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Speaker 2: We're ten days away from a government shutdown. While Senators
Speaker 2: are aimy for a bypartisan deal that could package ade
Speaker 2: for Israel and Ukraine with funding to keep the government operating,
Speaker 2: House Republicans seem to be exploring multiple competing options to
Speaker 2: avert a shutdown. Jack, I know you cover this minute
Speaker 2: by minute. It seems like we've been here before. Is
Speaker 2: this any different?
Speaker 3: This is different? At least we can say that it
Speaker 3: got pretty nasty at the end of September and led
Speaker 3: to the ouster of the speaker at the time, Kevin McCarthy.
Speaker 3: So at the very least, I think it's different because
Speaker 3: he's gone, we have a new speaker. There does seem
Speaker 3: to be some understanding among House Republicans that you need
Speaker 3: to give a new speaker a runway. So I haven't
Speaker 3: heard too much discussion about people threatening a shutdown. But yeah,
Speaker 3: they killed a lot of time and now we're ten
Speaker 3: days out and they're talking about more or less an
Speaker 3: immigration reform being tacked on to this. So many different
Speaker 3: challenges they face, and I'm looking forward to getting the
Speaker 3: congressman point of view on this because they don't have
Speaker 3: very much time.
Speaker 2: At all Before we go to the Congressman, Let's listen
Speaker 2: to what Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, had to say.
Speaker 4: With regard to the funding of the government. We're working
Speaker 4: earnestly on that. We certainly want to avoid a government
Speaker 4: shut down. It's a dangerous time around the world right now.
Speaker 4: We recognize that and we're doing our job. So we
Speaker 4: had a very i would call it a refreshing, constructive
Speaker 4: family conversation in our House Republican Conference meeting for an
Speaker 4: hour ago, very deliberate, positive discussions about the many options
Speaker 4: that are on the table, and we'll be revealing what
Speaker 4: our plan is in short order.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is Congressman Steve Wollmack, the Republican representing
Speaker 2: the third District of Arkansas. Thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 5: Congressman Hey good afnon June Good to be with you
Speaker 5: and Jack both.
Speaker 2: The Senate is discussing a legislative package I just mentioned
Speaker 2: that would avoid a shutdown and include measures for Ukraine, Israel,
Speaker 2: and the US Mexico border. Do you think that kind
Speaker 2: of wide ranging bill can come together by next Friday
Speaker 2: or we'll have to be narrowed?
Speaker 5: Well, you know, you would like to think that cooler
Speaker 5: heads will prevail, and we have an interest in making
Speaker 5: sure that we don't lapse in appropriations and force a
Speaker 5: government shutdown. You know, I try to be optimistic about
Speaker 5: the whole thing. Let's be honest. There are ten days
Speaker 5: left before that magical date of November the seventeenth, which,
Speaker 5: in political speak is a heck of a long time. Remember,
Speaker 5: we don't do anything till the last minute around here,
Speaker 5: which frustrates the dickens out of me. I will tell you,
Speaker 5: when you are facing an issue, rational people try to
Speaker 5: deal with the options on the front end and settle
Speaker 5: it all before it becomes a matter of urgency, because
Speaker 5: I do believe you make some of your biggest mistakes
Speaker 5: in life when you're either heavily emotional or in a
Speaker 5: hurry or running out of time. And that's precisely where
Speaker 5: we are. But we have in the House, and I
Speaker 5: can only speak to the House. I try not to
Speaker 5: render opinions about the Senate because it's a different animal
Speaker 5: over there. But in the House, we have seven of
Speaker 5: the twelve appropriation bills that are done on an annual
Speaker 5: basis all the way through the House we have turned
Speaker 5: down ag so that one still hangs out there. We
Speaker 5: have Transportation on the floor today, we have my bill,
Speaker 5: a financial services bill on the floor tomorrow and Thursday,
Speaker 5: hoping to get final passage on both of those that
Speaker 5: would put our count up to nine. And we have
Speaker 5: two hanging out there that haven't even made it through
Speaker 5: the full committee yet, and that's Commerce, Justice, Science read FVII,
Speaker 5: and also the Labor, Health and Human Services and Education piece,
Speaker 5: and that one becomes problematic as well because of the
Speaker 5: deep cuts to labor.
Speaker 6: Ah.
Speaker 5: So that's precisely where we are right now, and it
Speaker 5: is obvious to me that we are looking down the
Speaker 5: barrel of a continuing resolution next weekend in order to
Speaker 5: prevent a lapse in appropriations. Now, a lot of people think,
Speaker 5: well that maybe there's time left for Congress to be
Speaker 5: able to get all this work done, match it up
Speaker 5: with the Senate, and get it signed in the law. Well,
Speaker 5: that's just simply a fool's era. That's futile, it's not
Speaker 5: going to happen, So we're going to need a CR.
Speaker 5: So what Mike Johnson talked about in conference today, the
Speaker 5: different options out there, time is not on our side.
Speaker 5: It's not our friend right now. And frankly, I think
Speaker 5: it's going to require us to be able to last
Speaker 5: past some sort of a clean continuing resolution for a
Speaker 5: date certain once we get closer to the end of
Speaker 5: next week.
Speaker 3: And Congressman, when you say that seems like it's necessary.
Speaker 3: One is there support broadly among House Republicans for a
Speaker 3: clean CR? And two what does that mean for the
Speaker 3: bigger questions about how the US responds to requests for aid,
Speaker 3: especially I'm thinking of Ukraine. Israel might be more bipartisan.
Speaker 3: But what does that mean if you follow through on
Speaker 3: a clean CR.
Speaker 5: Well, I think we have to look at this and
Speaker 5: through each different lens. For example, we do have a
Speaker 5: need right now to be able to answer to the
Speaker 5: requests and the need for us to participate in some
Speaker 5: of the other larger issues that are happening abroad. But
Speaker 5: let's set that aside for a minute, because appropriators right
Speaker 5: now are singularly focused on trying to get their work
Speaker 5: finished so that we can have full year appropriations for
Speaker 5: the remainder of this fiscal year. And we're already over
Speaker 5: a month into the fiscal year, so we're talking about,
Speaker 5: you know, the better part of eleven months right now.
Speaker 5: So that's what that's I think that's how we need
Speaker 5: to look at it. What can we do to take
Speaker 5: the issues about funding the US government that's discretionary spending.
Speaker 5: How can we take that off the table and solve
Speaker 5: for that issue right now and then turn our attention
Speaker 5: back to the supplemental bill that the Biden administration wants,
Speaker 5: and because it's got mixed reviews. I mean, there are
Speaker 5: members of our caucus on the right in the House
Speaker 5: that certainly do not want to do anything in Ukraine,
Speaker 5: and of course there are those that do believe that
Speaker 5: we have a vested interest in what's going on in
Speaker 5: Eastern Europe. But I do think you have to separate
Speaker 5: the two, and I think we need to move straight
Speaker 5: ahead with as clean as we are as we possibly
Speaker 5: can to get the government funded beyond the seventeenth day
Speaker 5: of November to eight dates. Certain now we can argue
Speaker 5: about whether that should be before Christmas, or whether that
Speaker 5: should be mid January or whenever let's just make let's
Speaker 5: just take the idea that the federal government is going
Speaker 5: to enter a partial shutdown ahead of the holiday season.
Speaker 5: Let's just get that issue off the table and then
Speaker 5: turn our attention to some of the other issues of
Speaker 5: the day.
Speaker 2: So, what does a proposal for a stop gap funding
Speaker 2: bill with two different deadlines December seventh and January nineteenth,
Speaker 2: what is your take on that?
Speaker 5: Look, I've tried to keep an open mind and listen
Speaker 5: to other alternatives, but at the end of the day, Look,
Speaker 5: I'm an appropriator. The way this is supposed to work,
Speaker 5: we're supposed to do budgets earlier in the year. We're
Speaker 5: supposed to kick out top line numbers. We call those
Speaker 5: three two A numbers. That's Washington speak for the top
Speaker 5: line number for discretionary spending. Then the appropriator subdivide that
Speaker 5: money twelve ways, and we fund defense, and we fund transportation,
Speaker 5: and we fund cancer research and all that other kind
Speaker 5: of stuff, and we carve out what we call the
Speaker 5: three O two b's, and that's the amount of money
Speaker 5: for each of the various twelve titles. That's the way
Speaker 5: this is supposed to work. It's not supposed to be
Speaker 5: done in October or November. It is supposed to be
Speaker 5: done in June and July, so that when we get
Speaker 5: to October first, the agencies know exactly what their budget is.
Speaker 5: I would say to any competent, rational business person listening
Speaker 5: to this interview right now, do not try this at home.
Speaker 5: This is not the method that you should be using
Speaker 5: in order to fund your business, because it will meet
Speaker 5: with certain failure. But that's the way the federal government operates,
Speaker 5: and without guardrails, without any incentives, carrots, sticks, or otherwise.
Speaker 5: To be able to hold Congress accountable right now for
Speaker 5: the way it handles budgets and appropriations. Without those I'm
Speaker 5: afraid we're condemned to this, this groundhog day scenario of
Speaker 5: continuing resolutions, omnibus packages, threats of a government shut down,
Speaker 5: anything other than regular order.
Speaker 3: So Congressman, given that that frustrated answer, with the state
Speaker 3: of how Congress doesn't always do its job, I have
Speaker 3: to ask, when you hear about this laddered cr with
Speaker 3: two different deadlines, is the House Republican conference or are
Speaker 3: the members who bring this up grasping for straws now
Speaker 3: for some sort of creative idea, or what should we
Speaker 3: make of that proposal.
Speaker 5: Well, I think what you're finding is they're looking for
Speaker 5: anything that might work. I am not sold on the
Speaker 5: idea of a laddered CR because I don't think we
Speaker 5: need to get into the business of having multiple deadlines,
Speaker 5: because Congress has a hard time walking and chewing gum
Speaker 5: at the same time, meeting various deadlines for various titles.
Speaker 5: And oh, by the way, what do you put in
Speaker 5: that first omnis this package? You know, what are the funding,
Speaker 5: what are the agencies that you first one? What's going
Speaker 5: to be in the second one? Is one supposed to
Speaker 5: be real easy? Is the second one that you could
Speaker 5: get bogged down and trying to figure out what you
Speaker 5: do next? And look, I think what we need to
Speaker 5: do is just finish our work on appropriations. And like
Speaker 5: I say, we've got seven of our twelve bills through
Speaker 5: the full House ready to go to conference with the Senate.
Speaker 5: I said, I had dinner last night with Susan Collins,
Speaker 5: you know, the ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Speaker 5: She and I talked about the way forward over on
Speaker 5: the Senate side. I think we just need to buy
Speaker 5: some more time and then finish our work house and Senate,
Speaker 5: get them to conference, and then come back with a
Speaker 5: conference report that could be appealing and get approval from
Speaker 5: both chambers of Congress and be signed in the law.
Speaker 5: That is the way this thing was designed to work,
Speaker 5: and I don't see any other method that's going to
Speaker 5: trump that one. If you will, as as a way forward, do.
Speaker 2: The other members of your conference feel the same way
Speaker 2: about negotiating with the Senate to move forward?
Speaker 5: I think if you're talking to appropriators, yes, If you're
Speaker 5: talking to the House Freedom Caucus, probably not so.
Speaker 1: Yes.
Speaker 5: And there are a lot of people caught in the
Speaker 5: middle because this, you know, basically becomes, you know, an
Speaker 5: issue that gets played out in the general public, and
Speaker 5: people have very strong feelings about it, and they start
Speaker 5: calling their member offices. Do this, don't do that. And look,
Speaker 5: at the end of the day, Congress just needs to
Speaker 5: a job. This is what we're This is the most
Speaker 5: fundamental of our duty funding the government. It should not
Speaker 5: be this difficult. There is a process that our framers
Speaker 5: established for how we should operate. We have violated that process,
Speaker 5: and we find ourselves here at the eleventh hour trying
Speaker 5: to figure out what to do when we've got so
Speaker 5: many different mixed opinions, but I do agree with what
Speaker 5: was said early in the interview when you established that
Speaker 5: Mike Johnson is a brand new Speaker of the House
Speaker 5: and he does bring to the table a bit of
Speaker 5: patients with all sides. You know, he's still on his
Speaker 5: honeymoon period, and I think the conference really wants to
Speaker 5: give Mike a victory, and so maybe handing him a
Speaker 5: victory on funding the government on the seventeenth of November,
Speaker 5: after we just went through how many three and a
Speaker 5: half weeks of basically inaction in the House while the
Speaker 5: clock was ticking, I think there is a I think
Speaker 5: there's a groundswell of support. How much so don't know,
Speaker 5: but I think there is support for giving Mike some
Speaker 5: leeway and so whatever he does come up with in
Speaker 5: terms of a solution before the seventeenth of November, I
Speaker 5: think he has a reasonable chance of making that, making
Speaker 5: getting that across the finish line.
Speaker 3: And Congressman, we only have a minute or so left.
Speaker 3: But I do want to ask specifically about your Appropriations Bill,
Speaker 3: the Financial Services Bill, especially because I know pulling back
Speaker 3: old IRS funds that were included in the Inflation Reduction
Speaker 3: Act seems to be a big priority for House Republicans.
Speaker 3: I'm curious how you see it when you eventually have
Speaker 3: to compromise with the Senate on a funding package. Is
Speaker 3: the irs recisions a red line for Republicans or how
Speaker 3: high a priority will that be to.
Speaker 5: Be determined, But you're right, we use some of the
Speaker 5: money from the Inflation Reduction Act as a pay for,
Speaker 5: if you will, a recision like that in order to
Speaker 5: be able to soften the blow on some of the
Speaker 5: cuts that we're taking. That I've said repeatedly at the
Speaker 5: end of the day, the Senates marked its bills to
Speaker 5: a certain level Senator Haggarty and in his counterpartner, Senate,
Speaker 5: and then we're marking ours to a certain level. They
Speaker 5: will be different. Our priorities are different, and we will
Speaker 5: have to reconcile those. But as I said yesterday in
Speaker 5: the Rules Committee, we do need to get a bill
Speaker 5: across the floor so we can go to conference, and
Speaker 5: that means that we're going to have to maybe accept
Speaker 5: some things we may not like, whether it's the FBI
Speaker 5: issue or you know, maybe the reproductive health issue. In
Speaker 5: the District of Columbia, we got some members that are
Speaker 5: concerned about that, but you know, at the end of
Speaker 5: the day, we need to be able to reconcile our differences,
Speaker 5: get a conference report, get this stuff signed in the law,
Speaker 5: and then move on because it won't be long before
Speaker 5: we're into the calendar year of twenty four and needing
Speaker 5: to be concentrating on FY twenty five. But we're not
Speaker 5: there yet.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us. Congressmen, We really
Speaker 2: appreciate hearing your insights on this matter. That's Congressman Steve Willmack,
Speaker 2: Republican from Arkansas coming up next. We're going to be
Speaker 2: talking about not only about the spending, but also about
Speaker 2: today's election day. Did you remember, We're going to be
Speaker 2: talking about all the issues that are up that may
Speaker 2: provide a roadmap for what's going to happen in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four, So with us that's coming up on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Radio right out now.
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Speaker 2: Joining us are Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis and Democratic
Speaker 2: strategist Almater. So, Rick, tell us what you thought about
Speaker 2: sort of. I thought it was very refreshing to hear
Speaker 2: the congressman talk about how they're not doing it the
Speaker 2: way you're supposed to do it.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well done, guys. I thought that was really an
Speaker 7: illuminating and informational conversation, sort of cuts through all the
Speaker 7: weeds and smoke that exists in the caucus and in
Speaker 7: the Congress and says, here's what we got to do.
Speaker 7: It's very simple, and from the perspective of an appropriator
Speaker 7: whose job it is to fund the government. And he
Speaker 7: of course starts out by reminding everybody that, you know,
Speaker 7: the fiscal year ended about a month and a half ago,
Speaker 7: and so we are way behind on schedule, you know.
Speaker 7: I thought he also shed some interesting light on this
Speaker 7: notion of a laddered cr and these two sort of deadlines,
Speaker 7: you know, one that we're hearing about in December and
Speaker 7: one in January.
Speaker 6: And and he said.
Speaker 7: Something that I thought was interesting about how those would
Speaker 7: be potentially like omnibus bills that would be packaged up
Speaker 7: together to meet those two deadlines, depending upon you know,
Speaker 7: the agencies that they were covering. And gosh, that sounds complicated.
Speaker 7: I know it's coming out of the you know Andy Harrison,
Speaker 7: another appropriator who you know, has come up with this idea,
Speaker 7: But I honestly could not see that flying in the
Speaker 7: House of Representatives or in the Senate. So yeah, lots
Speaker 7: to chew on for the next ten days while we
Speaker 7: wait and see the government potentially shut down.
Speaker 3: Well, I'm I'm curious also based on what the Congressman
Speaker 3: said about these conversations about a stopgap measure to avoid
Speaker 3: a shutdown and what could and couldn't get tied to it.
Speaker 3: When I talk to senators, they seem to think that
Speaker 3: this is their chance to get Ukraine Aid passed, tying
Speaker 3: it to the stopgap measure, do everything in one big
Speaker 3: package al. When Congressman Congressman Womack says, let's just do
Speaker 3: a clean cr get to the supplemental spending stuff later,
Speaker 3: what does that mean practically for the state of congressional
Speaker 3: discussions around Ukraine Aid in particular.
Speaker 8: Well, look, I mean the House has been consistent on
Speaker 8: the Republican side in terms of not being as supportive
Speaker 8: of a to Ukraine as both Democrats and Republicans in
Speaker 8: the Senate and the administration. And that's a problem. It's
Speaker 8: a problem because we don't have a solution to a
Speaker 8: funding crisis that's going to escalate in a week and
Speaker 8: a day. And so while I agree that your interview
Speaker 8: with Connors and Womack was good, what I didn't hear
Speaker 8: was how is this going to be solved. I heard
Speaker 8: a lot of platitudes about what you shouldn't do at
Speaker 8: home and how rational people ought to act. But the
Speaker 8: bottom line is that the House is engaging in a
Speaker 8: risky game here and is not really operating in a
Speaker 8: reality that politically exists, and that reality is that Ukraine
Speaker 8: Aid is going to be funded at some point in
Speaker 8: the next several months, whether they like it or not.
Speaker 2: So, Rick, we heard him talk about meeting with Senator
Speaker 2: Susan Collins last night, and you know, seem to be
Speaker 2: open to dealing with the Senate on this. I mean,
Speaker 2: how do much do you think that his viewpoint is
Speaker 2: different from the other House Republicans.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say a lot different, June. I mean,
Speaker 7: appropriators always sort of get along, right the Senate, both
Speaker 7: Republican and Democratic readership in the in the in the Senate,
Speaker 7: and and the same in the House in the Appropriations Committee.
Speaker 7: You know, they're they're they're simple guys. They just deal
Speaker 7: with numbers. Uh They they they get these numbers, you know,
Speaker 7: from a from a caucus or or a party that
Speaker 7: is in control, and then they apply those across the
Speaker 7: boards and and there they are the classic being counters.
Speaker 7: And in all that, as outpoints out, is a bunch
Speaker 7: of policies, you know that some get you know, plussed
Speaker 7: up and given more money, and some get cut. Uh
Speaker 7: and and and frankly, the Senate, you know, they've they've
Speaker 7: sort of been chugging away. They're still behind too, but
Speaker 7: but they've been chugging away at their appropriations bills in
Speaker 7: a very bipartisan fashion. Uh and and and frankly, if
Speaker 7: you look inside the Appropriations Committee of the House, it's
Speaker 7: pretty bipartisan too as far as what their markups are.
Speaker 7: It's just they can't get things out of committees and
Speaker 7: they can't get things in the floor action. So they're
Speaker 7: going to abdicate to the Senate, you know, procedurally, because
Speaker 7: the Senate is just going to move on, and the
Speaker 7: sooner or later you're going to wake up and realize, well,
Speaker 7: how did the Senate get ahead of us on all
Speaker 7: this stuff? How did they wind up getting the advantage
Speaker 7: of dictating terms which includes Ukraine funding. Well, it's because
Speaker 7: the House just didn't do enough quick enough, and that's
Speaker 7: you could almost see that train wreck coming.
Speaker 3: Well, if I could provide one little counterpoint, I don't
Speaker 3: necessarily disagree with your point Rick about the House abdicating
Speaker 3: the potential advantage they have by not moving so fast.
Speaker 3: But the honeymoon period that the Congressman referenced with Mike
Speaker 3: Johnson as the new speaker seems relevant. They have passed
Speaker 3: a couple bills since he was elected speaker. It sounds
Speaker 3: like maybe there's not really an appetite to push for
Speaker 3: a shutdown. Al I'm curious if you really buy it
Speaker 3: that there is this honeymoon period in which the House
Speaker 3: Republican conference can rally behind their new speaker and there
Speaker 3: won't be quite as much chaos because of that.
Speaker 8: I mean, the problem they face is that there's such
Speaker 8: a small margin for error. And I mean, yeah, I
Speaker 8: guess he's in a honeymoon period. But Historically, speaking speakers
Speaker 8: didn't typically have honeymoon periods of a week or two
Speaker 8: or three weeks. They were speakers for years and years.
Speaker 8: What just happened with Kevin McCarthy was unprecedented in our
Speaker 8: nation's history, and so he may have a honeymoon period,
Speaker 8: but it's not gonna last long, and those folks like
Speaker 8: Matt Gates and others who pulled McCarthy out of his
Speaker 8: office and shoved him into the ranks of the rank
Speaker 8: and file will agitate again at some point soon. I
Speaker 8: do think, however, that there will be a continuing resolution
Speaker 8: and we're unlikely to have a shutdown of any significant length,
Speaker 8: if at all. But then there'll be a fight next year.
Speaker 8: In April, there will be one percent cuts unless there
Speaker 8: is an agreement on appropriation. And again back to my
Speaker 8: comment about fantasy versus reality, the House Republicans, led by
Speaker 8: Speaker McCarthy, negotiated a spending that is not what they
Speaker 8: are now insisting on. And so if they insist on
Speaker 8: a number that was not negotiated to and say we
Speaker 8: need one percent cuts, we're going to have a problem.
Speaker 8: And Democrats won't mind to pick that battle in an
Speaker 8: election year.
Speaker 2: What role do you think Democrats will play in these negotiations.
Speaker 8: I think we'll do what we always do, which point
Speaker 8: it is to point out if these cuts were put
Speaker 8: into place, which and we will argue that Republicans favor
Speaker 8: these cuts. Here are the people who will be hurt.
Speaker 8: People who get food stamps, people who are dependent on SNAP,
Speaker 8: which is a food program, people who are dependent on
Speaker 8: the government for healthcare or for social Security, or perhaps
Speaker 8: people who care about our national parks, or perhaps people
Speaker 8: who care about government employees being paid. We'll have a
Speaker 8: whole litany of examples that will be harmed adversely impacted
Speaker 8: if these across the board sequester cuts go into place,
Speaker 8: and then if Republicans play the game the way they
Speaker 8: often do, there'll be a shutdown, which will then lead
Speaker 8: to more examples of harm and disadvantaging people across America.
Speaker 8: And it's not a winning game for them. I get
Speaker 8: why the conservative wing wants to do what they want
Speaker 8: to do, but ultimately, politically this always seems to benefit us.
Speaker 3: Right Rick, real quick before we go, do you see
Speaker 3: this getting dragged out in what a full year cr
Speaker 3: going to April? What's the actual timeline do you think.
Speaker 7: Well, That's the funny part is that nobody, even Republicans,
Speaker 7: don't like full your CRS because then their favorite programs
Speaker 7: don't get funded. So that does tend to be a problem,
Speaker 7: especially the military budgets, you know, the Department of Defense,
Speaker 7: and so I don't see that happening. I think that
Speaker 7: they'll come to some kind of a deal.
Speaker 1: But Al's right.
Speaker 7: I mean, like, you know, they got to come to
Speaker 7: grips with the fact that they already cut a deal
Speaker 7: on the top line numbers, and it sounded like Steve
Speaker 7: Omack earlier wasn't alluding to the fact that they were
Speaker 7: going to apply a cut on top of that. But
Speaker 7: of course, you know, you never know, right, I mean,
Speaker 7: you've got the crazy eights, the people who unseated Kevin
Speaker 7: McCarthy who are still there, and we're going to see
Speaker 7: what kind of honeymoon they give to the news speaker.
Speaker 7: But I don't think we've heard the last chapter of
Speaker 7: discord within the House Republicans at this stage.
Speaker 2: We'll have more with our panel, our politics panel with
Speaker 2: Bloomberg contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist Al Mater, and
Speaker 2: you're going to be talking about election day whatsaw on
Speaker 2: the ballot and what it means for twenty twenty four.
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Speaker 2: Rick. In Ohio, abortion is actually on the ballot and
Speaker 2: voters could put abortion rights in the state constitution. But
Speaker 2: while abortion may not be on the ballot in others states,
Speaker 2: it's very much part of campaigns and states like Virginia
Speaker 2: and Kentucky. So what will the results today tell us
Speaker 2: about the strength of that issue in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I think you could wind up with three
Speaker 7: different scenarios, right, I mean, abortion supporters could win out,
Speaker 7: you know, and so they win the initiative in Ohio
Speaker 7: and the support of candidates they're backing, as you said,
Speaker 7: in places like Kentucky and Virginia. Virginia of course very
Speaker 7: close to determine whether or not the Senate and the
Speaker 7: House are in Republican or Democratic hands, and of course
Speaker 7: that would then indicate a willingness or not of the
Speaker 7: legislature to support Governor Younkin's views of putting some limits
Speaker 7: on abortion that currently don't exist in Virginia. So it's
Speaker 7: a big it's a big task now. The other option
Speaker 7: is also available where Republicans and abortion opponents went out,
Speaker 7: and of course that would take a lot of win
Speaker 7: going into the twenty twenty four election for Democrats who
Speaker 7: hope to use abortion again in that election is a
Speaker 7: means of getting people elected. Then of course the third
Speaker 7: option is just a mixed bag, right. All these states
Speaker 7: kind of do a different thing, and there's not a
Speaker 7: clear path. And I would actually expect that to be
Speaker 7: the most likely option only because I don't think there's
Speaker 7: the intensity with the vote right now. It's certainly not
Speaker 7: seeing it in the polls that would indicate that you
Speaker 7: have that driver, you know, post Supreme Court decision of
Speaker 7: two years ago, going into the twenty twenty elections, you
Speaker 7: know where you had enormous energy and turnout by certain
Speaker 7: groups that were supportive of abortion. Just don't see that
Speaker 7: happening right now in the polls, but will know tomorrow.
Speaker 3: All from a Democrats perspective, do you think that Democrats
Speaker 3: are going to be looking at the Ohio results of
Speaker 3: this ballot initiative and using that to any degree to
Speaker 3: decide how much to emphasize abortion access in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 8: I do what's interesting about the Ohio referendum or vote
Speaker 8: is that this is the first initiative in which Democrats
Speaker 8: are pursuing a constitutional right. All of the energy that
Speaker 8: Rick was referring to in the twenty twenty two election
Speaker 8: came in opposition to concerns that Republicans wanted to restrict
Speaker 8: abortions to either no opportunity at all or essentially in
Speaker 8: fact no opportunity at all with draconian restrictions up to
Speaker 8: six weeks. In Ohio, the vote is on a constitutionally
Speaker 8: protected right. So that's an affirmative vote. And I'm curious
Speaker 8: to see how far the movement goes. But I will
Speaker 8: say it's crafted to reflect the law predobs and should
Speaker 8: it pass, Ohio will essentially have a law that reflected
Speaker 8: the law under Roe v. Wade, And so I think
Speaker 8: it has a decent chance in passing. And I would
Speaker 8: note in the Virginia races, where Governor Younkin is trying
Speaker 8: to flip the Senate and gain a Republican majority, he
Speaker 8: may have honed in on what is, in my opinion,
Speaker 8: the best political position for Republicans, which is to support
Speaker 8: a fifteen week ban, which is in essence what I
Speaker 8: think Chief Justice Roberts was trying to do when the
Speaker 8: Dobbs decision was reached. And perhaps, and this is not
Speaker 8: conventional wisdom, but perhaps a Republican clerk or Justice office
Speaker 8: released the draft decision because they were trying to stop that,
Speaker 8: and they ultimately voted six to three for a more restrictive,
Speaker 8: restrictive outcome.
Speaker 2: A lot of legal scholars think that that's what happened,
Speaker 2: that it was a Republican who leaked that. So let's
Speaker 2: there are a few important governor's races in the South.
Speaker 2: In Kentucky, Governor Andy Basheer, one of the few remaining
Speaker 2: democratic red state governors, is running for a second term
Speaker 2: against Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who's a Trump
Speaker 2: back conservative and though not explicitly on the ballot, abortion
Speaker 2: has featured prominently in the campaign. So Rick, can a
Speaker 2: popular governor overcome the national negative trends on Biden in
Speaker 2: a state that Trump won by twenty six points.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say it would really be amazing if
Speaker 7: he can do that because, in addition to that big
Speaker 7: Trump win in the state of Kentucky, and obviously every
Speaker 7: other statewide elected official is a Republican, we are in
Speaker 7: a period of time where that just doesn't exist.
Speaker 8: Anywhere in the United States anymore.
Speaker 7: They're only five states now where there are mixed statewide
Speaker 7: elected officials from one party and the other. I mean,
Speaker 7: we used to have that normal in twenty twenty five
Speaker 7: states where maybe two of the senators were from different parties,
Speaker 7: or the governor was a different party like this case,
Speaker 7: and the senators were from another party. Those we've turned
Speaker 7: into such a polarized country that right now, I mean,
Speaker 7: if you have a governor and two senators and a
Speaker 7: majority of your delegation is usually in one party, and
Speaker 7: that then translates into state legislatures. All politics is national now.
Speaker 7: And so if Governor Basher can avoid that, he'll he'll
Speaker 7: prove the negative in a way that I just think
Speaker 7: is very hard to predict, and more likely the norm
Speaker 7: takes hold, and that is that you know, it gets
Speaker 7: rationalized back to being all state wide elected officials in Kentucky,
Speaker 7: You're going to be Republican.
Speaker 3: Al real quick before we go. I do want to
Speaker 3: follow on Kentucky. Andy Basheer looks competitive, surprisingly competitive for
Speaker 3: a Democrat in Kentucky. How much does the Basher name
Speaker 3: help him? His dad was governor. I'm wondering if he's
Speaker 3: an exception to the rule because of such a strong
Speaker 3: identification with the Sheer name there.
Speaker 8: I think that's right, and I think he's I mean,
Speaker 8: Pauline shows this. He's very popular in Kentucky, which means
Speaker 8: he must be doing something right as the incumbent governor,
Speaker 8: and so generally speaking, it would be tough for him,
Speaker 8: but he's not on the ballot next year, when he'd
Speaker 8: be competing against the Republican nominee at the top of
Speaker 8: the ticket, and most if you were a betting man,
Speaker 8: and I am, I would say that he slightly favored
Speaker 8: to win, and it would be remarkable in a sense,
Speaker 8: but also not surprising because he's delivered results for Kentuckians
Speaker 8: and he's immensely popular.
Speaker 2: As I said, well, thank you both. That's Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 2: contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist Al Matter. We will
Speaker 2: see if any of these predictions come true.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound on podcast Catch the
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Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 9: Jack, Nice to see you. Thanks for stepping into Joe's
Speaker 9: shoes today. And it's election day. Granted, it's twenty twenty
Speaker 9: three election day, which is maybe not as big of
Speaker 9: a deal as the election day to come a year
Speaker 9: from now, but this still could tell us a lot
Speaker 9: about what that election is going to look like.
Speaker 10: What races do you have your eye on?
Speaker 3: You know, I am skeptical about Bellweather races from an
Speaker 3: off year to an on year. I don't know that
Speaker 3: the Virginia results means something for the next year's Virginia results.
Speaker 3: But they do mean something for Glen Youngkin. Yeah, probably
Speaker 3: mean something for his fundraising ability, whether he's seen as
Speaker 3: somebody who can lead a party. You can tell him
Speaker 3: kind of getting toward a twenty twenty eight look ahead
Speaker 3: as much as anything else. There are a lot of
Speaker 3: interesting races, but in general, I am very curious how
Speaker 3: we start to talk about Glen youngkin in a couple days.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I am as well, especially because there's a lot
Speaker 9: of big money donors who have been pushing for him
Speaker 9: to pursue the presidency. But of course a lot of
Speaker 9: that may depend on how he and his party fair
Speaker 9: in the Virginia elections today. Remember, the Democrats currently control
Speaker 9: the state Senate, Republicans have control of the House of Delegates,
Speaker 9: but it's all up for grabs today, so we'll see
Speaker 9: if they can cement Republican control up the legislature or not.
Speaker 9: And we want to add a voice to this conversation now.
Speaker 9: I'm very pleased to say joining us is the former
Speaker 9: governor of Virginia, also a Republican, Jim Gilmore. He also
Speaker 9: served as the US ambassador to the Organization for Security
Speaker 9: and Cooperation in Europe and was the chair of the
Speaker 9: RNC for a brief period of time. So, Governor, thank
Speaker 9: you very much for joining us on the program today.
Speaker 9: How do you think this shakes out in Virginia? You
Speaker 9: think the Republicans can do it?
Speaker 11: Well, yes, we don't know yet because this is a
Speaker 11: brand new election. This is right after a redistricting, so
Speaker 11: all the districts are scrambled up. The candidates are relatively new,
Speaker 11: some of them, so we just don't know how this
Speaker 11: is going to work out yet. The issues, of course,
Speaker 11: have been fully argued out for quite a long time.
Speaker 11: Governor Yunkin has done a significant amount of fundraising and
Speaker 11: has been very vigorous in his support of the Republican tickets.
Speaker 11: But on the other hand, the Democrats nationally, I think,
Speaker 11: have poured a tremendous amount of money. The environmental community,
Speaker 11: particularly the business leaders in the environmental community, have poured
Speaker 11: a ton of money in for the Democrats. So we
Speaker 11: just don't know yet how this is going to shake out.
Speaker 3: Tonight, Governor, when you mentioned the issues have been argued,
Speaker 3: some election cycles are very much focused on an issue.
Speaker 3: We've had election cycles that felt like they were on
Speaker 3: the Dobbs ruling. We've had Obamacare election cycles. Is there
Speaker 3: an issue that Virginians feel they are effectively voting on
Speaker 3: or is it less clear this time?
Speaker 8: No.
Speaker 11: I think it's been very widely publicized on purchase television advertising,
Speaker 11: and the principal issue has been abortion. The Democrats have
Speaker 11: decided that abortion is their strong suit. They're throwing a
Speaker 11: lot of television commercials against the Republican candidates claiming that
Speaker 11: they want to ban abortion, which is factually not true,
Speaker 11: but nonetheless you put it on radio and TV. The
Speaker 11: Republicans are actually chose to meet that argument, and instead
Speaker 11: of avoiding the abortion issue, they are actually addressing it
Speaker 11: and talking about the governor's proposal to ban abortions after
Speaker 11: fifteen weeks with reasonable exceptions. But that is what has
Speaker 11: been argued out now. I would say that the people
Speaker 11: of Virginia are very concerned about high inflation. The costs
Speaker 11: of the grocery store, the costs of gasoline are very
Speaker 11: significant and I think has led to some discontent in Virginia,
Speaker 11: but that has not been the primary debate within these elections.
Speaker 9: Well, and of course we talk about these elections because
Speaker 9: they will have significance for the state. But to what
Speaker 9: Jack was discussing earlier, this potentially could be of national
Speaker 9: significance if indeed it puts a momentum behind Governor Glen Youngkin.
Speaker 9: If you were to ever pursue higher office, especially as
Speaker 9: you yourself went from being governor of Virginia to multiple
Speaker 9: times entering the presidential race, do you see a path
Speaker 9: for Glen Youngkin to do the same.
Speaker 11: Well, certainly, while I was not nominated during these Trump years,
Speaker 11: I'm very proud that I entered, and I have no
Speaker 11: regrets for entering. It's a wonderful thing to run nationally
Speaker 11: and get to know everybody across the entire country when
Speaker 11: you're a candidate. Clint Yunkin has a lot of advantages.
Speaker 11: The biggest advantage of courses. He's a prominent governor of
Speaker 11: the state of Virginia, and he's quite wealthy, and he
Speaker 11: has a lot of financial backing, and he has a message,
Speaker 11: and his message they got him elected, and his message
Speaker 11: remains parental rights, particularly in education. I think people are
Speaker 11: very concerned about the Democrats' efforts to remake education, to
Speaker 11: remake the cultural issues there in the United States. Parents
Speaker 11: are just want their kids to be educated, and they've
Speaker 11: basically had a sort of a rebellion in Virginia against
Speaker 11: the far have to approach to education, and that's why
Speaker 11: Glenn got elected. So all of these things are very current.
Speaker 11: I don't know whether or not he's in a position
Speaker 11: to go in twenty four or not.
Speaker 1: He'll have to.
Speaker 11: Make that decision, but he is an attractive, prominent man
Speaker 11: and could still run in twenty eight Governor.
Speaker 3: I know I've said I'm a little skeptical that twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three tells us something about what happens in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty four. But I am curious if you see this
Speaker 3: as a bell weather for congressional races. Should members of
Speaker 3: Congress be looking at the map that comes out of
Speaker 3: these election results? Do we have anything to learn from
Speaker 3: the results that come out looking forward to twenty twenty.
Speaker 11: Four, Jack, I think you learned something every year. But
Speaker 11: politics in Virginia, we're an unusual state and we have
Speaker 11: an election every year. There's historical grounds and reasons for that.
Speaker 11: But we elect somebody either at the federal level or
Speaker 11: the state level every year, either the governor or the
Speaker 11: presidency or just the legislature like we have this year.
Speaker 11: And yes, I think you learn a lot naturally. Politics
Speaker 11: and issues shift in the United States of America year
Speaker 11: to year. I myself have been devoting my attention to
Speaker 11: foreign policy as the former ambassador, and particularly the Ukraine issue.
Speaker 11: In fact, I sent a letter yesterday to the members
Speaker 11: of the Republican members of the House of Representatives here
Speaker 11: in Virginia insisting that they be sure that they vote
Speaker 11: for the funding of Ukraine. So I'm doing that, and
Speaker 11: that issue may shift into the federal elections next year.
Speaker 11: In fact, I think it would. The foreign policy is
Speaker 11: certainly emerging, between the Ukraine issue, which I think is
Speaker 11: the hinge of the future, and the Israeli issue, which
Speaker 11: of course we are all very engaged in. So foreign
Speaker 11: policy is emerging, but it won't be the only thing
Speaker 11: next year, either in the House races or in the
Speaker 11: presidential races.
Speaker 9: Well to that point, Governor, when you were talking about
Speaker 9: really what you think is on Virginian's minds as they
Speaker 9: head to the polls today, you mentioned two things, really
Speaker 9: infleetion and abortion, both of which seem like internal facing
Speaker 9: issues to me, more domestic affairs than international. Do you
Speaker 9: really think that's going to change in a material way
Speaker 9: in the span of a year, considering there may be
Speaker 9: a little bit more fatigue setting in in terms of
Speaker 9: some of those conflicts you just mentioned.
Speaker 11: This is the most disrupted time I have ever seen
Speaker 11: in my life in American politics. I've never seen anything
Speaker 11: quite like this. So you can't predict what's going to happen,
Speaker 11: but I'll do my best.
Speaker 1: I can.
Speaker 11: I think that the issue of abortion is going to
Speaker 11: continue to be a debate because I think the Democrats
Speaker 11: want it to be a debate and they want that
Speaker 11: to be the principal issue. I think inflation remains a problem.
Speaker 11: There's no doubt that the people of the United States
Speaker 11: and the people in Virginia are blaming President Biden correctly
Speaker 11: in my view, for this inflation that they're seeing at
Speaker 11: the grocery store, in the gas pump. And I think
Speaker 11: the pocketbook issues are always an issue, but I insist
Speaker 11: to you that the foreign policy issues, the issues of
Speaker 11: warrant piece are emerging very strongly. So we always say,
Speaker 11: you know that foreign policy and national security is never
Speaker 11: an issue in elections until it is, and I think
Speaker 11: maybe it is growing that way right now.
Speaker 3: I've got to follow up on your point on Ukraine AID,
Speaker 3: in particular, as I speak to members of Congress, I
Speaker 3: see a big difference between Republicans in the House and
Speaker 3: Senate on how they want to move forward or if
Speaker 3: they want to move forward with Ukraine AID. There's a
Speaker 3: really interesting intra party divide there, especially given your foreign
Speaker 3: policy expertise in your time as RNC chairman, I have
Speaker 3: to just ask you your view on a simple question
Speaker 3: of what is the Republican position on Ukraine AID.
Speaker 11: Right now, the Republican Party is divided, but all the
Speaker 11: noise and attention is being given to the anti Ukraine group.
Speaker 11: But I believe they are a vocal minority. The majority
Speaker 11: of the Republican Party remains committed to Reagan type of
Speaker 11: foreign policy and national security. The Democrats traditionally have not
Speaker 11: been that way, but they are that way now because
Speaker 11: they're so supportive of President Biden. But my view is
Speaker 11: that President Biden needs to do a great deal more.
Speaker 11: He's done too little, too late, and I think that
Speaker 11: there's an aggressive need to fund the Ukrainian war. As
Speaker 11: a matter of fact, damage has already been done by
Speaker 11: this debate in the United States because it makes our
Speaker 11: allies and our allies less certain, and our adversary is
Speaker 11: more enthusiastic because of this division. But I believe that
Speaker 11: at the end of the day, the Republican Party will
Speaker 11: in a strong majority vote for the support of Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Governor. I should ask about timing. I heard from Senator
Speaker 3: Chris Murphy yesterday, who's involved in these negotiations, that they
Speaker 3: really want Ukraine AID to go on a funding package
Speaker 3: that has to happen by November seventeenth. There are so
Speaker 3: many convoluted issues they're negotiating tied to Ukraine. How much
Speaker 3: longer can Congress wait to send additional aid before it
Speaker 3: really really undermines Ukraine.
Speaker 11: I don't think that the undermining Ukraine financially is imminent.
Speaker 11: I think that it's most important about the messaging.
Speaker 1: Right now.
Speaker 11: Vladimir Putin and his allies are looking to American resolve.
Speaker 11: They want to see whether Americans will quit. They want
Speaker 11: to see whether Americans will come either bored or frustrated
Speaker 11: or distracted by other issues, particularly the Israeli war. That's
Speaker 11: what they're looking for, to see whether American resolve will
Speaker 11: crack if America stays solid, and I believe they should,
Speaker 11: and my letter which went to the Virginia congressman will
Speaker 11: of course be published nationally. Also, I believe that as
Speaker 11: long as we stay resolved, we're going to be fined
Speaker 11: in Europe and probably fine in Israel. But these elections
Speaker 11: right now, of course, in Virginia, turning on domestic issues,
Speaker 11: you would expect that this is a state legislature. But
Speaker 11: next year, when the Congress is up and the president
Speaker 11: is up, then I think you'll see all kinds of
Speaker 11: issues education, inflation, jobs, and foreign policy and war and peace.
Speaker 11: I think all of that will be on the agenda
Speaker 11: for next year.
Speaker 9: Okay, so, Governor, let's talk more about that presidential race,
Speaker 9: specifically the Republican primary race, because all of our attention
Speaker 9: will be on Miami tomorrow the third primary debate, in
Speaker 9: which once again the front runner, former President Donald Trump,
Speaker 9: will not be making an appearance. And especially considering your
Speaker 9: former position as chair of the RNC, why are we
Speaker 9: still doing these if he's not showing up, what's the point.
Speaker 11: Well, they're in exposure of the other candidates, and I
Speaker 11: think that what's going on is all is somewhat unpredictable.
Speaker 11: I think actually there's a lot of truths that you
Speaker 11: can figure out here. In my opinion. Number one, President
Speaker 11: Trump is the old, far and away the choice of
Speaker 11: the Republican Party right now, and you can't change that.
Speaker 11: All the polls are perfectly consistent, even into the states.
Speaker 1: They're consistent.
Speaker 11: Now. It doesn't mean that President Trump is necessarily going
Speaker 11: to win. It's pretty much close or attie. But President
Speaker 11: Trump is showing winning in many of the swing states.
Speaker 11: These debates, though give other candidates an opportunity to go
Speaker 11: out there and expose what they believe is right, because,
Speaker 11: after all, these races are quite unpredictable, and these attacks
Speaker 11: on President Trump and the courts are unpredictable, so there's
Speaker 11: there's still time to do these things. I might say.
Speaker 11: I participated, I think in two or three of the
Speaker 11: national debates, and there are great service to the people
Speaker 11: in the community because they give the public an opportunity
Speaker 11: to take a feel for not only the candidates, but
Speaker 11: for what topics they're addressing. So I think it's healthy
Speaker 11: for the United States. I'm not sure that I agree
Speaker 11: with everything the RNC does or says right now, but
Speaker 11: the debates people want to be on them because they
Speaker 11: do give national exposure.
Speaker 3: Does that mean that someone who does a good job
Speaker 3: in these debates is the actual alternative to Trump? Do
Speaker 3: you see a valid person competing with Trump? Or is
Speaker 3: it exposure for future races, for a VP nomination or
Speaker 3: something else.
Speaker 11: Right now, there's no evidence that any of the other
Speaker 11: candidates running for president are able to overcome President Trump,
Speaker 11: and I think maybe there's something I need to say
Speaker 11: to you about this. I watched the Democrats, particularly on
Speaker 11: National Tell Division shows on the Sunday shows, and they
Speaker 11: seem to be puzzled about Donald Trump. I think I
Speaker 11: understand this, and what I understand is this, the far
Speaker 11: left in this country has taken over the Democratic Party
Speaker 11: and is actually aggressively assaulting the society today on education issues,
Speaker 11: on various and sundricultural issues in this country, and conservative
Speaker 11: the Republican Party rank and file are frightened. They feel
Speaker 11: attacked and as a result, they're going to choose a
Speaker 11: leader who they think will fight for them, and that
Speaker 11: person is Donald Trump. And I think that's what's going
Speaker 11: on right now. If the Democrats were more mainstream, there
Speaker 11: might never be a Donald Trump. But the Democrats are
Speaker 11: not mainstream, all right.
Speaker 9: We really appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us today.
Speaker 9: That's former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, of course, also former
Speaker 9: chair of the RNC and former US Ambassador to the
Speaker 9: Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. We really appreciate
Speaker 9: your time on this election day, and of course, before
Speaker 9: we can get to twenty twenty four, Jack, we have
Speaker 9: to get through today when it's not just Virginians heading
Speaker 9: to the polls. Ohio abortions on the ballot. There's a
Speaker 9: few gubernatorial races as well that could sun some pretty
Speaker 9: strong signals on where exactly voters are.
Speaker 3: Yeah, especially with an eye on the national repercussions. I
Speaker 3: am very interested in the Ohio results. It's not a
Speaker 3: true swing state right now, but the question of how
Speaker 3: motivating abortion access is that will matter a lot in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 9: Well, we see people showing up to vote on issue
Speaker 9: one and the same way we saw turnout really driven
Speaker 9: in the immediate aftermath of Roe versus Way. We certainly
Speaker 9: saw that in the midterms last year, but we'll see
Speaker 9: how much that remains as a force. We're going to
Speaker 9: have much more coming up on this second hour of
Speaker 9: sound On, so make sure you stick with us.
Speaker 10: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 9: And we're getting some news, not necessarily on what form.
Speaker 9: The continuing resolution is going to take if one jack,
Speaker 9: but instead from the Senate side about a supplemental. Senate
Speaker 9: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell apparently talked to President Biden and
Speaker 9: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about that yesterday and he says
Speaker 9: that you need a credible border solution in that bill.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So what they mean by credible is not just money.
Speaker 3: The President asked Congress for more money for the Department
Speaker 3: of Homeland Security for border needs, but the response from
Speaker 3: Republicans has been if you want to get Ukraine money, politically,
Speaker 3: you need to attach something quote unquote credible on the border.
Speaker 3: And that means policy changes. That means restrictions on people's
Speaker 3: ability to come in and stay in the US if
Speaker 3: they're seeking asylum, effectively that kind of thing. So that
Speaker 3: opens up a big can of worms, because it's not
Speaker 3: easy to do immigration reform and get into all of
Speaker 3: those policies in a week and a half. And the
Speaker 3: conversation is about tying that to a stop gap measure.
Speaker 3: We don't know if the House will go along with that,
Speaker 3: but as I said, opens up a big can of worms. Yeah,
Speaker 3: if they're trying to legislate on all of these issues.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I would imagine just the bigger it gets, the
Speaker 9: harder it gets, and we're quickly running out of time.
Speaker 9: I also have to wonder, given that immigration reform in
Speaker 9: the border is such a big topic on the hill,
Speaker 9: if that really is something that is going to drive
Speaker 9: voters when they're heading to the polls. We just had
Speaker 9: a great conversation with the former governor of Virginia, Jim Gilmore,
Speaker 9: who says he really thinks voters right now are voting
Speaker 9: on abortion, and they're voting on the economy and on inflation.
Speaker 9: And on that note, I was really struck by a
Speaker 9: new survey from Ipsos and Yahoo Finance about the economy
Speaker 9: and specifically President Biden's job with the economy. Seventeen percent
Speaker 9: of those responding in the survey said policies have helped them.
Speaker 9: Forty six percent said Biden's policies have hurt them. Looking
Speaker 9: great for the man currently sitting in the Oval office, Jack.
Speaker 3: It's looking rough. It makes sense why there are non
Speaker 3: economy focused issues that Democrats are pushing hard for. And
Speaker 3: they did have success in the twenty twenty two midterms
Speaker 3: and in terms of not losing too many House seats
Speaker 3: to Republicans in a tough year with a lot of
Speaker 3: people running on abortion access and making that a big focus.
Speaker 10: So it worked in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 9: The question is it going to work again today as
Speaker 9: people hedge the polls and then again in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 9: So let's get more on this now joining us as
Speaker 9: Cliff Young, he's president of US Public Affairs at IPSOS.
Speaker 9: So Cliff, just talk to us more about the data
Speaker 9: you are seeing. How much trouble does it really spell
Speaker 9: for Biden and potentially Democratic hopefuls and incumbents more broadly.
Speaker 6: Well, we're still pretty far off from the election with
Speaker 6: more than a year, right, and so we have to
Speaker 6: take that, take that with a bit of grain of
Speaker 6: salt any sort of data we see today. But that said,
Speaker 6: Biden is a historically weak incumbent. We have him as
Speaker 6: thirty nine percent of overrating, which is at the tipping point.
Speaker 6: It's about forty percent. That's the tipping point for a
Speaker 6: sitting president having better than a fifty to fifty chance
Speaker 6: of winning the next election. We know that he's not
Speaker 6: connecting with voters on the economy, and it is the economy,
Speaker 6: the economy, the economy, and more specifically inflation, and to
Speaker 6: date the administration has not been able to make that
Speaker 6: bridge that gap, make that connection, and really voters at
Speaker 6: this point are really surly when it comes to the economy.
Speaker 3: Cliff when you mention that mark of being under forty
Speaker 3: percent for an incumbent and the bad news that is
Speaker 3: for their chances of reelection. There is time, there's about
Speaker 3: a year until election day. Is thirty nine percent so
Speaker 3: low that historically that is very very bad news even
Speaker 3: with a year left, or what can what should we
Speaker 3: keep in mind with the runway that President Biden has
Speaker 3: to try to slow the rate of inflation and win
Speaker 3: people over on the economy.
Speaker 6: Well, thirty nine percent is not a death sentence. It's
Speaker 6: it's about forty nine percent chance of winning. So that's
Speaker 6: not you're not out of the game, right. We have
Speaker 6: a year. The economy could change, so the contextual variables
Speaker 6: could change, driving up the numbers. And we know that
Speaker 6: incumbents do pretty well during the campaigns. So what happens
Speaker 6: ultimately is that the administration, in this case, Biden's administration,
Speaker 6: will hammer home the sort of accomplishments during the campaign
Speaker 6: communicate that. So typically approval ratings improve, you know, during
Speaker 6: that period of the electoral cycle, but once again he's
Speaker 6: not in a good place today.
Speaker 9: Yeah, on the economy, especially as you've been outlining, Cliff,
Speaker 9: what about some of these other issues that we were
Speaker 9: just hearing from former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore. He thinks
Speaker 9: Democrats are really trying to focus on maybe because of
Speaker 9: the weakness on the economy, issue like abortion. Is that
Speaker 9: going to be the same kind of galvanizing force that
Speaker 9: it had been in the immediate aftermath or more immediate
Speaker 9: aftermath of the overturning of Row.
Speaker 10: What does your polling suggest.
Speaker 6: Well, at the at the national level for president, I
Speaker 6: think it's going to be the economy unless some other
Speaker 6: issue comes to four. I think the down ballot races
Speaker 6: and the state races and more local races, the abortion
Speaker 6: issue is going to be important in deciding outcomes. So
Speaker 6: I do agree there. The other point I wanted to make,
Speaker 6: and you made this point at the beginning about the border,
Speaker 6: the number one issue among Republicans today is immigration, and
Speaker 6: so while it might not galvanize Americans in general, it
Speaker 6: definitely energizes the Republican base and makes a complete sense
Speaker 6: the initiative to today in Congress to have that as
Speaker 6: some sort of demand in any sort of any sort
Speaker 6: of deal.
Speaker 3: How how does that compare? As you said, it makes
Speaker 3: sense to tie something on the border to Ukraine funding.
Speaker 3: Is what do we know about the in the enthusiasm
Speaker 3: of skeptics or opponents of Ukraine eight We talked to
Speaker 3: Governor Gilmore about where exactly the Republican Party comes down
Speaker 3: on Ukraine aid. It's a bit of a complicated answer,
Speaker 3: but I mean, is that enough to win people over
Speaker 3: or are Republicans really moving away from foreign aid to Ukraine.
Speaker 6: Well, at this point, Americans in general are more isolationists
Speaker 6: than they were a generation to go, and Republicans especially.
Speaker 6: So that said, I wouldn't say it's a galvanizing issue.
Speaker 6: Immigration in my mind among for Republicans is key, but
Speaker 6: definitely on the margins. On the margins it is. You know,
Speaker 6: it is a change, right, is a change relative to
Speaker 6: a generation generation half ago. It goes towards the Israel
Speaker 6: Israel conflict as well and Gaza. Now it's not much
Speaker 6: as Republicans more Democrats, but the younger generation is less
Speaker 6: interventionist than older generals.
Speaker 9: So just to expand on the idea of public sentiment
Speaker 9: around Israel and its war with Hamas. It feels like
Speaker 9: there is more pressure, especially in certain portions of the
Speaker 9: Democratic Party, for humanitarian considerations to begin trumping that of
Speaker 9: Israel's objectives in trouncing Hamas. Is that reflected in public sentiment?
Speaker 9: Is there a shift underway in terms of support for Israel?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so in general, just Americans in general, there's about
Speaker 6: eighty five eighty seven percent of Americans are in favor
Speaker 6: of humanitarian aid and relief. So that's not something that
Speaker 6: varies that much from party to party. I would say
Speaker 6: there is a there is a pro Palestinian or maybe
Speaker 6: more of an agnostic bent in the Democrat Party today,
Speaker 6: and that's especially among younger voters. The younger generation has less,
Speaker 6: i would say, linkage less relationship with the issues in
Speaker 6: in the Middle East compared to a generation or two ago,
Speaker 6: and that definitely is manifesting itself today in public opinion.
Speaker 10: All right, really fascinating stuff.
Speaker 9: We always appreciate you joining us and your insights and
Speaker 9: your great data. Cliff Young, the President of US Public
Speaker 9: Affairs at episodes, thank you very much, and Jack. It
Speaker 9: just kind of returns us to this calculus. So if
Speaker 9: you're thinking about the mind of a voter, where really
Speaker 9: some of these internationally oriented issues are going to rank
Speaker 9: when they go to the ballot box and are thinking
Speaker 9: about what's going on at their kitchen table.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I find it really interesting the point that
Speaker 3: the border is so much more of a motivating issue
Speaker 3: for conservatives that maybe this whole negotiation in Congress, where
Speaker 3: Republicans are saying, if we're going to do Ukraine, we
Speaker 3: need border stuff, isn't so much opposition to Ukraine but
Speaker 3: just an opportunity for them to get a win that
Speaker 3: their voters will help them on. I found that very
Speaker 3: very interesting.
Speaker 9: Yeah, maybe just a chance to use leverage while you
Speaker 9: have it right, because again the clock is sticking and
Speaker 9: day tick and louder and ticking faster again. Mitch McConnell,
Speaker 9: the Senate minority leader, says that there needs to be
Speaker 9: a credible border solution in a supplemental spending bill. We'll
Speaker 9: see if they can kind of coalesce around what exactly
Speaker 9: that solution is.
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