WEBVTT - Israel, UAW, Apple, and a Soft Landing 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:05.240 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.600 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 I'm the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.520 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:22.799 Check in with her. Next, I guess Mick Molroy. 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:26.680 He's a co founder of the Lobo Institute, former paramilitary 0:00:26.680 --> 0:00:29.520 operations officer at the CIA, and former US Marine Infantry 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:33.400 officer for sixteen years, so we thank him for his service. 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:35.440 Mick, it is bad. 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:38.280 In the Middle East, and it looks like it's gonna 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:42.199 get worse. What do you believe Israel should do at 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:42.680 this point? 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:45.760 You know, I think I heard that every day when 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:47.640 I came into my office when I was responsible for 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.560 the Middle Least, and it's not always that bad. 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:51.239 But you're right. 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:51.919 I agree with you. 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.920 It is bad right now in two ways. Obviously, Israel 0:00:56.200 --> 0:01:00.160 has to go and destroy the enemy that attack them 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:03.040 on October seven, but the people of the Gods of 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:06.600 the Palestinian also need to be allowed basic necessities such 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.319 as food, water and medicine, and it looks like that 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:12.160 is two things that we're going to do everything we can. 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.840 We'd be in the United States to make happen. Very 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:18.680 difficult in a situation like this, but necessary, and I 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:20.160 think we're going to do it. 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:26.160 I wonder about the actual tools and technology that modern 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:30.160 armies use because we see so much reporting about Hamas 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:35.120 having this underground tunnel network, which sounds terrifying, but of 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:39.880 course there were such underground tunnel networks in previous wars, 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:42.600 you know, decades and decades ago. So do we have 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:47.520 ordinance that can reach deep underground and destroy a network 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:48.080 of tunnels? 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:53.440 So yes, The problem is when those tunnels are under buildings, 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:57.640 there is ordinance that has the ability. It's time delayed 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.600 so it penetrates into the ground before it detonates and 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:04.520 then causes this concussion that can collapse tunnels. Now, if 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:06.760 there are some of the tunnels in Gaza are up 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.320 to two hundred feet underground, it won't work for them. 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:12.680 And then on top of that, so subterranean fighting to 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:14.720 your point of your question, yes, we've been doing that 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:17.280 for a while. But the complicated factor in here is 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:20.880 normally you could just use combat engineers, seal them up, 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:25.160 explode ordinance above them, collapse them. But now we have 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:28.200 up to two hundred and twenty plus hostages that might 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:30.160 be in those tunnels, and you can't do any of 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.520 those tactics that we've done in the past or that 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:34.600 has been done in the past. When it comes to 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:37.520 subterranean warfare, you have to go mile by mile, and 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.760 there's over three hundred miles to try to recover these 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:42.880 hostages at the same time you're fighting the enemy. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:46.400 This brings up another interesting point, and it's like, I 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:50.200 guess a moral battle that any army is going to 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:54.640 have internally, At what point do you say, we do 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.960 not negotiate with terrorists and we're going to move ahead 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:03.320 with our main aim, which is destroyed hamas you know. Essentially, 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:06.720 I mean, is it even possible to say we will 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.840 sacrifice these hostages in order to achieve our goal. 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:14.800 So it is possible to do that, I don't think 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:19.600 it should be done or will be done. Ultimately, militaries 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:23.560 are there to protect their civilians, just like our military 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:26.640 is to protect the United States and everybody in it. So, 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:29.680 although it makes it much more complicated and quite frankly, 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:32.840 it brings a lot more risk to the force to 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:37.080 try to recover hostages. That's that's part of what we do, 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.280 and I think they will focus on doing both. It 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:41.280 would have been much better. 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:44.880 I mean, the problem is obviously in order to you know, 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:47.360 in order to try and get those two hundred and 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:51.720 twenty hostages back, you could risk losing exponentially more soldiers. 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:57.480 That's you could you will risk losing more soldiers. Yes, 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:01.839 there's no easy decision here, but every time you send 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:04.880 in a hostage rescue force, you are risking the force 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:08.960 to rescue in most cases one individual and it's a 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:12.600 mission failure if the hostage taker just turns and shoots 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:14.840 a person at the last second. But you're still risking 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.640 the entire force in the process, and sometimes they use 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:20.479 it as a way to lure end forces to attack them. 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.080 That happens all not all the time, but certainly in 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:26.960 most hostage rescue situations here it could happen up to 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:30.880 two hundred and twenty times. So because they could be separated, 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:32.800 they're not going to be in the same place, and 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.600 it's going to be extraordinarily difficult, and it's something that 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:39.880 the IDF is grasping right now, I think and hopefully, 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:43.359 and I think we do have members of JASOK and 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.039 the CIA on the ground helping them, but they have 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.240 very effective special operations and this is just a very 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:51.279 complicated military problem. 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:52.159 Mick. 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:55.400 What do you believe at this time is the risk 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:58.279 of this becoming a more regional conflict? You know, whether 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:02.799 Siri or lebanonwear are we in that regard? 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:05.000 So listening to I thought it was high, and then 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:09.279 listening to the Iranian statements yesterday, I think it's higher. 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:11.200 So that is one of the reasons why I think 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:15.200 the United States has been so proactive at moving now 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.680 a second aircraft carry strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:23.400 something that's unprecedented. Now there's a the twenty six MEW, 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:26.320 the Marine Expeditionary Unit is being retasked there, and I 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:28.919 think you're going to see more and more resources coming 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:32.359 to the region because I believe, we think Iran wants 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:35.200 this to expand let's hope it doesn't. Let's hope the 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.400 United States doesn't have to get involved, but it looks 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:41.240 like it's heading that way, and Iran can easily make 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:43.920 this go from a one front war if you will, 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.960 to a three to four front war. And if they 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.159 get involved directly, then this is going to be a 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:49.800 regional war. 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:54.800 So where did the other countries align? 0:05:55.080 --> 0:06:00.360 If the US is drawn in to a broader regional conflict, 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:01.200 what happens? 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:05.480 What do the Saudis do? You know? What are the Turks? 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:05.599 Do? 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.520 They're in NATO? Are they are they on our side 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:09.400 against Iran? 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:14.400 So when it turns into a war against Iran, if 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:16.640 that's what happens a little bit, let's hope it does not. 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:19.919 That would not be good for anybody the region or 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:23.360 the United States, and certainly not Iran. Then the Saudis 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.120 and all these Gulf states who do have some political 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.599 ties and sympathies, certainly to the Palestinians, it could shift 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:32.840 quite a bit because they are no friends of the Iranians. 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:35.360 In fact, most of the Iranian efforts have been targeted 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:37.839 toward them. If you think about the Huthis and Yemen 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:42.520 toward Saudi Arabia and the uae I. Don't think they'll 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:46.479 become actively involved, but certainly that'll change the calculus for them. 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:51.640 If this becomes a Israel, Iran and US conflict that 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:56.400 goes well beyond Gaza. That said, it is not going 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:58.320 to be in anybody's interests. This is going to be 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:02.719 very destabilizing, its ruin economies, and it could be very 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:07.200 substantial if you think about it. There's several nuclear powered 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:09.520 countries that would be involved in that, and Iran is 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:13.240 on the precipice of getting their own nuclear weapon, and 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:15.240 I don't know what that status is now out of 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.720 the government, but it could be very close and that's 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:19.560 something they could be racing toward right now. 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.880 McK prime Minister net Yale, who had an interesting weekend 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:29.680 over social media seemingly putting the blame on the intelligence 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:34.240 apparatus of Israel for the October seventh attack, how do 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.880 you put all of that into context with what the 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:38.800 military is trying to achieve here. 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:43.160 So I believe in the old adage, you know the 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.960 buck stops here concept. You know, you're a charge, you're 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.000 in charge for everything that happens or fails to happen. 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:53.280 It was obviously an intelligence failure, but more than that, 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.160 it was a security failure because even if you did 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:59.560 not know that they were coming, the reaction times, quite 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:03.240 frankly from what I've seen, are unacceptable, especially in a 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.680 country the size of Israel and that's and that's that's 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:08.960 saying something. But it's also important to point out that 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:11.560 we had a pretty massive intelligence failure and I think 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:14.320 we have the best intelligence services in the world on 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:18.000 nine to eleven. So it's less about poking fingers and 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.120 more about you know, that needs to be addressed by Israel. 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.240 I know they know this, it's not the thing that 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:25.680 you know, it's a surprise to them. After that. I 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:27.600 think they will. They just don't have time to do 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:29.880 it now. It's going to have to be on their 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.960 to do list right after this. Uh, this current conflict 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:34.080 is over. 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:40.160 So Mick, just as observers here, should we set in 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:45.199 for a long grinding type of action here or is 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:48.960 there any scenario where there could be something quick, decisive, 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:50.640 measured in days not months. 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:54.880 So there could be, but I think that would require 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:59.440 the Israelis changing their objective. If they want to destroy 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.840 which is a military term, destroy Hamas, that makes them 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:07.319 essentially completely ineffective in carrying out their military although in 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:12.840 their case terroraced mission, unless they reconstitute themselves. If that 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:15.400 is still their objective, it's going to take months and 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:18.520 months to do that. In Gaza. If you look at 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:21.720 MOSL in twenty sixteen, it took nine months and there's 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:25.840 only nine thousand fighters. Gaza has forty thousand fighters. And 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.400 then if they want them to prevent them from reconstituting themselves, 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:31.960 they're going to have some kind of occupation. They can't 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:34.360 just leave and let it go because Aron will move 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.240 right in, pick up the pieces and start harming them 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:40.160 and all that immediately. So they're going to have to 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:43.720 be some kind of force. Maybe it's not Israelis. Maybe 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:46.920 there's an international force, peacekeeping force that can move in 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:51.880 to help with the rebuilding of the area and of 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:55.480 course humanitarian assistants, but also to ensure that Hamas does 0:09:55.520 --> 0:10:00.160 not reconstitute itself. That's something that's actively being discussed. Much 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.640 easier said than done, that's something that I think should 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:04.080 be looked at all. 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:05.520 Right, Mick, thank you so much for joining us. 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:09.319 Really appreciate getting your perspective, your analysis. Mick mulroy, he's 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.280 a co founder of the Lobo Institute. Lots of experience 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:14.720 in that part of the world. Former Power Military operations 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:18.520 officer at CIA, former US Marine Infantry officer, senior fellow 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:20.800 at the Middle East Institute, So a lot of experience 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:23.240 in that part of the world and with those types 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:24.560 of geopolitical challenges. 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:29.959 You're listening to the Team ken'shur Live program Bloomberg Markets 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:33.080 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:36.320 iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:38.480 demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:42.160 All right, it looks like we are moving towards labor 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:45.160 piece in the auto industry. GM reach is tenant of 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:48.440 agreement today with UAW ending a six week strike. Let's 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.160 break it down with a Gabby Coppola, auto industry reporter 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:55.040 for Bloomberg News. Gabby, this seems like I guess the 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.000 last deal to get done here. Anything unusual in this 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:01.400 deal relative to what we saw from four to INSTALLANTUS. 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:03.240 Not yet. 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.800 We don't have enough details to say if there is big, 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.240 you know, differences, I don't. I mean, I think obviously 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:11.920 they followed the pattern and on wages, you know, twenty 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:15.160 five percent over four years and eight months, plus inflation 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:20.520 protection or inflation adjustments. I think that money for retirees 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.080 had been one of the big sticking points towards the 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.040 end for GM, and that's why you saw I THEK 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:29.520 UAW actually expanding their strike this weekend against GM before 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:32.920 it got done. But I think I think temps and 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:36.480 retiree you know, money for pensioneers and retirees with the 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:40.320 sticking points, and we don't We'll see what that extras 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.960 little strike did if that bug GM up to be 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:45.080 in the same place as Fordham, stillant. 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:47.720 Is or not right, because walk us through the differences 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:52.760 between these three auto manufacturers. They're all big, right, but 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.520 GM has a lot more I think retirees to consider. 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.680 GM has, for example, more temp workers than than Ford, 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:01.720 maybe a little fewer than Stillanis. 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:03.760 So there are differences between these three companies. 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:05.319 That's exactly right. 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.680 I mean, I think once Ford set the pattern on wages, 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.040 that was the pattern, you know, But then you get 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.160 into some of these other issues exactly what you mentioned. 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:17.640 JAM has much bigger pool of retirees than say Stilantis does, 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:21.440 but Stilantis, you know, has fewer plants in the US 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:22.640 than Ford and GM. 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:23.840 Ford has the most. 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:27.080 And the temp worker issue, that was an interesting one 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:29.080 because Ford has always kind of been the boy scout 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.880 here of the D three, like they always like to 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:34.679 brag that they have more American you know, workers and 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:37.920 you know, full time workers in their counterparts. And that's true. 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.640 So it was kind of less painful for them to 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.240 bring up the temps than it would have been for 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:45.559 a GM in Stilantis. So they were Yeah, I think 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.160 they're probably happy to see GM and Bland is getting 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:49.760 pushed to where they are in that. 0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:52.480 Regard because Ford had what a GM has like ten 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.680 percent of its workers at any given time or temps 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.480 right right, so that a little more and Ford far fewer. 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:01.640 Ford was like around what we reported going to the 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.400 strike was Ford was around three percent. I think JAM 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.319 was around nine or ten percent, and Silantis was. 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:10.839 Like twelve percent. And I think one of the things 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:12.479 that really strikes. 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.679 Me mat just looking at this what the contract they got, 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:17.679 it is like complete. 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:19.240 They completely turned the tables. 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:22.000 You know, the companies were really used to going into 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.400 these things and squeezing the union. 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:25.199 Harder and harder. 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.880 Silantis wanted even more flexibility to use more temp workers. 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:33.480 They wanted to eliminate, you know, thousands of jobs. They 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:37.240 wanted to close this engine and complex in Trenton, Michigan, 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:39.600 Toledo Machining, and. 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:40.480 None of that happened. 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.000 I mean, they put it price Delanta's put a vehicle 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.439 back in Velvedere or Illinois. That was a huge deal 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:48.840 because that was a major issue for the UAW. That 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.400 was you know, thirteen hundred people got laid off the 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:56.080 spring when Silantis idled that plant, and it really did 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.120 not look like it was coming back. So I think 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.959 what really strikes me is just how much the union 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.559 really turned the tables on the companies. It went from 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:09.000 the union, you know, really getting pretty concessionary, you know, 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:13.720 modest wage increases, things like that, ever since the bankruptcy, 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.000 you know, ever since two thousand and seven, really even 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:18.800 before the bankruptcy when they started making cuts to kind 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.120 of help the automakers survive what was coming. 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:23.560 And this, I mean, this is what May said he 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.120 was going to do, and you know he did do it. 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:30.200 Like they really I'm not saying they got everything they wanted, 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:32.560 but they got a lot and they definitely be back 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:34.840 to aut of the confessions that companies were looking for. 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.800 So what what did turn the tables there, Gabby? Was 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:40.800 it just simply catching up and trying to get back 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.440 what they had conceided over the last twelve to fourteen years, 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.520 or is something fundamentally changed within that relationship. 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.720 I think it was a few different factors. 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.640 I mean, one, I think the automakers knew they needed 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:54.840 to pay more because of inflation, right, I mean I 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.240 always remind people of this that, you know, we saw 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.280 during the pandemic, the labor market's been very tight. Ever 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.280 since then, inflation has been really you know, the highest, 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:05.920 and you know interest rates are high. That was really 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.880 squeezing people. I mean, don't forget a temp worker. You 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.400 know it takes landing for instance. You know, they had 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.560 the biggest number of temp workers. Those people made fifteen 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.320 dollars and seventy eight cents an hour. And then you 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:19.600 think about all the inflation that happened over the past 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:24.720 couple of years, you know, the non union employers, the Amazon, Starbucks, 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.600 everybody was raising wages to respond to the tight labor 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.760 market and inflation. And the company, the car companies kind 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:33.120 of hadn't done that. They hadn't paid the bill, right, 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.000 the bill was coming. So I think for sure part 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:37.960 of it was like they legitimately knew they had to 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:42.680 pay more. I think part of it was, yes, you know, 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:44.600 after two thousand and eight, people really feel like they 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:48.480 deserved the mentality of the Union is that we gave 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.520 these concessions to you guys to get you through. They 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.280 weren't supposed to be permanent, right, And the car companies 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:56.520 were like, no, this is our new business model, this 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:58.920 is our new labor costs, this is our new operating. 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:04.040 The forget, by the way, Gabby is it is some 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.520 of this also, for example Stilantis. It's easier for them 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.520 to agree because, as you say, they don't really make 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.240 that much stuff in this country. 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.040 And if they're gonna if somehow. 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:17.000 Magically Dodge and Chrysler become brands where they're gonna produce 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:18.080 more cars. 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.920 I mean, that doesn't seem like it's gonna happen. 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:21.560 Now. 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.360 They'll make them in Canada, or they'll make them in Mexico. 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:29.880 I mean, this is essentially the Union sealing its fate 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.360 in terms of uh, not not going to add any 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.080 extra capacity in the US for a few years. 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.040 Are we well? 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:40.680 I think you know that is certainly a concern, I think, 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:43.680 and I've even heard that concern express from some people 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.440 in the labor movement, like, oh, I hope we didn't 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.480 do so much that we're now going to shield ourselves 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:53.880 from future investment. I'm not, you know, I am. I 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.040 am not going to rush to judgment. I'm gonna wait 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:57.960 and see what happens. I look forward to doing a 0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:00.640 lot more reporting in the coming weeks, talking to people 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.000 on the executive side to say, wow, what are you. 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:03.760 Guys gonna do here? 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:04.080 You know? 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:09.400 But yeah, it's not It's true people want what flavor costs. 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:11.280 On the other hand, you've got the Inflation Reduction Act, 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:15.240 You've got all these incentives, you know. And I didn't mention, 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:18.600 but obviously I think the biggest thing was Sean Fain 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:20.320 and new leadership at the UAW. 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:21.560 This is very. 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:26.920 Different, more hard left, more you know, just really more radical, 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:28.640 more just more militant. 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:30.280 Well, and I wouldn't I wouldn't want to. 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.840 I wouldn't use the term unbribeable Gabby, because I would 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.800 want wouldn't want to make that allegation, you know. But 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:40.520 but past union leaders that are in prison, right, Yeah. 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.920 Absolutely, I mean I think that, you know, I would 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.440 say that some things that were great that the Sean 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:48.600 pain and the leadership did was they brought this level 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:53.320 of transparency to the union and to the process of negotiation. 0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.760 I mean, Fain was on there every week doing these 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.960 Facebook live you know, updates speaking directly to the membership. 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:01.679 You know, in the past, this was something that happened behind. 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:04.040 Closed doors with a few group of men, you know, 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.160 and that would come out and be like here's the deal, 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:07.640 you know, and there was a lot of a lot 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:10.920 of mistrust between the leadership and the membership, especially once 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:14.640 the you know, corruption scandal started. So in some ways 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:18.000 you kind of had to have this like clean break 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.119 with the past and do things really different. And I 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.800 think that Spain just really won the trust of people, 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.000 and it feels like a much more democratic union and 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.520 honestly like a healthier union just from like an engagement standpoint. 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:31.560 And I think that gave them. 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:32.159 A lot of power. 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:35.040 You know. I don't think they could have gone on forever, right, 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:37.280 Like people were starting to hurt, especially people have been 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.879 on strike since September fifteenth, like at the g plant, 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.240 you know, the you know, stuff like truck Plant and 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:43.400 Michigan Ford. 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.320 You know, people were getting tired, right Sure. 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:48.959 Hey, Gabby, do you think d UAW takes these wins 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:50.760 and maybe it goes down south to some of these 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:52.520 non unionized plan that's definitely. 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:55.160 They're one hundred percent that's the plan. I mean last 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:59.240 night Sean Fain, when who was going over the Ford details, 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:01.480 he said, just going to be the big three. It's 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:04.760 going to be the Big four, five six, meaning they 0:19:04.800 --> 0:19:09.280 have did the whole of these contracts. Was this is 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.800 our calling card to the non union plans? 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:12.800 Fascinating. 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.439 I wonder when we get more details, if we're going 0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:19.320 to find out cool stuff like, uh, what cars is 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:20.320 Dodge going to build? 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:21.080 What cars? 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:23.960 I mean, is Chrysler only going to have the PACIFICA 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:26.760 or are we going to find out plans. 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.760 For the future Productler has shown a lot of Chrysler 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:34.080 is really trying to go beyond you know, the minivan. Well, 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.720 I mean, we'll see what the actual industrialization plan is. 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:38.440 But I mean they brought out a lot of really 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:42.720 sleek looking kind of crossovers kind of you know, I've 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.920 been a very kind of post hopefully like your more 0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:50.480 affordable kind of stylish that would kind of appeel to, 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:53.520 I think to like younger people, you know, that kind 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:56.359 of you don't necessarily have kids twenties and thirties. 0:19:56.640 --> 0:20:00.240 Crossfire after the crossfire was pretty cool at the TI time. 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:02.720 Yep, all right, all right, Gabby, thank you so much 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:03.199 for joining us. 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:07.160