Speaker 1: Also media. Okay, hi everyone, and welcome to it could
Speaker 1: happen here today. We're very lucky to be joined by
Speaker 1: Vladimir von Bildenberg, who's an underground journalist who covers Syria,
Speaker 1: and Curtis Dan has written two books, including one on
Speaker 1: the alliance between the SDF and the Coalition. Is that
Speaker 1: is that a fair introduction in Vladimir, Yeah, okay, thank you,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. There has obviously
Speaker 1: been a massive increase, in a massive change in the
Speaker 1: conflict in Syria in the last week or so, just
Speaker 1: under a week, and I think the information that's available
Speaker 1: to people is often very bad, very delayed, or one
Speaker 1: side or rather putting out propaganda things which mischaracterized the
Speaker 1: situation on the ground, especially with regard to the Syrian
Speaker 1: National Army, who we're going to talk about. Would you
Speaker 1: mind giving us a sort of very brief explanation of
Speaker 1: what has happened since last Wednesday when HTS, who will
Speaker 1: have to explain later, launch their operation against Aleppo.
Speaker 2: Well, in general, I mean the current situation Aleppo came
Speaker 2: to a surprise too many many people didn't expect it.
Speaker 2: So just after the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Hayata te Rocham,
Speaker 2: which is an offshoot of al Qaeda. So they said
Speaker 2: they don't have relations with al Qaida anymore. They split
Speaker 2: off from al Qaeda. They launched a big operation in
Speaker 2: Aleppo against the Serian government or the same regime, whatever
Speaker 2: you want to call it. I think initially they didn't
Speaker 2: think that they would go so far, all the way
Speaker 2: into Alappo city. There have been agreements between Russia, Iran,
Speaker 2: and Turkey and Syria in Astana about the deconflection zone
Speaker 2: in the northwestern province of Italy. So the HTS insurgents,
Speaker 2: they claim they launched this operation towards Aleppo in response
Speaker 2: to violation of this Astana agreement. So according to that agreement,
Speaker 2: this area will be in control of the HDS and
Speaker 2: the other area will be control of the regime and
Speaker 2: they wouldn't bother each other. But this agreement was never
Speaker 2: really implemented, I mean versus Russia. They were constantly bombing it.
Speaker 2: Sometimes the HTS would attack regime positions. Also according to
Speaker 2: this deconfliction zone, actually the Serian government and reining back
Speaker 2: armed groups they went actually in that the deconfliction zone
Speaker 2: was supposed to be controlled by the Seerian insurgents. So
Speaker 2: they launched this operation in response to the they say
Speaker 2: the violations by the Serian government, and I think because
Speaker 2: when they realized that the defenses of the Serian government
Speaker 2: very weak, they pushed further into Aleppo and it was
Speaker 2: not really planned to take the city of Aleppo, although
Speaker 2: there's also a video of Jiulani, the leader of HDS,
Speaker 2: saying that my brothers, one day we're going to be
Speaker 2: an Aleppo. So maybe it was planned. We don't know
Speaker 2: really for sure, but the fact is that the Syrian
Speaker 2: government defenses collapsed, and for some people in the reg
Speaker 2: that was sort of reminded of the days of Mussol
Speaker 2: when the Iraqi army they fled Mussol in twenty thirteen fourteen,
Speaker 2: and then Isis took over, although the ht has really
Speaker 2: denied that they are similar to ISIS, although they have
Speaker 2: a similar Islamish ideology. So they took the city of
Speaker 2: Aleppo in three days, and they have been trying to
Speaker 2: go up towards Hama, a city more up. So far
Speaker 2: they haven't been able to take the city. And on
Speaker 2: the other hand, you also have another group called the
Speaker 2: Seran National Army, which is groups composed of basic groups
Speaker 2: that were supported by the Turkish government. They also started
Speaker 2: to move. They also started to carry out operations against
Speaker 2: Kurdish lad Forces also known as the Cerrian Democratic Forces.
Speaker 3: Of the YPG.
Speaker 2: And also they started to do operations against the Syrian
Speaker 2: government in above Albab and also in northern Aleppo. And
Speaker 2: they took also several towns in northern Aleppo. And also they.
Speaker 3: Advanced and I think their main reach of that.
Speaker 2: So while the HDS is primarily mostly fighting against the
Speaker 2: Syrian government, I think the Serian National Army, because it's
Speaker 2: back by Turkey, they also have an interest to undermine
Speaker 2: the Syrian Democratic Forces because Turkey in the past they
Speaker 2: have said they don't want to have a second Kurdish
Speaker 2: autonomous region in the region, because you have already won
Speaker 2: in Iraq, which was became recognized after the fall of
Speaker 2: the damp, So you have a Kurdistan region in Iraq,
Speaker 2: and Turkey was sort of afraid to have a second
Speaker 2: Kurdistan region in Syria, especially because it's created by a
Speaker 2: group which has ideological.
Speaker 3: Affiliation with the pik Ak with.
Speaker 2: They followed the idology of the imprisoned leader of the
Speaker 2: pik A k Abdulachalan, which Turkey sees is.
Speaker 3: A terrorist organization.
Speaker 2: So it's very complex, which we always keep saying about Syria,
Speaker 2: but you basically have two different operations. You have the
Speaker 2: Turkish back groups that are trying to stop the Kurts
Speaker 2: from linking up with Aleppo, and then you have the HDS,
Speaker 2: the Islamist groups that are trying to go up and
Speaker 2: they already took Aleapo and they also took many areas
Speaker 2: in the countryside of Hama, and actually they now control
Speaker 2: all of province. So in the past the certain government
Speaker 2: they control some parts of lip but now they control
Speaker 2: the it's as they control all of Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I think if we start by looking, I think
Speaker 1: most people who listen to this will be familiar with
Speaker 1: the SDF, with the Autonomous Administration in North East Syria,
Speaker 1: and with the ri Java Revolution, and they'll be wondering.
Speaker 1: Kind of the question I get mostly is like how
Speaker 1: does this impact that? That's what people are asking. So
Speaker 1: with that in mind, I think we should explain. Perhaps
Speaker 1: we've talked before in this show about Operation Piece Spring,
Speaker 1: Euphretty Shield and these Turkish incursions into previously SDF controlled
Speaker 1: areas and the genocide or violence that accompanied that, or
Speaker 1: ethnic cleansing, however you want to phrase it. Can you
Speaker 1: explain what's happened in the areas where they have advanced
Speaker 1: and like what that's meant for the Kurdish people who
Speaker 1: lived there or in some cases are still there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the in the northern Aleppo and Aleppo City,
Speaker 2: so you have two Kurdish neighborhoods called Ashrafiya and Chech Maksut.
Speaker 2: There are around one hundred to two hundred thousand people
Speaker 2: living there. Then you have also two small Kurdish towns
Speaker 2: called Tel Aran and Tel Hassel, which have changed hands
Speaker 2: constantly during the Serian Civil War between the YPG, the
Speaker 2: Syrian government and Iran, then by the rebels done by
Speaker 2: ISIS than by al Kaida, like it was a big messah.
Speaker 3: Then you have also you have like Kurts.
Speaker 2: That were displaced from Afrine because Turkey they carried out
Speaker 2: an operation against the YPG in twenty eighteen. So you
Speaker 2: have thousands of Kurts that left Afrine. So the statistics
Speaker 2: are a bit unclear, but at least there were around
Speaker 2: ten thousand IDPs living in camps in northern Aleppo, and
Speaker 2: you also have people living outside of the camp, so
Speaker 2: the statistics are always a bit unclear, but it's they
Speaker 2: now say that they were around ten thousand families that
Speaker 2: were displaced, so they were already displaced from Afrine before.
Speaker 2: And there's this town of Tara Aphad, which has been
Speaker 2: a strategic location in Aleppo because it was sort of
Speaker 2: like opening up the way to Aleppo City and the
Speaker 2: Kurdish back forces they took actually this town with Russian
Speaker 2: support from the Turkish back rebels, so they had like
Speaker 2: grievances about this town, but Turkey even during the Afrine
Speaker 2: operation they didn't get the green light to take this
Speaker 2: town from the Kurkish back groups. Also, the Syrian government
Speaker 2: was there by the way after dreamings, so this town
Speaker 2: always was like a focal point of contention between the
Speaker 2: Kurts and the Syrian insurgents. So what happened after HCS
Speaker 2: took Aleppo the Syrian National Army with the backing of Turkey,
Speaker 2: they moved on towards Teara Lapad. And also because in
Speaker 2: the past there was more balance in Aleppo because you
Speaker 2: have also two small towns called Mumble and Zahara.
Speaker 3: They were like prominently.
Speaker 2: Inhabited by people from the Shia religion, so there were
Speaker 2: Iranian back groups there and they were in the back
Speaker 2: of Telarafad, so they were sort of as a balance.
Speaker 3: So they sort of like the curves, were.
Speaker 2: Able to hold out in Tarapad despite like many offensive
Speaker 2: by the Turkish back groups. So what happened because of
Speaker 2: basically all the Syrian government, they were removed from Aleppo
Speaker 2: and as a result, like they were very weakend and
Speaker 2: completely isolated. I mean until now there's Kurtish forces in
Speaker 2: Astrophia and Czech Masud, but they're completely surrounded and embargoed
Speaker 2: by the HTS, which is not something new because before
Speaker 2: this conflict, this new renewed conflict in Aleppo, the Syrian
Speaker 2: government was also imposing embargoes on those two neighborhoods, not
Speaker 2: allowing food and topping electricity and bothering people at checkpoints
Speaker 2: because they had like always issues with the Kurtish led
Speaker 2: forces because they're sort of in the Syrian Civil War,
Speaker 2: they have always played sort of a third role, like
Speaker 2: they want to have their autonomy. Then you have the
Speaker 2: Shiran armed groups. They are trying to topple the Syrian government,
Speaker 2: and then you had the Syrian government trying to stop
Speaker 2: this from happening. And then yeah, the Kurtish led forces
Speaker 2: were trying to create the autonomous administration and they got
Speaker 2: some support from the US in the fight against ISIS
Speaker 2: since the Battle of Kovaniyah. So yeah, this is like
Speaker 2: the situation a lepos. So now what happened is that
Speaker 2: thea fat were in twenty sixteen, the Parabs of Telfa,
Speaker 2: they fled actually this after as the FYPG took this down.
Speaker 3: So now the Seen rebels they took this down, and.
Speaker 2: This time that the people that fled from after into
Speaker 2: these towns that they were living around four or five
Speaker 2: six IDP camps there, they were forced to flee. So
Speaker 2: the Kurdish groups they were like trying to resist the
Speaker 2: SNA advances, but they were not able to resist them
Speaker 2: because they were completely surrounded because as I mentioned, Nobel
Speaker 2: and Zaka fell, so they were like completely pinched from
Speaker 2: all sides.
Speaker 3: But before they had always like.
Speaker 2: Nobble and Zaha behind them, so they could not not
Speaker 2: be completely surrounded. But this time they were completely surrounded.
Speaker 2: They were forced to leave there or not able to
Speaker 2: continue the fight. So I think there was like a
Speaker 2: de facto deal or something, because you saw like convoys
Speaker 2: with actually with fighters with weapons and armed hunvis. They
Speaker 2: were like being escorted two checkpoints and they were allowed
Speaker 2: to cross the ward. Sabka actually a town in northeast area.
Speaker 2: And maybe most likely the US they were involved in
Speaker 2: the sort of de facto deal and Turkey, but so
Speaker 2: far the US they haven't comment on that, but most
Speaker 2: likely there was sort of a deal for the forces
Speaker 2: in Tarafa to leave with the civilians and they're now
Speaker 2: hosted in camps, in displacement camps in the town of Tabka.
Speaker 2: And then there are still Kurts living as I mentioned
Speaker 2: in Ashtraphia and Chef Masuda to big neighborhoods in Aleppo.
Speaker 2: And then you have also two small Kurdish towns around
Speaker 2: thel Hassa which are now controlled by the year National
Speaker 2: Army the Turkish back groups, so the hyattas their local administration.
Speaker 2: They offered the deal to the Kurdish fighters. They said,
Speaker 2: you can leave these two curt neighborhoods and Aleppo without
Speaker 2: any issues, and the Curs that are living there, we
Speaker 2: respect them and they can stay there.
Speaker 3: But the Kurdish fighters, they have to leave.
Speaker 2: But then there was a statement i think yesterday by
Speaker 2: the leader of the SEF, the Muslim Ubdi. He was
Speaker 2: saying like we were forced to evacuate the people because
Speaker 2: we were trying to create a corridor between these Kurtish
Speaker 2: enclaves in Aleppo with the rest of North East area,
Speaker 2: because they are like Turkish backed rebels in the certain
Speaker 2: government in between trying to trying to make a corridor.
Speaker 2: So they said this corridor was actually was broken and
Speaker 2: they were forced to evacuate. But he said that the
Speaker 2: Kurtish forces were still in Aleppo resisting. So it seems
Speaker 2: that the YPG didn't completely follow this offer of the HS.
Speaker 2: But of course we don't know if there was maybe
Speaker 2: a backdoor deal with the HTS to allow first people
Speaker 2: in northern Aleapo to leave and then maybe in a
Speaker 2: later phase that they will also leave Aleppo because they
Speaker 2: are there in a quite difficult situation.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a very difficult situation.
Speaker 2: But they're now accused by the rebels that there are
Speaker 2: position snipers in Aleppo, and then they are still a
Speaker 2: Leppo but they never left Czech Masud and Astrapia, and
Speaker 2: but I also talked to people. They're saying that civilians
Speaker 2: they were offered in Czech Masud and Astrapia to leave
Speaker 2: that area if they wanted to leave, so they were
Speaker 2: not forced to leave, that they had the option opportunity
Speaker 2: to leave that area if they wanted. But then the
Speaker 2: buses didn't show up and they didn't leave, because I mean,
Speaker 2: they need only not only evacuated Kurdish civilians from northern Lepo,
Speaker 2: but I think they also evacuated the Shia population of
Speaker 2: Dubo Zakha. There were sometimes also that they were also
Speaker 2: evacuated to north east Ayria because they don't feel safe
Speaker 2: for their lives if those rebels take those areas.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they are still there.
Speaker 2: They don't want to be captured by the rebels and
Speaker 2: used as hostages or so most likely they left with
Speaker 2: the Kurts to north east Syria and what will happen
Speaker 2: to them. They probably go to Iraq or to other
Speaker 2: areas in Syria.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you meet like in Northeast Aria, you meet sometimes
Speaker 1: like either former ratime soldiers or people who have left
Speaker 1: regime areas and like they've made their lives there. So
Speaker 1: now we have this situation right where, yeah, we have
Speaker 1: these two little islands. We'll just call them YPG for
Speaker 1: the ease of to not introduce another acronym, right of
Speaker 1: like a Kurdish armed folks in Aleppo. To complicate this further,
Speaker 1: and people will probably have seen this, I want to
Speaker 1: explain it. In the Rezor, we have a different situation, right,
Speaker 1: we have their the SDF attacking Iranian back relicious and
Speaker 1: the regime. Do you feel comfortable explaining what's going on
Speaker 1: in Darrisora where that's a different calculus.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So since former president or the incoming president Donald Trump
Speaker 2: when he pulled out troops from Syria in twenty nineteen
Speaker 2: when Turkey did an offensive against the Curbs and Talabas
Speaker 2: in the US, they left, but then there was so
Speaker 2: much criticism from both Democrats and Republicans that he was
Speaker 2: forced to come back. So until now, there are still
Speaker 2: nine hundred Jewish troops in Detozor Province and in Husska Province,
Speaker 2: which is actually not a lot because if you look
Speaker 2: to for instance, South Korea, there are thousands of troops
Speaker 2: in South Korea and in other places, so it's not
Speaker 2: very a lot. But in the US discussions it's always
Speaker 2: discussed all we have troops in Syria, but actually compared
Speaker 2: to other countries is not a very big number.
Speaker 4: Nine hundred people, no, not unto very small footprint.
Speaker 2: So they have this small footprint in Detzor and Hassaka
Speaker 2: and they basically they worked with the Kurtish led forces
Speaker 2: since the Battle of Kobani to basically defeat the Isis
Speaker 2: Kelephate because it was a threat to European security and
Speaker 2: US security and they were trying to carry out attacks
Speaker 2: in Europe, and there were many attacks in Europe and
Speaker 2: when civilians were killed.
Speaker 3: So yeah, Ani Isis fight.
Speaker 2: This is one of the reasons actually why the Kurtish
Speaker 2: led forces they were forced to go to Detozor because
Speaker 2: it was their last bastion in twenty nineteen when they
Speaker 2: defeated the territorial Caliphate of Isis. So since there you
Speaker 2: have this the SEF there and they have their own
Speaker 2: administration in the Azora and they have like local forces
Speaker 2: and Arabs that joined them in the fight against sizes.
Speaker 2: So what happened that in the last few years, in
Speaker 2: the last one or two years, there have been attempts
Speaker 2: by the Syrian government and Iranian back groups basically to
Speaker 2: recruit Arab tribes to fight against the SDF, So there
Speaker 2: have been several skirmishes and battles since that time. After
Speaker 2: also the SDF they arrested a commander of them that
Speaker 2: they thought he was like going to portrade them. So
Speaker 2: since that time, there were like several skirmishes between these
Speaker 2: milasis that are calling themselves the tribal army or something
Speaker 2: in that regard. And then you have the SCF, so
Speaker 2: you had like fights between the Iranian back groups.
Speaker 3: And the SDF.
Speaker 2: And recently with all the changes in Syria, there were
Speaker 2: a number of villages around seven six villages that were
Speaker 2: actually Russian army.
Speaker 3: Was based in those villages.
Speaker 2: It was like the line sort of dividing the US
Speaker 2: back as theF forces and the Syrian government forces. And
Speaker 2: there's also a river, but those villages they were like
Speaker 2: in front of the river, so the river is sort
Speaker 2: of naturally dividing the areas between the SDF and and
Speaker 2: the Syrian government. But there were like still a number
Speaker 2: of villages that were not on that line, and actually
Speaker 2: there were Russian troops based in that villages. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: with the whole crisis with Aleppo and the fight now
Speaker 2: between the HCS and the Syrian government in Hannah, the
Speaker 2: Russians they moved out from those villages, so those villages
Speaker 2: that actually are almost empty, there is nothing there.
Speaker 3: So during this.
Speaker 2: Situation they a s UF they just moved in those
Speaker 2: villages and there was actually not so much fighting, although
Speaker 2: on the social media I see that all there's fighting
Speaker 2: and this kind of stuff. So there was some over
Speaker 2: these like the last one or two years, they have
Speaker 2: been heavy fighting between the SDF and Reign Impact Groups,
Speaker 2: but in these villages not so much because it was
Speaker 2: just empty villages and they just took them over and
Speaker 2: there was no one there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So that leaves us with like I guess
Speaker 1: an e s getting a little bit larger in the
Speaker 1: south and the smaller in the west.
Speaker 3: Yeah, very much smaller in the west.
Speaker 2: And it's even not clear if they can keep their
Speaker 2: presence in Aleppo because I mean, Chef Marsuten Aspia is
Speaker 2: now completely surrounded by the HDS, and it seems that
Speaker 2: the HDS they have been a little bit softer with
Speaker 2: the SDF and YPG than the SNA because the SNA,
Speaker 2: I mean, they have their issues because they're also backed
Speaker 2: by the Turkish government and the Turkish government. They always
Speaker 2: said their policy is basically to stop the SDF from
Speaker 2: treating autonomous area, and they also said the SDF is
Speaker 2: linked to the PIKK, although the SDF they deny links
Speaker 2: to the PIKK, although they don't deny their idological affiliation.
Speaker 3: With the prison pick A k here. Yeah.
Speaker 2: So Turkey always said that they are feeling threatened, and
Speaker 2: they have always claimed that attacks were planned on Turkey
Speaker 2: from northeast Asyria, from Java on on on Turkey. Yeah,
Speaker 2: THEFF deny that. I think there was also there was
Speaker 2: not so a long time ago. There was also an
Speaker 2: attack in Ankara, and Turkey also claimed that it was
Speaker 2: a carry planned from British cities in Syria.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's that's like the situation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they gives Yeah, they give us a pretty good
Speaker 1: summary of the situation.
Speaker 4: I think.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about HTS a bit, because I think
Speaker 1: you're going to see one of two things. Right when
Speaker 1: we talk about the SNA and HDS, A lot of
Speaker 1: outlets will just collapse them under the same descriptor they
Speaker 1: will just say Syrian rebels, and I think people will
Speaker 1: think of the original largely secular uprising in Syria in
Speaker 1: twenty eleven, and if they have not been paying attention,
Speaker 1: they'll realize that ISIS has been and gone. But they'll think, oh,
Speaker 1: these must be the same guys. These are not the
Speaker 1: same guys, but some of them maybe the same guys
Speaker 1: who are originally part of Jiulani was originally sent there
Speaker 1: by a back daddy way back to be part of ISIS.
Speaker 1: But these are not the secular rebels who originally rose
Speaker 1: up in Syria. And so can you explain, like, HTS
Speaker 1: has this very interesting kind of legitimacy project right, like
Speaker 1: it's trying to build a pseudo state and present like
Speaker 1: a kind of gentler Jihadism. I don't know how to
Speaker 1: say it, but can you explain a little bit of
Speaker 1: this transformation of HTS and what you make of it.
Speaker 2: I mean, as you mentioned that Julani, the current leader
Speaker 2: of the HS, he was sent by at that time
Speaker 2: I think it was Al Kaida are the Islamic State
Speaker 2: of Iraq, and yeah, use area basically to establish like
Speaker 2: but at that time there was no ISIS yet I
Speaker 2: think so. So later basically he refused to budge allegiance
Speaker 2: and he basically did his own thing. He created Jabalta Nostra,
Speaker 2: which was the affiliate of al KaiA. But then he
Speaker 2: decided to basically split from al Qaeda and he announced
Speaker 2: like the links to I think at that time that
Speaker 2: leader was Zawahiri, but I'm not sure. So he basically
Speaker 2: split from al Qaeda. And you still have a split
Speaker 2: off group from al Qaeda in Itlyp. It's called h
Speaker 2: Russell Din, which they actually they had issues with. They
Speaker 2: had some problems with them. So HDS, although Isis territory
Speaker 2: was defeated twenty nineteen, the HTS or they basically with
Speaker 2: all the creates in Syria because I mean they have
Speaker 2: been fighting out for all the problems between the Serian
Speaker 2: government and different armed groups. They managed to sort of
Speaker 2: cementa crowd throw in the province of lip and they
Speaker 2: created their own little administration there. But despite that, they
Speaker 2: say that we don't have any links to al Qaeda.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're still listed by for instance, the US
Speaker 2: as a terrorist organization.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a ten million dollar bounty on Julani still, right,
Speaker 1: they just never took it away from Yeah.
Speaker 2: So I mean it seems that the US doesn't believe
Speaker 2: this moderation idea that the HS tries to show them
Speaker 2: more moderately. But my idea of the HS, it's more
Speaker 2: like a sort of a lighter, softer version of ices.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're not like ices that they're gonna broadcast
Speaker 2: people being blown up or beheaded on the film screen.
Speaker 2: It's just that they do it in the back of
Speaker 2: the screen. I mean, there's people being executed according to
Speaker 2: the Islamic Shadia a lot.
Speaker 3: There are people being imprisoned.
Speaker 2: I mean you also had protests, actually it left against
Speaker 2: Jolani that they were actually opposed to the authoritarian rule.
Speaker 2: And I think then you have separate from the sort
Speaker 2: of the Islamic Islamics, which you can actually sort of
Speaker 2: compare to the Taliban. Yes, I think that's a good comparison, Yes,
Speaker 2: to the Taliban. And also I think Taliban they have
Speaker 2: some relationhops actually the HS, and they also congratulated the
Speaker 2: HTS after they took control of Aleppo, so sort of
Speaker 2: it's like a Taliban rual, though of course Taliban is
Speaker 2: very different contacts related to Syria culture and Afghan culture,
Speaker 2: so it's different, of course, but are both yes, Islamist
Speaker 2: projects with a national project at the same time, so
Speaker 2: it's Islamist project for Syria and the Taliban have an
Speaker 2: Islamist project for Afghanistan, although you also have Pakistani Taliban
Speaker 2: et cetera.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's not.
Speaker 2: Like a transnational jihad, but you can call it like
Speaker 2: a national jihad maybe.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think that's the crucial difference, right at least for
Speaker 1: the US, like that makes them kind of more amenable
Speaker 1: than than ISIS or even Al kaider Is that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, they have this nationally contained Jahadi vision.
Speaker 3: So they don't do attacks in Europe or in the US.
Speaker 2: But of course there are several groups in ITLAB that
Speaker 2: are sort of falling under the control of HDS that
Speaker 2: are possibly could do external attacks, et cetera. And apart
Speaker 2: from that, you have the Syrian National Army. So the
Speaker 2: Syrian National Army, it's like a mix of different groups.
Speaker 2: As you mentioned in the beginning of the series Civil War,
Speaker 2: you had the Phisian Army, but then the Freezeran Army.
Speaker 2: They split in several groups. I mean some like linked
Speaker 2: to Muslim brotherhoods, some linked to Turkmen groups, other groups,
Speaker 2: secular groups, et cetera. So all these groups that were
Speaker 2: basically fighting in different provinces, they were all gathered because Turkey.
Speaker 2: They did several Turkish military did several operations in twenty
Speaker 2: sixteen in northern Syria with the main aim is to
Speaker 2: stop the YPG from linking up the Kurdish enclaves on
Speaker 2: the border with Turkey. So they did I think the
Speaker 2: first one I was Euphrad Shield. Then they had I
Speaker 2: think Operation All of Brands in Afrin in twenty.
Speaker 4: Eighteen, incredible names.
Speaker 2: Then I think the last operation account recalled was in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen when they took Telaviat and Serkania from the
Speaker 2: Kurtish Laud forces the YPGSDA. So they had these three operations.
Speaker 2: And these groups are sort of a mixed as I mentioned,
Speaker 2: a different groups with also different ideologies. Some are more
Speaker 2: Turkmen in nature, some of them are more Islamist in nature.
Speaker 2: Some of them are like sort of leftovers from secular
Speaker 2: groups that USIFI. Some of them even they in the
Speaker 2: past they received support from the US from the CIA
Speaker 2: against the Seian regimes. So some of them they receive support.
Speaker 2: And this is like a sort of umbrella of self organizations.
Speaker 2: So HDS is one group and they control also other
Speaker 2: groups in but it's one group. But the SNA there
Speaker 2: are like a lot of different groups, and they also
Speaker 2: have been fighting each other several times in areas and
Speaker 2: Turkish control.
Speaker 3: So this is very.
Speaker 2: Different and there are more sectarian in nature, let's say more.
Speaker 2: I mean, they have also been less under control than
Speaker 2: the HTS in the way that there have been a
Speaker 2: lot of kidnappings for ransom, a lot of like sexual
Speaker 2: violence against woman and rape. This is all documented by
Speaker 2: self organizations, Juan organizations. They also have child soldiers, so
Speaker 2: they have different kinds of issues, and but they have
Speaker 2: been more accused of like more sort of gang style
Speaker 2: of activity, and that's why. Also some of them they
Speaker 2: were sanctioned by the US and also some of them
Speaker 2: they have integrated like former IIS fighters in their ranks.
Speaker 2: And you also have like you have some groups that
Speaker 2: are frondos or the other are originally for instance from
Speaker 2: the area around Mato or Aza. Some of them they
Speaker 2: kid they were displaced from Gutta, so a lot of
Speaker 2: them there. Also they came because the Serian government they
Speaker 2: advanced with Russian support, and then these groups were brought
Speaker 2: by buses to the areas under Turkish control. Yeah, so
Speaker 2: these areas became a sort of like maybe it's a
Speaker 2: bad word or sort of a dumping ground for all
Speaker 2: these Syrian rebel groups that were not completely defeated but
Speaker 2: displaced by Syrian government and offenses with the Russian support.
Speaker 2: So I mean before they were an Aleppo and homes
Speaker 2: and Hamma and Damascats in all this group they were
Speaker 2: moved with buses through agreements between around Turkey, Russia and
Speaker 2: Syria to northern Syria to it and now these groups
Speaker 2: they are coming back because they were never completely defeated.
Speaker 2: I mean, they had their own administration. So the Serian
Speaker 2: National Army they fall under are the Turkish back the
Speaker 2: Cerian opposition I think they call it the Serian National
Speaker 2: Coalition or in Arabic the ital AF. So they have
Speaker 2: their own interim government administration in THEIRS on the Turkish control,
Speaker 2: and then you have the Salvation government under the Ahso
Speaker 2: the are t two different administrations. And they also doesn't
Speaker 2: mean that they agree with so, so just calling them
Speaker 2: the rebels it's a little bit like, yeah, it doesn't
Speaker 2: really doesn't fit to the reality. But of course you
Speaker 2: also have to deal with the fact that for media,
Speaker 2: if they want to explain complex situations to a general public,
Speaker 2: it's very difficult to just say, Okay, you have this acronym,
Speaker 2: and you have this acronym, and you have the White
Speaker 2: and the HS and the SNA, so people they.
Speaker 3: Will lose their interest.
Speaker 2: So that's why it always becomes sort of this black
Speaker 2: and white. So, oh, you have the Syrian insurgence and
Speaker 2: then you have the Serian government, and then it's already
Speaker 2: complex enough to also add Kurts to the mix.
Speaker 3: So they also, of course often the Turkish government.
Speaker 2: They got very angry that the media keeps calling the
Speaker 2: YPG the Curse, because oh, they don't represent the curse.
Speaker 2: But you can't say that with any group in Syria
Speaker 2: or anywhere in the world. I mean, I mean you
Speaker 2: have in Americans, you have different political parties. You have
Speaker 2: different parties in Syria, you have different parties in Turkey.
Speaker 2: So these groups don't represent all the Syrians, or all
Speaker 2: the Arabs, or all the Kurts or all the Allwais.
Speaker 2: There are always different political factions and that's what it
Speaker 2: makes so complicated in Syria because a lot of these
Speaker 2: based groups got fragmented. But actually with versus the support
Speaker 2: of Turkey, they actually united on the one umbrella, which
Speaker 2: is called the Syrian National Army, and then of course
Speaker 2: even on the Syrian government side, there's many different groups.
Speaker 2: I mean you have you have Iranian back armed groups,
Speaker 2: you have groups from Lebanon that are helping the Hezbola
Speaker 2: alban says Bola. Then you have Iraqi Iranian back groups
Speaker 2: that are supporting Syrian government. Then you have also Shias
Speaker 2: that were recruited from Afghanistan. And then also in the
Speaker 2: Syrian government security structure, I mean, in the past there
Speaker 2: was no room for malicious but they have, for instance,
Speaker 2: the NDF, which is sort of like a Syrian government
Speaker 2: backed militia which even some times part with the Syrian
Speaker 2: government itself when they tried to become become more too
Speaker 2: much powerful, sort of like what you haven't Wagner in
Speaker 2: Russia that we try to challenge the Russian government and
Speaker 2: then they got third bailed. So it's like even with
Speaker 2: a certain sort of the forces back in the Cerian army,
Speaker 2: it's not like so simple. It's also not you have
Speaker 2: just a Serian army that's it. You have also different
Speaker 2: kinds of militia, some supported by Iran, some supported by Russia,
Speaker 2: that are backing the Serian government.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone wants. I think Ukraine has really reinforced this.
Speaker 1: They want war to be like colors on a map
Speaker 1: and a front line, and the front line moves and
Speaker 1: that's you know, and that's just not how like oftentimes
Speaker 1: there's little lines on a map will be in reality,
Speaker 1: it's people driving around and pick up trucks with dishcas
Speaker 1: in the back, wondering where the other guys are and
Speaker 1: what's going on. You know. It's not like Ukraine, where
Speaker 1: you have trenches and people firing each other from trench
Speaker 1: lines to gradually move. And as much as it would
Speaker 1: be easy to have modelists, we just don't.
Speaker 4: In Syria.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, sorry, it's different because if it's more
Speaker 2: there are more religious and ethnic groups done in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: I mean Ucrime is you have the the Ukrainians and
Speaker 2: the Russians, and I mean you also have people speaking
Speaker 2: Russian in other areas of Ukraine. But it's where it's
Speaker 2: much more complex in in in Syria. Althoio obviously also
Speaker 2: have different groups fighting in Ukraine, but in Syria it's
Speaker 2: a bit more complex and it's difficult for the media
Speaker 2: to get a grip on that without like you know,
Speaker 2: like trying to also explain to a normal reader of
Speaker 2: what is going on in Syria.
Speaker 3: But also in.
Speaker 2: General you have all this international media that are cutting
Speaker 2: down costs and they're closing there for and bureaus. So
Speaker 2: also I mean the money for like extensive reporting in
Speaker 2: Syria is also getting less or in general in internationally speaking, yes,
Speaker 2: and then you have another problem is that you have
Speaker 2: the problem of access in Syria. So if you are
Speaker 2: wanted to go to the same government area is very
Speaker 2: difficult because if you have reported in Syrian rebel areas,
Speaker 2: the same government is not going to give you a visa.
Speaker 2: You have to be like very pro Serian government if
Speaker 2: you go to the areas under rebel control to be honest, like,
Speaker 2: it's very difficult for any journalists to go to HDS
Speaker 2: areas or the Eran National Army area.
Speaker 3: So even if a journalist wants.
Speaker 2: To report positively about the rebels, it's very difficult. Then
Speaker 2: they have like a press adcutation in Turkey and they
Speaker 2: have to cross the boarders very complicated, so there's barely
Speaker 2: in very rare cases journalists going into northwest Aria and
Speaker 2: then with the Kurdish controlled areas, if you can call
Speaker 2: them like that, like Northeast area, it's a bit easier.
Speaker 2: I mean, there are people flying to Iraqi, Curtistan and
Speaker 2: then they can get like a permission from the Kurdish authorities.
Speaker 2: They're in Iraqi, Curtistan and then they can cross the border.
Speaker 3: So it's a bit easier.
Speaker 2: But the number of journals going there is very limited,
Speaker 2: and most of the interests actually of the Western media
Speaker 2: was not so much about the cern conflict. It was
Speaker 2: more about this Western ISIS woman and ISIS fighters that
Speaker 2: were jailed or held in camps in Northeast area. So
Speaker 2: most of the focus of Western media was most of
Speaker 2: the time, okay, what's happening in the whole camp, because
Speaker 2: you have thousands of ISIS families there or in verses
Speaker 2: in the prison. So, I mean, the American journals were
Speaker 2: interested in US DOAH fighters, and the Dutch were interested
Speaker 2: in Dutch ISIS families are fighters, and the same for
Speaker 2: many other countries.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the British media is terrible for that. They'll go
Speaker 1: to Northeast Syria and then talk about Northeast Syria and
Speaker 1: this our whole just exists as kind of a bubble
Speaker 1: outside of context in that reporting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they just talk about Shamima Begoon and she became
Speaker 2: sort of a celebrity in the UK. Yeah, although I
Speaker 2: think even on that actress nowadays it's like very limited
Speaker 2: because a lot of these zero countries in the UK,
Speaker 2: they have their own domestic issues. So also in general,
Speaker 2: the interesting in Syria has gone down a lot, and
Speaker 2: I think also with this current conflict and Aleppo, it
Speaker 2: will get some intention in the media for a few days,
Speaker 2: but at some point it's.
Speaker 4: Gonna go down again, yes, of course, and.
Speaker 2: Maybe there will be conflicts and other parts of the
Speaker 2: world again, So I think at some point also this
Speaker 2: media attention, the media attention for Sir already was like
Speaker 2: very low unless it's gonna affect Europe in a large
Speaker 2: extent because it could also create new waves of refugees
Speaker 2: trying to go to Europe. Yeah, there's many people that
Speaker 2: were displaced.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 2: It was a very nice post on X by one
Speaker 2: Journeys from I think a Saudi outlet, and he was
Speaker 2: saying it's very sad to see. He was basically saying
Speaker 2: like at any moment, our people can be displaced at
Speaker 2: any time, or can.
Speaker 3: Be displaced again.
Speaker 2: So that's like sort of the life of Syrians that
Speaker 2: live in these different like front lines, like anytime they
Speaker 2: can displace, like the people are Traffee, they were displaced
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen and now twenty twenty four they were
Speaker 2: displaced again. And then you have people displaced by the
Speaker 2: Syrian government living in the houses of kurts in Afrine
Speaker 2: and they're also victims of this conflict. So yeah, so
Speaker 2: it's a very complicated situation, people being displaced, moving in
Speaker 2: the houses of displaced, and the displace living in other
Speaker 2: people houses that are also displaced. So it's like a
Speaker 2: very cynical and sad situation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a very very difficult one for civilians. And certainly,
Speaker 1: like with the changing government in the US, I mean,
Speaker 1: it seems unlikely that we will be reaching out to
Speaker 1: help those those displaced civilians in the in the near future.
Speaker 1: And certainly we've seen a lot of Kurdish people who
Speaker 1: have been displaced either by Turkish aggression or who there's
Speaker 1: a whole other situation with the Kurdish areas in Turkey
Speaker 1: at the moment and their elections and such which we
Speaker 1: don't have time to go into. But many of them
Speaker 1: have come to the US and I've interviewed lots of
Speaker 1: them for this show, so we've I think people will
Speaker 1: be familiar with that, right, I mean, I think that's
Speaker 1: probably about all we have time for.
Speaker 4: But I wanted to offer you a chance.
Speaker 1: You have very good tweets, you have a very good
Speaker 1: understanding of the whole situation. You have your articles do
Speaker 1: an excellent job of making it understandable. So where can
Speaker 1: people find your writing and follow you?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: I mean, I you can find my tweets on my
Speaker 2: personal Twitter page which is my name is blotting me
Speaker 2: for Blberg at x Vivan Wrockenberg. And also I write
Speaker 2: for different outlets and think tanks like First As, I
Speaker 2: write for Middle Least im from the Washington Institute. Also
Speaker 2: I've been writing some pieces for Carnegie. So yeah, I've
Speaker 2: mean if we're writing for several places on the current situation. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and sometimes Side to Interview, Side talked on BBC a
Speaker 2: few times on the situation and Aduchavella. So you can
Speaker 2: find my work on my Twitter profile. Always post my
Speaker 2: articles there and yeah.
Speaker 4: Yep, that's great.
Speaker 1: Is there anything else you'd like to maybe suggest that
Speaker 1: people follow. I think it could be really easy to
Speaker 1: get a lot of propaganda when it comes to two, sirius,
Speaker 1: So I think you'd suggest that people kind of get
Speaker 1: their news from.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think in general x is still
Speaker 2: like a good platform. It has been from the beginning
Speaker 2: of the series Civil War, although of course you have
Speaker 2: different accounts with different views supporting different facts. So it's
Speaker 2: always good to verify any videos posted, although it's like
Speaker 2: more difficult to very five videos than the pictures. But
Speaker 2: it's always good to verify locations and the background of
Speaker 2: people that are posting stuff. And then also I think
Speaker 2: it's very interesting and good to follow the maps of
Speaker 2: the Serian Civil War because you have several places where
Speaker 2: they published maps of the civil war, so it's easier
Speaker 2: to follow it on the map than buy tweets or
Speaker 2: posts on eggs. But I think in general, I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean, there are still like many international media that
Speaker 2: are are trying to do reporting on Syria, but I
Speaker 2: think in general what I've seen it's becoming more limited,
Speaker 2: and it's mostly based on for instance, the Serum Observatory
Speaker 2: for Human Rights. Yes, so the same Observatory for Human Rights.
Speaker 2: It's a good source. They have a page in English
Speaker 2: and Arabic, although sometimes they are the English pages are
Speaker 2: a bit difficult to follow for people if they don't
Speaker 2: know the background of the conflict because it's more written
Speaker 2: for locals.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And then also you have, for instance, there's there's a
Speaker 2: civil side organization that focus on human rights abuses.
Speaker 3: I think it's called Seriance for Justice.
Speaker 2: They are very good reports on the situation, but it's
Speaker 2: a bit slow because it's not like twenty four hours.
Speaker 2: I mean it's like they're doing investigative reports on abuses
Speaker 2: by all sides of the.
Speaker 3: Ceriin civil conflict.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Joheral, I think it is very grud and
Speaker 2: also like telegram, I mean a lot of these different
Speaker 2: groups they have telegram channels where they post the latest updates,
Speaker 2: but of course all of them are quite biased, but
Speaker 2: bias you will get anyway in such a conflict as
Speaker 2: in over the war.
Speaker 1: So yeah, everyone's biased to a degree. You will see
Speaker 1: dead people a lot if if you go following telegram
Speaker 1: channels to the Cerian Civil war. So if that's not
Speaker 1: something you'd like to see, that's probably not platform to
Speaker 1: be on Big Death.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 1: I know it's late with you, and we'll let you
Speaker 1: get to sleep, and we do appreciate you joining us,
Speaker 1: and hopefully people will follow you on Twitter and and
Speaker 1: get good information about what's happening.
Speaker 3: You're welcome.
Speaker 5: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
Speaker 5: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
Speaker 5: foolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,
Speaker 5: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can
Speaker 5: now find sources for It could Happen Here, listed directly
Speaker 5: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.