WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: August 25, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:04.200 Live from the Bloomberg Interacted Burger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:08.039 day Break for Thursday, August two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:12.240 the highly anticipated Jackson Whole Symposium kicks off today. We 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:15.240 are there with the latest. China takes steps to stimulate 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:19.040 its economy. Shipmaker and video gives it disappointing sales forecast. 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:21.720 I mean, the latest reaction to President Biden's planned to 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:25.240 forgive a portion of student loans held by millions. The 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:29.480 NYPD has ordered no unnecessary talking among police officers were 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.280 lowing in the streets lust. The Uvaldi, Texas school police 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:35.080 chief has been fired. I'm Michael bar More Ahead, I'm 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:37.760 John Stashower and sports a long time giant back at 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.479 practice the Mets, but get a homestand against Colorado. The 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:45.400 Yankees start a road trip in Oakland. That's all trended 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:49.320 ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:54.200 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:58.920 Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, Syrius XM one nine team 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.760 and around the world. Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:08.479 and via the Bloomberg Business app. Good morning. I'm Nathan 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:12.040 Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow. US DOT Index futures on 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:14.400 the rise this morning. We are coming up to six 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:16.440 oh one on Wall Street. We take the markets every 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:19.120 fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on bloomberg S and 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.480 P futures up about nineteen points this morning, down futures 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.040 of eighty one and nasday futures of sixty nine. The 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.280 decks in Germany is little changed. Ten your treasury of 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:30.920 five thirty seconds, you know, three point oh eight per cent, 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:33.080 and they yield on the two year three point three 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:37.560 six percent. Nine max screwed oil that'll change at cents 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.199 of barrel, Nathan, Karen. It is the event Wall Street's 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.280 been waiting for all week. The Federal Reserves Annual Jackson 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:47.000 Whole Economic Symposium kicks off today and Bloomberg's Tom Keen 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.080 is in Jackson Hole covering it for us. Nathan and 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:53.200 Karen hugely anticipated Jackson Hole. Some of them have been 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:56.360 really pretty quiet. But we look out today and into 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.680 the chairman speech Friday, and we can say this time 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.480 is different. We've got markets on the move, we've got 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.720 foreign exchange in the move, but far more We've got 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:10.400 this huge Transatlantic divide, the difference in the economies of 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:14.720 Europe and a beleaguer United Kingdom and a relatively strong 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.839 United States. All right, Tom, Thanks? Please stick with Tom 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.079 Keene and the rest of the Bloomberg team for complete 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:23.040 live coverage of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Tom, along with 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:26.200 Lisa Abramowitz and Jonathan Farrell, will have a special edition 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.359 of Bloomberg Surveillance beginning next hour seven am on both 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.639 Bloomberg Radio and television. Well, Nathan, As Tom mentioned that 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.639 key event at Jackson Hole takes place tomorrow and Fed 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:39.640 Sherman J. Powell delivers a highly anticipated speech. Charles Schwab, 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:43.080 chief investment strategist Liz Anne Saunders does not think the 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:46.320 FED will change course and pivot to cutting rates. In 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:49.799 my mind, the only condition under which the FED would 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.560 so quickly move to a rate cutting mode would not 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.399 just be a retreat and inflation. I think that would 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.120 damage their credibility if they went to rate cutting simply 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.480 because inflation has started to come down. That would only, 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:05.800 I think, be preceded by a much more significant wortioning 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:08.640 in the economy than what we already have here, and 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:11.880 or a much more significant wortioning in the labor market. 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:15.640 Charles Schwaba, chief investment strategist Liz and Saunders says she 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.040 could see the FED pivoting to slower rate hikes rather 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:22.000 than rate cuts. As you mentioned, Karen, us futures are 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:24.679 higher ahead of Jackson Hole. In Asia, stock shows for 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.520 the first time in six sessions as investors welcomed an 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:30.600 extra hundred forty six billion dollars in pledge stimulus from 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:34.240 Chinese authorities. Let's get the recap from Bloomberg's Juliette Sally 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:37.080 in Singapore Morning. Juliette, Good morning, Karen and Nathan. The 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.360 m s CI Asia Pacific Index jumped the most in 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.880 two weeks, driven by gains across the region, including in Japan, China, 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.600 Hong Kong, and South Korea. Trade in Hong Kong was 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:47.920 shotted in the morning session due to a storm morning, 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:50.160 but equities jumped the most in two weeks in the 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:53.160 afternoon session on the back of the China stimulus announcement. 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:55.880 The Aussie also Rosa's trade has met. The stimulus would 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:59.840 boost demand for commodities in Singapore. Juliette Sally Bloomberg Daybreak 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:02.200 right Juliet, thank you. A couple of stocks here in 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:04.360 the US on the move in the pre market, shares 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:07.000 of in Video down four percent and early trading. The 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.760 chip maker gave a disappointing forecast for the current quarter, 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:14.280 and we get the details from Bloomberg's Doug Kristner. Just 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.279 two weeks ago, in Video warned sales for its recent 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:20.679 quarter would come in well below original expectations. A drop 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.560 in demand for PC gaming chips got to blame, along 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:27.280 with challenging market conditions. Well now, guidance for the current 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:30.520 quarter suggest the slump is going to last. For Q three, 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.800 revenue will be about five point nine billion dollars, roughly 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.880 a billion below the average analyist testament, and Video is 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:41.120 contending with a rapid shift from supply shortages to ballooning 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:44.520 stockpiles of unsold products. In New York on Doug Christner 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:47.040 Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Doug. Thanks On the flip side, 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:51.080 shares of Snowflake are surging more than seventeen percent. Let's 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:53.280 get more on that life from Bloomberg's or Needy Young. 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.119 Good morning, Granita, Good morning Nathan. The company which helps 0:04:56.160 --> 0:05:00.320 businesses organized data in the cloud projected quarterly products sales 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:04.280 that will top estimates. Snowflake charges customers based on how 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.520 much they use its data storage and analytics products, rather 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.679 than charging a flat rate subscription. Now you may recall, 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:14.400 Snowflake rose to prominence in September of twenty with one 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:16.400 of the biggest U s I p o s for 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.640 a software company, but ever since reaching a record share 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:23.279 price of almost four two dollars in the November, the 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:27.720 stock has tumbled. Live in Washington, I'm really need a 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:30.440 young Bloomberg daybreak, all right, Ray to thank you well. 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.279 Shares of Tesla are up one and a half percent 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.040 in early trading. We get the reason why from Bloomberg's 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:39.719 Jeff Bellinger. A three for one split of Tesla stock 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:43.040 went into effect after the markets closed yesterday. The split 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:47.320 adjusted shares begin trading today. Tesla said when it proposed 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.320 the split that it wanted to be able to offer 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:53.000 equity options to every employee, but stock in the electric 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.560 vehicle maker will also be more affordable for retail investors 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:00.040 looking to buy individual shares. Employees who are invested it 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.960 in the company stand to benefit if you investors pushed 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:06.880 the stock higher. Jeff Budinger Bloomberg Day Break. All right, Jeff, Thanks, 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:09.400 let's starting to Washington, where President Biden's made his long 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:12.880 awaited announcement on student loan forgiveness. He's canceling ten thousand 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:14.840 dollars in college debt for Americans who are in less 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:17.400 than a hundred twenty five thousand, twenty thousand if they 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.640 received a pell grant. And he's also extending the pause 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:21.920 on repayments through the end of the year, capping them 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:25.400 at five percent of monthly income. All this means people 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:28.400 can start finally crawl out from under that mountain of 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:31.840 debt again on top of the rent and the utilities. 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:35.160 But the move by President Biden's adding to concerns about inflation. 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:38.440 Rick Davis is a contributor for Bloomberg Politics. It just 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:41.440 took a year for Biden the past the Inflation Reduction Act, 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:44.400 which which reduced the national debt by just under three 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:48.240 hundred billion dollars. He just added five hundred billion dollars 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:53.000 including the extension maybe even more uh to replace that. 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:56.560 Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis spoke with our Washington correspondent 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:59.560 Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Sound on Catch the Program weekdays 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.960 at five pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Well, Nathan, futures 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:05.520 are higher this morning. S and P futures have nineteen 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:09.120 points down, futures have eighty four and hasdeck futures up 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.040 seventy two. Ten year treasury of four thirty seconds held 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:15.400 three eight percent straight. I had your latest local headlines 0:07:15.520 --> 0:07:23.400 plus a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg King. 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:25.440 Thank you. Six oh seven on Wall Street, seventy four 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:28.040 degrees in Central Park. Got an accident in the outbound 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.120 Holland Tunnel. It will tell you that in traffic in 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:32.560 just a few minutes. First Michael Barr with what else 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:34.440 is going on in New York and around the world. 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.240 Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. The MTA will hold 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:40.760 a meeting today about congestion pricing. The public will get 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.960 a chance to speak about the controversial plan. Some drivers 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:46.600 could see up to twenty three dollars every time they 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:50.600 drive into certain parts of Manhattan. The NYPD ordered officers 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:54.280 to stop unnecessary chatting while on the job. The New 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:57.320 York Post reports the orders came from a department wide memo. 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:01.520 Several weeks ago. Mayor Eric Adams was courted criticizing officers 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:05.000 were standing around talking while working. Adam said they should 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:08.480 spread out for better coverage. The school district police chief 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.600 in Yvaldi, Texas was fired last night. The school board 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:15.440 voted unanimously to release police Chief pet Eredondo. The motion 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:20.560 was introduced by Trustee Laura Perez and received unanimous support. Finally, 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:24.640 I moved to authorize the superintendent to issue written notice 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:29.559 to Mr. Rodondo of this board action, including filing any 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:34.920 needed reports required by the termination. Trustee Laura Perez and 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:38.280 community members slammed Eredondo for what they said was his 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:41.280 slow response and all of the children who died as 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:44.240 a result of that mass shooting. The widow of the 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.200 late Kobe Bryant has been awarded sixteen million dollars in 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.880 a lawsuit against Los Angeles County. Vanessa Bryant had sue 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.200 the county after pictures taken by a sheriff's deputy and 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:58.560 firefighter at the Kobe Bryant helicopter crash site were shared 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.000 with a number of people. She called that an invasion 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:04.600 of privacy, which led to emotional distrust. The Biden administration 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:08.640 has one in Idaho judges order ensuring women abortions in 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.800 medical emergencies. More from Bloomberg's head Baxter, the Idaho law 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:14.920 had to find the right to abortion to a woman 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:17.920 whose life was in danger. The judge ruled it too 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:21.319 narrow and then ruled that there would be no prosecution 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:26.360 of doctors who perform abortions in an emergency. Now, just yesterday, 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:30.040 a Texas judge ruled the other way. The conflicting ruling 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:33.280 show the patchwork of abortion laws on the books, but 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:36.760 it does give the Biden administration some precedent to continue 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:40.960 to pursue cases in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter, Bloomberg 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.960 day Break, Global News twenty four hours a day on air, 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:47.720 end on Bloomberg Quick to empowered by more than journalists 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:51.160 and analysts more than twenty countries. Michael bar this is Bloomberg, Nathan, 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:57.880 Thank you, Michael six o nine on Wall Street. Time 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.880 for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stish Alright, Nathan 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:02.800 Well earned days off for the Mets and the Yankees 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:04.960 back tonight. Metsal left, Jacob M. Graham on the mounta 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:07.800 At City Field against Colorado, started a ten game homestand 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.520 the Dodgers in Washington will follow in the Atlanta Braves 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:13.479 one again, fourteen to two in Pittsburgh, and the Braves 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.280 are only a game and a half behind the Mets. 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:17.280 Yankees are tonight in Oakland. That's a team that is 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:19.960 twenty and forty one at home. The Yanks have won 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:21.839 three in a row, all by the same score, a 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:24.480 four to two. The Giants lost the wide receiver and 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.400 got one back. Colin Johnson looked good in the two 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:29.880 preseason wins. He had eleven catches, but he just tore 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:33.360 his achilles in practice, just as Sterling Shepherd, entering his 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:36.080 seventh season with the Giants, made his first appearance at 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.520 practice back from his achilles injury suffered late last season. 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.920 Giants and Jets have their annual preseason games Sunday afternoon 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.960 at Medlife. NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Dawson has died 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.800 at eighties seven quarterback Kansas City to an upset win 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:52.720 a Super Bowl four. The PGA Tour responded the players 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:56.000 leaving for the new Live Tour with new policies and initiatives, 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.520 more bigger events, a commitment from top players to play 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:03.000 in them, more prize money at those events. For the commissioners, 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:05.520 Jim Monahan, this is a remarkable time for the Tour. 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:10.120 We have and always will be the ultimate platform for 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.320 player who wants to compete for the trophies and the 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.199 titles that matter most. To now have our top players 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:20.880 rally around this organization and commit to a portfolio of 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:25.000 tournaments like never before. Ronahan worked with the likes of 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.480 Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy on these new policies. No 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.480 lack of prize money on the line this weekend season. 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:31.680 Any Tour championship teas off today in Atlanta in the 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:35.160 winner wins eighteen million dollars. John stash were Bloomberg Sports, 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.680 Thanks John SMP futures up eighteen points, Staff futures up 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.559 eighty NAZAC futures up seventy one p ten. Your treasury 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.000 is up three thirty seconds. Deal three point zero nine 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.520 percent yield on the two year three point three seven 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.280 All this ahead of the kick off the the Jackson 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:56.040 Whole Economic Symposium. Talk more about what Chairman Powell might 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:59.560 have to say tomorrow morning. Ira Jersey, Chief US Right 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:04.439 Strategy for Bloomberg Intelligence joins us. Next, this is Bloomberg, 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.839 Bloomberg eleven three o other sunny in your ninety today 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:12.960 Maybe a late day shower storm Tomorrow opper eighties, mostly 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:15.839 sunny oper eighties for Saturday, mid eighties, partly the mostly 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:18.760 sunny by Sunday right now seventy four degrees in Central 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:25.199 Park markets. Headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:28.280 day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business at and 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:38.320 at Bloomberg Quicktape. He's a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.440 Karen Moscow. US stock index futures are on the rise 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:45.400 as China's massive stimulus steady, some nerves in the anxious 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.560 wait for a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.839 Treasury yields and the dollar gauge are dipping. We checked 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.280 the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:58.439 Bloomberg SNP futures of nineteen points now futures of eighty three, 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.800 NAS day futures of seventy four. The decks in Germany's 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.280 up a tenth of uppercent ten year treasury of four 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:07.080 thirty seconds he three eight percent. They yield on the 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:10.200 two year three point three six per cent. Nimex crude 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.040 oil is up a tenth of upper cent or ten 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.400 cents at ninety four dollars ninety nine cents of barrel 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.320 COLLBX schooled up eight ten percent or fourteen dollars seventy 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.599 cents is seventeen seventy six ten announced the euro is 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:24.480 at poe against the dollar. British found one to eight 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.120 and the end one thirty six point five four And 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.160 look at a big coin. It's little change at six 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.880 ninety dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.000 Barr with more on what's going on around the world. 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.200 Michael Karen, thank you very much. Reaction to President Biden's 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:43.959 announcement of ten thousand dollars in student loan forgiveness, some 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:48.640 expected more debt cancelation. Others called it another handout, adding 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.280 to the country's deficit woes. Senator Mitch McConnell called it 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.360 a slap in the face to every family who sacrificed, 0:13:55.840 --> 0:14:00.400 say for college, every graduate who paid their debt. Russian 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.080 missile strike in Ukraine killed at least twenty two people 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:05.920 on the day that the nation was celebrating thirty one 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.600 years of independence from the Old Sylvia Union. In baseball, 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:13.360 the Red Sox and Orioles lost the Nationals one the 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.240 A's beat the Marlins in ten innings three to the 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.560 Giants Lost. Global News twenty four hours a day on 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:23.000 air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.880 seven hundred journalists and analyist more than a hundred twenty countries. 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.240 Michael Laren, this is Bloomberg Nathan Alright, Michael, thank you 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:31.920 to six nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:36.400 Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak as we get 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.880 set for the kickoff of the Jackson Whole Economic Symposium 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:43.720 and mere hours now. We're joined by Ira Jersey, chief 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:48.120 US rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Ira, good morning. We've 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:51.680 seen a lot of movement in the rates market in 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.760 the lead up to this con fab. What do you 0:14:54.920 --> 0:15:00.200 see treasury traders pricing in ahead of Pal's comments tomorrow? Yeah, 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.920 so still pricing in additional interest rate hikes and and 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:06.920 one hike at least in three which is a bit 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.720 different than what we saw after the last Federal Reserve 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:15.720 meeting when J. Powell's UM, I guess his his press 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.360 conference was taken a somewhat dovish um. So it'll be 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:21.480 interesting to see what he says in terms of, you know, 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.720 how what their propensity to really fight inflation is, how 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:28.160 worried they are about some areas of the economy starting 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:31.320 at the slow and UM, and just how serious they 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:34.400 are in terms of um UH, in terms of getting 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:38.520 inflation and inflation expectations back down because um, you know, 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:40.520 one of the risks that they have at this point 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.280 is that UM inflation and wages continue to grow pretty 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:48.000 significantly and you get a wage price spiral similar to 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:51.120 what you had in the nineteen seventies. Are you expecting 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.840 any clarity from the Chairman tomorrow? Well, I am, and 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.920 I suspect that he will end up saying that, UM, 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:01.840 that the FED is very serious about fighting inflation, that 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:05.360 we're going to keep on hiking into three because I 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.600 think with the market kind of missed in UH in 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:12.640 their their pricing of expectations for the FED over the 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:16.280 next couple of years. UM since the last FED meeting 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.160 is that when when j said they're going to slow 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:22.040 the pace of purchases, yes, they're going to not be 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.200 hiking at seventy five basis points every meeting. We you know, 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.320 we had never expected them to continue to do that. 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:30.480 But what the market. I think is getting is missing 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.760 is that they may go much further for longer. So 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.520 in other words, they might only hike at base when 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:39.320 increments come this fall, but they might go into the 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.360 middle of next year and and and hike interest rates 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.320 well above four percent, which is not being priced in 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:47.160 the market right now. And I think that j. Powell 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.480 is going to hint that that's the path that the 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.640 Fed ultimately is going to take. You put out a 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.720 note on Bloomberg Intelligence this week that the treasury curve 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.680 inversion could resume after the Jackson Whole address. It sounds 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.800 like it's kind of what you're alluding to in terms 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:04.720 of the chairman getting more clarity. But you know, I'm 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.440 I'm just a simple guy. We've been in treasury curve 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:12.000 and version for quite some time, haven't we. Well, it's 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.360 it's been a couple of months, which isn't that long 0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:16.560 in the grand scheme of things. And I think the 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.879 magnitude of inversion matters at some level. Two and and 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:24.840 will highlight um that how aggressive ultimately the Federal Reserve 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:26.920 is going to be, so shorter term interest rates like 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.560 two year notes, for example, might wind up moving up 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:33.879 toward towards three point eight three point nine percent, so 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:37.360 another you know, thirty forty basis points higher in terms 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:40.040 of yield. And I think longer term yields like the 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.280 tenure yield might only move back up towards the call 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:46.440 it three and a quarter percent um and UM, and 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.920 on the expectation that at some point in the Federal 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:52.840 Reserve is gonna cut interest rates quite a lot and 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:55.080 wind up going back towards two and a half percent 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:57.480 or so in terms of the Fed Fund rate after 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.280 getting up to four and a half. So so the 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.119 the curve is going to have to um. You know, 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.880 I think price pretty aggressively a you know, a much 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:09.800 deeper inversion of the curve. And and that's that that 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.040 wouldn't be a big surprise that that would be unusual 0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:16.120 for the last twenty years. But it's not that unusual 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.840 in the whole history of the of the market, especially 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.120 when inflation dynamics are much different than they have been 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.399 um over the recent paths. You go back to the 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:27.719 nineteen eighties and in the early nineties, and in versions 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.000 of of fifty sixty basis points are not that unusual. 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:33.600 So our last minute here, Ira, you don't see a 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:35.879 whole lot of wiggle room then for the Fed, given 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:39.000 the weakness in some of the economic data we've seen 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.880 of light. Well, so what's what's interesting is we've seen 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.359 some sector some weakness. You know, housing market is is 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.320 certainly a big one. But when you when when you 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:52.439 look at the wage data and you think about how 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.760 wage price vils tend to develop, um, there still is 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:59.600 a significant amount of inflation at the core level that 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.960 seems to be accelerating. So you still have faster inflation 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:05.400 at the core level. That means that, uh, it can 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.240 be inflation in general can be much stickier, you know, 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:10.080 not at eight percent, but you can wind up being 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.040 stickier at three and a half or four percent, which 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.440 is still way above where the Federal Reserve wants inflation 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:17.160 to be, which is one of the reasons I think 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:19.639 ultimately they'll have to hike a little bit further than 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.800 what the markets currently priced. Interesting to see whether we're 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.119 going to get that kind of clarity from Sherman Powell 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:29.240 tomorrow right around ten am Wall Street time when he 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.680 makes that speech. Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist 0:19:32.760 --> 0:19:35.960 at Bloomberg Intelligence, thanks for being with us this morning. 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:39.040 As we get ready for the kickoff of the Jackson 0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:42.400 Whole Economic Symposium this morning. We're gonna have full coverage 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:47.040 beginning with Bloomberg surveillance in Jackson Hole. That starts just 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:48.960 about a half hour from now. Is seven am. Wall 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:52.400 Street time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television, 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:55.240 SMP Future is up twenty one point, staff futures up 0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:58.240 nine danced futures up eighty five points ten. Your treasury 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.639 yield right now three points zero eight per cent. This 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:09.040 is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather sunny, going to 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.600 near ninety today. We'll have a late day shower, thunderstorm tomorrow. 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:16.000 Otherwise sunshine opper eighties, mostly Sunday, oper eighties, Saturday a 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.600 mid eighties, and sunshine on Sunday. Right now seventy two degrees. 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:26.480 Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:31.280 Bloomberg E Loving Freedom to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:34.800 Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg Home 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.439 sixty to the country. Sirius xm H had a one 0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:40.639 nineteen and around the globe. The Bloomberg business app in 0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:50.520 Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak six thirty 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:53.080 on Wall Street. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:56.040 Karen Moscow. He are just about three hours away from 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.080 the open of US trading. It's time for the five 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:00.480 things that you need to notice start your a brought 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:05.080 to you by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers Global Analysts helps 0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:08.480 you find new global investment opportunities to diversify your portfolio 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.880 and discover undervalued companies they may have greater growth potential. 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:15.160 Try ibk our Global Analysts today at ibk R dot 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.920 com slash g a up. First, the event Wall Street's 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:22.480 been waiting for, The Federal Reserves Annual Jackson Hole Economic 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:26.720 Symposium kicks off today. Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz is covering it 0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:30.000 for us in Jackson Hole. Join us at a monumental 0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:33.479 Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:35.920 This is going to be one of the most consequential 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:38.760 meetings of Fed officials as they digest some of the 0:21:38.920 --> 0:21:43.600 changes facing the economy, facing inflation, facing monetary policy as 0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:45.640 we know it. Some of the big questions J Powe 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:49.200 will be addressing include where is the terminal rate? Where 0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:52.800 should rates end up in an economy beset by inflation? 0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:56.080 And what should we expect an employment market that still 0:21:56.280 --> 0:21:59.560 is strong it is showing signs of weakening and Lisa 0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:02.080 A Brama, It's Bloomberg day Break Current. Lisa, thanks, so 0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:04.359 please stick with Bloomberg for complete live coverage of the 0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.280 Jackson Holes and Polsium. Lisa, along with Tom Keen and 0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:10.600