1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,280 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark Mos Show, 2 00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: where we're talking about the decentralized Revolution. We're talking about 3 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: where politics, finance and technology come together. Of course, it's 4 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: always technology that changes the world, and that technology is bitcoin, 5 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution. 6 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 2: You know. 7 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 1: I like to bring to you some interesting guests. You 8 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: don't have to listen to me talk all the time, 9 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: and that's what I have today. I'm joined by VJ 10 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: Boya Patti. He's the author of the Polish Case for 11 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: Bitcoin and now previously with Google, now a senior engineer. 12 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: Was Swan a big friend of the show for sure. Anyway, VJ, 13 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: thanks for joining me. 14 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 2: Thanks Mom, it's so good to see you again. 15 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: Now, I kind of cut you off before we jumped 16 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: in here because I was explaining to you how my 17 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: Twitter account got hacked. So about almost three months ago, 18 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: I got what happened is I guess now that I've 19 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: looked into it, they got my email address, put it 20 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: into like some like spambot thing or whatever, and all 21 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: of a sudden, my email just started getting flooded with emails, 22 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: like thousands subscribed me to like thousands of like newsletters, 23 00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: and so then I figured they're going to try to 24 00:00:59,320 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: hide something. 25 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 3: There was like a password to reset for Twitter. 26 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: I was able to get in and reset my password, 27 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: but they set up a two FA divide two second 28 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: factor authentication and I've probably filled out thirty requests from 29 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: on Twitter. And interesting enough, just before I stopped, my 30 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: good friend George Gammon also had the same thing happened 31 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: to him, and he has an attorney that filed a 32 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: suit against Twitter because they're still billing us and we 33 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: can't get access, and they're responding to the suit. They're 34 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: going back and forth with the attorney, but they just 35 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: won't reset the stupid two FA. I mean, it's like 36 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: the most like just reset the two FA anyway. So 37 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,119 Speaker 1: you were going to tell me that something that you've 38 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: done to protect your privacy. 39 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's actually. One thing I've noticed is that I've 40 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 2: had friends and family who use services where they get 41 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: built on this regular cadence and then for whatever reason, 42 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: something happens with that service. They didn't like it any more, 43 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: like in your case, you got hacked. They continue to 44 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 2: get charged and they don't feel like there's any way 45 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 2: they can get out of it because they the service 46 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 2: has their credit card information and they just continue to 47 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 2: build and there's no way to stop it. I really 48 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,839 Speaker 2: like and recommend this service called privacy dot com, which 49 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 2: allows you to create sort of disposable credit cards on 50 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 2: the fly, and you connect it to your bank account, 51 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: and it's kind of this protective layer between your bank 52 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 2: account and the merchant that you're using. And so you 53 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: generate a temporary credit card, and you know, when you 54 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 2: sign up for a service like Twitter, you put in 55 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 2: your temporary credit card number that they give you, and 56 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: you have full control over how that credit card can 57 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 2: be used. You can say the maximum amount that can 58 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 2: be charged is ten dollars per month, or per year, 59 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,639 Speaker 2: or per transaction. If you ever don't like the service, 60 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 2: you can say I don't want you can delete the card. 61 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: You can set the maximum amount that can be charged 62 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 2: down to one dollar, for instance. And this has been 63 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,359 Speaker 2: for me great protection because our feat world is broken 64 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 2: in so many ways that we need things like this 65 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 2: to protect us, because once companies can get our bank 66 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 2: account details or a credit card details, they can do 67 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: huge damage to us. And unfortunately you're having this experience 68 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 2: with it actually well known and well established company. It's 69 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 2: not a scamm or it's just a well known company 70 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 2: that just happens to not be helping you. And another 71 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 2: example of this, my wife signed up for twenty four 72 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: hour Fitness and I'm sure many people in America know 73 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: about this company that do this kind of marketing scam 74 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: to get you on board, and she just couldn't unsubscribe 75 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 2: and they were charging us like fifty dollars a month. 76 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 2: So that motivated me to find this service, privacy dot com. 77 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 2: I'm not affiliated with them, not an investor or anything 78 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 2: like that. It's just one of those services I've had 79 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 2: such a great experience with. And whenever I hear friends 80 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 2: and family tell me about this their experiences where they 81 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: feel like they're getting scammed or they feel like they're 82 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 2: getting charged and they can't stop it, I'm like, well 83 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 2: you should try this out. Once you try it out, 84 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 2: you want everyone to go back because it gives you 85 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: that level of control where if they have your credit 86 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 2: card information, you can really limit the damage they can 87 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: do to you. 88 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm definitely gonna check that out. For sure, 89 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 1: I could at least stop my charge. 90 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 3: Maybe they'd maybe they'd want me more. 91 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: If they won't get my money, I'll have to see 92 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: you said that the Fiat world is broken in so 93 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 1: many ways. I would agree with that. There's probably no 94 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: end to the amount of conversations we can have in 95 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: all the ways it was broken. There was a video 96 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: clip that I saw sort of going viral. Jordan Peterson 97 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: just had this big conference, our conference going out in London, 98 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: I think it was this last week, and the guy 99 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: from trigonometry, Constantine I think his name is, had like 100 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: a pretty a talk that went pretty viral, and in 101 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,679 Speaker 1: the end he said, he said, hey, and a message 102 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: to all you conservatives. You're not gonna be able to 103 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 1: get the youth of vote for your conservative ways trying 104 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: a conservaive system that no longer works for them in 105 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,559 Speaker 1: a world where they can't afford to buy a house, 106 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: they can't afford. 107 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,359 Speaker 3: To buy a car. You know, the system is no 108 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 3: longer working. How are they going to vote for you? 109 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 1: And I thought about that, and I was thinking about 110 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: maybe doing a video on that, just that it's not 111 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: a I mean, I guess it sort of is a 112 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: political thing. But the reason why it's not working for 113 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: these people they can't afford a house or car is 114 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: the Fiat money system that's broken. 115 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 2: You agree with that, Yeah, absolutely, And this is we've 116 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 2: seen the culmination of a pure fiat money system that's 117 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: only really existed for let's say fifty years. About fifty years, 118 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: I mean, the US was on a gold standard. And 119 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: some people think that US went off the gold standard 120 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 2: in nineteen thirty three when Franklin Roosevelt confiscated people's gold 121 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 2: from the bank vaults, but really the US went off 122 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 2: the gold standard fully in nineteen seventy one. I believe 123 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 2: it was when Nixon closed the gold window. So the 124 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 2: goldstand is still acted as an anchor on the credit 125 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 2: expansion that was happening, and once that anchor was completely detached, 126 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 2: the credit expansion went crazy. So we've been living this 127 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 2: experiment for about fifty years, and I think we're seeing 128 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 2: the full effects now. And yeah, it really has pervasive 129 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 2: impact throughout society. It really increases people's time preference and 130 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 2: in terms of the people who are growing up today 131 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 2: and who are moving into the workforce. This is really 132 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 2: the first generation in I don't know, like two hundred 133 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 2: years which can confidently say we're not doing as well 134 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 2: as our parents, We're actually doing worse than our parents. 135 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:53,119 Speaker 2: That's the first time that's really happened. Every generation prior 136 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 2: to us could say confidently, I'm living a better lifestyle 137 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 2: than my parents and my grandparents. And that's a really 138 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 2: sad statement I think about. 139 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: I hadn't really know about that, But what it makes 140 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: sense as you say that, So which ways do you 141 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: think it's a less quality of life? 142 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 2: I mean people used to, you know, have this expectation 143 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 2: that when they left the house, you get a job 144 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: and afford a house, right, That's that's one basic thing 145 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: they could afford to have a family. There are a 146 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 2: lot of people now who don't believe they can have 147 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 2: a family. They're parts of parts of the country where 148 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 2: people just don't think they's it's a possibility for them anymore. 149 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 2: Like you look at the major cities on the West 150 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 2: coast or on the East coast too. If you're living 151 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 2: in one of those places, it's just if you're living 152 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 2: a regular middle class lifestyle, or even if you have 153 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 2: a good job. Let's say two engineers at Google, for instance, 154 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 2: who are earning good salaries. A lot of people like that, 155 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 2: married who have two good salaries, can't afford to buy 156 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: a home in the Bay Area. That's crazy now there's 157 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: some local factors involved as well. It's not just the 158 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: fact that we've been dealing with fifty years of uncontrolled 159 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 2: credit expansion and inflation. Local factors involved, such as bad 160 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 2: policies that they don't let people build more in the 161 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: Bay Area. But as a general rule, it's a really 162 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: strange thing that people can no longer expect to have 163 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 2: a lifestyle better than their parents, given how much technology 164 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 2: has improved over time, and given how much we've advanced 165 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 2: in so many different aspects of society, that this expectation 166 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: shouldn't continue into the future. We need to sort of 167 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: reflect on what is going on, what is broken in 168 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 2: our current system that's making this new reality come about. 169 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think when you talk about that, there's 170 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: other factors such as like building regulations and things like that. 171 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: But a lot of the problems with building regulations and 172 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: so forth is also because of the broken fiat money 173 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: system that we have, as well as you know, overreaching 174 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: government and misaligned incentives and things like that. If you're 175 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: just tuning in you're listening to the Mark Mass Show, 176 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: I'm sitting down with VJ. Boya Patty, the author of 177 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: the Bullish Case for Bitcoin senior engineer at Swan Bitcoin. 178 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 1: We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking about privacy, we're talking 179 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: about the vac currency, and we are going to talk 180 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: about the bull case and a lot more. Don't go away, 181 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: We'll be right back after a short break. 182 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 3: All right, Welcome back. 183 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: If you're just tuning in, you're listening to the Mark 184 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 1: Moss Show, sitting down with Vja Boya Potty, the author 185 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: of the Bullish Case for Bitcoin and the senior engineer 186 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: at Swan Bitcoin. A great place to get bitcoin if 187 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: you're trying to get something, you might want to after 188 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,839 Speaker 1: this conversation, now, j we were just talking about sort 189 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: of like this fiat money system being broken, and like 190 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: I said, we could sit here and talk about that 191 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: all day. The one thing I was thinking though, as 192 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: you were saying, how it's sort of changed people's time preference, 193 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: and that one is a whole topic and itself, but 194 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: I always think back to Vladimir Lenin was quoted saying 195 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: that the best way to destroy capitalism is to debouch 196 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: the currency through inflation, and through inflation you can arbitrarily steal. 197 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: And then he said until all relation is lost, until 198 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:20,239 Speaker 1: the best way to get rich is through gambling and theft, 199 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:22,959 Speaker 1: and today it sort of seems like that could never 200 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 1: be more true, right, I mean, everyone's just out for 201 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: gambling and theft. It's like yolo into some whatever options 202 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: trade or crypto trade or whatever it may be, or 203 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: like theft. Maybe not out well in the Bay Area, 204 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 1: outright theft and maybe there's a lot of grift and 205 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: graph going on. 206 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's true. We lived through this period 207 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 2: recently which is sort of unprecedented in history, where we 208 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: had fifteen years of negative real interest rates. The Federal 209 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: Reserve held interest rates at zero, and there's positive inflation 210 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 2: during that period, so you really being punished for saving. 211 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 2: If you kept money in cash or dollar denominated assets, 212 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 2: you generally punished for doing that. And so this creates 213 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 2: this massive incentive to go out there and go further 214 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 2: out on the risk curve and find assets that are 215 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 2: almost chasing momentum, essentially trying to find those assets that 216 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 2: are going up just because there's this inflation and the 217 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 2: money that exists has to go and find safety outside 218 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 2: of a regular bank account, for instance. So they ran 219 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 2: this experiment for fifteen years and we kind of saw 220 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 2: the consequence as inflation started the inflation. Genie really got 221 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 2: out of the bottle during the pandemic, and they're trying 222 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 2: to put it back in the bottle. And so now 223 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 2: we're actually back to what would be considered fairly normal historically, 224 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 2: where you have real interest rates, real positive interest rates. 225 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 2: If you are a saver and you put your money 226 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 2: in the bank, you will get a real return, which 227 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: is treasury absolutely right. Sorry, you're correct. If you put 228 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 2: it in short term dollar denominated bond securities, then you're 229 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 2: going to get a real rate of return, and this 230 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 2: has not been true for most of the last fifteen years. 231 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 2: This has a beneficial effect in that it encourages people 232 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 2: to save and it changes the way they plan for 233 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 2: the future as well. Unfortunately, I think this is going 234 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 2: to be very short lived experiment. I think the FED 235 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 2: is going to go back to what their default behavior 236 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 2: has been for the last better part of the last 237 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 2: two decades because the FIAT system can't survive like this. 238 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 2: It can't survive because fundamentally, the US government has this 239 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 2: massive amount of debt that needs to be serviced, and 240 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: with interest rates as high as they are. While that's 241 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 2: good for society as a whole, the US government can't 242 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: continue to function servicing a debt that large one hundred 243 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: and approaching one hundred and forty percent. So the Federal Reserve, 244 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 2: being a part of the US government, will eventually cave 245 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 2: in because they will see that the government can't function 246 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 2: like this and the system as a whole can't function. 247 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: So we're going to go back to negative real interest rates. 248 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: The reason the FED is doing what it's doing right 249 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: now is they need to establish some credibility. They said 250 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 2: that they have an inflation of target of two percent. 251 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 2: They could say they could change their mind to say, actually, 252 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 2: our inflation type, we're changing our inflation target. We're going 253 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 2: to make it three percent or five percent. But that's 254 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 2: what banana republics do. And the FED really has only 255 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 2: one weapon, and that weapon is their credibility that they're 256 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 2: able to keep inflation under control because people believe that 257 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 2: they will stick to their word and when they say 258 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 2: they're going to bring interest rates down to two percent, 259 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 2: they will. I don't think they can though. I don't 260 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 2: think they can sustainably do that because they've let the 261 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 2: inflation genie out of the bottle and they have this 262 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 2: huge constraint of if they really try and kill inflation. 263 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 2: They make it so that the US debt is not 264 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 2: serviceable anymore. And if they have to choose between these 265 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 2: two things, make it so the US government cannot service 266 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 2: its debt anymore, which basically implodes the government, or letting 267 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 2: the inflation genie out of the bottle. They're going to 268 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 2: go with the former. That's what central banks have done 269 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 2: for you know, the entire history of central banking. It's 270 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 2: just a matter of time. 271 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, And they have no choice. I mean, to your point, 272 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: they lose credibility. I would say they've already lost credibility. 273 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: Maybe most people for some reason haven't lost credibility with them. 274 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: But now they told this inflation was transitory, this and 275 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 1: that that obviously proved to be wrong. But I think 276 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: there's a couple of big problems they have. One is 277 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: that they can only try to basically limit consumer spending 278 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: so they can make you and eyebroke. But unfortunately, at 279 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: this point now the government, the fiscal spending is overpowering 280 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: the consumer spending, so they can only crush. 281 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 3: Us so much. 282 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: They got to stop the government spending like a drunken sailor. 283 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: And the US fiscal deficit was a trillion dollars last quarter, 284 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: and now the numbers came out, they're projecting one point 285 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: five trillion for the next two quarters. 286 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the problem exactly right. And the US government 287 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 2: and the population as a whole is in a really 288 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: difficult place for fixing this problem. We need fiscal responsibility, 289 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 2: but we have such unprecedented polarization in the country. We 290 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 2: can't agree to anything. So it's very hard to come 291 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 2: together and say things like, hey, can we make a 292 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 2: compromise on your side and my side and get this 293 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 2: sort of fiscal picture under control. It's just not going 294 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 2: to happen. And so I think what we can expect 295 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 2: given the political reality we live in, is that the 296 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 2: fiscal picture is going to continue to get worse. The 297 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 2: government is going to rack up more and more deficits. 298 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 2: At some point, there is a breaking point when the 299 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 2: debt is actually not serviceable, when the amount of money 300 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 2: that the US is bringing through tax revenue is not 301 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 2: enough to pay interest on the debt. That's when you 302 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 2: get the moment of crisis, which is what do we do. 303 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 2: Do we cut spending, do we raise taxes that's also 304 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 2: politically very infeasible, or do we go for the last option, 305 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: which almost all countries go for in the end, which 306 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 2: is the easiest option because it's the politically easiest option. 307 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 2: Let's just inflate the money supply. Let's reduce the debt 308 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 2: by making it so that the amount of money the 309 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 2: denominator is much much greater, and then then servicing the 310 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 2: debts no problem, because it's always money sloshing around. Yep, 311 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 2: that's what's going to happen. And the question is what 312 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 2: is the breaking point for the US government. What percentage 313 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 2: of GDP does it become unserviceable? 314 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 3: Well, they got to get the GDP up. 315 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: I just have a couple of years of double triple 316 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: digitiflation and that GDP number goes up, right, So I 317 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: mean they can get that number down. I mean that's 318 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: the most likely scenario, this financial repression playbook. You know 319 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: that they ran in the forties, the Israel ran in 320 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: the eighties. The IMF put out a white paper in 321 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,479 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen called Liquidation of Government Debt, which is basically 322 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: spelling that out. 323 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 3: If the debt to GDP is an equation. 324 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: If we can't get the debt down, let's just get 325 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: the GDP up And so It's like, hey, we're selling 326 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: iPhones for a thousand bucks. If we sell ten of them, 327 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 1: that's ten thousand. But if we take the inflation pushes 328 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: the price of two thousand, and we still sell ten iPhones, 329 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: now it's two thousand. 330 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 3: Right, It's a magic trick. And now too. 331 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 1: I think maybe the last piece that I want to 332 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: get into is you have this. Maybe you said contrary 333 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: and take as to this bitcoin bull market, but I'll 334 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: say this, I gotta take a quick break. But you know, 335 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: can the Fed admit defeat and change the target. It's 336 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: going to be very difficult for them to do that 337 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: and maintain credibility unless we have a war. Jannet Allen says, 338 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 1: we can afford to fight two wars at the same time, 339 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: and so maybe that could be the scapegoat. If you're 340 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: just tune in, you're listening to the Mark Mass Show. 341 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 1: I'm sitting down with VJ. Boya Potty, the author of 342 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: the Bullish Case for Bitcoin, and a scene engineer at 343 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: Swan Bitcoin. We'll be back with more in a minute 344 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:13,440 Speaker 1: after a very short break. 345 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 3: Don't go away, We're back. 346 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: All right, Welcome back. If you just tune in, you're 347 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Maas Show, sitting down with VJ. 348 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: Boya Potty, the author of the bullish case for Bitcoin, 349 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 1: and the senior engineer over at Swan Bitcoin, and we're 350 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: kind of going through, I don't know what we'll call it, 351 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 1: the unwinnable situation that the US is in, and not 352 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: just the US, every every government, every central bank is 353 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 1: sort of in this same scenario. 354 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 3: And I kind of threw out at the end. 355 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: You know, if the Fed FED doesn't want to lose credibility, 356 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 1: they're trying to regain credibility by getting back to that 357 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: two percent target unless they can come up with some 358 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: good reason scapegoat as to why they can't do that, 359 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: potentially like multiple wars. You kind of shook your head 360 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 1: and discussed when I said that, So if you want 361 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 1: to address that, you can. 362 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 3: But then you had said that you think that. 363 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 1: Maybe this bull market in bitcoin has already started, which 364 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: might be controversial for some who think that there's this 365 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 1: massive macro picture that's going to crash everything down. 366 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 3: So maybe explain that to me. 367 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, one thing, this prior ballmarket was really 368 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 2: shortened or curtailed. I think, you know, people have put 369 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 2: out a lot of reasons, but I think the main 370 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 2: reason was that the FED ended this unprecedented period of 371 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 2: fifteen years of zero interest rates. And I think when 372 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 2: there are positive real interest rates in the market, that's 373 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 2: generally bad for competing monetary goods. And the classic example 374 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,639 Speaker 2: of this is gold. You go back to the nineteen 375 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 2: seventies when gold was going through this decade long bullmarket 376 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 2: and parabolic moving gold very similar to one of bitcoin's 377 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 2: bull cycles. The graphs actually look very similar. These hype 378 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 2: cycles are almost identical. Then Paul Volker, the central banker 379 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 2: at the time, really was determined to get inflation under 380 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 2: control and set interest rates close to twenty percent, I believe, 381 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:10,719 Speaker 2: and had very real high, positive real interest rates, so 382 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 2: you would earn money, you would earn real value by 383 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:18,439 Speaker 2: keeping money in the bank. That's generally a period of 384 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 2: time which is bad for competing monetary goods, and it 385 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 2: was really bad for gold. It was bad for gold 386 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 2: for two decades. So I think the same thing happened 387 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 2: with bitcoin at the end of the ball market. How 388 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 2: long can the FED go along with this, I think 389 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 2: that's that's that's an open question, but I think about to. 390 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 1: That point real quick though, So if you look at 391 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 1: like Bitcoin's history, which isn't super long, so it's not like, 392 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: you know, super conclusive, I guess. But if you look 393 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: at like the Having market data, for example, we can 394 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: see that on every Having, the peak of bitcoin is 395 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: eighteen months after the Having. 396 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 3: So so far that's been true. 397 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: And I, you know, going into this this last event 398 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: after the Having, knowing that as eighteen months, but we'd 399 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: all thought maybe the price at bitcoin would be you know, 400 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty thousand or wherever it was going 401 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: to top out. Right then, you know, I have Michael 402 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: Sailor in the back of my ear going all your 403 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,719 Speaker 1: cycles are broken, and you see the big institutional adoption 404 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: coming in, and so maybe it would be higher. And 405 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: so then as we get to this November date, this 406 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 1: eighteen months after the Having cycle, I remember thinking this 407 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 1: can't be it now, this this cycle is going to 408 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: be broken at this point because the price should be 409 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,959 Speaker 1: so much higher. And right on cube, right at eighteen 410 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: months after the Having cycle is when the price dropped. 411 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,719 Speaker 1: And yes, it was with the Fed's announcement that they 412 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: were going to start, you know, raising rates. Now, they 413 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: didn't actually raise rates until they announced it in November. 414 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 1: They didn't actually raise my thing until January after, but 415 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: just the announcement was nothing to do with the market. 416 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 3: But anyway, is that just coincidence? 417 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: Do you think that it just happened to be right 418 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: at the eighteen month mark or you know, was it 419 00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:58,959 Speaker 1: or is it more of the having cycle? 420 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I had the conversation about this with 421 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,959 Speaker 2: Stephen Levera on his podcast as well. I think there 422 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: are two factors that play. There's the internal bitcoin market dynamic, 423 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 2: and I actually believe the harving is a real driver 424 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 2: of price movement. I think the harving will be again 425 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 2: because the market in the band market has to find 426 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 2: a plateau where there's an equilibrium between supply and demand, 427 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 2: and we have We've had that equilibrium essentially for the 428 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 2: last several months. But then the halving comes along, and 429 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 2: it really is this huge supply shock whether the supply 430 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 2: is halved. So the amount of fiat money that needs 431 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 2: to come into the bitcoin market to maintain the current 432 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 2: price is something like forty million dollars a day, and 433 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 2: then suddenly you only need half of that. But the 434 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 2: demand the people who are buying bitcoin, that demand doesn't halve. 435 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 2: It's still that same level, and that supply shock makes 436 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 2: demand above supply and it starts moving the price up, 437 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 2: and then it starts on itself, and then you get 438 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 2: the madness of crowds phenomena. So I think there's that 439 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 2: internal market dynamic. But I think bitcoin now is big 440 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 2: enough that it's a macro asset and it is affected 441 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 2: by macro factors like interest rates, So I think both 442 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 2: of those things are at play. I would probably say 443 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 2: the one hundred and eighty days is a coincidence. My 444 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 2: strong belief is that it was really interest rate lead. 445 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 2: I think the FED hurt all risk assets, all interest 446 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 2: rate sensitive assets, and I think bitcoin is an interest 447 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 2: rate sensitive asset. But bitcoin also has this internal market 448 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 2: dynamic which you're talking about, which is the four year 449 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 2: harving cycle. And I think that's still very powerful, and 450 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 2: I think it's going to trigger the next ballmarket. But 451 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 2: for me, it's not just the fact that we're approaching 452 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 2: the harving. It's just looking at the price action of bitcoin. 453 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 2: That price action tells a story, and as telling a 454 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,120 Speaker 2: story that bad news is not hurting bitcoin in a 455 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 2: bear market, good news does not help. In a bull market, 456 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: bad news does not hurt and so when you see 457 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 2: that price action, you know we're entering a bullmarket. And 458 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 2: there's been you know, plenty of news that would normally 459 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 2: knock bitcoin down, but the price keeps going up higher 460 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 2: and higher and higher. Then there's other factors as well 461 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 2: well that could be propelling it, including the potential approval 462 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 2: of an ETF, which I think will be a good 463 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 2: market catalyst, but it's undeniable. You look at the price 464 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 2: action a bitcoin right now, it looks like it's ready 465 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 2: for a big bull run. 466 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,679 Speaker 1: Yeah. One chart that I've been amazed by. You you 467 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: mentioned real rates earlier, and you can look at charts 468 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: with inverted real rates and it's like lockstep with gold. 469 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,719 Speaker 1: I mean, since the last couple decades, gold and real 470 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 1: rates have just moved almost in lockstep. And now there's 471 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 1: this massive divergent So there's something going on there that 472 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 1: tells us something right, And then you look at other 473 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: factors like this narrative shift, if you will. Larry Fink, 474 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: the you know, largest asset manager in the world from 475 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: black Rock, came out and said people are running to 476 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: bitcoin for safety. Like to hear him come out and 477 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: say that, And and so I think that's why gold is diverging, right. 478 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 1: I think people are starting to realize and maybe not 479 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: the United States, but the rest of the world is like, 480 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: we don't want us treasury, so we can see central 481 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 1: banks are net sellers of treasuries and net buyers of gold, 482 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: and so it's causing this divergence. But I think it's 483 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 1: also bitcoin and gold sort of moving in that way. 484 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: Just to kind of go back, so back to the 485 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 1: hiding cycle. If the if the Fed would have announced 486 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 1: they were going to raise rates a month later, then 487 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: this whole eighteen month after the having would have been 488 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: broken that that that'd be your that'd have been your 489 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 1: base case. 490 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. I honestly believe if the Fed had maintained zero 491 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,479 Speaker 2: interest rates, say yea longa, we would have probably hit 492 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: one hundred thousand. That's that's my belief. 493 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:46,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right, So do you think it did 494 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: maintain it's it's a having cycle kind of structure. Do 495 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 1: you think we're back into this having cycle structure again? 496 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 3: Now? Like so now we're about a year and a 497 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,400 Speaker 3: half before or. 498 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 2: I think so. And it's really remarkable you look at 499 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 2: these price charts for each cycle and you overlay them 500 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 2: and they're they're eerily similar in terms of timing from halving, 501 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 2: just as you use the harving as the anchor point. 502 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 2: And Satoshi did something incredible like choosing this system where 503 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,400 Speaker 2: we had a four year halving. You could almost imagine 504 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 2: that this four year halving, if it had been some 505 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,360 Speaker 2: other number, it might not have had the same impact. 506 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 2: It's almost like four years is enough for the pain 507 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 2: to be forgotten of the previous cycle and the enthusiasm 508 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 2: to rebuild units. He almost tapped into some human psychology 509 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 2: here to know what the ideal time was for creating 510 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 2: these supply shocks. If they had been every six months 511 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 2: or so, I think it wouldn't have had the same 512 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 2: impact as it does. 513 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good point. I didn't really think about 514 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 3: it like that. 515 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,479 Speaker 1: But you know, typically I started my career in real 516 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: estate investing, and typically the old ad edge was, you know, 517 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:56,439 Speaker 1: don't buy a home unless you plan to hold it 518 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 1: for at least five years. 519 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 3: So you have sort of like these. 520 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: Five year you know, these longer maybe eight year business cycles, 521 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: and so to your point, there's sort of long enough. 522 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:05,880 Speaker 1: I hadn't really thought about it that way, but from 523 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 1: a psychological standpoint, pretty interesting. I want to come back, 524 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: and we've got to take a very quick break. If 525 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 1: you're just tuning in, you're listening to the Markmos Show 526 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: talking with VJ. 527 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 3: Boya Potty. 528 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,639 Speaker 1: I want to talk about when we come back, maybe 529 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 1: this bullish case for bitcoin. So we talked about sort 530 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 1: of this US demand, but I want to talk about 531 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 1: do you really think this ETF is a big but 532 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,879 Speaker 1: enough catalyst or do we need something bigger from the 533 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: rest of the world. So I want to ask you 534 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 1: those questions when we come back. We'll talk about that 535 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: after a very short break. 536 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 3: Don't go away, We'll be right back. 537 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 1: All right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in and 538 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Markmas Show. Sitting down with VJ. 539 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 1: Boya Potty, the author of the Bolish Case for Bitcoin and. 540 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 3: A senior engineer over at Swan Bitcoin, and you know, VJ. 541 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 1: We were talking about sort of this this Bolish case 542 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,159 Speaker 1: for bitcoin, sort of looking at price action and having 543 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 1: cycles and things like that. I know a lot of 544 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: people are putting a lot of weight onto this ETF 545 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 1: getting approved. There's some controversy there from like real bitcoiners. 546 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 1: I'm a little fearful of potentially this sort of shakedown 547 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 1: or this event that seems to be happening where you 548 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: have like Elizabeth Warren going on this rampage, specifically going 549 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 1: on what she's calling non custodial wallets, brand new technological innovations. 550 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,199 Speaker 1: She's calling it of non custodial wallets. And in the 551 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,640 Speaker 1: UK they just passed a bill that they could seize 552 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 1: or freeze your crypto accounts without due process. And so 553 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: the only way they could do that is again if 554 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,919 Speaker 1: you had your bitcoin on a custodial exchange, right, So 555 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 1: it seems like there's this attack vector coming from both 556 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren and from the UK on custing your own bitcoin, 557 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: and at the same time you have this ETF narrative, 558 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: and so it's like, hey, we could buy it on 559 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: an ETF or maybe keep it in coinbase, but you 560 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: can't hold it yourself. 561 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 3: So there's that. And then I want to kind of frame. 562 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 1: This up even more where you know, we just had 563 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 1: the fifteenth anniversary of the Bitcoin White Paper, and Satoshi 564 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: in the white paper talked about that we no longer 565 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 1: require trust. To use the word trust fourteen times in 566 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: the white paper. I think it's like the third most 567 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 1: cited word, and we don't need to use these trusted 568 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: third parties, these trusted intermediaries, right, And so it seems 569 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: like bitcoin is made for enemies, or we might say 570 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 1: for adversary right. So like if I'm being sanctioned by 571 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 1: the Tally ban or by North Korea, we can go 572 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: peer to peer, and so it almost needs this adversarial. 573 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 3: Opponent to really have value. Right. 574 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: So like in America, like the dollar works pretty good, 575 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: most people don't understand why we need new money. But 576 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 1: if you go to Lebanon or whatever, Peru or Argentina, 577 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 1: they already know why they need new money, right, So 578 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 1: it almost seems like we need this adversarial lens more 579 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 1: for the bowl case. So I don't know, curious your 580 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 1: take on that. 581 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 2: That's a really interesting question. 582 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 3: You know. 583 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 2: The one time I felt worried about bitcoin was during 584 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 2: the block size walls, when bitcoin did go through this 585 00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 2: very adversarial struggle where the most powerful companies and powerful 586 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 2: mind and some of the biggest holders tried to change 587 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 2: Bitcoin into something that would be I think, much less 588 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 2: beneficial to the world that we're trying to change it 589 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 2: into essentially a piece of software rather than this immutable 590 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 2: unchangeable institution that allows people to transfer value with complete 591 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 2: confidence that they can't be censored. They were trying to 592 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 2: change it, essentially into what a theoreum is today. It's 593 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 2: just kind of this plaything for engineers who can just 594 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 2: tinkle with the interest rate or sorry, tinkle with the 595 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 2: money supply and change it at will and roll back 596 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 2: transactions if they want to. When Bitcoin got through that, 597 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,560 Speaker 2: my confidence grew to the point where I don't worry 598 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 2: about Bitcoin anymore. I don't worry that you could have 599 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 2: a fairly large concentration of ownership in an ETF, for instance, 600 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 2: because what I think would happen is if they tried 601 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 2: to use that to control the network in any way, 602 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 2: the people who really believe in bitcoin's principles and it's 603 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 2: true value to the world would just say, we don't 604 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 2: want to be part of this system anymore. We will 605 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 2: continue running the original Bitcoin that's unchangeable, and you can 606 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 2: go off and do your own thing. If you want 607 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 2: to change the money supply and you want to add 608 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 2: inflation to bitcoin, you go and do that. And I 609 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 2: think what I believe I discovered during the block size 610 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 2: wars is that value will accrue to that immutable, unchangeable institution, 611 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 2: because that's something that's truly unique in the world. And 612 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:40,480 Speaker 2: value follows that. Value looks for savings, looks for a 613 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 2: vehicle that cannot be manipulated or changed. It naturally flows 614 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 2: into vehicles like that, so. 615 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 3: And scarce assets. 616 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 2: Into scarce assets exactly. So I think it might be 617 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 2: used as an attack vector in the future, but I'm 618 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 2: much less worried about it than i I would have 619 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,920 Speaker 2: been if the block size war hadn't happened, because really 620 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 2: that was I think the peak threat for Bitcoin, because 621 00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 2: the most powerful companies in the space really banded together 622 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 2: to try and change Bitcoin, and they were not able 623 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 2: to And I think that was a testament to Bitcoin's 624 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 2: resilience and this underlying belief and philosophy in the ecosystem 625 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,880 Speaker 2: that it's something that should not be changed. And of 626 00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 2: course the market incentives and the economics of it people 627 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 2: want that. And it was really it was a real 628 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 2: revelation to see that the people who were trying to 629 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 2: change Bitcoin, despite all the reasons that they gave, ultimately 630 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 2: the economics were too powerful for them. They decided that 631 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 2: they wanted to stay with the system that was unchangeable, 632 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,239 Speaker 2: and that's where they put their capital, despite saying that 633 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 2: their system was better. So it bitcoin sort of reveals 634 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 2: the truth of what real money is just on its own. 635 00:32:58,440 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 3: Yeah. 636 00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 1: I did this whole segment earlier talking about the green 637 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,920 Speaker 1: curtain crumbling, this green movement from evs and renewables and 638 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: all this, And so after the Great Financial Crash, there 639 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 1: was no ESG funds that were open. Then Blackrock and 640 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 1: State Streets started opening these ESG funds. They were projecting 641 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: they had twenty trillion and under under management, they were 642 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 1: projecting fifty trillion by twenty twenty five. And now all 643 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 1: the funds are crumbling. Blackrocks shut most of them down, 644 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 1: and it's because they're all losing money, so they're not 645 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: making sense. And so as you were talking about that, 646 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 1: I was thinking about it, where if the value accruised 647 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 1: to the scarce asset, if the value accruised to what 648 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,080 Speaker 1: can't be changed, the Wall Street the institutions can try 649 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 1: to co opt it, but they just end up with 650 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 1: an ethereum. But if the value accruised to the non 651 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 1: changeable chain, then all that money is going to want 652 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,480 Speaker 1: to come back. If they change it, then they didn't 653 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 1: care about the attributes. What they cared about was the 654 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: alpha they could make. But I guess the question I 655 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,719 Speaker 1: was asking more was about, do you think like this 656 00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: chasing money narrative, this ETF narrative, is. 657 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 3: Enough to be the bowl case? 658 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: Meaning like, so what black Rock is going to send 659 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 1: the signal and every financial advisor in the United States 660 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 1: is going to sit down with their client and go, hey, 661 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,359 Speaker 1: now you can invest into the ZTF through your stock account, right, 662 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 1: but they're going to look at two years of data 663 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 1: and go, dang, I would have lost money if I 664 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 1: held this for a couple of years. So maybe it's 665 00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,840 Speaker 1: not the strongest compelling case if I'm only buying it 666 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,919 Speaker 1: for the money. Well, the last two years of data 667 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,040 Speaker 1: doesn't really look that good. 668 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 3: Right. 669 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,320 Speaker 1: We saw like SpaceX had to liquidate a huge position 670 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 1: at a loss, right for example. And maybe what I 671 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,879 Speaker 1: was saying is the bowl case might be as we 672 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 1: have more need for it as we see the EU 673 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 1: crack down on pushing. They just announced they're moving to 674 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: the next stage of their CBDC, for example. So as 675 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: we get these CBDCs, as we get these digital IDs 676 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 1: put into place, and we have to adopt it. 677 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 3: I guess that's what I was asking something like that. 678 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I think what the ETF does is it 679 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,800 Speaker 2: really expands the liquidity channel into bitcoin, and ultimately Bitcoin's 680 00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,840 Speaker 2: price level is determined by how much liquidity goes into bitcoin. 681 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,360 Speaker 2: I think what you're saying is correct. There will be 682 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 2: these other events that will trigger people's desire for bitcoin, 683 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 2: but the fact that the liquidity channel will increase substantially, 684 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 2: I think will also mean that those flow of funds 685 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,560 Speaker 2: can be much larger than they are now, So it 686 00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,560 Speaker 2: will be much much easier for people to invest, say 687 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 2: their IRA or their four oh one K money into 688 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 2: bitcoin when they haven't when they have access to an ETF, 689 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 2: it's still not particularly easy to do that. So I 690 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 2: think the flow of funds will actually be fairly substantial 691 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 2: with an ETF approval, and I think it will have 692 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 2: a meaningful impact on the price. But I don't think 693 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 2: that's alan the driver. I think it's going to be 694 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,320 Speaker 2: a combination of multiple factors. That it will be the 695 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 2: ETF approval and the increasing liquidity channel. It's going to 696 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 2: be the harving, and I think it's going to also 697 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:49,800 Speaker 2: be the FED pivoting at some point in the next 698 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 2: couple of years, or maybe even in the next year, 699 00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 2: when they realize that the FIAT system as a whole 700 00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 2: cannot survive with positive real interest rates. And when that happens, 701 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 2: I think we've started to see the cracks emerge in 702 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 2: the economy, certainly in some parts of the economy which 703 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 2: are in a deep depression right now. The real estate 704 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 2: market is in probably the worst depression it's been in 705 00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:17,280 Speaker 2: the last century. Like the housing market is completely frozen. 706 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 2: The number of transactions that are happening is the lowest 707 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 2: level in a very, very long time. So we have 708 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 2: depression in some parts of the economy, but some parts 709 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,680 Speaker 2: of the economy are still kind of booming because of 710 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 2: all the inflation that came out in twenty twenty, so 711 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,320 Speaker 2: the service sector. But I think as the cracks continue 712 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 2: to spread to other parts of the economy, the FED 713 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 2: is going to be forced to pivot. So we have 714 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 2: a confluence. I think for what will be a huge ballmarket, 715 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 2: we have the harving, we'll have an ETF approval. I'm 716 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,920 Speaker 2: fairly confident that that's going to happen sometime by January, 717 00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 2: and we're going to have the FED pivoting. I think 718 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 2: that's going to really be three key drivers for bitcoin's 719 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:58,320 Speaker 2: ballmarket this cycle. 720 00:36:58,680 --> 00:36:59,399 Speaker 3: Man, I love it. 721 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 1: You're just tune in here listening to the Mark mass Show. 722 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 1: I've been sitting down with VJ. Boya Potty. He's the 723 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,000 Speaker 1: author of the book The Bullish Case for Bitcoin and 724 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 1: a senior engineer over at Swan Bitcoin. 725 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 3: But that's what we got. Hopefully enjoyed this conversation. 726 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 1: Let me know. Hitmib on social media at one Mark 727 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:16,480 Speaker 1: Moss and let me know what you think. Leave a 728 00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,640 Speaker 1: comment if you're listening on the podcast, a review. I'd 729 00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 1: really appreciate it. 730 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,319 Speaker 3: And that's what I got. Thanks so much for listening.