1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: Hey, welcome to Big Fish Small Pod. I'm Andrew Wardal. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 2: Today is August nineteenth, Friday, Marlins tonight facing the Dodgers 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: in LA. Ahead of the game, Fish Stripes Live will 4 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 2: get you some pregame coverage that like last minute show 5 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 2: to get you ready for the ten ten start time 6 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: of the Marlins at Dodgers tonight. For the podcast today, 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: I have a bit of a puzzle for you. Really, 8 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: I'd certainly like not a take really at this point 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: that the Marlins need to make some changes, and it's 10 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: definitely not a take that fans are interested in the 11 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: formulation of those changes. So I've made a bit of 12 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 2: a game or like puzzle really and if you want 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: to get out, you're like no tap word, document paper, 14 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 2: hopefully pencil. 15 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. Like I'll give you some. 16 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 2: Background to like take you through the Marlins financial situation 17 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 2: as best we understand it, then get you in line 18 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: with upcoming salary obligations or considerations for twenty twenty three. 19 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 2: And yeah, we'll kind of have at it and see 20 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 2: what we can kind of come to with regards to 21 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 2: a Marlins off season plan. Certainly not like the full 22 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 2: construction of it, but just like a start. Yeah, we'll 23 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 2: get there, but first, like some background, really, so the 24 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 2: best we can tell of like the Marlins like financial 25 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: situation and parallel obligations, pulling really heavily from like roster 26 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 2: resource over on fangrafts for this information. 27 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: Cott's Baseball Contracts. 28 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: Lines out a few like the gaps and does offer 29 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 2: some more contact info and like plain text on the 30 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: Marlins organization as a whole, like they're like valuation of 31 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 2: the Bruce Sherman Ownership Group group led taken directly from them, 32 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 2: a group led by a private capital management founder, Bruce 33 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 2: Sherman Derek Jeter, bought the Marlins in October twenty seventeen 34 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: for one point two billion, eight hundred million in cash 35 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 2: four hundred million in assumed or restructured debt. But what 36 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 2: I want you to know is that like that like 37 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 2: assumed and like restructured debt, that could is really nebulous. 38 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: That could be anything. 39 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 2: That could be like David Sampson's student loans, and that 40 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 2: could also be just like financial costs, like the team 41 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 2: could have taken out some loans to meet operating needs. 42 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 2: We don't know a lot about the business side of 43 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 2: the Marlins, so in the puzzle. We can't assume any 44 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 2: increase in payroll by all accounts, though the pockets of 45 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 2: this Marlins team is a bit deeper than like Jeffrey 46 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 2: Lauria's situation. Definitely good to note that Forbes valued the 47 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: Marlins at nine hundred and ninety million in this earlier 48 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 2: this year, making no measure for inflation. That's about a 49 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: seventeen point five percent loss in value compared to the 50 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 2: purchase price, and without really knowing whether or not this 51 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 2: appraisal was done before Derek Jeter left with his four 52 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 2: percent or about forty million dollars that was invested into 53 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 2: the Marlins. Maybe now Forbes with estimate about like a 54 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 2: nine hundred and fifty million dollar. 55 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: Valuation for the Marlins. 56 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: Anyhow, we know that like that value basis is like 57 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 2: pretty well there we've seen like the TV contracts, that 58 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 2: naming rates all going towards like that value of the team, 59 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 2: that like profit sort of construction. Really we don't know 60 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 2: like the operation budgets for the team. We don't know 61 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 2: what they're spending and what they're taking on in a 62 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: given year, so it's hard to say like whether or 63 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: not they're just skimming by or if they're sitting on 64 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 2: like like a war chest of funds ready to throw 65 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 2: out the free agents. They also might just be taking 66 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 2: a loss. We just don't know, So yeah, what can 67 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: we say for certain? And like this is like the 68 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 2: start of the puzzle release, like get get ready to 69 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 2: take note. You're like like your big payroll commitments for 70 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, Avi Garcia's twelve million porge Solaire is 71 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 2: about fifteen million. He has an option that like almost 72 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 2: certainly will be exercised. 73 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: On his part. 74 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 2: So fifteen million for Solaire, five million for Miguel Rojas, 75 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 2: three point five for Richard Bleier. I'm excluding Sandy from 76 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 2: this puzzle. He can't be moved. Then we have mutual options. 77 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 2: Joey Wendell Hayesu's Agular a pretty minimal buyouts for both. 78 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 2: Wendel is six point three million. If the option is 79 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 2: exercised by both sides, seemingly the team would be the 80 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 2: side that would maybe decline, So that's this is a 81 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 2: fair game for the puzzle. Hazus Agular eight million dollars 82 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 2: is like my estimate for what his salary would be 83 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three. On that mutual option that is 84 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 2: not exactly known nebulous number, but like a two hundred 85 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 2: thousand buyout for Hazus Agular, again another example of the 86 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 2: team seemingly acting as decision maker for these deals. Then 87 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: we're onto like the arbitration salaries, and these are estimates. 88 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: This is my educated guests really to qualify. 89 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: I follow this stuff like year to year, and I'm 90 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 2: not gonna claim that these are gonna be like the 91 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 2: accurate estimates, but I think it's like ballpark, I think 92 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 2: will be within like a few million of this for 93 00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 2: the whole group. So for Brian Anderson seven million, Floro 94 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 2: four million, Garrett Cooper five million, Pablo Lopez seven million, 95 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 2: Jacob Stallin's four million, Eliezer two million, Tanner Scott two million, 96 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 2: John Birdie four million, Sussler one and a half million, 97 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 2: so all those numbers, be sure to write those down, 98 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 2: assuming no increase in payroll year to year, and adding 99 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 2: in what the Marlins oh in their other payments currently 100 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 2: to like Jean Carlos Stanton's contract with the Yankees with 101 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: their forty man players in the minor leagues with player 102 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 2: benefits benefits paid out, which like is like sixteen point 103 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: five million, So just like keep that in mind as 104 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,799 Speaker 2: like part of where this like major cost is coming from. 105 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 2: Then we have the contribution to the pre arbitration bonus 106 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 2: pool and all that'll take you to like a sixty 107 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 2: eight million dollar basis for the Marlins before adding in 108 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 2: these arbitration salaries, which if we add the about twelve 109 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 2: million O to your like pre arm players, I think, 110 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 2: like jj Bleday, all that adds up to about eighty million. 111 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: And that's again before this arbitration total. 112 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 2: The Marlins, as listed by roster Real Source, currently have 113 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 2: about one hundred and twelve million dedicated to these expenses, 114 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 2: including their like arbitration players, giving like with these estimates 115 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: about thirty two million dollars for you to use it 116 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 2: your discretion to decide whether or not you want to 117 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 2: pick up these options with Wyndle and Aguilar, and whether 118 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 2: or not you want to offer arbitration to these arbitration 119 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 2: eligible players. There, I do want to emphasize to you, 120 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 2: like how Miami might have more money to spend than 121 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 2: I'm allowing in this puzzle. They could literally just have 122 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 2: more money dedicated to payroll next year. They also might 123 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 2: have like some rolled over like savings of like a 124 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 2: dedicated budget. For example, the Marlins didn't build a complex 125 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 2: and Dominican Republic this year, so maybe there's some past 126 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 2: costs available this year. 127 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: Really, it's just this like nebulous situation. 128 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: We won't know what we're looking at until we know 129 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: what we're looking at, and then and then even in 130 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 2: this offseason, it could come down to whether or not 131 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 2: the Marlins are like the winning team in a deal 132 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 2: for like Trey Turner or whatever it is they end 133 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 2: up doing. They could potentially go out for some thirty 134 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 2: million dollars a year free agent and then lose that 135 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 2: race and then not reallocate those funds elsewhere. So it's 136 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 2: like this sticky mess and hard to really articulate. So 137 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,439 Speaker 2: that's why, like I want you to like kind of 138 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 2: zoom in this puzzle, stay where we are right here, 139 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 2: but like think ahead, Like the qualifying offer this year 140 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 2: is going to be around nineteen million dollars, and looking 141 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 2: into that might be like the next step to get 142 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 2: ahead of where we are right now. But I think 143 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 2: the point is that we can all agree that the 144 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 2: Marlins need more high end major league Baseball ready talent, 145 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 2: and we know that that has a cost oftentimes more 146 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 2: than the nineteen million dollars that would also cost you 147 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 2: a high round draft pick, and you need to hold 148 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 2: on to those high end draft picks, and you need 149 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 2: to get those players. So like, let's say you need 150 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 2: between like twenty six and thirty two million dollars to 151 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: get like a top tier player, or something kind of 152 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 2: below that, like sixteen million to nineteen million to get 153 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,959 Speaker 2: a player that would theoretically turn down a qualifying offer 154 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: or not be eligible for a qualifying offer, someone like 155 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: Justin Turner, who's already accepted one in his career and 156 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 2: been offered one actually in his career, is not eligible 157 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 2: for another one. So keep that in mind. Maybe like 158 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 2: sixteen million might get you a high end free agent, 159 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 2: like a starting caliber player, or like something like twenty 160 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 2: six thirty might get you well beyond that, like a 161 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: real upgrade to any roster. If you like me, working 162 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 2: through this puzzle, I find myself with like five million 163 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 2: dollars left to spend and a little bit of like 164 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 2: some holes to fill. I think it's a really tough puzzle. 165 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: I think there's like a real catch twenty two happening 166 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 2: here with where the Marlins are to me, that points 167 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 2: to like a need for additional investment from ownership towards 168 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 2: like the on field product in Miami. Really, it seems 169 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 2: like spending the amount of money we have allocated now 170 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 2: to the roster wouldn't really allow the Marlins to upgrade 171 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 2: the team, but more allow them to just go through 172 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 2: to the next year, certainly barring any creativity and ability 173 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 2: to like move current guaranteed contracts or find value for 174 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 2: these arbitration eligible players. So, yeah, who would you cut 175 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 2: to get the open payroll space that you need? Really, 176 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 2: that's more the puzzle. Maybe put an asterisk, but who 177 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 2: you think has trade value beyond what they'll be owed 178 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 2: by a team, and then maybe like put together a 179 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 2: depth chart with that. See what you come to see 180 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 2: what we're looking at for this Marlin's twenty twenty three season. 181 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 2: Ahead of this like very alive and late twenty twenty 182 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: three matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers in La ten 183 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 2: ten is the start again. Fish Drives Live will be 184 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 2: with you pre game definitely, we're talking about pencil for 185 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 2: the puzzle. The season is alive and fluid, and even 186 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 2: the estimates I've made tonight will be wrong and will 187 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 2: seem wrong by the end of the year. 188 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: So go at it, stay at it. I'll be back 189 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: with you next Wednesday and again ten ten start tonight