1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:27,284 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey everyone, I'm Maria Kanikova and welcome to a 2 00:00:27,444 --> 00:00:31,364 Speaker 1: special episode of Risky Business, our podcast with Nate Silver 3 00:00:31,764 --> 00:00:35,644 Speaker 1: about making better decisions. Except today it's just me and 4 00:00:35,964 --> 00:00:40,884 Speaker 1: a very special guest, Jennifer Shahade. Jennifer is someone who 5 00:00:41,004 --> 00:00:45,164 Speaker 1: I've known for many years, and she is a truly 6 00:00:45,404 --> 00:00:50,244 Speaker 1: extraordinary individual. She is a two times Women's US Chess champ, 7 00:00:50,604 --> 00:00:55,444 Speaker 1: the first woman to win the Junior Championship, a Woman's Grandmaster, 8 00:00:56,044 --> 00:01:00,284 Speaker 1: and the author of multiple books, Play Like a Girl, 9 00:01:00,684 --> 00:01:05,084 Speaker 1: Play Like a Champion, Chess Bitch, and Chess Queens, and 10 00:01:05,404 --> 00:01:09,884 Speaker 1: the upcoming Thinking Sideways. Jennifer, thank you so so much 11 00:01:09,884 --> 00:01:12,844 Speaker 1: for joining. So happy to have you here on Risky Business. 12 00:01:13,244 --> 00:01:16,644 Speaker 2: Oh I'm so excited about your podcast. Maria. It's wonderful 13 00:01:16,684 --> 00:01:17,204 Speaker 2: to be here. 14 00:01:19,004 --> 00:01:22,564 Speaker 1: So I want to start with your upbringing, because you 15 00:01:22,644 --> 00:01:25,404 Speaker 1: are someone who not only is in a risky business, 16 00:01:25,524 --> 00:01:28,284 Speaker 1: because you and I are actually members of Poker Stars 17 00:01:28,284 --> 00:01:32,164 Speaker 1: Team Pro together, so we also played poker and that's 18 00:01:32,164 --> 00:01:35,724 Speaker 1: how we originally met. But you are someone who's been 19 00:01:35,764 --> 00:01:39,804 Speaker 1: thinking through this lens of gaming for most of your life. 20 00:01:40,044 --> 00:01:42,484 Speaker 1: So I'd like to go back to your childhood and 21 00:01:42,604 --> 00:01:44,884 Speaker 1: I'd love for you to tell us about how you 22 00:01:44,924 --> 00:01:47,364 Speaker 1: got introduced to the world of games. 23 00:01:48,004 --> 00:01:51,404 Speaker 3: Oh, it's honestly before I can even remember. There's a 24 00:01:51,404 --> 00:01:54,404 Speaker 3: picture of me when I was two years old playing 25 00:01:54,444 --> 00:01:57,604 Speaker 3: against my brother in chess, and obviously I don't think 26 00:01:57,604 --> 00:02:02,484 Speaker 3: I knew the moves quite then, but it definitely really 27 00:02:02,724 --> 00:02:06,724 Speaker 3: predated any memories that I have. My parents are also 28 00:02:06,884 --> 00:02:11,244 Speaker 3: big lovers of card games, poker, bred Everything in our 29 00:02:11,284 --> 00:02:14,124 Speaker 3: life is about games, and they were also really big 30 00:02:14,164 --> 00:02:17,084 Speaker 3: into sports and sports betting, so I know that's another 31 00:02:17,124 --> 00:02:20,244 Speaker 3: aspect of this podcast, so I feel much at home here. 32 00:02:21,084 --> 00:02:23,444 Speaker 1: I actually didn't know that about sports betting, so let's 33 00:02:23,484 --> 00:02:26,284 Speaker 1: return to that in a second. But first, your brother 34 00:02:26,404 --> 00:02:28,844 Speaker 1: is actually also someone who is well known in the 35 00:02:28,844 --> 00:02:31,364 Speaker 1: world of chess, as is your father. Right, so you 36 00:02:31,404 --> 00:02:34,964 Speaker 1: are someone who comes from what's known as a chess family. 37 00:02:35,724 --> 00:02:37,684 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, and it's really typical. 38 00:02:37,724 --> 00:02:40,684 Speaker 3: Honestly, it's a very very typical way for chess players 39 00:02:40,684 --> 00:02:43,604 Speaker 3: to get into the game is via their family, especially 40 00:02:43,644 --> 00:02:46,244 Speaker 3: women players. I feel like when you talk to a 41 00:02:46,244 --> 00:02:48,964 Speaker 3: female player, it's very very typical that her brother plays, 42 00:02:49,004 --> 00:02:51,564 Speaker 3: her father plays, her mother plays, and I think a 43 00:02:51,564 --> 00:02:52,804 Speaker 3: lot of that is it just gives them that like 44 00:02:52,884 --> 00:02:54,404 Speaker 3: kind of built in support network. 45 00:02:55,684 --> 00:02:58,924 Speaker 1: And what was it about the game chess that first 46 00:02:58,924 --> 00:03:02,444 Speaker 1: attracted you? Was it the competitive angle or was it 47 00:03:02,484 --> 00:03:05,764 Speaker 1: the fact that you're thinking about kind of decision making 48 00:03:06,524 --> 00:03:09,284 Speaker 1: on a different level. Do you happen to remember because 49 00:03:09,964 --> 00:03:12,124 Speaker 1: I you know, when I was a little kid, my 50 00:03:12,204 --> 00:03:14,124 Speaker 1: parents tried to get me to play chess and that 51 00:03:14,164 --> 00:03:14,884 Speaker 1: did not stick. 52 00:03:15,604 --> 00:03:15,804 Speaker 2: Yeah. 53 00:03:15,844 --> 00:03:18,444 Speaker 3: I think I heard about this the Scholar's Mate right 54 00:03:18,604 --> 00:03:20,604 Speaker 3: before exact listen. 55 00:03:20,644 --> 00:03:24,724 Speaker 2: It happened to Beth Harmon and she recovered from it, 56 00:03:24,844 --> 00:03:25,804 Speaker 2: So you know, you're good. 57 00:03:27,924 --> 00:03:31,244 Speaker 1: Yes for listeners of the podcast who don't know this story. 58 00:03:31,964 --> 00:03:34,244 Speaker 1: When I was in fifth grade, I learned how to 59 00:03:34,244 --> 00:03:39,484 Speaker 1: play chess and during my first ever chess competition, succumbed 60 00:03:39,524 --> 00:03:42,564 Speaker 1: to scholars mate, which is a mate in three moves. 61 00:03:43,364 --> 00:03:44,964 Speaker 1: And that was a move that was done by a 62 00:03:45,004 --> 00:03:47,644 Speaker 1: five year old when I was in fifth grade, and 63 00:03:47,724 --> 00:03:51,964 Speaker 1: I never recovered and have never played chess since then. Such, 64 00:03:52,204 --> 00:03:53,924 Speaker 1: you clearly had a very different experience. 65 00:03:54,444 --> 00:03:56,124 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I'm sure I got made it in the 66 00:03:56,244 --> 00:03:58,324 Speaker 3: scholars I do remember getting made in the scholars Mate, 67 00:03:58,364 --> 00:04:00,524 Speaker 3: and it's a bit of a tangent, but because it's 68 00:04:00,604 --> 00:04:03,364 Speaker 3: risky business. I am going to mention a story about 69 00:04:03,364 --> 00:04:06,564 Speaker 3: the scholar's mate. So a lot of kids like the 70 00:04:06,804 --> 00:04:09,404 Speaker 3: like the horrible five year old who checkmated you and four, 71 00:04:09,964 --> 00:04:13,284 Speaker 3: they try the scholar's mate because it works. But it's 72 00:04:13,284 --> 00:04:16,164 Speaker 3: not a good opening, right, It's objectively bad because if 73 00:04:16,204 --> 00:04:19,964 Speaker 3: your opponent knows to avoid it, then you know you're 74 00:04:20,204 --> 00:04:22,204 Speaker 3: gonna get a bad position. So it's very much an 75 00:04:22,204 --> 00:04:25,084 Speaker 3: equity calculation. So the Scholar's made at the age of 76 00:04:25,124 --> 00:04:27,724 Speaker 3: like five and six, kids are thinking about that. Actually, 77 00:04:28,364 --> 00:04:31,564 Speaker 3: and my son actually was sitting in on an online 78 00:04:31,564 --> 00:04:35,324 Speaker 3: class with Magnus Carlson, the highest rated chess player in history. 79 00:04:35,724 --> 00:04:37,164 Speaker 1: Your son, how old is he? 80 00:04:37,164 --> 00:04:38,604 Speaker 2: He's seven now. 81 00:04:38,924 --> 00:04:42,684 Speaker 1: And he is sitting in on a class with Magnus Carlson. 82 00:04:42,844 --> 00:04:46,244 Speaker 1: And what's your son's name, Fabian? And who is he 83 00:04:46,324 --> 00:04:47,044 Speaker 1: named after? 84 00:04:47,404 --> 00:04:49,404 Speaker 3: Well, in a way, he was named after the world 85 00:04:49,524 --> 00:04:52,764 Speaker 3: number two player, Fabiano Carojuana. 86 00:04:53,084 --> 00:04:57,044 Speaker 2: Actually in a way, in a way, all right, So back. 87 00:04:56,844 --> 00:05:00,004 Speaker 1: To your story. So Fabian is in this class with 88 00:05:00,084 --> 00:05:01,284 Speaker 1: Magnus Curlson. 89 00:05:01,124 --> 00:05:03,044 Speaker 3: And one of the kids asks Magnus, like, what do 90 00:05:03,084 --> 00:05:04,964 Speaker 3: you think about the form of checkmate? And you know 91 00:05:05,004 --> 00:05:07,604 Speaker 3: everybody's expecting Magnus is just gonna say no, don't play 92 00:05:07,604 --> 00:05:09,164 Speaker 3: the form of checkmate. It's not a good opening, but 93 00:05:09,404 --> 00:05:11,324 Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, you know, it's not that bad to 94 00:05:11,364 --> 00:05:14,884 Speaker 3: try it. And I really I was like everybody was shocked. 95 00:05:14,884 --> 00:05:16,444 Speaker 3: And one of the coaches in the in the room 96 00:05:16,524 --> 00:05:18,804 Speaker 3: tried to like actually disagree. 97 00:05:18,324 --> 00:05:21,204 Speaker 2: With Magnus on the air, and I'm like, wait a. 98 00:05:21,204 --> 00:05:23,724 Speaker 3: Second, and no, I actually thought about it later and 99 00:05:23,764 --> 00:05:25,844 Speaker 3: I really loved it because I think what he was 100 00:05:26,004 --> 00:05:26,564 Speaker 3: trying to say. 101 00:05:26,604 --> 00:05:28,204 Speaker 2: I mean, he didn't expand on it. 102 00:05:28,244 --> 00:05:31,004 Speaker 3: But as many people might know, Magnus also really likes poker, 103 00:05:31,044 --> 00:05:34,044 Speaker 3: and he also really likes sportsbetting. Is that, you know, 104 00:05:34,084 --> 00:05:37,564 Speaker 3: why try to take away this instinct of children to 105 00:05:37,644 --> 00:05:40,324 Speaker 3: go for equity, Like I actually it's a good instinct, 106 00:05:40,404 --> 00:05:43,084 Speaker 3: you know, like, yeah, you're gonna look, you're not gonna 107 00:05:43,124 --> 00:05:45,004 Speaker 3: get that check made every time, but the ten or 108 00:05:45,044 --> 00:05:46,724 Speaker 3: twenty percent of the time that you do, you're gonna 109 00:05:46,724 --> 00:05:50,244 Speaker 3: win in foremos. So you know, it was the first 110 00:05:50,244 --> 00:05:53,644 Speaker 3: time I'd ever since heard a grandmaster say that, and 111 00:05:54,324 --> 00:05:55,524 Speaker 3: it stuck with me. 112 00:05:56,804 --> 00:06:01,684 Speaker 1: So that's actually a really interesting story. And I love 113 00:06:02,044 --> 00:06:05,404 Speaker 1: how you mentioned the idea of equity and how we 114 00:06:05,484 --> 00:06:08,764 Speaker 1: think about equity. And now in poker, when you're talking 115 00:06:08,804 --> 00:06:11,204 Speaker 1: about equity, you're talking about something very specific, right, the 116 00:06:11,204 --> 00:06:13,524 Speaker 1: equity of your hand, the future value of your hand, 117 00:06:13,884 --> 00:06:17,044 Speaker 1: how many chips you can imagine getting in the future, 118 00:06:17,124 --> 00:06:20,804 Speaker 1: And it's kind of this calculation that you're constantly trying 119 00:06:20,844 --> 00:06:23,564 Speaker 1: to make. So when you're talking about equity in chess, 120 00:06:23,644 --> 00:06:25,524 Speaker 1: are you thinking about it in the same way or 121 00:06:25,564 --> 00:06:26,524 Speaker 1: is it slightly different? 122 00:06:27,524 --> 00:06:30,164 Speaker 3: Well, that's a great question when it comes to talking 123 00:06:30,164 --> 00:06:33,084 Speaker 3: about somebody like Magnus Carlson, because I really think that 124 00:06:33,124 --> 00:06:35,124 Speaker 3: it used to be very different. When I was a 125 00:06:35,204 --> 00:06:39,324 Speaker 3: kid playing chess, we didn't really think about equity or probability. 126 00:06:39,564 --> 00:06:41,964 Speaker 3: It was more like we were looking for the best move, 127 00:06:42,604 --> 00:06:45,884 Speaker 3: and that is the way that most chess computers taught 128 00:06:45,964 --> 00:06:49,164 Speaker 3: us as well. But nowadays I think that chess players 129 00:06:49,204 --> 00:06:50,724 Speaker 3: are thinking more like poker players. 130 00:06:50,724 --> 00:06:52,644 Speaker 2: They are thinking about equity even more. 131 00:06:53,004 --> 00:06:55,004 Speaker 3: They're thinking not just about what the best move is, 132 00:06:55,084 --> 00:06:59,084 Speaker 3: but more about what move is likely to destabilize. 133 00:06:58,404 --> 00:07:00,924 Speaker 2: Your opponent and make them potentially. 134 00:07:00,724 --> 00:07:03,044 Speaker 3: Fall for the form of checkmate so that you can 135 00:07:03,524 --> 00:07:07,564 Speaker 3: win that ten percent of the times. Right now, so 136 00:07:07,764 --> 00:07:11,164 Speaker 3: it's become really a ruthless equity hunting game, just like poker. 137 00:07:12,084 --> 00:07:15,684 Speaker 1: So you're really thinking about not just kind of the 138 00:07:15,684 --> 00:07:18,524 Speaker 1: present moment, but the future, and you're trying to make 139 00:07:18,564 --> 00:07:22,644 Speaker 1: this probabilistic calculation, not just what does this move mean 140 00:07:22,764 --> 00:07:25,964 Speaker 1: right now, but what does this move mean for my 141 00:07:26,164 --> 00:07:30,124 Speaker 1: future ability to win? Given that it might there's an 142 00:07:30,164 --> 00:07:33,324 Speaker 1: ex probability that it's going to make my opponent get 143 00:07:33,364 --> 00:07:35,964 Speaker 1: really nervous, there's a why probability that it's going to 144 00:07:36,004 --> 00:07:40,084 Speaker 1: make my opponent blunder. So is that kind of how 145 00:07:40,124 --> 00:07:42,764 Speaker 1: we're thinking about it now exactly? 146 00:07:42,884 --> 00:07:44,964 Speaker 3: Of course, in chess, we're always trying to think about 147 00:07:45,044 --> 00:07:48,764 Speaker 3: what our opponent will play. But usually when I was taught, 148 00:07:48,884 --> 00:07:51,444 Speaker 3: I was always told always assume your opponent's going to 149 00:07:51,444 --> 00:07:55,284 Speaker 3: play the best move, because if they play a weaker move, 150 00:07:55,324 --> 00:07:57,684 Speaker 3: you'll win anyway. But if they play the best move, 151 00:07:57,724 --> 00:08:00,324 Speaker 3: you need to really prepare for that. Nowadays, I think there's. 152 00:08:00,124 --> 00:08:01,164 Speaker 2: A little bit more nuanced. 153 00:08:01,244 --> 00:08:04,724 Speaker 3: Well, people will really think about the psychological aspect of 154 00:08:04,724 --> 00:08:07,684 Speaker 3: the game of chess more, and in that way, I 155 00:08:07,684 --> 00:08:09,684 Speaker 3: think the games of chess and poker are really starting 156 00:08:09,764 --> 00:08:12,284 Speaker 3: to converge a little bit. Chess players are playing a 157 00:08:12,324 --> 00:08:15,084 Speaker 3: little bit more like poker players, and well, we definitely 158 00:08:15,084 --> 00:08:17,044 Speaker 3: know that poker players are a little bit more chess 159 00:08:17,124 --> 00:08:19,604 Speaker 3: like these days in the way they study and approach 160 00:08:19,644 --> 00:08:19,964 Speaker 3: the game. 161 00:08:20,964 --> 00:08:23,804 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a really interesting point because one of 162 00:08:23,844 --> 00:08:25,804 Speaker 1: the things that you said really jumped out at me. 163 00:08:26,204 --> 00:08:28,804 Speaker 1: You said, in chess, we no longer kind of assume 164 00:08:28,844 --> 00:08:31,684 Speaker 1: that that your opponent is going to make the best move, 165 00:08:32,204 --> 00:08:40,084 Speaker 1: and in poker, you actually are now assuming that your 166 00:08:40,124 --> 00:08:43,124 Speaker 1: opponent is going to play game theory optimal is going 167 00:08:43,244 --> 00:08:46,564 Speaker 1: to make the best move every time, and you're trying 168 00:08:46,564 --> 00:08:50,124 Speaker 1: to counter that because you know, in an interesting way, 169 00:08:50,124 --> 00:08:53,244 Speaker 1: I think poker is at a stage of its evolution 170 00:08:53,364 --> 00:08:55,644 Speaker 1: where chess has been for a while, where there are 171 00:08:55,684 --> 00:08:58,564 Speaker 1: now solvers and kind of ways that try to approximate 172 00:08:59,044 --> 00:09:01,964 Speaker 1: ideal behavior quote unquote, even though in poker it's it's 173 00:09:02,124 --> 00:09:05,244 Speaker 1: different than in chess because it is an imperfect information game, 174 00:09:05,924 --> 00:09:08,884 Speaker 1: but I do think it's this really interesting overlap in 175 00:09:09,004 --> 00:09:11,764 Speaker 1: terms of decisions and in terms of what we consider 176 00:09:12,164 --> 00:09:14,244 Speaker 1: to be optimal decision making. 177 00:09:14,564 --> 00:09:17,124 Speaker 3: I think that's like the reason why honestly poker is 178 00:09:17,164 --> 00:09:20,284 Speaker 3: so tantalizing, why it stood the test of time, that 179 00:09:20,804 --> 00:09:22,724 Speaker 3: you kind of have to balance the two polls. To me, 180 00:09:22,884 --> 00:09:27,004 Speaker 3: like the word poker itself, Like playing poker means adjusting, 181 00:09:27,524 --> 00:09:31,764 Speaker 3: like being present, right, it's paying attention and like actually 182 00:09:31,964 --> 00:09:34,604 Speaker 3: thinking about what your opponent is doing. And the other 183 00:09:34,604 --> 00:09:37,644 Speaker 3: stuff is like the theory that you fall back on 184 00:09:37,764 --> 00:09:40,084 Speaker 3: if you don't really pick up on anything, if your 185 00:09:40,244 --> 00:09:42,284 Speaker 3: ability to try to pay attention and see what your 186 00:09:42,284 --> 00:09:44,044 Speaker 3: opponents doesn't give you much of a read, and then 187 00:09:44,084 --> 00:09:45,724 Speaker 3: you're just like, well, I guess this is what I 188 00:09:45,764 --> 00:09:48,924 Speaker 3: have to do. And that to me is that like 189 00:09:49,004 --> 00:09:52,324 Speaker 3: everlasting tension between like what you think and what you 190 00:09:52,404 --> 00:09:55,884 Speaker 3: feel and having to choose between them in every situation. 191 00:09:58,044 --> 00:10:02,444 Speaker 1: So it seems like what you're saying, and this is 192 00:10:02,484 --> 00:10:06,204 Speaker 1: also me being biased as someone who plays poker and 193 00:10:06,244 --> 00:10:13,844 Speaker 1: doesn't play chess, but it seems like poker is a 194 00:10:13,884 --> 00:10:16,004 Speaker 1: better if we're trying. If we then go from the 195 00:10:16,044 --> 00:10:18,524 Speaker 1: world of games to the world of real life, it 196 00:10:18,564 --> 00:10:22,124 Speaker 1: seems like poker might be a better way of thinking 197 00:10:22,284 --> 00:10:26,204 Speaker 1: about risk and decision making as we interact with people 198 00:10:26,244 --> 00:10:28,724 Speaker 1: and make decisions away from the game table. 199 00:10:30,204 --> 00:10:34,244 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think poker does mirror life more than chess does, 200 00:10:34,404 --> 00:10:38,684 Speaker 3: partly because it's not fair. You know, there's some people 201 00:10:38,804 --> 00:10:41,324 Speaker 3: who get lucky. There's people who get lucky three or 202 00:10:41,364 --> 00:10:43,804 Speaker 3: four times in a row. There are people who start 203 00:10:43,804 --> 00:10:46,764 Speaker 3: out with the ability to rebuy, you know, over and 204 00:10:46,804 --> 00:10:49,324 Speaker 3: over again and keep buying into the game even if 205 00:10:49,324 --> 00:10:52,484 Speaker 3: they play badly or bust. So there's just a lot 206 00:10:52,484 --> 00:10:54,564 Speaker 3: of more similarities with life. And then the fact that 207 00:10:54,604 --> 00:10:57,884 Speaker 3: the currency of poker is money is chips, which stand 208 00:10:57,884 --> 00:11:01,964 Speaker 3: for money, and so much about life is what power 209 00:11:02,004 --> 00:11:03,684 Speaker 3: you have based on how much money you have and 210 00:11:03,684 --> 00:11:07,244 Speaker 3: how much capital you have. So for sure, I think 211 00:11:07,284 --> 00:11:10,244 Speaker 3: there are more like day to day decisions that you 212 00:11:10,284 --> 00:11:15,684 Speaker 3: can make from poker. That said, as a lifel chess player, 213 00:11:16,364 --> 00:11:18,444 Speaker 3: I have to give some shout outs to chests too, 214 00:11:18,444 --> 00:11:20,204 Speaker 3: because one of the beautiful things about chess is that 215 00:11:20,884 --> 00:11:22,164 Speaker 3: it does. 216 00:11:21,964 --> 00:11:24,084 Speaker 2: Bring you into this like beautiful flow state. 217 00:11:24,684 --> 00:11:26,964 Speaker 3: And that's really why I love chess for children too, 218 00:11:27,084 --> 00:11:30,444 Speaker 3: because you can see them kind of achieve that state 219 00:11:30,684 --> 00:11:34,284 Speaker 3: even at like six, seven, eight years old. And maybe 220 00:11:34,284 --> 00:11:36,164 Speaker 3: they're not going to be professional chess players, I mean, 221 00:11:36,324 --> 00:11:38,804 Speaker 3: very few of them will, but my hope is always 222 00:11:38,924 --> 00:11:41,164 Speaker 3: that they'll remember that flow state and be able to 223 00:11:41,244 --> 00:11:43,884 Speaker 3: kind of, you know, jump into that in other parts 224 00:11:43,884 --> 00:11:46,564 Speaker 3: of their lives and just like forget about everything else 225 00:11:46,604 --> 00:11:49,284 Speaker 3: that is going on and just, you know, enjoy the moment. 226 00:11:49,604 --> 00:11:54,844 Speaker 1: So I think that that's an interesting thing about about 227 00:11:54,924 --> 00:11:57,844 Speaker 1: chess versus poker that I hadn't really thought about, because 228 00:11:57,884 --> 00:12:00,004 Speaker 1: for me, you know, poker is a way that I've 229 00:12:00,004 --> 00:12:03,404 Speaker 1: actually been able to achieve flow states quite often because 230 00:12:03,404 --> 00:12:05,964 Speaker 1: when you're really in the zone. Since it's the only 231 00:12:06,084 --> 00:12:08,324 Speaker 1: game I play, it's the only time that kind of 232 00:12:08,404 --> 00:12:12,564 Speaker 1: I've found myself in that sort of situation. When did 233 00:12:12,644 --> 00:12:15,084 Speaker 1: you make the switch from chess to poker. Obviously you've 234 00:12:15,084 --> 00:12:18,244 Speaker 1: never switched entirely, you still play chess, but in terms 235 00:12:18,364 --> 00:12:22,884 Speaker 1: of kind of your interest, when did you start migrating 236 00:12:22,924 --> 00:12:23,604 Speaker 1: in that direction? 237 00:12:24,484 --> 00:12:25,644 Speaker 2: You know, it was kind of gradual. 238 00:12:25,804 --> 00:12:29,404 Speaker 3: My brother got into poker, and I was dabbling in 239 00:12:29,444 --> 00:12:31,764 Speaker 3: it via him and some of my other chess friends, 240 00:12:31,804 --> 00:12:34,564 Speaker 3: because at the time of the poker boom, a lot 241 00:12:34,604 --> 00:12:38,724 Speaker 3: of chess players, backgammon players, anyone who really had an 242 00:12:38,724 --> 00:12:41,004 Speaker 3: interest in any kind of game were flocking to poker 243 00:12:41,044 --> 00:12:44,684 Speaker 3: because they thought, honestly, it was easy money. And it's 244 00:12:44,724 --> 00:12:47,124 Speaker 3: funny because I was a little slow to the game 245 00:12:47,164 --> 00:12:50,844 Speaker 3: compared to them, And I remember my mother, who was 246 00:12:51,044 --> 00:12:54,124 Speaker 3: the stone opposite of all my other poker friends' moms, 247 00:12:54,444 --> 00:12:56,244 Speaker 3: because she she called me once and she. 248 00:12:56,284 --> 00:12:58,244 Speaker 2: Was like, Jen, why aren't you playing more poker like 249 00:12:58,324 --> 00:12:59,804 Speaker 2: your friends? What's going on? 250 00:13:00,604 --> 00:13:01,124 Speaker 1: I love that? 251 00:13:03,404 --> 00:13:06,124 Speaker 3: And so yeah, but I finally did take her advice 252 00:13:06,204 --> 00:13:07,684 Speaker 3: and I got a bit more into it. 253 00:13:08,604 --> 00:13:09,244 Speaker 2: But you know, I always have. 254 00:13:09,564 --> 00:13:11,044 Speaker 3: I think one of the issues that it's a little 255 00:13:11,084 --> 00:13:14,124 Speaker 3: underestimated and poker is that it's really important to have, 256 00:13:14,324 --> 00:13:16,484 Speaker 3: especially if you want to play live poker, and in 257 00:13:16,724 --> 00:13:19,484 Speaker 3: the United States right now, unfortunately, there's not a lot 258 00:13:19,524 --> 00:13:22,164 Speaker 3: of regulated places that you can play online. You really 259 00:13:22,204 --> 00:13:26,124 Speaker 3: need a decent chunk of money. It's not that easy 260 00:13:26,244 --> 00:13:28,964 Speaker 3: to get in there. I mean, it's it's probably better 261 00:13:29,004 --> 00:13:30,964 Speaker 3: than most games because you can kind of hang out 262 00:13:31,004 --> 00:13:33,964 Speaker 3: and you know, spend go to like the UH one 263 00:13:34,084 --> 00:13:37,604 Speaker 3: two or one three tables, like the lower poker table, 264 00:13:37,804 --> 00:13:41,644 Speaker 3: the lowest buy in that you can find in Vegas 265 00:13:41,684 --> 00:13:43,804 Speaker 3: or Atlantic City, and you can maybe have a few 266 00:13:43,804 --> 00:13:45,844 Speaker 3: hours of entertainment for a couple hundred bucks. 267 00:13:46,204 --> 00:13:49,764 Speaker 2: But overall, like it's an expensive hobby. 268 00:13:49,764 --> 00:13:52,164 Speaker 3: I would say, so that that's probably why it took 269 00:13:52,164 --> 00:13:54,004 Speaker 3: me a little while to get more into it. 270 00:13:54,484 --> 00:13:58,164 Speaker 1: So your son plays chess, right now, but not poker, correct. 271 00:13:58,484 --> 00:14:01,004 Speaker 3: Right, that's right. But he loves he loves watching poker. 272 00:14:01,124 --> 00:14:03,164 Speaker 3: You're you're one of his favorite players. He likes, he 273 00:14:03,324 --> 00:14:07,164 Speaker 3: likes you, Maria Hoe and chuannlu and well, of course me. 274 00:14:07,764 --> 00:14:13,484 Speaker 3: So it's all about the top of women buyers. I love. 275 00:14:13,564 --> 00:14:16,484 Speaker 1: I love that it's so female centric because that's actually 276 00:14:16,764 --> 00:14:19,364 Speaker 1: that's so important, and you know, that's it's a really 277 00:14:19,404 --> 00:14:23,044 Speaker 1: wonderful thing to see that women can also excel in 278 00:14:23,364 --> 00:14:27,764 Speaker 1: a game that is so incredibly male dominated. When he 279 00:14:27,924 --> 00:14:31,324 Speaker 1: watches poker, is he interested in the strategic elements? Is 280 00:14:31,364 --> 00:14:33,604 Speaker 1: he thinking of it kind of in the same terms 281 00:14:33,604 --> 00:14:35,444 Speaker 1: that you've taught him to think about chess. 282 00:14:36,804 --> 00:14:39,444 Speaker 3: Yeah, but I find that kids it's harder for them 283 00:14:39,444 --> 00:14:42,684 Speaker 3: to understand poker than chess, even though you know, technically 284 00:14:42,684 --> 00:14:45,164 Speaker 3: it probably is easier to teach an adult the roles 285 00:14:45,204 --> 00:14:47,604 Speaker 3: of poker than the roles of chess, partly because kids 286 00:14:47,644 --> 00:14:51,204 Speaker 3: don't usually know that much about about money, and I 287 00:14:51,244 --> 00:14:53,964 Speaker 3: think also the probabilistic thinking is pretty tricky for them 288 00:14:53,964 --> 00:14:57,164 Speaker 3: as well. So, yeah, he's definitely looking to see what 289 00:14:57,204 --> 00:14:59,804 Speaker 3: people have and whether they're going to make their hand. 290 00:14:59,964 --> 00:15:03,884 Speaker 2: But I wouldn't say it comes supernaturally to kids. 291 00:15:04,724 --> 00:15:07,124 Speaker 1: And I think that that's a really crucial point because 292 00:15:07,124 --> 00:15:08,964 Speaker 1: one of the things that I love about pokers that 293 00:15:09,004 --> 00:15:12,004 Speaker 1: it does each probabilistic thinking, which is something that does 294 00:15:12,084 --> 00:15:15,044 Speaker 1: not come naturally to the human brain at all. Right, 295 00:15:15,124 --> 00:15:19,964 Speaker 1: we are so bad at calculating risk, at calculating probabilities, 296 00:15:20,004 --> 00:15:23,524 Speaker 1: at thinking in that way. It's just not something that 297 00:15:24,244 --> 00:15:31,684 Speaker 1: comes naturally at all to the human mind. We'll be 298 00:15:31,724 --> 00:15:47,724 Speaker 1: back in a minute now, switching away from kind of 299 00:15:47,764 --> 00:15:51,124 Speaker 1: you as gamer, and you now kind of in your 300 00:15:51,204 --> 00:15:54,684 Speaker 1: professional life, so you are a writer as well. You're 301 00:15:55,124 --> 00:16:00,404 Speaker 1: someone who's been involved professionally in chess organizations, in teaching 302 00:16:00,444 --> 00:16:04,004 Speaker 1: and mentoring women in all of these things. How has 303 00:16:04,084 --> 00:16:08,364 Speaker 1: your thinking about risk, about risk taking migrated over from 304 00:16:08,444 --> 00:16:10,844 Speaker 1: the fact that you you up kind of trained in 305 00:16:10,924 --> 00:16:14,244 Speaker 1: this game's way of thinking, and how has it not? 306 00:16:14,684 --> 00:16:17,764 Speaker 1: Because I think that you obviously hear both perspectives, right. 307 00:16:17,764 --> 00:16:19,804 Speaker 1: You hear the people who say, oh, you know, chess, poker, 308 00:16:19,804 --> 00:16:22,524 Speaker 1: et cetera. They really helped me and they helped me 309 00:16:22,564 --> 00:16:24,844 Speaker 1: make decisions. And then there are some people and maybe 310 00:16:24,844 --> 00:16:26,884 Speaker 1: they wouldn't say it, but I know some poker players 311 00:16:26,884 --> 00:16:29,164 Speaker 1: who are really good at poker and then just so 312 00:16:29,164 --> 00:16:32,004 Speaker 1: so dumb away from the poker table. So I I'd 313 00:16:32,084 --> 00:16:35,164 Speaker 1: love to hear how you think about it and kind 314 00:16:35,164 --> 00:16:39,284 Speaker 1: of how your non poker life, non chess life has evolved. 315 00:16:40,084 --> 00:16:43,524 Speaker 3: Oh, poker, absolutely, I'll start with poker because it's like 316 00:16:43,604 --> 00:16:47,044 Speaker 3: more forefront of my mind. Poker absolutely helped me because 317 00:16:47,084 --> 00:16:50,524 Speaker 3: I never took a finance class or an econ class, 318 00:16:50,644 --> 00:16:53,084 Speaker 3: and I really feel like poker is just like a 319 00:16:53,124 --> 00:16:57,124 Speaker 3: miniature lesson in finance, and just even the idea that 320 00:16:57,164 --> 00:16:59,644 Speaker 3: if you just put your money in a checking account 321 00:16:59,684 --> 00:17:02,084 Speaker 3: and don't do anything to it, you're technically losing money 322 00:17:02,124 --> 00:17:05,044 Speaker 3: because of inflation. I mean, poker teaches you that very quickly, 323 00:17:05,084 --> 00:17:08,284 Speaker 3: because you got annie and so the annies go up 324 00:17:08,524 --> 00:17:11,764 Speaker 3: as the turn of it progresses, So you will lose 325 00:17:11,804 --> 00:17:12,324 Speaker 3: money if you. 326 00:17:12,244 --> 00:17:13,004 Speaker 2: Don't do anything. 327 00:17:13,564 --> 00:17:16,964 Speaker 3: And I just love that analogy because I feel that 328 00:17:17,484 --> 00:17:21,404 Speaker 3: you feel it very viscerally. If you play poker in 329 00:17:21,404 --> 00:17:24,124 Speaker 3: a few tournaments and you don't play enough hands, you 330 00:17:24,164 --> 00:17:27,124 Speaker 3: lose your money slowly. You play too many hands, you 331 00:17:27,204 --> 00:17:30,404 Speaker 3: lose your money quickly. I mean, what better metaphor there 332 00:17:30,484 --> 00:17:33,604 Speaker 3: is there for like investing wisely? I can't think of one. 333 00:17:35,964 --> 00:17:38,644 Speaker 1: Did do you feel like you have a higher risk tolerance, 334 00:17:38,684 --> 00:17:40,804 Speaker 1: because obviously you know, as a fellow writer, I know 335 00:17:40,844 --> 00:17:45,364 Speaker 1: that writing books has a huge risk, both financially and personally, 336 00:17:45,404 --> 00:17:48,164 Speaker 1: because you're putting yourself out there. Do you think that 337 00:17:48,244 --> 00:17:51,284 Speaker 1: you were prepared more prepared to do that because you 338 00:17:51,364 --> 00:17:53,164 Speaker 1: understand the way that risk works. 339 00:17:53,804 --> 00:17:54,564 Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. 340 00:17:54,564 --> 00:17:57,764 Speaker 3: I also started to understand, especially with bluffing, that if 341 00:17:57,804 --> 00:18:02,044 Speaker 3: you in poker are never getting called and realizing that 342 00:18:02,284 --> 00:18:05,084 Speaker 3: you know, hey, you've got it high, that you're actually 343 00:18:05,124 --> 00:18:07,524 Speaker 3: not bluffing enough. And so I started to realize that 344 00:18:07,564 --> 00:18:09,564 Speaker 3: maybe in life I wasn't taking enough risks because I 345 00:18:09,644 --> 00:18:12,884 Speaker 3: wasn't getting told no enough. That people were too happy 346 00:18:12,924 --> 00:18:15,004 Speaker 3: with me all the time. If people are always happy 347 00:18:15,044 --> 00:18:17,604 Speaker 3: with you, it means that maybe you're not asking for enough, 348 00:18:17,644 --> 00:18:20,164 Speaker 3: You're not putting enough pressure on them, You're not asking 349 00:18:20,164 --> 00:18:22,604 Speaker 3: for enough money, you're not getting told no that is 350 00:18:22,644 --> 00:18:26,684 Speaker 3: too high. And so I definitely figure that out from poker, 351 00:18:26,724 --> 00:18:28,044 Speaker 3: and I think that that's a lesson that a lot 352 00:18:28,084 --> 00:18:29,444 Speaker 3: of women have to learn from poker. 353 00:18:31,004 --> 00:18:35,884 Speaker 1: I'd love to actually talk about that a little bit. Obviously, 354 00:18:36,284 --> 00:18:39,484 Speaker 1: poker is an incredibly male dominated area, and chess is 355 00:18:39,524 --> 00:18:46,644 Speaker 1: also an incredibly male dominated area. Now, when you start 356 00:18:46,684 --> 00:18:51,044 Speaker 1: negotiating while female, right, it's like driving well drunk negotiating 357 00:18:51,044 --> 00:18:54,404 Speaker 1: well female. I'm using that. I'm using that language on 358 00:18:54,444 --> 00:18:58,964 Speaker 1: purpose because it's a very very different beast and I 359 00:18:59,284 --> 00:19:02,524 Speaker 1: found that. You know, I was horrible at negotiating pre poker, 360 00:19:03,364 --> 00:19:07,964 Speaker 1: and I am much better at negotiating now than I 361 00:19:08,004 --> 00:19:11,124 Speaker 1: ever was before. But you still get penalized for trying 362 00:19:11,164 --> 00:19:14,684 Speaker 1: to ask for more, for trying to actually get what 363 00:19:14,684 --> 00:19:18,484 Speaker 1: you're worth as a woman, because the exact same tactics 364 00:19:18,524 --> 00:19:20,324 Speaker 1: and this is true at the poker table too, that 365 00:19:20,404 --> 00:19:22,604 Speaker 1: work for men don't work for women. You know, if 366 00:19:22,604 --> 00:19:24,444 Speaker 1: I try to be as aggressive as you know some 367 00:19:24,484 --> 00:19:26,564 Speaker 1: of the best male players, that might not work for 368 00:19:26,604 --> 00:19:28,364 Speaker 1: me in the same way that it works for them. 369 00:19:28,724 --> 00:19:31,084 Speaker 1: These are all things that you have to consider because 370 00:19:31,724 --> 00:19:35,164 Speaker 1: decision making here isn't existing in a vacuum. You know, 371 00:19:35,204 --> 00:19:37,524 Speaker 1: when you're making decisions and you're female and you're perceived 372 00:19:37,564 --> 00:19:40,244 Speaker 1: as female, that's very different than when you're making decisions 373 00:19:40,244 --> 00:19:41,724 Speaker 1: as a man and being perceived as a man. 374 00:19:42,524 --> 00:19:45,004 Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I mean I think that's the reality, is 375 00:19:45,044 --> 00:19:47,124 Speaker 3: that it's logical a lot of times for women to 376 00:19:47,164 --> 00:19:50,924 Speaker 3: be less risky, and that's what we need to change. 377 00:19:51,004 --> 00:19:53,084 Speaker 3: We need to change the circumstances so that they can 378 00:19:53,124 --> 00:19:57,004 Speaker 3: take more risks wisely, because if you're going to be 379 00:19:57,044 --> 00:20:01,244 Speaker 3: penalized if you take risk, if there's no childcare, if 380 00:20:01,244 --> 00:20:05,964 Speaker 3: there's no you know, policies for women who leave the workplace, 381 00:20:05,964 --> 00:20:07,684 Speaker 3: if they don't have as much capital, if their wages 382 00:20:07,684 --> 00:20:09,884 Speaker 3: are lower, then actually it's really small art for them 383 00:20:09,884 --> 00:20:12,764 Speaker 3: to be risk of ours, right, And so I do 384 00:20:12,804 --> 00:20:14,884 Speaker 3: think it's not about telling women you should. 385 00:20:14,684 --> 00:20:16,124 Speaker 2: Take more risks. That's only part of it. 386 00:20:16,324 --> 00:20:18,284 Speaker 3: The other part of it is how do we create 387 00:20:18,724 --> 00:20:20,564 Speaker 3: a circumstance where they can take more risk. 388 00:20:21,724 --> 00:20:24,604 Speaker 1: I think that's a really really important point. And Nate 389 00:20:24,644 --> 00:20:28,444 Speaker 1: and I, on actually the first ever episode of Risky Business, 390 00:20:28,444 --> 00:20:33,124 Speaker 1: talked about the gender paid gap and how a lot 391 00:20:33,164 --> 00:20:35,764 Speaker 1: of that is because women have to make different decisions, 392 00:20:35,804 --> 00:20:39,164 Speaker 1: different choices, because women are penalized for having children, that 393 00:20:39,204 --> 00:20:41,604 Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that society just isn't 394 00:20:41,604 --> 00:20:46,244 Speaker 1: equipped for when it comes to negotiating well, female, deciding well, female, 395 00:20:46,644 --> 00:20:47,764 Speaker 1: working well female. 396 00:20:48,884 --> 00:20:50,724 Speaker 3: Absolutely, and I did listen to that episode, and I 397 00:20:50,724 --> 00:20:52,764 Speaker 3: also really like the part in your book the Biggest 398 00:20:52,764 --> 00:20:55,164 Speaker 3: Bluff where you talk about how you raised your speaker rate, 399 00:20:55,324 --> 00:20:58,164 Speaker 3: and I believe you got an immediate yes. So it 400 00:20:58,284 --> 00:21:01,244 Speaker 3: turned out that risk was one that worked out very 401 00:21:01,324 --> 00:21:03,564 Speaker 3: much in your favor. But I'm sure occasionally you asked 402 00:21:03,604 --> 00:21:05,924 Speaker 3: for so much they said they said no, and you 403 00:21:06,004 --> 00:21:08,284 Speaker 3: had to enjoy that experience because it was part of 404 00:21:08,444 --> 00:21:11,444 Speaker 3: you raising your rates for that Occasionally you get. 405 00:21:11,244 --> 00:21:14,484 Speaker 1: To know, right, that's absolutely right. I think you have 406 00:21:14,564 --> 00:21:17,364 Speaker 1: to become more comfortable with hearing no and with saying 407 00:21:17,364 --> 00:21:19,804 Speaker 1: you know what, that's fine because this is what I'm 408 00:21:19,804 --> 00:21:22,004 Speaker 1: worth and if you don't want to pay me that 409 00:21:22,044 --> 00:21:25,964 Speaker 1: then then that's okay. And learning how to walk away 410 00:21:26,004 --> 00:21:27,804 Speaker 1: as I think a skill that I learned from the 411 00:21:27,804 --> 00:21:28,684 Speaker 1: poker table as. 412 00:21:28,604 --> 00:21:33,804 Speaker 3: Well, absolutely super important. And I think even so through 413 00:21:33,804 --> 00:21:36,564 Speaker 3: all that, I think I am still pretty risk averse 414 00:21:36,604 --> 00:21:39,924 Speaker 3: in a few things like I am going to show 415 00:21:39,924 --> 00:21:42,604 Speaker 3: off at the airport two and a half hours and 416 00:21:42,644 --> 00:21:44,524 Speaker 3: if I'm only two hours early, I get a little 417 00:21:44,524 --> 00:21:45,324 Speaker 3: bit stressed out. 418 00:21:45,964 --> 00:21:46,924 Speaker 2: So you know. 419 00:21:48,644 --> 00:21:51,684 Speaker 1: That is funny. I'm planning a trip to the airport 420 00:21:52,524 --> 00:21:54,884 Speaker 1: and it's an international trip, and I'm trying to figure out, 421 00:21:54,884 --> 00:21:57,244 Speaker 1: if you know, if I'm going to be pushing it 422 00:21:57,244 --> 00:21:59,844 Speaker 1: if I arrive with an hour to spare, if that's 423 00:21:59,884 --> 00:22:00,724 Speaker 1: going to be okay. 424 00:22:02,364 --> 00:22:02,644 Speaker 2: Yeah. 425 00:22:02,804 --> 00:22:05,724 Speaker 3: Yeah, And there's that saying that if you're always if 426 00:22:05,764 --> 00:22:07,844 Speaker 3: you're always on time for flights and you're not missing 427 00:22:07,844 --> 00:22:08,444 Speaker 3: it off flights. 428 00:22:08,684 --> 00:22:09,924 Speaker 2: I'm not sure I really buy that. 429 00:22:10,244 --> 00:22:15,724 Speaker 1: No, it took me missing one very important flight for 430 00:22:15,804 --> 00:22:18,964 Speaker 1: me to never never take that saying seriously. But I 431 00:22:19,004 --> 00:22:21,924 Speaker 1: probably have a slightly higher risk tolerance in flights than you, 432 00:22:22,484 --> 00:22:26,124 Speaker 1: so that'll be an individual difference. I do want to 433 00:22:26,164 --> 00:22:28,564 Speaker 1: talk about since we are now talking about kind of 434 00:22:28,604 --> 00:22:31,804 Speaker 1: being female in a world of men and the decisions 435 00:22:31,844 --> 00:22:38,284 Speaker 1: that that women make in light of recent remarks by 436 00:22:38,364 --> 00:22:44,884 Speaker 1: Andrew Huberman about women's pregnancies and some pretty fundamental misunderstanding 437 00:22:44,964 --> 00:22:48,884 Speaker 1: of how probabilities work. I you know, I'd love for 438 00:22:48,924 --> 00:22:51,764 Speaker 1: you to just kind of recount that a little bit. 439 00:22:51,924 --> 00:22:54,284 Speaker 1: But it also reminded me of an abed that you 440 00:22:54,324 --> 00:22:57,244 Speaker 1: wrote for The Wall Street Journal where you were correctly 441 00:22:57,444 --> 00:22:59,884 Speaker 1: calculating similar probabilities about childbirth. 442 00:23:01,124 --> 00:23:01,364 Speaker 2: Yeah. 443 00:23:01,404 --> 00:23:02,844 Speaker 3: So I think it was a few weeks ago that 444 00:23:03,004 --> 00:23:05,884 Speaker 3: Uberman put out Its actually was on his podcast, so 445 00:23:06,364 --> 00:23:10,124 Speaker 3: it went viral on Twitter. But doctor Kuberman had podcast 446 00:23:10,204 --> 00:23:12,204 Speaker 3: where he was talking about the chances of a woman 447 00:23:12,644 --> 00:23:17,364 Speaker 3: getting pregnant after six cycles, and well, he said, well, 448 00:23:17,444 --> 00:23:21,964 Speaker 3: it should be twenty percent the first time, right, and 449 00:23:22,004 --> 00:23:24,564 Speaker 3: then twenty percent the second time, So then forty percent 450 00:23:24,644 --> 00:23:27,044 Speaker 3: that you'd be pregnant by month two, and then sixty 451 00:23:27,084 --> 00:23:30,644 Speaker 3: percent that you'd be pregnant by month three, eighty percent 452 00:23:30,684 --> 00:23:33,564 Speaker 3: by month four, and then one hundred percent chances that 453 00:23:33,644 --> 00:23:37,404 Speaker 3: she will be pregnant by month five. Right, And I think, 454 00:23:37,444 --> 00:23:39,964 Speaker 3: then I don't know what happens on month six. I 455 00:23:39,964 --> 00:23:45,484 Speaker 3: guess the incident. Okay, oh yes, because of course there's 456 00:23:45,524 --> 00:23:46,964 Speaker 3: like a chance that you'd have twins. 457 00:23:47,044 --> 00:23:48,684 Speaker 2: So that's where the twenty percent consent. 458 00:23:50,884 --> 00:23:55,284 Speaker 3: And well, he got like, predictably, you know, a crush 459 00:23:55,404 --> 00:23:58,164 Speaker 3: for this tweet, Like it must have had like thousands 460 00:23:58,204 --> 00:24:01,644 Speaker 3: and thousands of quote tweets making fun of his incorrect math, 461 00:24:01,844 --> 00:24:05,204 Speaker 3: and some people would would correctly state it, and to 462 00:24:05,244 --> 00:24:08,324 Speaker 3: his credit, he did. He retracted it and explained what 463 00:24:08,404 --> 00:24:11,044 Speaker 3: he got wrong, and he did it in a nice way. 464 00:24:11,084 --> 00:24:13,004 Speaker 3: And I was actually really happy to see it because 465 00:24:13,284 --> 00:24:15,124 Speaker 3: I was like, oh, this is a great learning opportunity 466 00:24:15,164 --> 00:24:16,924 Speaker 3: because this has gone viral that this is not the 467 00:24:16,964 --> 00:24:19,884 Speaker 3: way to calculate probability, because I have to tell you, 468 00:24:19,924 --> 00:24:21,884 Speaker 3: before I played poker and before I tried to get pregnant, 469 00:24:22,084 --> 00:24:23,844 Speaker 3: I don't think I knew exactly the correct way to 470 00:24:23,844 --> 00:24:25,604 Speaker 3: set this up either. I mean, I've probably learned it 471 00:24:25,604 --> 00:24:27,884 Speaker 3: in like middle school or high school math, but I 472 00:24:27,884 --> 00:24:30,044 Speaker 3: don't know if I remembered it until a little later, 473 00:24:30,244 --> 00:24:33,644 Speaker 3: until college, or even when I learned poker. So I 474 00:24:33,684 --> 00:24:35,564 Speaker 3: think there's a lot of people out there who also 475 00:24:35,644 --> 00:24:37,884 Speaker 3: didn't know, because it seems like, yeah. 476 00:24:37,764 --> 00:24:40,244 Speaker 2: Why wouldn't you just add up the probabilities. 477 00:24:39,644 --> 00:24:42,644 Speaker 3: Right, But what you really need to do is multiply 478 00:24:42,724 --> 00:24:44,604 Speaker 3: the chance of me not pregnant a month one that's 479 00:24:44,644 --> 00:24:47,724 Speaker 3: eighty percent, and then the second month is also eighty percent, 480 00:24:48,244 --> 00:24:52,004 Speaker 3: and then you get sixty four and then minus that 481 00:24:52,164 --> 00:24:52,964 Speaker 3: from one and. 482 00:24:52,924 --> 00:24:54,164 Speaker 2: You get thirty six percent. 483 00:24:54,404 --> 00:24:57,844 Speaker 3: Right, so that's my actual chance of pregnancy, and then 484 00:24:57,964 --> 00:25:01,724 Speaker 3: it gets it continues on, and yeah, it's a bit 485 00:25:01,724 --> 00:25:05,244 Speaker 3: frustrating because it means that your chances are actually lower 486 00:25:05,284 --> 00:25:09,084 Speaker 3: than it would seem because you aren't more likely to 487 00:25:09,084 --> 00:25:12,844 Speaker 3: get lucky just because you got unlucky the first time. 488 00:25:13,044 --> 00:25:17,004 Speaker 3: It's basically a version of the gambler's fallacy, right that 489 00:25:17,404 --> 00:25:21,644 Speaker 3: if you are healthy and there's no like medical reason 490 00:25:21,684 --> 00:25:23,724 Speaker 3: for you not to be able to get pregnant. If 491 00:25:23,724 --> 00:25:26,884 Speaker 3: you've got an unlucky the first four cycles and tough luck, 492 00:25:27,244 --> 00:25:30,244 Speaker 3: you know you're still only got a twenty percent chance. Sorry, 493 00:25:30,804 --> 00:25:32,804 Speaker 3: And we know that from poker, right, Like you could 494 00:25:32,804 --> 00:25:36,804 Speaker 3: lose your hand where you're a fifty to fifty chance 495 00:25:36,844 --> 00:25:39,204 Speaker 3: to win five times in a row and you're still 496 00:25:39,284 --> 00:25:41,844 Speaker 3: fifty to fifty on that six chance. And it's very 497 00:25:41,884 --> 00:25:44,764 Speaker 3: frustrating if you're getting unlucky, and it's super awesome if 498 00:25:44,804 --> 00:25:48,884 Speaker 3: you're getting lucky, right. And I had personal experience on 499 00:25:48,924 --> 00:25:53,524 Speaker 3: this in both sides. So with my son Fabian, who 500 00:25:53,524 --> 00:25:57,724 Speaker 3: I mentioned earlier, I got lucky on the second try. 501 00:25:58,404 --> 00:26:02,684 Speaker 3: So my husband and I we got pregnant almost immediately 502 00:26:03,404 --> 00:26:06,244 Speaker 3: and it was a healthy pregnancy. It was an awesome pregnancy. 503 00:26:06,444 --> 00:26:09,564 Speaker 3: Everything went perfectly. And so I'm like the person who 504 00:26:09,644 --> 00:26:12,564 Speaker 3: just starts playing poker and wins their first tournament, I'm like, 505 00:26:12,924 --> 00:26:17,164 Speaker 3: and I know this is very sensitive subject. So you know, 506 00:26:18,164 --> 00:26:21,084 Speaker 3: to anybody who finds this very sensitive, you know, to 507 00:26:21,164 --> 00:26:23,204 Speaker 3: feel free to pause and come back to the next section. 508 00:26:24,244 --> 00:26:26,924 Speaker 3: But I, as a poker player and somebody who struggles 509 00:26:26,964 --> 00:26:28,764 Speaker 3: with this. It actually helped me to think about in 510 00:26:28,804 --> 00:26:32,284 Speaker 3: these terms. It could seem craven to other people, but 511 00:26:32,484 --> 00:26:35,684 Speaker 3: I got super lucky, and then I had, of course 512 00:26:35,724 --> 00:26:37,684 Speaker 3: an inflated sense of confidence that when I tried a 513 00:26:37,724 --> 00:26:41,004 Speaker 3: couple years later, I would probably get lucky again, and 514 00:26:41,164 --> 00:26:43,124 Speaker 3: unfortunately that was not the case. 515 00:26:43,204 --> 00:26:45,044 Speaker 2: And this is more common than people think. 516 00:26:45,044 --> 00:26:48,284 Speaker 3: It's called secondary infertility, where you have an easy time 517 00:26:48,324 --> 00:26:50,564 Speaker 3: the first time, but then the second time you don't. 518 00:26:50,684 --> 00:26:54,564 Speaker 3: You don't get there to use a poker expression, And 519 00:26:54,684 --> 00:26:58,084 Speaker 3: when I finally did get pregnant, unfortunately, I had a 520 00:26:58,084 --> 00:27:00,004 Speaker 3: pretty pretty late miscarriage. 521 00:27:00,084 --> 00:27:03,764 Speaker 2: So yeah, it was, it was. It was a real nightmare. 522 00:27:04,444 --> 00:27:08,444 Speaker 3: And I think that the experience of poker did help 523 00:27:08,524 --> 00:27:12,524 Speaker 3: me because it taught me that I still had made 524 00:27:12,804 --> 00:27:14,604 Speaker 3: some really good logical decisions. 525 00:27:14,644 --> 00:27:15,724 Speaker 2: And like my husband and. 526 00:27:15,604 --> 00:27:18,084 Speaker 3: I trying to get pregnant, and in most universes we 527 00:27:18,124 --> 00:27:19,804 Speaker 3: would have had our two kids, but it just didn't 528 00:27:19,804 --> 00:27:22,004 Speaker 3: work out in the one that we live because of 529 00:27:22,524 --> 00:27:24,964 Speaker 3: the math going against us and us being in that 530 00:27:25,044 --> 00:27:27,244 Speaker 3: kind of like unlucky category. 531 00:27:27,924 --> 00:27:30,804 Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much for sharing that, and you know, 532 00:27:30,924 --> 00:27:33,364 Speaker 1: I'm so I'm really sorry that you had to go 533 00:27:33,404 --> 00:27:38,564 Speaker 1: through that experience. It's obviously, you know, a very emotional 534 00:27:38,604 --> 00:27:43,244 Speaker 1: experience to have, and I really appreciate you sharing that 535 00:27:43,324 --> 00:27:46,484 Speaker 1: because I do think that you know, it's important for 536 00:27:46,484 --> 00:27:48,884 Speaker 1: people to hear it, but it's also important to just 537 00:27:49,044 --> 00:27:53,204 Speaker 1: viscerally understand how probabilities work, and that's the world right. 538 00:27:53,284 --> 00:27:57,884 Speaker 1: Probabilities are not correctly quote unquote distributed. They're not as 539 00:27:57,924 --> 00:28:02,324 Speaker 1: pretty as you think they're going to be. And you know, 540 00:28:02,364 --> 00:28:04,444 Speaker 1: nothing ever adds up to one hundred percent somehow, you 541 00:28:04,484 --> 00:28:08,004 Speaker 1: always have those missing percents somewhere that go into another 542 00:28:08,564 --> 00:28:10,644 Speaker 1: universe where something else happened. 543 00:28:11,804 --> 00:28:14,484 Speaker 3: Absolutely, and I think it's really important for people to 544 00:28:14,484 --> 00:28:15,964 Speaker 3: be aware of that, because I don't think I was 545 00:28:15,964 --> 00:28:17,884 Speaker 3: fully aware of that. Like I certainly glanced at some 546 00:28:17,884 --> 00:28:21,204 Speaker 3: of these charts earlier in life, but I don't think 547 00:28:21,204 --> 00:28:25,044 Speaker 3: I was appreciated the odds of miscarriage, and being that 548 00:28:25,084 --> 00:28:26,844 Speaker 3: I'm somebody who likes to show up at the airport 549 00:28:26,884 --> 00:28:29,804 Speaker 3: three hours early. I do think that I probably would 550 00:28:29,844 --> 00:28:32,204 Speaker 3: have started a family a little bit earlier if I 551 00:28:32,244 --> 00:28:34,684 Speaker 3: had been as aware. So I like that people are 552 00:28:34,724 --> 00:28:38,084 Speaker 3: being educated at it now. I'm very much a feminist, 553 00:28:38,164 --> 00:28:40,764 Speaker 3: and so I think it's a completely awesome choice for 554 00:28:40,804 --> 00:28:43,244 Speaker 3: people to have one child, to have no children. But 555 00:28:43,364 --> 00:28:45,324 Speaker 3: what bothers me is the idea that there's somebody who 556 00:28:45,364 --> 00:28:48,484 Speaker 3: wants children's but isn't really acquainted with the math, and 557 00:28:48,524 --> 00:28:53,164 Speaker 3: then you know, has to struggle financially and emotionally through 558 00:28:53,204 --> 00:28:55,164 Speaker 3: this kind of you know, turmoil. 559 00:28:55,364 --> 00:28:57,724 Speaker 2: And if doctor Humerman is getting it wrong them, I can. 560 00:28:57,604 --> 00:28:59,884 Speaker 3: Tell you there's a lot of women's in their twenties 561 00:28:59,924 --> 00:29:02,964 Speaker 3: thirties who are men too, who were married to women 562 00:29:02,964 --> 00:29:05,204 Speaker 3: and they want to have kids with like that don't 563 00:29:05,244 --> 00:29:07,284 Speaker 3: know this math and you know, get hit by it 564 00:29:07,364 --> 00:29:09,324 Speaker 3: and are a little bit disappointed and strung. 565 00:29:09,924 --> 00:29:12,644 Speaker 2: And so, yeah, I was happy to see that. Fee. 566 00:29:13,084 --> 00:29:16,804 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, so PSA for people who like me have 567 00:29:16,884 --> 00:29:19,444 Speaker 1: always said I hate math and math is not important. 568 00:29:19,844 --> 00:29:24,044 Speaker 1: Math is really important and plays out in unexpected ways 569 00:29:24,084 --> 00:29:27,364 Speaker 1: in life decisions, throughout your life. And I took statistics 570 00:29:27,404 --> 00:29:29,884 Speaker 1: classes in grad school because I needed to, you know, 571 00:29:29,964 --> 00:29:32,964 Speaker 1: have statistical analysis when I was working on my dissertation, 572 00:29:33,644 --> 00:29:36,204 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But it never hit home in 573 00:29:36,324 --> 00:29:40,964 Speaker 1: kind of an actual practical way until I sat down 574 00:29:41,004 --> 00:29:44,404 Speaker 1: at a poker table and actually saw these probabilities at play, 575 00:29:44,724 --> 00:29:47,844 Speaker 1: actually experienced what it felt like to be, you know, 576 00:29:47,884 --> 00:29:50,404 Speaker 1: a seventy percent favorite ten times in a row and 577 00:29:50,484 --> 00:29:53,684 Speaker 1: lose every single time, and say, wait, how is that happening? 578 00:29:53,764 --> 00:29:57,964 Speaker 1: Right now you understand why all of these psychological fallacies exist. 579 00:29:59,204 --> 00:30:01,324 Speaker 3: And then also just being grateful for the times that 580 00:30:01,364 --> 00:30:04,204 Speaker 3: you're eighty percent hits. I think there's this feeling like, ah, yeah, 581 00:30:04,204 --> 00:30:06,324 Speaker 3: well I was supposed to win, so I won. But no, 582 00:30:06,404 --> 00:30:09,724 Speaker 3: I actually feel like gratitude when I, you know, have 583 00:30:10,404 --> 00:30:12,644 Speaker 3: like a pleasant trip to wherever I'm going to, I'm. 584 00:30:12,484 --> 00:30:16,164 Speaker 2: Like, wow, nothing went wrong, like ninety percent I got there. 585 00:30:16,404 --> 00:30:19,364 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's it's good, right, It's a good feeling 586 00:30:19,404 --> 00:30:20,404 Speaker 3: to appreciate that. 587 00:30:20,884 --> 00:30:23,004 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny that you say that. I'm so glad 588 00:30:23,084 --> 00:30:25,804 Speaker 1: you think about that as well, because whenever you know, 589 00:30:26,204 --> 00:30:28,684 Speaker 1: I'm all in and I have aces, I always and 590 00:30:28,924 --> 00:30:31,004 Speaker 1: this is totally irrational, but I give, like the poker 591 00:30:31,044 --> 00:30:33,164 Speaker 1: gods a little prayer, and so you know, I hope 592 00:30:33,204 --> 00:30:36,244 Speaker 1: it holds, right. I hope my ace is hold I 593 00:30:36,284 --> 00:30:40,564 Speaker 1: hope that my chance of winning actually ends up turning 594 00:30:40,604 --> 00:30:44,524 Speaker 1: into the outcome of winning. Because those two things are 595 00:30:44,564 --> 00:30:45,524 Speaker 1: not one and the same. 596 00:30:46,564 --> 00:30:50,364 Speaker 3: Absolutely. Yeah, appreciate every day that nothing goes horribly wrong. 597 00:30:50,484 --> 00:30:53,084 Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's a good way that you can 598 00:30:53,244 --> 00:30:55,284 Speaker 3: kind of become happier from poker. 599 00:30:55,924 --> 00:30:58,964 Speaker 1: Absolutely, it has made me a happier person because it's 600 00:30:58,964 --> 00:31:02,004 Speaker 1: made me able to let go of negative outcomes in 601 00:31:02,004 --> 00:31:04,844 Speaker 1: real life much more easily, because you know, it's just 602 00:31:04,844 --> 00:31:07,204 Speaker 1: a mindset of I can't control it. Did I make 603 00:31:07,244 --> 00:31:07,964 Speaker 1: the right decision? 604 00:31:08,124 --> 00:31:08,284 Speaker 2: Right? 605 00:31:08,404 --> 00:31:10,804 Speaker 1: Was I in eighty percent face? And then if it 606 00:31:10,844 --> 00:31:13,364 Speaker 1: didn't go my way, I didn't hold but but I 607 00:31:13,364 --> 00:31:15,644 Speaker 1: did the right thing. And sometimes that can be hard 608 00:31:15,684 --> 00:31:18,764 Speaker 1: in practice, but it's it's definitely become much easier for 609 00:31:18,804 --> 00:31:19,444 Speaker 1: me over time. 610 00:31:19,964 --> 00:31:21,084 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've noticed that about you. 611 00:31:21,084 --> 00:31:23,684 Speaker 3: You're very positive and like the things that you surround 612 00:31:23,724 --> 00:31:25,404 Speaker 3: yourself with and the things you talk about and the 613 00:31:25,444 --> 00:31:26,324 Speaker 3: people that. 614 00:31:26,204 --> 00:31:28,364 Speaker 2: You surround yourself with. 615 00:31:28,444 --> 00:31:30,444 Speaker 3: And I think that's like, you know that conscious choice 616 00:31:30,484 --> 00:31:33,124 Speaker 3: is so important because obviously you have to be aware 617 00:31:33,164 --> 00:31:36,164 Speaker 3: of negativity and bad outcomes, but you can control some 618 00:31:36,244 --> 00:31:38,884 Speaker 3: parts of it. And it seems like you've done like 619 00:31:39,044 --> 00:31:40,684 Speaker 3: a conscious job of that, Am I right? 620 00:31:41,524 --> 00:31:41,724 Speaker 2: Ah? 621 00:31:41,804 --> 00:31:44,444 Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I mean it has been a conscious choice 622 00:31:44,484 --> 00:31:46,804 Speaker 1: and I have called kind of the people that I 623 00:31:46,844 --> 00:31:50,244 Speaker 1: associate with, so that I only really try to spend 624 00:31:50,244 --> 00:31:52,364 Speaker 1: time with people who bring me joy and who put 625 00:31:52,404 --> 00:31:55,444 Speaker 1: me in a positive space, and I try to focus 626 00:31:55,444 --> 00:31:58,604 Speaker 1: on the positive elements because you know, the way that 627 00:31:58,724 --> 00:32:00,684 Speaker 1: I think about it is life's too short to dwell 628 00:32:00,684 --> 00:32:03,604 Speaker 1: on bad beats, and bad beats are going to happen. 629 00:32:03,964 --> 00:32:07,564 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're your first rule from Eric's sidel right, absolutely 630 00:32:07,724 --> 00:32:08,964 Speaker 3: bad beat stories. 631 00:32:10,084 --> 00:32:12,884 Speaker 1: Yes, that is correct, And for people who haven't read 632 00:32:12,924 --> 00:32:15,164 Speaker 1: the Biggest blow off Eric's Sidell is a poker legend 633 00:32:15,164 --> 00:32:19,564 Speaker 1: and was my coach and mentor from the movie Rounders. 634 00:32:20,804 --> 00:32:22,644 Speaker 3: But I feel like there's a life corollary for that 635 00:32:22,684 --> 00:32:24,564 Speaker 3: for people who don't play poker, Like I think a 636 00:32:24,684 --> 00:32:26,764 Speaker 3: really good one would be like a story about how 637 00:32:26,804 --> 00:32:31,124 Speaker 3: you mister flight, or you miss your train or your 638 00:32:31,164 --> 00:32:32,524 Speaker 3: travel was really unpleasant. 639 00:32:32,604 --> 00:32:33,924 Speaker 2: I feel like that's a kind of like a bad 640 00:32:33,924 --> 00:32:35,164 Speaker 2: beat story in a way. 641 00:32:35,844 --> 00:32:39,644 Speaker 3: Sometimes they're interesting, and occasionally bad beat stories are interesting too, 642 00:32:39,644 --> 00:32:41,404 Speaker 3: but I guess it's like the exception, not the rule. 643 00:32:42,204 --> 00:32:44,844 Speaker 1: I think you're absolutely right, and I think that something 644 00:32:44,844 --> 00:32:47,404 Speaker 1: that I actually learned from my mom that I've tried 645 00:32:47,404 --> 00:32:50,444 Speaker 1: to internalize and that you know, Eric, the no bad 646 00:32:50,444 --> 00:32:53,044 Speaker 1: beat stories for my whole life. She said, you know, 647 00:32:53,124 --> 00:32:56,364 Speaker 1: don't complain, right, don't try to blame other people when 648 00:32:56,404 --> 00:32:59,724 Speaker 1: things go wrong. Don't say, oh, well, you know, I 649 00:32:59,764 --> 00:33:02,284 Speaker 1: can't believe this person scheduled this year. I can't believe 650 00:33:02,324 --> 00:33:04,604 Speaker 1: this happened. I can't believe. Oh it's so unfair. She so, 651 00:33:04,764 --> 00:33:07,004 Speaker 1: don't do that, because you can't control it. You can't 652 00:33:07,004 --> 00:33:11,044 Speaker 1: control other people. So instead of blaming other people, just 653 00:33:11,044 --> 00:33:13,684 Speaker 1: take the blame on yourself and try to figure out 654 00:33:13,724 --> 00:33:16,524 Speaker 1: what can I do, what can I do differently next time, 655 00:33:16,564 --> 00:33:18,884 Speaker 1: and what can I do right now to mitigate the situation. 656 00:33:19,204 --> 00:33:21,164 Speaker 1: And that's just I think, a much more positive way 657 00:33:21,164 --> 00:33:23,644 Speaker 1: of thinking about risk and of thinking about how you 658 00:33:23,764 --> 00:33:26,684 Speaker 1: deal with it in the moment when those percentages, when 659 00:33:26,684 --> 00:33:29,924 Speaker 1: that variance does not go in your direction, especially when 660 00:33:29,924 --> 00:33:32,124 Speaker 1: you knew you were taking a gamble. Right, If I'm 661 00:33:32,164 --> 00:33:34,484 Speaker 1: as a flight and I cut it close, that is 662 00:33:34,564 --> 00:33:37,244 Speaker 1: on me. I should not blame the traffic. I should 663 00:33:37,244 --> 00:33:40,484 Speaker 1: not blame the cab driver for taking the wrong route. 664 00:33:40,684 --> 00:33:42,644 Speaker 1: You know, it is on me. It is not on 665 00:33:42,684 --> 00:33:47,644 Speaker 1: any of those things. We'll be right back after the break. 666 00:33:57,684 --> 00:34:01,324 Speaker 1: So now I want to actually just pause for a second. 667 00:34:01,964 --> 00:34:04,124 Speaker 1: You're talking about you know, who you surround yourself with 668 00:34:04,244 --> 00:34:07,764 Speaker 1: and life circumstances and all of these things, and your 669 00:34:07,804 --> 00:34:10,644 Speaker 1: life circumstances have changed a little bit over the last 670 00:34:10,644 --> 00:34:16,164 Speaker 1: few years because you know, you were incredibly brave and 671 00:34:16,324 --> 00:34:21,364 Speaker 1: took a huge, huge personal risk when you exposed someone 672 00:34:21,524 --> 00:34:24,524 Speaker 1: very well known in the chess community. And when you 673 00:34:24,564 --> 00:34:28,644 Speaker 1: did that, multiple other women came forward as well. But 674 00:34:28,844 --> 00:34:31,924 Speaker 1: you were reprimanded for it, you were blamed for it, 675 00:34:31,964 --> 00:34:34,804 Speaker 1: and you ended up leaving your role in a lot 676 00:34:34,884 --> 00:34:38,364 Speaker 1: of very prominent chess organizations which were a huge part 677 00:34:38,364 --> 00:34:39,364 Speaker 1: of how you made a living. 678 00:34:39,964 --> 00:34:41,644 Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, that has been a very big part of 679 00:34:41,684 --> 00:34:46,404 Speaker 3: my life. And I should say that the abuser also 680 00:34:46,604 --> 00:34:52,964 Speaker 3: was banned from these chess institutions, and so I am 681 00:34:53,084 --> 00:34:56,364 Speaker 3: very proud of kind of the awareness that it's caused 682 00:34:56,404 --> 00:34:57,404 Speaker 3: in the TESS community. 683 00:34:58,524 --> 00:35:01,564 Speaker 2: And I can't speak in. 684 00:35:01,564 --> 00:35:04,204 Speaker 3: More detail about it right now, but yeah, I really 685 00:35:04,244 --> 00:35:06,924 Speaker 3: appreciate you know, your support on that, Marie as well, 686 00:35:06,964 --> 00:35:10,484 Speaker 3: because I must say that having community in poker and 687 00:35:10,604 --> 00:35:14,004 Speaker 3: in chass has been really beneficial to me because I 688 00:35:14,084 --> 00:35:17,284 Speaker 3: found that the poker world has been so supportive, which 689 00:35:17,404 --> 00:35:20,924 Speaker 3: you know, I wasn't honestly completely expecting. But you know, 690 00:35:20,964 --> 00:35:22,364 Speaker 3: one of the things I think people do go to 691 00:35:22,404 --> 00:35:24,484 Speaker 3: poker a lot of the time because they want to 692 00:35:24,964 --> 00:35:28,244 Speaker 3: have their own, you know, their own careers, and sometimes 693 00:35:28,244 --> 00:35:30,644 Speaker 3: that ends up being a secondary career as well, where 694 00:35:30,684 --> 00:35:33,604 Speaker 3: they do poker and something else. And that always gives 695 00:35:33,644 --> 00:35:36,124 Speaker 3: you more power, doesn't it. 696 00:35:36,124 --> 00:35:39,244 Speaker 1: It absolutely does. And we won't talk about this more, 697 00:35:39,284 --> 00:35:41,324 Speaker 1: but I do want to say that I'm very proud 698 00:35:41,364 --> 00:35:44,524 Speaker 1: of you, and you clearly have taken kind of this 699 00:35:45,244 --> 00:35:50,324 Speaker 1: risk taking from from the world of games to a 700 00:35:50,404 --> 00:35:53,564 Speaker 1: very personal place in your life. You made the calculation, 701 00:35:53,884 --> 00:35:56,764 Speaker 1: you knew what the costs could be, and you did 702 00:35:56,804 --> 00:35:59,484 Speaker 1: it anyway. And being able to act like that and 703 00:35:59,524 --> 00:36:01,924 Speaker 1: to do that in real life and not just to 704 00:36:02,004 --> 00:36:04,084 Speaker 1: go all in at the poker table, because this is 705 00:36:04,124 --> 00:36:07,404 Speaker 1: effectively what you were doing, right. You went all in 706 00:36:07,684 --> 00:36:10,364 Speaker 1: and it was not a bluff, and that is something 707 00:36:10,364 --> 00:36:11,804 Speaker 1: that takes a lot of guts and a lot of 708 00:36:11,844 --> 00:36:15,164 Speaker 1: courage because it did upend your life. So I just 709 00:36:15,204 --> 00:36:16,644 Speaker 1: want to I want to say that I think you 710 00:36:16,644 --> 00:36:20,524 Speaker 1: should be incredibly proud of your ability to, you know, 711 00:36:20,564 --> 00:36:23,684 Speaker 1: take risky decision making to an extreme that a lot 712 00:36:23,684 --> 00:36:25,444 Speaker 1: of people would not be able to do. 713 00:36:25,924 --> 00:36:26,404 Speaker 2: Thank you. 714 00:36:26,844 --> 00:36:28,924 Speaker 1: I would love to hear kind of what you have 715 00:36:29,084 --> 00:36:31,084 Speaker 1: next in store. I know you have a new book 716 00:36:31,084 --> 00:36:34,004 Speaker 1: coming out, Thinking Sideways, which is also about you know, 717 00:36:34,404 --> 00:36:37,364 Speaker 1: risk and that kind of thinking, So i'd love to 718 00:36:37,364 --> 00:36:38,884 Speaker 1: hear a little bit more about it. But i'd also 719 00:36:38,964 --> 00:36:41,324 Speaker 1: just love to hear about how you're thinking about your 720 00:36:41,364 --> 00:36:44,724 Speaker 1: life kind of moving forward, how your equity calculation. To 721 00:36:44,724 --> 00:36:48,484 Speaker 1: bring it back to the beginning of our conversation, how 722 00:36:48,524 --> 00:36:49,524 Speaker 1: that's looking right now. 723 00:36:50,284 --> 00:36:52,804 Speaker 2: Well, you know, it's really an interesting time for me. 724 00:36:52,924 --> 00:36:55,684 Speaker 3: Is I kind of like diving more into writing and 725 00:36:56,004 --> 00:36:59,684 Speaker 3: to poker as well, And I feel like it's a 726 00:36:59,804 --> 00:37:02,044 Speaker 3: very intellectually rich time for me, and it's just like 727 00:37:02,204 --> 00:37:06,164 Speaker 3: so fun. I know that you're working on a book 728 00:37:06,164 --> 00:37:08,604 Speaker 3: on cheating, and one thing that came up a lot 729 00:37:08,684 --> 00:37:11,644 Speaker 3: in my recent book, Thinking Sideways, is also kind of 730 00:37:11,684 --> 00:37:14,964 Speaker 3: the cheating and chess scandals that have erupted, and that's 731 00:37:15,004 --> 00:37:17,084 Speaker 3: something I've really been thinking a lot, because it's just 732 00:37:17,124 --> 00:37:18,564 Speaker 3: a story that doesn't die. 733 00:37:18,764 --> 00:37:20,764 Speaker 1: What's kind of the basic idea of the book, what 734 00:37:20,764 --> 00:37:21,964 Speaker 1: can we expect? 735 00:37:22,324 --> 00:37:24,764 Speaker 3: Well, really, the basic idea of the book is ways 736 00:37:24,804 --> 00:37:27,044 Speaker 3: you can learn about life from chess, and I add 737 00:37:27,044 --> 00:37:29,364 Speaker 3: a lot of poker in there as well, And I 738 00:37:29,364 --> 00:37:31,764 Speaker 3: think that the title will be quite interesting to people 739 00:37:31,844 --> 00:37:34,884 Speaker 3: because when you ask a chess player how many moves 740 00:37:34,924 --> 00:37:37,364 Speaker 3: you think ahead, you're often expecting that to be the 741 00:37:37,444 --> 00:37:40,444 Speaker 3: secret of success, that they think ten moves ahead, whereas 742 00:37:40,484 --> 00:37:42,764 Speaker 3: a weaker player would only think eight moves ahead. And now, 743 00:37:42,764 --> 00:37:45,364 Speaker 3: whether there's some truth in that really good to chess 744 00:37:45,364 --> 00:37:48,204 Speaker 3: players can think many moves ahead, like Beth Harmon staring 745 00:37:48,244 --> 00:37:51,124 Speaker 3: at the ceiling. The truth is really more that great 746 00:37:51,164 --> 00:37:53,884 Speaker 3: chess players think sideways, and that just means that they 747 00:37:53,884 --> 00:37:57,124 Speaker 3: see an option that their opponent did not see, sometimes 748 00:37:57,204 --> 00:38:00,684 Speaker 3: on move one, sometimes unmoved two. And it's much more 749 00:38:00,764 --> 00:38:02,684 Speaker 3: likely that a chess player will see one of those 750 00:38:02,724 --> 00:38:04,764 Speaker 3: options that you didn't see and that's why they beat you, 751 00:38:05,084 --> 00:38:08,604 Speaker 3: than that they'll like out calculate you twenty moves ahead. 752 00:38:09,404 --> 00:38:11,684 Speaker 3: This is really important for life right now too, because 753 00:38:11,684 --> 00:38:13,844 Speaker 3: it's just like we were talking about with my own life 754 00:38:13,924 --> 00:38:17,204 Speaker 3: and probably so many other listeners' lives as well, that 755 00:38:17,684 --> 00:38:19,324 Speaker 3: you might not be able to plan for five years 756 00:38:19,364 --> 00:38:23,084 Speaker 3: ahead right now, and that can be scary, but honestly, 757 00:38:23,164 --> 00:38:26,644 Speaker 3: that's kind of the way of a chess player. It's 758 00:38:26,724 --> 00:38:28,764 Speaker 3: unlikely that you're going to predict what five moves ahead 759 00:38:28,764 --> 00:38:31,364 Speaker 3: looks like, but you can predict two or three better 760 00:38:31,404 --> 00:38:33,484 Speaker 3: than your opponent. That's going to give you a really 761 00:38:33,524 --> 00:38:34,204 Speaker 3: good chance to win. 762 00:38:35,644 --> 00:38:37,364 Speaker 1: That's great, and I think that that's such a great 763 00:38:37,404 --> 00:38:40,404 Speaker 1: metaphor for how we should be thinking in ways that 764 00:38:40,604 --> 00:38:44,004 Speaker 1: are not necessarily the expected way of thinking. I love 765 00:38:44,044 --> 00:38:45,364 Speaker 1: that idea of thinking sideways. 766 00:38:45,604 --> 00:38:46,084 Speaker 2: Thank you. 767 00:38:46,524 --> 00:38:48,844 Speaker 3: I'm getting very much more into writing and speaking and 768 00:38:48,884 --> 00:38:52,404 Speaker 3: also kind of diving back into poker and yes, which 769 00:38:52,444 --> 00:38:54,524 Speaker 3: is a really interesting moment in my life where I'm 770 00:38:54,604 --> 00:38:58,444 Speaker 3: kind of just like exploring kind of not totally new areas, 771 00:38:59,004 --> 00:39:01,804 Speaker 3: but definitely I'm not exactly sure what the next few 772 00:39:01,884 --> 00:39:05,084 Speaker 3: years are going to look like, and that's really exciting, scary, 773 00:39:05,124 --> 00:39:05,884 Speaker 3: but also exciting. 774 00:39:06,404 --> 00:39:08,684 Speaker 1: It is exciting. One thing poker teaches you is to 775 00:39:08,724 --> 00:39:14,524 Speaker 1: be comfortable with uncertainty and excited about the prospect of 776 00:39:14,604 --> 00:39:17,644 Speaker 1: not knowing what the future holds exactly. 777 00:39:17,724 --> 00:39:19,284 Speaker 2: That's so well put. I love that. 778 00:39:19,644 --> 00:39:21,364 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, and it's not something that we're used 779 00:39:21,404 --> 00:39:24,404 Speaker 3: to as much in like midlife, right Like, I think 780 00:39:25,844 --> 00:39:29,164 Speaker 3: people are often trained that when you're young, you have 781 00:39:29,244 --> 00:39:31,364 Speaker 3: no idea what's going to happen. Next, and that is normal, 782 00:39:31,644 --> 00:39:34,084 Speaker 3: but in mid life, this idea of uncertainty, I think 783 00:39:34,204 --> 00:39:36,844 Speaker 3: is very uncomfortable for people, especially if they have kids. 784 00:39:37,284 --> 00:39:38,764 Speaker 3: But you know what, it's something that I think a 785 00:39:38,764 --> 00:39:39,964 Speaker 3: lot of people are going to have to deal with 786 00:39:40,044 --> 00:39:43,644 Speaker 3: more as the world is changing so rapidly, that we 787 00:39:43,804 --> 00:39:46,204 Speaker 3: just have to get more comfortable with uncertainty, no matter 788 00:39:46,204 --> 00:39:47,604 Speaker 3: what your circumstances are. 789 00:39:47,684 --> 00:39:50,884 Speaker 2: Certainly me, but really for a lot of people, I. 790 00:39:50,844 --> 00:39:54,724 Speaker 1: Think those are wise words. And even though we don't 791 00:39:54,724 --> 00:39:56,884 Speaker 1: know what the future holds, I know that I'm very 792 00:39:56,884 --> 00:39:59,724 Speaker 1: excited to see what it holds next for you. And 793 00:39:59,884 --> 00:40:03,364 Speaker 1: I'm excited to read your new book, and I'm excited 794 00:40:03,364 --> 00:40:05,804 Speaker 1: to see where you end up. And I'm so grateful 795 00:40:06,164 --> 00:40:09,044 Speaker 1: that you've come here today to share your wisdom and 796 00:40:09,084 --> 00:40:11,524 Speaker 1: your experience about decision making with us. I know it's 797 00:40:11,564 --> 00:40:14,284 Speaker 1: been incredibly useful and inspirational to me, and I hope 798 00:40:14,324 --> 00:40:17,524 Speaker 1: that our listeners feel the same way. So thanks so much, John, 799 00:40:18,244 --> 00:40:18,964 Speaker 1: Thank you, Maria. 800 00:40:19,044 --> 00:40:19,724 Speaker 2: This is awesome. 801 00:40:25,844 --> 00:40:29,164 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. The show 802 00:40:29,284 --> 00:40:33,244 Speaker 1: is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This 803 00:40:33,324 --> 00:40:37,124 Speaker 1: episode was produced by Isabelle Carter Our associate producer is 804 00:40:37,164 --> 00:40:40,604 Speaker 1: Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.