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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Better than most, Better than most, Better than most.

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Speaker 3: Winn tricking down you got real talent, concentrate on God.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draftings. I'm

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Speaker 4: your host, Mike Calbery's and just like every single Wednesday,

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Speaker 4: you can count on us here to give you PGA

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Speaker 4: Tour coverage With Spencer Agiar and Kyle Murray, We're going

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Speaker 4: to dive into the latest and greatest here on the

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Speaker 4: PGA Tour. That means this week we're previewing the Valero

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Speaker 4: Texas Open in beautiful San Antonio, Texas. Last week we're

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Speaker 4: in h Town and you know, we just had to

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Speaker 4: go about three hours west on I ten to get here.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna be able to hear from our illustrious panel

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Speaker 4: here if any of those guys think that there's some

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Speaker 4: lone stark in you know, consistency and so in terms

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Speaker 4: of the game, there are some overlaps between you know,

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Speaker 4: some of these courses in the state of Texas. Certainly

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Speaker 4: there's win to consider, but there's you know, obviously other

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Speaker 4: elements about this course that make it spe This is

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Speaker 4: another one, you know, of course, TPT San Antonio that

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Speaker 4: is steeped in history. Walter Hagen, Byron Nelson, Hogan, Snead Palmer.

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Speaker 4: They all won here at least once, and this course

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Speaker 4: is annually one of the top ten toughest on you know,

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Speaker 4: really across all of the PGA Tour. It consistently ranks

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Speaker 4: is one of the hardest to hit greens in regulation,

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Speaker 4: sitting alongside you know, Riviera Harbortown, TPC south Wind in

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Speaker 4: that regard with a greens and regulation rate hovering below

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Speaker 4: sixty percent at fifty eight percent, which really speaks to

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Speaker 4: the difficulty of this course.

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Speaker 2: That's the constant.

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Speaker 4: The variable I mentioned it at the top is the wins.

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Speaker 4: When it's gusty, winners can struggle to get to double

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Speaker 4: digits under par on this course. When it's calm, recent

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Speaker 4: winners like actually Batia and Corey Connors both made it

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Speaker 4: to twenty under or better. So we're looking at sustained

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Speaker 4: wins in the ten to fifteen mile prower range this week,

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Speaker 4: plus thunderstorms that could create some stop and go play

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Speaker 4: as well. But before we get into your plays, gentlemen,

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Speaker 4: let's talk big picture. Because we're a third of the

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Speaker 4: way through the PGA Tour season. So let me ask

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Speaker 4: it two parter for the both of you, which golfer

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Speaker 4: are you expecting to bounce back? You had had larger

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Speaker 4: expectations for them this season for whatever reason, injury, poor form,

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Speaker 4: some bad timing, a few putts slip out. They don't

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Speaker 4: quite hit those top ten, top fifteens, maybe in that

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Speaker 4: right winner that you expected at this point in their season.

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Speaker 4: And on the other side of the totem pole like

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Speaker 4: which golfer has just overachieved and now is the time

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Speaker 4: to sell high on him. The market has over corrected.

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Speaker 4: The prices don't make sense visa VI their skill set

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Speaker 4: and the tracks that they're playing on. Spencer, let me

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Speaker 4: kick it to you first for that two parter.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the easy answer to give Michael,

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Speaker 1: of the player that you would expect to get it going,

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Speaker 1: and I know he's won once already on tour, would

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Speaker 1: be Scotty Scheffler. There has been this sentiment that has

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Speaker 1: come around him over the last couple of weeks where

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Speaker 1: like we could talk, we could make a whole episode

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Speaker 1: about it, about the with and without Scotty markets and

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Speaker 1: what they mean. And I've always been a proponent that

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Speaker 1: you shouldn't be betting those markets, like it's better to

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Speaker 1: just put Scotty in the field to begin with, a

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Speaker 1: lot of the numbers that are baked in are already shown,

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Speaker 1: and like we're now seeing people with Scotty in the field,

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna be interesting to see what happens at

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Speaker 1: the Masters, because you have a golfer now that really

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Speaker 1: has not played in a couple weeks, hasn't looked good

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Speaker 1: when he has played. I don't know what the general

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Speaker 1: public's going to do, but I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: Scotty return back to the stages of what we've gotten

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Speaker 1: from him historically, too good of a player. A lot

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Speaker 1: of the iron stats I think have been a little

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Speaker 1: bit flawed in some directions with it. I think for

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Speaker 1: me on the opposite end of the equation, a lot

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Speaker 1: of the answers that I always give with that. And

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Speaker 1: it's not even just like one specific player. A lot

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Speaker 1: of times you see names, whether they win or they

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Speaker 1: do not win, you get these massive decreases in price,

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Speaker 1: Like I mean, we could almost go across the board

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Speaker 1: with it with like any of these names that in

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Speaker 1: the prior tournament they top ten the event and they

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Speaker 1: go from two hundred to one to win all the

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Speaker 1: way down into these like forty to one ranges. I

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Speaker 1: mean a name this week that would kind of check

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Speaker 1: a lot of those balls is whether or not he

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Speaker 1: does well as another story. But like like John Keefer,

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Speaker 1: he's two hundred to one plus last week he provides

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Speaker 1: a good top five finish. Now all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: he's thirty forty to one. And I think these over

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Speaker 1: corrections that you see is just something that you have

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Speaker 1: to be very cognizant of throughout the season. Like I'm

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Speaker 1: always running long term data to try to find where

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Speaker 1: does it make sense from a statistical perspective, and then

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Speaker 1: add in the last ten weeks of form. Like I'm

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Speaker 1: running this in three different ways of three main categories.

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Speaker 1: It's the long term statistical profile, it's a ten week

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Speaker 1: profile of your current form, and it's a five term

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Speaker 1: out or five year outlook when it comes to course

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Speaker 1: history there. So you know, I'm always going to kind

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Speaker 1: of like condense everything into specific tournaments to see who

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Speaker 1: should be over and underrated from it, because there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of people that found success last week that are

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Speaker 1: projected to find success again. Gary Woodland last week would

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Speaker 1: be the prime example of that. I came on this

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Speaker 1: show and I talked about liking Gary Woodlin in matchups,

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Speaker 1: and unfortunately didn't end up on an outright ticket with

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Speaker 1: him because I thought the price was too short, which

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Speaker 1: is kind of the counter argument to this Michael to

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Speaker 1: where like sometimes they just win. But you know, I

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Speaker 1: think it's something to be aware of if just be

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Speaker 1: very aware of where numbers are moving and don't overreact

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Speaker 1: to specific answers of it.

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Speaker 4: Kyle, in terms of that golfer that you want to

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Speaker 4: sell high on, what's the name that comes to mind

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Speaker 4: for you right now, as I mentioned a third of

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Speaker 4: the way through the PGA Tour season.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think unfortunately, I know this is going to

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Speaker 5: be a fan favorite, someone who's coming off of some

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Speaker 5: pretty successful showing so far early on in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 5: But for me, I think it's gonna be Bob McIntyre here. Again,

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Speaker 5: I do think that he's someone who when you look

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Speaker 5: at his overall baseline over the last year and a

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Speaker 5: half or so, I would say I do think he's

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Speaker 5: going to be someone who does perform as a top

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Speaker 5: twenty five to thirty player in the world, but as

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Speaker 5: someone who currently ranks inside the top twelve of world

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Speaker 5: golf rankings. I could see him potentially being someone who

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Speaker 5: profiles as someone who could fall off a bit just

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Speaker 5: due to some struggles with the ball striking. His approach

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Speaker 5: play has been pretty poor. I do think that this

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Speaker 5: week he's someone who could be fine if it does,

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Speaker 5: you know, find a windy week here, because he is

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Speaker 5: someone who has obviously been used to those conditions, played

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Speaker 5: well in those conditions in the past. But he's been

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Speaker 5: heavily reliant on the putting, and for a guy like

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Speaker 5: him who does get a lot done that way, it's

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Speaker 5: hard to take that away from him. But again, I'm

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Speaker 5: someone who's always going to sort of consider that as

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Speaker 5: a highly variant part of a skill profile in the

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Speaker 5: golf world, and I prefer to find guys, in terms

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Speaker 5: of their elite ball striking to have more consistency over time.

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Speaker 5: So that's something who profiles to me as jumping off

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Speaker 5: the absolute page in terms of a great putter. Right now,

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Speaker 5: the putter has been great, but the ball striking has

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Speaker 5: been up and down at best.

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Speaker 2: His off the t play has still been solid.

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Speaker 5: His approach plays irons have been really, you know, pretty

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Speaker 5: off the radar at times, especially up and down. He

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Speaker 5: did have a solid week at the Players resulted in

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Speaker 5: the top five finish gained down approach there, but prior

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Speaker 5: to that four straight pretty bad losing weeks in terms

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Speaker 5: of approach play. So do kind of wonder if he's

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Speaker 5: someone that could potentially fall off if he isn't able

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Speaker 5: to keep that putter going.

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Speaker 4: On the other end of the spectrum, there's the patience

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Speaker 4: versus being stubborn. Obviously, the better way to look at

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Speaker 4: it is you're patiently awaiting one of these golfers to

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Speaker 4: play at their absolute ceiling hasn't materialized yet, but really

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Speaker 4: that only makes their price more interesting on a week

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Speaker 4: to week basis.

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Speaker 2: Who kind of checks that box for you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, if anybody's been tuning in the past

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Speaker 5: three or four weeks or so, Austin Spiderman is a

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Speaker 5: guy who kind of fits the bill for me.

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Speaker 2: I understand that we have.

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Speaker 5: Seen some peak performances from him, and I will say

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Speaker 5: it's difficult for this particular conversation because I do think

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Speaker 5: he profiles is someone who's going to be highly volatile

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Speaker 5: in general, but in terms of somebody who has still

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Speaker 5: yet to really exceed expectations in a big way. Again,

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Speaker 5: he did have that T two there at the Cognizant,

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Speaker 5: but again, his approach profile has been so good. He

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Speaker 5: grades out as the best approach player in this field

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Speaker 5: for me this week. And obviously we do have a

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Speaker 5: pretty star started field here, even though don't have a

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Speaker 5: couple of the top players in the world, but still

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Speaker 5: plenty of notable names there in the field, and he

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Speaker 5: just continues to pop off the page in terms of

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Speaker 5: his ball striking and approach play. And again, sort of

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Speaker 5: backing off of that Robert McIntyre conversation, I'm somebody that's going.

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Speaker 2: To value that quite a bit here.

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Speaker 5: Again, the putting has been a downfall for him, so

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Speaker 5: I continue to think there's going to be some struggles

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Speaker 5: there and that's going to lead to volatility. But in

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Speaker 5: terms of somebody who I do think is gonna cash

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Speaker 5: somebody a big week, it might take until November when

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Speaker 5: the fall season comes around and you know, we're not

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Speaker 5: seeing as much you know, action here in these PGA events,

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Speaker 5: but I do think that he's something that's going to

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Speaker 5: break through at some point this season. Another big name

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Speaker 5: that I think sort of fits that Bill as Hideki Matsuyama.

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Speaker 5: I mean, his ball shaking has still been fairly consistent,

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Speaker 5: just really hasn't had a ton of luck go his way.

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Speaker 5: So he's another guy who I would continue to bet

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Speaker 5: on potentially having a bounce back.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's get into the Oaks course here in

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Speaker 4: San Antonio. I'll go to you first, Spencer. We talked

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Speaker 4: about the difficulty of just putting the ball on the green.

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Speaker 4: Obviously that lends itself to the elite players in terms

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Speaker 4: of being able to work.

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Speaker 2: Around the green.

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Speaker 4: Anything else that you want to flag for our listeners

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Speaker 4: who may not be familiar with the track here.

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Speaker 1: You kind of talked about it at the beginning, Michael,

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Speaker 1: of this being a very difficult tournament and scoring averages

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Speaker 1: here are going to reflect that. And if you look

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Speaker 1: at this tournament as a whole, up until the last

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Speaker 1: couple of seasons where players started to put a little

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Speaker 1: bit more credence in actually playing this event. The week

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Speaker 1: before the Masters, one of the sentiments I've heard over

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Speaker 1: and over again is is this tournament ends up producing

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Speaker 1: long shot winners. And you've seen all these triple digit names,

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Speaker 1: but if you condense it to just the last four

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Speaker 1: or five years, Corey Connors twice, Jordan Speed, JJ Spawn,

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Speaker 1: I understand like the spawns a two hundred to one

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Speaker 1: plus number, and I understand like even when I hit

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Speaker 1: Corey Connors in twenty nineteen, that was two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty to one. Akshay won last year Harmon, Like there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of names there that are either major championship

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Speaker 1: winners became really good players. I think that that's something

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Speaker 1: that we have to pump the brakes on when it

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Speaker 1: comes to long shots for this tournament. Like, this is

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Speaker 1: a much different field during this iteration, Oberg, Henley, Fleetwood,

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Speaker 1: Hedeki Sewu, like all these names that are going to

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Speaker 1: be entering this tournament with a lot more form. So

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Speaker 1: for me, when I looked at this board, one of

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Speaker 1: the things that I noticed whether or not this ends

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Speaker 1: up being right or wrong, I mean, we will see

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Speaker 1: this week, but I thought a lot of the win

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Speaker 1: equity did land with these names at the top of

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Speaker 1: all those names I just talked about. And it's gonna

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Speaker 1: come down to around the green big boost that you need.

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Speaker 1: There's a three point two percent impact in around the greenplay.

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Speaker 1: You talked about it at the beginning. Michael there's almost

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Speaker 1: a ten percent decrease that you get in greens and

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Speaker 1: regulation percentage. All of those major championship demanding preps that

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Speaker 1: you would want to see from golfers are here. And

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Speaker 1: if players view this as a little bit more of

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Speaker 1: the situation that they want to test their game the

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Speaker 1: week before, there's a reason why everybody's there. When is

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Speaker 1: going to play a big factor. I think the one

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Speaker 1: thing I will add to that though, and I'll let

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Speaker 1: Kyle talk about this course a little bit of himself.

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Speaker 1: But even in nine conditions, if you go to twenty eleven,

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Speaker 1: it's one of the best videos or worst videos, how

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Speaker 1: depending on what your relationship is to Kevin Naw. There's

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Speaker 1: a Kevin Naw video where he made a sixteen and

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Speaker 1: that's in rather benign conditions to where he got it

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Speaker 1: stuck into the trees, into the bushes, he couldn't get

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Speaker 1: himself out. It's a challenging course. It really demands an

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Speaker 1: entire outlook across the bag that you need to find success.

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Speaker 1: And you see that with the proximity numbers, there's really

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Speaker 1: no dispersion in expectation in any of those twenty five

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Speaker 1: yard buckets from one hundred yards and beyond. Like everything

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Speaker 1: yields over a ten percent rate, that's not usually what

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Speaker 1: ends up happening. So you got to be good around

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Speaker 1: the entire bag. You have to be good around the green.

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Speaker 1: Putting is kind of one of those things that Kyle

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Speaker 1: and I talk about every single week that for me,

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to find golfers that have upticks in their

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Speaker 1: expectation on specific green complexes, and it's gonna be no

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Speaker 1: different for this week. And there's names that we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about as we move across the show. Distance, accuracy, what

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Speaker 1: you're looking for off the tee. That's kind of the

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Speaker 1: tricky one here. It's been very challenging for players to

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Speaker 1: separate themselves off the tea at this course. A lot

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Speaker 1: of that is is you have these really tough to

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Speaker 1: hit fairways. And this year might be the most interesting

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Speaker 1: part of the conversation. There's a lot of rain that

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Speaker 1: has hit that area. It's going to be lush rough.

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Speaker 1: I've heard that it's going to be thicker rough than

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Speaker 1: we normally get because of that rain and just what

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Speaker 1: they're trying to do in general. So I would be

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Speaker 1: aware of that as I'm building a model. I still

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Speaker 1: think at the end of the day, the difficulty to

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Speaker 1: separate off the tea is not necessarily going to be

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Speaker 1: the end all be all from me, Like I want

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Speaker 1: to find guys that are good with their short games,

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Speaker 1: I want to find guys that are good with their

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Speaker 1: proximity numbers. And if you're bad in one of those areas,

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Speaker 1: you better kind of be good everywhere else. And that's

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Speaker 1: how I built my model this week.

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Speaker 4: Kyle, I'd love to hear your thoughts overall on this course,

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Speaker 4: but let's double click into wind for a moment. The

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Speaker 4: Action Network app allows you to have indicators that pop

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Speaker 4: off for sports like baseball, certainly for college ball and

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Speaker 4: the NFL. Once we hit that fifteen mile per hour threshold,

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Speaker 4: all of a sudden, the downfield passing game goes out

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Speaker 4: of the window. In terms of your modeling, is that

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Speaker 4: are cut off a point where all of a sudden,

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Speaker 4: you know, some of the other stats aren't as useful

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Speaker 4: because of the variables with the winds. Obviously it's not

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Speaker 4: the same if you're heading into it, if it's across winds.

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Speaker 4: How deep in the weeds do you get with the

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Speaker 4: wind and its impact on this field?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I will say there have been certain

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Speaker 5: times where you know, the wind does feel pretty apparent.

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Speaker 5: There's you know, even times where you can go on

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Speaker 5: certain forecast systems and find wind direction maybe in factor

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Speaker 5: those in based on different holes. I think those weeks

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Speaker 5: usually come when it's you know, the very severe winds

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Speaker 5: sort of forecast. I usually don't do that until Wednesdays.

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Speaker 5: That there probably the earliest, because I feel like there

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Speaker 5: have been times for rains as well, but mostly for

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Speaker 5: wind where you do all this work to you know,

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Speaker 5: see what the wind is looking like, and then the

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Speaker 5: forecast is entirely different. So I do tend to think

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Speaker 5: that it's you know, to wait as long as you

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Speaker 5: can for actually getting an up to date forecast.

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Speaker 2: And again, forecasts can be wrong. It happens all the time.

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Speaker 5: But nonetheless I think for me that ten mile pro

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Speaker 5: hour mark is sort of the cutoff. I do also

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Speaker 5: think that sustained versus gusts is important. I think a

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Speaker 5: lot of people talk about that in the NFL as well,

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Speaker 5: so that's gonna be something I'll also be looking into.

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Speaker 5: But for me, I think it's in terms of looking

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Speaker 5: at the way to profile a player, it's the way

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Speaker 5: I like to do it in windy conditions is take

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Speaker 5: their base profile based on whatever stat I'm looking at.

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Speaker 5: Usually for windy conditions it's mainly ball striking stuff off

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Speaker 5: the t and approach, then create a delta and find

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Speaker 5: the difference between that and then them in certain windy conditions.

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Speaker 5: You know, the bet Spirt's rabbit Hole tool has a

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Speaker 5: great conditions filter that you can use. That's when I

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Speaker 5: like to use quite a bit, so you know, you

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Speaker 5: can do different things like that. That's what I'll be

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Speaker 5: using in my model this week, is that delta different

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Speaker 5: differential number there between these guys and you know, regular

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Speaker 5: conditions versus their numbers in windy conditions over ten thousan

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Speaker 5: an hour. They also have, you know, ways to filter

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Speaker 5: up to believe, eighteen miles per hour or over and again.

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Speaker 5: I think the forecast later on the week's going to

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Speaker 5: be more indicative and probably more predictive as we get

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Speaker 5: closer to actually teeing off for this event.

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Speaker 2: But I do think it's certainly going to be important.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we talked about some of the difficulties of

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Speaker 5: hitting greens in regulation. Obviously one of the more difficult

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Speaker 5: courses in that regard on tour, and obviously I'm assuming

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Speaker 5: that that's part of the reason. Why is the wind

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Speaker 5: is that's factoring into these guys obviously difficult complexes, smaller

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Speaker 5: greens in general. Also the softness of the greens is

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Speaker 5: just not there at all. Obviously, very very firm, very

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Speaker 5: hard greens, tough to hold. So we take all that

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Speaker 5: in and also the wind year it gets, the more

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Speaker 5: dried out these greens are going to become. So I

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Speaker 5: think obviously the wind also plays factor into that. I

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Speaker 5: think that's a big reason why we saw the Brian

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Speaker 5: Harmon win last year coming at nine hunder. We have

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Speaker 5: seen some low numbers here over the years, I think

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Speaker 5: over the past three or four weeks since we've been

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Speaker 5: doing the show. I think in terms of the spread

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Speaker 5: of final scores here, for these winners, this is probably

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Speaker 5: the one with the most volatility, or at least one

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Speaker 5: of them, so I think that's also something worth considering.

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Speaker 5: So for me, I think you guys obviously nailed it.

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Speaker 5: Scrambling is one of the more important stats for me

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Speaker 5: this week. It's around the green play is the most

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Speaker 5: important this week, as it's been in a model for

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Speaker 5: me all season, so far since twenty ten at this

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Speaker 5: event and then scaling up to the last five years,

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Speaker 5: twenty percent of strokes gained in this event have come

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Speaker 5: around the green, which is a pretty massive number considering

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Speaker 5: typically we see a lot of strokes gain by you know,

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Speaker 5: putting performances, especially when you're looking at post event results

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Speaker 5: there and obviously ball striking as well. So to see

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Speaker 5: this around the green number, twenty percent of strokes gain

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Speaker 5: is a pretty big number, so it's gonna be something

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Speaker 5: I'm certainly looking at. Obviously, Spencer mentioned the scrambling, and

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Speaker 5: I do agree with him as well. We can certainly

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Speaker 5: see some big numbers here without wind. I do think

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Speaker 5: accuracy is very important off the tee, but we're gonna

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Speaker 5: see guys just sort of have trouble regardless of the wind.

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Speaker 5: But I do think that from a ball striking perspective,

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Speaker 5: off the tee, the misfairway penalty is fairly high because

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Speaker 5: these trees, but the rough isn't too difficult. So for me,

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Speaker 5: I think approach play per usual and around the green

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Speaker 5: is going to be kind of the big two driving

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Speaker 5: forces this week.

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Speaker 4: So we got to feel now for the course here

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Speaker 4: in San Antonio, let's jump right into the head to

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Speaker 4: head market spencer. You're at first, you like air Coal

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Speaker 4: minus one twenty Overpower. Now, this one's interesting because Cole

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Speaker 4: has not been in the greatest form. He doesn't create

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Speaker 4: out particularly well when you talk about his play off

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Speaker 4: the tee and his long irons, but he is twelfth

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Speaker 4: on tour in strokes gained around the green, and as

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Speaker 4: we just laid out, this Oaks course rewards skilled players

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Speaker 4: around the green, it certainly gives you a leg up.

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Speaker 4: Is that where you started with this handicap between Cole

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Speaker 4: and Power?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a lot of these answers, and Kyle

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Speaker 1: and I keep hitting on this over and over again,

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Speaker 1: and I really like the way that he explained even

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Speaker 1: the win factor to it, Like it's something that you

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Speaker 1: should be considering as you're building the model or as

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Speaker 1: you're trying to run stats. Is you're not just running

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Speaker 1: basic statistics where you're trying to find some very straightforward answer,

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Speaker 1: Like every single time that you ask a question or

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Speaker 1: you get a model to build an answer for you,

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Speaker 1: you should be trying to base it off of a

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Speaker 1: course specific outlook. How do players perform in windy conditions

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Speaker 1: over ten miles per hour, if that's where you want

403
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Speaker 1: to start there. How do players perform on specific green complexes?

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00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 1: How do players perform when they're at a long course

405
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Speaker 1: versus a short course. It's everything that you're trying to do,

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Speaker 1: is you are taking a baseline statistic from an overall profile,

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Speaker 1: and does a player get better or worse depending on

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Speaker 1: these specific factors of what you're getting for a course.

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Speaker 1: And you talked about it, Michael, when it comes to

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Speaker 1: Eric Cole here, like the off the tee stuff is

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Speaker 1: going to look really brutal inside of any model, Like

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Speaker 1: he's one hundred and twentieth in my model and expected

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Speaker 1: strokes gained off the tee. But for me, I talked

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Speaker 1: about it a little bit at the beginning here. I

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Speaker 1: think this is a hard course to separate it. And

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Speaker 1: if there is a problem to this play, it could

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Speaker 1: be that that you have really thick rough. He's not long,

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Speaker 1: he's not accurate. It's maybe an ability to where off

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Speaker 1: the t should be pushed up even a little bit

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Speaker 1: more than I have it. But what really surprised me

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Speaker 1: inside of my model is despite some of the long

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Speaker 1: iron proximity not being where you would want it to,

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Speaker 1: be and where some of the off the tee stuff

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Speaker 1: is not where you want it to be whatsoever, He's

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Speaker 1: still graded as a top twenty five golfer for me

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Speaker 1: in both weighted strokes gain total, and then in your

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Speaker 1: in tournament correlations, which is just how frequently can somebody

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Speaker 1: produce those same metrics, And it comes down to all

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Speaker 1: of those short game statistics, like he's a top five

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Speaker 1: projected performer for me with the putter. That's a positive

431
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Speaker 1: upside mark. He's also the number two overall player for

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Speaker 1: me when I recalculated this leaderboard in short gain production.

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Speaker 1: And if you flip the script here and you just

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Speaker 1: look at the shame As power profile, there's a lot

435
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 1: of negatives on the Shamus end of it too. It's

436
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 1: a golfer that's outside of the top seventy for me

437
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 1: when it comes to expectation off the tee. It's a

438
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 1: golfer that when you look at some these statistics for

439
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 1: the putter, he has been terrible on similar golf green

440
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 1: complexes throughout his career. If you just look here specifically,

441
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 1: he's only made the cut once in five attempts. He's

442
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 1: averaged negative one point two to three shots putting for

443
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: round over those twelve tournaments, and while the around the

444
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 1: green stuff looks good for him, and like there's certainly

445
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: something that why you can figure out how he could

446
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: find success to be even par if he's able to

447
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: put some of the pieces together. I don't see as

448
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 1: many of the scoring opportunities of what Cole brings to

449
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: the table. There's negative ends of the marks on both

450
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: of them, and there's not the same positive marks that

451
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 1: Power brings that what Cole brings in. It's not the

452
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 1: same answer as last week when I gave Woodland over

453
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 1: post In, because like the post In profile was just

454
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 1: bad across the board and the Woodland profile was very

455
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: boom or bust across the board. That's not exactly how

456
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 1: I would describe this one. I think there's volatility on

457
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 1: both ends of it. I just don't see where the

458
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 1: upside comes into play on Seamus's profile, and I think

459
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,679
Speaker 1: there's a downside that's like inherently built into it when

460
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 1: you model it. And for Cole, there are a lot

461
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 1: of top thirty expectations in different iterations of this build.

462
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: So I'm going to bet Eric Cole here. Like I said,

463
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: I think there's volatility. This is not a golfer that's

464
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 1: been in perfect form a lot of the stuff that

465
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,640
Speaker 1: I've talked about on this show, Michael, when I try

466
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 1: to backtrack stuff and figure out where players should have

467
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: actually been for every single tournament, it's like bad versus

468
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: bad every single week that I look, even when they

469
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 1: make the cut, both of them. Shamus should be in

470
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 1: like ninetieth place before the cut and he's making the weekend,

471
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: and Cole has had a very similar answer. I just

472
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: think the short game for him is going to end

473
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: up providing a benefit that Seamus does not have with

474
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: the putter.

475
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 4: From two golfers that are struggling to the very top

476
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 4: of the board, you are circling a matchup between two

477
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 4: top five guys from an outright perspective here and a

478
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 4: head to head Kylie going with Russell Henley over McIntyre,

479
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 4: who you mentioned the reason why you think it's the

480
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 4: right time to fade him. He's maybe a bit overvalued

481
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 4: in the market. Talk to me specifically about Henley and

482
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 4: what do you like.

483
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, I will say it's always frustrating to you bet

484
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 5: these sorts of matchups when you're facing a guy who

485
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,479
Speaker 5: is so liver or die with the putter, because then

486
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 5: you look at it, look up and he's through nine

487
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 5: or ten holes and it's like one hundred and twenty

488
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,239
Speaker 5: feet made of putts, and then you're just you know,

489
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 5: tilting your face off. But in terms of the baseline

490
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 5: here between these two guys, it's a pretty substantial difference here.

491
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 5: I have Russell Henley as the second best player this

492
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 5: week in this field in terms of the way he

493
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 5: grades out at this course, and I have Robert McIntyre,

494
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 5: and admittedly I am probably lower on him than most

495
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 5: people who are you know, modeling are obviously the books

496
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 5: making numbers here for McIntyre, who I have as the

497
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 5: eighteenth best player in this field. So I'm certainly willing

498
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 5: to stand on that hill here with this matchup. But

499
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,959
Speaker 5: I think Russell Henley provides a nice floor here as well.

500
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 5: Obviously we've talked about him throughout the past few weeks

501
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,719
Speaker 5: as well, and his complete game sort of top to bottom.

502
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 5: He's been very consistent all season long, especially early on

503
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 5: so far in twenty twenty six. So Russell Henley someone

504
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 5: who I'm more than happy to back actually in these

505
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 5: head to head markets. And unfortunately, like I said, I

506
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 5: like Bobby McIntyre, but he's some of them. I'm looking

507
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 5: to fade here, so I'm going to take Henley in

508
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 5: the matchup market here.

509
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 4: Before we move on, do not forget to sign up

510
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 4: for Action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts

511
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,560
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512
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Speaker 4: our Action Network expert team. Plus you can also access

513
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517
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520
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 4: get to the rest of the show, let's toss it

521
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,120
Speaker 4: over to Sean Cirillo for a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.

522
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,199
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523
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530
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531
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 4: It's placement wager time, guys, Let's get into it with

532
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 4: yours first up. Spencer Thorbijorn oh listen, nailed that. Feeling

533
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 4: good about that? Put that right on the green. Not

534
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 4: easy this week, last two go rounds here, by the way,

535
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 4: this guy has dominated this course eleventh and fifth in

536
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 4: terms of his finishes. He looks really good at the

537
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 4: Houston Open and now here he is here again in

538
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 4: the lone star state on another tree lined wind exposed

539
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 4: accuracy premium kind of course. So it makes sense to me,

540
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 4: But talk me through the exact placement window that you're

541
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 4: looking for him here to land.

542
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: I mean, if I could like make it more specific

543
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: than that, even I'd probably prefer him in matchups over

544
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 1: anything else. I actually thought he drew a lot of

545
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: great opponents in the matchup market. We talked positively about

546
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: Tony finow last week, My model didn't necessarily see the

547
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: same benefits from him during this goal around almost across

548
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 1: the board with final. And I'd be curious hear what

549
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: Kyle's numbers are on female, since I think he was

550
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 1: even higher on female last week than I was. But

551
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 1: like recalculated proximity for feenw in this tournament, he's eighty second.

552
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 1: The really alarming one, like if you start taking away

553
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: scoring opportunities. I know, I said it's hard to separate,

554
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: but one hundred and seventeenth for me was the expected

555
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: weighted off the t grade. The around the green stuff

556
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 1: looks really good, and you kind of always see that

557
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 1: with female at similar courses, so I guess that would

558
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: be the one concern. But the putter has a little

559
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: bit of negative trajectory, not much. There's not really much

560
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: of a difference one way or another with it. But

561
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 1: if you're telling me that this is an answer where

562
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 1: the iron play gets negative from the baseline, the off

563
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,199
Speaker 1: the tee play gets negative from the baseline, the putting

564
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: gets slightly negative. Like those are a lot of negative

565
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: answers for a golfer and olison as you just talked about,

566
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: where there's safety built into the profile from what you've

567
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: seen from him at this tournament with back to back

568
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: quality finishes at this course, and he also comes into

569
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: this tournament with the top fifteen in his prior start.

570
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 1: And for me, I'm never going to overweight what we

571
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 1: have seen in the prior tournament for all the reasons

572
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: we've already talked about, but he continues to pop up

573
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: my model, Like for me, I have him as a

574
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: top twenty projected win equity golfer for fee. Now he's

575
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 1: outside of the top fifty for me, so I think

576
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: there's a lot of different ways to play that. And

577
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: then the other one I'll throw out, which I think

578
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: is maybe even a little bit more volatile, which would

579
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: be a negative answer, which is why I didn't give

580
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 1: this one, and I don't actually have a ticket on

581
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: it right now, But is Olison Overpene kind of a

582
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: lot of the same reasons that come into play. So

583
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: for me with Olison, I do have an outright ticket

584
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: on him at sixty two to one. I kind of

585
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 1: prefer this though, in any of your safety markets of

586
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: what you can get, whether that's you know, a top

587
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: thirty on the board, I think that's a really nice

588
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: look for him, or if you do want to take

589
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: some of these specific matchups where you can get him

590
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: on a one v one I think in tournament bets

591
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 1: make a lot of sense for that same answer too,

592
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: I'll probably be trying to target him across the board

593
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 1: in round one, in round two matchups and kind of

594
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: just see where the stats co there and hopefully if

595
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: I can keep getting prices, continue that throughout the week,

596
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: because that's kind of was my stance with Woodland last week.

597
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: Didn't get the outright ticket on him, but continue to

598
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: bet him after every single round, like he shoots six

599
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 1: under par and he got matched up in round two

600
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: against Davis Thompson at minus one or four over on

601
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: DraftKings and thought that was a very natural spot. And

602
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: I know Kyle had talked about Thompson being a fad

603
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: for him last week, And it's kind of you build

604
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: these narratives of players, whether they're positives or negatives, and

605
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 1: as the stats start coming in, they start swaying a

606
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,479
Speaker 1: little bit more in one direction. But when the narrative

607
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 1: continues on a name like Woodland or the negative of

608
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 1: Davis Thompson, when you can find those examples like that's

609
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: always what I'm trying to find, So I think Alison

610
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:45,959
Speaker 1: will probably be a name I'm going to be attacking

611
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 1: quite a bit this week.

612
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 4: The hell with By and Low. It's just keep going

613
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 4: with golfers that are hot, Kyle. A great showing last

614
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 4: week at the vals bar for Jordan Smith. He's an

615
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 4: elite ball striker. In fact, he's third on tour in

616
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 4: that stat behind Marikawa and Fitzpatrick. Are you looking at

617
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 4: top twenty, top ten a ladder strategy? How are you

618
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 4: targeting and trying to money manage when it comes to

619
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 4: Jordan Smith?

620
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 2: Yeah? I like Smith here in the top twenty market.

621
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 5: Spencer kind of alluded to this earlier, but does feel

622
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 5: like some of the win equity is pretty bundled up

623
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 5: here at the top. It's a couple of guys that

624
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 5: I don't mind taking stabs at down the bard a bit,

625
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 5: But for the most part, I do think that the

626
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 5: winner's probably gonna come from the top five to ten

627
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 5: guys sort of here in the outright market. So perfers

628
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 5: Smith here in the top twenty. You mentioned it, you know,

629
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 5: really solid ball striker. I have him as the sixth

630
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 5: best Ted Green player and my blended model, so I

631
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 5: think he's someone who obviously checks that box, do you.

632
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: Around the green number.

633
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 5: I do think that he's someone who certainly has not

634
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 5: been influencing, you know, some solid stroke skin numbers there

635
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 5: in that market, but he also hasn't been killing himself

636
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 5: in that department, So I think that he's someone that

637
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 5: could sort of have a spike week in terms of

638
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 5: the around the green play and the scrambling. The short

639
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 5: game is something that I do think sort of holds

640
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 5: me back from a potential outright market play here for

641
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 5: Jordan Smith. But nonetheless it's the off the tea and

642
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 5: the approach play that leads me to him here. And

643
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 5: like you mentioned, the solid finishes as of late. Obviously

644
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 5: the third place finisher at the Valas Bar, he had

645
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 5: a nice sixteenth place finish back at the Waste Management Open,

646
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 5: T twenty three at the Cognizance, so he's been kind

647
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 5: of in or around this top twenty over the past

648
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 5: five starts quite a bit, so I think there's some

649
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 5: pretty solid value here still on this three to one

650
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 5: number here for a top twenty finish for Jordan Smith.

651
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 4: Let's get into some of your favorite outrights to win

652
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 4: this tournaments this weekend, presented by DraftKings Spencer. We already

653
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 4: heard a bit from Kyle about Russell Henley why he

654
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 4: likes them. There are nine players in this field that

655
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 4: Rob ranked top forty in all four of these categories

656
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 4: strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, fairways gained,

657
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 4: and bogie avoidance, and Russell is one of them. His

658
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 4: prices dipped a little bit. I think at the peak

659
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 4: in this market was about twenty to one. I think

660
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 4: it's sounded about sixteen to one. Where's your cutoff for

661
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 4: Henley and how confident are you that he is going

662
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 4: to be in contention come Sunday?

663
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: So I wrote this up very early in the week.

664
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: I thought proper for him was fifteen to one. So

665
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,239
Speaker 1: I still think at sixteen to one, you're getting very

666
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: thin there, but they're still a little meat on the bone.

667
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: I know Kyle talked about where Henley was in his model.

668
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: He is the number one projected player in my math

669
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: this week for Winequity, and there's a lot of names

670
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: that are very similar. There's not too big of a

671
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: disparity between I don't know the number one guy to

672
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: see who Kim who would be the number five guy

673
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: for me? Like I mean, you're looking at about eight

674
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 1: points in any given direction with it. But the one

675
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: answer that I want to be made crystal clear is

676
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: when I have Russell Henley at fifteen to one and

677
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: a lot of those names are similar, you're kind of

678
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: seeing where a lot of this win equity starts shooting

679
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: for me. And it's like I said, it's to the

680
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: very top. There are a lot of these names in

681
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: that next tier, whether that's a Thorbiorn Olison. I feel

682
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: like we've talked about mac Meisner on this show a

683
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: thousand times, but mac Meisner, I will I will throw

684
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: my name into the hat here of trying to pronounce

685
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: the name that I shouldn't be trying to do, Michael,

686
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: And I don't know if I'll do it as successfully as.

687
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 2: You did with Thorbiorn.

688
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:12,479
Speaker 1: But Adrian Dumont de Schassart, I took him at one

689
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: hundred and five to one. That was the one long

690
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: shot ticket that I ended up really punching this week

691
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: outside of the Olison at sixty to one and then

692
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: Henry at the top there. But I like the Jordan

693
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: Smith call. I like Yellow Majaru, like there are a

694
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: lot of names to consider. At the end of the day,

695
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: I just think the winner's going to come at the top.

696
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: And for me with Henry, the profile is so crystal

697
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: clear across the entire board. You talked about all the

698
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: categories that he ranked well in, Like, if I run

699
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: this in my model, I have seven main statistical categories,

700
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 1: so it's like there's a lot more that goes into

701
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: it than what meets the eye on these. But like

702
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: way to strokes gain total in event correlation, I took

703
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 1: specific tracks that are similar, so like TPC properties on

704
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: all of that, I took win play when it's over

705
00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: ten miles per hour, just like Kyle did. I took

706
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 1: long courses, projected proximity plus the around the green stuff,

707
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: and then weighted scoring, which is just an entire encapsulation

708
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: of how players perform on specific properties that mimic these.

709
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: The worst grade that I have from Russell Henley in

710
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: those seven categories would be weighted scoring, which is number eight.

711
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: He is number one in way to strokeskaing total, He's

712
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: number one in event correlation. He's number two on strokes

713
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: seeing total at long courses, and that comes from a

714
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: golfer who's not extremely long off the tee. It's there's

715
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 1: a reason why he's found success in the past at

716
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: a tournament like the Masters. Augusta has a lot of

717
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: comp corollary trends of what you're going to see here.

718
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: They're trying to get players prepared. There's a reason why,

719
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 1: in my opinion, Henley has a top five finish at

720
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 1: this course. I think he is so much better than

721
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: what the market actually believes him to be on a

722
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: weekly basis. And if I was to give another answer

723
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: of a name that I think has more in the

724
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: bag than what we've seen other than just like a

725
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: very basic Scottie is really good at golf, which everybody

726
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: knows almost on a weekly basis, no matter where we

727
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: throw Russell Henley, He's a value in my model. And

728
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: for him to be number one, and you know, pushing

729
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: fifteen to one, I think that speaks volumes about the

730
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: skill set that he has.

731
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 4: All right, Kyle, let me see you up for your

732
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 4: two winners this week. He like Tommy Fleetwood at sixteen

733
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 4: to one, He's been knocking on the door basically this

734
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 4: whole season. Tied for fourth at Pebble TI for seventh

735
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 4: of the Genesis ty for eighth of the players in

736
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 4: his last start. He's also elite in wins, which we

737
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 4: can't bang the drum hard enough this week in San

738
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 4: Antonio and the impact there. But then you're calling you

739
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 4: shot here, sixty four to one on Sedarshan, Yella, Miraju

740
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 4: nailed it. He's a bit of a unicorn. I'm not

741
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 4: just talking about the name here. He's the only golfer

742
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 4: in the field who ranks top ten simultaneously in both

743
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 4: driving distance and stroked gain on approach. Sixty four to

744
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 4: one has my full attention. Why don't we start with

745
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 4: Sedarshan first?

746
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean kind of similar to Jordan Smith, right,

747
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 5: kind of you could say buying high here, but at

748
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 5: sixty four to one in a field that, like we mentioned,

749
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 5: still does have some solid, you know, stars here. But

750
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 5: you know we're not seeing you know, the full rolodex

751
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 5: of PGA Tour players here. So I think that sixty

752
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 5: four to one for this sort of event does sort

753
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 5: of catch my eye here for some value. You mentioned

754
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 5: some of the finishers that he's had as a lay.

755
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 5: I do think that could potentially lead to some noise

756
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 5: in terms of the strokes gained around you know, around

757
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 5: I guess across the board. But for me, when trying

758
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 5: to reduce some of that noise and stretch out in

759
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 5: terms of stuff that we can actually pull from, he

760
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 5: grades out as a top ten player in this field

761
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 5: for me, So at sixty four to one, I'll take

762
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,839
Speaker 5: a stab there. And then you mentioned Tommy Fleetwood. Yeah,

763
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 5: the wind is a huge factor for Fleetood. I think

764
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 5: the windier it gets, the better of a bet he becomes. Obviously,

765
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 5: betting on him as the favorite here, I typically don't.

766
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 5: I haven't found myself betting on the favorite and tournaments

767
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 5: all that much this year. But Timy Fleewood grays out

768
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 5: as the top player in my model. He's not too

769
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 5: far ahead of Henley or Seawell Kim here for me

770
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 5: in the top three. But so all those guys do

771
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 5: check some boxes. But for Fleetwood, we've talked about the

772
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 5: ball striking, We've talked about the wind in around the

773
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 5: green performance for me in my model this week, So

774
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 5: I think in terms of all the important stuff that

775
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 5: I'm looking at, he grades out exceedingly well. Top ten

776
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 5: approach number one and t degree number two and around

777
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 5: the green and number ten in approach fit here, which

778
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 5: is grading out hole by whole concert and also win

779
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 5: direction and as well as wind to conditions depending on

780
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 5: how when do we do see this course end up becoming.

781
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 5: But yeah, for me, just checking so many boxes, so

782
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 5: I'm happy to bet on him as his favorite this week. Now.

783
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 4: Drafting says the best numbers when it comes to betting golf,

784
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,800
Speaker 4: and it also has just a multitude of markets and

785
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 4: not just for the majors. So we're going to close

786
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 4: out with the DK special here. They have a group

787
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 4: C winner that they're calling it. We got Ricky Fowler,

788
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 4: we got Spawn Straka, Mitchell, Michael Thorbenson. You can correct

789
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 4: me on that one. In terms of their price, walk

790
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 4: me through who you like. So give me the golfer,

791
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 4: give me the price and a reminder you just go

792
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 4: to specials over on DK under their golf tab and

793
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 4: you're gonna be able to pick a golfer out of

794
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 4: this five some.

795
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 2: I'll get it, do you first, Kyle.

796
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a it's a pretty close group here. Obviously

797
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 5: Draftings had a good job grouping some of these guys

798
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 5: up together. But I do like Sepstraka here at this

799
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 5: plus three zero five. I think again, you know, we've

800
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 5: talked a bit over the course of the year like

801
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 5: where Ricky Fowler can potentially, you know, look really solid,

802
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 5: and I think this week could be one that could

803
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 5: you know, be a chance to fade him here in

804
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 5: this group particular where he's obviously the favorite. So that

805
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 5: adds some value across the board. J. J. Spond's been

806
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 5: pretty volatile. For me, you would be between Straka and

807
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 5: thorpe Jornson Mitchell slightly behind those two guys. But for me,

808
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 5: Straka gets a nice boost here again another player that

809
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 5: if you know, the windier it gets, the better. If

810
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 5: I bet he becomes for me, I have him as

811
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 5: the best win player above his baseline in this field.

812
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 2: Times flee with there at second.

813
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 5: So you know, when you talk about those two guys

814
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 5: in terms of the way that they improve and windy

815
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 5: conditions compared to the field, that compared to their baseline,

816
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 5: that goes a long way for me here.

817
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: So I like Strakat. That's this plus three oh five number.

818
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 4: Obviously for a special you know, few market like this.

819
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 4: It's not just the golfer, it's also the price. So

820
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 4: which combination really struck your fancy Spencer.

821
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 1: I think I'll talk about it. It's a very difficult market.

822
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 1: Like all players of the five there are inside of

823
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: the top eighteen of my model, So for me, it

824
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: comes down to price point of where I would want

825
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: to land. Mitchell is intriguing at plus three eighty. My

826
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: concerns with Mitchell is is that he doesn't have the

827
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 1: best win equity. We've seen that he's won one time

828
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: in his career, and because I think that this is

829
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 1: such a robust group of names that you're gonna probably

830
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: have to push this further up the leaderboard. I know

831
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: this is a boring answer to give after like repeating

832
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: what Kyle just said, but I think the best combination

833
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 1: of price plus upside is probably Sepstraca at plus three

834
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: zero five. I don't see a massive difference, as I said,

835
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 1: Like to me, my least favorite would be jj Spawn

836
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: at plus three eighty. He would be the eighteenth player

837
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: in my model all the way up to the sixth

838
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: player in my mad at the very best of it.

839
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: So I mean, you're kind of close there. But I

840
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: think with what we've seen with Straca, you can see

841
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: positive movements in the market from him at any sharp location,

842
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 1: like he's moving in the right direction in matchups outrights.

843
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot to like about Sepstraca. And

844
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 1: then if you want a little bit of a bigger ticket,

845
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 1: my second name would be Keith Mitchell at plus three

846
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 1: to eighty.

847
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 4: Well, there you have at Sebstraka to win group c

848
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 4: over on DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. That'll do

849
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 4: it for today's episode. Thanks for tuning in here to

850
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast. Be sure to go over to

851
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 4: actionetwork dot com and the Action App for all of

852
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 4: our great golf, betting and DFS content and even better,

853
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: sign up for Action Pro. You're going to get the

854
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 4: best bets at the best prices. That's Actionetwork dot Com

855
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 4: Slash Pro. Use Promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars

856
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 4: off in annual subscription. That's Promo Code Pod twenty over

857
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,879
Speaker 4: at Action Network dot Com slash Pro. You can find

858
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 4: Spencer on x at TFF Sports and Kyle at KMER DFS.

859
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 4: They're on the same hand on our free award winning

860
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 4: Action Network app for Spencer Agar and Kyle Murray on

861
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 4: Mike Calabrey's Thank you so much for tuning in best

862
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 4: of luck with all your beats this weekend. We'll be

863
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 4: sure to see you at the window. Thanks for listening

864
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 4: to the Action Network podcast presented.

865
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:12,760
Speaker 2: By Draft Kicks.

866
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

867
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler