WEBVTT - Equity Optimism on Shutdown Talks; US Tightens Russia Sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Stephen Carroll and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 3>stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, The rise in futures comes in part on signs

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<v Speaker 2>the US will avoid a government shutdown. That's because Senate

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is opted not to block a

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<v Speaker 2>Republican spending bill. The decision was made despite a growing

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<v Speaker 2>number of Democrats wanting to use their limited leverage to

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<v Speaker 2>restrain Elon Musk's cost cutting efforts. Addressing the Senate, Schumer

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<v Speaker 2>explained why he decided to walk back the threat of

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<v Speaker 2>a shutdown.

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<v Speaker 4>A shutdown would give Donald Trump an Elon Musk carte

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<v Speaker 4>blanche to destroy vital government services at a significantly faster

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<v Speaker 4>rate than they can right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Republicans likely need seven other Democrats to join Schumer, who

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't say if there were now enough votes within his

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<v Speaker 2>party to overcome a fellibuster.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Stephen. The lift of the markets this morning comes

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<v Speaker 3>after the S and P five hundred slipped into correction territory.

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<v Speaker 3>The index is down ten percent from its all time high.

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<v Speaker 3>The tech heavy Nasdaq one hundred index is also in

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<v Speaker 3>a correction and the Dow Jones Industrial average is nine

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<v Speaker 3>point three percent below its last record in December. Lauren Goodwin,

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<v Speaker 3>the chief market strategist at New York Life, says tariff

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<v Speaker 3>worries are rattling Wall Street, but there is no.

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<v Speaker 5>Doubt that the volatility that we've seen in the market

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<v Speaker 5>over the last couple of weeks is about policy uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 5>It's not about economic fundamentals. And what's so interesting about

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<v Speaker 5>that is typically when we see drawdowns of this size,

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<v Speaker 5>it's the other way around. There's a concern implicit in

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<v Speaker 5>the economy about growth or employment, et cetera. This time

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<v Speaker 5>it's uncertainty causing the concerns about growth and employment.

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<v Speaker 3>New York Lives Lauren Goodwin believes markets will remain volatile

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<v Speaker 3>until some of the policy uncertainty clears.

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<v Speaker 2>Investors are the most bullish on tree treasuries relative to

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<v Speaker 2>stocks for at least three years. That's the findings of

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<v Speaker 2>the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. US bonds are

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<v Speaker 2>expected to deliver a better volatility adjusted return over the

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<v Speaker 2>next month than equities, according to a survey of more

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<v Speaker 2>than five hundred market participants conducted this week, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>not even close, with seventy seven percent backing treasuries. That's

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<v Speaker 2>the highest level ever in the survey data going back

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<v Speaker 2>to twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 3>Well Steven. Former Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchen advised investors not

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<v Speaker 3>to overreact to the current sell off inequities and discounts

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<v Speaker 3>risks of a US recession. In an interview with Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 3>Manuchin attributes the market correction to a natural correction in

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<v Speaker 3>the market fueled by massive tech spending.

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<v Speaker 6>We came in with the market being fully priced, so

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<v Speaker 6>I think a five to ten percent correction on the

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<v Speaker 6>s and per the NESTAC actually makes sense. The market's

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<v Speaker 6>been really fueled by massive amounts of tech spending, particularly

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<v Speaker 6>around AI. So some of this is a natural correction

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<v Speaker 6>in the market, and some of this is the market

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<v Speaker 6>worrying about tariffs and the impact on tariffs.

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<v Speaker 3>Former Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchin also discounted risks of a

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<v Speaker 3>US recession. To hear the full conversation, get the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 3>Talks podcast or watch it live on the Bloomberg podcast

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<v Speaker 3>page on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen as for the global trade war. President Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>threatening a two hundred percent tariff on European wine, champagne,

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<v Speaker 2>and other alcoholic beverages. Trump says he'll impose the tariffs

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<v Speaker 2>if the European Union does not immediately remove its countermeasures

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<v Speaker 2>against his twenty five percent tariffs on steel and aluminum.

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<v Speaker 2>In an interview heard right here on Bloomberg Radio, Commerce

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary Harold Lutnik says the EU duties are disrespectful.

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<v Speaker 7>The President has made it crystal clear that he finds

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<v Speaker 7>this tit for tat really abusive and aggravating. Right, his

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<v Speaker 7>objective is steel and aluminum tariffs. Let him build his

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<v Speaker 7>steel and aluminum business in America, because that's import.

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<v Speaker 2>Commerce Secretary Harold Lutnik added he's thankful the UK and

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<v Speaker 2>Mexico refrained from engaging in tit for tat tariff hikes

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<v Speaker 2>and weren't trading partners that upset President Donald Trump opened

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<v Speaker 2>themselves to severe reaction.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Stephen, the president of the European Central Bank, is

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<v Speaker 3>warning of severe global fallout from a trade war with

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<v Speaker 3>the US. Here's what Christine Laguard told the BBC.

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<v Speaker 8>If we were to go to a real trade war

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<v Speaker 8>where trade would be dumpened significantly, that would have severe consequences.

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<v Speaker 8>It would not be calls for concern. It would be

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<v Speaker 8>severe consequences as growth around the world and for prices

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<v Speaker 8>around the world, but particularly in the United States, but.

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<v Speaker 9>Also in Europe.

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<v Speaker 10>It would push Europe into recession.

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<v Speaker 9>Wouldn't they.

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<v Speaker 8>You know what it's doing at the moment, stirring European energy.

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<v Speaker 8>It's a big wake up call for Europe. Maybe this

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<v Speaker 8>is a European moment yet again.

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<v Speaker 3>And the Guard also told the BBC that Brussels had

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<v Speaker 3>no choice but to retaliate against the following its decision

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<v Speaker 3>to implement twenty five percent tariffs on global steel and

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<v Speaker 3>aluminium imports.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Karen, if investors think the FAD will step in

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<v Speaker 2>if tariff's damage the economy, they may be wrong. That's

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<v Speaker 2>according to former New York Fed President William Dudley.

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<v Speaker 11>I think the problem is that clares are bad for

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<v Speaker 11>growth and bed for inflation, which puts the FED in

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<v Speaker 11>a buying Basically, they're missing by more on both sides

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<v Speaker 11>of their mandate. So I think in the near term

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<v Speaker 11>the Feds could basically be on hold waiting for more information.

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<v Speaker 2>Well Dudley, now Bloomberg opinion columnist, says the FED could

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<v Speaker 2>be in a bind if tariffs lead to slower growth

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<v Speaker 2>and higher inflation expectations. Read more in his latest column

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<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg dot com slash opinion or opi and go

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<v Speaker 2>on the Bloomberg terminal.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, now, Stephen, we have the latest on the war

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<v Speaker 3>in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin says he wants to

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<v Speaker 3>discuss a proposed ceasefire in Ukraine with President Trump. However,

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<v Speaker 3>Putin said any truce should lead to a long term

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<v Speaker 3>resolution of the war. Trump says he hopes that Russia

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<v Speaker 3>agrees to the ceasefire deal.

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<v Speaker 12>We're talking about humanity, We're not talking about the money.

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<v Speaker 12>But then you add the money to it, and you know,

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<v Speaker 12>hundreds of billions of dollars is being spent and really wasted,

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<v Speaker 12>so unnecessarily it should have never happened.

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<v Speaker 3>Meanwhile, the US is titaned sanctions on Russia by restricting

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<v Speaker 3>payments for energy, even as it pursues peace negotiations with Putin.

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<v Speaker 3>Time now for a look at some of the other

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<v Speaker 3>stories making news in New York and around the world.

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<v Speaker 3>For that were joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr or Michael

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<v Speaker 3>good morning.

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<v Speaker 10>Good morning. Karen, an American Airlines passenger Jed diverted to

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<v Speaker 10>Denver after reporting engine vibrations last evening. The plane landed safely,

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<v Speaker 10>but while taxing to the gate, an engine caught fire.

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<v Speaker 10>Passengers were evacuated using the aircraft's slides, including this woman.

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<v Speaker 11>It was just a bunch of panicky people around me,

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<v Speaker 11>and the gentleman right next to me was a fireman,

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<v Speaker 11>so he was trying to calm everybody down.

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<v Speaker 10>The FAA says an investigation is under. Columbia University says

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<v Speaker 10>it has expelled or suspended some students who took over

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<v Speaker 10>a campus building during pro Palestinian protests last spring, and

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<v Speaker 10>temporarily revoked the diploma diplomas of some students who have

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<v Speaker 10>since graduated. The university said in a campus wide email

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<v Speaker 10>that its judicial board brought a range of sanctions against

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<v Speaker 10>dozens of students who occupied Hamilton Hall based on its

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<v Speaker 10>evac evaluation of the severity of behaviors. Meanwhile, New York

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<v Speaker 10>City police arrested almost one hundred protesters after demonstrators from

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<v Speaker 10>a Jewish group filled the lobby of Trump Tower on

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<v Speaker 10>Fifth Avenue in Manhattan. They are protesting the ice arrest

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<v Speaker 10>of Columbia grad student Makmud Khalil. He organized a pro

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<v Speaker 10>Palestinian demonstration against Israel at Columbia last year. The demonstrators

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<v Speaker 10>from Jewish Voice for Peace or Red Shirts reading Jews

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<v Speaker 10>say stop arming Israel. In YPD Chief John Shell.

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<v Speaker 13>In two hours, what our secret service pond is in?

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<v Speaker 13>Trump Security had this situation cleared up.

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<v Speaker 14>With no issues.

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<v Speaker 10>Audio courtesy of News for There were tense exchanges when

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<v Speaker 10>Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards return to his North Carolina district

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<v Speaker 10>for a town hall with constituents. Many presidents say they

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<v Speaker 10>are not happy with Republicans and President Trump with how

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<v Speaker 10>they are running the country. We've got a lot to

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<v Speaker 10>be proud of in this country.

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<v Speaker 14>I happen to agree with a lot of the things

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<v Speaker 14>that's going.

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<v Speaker 9>On in Washington, DC right now.

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<v Speaker 10>I know many of you are not. Congressman Edwards face

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<v Speaker 10>questions from people including possible cuts to Social Security, federal layoffs,

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<v Speaker 10>and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency. Global News twenty

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<v Speaker 10>four hours a day and whenever you want it with

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<v Speaker 10>Bloomberg News Now now, Michael Barn, this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>Karen, all right, Michael Barn, thank you. That is time

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<v Speaker 3>down for the Bloombergy Sports update brought to you by

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<v Speaker 3>Try a State Outie. Here's John stash Hower Good Friday Morning.

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<v Speaker 13>John, Good Morning, Karen March. Madness on display at several

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<v Speaker 13>conference tournaments. At the ACC, Louisville avoided an upset by

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<v Speaker 13>scoring at the buzzer to beat Stanford by two. At

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<v Speaker 13>the SEC, Kentucky scored with a half second on the

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<v Speaker 13>clock for a one point win over Oklahoma that came

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<v Speaker 13>after Texas's double overtime upset of Texas A and M.

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<v Speaker 13>There was double overtime at the Big East. Creighton trailed

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<v Speaker 13>most of the night at one point by seventeen, but

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<v Speaker 13>got by DePaul Saint John's began the day easy, went

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<v Speaker 13>over Butler seventy eight to fifty seven Red Store and

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<v Speaker 13>bring their twenty eight and four record nineteen to zero

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<v Speaker 13>at home to a semifinal game tonight at the Garden

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<v Speaker 13>against Marquette. Six days ago in Milwaukee, the Johnny's one

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<v Speaker 13>on a basket at the buzzer of overtime. Speaking of

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<v Speaker 13>ot that's where the Rangers were in Minnesota.

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<v Speaker 9>Jack Jones boots upon shop, sit back, Tanaron picks it up.

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<v Speaker 9>Baneran leaves at per Miller back to Paneron Indeed drop

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<v Speaker 9>to back, Snider pick Saboon.

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<v Speaker 13>Back, Henry's car on MSJ Brayden Schneider wins at three

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<v Speaker 13>to two after earlier goals by Vincent Trocheck and Johnny

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<v Speaker 13>Brazinski and the Rangers and their four game losing streak.

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<v Speaker 13>They also got good news when Columbus lost, The Rangers

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<v Speaker 13>and Blue Jackets tied for the last playoff spot on

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<v Speaker 13>the east of the Rangers, who played one more game.

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<v Speaker 13>Devils beat Edmonton three to two. Bruins lost in Ottawa

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<v Speaker 13>six to three. The Nets lost in Chicago won sixteen

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<v Speaker 13>to one, ten three way time the lead. After the

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<v Speaker 13>opening round of the Players Championship. Americans Lucas Glover and

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<v Speaker 13>JJ Spahn both shot six understor did Camillo Viegas. Rory

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<v Speaker 13>mcklroy shot four under Scotty Scheffer's minus three. The Tampa

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<v Speaker 13>Bay Rays, who have long sought a new stadium, finally

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<v Speaker 13>had plans to build one for one point three billion,

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<v Speaker 13>but then came Hurricane Milton. It damaged the current home

0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:53.000
<v Speaker 13>Trafficcanna Field. It's the reason Ray's owner Stu Sternberg says

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<v Speaker 13>they couldn't come up with a seven hundred million dollar

0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.200
<v Speaker 13>payment that was due. The Rays have now scrapped plans

0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:02.439
<v Speaker 13>for the new stadium. Stashowards Bloomberg Sports Card and Stephen.

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<v Speaker 1>Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius Exam

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Five twelve on Wall Street. Those features pointing higher as

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<v Speaker 2>Senate Democrats have pulled back on their threat of a

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<v Speaker 2>government shutdown, Chuck Schumer ultimately choosing not to block the

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<v Speaker 2>Republican written stop gap funding Baill. Let's discuss now at

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<v Speaker 2>Terry Haynes, founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry, great to talk

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<v Speaker 2>to you. Do you see the risk of a shutdown

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<v Speaker 2>completely gone?

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<v Speaker 14>Now, Stephen, good morning, and no, not completely. I'll get

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<v Speaker 14>they'll usually give you five percent for lightning striking, and

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<v Speaker 14>you know, and there's also there's always a possibility that

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<v Speaker 14>enough Democrats vote here to block temporarily. But you know,

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<v Speaker 14>Schumer's abdication on this is a very positive sign and

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<v Speaker 14>kudos to him. By the way, if you've got a

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<v Speaker 14>bit at hand, the best thing to do is fold,

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<v Speaker 14>and he certainly did.

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<v Speaker 2>But look, is there a question of leverage being lost here?

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<v Speaker 2>That was part of the reasoning that some Democrats did

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<v Speaker 2>want to get involved in blocking this, is there is

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<v Speaker 2>there something the Democrats have lost and making this call.

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<v Speaker 14>You know a lot of the Democratic interest groups will

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<v Speaker 14>say that they've lost things, but I'm not so sure

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<v Speaker 14>about that. You know, you can't win and revive your

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<v Speaker 14>party without without a strong message and without unity, and

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<v Speaker 14>right now the Democrats don't have either. So much smarter

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<v Speaker 14>political play for the Democratic leader to live to fight

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<v Speaker 14>another day here, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think does this project the image of unity that Chuck

0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:44.680
<v Speaker 2>Schumer wanted though, if there's going to be those on

0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 2>the sidelines that we're going to complain about this decision?

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:54.120
<v Speaker 14>No, well, it doesn't really project a unity message at all.

0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.240
<v Speaker 14>It projects quite the opposite that there that they're split

0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:59.760
<v Speaker 14>on it. You have just kind of the thin end

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.480
<v Speaker 14>of the wedge. Here is Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania who

0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 14>already was going to vote with with the with the

0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:09.520
<v Speaker 14>Republicans on this, and there's you know, easily half the

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:13.880
<v Speaker 14>caucus who thought that there were it was it was

0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 14>better to continue to be on the side of keeping

0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.440
<v Speaker 14>the government open even with the results that they didn't

0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:20.160
<v Speaker 14>particularly like.

0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:22.839
<v Speaker 2>So this needs giving futures a bit of optimism. I

0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 2>had to today's trading session, but of course the trade

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:30.079
<v Speaker 2>tension still playing in the background as well. What's your

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:32.959
<v Speaker 2>view on the question of escalation from here? It seems

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 2>to be all going in one direction in what sense?

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:39.360
<v Speaker 2>Well that we're talking about Trump adding, you know, threatening

0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:43.360
<v Speaker 2>two hundred percent tariffs on European wine and champagne. You

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.040
<v Speaker 2>know is are we going to see further fight back

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 2>from the EU on this?

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.080
<v Speaker 14>Well, I think you're going to see continued tit for tat. Sure,

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.280
<v Speaker 14>there's two kinds of tariffs here. One is the but

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.720
<v Speaker 14>I will think I was the geopolitical tariffs Canada and

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 14>Mexico negotiations underway for for better border security and drugs,

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.280
<v Speaker 14>that sort of thing. The other is the tit for

0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:07.560
<v Speaker 14>tet reciprocals that are probably coming in April. But you know,

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 14>the ultimate goal here, and I know markets aren't convinced

0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 14>by this, but the ultimate goal here both Bessant and

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.840
<v Speaker 14>Lutnik talked about this yesterday, are frankly to have tariffs

0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 14>go away. The idea is to remove tariff barriers, and

0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:23.560
<v Speaker 14>you know, of course that benefits the United States probably

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 14>more than it benefits of other countries. But that's where

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 14>the administration is going and that's what they seek to do.

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:32.760
<v Speaker 2>Are the winners being created from this as well? I

0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 2>mean kaya Kalas, the East top diplomat, telling Bloomberg that

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:39.480
<v Speaker 2>China's laughing at these escalations of tensions between the US

0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:40.040
<v Speaker 2>and the EU.

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 14>I'm always interested, you know, and I have great respect

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 14>for miscalous and at the same time and know very

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:52.880
<v Speaker 14>well the you know that she's looking right into the

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.880
<v Speaker 14>teeth as a bear, so to speak, in Estonia. And

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 14>at the same time, I think there probably needs to

0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 14>be more of an acknowledgment from the European Union about

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 14>the geopolitical strategy that's implicit in the economic strategy. The

0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.520
<v Speaker 14>big reason why Trump is going after this with such

0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 14>alacrity really is that he's trying to turbo charge of

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 14>the United States economy, frankly, to build geopolitically the strongest

0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:24.240
<v Speaker 14>economy and frankly phil holes in the United States ability

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 14>to defend itself manufacturing and other things, they.

0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:31.040
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