WEBVTT - BI Analysts Discuss US Election Impact on TMT 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:18.680 Hello and welcome to the Votes and Verdicts podcast, hosted 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:23.119 by Bloomberg Intelligence, part of Bloomberg's investment research department, with 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:27.760 five hundred analysts and strategists working across all major world markets. 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:31.840 Our coverage includes over two thousand equities and credits, as 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:34.479 well as outlooks on more than ninety industries and one 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:39.560 hundred market indices, currencies, and commodities. In this podcast series, 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:43.280 we talk about the intersection of business policy and law. 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:48.519 The Forthcoming Conversation is part of the Bloomberg Intelligence Election series, 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:52.080 covering the industry and company impacts of the upcoming election. 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:57.000 On October eighth, Jennifer Ree, anurag Rana, and Matt Schuttenhelm 0:00:57.080 --> 0:01:01.080 discussed what the election might mean for the USMT sector. 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.040 If you have any questions, please feel free to reach 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:07.399 out to any of us on the Bloomberg terminal. Hello 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:11.280 and welcome. My name is Matt Schuttenhelm. I am a 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:16.360 litigation and policy analyst focused on TMT with Bloomberg Intelligence, 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:19.680 and joining me today are my colleagues. Jennifer Ree are 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:25.840 senior antitrust litigation guru, and anurag Rana, senior equity analyst 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:29.960 for technology. This is the second in a series of 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:35.480 conversations across the month of October focused on the upcoming election. 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:41.679 Our first considered financials. This one tackles TMT. Subsequent calls 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:46.480 will discuss tax, healthcare, industrials, and other topics, all to 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.960 help get you ready to understand the potential impacts of 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:55.440 the upcoming election. Bloomberg Intelligence is the investment research platform 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:59.360 on the Bloomberg Terminal, consisting of over five hundred professionals 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.080 covering over two thousand companies. Uh We cover those companies 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:08.720 from the perspectives of equities, credit, ESG, litigation, and policy 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:12.440 and terminal clients can always reach out to us with 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:17.840 questions about our research. And so with that introduction, let's 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.480 get started today. How we how we've tried to structure 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:25.600 this today is as a conversation between the three of us. First, 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:28.399 we're gonna we're gonna focus on antitrust with with gen. 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:33.320 Then I'll take a deeper dive into the regulatory play 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:38.359 playing field facing broadband broadcasters, internet platforms and how the 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:44.000 election might change that. And then anarag Rana will bring 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:45.920 it home for us and make it all a little 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:49.480 bit more concrete and talk about how the election may 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:54.880 have impacts on some specific companies. If you have questions 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:58.440 today during this conversation, there there's a Q and A 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:03.400 box right here on the platform you can drop questions there. Also, 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:06.080 feel free to reach out to us on the terminal 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:11.720 over over ib or email. And so I think it 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.760 makes sense to start with antitrust and you Jen, because 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.239 anti trust has become such a big deal in the 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:24.160 TMT space recently, so over the past three years, it's 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:27.720 really had a big impact on these companies, not just 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.840 in terms of all the lawsuits brought by the DJ 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:35.200 and the FTC for monopolization, but also with respect to 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:40.160 these companies' ability to complete M and A son. Let's 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:41.920 just start with a backdrop. Can you give us a 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.480 backdrop for all of this and what has changed in 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:48.640 the last three years in the anti trust world as 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:49.720 we head into this election. 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:53.640 Yeah, sure, thanks, Matt. You know, everyone knows we've seen 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.360 really aggressive anti trust enforcement under the Biden administration. The 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:00.480 business community isn't happy about it. And we have an election, 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:03.240 We're going to have a different administration and are things 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.640 going to change? And I told Matt, let's I think 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:07.840 it's important to kind of figure out how we got 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.200 to where we are before we talk about what might 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:10.920 happen next. 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:14.400 And the thing is where we are now in. 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:16.560 Anti trust has come out of a movement that's really 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:18.760 been developing for about ten years, and I would say 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:22.240 began to rear itself in the Trump administration. And I 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.400 think that's important to understand that this isn't just about 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:28.880 what Biden's enforcers have done. And what happened here is 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.440 that a viewpoint began to develop in the more progressive 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:34.640 circles of the anti trust bar that enforcement for years, 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.360 maybe the last forty years, has just been way too lax. 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:40.960 This is called the neo brandicean movement because it's inspired 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:43.760 by the work of Lewis Brandeis, a Supreme Court justice 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.960 in the early twentieth century. He believed that monopolies were 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:50.280 harmful to workers and innovation and not just price and output. 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:52.440 A price and output have been more of the focus 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:56.400 in the anti trust world since about the Reagan era. Now, 0:04:56.440 --> 0:05:00.040 the neo brandiicians believe that lax enforcements resulted in in 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.720 a concentrated economy in which in many areas, not just TMT, 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:07.160 we've allowed companies to grow way too large via acquisite, 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:10.600 large and powerful, I should say, via acquisition, and that 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.680 many industries lack sufficient competition, and this leads to a 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:16.919 lot of societal ills, not just higher price or lower 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.680 quality or less innovation, but more than that. The anti 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.320 trust chiefs at the DOJ and FTC that were appointed 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:25.960 by Biden, they're part of this camp. They're securely in 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.440 the middle of this camp. And as I said before, though, 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:31.880 I should note that some of this more aggressive enforcement 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:36.120 did start under Trump's presidency, but Biden's enforcers really picked 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:39.600 up that mantle and ran with it. So we began 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.159 to feel the effects in the business community under Biden's 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:44.880 anti trust enforcers, and they've made it their mission to 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:49.080 revitalize enforcement, stop merger activity by large incumbent firms, and 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:51.920 expand the law so that it's easier for plaintiffs to 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:55.200 win monopolization suits. So in order to do this, they've 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.560 really rewritten the playbook that's been prevalent for years. This 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:00.920 is both in terms of m and A review and enforcement, 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:04.360 but also with respect to watching the conduct of companies 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:07.680 with monopoly positions or dominant market share in markets or 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:11.600 in a market or markets. So The thing is this 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:16.400 increased vigilance particularly impacts companies in the TMT sector because 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.040 if you think about it, the large Internet platforms are 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:24.160 the most powerful companies today and each one of them Meta, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:27.359 have a dominant position in some market. Now, I should 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.560 say this can kind of be debated because it depends 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:32.400 on how you define the markets. But they are dominant, 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.000 they are powerful, and these are the companies that are 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:38.440 under the microscope and are more easily pursued because as 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:41.920 a threshold situation in court, the FTC or DOJ has 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.360 to prove that the company has a monopoly position. If 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.240 they can't prove that they're done, these are the companies 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:48.880 that they're going that they believe they're going to be 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:51.880 able to do that for. But let me talk about 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:53.200 M and A for a minute, because I think the 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:56.719 bigger impact of this neo brandiician movement is with respect 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.520 to M and A because it has prevented a lot 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:01.680 of deal from being signed to begin with, and it's 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:04.680 caused a lot of abandonments. I mean, we've always had 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:07.520 abandonments of deals when they face pressure, but the number 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:10.560 of abandonments in the last three years has skyrocketed, and 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:12.920 this has really been felt in the TMT space. We've 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:16.320 seen little M and A activity. Amazon'squeaked by with the 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:18.720 one Medical acquisition, but we know it had to abandon 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:22.960 I Robot Quilecom, Auto Talks fell apart, Adobe, Figma fell apart, 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.960 in Video arm fell apart. Microsoft did manage to acquire Activision, 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.640 but that was with years of litigation, and by the way, 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.320 the FTC is still fighting that one, even though it's 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:35.560 closed and integrated. Same thing for Meta Within. They had 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:37.480 to win in court in order to close that deal. 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:40.360 And part of the reason for this is because one 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.960 of the biggest changes in perspective of the enforcers today 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:46.880 is that they refused to settle a problematic merger. You know, 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:50.120 I defended deals as a lawyer for many, many years, 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:52.040 and it was par for the course that if the 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:55.440 deal posed some sort of antitrust problem, that companies would 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:58.160 divest or agree to behavioral remedies, we'd get the underlying 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:00.520 deal closed. It really wasn't about are we going to 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:02.160 get suit or not. It was about what do we 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:03.880 need to do in terms of a remedy to get 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:07.400 this deal closed. But today the agencies believe the problematic 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:09.760 deal is simply one that shouldn't be done period and 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.800 that remedies don't work, so they don't settle except in 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:15.240 very rare circumstances, and that's why we have so many 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:17.640 lawsuits to try to block deals, so many more than 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:20.240 in the past, and that's why it's been really hard 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:22.600 for CMT companies to engage in the activity. So with 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:27.360 that backdrop, I'll move into the area of how what 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.040 do I think is going to change with the election? 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:32.560 Quick quick question from me, jen If that's okay? Sure, 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:37.120 So when we look at these large tech companies, especially 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:41.120 as it relates to Genai investments, not a whole lot 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.319 of companies can do this in a sense that there 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:47.040 isn't capacity for a startup to go out and spend 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:50.079 ten twenty to thirty forty billion dollars, which means in 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:53.760 the next phase of the cycle, they will have a 0:08:53.920 --> 0:09:00.240 disproportionate right revenue coming into them. How does regulation the 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:04.160 authorities look at that aspect that they have funded these 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:06.959 things which nobody else can, and they're going to get 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:08.680 even bigger down the road. 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:10.600 I mean, I think they do it the same way 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:13.200 they started with all these monopolization cases, they will start 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:16.880 investigations they can investigate, and what they're going to be 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:20.040 watching for an a RAG is that even if those 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.120 big investments are made, that the market stays open, in 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:26.000 other words, that the assets are needed that are needed 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:30.240 to advance in the AI space aren't basically hogged by 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:32.679 or kept by these big Internet platforms so that other 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:36.360 companies have access. So I think it starts with an 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:40.000 investigation to the extent that we have a law called 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:42.720 the Heartscott Ridino Act, which says investments of a certain 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.400 that reach a certain threshold that have to be filed 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:47.839 with the government and that the deal can't get closed 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:49.800 until the government's had a chance to review. Now I 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:52.319 know that these investments are falling under that, but it 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.480 doesn't mean that the agencies can't investigate the investment and 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:59.079 call the investment itself illegal. But again, the agencies have 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.440 a hard time here right because they can't do anything 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:04.600 on their own. They need a court order for any 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.360 kind of action. So whether they don't like the way 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:11.559 the assets that the company that on Microsoft or Google 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:14.400 has invested in the way they're being handled, they still 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.000 have to go to court to ask the court to 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.760 step in if they don't like the investment itself, again, 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:21.520 they have to go to court. So I think probably 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:24.480 in the way you're thinking about it, that industry is 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:27.000 probably going to advance in the way you expect. 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:31.280 It to advance. So so, yeah, Jen, So so big 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:35.920 change in the law and how we think about antitrust. 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.160 Let's take it now to the election. Okay, what happens 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:44.640 if anything to this revolution, if Trump is elected or 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:45.920 if a terrorist in the White House. 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:49.000 So let me say my position on this is probably 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:51.520 a little different than others. I'll start by saying, this 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:55.320 movement's taken root. Okay, so we're definitely not going back 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:57.480 to where we were five or six years ago. We're 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:00.120 not going back, I don't think under either president. And 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.040 see to where it was when I practiced law, which 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:06.240 was that ninety nine percent of deals that had problems settled. 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:10.680 I think that so the hurdles are going to be higher, 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.920 They're going to stay higher. And as I said, it's 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.360 important to understand that things toughened under Trump. I think 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:21.200 things will be different though. And let me start by saying, 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.040 we're hearing a lot that some believe that it's going 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:26.320 to be easier under Trump and stay just as aggressive 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.599 under Harris. And part of the reason I think some 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.839 people believe that is because the orthodoxy, the way we've 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.040 always thought about a change in administration is that the 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.920 Republican administrations were easier, let sing on M and A 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:39.079 than the Democratic ones. And I want to say that 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.400 to the extent that's true, it's only slightly true. If 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:45.760 you really dig into statistics, there are very few differences, 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.319 you know. I took a look at the deals that 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.120 were subject to in depth or review under a bunch 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:53.760 of different administrations. The average under Bill Clinton was three percent, 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.640 the average under George W. Bush was three percent, the 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.440 average under Obama was three point four, and the average 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.800 under Trump was two point seven. I don't have good 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.640 data yet for Biden because the FTC's data comes out 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:06.800 very late, and I only have data for the first 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.800 like eight months, so it's one point six. But I 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:11.920 believe it's actually much higher than that if we had 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.080 current data. That's not that different. If you look at 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.480 the number of lawsuits filed a challenge a deal under 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:21.240 George W. Bush in fiscal year FTC's fiscal six that 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:24.199 was during his second term. It was two under Obama. 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.640 In the FTC's Fiscal twenty fourteen. Also in Obama's second term, 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:32.720 it was one. Under Biden's fiscal FTC Fiscal twenty twenty two, 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:35.000 it was twelve. That's where we see the big uptick. 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:39.400 But this idea that Republicans are always easier isn't exactly right. 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:41.719 And I don't think that these old rules apply to 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.719 the Trump administration because the approach, at least during the 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:49.839 first Trump presidency wasn't really traditionally republican. If you look 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.120 at what happened anti trust enforcement of m and A 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.560 was unpredictable. Now, a lot of this depends on who 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.680 he appoints at the FTC and DOJ. He will definitely 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:00.720 appoint his own people. 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:01.559 We will have. 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.679 These are the decision makers, right. But what we saw 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.959 the DOJ the last time Trump was president is that 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.240 the DOJ erected hurdles for deals that the Trump didn't 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:15.320 like where he didn't like the companies. For instance, at 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.440 and T, Time Warner Time Warner owning CNN. Trump didn't 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.680 like that deal. The DOJ challenge did in court. 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.000 I went to that trial. There was literally no. 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.440 Evidence to support their theory of harm. 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:27.400 They lost. It was expected to lose. 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.200 It looked more like a political challenge than real antitrust challenge. 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:36.040 But Trump I'll push through deals with questionable, questionable remedies 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:38.720 that he liked. The example there would be Sprint T Mobile. 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.240 So I think their enforcement in the M and A 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:42.960 space is going to be a little bit more about 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:47.440 the companies that have found favor with the administration, which 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:49.320 might have an easier time in the companies that haven't. 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.920 Now under Harris, again, it largely depends on who's appointed 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.120 at the FDCO DOJ, and we have a little bit 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.800 of a strained situation there because there's been a push 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.960 for her to remove Lena Khan. I think that she's 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.960 in a difficult position with respect to that. Lena Kahan's 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.840 term has expired and she can stay on until somebody 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:11.520 new replaces her. Now Harris could just let her stay 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.960 and not replace her. If she does try to replace her, 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:16.520 I do think she's going to have a lot of 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.880 anger from the progressive wing of her own party. But 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.840 the issue is she could really become under pressure to 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:26.600 reappoint her because it's a bit unorthodox for an FTC 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.480 commissioner to stay on for years and years after their 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.320 term has ended. If she does that, Con will need 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:36.160 Senate confirmation. We don't know what the makeup of Senate 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:38.480 is going to be, although it seems more likely that 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:41.640 it's going to be a majority GOP than Democratic, and 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.160 there's no guarantee that they're going to vote her through. 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:49.000 So this is kind of a strange situation. Con could 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.560 also leave on her own accord, because that often happens 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:55.240 when an administration changes, even when it moves from even 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.160 if it's the same party. I think Canter at the 0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:02.240 FTC will most likely take another job, and Harris or 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:04.640 Trump will name a new Attorney General, and that case 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:07.520 will also name a new Assistant Attorney General in charge 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.080 of antitrust, and it's these people that make the calls. 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:16.240 I have a feeling that under the Harris administration things 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.600 will be a little bit more pragmatic and sensible. I 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.200 don't think that's the prevalent feeling. I think most people 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.560 believe the aggressive into trust enforcement will continue, and it 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:28.320 definitely will for some time because Con will be there 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.360 at least for some time unless she takes another job. 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:36.880 But the position now is so rigid you can't get worse. 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:41.080 It can't get more rigid, and there are critics, even Democrats, 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:45.040 that criticize the rigid position to just go after and 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:48.160 challenge every single deal that has a problem in court. 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:51.920 I think a slightly more sensible and pragmatic approach would 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:53.920 be the pick and choose the battles a little more 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:57.840 carefully and perhaps engage in more settlements that this administration has. 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.200 And I have a feeling that that could happen onunder 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:06.000 either administration. But I again, I don't think we're going 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:07.720 to go back to a time that we had for 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:11.320 about forty years in which you just expected problematic deals 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.080 mostly to settle and only a few challenges every year. 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:18.520 That that's really helpful, Thanks Jen. So what I think 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:20.400 we need to touch at least a little bit on 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:26.080 the current litigation that's ongoing. So there's the FTC suit 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:32.320 against Facebook, Facebook against Amazon, uh DJ against Google Search, 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:37.160 against Google ad Tech, DJ against Apple Live Nay, I 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:39.680 mean the list is long. When when when the Clinton 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:45.480 administration sued Microsoft back in the nineteen nineties and one 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:49.680 on liability it ended up settling under the next administration, 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:53.440 under the under the Bush administration, is that going to 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.400 be the course for for these lawsuits? Do they have 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:01.280 a chance of settling under the next administration, So I 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:02.280 tend to doubt it. 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.800 I'll say maybe for a few of them, and I'll 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:07.280 get into that, and again I'm going to go back 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:10.879 to saying, remember that it was Trump's DOJ and FTC 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.480 that either began investigations of most of these companies or 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.920 actually sued them. Was Trump's DOJ that brought the lawsuit 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:21.320 that's existing against Meta, I believe against Google over search 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.879 as well. So Biden's folks picked up the mantle and 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.040 just ran with it. So let's start with the Google cases. 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:31.440 I would say definitely not. First, these cases are really advanced. 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:34.919 We have DOJ has already won on liability against Google 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.240 over search, right and it's just finished its trial against 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:41.119 Google over the ad Tech stack. Search was the victory 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.320 on liability for the DJ and now we're just working 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.520 out remedies. Those are going to be final by August. 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:49.080 The ad Tech suit could have a decision by the 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:51.240 end of this year, or maybe even in one queue 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:54.320 where we're also leaning toward the DOJ winning on liability. 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:59.080 So these are so advanced, and we certainly know that 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:02.359 the Trump had been both Donald Trump and jdvans are 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.479 no friend to Google, so I really doubt a settlement 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.800 would happen there, and I highly doubt a settlement would 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:10.560 happen under Harris administration. Now let's talk about Apple and 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.040 Live Nation, because those are the DOJ's other suits. These 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.480 are really new, we have years ahead of us. Apple 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.800 is just in the motions to dismiss stage. They don't 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:20.760 even have a trial set yet, and I would expect 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:23.120 it to end up in six. You have Live Nation 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:25.440 that's set to start trial in March of two thousand 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.119 and six, so there's a long way to go, and 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:29.240 I would certainly think these companies are going to try 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:31.359 if there are new people put in place at the 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:35.560 DOJ try to settle these cases. Maybe the Apple suit 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.000 has a shot. And I say that because in the suit, 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:41.880 the DOJ is targeting just this list of very specific conduct, 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:45.600 which to me is kind of settleable because I could 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:48.880 see Apple agreeing to change or to seize that conduct, 0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:51.359 and that makes it kind of a settable suit. So 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.479 we'll give it a maybe down the road, especially if 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:56.320 things don't seem to be going well for the DOJ 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.359 and litigation Live Nation, I would say no, this is 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:03.520 a really pop dealersuit with consumers. From a political perspective, 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:06.600 I don't see why either administration would settle so really quickly. 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.000 On the FTC side, we've got suits against Meta and 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:12.960 against Amazon. Now the one against Meta is in summary 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:16.720 judgment stage. I do see Meta probably ultimately prevailing in 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.320 this suit. They have a decent shot of disposing of 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:21.760 it in some rey judgment, but if not in trial. 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:25.320 No trial dates been set yet, by the way, so 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:27.800 that's also kind of down the road. I do think 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.240 that it's too advanced to settle now. If some really 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.360 drastic remedy is imposed, like forcing Facebook to sell Instagram, 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.160 which I really doubt is going to happen, maybe there'd 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:39.680 be a settlement to do something different there. But I 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.080 don't think the case is going to come to that now. Amazon, 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:46.280 to me is the one that's the most settleable, even 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:49.040 though the judge mostly just denied the company's motion to dismiss. 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:51.880 So that's moving into discovery and kind of the long haul. 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:54.680 And we've got the trial set for October and a 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:56.800 twenty twenty six, by the way. And I say that 0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:00.960 because Amazon has settled really similar allegations in the UK 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:04.040 and in the EU, and apparently they offered something along 0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:06.600 those lines to the FTC but they were rejected. But 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:08.359 a new administration is going to have a couple of 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:10.960 years to see how those settlements have been playing out 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:13.840 and whether the merchants that are selling on Amazon's site 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:16.640 are okay with them, are happier if things are going better. 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:18.640 And if that's the case, I would think that there's 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:20.280 probably room for settlement in that suit. 0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:23.800 Got it? That's really helpful. And what about other companies 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:27.639 in the TMT space, any that are currently a threat 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.680 of a suit like this under a Trump or a 0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:34.760 Harris administration in your view, you know, I don't think so. 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:37.800 I think they both DOJ and FDC have kind of 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:40.280 turned their sites to healthcare markets in a pretty big way. 0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:43.760 You've got the FTC going after pharmacy benefit managers. The 0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:46.639 DOJ is looking at United Health. They might file a 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:48.800 suit there. I just don't really think they have a 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:51.280 lot of bandwidth left. I mean, you can already see 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:55.120 the dj which has many more monopolization litigations on going, 0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.000 has fewer deal challenges than the FTC, and the FDC 0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:01.560 has more deal challenges or monopolization suits and I just 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.159 don't think that they have the room left if they 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:05.680 want to keep up the pressure on the M and 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.480 A front, which I do believe they do, to file 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:10.760 more suits. So I think we kind of see what's 0:21:10.800 --> 0:21:13.359 happening now and now the ones that are ongoing are 0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:17.520 going to play out. So I think Matt is probably time. 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:19.400 That's a lot on the anti trust and I think 0:21:19.440 --> 0:21:21.240 it's time to bring you in now to talk about 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:24.159 something different. So we'll talk about we'll talk about the 0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:27.960 legal risks in the TMT space in the US beyond 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.960 anti trust. So we're going to look at broadband providers, broadcasters, 0:21:31.080 --> 0:21:34.879 and internet platforms in other areas. So we have a 0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:38.680