, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and we don't want to go back to it, so

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<v Speaker 1>that you start to as soon as you start to

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<v Speaker 1>see those numbers go up, you kind of rain things

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<v Speaker 1>in just as hopefully slow it down and more importantly

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully to stop it from spiking once again into that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of out of control area. Yeah, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>that it's also a function of how things have been managed. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>If we're in a hybrid learning environment in our public

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<v Speaker 1>school district here in the suburbs of Chicago, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>all the children have plexiglass shields, everyone's mass or classrooms

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<v Speaker 1>eight students or less. We we certainly may end up

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<v Speaker 1>in a virtual learning mode for a portion of winter,

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<v Speaker 1>just like most public schools. But none of the transmission

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<v Speaker 1>in our our suburban school district has happened within the schools.

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<v Speaker 1>It's happened from people bringing it in from the outside.

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<v Speaker 1>So that is I think many parents great comfort at

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<v Speaker 1>schools are safe, kids are safe in schools. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>community spread is going to be what it is. But

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<v Speaker 1>again I stand by my earlier claim that I don't

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<v Speaker 1>personally believe from the data i've read that children under

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<v Speaker 1>ten are super spreaders by and large themselves. But I

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<v Speaker 1>understand when taking into account multiple stakeholder groups why schools

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<v Speaker 1>may choose and districts public districts may choose to close

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<v Speaker 1>for a portion of winter until these vaccines are more

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<v Speaker 1>widely disseminated. Right, Well said, hey, listen, Um, I want

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<v Speaker 1>to go back to something you said to listen because

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's really important and we've only got about

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<v Speaker 1>a minute or so left here about you said, logistically,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna need military and partnership with fed X. People

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<v Speaker 1>have been saying since March April that we are at war,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a health war, and we need kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>military you know, a military aspect and reaction to it,

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<v Speaker 1>if you will, and we really kind of haven't gotten that.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think a new administration will move in that direction?

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<v Speaker 1>I think that it's likely that a new administration would

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<v Speaker 1>be willing to leverage all tools at its disposal, including

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<v Speaker 1>the US military, to ensure the broadest dissemination of this

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine as quickly as possible. And I also believe that

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<v Speaker 1>our US military is probably uniquely qualified to provide support

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<v Speaker 1>to commercial parties like that X and ups in that way.

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<v Speaker 1>So I really hope for a public private partnership in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of distribution of the vaccine. I think it gives

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<v Speaker 1>us the greatest probability of the greatest dissemination the fast.

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<v Speaker 1>If we don't get that, what what what what? Then?

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<v Speaker 1>Just quickly, I'm not thinking about again. I'm thinking positively, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna get it down so we can have more

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<v Speaker 1>normal lives by next time. Uh hallelujah. I'm off I'm

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<v Speaker 1>an optimist too, and I'd like to get back to

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<v Speaker 1>a more normal life. Um, Alyssa, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for finding time once again for us. Alissa rap she

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<v Speaker 1>is chief executive officer of Surgical Solutions, joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Deerfield, Illinois, and again uh, watching those

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<v Speaker 1>virus headlines, but optimistic about the vaccine and ultimately, if

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<v Speaker 1>we do it right in terms of how we get

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<v Speaker 1>it out logistically and the distribution, we can move much

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<v Speaker 1>closer and much uh faster to a more normal life.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's what we're kind of all hoping for this

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week and the cover story

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<v Speaker 1>this week, And I gotta say, I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>I can say this, Jill Weber. Can I just say

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<v Speaker 1>I got a peek at the cover art you did

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<v Speaker 1>last night. I have to say it truly encapsulates the

0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:29.680
<v Speaker 1>essence of this story. Yeah, it's a fun one. Um.

0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:31.720
<v Speaker 1>And this is one that, um, I think we were

0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:34.200
<v Speaker 1>we we've been interested in for a while because looks

0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:37.720
<v Speaker 1>like the staff of Business Week has a lot of

0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.520
<v Speaker 1>cats and dogs at home. Um, And there have been

0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:44.120
<v Speaker 1>acquisitions that were made during the pandemic. And if you

0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.240
<v Speaker 1>have a dog and go to a dog park like

0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:48.600
<v Speaker 1>I do, you also recognize that there were many, many,

0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.280
<v Speaker 1>many more dogs in this neighborhood than there were before

0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:54.160
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. And one of the big beneficiar areas of

0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 1>this has been Chewy, the online pet retailer that does

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:00.360
<v Speaker 1>pet deliveries. And that's what our stories about, all right.

0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 1>So of course, Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Webber, sorry

0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:04.240
<v Speaker 1>I jumped the gun there, but I wanted to bring

0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:06.600
<v Speaker 1>you in because I love the cover. Uh, and let's

0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:08.760
<v Speaker 1>also bring in Bloomberg News Wealth for Porto, Andrew's mail

0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:11.959
<v Speaker 1>in reporting for Business Week and on the phone from Orlando, Florida,

0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:15.040
<v Speaker 1>Joel on the phone from the remote access from Brooklyn,

0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:17.520
<v Speaker 1>it is and I gotta say, Joel, it's one of

0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.760
<v Speaker 1>those things in the shutdown that as I would walk

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:23.000
<v Speaker 1>my dog Scout around the very quiet neighborhood, I would

0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.840
<v Speaker 1>see boxes of things and I often saw Chewy boxes

0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 1>on the curb. Yeah, and you know they're coming to

0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.600
<v Speaker 1>our house. To um. It's actually in one of our

0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:33.520
<v Speaker 1>story meetings that turns out that you know, there's a

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:35.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of co op apartments in New York City that

0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 1>aren't supposed to have pets, and Chewy Boxes are outing

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 1>them because it's like, oh, look delivery exactly. UM. So

0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.560
<v Speaker 1>the story of Chewi though, I think it's it's one

0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.400
<v Speaker 1>of these amazing ones because you know, the company has

0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:55.320
<v Speaker 1>been around for for nine years. UH started basically by

0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:58.280
<v Speaker 1>a couple of guys who just realized they were going

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 1>to get into the jewelry business and then realized, wait

0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 1>a second, there could be a bigger opportunity and pets,

0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:10.000
<v Speaker 1>and they basically scrapped it out for nine years and

0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:13.520
<v Speaker 1>in the process of that sort of faded from the

0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.600
<v Speaker 1>company and the company now has a has a new CEO.

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 1>And the story sort of starts with Andrews crunching some

0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 1>numbers and realizing that he's actually incredibly highly compensated. How

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:30.079
<v Speaker 1>how highly compensated is Andres about a hundred eight million team.

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 1>That's what brought me onto to this story. I am,

0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:37.760
<v Speaker 1>we ran our highest paid CEOs list this summer and

0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.360
<v Speaker 1>sume it's sing. Made a d eight million last year.

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.199
<v Speaker 1>And I turned to my editor and said, who in

0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:46.680
<v Speaker 1>the world assume it'sing? And it turns out to see

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:48.960
<v Speaker 1>the CEO of Chewy And that's yeah, that's where it

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.079
<v Speaker 1>all started, right, And it's kind of like, what is

0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>to I have to say. We have a market guest

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:54.720
<v Speaker 1>who comes on and every time she's like, by Chewy,

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.840
<v Speaker 1>by Chewy, by Chewi. I mean, this is a business,

0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:59.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, and you put it in the story and

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.920
<v Speaker 1>there's that it's very much kind of akin to Amazon

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:07.239
<v Speaker 1>in its early days. Yeah, it really is. It's it's

0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 1>what sets it apart from Amazon. Amazon was a model

0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:15.960
<v Speaker 1>for much of the the quickness, the ease, and the pricing,

0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.200
<v Speaker 1>but will really sets to a part is the fact

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 1>that you actually have a customer service number to call,

0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.120
<v Speaker 1>and if you call it, there's a person that responds

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 1>to you within six seconds and it's willing to talk

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.600
<v Speaker 1>to you four hours. If that's what you feel like

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>about your pet, about pet food, about the fact that

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.160
<v Speaker 1>you know anything, I've heard stories of customer service agains.

0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>You have literally been on the phone for several hours

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 1>with with pet owners that call in. One of the things, Carol,

0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:44.320
<v Speaker 1>that I think is really interesting about the businesses. You know,

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 1>Amazon when it started, it had that one area of

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.600
<v Speaker 1>expertise that it just nailed, which was books. It's like,

0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 1>how do we bring as many books as we possibly

0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.880
<v Speaker 1>can online and do um e commerce as a as

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 1>a bookstore right right? And I think we actually kind

0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 1>of like it's almost like they surveyed the landscape and said,

0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 1>what's the thing that we could have recurring payments with

0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 1>that Amazon hasn't thought to do yet, and how do

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.040
<v Speaker 1>we figure out what that is and then do it

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>at warp speed effectively? And they recognize that pets, So

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 1>this thing, it's the number in the story, nine billion

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:27.920
<v Speaker 1>dollars a year being spent by Americans on pets. If

0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>you could get one slice of that, it's a great business.

0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 1>And what they figured out was that there's a lot

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.280
<v Speaker 1>of things that you can do that are recurring payments,

0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 1>whether it's dog food deliveries or medications, and all of

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.800
<v Speaker 1>those things are just cruise controlled. That's a subscription revenue model,

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>and it has just allowed them to go sort of

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 1>warp speed. And they were on a pretty good trajectory

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.640
<v Speaker 1>before the pandemic, and then the pandemic really played to it.

0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 1>And so Andrews tell us about what they how how

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:59.320
<v Speaker 1>they've really capital capitalized on everything this year. Yeah, they've

0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 1>already in the first two quarters they added more customers

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 1>than in all of the prior fiscal years, and they're

0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:09.840
<v Speaker 1>on track to finally turned EBIT down positive this year.

0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>And they are also on track to hit roughly seven

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of revenue from if I don't misremember, around

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>four point nine. So it's it's really super charged them

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.240
<v Speaker 1>this year. And they were sort of kind of like Peloton,

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:28.479
<v Speaker 1>just perfectly in position to take advantage of the coronavirus.

0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 1>We've been buying our scout, she's a little Irish terrier man.

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 1>She's been getting toys, you know, and we we've got

0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:34.920
<v Speaker 1>a subscription thing that we do every month too, and

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>it's like, yep, we just we don't even think twice

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.320
<v Speaker 1>about it. We're like, it's essential. It's kind of crazy.

0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 1>So wait a minute, though, we said they were like

0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:44.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of Amazon right in many ways, and it sounds

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 1>like there are two also like Amazon for a long time.

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 1>They're not profitable, not yet. And you know, that's a

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:56.160
<v Speaker 1>story that is not too unfamiliar these days, that you

0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:00.520
<v Speaker 1>set assign profitability and instead focus on growing very quickly.

0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>And that's what they did, and founder Ryan Cohen and

0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:07.400
<v Speaker 1>his team they actually ripped the page out of Amazon's

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.159
<v Speaker 1>playbook and said, we're going to plow every dollar or

0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 1>free cash flow that we get into marketing and customer acquisition.

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.000
<v Speaker 1>And but he points out in the story that at

0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.960
<v Speaker 1>any point they could have turned off that marketings pigots,

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.359
<v Speaker 1>and the company would have been profitable even back in

0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:29.439
<v Speaker 1>So it's really about you know, running and getting scale

0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:32.040
<v Speaker 1>um as long as you can, as long as your

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:35.280
<v Speaker 1>careful ways allows you to do that. And that's what

0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:37.439
<v Speaker 1>they that's what they've done, and that's why they're so

0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.600
<v Speaker 1>big today. And and actually I love it because the

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:43.040
<v Speaker 1>CEO brought this up when when you guys kind of

0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:46.200
<v Speaker 1>put it to him, is this this fly wheel? Um,

0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:50.000
<v Speaker 1>this this idea that it's a vaunted when that Amazon's

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.120
<v Speaker 1>really excelled is sort of like, once you can start

0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:55.880
<v Speaker 1>spinning off cash, it feeds all the other aspirations that

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.919
<v Speaker 1>you that you have. What did he have to say

0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.160
<v Speaker 1>about his flywheel, Well, they essentially saying that it's I mean,

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.639
<v Speaker 1>it's a very surty model. As long as you have

0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:07.240
<v Speaker 1>as long as you're not burning too much cash, then

0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:09.960
<v Speaker 1>then that's something that you can keep up. And as

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:13.879
<v Speaker 1>long as you keep acquiring customers at a fast enough clip,

0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 1>then then that fly will keeps up. And thanks to shoot,

0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:21.720
<v Speaker 1>Chewi's focused on autoship and the fact that people have

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:23.760
<v Speaker 1>to return to them every once in a while to

0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 1>buy cat litter and food and and so on, and

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:31.640
<v Speaker 1>and you can put that on automation. Um, that really

0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:35.440
<v Speaker 1>helps to underwrite this whole model and it works anders

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.679
<v Speaker 1>really quickly. So Smit saying, the CEO of chewies up

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:42.120
<v Speaker 1>there with Elon Musk Apples, Tim Cook, some other well

0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:45.520
<v Speaker 1>known CEOs as among the highest paid. Does he deserve

0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 1>to be there considering what he's done at the company

0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:50.480
<v Speaker 1>and just got about thirty seconds. Well, I think if

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 1>you're if you bought you right after the I p oh,

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:55.840
<v Speaker 1>and you still hold it now, I'm sure you're very

0:18:55.840 --> 0:19:00.760
<v Speaker 1>happy regardless of how much he got paid. Um. We

0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 1>spoke to some former employees who pointed out that the

0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.600
<v Speaker 1>company with an excellent shape already when he took over.

0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Interesting kind of feel kind of feel bummed out for

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.040
<v Speaker 1>the two founders though. Man Um, it's a great, great read,

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:12.879
<v Speaker 1>And I told you you've got to check out the

0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:14.720
<v Speaker 1>cover because I think I'm gonna go home and frame

0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 1>it because it's just adorable. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:22.040
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:25.119
<v Speaker 1>this story definitely caught my attention. I was reading in

0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:28.440
<v Speaker 1>pretty early this morning on my way into one Lexington

0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:31.080
<v Speaker 1>here at Bloomberg headquarters. It's a top story in my

0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:33.720
<v Speaker 1>view at this hour, since as we watch closely COVID

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:37.000
<v Speaker 1>nineteens impact on our economy and its recovery, which has

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:39.199
<v Speaker 1>been so well described I think by Peter atwater over

0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:42.199
<v Speaker 1>at William Mary as the K shaped recovery, which illustrates

0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:45.160
<v Speaker 1>some Americans, they have been largely untouched by the pandemic.

0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:47.280
<v Speaker 1>For others, the lower leg of the k it has

0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:50.280
<v Speaker 1>been catastrophic. And maybe there's some folks in between that

0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:53.400
<v Speaker 1>as some of the relief efforts start to come undone

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:55.920
<v Speaker 1>and stop, they're going to be in a tough way.

0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:58.199
<v Speaker 1>This story is among the most read on the Bloomberg.

0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:00.600
<v Speaker 1>It is about the year end fis school clifs that

0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:03.359
<v Speaker 1>are approaching for millions of Americans. Let's get into a

0:20:03.400 --> 0:20:06.879
<v Speaker 1>three picker. She's US economy reporter at Bloomberg and she

0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.800
<v Speaker 1>is joining us on the phone in New York City. Read. Um,

0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:12.760
<v Speaker 1>this is an important story. I really do think everybody

0:20:12.760 --> 0:20:15.679
<v Speaker 1>has to stop listen because if we're worried about kind

0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:17.640
<v Speaker 1>of where we are because of COVID, if we're worried

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:19.600
<v Speaker 1>about what's going to happen in the economy, especially with

0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:22.600
<v Speaker 1>a lack of stimulus, you really lay it out what's

0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:26.520
<v Speaker 1>at risk. So first of all, give us the big picture. Yeah,

0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:28.399
<v Speaker 1>of course, and thank you for so much for having

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:30.439
<v Speaker 1>me on to talk about this story. Sure, um, so

0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:32.800
<v Speaker 1>I guess the big The big picture of this is

0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:36.560
<v Speaker 1>that there is a wide range of programs that are

0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:39.159
<v Speaker 1>scheduled to expire at the end of the year, and

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:45.800
<v Speaker 1>they range everything from UM to federal Unemployment Insurance Plan programs,

0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:50.240
<v Speaker 1>to a national addiction moratorium to a freeze on student loans.

0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:54.200
<v Speaker 1>And you know, as you were talking about this case

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:56.639
<v Speaker 1>shaped recovery, that the people that are really going to

0:20:56.800 --> 0:21:00.399
<v Speaker 1>feel the brunt of the pain from these acts rations

0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:03.960
<v Speaker 1>are really those who are currently still out of work.

0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:08.200
<v Speaker 1>And UM these programs, you know, they have a wide

0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:11.480
<v Speaker 1>range of youth, but I would say the biggest impact

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:14.800
<v Speaker 1>is definitely going to be from the expiration of those

0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:18.480
<v Speaker 1>two unemployment insurance programs. Twelve million people, you say, right,

0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:22.960
<v Speaker 1>we'd roughly twelve million, yes. So the Century Foundation UM

0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:25.159
<v Speaker 1>put out a report this morning where they estimated it

0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>would be about twelve million people that would be cut

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>off from their unemployment insurance on December twenty six. And

0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:37.120
<v Speaker 1>for these people, this has been an extraordinary lifeline during

0:21:37.119 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. And it's it's two parts. There's the folks

0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 1>that you know, prior to now wouldn't typically be eligible

0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:48.480
<v Speaker 1>for PEN for jobless benefits, and those are the people

0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:52.680
<v Speaker 1>who are on a program called Pandemic Unemployment Assistant PUA,

0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:56.440
<v Speaker 1>so that's your gig workers, your self employed workers. UM.

0:21:56.600 --> 0:22:00.199
<v Speaker 1>And and they have gotten these programs at these you know,

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 1>a check each week that has helped support them during

0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:05.639
<v Speaker 1>this this time where you know a lot of people

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:08.359
<v Speaker 1>aren't taking ubers and a lot of these jobs don't

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:11.760
<v Speaker 1>have the same kind of demand UM that they normally

0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:15.480
<v Speaker 1>would UM. And then the other program is very similar

0:22:15.520 --> 0:22:18.800
<v Speaker 1>to what we've seen in past recessions. UM. It's called

0:22:18.880 --> 0:22:21.880
<v Speaker 1>p e u C for short, but essentially it's an

0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:26.200
<v Speaker 1>extension of jobless benefits for those who have exhausted their

0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:29.200
<v Speaker 1>regular state benefits. So we saw this in the two

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.480
<v Speaker 1>thousand and seven to two thousand and nine recession as well. UM.

0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:36.159
<v Speaker 1>But whether people have used up the full number of

0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:40.800
<v Speaker 1>weeks that they have or not, unless Congress acts it's

0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:43.400
<v Speaker 1>it's set to expire at the end of December as well.

0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:45.040
<v Speaker 1>Read and I want to go to some of the

0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:48.560
<v Speaker 1>other UM. You know, specific programs that you say you

0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 1>know will come to an end and that really put

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:53.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of Americans at risk. But the one thing

0:22:53.359 --> 0:22:55.080
<v Speaker 1>I like about your story is, Yep, you go through

0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:57.200
<v Speaker 1>these you lay at the numbers, you lay at the research,

0:22:57.280 --> 0:23:01.119
<v Speaker 1>but you also talked to America and what it means. Like,

0:23:01.160 --> 0:23:05.320
<v Speaker 1>tell me about Larry Long of Willow Grow, Pennsylvania. Yeah,

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:07.399
<v Speaker 1>of course, And and I'd like to say that there

0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:10.399
<v Speaker 1>were more people that UM first space purposes me couldn't

0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:13.480
<v Speaker 1>fit them into the story, but Larry was someone that

0:23:13.520 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 1>really stuck out to me. UM. I I tried with him,

0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:19.920
<v Speaker 1>and he's one of UM. He's receiving the t U

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:23.359
<v Speaker 1>A that UM that unemployment assistance for for those aren't

0:23:23.640 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 1>who aren't typically eligible. But UM he is a sixty

0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:31.120
<v Speaker 1>three year old black man UM in a town that's

0:23:31.119 --> 0:23:35.399
<v Speaker 1>a little bit outside of Philadelphia. And before the pandemic

0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:39.760
<v Speaker 1>he made his income by basically hoping to plan charity

0:23:39.760 --> 0:23:44.639
<v Speaker 1>events and UM corporate parties. And as you can imagine,

0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:48.040
<v Speaker 1>as soon as pan as the pandemic hit, he said

0:23:48.080 --> 0:23:51.080
<v Speaker 1>that for a couple of weeks he was just receiving

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 1>cancelation email after cancelation email and UM, so since then

0:23:56.200 --> 0:24:00.800
<v Speaker 1>he has been getting these pandemic unemployment assistance payments. And

0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:05.240
<v Speaker 1>for the summer it worked out okay because UM the

0:24:05.359 --> 0:24:09.040
<v Speaker 1>Cares Act, which was the main fiscal relief bill that

0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 1>was passed back in March, UM provided this extra six

0:24:12.359 --> 0:24:15.840
<v Speaker 1>dollars a week and unemployment assistance, and when he had

0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.920
<v Speaker 1>that extra six hundred dollars, he was able to make

0:24:18.960 --> 0:24:22.000
<v Speaker 1>it work. Um. But as soon as those six hundred

0:24:22.040 --> 0:24:25.720
<v Speaker 1>dollar payments ended and expired at the end of July,

0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 1>the bills have just been piling up. Um. So when

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:33.439
<v Speaker 1>I was talking to him about what I mean, what

0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:36.000
<v Speaker 1>day to day looks like him for right now, he

0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:39.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, said that with the amount that he's getting,

0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:43.240
<v Speaker 1>he's really just trying to put food on the table. Um.

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:50.160
<v Speaker 1>And he's has negotiated with his his landlord to try

0:24:50.200 --> 0:24:54.200
<v Speaker 1>to make an agreement payment. But um, he's he's really

0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:59.080
<v Speaker 1>nervous about this, the culmination of running out of anyway,

0:24:59.240 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 1>but also of the eviction more national eviction moratorium expiring

0:25:04.119 --> 0:25:06.120
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the year as well. Right, you said,

0:25:06.119 --> 0:25:08.320
<v Speaker 1>he's he's worried about losing his home and he's also

0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:10.240
<v Speaker 1>worried he's you know, as you write in your story,

0:25:10.320 --> 0:25:13.240
<v Speaker 1>he's an older black man with a touch of diabetes.

0:25:13.280 --> 0:25:16.320
<v Speaker 1>So he's scared to death just about survival. Hey just

0:25:16.480 --> 0:25:18.760
<v Speaker 1>quickly just got about thirty or forty seconds here on

0:25:18.800 --> 0:25:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the tenant evictions. What do we need to know about that? Yes,

0:25:22.680 --> 0:25:26.159
<v Speaker 1>so on the evictions front UM. This is basically it

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:31.960
<v Speaker 1>has been a national um, a national policy to keep

0:25:32.000 --> 0:25:35.719
<v Speaker 1>people in their homes and prevent landlords from evicting their

0:25:35.760 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 1>tenants when they couldn't fully pay UM. And that has

0:25:38.320 --> 0:25:41.000
<v Speaker 1>been a saving grace for a lot of people. UM.

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:44.120
<v Speaker 1>But the problem now now, of course, is that eviction

0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 1>moratorium is UM set to expire at the end of

0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:50.400
<v Speaker 1>the year. So people are heading into January, perhaps with

0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:53.359
<v Speaker 1>several months behind of of not having fully paid their

0:25:53.400 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 1>rent or not have paid their rent at all UM

0:25:56.800 --> 0:26:01.000
<v Speaker 1>and could very much base eviction because the fact that yeah,

0:26:01.640 --> 0:26:05.000
<v Speaker 1>their bills to pay as well. Yeah. Yeah, We've talked

0:26:05.000 --> 0:26:06.640
<v Speaker 1>about that with a lot of folks in the real

0:26:06.720 --> 0:26:08.320
<v Speaker 1>estate industry. The problem is, you know, you know, I

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:10.640
<v Speaker 1>think about December thirty one, right, people are often like, oh,

0:26:10.680 --> 0:26:13.600
<v Speaker 1>a new year, you know, thinking about what's to come promising,

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:16.440
<v Speaker 1>and then for many that's a deadline that could be

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:19.199
<v Speaker 1>really really tough. UM. I'm gonna put your story out

0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:21.280
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter because you go into all the programs and

0:26:21.320 --> 0:26:24.040
<v Speaker 1>all the specifics. So thank you so much. Read really

0:26:24.040 --> 0:26:26.160
<v Speaker 1>appreciate you bringing it to us. Read pick it. She's

0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:29.199
<v Speaker 1>US Economy reporter Epploomberg News on the phone from New

0:26:29.280 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 1>York broad mac Journal. But you let me drive, no, no, no,

0:26:38.359 --> 0:26:51.480
<v Speaker 1>d please l I want to drive. Strive the questions,

0:26:55.840 --> 0:27:04.959
<v Speaker 1>yeahs the drive of the globes well dry us down radios.

0:27:05.280 --> 0:27:07.120
<v Speaker 1>It is time for the drive to the close back

0:27:07.119 --> 0:27:09.639
<v Speaker 1>with us as Craig Hodges, CEO and portfolio manager of

0:27:09.680 --> 0:27:12.760
<v Speaker 1>the Hodges Funds one point five billion dollars in assets

0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:15.199
<v Speaker 1>under management, based in Dallas, and joining us on the

0:27:15.240 --> 0:27:18.320
<v Speaker 1>phone from there on a day Wednesday where we've got

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:20.680
<v Speaker 1>stocks pretty much hovering out their loads of the sessions

0:27:20.680 --> 0:27:22.800
<v Speaker 1>who are down about, as Charlie mentioned, down about nine

0:27:22.800 --> 0:27:24.800
<v Speaker 1>tens of a percent on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

0:27:24.840 --> 0:27:28.960
<v Speaker 1>down two hundred seventy nine points, SMP five also down

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:31.920
<v Speaker 1>almost nine tenths of a percent at thirty five seventy eight,

0:27:32.160 --> 0:27:35.560
<v Speaker 1>and the NASAC just down about half percent, down sixty

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:38.520
<v Speaker 1>five points. So, Craig Hodges, nice to have you here.

0:27:38.560 --> 0:27:40.680
<v Speaker 1>How are you doing? I know there's been some rough

0:27:40.760 --> 0:27:43.320
<v Speaker 1>COVID numbers out in Dallas. I've got a bunch of

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:46.600
<v Speaker 1>family out in Texas. How are you doing? Yeah? Doing well.

0:27:46.760 --> 0:27:48.920
<v Speaker 1>We we know we've been pretty fortunate not to get

0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:52.159
<v Speaker 1>hit too hard, and I think I think it's you know,

0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:55.880
<v Speaker 1>fairly under control here. But but the numbers you see

0:27:55.960 --> 0:27:58.679
<v Speaker 1>do scare you. So you you have to continue to

0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:01.880
<v Speaker 1>take to take heed if you will, Yeah, exactly, Well

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:03.320
<v Speaker 1>how do you have to What does it mean for

0:28:03.359 --> 0:28:06.119
<v Speaker 1>investors or they have to take heed as well? You know,

0:28:06.160 --> 0:28:10.000
<v Speaker 1>I think that they do. Um, we've we've had an

0:28:10.200 --> 0:28:13.120
<v Speaker 1>interesting situation. You know, we manage money, and we had

0:28:13.160 --> 0:28:15.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of individual accounts, probably over six hundred and

0:28:15.760 --> 0:28:18.600
<v Speaker 1>I think throughout the industry what you saw around the

0:28:18.640 --> 0:28:22.120
<v Speaker 1>election time, starting at about uh September, as people raise

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:25.919
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good cash position in their accounts, not to

0:28:26.000 --> 0:28:28.919
<v Speaker 1>predict what would happen, but just because of the volatility

0:28:28.920 --> 0:28:32.639
<v Speaker 1>and the uncertainty. Other well, there wasn't hardly any volatility,

0:28:32.680 --> 0:28:34.840
<v Speaker 1>and the market has continued to move up. So I

0:28:34.880 --> 0:28:38.040
<v Speaker 1>believe what's happened since the election, even though it's even

0:28:38.080 --> 0:28:42.040
<v Speaker 1>though it's uh, you know, hasn't been finalized, although everyone

0:28:42.080 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 1>knows what will happen, um, is that people are putting

0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:47.200
<v Speaker 1>that money back to work. So I think that's what's

0:28:47.280 --> 0:28:50.800
<v Speaker 1>driven the market here in the last you know, month

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 1>or so. That being said, I think it's probably a

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:56.720
<v Speaker 1>little ahead of itself. Um. I did a I did

0:28:56.720 --> 0:28:59.920
<v Speaker 1>a conference call with a bunch of great money managers

0:29:00.040 --> 0:29:03.840
<v Speaker 1>last night, and the optimism was flowing. And anytime you

0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:07.200
<v Speaker 1>see that makes me want to run for the exactly exactly,

0:29:07.240 --> 0:29:09.720
<v Speaker 1>So I don't look for anything, you know, terrible, but

0:29:09.800 --> 0:29:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I think the market could be a little ahead of itself.

0:29:12.320 --> 0:29:15.000
<v Speaker 1>Why are money managers so enthusiastic? What were they saying

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:18.080
<v Speaker 1>on that call? Well, there's been so much disruption in

0:29:18.120 --> 0:29:20.840
<v Speaker 1>there in the marketplace, and there's been the stocks that

0:29:20.880 --> 0:29:23.440
<v Speaker 1>have done fantastic this last year and a half, and

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:26.240
<v Speaker 1>there's been stocks that have done horribly, and you're starting

0:29:26.280 --> 0:29:29.640
<v Speaker 1>to see the wall. Yeah, and and the and the

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.880
<v Speaker 1>ones that have lagged that still have good, good business

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:36.360
<v Speaker 1>opportunities are really starting to perform. So I think, and

0:29:36.120 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 1>and and that's what a lot of these people, and

0:29:37.840 --> 0:29:40.160
<v Speaker 1>not everyone is in the you know, the fang and

0:29:40.240 --> 0:29:43.880
<v Speaker 1>the top you know six stocks that have driven everything. Um,

0:29:43.920 --> 0:29:45.840
<v Speaker 1>there's another market out there that's kind of been the

0:29:45.880 --> 0:29:48.440
<v Speaker 1>have knots if you will, and so um, and that's

0:29:48.480 --> 0:29:50.800
<v Speaker 1>what that's what we're doing here at Hodes Funds and

0:29:50.800 --> 0:29:53.840
<v Speaker 1>Hodges Capital because there's a just a bevy of stocks

0:29:53.840 --> 0:29:57.160
<v Speaker 1>that have not participated that you're starting to see all

0:29:57.200 --> 0:30:00.000
<v Speaker 1>of a sudden get some breath and start to move.

0:30:00.280 --> 0:30:02.280
<v Speaker 1>How frustrated though, are you guys to be in the

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:04.360
<v Speaker 1>small cap space and I know they're starting to have

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:05.959
<v Speaker 1>their day a little bit, but I'm looking at your

0:30:06.000 --> 0:30:07.800
<v Speaker 1>Hodges small cap. Fine, you're up about three and a

0:30:07.840 --> 0:30:11.440
<v Speaker 1>half percent. Uh, it's been a struggle. It has been

0:30:11.480 --> 0:30:14.960
<v Speaker 1>a struggle for you know, going on three years. And

0:30:15.360 --> 0:30:18.960
<v Speaker 1>although I will say this, um I noticed that the

0:30:19.040 --> 0:30:23.680
<v Speaker 1>small cap performance the Russell two thousand, one of their

0:30:23.960 --> 0:30:26.560
<v Speaker 1>of the stocks in the Russell two thousand are above

0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:29.240
<v Speaker 1>their two day moving average on the chart and being

0:30:29.360 --> 0:30:32.520
<v Speaker 1>very technically you know, a positive. That's the most since

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:36.480
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and thirteen. So it really looks like things

0:30:36.560 --> 0:30:39.040
<v Speaker 1>are starting to turn. And you know, these things go

0:30:39.120 --> 0:30:42.040
<v Speaker 1>in cycles, and it's very it's very understandable why the

0:30:42.120 --> 0:30:44.840
<v Speaker 1>large cap you know, stocks have moved so well. It's

0:30:44.840 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 1>been basically the E T F craze that's driven a

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:49.080
<v Speaker 1>lot of that. But there will be a time and

0:30:49.160 --> 0:30:52.240
<v Speaker 1>place for small caps and we really and and they've

0:30:52.280 --> 0:30:54.480
<v Speaker 1>had really nice help performance for i'd say about the

0:30:54.960 --> 0:30:58.040
<v Speaker 1>past two months or so. All right, interesting, um, so

0:30:58.120 --> 0:30:59.600
<v Speaker 1>talk to us about some of the names, because my

0:30:59.680 --> 0:31:02.239
<v Speaker 1>underest in is among the major themes that you are

0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:05.960
<v Speaker 1>interested in. It's kind of de urbanization and business is

0:31:06.000 --> 0:31:08.239
<v Speaker 1>related to that. What specifically are you talking about. You're

0:31:08.240 --> 0:31:11.360
<v Speaker 1>talking about the exodus from from cities. Yeah, you're seeing

0:31:11.400 --> 0:31:15.400
<v Speaker 1>because you believe that's really gonna stick. Oh my gosh, Well,

0:31:15.440 --> 0:31:18.240
<v Speaker 1>you saw this in the seventies happen and it lasted

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:21.040
<v Speaker 1>for for you know, anywhere from five day years depending

0:31:21.040 --> 0:31:22.880
<v Speaker 1>on the dad. But it was miserable in the cities.

0:31:22.920 --> 0:31:25.920
<v Speaker 1>There was economic there was crises, and so and so forth.

0:31:26.000 --> 0:31:29.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, well, there's it's not just the the unrest

0:31:29.360 --> 0:31:32.840
<v Speaker 1>and the COVID that's driving people out. It's the fact

0:31:32.920 --> 0:31:35.160
<v Speaker 1>that all of a sudden, you don't have to have

0:31:35.440 --> 0:31:37.120
<v Speaker 1>an hour and a half commute to get to work.

0:31:37.160 --> 0:31:38.920
<v Speaker 1>You can work from home, or you can you can

0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:42.000
<v Speaker 1>live two states away and live wherever you want and

0:31:42.080 --> 0:31:45.320
<v Speaker 1>still work at whatever firm. I've seen where thirty percent

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 1>of the companies out there are saying they'll never bring

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:50.480
<v Speaker 1>these people back into the office, they'll let them work remotely.

0:31:50.640 --> 0:31:53.640
<v Speaker 1>So that's going to drive people to the suburbs. And

0:31:53.960 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 1>you add on the fact that you have historically low

0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:59.360
<v Speaker 1>interest rates. The millennials, which is the biggest demographic in

0:31:59.400 --> 0:32:02.360
<v Speaker 1>the history of the world. You know, there's there now

0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:04.640
<v Speaker 1>at that age they're they're you know now at that

0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:07.880
<v Speaker 1>age where they're moving out, they're getting married, they're buying homes.

0:32:07.880 --> 0:32:11.400
<v Speaker 1>And it's also economic and that it's better, it's much

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:14.920
<v Speaker 1>much better financially to own than to rent, especially with

0:32:14.960 --> 0:32:17.640
<v Speaker 1>these low rates. And then we've got this shortage of housing.

0:32:17.720 --> 0:32:20.120
<v Speaker 1>So it's not just the housing stocks that we like,

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:23.880
<v Speaker 1>it's everything related to those. And you're talking about your

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:27.280
<v Speaker 1>retailers like home Depot and Lows and and you know

0:32:27.360 --> 0:32:31.080
<v Speaker 1>companies that that do lawn and guarding and remodeling and

0:32:31.400 --> 0:32:33.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, things like that. Even like the home gym

0:32:33.720 --> 0:32:36.720
<v Speaker 1>business is a phenomenal thing that's happened. Pet pets and

0:32:36.760 --> 0:32:40.160
<v Speaker 1>pets supplies and and all these things. The mattress business

0:32:40.280 --> 0:32:43.840
<v Speaker 1>is really booming right now. Um. And so there's many

0:32:43.840 --> 0:32:45.600
<v Speaker 1>ways to play this thing. And like I said, I

0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:48.400
<v Speaker 1>think this, I think this will last for years and

0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:50.719
<v Speaker 1>not just not just be a you know, a flash

0:32:50.720 --> 0:32:52.400
<v Speaker 1>in the pand if you will, all right, so if

0:32:52.440 --> 0:32:54.160
<v Speaker 1>you had to commit new money. One of the new

0:32:54.240 --> 0:32:56.120
<v Speaker 1>names or one of the names you like is Taylor Morrison.

0:32:56.120 --> 0:32:59.400
<v Speaker 1>You would be committing to money there, Yes, we would.

0:32:59.400 --> 0:33:03.280
<v Speaker 1>They're in great markets. Um. They it's one of the

0:33:03.360 --> 0:33:06.600
<v Speaker 1>least expensive trading a right around book value. And you've

0:33:06.640 --> 0:33:09.120
<v Speaker 1>seen most of these homeowners have made tremendous moves, and

0:33:09.160 --> 0:33:11.760
<v Speaker 1>it's made a good move. It's so far this year

0:33:11.800 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 1>we've seen. You're right, the homebuilders have really been on

0:33:13.960 --> 0:33:16.120
<v Speaker 1>a rise. Low mortgage rate and as you said, some

0:33:16.160 --> 0:33:19.040
<v Speaker 1>of the trends of people uh moving out, and also

0:33:19.200 --> 0:33:23.120
<v Speaker 1>the supply has been down. Yeah, and and historically these

0:33:23.120 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 1>things are feast or famine, But like I said, I

0:33:25.360 --> 0:33:28.640
<v Speaker 1>think there's because of the shortage and because of about

0:33:28.680 --> 0:33:31.840
<v Speaker 1>three months supply of housing. I think this is a

0:33:31.840 --> 0:33:34.880
<v Speaker 1>trend that's gonna last for for a considerable time. So,

0:33:36.080 --> 0:33:38.840
<v Speaker 1>and they're still very inexpensive. These stocks are some of

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:42.320
<v Speaker 1>the most inexpensive the entire market. Yeah. Teller Morrison's got

0:33:42.320 --> 0:33:45.000
<v Speaker 1>a forward looking peve about not quite eleven, just under

0:33:45.040 --> 0:33:48.560
<v Speaker 1>it in a current peve about six point six um interesting, interesting,

0:33:48.600 --> 0:33:52.640
<v Speaker 1>just quickly thirty seconds. Rocket Mortgage, same story. Yeah, we

0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:57.400
<v Speaker 1>believe Rocket will will be the dominant you know brand

0:33:57.480 --> 0:34:01.480
<v Speaker 1>in mortgage and refinancing, and they have laevable scale opportunities

0:34:01.480 --> 0:34:04.000
<v Speaker 1>in that company. And um, you know they're not just

0:34:04.080 --> 0:34:07.680
<v Speaker 1>a refinance firm. They're actually because of young people being

0:34:07.680 --> 0:34:10.560
<v Speaker 1>more comfortable with different thing on their phones, there's more

0:34:10.560 --> 0:34:13.040
<v Speaker 1>and more people going this route they think they're Their

0:34:13.080 --> 0:34:15.000
<v Speaker 1>market share will go from ten where it is now

0:34:16.360 --> 0:34:19.719
<v Speaker 1>by two thousand thirty, and that will be a juggernaut

0:34:19.719 --> 0:34:22.440
<v Speaker 1>of a company. Forty two billion dollar market cap company.

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:25.200
<v Speaker 1>That's pretty remarkable. I'm gonna leave it there. UM, really

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:28.680
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it. Craig Hodges, CEO, portfolio manager of the Hodges Phones,

0:34:28.760 --> 0:34:30.960
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Dallas. Thanks so much for listening

0:34:30.960 --> 0:34:34.520
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:36.719
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0:34:36.719 --> 0:34:39.040
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0:34:39.120 --> 0:34:41.600
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0:34:41.680 --> 0:34:44.080
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