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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in job.

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Speaker 4: I'm setting it to cash to start.

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Speaker 5: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 5: go to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate cobine.

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Speaker 4: You want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL Fantasy Flex episode

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Speaker 2: of the award winning Action Network podcast, presented by that MGM,

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Speaker 2: the official odds provider of the show. I'm Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 2: and here with me are Sean Corner and Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 2: Sewn is the Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics and

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Speaker 2: Chris is a senior editor and analyst at the Action Network,

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Speaker 2: or two of the very best fantasy football rankers in

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Speaker 2: the world. In this episode, we will quickly break down

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl fifty five slate from a daily fantasy perspective,

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Speaker 2: and then, of course we will dive headfirst into all

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Speaker 2: of those sweet, sweet player prop bets that you are

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Speaker 2: itching to hear about. It is Super Bowl fifty five Propapalooza. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 2: let's jump into it, and let's start with just a

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Speaker 2: quick overview for DFS Sean Chris Sean, I'm gonna start

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Speaker 2: with you big picture thoughts how to attack a smaller

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Speaker 2: or a showdown slate like this, and than any thoughts

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Speaker 2: you have on this game.

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Speaker 6: We've talked about it before, but when it comes to

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Speaker 6: these showdown slates, it's really up to you. When you

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Speaker 6: set your lineup, just make sure it tells a story

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Speaker 6: of a potential game unfolding. So this should be a

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Speaker 6: higher scoring game, so you're probably not gonna have kickers

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Speaker 6: or defenses in your lineup. But if you do want

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Speaker 6: to differentiate from the rest of the field, you know,

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Speaker 6: by all means create a lineup that will, you know,

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Speaker 6: be a winning lineup if it's a lower scoring game.

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Speaker 6: So you can throw a defense in there, a kicker

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Speaker 6: in there, but just you know, know that it's okay

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Speaker 6: to be controlling on these bigger, massive slates. For a

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Speaker 6: showdown slate Byron Pringle is a guy that you know,

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Speaker 6: I think is pretty cheap. He's eighteen hundred. There's a

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Speaker 6: lot of news we still need to find out when

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Speaker 6: it comes to DeMarcus Robinson, Sammy Watkins, and Antonio Brown.

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Speaker 6: So I don't have any specific lineups to get out,

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Speaker 6: but just just know that it when you're setting your lineup,

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Speaker 6: make sure it correlates well with a specific game flow

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Speaker 6: and game script that you think will be a winning one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Pringle is interesting, Sean because he has gotten more

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Speaker 2: run recently, especially with Sammy Watkins out, and even if

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Speaker 2: Watkins returns, there's still the possibility that Pringle plays as

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Speaker 2: the number three. Even if Hardman gets more targets, we

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Speaker 2: still might see Pringle actually getting more snaps and maybe

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Speaker 2: just as many targets. In the divisional round he had

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Speaker 2: three targets. In the Conference championship, he had five targets.

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Speaker 2: So someone who actually might have some usage that people

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Speaker 2: wouldn't expect and someone who could distinguish lineups. Raymond, what

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the showdowns late?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think you have to look at that price

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Speaker 7: range Byron. Pringle is one of my favorite players. I mean,

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Speaker 7: just assuming like there's just so much uncertainty right now,

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Speaker 7: and Pringo actually out snapped DeMarcus Robinson and mcicole Hardman

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Speaker 7: when it came to routes run according to Pro Football

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Speaker 7: Focus last week. So you know how much of that was,

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Speaker 7: you know it was just due to anything going on

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Speaker 7: with Robinson, We don't know. But Pringle did run thirty

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Speaker 7: one routes, third most on a team, behind Kelsey at

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Speaker 7: thirty five and Hill at thirty seven. And then Ronald

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Speaker 7: Jones is another guy just really popping out. And we'll

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Speaker 7: talk about him some more when we get to the

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Speaker 7: player props, but at twenty two hundred on DraftKings, he's

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Speaker 7: a guy who has double digit carries in each of

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Speaker 7: his last four games. Even though he's kind of second

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Speaker 7: fiddle to for net now you know, he's a.

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Speaker 3: Guy who they got.

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Speaker 7: He got all the second drive carries, Fournette got all

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Speaker 7: of the first I wouldn't be surprised to see them rotate.

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Speaker 7: And this is a thirty first ranked run defense in

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Speaker 7: the league. So this is a situation where Ronald Jones

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Speaker 7: could put up just as many points as any other

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Speaker 7: player on the suite, maybe outside of you know, one

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Speaker 7: of those big Chiefs guys. You could get him at

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Speaker 7: twenty two hundred, So I think that's a great value

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Speaker 7: as well.

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Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, and orry abound to your point about

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Speaker 2: Byron Pringle. He actually played the same number of snaps

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Speaker 2: as Tyreek Hill last week, which is just ridiculous. Not

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Speaker 2: that he's going to approach target chair like Tyreek Kill,

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Speaker 2: but just to kind of, you know, put a point

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Speaker 2: on it. He's at least out there playing snaps, so

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Speaker 2: someone to keep an eye on. And Ronald Jones, we

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Speaker 2: definitely will be talking about him. A quick note before

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Speaker 2: we get into the props. At Action Labs, we have

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Speaker 2: a new player prop tool that allows you to see

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Speaker 2: all the different lines out there and it also has

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Speaker 2: our projections, so a great resource free to use. Also,

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Speaker 2: we have a Super Bowl Insiders tool in which the

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Speaker 2: three of us highlight the Super Bowl bets that we

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Speaker 2: are making outside of the ordinary player props, so something

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Speaker 2: to check out. And as always, check out the BET

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Speaker 2: and GM player prop lines. Okay, guys, let's get into

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Speaker 2: Propapaluza and let's start with the quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what a Super Bowl matchup. It's awesome that

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Speaker 2: we saw this two years ago in the AFC Championship

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Speaker 2: Game and now we get this in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting because quarterback lines, I think you know tend

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Speaker 2: to be fairly efficient and so not always sure where

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Speaker 2: to attack them. Sean, I'm going to kick it to

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Speaker 2: you with Mahomes or with Brady, whether it's passing or rushing.

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Speaker 2: Are there props that you see right now that you like?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so let's start with Mahomes. You know, when it

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Speaker 6: comes to his passing yardage, I'm right in line. I think,

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Speaker 6: you know three twenty six and a half would be

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Speaker 6: my media and I think this is a matchup where

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Speaker 6: no line can be too high for the Homes. I

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Speaker 6: really think that they're just gonnam beat in the run here.

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Speaker 6: Why why even try running against the Buccaneers. So I think,

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Speaker 6: you know Mahomes will be slinging around. However, I do

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Speaker 6: like the under twenty eight and a half completions. It's

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Speaker 6: minus one twenty four at most books. You know, his

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Speaker 6: medium this year has been twenty five. He's gone under

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Speaker 6: this number, you know, I think eleven of seventeen games,

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Speaker 6: so he's gone under sixty five percent of the time.

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Speaker 6: You know, I have this closer to twenty seven, So

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Speaker 6: I am I'm boosting his projection for this game, and

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Speaker 6: I'm still getting quite a bit of value. And you know,

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Speaker 6: a market like this, every completion matters. You know, every

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Speaker 6: completion in a market like this is worth about six percent.

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Speaker 6: So you know, if you can get under twenty and

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Speaker 6: a half, I would do it, And you know I'd

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Speaker 6: probably bet it down to minus one fifty.

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Speaker 3: That's probably the.

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Speaker 6: Only angle I'm going to be betting any sort of under.

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Speaker 6: When it comes to homes, I'm showing a little bit

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Speaker 6: of value on the under two and a half passing touchdowns.

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Speaker 6: I think it should be closer to even money. Some

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Speaker 6: places have plus one twenty. I'm just going to pass

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Speaker 6: on that. I'm not interested in rooting for Mahomes to

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Speaker 6: throw less than three touchdowns. But I think this completion

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Speaker 6: prop is an angle to attack. You know, he will

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Speaker 6: get some explosive completion, so you know he'll rack up

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Speaker 6: a ton of yards and you know, twenty six to

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Speaker 6: twenty seven completion. So I think that we have a

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Speaker 6: little bit more wiggering when it comes as completion prop.

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Speaker 6: I think it's a little overinflated. So that's the only

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Speaker 6: under I'm betting so far on the homes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a few thoughts on mahomes here. So one, I

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Speaker 2: am taking the under on nineteen and a half yards

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Speaker 2: rushing because we have seen him with the toe injury

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Speaker 2: seemingly be just a little less willing to take off.

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Speaker 2: I believe last week or two weeks ago rather in

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Speaker 2: the championship game Conference Championship, he had five yards, and

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Speaker 2: then the week before that the Division round, I think

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Speaker 2: he had fourteen yards rushing. So I think we will

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Speaker 2: just see Mahomes a little less desirous to take off

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Speaker 2: running and staying in the pocket a little bit more

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Speaker 2: so going under nineteen and a half yards rushing. Sean,

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Speaker 2: I'm with you there on under twenty eight and a

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Speaker 2: half completions. I think you said you have it closer

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Speaker 2: to twenty six and a half, right, twenty seven twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: I have it around twenty six. I feel as if

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Speaker 2: that might be a little bit too low, but I'd

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Speaker 2: like to get Raybond's thoughts on that. And then also

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Speaker 2: I'll just say, I think the line that we are

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Speaker 2: seeing here for Mahomes, and if you look, I mean

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Speaker 2: it's three twenty five and a half, three twenty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half for passing. I think that's the highest

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Speaker 2: number I've seen all season. Not one hundred percent sure

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Speaker 2: on that, but I mean, it's if it's not the highest,

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Speaker 2: it's right up there. Raybond, what are your thoughts on

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Speaker 2: that line and how high it is.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, that's actually right in line with my of what

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Speaker 7: his average would be if if you played this out

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Speaker 7: a bunch of times. I have it at three twenty seven,

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Speaker 7: so you take a little down for the for the median,

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Speaker 7: but you know I have him at twenty eight completion.

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Speaker 7: So I'm actually, you know, kind of in line with

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Speaker 7: the market on most of on his projections. I do think, uh,

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Speaker 7: there could be some value on the on the under

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Speaker 7: on his rushing yards though he hasn't been scrambling quite

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Speaker 7: as much as of late, and he's also gotten you know,

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Speaker 7: with the Chiefs winning a bunch of kneel downs, and

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Speaker 7: I think, you know, when you're betting these rushing yard props,

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Speaker 7: you talk about every yard mattering. I think it's just

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Speaker 7: imperative to kind of separate out kneel downs and scrambles

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Speaker 7: and you know, in the design runs, so you're not

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Speaker 7: just you know, kind of using a certain yard per

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Speaker 7: carrier number. I think I think mahomes under rushing yards

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Speaker 7: is is probably the best value I see on the

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Speaker 7: board in terms of Mahomes. But for Brady, I think

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Speaker 7: he's an interesting pick for a long shot pick for

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Speaker 7: first touchdown. I believe he's at thirty five hundred on

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Speaker 7: DraftKings and you know his anytime touchdown ons as well,

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Speaker 7: and looking at those, he's actually scored four rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 7: this year. You wouldn't think so for for a guy

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Speaker 7: who's forty three years young. But the Chiefs also gave

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Speaker 7: up the top five amount of rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.

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Speaker 7: And it wasn't just guys like Scrambling. You had four

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Speaker 7: of those seven coming from a yard out. So if

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Speaker 7: you're looking for a long shot bet brady first touchdown

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Speaker 7: might just be to one.

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Speaker 2: Sean anything on Brady catch your eye, No, but.

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Speaker 6: Real quick shout out to ravaon on the kneel down angle.

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Speaker 6: You can't forget last year. I remember having Mahomes under

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Speaker 6: thirty and a half rushing yards. He had forty rushing

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Speaker 6: yards going to the final drive, and he kneeled down

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Speaker 6: was at two or three times for negative ten yards.

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Speaker 2: It was amazing. It was amazing. Yeah, it wasn't just

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Speaker 2: your standardkneel down. It was him backing up really looking

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Speaker 2: to milk the clock out before he would take the knee.

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Speaker 2: It was it was fantastic.

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Speaker 6: That was amazing. When it comes to Brady, I'm not

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Speaker 6: touching anything yet, but his passing yard total is a

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Speaker 6: bit high. It's it's two ninety six and a half

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Speaker 6: right now, and I have a closer to eighty eight.

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Speaker 6: And you know, when it comes to these passing yard props,

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Speaker 6: it takes you know, I would say ten yards off

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Speaker 6: for me to even initiate a bet. The truth is,

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Speaker 6: when it comes to these markets, you know, just six

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Speaker 6: or seven yards isn't going to move the needle much.

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Speaker 6: It's not going to cover the veig. So you know,

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Speaker 6: passing yards has to be way off for me to

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Speaker 6: bet it. So even though I'm seven yards off at

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Speaker 6: the moment, I'm not betting it now. However, if I

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Speaker 6: do end up betting on quite a few butt players

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Speaker 6: to go under the receiving total, which I might, then

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Speaker 6: I'll probably just double down and bet Brady's under that.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm.

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Speaker 6: Limited on a lot of my player props, So one

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Speaker 6: way to kind of get like a sort of parlay

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Speaker 6: situation out there is to kind of just bet on

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Speaker 6: correlative props.

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Speaker 2: So with Brady.

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Speaker 6: Once I lock in few players to go under the

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Speaker 6: receiving total, I think I'll also lock in Brady's total.

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Speaker 6: But if you're just betting at Stanalon, I don't think

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Speaker 6: it offers that much value.

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Speaker 2: And I mean this kind of touches on what Rayvon

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Speaker 2: talked about and Sean, what you just talked about. There

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Speaker 2: some books are right now allowing people to bet correlated

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Speaker 2: in game parlays or same sorry, same game parlays, and

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Speaker 2: I mean this I think is a perfect situation because

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Speaker 2: you can get something like, you know, Brady scoring the

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Speaker 2: first touchdown parlayed with Brady winning MVP or something like that,

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Speaker 2: or you know, Brady's over on the rushing yardage something

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Speaker 2: like that, to where you can, Sean, as you said

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Speaker 2: in the DFS segment, kind of tell a story with

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Speaker 2: the props that you're betting and the ones that are correlated.

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Speaker 2: Because there are just many more markets for this game

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Speaker 2: relative to your average football game. There are more opportunities

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Speaker 2: for you to find correlation and leverage it that way.

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Speaker 2: So something to keep in mind. And Sean, I'm with you.

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Speaker 2: If I had to take one of the Brady bets,

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Speaker 2: I haven't bet anything on Brady, yet if I had to,

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Speaker 2: it would be the under on his passing yardage, just

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Speaker 2: based on the strength of the strength of the Chiefs defense,

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Speaker 2: which is really schemed to take away big shots deep

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Speaker 2: and big shots on the perimeter, and that is where

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Speaker 2: the strength of the Bucks offense is with their wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: If they get into a situation where they are funneling

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Speaker 2: targets to the tight ends into the running backs, I

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Speaker 2: think that will make it harder for Brady to hit

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Speaker 2: the over on his yardage total. So that is something

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Speaker 2: that has my eye there. Let's talk about the running

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Speaker 2: backs here, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones on the side for

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Speaker 2: the Buccaneers, and then Clyde Edwards, Hilaire, Darryl Williams, and

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Speaker 2: maybe Le'Veon Bell for the Chiefs. Although I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: it now, I don't know if I have seen any

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Speaker 2: Le'Veon Bell props out there. So something to keep an

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Speaker 2: eye on, because if there are Leveon Bell props out there,

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Speaker 2: I would be highly interested in pounding the unders there.

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Speaker 2: But let's talk about the running backs. We already have

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Speaker 2: props for Fournette, Jones, Edwards, Layer and Darryl Williams Sean

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Speaker 2: anything catch your eye out of those guys.

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Speaker 6: To be honest, this is a terrible Super Bowl when

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Speaker 6: it comes to projecting running backs. Both running back situations

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Speaker 6: are pretty tricky. I think you know the Bucks will

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Speaker 6: be you know, Leonard Fournette dominating the receiving work and

280
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Speaker 6: Ronald Jones. I mean last week or the last time

281
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Speaker 6: they played. I had the over his on his rushing

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Speaker 6: yards because I thought he'd see ten to twelve carries

283
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Speaker 6: and that's exactly what happened, but he only produced was

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Speaker 6: at seventeen nineteen rushing yards. So you know, I'm tempted

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Speaker 6: to go the over thirty five and a half rushing

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00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 6: yards for Ronald Jones here. I think, you know, the

287
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Speaker 6: Chiefs defense will bait the Buccaneers into running the ball

288
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Speaker 6: and this will correlate nicely with a lot of the

289
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Speaker 6: Buccaneers receiving unders I have and potentially Brady's under, So

290
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Speaker 6: you know, the Buccaneers are going to have to move

291
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Speaker 6: all some way, and I think Ronald Jones could be

292
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Speaker 6: that way on the ground and then Leonard four at

293
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Speaker 6: his receiving props. Those have been money the past few games.

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Speaker 6: But I think that this line's pretty good. I have

295
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,640
Speaker 6: no lean one way of another on four net, but

296
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Speaker 6: it's just tricky, and you know, when it comes to

297
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Speaker 6: the Chiefs running backs, I'm just avoiding them altogether. When

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Speaker 6: it comes to the rushing props, I just have no

299
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Speaker 6: read on it. I locked in Darryl Williams under two

300
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Speaker 6: and a half perceptions at minus one thirty immediately last week.

301
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,800
Speaker 6: That's the only prop I locked in last week, and

302
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Speaker 6: it's down to minus two hundred and some books. I

303
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,440
Speaker 6: would bet it down to minus two twenty. That's where

304
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 6: I have the fair odds on that. But otherwise I'm

305
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Speaker 6: treating these very cautiously because it's going to be more

306
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Speaker 6: of a hot hand approach, and when you have that

307
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 6: kind of situation, it's hard to find an edge. So

308
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,000
Speaker 6: I'll be passing on a lot of the running back props.

309
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of uncertainty in the running back market.

310
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,920
Speaker 2: There are a couple of things that catch my eye.

311
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Speaker 2: One last week, the line that popped out the most

312
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,440
Speaker 2: to me out of any prop I saw was Darryl

313
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Speaker 2: Williams under forty one and a half yards rushing. That

314
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,840
Speaker 2: just seemed egregious, especially considering that the Buccaneers are so

315
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,680
Speaker 2: stout against the run, and we could see a situation

316
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,360
Speaker 2: where Edward Layer comes in and is really the lead back.

317
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 2: That line has actually been bet down to let me

318
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 2: make sure I have it right here. That has been

319
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 2: bet down to thirty and a half from forty one

320
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Speaker 2: and a half. So part of me is just thinking, honestly,

321
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,760
Speaker 2: I might try to get that middle there, but I

322
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Speaker 2: haven't bet it yet. I still think that even thirty

323
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 2: and a half is a titch too high, but I

324
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 2: wouldn't bet it at thirty and a half, So still

325
00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 2: kind of thinking about what I might end up doing.

326
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Speaker 2: In fact, it's actually now twenty eight and a half

327
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Speaker 2: at one book, and at that number, I really might

328
00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 2: be inclined to try to grab the middle. But that

329
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 2: is one thing that has come to my eye of

330
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Speaker 2: just Daryl Williams. I'm pretty pessimistic on everything to do

331
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Speaker 2: with him, just because that Bucks defense is pretty stout

332
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Speaker 2: against running backs. I'm with you on Ronald Jones. I

333
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 2: have over eight and a half carries. I've locked that in.

334
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Speaker 2: I think that number should be closer to around ten

335
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 2: ten and a half, so I feel pretty decent about

336
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Speaker 2: that number and Honestly, Leonard Fournette is the guy who's

337
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 2: kind of standing out to me and Rayvon, I want

338
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 2: to get your thoughts on this, not so much on

339
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Speaker 2: the actual props that are out there. I haven't bet

340
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 2: any of those, just in terms of like the over

341
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,120
Speaker 2: under for his yardage or carries or anything like that.

342
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Speaker 2: But this feels like it could actually be a Leonard

343
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Speaker 2: Fournette game, which sounds disgusting to say, But we know

344
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 2: that the Chiefs are weak against the run, and we

345
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,560
Speaker 2: know that they are weak in pass defense against running backs,

346
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 2: and it might be a situation. We know that Brady

347
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Speaker 2: historically has started slow in Super Bowls. It might be

348
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 2: a situation where the Buccaneers really try to slow the

349
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:50,480
Speaker 2: game down, keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline by

350
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,159
Speaker 2: funneling things through not through Ronald Jones, although I think

351
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:55,439
Speaker 2: he will get a little bit of usage, but through

352
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Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette. And you know, we've seen Fournette have around

353
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Speaker 2: twenty a little more than twenty opportunities in the playoffs

354
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Speaker 2: each game. I mean, I could see a situation where

355
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 2: if it's a low scoring game and Fournette has over

356
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 2: twenty opportunities over one hundred yards from scrimmage and somehow

357
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 2: gets multiple touchdowns, he could end up somehow being MVP.

358
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 2: So I'm just saying, like, if you have this narrative

359
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,120
Speaker 2: of how he could get there, I think parlay all

360
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:30,199
Speaker 2: of these different player props along with him getting the MVP,

361
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,520
Speaker 2: because that is the way in which it would happen.

362
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,159
Speaker 2: Ronald Jones having a good rushing game and then I

363
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 2: think especially having a receiving game where he goes over

364
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 2: his player prop. So that's something to kind of keep

365
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 2: in mind. Whatever the touchdown number is for Leonard Fournette,

366
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 2: if he gets there, it's going to be because he

367
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 2: scores I'd say at least one touchdown, probably two touchdowns.

368
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,440
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't believe I just went on about

369
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Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette because it's not as if I'm like really

370
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,680
Speaker 2: even all that hot on him. It's just like, based

371
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 2: on the matchup and how weak the Chiefs are against

372
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 2: running backs, like I could see an avenue there for

373
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,919
Speaker 2: four Nette having a much bigger game than people would expect. Rayvon,

374
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Speaker 2: tell me why I'm wrong.

375
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 7: My projections have been above market on four Nett pretty

376
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,640
Speaker 7: much the entire playoffs, So I completely understand Sean kind

377
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 7: of alluded to it, but these running back props are

378
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 7: are hard to bet, not only because we have these

379
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 7: two backfields where you are seeing something close to a

380
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 7: fifty to fifty split at least in you know, the

381
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 7: rushing portion, but it's the spread is a three point game.

382
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 7: I know most of us haven't projected somewhere in there,

383
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 7: maybe here little Hire Friedman, but it really a lot

384
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 7: of it's going to come down a game script. And

385
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 7: so you know, a bet like even Ronald Jones going

386
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,880
Speaker 7: over eight and a half carries, well, the Bucks have won,

387
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 7: you know what, they haven't lost since November. I think

388
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,399
Speaker 7: it was early December, so you know, he's his carry

389
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 7: numbers have been up in positive game script, but the

390
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 7: Chiefs can score and a hurry.

391
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,120
Speaker 4: And then on the other hand, you know Daryl.

392
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Speaker 7: Williams, he was under that his prop last week until

393
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 7: you know, into the fourth quarter.

394
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 4: I think we were talking about it.

395
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Speaker 8: So yeah, you don't have to remind me, no, I mean,

396
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 8: it's it's just one of those situations where I do

397
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,160
Speaker 8: think that, like the running back props in general are

398
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 8: going to be that most high variance, and I'm not

399
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 8: sure there is.

400
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 7: Necessarily a enough reward to kind of go with them

401
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 7: over some other guys. I do think that if you

402
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:26,919
Speaker 7: are looking for an MVP bet, I would take both

403
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 7: books running backs. I do think Edwards Dulaire just his

404
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 7: odds are shorter, I believe, and I just don't think

405
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 7: or equal to Fournette and then shorter obviously the Drones.

406
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:42,399
Speaker 7: I think Jones is actually an interesting long shot MVP bet.

407
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,880
Speaker 4: You know, we saw him one hundred and.

408
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 7: Three yards on ten touches with a long touchdown in

409
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 7: the first meeting, and I think that Jones could be

410
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 7: a lot more involved this week because you are playing

411
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 7: at Kansas City. Run defense mentioned that Jones kind of

412
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 7: had the second drive.

413
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 3: All to himself last week.

414
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,120
Speaker 7: This is a situation where I think the Bucks may

415
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 7: want to kind of get both of those guys involved

416
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 7: and Jones getting a little healthier. So I think it

417
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 7: just happens to be on the week that we're not

418
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 7: coming off like four nets, like third straight week of

419
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 7: catching a bunch of passes and putting up, you know,

420
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 7: big numbers that I think there's a little more value

421
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 7: tilting to Ronald Jones in first touchdown at eighteen to

422
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 7: one for first touchdown is MVP adds things like that,

423
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 7: I think there's actually some value on Jones.

424
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 4: But I agree.

425
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 7: I think when you just look at yardage in West

426
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 7: Tampa Bay, it's down big.

427
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 4: I think the yard is gonna have to come from somewhere.

428
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 7: And Kansas City's been top two against wide receivers the

429
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 7: last two years and yardage week yardage, and that's a

430
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 7: lot of Tampa Bay's yardage. So if that gets redistributed,

431
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 7: you're gonna see a big game from the backs.

432
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Speaker 5: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

433
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434
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435
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437
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,560
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442
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Speaker 6: What do you guys think about the rushing prop? The

443
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 6: first quarter rushing props Ronald Jones nine and a half

444
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 6: in four Nette eleven and a half. I think those

445
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 6: might be the way to attack it because raybound, like

446
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 6: you said, game script won't be an issue in the

447
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 6: first quarter, and the Chiefs they typically defer the kickoff.

448
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 6: The Buccaneers, I think, whilst I look are like minus

449
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 6: two hundred to receive the opening kickoffs, so they're probably

450
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 6: gonna get.

451
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 3: The ball first.

452
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 6: I think just attacking these running back crops the first

453
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 6: quarter might be the way to go.

454
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 2: Sean, I think that's great. I absolutely love that angle.

455
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, because I'm just looking I haven't done any projections yet,

456
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 6: but looking at Fournette since week thirteen, he's averaged fifty yards,

457
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 6: which is pretty close to his prop Uh, He's averaged

458
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 6: sixteen yards in the first quarter, so there be some

459
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 6: value there.

460
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, as the game wars on, they tend to use

461
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 7: for net more in the path role and they tend

462
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:06,640
Speaker 7: to throw it more.

463
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 3: So Yeah, that's a good call.

464
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 7: And then like if you're projecting by drive, I think

465
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 7: that would definitely favor kind of earlier in the game.

466
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the wide receivers here, and

467
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: as we were recording this, there is definitely uncertainty with

468
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 2: both of these units. Sammy Watkins. I imagine that he's

469
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 2: going to play, but he's still dealing with a calf

470
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 2: injury that kept him sidelined in the divisional round and

471
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 2: the Conference championship. DeMarcus Robinson is on the COVID nineteen

472
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: reserve list as a close contact, so it's tentatively expected

473
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 2: that he will be activated and able to play in

474
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, but that is not a certainty. And

475
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: then Antonio Brown was actually listed as doubtful last week,

476
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 2: although there certainly is time still for him to be

477
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 2: healthy enough to at least suit up for the Super Bowl.

478
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 2: So uncertainty with the wide receivers, but a lot of

479
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 2: guys for us to talk about. Rayvaughn, I'm gonna kick

480
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: it to you first, Tyreek Hill, I mean, Mike Evans,

481
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 2: Chris Godwin, and then of course some of the other

482
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: wide receivers, Mikole Hardman, Byron Pringle, even and then Scottie Miller,

483
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson, anyone catch your eye from a prop perspective.

484
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 7: So talked about this in our We had a first

485
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 7: Touchdown draft at Action Network and it was a value

486
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,679
Speaker 7: draft and I was up second and I took the

487
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 7: truck in Tyreek Hill at six to one, and you

488
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 7: could get a better even better at some books. I

489
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 7: think we were using draftings ods, but that's kind of

490
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:38,919
Speaker 7: in line.

491
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 3: With his true odds.

492
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 7: And I love Tyreek Hill as a first touchdown bet.

493
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 7: You know you're still getting plus money there and you

494
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 7: look at Tyreek Hill. He's number two in the NFL

495
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 7: in first quarter receiving touchdown first quarter targets. Since twenty eighteen,

496
00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 7: he's tied for the league lead with in.

497
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 4: First quarter touchdow.

498
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 5: Uh.

499
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 7: This year he's gotten he's tied for the team lead

500
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 7: with Kelsey, but he's very skewed to the second half

501
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 7: of the year. And Uh, he scored two touchdowns before

502
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 7: anyone out scored in the first meeting.

503
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:14,919
Speaker 3: Between these two teams.

504
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 7: He's just so hard to stop, even in defensive coordinators

505
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 7: are looking to take him away. So I kind of

506
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 7: I like the kind of more exotic Tyreek kill props.

507
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 7: I think, you know, anytime you're talking about yardage US,

508
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 7: you know that it's gonna be so volatile, especially because

509
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 7: we still don't know what's going on with key players

510
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 7: on both of these receiving cores. It's really hard for

511
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 7: me to say, you know, bet this yardage proper, bet

512
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 7: that yardage prop. But I do think that you know,

513
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 7: this is the highest uh where it's gonna It's projectedly

514
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 7: one of the highest highest scoring super Bowls ever. So

515
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 7: I think there's some good value to be had on

516
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 7: some of these, on some of these touchdown props, and

517
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 7: they're gonna be pretty fun to watch.

518
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: All right, Sean. I believe that we are kind of

519
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 2: on opposite sides here of Tyreek kill Uh donkey than

520
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 2: I am. I am going over ninety one and a

521
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 2: half yards receiving. I see that you are going under

522
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: six and a half receptions. Now, in theory, they both

523
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: could hit, but you know that's that's not incredibly likely.

524
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 2: Make the case for Tyreek Hill under six and a

525
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 2: half receptions, and then I will make the case for

526
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill. Why I'm going over ninety one and a

527
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 2: half receiving yards.

528
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, So first off, I'm in line with Raybond here.

529
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 6: I haven't locked any of these receiving props, and I'm

530
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 6: waiting for the DeMarcus Robinson news Antonio Brown. There's all

531
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 6: sorts of things swirling around, but I do think that

532
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 6: we could both win our bets here. I love the

533
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 6: under six and a half just because of the value provides.

534
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 6: I don't want to root against Tyreek Hill in this matchup,

535
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 6: but he's only gone over this number in five of

536
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 6: seventeen games. That's a twenty nine percent clip. Now, however,

537
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 6: you know he's got over this number each of the

538
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 6: last two games, and against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when

539
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 6: he got thirteen balls back in the week twelve. So

540
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 6: that's probably what's feeding into a lot of the overaction

541
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 6: here and partly why I'm scared about it already. But

542
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 6: you know, when it comes to prop like this, you're right.

543
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 6: I rather attack the under receptions than the under receiving

544
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 6: yards for Terry because you know he's a seven yard

545
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 6: touchdown waiting to happen. So I think that the way

546
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 6: you do a tackle pair like this is you attack

547
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 6: the median for receptions. So yeah, I love the under six.

548
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 6: Now here, I could see the Buccaneers trying to shut

549
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 6: down Tyrek Hill, and when I mean shut down, like

550
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 6: five catches for ninety yards and allow you know, underneath

551
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 6: passes to Travis Kelcey. You know, it's sort of a

552
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 6: pick your poison scenario. But I think if the Buccaneers

553
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 6: let Terry Hill get over seven catches, they have some problems.

554
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 6: So I think this is the one. The only market

555
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 6: I think you could bet against Terry Kill would be

556
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 6: the under six and a half receptions here at plus one fourteen.

557
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, everyone has a plan to stop Tyreek

558
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: Hill and then the game starts. I just don't I

559
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: don't see how it's going to happen. I don't think

560
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 2: that they have the cornerback who can with Tyreek Hill.

561
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 2: I know that Jamel Dean, I believe he didn't play

562
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: in Week twelve and so they were at a disadvantage.

563
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 2: He's the one guy in that secondary who really does

564
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 2: have the speed at the combine. He ran a four

565
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: to three forty times, so he has the speed to

566
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: hang with Hill, but that still doesn't mean he actually

567
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 2: has like the actual corner cover skills to hang with Hill.

568
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 2: And on top of that, the Chiefs are one of

569
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 2: the best teams in the league at moving their guys

570
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 2: across the formation anyway, So Jamel Dean plays almost exclusively

571
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 2: on the outside. It's not as if he's going to

572
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: follow Hill into the slot. So one way or another,

573
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: I think we're going to see Hill get a ton

574
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 2: of targets, and I think he's going to be going

575
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 2: against guys who cannot help, who cannot cover him. And

576
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 2: we saw in the Super Bowl last year he had

577
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 2: sixteen targets in the two playoff games. This year, he

578
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 2: has twenty one targets against the Bucks. In Week twelve,

579
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: he had fifteen targets, which he turned into a career

580
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: best thirteen receptions, two hundred and sixty nine yards and

581
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. Like, the best guy, the best coverman that

582
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: the Bucks have is in theory, Carlton Davis, and he

583
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 2: just got destroyed in one quarter of football by Tyreek Hill.

584
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 2: He'll destroyed him so much that they basically just stopped

585
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 2: using Davis in shadow coverage for the second half of

586
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: the year. Like that's that's basically like how traumatized he

587
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: was that they were just like, okay, you just staying

588
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: on that side of the field, don't worry about following

589
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 2: anyone anywhere. I think He'll is going to smash. So

590
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: some of this is maybe narrative driven, but I just

591
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 2: think from a matchup perspective, the Bucks don't have someone

592
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: who can hang with him, and from the volume perspective,

593
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: of how Hill has been used in big games, like

594
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 2: the targets, the share of targets that he's gotten in

595
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: big games. I think he's going to get enough targets

596
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 2: to go well over ninety one and a half. Rayvon,

597
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 2: tell me why I'm wrong. I don't think you're wrong.

598
00:29:58,160 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 3: I mean I was it.

599
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 7: I I tried to Conciraean a little bit about Travis Kelsey.

600
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 3: I think it was last week.

601
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 7: I get this two guys on the Chiefs and they're

602
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 7: just they're just Patrick Mahomes is so good that they're

603
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 7: so good that it could just get so much, so

604
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 7: much of the yards, and it creates such volatility here

605
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 7: that I would rather just go under with like every

606
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 7: other Chiefs player, like you know, from from the from

607
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 7: the like Robinson, the Hartman to to you know Pringle,

608
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 7: I mean Pringle maybe over, but uh, Edwards Alayer Williams,

609
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 7: like you're Tyreek Kirke is just so explosive that it's tough.

610
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 7: And and this is also three points spread. And yes,

611
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 7: the Chiefs have been playing in some closer games down

612
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 7: the stretch, but uh, in comparison to their kind of

613
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 7: three year average, when you have expectations for Tyreek Kale.

614
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 4: This is expected to be one of the closer.

615
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 7: Games they play, and you know that that's kind of

616
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 7: lends itself to, you know, receivers and quarterbacks having to

617
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 7: you know, keep throwing it down the stretch and maybe

618
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 7: he gets another underneath one. So for me, it's it's

619
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 7: more about, you know, kind of attacking some of the

620
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 7: role players, just because the Chiefs have have shown us

621
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 7: in these playoffs after you know, we kind of wondered,

622
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 7: are they okay, you know, I close the season out

623
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 7: kind of shaky, like they've really shown that they can

624
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 7: get the ball to to their premier playmakers in the Bucks.

625
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 7: By the way, Yeah, so the Bucks allowed a sixty

626
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 7: nine percent completion rate during the regular season and that

627
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 7: was fourth highest in the league. So even though the

628
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 7: Bucks have, uh, you know, what's thought as a very

629
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 7: talented defense, and they absolutely do, they are going to

630
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 7: give up completions. They are not going to be able

631
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 7: to play this like they played Breeze a couple of

632
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 7: weeks ago and just pressed, they're going to have to

633
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 7: you know, kind of place, you know, play back and

634
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 7: kind of I don't think they're going to have nearly

635
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 7: as much success as they did on Aaron Rodgers.

636
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 3: So for me, it's it's overs.

637
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 7: Or nothing with with with the top guys on the

638
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 7: chiefs Kelsey, and he'll all right.

639
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,479
Speaker 2: Well, I think one area where Sean would agree with

640
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: you is the idea of taking some unders on these

641
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 2: other guys. I know and I are both looking under

642
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: on Sammy Watkins. I'm specifically under thirty six and a

643
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: half yards, Sean, I believe you're under thirty six and

644
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: a half yards as well, and also under on the

645
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: receiving total. Talk about what you see there.

646
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, with Sammy Watkins, you know, assuming he's going to play,

647
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 6: I don't think he'll be close to one hundred percent

648
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 6: or at least see the usage we're accustomed to it.

649
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 6: When it comes to him, I think, you know, they're

650
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 6: gonna have to get harm and involved. And Kringle we

651
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 6: already talked about earlier, was heavily involved last week. So

652
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 6: I think that's gonna come at Watkins expense. So yeah,

653
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 6: I love the under three and a half receptions and

654
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 6: thirty six and a half receiving yards. You know, going

655
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 6: back to Ravo with Tyry Kill, I know that Terry

656
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 6: Kill is good, okay, but you have to understand that,

657
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 6: like the money is flooding in on the over and

658
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 6: it's it's creeping up to seven and a half receptions now,

659
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 6: so I would hope at seven and a half receptions

660
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 6: there's some resistance for you to at least consider the under.

661
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 6: But yeah, but when it comes to a I like Watkins,

662
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 6: I think he's going to be more of a decoy.

663
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 6: I don't see him being evolved too much. So I

664
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 6: love his owners. But again, this depends on DeMarcus Robinson's

665
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 6: COVID test. If he's out, you know, my projections for

666
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 6: Watkins are gonna go way up. So this is this

667
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 6: is a hold for now.

668
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and obviously we have to wait and see what

669
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 2: happens with Robinson. Sean, I think with the numbers out

670
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 2: there right now, you actually might like Robinson a little bit.

671
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: I hate Robinson. I'll just right well, I.

672
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 6: Hate Robinson as well, but my numbers say otherwise. That's

673
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 6: always the case.

674
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, so I would be betting under under one

675
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 2: and a half receptions for Robinson if he's active under

676
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half yards receiving. I mean, it's it's

677
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: a very freedman thing to trash a number three, number

678
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: four receiver on a team and just hammer the unders

679
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: with him. Let's talk about the Buccaneers receivers. I'm almost

680
00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 2: just blanket undering these guys, and a big that is

681
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: because of the scheme that the Chiefs run. They allowed

682
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 2: the fewest receptions to wide receivers in the regular season,

683
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: the second fewest yards. And you know, Mike Evans scored

684
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week twelve, but had

685
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 2: I believe just fifty yards receiving, I'm going under Mike

686
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 2: Evans sixty three and a half yards receiving, under Chris

687
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: Godwin seventy seven and a half yards receiving. We have

688
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: to wait and see what happens with Antonio Brown because that,

689
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: you know, might impact what happens with Scotty Miller and

690
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson. But I'm thinking it's likelier than not the

691
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 2: Brown plays. I might be wrong there, but if Brown plays,

692
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: I'm certainly going under Scotty Miller. And I'm honestly just

693
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 2: taking the under on Miller right now because if Brown

694
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 2: is active, then we're going to have worst numbers on Miller.

695
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 2: So I'm going under Miller right now. But Sean, what

696
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on these Buccaneers wide receivers.

697
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I have a similar plan as you. I think

698
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 6: I'm passing on Mike Evans. I'm in line with Evans.

699
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 6: And if you're betting under on you know, three of

700
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 6: these receivers or tight ends, you need someone to step up.

701
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 6: So I think I'll just pass on Evans all together

702
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 6: and hopefully he puts up one hundred and fift yard

703
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 6: game which will help these owners hit. But yeah, I'm

704
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 6: under Godwin just based on the number. Seventy seven and

705
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 6: a half is pretty high. There's nothing about the matchup

706
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 6: that particularly scares me, but seventy seven and a half.

707
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 6: If you look at the market, some books are at

708
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 6: seventy one and a half, somewhere at seventy three and

709
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 6: a half, so it's all over the place. So if

710
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 6: you have access to seventy seven and a half, I

711
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 6: would take the under. Now, you know, when it comes

712
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 6: to Scotty Miller, it absolutely depends on if Antonio Brown's

713
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,720
Speaker 6: gonna play. Twenty and a half seems pretty high. If

714
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 6: Brown's in, I'm smashing that under all day as well.

715
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 6: If you know the one and a half receptions, you

716
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 6: call that too, So I'm going to have the under

717
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 6: on that, and then I guess the other guy who

718
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 6: didn't talk about is tight end, so I'll hold off

719
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 6: on that. But yeah, so if I'm to be attacking

720
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 6: the Godwin under, the Miller under, and the break under,

721
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 6: I think I will correlate that with the Brady passing

722
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 6: yards from earlier.

723
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I actually do think it's it's somewhat

724
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 2: of a tough matchup for Godwin. I remember early in

725
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 2: the season Raybon singing the praises of Algerius Snead, who

726
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 2: at the time was playing on the perimeter and then

727
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: now has been moved into the slot and has just

728
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: really been a shutdown type of guy. Even though he's

729
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: a mid round rookie, He's looked really good, and so

730
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 2: it's it's not an easy matchup for Godwin. He certainly

731
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 2: will move around the formation a little bit, so it's

732
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 2: not as if it's, you know, locked down against al

733
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 2: Jerious Sneed the whole game. But I do think it's

734
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: a tougher matchup for him, and I think it's a

735
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 2: tough matchup just for all of these receivers in general. Raybon,

736
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 2: where are you on the Buccaneers Yeah.

737
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 3: So here's the thing.

738
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 7: Like it, it is a tougher matchup statistically speaking, you know,

739
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 7: we have seen that the Chiefs for two years now

740
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 7: under Steve Spend no be able to funnel the football.

741
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 4: Away from the perimeter.

742
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 7: They play more, they play more cover two show. According

743
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 7: to Sports Info solutions, if you look at the numbers,

744
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 7: then pretty much any other team, whether it's you know, zone,

745
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,720
Speaker 7: whether it's some cover to man. You know, they obviously

746
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 7: have Honey Badger who they can kind of rotate between

747
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 7: coming down to the line and playing deep. But you

748
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 7: also have the situation where it's Tom Brady. There's a

749
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 7: chance that you know, the Chiefs could score points in

750
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 7: a hurry in this one and get up big like

751
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 7: they like they did.

752
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: In the last one.

753
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 7: And uh, you know, passing yards aren't really like they're

754
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 7: like there's a lot of empty passing yards going around

755
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 7: the league these days. So I'm not really comfortable kind

756
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 7: of backing the Bucks unders just based on the pure numbers,

757
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 7: because again you have a situation where just looking at

758
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:53,879
Speaker 7: the looking at it objectively. Uh, the Bucks lost five

759
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 7: games this year, two of them were to the Saints.

760
00:37:58,239 --> 00:37:59,919
Speaker 7: No one else beat them by more than a few,

761
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 7: So this is you know, this is kind of on

762
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 7: this on the spectrum, you know, what a tough game

763
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,280
Speaker 7: for still one of the tougher games for the Bucks,

764
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 7: and they could just be throwing a football more like.

765
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 7: I had the Evans under last week and I thought

766
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 7: that was gonna be money in the bank, and then

767
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 7: he had forty something yards in the first quarter. He

768
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,240
Speaker 7: still ended up going under because he dropped like five passes.

769
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 7: But I think we've we've banked, We've hit the Evans

770
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 7: unders like four or five weeks in a row. I

771
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 7: think going back, a bunch of us are on it.

772
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 7: I think it might be the time to get off,

773
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 7: because you know, this is a Super Bowl and I

774
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 7: don't really see as much value anymore. He's he's the

775
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 7: volatility is just kind of fifty to fifty at this point,

776
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 7: where you know, even with one catch at this point

777
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 7: he could he may go over that. So I think

778
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 7: Godwin's a little more feasible because you did see the Chiefs,

779
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 7: you know, with el Jarious sneed and with don't forget

780
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 7: Honey Badger can play some some slot corner. They limited

781
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 7: Jarvis Landry to twenty yards on ten targets. In a

782
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 7: comeback game script for the Cleveland Browns a couple of

783
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 7: weeks ago in the playoffs. So I think Godwin would

784
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,280
Speaker 7: be the guy. But he's also tough because you plot

785
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 7: his receiving yards this year against his expected receiving yards,

786
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 7: and he must have dropped like four or five hundred

787
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 7: yards of passes over the past few games.

788
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 3: I mean, it's nuts.

789
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 7: So you know, they're kind of both a little bit scary.

790
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 7: But I lean towards Godwin and over Evans because you're

791
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 7: kind of getting that split now where Godwin's had a

792
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 7: great matchup last week, he exploited it. Evans dropped some balls,

793
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 7: and you're seeing that split between them a little too

794
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 7: high and higher than I think it should be.

795
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: All Right, let's talk about the tight ends, and of

796
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 2: course Travis Kelcey is the guy who occupies everyone's thoughts.

797
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 2: And then we have on the buccaneer side, Rob Gronkowski

798
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 2: and Cameron Brad. I'll just say I'm the donkey and

799
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 2: I'm betting over on Gronk, and I almost don't care

800
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong. I will be very happy to be

801
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 2: betting on I don't know if I can say like

802
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 2: he's the greatest tight end of all time in a

803
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: game in which he's going against Gronk. But Kelsey really

804
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 2: is maybe at this point like he has the record

805
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 2: for receiving yards for a tight end. In terms of

806
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 2: what he does, he really might be the most dominant

807
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 2: tight end of all time, and there's nothing to suggest

808
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 2: that the Buccaneers have the ability to stop him. I

809
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 2: believe that they ranked number twenty seven in past DVOA

810
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:29,760
Speaker 2: against tight ends, and Kelsey's usage, especially since I believe

811
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 2: Week eight, has just been absolutely ridiculous. He has since

812
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 2: then ten targets, a minimum of ten targets in every

813
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: game but one, eight receptions in every game but one,

814
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 2: and he's like one hundred yard factory where just it

815
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: feels like almost every week he's just hitting that threshold,

816
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 2: if not hitting it, coming pretty close. So I'm going

817
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 2: over Kelsey seven and a night half receptions over ninety

818
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 2: four and a half yards receiving. Again, I feel like

819
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 2: I'm being a donkey because I know that it's it's

820
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: like the fishy thing to do to bet the over

821
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,359
Speaker 2: on a big name player, but I don't know. I

822
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 2: just think that this is Kelsey spot Sean. Where are you.

823
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 6: Well, I will tell you one thing. Don't bet on

824
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 6: the Kelsey under because everybody will have to remind you

825
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 6: how good Travis Kelsey is. I know how good he is,

826
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 6: so I'm not betting the over under on any of

827
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 6: his receiving props. What I'm going to do instead is

828
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 6: bet on his ceiling and bet on him to win

829
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 6: MVP at fifteen to one. I think that's what I'm

830
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 6: going to do, so I get to that later, but

831
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 6: I'm with you, like, there's no reason to bet against

832
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 6: Kelsey at this point. The books are going to juice

833
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 6: these odds up even more come kickoff time. I bet

834
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 6: they're just getting hammered on the over, and I'm not

835
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 6: going to help them out by betting the under. So,

836
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 6: like I said, I'll mention it in the MVP section,

837
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 6: but I'm going to bet on his ceiling here.

838
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 2: Okay, Rayveon, where are you on? Kill? See?

839
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:02,399
Speaker 3: Yeah?

840
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 7: I don't you know, I don't think there's quite as

841
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 7: much value on straight up, you know, betting the the over,

842
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 7: but I definitely wouldn't bet the under. I think you

843
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 7: know the situation. The thing is with Tyreek Hill is

844
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 7: we saw last week. You know he can he can

845
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 7: put up you know, yards and even you know, the

846
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 7: biggest chunks of anyone in this game, and so that

847
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 7: could kind of impact Kelsey a little bit more than

848
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 7: the other way around, where I think if I had

849
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 7: a better over on Kelsey, I would probably lean toward

850
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 7: the receptions just to to kind of be safe, because again,

851
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 7: I think, you know, they're just going to concentrate the workload,

852
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 7: the workload around these two, these two players, and when

853
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 7: you look at Mahomes's you know we talked about it earlier,

854
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 7: but you know, his completion propit is way up. I mean,

855
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 7: this is just a this is a spot where you

856
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 7: think that the Chiefs are gonna have some volume. So

857
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 7: I can't fault anyone. I'm going over with with Kelsey,

858
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 7: but I don't think there's a ton of value there.

859
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 4: I wouldn't go I wouldn't go under.

860
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 7: In as far as the Bucks guys, I mean, you know,

861
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 7: Gronk had one catch. It was like a screen screen

862
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 7: pass that almost got stopped in the like for like

863
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 7: a one yard loss, and he broke free, and I

864
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 7: mean it's just kind of confounding. But they're using him

865
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 7: very differently than than I expected them to use him

866
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 7: they like more much more of a kind of blocker, uh,

867
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 7: you know than we've seen. And then he did, you know,

868
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,319
Speaker 7: kind of come out last week and run was it

869
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 7: doubles the routes as breat out and still only that

870
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 7: one target. So I do think that you're kind of

871
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 7: buying low on Gronk here, but I think there's actually,

872
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 7: you know, also some value on on Break here, because

873
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,359
Speaker 7: I think he's been the you look at him over

874
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 7: the course of the season and you know, he runs

875
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,959
Speaker 7: half of the routes last week and it's five times

876
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 7: as many targets as Gronk.

877
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 3: Uh.

878
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 7: We know, Arians has always been kind of weird with

879
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,800
Speaker 7: with tight ends, and he's to have settled on on Breton.

880
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 7: Even when Gronk's out there, Brady's not throwing it to him,

881
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 7: So you know, it's it's just kind of a situation

882
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 7: where I know, some of the numbers and the projections

883
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 7: in the season long numbers might you know, give you

884
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 7: weens in a certain direction. But I I say, like,

885
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 7: if I'm betting over then I know a lot of

886
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 7: people will I'm just going with the stars and just

887
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 7: going with the talk in this one, because it's it's

888
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 7: a truck super Bowl. I mean, if you said Brady

889
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 7: and Mahomes would be in the super Bowl at the

890
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 7: beginning of the year, be like, oh yeah, sure, exactly.

891
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 7: So I think it's that kind of game, So truck

892
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 7: for me.

893
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 2: Sewan A couple of things. One, Travis Kelcey had fifteen

894
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: targets last week. Not sure if you know, but he's good.

895
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:45,399
Speaker 4: Uh oh really is Gronk good?

896
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 2: Number Number two questions what are your thoughts on on

897
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 2: these Buccaneers guys.

898
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna pass on the Gronk prop. I actually

899
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,240
Speaker 6: need him to do good for the one I'm actually

900
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 6: gonna bet, but I'm gonna go with the uh camp

901
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,320
Speaker 6: Braid under at three And for options it's it's around

902
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 6: mine one and a half most books. And you know,

903
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 6: Braid's a guy I've been writing since about week eleven.

904
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 6: I think it was when he started to outpace Gronk

905
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,959
Speaker 6: in reps run. That's when I started betting his over.

906
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 6: So I feel like I'm playing with house money at

907
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 6: this point. But last week Rayba mentioned it it started

908
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 6: to shift way back into Gronk's favor. He ran around

909
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:24,760
Speaker 6: sixty two percent of the time versus Bright thirty two percent,

910
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 6: and now Bray was still able to see five targets.

911
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 6: I think he held in four passes. But I think

912
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 6: I'm buying into what Raybam was saying, where this this

913
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 6: is gonna be a Mike Evans bounce back game. You know,

914
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 6: he saw Marshall Lattimore in the wildcard round than jyr

915
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 6: Alexander last last game, So this week against Breeland, I

916
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 6: think he does bounce back. So I think some of

917
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 6: those break targets are going to go Evan's way, and

918
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 6: then Antonio Brown returning will will hit Brake's target rates.

919
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:54,919
Speaker 6: So you know, I think Brad's gonna end with three

920
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 6: catches if I'm being honest, But I think getting the

921
00:45:57,640 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 6: extra hook in a market like this is so valuable.

922
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 6: I just don't see a game plan where they give

923
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 6: him four more catches. So I think I'm going to

924
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 6: bet on him, and in turn, I'm kind of rooting

925
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 6: for Gronk to have a good game, but I'm not

926
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 6: willing to bet Gronk's over, but I'll be on breaks

927
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 6: under here.

928
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 2: All right. I mentioned earlier the idea of Leonard Fournette

929
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 2: as MVP. Sean you mentioned looking at Travis Kelcey and

930
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 2: his upside for MVP. Talk about that bet and any

931
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 2: other MVP MVP bets you are making no just.

932
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 6: Kelsey at fifteen to one, you can still get it.

933
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 6: And when it comes to Kelsey, you're just betting on

934
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 6: his ceiling. Here looking up the past twenty years where

935
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 6: they've been voting this particular style or eighty percent of

936
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 6: it comes from the media, twenty percent from fans. You

937
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 6: know QB wins sixty percent of the time wide receiver

938
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 6: I'm going to say wide receiver slash tight end twenty

939
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 6: percent of the time, and defensive players twenty percent of

940
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 6: the time. I think it's it's pretty clear. With the

941
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 6: fifty six and a half total, we can lower down

942
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 6: the chances of a defensive player winning it. So I

943
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,719
Speaker 6: have that coast of a five to ten percent. I

944
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 6: think the winner will be either quarterback or wide receiver

945
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 6: tight end here, and with Kelsey, you know he's going

946
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 6: to be the first head end to win it. If

947
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 6: he does and you already mentioned it, he broke the

948
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,399
Speaker 6: record for receiving yards for a tight end this year.

949
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 6: He was second in the league in receiving yards. So

950
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 6: if you go back and look at you know, all

951
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 6: the games this year, and to sign if you were

952
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 6: to award an MVP for every game, I peg Kelsey

953
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 6: getting the MVP two to four games this year. There

954
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 6: were some games where you know, he dominated such a

955
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 6: huge amount of the target share that you know, if

956
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 6: you look at week thirteen, Conference Championship, Week eleven, Week fourteen,

957
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 6: I think he would have won it. So I think

958
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 6: his true odds of winning here is closer to you know,

959
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 6: nine to one, ten to one odds. So I think

960
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 6: we're getting some good value here. But like you guys

961
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 6: have mentioned, I think just when it comes to these

962
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 6: big time games, his ceiling is going to be much

963
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 6: much higher in a matchup.

964
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 2: Like this, and that's in resting and you can't get

965
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 2: Kelsey MVP fifteen to one out there, So something to

966
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 2: keep an eye on it. And Sean the the you know,

967
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 2: theoretical MVPs that he would have won in these games.

968
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 2: I think all of them that you mentioned came in

969
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 2: the second half of the season, and so it's you know,

970
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 2: with the volume that he's getting, he really might even

971
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 2: have better MVP odds than the most people would kind

972
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: of be projecting if they're thinking about the entire season,

973
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 2: So something to keep in mind there, Raybond MVP. Any

974
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 2: thoughts that you have here?

975
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 7: Tom Brady plus two ten love I love Brady here

976
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 7: because if you're you know, I mean, you could kind

977
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 7: of use these as a proxy to.

978
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 3: You know, depending on which team you like.

979
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 7: You know, the quarterback odds are, you know, better than

980
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 7: you're going to get for the money lines on both sides,

981
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 7: I think there's a high percentage chance kind of going

982
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 7: along along with what Sean said about, you know, this

983
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 7: is a high total game. I think that really, like

984
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 7: defensive players are completely off limits for me. And that's

985
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 7: that's different from last year when it was I think

986
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 7: it was fifty one. But I think I had some

987
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 7: shares in like Fred Warner and guys like that. You know,

988
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 7: San Francisco is a defensive team, and this one, I

989
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 7: just think that if if the Bucks win, particularly, I

990
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 7: think there's almost no way they don't give it to Brady.

991
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 4: I don't.

992
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 7: I think there's almost no way he doesn't have like

993
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 7: a huge hand in the victory. And you know this,

994
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:25,800
Speaker 7: you know, could be his last super Bowl. He didn't

995
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 7: win it. In his last super Bowl that he won,

996
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 7: Edelman won it actually had him as a long shot play.

997
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 7: But I think that there's just an overwhelmingly high chance that,

998
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,720
Speaker 7: especially with the Bucks makeup where you have God winning

999
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 7: Evans and probably Brown and Bray and Gronk and like,

1000
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 7: there's just a lot of guys that spread he's spreading

1001
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 7: it around to that even if he doesn't have like

1002
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,839
Speaker 7: a huge game, like let's say he actually just hits

1003
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,359
Speaker 7: his player props of like what are they like two

1004
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 7: hundred ninety yards and gets like three touchdowns.

1005
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:56,720
Speaker 4: And they and they win the game.

1006
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 7: I think Brady still gets the awards, So he stands

1007
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 7: out to be at plus two ten, especially over a

1008
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 7: lot of the other long shot guys. I think this

1009
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 7: is Brave versus Mahomes.

1010
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,720
Speaker 2: I think you're right. I think it is the likeliest

1011
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 2: outcome that it is, and you see that in the market,

1012
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 2: the likeliest outcome that it's either Mahomes or Brady. The

1013
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 2: one argument I would make for Fournette is that in theory,

1014
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 2: if we see that Buccaneers defensive line really give problems

1015
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 2: to an offensive line in the Chiefs that is pretty

1016
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 2: injured right now, missing both of its starting tackles, missing

1017
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:41,959
Speaker 2: it's starting left guard, and now I believe the starting center,

1018
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 2: although I might be wrong. Maybe it's just a backup center,

1019
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 2: but one of the centers on the team is also

1020
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: now on the COVID reserve list will probably be ready

1021
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 2: to play for the Super Bowl, but it's certainly missing practice.

1022
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 2: Like this is not the offensive line that the Chiefs

1023
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 2: had last year or that they've had for most of

1024
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 2: this year. I know that Andy is a wizard, and

1025
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 2: he has two weeks to put this offensive line together

1026
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,360
Speaker 2: and create a game plan to try to compensate for

1027
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 2: the weakness of his offensive line against the strength of

1028
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers defensive line. But I'm imagining that if we

1029
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 2: see a scenario where that Buccaneers defense is actually able

1030
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 2: to put some pressure on the homes, get some sacks,

1031
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 2: remember he's not as mobile as he normally is because

1032
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 2: of the toe injury, and then the Buccaneers run the ball,

1033
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:31,879
Speaker 2: and you know that situation of Leonard Fournette actually being

1034
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:35,479
Speaker 2: able to produce against a Chiefs run defense that isn't

1035
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,880
Speaker 2: very good. That's the one scenario where I think Leonard

1036
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 2: Fournette maybe wins over Tom Brady. I still don't think

1037
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 2: it's all that likely of a scenario so I'm with

1038
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 2: you that it's likelier than not that Brady wins. But

1039
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 2: I think if there is someone on the Bucks who

1040
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 2: wins the award who's not Brady, I think that it

1041
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 2: is probably Leonard Fournette and you can get him thirty

1042
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 2: to one. So I don't feel horrible about betting on

1043
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 2: that scenario with that number. As we close out the show,

1044
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: I want to get any thoughts on any other props

1045
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 2: that are out there, whether it's a game total, you know,

1046
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 2: like I like the Buccaneers over twenty four and a

1047
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: half points, or whatever it is the number of sacks

1048
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 2: in this game. There are many markets for this game,

1049
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 2: so any any number that you've come across in your explorations,

1050
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 2: let me know, Sean starting with you, if there's something

1051
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 2: out there that has caught your eye.

1052
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think this is the only game where we

1053
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 6: get a ton of punter props, So I'm going to

1054
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 6: go with a punter prop here. Tampa Bay Buccaneers punter

1055
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 6: Bradley Pinion long at punt under fifty four and a

1056
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:45,439
Speaker 6: half yards you can get at minus one twenty. He's

1057
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 6: only cleared that number in seven of seventeen games this year,

1058
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 6: which is a forty one percent rate. Previous two seasons,

1059
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 6: He's only clear this number in eight of thirty two

1060
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 6: games twenty five percent rate, So it's not like he's

1061
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 6: regressing to anything here. So I love the under here.

1062
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 6: I would think that the Bucks are going to be

1063
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:02,799
Speaker 6: a little more aggressive when it comes to fourth down

1064
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 6: aggressiveness against a team like Chiefs. Maybe they try to

1065
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 6: punt it away from Ekle Harmon. There's just more reasons

1066
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 6: to like the under other than just looking at his

1067
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 6: previous stats. So I love the under here.

1068
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:17,720
Speaker 2: I love the under and I love that you found

1069
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:20,920
Speaker 2: a puncher prop and then actually did research on it.

1070
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 6: All of this that's what the super Bowl's about, man.

1071
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, all of this is fantastic. Raybond anything catch your eye.

1072
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: In the markets that are a little more exotic.

1073
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 7: I mean, I can't compete with a punter prop. Just

1074
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,960
Speaker 7: going back to something we didn't talk about earlier, Patrick

1075
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 7: Mahomes and Tom Brady, I think parlaying both of them

1076
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 7: to throw an interception is interesting. The Buccaneers have forced

1077
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,479
Speaker 7: turnovers in these playoffs on quarterbacks that you know don't

1078
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 7: really turn them all over.

1079
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 4: And then on the other side.

1080
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 7: You had Brady with what was the three picks in

1081
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:57,439
Speaker 7: like seven attempts, and he's I think this is another

1082
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 7: one of those games where he's gonna be he's gonna

1083
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 7: have to throw the ball and just to you know,

1084
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 7: to kind of keep up here. So I think that's

1085
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 7: an interesting one. I'm looking at is parlaying there under

1086
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:09,800
Speaker 7: both of them over one interception.

1087
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 2: All right, I like that one quite a bit. That

1088
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:15,879
Speaker 2: does it for the show. You can follow Sean, Chris

1089
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 2: and Me in the Action Network app at the Underscore.

1090
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 2: Odds maker Chris Raybaon and Matt at the Oracle use

1091
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 2: the app to get real time odds and track your

1092
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 2: bets for free. Be sure to check out all of

1093
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 2: our Super Bowl content at the Action Network and please

1094
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 2: subscribe to and rate and review the show and listen

1095
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:51,359
Speaker 2: and download on Spotify. See you again next episode. We're

1096
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 2: finished talking