Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing
Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance,
Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business
Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and
Speaker 1: analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on
Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. You've got Astra Zeneca. It
Speaker 1: looks like we've got another what fourth vaccine? Now, yeah,
Speaker 1: well it still lets to get a ridens use authorization,
Speaker 1: but the headline number is a good number. This is
Speaker 1: good news, right seven efficacy, as you said, so hopefully
Speaker 1: they'll be more confidence in using it. But then you've
Speaker 1: got we just talked about it New Jersey, New York
Speaker 1: like their you know, New Jersey specifically pausing for the
Speaker 1: rollbacks of restrictions as it's watching its COVID cases once
Speaker 1: again searched to the highest in the nation. Some really
Speaker 1: concerning numbers as well. All right, so that's going on.
Speaker 1: You also have Germany doing rollbacks. I mean, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of interesting things going on that reminds you that
Speaker 1: this is not a straight path forward. Let's get into
Speaker 1: it with a voice that we've talked to many times
Speaker 1: over the past year, Dartyman Abuse. She is CEO and
Speaker 1: co founder at Incredible Health. Her company connects hospitals with
Speaker 1: nurses and other healthcare workers, and she joins us once
Speaker 1: again on the phone in San Francisco. Dr Abuse, Nice
Speaker 1: to have you here with Tim and myself. How are you.
Speaker 1: I'm doing well, Thank you, Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: having me on the show again. Well, it's good to
Speaker 1: have you back. We were trying to make sense of
Speaker 1: like where to start with you. So tell me what
Speaker 1: you think are the important headlines, Uh, you know across
Speaker 1: the US globally that you think our audience needs to
Speaker 1: be focusing on. So I think some a critical set
Speaker 1: of headlines around the healthcare workers themselves. Um. And so
Speaker 1: what we've done is we've published the report recently that
Speaker 1: looks at the impact COVID nineteen her paddle on healthcare workers,
Speaker 1: specifically nurses, over the last twelve months and there's been
Speaker 1: a whole set of interesting findings. UM. The reason it's
Speaker 1: important is because these healthcare workers are the ones delivering
Speaker 1: care and taking care of COVID patients. UM. They're also
Speaker 1: being exposed on the front lines to COVID. UH. And
Speaker 1: you know, healthcare workers are the biggest group of labor.
Speaker 1: It's the biggest labor sector in the country today. UM.
Speaker 1: And so so that's why I think it's important to highlight. UM.
Speaker 1: There's a few important findings that I want to share
Speaker 1: with the audience. UM. One is that what we've seen
Speaker 1: is that actual compensation for healthcare workers has gone up.
Speaker 1: In the last twelve months, it's probably been seen. Healthcare
Speaker 1: workers have seen the biggest increases in compensation both salary
Speaker 1: and signing bonuses compared to any other previous time in history.
Speaker 1: And a lot of that is driven by the increased
Speaker 1: demand for them. UM. The second area that's interesting is
Speaker 1: the turnover has also increased. You know, nurses and healthcare
Speaker 1: workers are leaving the workforce in higher numbers than ever before.
Speaker 1: A lot of a lot of nurses are taking advantage
Speaker 1: of early retirement. UM. They're also leaving due to fatigue,
Speaker 1: and stress. And then the third areas that's important is
Speaker 1: how healthcare workers are perceiving their local communities in that
Speaker 1: don't feel appreciated by their local communities because their local
Speaker 1: communities are not necessarily following COVID guidelines. There we can
Speaker 1: go ye, there some some some really mixed news in
Speaker 1: the report. Um, let's let's let's start just with the turnover,
Speaker 1: because look, it's not surprising given what healthcare workers have
Speaker 1: had to endure over the last you know, thirteen months
Speaker 1: when it comes to the pandemic, that there could be
Speaker 1: a lot of them who are very tired. How much
Speaker 1: higher is turnover right now when it comes to nurses
Speaker 1: and what needs to be done to make sure that
Speaker 1: this doesn't continue. So chief nursing officers in chief HR
Speaker 1: officers of them report that the turnover has increased, and
Speaker 1: it's increased by about five Now keep in mind nurse
Speaker 1: turnover already was around even before the pandemics, so now
Speaker 1: it's gone up to about um the key drivers of
Speaker 1: that are are exactly what you state is the fatigue,
Speaker 1: the anxiety to stress that comes from coping with the
Speaker 1: pandemic and and being exposed to COVID. UH and then
Speaker 1: the other areas just you know, just nurses taking advantage
Speaker 1: of of the options they have, including things like early retirement. Hey,
Speaker 1: one thing I want to ask you, um Dr Appoise,
Speaker 1: is that what you talk about is turnover, and there's
Speaker 1: a fairly high turnover as you just mentioned with nurses,
Speaker 1: but we're seeing more of it because of the past year.
Speaker 1: Are you concerned because of turnover or burnout? That especially?
Speaker 1: I go back to the headline, Tim and I talked
Speaker 1: about where you know, New Jersey is now seeing their
Speaker 1: case counts surge to the highest in the nation, and
Speaker 1: there are hot spots once again around the country. You know,
Speaker 1: we've had a lot of conversations with with heads of
Speaker 1: the Atlantic Health System, with Northwill Health, the CEO joined us,
Speaker 1: and they constantly talked about this plateau ng of numbers
Speaker 1: that we're not going down. So I do want under
Speaker 1: are you concerned at all about us not having the
Speaker 1: support staff, the nursing staff that if we get another
Speaker 1: spike that could be problematic. Yeah, we we are concerned
Speaker 1: about that. And that's been you know, every time a
Speaker 1: new search happens, the staffing situation and the hiring situation
Speaker 1: becomes more more challenging because each time there's a surge,
Speaker 1: there's a set of people who there's a set of
Speaker 1: healthcare workers that permanently leave the workforce. And I'm wondering,
Speaker 1: are you setting up for another surge? Because I what
Speaker 1: I love about talking to you mine is that you
Speaker 1: are seeing what's going on around the country and kind
Speaker 1: of a bigger picture. And I'm wondering. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of optimism. It's spring here in New York, and people
Speaker 1: feel like things are starting to open up again, but
Speaker 1: I feel like again, step forward, step back, because we
Speaker 1: are still in a pandemic, and what are you seeing?
Speaker 1: How how concerned should we be about maybe another wave
Speaker 1: based on what you're seeing in the conversations you're having, Right,
Speaker 1: So we are concerned for for more surges and specific
Speaker 1: states and specific locations UM. And the reason for that
Speaker 1: or the impact is this several reasons. One, I think
Speaker 1: we're going in the next few weeks, we're going to
Speaker 1: be running into UM Americans not wanting to take the vaccine.
Speaker 1: And by the way, that includes the nurses. Our study
Speaker 1: does show that thirty nurses have chosen not to take
Speaker 1: the vaccine because they're not they don't feel that they
Speaker 1: you know, they just chosen not to UM the other
Speaker 1: and then the second areas and the second area of
Speaker 1: concern is the new variants, the new COVID variants, and
Speaker 1: and and how how much more UH spread that they'll
Speaker 1: be spreading more UM. That's the other area of concern
Speaker 1: right expect we've all talked about that, like how many
Speaker 1: vaccines do we how much of the population do we
Speaker 1: need to see? What percentage vaccinating in order to get
Speaker 1: ahead of those variants. Dr Abuside, you referred to vaccine
Speaker 1: hesitancy among healthcare workers that that you're finding at Incredible Health.
Speaker 1: Give us the statistic, because Carol and I talked last
Speaker 1: week about a Washington Post poll that found that more
Speaker 1: more than four intent healthcare workers have not been vaccinated.
Speaker 1: Why are you seeing it at Incredible Health. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: what we're what we've discovered in our study that nurses
Speaker 1: are saying they don't plan to take the vaccine at
Speaker 1: all at all, even when one becomes available to them.
Speaker 1: The healthcare workers were first in line, so effectively they're
Speaker 1: they all have for the most part, access to the vaccine.
Speaker 1: I think the skepticism UM and this hesitation is mostly
Speaker 1: driven by disinformation honestly, UM, A lot of that's being
Speaker 1: driven by social media disinformation. UH rumors and myths like
Speaker 1: the vaccine is going to change your DNA and kind
Speaker 1: of think things like that that are just completely false,
Speaker 1: UM or honestly to blame. It is a bit shocking
Speaker 1: to see healthcare workers UH kind of fall for this,
Speaker 1: for this disinformation. But regardless that that, that just highlights
Speaker 1: the need for uh, much better and much clearer public
Speaker 1: health communication about how how the vaccines work, UM, what
Speaker 1: what the risks are, and what the risk or not
Speaker 1: and really clarifying that UM as a whole. And I
Speaker 1: think it's the hospitals and health system the employers that
Speaker 1: are responsible for this communication as well as you know,
Speaker 1: our government's both federal, state, and local governments and really
Speaker 1: communicating the safety of the vaccine as well as the
Speaker 1: purpose of it. So what could hospitals be doing better
Speaker 1: to do this and what could governments be doing better
Speaker 1: to communicate this? Because this is really surprising to me.
Speaker 1: Medicine is evidence based, it's science based, and these health
Speaker 1: care professionals are not following the science. You're right, it is.
Speaker 1: It is really surprising. I think what's what's going to
Speaker 1: be required is like a cohesive and clear campaign communication
Speaker 1: campaign honestly about about the science. I mean, look, it's
Speaker 1: been challenging for all of us, including the health care workers,
Speaker 1: because the science it does change from week to weeks.
Speaker 1: The CDC guidelines do change months to months. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: because this is an evolving situation, and scientists are learning
Speaker 1: more and more about the pandemic, and more research papers
Speaker 1: are getting published and so on. Right, so it's not
Speaker 1: it's not surprising. I guess that we're kind of that
Speaker 1: we you know, that that the entire groups that people
Speaker 1: may be out of date. I think it just shows
Speaker 1: that you really need to have a consistent, clear, frequent
Speaker 1: campaign campaigns and communication on on what the correct messaging is.
Speaker 1: You know. It's interesting and I was looking for numbers.
Speaker 1: I was at the m A website by trying to
Speaker 1: get an idea of how many doctors have actually taken
Speaker 1: the vaccine. And I remember talking I can't think of
Speaker 1: the guests, but they oversee a physicians group and there
Speaker 1: was some even hesitant hesitancy among doctors early on in
Speaker 1: terms of taking the vaccine. But I do feel like
Speaker 1: this is a crucial part of US all moving forward.
Speaker 1: Dr Abuse aide that healthcare workers in particular, you know,
Speaker 1: you would think that their front and center understanding, um,
Speaker 1: what the vaccine is about. So it's it's a little
Speaker 1: worrisome that there's some nervousness above that community. Absolutely, I
Speaker 1: mean the numbers among the general public US of Americans
Speaker 1: are hesitant about taking the vaccine. So you know we're
Speaker 1: going to start running into this issue in a matter
Speaker 1: of weeks here, especially as as a as a supply
Speaker 1: of vaccine continues to grow in the logistics and the
Speaker 1: rollout continues. Does it mean we don't get to hurt
Speaker 1: immunity potentially? Potentially? I mean if it's not solved, is this,
Speaker 1: if not enough people take the vaccine, that's correct, that's
Speaker 1: the that's the risk that we're running. So how are
Speaker 1: you planning for this? At incredible health? I mean, how
Speaker 1: are you planning for staffing, for availability of employees? And
Speaker 1: we'll live about thirty seconds left. Yeah, So we're we
Speaker 1: have several initiatives in place. We're continuing our national expansion
Speaker 1: um through throughout throughout the country, UM, and we're we're
Speaker 1: we have a presence Sir teaing State we're also adding
Speaker 1: products features including a mental you know, mental health features, uh,
Speaker 1: A vibrant nurse community where nurses can support and advise
Speaker 1: each other. So we're continuing with our product roadmaps and
Speaker 1: our geographic expansion of adding more, more and more health
Speaker 1: systness and nurses to the platform. All right, well, good
Speaker 1: to know, and I'm really great to hear about your survey.
Speaker 1: Um wheresome though some of those data points. Dr man
Speaker 1: Abus she is co founder and chief executive officer at
Speaker 1: Incredible Health, on the phone in San Francisco. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think it's really disconcerting to have people who do
Speaker 1: deal with patients, who people who do deal with medicine
Speaker 1: and do deal with giving shots, be so concerned about
Speaker 1: getting the vaccine and the message that sends to patients. Also, Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I do wonder and worry about the impact that
Speaker 1: man may have an in order for us to reopen
Speaker 1: up our economies and really get to that HERD immunity.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. So never having
Speaker 1: to say you're sorry, Nope, we're not talking about love story.
Speaker 1: I did see something on it over the weekend. That's
Speaker 1: why it's in my head. A should turn my microphone on.
Speaker 1: I thought you were talking about Justin Bieber. That too. Nice.
Speaker 1: Nice stuck in my head since reading this story. So
Speaker 1: we're what we're talking about, though, is the new rule
Speaker 1: of politics. Let's get into This story is going to
Speaker 1: be featured in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: magazine that later. This week's story already online and on
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Let's get to Boomberg News political reporter Ryan T.
Speaker 1: Beckwith on the phone in Washington, d C. Along with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business We get it, or Joe Webber on the
Speaker 1: access line in Brooklyn. Sorry not sorry, Joel. Yeah. And
Speaker 1: and this is the story that Ryan, Um when you
Speaker 1: when you kind of mentioned it in passing Um, I
Speaker 1: was like, you can go ahead and write that story,
Speaker 1: like right now, the world needs to hear and and
Speaker 1: I think you know it's really rooted in the Governor
Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo's um recent tribulence, but it's even bigger than that. Um.
Speaker 1: So Ryan, to walk us through the art of the
Speaker 1: apology or lack thereof in politics. Now, Yeah, if you
Speaker 1: think about the traditional apology, and I think if you're
Speaker 1: of a certain age, you might be able to picture
Speaker 1: Jimmy Swagger with the tears streaming down his faint um
Speaker 1: on stage. The book that I was talking with, the
Speaker 1: author I just called the Artists of Public Problem by
Speaker 1: Susan Wisebauer, and she um identified sort of certain commonalities
Speaker 1: in the very public apologies that we specifically have demanded
Speaker 1: over the years from politicians for their sexual mistake, UM,
Speaker 1: whether that's cheating or harassments or or whatever. Uh. And
Speaker 1: the first is that they get up in public and
Speaker 1: and they give it in person um to show how
Speaker 1: serious that that they are, not through a statement or whatever. Uh.
Speaker 1: And often they had on one side their spouse, on
Speaker 1: the other side their pastor UM or other religious leader.
Speaker 1: And uh. Then they begin by acknowledging what they did wrong, UM,
Speaker 1: specifically apologizing directly to the victim UM as well as
Speaker 1: to their spouse. Usually UM. Sometimes they would go further
Speaker 1: and apologize other people, the people of you know that
Speaker 1: I represent the voters whatever. Mark Stanford, his apology just
Speaker 1: went on and on. It was a pologize and good
Speaker 1: his friend Tom, you apologize to people of Congressional district,
Speaker 1: apologize the people of faith in South Carolina who might
Speaker 1: find others questions in our faith because he had to
Speaker 1: active quotes. So um. And then they and then they
Speaker 1: end by acknowledging they'll do better in the So what
Speaker 1: happened because we didn't hear sorry from Donald Trump very
Speaker 1: frequently and and we haven't heard it depends on how
Speaker 1: you define apology when it comes to what's happening with
Speaker 1: with Governor Andrew Cuomo right now right so um. When
Speaker 1: I was mentioning this to to other experts of the
Speaker 1: apology as I said something about Donald Trump's apology after
Speaker 1: the Access Hollywood tape, and they said, like the fact
Speaker 1: that you're calling this an apology is like part of
Speaker 1: the problem here. Like Donald Donald Trump after the Access
Speaker 1: Hollywood at it one of two occasions were sort of
Speaker 1: apologize for something, the other being his Charlotte stilpon marks,
Speaker 1: which he's been kind of fluffed back, um and and
Speaker 1: and he got up basically and he said, you know,
Speaker 1: his look like I you know, said a few things. Um,
Speaker 1: but it's not nearly as bounded what Bill Clinton did.
Speaker 1: And hill Rick Quinton was right there with him and
Speaker 1: the pivoted, stretching into an attack. So he didn't you
Speaker 1: really acknowledge what he said and minimize it. So that's
Speaker 1: one way in which like we are seeing somewhat of
Speaker 1: an apology, like is speaking to a lesser case like
Speaker 1: you've you've been charged with manslaughter and you get up
Speaker 1: and you got look, I might have pushed a few
Speaker 1: people around, you know, like you're not you're not acknowledging
Speaker 1: what you did. And that Onemo did that started saying
Speaker 1: I may have made some women uncomfortable. That's not what
Speaker 1: he's accused of. Well, well, the thing is Ryan, you know,
Speaker 1: in this frenetic news cycle, like we're all quickly moving
Speaker 1: on to the next thing. In many ways, this can
Speaker 1: be a very smart strategy if you just kind of
Speaker 1: write it out, you know, everybody might move on and
Speaker 1: you'll get to hold your seat. Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: think it depends. It also requires a certain sense of shamelessness. Um,
Speaker 1: Ralph Northam apologized and then he also didn't resign. You
Speaker 1: just hung on. And I think that Trump showed that
Speaker 1: that strategy can work. That the the cost, the political
Speaker 1: cost for two other people of removing you from office,
Speaker 1: it's just really high. It's really hard Cuomwell can basically
Speaker 1: just you know, hold on to his seat and say
Speaker 1: I'm not going anywhere, and the legislature is going to
Speaker 1: have to do a lot of work to remove him
Speaker 1: from office. Someone is going to have to defeat him
Speaker 1: in a primary, someone's gonna have to defeat him in
Speaker 1: a general election. Well, it easier to just say hey,
Speaker 1: you know whatever and move on. But the difference is
Speaker 1: that he could have apologized. He could have said, I
Speaker 1: did I did things wrong, I'm sorry, here's what I
Speaker 1: did wrong, here's the people that I've wrong. He didn't
Speaker 1: really do that. By the end of the original press
Speaker 1: conference in which he was giving us apologie, he was
Speaker 1: already saying, wait for the facts. And and that's an
Speaker 1: indirect way of saying basically the same thing that a
Speaker 1: politician who says these women are all liars says, Like,
Speaker 1: if you say wait for the facts, then you're saying
Speaker 1: what these people are saying, it's not a factual. And
Speaker 1: if you're saying that, you're not really apologizing. And that's
Speaker 1: the problem. So Ryan, one of the other things that
Speaker 1: I thought was really surprising in your story is the
Speaker 1: year that the traditional apology political apology was actually uniquely
Speaker 1: American and that we might becoming more like the rest
Speaker 1: of the world. Can you can you tell us what
Speaker 1: what that actually means, because I've always thought public apologies
Speaker 1: were pretty universal idea. I think that the format in
Speaker 1: which we had required people to apologize in the past
Speaker 1: was very stylized and was very much um rooted in
Speaker 1: the sort of Christian confessions of sin um, you know,
Speaker 1: within certain churches where we're sort of stand up in
Speaker 1: publicly apologize, this is this one and pay Then why
Speaker 1: the politicians we think up who did the best at this?
Speaker 1: Uh format? Bill Clinton just did you know, biting the
Speaker 1: lower lip and I had sinned, you know, like that
Speaker 1: that kind of apology. It's a very specific American requirement.
Speaker 1: The other reasons for this, The other reason why we
Speaker 1: sort of asked you to go to another country and
Speaker 1: and we're a waitress brings your food and you say
Speaker 1: thank you, like people lookink you're funny, right, And and
Speaker 1: I had it with some some people from another country
Speaker 1: about this. They're like, they're being paid to bring you food,
Speaker 1: why are you saying thank you? And it's because we've
Speaker 1: Americans are uncomfortable with power differentials and so right, when
Speaker 1: someone is accused of this kind of behavior, it seems
Speaker 1: like they're taking advantage of their social situation. The only
Speaker 1: way to really cuberate that is for them to level down,
Speaker 1: to apologize and put themselves differ. Well. It's an interesting
Speaker 1: read and certainly a sign of the times. Ryan, Thank
Speaker 1: you so much. Ryan take back with Bloomberg News along
Speaker 1: with Joel Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes.
Speaker 1: Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. Leon Black He's the Wall
Speaker 1: Street billionaire. He appeared to be a main client of
Speaker 1: disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. He is stepping down as CEO
Speaker 1: of Apollo Global Management. And Tim, this is months ahead
Speaker 1: of schedule. Yeah, it is Shinelli Bossik is Wall Street
Speaker 1: reporter at Bloomberg News. Joinsing this now on the O
Speaker 1: from right here in our New York City bureau. But
Speaker 1: we are doing social distancing. Socionally is not here in
Speaker 1: the studio somewhere, even though I've seen her many Yes, exactly, Hey, Shnally.
Speaker 1: As Carol mentioned, this happened months ahead of schedule. How
Speaker 1: big of a surprise was this to you? Listen, the
Speaker 1: fact that he stepped back was not a surprise from CEO.
Speaker 1: It was months a had a schedule. That was a surprise.
Speaker 1: But he is also stepping back to him as chairman
Speaker 1: of Apollo. And remember that is a big step back.
Speaker 1: He's stepping back from the firm in such a big way.
Speaker 1: He's led the firm for thirty one years. He said
Speaker 1: in a letter to the board today that the press
Speaker 1: around his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein has been has been
Speaker 1: a real strain on him and has taken a toll
Speaker 1: on his health. And so he is looking to take
Speaker 1: a step back from the firm and from the spotlight.
Speaker 1: Why though, is it more about health, Is it more
Speaker 1: about stepping back from the spotlight? A little of both.
Speaker 1: It looks like all I asked this today too, because
Speaker 1: the question is investors, when before he stepped down a CEO,
Speaker 1: investors really had put a lot of heat on Apollo
Speaker 1: and had really threatened to not be investing more with Apollo.
Speaker 1: Apollo zone performance has been really sluggish when you look
Speaker 1: at its performance next to its piers. So clearly investors
Speaker 1: and other stakeholders wanted answers, and Apollo has been making
Speaker 1: very very drastic changes. Listen, the relationship between UH, Leon
Speaker 1: Black and Jeffrey Epstein, a hundred and fifty eight million
Speaker 1: dollars worth the payments was at a very big scale,
Speaker 1: even though a law firm found that there was no
Speaker 1: evidence of wrongdoing on Leon Black's part. So, uh, it's
Speaker 1: something certainly that had a lot of lingering questions, even
Speaker 1: after the report had came out and clarified that Leon
Speaker 1: Black had no engagement with any of the criminal activity
Speaker 1: that Jeffrey Epstein was involved with. Otionally, what's then the
Speaker 1: reaction on Wall Street, not necessarily from from companies in
Speaker 1: terms of stock price movements, but specifically from your sources
Speaker 1: who you're talking to, where they are shocked as as
Speaker 1: many people were yes in the sense that this really
Speaker 1: was Leon Black's firm. For him to step back a
Speaker 1: CEO and become chairman, that was something a lot of
Speaker 1: people had expected. For him to take this mega step
Speaker 1: back from the firm was a lot less expected. He
Speaker 1: is going to remain the single largest shareholder of Apollo,
Speaker 1: so that is one link he will still have. But
Speaker 1: from now on out, we can expect a much different
Speaker 1: firm ahead, and now the new CEO, Mark Rowan, it's
Speaker 1: really going to be up to him to show what
Speaker 1: that looks like. As an aside, Jake Clayton, the former
Speaker 1: chairman of the SEC will become now the chair of
Speaker 1: Apollo and the board will be expanded, so we have
Speaker 1: a different firm on our hands. Hey, so what about
Speaker 1: Josh Harris? Right, So, he was seen as having at
Speaker 1: a closer relationship with Leon Black and deemed to be
Speaker 1: a more likely successor according to our reporting. What does
Speaker 1: it mean that he wasn't chosen to be the new
Speaker 1: CEO and if he leaves the firm is at a problem? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's an interesting question because it's something that's definitely a
Speaker 1: big question on Wall Street right now. He is one
Speaker 1: of the firm's co founders. He's very much involved in
Speaker 1: the firm, but he has a lot of side gigs, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, including UH co owner of UM, a bunch
Speaker 1: of sports teams, So we know Josh Harris has a
Speaker 1: life on the side. Uh Apolo is looking to merge
Speaker 1: with a Theme, which is a big insurance company it owns,
Speaker 1: and that was really the big brandchild of Mark Rowan,
Speaker 1: so more and more you're seeing the co founder Mark
Speaker 1: Rohan put a bigger and bigger stamp on the firm.
Speaker 1: And you know, consistency is not a bad thing. The
Speaker 1: face of the firm, even underneath that level, is changing
Speaker 1: quite a bit. We've seen big deals uh, come out
Speaker 1: of the co presidents and new sorry the new cove
Speaker 1: co heads of the private equity group, which are Matt
Speaker 1: Nord and David Samber. And even seeing the younger generations
Speaker 1: start to do deals and put their stamp on the
Speaker 1: firm is interesting as well. What about when it comes
Speaker 1: to Jay Clayton, who you mentioned, of course, former chair
Speaker 1: of the SEC has been a member of the company's board,
Speaker 1: but now becoming non executive chairman. What does he do
Speaker 1: at Apollo? Yeah, I think what people want to see
Speaker 1: is more independent on the board of Apollo and a
Speaker 1: firm that you know, it started really as a private firm, uh,
Speaker 1: and then even as a public firm in public markets.
Speaker 1: After when public uh, it was still quite secretive, right
Speaker 1: and it was still had such a such a huge
Speaker 1: amount of its economics tied to its founders. They're changing
Speaker 1: even the voting structure of the firm and the share
Speaker 1: structure so that it's one vote, one share, and so
Speaker 1: as that happens as it becomes more institutionalized, to have
Speaker 1: someone like Jay Clayton kind of at the helmet's chair
Speaker 1: helps make it a more professional firm, and it brings
Speaker 1: it more in the ranks of a firm that more
Speaker 1: institutional investors may own. Of course, that will depend on
Speaker 1: its performance. And also another thing people pointed out today
Speaker 1: is the ability to return dividends at the same page
Speaker 1: that black Stone where the shares are up this year. Well,
Speaker 1: and there is I feel like almost some symbolism or
Speaker 1: maybe a sign being sent by Jake Clayton being named
Speaker 1: this position, because listen, this is a guy with incredible
Speaker 1: stature on Wall Street, the whole financial community. There is
Speaker 1: an assumption, you could make almost finale that he wouldn't
Speaker 1: have done this if he didn't feel comfortable staying at
Speaker 1: the firm. Just got about twenty seconds here. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: that's the signal. This is a big, new institutional firm
Speaker 1: with a much more independent board, and that's the signal
Speaker 1: that they're trying to send to society. Well, great analysis,
Speaker 1: um really appreciate it. Sni Bostic. She's Wall Street reporter
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg News on the phone in New York City.
Speaker 1: Whenever there's a big financial bank story, man, I'm always
Speaker 1: getting a message from her in the morning that just
Speaker 1: kind of puts it into perspective. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Radio. Let's bring in Michael Sheldon. He is
Speaker 1: executive director, chief investment officer at High Tower RDM Financial
Speaker 1: based in Westport, Connecticut, and that's where he is on
Speaker 1: the phone. Michael, good to have you back. How are
Speaker 1: you good. Thanks very much, It's been a while, but
Speaker 1: good to hear from you. Yeah, what's going on in
Speaker 1: your world? What in terms of investment stories? Market stories
Speaker 1: are a kind of front and center for you. Well,
Speaker 1: I thought I thought it would be interesting to put
Speaker 1: things in perspective, as you know, as you well know,
Speaker 1: tomorrow is going to be the one year anniversary of
Speaker 1: the market bottom that we had back in the two
Speaker 1: thousand and twenty. Back then, back in March of two
Speaker 1: thousand twenty, things didn't look very good, but we had
Speaker 1: the fastest decline into a bear market, and over the
Speaker 1: past twelve months following that, we had the biggest rally
Speaker 1: in the post World War two period. So I thought
Speaker 1: it would help to put things in perspective. Now, what
Speaker 1: what should investors expect in the second year of a
Speaker 1: bull market? So in the second year of bull markets,
Speaker 1: we look back at all the bull markets going back
Speaker 1: to World War Two. The markets have posted a positive
Speaker 1: gain eighty six percent of the time, with an average
Speaker 1: gain of eleven percent. So I think looking ahead, investors
Speaker 1: are looking at and they're starting to talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about inflation. They're talking about interest rates, but the
Speaker 1: big story will continue to be the economic expansion. And
Speaker 1: we're constructive on the market's overall, but we think investors
Speaker 1: may need to moderate their return expectations a little bit
Speaker 1: in the year ahead. Okay, so what do you mean
Speaker 1: by that? What do you mean by moderate expectations? What's
Speaker 1: a realistic expectation for an investor to have this year? Well,
Speaker 1: I think we were looking for further gains. We try
Speaker 1: not to put a level on the SMP five hundred.
Speaker 1: It's really almost impossible to target what the actual level
Speaker 1: of the SMP five hundred will be in a given year.
Speaker 1: But we try and look at the economic fundamentals. So
Speaker 1: we look at things like employment and GDP, consumer spending,
Speaker 1: business spending, UM and are those things those metrics heading
Speaker 1: in the right direction, And we think they are right now.
Speaker 1: For example, the unemployment rate right now is around six
Speaker 1: and that's projected to fall to about four and a
Speaker 1: half percent in the next couple of years. Corporate profits
Speaker 1: were negative last year, but they're currently forecast rise about
Speaker 1: this year and next year. So overall off of the
Speaker 1: bad low, right off off of a pretty deep low,
Speaker 1: that that's correct. And if you look at GDP, GDP
Speaker 1: numbers were obviously we had a major major decline in
Speaker 1: GDP last year. Now things have really turned around quite
Speaker 1: a bit, and it's hard to believe, but either this
Speaker 1: quarter or next quarter GDP will once again rise to
Speaker 1: an all time high. So UM, there are still some
Speaker 1: risks out there. Consumer competence, for example, has really not
Speaker 1: recaptured a lot of its games, and the weekly jobless
Speaker 1: claims that seven hundred and seventy thousand is still pretty elevated.
Speaker 1: But I think the majority of economic data is relatively
Speaker 1: positive right now. But I do wonder. I don't know
Speaker 1: if we can compare the recovery after the financial crisis
Speaker 1: versus the recovery after COVID uh. You know, it does
Speaker 1: feel like it's going to be a fairly strong bounce back,
Speaker 1: especially the second half of the year. Is that how
Speaker 1: you see it? Is their similarities or is it vastly
Speaker 1: different from the recovery that we got after the financial crisis? Well,
Speaker 1: they were very two, very different events. Um, the downturn
Speaker 1: that we had in two thousand and eight two thousand
Speaker 1: nine was really a financial crisis led by problems with
Speaker 1: the banks and and lending to people who didn't deserve
Speaker 1: to have loans. In this situation, it was more of
Speaker 1: sort of an exogenous healthcare related scare that caused the
Speaker 1: economy to shut down. So it's a very different type
Speaker 1: of event. I think that's why once the economy opened up,
Speaker 1: we were able to have a more rapid recovery in
Speaker 1: the economy, and you don't have necessarily the kind of
Speaker 1: scars that we had in the financial system which held
Speaker 1: the economy back for several years. Looking at two thousand eight,
Speaker 1: two thousand nine, what are the scars in the financial
Speaker 1: system that we're going to see on the other side
Speaker 1: of this. You mentioned the unemployment rate, and and one
Speaker 1: thing that I keep in mind when we talked about
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate is the labor force participation rate and
Speaker 1: the way that so many people have dropped out of
Speaker 1: the workforce over the last year. It's disaproportionately affected women
Speaker 1: who many of them whom have had to stay at
Speaker 1: home as kids have not been in school. In person,
Speaker 1: what does that scarring look like and how does it
Speaker 1: manifest in the markets? Um Well, I will commented earlier
Speaker 1: on the weekly jobless claims, which are around seven seventy
Speaker 1: and that's on a weekly basis, so that really is
Speaker 1: historically very extended. It's a very high number. But you're
Speaker 1: right that the unemployment rate doesn't really capture some of
Speaker 1: the additional workers who have dropped out of labor force.
Speaker 1: And there are also workers who are actually receiving pandemic
Speaker 1: unemployment relief, which is not really captured in the numbers.
Speaker 1: So there's a long ways to go to recapture all
Speaker 1: of the lost workers. But given the momentum that the
Speaker 1: economy has, it looks like things should continue to recover
Speaker 1: as long as the vaccine role oute goes on track
Speaker 1: and the rest of the global economy recovers as well,
Speaker 1: they'll probably be a little later than the US. So
Speaker 1: I'm just I was quick doing some tally. The SNP
Speaker 1: is up seventy six from that market bottom one year ago.
Speaker 1: NASDA so a doubling. And the Russell because we've been
Speaker 1: watching that small cap spaces. Mind you, they were beaten
Speaker 1: up and just a SmackDown in a big way. So
Speaker 1: so where do we Michael, where do we go? Then?
Speaker 1: Where do you want to put? Put some new bats?
Speaker 1: And just got about forty seconds here. Sure, I think
Speaker 1: the important story for two thousand twenty one, as opposed
Speaker 1: to the last several years, it was really mainly that technology.
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see more balanced participation in
Speaker 1: the market. You're going to see not only technology, but
Speaker 1: you're going to see the industrials, the financials and other
Speaker 1: parts of the market. And it won't just be large cap,
Speaker 1: it'll be mid cap, in small cap, and I think
Speaker 1: possibly for the first time in many years, you may
Speaker 1: finally start to see foreign markets participate alongside with the
Speaker 1: US market. All Right, we're gonna have to leave it there.
Speaker 1: Michael Sheldon, executive director and chief investment officer at High
Speaker 1: Tower r DM Financial Group, joining US on the phone
Speaker 1: from Westport, Connecticut. Michael, thanks so much for taking the
Speaker 1: time today. Yeah, listen, I mean some of the numbers
Speaker 1: we're gonna probably be seeing over the next six months
Speaker 1: are going to be like what And you just gotta
Speaker 1: remember where we're coming from one year ago, remember that March.
Speaker 1: It's pretty rough, alright, but that was the beginning of
Speaker 1: the bounce back. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
Speaker 1: Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: and you can also listen to our radio show at
Speaker 1: two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube.
Speaker 1: Search to Bloomberg Global News.