1 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Brexit. If they vote to exit, 2 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: would definitely be a vote against free trade, a vote 3 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: against globalization effects. Could be operating on a hope and prayer, 4 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: which they've been doing for the better part of the 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: past six years. There were always just one quarter away 6 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: from escapablocity. But the markets are sending a different signal. 7 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: The relationship interest rates and goals can be quite ambiguous, 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: and in the past, the time of that interest rate hikes, 9 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: gold has done quite well. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to 10 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: the world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. 11 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:38,959 Speaker 1: Good morning. It is seven am on Wall Street, one 12 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: pm in Vienna, the center of the financial world today, 13 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: at least for a while. This morning, OPEC ministers are meeting. 14 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: Some talk of a production deal being rooted about. Nobody 15 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: thinks it will really happen. Oil prices little changed on 16 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: the day, and the ECB Governing Council meets in the 17 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: Austrian capital, their latest policy decision due in forty five minutes, 18 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: yes indeed, and then Mario Draggy speaks after that. Little 19 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: change forecast from the ECB either perhaps the news of 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: the morning for investors comes about twenty minutes from now. 21 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 1: FED Governor Daniel Tarulo will be interviewed live here on Blue. 22 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: I will remember Ed Sullivan right here on our stage 23 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: by our David Weston. He's in the silent center. The 24 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,559 Speaker 1: board members who almost always vote with Chair Janet Yellen. 25 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: How does he feel about a June or July rate move? 26 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: If you're on a trading desk, you cannot miss that 27 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: plus a DP always tradeable out at eight fifteen? How 28 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: much will the Verizon strike screw up that number? So 29 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 1: much going on? Let me just do a quick day 30 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: to check tom and get everybody set up before the day. 31 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: The stock six in Europe down for much of the day, 32 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 1: now up a point two tenths of a percent. In 33 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: the US, futures were much lower. They have as in 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: the vernacular, paired their losses. SMP futures down a point 35 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: less than a tenth of a percent down, futures down 36 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: eight points. In Nasdaq futures are down to points right now. 37 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: The bond market yields are higher than they were yesterday 38 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: at this time, still not where they were last Friday. 39 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: The two year ye old eighty nine basis points, the 40 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: five year one point three eight percent to ten year 41 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: one point eight three. Everybody watching the dollar and we'll 42 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: get to that in just a second. The d X 43 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: Y index at three oh two is lower by two 44 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: tenths this morning. The yen is lower this morning, one 45 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: o eight ninety six. The euro is a little bit 46 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: stronger one. It was up to one twenty at one point. 47 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: And of course everybody's watching the Brexit meter. The British 48 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: pound cable on thirty two up by eight tenth this morning. 49 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: Oh and I mentioned oil prices. I should give those 50 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 1: to you both over forty nine forty nine oh to 51 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: a penny increase for West Texas Brent crew seventy seven 52 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: up eight nickel. Uh this morning, tom So, an awful 53 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: lot going on. The one other the one thing I 54 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: think we can predict all those numbers are going to 55 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: change by the end of surveillance. Yeah, well, we've been 56 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 1: range bound future negative one day, future negative six. I'd 57 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: noticed we're gonna talk about yen eroshop jelenors in a 58 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: moment one nineties seven stronger again decisively. Uh this morning. 59 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: I want to get back to the ECB in two seconds. 60 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: Though Bloomberg surveillance is always on this most busy day 61 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 1: brought you by Investco, if you considered all of your 62 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: investment alternatives, non traditional asset classes and strategies may help 63 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: you achieve your goals. Find out more and investco dot 64 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: com slash alternatives. I have like eight people Michael McKee 65 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: tell me the Draggy press conference doesn't matter. I just 66 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: don't buy that it matters. In one sense, people want 67 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: to know what their forecast is for growth and inflation, 68 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: whether it's changed, because that gives you a clue to 69 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: what they might do in the future. And then those 70 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: on trading guests, I want to know the details to 71 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: the extent they don't have, of corporate bond purchases, of 72 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: companies issuing corporate bonds in the hope that demand will 73 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: be high, and then make shout up Gentlin us with 74 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: us with credit suits. One of the great themes of 75 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 1: your James Sweeney is deflations overweight over not overrated, but 76 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: maybe overweighted or misweighted. Is deflation worries and disinflation misweighted 77 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: in Europe As we wait for drag You to speak, well, 78 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: it's it's a complicated issue. Obviously. Is oil prices go up? 79 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: You would think that that will take up the overall 80 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: headline inflation number. On the other hand, one interesting feature 81 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: of inflation in Europe has been how weak services inflation 82 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 1: has been. Even in countries like Germany where growth has 83 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: been strong, services inflation has been weak, and that won't 84 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: really be affected by higher oil prices. I think those 85 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: who believe that deflation in Europe is a longer term 86 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: concern and structural concern, they will focus more on that 87 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: dynamic um and certainly in that framework, it's too soon 88 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: to say that Europe is definitively going to move out 89 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: of the inflation trap, sorry, deflation trap, just because of 90 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: prices and moving up. So I think the jury will 91 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 1: be out on this for a long time. James probably 92 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: would agree that the odds of inflation moving high in 93 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 1: the US UH and a sustainable basis are higher than 94 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: in Europe at this point. Well, let's get to the 95 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 1: the center of your world and UH. Many people's concerns 96 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: about the FED. The argument is we're gonna be importing 97 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: deflation because the dollar is going to be soaring because 98 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: of the return differential between interest rates in the US 99 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: and the rest of the world. But we really haven't 100 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: seen the dollar go anywhere for about two years now. Well, 101 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: that the thing is, the markets obviously always try to 102 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: price ahead of time a rate cycle UM. And what 103 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: we've typically seen is that the markets get ahead of 104 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: themselves in terms of how many rate hikes they priced 105 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 1: in for the FED, and then when that's happening, the 106 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 1: dollar strengthens. Once you see the FED not actually hike 107 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: as many times as the market expected, you tend to 108 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: see the dollar pull back UM. And I think that's 109 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: the issue that we've been contending with over the past year. 110 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: That's just FED hasn't been able to deliver as many 111 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: highest as the market expected U, and that's pulled the 112 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: dollar back over the past year. What does the dollar 113 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: have scope to go significantly higher? I think that's unlikely 114 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: for the simple reason that there's a self fulfilling prophecy 115 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 1: of source working out there, which is, as soon as 116 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: the market tries to price in a significant number of 117 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: FED rate heights, the dollar wants to go a lot 118 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,799 Speaker 1: higher UM and immediately starts to create some disinflationory forces 119 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: for the US economy. Often you also see other countries 120 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: in emerging markets, for example, start to show signs of 121 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: stress to when that happens. So you always find that 122 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: in a way, you go back to square one once 123 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,479 Speaker 1: you start to get that type of dynamic. So I 124 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: think you really need to see either a clear sign 125 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: that the US economy could go h its own way 126 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: without being impacted by the rest of the world for 127 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: the dollar to keep threatening, or you need to perversely, 128 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: you might need to see some signs that the rest 129 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: of the world is doing well enough to allow the 130 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: Fed to hike as many times as the market would want. Well, well, 131 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: if I couldn't let me just file down with one 132 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: question here ahead of Dan Torula coming on, does that 133 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: suggest the Fed was wrong to freak out about the 134 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: markets in January and put off any RADI increases. Well, 135 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: January was a stressful time. We've at this point. Obviously 136 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: the STP is back towards the highest volatility, and markets 137 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: is very low. It's easy to forget how January felt. 138 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: Particularly the rutchers that we were seeing in the in 139 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: the Chinese currency market at that time took everybody by surprise, 140 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: and I think in my view, the FED did the 141 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: right thing by playing it safe at that time. If 142 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: there was a tremendous amount of inflationary pressure already in 143 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: the pipeline. You might question that, but I think given 144 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: what we now know, I still believe that it was 145 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: the right move to to be cautious at the start 146 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: of the year. So the question now, going forward UM 147 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: and with markets much more stable, is what prompts the 148 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: FED to hike Now. The focus right now is on 149 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: US domestic data, obviously, and Harold's numbers tomorrow make a 150 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: lot of difference in that equation. But for me, for 151 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: the dollar to have trend growth, it's not enough to 152 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: just see one FED high cover the summer. What I 153 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: need to see is a sequence of events, a sequence 154 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: of positive numbers from the US that forces the market 155 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: to price in But many more than that. But if 156 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: if your world is a world of comparing contrast of ratios, 157 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: is it about American dollar dynamics or is it about 158 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: other weaker economies? Is that really what we're talking about. 159 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: It's the interplayer of the two UM And of course, 160 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: what we've seen over the past few years is that 161 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: the independence of the American growth dynamic from what's going 162 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: on in the rest of the world is reducing UM. 163 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 1: In fact, as China, for example, gets bigger, and bigger. Um. 164 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: The interplay between the US and the rest of the 165 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: world is only going to go higher. So it becomes 166 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: much more for coul to try to disentangle what the 167 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: U S economy is doing from what the global economy 168 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: is doing. And that will be a new feature for 169 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,439 Speaker 1: the FX market to have to get to get a handle. 170 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: And I think going forward, are you worried about what 171 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: happens with the Chinese when there's there's a school of 172 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: thought that said what happened in January was really currency 173 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 1: traders fought because they didn't understand the new Chinese currency 174 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: regime that they're focused on the basket and everybody else 175 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 1: was worried about whether the dollar that the U N 176 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: would be devalued against the dollar. Well, the problem is 177 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: the level of transparency provided by the Chinese authorities around 178 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: how the one is managed is fairly low, to be honest, UM, 179 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: So the possibility of mishaps in that framework is is 180 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: obviously a lot higher. UM. I think what we have 181 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: right now the market has agreed upon it is the 182 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: idea that there is now a trade weighted remimbe target 183 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: of sorts UM and they're allowing the remanbe to fall 184 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 1: against a group of currencies slowly over time they see 185 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: to come to the conclusion that this is a safer 186 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: way of achieving a weekly currency than step shifts against 187 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: the US DOLA, which a much more noticeable and cause 188 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 1: a more more angst to the market. Chev glins with 189 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 1: us with card sweets. Less to talk about here to 190 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: set it up before we are we Mike seven forty 191 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: five for the rate decisions. But any real information will 192 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: come at eight thirty Well Street when so tomorrow Dragging 193 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: and Vienna, Din and Mr Trula will be with our 194 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: David Weston here within this hour. That will be an 195 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: important Conversationral banker surveillance today. It is central banker surveillance today. 196 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: We'll do a little bit on oil to forty nine, 197 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: seventy five on Brent crude forty nine on West Texas Intermediate. 198 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: All eyes on Vienna. Let's check out with Michael Byr. 199 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: Now I'll get the latest world in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, 200 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Hillary Clinton is calling Donald Trump 201 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: a fraud, claiming he's trying to scam Americans the way 202 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: he scams students who enrolled in his university. Trump's campaign 203 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: is seeking to deflect criticism of his defunct real estate 204 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: seminars with positive testimonials from two former students. German Chancellor 205 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: Angelo Merkel faces the country's next run in with Turkeys. 206 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: President Parliament is preparing to vote on condemning the Ottoman 207 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: empires nineteen fifteen killings and deportations of Remedians as genocide. 208 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: In Texas, more rain is in the forecast. Southwest of Houston, 209 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: the Brazils River is already four feet above record levels. 210 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: Heavy rain and flash flooding has left at least five 211 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: people dead in parts of France and Belgium and Germany. 212 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: In south we southeast Germany, several people drowned in the 213 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 1: state of Bavaria. Global News twenty four hours a day, 214 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists. I'm Michael Barr, 215 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: Mike Tom, Michael Barr, thanks so much. Future is negative 216 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: to Dow Futures Negative twelve Michael McKee and Tom Keene. 217 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: In this hour, Governor taruo it Bloomberg surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance 218 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: is brought to you by your Mercedes Benz tri state dealer. 219 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: There's no better way to experience somewhere than in the 220 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: car of your dreams. 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