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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: bloom to Boston, Bloomberg twelve unders to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Countries is Exam Channel one nine and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Happen Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning everyone, This is Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keane, and our economic

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Speaker 1: indicators are brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When

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Speaker 1: it's time to change the conversation, talk with the broker dealer,

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Speaker 1: r I A that's ready to listen College six six

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Speaker 1: or six two or three six three eight, or visit

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth dot com to learn more. All the employment report

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Speaker 1: out and it's an astoundingly good one, Tom. The Canadians

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Speaker 1: have just reported there may pay rolls thirteen point eight

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Speaker 1: thousand new jobs created. The survey said they would only

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Speaker 1: get one point all of them, really staff of the

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Speaker 1: Toronto May Beliefs. So anyway, things may be getting a

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Speaker 1: little better in Canada. That's the indicator of the morning.

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Speaker 1: So far. We do get University of Michigan numbers here

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Speaker 1: in the US ten o'clock this morning, the surveys for

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Speaker 1: a reading that would be down from seven. That's gonna

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Speaker 1: be watching their inflation numbers, what what people think inflation

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Speaker 1: is going to be over the next few years. Joining

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Speaker 1: us right now to consider a clear conversation on your

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Speaker 1: investment horizon given what we've been talking about this morning,

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Speaker 1: is one s Ratner, we should say, by disclosure, assist

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Speaker 1: managing money for Michael Bloomberg and his team. Mr Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: is majority owner of Bloomberg LP, and of course it's

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Speaker 1: a radio station. But Steve Ratner has a lot of

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Speaker 1: experience and what to do and what not to do

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Speaker 1: in times like this. If you ran a horizon an

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Speaker 1: analysis of your bond portfolio today, if you were couraging

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Speaker 1: us courageous enough to own bonds and they are priced

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Speaker 1: to true perfection, low yields, high bond prices, how do

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Speaker 1: you hold them and retain ownership of them if you

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Speaker 1: just assume at some point you're gonna see higher yields.

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Speaker 1: Our approach is pretty simple. We don't own bonds for

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Speaker 1: exactly the reason you said we. We simply don't understand

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Speaker 1: why you would buy, say a fifty year UK guilt

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Speaker 1: and earn an interest rate less than what the Bank

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Speaker 1: of England says it wants inflation to be over the

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Speaker 1: next fifty years. Essentially, you have to be betting the

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Speaker 1: Bank in England somehow going to fail. Because they succeed,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna lose money, but we don't. You've only got

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Speaker 1: one bet. The bet is that your trading finger is

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Speaker 1: faster than the next guys when things start to turn,

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Speaker 1: because nobody's going to hold these things for fifty years

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Speaker 1: at that rate. Well, what I think, no, I think

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Speaker 1: you you could also be betting on is simply that

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Speaker 1: we're going into some kind of deflationary spiral and the

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Speaker 1: bankingng was not going to get inflation and interest rates

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Speaker 1: are gonna keep going lower and lower, and then the

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Speaker 1: price of the bonds is actually gonna go up. But

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Speaker 1: that's not a bet we would make, and so we

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Speaker 1: simply don't buy bonds period in any of these countries,

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Speaker 1: in any of these kinds of prices. What's your view

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Speaker 1: of the world right now in terms of what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen. There seems to be a lot of pessimism

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Speaker 1: creeping into the markets again this week. I think you

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Speaker 1: have to be respectful of markets, and I think when

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Speaker 1: you do see real interest rates at these these unprecedented

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Speaker 1: in five years of human history levels, I take that

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Speaker 1: as a serious warning sign. Whether it's a flashing yellow

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Speaker 1: light or a flashing red light, I don't know, but

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Speaker 1: it certainly does does make us nervous. It does make

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Speaker 1: us nervous. Economists like to say recessions don't just die

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Speaker 1: of old age, but the fact is they do die

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Speaker 1: of old age. That imbalances creep in. You have a

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Speaker 1: China debt problem, you have a Japanese leverage problem, of

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Speaker 1: europe structural problem, you have a US demand problem. Whatever.

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Speaker 1: At some point recoveries can roll over, and I think

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Speaker 1: there is some risk of that. Is this a macro worry, though,

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Speaker 1: that there's something wrong in the in the macro environment

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Speaker 1: in the world, or are we reaping beginning to reap

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Speaker 1: the consequences of an extraordinary monetary policy for too long.

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Speaker 1: That seems to be a debate out there. The We've

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Speaker 1: made a serious policy mistake in asking the central banks

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Speaker 1: of the world to carry the burden of bringing us

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Speaker 1: out of the financial crisis, and so you do get imbalances,

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Speaker 1: and you do get debt bubbles. I personally, don't think

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Speaker 1: we're in a debt bubble, certainly of anything like the

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Speaker 1: magnitude of two thousand and seven. I think I worry, frankly,

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Speaker 1: more about things like the productivity problem. You can't have

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Speaker 1: declining productivity in the US and have wage increases, and

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Speaker 1: therefore you can't have demand, and therefore you can't have growth.

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Speaker 1: That that, to me, is is the major thing I

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Speaker 1: would worry about if I were looking for something to

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Speaker 1: worry about. One of the good things to talking to

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Speaker 1: Steve Rattner, has you come at it from so many

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Speaker 1: different angles. You've got your career of journalism, your career

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Speaker 1: private equity, and in in in money management and investment management.

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Speaker 1: Are we setting ourselves up for what quant guys call

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Speaker 1: stochastic moments? Are we gonna lose our smooth curves in

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Speaker 1: our control of the global financial system? Or are we

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Speaker 1: going to be able to maintain this sense of cards

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Speaker 1: that we have right now? Well, that's the right question

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Speaker 1: in terms of short term movements. The people like George

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Speaker 1: Soros are in the former camp. They're worried that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna lose control of this whole mechanism, which is sort

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Speaker 1: of like a real Goldberg creatures been wrong so far,

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Speaker 1: so far he's been wrong. Sure, so far he's been wrong.

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Speaker 1: But but although I think he's bought gold which was

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Speaker 1: which is a good which is a good trade. But

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Speaker 1: if I were betting, there's a significant risk of the

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Speaker 1: first outcome. But if you ask me to bet, my

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Speaker 1: bet is that the world will muddle through and we

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Speaker 1: will find our way through this thing. Maybe we'll have

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Speaker 1: some kind of mild recession, but but a collapse of

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Speaker 1: the so called house of cards, I don't see myself quickly.

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Speaker 1: What do you do with multiple four and consumer stucks?

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Speaker 1: We don't buy those, We try not to. What if

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Speaker 1: you own what if our listeners they got lucky, they

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Speaker 1: owned a micbot two years at Coldgate a million years ago.

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Speaker 1: What's he do? I? I would frankly sell them. We've

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Speaker 1: looked at those stocks over and over again. And I

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Speaker 1: understand the concept of dividend yield. But but as you

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Speaker 1: say that twenty four times P for companies that are

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Speaker 1: growing two or three percent, it just doesn't make any

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Speaker 1: sense to does Apple in that group? And sex has

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Speaker 1: in zero to three percent revenue growth. I'm not enough

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Speaker 1: of an expert on Apple too, to opine on that

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Speaker 1: everybody in the show is an expert on Apple? Well,

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Speaker 1: how many Apple products? It's like I got like forty

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Speaker 1: five things that somewhere somewhere something I broke my screen

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Speaker 1: this week. You're very quickly your view on what we've

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Speaker 1: decided this morning is the ultimate hedge this summer. I

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Speaker 1: take it to a visa. Um, okay, that that sounds

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Speaker 1: pretty good to me. Leave to go to the beach,

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Speaker 1: Just leave. Well, look, you mean that you could take

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Speaker 1: your money and just put it under the mattress and

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Speaker 1: call it a day. Steve Ratner with US futures negative

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Speaker 1: thirteen down futures negative one oh two. This hour of

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Speaker 1: surveillance bunchy by Volvo Cars, White Planes. Visit Volvo Cars,

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Speaker 1: White Planes dot Com. Here's John Tucker with the latest

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Speaker 1: news headline and Michael and Tollas sits down this warning

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Speaker 1: between the presumptive Democratic novelty, Hillary Clinton and Senator Elizabeth

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Speaker 1: Warren of Massachusetts. That's according to a Democratic strategist signed

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Speaker 1: about a Washington Post, this meeting will feel speculation about

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Speaker 1: Warren's prospect as a potential vice presidential pick. In an

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Speaker 1: interview with Bloomberg Politics, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump needs to pick and experience running, maybe because

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Speaker 1: he doesn't know a lot about the issues. McConnell also

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Speaker 1: strongly urged Trump to change course on his rhetoric, and

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Speaker 1: billionaire Warren Buffett's annual lunch auction drawing a top offer

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Speaker 1: exceeding two billion dollars, this with more than half a

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Speaker 1: day remay of the fundraiser, beating last year's pace. The

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Speaker 1: highest offered the charity event two point six one million dollars.

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Speaker 1: According to eBay's website, so far for the charity Lunch

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Speaker 1: with Warren Buffett, the bidding is up to two point

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Speaker 1: six one million dollars and still half a day to go,

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Speaker 1: So get your bids in. Get Radner got up and

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Speaker 1: beat that. Lunch with Ratner was a higher figure than

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Speaker 1: you got Lunch with Steve Rattner at viand on Madison Avenue.

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Speaker 1: When it works. We've got a bit of a dollar

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Speaker 1: ninety eight for lunch with Tom. Now let's time for

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Speaker 1: the land Rmber Particippani Blueberg NBC Sports Update with robust

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Speaker 1: morning Mike ands on Yankees. They cap off in four

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Speaker 1: games sweep of the Angels at the stadium with an

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Speaker 1: ice six three when it was backed by Ivan Nova

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Speaker 1: and roll this Chapman who nailed down the safe giver

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Speaker 1: Joe Girardi on his offense. Finally coming around. I thought

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Speaker 1: our guys did a really good job of staying in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the field, going the other way when

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Speaker 1: the opportunities presented themselves. He hit some home runs. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think we had another three run homer, which we

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Speaker 1: haven't had a long time. UM. And it seemed like

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Speaker 1: everyone helped. Everyone contributed, and that's a big difference. And

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Speaker 1: we'll see if they can keep it going as a

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Speaker 1: homestand and continues over the weekend. Detroit comes to town.

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Speaker 1: When we met Mike Elfrey climbs up on the hill

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Speaker 1: tonight opposite of C. C. Sabathia. The Mets roll in

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Speaker 1: the Milwaukee. They got on the board right away, Curtis

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Speaker 1: Granderson a familiar site, building his fortieth career leadoff home

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Speaker 1: run six and the Mets uniform and route to a

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Speaker 1: five to win. Just trying to get on base somehow

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Speaker 1: if I end up in a good situation with the

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Speaker 1: count wise, trying to drive the baseball just like it

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Speaker 1: would be in any other account over the course of

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Speaker 1: the game, but sometimes I happen to get a couple

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Speaker 1: of mountin the ballpark or a total Cologne picked up

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Speaker 1: his fifth win. Matt Harvey looks to continue his rebuilding

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Speaker 1: process and I going for his third consecutive quality start

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Speaker 1: when he faces junior get up. Mets picked a pair

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Speaker 1: of Long Island kids who play at Boston College and

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Speaker 1: Yukon with their top picks in the draft. Yankees went

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Speaker 1: out west, having high school outfielder from California, and the

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Speaker 1: Phillies had the top pick overall. They grabbed the California

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Speaker 1: high school star and outfielder as well, Nickey Monty Act

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Speaker 1: first time they've had the number one overall picks. It's

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Speaker 1: ninety seven and on the ice, the Sharks came up

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Speaker 1: big when it mattered most the four to winning Game

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Speaker 1: five of the Stanley Cup Final the Igloo, forcing games

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Speaker 1: six and San Jose on Sunday. They still trail out

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Speaker 1: three games at two. That is your NBC Bloomberg Sports update,

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Speaker 1: Michael and Tom. Thank you, sir, greatly appreciated. Michael. The

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati Reds are twenty games out and it's not even

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Speaker 1: fourth of July. Why is that the Chicago Cubs are

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Speaker 1: playing seven oh seven baseball. Well, there's two things going

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Speaker 1: on there. One, the Reds are tanking. They want to

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Speaker 1: be bad so they can get high draft choices and

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Speaker 1: do something like the Chicago Cubs didn't, and the Cubs

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Speaker 1: did just The reviews are awesome. Yeah, seven oh seven

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Speaker 1: baseball and they are the Hamilton of baseball. They are

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Speaker 1: very very cool. We said good morning to all these

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Speaker 1: serious six Channel one nine Chicago. This is Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: The sports report was brought to you by Landoverer Parcipit.

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