1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: We're ten days away from a government shutdown. While Senators 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: are aimy for a bypartisan deal that could package ade 7 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: for Israel and Ukraine with funding to keep the government operating, 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,159 Speaker 2: House Republicans seem to be exploring multiple competing options to 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 2: avert a shutdown. Jack, I know you cover this minute 10 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 2: by minute. It seems like we've been here before. Is 11 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 2: this any different? 12 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 3: This is different? At least we can say that it 13 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 3: got pretty nasty at the end of September and led 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 3: to the ouster of the speaker at the time, Kevin McCarthy. 15 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 3: So at the very least, I think it's different because 16 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 3: he's gone, we have a new speaker. There does seem 17 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 3: to be some understanding among House Republicans that you need 18 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 3: to give a new speaker a runway. So I haven't 19 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 3: heard too much discussion about people threatening a shutdown. But yeah, 20 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 3: they killed a lot of time and now we're ten 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 3: days out and they're talking about more or less an 22 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 3: immigration reform being tacked on to this. So many different 23 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: challenges they face, and I'm looking forward to getting the 24 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 3: congressman point of view on this because they don't have 25 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:20,119 Speaker 3: very much time. 26 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,919 Speaker 2: At all Before we go to the Congressman, Let's listen 27 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 2: to what Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, had to say. 28 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 4: With regard to the funding of the government. We're working 29 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 4: earnestly on that. We certainly want to avoid a government 30 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 4: shut down. It's a dangerous time around the world right now. 31 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 4: We recognize that and we're doing our job. So we 32 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 4: had a very i would call it a refreshing, constructive 33 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: family conversation in our House Republican Conference meeting for an 34 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 4: hour ago, very deliberate, positive discussions about the many options 35 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 4: that are on the table, and we'll be revealing what 36 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 4: our plan is in short order. 37 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: Joining us now is Congressman Steve Wollmack, the Republican representing 38 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 2: the third District of Arkansas. Thanks so much for joining us. 39 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 5: Congressman Hey good afnon June Good to be with you 40 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 5: and Jack both. 41 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: The Senate is discussing a legislative package I just mentioned 42 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 2: that would avoid a shutdown and include measures for Ukraine, Israel, 43 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 2: and the US Mexico border. Do you think that kind 44 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 2: of wide ranging bill can come together by next Friday 45 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 2: or we'll have to be narrowed? 46 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 5: Well, you know, you would like to think that cooler 47 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 5: heads will prevail, and we have an interest in making 48 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 5: sure that we don't lapse in appropriations and force a 49 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 5: government shutdown. You know, I try to be optimistic about 50 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 5: the whole thing. Let's be honest. There are ten days 51 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 5: left before that magical date of November the seventeenth, which, 52 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 5: in political speak is a heck of a long time. Remember, 53 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 5: we don't do anything till the last minute around here, 54 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 5: which frustrates the dickens out of me. I will tell you, 55 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 5: when you are facing an issue, rational people try to 56 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 5: deal with the options on the front end and settle 57 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 5: it all before it becomes a matter of urgency, because 58 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 5: I do believe you make some of your biggest mistakes 59 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 5: in life when you're either heavily emotional or in a 60 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 5: hurry or running out of time. And that's precisely where 61 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 5: we are. But we have in the House, and I 62 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 5: can only speak to the House. I try not to 63 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 5: render opinions about the Senate because it's a different animal 64 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 5: over there. But in the House, we have seven of 65 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 5: the twelve appropriation bills that are done on an annual 66 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 5: basis all the way through the House we have turned 67 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 5: down ag so that one still hangs out there. We 68 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 5: have Transportation on the floor today, we have my bill, 69 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 5: a financial services bill on the floor tomorrow and Thursday, 70 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 5: hoping to get final passage on both of those that 71 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 5: would put our count up to nine. And we have 72 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 5: two hanging out there that haven't even made it through 73 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 5: the full committee yet, and that's Commerce, Justice, Science read FVII, 74 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 5: and also the Labor, Health and Human Services and Education piece, 75 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 5: and that one becomes problematic as well because of the 76 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 5: deep cuts to labor. 77 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 6: Ah. 78 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 5: So that's precisely where we are right now, and it 79 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 5: is obvious to me that we are looking down the 80 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 5: barrel of a continuing resolution next weekend in order to 81 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 5: prevent a lapse in appropriations. Now, a lot of people think, 82 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 5: well that maybe there's time left for Congress to be 83 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 5: able to get all this work done, match it up 84 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 5: with the Senate, and get it signed in the law. Well, 85 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 5: that's just simply a fool's era. That's futile, it's not 86 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 5: going to happen, So we're going to need a CR. 87 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 5: So what Mike Johnson talked about in conference today, the 88 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 5: different options out there, time is not on our side. 89 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 5: It's not our friend right now. And frankly, I think 90 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 5: it's going to require us to be able to last 91 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 5: past some sort of a clean continuing resolution for a 92 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 5: date certain once we get closer to the end of 93 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 5: next week. 94 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 3: And Congressman, when you say that seems like it's necessary. 95 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: One is there support broadly among House Republicans for a 96 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 3: clean CR? And two what does that mean for the 97 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 3: bigger questions about how the US responds to requests for aid, 98 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 3: especially I'm thinking of Ukraine. Israel might be more bipartisan. 99 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 3: But what does that mean if you follow through on 100 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 3: a clean CR. 101 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 5: Well, I think we have to look at this and 102 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 5: through each different lens. For example, we do have a 103 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 5: need right now to be able to answer to the 104 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 5: requests and the need for us to participate in some 105 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 5: of the other larger issues that are happening abroad. But 106 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 5: let's set that aside for a minute, because appropriators right 107 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 5: now are singularly focused on trying to get their work 108 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 5: finished so that we can have full year appropriations for 109 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,679 Speaker 5: the remainder of this fiscal year. And we're already over 110 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 5: a month into the fiscal year, so we're talking about, 111 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,799 Speaker 5: you know, the better part of eleven months right now. 112 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 5: So that's what that's I think that's how we need 113 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 5: to look at it. What can we do to take 114 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 5: the issues about funding the US government that's discretionary spending. 115 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 5: How can we take that off the table and solve 116 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 5: for that issue right now and then turn our attention 117 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 5: back to the supplemental bill that the Biden administration wants, 118 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 5: and because it's got mixed reviews. I mean, there are 119 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 5: members of our caucus on the right in the House 120 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,840 Speaker 5: that certainly do not want to do anything in Ukraine, 121 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 5: and of course there are those that do believe that 122 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 5: we have a vested interest in what's going on in 123 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 5: Eastern Europe. But I do think you have to separate 124 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 5: the two, and I think we need to move straight 125 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 5: ahead with as clean as we are as we possibly 126 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 5: can to get the government funded beyond the seventeenth day 127 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 5: of November to eight dates. Certain now we can argue 128 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 5: about whether that should be before Christmas, or whether that 129 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 5: should be mid January or whenever let's just make let's 130 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 5: just take the idea that the federal government is going 131 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 5: to enter a partial shutdown ahead of the holiday season. 132 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 5: Let's just get that issue off the table and then 133 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 5: turn our attention to some of the other issues of 134 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 5: the day. 135 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 2: So, what does a proposal for a stop gap funding 136 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 2: bill with two different deadlines December seventh and January nineteenth, 137 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 2: what is your take on that? 138 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 5: Look, I've tried to keep an open mind and listen 139 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 5: to other alternatives, but at the end of the day, Look, 140 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 5: I'm an appropriator. The way this is supposed to work, 141 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 5: we're supposed to do budgets earlier in the year. We're 142 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 5: supposed to kick out top line numbers. We call those 143 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 5: three two A numbers. That's Washington speak for the top 144 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 5: line number for discretionary spending. Then the appropriator subdivide that 145 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 5: money twelve ways, and we fund defense, and we fund transportation, 146 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 5: and we fund cancer research and all that other kind 147 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 5: of stuff, and we carve out what we call the 148 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 5: three O two b's, and that's the amount of money 149 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 5: for each of the various twelve titles. That's the way 150 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 5: this is supposed to work. It's not supposed to be 151 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 5: done in October or November. It is supposed to be 152 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 5: done in June and July, so that when we get 153 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 5: to October first, the agencies know exactly what their budget is. 154 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 5: I would say to any competent, rational business person listening 155 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 5: to this interview right now, do not try this at home. 156 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 5: This is not the method that you should be using 157 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 5: in order to fund your business, because it will meet 158 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 5: with certain failure. But that's the way the federal government operates, 159 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 5: and without guardrails, without any incentives, carrots, sticks, or otherwise. 160 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 5: To be able to hold Congress accountable right now for 161 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 5: the way it handles budgets and appropriations. Without those I'm 162 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 5: afraid we're condemned to this, this groundhog day scenario of 163 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 5: continuing resolutions, omnibus packages, threats of a government shut down, 164 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 5: anything other than regular order. 165 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 3: So Congressman, given that that frustrated answer, with the state 166 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 3: of how Congress doesn't always do its job, I have 167 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 3: to ask, when you hear about this laddered cr with 168 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 3: two different deadlines, is the House Republican conference or are 169 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 3: the members who bring this up grasping for straws now 170 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 3: for some sort of creative idea, or what should we 171 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 3: make of that proposal. 172 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,719 Speaker 5: Well, I think what you're finding is they're looking for 173 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 5: anything that might work. I am not sold on the 174 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 5: idea of a laddered CR because I don't think we 175 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 5: need to get into the business of having multiple deadlines, 176 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 5: because Congress has a hard time walking and chewing gum 177 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 5: at the same time, meeting various deadlines for various titles. 178 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,080 Speaker 5: And oh, by the way, what do you put in 179 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 5: that first omnis this package? You know, what are the funding, 180 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 5: what are the agencies that you first one? What's going 181 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 5: to be in the second one? Is one supposed to 182 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 5: be real easy? Is the second one that you could 183 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 5: get bogged down and trying to figure out what you 184 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 5: do next? And look, I think what we need to 185 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 5: do is just finish our work on appropriations. And like 186 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 5: I say, we've got seven of our twelve bills through 187 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 5: the full House ready to go to conference with the Senate. 188 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 5: I said, I had dinner last night with Susan Collins, 189 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 5: you know, the ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. 190 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 5: She and I talked about the way forward over on 191 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 5: the Senate side. I think we just need to buy 192 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 5: some more time and then finish our work house and Senate, 193 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,199 Speaker 5: get them to conference, and then come back with a 194 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 5: conference report that could be appealing and get approval from 195 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 5: both chambers of Congress and be signed in the law. 196 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 5: That is the way this thing was designed to work, 197 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 5: and I don't see any other method that's going to 198 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 5: trump that one. If you will, as as a way forward, do. 199 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 2: The other members of your conference feel the same way 200 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 2: about negotiating with the Senate to move forward? 201 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 5: I think if you're talking to appropriators, yes, If you're 202 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 5: talking to the House Freedom Caucus, probably not so. 203 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: Yes. 204 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 5: And there are a lot of people caught in the 205 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 5: middle because this, you know, basically becomes, you know, an 206 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 5: issue that gets played out in the general public, and 207 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 5: people have very strong feelings about it, and they start 208 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 5: calling their member offices. Do this, don't do that. And look, 209 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 5: at the end of the day, Congress just needs to 210 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 5: a job. This is what we're This is the most 211 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 5: fundamental of our duty funding the government. It should not 212 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 5: be this difficult. There is a process that our framers 213 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 5: established for how we should operate. We have violated that process, 214 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 5: and we find ourselves here at the eleventh hour trying 215 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 5: to figure out what to do when we've got so 216 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 5: many different mixed opinions, but I do agree with what 217 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 5: was said early in the interview when you established that 218 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 5: Mike Johnson is a brand new Speaker of the House 219 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 5: and he does bring to the table a bit of 220 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 5: patients with all sides. You know, he's still on his 221 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 5: honeymoon period, and I think the conference really wants to 222 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 5: give Mike a victory, and so maybe handing him a 223 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 5: victory on funding the government on the seventeenth of November, 224 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 5: after we just went through how many three and a 225 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 5: half weeks of basically inaction in the House while the 226 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 5: clock was ticking, I think there is a I think 227 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 5: there's a groundswell of support. How much so don't know, 228 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 5: but I think there is support for giving Mike some 229 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 5: leeway and so whatever he does come up with in 230 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 5: terms of a solution before the seventeenth of November, I 231 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 5: think he has a reasonable chance of making that, making 232 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 5: getting that across the finish line. 233 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 3: And Congressman, we only have a minute or so left. 234 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,719 Speaker 3: But I do want to ask specifically about your Appropriations Bill, 235 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 3: the Financial Services Bill, especially because I know pulling back 236 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 3: old IRS funds that were included in the Inflation Reduction 237 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 3: Act seems to be a big priority for House Republicans. 238 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,719 Speaker 3: I'm curious how you see it when you eventually have 239 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 3: to compromise with the Senate on a funding package. Is 240 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 3: the irs recisions a red line for Republicans or how 241 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 3: high a priority will that be to. 242 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 5: Be determined, But you're right, we use some of the 243 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:34,719 Speaker 5: money from the Inflation Reduction Act as a pay for, 244 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,719 Speaker 5: if you will, a recision like that in order to 245 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 5: be able to soften the blow on some of the 246 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 5: cuts that we're taking. That I've said repeatedly at the 247 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 5: end of the day, the Senates marked its bills to 248 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 5: a certain level Senator Haggarty and in his counterpartner, Senate, 249 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 5: and then we're marking ours to a certain level. They 250 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 5: will be different. Our priorities are different, and we will 251 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 5: have to reconcile those. But as I said yesterday in 252 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 5: the Rules Committee, we do need to get a bill 253 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 5: across the floor so we can go to conference, and 254 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 5: that means that we're going to have to maybe accept 255 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 5: some things we may not like, whether it's the FBI 256 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 5: issue or you know, maybe the reproductive health issue. In 257 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 5: the District of Columbia, we got some members that are 258 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 5: concerned about that, but you know, at the end of 259 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 5: the day, we need to be able to reconcile our differences, 260 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 5: get a conference report, get this stuff signed in the law, 261 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 5: and then move on because it won't be long before 262 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 5: we're into the calendar year of twenty four and needing 263 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 5: to be concentrating on FY twenty five. But we're not 264 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 5: there yet. 265 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us. Congressmen, We really 266 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 2: appreciate hearing your insights on this matter. That's Congressman Steve Willmack, 267 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: Republican from Arkansas coming up next. We're going to be 268 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 2: talking about not only about the spending, but also about 269 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 2: today's election day. Did you remember, We're going to be 270 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 2: talking about all the issues that are up that may 271 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 2: provide a roadmap for what's going to happen in twenty 272 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 2: twenty four, So with us that's coming up on Bloomberg 273 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: Radio right out now. 274 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 275 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 276 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 277 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 278 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: flagship New York station just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 279 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 2: Joining us are Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis and Democratic 280 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: strategist Almater. So, Rick, tell us what you thought about 281 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 2: sort of. I thought it was very refreshing to hear 282 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 2: the congressman talk about how they're not doing it the 283 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: way you're supposed to do it. 284 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, well done, guys. I thought that was really an 285 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 7: illuminating and informational conversation, sort of cuts through all the 286 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 7: weeds and smoke that exists in the caucus and in 287 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 7: the Congress and says, here's what we got to do. 288 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 7: It's very simple, and from the perspective of an appropriator 289 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 7: whose job it is to fund the government. And he 290 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 7: of course starts out by reminding everybody that, you know, 291 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 7: the fiscal year ended about a month and a half ago, 292 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 7: and so we are way behind on schedule, you know. 293 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 7: I thought he also shed some interesting light on this 294 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 7: notion of a laddered cr and these two sort of deadlines, 295 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 7: you know, one that we're hearing about in December and 296 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 7: one in January. 297 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 6: And and he said. 298 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 7: Something that I thought was interesting about how those would 299 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: be potentially like omnibus bills that would be packaged up 300 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 7: together to meet those two deadlines, depending upon you know, 301 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 7: the agencies that they were covering. And gosh, that sounds complicated. 302 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 7: I know it's coming out of the you know Andy Harrison, 303 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 7: another appropriator who you know, has come up with this idea, 304 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 7: But I honestly could not see that flying in the 305 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 7: House of Representatives or in the Senate. So yeah, lots 306 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 7: to chew on for the next ten days while we 307 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 7: wait and see the government potentially shut down. 308 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 3: Well, I'm I'm curious also based on what the Congressman 309 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 3: said about these conversations about a stopgap measure to avoid 310 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 3: a shutdown and what could and couldn't get tied to it. 311 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 3: When I talk to senators, they seem to think that 312 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 3: this is their chance to get Ukraine Aid passed, tying 313 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 3: it to the stopgap measure, do everything in one big 314 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 3: package al. When Congressman Congressman Womack says, let's just do 315 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 3: a clean cr get to the supplemental spending stuff later, 316 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 3: what does that mean practically for the state of congressional 317 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 3: discussions around Ukraine Aid in particular. 318 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,679 Speaker 8: Well, look, I mean the House has been consistent on 319 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 8: the Republican side in terms of not being as supportive 320 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 8: of a to Ukraine as both Democrats and Republicans in 321 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 8: the Senate and the administration. And that's a problem. It's 322 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 8: a problem because we don't have a solution to a 323 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 8: funding crisis that's going to escalate in a week and 324 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 8: a day. And so while I agree that your interview 325 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 8: with Connors and Womack was good, what I didn't hear 326 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 8: was how is this going to be solved. I heard 327 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 8: a lot of platitudes about what you shouldn't do at 328 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 8: home and how rational people ought to act. But the 329 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 8: bottom line is that the House is engaging in a 330 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 8: risky game here and is not really operating in a 331 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 8: reality that politically exists, and that reality is that Ukraine 332 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 8: Aid is going to be funded at some point in 333 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 8: the next several months, whether they like it or not. 334 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 2: So, Rick, we heard him talk about meeting with Senator 335 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 2: Susan Collins last night, and you know, seem to be 336 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 2: open to dealing with the Senate on this. I mean, 337 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 2: how do much do you think that his viewpoint is 338 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 2: different from the other House Republicans. 339 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say a lot different, June. I mean, 340 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 7: appropriators always sort of get along, right the Senate, both 341 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:02,479 Speaker 7: Republican and Democratic readership in the in the in the Senate, 342 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 7: and and the same in the House in the Appropriations Committee. 343 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 7: You know, they're they're they're simple guys. They just deal 344 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 7: with numbers. Uh They they they get these numbers, you know, 345 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 7: from a from a caucus or or a party that 346 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,199 Speaker 7: is in control, and then they apply those across the 347 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 7: boards and and there they are the classic being counters. 348 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 7: And in all that, as outpoints out, is a bunch 349 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 7: of policies, you know that some get you know, plussed 350 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 7: up and given more money, and some get cut. Uh 351 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 7: and and and frankly, the Senate, you know, they've they've 352 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 7: sort of been chugging away. They're still behind too, but 353 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 7: but they've been chugging away at their appropriations bills in 354 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,239 Speaker 7: a very bipartisan fashion. Uh and and and frankly, if 355 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 7: you look inside the Appropriations Committee of the House, it's 356 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,959 Speaker 7: pretty bipartisan too as far as what their markups are. 357 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 7: It's just they can't get things out of committees and 358 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 7: they can't get things in the floor action. So they're 359 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 7: going to abdicate to the Senate, you know, procedurally, because 360 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 7: the Senate is just going to move on, and the 361 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 7: sooner or later you're going to wake up and realize, well, 362 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 7: how did the Senate get ahead of us on all 363 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 7: this stuff? How did they wind up getting the advantage 364 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 7: of dictating terms which includes Ukraine funding. Well, it's because 365 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 7: the House just didn't do enough quick enough, and that's 366 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 7: you could almost see that train wreck coming. 367 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 3: Well, if I could provide one little counterpoint, I don't 368 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 3: necessarily disagree with your point Rick about the House abdicating 369 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 3: the potential advantage they have by not moving so fast. 370 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 3: But the honeymoon period that the Congressman referenced with Mike 371 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 3: Johnson as the new speaker seems relevant. They have passed 372 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 3: a couple bills since he was elected speaker. It sounds 373 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 3: like maybe there's not really an appetite to push for 374 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,199 Speaker 3: a shutdown. Al I'm curious if you really buy it 375 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 3: that there is this honeymoon period in which the House 376 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 3: Republican conference can rally behind their new speaker and there 377 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 3: won't be quite as much chaos because of that. 378 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 8: I mean, the problem they face is that there's such 379 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 8: a small margin for error. And I mean, yeah, I 380 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 8: guess he's in a honeymoon period. But Historically, speaking speakers 381 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 8: didn't typically have honeymoon periods of a week or two 382 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,199 Speaker 8: or three weeks. They were speakers for years and years. 383 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 8: What just happened with Kevin McCarthy was unprecedented in our 384 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 8: nation's history, and so he may have a honeymoon period, 385 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 8: but it's not gonna last long, and those folks like 386 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 8: Matt Gates and others who pulled McCarthy out of his 387 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 8: office and shoved him into the ranks of the rank 388 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 8: and file will agitate again at some point soon. I 389 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 8: do think, however, that there will be a continuing resolution 390 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 8: and we're unlikely to have a shutdown of any significant length, 391 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 8: if at all. But then there'll be a fight next year. 392 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 8: In April, there will be one percent cuts unless there 393 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 8: is an agreement on appropriation. And again back to my 394 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 8: comment about fantasy versus reality, the House Republicans, led by 395 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 8: Speaker McCarthy, negotiated a spending that is not what they 396 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 8: are now insisting on. And so if they insist on 397 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 8: a number that was not negotiated to and say we 398 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 8: need one percent cuts, we're going to have a problem. 399 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 8: And Democrats won't mind to pick that battle in an 400 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 8: election year. 401 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 2: What role do you think Democrats will play in these negotiations. 402 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 8: I think we'll do what we always do, which point 403 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 8: it is to point out if these cuts were put 404 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 8: into place, which and we will argue that Republicans favor 405 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 8: these cuts. Here are the people who will be hurt. 406 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 8: People who get food stamps, people who are dependent on SNAP, 407 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 8: which is a food program, people who are dependent on 408 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 8: the government for healthcare or for social Security, or perhaps 409 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 8: people who care about our national parks, or perhaps people 410 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 8: who care about government employees being paid. We'll have a 411 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 8: whole litany of examples that will be harmed adversely impacted 412 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 8: if these across the board sequester cuts go into place, 413 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 8: and then if Republicans play the game the way they 414 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 8: often do, there'll be a shutdown, which will then lead 415 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 8: to more examples of harm and disadvantaging people across America. 416 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 8: And it's not a winning game for them. I get 417 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 8: why the conservative wing wants to do what they want 418 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 8: to do, but ultimately, politically this always seems to benefit us. 419 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,880 Speaker 3: Right Rick, real quick before we go, do you see 420 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 3: this getting dragged out in what a full year cr 421 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 3: going to April? What's the actual timeline do you think. 422 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 7: Well, That's the funny part is that nobody, even Republicans, 423 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 7: don't like full your CRS because then their favorite programs 424 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 7: don't get funded. So that does tend to be a problem, 425 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 7: especially the military budgets, you know, the Department of Defense, 426 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 7: and so I don't see that happening. I think that 427 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 7: they'll come to some kind of a deal. 428 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 1: But Al's right. 429 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 7: I mean, like, you know, they got to come to 430 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 7: grips with the fact that they already cut a deal 431 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,399 Speaker 7: on the top line numbers, and it sounded like Steve 432 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 7: Omack earlier wasn't alluding to the fact that they were 433 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 7: going to apply a cut on top of that. But 434 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 7: of course, you know, you never know, right, I mean, 435 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 7: you've got the crazy eights, the people who unseated Kevin 436 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 7: McCarthy who are still there, and we're going to see 437 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 7: what kind of honeymoon they give to the news speaker. 438 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 7: But I don't think we've heard the last chapter of 439 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 7: discord within the House Republicans at this stage. 440 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 2: We'll have more with our panel, our politics panel with 441 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 2: Bloomberg contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist Al Mater, and 442 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 2: you're going to be talking about election day whatsaw on 443 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 2: the ballot and what it means for twenty twenty four. 444 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us 445 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 446 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. We're listening on 447 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 448 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 2: Rick. In Ohio, abortion is actually on the ballot and 449 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 2: voters could put abortion rights in the state constitution. But 450 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 2: while abortion may not be on the ballot in others states, 451 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 2: it's very much part of campaigns and states like Virginia 452 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 2: and Kentucky. So what will the results today tell us 453 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 2: about the strength of that issue in twenty twenty four. 454 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I think you could wind up with three 455 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 7: different scenarios, right, I mean, abortion supporters could win out, 456 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 7: you know, and so they win the initiative in Ohio 457 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 7: and the support of candidates they're backing, as you said, 458 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,640 Speaker 7: in places like Kentucky and Virginia. Virginia of course very 459 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 7: close to determine whether or not the Senate and the 460 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 7: House are in Republican or Democratic hands, and of course 461 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 7: that would then indicate a willingness or not of the 462 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 7: legislature to support Governor Younkin's views of putting some limits 463 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 7: on abortion that currently don't exist in Virginia. So it's 464 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,919 Speaker 7: a big it's a big task now. The other option 465 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 7: is also available where Republicans and abortion opponents went out, 466 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 7: and of course that would take a lot of win 467 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 7: going into the twenty twenty four election for Democrats who 468 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 7: hope to use abortion again in that election is a 469 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 7: means of getting people elected. Then of course the third 470 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 7: option is just a mixed bag, right. All these states 471 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 7: kind of do a different thing, and there's not a 472 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 7: clear path. And I would actually expect that to be 473 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 7: the most likely option only because I don't think there's 474 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,199 Speaker 7: the intensity with the vote right now. It's certainly not 475 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 7: seeing it in the polls that would indicate that you 476 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:39,159 Speaker 7: have that driver, you know, post Supreme Court decision of 477 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 7: two years ago, going into the twenty twenty elections, you 478 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 7: know where you had enormous energy and turnout by certain 479 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 7: groups that were supportive of abortion. Just don't see that 480 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,680 Speaker 7: happening right now in the polls, but will know tomorrow. 481 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 3: All from a Democrats perspective, do you think that Democrats 482 00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 3: are going to be looking at the Ohio results of 483 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 3: this ballot initiative and using that to any degree to 484 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 3: decide how much to emphasize abortion access in twenty twenty four. 485 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 8: I do what's interesting about the Ohio referendum or vote 486 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 8: is that this is the first initiative in which Democrats 487 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 8: are pursuing a constitutional right. All of the energy that 488 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 8: Rick was referring to in the twenty twenty two election 489 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 8: came in opposition to concerns that Republicans wanted to restrict 490 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 8: abortions to either no opportunity at all or essentially in 491 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 8: fact no opportunity at all with draconian restrictions up to 492 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 8: six weeks. In Ohio, the vote is on a constitutionally 493 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 8: protected right. So that's an affirmative vote. And I'm curious 494 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:52,680 Speaker 8: to see how far the movement goes. But I will 495 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 8: say it's crafted to reflect the law predobs and should 496 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 8: it pass, Ohio will essentially have a law that reflected 497 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 8: the law under Roe v. Wade, And so I think 498 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 8: it has a decent chance in passing. And I would 499 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 8: note in the Virginia races, where Governor Younkin is trying 500 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 8: to flip the Senate and gain a Republican majority, he 501 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 8: may have honed in on what is, in my opinion, 502 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 8: the best political position for Republicans, which is to support 503 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 8: a fifteen week ban, which is in essence what I 504 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 8: think Chief Justice Roberts was trying to do when the 505 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 8: Dobbs decision was reached. And perhaps, and this is not 506 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 8: conventional wisdom, but perhaps a Republican clerk or Justice office 507 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 8: released the draft decision because they were trying to stop that, 508 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 8: and they ultimately voted six to three for a more restrictive, 509 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 8: restrictive outcome. 510 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,520 Speaker 2: A lot of legal scholars think that that's what happened, 511 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 2: that it was a Republican who leaked that. So let's 512 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 2: there are a few important governor's races in the South. 513 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 2: In Kentucky, Governor Andy Basheer, one of the few remaining 514 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 2: democratic red state governors, is running for a second term 515 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 2: against Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who's a Trump 516 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 2: back conservative and though not explicitly on the ballot, abortion 517 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 2: has featured prominently in the campaign. So Rick, can a 518 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 2: popular governor overcome the national negative trends on Biden in 519 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 2: a state that Trump won by twenty six points. 520 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say it would really be amazing if 521 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 7: he can do that because, in addition to that big 522 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 7: Trump win in the state of Kentucky, and obviously every 523 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 7: other statewide elected official is a Republican, we are in 524 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 7: a period of time where that just doesn't exist. 525 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 8: Anywhere in the United States anymore. 526 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 7: They're only five states now where there are mixed statewide 527 00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 7: elected officials from one party and the other. I mean, 528 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 7: we used to have that normal in twenty twenty five 529 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 7: states where maybe two of the senators were from different parties, 530 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 7: or the governor was a different party like this case, 531 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 7: and the senators were from another party. Those we've turned 532 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 7: into such a polarized country that right now, I mean, 533 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 7: if you have a governor and two senators and a 534 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 7: majority of your delegation is usually in one party, and 535 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 7: that then translates into state legislatures. All politics is national now. 536 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 7: And so if Governor Basher can avoid that, he'll he'll 537 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 7: prove the negative in a way that I just think 538 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 7: is very hard to predict, and more likely the norm 539 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 7: takes hold, and that is that you know, it gets 540 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 7: rationalized back to being all state wide elected officials in Kentucky, 541 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 7: You're going to be Republican. 542 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 3: Al real quick before we go. I do want to 543 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 3: follow on Kentucky. Andy Basheer looks competitive, surprisingly competitive for 544 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 3: a Democrat in Kentucky. How much does the Basher name 545 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 3: help him? His dad was governor. I'm wondering if he's 546 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 3: an exception to the rule because of such a strong 547 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 3: identification with the Sheer name there. 548 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 8: I think that's right, and I think he's I mean, 549 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 8: Pauline shows this. He's very popular in Kentucky, which means 550 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 8: he must be doing something right as the incumbent governor, 551 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 8: and so generally speaking, it would be tough for him, 552 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,560 Speaker 8: but he's not on the ballot next year, when he'd 553 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 8: be competing against the Republican nominee at the top of 554 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 8: the ticket, and most if you were a betting man, 555 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 8: and I am, I would say that he slightly favored 556 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 8: to win, and it would be remarkable in a sense, 557 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 8: but also not surprising because he's delivered results for Kentuckians 558 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 8: and he's immensely popular. 559 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 2: As I said, well, thank you both. That's Bloomberg Politics 560 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 2: contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist Al Matter. We will 561 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 2: see if any of these predictions come true. 562 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound on podcast Catch the 563 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 564 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg, and the Bloomberg Business App. You 565 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 566 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 567 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 9: Jack, Nice to see you. Thanks for stepping into Joe's 568 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 9: shoes today. And it's election day. Granted, it's twenty twenty 569 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,760 Speaker 9: three election day, which is maybe not as big of 570 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 9: a deal as the election day to come a year 571 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 9: from now, but this still could tell us a lot 572 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 9: about what that election is going to look like. 573 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 10: What races do you have your eye on? 574 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 3: You know, I am skeptical about Bellweather races from an 575 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 3: off year to an on year. I don't know that 576 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 3: the Virginia results means something for the next year's Virginia results. 577 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 3: But they do mean something for Glen Youngkin. Yeah, probably 578 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 3: mean something for his fundraising ability, whether he's seen as 579 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 3: somebody who can lead a party. You can tell him 580 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 3: kind of getting toward a twenty twenty eight look ahead 581 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 3: as much as anything else. There are a lot of 582 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 3: interesting races, but in general, I am very curious how 583 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 3: we start to talk about Glen youngkin in a couple days. 584 00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 9: Yeah, I am as well, especially because there's a lot 585 00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 9: of big money donors who have been pushing for him 586 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,040 Speaker 9: to pursue the presidency. But of course a lot of 587 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,080 Speaker 9: that may depend on how he and his party fair 588 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 9: in the Virginia elections today. Remember, the Democrats currently control 589 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 9: the state Senate, Republicans have control of the House of Delegates, 590 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 9: but it's all up for grabs today, so we'll see 591 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 9: if they can cement Republican control up the legislature or not. 592 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 9: And we want to add a voice to this conversation now. 593 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 9: I'm very pleased to say joining us is the former 594 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 9: governor of Virginia, also a Republican, Jim Gilmore. He also 595 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 9: served as the US ambassador to the Organization for Security 596 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 9: and Cooperation in Europe and was the chair of the 597 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 9: RNC for a brief period of time. So, Governor, thank 598 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 9: you very much for joining us on the program today. 599 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 9: How do you think this shakes out in Virginia? You 600 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 9: think the Republicans can do it? 601 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 11: Well, yes, we don't know yet because this is a 602 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 11: brand new election. This is right after a redistricting, so 603 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 11: all the districts are scrambled up. The candidates are relatively new, 604 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 11: some of them, so we just don't know how this 605 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 11: is going to work out yet. The issues, of course, 606 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,160 Speaker 11: have been fully argued out for quite a long time. 607 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,960 Speaker 11: Governor Yunkin has done a significant amount of fundraising and 608 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 11: has been very vigorous in his support of the Republican tickets. 609 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,879 Speaker 11: But on the other hand, the Democrats nationally, I think, 610 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,480 Speaker 11: have poured a tremendous amount of money. The environmental community, 611 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 11: particularly the business leaders in the environmental community, have poured 612 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 11: a ton of money in for the Democrats. So we 613 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 11: just don't know yet how this is going to shake out. 614 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:31,400 Speaker 3: Tonight, Governor, when you mentioned the issues have been argued, 615 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:36,280 Speaker 3: some election cycles are very much focused on an issue. 616 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 3: We've had election cycles that felt like they were on 617 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 3: the Dobbs ruling. We've had Obamacare election cycles. Is there 618 00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 3: an issue that Virginians feel they are effectively voting on 619 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 3: or is it less clear this time? 620 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 8: No. 621 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:54,239 Speaker 11: I think it's been very widely publicized on purchase television advertising, 622 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 11: and the principal issue has been abortion. The Democrats have 623 00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,320 Speaker 11: decided that abortion is their strong suit. They're throwing a 624 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 11: lot of television commercials against the Republican candidates claiming that 625 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,800 Speaker 11: they want to ban abortion, which is factually not true, 626 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:13,319 Speaker 11: but nonetheless you put it on radio and TV. The 627 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,760 Speaker 11: Republicans are actually chose to meet that argument, and instead 628 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 11: of avoiding the abortion issue, they are actually addressing it 629 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 11: and talking about the governor's proposal to ban abortions after 630 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 11: fifteen weeks with reasonable exceptions. But that is what has 631 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 11: been argued out now. I would say that the people 632 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 11: of Virginia are very concerned about high inflation. The costs 633 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 11: of the grocery store, the costs of gasoline are very 634 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 11: significant and I think has led to some discontent in Virginia, 635 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 11: but that has not been the primary debate within these elections. 636 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 9: Well, and of course we talk about these elections because 637 00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 9: they will have significance for the state. But to what 638 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 9: Jack was discussing earlier, this potentially could be of national 639 00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:01,240 Speaker 9: significance if indeed it puts a momentum behind Governor Glen Youngkin. 640 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,120 Speaker 9: If you were to ever pursue higher office, especially as 641 00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 9: you yourself went from being governor of Virginia to multiple 642 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,240 Speaker 9: times entering the presidential race, do you see a path 643 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 9: for Glen Youngkin to do the same. 644 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 11: Well, certainly, while I was not nominated during these Trump years, 645 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 11: I'm very proud that I entered, and I have no 646 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 11: regrets for entering. It's a wonderful thing to run nationally 647 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,399 Speaker 11: and get to know everybody across the entire country when 648 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,799 Speaker 11: you're a candidate. Clint Yunkin has a lot of advantages. 649 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 11: The biggest advantage of courses. He's a prominent governor of 650 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,600 Speaker 11: the state of Virginia, and he's quite wealthy, and he 651 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,800 Speaker 11: has a lot of financial backing, and he has a message, 652 00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,320 Speaker 11: and his message they got him elected, and his message 653 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,839 Speaker 11: remains parental rights, particularly in education. I think people are 654 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:50,239 Speaker 11: very concerned about the Democrats' efforts to remake education, to 655 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,360 Speaker 11: remake the cultural issues there in the United States. Parents 656 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,359 Speaker 11: are just want their kids to be educated, and they've 657 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,160 Speaker 11: basically had a sort of a rebellion in Virginia against 658 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 11: the far have to approach to education, and that's why 659 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,480 Speaker 11: Glenn got elected. So all of these things are very current. 660 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 11: I don't know whether or not he's in a position 661 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:08,960 Speaker 11: to go in twenty four or not. 662 00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 1: He'll have to. 663 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 11: Make that decision, but he is an attractive, prominent man 664 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,720 Speaker 11: and could still run in twenty eight Governor. 665 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,720 Speaker 3: I know I've said I'm a little skeptical that twenty 666 00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 3: twenty three tells us something about what happens in twenty 667 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 3: twenty four. But I am curious if you see this 668 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:27,600 Speaker 3: as a bell weather for congressional races. Should members of 669 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,880 Speaker 3: Congress be looking at the map that comes out of 670 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 3: these election results? Do we have anything to learn from 671 00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,719 Speaker 3: the results that come out looking forward to twenty twenty. 672 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 11: Four, Jack, I think you learned something every year. But 673 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 11: politics in Virginia, we're an unusual state and we have 674 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:46,040 Speaker 11: an election every year. There's historical grounds and reasons for that. 675 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,759 Speaker 11: But we elect somebody either at the federal level or 676 00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,600 Speaker 11: the state level every year, either the governor or the 677 00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 11: presidency or just the legislature like we have this year. 678 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,840 Speaker 11: And yes, I think you learn a lot naturally. Politics 679 00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,239 Speaker 11: and issues shift in the United States of America year 680 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,440 Speaker 11: to year. I myself have been devoting my attention to 681 00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,640 Speaker 11: foreign policy as the former ambassador, and particularly the Ukraine issue. 682 00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,400 Speaker 11: In fact, I sent a letter yesterday to the members 683 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 11: of the Republican members of the House of Representatives here 684 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,240 Speaker 11: in Virginia insisting that they be sure that they vote 685 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,239 Speaker 11: for the funding of Ukraine. So I'm doing that, and 686 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,640 Speaker 11: that issue may shift into the federal elections next year. 687 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,120 Speaker 11: In fact, I think it would. The foreign policy is 688 00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,440 Speaker 11: certainly emerging, between the Ukraine issue, which I think is 689 00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,359 Speaker 11: the hinge of the future, and the Israeli issue, which 690 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,240 Speaker 11: of course we are all very engaged in. So foreign 691 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,439 Speaker 11: policy is emerging, but it won't be the only thing 692 00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,840 Speaker 11: next year, either in the House races or in the 693 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:39,800 Speaker 11: presidential races. 694 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 9: Well to that point, Governor, when you were talking about 695 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,359 Speaker 9: really what you think is on Virginian's minds as they 696 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,600 Speaker 9: head to the polls today, you mentioned two things, really 697 00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:51,960 Speaker 9: infleetion and abortion, both of which seem like internal facing 698 00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 9: issues to me, more domestic affairs than international. Do you 699 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 9: really think that's going to change in a material way 700 00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,759 Speaker 9: in the span of a year, considering there may be 701 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,040 Speaker 9: a little bit more fatigue setting in in terms of 702 00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 9: some of those conflicts you just mentioned. 703 00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,000 Speaker 11: This is the most disrupted time I have ever seen 704 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,760 Speaker 11: in my life in American politics. I've never seen anything 705 00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,799 Speaker 11: quite like this. So you can't predict what's going to happen, 706 00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:14,759 Speaker 11: but I'll do my best. 707 00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:15,160 Speaker 1: I can. 708 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,880 Speaker 11: I think that the issue of abortion is going to 709 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 11: continue to be a debate because I think the Democrats 710 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,120 Speaker 11: want it to be a debate and they want that 711 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,799 Speaker 11: to be the principal issue. I think inflation remains a problem. 712 00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,480 Speaker 11: There's no doubt that the people of the United States 713 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,759 Speaker 11: and the people in Virginia are blaming President Biden correctly 714 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 11: in my view, for this inflation that they're seeing at 715 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,799 Speaker 11: the grocery store, in the gas pump. And I think 716 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,040 Speaker 11: the pocketbook issues are always an issue, but I insist 717 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,920 Speaker 11: to you that the foreign policy issues, the issues of 718 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,879 Speaker 11: warrant piece are emerging very strongly. So we always say, 719 00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 11: you know that foreign policy and national security is never 720 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,160 Speaker 11: an issue in elections until it is, and I think 721 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,560 Speaker 11: maybe it is growing that way right now. 722 00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,799 Speaker 3: I've got to follow up on your point on Ukraine AID, 723 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:06,480 Speaker 3: in particular, as I speak to members of Congress, I 724 00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,000 Speaker 3: see a big difference between Republicans in the House and 725 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,239 Speaker 3: Senate on how they want to move forward or if 726 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 3: they want to move forward with Ukraine AID. There's a 727 00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:19,600 Speaker 3: really interesting intra party divide there, especially given your foreign 728 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,000 Speaker 3: policy expertise in your time as RNC chairman, I have 729 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,360 Speaker 3: to just ask you your view on a simple question 730 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,920 Speaker 3: of what is the Republican position on Ukraine AID. 731 00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:34,719 Speaker 11: Right now, the Republican Party is divided, but all the 732 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:39,120 Speaker 11: noise and attention is being given to the anti Ukraine group. 733 00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,600 Speaker 11: But I believe they are a vocal minority. The majority 734 00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:46,239 Speaker 11: of the Republican Party remains committed to Reagan type of 735 00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:51,560 Speaker 11: foreign policy and national security. The Democrats traditionally have not 736 00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,760 Speaker 11: been that way, but they are that way now because 737 00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 11: they're so supportive of President Biden. But my view is 738 00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,480 Speaker 11: that President Biden needs to do a great deal more. 739 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,160 Speaker 11: He's done too little, too late, and I think that 740 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,480 Speaker 11: there's an aggressive need to fund the Ukrainian war. As 741 00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:09,640 Speaker 11: a matter of fact, damage has already been done by 742 00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:11,879 Speaker 11: this debate in the United States because it makes our 743 00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 11: allies and our allies less certain, and our adversary is 744 00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:20,440 Speaker 11: more enthusiastic because of this division. But I believe that 745 00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,480 Speaker 11: at the end of the day, the Republican Party will 746 00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:25,480 Speaker 11: in a strong majority vote for the support of Ukraine. 747 00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:30,200 Speaker 3: Governor. I should ask about timing. I heard from Senator 748 00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,759 Speaker 3: Chris Murphy yesterday, who's involved in these negotiations, that they 749 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:37,680 Speaker 3: really want Ukraine AID to go on a funding package 750 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,840 Speaker 3: that has to happen by November seventeenth. There are so 751 00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,960 Speaker 3: many convoluted issues they're negotiating tied to Ukraine. How much 752 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,879 Speaker 3: longer can Congress wait to send additional aid before it 753 00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,000 Speaker 3: really really undermines Ukraine. 754 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,120 Speaker 11: I don't think that the undermining Ukraine financially is imminent. 755 00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,640 Speaker 11: I think that it's most important about the messaging. 756 00:41:59,200 --> 00:41:59,720 Speaker 1: Right now. 757 00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 11: Vladimir Putin and his allies are looking to American resolve. 758 00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,920 Speaker 11: They want to see whether Americans will quit. They want 759 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,600 Speaker 11: to see whether Americans will come either bored or frustrated 760 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:14,520 Speaker 11: or distracted by other issues, particularly the Israeli war. That's 761 00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,919 Speaker 11: what they're looking for, to see whether American resolve will 762 00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:20,680 Speaker 11: crack if America stays solid, and I believe they should, 763 00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:23,000 Speaker 11: and my letter which went to the Virginia congressman will 764 00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,640 Speaker 11: of course be published nationally. Also, I believe that as 765 00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,919 Speaker 11: long as we stay resolved, we're going to be fined 766 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:33,960 Speaker 11: in Europe and probably fine in Israel. But these elections 767 00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,840 Speaker 11: right now, of course, in Virginia, turning on domestic issues, 768 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,920 Speaker 11: you would expect that this is a state legislature. But 769 00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,840 Speaker 11: next year, when the Congress is up and the president 770 00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,120 Speaker 11: is up, then I think you'll see all kinds of 771 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:51,560 Speaker 11: issues education, inflation, jobs, and foreign policy and war and peace. 772 00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:53,240 Speaker 11: I think all of that will be on the agenda 773 00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:53,879 Speaker 11: for next year. 774 00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,480 Speaker 9: Okay, so, Governor, let's talk more about that presidential race, 775 00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,720 Speaker 9: specifically the Republican primary race, because all of our attention 776 00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,680 Speaker 9: will be on Miami tomorrow the third primary debate, in 777 00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,640 Speaker 9: which once again the front runner, former President Donald Trump, 778 00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,920 Speaker 9: will not be making an appearance. And especially considering your 779 00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,920 Speaker 9: former position as chair of the RNC, why are we 780 00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,240 Speaker 9: still doing these if he's not showing up, what's the point. 781 00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,239 Speaker 11: Well, they're in exposure of the other candidates, and I 782 00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:23,200 Speaker 11: think that what's going on is all is somewhat unpredictable. 783 00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,040 Speaker 11: I think actually there's a lot of truths that you 784 00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,920 Speaker 11: can figure out here. In my opinion. Number one, President 785 00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,120 Speaker 11: Trump is the old, far and away the choice of 786 00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,359 Speaker 11: the Republican Party right now, and you can't change that. 787 00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:39,800 Speaker 11: All the polls are perfectly consistent, even into the states. 788 00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:40,600 Speaker 1: They're consistent. 789 00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,680 Speaker 11: Now. It doesn't mean that President Trump is necessarily going 790 00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,680 Speaker 11: to win. It's pretty much close or attie. But President 791 00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:50,000 Speaker 11: Trump is showing winning in many of the swing states. 792 00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,680 Speaker 11: These debates, though give other candidates an opportunity to go 793 00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,840 Speaker 11: out there and expose what they believe is right, because, 794 00:43:56,880 --> 00:44:00,000 Speaker 11: after all, these races are quite unpredictable, and these attacks 795 00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:04,600 Speaker 11: on President Trump and the courts are unpredictable, so there's 796 00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,080 Speaker 11: there's still time to do these things. I might say. 797 00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,200 Speaker 11: I participated, I think in two or three of the 798 00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,080 Speaker 11: national debates, and there are great service to the people 799 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,600 Speaker 11: in the community because they give the public an opportunity 800 00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,279 Speaker 11: to take a feel for not only the candidates, but 801 00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,640 Speaker 11: for what topics they're addressing. So I think it's healthy 802 00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,000 Speaker 11: for the United States. I'm not sure that I agree 803 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,360 Speaker 11: with everything the RNC does or says right now, but 804 00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,200 Speaker 11: the debates people want to be on them because they 805 00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:30,560 Speaker 11: do give national exposure. 806 00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,279 Speaker 3: Does that mean that someone who does a good job 807 00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,440 Speaker 3: in these debates is the actual alternative to Trump? Do 808 00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:41,000 Speaker 3: you see a valid person competing with Trump? Or is 809 00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,040 Speaker 3: it exposure for future races, for a VP nomination or 810 00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:45,600 Speaker 3: something else. 811 00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,960 Speaker 11: Right now, there's no evidence that any of the other 812 00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:54,080 Speaker 11: candidates running for president are able to overcome President Trump, 813 00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:55,640 Speaker 11: and I think maybe there's something I need to say 814 00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:59,320 Speaker 11: to you about this. I watched the Democrats, particularly on 815 00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,759 Speaker 11: National Tell Division shows on the Sunday shows, and they 816 00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:05,279 Speaker 11: seem to be puzzled about Donald Trump. I think I 817 00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,600 Speaker 11: understand this, and what I understand is this, the far 818 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,320 Speaker 11: left in this country has taken over the Democratic Party 819 00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:16,840 Speaker 11: and is actually aggressively assaulting the society today on education issues, 820 00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:22,600 Speaker 11: on various and sundricultural issues in this country, and conservative 821 00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,240 Speaker 11: the Republican Party rank and file are frightened. They feel 822 00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:29,200 Speaker 11: attacked and as a result, they're going to choose a 823 00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,000 Speaker 11: leader who they think will fight for them, and that 824 00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:35,959 Speaker 11: person is Donald Trump. And I think that's what's going 825 00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,759 Speaker 11: on right now. If the Democrats were more mainstream, there 826 00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,080 Speaker 11: might never be a Donald Trump. But the Democrats are 827 00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,520 Speaker 11: not mainstream, all right. 828 00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,000 Speaker 9: We really appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us today. 829 00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,960 Speaker 9: That's former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, of course, also former 830 00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,440 Speaker 9: chair of the RNC and former US Ambassador to the 831 00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,840 Speaker 9: Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. We really appreciate 832 00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,920 Speaker 9: your time on this election day, and of course, before 833 00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:00,600 Speaker 9: we can get to twenty twenty four, Jack, we have 834 00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,160 Speaker 9: to get through today when it's not just Virginians heading 835 00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,080 Speaker 9: to the polls. Ohio abortions on the ballot. There's a 836 00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,080 Speaker 9: few gubernatorial races as well that could sun some pretty 837 00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,200 Speaker 9: strong signals on where exactly voters are. 838 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, especially with an eye on the national repercussions. I 839 00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,759 Speaker 3: am very interested in the Ohio results. It's not a 840 00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 3: true swing state right now, but the question of how 841 00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:25,360 Speaker 3: motivating abortion access is that will matter a lot in 842 00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:26,160 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. 843 00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:26,439 Speaker 5: Yeah. 844 00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,760 Speaker 9: Well, we see people showing up to vote on issue 845 00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,920 Speaker 9: one and the same way we saw turnout really driven 846 00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,760 Speaker 9: in the immediate aftermath of Roe versus Way. We certainly 847 00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:35,960 Speaker 9: saw that in the midterms last year, but we'll see 848 00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,520 Speaker 9: how much that remains as a force. We're going to 849 00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:40,759 Speaker 9: have much more coming up on this second hour of 850 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:42,520 Speaker 9: sound On, so make sure you stick with us. 851 00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:43,800 Speaker 10: This is Bloomberg. 852 00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 853 00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:52,360 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 854 00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,760 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 855 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,719 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 856 00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:02,800 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven. 857 00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:07,799 Speaker 9: And we're getting some news, not necessarily on what form. 858 00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,960 Speaker 9: The continuing resolution is going to take if one jack, 859 00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,960 Speaker 9: but instead from the Senate side about a supplemental. Senate 860 00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:17,360 Speaker 9: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell apparently talked to President Biden and 861 00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:22,080 Speaker 9: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about that yesterday and he says 862 00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,080 Speaker 9: that you need a credible border solution in that bill. 863 00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, So what they mean by credible is not just money. 864 00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:33,760 Speaker 3: The President asked Congress for more money for the Department 865 00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,200 Speaker 3: of Homeland Security for border needs, but the response from 866 00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,520 Speaker 3: Republicans has been if you want to get Ukraine money, politically, 867 00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:45,360 Speaker 3: you need to attach something quote unquote credible on the border. 868 00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,880 Speaker 3: And that means policy changes. That means restrictions on people's 869 00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,239 Speaker 3: ability to come in and stay in the US if 870 00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,920 Speaker 3: they're seeking asylum, effectively that kind of thing. So that 871 00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,120 Speaker 3: opens up a big can of worms, because it's not 872 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,360 Speaker 3: easy to do immigration reform and get into all of 873 00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,000 Speaker 3: those policies in a week and a half. And the 874 00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,640 Speaker 3: conversation is about tying that to a stop gap measure. 875 00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,239 Speaker 3: We don't know if the House will go along with that, 876 00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:12,319 Speaker 3: but as I said, opens up a big can of worms. Yeah, 877 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,320 Speaker 3: if they're trying to legislate on all of these issues. 878 00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:17,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, I would imagine just the bigger it gets, the 879 00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,359 Speaker 9: harder it gets, and we're quickly running out of time. 880 00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,480 Speaker 9: I also have to wonder, given that immigration reform in 881 00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:25,160 Speaker 9: the border is such a big topic on the hill, 882 00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:26,919 Speaker 9: if that really is something that is going to drive 883 00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:29,319 Speaker 9: voters when they're heading to the polls. We just had 884 00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,240 Speaker 9: a great conversation with the former governor of Virginia, Jim Gilmore, 885 00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,960 Speaker 9: who says he really thinks voters right now are voting 886 00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:38,400 Speaker 9: on abortion, and they're voting on the economy and on inflation. 887 00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:41,000 Speaker 9: And on that note, I was really struck by a 888 00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:45,560 Speaker 9: new survey from Ipsos and Yahoo Finance about the economy 889 00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:50,960 Speaker 9: and specifically President Biden's job with the economy. Seventeen percent 890 00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,479 Speaker 9: of those responding in the survey said policies have helped them. 891 00:48:54,840 --> 00:49:00,399 Speaker 9: Forty six percent said Biden's policies have hurt them. Looking 892 00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,320 Speaker 9: great for the man currently sitting in the Oval office, Jack. 893 00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:06,760 Speaker 3: It's looking rough. It makes sense why there are non 894 00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:11,239 Speaker 3: economy focused issues that Democrats are pushing hard for. And 895 00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,759 Speaker 3: they did have success in the twenty twenty two midterms 896 00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,799 Speaker 3: and in terms of not losing too many House seats 897 00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,080 Speaker 3: to Republicans in a tough year with a lot of 898 00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:23,240 Speaker 3: people running on abortion access and making that a big focus. 899 00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:24,680 Speaker 10: So it worked in twenty twenty two. 900 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,080 Speaker 9: The question is it going to work again today as 901 00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,480 Speaker 9: people hedge the polls and then again in twenty twenty four. 902 00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:31,239 Speaker 9: So let's get more on this now joining us as 903 00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:34,520 Speaker 9: Cliff Young, he's president of US Public Affairs at IPSOS. 904 00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:37,279 Speaker 9: So Cliff, just talk to us more about the data 905 00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:39,720 Speaker 9: you are seeing. How much trouble does it really spell 906 00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:43,880 Speaker 9: for Biden and potentially Democratic hopefuls and incumbents more broadly. 907 00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:46,880 Speaker 6: Well, we're still pretty far off from the election with 908 00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:48,320 Speaker 6: more than a year, right, and so we have to 909 00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:50,319 Speaker 6: take that, take that with a bit of grain of 910 00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,680 Speaker 6: salt any sort of data we see today. But that said, 911 00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:59,000 Speaker 6: Biden is a historically weak incumbent. We have him as 912 00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:02,400 Speaker 6: thirty nine percent of overrating, which is at the tipping point. 913 00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,759 Speaker 6: It's about forty percent. That's the tipping point for a 914 00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,239 Speaker 6: sitting president having better than a fifty to fifty chance 915 00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:11,000 Speaker 6: of winning the next election. We know that he's not 916 00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,239 Speaker 6: connecting with voters on the economy, and it is the economy, 917 00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,719 Speaker 6: the economy, the economy, and more specifically inflation, and to 918 00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,520 Speaker 6: date the administration has not been able to make that 919 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:27,000 Speaker 6: bridge that gap, make that connection, and really voters at 920 00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:31,120 Speaker 6: this point are really surly when it comes to the economy. 921 00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:36,440 Speaker 3: Cliff when you mention that mark of being under forty 922 00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:40,600 Speaker 3: percent for an incumbent and the bad news that is 923 00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:44,439 Speaker 3: for their chances of reelection. There is time, there's about 924 00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,799 Speaker 3: a year until election day. Is thirty nine percent so 925 00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:51,799 Speaker 3: low that historically that is very very bad news even 926 00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:53,799 Speaker 3: with a year left, or what can what should we 927 00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,160 Speaker 3: keep in mind with the runway that President Biden has 928 00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,879 Speaker 3: to try to slow the rate of inflation and win 929 00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:01,720 Speaker 3: people over on the economy. 930 00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,200 Speaker 6: Well, thirty nine percent is not a death sentence. It's 931 00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,600 Speaker 6: it's about forty nine percent chance of winning. So that's 932 00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:11,640 Speaker 6: not you're not out of the game, right. We have 933 00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:14,600 Speaker 6: a year. The economy could change, so the contextual variables 934 00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:18,279 Speaker 6: could change, driving up the numbers. And we know that 935 00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:22,600 Speaker 6: incumbents do pretty well during the campaigns. So what happens 936 00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,920 Speaker 6: ultimately is that the administration, in this case, Biden's administration, 937 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:30,120 Speaker 6: will hammer home the sort of accomplishments during the campaign 938 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:36,959 Speaker 6: communicate that. So typically approval ratings improve, you know, during 939 00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:40,080 Speaker 6: that period of the electoral cycle, but once again he's 940 00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:41,720 Speaker 6: not in a good place today. 941 00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, on the economy, especially as you've been outlining, Cliff, 942 00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,520 Speaker 9: what about some of these other issues that we were 943 00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:51,520 Speaker 9: just hearing from former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore. He thinks 944 00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,120 Speaker 9: Democrats are really trying to focus on maybe because of 945 00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:57,560 Speaker 9: the weakness on the economy, issue like abortion. Is that 946 00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:00,160 Speaker 9: going to be the same kind of galvanizing force that 947 00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:02,760 Speaker 9: it had been in the immediate aftermath or more immediate 948 00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:04,279 Speaker 9: aftermath of the overturning of Row. 949 00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:05,960 Speaker 10: What does your polling suggest. 950 00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:09,440 Speaker 6: Well, at the at the national level for president, I 951 00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,160 Speaker 6: think it's going to be the economy unless some other 952 00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:14,360 Speaker 6: issue comes to four. I think the down ballot races 953 00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:17,480 Speaker 6: and the state races and more local races, the abortion 954 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:22,319 Speaker 6: issue is going to be important in deciding outcomes. So 955 00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,960 Speaker 6: I do agree there. The other point I wanted to make, 956 00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:27,120 Speaker 6: and you made this point at the beginning about the border, 957 00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:32,160 Speaker 6: the number one issue among Republicans today is immigration, and 958 00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:36,200 Speaker 6: so while it might not galvanize Americans in general, it 959 00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:40,920 Speaker 6: definitely energizes the Republican base and makes a complete sense 960 00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:45,120 Speaker 6: the initiative to today in Congress to have that as 961 00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:49,120 Speaker 6: some sort of demand in any sort of any sort 962 00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:49,479 Speaker 6: of deal. 963 00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:52,879 Speaker 3: How how does that compare? As you said, it makes 964 00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,480 Speaker 3: sense to tie something on the border to Ukraine funding. 965 00:52:57,120 --> 00:53:00,880 Speaker 3: Is what do we know about the in the enthusiasm 966 00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:04,839 Speaker 3: of skeptics or opponents of Ukraine eight We talked to 967 00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,040 Speaker 3: Governor Gilmore about where exactly the Republican Party comes down 968 00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,440 Speaker 3: on Ukraine aid. It's a bit of a complicated answer, 969 00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,919 Speaker 3: but I mean, is that enough to win people over 970 00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,680 Speaker 3: or are Republicans really moving away from foreign aid to Ukraine. 971 00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:23,400 Speaker 6: Well, at this point, Americans in general are more isolationists 972 00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:27,440 Speaker 6: than they were a generation to go, and Republicans especially. 973 00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:31,320 Speaker 6: So that said, I wouldn't say it's a galvanizing issue. 974 00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:38,120 Speaker 6: Immigration in my mind among for Republicans is key, but 975 00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:42,480 Speaker 6: definitely on the margins. On the margins it is. You know, 976 00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:44,880 Speaker 6: it is a change, right, is a change relative to 977 00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:50,000 Speaker 6: a generation generation half ago. It goes towards the Israel 978 00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:53,680 Speaker 6: Israel conflict as well and Gaza. Now it's not much 979 00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:58,040 Speaker 6: as Republicans more Democrats, but the younger generation is less 980 00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,440 Speaker 6: interventionist than older generals. 981 00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,800 Speaker 9: So just to expand on the idea of public sentiment 982 00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:08,200 Speaker 9: around Israel and its war with Hamas. It feels like 983 00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,040 Speaker 9: there is more pressure, especially in certain portions of the 984 00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:16,120 Speaker 9: Democratic Party, for humanitarian considerations to begin trumping that of 985 00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:20,680 Speaker 9: Israel's objectives in trouncing Hamas. Is that reflected in public sentiment? 986 00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:24,440 Speaker 9: Is there a shift underway in terms of support for Israel? 987 00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, so in general, just Americans in general, there's about 988 00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:33,000 Speaker 6: eighty five eighty seven percent of Americans are in favor 989 00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:37,399 Speaker 6: of humanitarian aid and relief. So that's not something that 990 00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:41,359 Speaker 6: varies that much from party to party. I would say 991 00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:46,479 Speaker 6: there is a there is a pro Palestinian or maybe 992 00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:50,320 Speaker 6: more of an agnostic bent in the Democrat Party today, 993 00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:56,080 Speaker 6: and that's especially among younger voters. The younger generation has less, 994 00:54:56,120 --> 00:55:00,040 Speaker 6: i would say, linkage less relationship with the issues in 995 00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:03,720 Speaker 6: in the Middle East compared to a generation or two ago, 996 00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:08,560 Speaker 6: and that definitely is manifesting itself today in public opinion. 997 00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:11,240 Speaker 10: All right, really fascinating stuff. 998 00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,759 Speaker 9: We always appreciate you joining us and your insights and 999 00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,240 Speaker 9: your great data. Cliff Young, the President of US Public 1000 00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:18,719 Speaker 9: Affairs at episodes, thank you very much, and Jack. It 1001 00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,560 Speaker 9: just kind of returns us to this calculus. So if 1002 00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:23,879 Speaker 9: you're thinking about the mind of a voter, where really 1003 00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,680 Speaker 9: some of these internationally oriented issues are going to rank 1004 00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:28,359 Speaker 9: when they go to the ballot box and are thinking 1005 00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,600 Speaker 9: about what's going on at their kitchen table. 1006 00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I find it really interesting the point that 1007 00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,480 Speaker 3: the border is so much more of a motivating issue 1008 00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:40,439 Speaker 3: for conservatives that maybe this whole negotiation in Congress, where 1009 00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:42,600 Speaker 3: Republicans are saying, if we're going to do Ukraine, we 1010 00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,920 Speaker 3: need border stuff, isn't so much opposition to Ukraine but 1011 00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:48,759 Speaker 3: just an opportunity for them to get a win that 1012 00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,880 Speaker 3: their voters will help them on. I found that very 1013 00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:52,440 Speaker 3: very interesting. 1014 00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:54,680 Speaker 9: Yeah, maybe just a chance to use leverage while you 1015 00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:58,440 Speaker 9: have it right, because again the clock is sticking and 1016 00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:02,320 Speaker 9: day tick and louder and ticking faster again. Mitch McConnell, 1017 00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:04,840 Speaker 9: the Senate minority leader, says that there needs to be 1018 00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:08,359 Speaker 9: a credible border solution in a supplemental spending bill. We'll 1019 00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,880 Speaker 9: see if they can kind of coalesce around what exactly 1020 00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:11,719 Speaker 9: that solution is. 1021 00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. 1022 00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:18,320 Speaker 7: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 1023 00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,799 Speaker 7: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can 1024 00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,839 Speaker 7: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 1025 00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:24,600 Speaker 7: pm Eastern 1026 00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:28,400 Speaker 1: Time at Bloomberg dot com.