WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 7 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.000 Check it down man Now down Many On Thursday, October 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.520 twenty one one is the Beating of the Book podcast 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:21.239 Megapod live from the D in downtown Las Vegas. Kill Alexander, 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:24.520 Thanks for listening as always, appreciate it every week this year. 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:27.840 Great feedback on every show, including every guest, some to 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:30.120 the good, some of the you know, indifferent, some to 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.400 the hey, we didn't like that guy. Hey it's all right. 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:36.320 Ace Triumphant return to the pod last week. Uh, super 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:39.239 well received. Loved having Ace back here. Today we have 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:41.280 another esteem guest. First of the staples of the show 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.360 though to my left at the D, Vice President Operations 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:48.080 at Circuit Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and also co host, 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:50.720 although he might consider himself a host one I don't know. 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:54.720 Co host of the Lead of Lead Lead Lead Lead 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:58.600 Hosts of Odds on at Visa in weekdays at eleven 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:02.080 am Pacific two pm Eastern is Michael Palm. You know, Mikey, 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:04.640 I'm doing great. Hello James, how are you good? To 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:07.080 hear from you again. Todd is always in the Gillionaire 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:09.440 Thank you. By the way, I didn't hear this, Mikey, 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:11.560 but somebody told me that a mam was arguing they 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.080 shouldn't have gone for it on fourth down when Josh 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:17.560 Allen's slipped. That's correct? Correct? Is that right? What was 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:21.560 what was his reasoning? His reasoning was you go to 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:24.880 overtime with the better team. Yeah, but you have a 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:27.680 much better chance of winning the game then, and if 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:29.800 you don't make it and kicked the field book, it's 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:32.840 still gonna have the same Derrick Henry's killing you too. 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:36.520 They had struggled in the red zone. They don't look 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:38.880 I I moved on, wasn't it you moved on? Todd 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:41.080 wishing it from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:44.000 By the way, somebody on Twitter got really mad at 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.120 me for continually saying that you're from your mom's cork Addy, 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:48.760 But it wasn't that. They were mad at the mom's 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:50.400 cork attic park. They're like, why do you have to 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:52.600 keep saying where he's from? I was like, oh, I'm 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.080 sorry about that. I didn't know you're really upset. I mean, 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.120 I mean, it is it's it's it's a bit much. 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.720 But you know, I said, no, it's not. We say 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.240 we're from the d Why is it any different? Okay, 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:05.360 you know what, You're right. Thank you. By the way, 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.120 that's Todd's way of saying, I don't think you're right, 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:11.800 but actually I am right. Thanks Todd. Gentleman. James Salinas, 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:15.760 he's got a real job, Dodd. Stop talking. James Salinas, 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:17.919 everybody co host of it now? What is the name 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.000 of your show on the Weekend's James James a former 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:24.160 Super Contest winner. He won over nine hundred thousand dollars 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:26.520 taking home the Super Contest prize. Then he had the 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:29.440 audacity to finish third the following year. Let he finished 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:32.200 twenty six two years after that. What's the name of 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.040 the new show, James, A great to have you. It 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.600 is the Pro Football Blitz and I do it with 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.880 Brady Cannon, another former Super Contest winner from back in 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:43.840 the day. And so we're we do both Saturday and Sunday. 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:47.080 And obviously it's just like it sounds pro football. That's it. 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:49.400 That's the whole focus. We narrow the focus. We know 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:51.480 we got so many other sports going on right now. 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:53.919 And you know, you guys were talking about where we 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:56.160 were for Monday Night football. Should they have went forward 0:02:56.200 --> 0:03:00.000 on fourth down with the Buffalo bills, and I've am 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:02.200 right they should have done, especially with the leverage that 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:05.840 I had on the bills, just to win on the money. 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.560 And so but we're not we're moving past week six 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:10.600 because weeks Week six was a shitty week for me 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.560 last week, and now I'm also have to move past 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:15.840 We're not talking baseball here right because we don't want 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.200 to get otherwise I'm gonna get a little salty kill 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:20.440 I have, but it this way. I was on the 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.919 Red Sox unders the last two games, so we say 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:27.280 how those played out. And then unfortunately I was very 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:30.360 sober yesterday and didn't decide to go chase, and so 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.000 I didn't chase a couple of winners that would have 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.120 had late last night. So anyhow, we've moved on. We're 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:36.680 moving on to week seven for the NFL. So great 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:38.840 to be on with all you gentlemen. As always each 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:40.920 and every year, fellas, We're really appreciative because I know 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:43.800 you have a day job, very very important day job 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:47.280 there in Colorado at Denver that you making time to 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:51.000 do this, So I am super thankful. Um. Those unders. 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:53.360 By the way, the last two games that series were brutal, 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:55.880 just absolutely brutal. Especially the one you were in. I'm 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.640 still getting over the Giants. So and now my Dodgers 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:01.840 future from March looks very precarious. So it's the uh, 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:04.760 it's it's just not going well. James. Is it true 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.360 that your co host on the Blitz actually legally changed 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:12.480 his name to former Super Contest champion Brady Cannon? Because 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:14.720 and every and every time I hear it, and every 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:16.839 piece of Vista copy it says that. I mean, so 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:21.480 I thought maybe it was illegal name change? Brady? What 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:26.080 ye were you? James? Brady one? There was like seven 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:29.480 other guys in it, and I mean it was James. 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.720 And I feel bad that the the under in the 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:34.840 in the Astros game that is as bad as they come. 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.600 Well and and and so I don't know how much 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:41.039 our time constraints are here, but ultimately see that's the 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.719 problem is. Yeah, it was leaning right up to and 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:45.880 I wanted to jump on the braves probably braves. I 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.240 found him out here like plus one ninety plus one 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:50.599 before it started, but they were kind of overlapping and 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:52.800 I wanted to roll it over, like okay, maybe I'll 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:57.360 just I'll be I'll the square, the sober square, betting 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.920 conscious of Ward Cleaver came out like, new, we won't 0:04:59.920 --> 0:05:01.640 be chasing any bets, we won't have any of that, 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:03.800 and so just wait and we'll see how it plays out. 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:05.440 And then obviously they dumped it, and then they even 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:07.440 got more square. I was like, well, I'm not gonna 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.839 chase it. No, did I chase that last night with 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:12.360 the Braves? And then I didn't chase the Nuggets last 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.400 night and the Revenge spot going into Phoenix and they 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:16.400 win the freaking game, right, So we move on to 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.720 week seven on Thursday. Yes, I did not know Ward 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:23.040 Clever used to bet. I missed that episode. I just 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:27.160 have that. Well, it's just this square better voice that 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:30.160 comes in that just says, no, James, we won't be 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:32.480 chasing any bets this evening. You're just gonna play and 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:34.520 you'll go on move on to the next day. Now. 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:36.080 I'm telling you, I know you guys don't do it. 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:39.200 I know you guys don't drink. But usually when I 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.440 bet and I drink, that's when I get pretty froggy 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:43.320 with it. And I'm not afraid to get jiggy and 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:45.320 the fire away at it. And I was very sober 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:47.320 last night, and so I did not do. I did 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:49.400 not chase anything, and now I wish that I would 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.400 have because they both came in and think about how 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:53.680 the Braves just completely dominated that game. I don't know 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.600 what the hell where the Dodgers are messing with their 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:58.680 pitching staff, and I don't want to. I don't want 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:00.480 to get off on a tangent here where we're moving 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:05.760 to now be if you don't want to make square bets, Mike, 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.520 you like I got, I got it possibly lucky in 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:10.680 that game last night, I bet over nine and a 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:15.120 half flo and after two winnings of Framber Valdez, I said, 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.200 this is a loser. Let me bet first five under 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.000 three and a half. We got there both. Well, I 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:20.560 mean I've written the nine and a half of her. 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.000 You know, I'm just trying to get off the bet. 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:24.080 You you bet the Braves already bet the Braves plus 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.160 one thirty and I haven't for the series plus one ninety. 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:28.360 Normally I wouldn't bet them because I'm piling onto my bet, 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.640 but I think this numbers. I think the Braves should 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.920 be favored today. No no Turner, no Muncy, no Turner, 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:37.800 no month getting overused and misused bullpen What do you 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:39.920 and and this is the point needs to be made. 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.279 This is not armchair quarterbacking with Davy Roberts. This is 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:44.240 at the moment you're like, what are you doing? As 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.440 far back as Game five against the Giants, I said 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:48.680 in Game five, why are you hitting for Jensen? Let 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:51.560 Jensen close this game? You'd only thrown eleven pitches. If 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:53.400 you go down with your clothes, you go down with them. 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:55.560 Screwed up shuts or for Game two now he needs 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:58.919 extra rest. Screwed up Game two with your and screwed 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:01.919 up game it up. Game four with Orius, Mark Borcherd 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:03.839 had the best line. If you're going to be the 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:06.480 Tampa Bay Rays, be the Tampa Bay Rays all season, 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:08.559 don't show up in the postseason and become the Tampa 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:10.680 Bay Race. Why why did they decide to play it 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:12.559 this way? It was so dumb. You know our guys, 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:15.440 Josh Towers has banged this drum for years. You don't 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:17.880 make a starter reliever. It's totally out of his prep 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:19.800 of what he's doing to go in and relieve. You 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:23.280 can't just flip flop him all right, circumillions, there's a 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.320 guy that's twenty six and four in the circumedions. I 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.200 think if this Todd, if you went one and four 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:30.280 the first week and you were perfect the next five weeks, 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:33.560 you'd be tied. And here's the other thing. The guy 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:35.240 is twenty six and four. You only has a one 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.200 game lead. He's a one game leader. I'm Ted seven 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:39.400 and one and I have a game and a half. 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.560 Leat on, Todd, I've got more air than this count. 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:43.280 Let me ask you guys a question. And I'm talking 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:45.440 to super content winner and James Lenis when I say this, 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:47.560 so I better be careful how I say this. This 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:51.400 year in particular, though, but NFL in general, the size 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:54.760 of the pool of players is going to mathematically randomly 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.760 produce someone who does that. Right now, That's not to 0:07:57.760 --> 0:07:59.360 take anything away from the guy who did it, because 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:00.760 he said, and they go, well, it's me, it's me, 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:04.800 I'm doing it. But come on and four, like, what 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:08.520 percentage of that is skill? And what is just a squirrel? Fine? 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:10.760 And nut after nut, there's a school people are out 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:12.200 there saying, faith this guy the rest of the way 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:15.280 because it's got to regret Scot to right. Good for him, though, 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:18.200 you know he's probably gonna regress to fifty fifty, that's 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:21.840 what will happen. But the somebody has to get lucky. Gil. 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.640 So this guy, so, this guy is going to be 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:26.280 the one who you know, I mean he might he 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:30.360 might be playing at a rate you know, in basic 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:33.000 but still you know, obviously he's not gonna be twenty 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:34.800 six and four in the next thirty picks. I'll take 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:38.280 the actor on that. How about how well? And and 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:41.200 here's the other thing Gil and fellas with this is 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.400 so I think about the year I won the Super Contest. 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.800 I was twenty four five and one after week six, 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:50.640 so same spot here, obviously not quite as good. But 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.720 then the gravity of where you stand after you weeks, 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:56.040 like all the dust is settled. You look at the standings, 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:58.320 you're like when you when you enter the contests. Yeah, 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:00.160 there's two thousand people in it. I'll take a shot, 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:03.320 see where it happens. Why not me? And realistically, you've 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.760 you have expectations, but you also have realistic expectations like 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:08.480 it's hard as hell to try to beat the NFL 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.200 and then win a big contest like this, and then 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:12.240 all of a sudden, after six weeks, you're sitting at 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:13.640 the top of the standards. You look at the top. 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.760 It's like, damn, I am up there, sweet, and then 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:19.000 it's like, holy crap, I still got eleven more weeks 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:20.559 to play. And in this case, here what we got 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:23.679 twelve more weeks to play? Right a long way and 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.560 so then the gravity starts to hit you where you 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.080 stand exactly right, and so you have and for me, 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:31.880 I was able to sustain, sustain, sustain, each and every week, 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:35.319 but it didn't keep the hard and it's right, what 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:40.360 was the rest of your I finished? I finished fifth? 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:46.400 I finished? It was like fifty nine some three and five. 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:49.160 I don't know, does that? Does that math work? Whatever 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:53.160 that was? You were probably around the way or something 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.880 like that. Maybe maybe something like that. Yeah, and yeah, 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:57.880 I wasn't gonna continue on that same pace for the 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:01.040 next twelve eight eleven weeks. But it's just the mental 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.320 piece to it, because it's such a long season, and 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:05.080 then all of a sudden you're like, why not me? 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.160 When you enter the contest and now I was at 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.239 your top of the the top dog on the contest 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:13.200 after six weeks. It's a lot of pressure each other 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:15.240 week that at least you start to put on yourself 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:17.520 knowing you have a bad week, and there's so many 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:20.440 it's so condensed, right, It's the compression is so close. 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:22.960 You talked about Mike said, how close. Everybody else is 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.440 right there. And because the field is so huge, you 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:27.560 have a bad week, you're gonna see yourself tumble. So 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:30.720 it's a lot of pressure before Sunday comes making the picks, 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:32.360 and you've got to be very decisive. You can't doubt 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:34.600 yourself going forward. Let me just ask you one question, though, 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.800 So at what point, because you had not one great season, 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:41.280 but you had two, maybe even three great seasons, like 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:45.040 when you have that kind of run, And maybe this 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:47.200 is a question for now more than then, but I 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:48.840 was going to couch it as a then question, like 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:53.160 at what point do you acknowledge you're getting the good 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:57.120 bounces in addition to good handicapping or now maybe even 0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:01.720 more more more interesting Lee, as you look back on 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:05.400 that run because you can't sustain it forever, what do 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.160 you think of now? Like what if it was you? 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.680 What if it was just of that middle games that 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:13.839 just they all went your way? Like how do you 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:18.640 view it now? I think each the first two seasons 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.600 when it was first and third were different. First season 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.439 not having any expectations getting in when I wanted was 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.560 the first year that I played, and then being on 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.839 top all right, just focus one week at a time 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.760 and then reflecting back. It was really what I was doing. 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:33.559 I didn't take a lot of really didn't take a 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:35.480 lot of typically don't take a lot of favorites, but 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:37.760 I wasn't taking those big underdogs. I was finding those 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.960 numbers that were anywhere between pick them and three, just 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:42.960 to let me just find the winner. And any of 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:44.760 those that I was taking three, where was the favorite 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.400 of the underdog? They recovering? And that was really the 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.679 big difference for me is all those games that were 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.559 kind of coin flip games, they were land if I'm 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:55.719 calling tales, they're landing tails each week. Those were coming through. 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.600 I think in the second year. It was really the 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.840 interesting thing Gill is each and every year, my worst 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.080 month is always October. I don't know what the hell 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.840 it is about October, but these lines get sharper, and 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.080 then we saw last week the favorites just killed it. 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.000 But then things start to regress stores and they come 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.880 back to the mean come November, and where you were 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:17.760 in October and teams were in September and October, a 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:19.760 lot of them fade back, and you see that happen 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:22.760 with contestants in the Super Contest tour and then circum millions. 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:24.720 Now that this third year going, so I think for me, 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.319 it was different in that second year in the Super 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:29.400 Contest when I came in third, it was all about 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.480 the second half of the season really getting dialed in 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:34.480 on teams and whether it was favorites underdogs, it didn't 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:36.800 really matter. It wasn't numbers. I was playing teams as 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:38.760 opposed to numbers in the second half of the season 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:40.559 and went on a great run to be in that spot. 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.440 So it's kind of different each and every year when 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:44.680 I've had good success. All right, well I have invited 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.200 you in October, so maybe that was the uh, what's 0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:54.240 with October and people associated with Denver that's so big? Yeah, 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.200 all right? And then and then Survivor well, so once 0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.440 again the No Pick was second instead of third. This 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:03.080 week amazing nineteen Broncos ten, No Pick, seven, Dolphin, four Brown, 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.199 two Lion, only one points and to build only one 0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:08.920 percent of the two percent of the pool out we 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:13.800 lost forty four going from twenty four, I said, make 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:15.800 a number. Yes, know that the no pick will be 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:21.760 the most eliminations this week? Oh wow, this week. No, 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:23.439 this week it's gonna be you'd get a lot of 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.720 plus money for this way, because there's this week it's splintered. 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:27.840 I think. So, somebody, do you think one of these 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:30.560 big favorites will lose? There's six games that about the 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:34.480 biggest favorites, but somebody's gonna lose. Um. We had a 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.920 Joe Pete and I had a little exchange off air, 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.240 and we'll get to our picksure. Joe Peter and I 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:41.319 had to exchange how many people do you think will 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:43.040 be how many entrance do you think will be left 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:46.760 and survivor after week twenty week twenty of your contest. 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.800 He had a buddy he said two hundred and something. 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:53.640 He had a buddy who said one hundred and not 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:57.800 even on I said nineties six. I think there's gonna 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.480 be a lot of eliminations coming um Thanksgiving and Christmas 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:08.640 with um and a half. Well, there's three times as 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.440 many interests thirty five last year, right, I mean I'll 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.400 take under. I'll take under both of you. I say 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.480 under because of that Thanksgiving in Christmas, he's going to 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.920 really hurt. Yeah, so I'm going under nineties. So you 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:23.920 know you're saying there's gonna be ninety six winners at 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.440 the end of this year. I went below the other 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.760 two guesses. Yeah, I said nineties. I'm going under even 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:35.360 one can make a real bed. Let's make a real hunt. 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.280 Remember making a prices right reference, Not that you know 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:41.760 you're a small bat. All right? Uh, Todd, As much 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:43.600 as I hate to ask you to go through it, 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:47.480 how do we do last week? Well, the records they 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:49.760 didn't They're not exactly tennis. Let's put it that way. 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:53.840 Let's set it that way. It's not tennis. It's not tennis. 0:14:54.280 --> 0:15:01.200 Andrew Siva Ventra No Nova did not cover. Uh. I 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.760 am making a reference to the fact that Gilly Ice 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:06.920 continues to be red hot with the tennis picks, and 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:09.800 uh not as hot here in the National Football League. 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:11.560 He went oh in three last week to fall to 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:15.560 five and thirteen against the spread, but his teasers are 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.880 still at four, one and one after he finally lost 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.160 his first teaser last week, Mikey with a strong two 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.680 and one with the luckiest cover in the history of 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:30.280 the National Football League when the Dallas cow Girls decided 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:34.040 to throw it deep and he got him the minus 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:36.040 three and a half, which he certainly did not deserve. 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:40.320 He goes to ten seven and one, but he is 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.960 four and two in teasers, which is the important category. 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.920 I am was two in one last week, including beating 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:49.880 eight straight up on that over forty nine and a 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:52.160 half in the Cleveland, Arizona game to go to nine 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.600 and nine, and I am still the leader even after 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:56.880 I lost my teaser at five and one on teasers. 0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.920 So that's where we are. Gilly Ice about to turn 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.720 it around because he's gonna take the Kansas City Andrew 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:06.040 Nova's this week. How do you have what my magic 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:11.200 number over guilt is? Right now? By the way, I'll 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:12.960 still say it. I'll say it again. There is no 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.000 question I'm the man to beat on teasers, none whatsoever. Well, 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:17.840 look now, I just made up a game on Todd 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:19.440 to teaser since I got to go last, and he 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:21.560 doesn't have to copy my pick every week. Tod's not 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:27.600 The guys just loves it. There you go. You can 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:29.800 get the guy a popcorn. You'll be like, oh it's 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.800 not big, big one, you know. You get him of 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.200 glass of wine. I don't like this line. There's always 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.920 some problem, alright, Best bets, Best bets time now now, James, 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:40.920 Not only have I invited you in October, which you said, 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:44.720 for some reason is your worst month historically. You know, 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:47.440 I don't know if there's any any basis for that, 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.360 but I've invited you on week seven. I did not 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.440 look ahead when I invited you a week seven and say, hey, 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:55.560 is week seven a fun week? It is not a 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:59.280 fun Week six buys only thirteen games, and of the 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:01.960 thirteen game you have one tonight Thursday Night Football. By 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:03.040 the way, before we get to our best bets, we 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:05.040 should talk about Thursday Night Thursday Night, where there's all 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.000 kinds of Michigus on the brown side in terms of injuries, 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:11.080 so that game is all also for COCTA. And then 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:13.719 you have the other remaining twelve games, three which are 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:16.600 massive double digits, one that's teetering on double digits to 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.520 others that are around a touchdown. So that leaves six 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:23.480 games that really have shorter spread. So it's a it's 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.320 a rough week man. Well, Thursday Night Football thoughts before 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:27.720 we get the best bets, James, do you have any 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.239 play on tonight's game? No, Baker Mayfield, no Nick Chubb, uh, 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:35.240 No Kareem Hunt, no Odell Beckham Jr. It appears Jarvis 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.639 Landry will play in that Jedrick Wills will play, but 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.280 we don't know about Jadeveon Clowney and others either. So 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:46.240 the Browns are Bridgewater is playing well and no. So 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.159 I don't have a play on this. I typically try to. 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:50.840 We already know Thursdays are kind of quirky, and I 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:52.840 don't play them in any of the contest for sureks 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:54.880 I don't want to put an all five plays on Thursday. 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:57.800 But also I rarely played these Thursday games a lot 0:17:57.840 --> 0:17:59.320 of time. If I'm gonna play, it's end game. But 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.639 you're talking about you talked about all the injuries to 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:05.159 the Cleveland side, Well, Denver, I mean they're down to 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:07.480 seats and stems at the linebacker position, and we know 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:09.840 that the strength of the Browns is gonna be running 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.480 the football. Denver Broncos have eight linebackers on injured reserve, 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.800 including all four starters. That's where Vic Fangio, That's where 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:19.360 his defense starts. He doesn't start up front and move back. 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:21.399 He starts on the back end. Those back seven and 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.000 It starts at the linebacker position. This is not the 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.639 Dome Patrol going into this game for the Denver Broncos, 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.080 and I think that's gonna be the struggle here is 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:32.800 at least you know what the identity of the Cleveland 0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.399 Browns are. Regardless of where they're banged up on the 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:37.640 line of scrimmage with the offensive line and who's gonna 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:40.600 be running the football for Cleveland, They're gonna be able 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:44.720 to attack in between the hashes against the Denver Broncos 0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:47.320 based on all the injuries that they have at the 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:49.520 linebacker spot. And I think that's where you can attack 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:51.800 him running the football. You can also attack him in 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:53.639