1 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly market podcast. 2 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at 3 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and I'm a donna hired across Acid Record with Bloomberg. 4 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: This week on the show, well, after a rough some 5 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: of last year's worst hit investments, from tech companies to 6 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: meme stocks, even Bitcoin, have gotten off to a roaring 7 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: start to the year. So is this rebound finally the 8 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: one that's gonna stick or is it just another head fake. 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: We'll get into it with the co chief investment officer 10 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 1: at a wealth management firm, but Vildonna. Before we get 11 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: into it, I gotta I gotta apologize for for I'm 12 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: gonna be cranky for this episode because I made the 13 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: mistake of stepping on a scale on Monday that I 14 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: had a feeling. I can into it. You just look 15 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: it at me. You could tell that stepping on a 16 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: scale is not going to bring me joy. Yeah. No, no, 17 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,279 Speaker 1: it's not that. It's because I gave you a gift 18 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: I bought. I bought you this like special heart to 19 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: find dip that I really like, and I asked you 20 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: if you like it and you said it's good, which 21 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: means that you didn't like it, and you weren't eating it, 22 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: and you tried it, there's no way you wouldn't have 23 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 1: liked it. Well, why would I be mad at the 24 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: scale if I didn't like it? Though? I got you there. Yeah, 25 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: Joe Wisenthal did a like a three day fast the 26 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: other day. Yeah, it's like four days. I can do 27 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: like a four hour fast. Yeah, I just say five minutes. 28 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 1: But the lesson is never stepped on a scale in January. 29 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 1: I think just in general, who cares, don't don't step 30 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: on it. Well, let's uh put the markets on the 31 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: scale here? How about that? Oh that's good. That's a 32 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: really good transition. I do want to bring in our guest, 33 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: Keith Learner, co chief investment Officer at truest Wealth. Keith, 34 00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Great to be with 35 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: of Aldanna is so so great to be on the podcast. 36 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: I know you and I have spoken for several years, 37 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: so this is just a great uh you know set up. 38 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,519 Speaker 1: And Mike, great to meet you as well. Yeah, Keith, 39 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: why don't we start off just give us a little 40 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: bit about your background and the background of Truists. Now 41 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: for listeners, are who aren't familiar. Truist was formed basically 42 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 1: by the merger of sun Trust and bb and T 43 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, is the right. That's right? Um, 44 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 1: you know, right before the pandemic we merged and we're 45 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: the six largest bank in the country, big presence in 46 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: the southeast. Also, you might see these big purpose signs 47 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: up in the Northeast as well, like New York and California. 48 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: So we're really acrourse the country at this point. And 49 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: we have a very vibrant and growing wealth business which 50 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: I am fortunate to be the co chief investment officer 51 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: and lead our you know, asset allocation, market views, economic views, 52 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: and really hopping out clients. Uh navigate these complicated markets. 53 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 1: And I think Fildonna our first guests in the city 54 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 1: of Atlanta. How about that? Is that true? True? I 55 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: don't know, eter, I love a good pun. Okay, So 56 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: maybe wild or weird or crazy markets is maybe even 57 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: an understatement. So Mike mentioned that we are seeing this 58 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 1: resurgence in meme stocks, in crypto, etcetera, etcetera. Maybe can 59 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: you just talk about what's behind this sudden new interest 60 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: in stocks. As we turned the page onto three and 61 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: as the year is getting started, sure, and I think 62 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 1: in the at the onset you mentioned, hey, is this 63 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: something the beginning of something that's sustainable, and we're skeptical. 64 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: You said also turn the corner, I think, or maybe 65 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: the calendar, and I think that's what's happened. If you 66 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: think about late last year, we saw actually a lot 67 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: of tax laws selling. We saw the market, the SNP 68 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: have this kind of correction in December around five or 69 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: six percent. So I think as you turned the calendar, 70 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: a lot of these areas that were beat up, that 71 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: was sold off late last year, or seeing this meme 72 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: reverse and in January is often the time when you 73 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: see that mean reversion. I would say this, Uh, you know, 74 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: if you think about the meme stocks, those typically will 75 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 1: do well in a period of you know, rising liquidity, 76 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: and we're still taking away liquidity. So we just don't 77 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: think it's sustainable. We think it's more of a balance, 78 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: but we would be fading that balance, you know. Keith, 79 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: I know in your outlook for three talk about the 80 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: need to remain defensive. What does that mean in this environment? 81 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: The notion of defense to me, I think it kind 82 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 1: of changes with the times. You know, for a while 83 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: there it felt like big cap tech was defensive, you know, 84 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: during the pandemic. What's a good defensive strategy look like 85 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: these days? Sure? And uh, you know, we moved to 86 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 1: a an underweight position and equities at the end of October, 87 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: and we went to an overweight position in fixed income. 88 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: And as we're thinking about kind of big picture ASCID allocation, 89 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 1: you know, we think that the macro risk at large, 90 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 1: we think there's still somewhat elevated recession risk, and we 91 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: look at you know, equities and and credit we just 92 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: don't think you're being compensated. At best. You can say, 93 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: with the correction we had last year, equities and maybe 94 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: fairly valued credit markets are actually you know, to us, 95 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 1: very expensive relative to the risk. So being defensive from 96 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: a stock, bonds and cast perspective is being overweight fixed 97 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: income relative to equities, and then in the fixed income component, 98 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: keeping it simple, keeping with high quality fixed income and 99 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: not really taking a lot of credit risk at this point, 100 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 1: and then more kind of moving down a little bit, Mike, 101 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: you know, when we think about the overall markets, I 102 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: think you also have to go below the markets surface. 103 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: As you mentioned, tech is still not leadership, so we've 104 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: been seeing more opportunities below the markets surface, things like 105 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: they equated SMP. And then lastly, more of on a 106 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 1: sector standpoint, bar bellan kind of defensive sectors like healthcare 107 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: with things like energy and industrials that have some unique circumstances, 108 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 1: you know, in this environment. So Keith, just going with 109 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,480 Speaker 1: that defensive team, I think you are also for seeing 110 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 1: you US recession this year, right, whereas we've had some 111 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: people coming out recently and being maybe a bit more 112 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: optimistic or saying that any potential recession is likely to 113 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: be pushed back or delayed. So tell us about what 114 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: you're projecting for the economy. Sure, and I think we 115 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: all know if we do a recessing it will be 116 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: the most called one beforehand in history. But listen, we 117 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: follow the way to the evidence, and we look at 118 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: some timely indicators and with those indicators, whether it's the 119 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: deep and version of the yield curve, the leading economic 120 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: indicators which are down more than four percent on a 121 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: year over year basis, you know housing market which peaked 122 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: last year, those historically suggests elevated recession risk. But you know, 123 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: as we look even at the yield curve, when you say, okay, 124 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: on average, once you invert, which happened last year, that 125 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: would push us more into the middle to the fall 126 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 1: of neck of this year. So you know, as far 127 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 1: as the recession, and I would say, right now, the 128 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: data suggests we are not in recession, but we still 129 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,159 Speaker 1: think there's risk of one happening later this year. I 130 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,039 Speaker 1: think the biggest reason behind that is, as we all know, 131 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: as we've all been talking about the last year, we've 132 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: had the most aggressive increase in monetary policy, not only 133 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: domestically but also globally in the last forty years, and 134 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: we just think that's gonna weigh on growth as we 135 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: move further into this year. Keith, one theme I keep 136 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: hearing people talk about a lot this year is UH 137 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: the outperformance of the rest of the world versus the US. 138 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: And I'm looking at UH some of your positioning advice here. 139 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: You rank international developed equity markets and emerging markets as 140 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: sort of the less attractive side there, which I find 141 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: interesting because there is there does seem to be a 142 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: lot of bullishness elsewhere towards you know, the rest of 143 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: the world excluding the US. So walk us through what 144 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: you're seeing that makes you sort of want to stay 145 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: away from international equities. Sure, and maybe a little context. 146 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: I mean, we've been big bows on the US for 147 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: for several years. UH. Fortunately, I've benefited from the big 148 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: outperformance because we've been thinking the U s is that 149 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: big blue chip country. And if you look at this 150 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: kind of simply, the earning trends for the US have 151 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 1: been so much stronger than the rest of the globe. 152 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: You know, international markets have done really well. And if 153 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: you think about why that is, I think there's two 154 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: main factors. One, the climate in Europe was much warmer 155 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: than expected, so the energy crisis that a lot of 156 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: folks were concerned about just didn't happen. So that's one positive. 157 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: And then the second positive, which was unexpected was basically 158 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 1: China ripping the band aid off of COVID and in 159 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: europe's a big trading partners. So so with all that said, 160 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: I listen, I think that's an area where focusing on 161 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: right now on a short term basis. You know, if 162 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: you look at the last two or three months, it's 163 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: had one of the biggest outperformance periods UH in the 164 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: last twenty or thirty years. So our position is things 165 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 1: are getting more interest in there you've had a big 166 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: run because of these unexpected events that have broken the 167 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: right way. We would be looking more potentially to upgrade 168 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: that on a consolidation or pull back after such a 169 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: strong move up that we've seen. But again in the 170 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: in the grand scheme the last ten years, it's really 171 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 1: still underperformed by a wide margin. Is that part of 172 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: being more defensive too, is leaning more towards US than 173 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: than international traditionally. Yes, but I would say, you know, 174 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: we all somewhat and and been underweight tech for several months, 175 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: So it's not just as simple as saying, hey, by 176 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred, we've been a big advocate over 177 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,839 Speaker 1: the last year and still are of the equal weated SMP, 178 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: which basically is a proxy for the average stock. It's 179 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: not weighed down so much by these big megacap tech stocks, 180 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: and evaluations are more reasonable. If you look at a 181 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: relative price chart, you're basically at a four year relative 182 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: high to the overall market. So it's almost like a period. 183 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: It's an echo of two thousand where you want to 184 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 1: start looking different or and we've been doing that over 185 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: the last year than just the SNP five hundred. It's 186 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: not just buying that index and sitting back because we 187 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: just don't see tech as leadership likely even for the 188 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: next cycle. Okay, tell us more about your preference for 189 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: the equal weight in next because it has been outperforming 190 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks. And basically what that 191 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: shows us is that there's just the rally has been 192 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 1: more broad based than previously, right correct, And as I mentioned, 193 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: we really started a getting more interested, you know, early 194 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: last year when when tech valuation has got pretty expensive. 195 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,719 Speaker 1: And the way to think about it is tech communications 196 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: and growth or allocation within the SMP became so large. 197 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: We all know about the famoustocks and how large each 198 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: of those individual companies. So what we're seeing is it's 199 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: kind of reallocation from these really heavyweight growth areas to 200 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: these smaller weight you know, value cyclical areas of the 201 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: market and even some of the defensive areas. So we 202 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: we're seeing this rotation and we just expect that's likely 203 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: to continue. And unlike you know, big cap Tech, which 204 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 1: has corrected a lot, but still I would say is 205 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: not cheap from a historical standpoint, the average stock is 206 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: training close to to about a fifteen times multiple. Again, 207 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's deeply cheap, but it's it's more 208 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 1: reasonable also from that perspective as well. Yeah, Keith, one 209 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 1: note of yours that cut my eye. You called the 210 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: reverse portrayed presumably David Tepper, is this betting against the 211 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers? Is that what this straight is all about? 212 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: Against them? I assume that's not it, but to talk 213 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: to us what it really is. Yeah, I have some 214 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 1: I have some relativis in uh Charlotte and in laws 215 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: and also now our headquarters for druous is in Charlotte. 216 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: So I'm not going to be rooting against them, but 217 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 1: that's not the gave me any uh anything client exactly. 218 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 1: So the way we put this out a note out 219 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: mid last year, which is interesting. I saw him about 220 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: it probably about a week after we put this note out, 221 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: and he basically validated of you. I did send an 222 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: email to David and said, hey, if I always send 223 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: this out, I haven't heard back, so maybe he'll listen 224 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: to your podcast an email. But the way we're thinking 225 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 1: about it is this. If you remember back, you know, 226 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: coming out of the financial crisis around I think it 227 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: was around two thousand and ten. Back then, David made 228 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: a very cojin point. It was very simple. He said, basically, 229 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: either the economy is going to get better and that's 230 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: gonna help stocks out, or the economy has the weekend 231 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: and the FED is going to step in and support 232 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: the market. So it's almost like a wind win proposition. 233 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: So in some ways you have almost the polar opposite 234 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 1: of that today and next goes back to the whole 235 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: question about recession or not. Is one either the economy 236 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 1: is going to stay somewhat strong and that's gonna force 237 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 1: the FED to continue to be somewhat tight, or the 238 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: economy is going to weaken, which is gonna hit corporate profits, 239 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: and if you're training out of seventeen and a half multiple, 240 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: there's some downside risk. To be fair, there there is 241 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: a third scenario, which the market has started to buy 242 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,439 Speaker 1: into a little bit. Is this kind of soft landing 243 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 1: where the economy, you know, slows down but doesn't go 244 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: into recession. Inflation is coming down rapidly, and there is 245 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: some probability. We just don't think it's high probability. And 246 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons over all, while we still 247 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: remain defensive, because you're just not being compensated for the 248 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: macro risk that we're seeing, at least not today. I 249 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: wanted to ask you, speaking of the FED, how the 250 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: recent rally in stocks actually works against the Fed's goals. Right, 251 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: So we have a loosening of financial conditions and it's 252 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: not exactly like the FED wants to be seeing stocks rallying, 253 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: That's right, And I mean it's it's not just the 254 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: equity market. Also, you look at the credit markets. I mean, 255 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: look how yield spreads are back to where where they 256 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: were several months ago. So we're not embedding any uh, 257 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: you know, recession risks as a whole. And I think 258 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 1: if you're the FED and you're focused on financial conditions 259 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: which you can impact, I think at some point they're 260 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: gonna start jaw boarding the market again. So I think 261 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 1: that's that's a challenge. And then also you know the 262 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: unemployment rate. You know, if you're in the soft landing camp, 263 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate is still at three and a half percent. 264 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: I mean, that's not a place where even if you 265 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: see disinflationary trends that we think the Fed's going to 266 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 1: take their foot off the pedal, at least on the 267 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 1: jaw boarding side. And we also think the FED has 268 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: some scard tissue from what's happened over the last year, 269 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: which will make them maybe not as aggressive when they 270 00:13:53,280 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: do eventually pin. So talk us through what you're thinking 271 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: from the Fed. You know, this week we did get 272 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: some some new inflation data. The p p I index, Uh, 273 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: it was down half a percentage point month over month 274 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: UM at the same time we saw downward surprise and 275 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: retail sales uh, you know, down more than one percent. 276 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: Some of the regional FED indexes have been pretty bad. 277 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: You know, is this enough to make the FED at 278 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: least pause after maybe another fifty basis points or or 279 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: what we're we're how do you see it all playing 280 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: out in in sort of the first half of the 281 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: year with the Fed? Yeah, I think in general they 282 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: probably should be somewhat happy. Looking does look like we're 283 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: seeing this inflation any precious CPI looks like it it 284 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: did come down, you know, the rents we all know 285 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: is going to work with the lag. So I think 286 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 1: they should be you know, probably the p p I 287 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, I think, well, they'll be happy that 288 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: things I'm moving in the right directions. And but you know, 289 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: even if they all go into pivot I don't think 290 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: they're gonna let you know that. I mean, there's no 291 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: reason for them to really, you know, talk too too 292 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: much about taking their their foot off the pedal, even 293 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: though it's more likely to the point is probably another 294 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: fifty basis points or so to go and then just 295 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: to pause and then just to hold. And going back 296 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: to the premise of scar tissue, this is when we 297 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: started talking about a lot last year. Is that you know, 298 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: for for over you know, two decades, the Fed really 299 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: didn't have to worry about inflation, right if you think 300 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: about coming out of the financial crisis or the printing 301 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: back then, which actually looks small relative to the last 302 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: couple of years, There was all this discussion about inflation, inflation, inflation, 303 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: it never came, so that really gave the Fed the 304 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: green light to come in at any point to support 305 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: the market. Well, this is the first time in decades 306 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: they've had to worry about inflation. So we think that 307 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: scar tissue of what's happened over the last year is 308 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: going to make them, you know, more reluctant to be aggressive. 309 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: And I think one of the things, you know, if 310 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: we do have a recession, which again is that based 311 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: case I think there's a lot of discussion is this 312 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: gonna be harder soft? I think a lot of the 313 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: things like the labor market load, delinquency rates suggests maybe, 314 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: you know, somewhat short and shallow. But at the risk 315 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: is this is not much of a you know, much 316 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: of a policy response relatives to the past if we 317 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: have some type of outlier event, and that's the risk. 318 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: What about this idea that the reopening in China can 319 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: complicate what the feed is trying to do in that 320 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: with their reopening, we could maybe see a resurgence in 321 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: inflation numbers here in the US. I'm wondering about that, 322 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: and also how maybe whatever is going on with China 323 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: might complicate your outlook as well. Yeah, no, it's I mean, 324 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: and that's the thing. You can look back at history. 325 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: There's a historical playbook, but you know, the historical playbooks 326 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 1: likely challenged because, I mean, how many times that we 327 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: have the most of the global slowering and then the 328 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: second largest economy actually stimulating and also showing um economic 329 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: growth which is certainly likely to be much higher than 330 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: the past year in China with the stimulus. So to 331 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: your point, I do think if you know, as China reopens, 332 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: that likely put some upward pressure on commodities at least 333 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: support maybe what won't go down as much as as typical. 334 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: And that's where I think that the main translation could 335 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: be for the fad is if some of these commodity 336 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: prices stay higher for longer because of that, I will say, 337 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: just like what we experienced here in the US, a 338 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: lot of I think what you're gonna see is more 339 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 1: of kind of this pent up consuming spending, especially on 340 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 1: the service side. Um. But then I saw a stat 341 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: this week, Um, you think about them reopening. I haven't 342 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: verified it, but it came from a legitimate sources. Every 343 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: call is that in twenty nine, tourism from China to Europe, 344 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: I want to say it was or the amount of 345 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: nights UM stayed from Chinese tourists and Europe was like 346 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:38,120 Speaker 1: twenty million, and then one that fell to about one 347 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: and a half million, again million plus to one point 348 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 1: five million, And that wasn't at the end of one 349 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: We don't even have the stats for the last year. 350 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: So if they just you know, go back to half 351 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 1: and start traveling, and I'm sure there's a lot of 352 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: folks that are antsy to to to start traveling again. Um, 353 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: that's that's huge, that's huge demand and probably one of 354 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 1: the reasons going back to the question about the Nascal, 355 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: you've seen this this really v shaped rebound and international markets. Yeah, 356 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 1: probably good for the Euro too, I would assume gets 357 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: get a rebound there too. Keith, I know one thing 358 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: you said in your outlook is you need to remain 359 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: tactical this year. So I'm curious what sort of signs 360 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: it would take or what sort of market action you 361 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 1: would need to see to get you in the bullish 362 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 1: camp of things. You know, what is there any sort 363 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: of target you have for the market or or something 364 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: that would make you go, you know, now now is 365 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: the time to really jump in with both feet into 366 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: the stocks, into growth, into you know, all these things 367 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: were kind of shirking at the moment. Sure, and you know, 368 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: we don't have a specific price targets. We will find 369 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: it more helpful to have kind of conditions and then 370 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: you know, use the way of the evidence. So a 371 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 1: lot of times when we say be tactical, like last year, 372 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: as I mentioned, we've had we had six moves of 373 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: at least ten percent in the market right three to 374 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 1: the downside three to the up side. So I think 375 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: as this whole debate rages on about hard landings, soft landing, China, 376 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: reopening Europe, I think we don't have those toctical opportunities 377 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,439 Speaker 1: as well. So things that we would be looking for, 378 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: I guess to take money off the table, like maybe 379 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: start there is you know, we combine you know, valuations. 380 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 1: So like if you think about this market, you know 381 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: as an eighteen p has been kind of a you know, 382 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: top end of the range even before the pandemic around 383 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: eighteen and a half. And then you look at some 384 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: technical things like even with the recent rally, we were 385 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: now the most overboard we've been for a few months. 386 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: To us, the risky ward is not the compelling as 387 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 1: you kind of moved from you know, four thousand, forty 388 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: one hundred to the other side. More direct to your question, 389 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: you know what gives more positive fire lower prices and 390 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 1: and sentiment that gets a bit washed out, more and 391 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: cheap evaluations. So and when we think of back around 392 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: um October, we were around you know, thirty five hundred 393 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 1: or so trading around the fifteen multiple sentiment very negative, 394 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 1: and we saw our technical indicator is very oversold. That's 395 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: the same thing that we're looking for. And I think, listen, 396 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 1: you're not gonna we're not trying to top bomb ticking 397 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: to this. It's in possible, But I'll focus is there's 398 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 1: gonna be these extremes. And when we start to see 399 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: those conditions moved an extreme, we want to be a 400 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,199 Speaker 1: tactical to add risk or take risk off. So I 401 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: would say maybe the point now, I mean, if we 402 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: get back closer to those loads, to us, that would 403 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: be more interesting, where today we just don't th think 404 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: things are that compelling relative to the risk. So you 405 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: mentioned the overbought conditions, and you are somebody who pays 406 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: a lot of attention to technical indicators and technical signals. 407 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: So I want to ask you what what specifically you're 408 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: paying attention to these days, given the rally that we've 409 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: seen broadly speaking, and how important maybe something like the 410 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: two hundred day moving averages for the SMP five, which 411 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: I believe we failed to break out above once again. 412 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: I think it was the fourth or fifth time over 413 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: the past year that we failed to do that. Sure, 414 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: And sometimes you know, as we look at fundamentals and 415 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: technical sometimes they conflict and sometimes they're in alignment obviously 416 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 1: the high probability outcomes and when they're more aligned, I 417 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: would say this kind of mixed readings. UM. You know, 418 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: the tun to day movement average, it's it's more just 419 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: a reflection of trend, and we've seen that the market 420 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: got above it below it. I really think the level 421 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 1: is probably the more key level near term from a 422 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: technical level. If you were able to get above that, 423 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 1: I think that would you know, the technical trends would improve. UM. 424 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: But so far we've been able to we failed there, 425 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: So that's something to kind of keep an eye on. 426 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: And then you know, again, if we can come on 427 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: level and we say okay, what multiple are you at 428 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: that level and say okay, you'd be around almost an eighteen, 429 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 1: you kind of combine those things. To me, that's more powerful. 430 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: You know. It's something that in the technical community community 431 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: in which I follow a lot, is we we saw 432 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: you've gotten some things that what's called these kind of 433 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: breath through us between we've had earlier this year, we've 434 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 1: had a lot of participation, and when you have a 435 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: lot of participation, especially over a ten day period, historically 436 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: you have these signals that are called breath for us 437 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: where you know, you have more of a like a 438 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: two to one ratio of advancing into the client stocks 439 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: over a period, and when you test that out looking 440 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,959 Speaker 1: at a year, they have a high probability of success. 441 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: And actually, as you come out of our market downturn, 442 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: you want to see really strong breath. You want to 443 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 1: see the market getting very extended overboard. But I will 444 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: say what's tricky this time is we had a couple 445 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 1: of thrust last year that failed. And this is in 446 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 1: the case I've been using since the nineteen uh you know, 447 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: the nineties, and it's plus beat rate or positive rate, 448 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: and we had to that fail. So at this point, 449 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: I think it's encouraging that we've seen some of that. 450 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 1: Because of the macro condition, because of where the valuations are, 451 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: keeps us somewhat more skeptical. The other thing that I 452 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: think you want to look at is just you know, 453 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: where's the leadership And right now, if you if you 454 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 1: go sector by sector in this market, it's hard really 455 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: to see where the leadership is. Tech made a relative 456 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: low at the end of last year. It's bounced back, 457 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: you know, so okay, communications bounce back from an over 458 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: soul condition. You know, finances were doing a bit better, 459 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,640 Speaker 1: but now kind of given some of that back. Defensive 460 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: which we've been more positive on, their kind of mixed. 461 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 1: So what I'm looking for is will the will sector 462 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,360 Speaker 1: leadership please stand up because you just have a lack 463 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 1: of that right now. Broadly, as far as what I'm 464 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: looking at, do you think it would be more of 465 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: a factor leadership, you know, value over growth something like that. Yeah, 466 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 1: I mean, I do think it makes sense. It seemed 467 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: like there's more of a consensus view that values should 468 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 1: have perform were we are overweight value and part of 469 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 1: the reason why a world word value is you had also, 470 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: you know, a decade of underperformance and we were skeptical 471 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 1: that technology, after the big gains has had over the 472 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: last decade, regains leadership. So we just we still like 473 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 1: areas that have some unique things like industrials thinking about 474 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: restoring there's a lot of discussion about the defense spending domestically, 475 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: but think about over in Europe as far as a 476 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 1: rising defense spending over time or even our strategic you know, 477 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: battle with China, like but it's probably going to be 478 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: more you know, the defense spending over time. Secondly, so 479 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: we still like that yeah, so again that would kind 480 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 1: of lead you more towards a value tilt relatives to growth. Mike, 481 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: I have to call you out about overweight. No, oh 482 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: my gosh, no, you just talking about being overweight. I 483 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: am skipped right over Keith's eminem reference. Yeah, I hoping 484 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: that was good. I caught it, of course I did. 485 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 1: But I want to share something with you what I 486 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 1: did today and chat GPT, which is I guess the 487 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 1: buzz right now right, Yeah. I did a search for 488 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: eight style rap with the Federal Reserve and I was 489 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 1: very impressed with what it came back, so put together 490 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: a rap song for me. I just need a chorus, 491 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: and I was gonna ask, uh, since you are also 492 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: good on these podcasts, maybe Mike and you could join 493 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 1: the chorus with me. Oh my gosh, you need to 494 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: send Yeah, whatever lyrics that came up with, you need 495 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,640 Speaker 1: to send them to us. I think Keith wants to rap. 496 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: I think I think he does. You'll have to. You'll 497 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: have to come back next week with the whole like 498 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 1: song wrap time. Okay, Yeah, you need to. You need 499 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: to share this with us, absolutely, we'll tweet it. I 500 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 1: didn't know chat GBT when gangster like that. That's interesting. Yeah, 501 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: it's funny. Even the rappers are in trouble. I guess well, 502 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: you know, honestly, I would be a little bit nervous 503 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 1: if you saw this, uh, the lyrics that he came 504 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: up with. Because over the weekend, um, you know, I 505 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: was talking to one of my colleagues and I was 506 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 1: like saying, let's see if chat GPT can tell me 507 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,199 Speaker 1: what happens to the market after it's down, you know, 508 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 1: and he's like, oh, you're using it wrong. You can 509 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: you know, you can basically ask it to develop a 510 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 1: poem or I love let it to your significant other. 511 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, so it's it's pretty impressive. I can't 512 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: wait to see. It's impressive and scary for people in 513 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: our business. It's very scary if market stories can be 514 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: uh written by k let's um, let's move over to 515 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: the fundamental side for a minute. Be because I feel 516 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: like just about everyone I've talked to recently does not 517 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:10,159 Speaker 1: believe the earnings estimates that we're looking after three Almost 518 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: to a person, especially top down people such as yourself, think, uh, 519 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: no way do we get you know, any sort of 520 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: positive earnings growth this year? I think Sevita Subramanian last 521 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: week on the show talking about a ten percent drop 522 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 1: in earnings UH, which I I feel like would be 523 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: a pretty ugly outcome for this market if they if 524 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,919 Speaker 1: they sniff that type of outcome coming UH for the 525 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: whole year. How are you thinking about earnings? You know, 526 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: we've gotten that first trickle of earnings, a lot of 527 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 1: the banks, a few other companies, UH starting to get 528 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: more into the industrials and whatnot, anything pop out for 529 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: this reporting season, and especially how you're thinking about the 530 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,199 Speaker 1: whole year as far as earnings growth were lack thereof 531 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: sure And maybe before I go specifically to earnings, I 532 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 1: think even if you have a view that earnings are 533 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 1: going to be stable and that the void earing estimates 534 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: for this year, which is around two thirty for the SNP, 535 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: is the right earning estimates, which which we're a skeptical of. 536 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 1: Even at that, you're still treating at you know, around 537 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 1: the seventeen and a half multiple. So and now if 538 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 1: you think that there's earnings risk, which we do, then 539 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 1: the the PE multiple is actually above that. So that's 540 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 1: so I think at this point again, thinking about risk reward, 541 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 1: I think right now even using that it's just not 542 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: that favorable on them that But going to specifically to 543 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: your question, one thing we look at is trend earnings 544 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 1: over a cycle. And when we do that and we 545 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: look at trend earnings, that does bring us to a number, 546 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: you know, closer to two hundred for the SMP. Whether 547 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: that happens you know, by the end of this year 548 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: or early into next year, you know, is debatable. But 549 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 1: I think there's more downside and and you know, historically 550 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: around recessions, as most of us know, is that earnings 551 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: go down about I think that's a bit severe. I 552 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,159 Speaker 1: think companies have done a tremendous job of handling this downturn, 553 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: and you know, so I think something in the ten 554 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: percent um you know, hairdcut is more reasonable to expect. 555 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 1: But again, if you if you apply that haircut and 556 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,120 Speaker 1: you look at market valuations, you're just not that attractive, 557 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: especially relative to where yields are. You know, the yields 558 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 1: are about um well not anymore. They were almost double 559 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: the tenure average, but they've obviously pulled back here, uh 560 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: in the last last few weeks. And Mike mentioned we've 561 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 1: already heard from some of the banks and the some 562 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,240 Speaker 1: of the earning s reports have started to trickle out. 563 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 1: So what from what we've seen so far has stood 564 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: out to you and in terms of any big themes 565 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: or any worrying signals you Honestly, it's it's a bit premature. 566 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,679 Speaker 1: I mean, we had the financials, it was mixed. You 567 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: saw you know, differences from you know, if if folks 568 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 1: businesses that that depend on investment, banking, um and trading 569 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 1: versus wealth management. So I don't know if there's a 570 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 1: big read there. I will say going into the earnings 571 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: this earning season, there were a lot of estimate cuts. Um, 572 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: what I'm gonna really be focused on as we get 573 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: you know, more broader earnings that get a better tells 574 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 1: you know, what's happening on the inflation side, and also 575 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: what's honestly, consumers pushed back a bit more, right, so 576 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 1: that's gonna hurt margines. Margins are still near record levels, 577 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: have come down some, but also where those margins are. 578 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: But again, I think it's a bit premature to have 579 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: a good feel. I expect that it will be somewhat 580 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 1: of a mixed earnings period and we're going to start 581 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 1: this show more weakness in the courts ahead as the 582 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: economy shows more substantial weakening that way we've seen because 583 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: well if you look at Atlanta GDP now and some 584 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 1: of these things, the the overall economy is still held 585 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: in there pretty decently into the fourth quarter. That's what 586 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: guys in Atlanta. Look at the Atlanta GDP now. Yes, 587 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 1: I think, if I'm not mistaken, your bills might play 588 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 1: a playoff game in Atlanta? Isn't that true? If all 589 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: goes right? Hello, knock on all the wood all around you, 590 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: so you'll get a playoff game after all? Keith that 591 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 1: we look forward to it. But a diplomatic answer. Yeah. Um. 592 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 1: Just to wrap things up here, Uh, one thing about 593 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 1: the end. It's not necessarily earning season itself that's bringing 594 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 1: it out, but just coincidentally, is um seeing some really 595 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: sort of alarming uh job layoff announcements? Uh you know 596 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 1: we're recording here. On Wednesday. Microsoft just announced ten thousand layoffs. Amazon, 597 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 1: I think announce something like eighteen thousand. We've seen the 598 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 1: banks a lot of some layoffs, you know, more than 599 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: your typical uh calling of the flocket goldman that sort 600 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 1: of thing. Yet we still have this just off the 601 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 1: charts number of job openings, uh near record low unemployment. Um, 602 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 1: how do you see that all playing out? You know, 603 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 1: is it a matter of there's you know, people losing 604 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: good high end tech jobs and picking up the slack 605 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 1: on the low end the service jobs that are available, 606 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 1: and and it sort of becomes a wash but a 607 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: much lower paying uh sort of job for some of 608 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 1: these people that that got laid off, or or how 609 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 1: do you see it playing out from a macro perspective? 610 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: It it's certainly job cuts can be uh sadly be 611 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: good news for the company's individual share price, But I 612 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 1: wonder at what point we have to start worrying about 613 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 1: it from the macro level as far as the signal 614 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: it's sending. Sure, any right, I Mean this just goes 615 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 1: to the kind of the complexity of the not only market, 616 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: but the economy. I think the high profile tech job 617 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: layoffs that you're seeing, I think that's a function that 618 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 1: there was so much demand that was brought forward. If 619 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: you look at you know, Microsoftics and Meta and Amazon, 620 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: look at where their job levels, employment levels were in 621 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen, and then compare where it is now. 622 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: I mean, we're in some of these areas were forty above, 623 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 1: so they you know, if you look back now based 624 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: on you know, that kind of pull forward the oversupplied 625 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 1: of workers. So I still think we'll see a reallocation. 626 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 1: You know, there was I think there was a Wallhreet 627 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 1: Journal article last week that discussed that these tech folks 628 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: are being laid off. The good news is they're finding 629 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: other jobs relatively quickly. The service side still seems relatively 630 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 1: strong with seeing that some of the airlines and if 631 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 1: anyone goes through a restaurant out it still seems somewhat buoyant. 632 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 1: But I do think as we move later in the year, 633 00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: probably by mid year, I think you'll start to see 634 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 1: that pick up to more levels. I mean more it's 635 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 1: the somewhat high levels, I should say, because initial job 636 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: as claims, even though we see these big headlines, has 637 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 1: still been you know, pretty pretty low by historical standards. 638 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 1: But we do think that's going to eventually start to 639 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 1: move up and at some point to remember that the 640 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: job market is one of its like the most lagging 641 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: indicator that we have, right it's one of the last 642 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 1: things that turned before a recession um as well. So 643 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: that's also I think coursing some confusion, Keith Learner of 644 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 1: Truest great to get your thoughts on the market. I 645 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: hope we can have you back again one day. But 646 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 1: with your rap. Yeah yeah, we needs a rap name. 647 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,280 Speaker 1: We've got to get him a rep name. Let me think, 648 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 1: help meat. You you're all good at you know, making 649 00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:01,480 Speaker 1: something sound better than it is. Right, that's that's that's 650 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: why she's my partner. You're up to the challenge. I 651 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:06,479 Speaker 1: think a lot of good rap out of Atlanta. So 652 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: he's he's he's coming from it's coming from a good 653 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 1: pedigree down there. But Keith, we can't let you go 654 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 1: until we hear the craziest thing you heard from markets 655 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,560 Speaker 1: this week. But since Phildon is bragging about having three 656 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 1: or two or however, why don't you start? I have to. 657 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 1: I'm melding them together into one theme, which is that 658 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: formerly maybe we can call them disgrace crypto people making 659 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:37,120 Speaker 1: a comeback. Another rapper, crypto comeback, Yes, another rapper. So 660 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: one is Heather Morgan, also known as the Crocodile of 661 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 1: Wall Street Razzle Razzle con Yes that's right, is her 662 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: rap name. So she she was infamous for her for 663 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: her rap videos and wrap and for and for stealing 664 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 1: a lot bitcoin four point five billion worth of bitcoin 665 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 1: from bitin x. So the story this week is that 666 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,360 Speaker 1: she was offered a job at a tech company in 667 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: the role this This is quote from the story in 668 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 1: the role of growth marketing and business development specialists. So 669 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 1: how bad can the tech job market really be? When 670 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 1: someone out on bail for allegedly having a few billion 671 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 1: and stolen bits on house arrest and I think that 672 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:25,280 Speaker 1: they asked the judge to okay her going to the office. 673 00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:30,799 Speaker 1: I would love to hear her bosses explain me too. 674 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 1: We don't know which tech company. I have another one though, Okay, 675 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: you remember the two co founders of three A C. 676 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,359 Speaker 1: So that's the crypto hedge fund that blew up last May, 677 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 1: last June. So the two of them, Suzu and Kyle Davies. 678 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,840 Speaker 1: They're looking to raise twenty five million dollars for a 679 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:54,319 Speaker 1: new venture, which is a crypto exchange. They're looking to 680 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 1: do it a SAP and the name that they had 681 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:01,720 Speaker 1: on the pitch decks was g t X, which sounds 682 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 1: very very similar to f t X g t X. 683 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 1: What's its sent today? Comes after? It's just the next 684 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 1: next next episode as they said plus one. I bet 685 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 1: they got it too. I'm gonna go out on them 686 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,840 Speaker 1: and say that they raised that money probably from razzle 687 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:25,239 Speaker 1: con herself. All right, Keith Vildonna came prepared. But how 688 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 1: about you you see anything crazy recently in markets? I 689 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,719 Speaker 1: don't think it's as fun as Orville Donna has, but 690 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 1: I was thinking more kind of interesting from our market perspective, 691 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: which we touched on, is that, you know, the European 692 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,200 Speaker 1: banks have ripped up, and we have you know a 693 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 1: lot of these fang and technology stocks down forty and 694 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: as you think about the last you know, decade before, 695 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 1: you know, before the pandemic, it was all about low rates, 696 00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: you know, paying a premium for growth, and probably the 697 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,439 Speaker 1: most hated asset out there was these European banks that 698 00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,160 Speaker 1: got hurt from all those things. So it's interesting that 699 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:04,280 Speaker 1: we're seeing now, you know, a period of QT somewhat 700 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,720 Speaker 1: higher interest rates, somewhat higher inflation, and these European banks, 701 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,920 Speaker 1: the the unloved asset, which I have a lot of problems, 702 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 1: by the way, still UM ripping an out performance. So 703 00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,920 Speaker 1: that was that was one not as cool as Danna's 704 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,640 Speaker 1: UM and thenb just one follow up to because I 705 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,520 Speaker 1: need to to have and this is not that fun. 706 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,160 Speaker 1: But I just I think another thing that came out recently, 707 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,239 Speaker 1: and I think what we saw this with the U 708 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:32,480 Speaker 1: n UM talking about China's population over the next century 709 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,200 Speaker 1: will decline by about six hundred million, and I think 710 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,320 Speaker 1: we most of us probably saw that headline. But to 711 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 1: put that in perspective, that's two times the population of 712 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 1: the US. Almost you know that that decline. So those 713 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,279 Speaker 1: are my my two. But again, I really feel like 714 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,319 Speaker 1: that was a tough follow up to that. Mine are better. 715 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 1: Don't tell yourself. Rally and European banks, if you had 716 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,400 Speaker 1: told anyone that a few years ago, I think they 717 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 1: would degree it's that that's the craziest thing anyone's seen. 718 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 1: Pretty good. All right, I'll give you mine. I'm dipping 719 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,960 Speaker 1: back into the alternative asset class that I love so much. Uh. 720 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 1: Kobe Bryant's jersey listing on Southby's up for auction. So 721 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 1: this is one of the jerseys he wore in the 722 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 1: two thousand and seven two thousand and eight season he 723 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,440 Speaker 1: was m v P. They went to the finals and 724 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,279 Speaker 1: I think they got beat by Boston. I'd have to 725 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,040 Speaker 1: I'd have to double check that UH, and I got 726 00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,799 Speaker 1: the story. It's a c NBC story courtesy of the 727 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 1: Twitter handle at Zalvani. At Salvanni a new UH contributor 728 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,319 Speaker 1: to the Craziest Thing, so we thank thank him. To me, 729 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 1: what the expected price for this jersey is not the 730 00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,680 Speaker 1: interesting part of it. They think it will go for 731 00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 1: as much as seven million dollars. That's what I was 732 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:51,040 Speaker 1: going to guess. Of course you were, of course, which 733 00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,800 Speaker 1: they say will be the highest priced piece of Kobe 734 00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:57,440 Speaker 1: Bryant memorabilia ever ever to go up to me, The 735 00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:01,239 Speaker 1: interesting thing is how many times be Brian were this 736 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:05,760 Speaker 1: jersey in a game? So to play the prices precise, Keith, 737 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,640 Speaker 1: you two are gonna have to tell me how many 738 00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,359 Speaker 1: times you think he wore this jersey. It's a home jersey, 739 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 1: and I'll give you some stats here that that might 740 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 1: help you out. Eighty two games regular season games in 741 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 1: the NBA, plus another about playoff and and finals games, 742 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:29,000 Speaker 1: so call it hundred and change games home jersey. So 743 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:34,200 Speaker 1: he'd be wearing a her home jersey at approximately called 744 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:38,920 Speaker 1: fifty games in the season. How many times do you 745 00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,200 Speaker 1: think he were this particular jersey in a game? And 746 00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,480 Speaker 1: it's surprising to me. Do you want to have Keith 747 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:49,480 Speaker 1: go first? Keith, what do you think we're playing by 748 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,120 Speaker 1: the price is right? Because then she gets the advantage. Yes, 749 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:56,920 Speaker 1: but it's but it's called the price is precisely Okay, 750 00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:59,840 Speaker 1: I'll happily go first because I haven't answer you. Go, 751 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,600 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say once, because he wore it once, like 752 00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,399 Speaker 1: why would he wear it again? He's just he's a million, right, 753 00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,920 Speaker 1: He's not like some journeyman signed from the EuroLeague. He 754 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,680 Speaker 1: has so many he had so many jersey, new jersey 755 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,920 Speaker 1: every night. Yeah, exactly right. I'm going with once. I'm 756 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: gonna going to the side. Then I'm gonna go I'm 757 00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,959 Speaker 1: gonna go fifty. I'm gonna say what I said every 758 00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 1: single day. She's gonna say once. I'm gonna say every 759 00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 1: single day he slept with that. I think we gotta push. 760 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,319 Speaker 1: It's twenty five times he were this jersey wow, which 761 00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 1: to me was surprising. On the high side, I'm with you, 762 00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 1: I would think one I'm going to wear a new 763 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:42,160 Speaker 1: jersey every night, I'm gonna auction the used jersey off 764 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,280 Speaker 1: so or throw it in the stands. Half the games 765 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,640 Speaker 1: he were the same jersey. I think that's crazy. I 766 00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:55,080 Speaker 1: don't know. Sure do I win? I think I win? 767 00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:59,839 Speaker 1: Keith went over Keith. He could have won. You knew 768 00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:03,760 Speaker 1: the traces right roles too. You know if I figured, 769 00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:05,719 Speaker 1: if I, if I gave that, maybe maybe you all 770 00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,520 Speaker 1: will have me back on. Well, we have to have 771 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,720 Speaker 1: you back on for the wrap. Yeah. Well, and Vldon 772 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: is never gonna let you live this down. But never. 773 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,719 Speaker 1: Every time we talk going forward, I'm gonna be Kobe Bright. 774 00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 1: I'm not wearing the same jersey times. You think there'd 775 00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:24,080 Speaker 1: be blood on it and be all sweaty. I don't, Mike, 776 00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:29,160 Speaker 1: you are no Kobe Bryant. That's true. That's true. Maybe 777 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:33,800 Speaker 1: that explains it. It It was his lucky jersey. That's funny. 778 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:40,120 Speaker 1: He's seen me play, Unfortunately I did. I grew up 779 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 1: right down the street from him. Basically he was Laura 780 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,600 Speaker 1: Marry and I was Westchester. Really I didn't know that. Yeah, 781 00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:50,239 Speaker 1: that's about where the comparisons. Keith Learner, great to have you. 782 00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:52,279 Speaker 1: You could have won that one. Man. I don't know. 783 00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 1: Learn your lesson. Always always go for the jugular learner 784 00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,239 Speaker 1: your lesson. I'm gonna hear that from my friends now 785 00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:05,239 Speaker 1: thanks a lot. Great to catch up with you, Keith. 786 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,239 Speaker 1: Will you hope we can get you back. Yeah, it's 787 00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:08,600 Speaker 1: been a lot of fun. Thanks so much for having me. 788 00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:20,399 Speaker 1: Thanks Keith, What Goes Up. We'll be back next week 789 00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:22,200 Speaker 1: and so then you can find us on the Bloomberg 790 00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:25,759 Speaker 1: Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. 791 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,000 Speaker 1: We'd love it if you took the time to rate 792 00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 1: and review the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners 793 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,360 Speaker 1: can find us. And you can find us on Twitter 794 00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:37,160 Speaker 1: follow me at Rea Anonymous. Well, Donna Hirich is at 795 00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:41,800 Speaker 1: bil Donna Hirich. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts. 796 00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,080 Speaker 1: What Goes Up is produced by Stacy Wong. Thanks for listening, 797 00:41:46,200 --> 00:42:03,399 Speaker 1: See you next time. The FO