WEBVTT - Bitcoin Soars as Trump Win Boosts Crypto Prospects 0:00:00.600 --> 0:00:10.719 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:13.960 Week inside, from the reporters and editors who bring you 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:18.319 America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:22.680 tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.800 and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:31.280 Bitcoin rallying past eighty six thousand dollars for the first 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 time ever, boosted by President elect Donald Trump's embrace of 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.920 digital assets and the prospect of a Congress featuring a 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:40.120 pro crypto lawmakers. For more on the trade, we're joined 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:42.479 by Mike Reagan. He's a senior editor for Bloomberg News. 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:46.000 He joins us here in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. Help 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:49.919 us make sense of the optimism here. Why exactly are 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:52.720 bowls so excited? Well, I think you started out it 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:56.160 with the Trump victory. If you go back to July, 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:00.000 when Trump really was front and center in the crypto world. 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.880 He spoke at the Bitcoin twenty four conference, and he 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.600 made a lot of promises to the crypto community. But 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:09.520 to me, the most important one is he has plans 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.000 for what he calls a strategic stockpile of. 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:13.919 Bitcoin, like a strategic oil reserve. 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:16.480 Yeah, yeah, and you know, and the US does have 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.800 other sort of strategic reserves, you know, they for different commodities. 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:22.200 Over the year, I think, you know, no one expected 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.640 we'd ever be talking about a strategic reserve of bitcoin. 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.400 But in this political environment, I mean, you look. 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:33.240 At the money that was spent by the crypto lobby. 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:36.280 They're super pac called fair Shake, you know, something like 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:40.080 a one hundred and thirty million on congressional races, and 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:43.440 they managed to elect pretty much most off not all, 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:44.759 the candidates they wanted by. 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:47.279 Using messaging that was not at all related to crypto. 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.559 We should not, right, right, But it's that money. 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:53.200 You know, if you put that target money into certain 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:55.720 congressional senate elections. 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:56.280 It can have a big effect. 0:01:56.360 --> 0:02:00.720 So the political mood for being sort of tai crypto 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.360 at all right now is not very high after that election. 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.360 Now that you know, the question is what does he 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:09.560 mean by this bitcoin reserve. He the day before Trump spoke, 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.720 RFK Junior spoke and said, oh, I heard Trump's going 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.520 to announce a plan to buy a million bitcoin for 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.720 this reserve. Now put that into perspective, that's eighty five 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:20.840 billion dollars. 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.600 Worth of bitcoin at this at this price point. 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:28.760 And Cynthia Loomis, the Senator from Wyoming, actually spoke after Trump. 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:31.799 Now Trump fell short of that promise at. 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:35.840 His speech to the Bitcoin Convention, but Sithony Loomis, the 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:39.919 Senator from Wyoming, came after him and was basically presenting 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:41.840 a draft of a bill that she had to do 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.960 exactly that by one million bitcoins. So you know, the 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.720 question I think that's lingering over this market right now 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:50.400 is will that really happen? 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:52.799 Is there really enough. 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:56.440 Support in Congress for spending eighty five billion at these 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.360 prices tomorrow could be ninety billion, one hundred billion depending 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:02.440 on where these prices go over the next few years 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:04.600 to buy crypto because if you know, if the market 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.000 knows that the government's coming to buy, well, you know, 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:10.720 the sky's the limit for the price. So, you know, 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.880 will Congress really, you know, are they influenced enough by 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:17.160 this crypto lobby to actually go for that? I think 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:20.920 is the big question hanging over this rally. But you know, 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:23.679 clearly there's a runway of time before Trump comes in 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.840 and before we really get a sense of his priorities 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:30.720 where this is sort of the driving theme and it's 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:34.359 almost impossible to find someone who's bearish on bitcoin and 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:38.920 crypto in general because of this sort of enthusiasm from 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:40.840 the next administration towards crypto. 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:45.120 What about not just enthusiasm, but how much do we 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:47.760 know about whether the new administration is actually going to 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.680 provide a regulatory framework more than what we already have 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.200 in the crypto industry and kind of promote bringing the 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:58.440 crypto industry into the US. How much of the optimism 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:00.200 and Bigot's price is kind of reflect. 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:01.960 Now there's certainly some of that too, you know. 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:06.720 I mean, Trump has promised to fire Gary Gensler and 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.120 appoint crypto friendly regulators. 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:10.920 Now it's an open question. 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:13.400 A lot of legal experts think he doesn't have the 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.680 power to actually just fired Againstler, but he certainly, you know, 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.239 can exert his as much influence as he can to 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:21.960 try to get him to quit or whatever. 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:25.560 You know. You know, Trump often deals in sort of. 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:30.480 Actions and activities that don't have a precedent, so it's 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:33.680 hard to hard to say exactly how far he will 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:37.320 push the envelope on that as far as just appointing 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.840 new regulators. Now, there's any number of crypto bills floating 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:42.240 around Congress. 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:44.479 That have just kind of stalled out in the process. 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:46.720 So I think there is a chance that we could 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:48.800 see sort of that logjam clear. 0:04:49.279 --> 0:04:50.760 Even before the end of the year, there were you know, 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.000 there was some hope that the stable coin bill is 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:53.479 the big one. 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:56.440 You know, the cryptotokens that are worth exactly a dollar. 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:00.400 They're very, very important to the market, and you know, 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.320 there's a bill floating around to sort of set the 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:05.880 regulatory guidelines for them. That would kind of be the 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.040 first one that we would look to happen. But you know, 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:11.520 it's kind of a blank slate now as far as 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:15.240 what the regulatory environment will look like in the next administration. 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.159 So it's a great question, and we're just gonna have 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.320 to stay tuned and see how it all progresses. 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.440 I'm wondering what would change the mind in your view 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:24.160 of the folks who are so bullish right now. You say, 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.760 it's difficult to find a bear out there given the 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.960 way that the scenario has changed just in the last 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:29.520 few days. 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:29.960 Yeah. 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.279 Yeah, to me, that question of the bitcoin reserve is 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.240 really the one that's lingering over the market. You know, 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:41.279 Trump has a very long agenda of things he wants 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:42.360 to accomplish. 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:43.800 Where that sort of. 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:48.400 Making good on the promises to the crypto community, Where 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:50.440 that lands on that list of priorities, I think is 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.480 the most important thing. If you get into the new 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:55.720 year and there's a few weeks months and you don't 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:58.599 hear him talking about it, or you know, there's not 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:03.719 really much action going on in DC to create this 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:07.080 bitcoin reserve, then I think people are going to start questioning, 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.159 you know that that's a big deliverable to the crypto 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:12.120 community from Trump, And I think, you know, he's got 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:14.800 some time obviously, you know, he can't do anything until 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:18.320 he he's in office and the new Congress is seated. 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.560 But where that item lands on the priority list for Trump, 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.880 I think we'll really determine when and if this market 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:26.239 cracks starts to crack. 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:28.880 One thing that's pretty remarkable to me about the election 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.039 is just how powerful the crypto lobby was. Yeah, in 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:36.799 this case, especially in the sense of running programming, running 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:40.159 ads that were not at all tied to crypto in 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.440 order to elect candidates who were pro crypto. Their record 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:46.160 is incredible for this past election. 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:49.039 Right right, And they've already started to fund the pack 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.599 for the mid terms. You know, this lobby, this super 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:54.240 Pac fair Shake, It's not going anywhere. 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:55.919 It's incredibly powerful. 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:59.799 I believe I was the biggest source of corporate funding 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:03.719 to congressional campaigns in this last election. So, you know, 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:07.960 memories are short not everyone you know is really focused 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.120 on the FTX days and all the blow ups. 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:11.040 That we saw a few years ago. 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:11.960 Yeah, that's what I like. 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.320 If something like that happens again, or if consumers are 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:16.640 indeed harmed by certain projects that are out there, by 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.040 certain products that are out there, then does that shift 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:19.760 sentiment at all? 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:20.840 I think it could. 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:24.680 Yeah, I think it certainly could. You know, knock on wood. 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:28.400 The last trailing year or so has been as far 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:32.680 as crypto projects and exchanges and companies blowing up, it's 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.120 been pretty smooth sailing. So I think that helps to 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:38.920 sort of, you know, create this atmosphere of complacency towards 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:43.040 this market that you know has a pretty volatile history, 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.920 and you know, yes, what could change the price action, 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:49.360 that's the thing, you know, it's a it's a very 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:50.560 unpredictable market. 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.400 I mean, over time it's. 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:55.800 Obviously expanded exponentially, but the price of bitcoin has just 0:07:55.800 --> 0:08:00.440 been astounding over its history, but not without majors and 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.400 bear markets in between. So I do think a dip 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:06.440 and price could sort of change the sentiment about how 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:09.400 laissez faire the government wants to be towards this solassa 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:10.080 class for sure. 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.880 Mike Reagan, Bloomberg News Senior editor, over on the Crypto Desk. 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:16.200 Thanks so much for joining us on Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.440 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.720 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:25.920 on Apple car Play and and Broun Auto with a 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:29.480 Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:31.920 We've been looking forward to our next guest for quite 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.000 a bit of time. It's because Peter Atwater is a 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.600 go to for us. He helps us understand how we 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:38.880 got to a certain place and also where we're going. 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:42.160 He's Adjuncate Professor of Economics at William and Mary. He's 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:44.800 also the author of The Confidence Map, Charting a Path 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:48.000 from Chaos to Clarity. That book came out last year. 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.080 He's also President of Financial Insights. It says it uses 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:54.080 a confidence driven framework to get perspective on the financial 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:57.760 markets and the economy. Peter, always good to have you 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:00.480 join us. I want to use that framework on about 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:04.040 confidence to understand what happened in the US last week 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.480 with the resounding election of Donald Trump. How should we 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.000 look at confidence as a factor there? 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:13.720 Sure, so, going into the election, I felt that voters 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:18.080 were going to select the candidate that addressed the vulnerability 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:21.880 that mattered most to them. And that's a very individualized thing. 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:28.040 When confidence is low, moreover, it favors the candidate who's 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:31.400 not the incumbent. And so I think as a backdrop 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:34.839 to what we've seen is this was as much a 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:40.320 rejection of the incumbency as it was a mandate for 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:41.160 Donald Trump. 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.920 But you also write that I mean, typically we usually 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:49.840 see I guess that pattern that the incumbent, If people 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.200 are feeling confident in what the incombinent has done, they 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.360 vote for the incumbent, and if they don't, they vote 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.840 in another way. But just looking at your note that 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:01.600 you sent over, it does seem like there were some 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:05.840 specific voters, specific types of people who were voting for 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:10.240 Trump that had some very I guess particular issues in 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.640 mind that they brought to the polls that maybe other 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:14.320 people were maybe blind to. 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.600 Yeah, I mean, you have issues of immigration, you have 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.679 issues of inflation. On the other hand, you have folks 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:27.120 who feel threatened by a lot of the liberal agenda. 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:32.960 And so what we have behind this election is an 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:41.760 interesting composite whose interests are aligned in getting the incumbent out. 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.880 And it remains to be seen, in my opinion, whether 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:51.839 the cohesion that exists in opposing a single candidate will 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:55.440 be able to be sustained. It feels more like a 0:10:55.640 --> 0:11:01.040 loose cooperative than it does necessarily a unified body. 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:05.360 Well, we do see some unification within the Republican Party 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:09.199 right now, at least when it comes to composition in Congress. 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.040 We spoke to Billy House and Stephen Dennis earlier and 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.120 they talked about, yes, there is some resistance to Trump 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.040 within the Republican Party, but few and far between, at 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.880 least in the House of Representatives, a little bit in 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.240 the Senate, where you have some senators who actually did 0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:28.160 vote to impeach the president elect back when he was president. 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:33.280 That said, it does look like Republicans will maintain control 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.960 of the House of Representatives. How would you advise them 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.760 over the next two years to latch on to the 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:44.720 lack of confidence that Americans expressed at the polls in 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:48.400 Democrats to use that to their advantage to actually go 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:49.400 through with our policies. 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:52.960 Yeah, I think that we spend a lot of time 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:58.320 focused on the left right divide. To me, the greatest 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.280 issue in the United States to day is the wealth 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:05.160 gap between those at the bottom and those at the top. 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:06.880 And so whether I. 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:10.240 Was advising, you know, a second Biden administration or the 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:14.160 new Trump administration, this is really a time where attention 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.320 needs to be paid to those at the bottom in 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:24.240 creating a means by which moving up the capital ladder 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:28.679 is possible. No. 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.520 Sorry, So when you think about who could be the 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:38.640 biggest then beneficiaries of a President Trump, who comes to mind, Well. 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:41.280 It depends on your time perspective. I mean, today, what 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:45.560 we're seeing is that the market concluding that the biggest 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:51.080 beneficiaries will be really part of this broad elon musk 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:54.520 pro trate as I call it, where it picks up 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:58.800 you know, crypto, it picks up space, tesla, you know, 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:04.120 there's a lot that is involved in this broad entourage trade. 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:09.320 What concerns me is that between now an inauguration date, 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:15.920 everybody can fantasize about what is likely ahead. The rubber 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:20.280 doesn't meet the road until after inauguration date, and so 0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:25.240 investors need to be careful not to front run to 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:31.319 an enormous extreme what they foresee ahead. And from my perspective, 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:36.319 that's exactly what's happening right now. Between regulation, taxation, the 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:43.559 endorsement of this Elon Musk Trump partnership, their investors are 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.120 counting on a very clear, unencumbered future ahead. 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:51.480 How much did you see that in play when it 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:56.520 comes to prediction markets, because it was astounding seeing how 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:01.000 the night of the election, the prediction markets I'm thinking 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:04.840 of polymarket had was basically pricing for for Trump to 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:08.880 win hours before we saw you know, even I mean. 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:11.000 There were weeks before. 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.480 Weeks before, yes, but but but especially on election I too, 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.560 there was a really big gap between the broader consensus 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.679 and what prediction markets were saying. I'd love for you, 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.040 Peter to kind of opine on like how that comes 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:24.240 into play and whether you are seeing I guess you know, 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.400 people who use polymarket are maybe going to be people 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.080 who are already more pro Trump. 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:34.760 Yeah, I mean, you have a Venn diagram today of 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:40.440 crypto gambling sports. There there's a there's a large overlap 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:45.840 of participants and more importantly confidence, and so to see 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:51.240 that influencing the poly market environment doesn't surprise me. 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:53.480 What I've been. 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:58.280 Watching, actually, to me, was a better leading indicator was 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:02.280 the developing coil and test that if you had gone 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.640 back and looked over the last three years, you've seen 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:11.359 this narrowing and narrowing of coil. And these are emotional 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:15.840 tugs of war between the bulls and the bear that ultimately, 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:20.360 when the rope gets released, the energy that is released 0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:23.880 with that moves things to one side. And so ahead 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:27.240 of the election, you could see that when Tesla's earning 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:31.920 surprised and the stock popped, that the rope was already 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:32.960 beginning to let go. 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:38.480 So what could what could actually lead to some sort 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:44.760 of pullback? Right now we're seeing really kind of exuberants everywhere, Peter, Yeah, So. 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:50.760 This sort of exuberance dies on exhaustion that everybody who 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:54.360 believes in it has committed the maximum amount that they're 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:59.280 going to commit. It's also an environment that likes round numbers, 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.400 So it wouldn't prize me to see if we get 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:05.440 you know, a a an ascent to bitcoin one hundred 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:08.320 thousand I mean that that feels like a like a 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:12.760 logical next step. Again, remember that this is this is 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:19.400 an environment where it is incredibly transparent on X what 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.280 people are positioned in, where they're going, and you have 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:28.240 to believe that institutions and others are now betting on 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:32.600 the crowd's bets. And thanks to all of these, you know, 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:37.800 fast fashion ETFs, the ability to add extreme leverage into 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.040 all of that is part of the appeal. 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:41.080 This is this is. 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:45.600 A fast moving gamblers game that is going to draw 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:47.720 everybody in before it exhausts. 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.880 It's just remarkable too to see it play out in 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.480 real time on the X platform, which by the way, 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:58.360 looks completely different to me now a couple of years later, Peter, 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:01.800 than it did before Elon Musk bought it. But that's 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:05.800 a conversation for a different day. Peter Atwater, adjunct Professor 0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:08.400 of Economics at william and Mary, author of the Confidence Map, 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.679 Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity, also President of 0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:16.640 Financial Insights, Joining us this afternoon from Pennsylvania. 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:18.520 This is Bloomberg Business Week. 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:25.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.239 each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple Car 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:31.320 Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:34.639 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:40.040 New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Emily. 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:41.879 I don't know if you saw this earlier, but Amazon 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.719 is reportedly developing smart eyeglasses to guide its delivery drivers 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.119 around and within buildings. This according to Reuters, who cited 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:53.560 five people familiar with the matter. If these work glasses 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:56.840 would navigate drivers on a small embedded screen along routes 0:17:56.840 --> 0:17:58.600 and at each stop. The ideas that it aims to 0:17:58.600 --> 0:17:59.840 reduce delivery time. 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.520 Think so because you see it in your vision field 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:05.879 instead of having a look onto the dashboard of the 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:06.960 Trunck Grunder. 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:08.560 Or no, or when you're walking around holding a package, 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:10.160 you're like, Okay, this is exactly the house it needs 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:13.200 to be delivered to. Kind of a cool little USh 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:15.679 for I should note. An Amazon spokesperson told Reuters it 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:18.320 is continuously innovating to create an even safer and better 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:21.400 delivery experience for its drivers, but it would not compliment 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.440 comment on its product roadmap. 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:25.960 I want to see, like a prototype, what they would 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:26.320 look like. 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:29.440 I think this is a real use case for smart 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.200 you know, for like the Google last type thing. They've 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:33.080 been used for quite a while, they never caught on 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:35.159 with consumers. They're trying to make that happen at Snap 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:37.439 and at Meta. Still we'll see if it happens, but 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.359 the industrial use case is certainly interesting. We got with 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:43.520 this Ty Brady, he's chief technologist for robotics at Amazon. Tie, 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:45.880 I'm not gonna put you on the spot and ask 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:48.920 you to comment about this this report because we already 0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:52.080 got a comment from an Amazon spokesperson, but it does 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:55.600 talk a little bit about innovation happening at Amazon. I 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.439 know you guys did this interesting survey with MIT on 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:02.800 what AI could mean for workers. Before we get to that, 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:06.879 just give our viewers our listeners an idea of the 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.680 role that robotics play right now at Amazon. 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:12.400 Well, first of all, it's a pleasure to be here, 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.040 and thank you for having me on. I really appreciate it. Boy. 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:18.719 I'll tell you the age of physical AI is here 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:22.640 and it is really proving useful for our customers. We 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:27.960 have our robotic systems inside of our fulfillment centers. We 0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:32.280 actually just rolled our next generation fulfillment center down in Louisiana, 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.679 and we're seeing a lot of returns and gains on that. 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:38.040 Is this the Kiva system that Amazon bought over a 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:38.960 decade ago. 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.119 Wait, it is based on that. That is part of it. 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:44.919 What we do is that we have robotics that can 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.360 move goods, that's part of the Kiva systems, but also 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:51.159 robotics to store goods and sort goods and identify all 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:54.160 the various goods. And we have this in this next 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:57.040 generation fulfillment center where we have ten times the amount 0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:59.280 of robotics that we've ever had under one roof, and 0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:01.840 we're already seeing that we can process those orders twenty 0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:05.680 five percent faster and also pass along to a lower 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:06.880 cost to our customers. 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:10.000 Just proving just so we understand if when when we 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:12.360 order something on Amazon using the app or using the browser, 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:19.200 does a robot now pick that item at fulfillment center, 0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:20.359 is it still a human being? 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:26.000 Yeah, it's It's an amazing, amazing series of events that 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.600 actually happens. When you go on Amazon dot com. You're 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:32.080 getting your holiday order redder ready. We of course want 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.000 to have the world's largest selection of good for our 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:37.440 goods for our customers. We want to process that at 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:40.240 a low cost and then have the ultimate customer convenience. 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.840 And robotics is helping all along that way, right people 0:20:43.880 --> 0:20:47.399 and machines working together. We have AI systems that source 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:49.919 put the right products in the right area so that 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:51.960 can be closer to our customers. That helps on our 0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:55.359 delivery times. We have robots that move safely around people 0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:59.040 that we inbound those goods into our buildings where can 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:02.480 take on more good put more goods in the same 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:05.720 footprint as we've had as compared to our manual buildings. 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.520 We can store of actually forty percent more goods, and 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:10.760 then we have robotic systems that help sort and even 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:14.840 package those items for our customers. All this is so 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:17.800 that we can just have the ultimate in customer convenience 0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:19.800 and get the right good to right to the customer's door. 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:25.040 Ty, what is a twenty twenty four robotics system and 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:28.000 how is that different than the systems that we saw 0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:31.520 ten fifteen years ago. I'm just thinking about how I 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:34.199 used to watch that show how It's Made, and it 0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:37.280 would show factories and there were always robots working in 0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:40.399 the factories and moving things along conveyor belt. So what 0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:45.000 is so different about the twenty twenty four. Robotics. 0:21:45.480 --> 0:21:49.280 That's such a great question. We have really seen just 0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:51.760 just huge advancements over the last few years when it 0:21:51.800 --> 0:21:55.359 comes to robotics. This is why we call it physical AI. 0:21:55.480 --> 0:21:59.960 It's really the embodiment of adaptive behavior in our robotic systems. 0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:04.359 But our robotics systems shouldn't be viewed as singular and 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:07.159