WEBVTT - Leon Black Leaving Apollo Global Earlier Than Expected

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. You've got Astra Zeneca. It

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<v Speaker 1>looks like we've got another what fourth vaccine? Now, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>well it still lets to get a ridens use authorization,

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<v Speaker 1>but the headline number is a good number. This is

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<v Speaker 1>good news, right seven efficacy, as you said, so hopefully

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<v Speaker 1>they'll be more confidence in using it. But then you've

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<v Speaker 1>got we just talked about it New Jersey, New York

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<v Speaker 1>like their you know, New Jersey specifically pausing for the

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<v Speaker 1>rollbacks of restrictions as it's watching its COVID cases once

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<v Speaker 1>again searched to the highest in the nation. Some really

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<v Speaker 1>concerning numbers as well. All right, so that's going on.

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<v Speaker 1>You also have Germany doing rollbacks. I mean, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of interesting things going on that reminds you that

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<v Speaker 1>this is not a straight path forward. Let's get into

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<v Speaker 1>it with a voice that we've talked to many times

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<v Speaker 1>over the past year, Dartyman Abuse. She is CEO and

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<v Speaker 1>co founder at Incredible Health. Her company connects hospitals with

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<v Speaker 1>nurses and other healthcare workers, and she joins us once

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<v Speaker 1>again on the phone in San Francisco. Dr Abuse, Nice

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<v Speaker 1>to have you here with Tim and myself. How are you.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing well, Thank you, Thank you so much for

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<v Speaker 1>having me on the show again. Well, it's good to

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<v Speaker 1>have you back. We were trying to make sense of

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<v Speaker 1>like where to start with you. So tell me what

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<v Speaker 1>you think are the important headlines, Uh, you know across

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<v Speaker 1>the US globally that you think our audience needs to

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<v Speaker 1>be focusing on. So I think some a critical set

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<v Speaker 1>of headlines around the healthcare workers themselves. Um. And so

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<v Speaker 1>what we've done is we've published the report recently that

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<v Speaker 1>looks at the impact COVID nineteen her paddle on healthcare workers,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically nurses, over the last twelve months and there's been

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<v Speaker 1>a whole set of interesting findings. UM. The reason it's

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<v Speaker 1>important is because these healthcare workers are the ones delivering

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<v Speaker 1>care and taking care of COVID patients. UM. They're also

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<v Speaker 1>being exposed on the front lines to COVID. UH. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, healthcare workers are the biggest group of labor.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the biggest labor sector in the country today. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And so so that's why I think it's important to highlight. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a few important findings that I want to share

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<v Speaker 1>with the audience. UM. One is that what we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>is that actual compensation for healthcare workers has gone up.

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<v Speaker 1>In the last twelve months, it's probably been seen. Healthcare

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<v Speaker 1>workers have seen the biggest increases in compensation both salary

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<v Speaker 1>and signing bonuses compared to any other previous time in history.

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<v Speaker 1>And a lot of that is driven by the increased

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<v Speaker 1>demand for them. UM. The second area that's interesting is

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<v Speaker 1>the turnover has also increased. You know, nurses and healthcare

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<v Speaker 1>workers are leaving the workforce in higher numbers than ever before.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of a lot of nurses are taking advantage

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<v Speaker 1>of early retirement. UM. They're also leaving due to fatigue,

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<v Speaker 1>and stress. And then the third areas that's important is

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<v Speaker 1>how healthcare workers are perceiving their local communities in that

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<v Speaker 1>don't feel appreciated by their local communities because their local

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<v Speaker 1>communities are not necessarily following COVID guidelines. There we can

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<v Speaker 1>go ye, there some some some really mixed news in

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<v Speaker 1>the report. Um, let's let's let's start just with the turnover,

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<v Speaker 1>because look, it's not surprising given what healthcare workers have

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<v Speaker 1>had to endure over the last you know, thirteen months

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to the pandemic, that there could be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of them who are very tired. How much

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<v Speaker 1>higher is turnover right now when it comes to nurses

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<v Speaker 1>and what needs to be done to make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>this doesn't continue. So chief nursing officers in chief HR

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<v Speaker 1>officers of them report that the turnover has increased, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's increased by about five Now keep in mind nurse

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<v Speaker 1>turnover already was around even before the pandemics, so now

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<v Speaker 1>it's gone up to about um the key drivers of

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<v Speaker 1>that are are exactly what you state is the fatigue,

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<v Speaker 1>the anxiety to stress that comes from coping with the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic and and being exposed to COVID. UH and then

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<v Speaker 1>the other areas just you know, just nurses taking advantage

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<v Speaker 1>of of the options they have, including things like early retirement. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>one thing I want to ask you, um Dr Appoise,

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<v Speaker 1>is that what you talk about is turnover, and there's

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<v Speaker 1>a fairly high turnover as you just mentioned with nurses,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're seeing more of it because of the past year.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you concerned because of turnover or burnout? That especially?

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<v Speaker 1>I go back to the headline, Tim and I talked

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<v Speaker 1>about where you know, New Jersey is now seeing their

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<v Speaker 1>case counts surge to the highest in the nation, and

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<v Speaker 1>there are hot spots once again around the country. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had a lot of conversations with with heads of

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<v Speaker 1>the Atlantic Health System, with Northwill Health, the CEO joined us,

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<v Speaker 1>and they constantly talked about this plateau ng of numbers

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<v Speaker 1>that we're not going down. So I do want under

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<v Speaker 1>are you concerned at all about us not having the

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<v Speaker 1>support staff, the nursing staff that if we get another

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<v Speaker 1>spike that could be problematic. Yeah, we we are concerned

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<v Speaker 1>about that. And that's been you know, every time a

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<v Speaker 1>new search happens, the staffing situation and the hiring situation

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<v Speaker 1>becomes more more challenging because each time there's a surge,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a set of people who there's a set of

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare workers that permanently leave the workforce. And I'm wondering,

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<v Speaker 1>are you setting up for another surge? Because I what

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<v Speaker 1>I love about talking to you mine is that you

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<v Speaker 1>are seeing what's going on around the country and kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a bigger picture. And I'm wondering. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of optimism. It's spring here in New York, and people

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<v Speaker 1>feel like things are starting to open up again, but

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like again, step forward, step back, because we

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<v Speaker 1>are still in a pandemic, and what are you seeing?

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<v Speaker 1>How how concerned should we be about maybe another wave

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<v Speaker 1>based on what you're seeing in the conversations you're having, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>So we are concerned for for more surges and specific

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<v Speaker 1>states and specific locations UM. And the reason for that

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<v Speaker 1>or the impact is this several reasons. One, I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're going in the next few weeks, we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be running into UM Americans not wanting to take the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the way, that includes the nurses. Our study

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<v Speaker 1>does show that thirty nurses have chosen not to take

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine because they're not they don't feel that they

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they just chosen not to UM the other

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<v Speaker 1>and then the second areas and the second area of

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<v Speaker 1>concern is the new variants, the new COVID variants, and

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<v Speaker 1>and and how how much more UH spread that they'll

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<v Speaker 1>be spreading more UM. That's the other area of concern

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<v Speaker 1>right expect we've all talked about that, like how many

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines do we how much of the population do we

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<v Speaker 1>need to see? What percentage vaccinating in order to get

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of those variants. Dr Abuside, you referred to vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>hesitancy among healthcare workers that that you're finding at Incredible Health.

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<v Speaker 1>Give us the statistic, because Carol and I talked last

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<v Speaker 1>week about a Washington Post poll that found that more

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<v Speaker 1>more than four intent healthcare workers have not been vaccinated.

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<v Speaker 1>Why are you seeing it at Incredible Health. Yeah, so

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<v Speaker 1>what we're what we've discovered in our study that nurses

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<v Speaker 1>are saying they don't plan to take the vaccine at

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<v Speaker 1>all at all, even when one becomes available to them.

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<v Speaker 1>The healthcare workers were first in line, so effectively they're

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<v Speaker 1>they all have for the most part, access to the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the skepticism UM and this hesitation is mostly

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<v Speaker 1>driven by disinformation honestly, UM, A lot of that's being

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<v Speaker 1>driven by social media disinformation. UH rumors and myths like

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine is going to change your DNA and kind

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<v Speaker 1>of think things like that that are just completely false,

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<v Speaker 1>UM or honestly to blame. It is a bit shocking

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<v Speaker 1>to see healthcare workers UH kind of fall for this,

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<v Speaker 1>for this disinformation. But regardless that that, that just highlights

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<v Speaker 1>the need for uh, much better and much clearer public

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<v Speaker 1>health communication about how how the vaccines work, UM, what

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<v Speaker 1>what the risks are, and what the risk or not

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<v Speaker 1>and really clarifying that UM as a whole. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's the hospitals and health system the employers that

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<v Speaker 1>are responsible for this communication as well as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>our government's both federal, state, and local governments and really

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<v Speaker 1>communicating the safety of the vaccine as well as the

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<v Speaker 1>purpose of it. So what could hospitals be doing better

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<v Speaker 1>to do this and what could governments be doing better

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<v Speaker 1>to communicate this? Because this is really surprising to me.

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<v Speaker 1>Medicine is evidence based, it's science based, and these health

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<v Speaker 1>care professionals are not following the science. You're right, it is.

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<v Speaker 1>It is really surprising. I think what's what's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be required is like a cohesive and clear campaign communication

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<v Speaker 1>campaign honestly about about the science. I mean, look, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been challenging for all of us, including the health care workers,

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<v Speaker 1>because the science it does change from week to weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>The CDC guidelines do change months to months. Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>because this is an evolving situation, and scientists are learning

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<v Speaker 1>more and more about the pandemic, and more research papers

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<v Speaker 1>are getting published and so on. Right, so it's not

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<v Speaker 1>it's not surprising. I guess that we're kind of that

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<v Speaker 1>we you know, that that the entire groups that people

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<v Speaker 1>may be out of date. I think it just shows

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<v Speaker 1>that you really need to have a consistent, clear, frequent

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<v Speaker 1>campaign campaigns and communication on on what the correct messaging is.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. It's interesting and I was looking for numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>I was at the m A website by trying to

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<v Speaker 1>get an idea of how many doctors have actually taken

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine. And I remember talking I can't think of

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<v Speaker 1>the guests, but they oversee a physicians group and there

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<v Speaker 1>was some even hesitant hesitancy among doctors early on in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of taking the vaccine. But I do feel like

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<v Speaker 1>this is a crucial part of US all moving forward.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Abuse aide that healthcare workers in particular, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you would think that their front and center understanding, um,

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<v Speaker 1>what the vaccine is about. So it's it's a little

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<v Speaker 1>worrisome that there's some nervousness above that community. Absolutely, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the numbers among the general public US of Americans

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<v Speaker 1>are hesitant about taking the vaccine. So you know we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to start running into this issue in a matter

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<v Speaker 1>of weeks here, especially as as a as a supply

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<v Speaker 1>of vaccine continues to grow in the logistics and the

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<v Speaker 1>rollout continues. Does it mean we don't get to hurt

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<v Speaker 1>immunity potentially? Potentially? I mean if it's not solved, is this,

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<v Speaker 1>if not enough people take the vaccine, that's correct, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the that's the risk that we're running. So how are

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<v Speaker 1>you planning for this? At incredible health? I mean, how

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<v Speaker 1>are you planning for staffing, for availability of employees? And

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<v Speaker 1>we'll live about thirty seconds left. Yeah, So we're we

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<v Speaker 1>have several initiatives in place. We're continuing our national expansion

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<v Speaker 1>um through throughout throughout the country, UM, and we're we're

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<v Speaker 1>we have a presence Sir teaing State we're also adding

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<v Speaker 1>products features including a mental you know, mental health features, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>A vibrant nurse community where nurses can support and advise

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<v Speaker 1>each other. So we're continuing with our product roadmaps and

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<v Speaker 1>our geographic expansion of adding more, more and more health

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<v Speaker 1>systness and nurses to the platform. All right, well, good

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<v Speaker 1>to know, and I'm really great to hear about your survey.

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<v Speaker 1>Um wheresome though some of those data points. Dr man

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<v Speaker 1>Abus she is co founder and chief executive officer at

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<v Speaker 1>Incredible Health, on the phone in San Francisco. Yeah, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's really disconcerting to have people who do

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<v Speaker 1>deal with patients, who people who do deal with medicine

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<v Speaker 1>and do deal with giving shots, be so concerned about

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<v Speaker 1>getting the vaccine and the message that sends to patients. Also, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and I do wonder and worry about the impact that

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<v Speaker 1>man may have an in order for us to reopen

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<v Speaker 1>up our economies and really get to that HERD immunity.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. So never having

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<v Speaker 1>to say you're sorry, Nope, we're not talking about love story.

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<v Speaker 1>I did see something on it over the weekend. That's

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<v Speaker 1>why it's in my head. A should turn my microphone on.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought you were talking about Justin Bieber. That too. Nice.

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<v Speaker 1>Nice stuck in my head since reading this story. So

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<v Speaker 1>we're what we're talking about, though, is the new rule

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<v Speaker 1>of politics. Let's get into This story is going to

0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.120
<v Speaker 1>be featured in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week

0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.920
<v Speaker 1>magazine that later. This week's story already online and on

0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.719
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Let's get to Boomberg News political reporter Ryan T.

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.959
<v Speaker 1>Beckwith on the phone in Washington, d C. Along with

0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:06.840
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business We get it, or Joe Webber on the

0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:11.760
<v Speaker 1>access line in Brooklyn. Sorry not sorry, Joel. Yeah. And

0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:13.920
<v Speaker 1>and this is the story that Ryan, Um when you

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:17.080
<v Speaker 1>when you kind of mentioned it in passing Um, I

0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:18.880
<v Speaker 1>was like, you can go ahead and write that story,

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.559
<v Speaker 1>like right now, the world needs to hear and and

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 1>I think you know it's really rooted in the Governor

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:31.480
<v Speaker 1>Andrew Cuomo's um recent tribulence, but it's even bigger than that. Um.

0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:33.880
<v Speaker 1>So Ryan, to walk us through the art of the

0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:38.400
<v Speaker 1>apology or lack thereof in politics. Now, Yeah, if you

0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:40.760
<v Speaker 1>think about the traditional apology, and I think if you're

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:43.720
<v Speaker 1>of a certain age, you might be able to picture

0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:47.520
<v Speaker 1>Jimmy Swagger with the tears streaming down his faint um

0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:51.760
<v Speaker 1>on stage. The book that I was talking with, the

0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:54.559
<v Speaker 1>author I just called the Artists of Public Problem by

0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:59.000
<v Speaker 1>Susan Wisebauer, and she um identified sort of certain commonalities

0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 1>in the very public apologies that we specifically have demanded

0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 1>over the years from politicians for their sexual mistake, UM,

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.960
<v Speaker 1>whether that's cheating or harassments or or whatever. Uh. And

0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:13.839
<v Speaker 1>the first is that they get up in public and

0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.800
<v Speaker 1>and they give it in person um to show how

0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>serious that that they are, not through a statement or whatever. Uh.

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.000
<v Speaker 1>And often they had on one side their spouse, on

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:28.120
<v Speaker 1>the other side their pastor UM or other religious leader.

0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:33.000
<v Speaker 1>And uh. Then they begin by acknowledging what they did wrong, UM,

0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 1>specifically apologizing directly to the victim UM as well as

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 1>to their spouse. Usually UM. Sometimes they would go further

0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:45.600
<v Speaker 1>and apologize other people, the people of you know that

0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>I represent the voters whatever. Mark Stanford, his apology just

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:52.200
<v Speaker 1>went on and on. It was a pologize and good

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.439
<v Speaker 1>his friend Tom, you apologize to people of Congressional district,

0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:59.040
<v Speaker 1>apologize the people of faith in South Carolina who might

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>find others questions in our faith because he had to

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:05.920
<v Speaker 1>active quotes. So um. And then they and then they

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 1>end by acknowledging they'll do better in the So what

0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:14.160
<v Speaker 1>happened because we didn't hear sorry from Donald Trump very

0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:18.360
<v Speaker 1>frequently and and we haven't heard it depends on how

0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 1>you define apology when it comes to what's happening with

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 1>with Governor Andrew Cuomo right now right so um. When

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.960
<v Speaker 1>I was mentioning this to to other experts of the

0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.480
<v Speaker 1>apology as I said something about Donald Trump's apology after

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 1>the Access Hollywood tape, and they said, like the fact

0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 1>that you're calling this an apology is like part of

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 1>the problem here. Like Donald Donald Trump after the Access

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.440
<v Speaker 1>Hollywood at it one of two occasions were sort of

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 1>apologize for something, the other being his Charlotte stilpon marks,

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 1>which he's been kind of fluffed back, um and and

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 1>and he got up basically and he said, you know,

0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 1>his look like I you know, said a few things. Um,

0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 1>but it's not nearly as bounded what Bill Clinton did.

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:01.760
<v Speaker 1>And hill Rick Quinton was right there with him and

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 1>the pivoted, stretching into an attack. So he didn't you

0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>really acknowledge what he said and minimize it. So that's

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.440
<v Speaker 1>one way in which like we are seeing somewhat of

0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 1>an apology, like is speaking to a lesser case like

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>you've you've been charged with manslaughter and you get up

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:20.920
<v Speaker 1>and you got look, I might have pushed a few

0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.800
<v Speaker 1>people around, you know, like you're not you're not acknowledging

0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:26.200
<v Speaker 1>what you did. And that Onemo did that started saying

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 1>I may have made some women uncomfortable. That's not what

0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 1>he's accused of. Well, well, the thing is Ryan, you know,

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:35.960
<v Speaker 1>in this frenetic news cycle, like we're all quickly moving

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 1>on to the next thing. In many ways, this can

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.240
<v Speaker 1>be a very smart strategy if you just kind of

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:45.000
<v Speaker 1>write it out, you know, everybody might move on and

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.160
<v Speaker 1>you'll get to hold your seat. Yeah, I mean I

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:52.360
<v Speaker 1>think it depends. It also requires a certain sense of shamelessness. Um,

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:56.680
<v Speaker 1>Ralph Northam apologized and then he also didn't resign. You

0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 1>just hung on. And I think that Trump showed that

0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:02.320
<v Speaker 1>that strategy can work. That the the cost, the political

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.000
<v Speaker 1>cost for two other people of removing you from office,

0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.520
<v Speaker 1>it's just really high. It's really hard Cuomwell can basically

0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 1>just you know, hold on to his seat and say

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going anywhere, and the legislature is going to

0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 1>have to do a lot of work to remove him

0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:17.160
<v Speaker 1>from office. Someone is going to have to defeat him

0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:19.040
<v Speaker 1>in a primary, someone's gonna have to defeat him in

0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.480
<v Speaker 1>a general election. Well, it easier to just say hey,

0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.480
<v Speaker 1>you know whatever and move on. But the difference is

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:26.960
<v Speaker 1>that he could have apologized. He could have said, I

0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>did I did things wrong, I'm sorry, here's what I

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 1>did wrong, here's the people that I've wrong. He didn't

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>really do that. By the end of the original press

0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 1>conference in which he was giving us apologie, he was

0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 1>already saying, wait for the facts. And and that's an

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.840
<v Speaker 1>indirect way of saying basically the same thing that a

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.960
<v Speaker 1>politician who says these women are all liars says, Like,

0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 1>if you say wait for the facts, then you're saying

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:49.680
<v Speaker 1>what these people are saying, it's not a factual. And

0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:53.160
<v Speaker 1>if you're saying that, you're not really apologizing. And that's

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.480
<v Speaker 1>the problem. So Ryan, one of the other things that

0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 1>I thought was really surprising in your story is the

0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 1>year that the traditional apology political apology was actually uniquely

0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:09.200
<v Speaker 1>American and that we might becoming more like the rest

0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.200
<v Speaker 1>of the world. Can you can you tell us what

0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:14.560
<v Speaker 1>what that actually means, because I've always thought public apologies

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 1>were pretty universal idea. I think that the format in

0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>which we had required people to apologize in the past

0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:27.359
<v Speaker 1>was very stylized and was very much um rooted in

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 1>the sort of Christian confessions of sin um, you know,

0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.879
<v Speaker 1>within certain churches where we're sort of stand up in

0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:36.880
<v Speaker 1>publicly apologize, this is this one and pay Then why

0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.119
<v Speaker 1>the politicians we think up who did the best at this?

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.919
<v Speaker 1>Uh format? Bill Clinton just did you know, biting the

0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>lower lip and I had sinned, you know, like that

0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 1>that kind of apology. It's a very specific American requirement.

0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:53.760
<v Speaker 1>The other reasons for this, The other reason why we

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of asked you to go to another country and

0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:00.000
<v Speaker 1>and we're a waitress brings your food and you say

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you, like people lookink you're funny, right, And and

0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.399
<v Speaker 1>I had it with some some people from another country

0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:08.480
<v Speaker 1>about this. They're like, they're being paid to bring you food,

0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:10.680
<v Speaker 1>why are you saying thank you? And it's because we've

0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:14.880
<v Speaker 1>Americans are uncomfortable with power differentials and so right, when

0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>someone is accused of this kind of behavior, it seems

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:20.920
<v Speaker 1>like they're taking advantage of their social situation. The only

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:24.440
<v Speaker 1>way to really cuberate that is for them to level down,

0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:28.680
<v Speaker 1>to apologize and put themselves differ. Well. It's an interesting

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.560
<v Speaker 1>read and certainly a sign of the times. Ryan, Thank

0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:34.160
<v Speaker 1>you so much. Ryan take back with Bloomberg News along

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.240
<v Speaker 1>with Joel Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. This is

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:41.240
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes.

0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:45.160
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. Leon Black He's the Wall

0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Street billionaire. He appeared to be a main client of

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:52.920
<v Speaker 1>disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. He is stepping down as CEO

0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.320
<v Speaker 1>of Apollo Global Management. And Tim, this is months ahead

0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:57.640
<v Speaker 1>of schedule. Yeah, it is Shinelli Bossik is Wall Street

0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News. Joinsing this now on the O

0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.439
<v Speaker 1>from right here in our New York City bureau. But

0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.320
<v Speaker 1>we are doing social distancing. Socionally is not here in

0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:10.160
<v Speaker 1>the studio somewhere, even though I've seen her many Yes, exactly, Hey, Shnally.

0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.679
<v Speaker 1>As Carol mentioned, this happened months ahead of schedule. How

0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.000
<v Speaker 1>big of a surprise was this to you? Listen, the

0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:18.359
<v Speaker 1>fact that he stepped back was not a surprise from CEO.

0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:20.520
<v Speaker 1>It was months a had a schedule. That was a surprise.

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.680
<v Speaker 1>But he is also stepping back to him as chairman

0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 1>of Apollo. And remember that is a big step back.

0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:29.840
<v Speaker 1>He's stepping back from the firm in such a big way.

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:34.320
<v Speaker 1>He's led the firm for thirty one years. He said

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.040
<v Speaker 1>in a letter to the board today that the press

0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 1>around his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein has been has been

0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:45.760
<v Speaker 1>a real strain on him and has taken a toll

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.640
<v Speaker 1>on his health. And so he is looking to take

0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:52.320
<v Speaker 1>a step back from the firm and from the spotlight.

0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 1>Why though, is it more about health, Is it more

0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:59.040
<v Speaker 1>about stepping back from the spotlight? A little of both.

0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:02.520
<v Speaker 1>It looks like all I asked this today too, because

0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the question is investors, when before he stepped down a CEO,

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:09.280
<v Speaker 1>investors really had put a lot of heat on Apollo

0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.600
<v Speaker 1>and had really threatened to not be investing more with Apollo.

0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Apollo zone performance has been really sluggish when you look

0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:20.159
<v Speaker 1>at its performance next to its piers. So clearly investors

0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:24.000
<v Speaker 1>and other stakeholders wanted answers, and Apollo has been making

0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:29.680
<v Speaker 1>very very drastic changes. Listen, the relationship between UH, Leon

0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Black and Jeffrey Epstein, a hundred and fifty eight million

0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:36.400
<v Speaker 1>dollars worth the payments was at a very big scale,

0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:39.600
<v Speaker 1>even though a law firm found that there was no

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.800
<v Speaker 1>evidence of wrongdoing on Leon Black's part. So, uh, it's

0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:46.640
<v Speaker 1>something certainly that had a lot of lingering questions, even

0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:49.960
<v Speaker 1>after the report had came out and clarified that Leon

0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Black had no engagement with any of the criminal activity

0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>that Jeffrey Epstein was involved with. Otionally, what's then the

0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.560
<v Speaker 1>reaction on Wall Street, not necessarily from from companies in

0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:02.240
<v Speaker 1>terms of stock price movements, but specifically from your sources

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 1>who you're talking to, where they are shocked as as

0:21:04.119 --> 0:21:08.159
<v Speaker 1>many people were yes in the sense that this really

0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 1>was Leon Black's firm. For him to step back a

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:13.879
<v Speaker 1>CEO and become chairman, that was something a lot of

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:17.080
<v Speaker 1>people had expected. For him to take this mega step

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:20.640
<v Speaker 1>back from the firm was a lot less expected. He

0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:24.960
<v Speaker 1>is going to remain the single largest shareholder of Apollo,

0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:28.280
<v Speaker 1>so that is one link he will still have. But

0:21:28.440 --> 0:21:31.640
<v Speaker 1>from now on out, we can expect a much different

0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:34.760
<v Speaker 1>firm ahead, and now the new CEO, Mark Rowan, it's

0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:36.879
<v Speaker 1>really going to be up to him to show what

0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:40.080
<v Speaker 1>that looks like. As an aside, Jake Clayton, the former

0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:42.840
<v Speaker 1>chairman of the SEC will become now the chair of

0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.399
<v Speaker 1>Apollo and the board will be expanded, so we have

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:48.480
<v Speaker 1>a different firm on our hands. Hey, so what about

0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:51.119
<v Speaker 1>Josh Harris? Right, So, he was seen as having at

0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:54.760
<v Speaker 1>a closer relationship with Leon Black and deemed to be

0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:58.159
<v Speaker 1>a more likely successor according to our reporting. What does

0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:01.160
<v Speaker 1>it mean that he wasn't chosen to be the new

0:22:01.280 --> 0:22:05.160
<v Speaker 1>CEO and if he leaves the firm is at a problem? Yeah,

0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:08.520
<v Speaker 1>that's an interesting question because it's something that's definitely a

0:22:08.560 --> 0:22:12.120
<v Speaker 1>big question on Wall Street right now. He is one

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:14.399
<v Speaker 1>of the firm's co founders. He's very much involved in

0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:16.359
<v Speaker 1>the firm, but he has a lot of side gigs, right,

0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:19.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean, including UH co owner of UM, a bunch

0:22:19.880 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 1>of sports teams, So we know Josh Harris has a

0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:26.840
<v Speaker 1>life on the side. Uh Apolo is looking to merge

0:22:26.840 --> 0:22:29.399
<v Speaker 1>with a Theme, which is a big insurance company it owns,

0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:31.800
<v Speaker 1>and that was really the big brandchild of Mark Rowan,

0:22:32.200 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>so more and more you're seeing the co founder Mark

0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:37.160
<v Speaker 1>Rohan put a bigger and bigger stamp on the firm.

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:41.000
<v Speaker 1>And you know, consistency is not a bad thing. The

0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:43.520
<v Speaker 1>face of the firm, even underneath that level, is changing

0:22:43.560 --> 0:22:46.040
<v Speaker 1>quite a bit. We've seen big deals uh, come out

0:22:46.040 --> 0:22:48.520
<v Speaker 1>of the co presidents and new sorry the new cove

0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:51.720
<v Speaker 1>co heads of the private equity group, which are Matt

0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 1>Nord and David Samber. And even seeing the younger generations

0:22:56.880 --> 0:22:58.800
<v Speaker 1>start to do deals and put their stamp on the

0:22:58.840 --> 0:23:01.400
<v Speaker 1>firm is interesting as well. What about when it comes

0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:03.400
<v Speaker 1>to Jay Clayton, who you mentioned, of course, former chair

0:23:03.440 --> 0:23:07.480
<v Speaker 1>of the SEC has been a member of the company's board,

0:23:07.800 --> 0:23:12.119
<v Speaker 1>but now becoming non executive chairman. What does he do

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:15.560
<v Speaker 1>at Apollo? Yeah, I think what people want to see

0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:18.920
<v Speaker 1>is more independent on the board of Apollo and a

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:23.320
<v Speaker 1>firm that you know, it started really as a private firm, uh,

0:23:23.359 --> 0:23:26.200
<v Speaker 1>and then even as a public firm in public markets.

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:30.240
<v Speaker 1>After when public uh, it was still quite secretive, right

0:23:30.359 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 1>and it was still had such a such a huge

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:36.479
<v Speaker 1>amount of its economics tied to its founders. They're changing

0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:39.120
<v Speaker 1>even the voting structure of the firm and the share

0:23:39.200 --> 0:23:42.360
<v Speaker 1>structure so that it's one vote, one share, and so

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:45.399
<v Speaker 1>as that happens as it becomes more institutionalized, to have

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:49.120
<v Speaker 1>someone like Jay Clayton kind of at the helmet's chair

0:23:49.760 --> 0:23:53.840
<v Speaker 1>helps make it a more professional firm, and it brings

0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 1>it more in the ranks of a firm that more

0:23:56.040 --> 0:24:00.840
<v Speaker 1>institutional investors may own. Of course, that will depend on

0:24:00.840 --> 0:24:04.200
<v Speaker 1>its performance. And also another thing people pointed out today

0:24:04.400 --> 0:24:07.240
<v Speaker 1>is the ability to return dividends at the same page

0:24:07.240 --> 0:24:11.800
<v Speaker 1>that black Stone where the shares are up this year. Well,

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:14.679
<v Speaker 1>and there is I feel like almost some symbolism or

0:24:14.680 --> 0:24:17.480
<v Speaker 1>maybe a sign being sent by Jake Clayton being named

0:24:17.560 --> 0:24:20.120
<v Speaker 1>this position, because listen, this is a guy with incredible

0:24:20.119 --> 0:24:23.760
<v Speaker 1>stature on Wall Street, the whole financial community. There is

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:26.359
<v Speaker 1>an assumption, you could make almost finale that he wouldn't

0:24:26.400 --> 0:24:28.840
<v Speaker 1>have done this if he didn't feel comfortable staying at

0:24:28.840 --> 0:24:31.600
<v Speaker 1>the firm. Just got about twenty seconds here. Yeah, that's

0:24:31.800 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 1>that's the signal. This is a big, new institutional firm

0:24:34.600 --> 0:24:37.440
<v Speaker 1>with a much more independent board, and that's the signal

0:24:37.520 --> 0:24:40.560
<v Speaker 1>that they're trying to send to society. Well, great analysis,

0:24:40.720 --> 0:24:43.160
<v Speaker 1>um really appreciate it. Sni Bostic. She's Wall Street reporter

0:24:43.160 --> 0:24:44.880
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News on the phone in New York City.

0:24:44.920 --> 0:24:47.200
<v Speaker 1>Whenever there's a big financial bank story, man, I'm always

0:24:47.200 --> 0:24:48.840
<v Speaker 1>getting a message from her in the morning that just

0:24:48.920 --> 0:24:52.119
<v Speaker 1>kind of puts it into perspective. This is Bloomberg Business

0:24:52.200 --> 0:24:56.000
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

0:24:56.359 --> 0:24:59.919
<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. Let's bring in Michael Sheldon. He is

0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:03.240
<v Speaker 1>executive director, chief investment officer at High Tower RDM Financial

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:06.840
<v Speaker 1>based in Westport, Connecticut, and that's where he is on

0:25:06.880 --> 0:25:08.600
<v Speaker 1>the phone. Michael, good to have you back. How are

0:25:08.640 --> 0:25:11.720
<v Speaker 1>you good. Thanks very much, It's been a while, but

0:25:11.880 --> 0:25:13.520
<v Speaker 1>good to hear from you. Yeah, what's going on in

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:16.520
<v Speaker 1>your world? What in terms of investment stories? Market stories

0:25:16.560 --> 0:25:19.120
<v Speaker 1>are a kind of front and center for you. Well,

0:25:19.200 --> 0:25:20.840
<v Speaker 1>I thought I thought it would be interesting to put

0:25:20.880 --> 0:25:23.280
<v Speaker 1>things in perspective, as you know, as you well know,

0:25:23.720 --> 0:25:25.919
<v Speaker 1>tomorrow is going to be the one year anniversary of

0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:28.000
<v Speaker 1>the market bottom that we had back in the two

0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:31.160
<v Speaker 1>thousand and twenty. Back then, back in March of two

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:35.040
<v Speaker 1>thousand twenty, things didn't look very good, but we had

0:25:35.040 --> 0:25:37.960
<v Speaker 1>the fastest decline into a bear market, and over the

0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:40.800
<v Speaker 1>past twelve months following that, we had the biggest rally

0:25:40.840 --> 0:25:43.080
<v Speaker 1>in the post World War two period. So I thought

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:45.720
<v Speaker 1>it would help to put things in perspective. Now, what

0:25:45.720 --> 0:25:47.840
<v Speaker 1>what should investors expect in the second year of a

0:25:47.880 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 1>bull market? So in the second year of bull markets,

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:52.400
<v Speaker 1>we look back at all the bull markets going back

0:25:52.400 --> 0:25:55.840
<v Speaker 1>to World War Two. The markets have posted a positive

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:58.760
<v Speaker 1>gain eighty six percent of the time, with an average

0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:02.600
<v Speaker 1>gain of eleven percent. So I think looking ahead, investors

0:26:02.600 --> 0:26:04.920
<v Speaker 1>are looking at and they're starting to talk a little

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:07.520
<v Speaker 1>bit about inflation. They're talking about interest rates, but the

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:11.000
<v Speaker 1>big story will continue to be the economic expansion. And

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:14.399
<v Speaker 1>we're constructive on the market's overall, but we think investors

0:26:14.400 --> 0:26:17.240
<v Speaker 1>may need to moderate their return expectations a little bit

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:18.879
<v Speaker 1>in the year ahead. Okay, so what do you mean

0:26:18.880 --> 0:26:21.000
<v Speaker 1>by that? What do you mean by moderate expectations? What's

0:26:21.000 --> 0:26:24.760
<v Speaker 1>a realistic expectation for an investor to have this year? Well,

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:26.880
<v Speaker 1>I think we were looking for further gains. We try

0:26:26.880 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 1>not to put a level on the SMP five hundred.

0:26:29.600 --> 0:26:32.600
<v Speaker 1>It's really almost impossible to target what the actual level

0:26:32.600 --> 0:26:34.680
<v Speaker 1>of the SMP five hundred will be in a given year.

0:26:34.880 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 1>But we try and look at the economic fundamentals. So

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:41.600
<v Speaker 1>we look at things like employment and GDP, consumer spending,

0:26:41.680 --> 0:26:45.919
<v Speaker 1>business spending, UM and are those things those metrics heading

0:26:45.920 --> 0:26:48.000
<v Speaker 1>in the right direction, And we think they are right now.

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:50.960
<v Speaker 1>For example, the unemployment rate right now is around six

0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:54.399
<v Speaker 1>and that's projected to fall to about four and a

0:26:54.440 --> 0:26:57.240
<v Speaker 1>half percent in the next couple of years. Corporate profits

0:26:57.240 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 1>were negative last year, but they're currently forecast rise about

0:27:01.600 --> 0:27:05.520
<v Speaker 1>this year and next year. So overall off of the

0:27:05.600 --> 0:27:08.000
<v Speaker 1>bad low, right off off of a pretty deep low,

0:27:08.680 --> 0:27:11.679
<v Speaker 1>that that's correct. And if you look at GDP, GDP

0:27:11.880 --> 0:27:14.480
<v Speaker 1>numbers were obviously we had a major major decline in

0:27:14.560 --> 0:27:17.720
<v Speaker 1>GDP last year. Now things have really turned around quite

0:27:17.720 --> 0:27:19.680
<v Speaker 1>a bit, and it's hard to believe, but either this

0:27:19.880 --> 0:27:22.800
<v Speaker 1>quarter or next quarter GDP will once again rise to

0:27:22.920 --> 0:27:25.840
<v Speaker 1>an all time high. So UM, there are still some

0:27:26.000 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>risks out there. Consumer competence, for example, has really not

0:27:29.680 --> 0:27:32.880
<v Speaker 1>recaptured a lot of its games, and the weekly jobless

0:27:32.880 --> 0:27:36.080
<v Speaker 1>claims that seven hundred and seventy thousand is still pretty elevated.

0:27:36.119 --> 0:27:39.200
<v Speaker 1>But I think the majority of economic data is relatively

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:42.639
<v Speaker 1>positive right now. But I do wonder. I don't know

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:47.240
<v Speaker 1>if we can compare the recovery after the financial crisis

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>versus the recovery after COVID uh. You know, it does

0:27:50.880 --> 0:27:53.960
<v Speaker 1>feel like it's going to be a fairly strong bounce back,

0:27:55.160 --> 0:27:57.159
<v Speaker 1>especially the second half of the year. Is that how

0:27:57.240 --> 0:27:59.879
<v Speaker 1>you see it? Is their similarities or is it vastly

0:28:00.000 --> 0:28:04.640
<v Speaker 1>different from the recovery that we got after the financial crisis? Well,

0:28:04.720 --> 0:28:07.480
<v Speaker 1>they were very two, very different events. Um, the downturn

0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:08.960
<v Speaker 1>that we had in two thousand and eight two thousand

0:28:09.040 --> 0:28:12.280
<v Speaker 1>nine was really a financial crisis led by problems with

0:28:12.400 --> 0:28:15.000
<v Speaker 1>the banks and and lending to people who didn't deserve

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:17.720
<v Speaker 1>to have loans. In this situation, it was more of

0:28:17.800 --> 0:28:21.760
<v Speaker 1>sort of an exogenous healthcare related scare that caused the

0:28:21.800 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 1>economy to shut down. So it's a very different type

0:28:25.119 --> 0:28:28.159
<v Speaker 1>of event. I think that's why once the economy opened up,

0:28:28.200 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 1>we were able to have a more rapid recovery in

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:33.960
<v Speaker 1>the economy, and you don't have necessarily the kind of

0:28:34.080 --> 0:28:36.800
<v Speaker 1>scars that we had in the financial system which held

0:28:36.880 --> 0:28:40.360
<v Speaker 1>the economy back for several years. Looking at two thousand eight,

0:28:40.440 --> 0:28:42.760
<v Speaker 1>two thousand nine, what are the scars in the financial

0:28:42.760 --> 0:28:44.520
<v Speaker 1>system that we're going to see on the other side

0:28:44.560 --> 0:28:46.800
<v Speaker 1>of this. You mentioned the unemployment rate, and and one

0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:48.200
<v Speaker 1>thing that I keep in mind when we talked about

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:51.200
<v Speaker 1>the unemployment rate is the labor force participation rate and

0:28:51.400 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 1>the way that so many people have dropped out of

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 1>the workforce over the last year. It's disaproportionately affected women

0:28:56.120 --> 0:28:58.000
<v Speaker 1>who many of them whom have had to stay at

0:28:58.080 --> 0:29:01.360
<v Speaker 1>home as kids have not been in school. In person,

0:29:01.720 --> 0:29:03.200
<v Speaker 1>what does that scarring look like and how does it

0:29:03.240 --> 0:29:06.640
<v Speaker 1>manifest in the markets? Um Well, I will commented earlier

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:09.560
<v Speaker 1>on the weekly jobless claims, which are around seven seventy

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:12.640
<v Speaker 1>and that's on a weekly basis, so that really is

0:29:12.720 --> 0:29:15.640
<v Speaker 1>historically very extended. It's a very high number. But you're

0:29:15.720 --> 0:29:18.160
<v Speaker 1>right that the unemployment rate doesn't really capture some of

0:29:18.200 --> 0:29:20.600
<v Speaker 1>the additional workers who have dropped out of labor force.

0:29:20.880 --> 0:29:24.040
<v Speaker 1>And there are also workers who are actually receiving pandemic

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:27.560
<v Speaker 1>unemployment relief, which is not really captured in the numbers.

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:30.680
<v Speaker 1>So there's a long ways to go to recapture all

0:29:30.760 --> 0:29:33.640
<v Speaker 1>of the lost workers. But given the momentum that the

0:29:33.720 --> 0:29:37.000
<v Speaker 1>economy has, it looks like things should continue to recover

0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:39.320
<v Speaker 1>as long as the vaccine role oute goes on track

0:29:39.840 --> 0:29:42.320
<v Speaker 1>and the rest of the global economy recovers as well,

0:29:42.600 --> 0:29:44.760
<v Speaker 1>they'll probably be a little later than the US. So

0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm just I was quick doing some tally. The SNP

0:29:48.160 --> 0:29:51.400
<v Speaker 1>is up seventy six from that market bottom one year ago.

0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:56.480
<v Speaker 1>NASDA so a doubling. And the Russell because we've been

0:29:56.520 --> 0:29:59.920
<v Speaker 1>watching that small cap spaces. Mind you, they were beaten

0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:03.560
<v Speaker 1>up and just a SmackDown in a big way. So

0:30:03.920 --> 0:30:05.880
<v Speaker 1>so where do we Michael, where do we go? Then?

0:30:06.280 --> 0:30:07.920
<v Speaker 1>Where do you want to put? Put some new bats?

0:30:07.960 --> 0:30:10.320
<v Speaker 1>And just got about forty seconds here. Sure, I think

0:30:10.360 --> 0:30:12.880
<v Speaker 1>the important story for two thousand twenty one, as opposed

0:30:12.920 --> 0:30:15.640
<v Speaker 1>to the last several years, it was really mainly that technology.

0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:18.200
<v Speaker 1>I think you're going to see more balanced participation in

0:30:18.240 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>the market. You're going to see not only technology, but

0:30:20.800 --> 0:30:23.360
<v Speaker 1>you're going to see the industrials, the financials and other

0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:25.760
<v Speaker 1>parts of the market. And it won't just be large cap,

0:30:25.880 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 1>it'll be mid cap, in small cap, and I think

0:30:28.360 --> 0:30:30.719
<v Speaker 1>possibly for the first time in many years, you may

0:30:30.800 --> 0:30:34.600
<v Speaker 1>finally start to see foreign markets participate alongside with the

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:37.479
<v Speaker 1>US market. All Right, we're gonna have to leave it there.

0:30:37.520 --> 0:30:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Michael Sheldon, executive director and chief investment officer at High

0:30:41.040 --> 0:30:43.480
<v Speaker 1>Tower r DM Financial Group, joining US on the phone

0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:46.440
<v Speaker 1>from Westport, Connecticut. Michael, thanks so much for taking the

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:48.840
<v Speaker 1>time today. Yeah, listen, I mean some of the numbers

0:30:48.840 --> 0:30:50.760
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna probably be seeing over the next six months

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:52.560
<v Speaker 1>are going to be like what And you just gotta

0:30:52.600 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 1>remember where we're coming from one year ago, remember that March.

0:30:57.160 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 1>It's pretty rough, alright, but that was the beginning of

0:30:59.600 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 1>the bounce back. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.200
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:10.040
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0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:13.080
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0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:14.680
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