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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast pot.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 1: fifty and.

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Speaker 2: The kicks block the college football world stundar.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and booble the latter of

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Speaker 1: turn a counter on the inside.

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Speaker 3: Don't you believe I'm not.

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Speaker 1: Gonna table up the field to night. It's not the

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Speaker 1: size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the doll. What's

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Speaker 2: up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the Week ten college football betting preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm stuck in joining me as always my fellow BBOC

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Speaker 2: co host Colin Wilson. A lot to get to today,

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Speaker 2: and when we finish up, one of our biggest fans, Connor,

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Speaker 2: has submitted another song, so a tribute this week to

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Speaker 2: BYU will play us out. But a lot to get

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Speaker 2: to before we get to that. Colin, how goes it?

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Speaker 1: Good to see your face today. It's been a fun week,

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Speaker 1: a lot of lines to get to, a lot of movement,

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Speaker 1: and one thing I'll mention here off the top, Dodgers

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Speaker 1: win the World Series. Stuck, so it kind of falls

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Speaker 1: in line with your handicap of twenty twenty four, which

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Speaker 1: is Year of the chalk. You're the chalk who you

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Speaker 1: call him for National Champion? Who's the biggest chalker?

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Speaker 2: Georgia, Yeah, would probably be Georgia. But I think twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five might be the Year of the dog. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: year of the chalk, man. I mean, Mahomes winning was

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Speaker 2: the biggest surprise. Mahomes winning a Super Bowl. Like, but

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Speaker 2: let's dive right into the slate.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Well, let's check

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Speaker 1: out the marquee matchups. Will all end up betting for

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Speaker 1: Week ten.

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Speaker 2: People are dumping on the slate here to tell you

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be a good one. I could feel it

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Speaker 2: in my bones. It's gonna be. There's gonna be some chaos.

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Speaker 2: It's what we last week. There wasn't. Last week was

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Speaker 2: the dud week, I think, and we were kind of

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Speaker 2: probably due for that after so much chaos. I think

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Speaker 2: every higher ranked team won. Like the biggest upset of

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Speaker 2: a ranked team was undefeated BYU winning against UCF. There's

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Speaker 2: no real separation at the top. There's no elague teams,

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be chaotic weekends. But the marquee game of

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Speaker 2: the weekend is Ohio State Penn State.

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Speaker 1: Some games require background. This game does not. This game

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Speaker 1: isn't cute. This is the Big ten on its biggest stage.

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Speaker 2: Penn State fans maybe upset that this game is not

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Speaker 2: at maybe that favors Ohio State a bit. This will

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Speaker 2: kick off as the big noon or I should say,

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Speaker 2: the big twelve to fifteen Eastern game on Fox. Ohio

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Speaker 2: State three and a half point favorite here totals ticked

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Speaker 2: down to forty five and a half. A lot of

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Speaker 2: uncertainty in this game, is true, al'er going to go?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I would lean towards yes, but we

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Speaker 2: won't know until game time. Not going to find out

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Speaker 2: from Franklin. Who's look small game? James, he normally doesn't

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Speaker 2: win these games. He's been very bad in these marquee games.

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Speaker 2: But Ryan Day he's and James francles one to nine

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Speaker 2: against Ollo Sate. But Ryan Day in these top five

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Speaker 2: matchups has also not been good. Something has to give here, Ah,

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Speaker 2: you know what? Just on the surface, what I find

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Speaker 2: interesting is that this number is similar to like hence

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Speaker 2: we would with Ohio State was laying on the road

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Speaker 2: to Oregon. But we've seen Ohio State. We didn't know

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Speaker 2: a lot about them. They lost that game to Oregon.

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Speaker 2: I thought that line was too high and they arguably

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Speaker 2: should have lost to Nebraska. There's more uncertainty than just

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Speaker 2: a quarterback situation with Penn State and State. It's right

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Speaker 2: tackle questionable Sutton one of their better edge rushers questionable.

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Speaker 2: On the Ohio State side, it's their offensive line. They've

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Speaker 2: suffered another injury at left tackle. They lost their starting

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Speaker 2: left tackle for the season after their backup with down.

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Speaker 2: They had kicked their left guard out. There was already

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Speaker 2: questions on the right side. That is my biggest concern

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Speaker 2: for Ohio State here is does their offensive line hold

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Speaker 2: up or does it completely just dead? In this offense,

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Speaker 2: they couldn't get the run game going because of the

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Speaker 2: offensive line issues against Nebraska last week. I assume that

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Speaker 2: would be difficult again against Penn State. What do you

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Speaker 2: see here in this Big Ten matchup that I think

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Speaker 2: that this game means more to Ohio State. How the

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Speaker 2: state loses this game, there's a risk that don't make

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Speaker 2: the cultural pouf because they won't make the Big Ten Championship.

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Speaker 2: They won't make the Big Ten Championship. It's interesting would

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Speaker 2: a ten and two state get in. They don't have

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Speaker 2: they want any marqu he wins, but Indiana, assuming Indiana

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Speaker 2: keeps winning, would end up being one. And then you

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Speaker 2: would take a ten and two Ohio State over an

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Speaker 2: eleven to one Indiana because they want head to head

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Speaker 2: they have to strength to schedule advantage. That's an interesting discussion.

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Speaker 2: But things are gonna get really interesting if Ohio State

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Speaker 2: loses this game. You know, in these matchups all year,

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Speaker 2: we've just seen the home team with the points that

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Speaker 2: just take the points. That's the way that I would lean.

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Speaker 2: But there's a ton of uncertainty in this game. What

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Speaker 2: do you see?

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Speaker 1: I think you hit one of the two biggest handicaps

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Speaker 1: in this game, and that is the Ohio State offensive line.

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Speaker 1: Left guard Donovan Jackson is gonna get kicked out slide

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Speaker 1: out to left tackle after Josh Simmons lost for the year.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned that Zenan Mkowski was the backup. Absolutely even

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Speaker 1: if he would healthy. Absolutely horrific performance last week. Twenty

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Speaker 1: drop back, twenty pass blocking assignments, gave up two sacks,

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Speaker 1: four pressures. I actually have two data sources to show

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Speaker 1: me pressures. One of them was much worse than that.

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Speaker 2: He was bad, and you know if he played it

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Speaker 2: would be bad. But now without him, you're like impacting

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Speaker 2: multiple positions.

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Speaker 1: This is a true trickle down effect to the rest

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Speaker 1: of the offense, especially zone reed, which is what the

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Speaker 1: Buckeyes like to run a lot with Will Howard. And

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Speaker 1: I will say that Donovan Jackson moving out from left

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Speaker 1: guard to left tackle, he has four snaps of experience

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Speaker 1: in his college career twenty forty five snaps. He's had

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Speaker 1: four at left tackle. So and we've already had problems

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Speaker 1: with the Buckey's offensive line. I mean they are outside

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Speaker 1: the top fifty in line yards and pass blocking. Nebraska

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Speaker 1: pushed them around. Everybody's pushing them around. And I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to sit here and say that we know that

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Speaker 1: Penn State is the same type of defensive line they've

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Speaker 1: had in the past few years. I don't think they have.

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Speaker 1: And quin Shawn Judkins trying to get that running game

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Speaker 1: going with Will Howard, it's going to be a problem

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Speaker 1: with this offensive line. So I think that's one big

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Speaker 1: part of the handicap. The other one stuck is This

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Speaker 1: is the Andy cotal Nikki money game right here. This

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Speaker 1: is why you went out and got him. This is

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Speaker 1: why you went out and spent a whole bunch of

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Speaker 1: money last week. I'm not sure if Bo Probula was

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Speaker 1: planned on coming into this game against Ohio State and

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Speaker 1: he just had to come in last week. But what

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Speaker 1: a test run from an RPO perspective Andy cotel Nikki

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Speaker 1: has had.

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Speaker 2: He might be a better fit for the codal Nikki offense,

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Speaker 2: but he's obviously not his talented throwing zaa. But is

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Speaker 2: he going to play? And also Ohio State will be

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Speaker 2: at least prepared for him, which Wisconsin wasn't.

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Speaker 1: Once I did my research on the Penn State offense,

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Speaker 1: it's not really the zone read that's going to attack

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Speaker 1: this Ohio State defensive front. It's power football. So I

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Speaker 1: think Singleton and Allen are you just going to see

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Speaker 1: them set up in a pistol formation, one back set,

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Speaker 1: and I think you're going to see Probula potentially be

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Speaker 1: an RPO decoy. But there this allows Andy Kotolniki to

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Speaker 1: unlock one hundred percent of his playbook, something he could

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Speaker 1: not do with Drew Drewaler may play We'll see how

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Speaker 1: the knee is going. But this feels like Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M. I now have two options. I have one

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Speaker 1: that can get into your secondary and I have one

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Speaker 1: that can run the RPO. It just makes life tougher

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Speaker 1: for the Ohio State defense. You combine that with the

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Speaker 1: offensive line issues of Ohio State. I took Penn State

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Speaker 1: of four, I would take Penn State at plus three.

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Speaker 1: I would take them all the way down to two

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Speaker 1: in this game. And for somebody that laide Ohio State

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Speaker 1: not to make the playoff plus four fifty and thought

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Speaker 1: I was going to get laughed out of the building

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Speaker 1: this summer, this is a big one. This is a

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Speaker 1: real big one. Ohio State's playoff chances are on the

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Speaker 1: line here.

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Speaker 2: Penn State receivers their lack of explosiveness parties dipip because

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Speaker 2: I do think Pennce Ohio State does have at least

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Speaker 2: a couple guys that they can throw at Warren. I

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Speaker 2: don't know what the court like. If Alor goes and

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Speaker 2: he's not healthy, that scares me. Yep. For now, I'm

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Speaker 2: staying well, I would lean under as well, but there's

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Speaker 2: there's going to be a lot of aggressive coverage in

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Speaker 2: this game, so you could have some more explosiveness, although

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Speaker 2: like the Ohio State offensive line that probably limits that.

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Speaker 2: And the Penn State receivers I think Ohio State can

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Speaker 2: match up with so I certainly would lean Penn State lean.

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Speaker 2: The under should be a good one to kick off

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Speaker 2: Saturday slate. Moving on Oregon at Michigan. Michigan stinks people,

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Speaker 2: But guess what I played, Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Going on the board. Put this on the get the

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Speaker 1: board out, let's go.

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Speaker 2: It's on the board, all right, agreed? Tap fourteen and

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Speaker 2: nine so far this year easily could be sixteen and

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry seventeen six. Lost three games by the hook

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Speaker 2: because of two point conversions. Yeah, I like Michigan here.

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Speaker 2: Anything over two touchdowns for starters. Well, Michigan's looking to

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Speaker 2: beat a number one ranked team for the first time

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Speaker 2: since they beat Miami nineteen eighty four bust eight straight since.

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Speaker 2: So from a pure market perspective, first, Michigan close six

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Speaker 2: point favorite at Illinois. It's assuming they're over a touchdown

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Speaker 2: better and they lost that game, but they were pretty

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Speaker 2: unlucky all things considered. Oregon was a twenty one point

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Speaker 2: favorite at home against Illinois, so you know, take around

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Speaker 2: three and a half points for home field in Oregon

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Speaker 2: and Michigan seven point difference. We're basically saying that Michigan

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Speaker 2: and Illinois are equals. The market just told us that

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Speaker 2: Michigan's about a touchdown better five Michigan I think about

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Speaker 2: four four and a half points better than Illinois, who

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Speaker 2: I think is terrible right to low total here catching

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Speaker 2: over two touchdowns at home, This is a better matchup

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Speaker 2: for Michigan than Illinois. One of the reasons I bet

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Speaker 2: Oregon last week against Illinois. Illinois can't run the ball,

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Speaker 2: Michigan can. Oregon's biggest weakness by far is their run defense.

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Speaker 2: They're outside the top one hundred in a couple of

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Speaker 2: advanced metrics. Part of that is genty, but we saw

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Speaker 2: Perdue moved the ball on the ground at will at

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Speaker 2: times against Oregon. They just couldn't finish tries and they

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Speaker 2: have a terrible defense. Michigan actually has a good defense.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Will Johnson decides to play as well. The Illinois

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Speaker 2: defensive line also terrible. Michigan has a really good defensive

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Speaker 2: line that I think can play up here. Oregon's offense

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Speaker 2: still really lacks explosiveness, The other thing, Oregon doesn't care

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Speaker 2: about these games in the second half. So even if

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Speaker 2: they blow this open and they're up twenty one, but

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Speaker 2: I think Michigan can hold them the twenty eighth or fewer,

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Speaker 2: and I think that they can have success in the

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Speaker 2: ground short in this game. But Oregon just gets a

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Speaker 2: lead and then just sits on it, but brings in

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Speaker 2: their backups that stay healthy. They have no incentive so

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Speaker 2: get margin. They're already in the collegewall playoff. I think

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Speaker 2: this is a bit too many points given the matchup

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Speaker 2: and the situation. So I took the Wolverines catching over

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns at home.

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Speaker 1: You agree, I completely agree. Look, Oregon's defense is tremendous

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Speaker 1: and stopping the past top ten and every metric a

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Speaker 1: havoc rank of seventh because of a pass rush that

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Speaker 1: can get all up in your business. What you're gonna

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Speaker 1: look at is this Michigan offense that has been redefined

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Speaker 1: now with Tuttle retiring Orgies back to inside zone with

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Speaker 1: Kalo Mullings, and you're gonna look at Davis Warren and

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Speaker 1: his four point four average depth of target targeted Colston

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Speaker 1: level and eight times last week. So that's the offense.

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Speaker 1: That's the entire offense, and Oregon's going to have to

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Speaker 1: try to stop these run concepts of outside zone. You know,

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Speaker 1: Michigan has been explosive with inside zone, and that is

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Speaker 1: a way that Oregon can be gash. I think the

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Speaker 1: other side of the ball stuck is what made my

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Speaker 1: decision on that I want to back Michigan. Dylan Gabriel

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Speaker 1: right now is riding this just wave of Heisman money.

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Speaker 1: His numbers look so good in the last two weeks

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Speaker 1: against Perdue in Illinois, I throw them out. Dylan Gabriel

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Speaker 1: has seen sixty five pressures this season, only eight of

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Speaker 1: them have come in the last two weeks. That offensive

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Speaker 1: line has kept Dylan Gabriel clean. He could eat off

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Speaker 1: the turf and no one could touch him.

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Speaker 2: Gabriel's unless you could run all day on Purdue in Illinois,

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Speaker 2: and that just sets everything else up and opens everything

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Speaker 2: else up, and neither of those teams get pressure.

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Speaker 1: As you said, and I've said this about Gabriel, like

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Speaker 1: when all the Heisman bets were flying in the summer.

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Speaker 1: It's a real problem with pressure that's still going on

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Speaker 1: this year. Two big time throws to turnover worthy plays.

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Speaker 1: Michigan is ranked as the top pass rush unit and

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Speaker 1: all of PFF. It is a leaky defense though you

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Speaker 1: mentioned with Johnson, like the Wolverinees defense on the back end,

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Speaker 1: they're eightieth and coverage grading. So you know, if Wink

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Speaker 1: Martindelle is gonna send Blitz forty percent of the time,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see some Morgan explosives through the pass game.

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Speaker 1: But if hands are in the face of Dylan Gabriel,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be some problems here, could even turn

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Speaker 1: into a turnover. The biggest problem is Michigan's defense is

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Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty fifth and allowing explosives during passing down.

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Speaker 1: So Gabriel if he can get his A dot pushed

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Speaker 1: up a little bit and create explosive plays, which Oregon

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Speaker 1: really is not done this year through the pass one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fifth and pass EPA, then you know

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see Oregon potentially cover. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: they will because if you look at Michigan's defensive line,

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Speaker 1: Dereck Moore, Mason Graham, and Josiah Stewart, each one of

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Speaker 1: them have twenty four pressures this season. I love the

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Speaker 1: zone read. I love the power concepts on the Michigan

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Speaker 1: offensive side of the ball. I think Colston Lovelin becomes

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Speaker 1: a big factor whether he's catching the ball behind the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. This is going to be enough to

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Speaker 1: keep this number close of Oregon, especially because they cannot

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Speaker 1: defend the run like they do the past.

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Speaker 2: Let's move out to Texas A and M at South Kenda.

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Speaker 2: Texas AM, the only remaining undefeated team in the SEC,

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Speaker 2: will travel to South Gina. I played South Gundar plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half. I need three to play it now.

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Speaker 2: For what it's worth. South Gona twelve five and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread at home against top ten opponents since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and five, covering by about a touchdown per game.

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Speaker 2: That includes seven outright victories. As either an underdog or

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Speaker 2: small favorite, also has a named Who's going to start?

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Speaker 2: I would assume it's Marcel Reid smartly leading that ye

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Speaker 2: not naming the starter, and then South Carolina has to

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Speaker 2: prepare for both Situationally, Texas A and M, the huge

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Speaker 2: win against LSU in which they caught the Tigers by surprise,

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Speaker 2: weren't prepared for Marcel Reid. Southkina off of a bye

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Speaker 2: I think that's important because that means Lenora's sellers will

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Speaker 2: be healthy. They you know, they were dealing with some

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Speaker 2: bumps and bruises, and Sellers just didn't have the same

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Speaker 2: running ability pre buy. They will be healthier. South kinda

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Speaker 2: gives up a ton of tackles for lost Texas A

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Speaker 2: and m eats in that department. It's not gonna be

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Speaker 2: easy for the South Ken offense, but Texanan has been

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Speaker 2: given up a lot of explosives on the ground. Through

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Speaker 2: the air. I think South Khina can hit enough. I

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Speaker 2: think they're defensive line, assuming it's gonna be read. If

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Speaker 2: it's Wegman can't throw on South Carolin. Their pressure is

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Speaker 2: too good, their secondary is too good, so I don't

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Speaker 2: trust Wegman to throw on them if it's read. I

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Speaker 2: do worry a bit about Moss in the power run

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Speaker 2: game for Texas A and m It's a very aggressive

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Speaker 2: South Carolina defense, and you can run on them a bit.

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Speaker 2: But South Carolina is good against running quarterbacks very much.

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Speaker 2: You can load the box here and make Reid beat you,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think he can through the air. These

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Speaker 2: two teams change a couple of plays with South Carolina

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Speaker 2: change a couple penalties. South Kunda should have beat LSU

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Speaker 2: at home at seventeen point. They got bogus call out

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Speaker 2: their bogus call. They could have beat Alabama. I arguably

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Speaker 2: should have, so they easily could be four and one,

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Speaker 2: and they play like this game would be huge and

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Speaker 2: they'd be in contention in the SEC. They'd have a

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Speaker 2: pair of wins of Alabama and LSU. Instead they lost

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Speaker 2: by two and three. And then Texas A and M.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're ranked inside the top ten, and if

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Speaker 2: you look at it, they've benefited from the element of

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Speaker 2: surprise at quarterback, which they won't have here. I can't

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Speaker 2: get to a field goal or more here, especially when

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Speaker 2: you consider the spot and if you just look from

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Speaker 2: a pure net yards per play perspective, remove garbage time,

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Speaker 2: and only against FBS opponents, tex Anum's fifty third plus

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Speaker 2: point three net yards per play. South Carolina is fifty

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Speaker 2: eight plus point twenty four. And by the way, South

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Speaker 2: Carolina's by the tougher schedule but a top three one

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Speaker 2: of the three hardest schedules in the country to date.

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Speaker 2: And the other point I want to bring up here,

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M has not played a dominant defense

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Speaker 2: since Notre Dame, and in that game they only had

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty yards at home, you know who?

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Speaker 2: At South Carolina they played three in their past three games.

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Speaker 2: When I consider a dominant defense, it's a top A defense.

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Speaker 2: I've rated in the top twenty. I like South Carolina

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Speaker 2: at home at night, great spot.

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Speaker 1: We got a tough bunch. Yeah, right before you and

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Speaker 1: I hit the recording button, the two and a half's

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Speaker 1: evaporated threes are back on the board. And now I'm

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Speaker 1: interested because I missed that four on Sunday but shopped

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Speaker 1: for definitely for the best number. You agree on three,

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Speaker 1: I agree on three. Yeah, let's put it on the board.

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Speaker 1: I'll take three. I didn't want that two and a half.

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Speaker 1: But you know, because the South Carolina, I mean, the

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Speaker 1: offense is pretty one dimensional. It is try to run

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Speaker 1: the RPO of the North Sellers. If not, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to try and create explosive passes. That to me is

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Speaker 1: the avenue to South Carolina. Points here is when the

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Speaker 1: Norris Sellers and that rocket Standers RPO offense finally gets

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Speaker 1: wrangled in by the Texas A and M defensive line,

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Speaker 1: There's going to be some sort of play action or

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Speaker 1: some sort of guy standing fifty yards down the field

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Speaker 1: for Sellers to throw it down to twentieth and epa

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Speaker 1: passing that's going to show up here. His passing attempts

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Speaker 1: to Misaioh Bennett coming out of the slot on during

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Speaker 1: play action have been the bulk of the South Carolina points.

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Speaker 1: I think the other side of the ball is really

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Speaker 1: where you start with your handicap South Carolina's defense. Look

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Speaker 1: at these mobile quarterbacks they've gone up against. South Carolina

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Speaker 1: essentially ended Michael hawkins junior season for OU. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he's playing quarterback for the rest of the season.

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Speaker 1: Jaln Milroe had eighteen recorded rushing attempts in thirty six yards.

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Speaker 1: South Carolina recorded nine tackles for loss on that Alabama offense.

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Speaker 1: And then finally Jackson Dart his outside zone that he's

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Speaker 1: been so successful with, he only had eight carries for

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Speaker 1: forty four yards. So South Carolina is doing a number

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Speaker 1: and you have to ask he's going to be Connor Wigman.

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Speaker 1: Can he survive a pressured pocket. South Carolina is the

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Speaker 1: second best pass rush in the nation and the second

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Speaker 1: best coverage unit in the nation. I'm not sure Connor

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Speaker 1: Wigman is the fit here. What about Marcel Reid? I

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Speaker 1: just said, what do they do against rpo or quarterbacks?

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Speaker 1: More importantly, look what you said stuck about Reed's history

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Speaker 1: when defenses have a chance to plan. I think everybody

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Speaker 1: that was holding the LSU ticket last week didn't have

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Speaker 1: a chance to plan when Marcel Reid was going to

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Speaker 1: come in and save the game. So turnovers, sellers, explosives.

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Speaker 1: That's the key to this game for South Carolina. I

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Speaker 1: think it's also a key to an over. But I

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Speaker 1: think the scripted portion of this game stuck. Whether it's

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Speaker 1: Wigman or Marcel Reid and whatever is going to have

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Speaker 1: Leonora Sellers and Rocket Sanders. I don't think any team's

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Speaker 1: going to have success for quite a while here until

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Speaker 1: we make adjustments. So I like under twenty one and

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Speaker 1: a half in the first half. I am with you

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Speaker 1: on the three. There's a couple of three and a

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Speaker 1: halves out there, so I will wait to put it

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Speaker 1: in the app until we get three and a half

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Speaker 1: more widely available out there. I see two national books

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Speaker 1: that have it, so I'll wait around a little bit

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Speaker 1: to get the game cock number in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind anything under here too. I think

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Speaker 2: it'll be low scoring game, should be a good one, hopefully.

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Speaker 2: I'm hoping that text A and M for my Collegewell

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Speaker 2: puff features wins by one, twenty one to twenty. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's move on to the rundown. Let's say about eight

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Speaker 2: or nine games here. All right, let's start Minnesota out Illinois.

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Speaker 2: I love Minnesota. Here. Look this Illinois team, I've been

396
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Speaker 2: screaming it from everywhere is a complete fraud. I mean,

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Speaker 2: let's just look at they're three zero one possession games.

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Speaker 2: They should have been They should have lost by forty

399
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Speaker 2: to Penn State. They have two overtime wins on the season.

400
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Speaker 2: They're eighty fifth and non garbage time net yards per

401
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Speaker 2: play margin negative point five net yards per play, Minnesota

402
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Speaker 2: thirty second, and both teams have had a similar strength

403
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Speaker 2: of schedule. Illinois the second luckiest team when you look

404
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Speaker 2: at second order wins on the season. This is like

405
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Speaker 2: a three to four win team so far this season.

406
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Speaker 2: They've just been extremely lucky, especially when it comes to

407
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Speaker 2: turnovers and they're trending down. Luke Goldmeyer, we've been saying

408
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Speaker 2: it like this guy is not all of a sudden

409
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 2: just doesn't commit turnovers. His turnover his turnover worthy play

410
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Speaker 2: rate was right around the same, and he just was

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Speaker 2: getting lucky, and we saw that last week.

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Speaker 1: Even after last week's.

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Speaker 2: Two interception performance, he has fifteen touchdowns to three interceptions

414
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Speaker 2: on the season. Ten but he has ten big time

415
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Speaker 2: throws eleven turnover worth he plays. Last year he had

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Speaker 2: ten interceptions on nine turnover worth he plays. There's more coming.

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Speaker 2: He also just got beat up last week. The entire

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Speaker 2: Illinois team got beat up last week. The injuries in

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Speaker 2: the secondary, they all play. They were playing a wide

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Speaker 2: receiver in the secondary at one point, Bryant.

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Speaker 1: Bryant.

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Speaker 2: Bryant is huge concussion. I don't know if he's going

423
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: to go, but he was the He had the highest

424
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 2: pass rating of any receiver in the country when targeted

425
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Speaker 2: going into last week. That's been the entire Illinois team.

426
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Speaker 2: Row to Bryant, Row to Franklin. They can't run the ball.

427
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Speaker 2: They lost their leading rusher. Their offensive line is bad,

428
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: their d line is bad, they get no pressure, they

429
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 2: can't stop the run. There's not a lot to like

430
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Speaker 2: about this team. And now they're beat up coming home

431
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Speaker 2: or Bilamo. By the way, it's eight to fifteen and

432
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 2: one against the spread thirty four point eight percent during

433
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 2: his time in Illinois, including five and eleven thirty one

434
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 2: point three percent in conference play. All these things for

435
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: Illinois and now they're outside. Hope of winning the Big

436
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 2: Ten title has gone after that loss to Oregon, and

437
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 2: Minnesota is trending in the complete opposite direction. This team

438
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 2: is going way under the radar. They easily could be

439
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 2: seven and one if they make that field goal against

440
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 2: UNC and the refs don't job them against Michigan's could

441
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 2: be seven and one on the air. They've had one

442
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 2: really bad half against Iowa. On defense, they're playing really well.

443
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,239
Speaker 2: Corey Evans did a great job. You simplify things. The

444
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: coverage bus, the misassignments are gone. You have to stop

445
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 2: Franklin and Brian, and Brian might not play. You have

446
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 2: to just stop Illinois passing attacks. They can't run the ball,

447
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: and Minnesota's run def It's been a bit more vulnerable

448
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 2: than the Pasty. Their secondary has been elite, Their d

449
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 2: is playing well, and their offense is also trending in

450
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 2: the right direction. They're healthier now. They were dealing with

451
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: some injuries early in the season. Brosmer has a handle

452
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: on the offense attack with their short passes. I think

453
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 2: this is a really good matchup on both sides of

454
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 2: the ball. Brosma's only one of three quarterback minimum two

455
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,719
Speaker 2: hundred drop backs on the season with an adjusted completion

456
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: percentage of at least eighty percent. The other two shodwre

457
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 2: sanders Dal and Gabriel. It's not putting the ball in

458
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 2: harm's way. I like the Gophers to get it done

459
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: on the road.

460
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: You agree, one hundred percent? Agree? I last I heard

461
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: on Pat Bryant a couple hours ago. This is a Thursday.

462
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: It's not looking good for his concussion protocol. That's gonna

463
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: get me. He got destroyed. Yeah, and that's going to

464
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 1: cause double teams on Zakari Franklin. Minnesota has a really

465
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 1: high HAVOC ranking, but it's not because of the pass rush.

466
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 1: It's because of the secondary Minnesota ranks in the top

467
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 1: ten and contested catches in all of college football. So

468
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: anything Altmeyer is going to put up is going to

469
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 1: get swatted or taken back. And if Illinois even does

470
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: work themselves into scoring position, there's this monster advantages here

471
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: for the Minnesota defense and finishing drives in red zone numbers.

472
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 1: I think the other side of the ball. You mentioned Brosmer.

473
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: Six passing touchdowns the last two games, no turnover worthy

474
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 1: plays in three straight games. He is hot and when

475
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: I say hot, his average depth of target and winn

476
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 1: against Maryland last week. Ten point one didn't think that

477
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 1: was possible from Brosmer. There's a trio of defensive backs

478
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: for Illinois here. They might not play this game from

479
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: Terrence Brooks, Tory Cox, Caleb Patterson. A new element for

480
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 1: us to handicap.

481
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: Agreed, go go first, row the boat. You know what

482
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: Trailblazers do.

483
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: They playze trails for other people to be comingly.

484
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 2: Duke at Miami, Miami laying twenty and a half here

485
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: total fifty four and a half. Yeah, noon start at

486
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 2: Miami like maybe a sleepy spot or the Canes. I

487
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: don't know, maybe they just come out a bit flat,

488
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 2: surprising metric wise if you look at Miami, the secondary

489
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 2: was the big question coming into the year, but the

490
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: way to attack them so far this year has been

491
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,360
Speaker 2: able to run the ball. Duke can't run the ball,

492
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 2: and Malik Murphy doesn't run it like quarterbacks mobile quarterbacks

493
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 2: have given Miami a bit some issues. This game to

494
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 2: me comes down to I'm sure you'll talk about it.

495
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 2: Ken creates some havoc, Manny Diaz and his return to Miami.

496
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 2: Is that basically just what this comes down to. How

497
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: much havoc can do create and potentially force Ward into

498
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 2: some mistakes.

499
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: Yeah? Absolutely, I think you know, Duke. The defense is

500
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: what drives us. I want to play Duke. I just

501
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: can't get to the twenty one. I want the twenty one.

502
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 1: I will be on them, and if I can't get

503
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: the twenty one, I'll probably come in first half. Because

504
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: you mentioned Manny Diaz returning to Miami, I think his

505
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 1: scripted portion of this game offensively and defensively will probably

506
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 1: have a little bit more focus and a little bit

507
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: more of his attention considering who he is going up against.

508
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: The handicap is what can we do to cam Ward.

509
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: Duke is fourth and limiting pass explosives. They're very highly

510
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: ranked pass EPA, and the havoc numbers are not really

511
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: so much from a pass rush. It's really more in

512
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: the secondary. So while I don't think cam Ward is

513
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: going to get shoved out of this pocket, I think

514
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 1: he is going to make mistakes and coverage looks downfield,

515
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: where Duke has been really pretty good this year. They

516
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: are fifth nationally and contested catch rate. And then finally,

517
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: the Blue Devils are tenth defensive finishing drive. So even

518
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 1: if Miami gets into scoring position, it's gonna be tough

519
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: to get some points up on the board. Teams are

520
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: just not racking up quality drives against Duke. So I'm

521
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: looking for twenty one or better. If I don't get it,

522
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play the dias angle in the first half

523
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: on the Duke spread.

524
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt Auburn. I am the Pavia whisper. Got every Vandy

525
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: game right this year. We're fading them this week. Ponzi

526
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 2: scheme is back. It's a Ponzi scheme. It's gonna fall apart.

527
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 2: I like Auburn sevens out there, STI one each seven.

528
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 2: I make this closer to ten. I look mention Netyard's

529
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 2: per play. We have a pretty good sample size now.

530
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 2: Auburn's had the tougher schedule. Auburn top thirty nationally net

531
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 2: yards per play over a yard per play, Vanderbilt's eighty second,

532
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 2: just ahead of Rice. Like look Vanderbilt I've loved them

533
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: all year. Is underdog, but it's different when you're catching

534
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: big numbers, double digits. I don't think they stay within

535
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 2: a touchdown here. Hoobby is also banged up shoulder injury,

536
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: knee injury kind of limited his mobility late. You could

537
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: see that there's also some regression coming for this Vanderbilt

538
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 2: team without Poppy's mobility, like they're not I don't think

539
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 2: that they can stay in the top ten on third

540
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 2: downs like I think that there's some regression coming there.

541
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 2: They've also recovered seventy five percent of their fumbles. They

542
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 2: have a plus five turnover margin Auburn's at minus nine

543
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 2: auburned is how many Peyton thorn Key turnovers are? They

544
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: away from being seven and one? I mean, honestly, like

545
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: they should have beat Oklahoma without the pick six.

546
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: But you know what, that's good. That's a good thing.

547
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 2: Hey out played Arkansas good. They blew that two touchdown

548
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: lead against Missouri good. I mean, how close are they

549
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: to six and two or seven and one with the

550
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 2: so close and this number would be I think double digits.

551
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 2: I know Vanderbilt is wagon against them as a dog,

552
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: but it's different when it's seven or less. I know

553
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 2: Jerry Kill his own hu fhreeze, but they will be

554
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 2: ready for this game revenge spot for getting embarrassed on

555
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 2: their home field last week. They also got to see

556
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 2: this offense. It's unique offense with Kill's offense, with Pavia

557
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 2: with stours, so I think they'll be ready. The Vanderbilt

558
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 2: defense is extremely vulnerable outside of their safeties and slot,

559
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 2: their offensive line can still be pushed around. I think

560
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 2: this is a top twenty five Auburn defense. I think

561
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 2: the Tigers get them here. Huge game for their bow

562
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 2: eligibility chances, also for Vandy too, but I think the

563
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 2: number is too short.

564
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with you if we want to

565
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: put it on the board because the question at the

566
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 1: beginning of the week I believe I asked on our

567
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: Sunday recap Potter, are we automatically buying Vandy with the

568
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: Jerry Kill Timbeck special against who frees? It keeps happening

569
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: every year now, Diego. Pavia's health is a factor. You

570
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: can point directly to him playing a schedule of defenses

571
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: that are in the SEC and not Conference USA, So

572
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: of course Pavey is feeling it right now. But when

573
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: you go into the numbers. Auburn is twenty second defensive stuff, right,

574
00:28:56,120 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: They're eleventh in line yards, that ball control possession offense

575
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: that Vanderbilt likes to implement to get first downs and

576
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 1: true clock is just not going to work here with

577
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: the defensive numbers that Auburn has. Uh. And you know

578
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: they're twenty third strength of schedule. So it's not like

579
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: Auburn has not played some of the best teams in

580
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: the nation. They have advantages in controlling Vanderbilt and the clock.

581
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure who on this Vanderbilt defense is

582
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: stopping Jarquois Hunter from running.

583
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: Ooh, there is run for three Hunter last week.

584
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, who who is stopping them? I don't know. Put

585
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: me on the board. I have not touched Auburn since

586
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: that goddamn pick six with Oklahoma. I hope I'm not

587
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 1: icing it here for is but uh yeah, or Eagle.

588
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 2: Dumbs on the pools saters in the water way.

589
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: Florida, Georgia.

590
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, world's largest outdoor cocked up arty. All right, I'm

591
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: on the fence with Florida. I think I want to

592
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: play them. I saw that you played them, yep, So

593
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: I need to be convinced here Wilson's not gonna play,

594
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: which does worry me a bit, Like which Georgia shows up.

595
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: They've been so inconsistent this year, right, I think it'll

596
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 2: can Lagway hit his explosive Like there's if you look,

597
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: nine big time throws to zero turnover wheth he places

598
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 2: on twenty plus yard throws, He's twelve of nineteen on

599
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: those passes with a thirty three yard a dot, completing

600
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 2: sixty three percent of his deep passes, however, and the

601
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: inter media range is only completing forty percent of those passes.

602
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: Does Georgia just try to take away the explosives, I

603
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: would assume, and then make him beat you in the

604
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 2: intermediary range. But there's other positive news for Florida. Their

605
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 2: offensive line is trending up. San Diego State transfers playing better,

606
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: and they played some good defensive lines. The defense is

607
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: playing better as well. The question is who have they

608
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: played like ECF, Kentucky, you know, Tennessee. But those are

609
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 2: not cupcakes. I mean, there's offenses that are struggling, but

610
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 2: they're they're defenses trending up, and Curby just doesn't cover

611
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: these big numbers. There's more than a two touchdown favored.

612
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 2: He's forty two percent against the spread zero and three

613
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: this year, although to be fair, he's fourteen and eight

614
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 2: against the spread on the road on neutral fields and

615
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 2: just eleven and twenty six at home against the number,

616
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: and he is eleven and five against the spread when

617
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 2: he's between two and three touchdown favorite, including you know,

618
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: he's fourteen and a half point favorite last year against

619
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 2: Florida and did cover. So really it's the bigger numbers.

620
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: He's nine and twenty one against the spread as a

621
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 2: favorite above twenty four points. But nap, you're your boy,

622
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: very good as an underdog, twenty three and eleven against

623
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: the spread, ten and three is a double digit dog.

624
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 2: You know, he's gonna go for the back door if

625
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: it's there.

626
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: Scared money, don't make money, you know.

627
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: But I think this Florida team is really trending up

628
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 2: from what I've seen, and after digging into it, yep

629
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 2: can call and just this Georgia team's been so inconsistent earlier.

630
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 2: The way to beat this parta defense is to run

631
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: on them. It's not like George has been great running

632
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 2: the ball. Carson beck Is.

633
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: He was good for he was horrible He's just.

634
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: Good for a turnover too now every week, So I

635
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 2: think I like Florida over two touchdowns pushed me over

636
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 2: the edge.

637
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: Well, it sounds like you're already there, but I'll try

638
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: to help you out. So it's tough to see DJ

639
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: Lagway making any kind of progress with the passing offense

640
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: against Georgia because what's been instilled in our brain and

641
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: our eye test is Georgia out physically in Texas the

642
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: last time we saw them, and then Kirby Smart cutting

643
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: a promo, a WW type promo saying we came to eat.

644
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: These guys are so resilient. We talked about intent. What

645
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: was our intent when we walked on the fields. Arn

646
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: Tent was not to take pictures, not to do all

647
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: the superstar stuff. Our intent was to eat. Larn Tent

648
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: was to come eat and be hungry. I'm not interested

649
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: in all the bails and whistles. But my question is, Kirby,

650
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: why does your team not respond like this every single week?

651
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: And are they going to be able to respond to

652
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 1: it a second consecutive time from a physicality standpoint, because

653
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: you know Florida is going to show up and give

654
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: their best effort here so from an offensive standpoint for

655
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: the Gators, it's tough to see Lagway getting anything deep

656
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: on them. And freshman Jay Jaden Ball had five tds

657
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: last week one hundred and six rushing yards, so he

658
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: is there for Montreal Johnson junior, who might not play

659
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: in this game. He's listed as questionable. I think the

660
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: thing with Bobby and a freshman. He only forced two

661
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: miss tackles in twenty two rushing attempts, so I don't

662
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: think the elusiveness is there, but five tds is something

663
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: you want to look at and say, there's at least

664
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: a red zone option here if Florida is able to

665
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: get downfield. It's the other side of the ball where

666
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: the news really kind of came out this week about

667
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: what's going on with Florida. Apparently three weeks ago, a

668
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: group of players on the defense, starters and reserves went

669
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: to Austin Armstrong and our favorite head coach of the

670
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: Florida Gators, and asked to simplify concepts get communication going

671
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: between the defensive line and the secondary. They wanted all

672
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: of the bells and whistles inside the playbook to be

673
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: thrown out. Let him go back to a base and

674
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: see if they can cook. Well, the answer is they did.

675
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 1: They turned the Kentucky rushing game. Vandergriff had twelve of

676
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: thirty two passing a couple of I INT's what Tennessee

677
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: do with Nico one hundred and sixty nine yards of

678
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: passing and no oh passing touchdowns against Tennessee. They figured

679
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: something out. They figured out I mean a lot of

680
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 1: other defensive figured that out on Tennessee. But Florida figured

681
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: it out too. The Gators have been excellent and one

682
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen snaps the season against inside zone that

683
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: is the primary run concept used by Georgia here, and

684
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: the Gators have just eaten it up all year, a

685
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 1: lower than mid FBS success rate against that. Plus look

686
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: into the numbers, the Gators are third nationally and limiting

687
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: explosives in early downs, and that is where Georgia really

688
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: likes to take their shots, first and second down, in

689
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: good down and distant situations. Standard downs, they like to

690
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: take a shot, and the Gators are third in limiting

691
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 1: explosives that early. I think Beck's going to be in

692
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 1: passing downs frequently. I think he's gonna have pressure, pressure

693
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 1: in his face, and you're right. He failed to make

694
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: a big time throw against Florida in this spot against

695
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: this defense last year. And one factor of that is

696
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 1: the fact that Florida plays a pretty heavy amount of

697
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: Cover one. Carson Beck in his career against cover one

698
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: forty two percent success rate a negative EPA. Beck has

699
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,479
Speaker 1: just not been good against that coverage. Looking, I'm wondering

700
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,800
Speaker 1: if that start to get spread out. So I played

701
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: Florida today, I would play it down to fourteen, a

702
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: flat fourteen. I also played first half under twenty seven

703
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 1: and a half. They're both outside the top eighty and

704
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: first quarter scoring adjustments of what's created points later on.

705
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: So I do like a first half under, but I

706
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: like Florida to cover all the numbers down to fourteen.

707
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: All right, I'm in, I'm on the board. I need

708
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half though there's fifteen there. I just

709
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 2: got a fifteen and a half. All right, Indiana at

710
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: Michigan State the wagon that is signetti.

711
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 1: Nothing gets people excited like winning.

712
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 2: It's pretty simple. I win. Google me.

713
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 3: Now.

714
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 2: It may pissed you people off, but so what. This

715
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 2: is the entertainment business.

716
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: We had to wake some people up and create some excitement.

717
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: Whatever. You know about Indiana in the past.

718
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: You got to raise the takee. You've been the wagon

719
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: with Michigan State. So I've really been wanting to hear

720
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: this one from you because I'm the one that won't

721
00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 1: get off Indiana, right, even when they've getting all the money,

722
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: the tickets, and it's like, I don't know if I

723
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: can fade Signetti, So what are we doing it?

724
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean I wanted to play Michigan State if

725
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: if Work was out and I was getting seven or better. Right,

726
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: it looks like Work is going to play. The question

727
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:15,479
Speaker 2: is will the injury hamper his ability to throw hand

728
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: it off. That's the big unknown here.

729
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 1: Because that's where you attack Michigan State is through the air.

730
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 2: Through the air. Yeah, So if he's fully healthy, I

731
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: wouldn't want any part of Michigan State with to work

732
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 2: in there because he's been unbelievable. He can't really run

733
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 2: on Michigan State like you could run on Washington, which

734
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 2: is what they did last week, but you can't run

735
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 2: on Michigan State. Really, you got to attack him through

736
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 2: the air. I don't trust Jackson, and this is like

737
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 2: Indiana's first real road test. I wouldn't trust Jackson to

738
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 2: do that here, but just I don't know how healthy

739
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: work is going to be. The other really interesting thing

740
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: here is Michigan State. Indiana has been so good in

741
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: the first quarter. You've talked about this a lot, but

742
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,280
Speaker 2: so is Michigan State. Because Smith that script is so good.

743
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 2: Who wins that battle? So I don't know this is

744
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 2: I might put Sparti in a round robin just because

745
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: of the added uncertainty with Rourke, right, So if he's

746
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:19,959
Speaker 2: not healthy, it leads to like a couple turnovers. That's

747
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: like intriguing from an underdog moneyline perspective. But two, I'd

748
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: probably have to pass right now. Maybe if it gets

749
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 2: to ten, I'll look at mister.

750
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: You gotta wait for the Rourke announcement to come because

751
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: that affects so many things about what Indiana can do,

752
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: especially throwing, which is where you attack Michigan State. So

753
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 1: seeing that number get up to eight, I would suspect

754
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: the practice is going pretty well this week, but I

755
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: would still wait for the confirmation and if the number

756
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,720
Speaker 1: gets a little bit too high. I have been holding

757
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 1: back on Auburn bets to use as a money line

758
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: parlay with another seven point favorite and if Curs Rork

759
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 1: is playing, this would probably be the one that I

760
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: would pair it up with. Now, the thing that I

761
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 1: think Michigan State's in trouble is the Signetti havoc.

762
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 2: You know, you got to get him charged up.

763
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: Eighteenth in the country in Michigan State is outside the

764
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 1: top one hundred and havoc allowed. And we've talked about

765
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: Aid and Chiles some of the problems that he has.

766
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 1: He has just been terrorized by opposing pass rushes.

767
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 2: I think he has the most turnoup really plays in

768
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: the country.

769
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 1: And it's I mean eighty six pressures he's seen this season, right,

770
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: I mean, that's it's tough. You don't hold it against him.

771
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,240
Speaker 1: It's maybe a quarterback that we look to back pretty

772
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 1: hard next year once you get a better offensive line.

773
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,439
Speaker 1: But I mean, I'm not going to get in front

774
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: of this Indiana team, you know, unless Rorke is out.

775
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: You know, they also, even if work Is is not

776
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 1: in there, there's still a high level of rush explosives

777
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: from Michigan State that could give Indiana trouble. So that

778
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: is the avenue for Michigan State. But if work is

779
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: in there, it's tough to justify, you know, taking Michigan State.

780
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: So it really all depends on Indiana and their quarterback status.

781
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 2: Hit at SMU what I'm calling the fraud ball SMU.

782
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 2: Two teams that are still undefeated in the a SEC

783
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 2: will winner of this game will still be in the

784
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 2: conversation for an ACC title. SMU seven and a half

785
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 2: point favored. Here total sitting at fifty seven and a half.

786
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: There's questions a quarterback for both teams. I would assume

787
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: Jennings goes and I would assume Hosting goes, But there's

788
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 2: a little bit of uncertainty there. I don't think either

789
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 2: team's gonna have much success running the ball. Which team

790
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 2: can hit the pass explosives? For what it's worth, Lashly's

791
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: offense did that often in both their matchups against Nardoozy

792
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 2: and that defense. That's what you have to do. You

793
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: have to hit the explosives. Pit's going to be aggressive,

794
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 2: They're gonna have a lot of guys in the box.

795
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 2: You're gonna have guys on islands on the outside. But

796
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 2: how much does the loss of r J. Marland hurt

797
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: in that department? So yeah, this this game, I think

798
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 2: I would lean SMU. I think you have a stronger

799
00:39:59,080 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 2: take care. What do you say.

800
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 1: I do like SMU a lot in this game. I

801
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 1: think you get another week of practice without r J.

802
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 1: Maryland in your offense and you can figure out who

803
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 1: it is that your playmakers are going to be. Because

804
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: we dropped his name on the podcast last week. Matthew

805
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,240
Speaker 1: Hibner the tight end. That's a backup for r J. Maryland.

806
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 1: I think had seven targets on the season, but he

807
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 1: had six last week, so he nearly doubled his entire

808
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: season of targets in one game. And so what you're

809
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: going to look for is that offense. You know, if

810
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: they stay on the ground with inside zone for Jennings

811
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 1: and Brichard Smith, they should absolutely dominate here against Pitt,

812
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: who has shown struggles against those kinds of run concepts.

813
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 1: I think the bigger problem is the pit offense. I

814
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 1: know Eli Holstein was listed, is that he was going

815
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 1: to play. I think I saw something come across on

816
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: availability report. I don't care if it's him more RNL.

817
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: I don't think there's that big of a drop between them,

818
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: because everybody thinks Eli Holstein has been great, but they

819
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,280
Speaker 1: don't recognize the fact he has nine big time throws

820
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: to fourteen turnover wheth.

821
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: He plays, He's been so lucky.

822
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, very much. And both Holstein and Yarn now they

823
00:40:55,480 --> 00:41:00,280
Speaker 1: take major dips and draw major dips in Ajusica completion

824
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: rate when they have dropbacks with pressure, pit is outside

825
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,919
Speaker 1: the top seventy and pass blocking they're outside the top

826
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: seventy and havoc allowed. They allow defensive lines to get

827
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 1: into their quarterbacks face and that is bad news against

828
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,919
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator Randy Bates four to three of SMU Top

829
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 1: fifteen and havoc. But more importantly, the player to watch

830
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: on your TV is Elijah Roberts. The defensive end is

831
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: graded as the highest individual player in all the PFF

832
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 1: and pass rush productivity of not just any interior linebacker,

833
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 1: of any defensive player who's he going to go up

834
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,760
Speaker 1: against on the pit offensive line, Ryan Bear that offensive

835
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 1: tackle worst pass blocking grade of all the starters on

836
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 1: the line, and you're going to be facing what PFF

837
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,800
Speaker 1: calls is the best pass rusher in all of college football.

838
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 1: Not sure if Kevin Jennings is healthy, not sure if

839
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 1: that SMU offense is going to get the groove going,

840
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: But I can tell you this, that SMU defensive line

841
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: is going to eat here, So I like SMU.

842
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 2: The simple handicap of this is, you know, SMU survived

843
00:41:56,320 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: with a minus six turnover margin last week, pit you

844
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 2: know had what a plus five turn on margin with

845
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 2: three picks six.

846
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: Pal McCord had five interceptions, and to top that off,

847
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 1: stucks you just wasnt minus six. They had three interceptions

848
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: and three fumbles lost. They actually had six fumbles. They

849
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,439
Speaker 1: got three of them back. They could have had nine

850
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: turnovers last week against Duke. That's how bad it was.

851
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 2: That many dias havoc. Louisville at Clemson. This is a

852
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 2: game that I dug into last night and I came away.

853
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 2: I didn't think I was gonna play Louisville, and I'm

854
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 2: playing Louisville a small percentage in anything that just completely

855
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 2: out of touch with reality.

856
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 1: We thought they were dead.

857
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, here's the thing. So it's a bad situational spot

858
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: on the surface, which is why I thought I wasn't

859
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: gonna play Louisville. You know, Clemson's off a bye. Louisville's

860
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: playing their seventh straight game. The previous six were all competitive,

861
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 2: the last five all by one possession and one against

862
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech was closer than the final score. But what

863
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 2: have we seen all year? It's these teams that look dominant,

864
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 2: who have played nobody for long stretches, then play somebody

865
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 2: and they don't look good. I'm as high as anybody

866
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: on Clemson coming into the year. I haven't win the

867
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 2: ACC haven't to go to the coach to bell, but

868
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 2: there's a chance they're not as good as they've shown.

869
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: Over the past six weeks. They've played nobody since Georgia.

870
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 2: Here's who I mean. They've played Their average power rating

871
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 2: of the teams they faced on my power ratings seventy three.

872
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 2: They've played zero teams I have in the top sixty,

873
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 2: and they've also had a plus ten turnover margin in

874
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 2: those games. Do you know who has played good teams?

875
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:41,919
Speaker 2: Louisville over their past six games, the average power rating

876
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 2: of their opponents thirty second. They've played three Top twenty teams.

877
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 2: They've also played They also played Miami. They have bogus

878
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: call probably should have won that game. One possession loss

879
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 2: at Notre Dame, easily could have won that game. One

880
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 2: possession loss SMU another Top twenty team, one possession loss,

881
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:08,439
Speaker 2: pretty even game. Statistically, all they play up and down

882
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 2: to all their opponents. Every single one of their games

883
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: is close. They are also more than capable with Chuck

884
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 2: and this offensive getting in the back door if needed.

885
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 2: But I think this might be like a shock to

886
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 2: the system of Clemson. They've played nobody for six weeks.

887
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,280
Speaker 2: I mean, like literally nobody. You look at their schedule.

888
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 2: I mean they've played NC State, APP State, who's so down.

889
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 2: NC State is so down. Virginia we just saw get

890
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:42,760
Speaker 2: boat raced by UNC wake Forest, I mean like nobody.

891
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, And there's a lot of the early down

892
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 2: data that I was Doug digging into suggest some positive

893
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 2: aggression for the Louisville offense. They're also going to get

894
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: some turnovers and sacks. They're getting a ton of pressure

895
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:57,280
Speaker 2: beout sacks, They're gonna eventually get some turnovers, and there's

896
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 2: probably negative aggression coming from the Clemson if you look

897
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:03,760
Speaker 2: at the early down data, and the underlying metrics aren't

898
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 2: elite for this Clemson team may despite like a pretty

899
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 2: easy stretch of six games. So yeah. And then to

900
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 2: put it over the top for me, it's Brahm is

901
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 2: a dog. He has been unbelievable as a six or

902
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: more point underdog. He's eighteen and nine against the spread

903
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 2: sixty seven percent, covering by over nine points per game.

904
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 2: He's won twelve of those twenty seven games outright, with

905
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 2: an average spread of nearly two touchdowns. This is kind

906
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 2: of a gut feel because I don't show a ton

907
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: of value in this number. I think Louisville makes this

908
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 2: another close game.

909
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the problem for me has been I

910
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 1: projected eleven with a total of sixty two, and that's

911
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 1: exactly where the market is at all weeks. There are

912
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 1: some things in Clemson's defensive numbers that really shocked me,

913
00:45:58,040 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 1: Like I had to go into the database to make

914
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 1: sure I didn't screw a column up right. I mean,

915
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: the Louisville offense is fantastic in creating methodical drives. They

916
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: are fourth and quality drives, with means they get into

917
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:12,879
Speaker 1: scoring position often with their offensive possessions, So that means

918
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 1: they're going to create scoring opportunities, probably with the rush.

919
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 1: But if I'm reading these Clemson numbers correctly, you're one

920
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,919
Speaker 1: hundred and sixth the defensive line yards, you're ninety six

921
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: and defensive rushing success rate. Your trench is not stopping

922
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 1: the run. Your linebackers are not stopping the run. And

923
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 1: how are you one hundred and ninth in defensive finishing

924
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,960
Speaker 1: drives with this schedule of offenses that you face so far.

925
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: I mean, throw Georgia out of there. That number probably

926
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 1: gets worse. One hundred and ninth and defensive finishing drives

927
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: and one hundred and sixth in defensive lineyards that can

928
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,720
Speaker 1: be taken advantage of. That really gives me some pause

929
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: about some Clemson futures here, about thinking about them heading

930
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 1: up to potentially play Miami or maybe SMU in the

931
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 1: ACC Championship Game's defense has really fall off. Falling off here,

932
00:46:56,680 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: I'm going to back you on Louisville. I'm gonna make

933
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: a decision here on the over because both of these

934
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 1: defenses outside the top one hundred defensive finishing drives to

935
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: get into scoring position. Clem's in his fifth Louisville's fourth. Offensively,

936
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: both these teams should be beyond the forty all day,

937
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 1: and both of these teams have advantages over the opposing

938
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,399
Speaker 1: defenses and scoring. So I'll review the over, but I'm

939
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 1: going to join you here on Louisville putting it on

940
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 1: the board.

941
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 2: If it ain't fun to win well Man. That's a

942
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 2: sad state of affairs. That's that's one of the mention

943
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 2: of TCU Baylor. I think it is actually a good

944
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: matchup for TCU. They can't run the ball, but you

945
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 2: can't run on Baylor. You talk them through the air.

946
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 2: That's what TCU does. TCU can't stop the run, but

947
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 2: Baylor can't run it. I think TCU is a potential

948
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 2: good round robin piece there.

949
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: I didn't have anything other than I think it should

950
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: have been a pick. So I think the value does

951
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 1: lie in TCU here. And plus there's a TCU team

952
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,240
Speaker 1: that blew out Dave Randa last year forty two to seventeen.

953
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:52,879
Speaker 1: I know it's different players and it's a year ago,

954
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 1: but you know, with similar coaching staves, TCU has the

955
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 1: upp rand here.

956
00:47:58,160 --> 00:47:59,439
Speaker 2: By the way, make sure you check out the Group

957
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 2: of Five Guys episodes out now. Mike and Mike always

958
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 2: do a great job every week. Let's get to some

959
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 2: quarterback news you don't want to.

960
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: Be an.

961
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 2: Excluding teams we already mentioned with quarterback on certain Kentucky,

962
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 2: is it Wimsat or vandergriff I don't know. Cats are

963
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 2: beat up on defense and they might have quit. You

964
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: like Tennessee, right, YEP. I just can't trust Niko to

965
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 2: lay a big number. But I can't play with Kentucky Purdue.

966
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 2: I'll talk about that game later. So it's gonna be

967
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 2: Brown end card. For what it's worth. Stanford Brown started

968
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,919
Speaker 2: but was replaced by Ashton Daniels. For what it's worth,

969
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 2: Florida State, I assume they're rotating clowns again. Virginia Calandrey

970
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 2: replaced by Musket Stole. A decision to be made there.

971
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 2: That was in the state.

972
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: That's a big one there. Calandria only throws fifty yard passes,

973
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 1: so keep your eyes on a total in Virginia games.

974
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 2: Arizona State Levitt is back. Scataboo has been saying he's

975
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 2: had this game circle because they should have beat Oklahoma

976
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 2: State last week. He should have a huge day. Oaks

977
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 2: State one hundred and twenty six EPA for Russell out.

978
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 2: Texas Tech. Morton expected to go against Iowa State, but

979
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 2: he's dealing with a shoulder injury. Banged up again. UCF

980
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 2: Brown was replaced by Risk last weekend. Keep an eye

981
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: on the UCF quarterback situation. Utah Wilson was replaced by

982
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 2: Brandon Rose getting equal reps in practice worth monitoring going forward.

983
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 2: I think West Virginia probably is a quarterback battle on

984
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 2: their hands. Neil Brown just replaced his defensive coordinator. Didn't

985
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 2: say who we will go with once Green is healthy

986
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: going forward. Hitch Mountain Pride, Oregon State. I think McCoy

987
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 2: might have lost his job. He was replaced last game. Rice.

988
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:40,439
Speaker 2: I think EJ. Warner should be back. I'll talk about

989
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 2: that game in a minute. Tulsa Cooper Lagass replaced Francis

990
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:46,919
Speaker 2: and that crazy comeback. Maybe at the job is his now.

991
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 2: Zeno's still out for UAB. We'll talk usf Friday Night

992
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 2: Lights Air Force talk about that game in a minute.

993
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: Nevada Lewis is back. Pretty good matchup for Colorid of

994
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 2: State though, because they're a run first offense. Now you

995
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,879
Speaker 2: got to run on Nevada and they can defend their run.

996
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:08,759
Speaker 2: San Diego State O'Neill questionable left last game, but return

997
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 2: dealing with an injury. We'll talk about that game Friday

998
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:15,399
Speaker 2: Night Lights. Wyoming. Caiden Anderson replaced the Sovoda. He will

999
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 2: start this week Coastal Carolina. When is that game? Is

1000
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:22,959
Speaker 2: that game that's Saturday Kim replaced Vasco early. Who knows

1001
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 2: still up in the air. Georgia Southern French still the starter,

1002
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 2: even though he was replaced by Dexter Williams. Last game Georgia.

1003
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: State Friday Night.

1004
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 2: Friday Night. We'll talk about that game in a bit.

1005
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 2: Ulm looks like our that's our Menta's job now. Iowa

1006
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 2: McNamara out, Sullivan starting. You can run on Wisconsin. That's

1007
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 2: good news. And I think they upgraded a quarterback Marshall.

1008
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 2: Looks like it's Braxton's job going forward. Troy cald wells

1009
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 2: Texas State. McCleod got hurt. Worth noting earlier this week.

1010
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 2: Akron Finley is hopeful. He got hurt carried off the

1011
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 2: end of last game. Central Michigan down to Jefferson. Not

1012
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 2: sure when Burt'll be back. Miami O Gaber got hurt

1013
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:04,400
Speaker 2: but was still banged out. Worth monitoring. Northern Illinois. Hampton

1014
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 2: didn't start, but took most of the reps coming back

1015
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 2: from injury. UTAP.

1016
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: We're talking minor nation.

1017
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 2: Out in the West Tison, town of Past picks up,

1018
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 2: U Tap McConnell out lock there questionable. Is it JP

1019
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 2: Pickles time.

1020
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 1: We'll find this cat the pickles cat package. You like

1021
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: Minor Nation, I like Minor Nation. I took him atwo

1022
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 1: and a half. I'd still take him at three.

1023
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on Utap's teeth. Th that's playing

1024
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 2: better too.

1025
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 1: Hey, Scottie Walder and I knew he would get them

1026
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 1: fired up at the second half of the season. It's

1027
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 1: time for trash, the trash man pick of the week.

1028
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage,

1029
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: and you know it, totally unreliable, undependable it that's it.

1030
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:51,399
Speaker 2: You've been told off.

1031
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 1: How do you like that? Good?

1032
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 2: All right, trash, This is gonna be good trash eight

1033
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:00,080
Speaker 2: and four in the year. You want to know on

1034
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 2: your trash. We'll start with Rice. You was, I'm back

1035
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 2: on my Rice bullshit against Navy. I make this line nine.

1036
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:15,480
Speaker 2: Maybe they don't usually fault soccumb to these situational spots

1037
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,359
Speaker 2: because service guiders don't. But you got to think they

1038
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 2: got it, maybe a little flat going down to an

1039
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: empty Rice stadium after that Notre Dame game that ended

1040
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 2: their college football playoff hopes, and from a quarterback second,

1041
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 2: I think thought of I'm certainly this game, so I

1042
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 2: don't love this as much as the other two that

1043
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:35,879
Speaker 2: I'll get to. But you gotta remember who back hurt

1044
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 2: his thumb last week? What did that lead to lots

1045
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 2: of turnovers? And that could be an issue again this week.

1046
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 2: He missed time last year with a thumb injury. Rice

1047
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 2: has already seen a triple option and maybe's not a

1048
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 2: puer triple option anymore, but that'll help earlier this year.

1049
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 2: And Rice is just playing much better after the bye.

1050
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 2: They fired their head coach. We saw both underdogs last

1051
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 2: week fire their head coach. Cover. I think they'll rally here.

1052
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 2: I like betting two and six teams that have shown

1053
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: improvement of late because it's like this is like their

1054
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 2: last gasp to see if they can get to the postseason.

1055
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think this number is just too high

1056
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 2: and maybe still has regression coming its way. I mean

1057
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 2: turnover department, and Rice has been so unlucky. I mean

1058
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 2: minus eight turnover margin. They've only scored on sixty four

1059
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 2: percent of their red zone trips, only Houston as the

1060
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,879
Speaker 2: worst percentage. They've only scored eleven touchdowns on twenty five

1061
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 2: trips inside the twenty Meanwhile, maybe still plus six turnover margin.

1062
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 2: At their last week top ten nationally in red zone offense,

1063
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 2: red zone defense. They've been getting lucky, and I think

1064
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 2: or Vest's thumb injury is the thing. Warner was playing

1065
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 2: much better before last week. You can throw last week's

1066
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 2: game for Rice out there playing a true freshman, but

1067
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 2: you know Warner the two games prior to that, he

1068
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 2: threw for over six hundred yards. They out played Tulane

1069
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 2: in again, they should have won their minus five and

1070
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 2: turnover margin. I think this is too many points here.

1071
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 2: Give me Rice, who Oddly enough, you wouldn't guess this.

1072
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:08,319
Speaker 2: Since two thousand and five, only Kansas State has been

1073
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 2: a more profitable team at home in conference play. Rice

1074
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 2: is forty four to twenty eight four against the spread

1075
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 2: at home sixty one point one percent. I like Rice

1076
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 2: down to ten and a half.

1077
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 1: I like Rice here. I think they can win the game.

1078
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 1: They're going to be in my round.

1079
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 2: Robins.

1080
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 1: The response, Oh yeah, The response to Pete Alamar taking

1081
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,280
Speaker 1: over the interim coach. He was the special teams coordinator.

1082
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 1: He was the special teams coordinator for Bloomgren at Stanford.

1083
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:36,799
Speaker 1: There's a lot of fifth sixth I think a couple

1084
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,959
Speaker 1: seventh year seniors on this Rice squad that are going

1085
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:43,720
Speaker 1: to play their asses off for Pete Alamar. There's also

1086
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 1: a bit of conversation going on about changing things offensively,

1087
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 1: maybe rolling it back to the Bloomgrent offense that was

1088
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 1: there when he first showed up what he learned at Stanford.

1089
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:51,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1090
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: The one thing that I did pause on is like, Okay,

1091
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,760
Speaker 1: Rice has seen the triple, but they were destroyed by Army.

1092
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if we can improve from that performance.

1093
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 1: But least they've seen offenses trying to implement the triple,

1094
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 1: whether it's in space or is spread or veer or whatever.

1095
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 1: And that Rice team with aut EJ. Warner had no

1096
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,240
Speaker 1: business back to or covering last week. So they're still fighting,

1097
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:11,880
Speaker 1: all right.

1098
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 2: Next, Air Force, this is I have to play this.

1099
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:21,800
Speaker 2: A service academy catching over three touchdowns against another service academy,

1100
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's only happened one other time

1101
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 2: that they think it was twenty fifteen, that dominant Navy

1102
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 2: team against an awful Army team. Guess what the Navy

1103
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:36,439
Speaker 2: was ranked. Army lost by four. Since two thousand and five,

1104
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 2: service academies is underdogs of more than three touchdowns nineteen

1105
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 2: five and one against the spread seventy nine point two percent,

1106
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 2: covering by over touchdown per game plus low total. Here

1107
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:50,879
Speaker 2: FBS underdogs of more than three touchdowns with a total

1108
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 2: less than forty five sixty one percent covered by about

1109
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 2: four points per game. And Armies like, here's the thing.

1110
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 2: Look no other than last year. Last year. I mean,

1111
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 2: it's kind of eerie. This same exact situation was reversed.

1112
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 2: Air Force was eight to zero and ranked Army was horrendous.

1113
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 2: They were I think two and five. They just lost

1114
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 2: a UMass at home. They were catching eighteen. I was

1115
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 2: on this podcast saying, how we have to take Army

1116
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 2: no matter how disgusting it looks. Air Force was getting

1117
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 2: so lucky with turnovers. They didn't play anybody. Guess what happened.

1118
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 2: Air Force turned it over six times, they got blown

1119
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:34,760
Speaker 2: out at home, and what do they lose by twenty

1120
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 2: something h same scenario. Now you have an Army, you

1121
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 2: have Army trolling air Force. Air Force looks awful, they

1122
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 2: have one win on the season. Army undefeated, ranked, haven't

1123
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 2: played anybody, been getting so lucky with turnovers. I mean,

1124
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 2: but you look there. Their strength of schedule including SCS t'

1125
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty fifth. They played the Lehigh fau

1126
00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 2: Rice Temple, Tulsa, UAB, and ECU. Those teams have a

1127
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 2: combined nine to thirty three record, and one of those

1128
00:57:06,080 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 2: nine was a game when they played each other Tulsen Temple.

1129
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 2: There's regression coming. Opponents will eventually convert a fourth down

1130
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 2: against Army. They've stopped fourteen of twenty one. They eventually

1131
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 2: will score in the red zone. Armies held opponents to

1132
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:23,439
Speaker 2: a fifty three percent scoring rate in the red zone

1133
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 2: scoring rate not touchdown. That's number one of the nation

1134
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 2: by a wide margin. They know how to defend a

1135
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 2: triple option. They see it every day in practice. And

1136
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 2: they're probably making a quarterback change here and they're probably

1137
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: going with Hayes and Johnson under center. They were hurt

1138
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 2: last game. They actually showed a little bit more juice

1139
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 2: to the more mobile guys and their original starter is

1140
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 2: so bad. Hayes confirmed in Johnson looks like he's a

1141
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 2: go to. And this Army defense, they've played nobody one

1142
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 2: hundred and forty fifth strike the schedule, they're ninety second

1143
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 2: success rate against the run. I wouldn't be shocked if

1144
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 2: Air Force won like it just takes a couple of fumbles,

1145
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 2: a couple of red zone stops, over three touchdowns, and

1146
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 2: it's service Academy game.

1147
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:08,440
Speaker 1: I hate air force. I hate this play. It's gross.

1148
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 1: I don't want my name attached to it. But it's

1149
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: over three touchdowns. It's a service academy a game and wins.

1150
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 1: The last time a team in this series won by

1151
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:20,160
Speaker 1: twenty one point, by more than twenty one points two

1152
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 1: thousand and nine. It hasn't happened in West Point, so

1153
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 1: it's two thousand and six. There's just mutual respect. I

1154
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 1: think that keeps that extra touchdown from going up on

1155
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 1: the board. So I'm with you, and I hate every

1156
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 1: bit of it.

1157
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 2: You're not on the Greek tab. We're not willing to

1158
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 2: put it on the Greek.

1159
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:36,520
Speaker 1: Tab A twenty one and a half. We have to,

1160
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 1: we have to take.

1161
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 2: It all right. Last one Purdue, Yeah, this line flipped,

1162
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 2: but I still like it.

1163
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 3: No.

1164
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 2: Western stinks their offense in the in the dump, I mean, lush,

1165
00:58:47,480 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: you provided a spark, but it's it's over with. I

1166
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 2: mean those last two games, it's nineteen to forty three

1167
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 2: p one hundred and forty four yards and two picks

1168
00:58:57,160 --> 00:59:00,919
Speaker 2: and I think in this situationally, since fifth straight game

1169
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 2: stecon straight on the road, Purdue has had fifteen days off. Yeah,

1170
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 2: they played on Friday night before the bye week. Their

1171
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 2: offense starting to trend up. Waters took over play calling,

1172
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 2: they fired Graham Arrow. What did they do differently? Quarterback

1173
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 2: run game. That's opened up the rushing attack for Love

1174
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 2: and maccabie, And I think that's a good thing against

1175
00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:22,360
Speaker 2: it has been, But don't break Northwestern defense. They don't give

1176
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 2: up exposives. Perdue doesn't have explosives in the passing game.

1177
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 2: Doesn't really matter. Waters will fix some of the issues

1178
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 2: on the defense. I think during the by now it's

1179
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 2: still gonna be a bad defense. But I don't think

1180
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 2: Northwestern is the offense to fully capitalize. And uh, you're

1181
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 2: gonna get two quarterbacks, you're gonna get Brown heading card

1182
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 2: makes it harder for Northwestern prepare for. I think both

1183
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 2: can use their legs, both can bring different things to

1184
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 2: the table. And these these two teams, these two offenses

1185
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:51,280
Speaker 2: are heading in different directions. We've seen some life lately

1186
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:53,920
Speaker 2: from the Purdue offense. And you could just go back

1187
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 2: to that Illinois game they should have won. They put

1188
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,280
Speaker 2: up close to fifty. They even moved the ball against Oregon,

1189
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 2: and I think this is this is their first and

1190
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 2: last chance, by the way, had a big ten opportunity

1191
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 2: to out a big ten win. After this game. They

1192
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 2: got Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, and Penn State. Three

1193
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:16,080
Speaker 2: of those are on the road, only Penn States at home.

1194
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 2: This is the first time Northwestern's laying well. I guess

1195
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 2: their dog now, I still like it. Give me Purdue.

1196
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 1: Put us down for Purdue on the money line. I

1197
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:27,080
Speaker 1: know there's some minus one to fifteens out there. There

1198
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 1: are two teams at home this week that are playing

1199
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 1: off of a bye, facing teams on multiple road travel,

1200
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 1: Iowa State and Purdue. I like them both at home,

1201
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:38,000
Speaker 1: So put it down on the board.

1202
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 2: All right, that's your trash air force. Rice and Purdue.

1203
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 2: We're go. Let's go nowhere fast.

1204
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 1: You are about to enter a world unlike any you've

1205
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 1: ever seen before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the

1206
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 1: brave all meat.

1207
01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 2: We'll get ahead of ourselves on Friday nights. We won't

1208
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:15,439
Speaker 2: cover this game on Friday Night lights. San Diego State

1209
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,640
Speaker 2: Boise State Boise State twenty three and a half point

1210
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,240
Speaker 2: favorite here. Well, worries me here. San Diego State can't

1211
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 2: stop the run. Their past defense numbers look good, but

1212
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 2: they also haven't faced any pass offense with a pulse.

1213
01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:28,960
Speaker 2: It's not the best spot for Boise over under here

1214
01:01:29,040 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 2: or what do you say?

1215
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:32,480
Speaker 1: Leaning to the over? But the number is trickling closer

1216
01:01:32,480 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 1: to fifty five in some spots there is no answer

1217
01:01:34,640 --> 01:01:37,600
Speaker 1: for gent. I wouldn't blame anyone over taking genty touchdown

1218
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 1: props here. San Diego State lives on explosive plays. Boise

1219
01:01:41,680 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 1: is outside the top fifty defensive rush and pass EPA.

1220
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:47,480
Speaker 1: I like points here, but I'm gonna wait for this

1221
01:01:47,520 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 1: market to trim down a little bit, all.

1222
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 2: Right, Colin talking Arkansas football Arkansas this time and starting

1223
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 2: to creep out. I don't like it, o host oh miss.

1224
01:01:57,200 --> 01:02:01,120
Speaker 2: I was thinking about taking the points here. There's questions

1225
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 2: in the backfield injury wise for Arkansas, which is a

1226
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 2: bit concerning. But you can't really run on ole Miss anyway.

1227
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 2: It just has to be green creating and hitting some

1228
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 2: plays downfield, right, Do I trust this old miss?

1229
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 1: Like?

1230
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. Arkansas couldn't get to the nus Meyer

1231
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 2: because the LC's really good offensive line. Oh Miss, their

1232
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 2: offensive line is not great and they're dealing with some injuries.

1233
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 2: Can Arkansas get home, drop everyone into coverage. Trey Harris

1234
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:35,040
Speaker 2: might not play, and I mean, no, Miss, they just

1235
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:37,200
Speaker 2: go under every week. I don't I have a slight

1236
01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:40,080
Speaker 2: lean to Arkansas, and you have a better read on

1237
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:42,040
Speaker 2: Arkansas than me. You actually like the favorite here.

1238
01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 1: Woo pig suy absolute dumpster fined dumps. I don't know

1239
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 1: how we win a game the rest of the year,

1240
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: just blowing program up. Give us a death sentence. Collins

1241
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 1: talking razorback football. Yeah, Arkansas is in big trouble without

1242
01:02:57,320 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 1: Brayon Russell, who blew out his hamstring last week, and

1243
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,200
Speaker 1: Jaquinin has not practiced this week, so there is no

1244
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 1: r in the RPO for Taylor Green, which means the

1245
01:03:06,120 --> 01:03:08,160
Speaker 1: only offense we're going to be able to supply is

1246
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 1: him bootlegging or rolling out of the pocket and trying

1247
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 1: to hit somebody downfield. And it's just not going to

1248
01:03:12,840 --> 01:03:15,440
Speaker 1: work against an ole Miss team that is elite on

1249
01:03:15,520 --> 01:03:18,040
Speaker 1: the defensive line and elite in the secondary. So far,

1250
01:03:18,440 --> 01:03:20,720
Speaker 1: I just don't see a path without running backs to

1251
01:03:20,840 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 1: establish his own read and get Arkansas points on the board,

1252
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: you go to the other side of the ball. The

1253
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 1: reason Ole Miss didn't cover Oklahoma is because of Trey Harris,

1254
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 1: not because of the havoc. I believe there were what

1255
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 1: ten tackles for loss? I'm sorry, there were ten sacks

1256
01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:37,480
Speaker 1: and fifteen tackles for loss against ou last week. The

1257
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 1: Razorbacks have allowed one hundred and fourteen pressures this season.

1258
01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm worried about the Arcs offensive line.

1259
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, so no, I'm on ole Miss this week. I

1260
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: know there's this history of the Rebels coming in and

1261
01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:51,040
Speaker 1: shaking getting shook up in our en faville, but I

1262
01:03:51,040 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 1: don't see it this week.

1263
01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, let's go

1264
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:56,320
Speaker 2: for you and out.

1265
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1266
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 2: All right, we're not recording this live anymore, so we

1267
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 2: wanted to took some feedback from you guys, and I actually

1268
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:08,880
Speaker 2: agree with it because we were saving some of the games.

1269
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 2: We felt strong it's about till the end, so we

1270
01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:13,440
Speaker 2: wanted to talk about them more in the beginning and

1271
01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:16,640
Speaker 2: then we can just recap and hit Friday Night Lights

1272
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 2: in the end. So first down, let's go Friday night Lights.

1273
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:23,919
Speaker 1: Let's here gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts, Let's go play

1274
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 1: some football.

1275
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 2: Already talked about San Diego State, Boise State, South Florida

1276
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 2: at FAU. I mean, it's an awful Friday slate. I

1277
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:36,440
Speaker 2: don't think Byron Brown is gonna play right usf Their

1278
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:38,480
Speaker 2: runde has been very good. I'm not sure FAU can

1279
01:04:38,520 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 2: exploit their past D. But I don't trust South Florida's

1280
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:45,800
Speaker 2: offense without Brown. Faus D has been quietly pretty good,

1281
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:49,160
Speaker 2: especially against the pass. I think you would need like

1282
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:52,720
Speaker 2: Brown in there and running, which they don't have. It

1283
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 2: should be a runheady game, but it's fast. It's gonna

1284
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 2: be fast paced, so I don't know. I lean a

1285
01:04:58,440 --> 01:04:59,959
Speaker 2: bit to the under, but I'm not better.

1286
01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:02,920
Speaker 1: I took Florida Atlantic plus three. I like Cam Fansher

1287
01:05:02,920 --> 01:05:05,600
Speaker 1: at quarterback doing things on the ground, not throwing. What

1288
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 1: happening is UTSA is not going to happen here. Because

1289
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 1: South Florida has bottom twenty ranks in every pass defensive category.

1290
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:14,680
Speaker 1: I expect Fancer could be better throwing the ball. And

1291
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:17,920
Speaker 1: you know, look, South Florida is one hundred and eighty

1292
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 1: fifth of FBS and FCS teams and creating a contested catch.

1293
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 1: I just don't see the Fancer's problems in the air

1294
01:05:23,160 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 1: having being an issue here. Plus CJ. Campbell four yards

1295
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 1: after first contact, combine to run these zone reads with Fancher,

1296
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 1: both of them combined for twenty eight games over ten yards.

1297
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:36,720
Speaker 1: I like the power, explosive rushing attack of Florida AtlantiCare.

1298
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:40,680
Speaker 2: Georgia State at Yukon Georgia State seven and a half?

1299
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:43,160
Speaker 2: I think you bet Yukon you want to go ahead

1300
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:44,120
Speaker 2: to add at seven and a half?

1301
01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 1: No, because I took Yukon minus five and a half

1302
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:48,160
Speaker 1: on opener, and I want Georgia State at eight. I'm

1303
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 1: probably seeing the same things you are. Just Georgia State

1304
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 1: can show up against the Yukon rushing attack. They can

1305
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:59,320
Speaker 1: actually defend it. So you know, if the offensive line

1306
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:01,600
Speaker 1: is just not doing their job for Yukon whatsoever, it's

1307
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:03,920
Speaker 1: been all on the backs to create highlight yards.

1308
01:06:04,640 --> 01:06:07,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Georgia State here. Anything over our touchdown,

1309
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 2: I'll be on that small bet. It looks like Gibson

1310
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:12,600
Speaker 2: probably is the new quarterback there over there, but I

1311
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 2: don't trust this Yukon team lane at eight.

1312
01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:16,520
Speaker 1: I'm for everybody on the app at eight I'm coming

1313
01:06:16,520 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 1: back over the top of the yukon minus five and

1314
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:18,680
Speaker 1: a half.

1315
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:21,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's summarize some of our bear bets. Let's

1316
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 2: go to second down. Our favorite overdog. That's our favorite favorite.

1317
01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:28,440
Speaker 2: It's called the overdog parlay. I'll kick this off, already

1318
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 2: talked about it. Auburn take this numbers too short and

1319
01:06:32,240 --> 01:06:34,560
Speaker 2: there's some aggression coming for the Fandy team. Auburn will

1320
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:38,720
Speaker 2: be ready. That's had this game circled. It's a Ponzi week,

1321
01:06:39,440 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 2: War Eagle War Eagle.

1322
01:06:41,840 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 1: Well, it's also a row of Boat week. I'm gonna

1323
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 1: go with Minnesota's my favorite overdog. Here a number that's

1324
01:06:46,240 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 1: steaming for a reason. Specifically, Max Brosmer has been elite

1325
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:52,760
Speaker 1: throwing the ball lately. Six touch six passing touchdowns. He

1326
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 1: hasn't had a mistake in last three games. His average

1327
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 1: depth of target got over ten yards against Maryland last week.

1328
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,400
Speaker 1: That is really big for Brosmer, who's been the dink

1329
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:04,400
Speaker 1: and dunk type of quarterback. Plus Illinois, they're missing their

1330
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,480
Speaker 1: best one of their best targets on the outside, and

1331
01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:09,040
Speaker 1: Pat Bryant with a concussion, not expected to play. A

1332
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 1: lot of pressure coming to Luke Altmeyer's a way. I

1333
01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 1: like Minnesota.

1334
01:07:12,920 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 2: Let's move on to our underdog moneyline parlay.

1335
01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1336
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:27,400
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. Give me Washington.

1337
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:29,040
Speaker 2: We haven't talk about this game. I think you agree

1338
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:30,919
Speaker 2: on what I love it. Yeah, I love Washington this week.

1339
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:34,200
Speaker 2: This is a good matchup for Washington. What does USC do?

1340
01:07:34,320 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 2: They pass heavy? What is Washington elite? You're doing defending

1341
01:07:38,080 --> 01:07:38,480
Speaker 2: the pass?

1342
01:07:38,760 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 1: Number one at it?

1343
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:41,480
Speaker 2: What do you have to what do you have to do?

1344
01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:43,920
Speaker 2: Move the ball against USC? This defense that's beat up

1345
01:07:44,200 --> 01:07:47,440
Speaker 2: efficiently passed the ball. They do a good job takeaway exposives.

1346
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:51,120
Speaker 2: That's what Washington can do. USC is also not getting pressure.

1347
01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 2: Washington is just the haven't done a lot of the

1348
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 2: little things. You know, special teams is bad, the costly turnovers,

1349
01:07:58,520 --> 01:08:01,080
Speaker 2: but they've been unlucky. Some of that is going to regress.

1350
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 2: USC has been a disaster on the road. I don't

1351
01:08:03,560 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 2: see why that changes. They've been favored on the road

1352
01:08:05,400 --> 01:08:08,600
Speaker 2: three times in league played. They've lost all three games. Outright.

1353
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 2: I like this Washington team. Give me the Huskies at home,

1354
01:08:15,080 --> 01:08:17,960
Speaker 2: which you look at the Underland metrics, they're all great

1355
01:08:18,120 --> 01:08:21,000
Speaker 2: it's just that they've been so unlucky. But it's not

1356
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:22,880
Speaker 2: like USC has been buttoned up in those things, like

1357
01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 2: they lost on a blocked fuel goal against Maryland, They've

1358
01:08:26,320 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 2: blown fourteen point leads and back to back weeks, like

1359
01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 2: they're not that buttoned up either. So I like Washington

1360
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:35,719
Speaker 2: at home. Yeah, I agree there.

1361
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 1: I do agree completely, and I'm going to take Penn

1362
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:41,080
Speaker 1: State as my money as my underlying money line dog

1363
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:43,479
Speaker 1: to put in here with you. I believe in Andy

1364
01:08:43,520 --> 01:08:47,400
Speaker 1: cotal Nicky. I believe in Bo Prabula. It was mentioned

1365
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:49,679
Speaker 1: by I didn't say this before when we handicapped everything

1366
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 1: that we said about the Ohio State offensive line. How

1367
01:08:52,680 --> 01:08:54,479
Speaker 1: is Will Howard going to deal with pressure? I think

1368
01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:56,639
Speaker 1: Penn State has a lot of advantages because codal Nicky

1369
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 1: is going to get into his Kansas offensive playbook and

1370
01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:01,120
Speaker 1: put some plays down that he hasn't been able to

1371
01:09:01,200 --> 01:09:05,160
Speaker 1: use with Drew Aller. But more importantly, James Franklin said

1372
01:09:05,160 --> 01:09:08,080
Speaker 1: in his presser earlier this week, we haven't done this before,

1373
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,280
Speaker 1: and I told Andy it's changing this week. We are

1374
01:09:10,320 --> 01:09:14,080
Speaker 1: going to have a separate playbook for our backup quarterback

1375
01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:16,240
Speaker 1: and he's going to come in and get sprinkled in

1376
01:09:16,320 --> 01:09:19,519
Speaker 1: every quarter. To me, that's big. There is faith in

1377
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:22,639
Speaker 1: Pabula and codl Nikki has a special offensive playbook for him.

1378
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:25,160
Speaker 1: Gimme penn State in nine, allons.

1379
01:09:25,080 --> 01:09:27,840
Speaker 2: Let's go for it on fourth down and just summarize

1380
01:09:28,080 --> 01:09:28,959
Speaker 2: favorite bet.

1381
01:09:29,280 --> 01:09:31,639
Speaker 1: Hot damn, this is fun.

1382
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,759
Speaker 2: Air Force Service condomidy with three touchdowns against other Service Academy.

1383
01:09:35,320 --> 01:09:38,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, SMU potentially nine turnovers last week it was just

1384
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:41,920
Speaker 1: six going up against a pit team that was plus

1385
01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:45,040
Speaker 1: five getting five interceptions from Kyle McCord. It it's based

1386
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:47,519
Speaker 1: on that and the fact that SMU lost their best

1387
01:09:47,520 --> 01:09:49,200
Speaker 1: target in the passing game and now they've had a

1388
01:09:49,200 --> 01:09:51,400
Speaker 1: week to practice to try to get over that hump.

1389
01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:53,839
Speaker 1: I think havoc is what dominates here for the Ponies.

1390
01:09:54,720 --> 01:09:56,960
Speaker 2: All right, let's before we get out of here and

1391
01:09:57,040 --> 01:10:01,799
Speaker 2: let's review the board. Ten agree, Wow, Michigan plus fourteen

1392
01:10:01,800 --> 01:10:03,519
Speaker 2: and a half, South Caronina plus three and a half,

1393
01:10:03,680 --> 01:10:07,600
Speaker 2: Minnesota minus three, Auburn minus seven, Florida plus fifteen and

1394
01:10:07,640 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 2: a half, Louisville plus ten and a half, Rice plus eleven,

1395
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:15,400
Speaker 2: Air Force plus twenty one and a half perdue money line,

1396
01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 2: Washington plus three and guess what I lead two to

1397
01:10:19,360 --> 01:10:23,519
Speaker 2: one in head to head. Give me Sammy, baby, We're

1398
01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:25,840
Speaker 2: head to head. Definitely, I'm gonna put Sammy in there.

1399
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:28,800
Speaker 2: Plus seven and a half. All right, I'm not sure.

1400
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:30,640
Speaker 1: If I'll bet it yet, but just might not be

1401
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:34,479
Speaker 1: her to pick cover but personally trash air Force Rice

1402
01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:37,519
Speaker 1: Purdue also in the Averre Dead. That will do it

1403
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:41,040
Speaker 1: for us. Thanks Colin for joining me. As always, thanks

1404
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 1: to our Pusir Mat Mitchell on the back end, most Spoilly.

1405
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:45,240
Speaker 1: Thanks all of you for tuning in. Make sure you

1406
01:10:45,280 --> 01:10:47,680
Speaker 1: subscribe on Subscribe suscribe, Tell a Friend, Telling Enemy, You

1407
01:10:47,720 --> 01:10:50,400
Speaker 1: know the Drill Live Show ten thirty am Eastern on

1408
01:10:50,439 --> 01:10:53,600
Speaker 1: Saturday on our BBOC YouTube channel.

1409
01:10:53,360 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 2: And in the app. Good luck on all of your

1410
01:10:55,920 --> 01:11:00,000
Speaker 2: wages this weekend. Enjoy the Action nine five nine bavat

1411
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 2: also Voy Snails recap upisode Monday morning. Catchall this weekend. Cheers,

1412
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 2: peace out, Sister moment on your time, MASc one.

1413
01:11:14,360 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 1: And you know that you're the only one.

1414
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:19,080
Speaker 2: To fly.

1415
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:30,320
Speaker 3: Casey where you're going and what you're looking for. You

1416
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:48,720
Speaker 3: know you loved it to win the rosisim your It's true.

1417
01:11:51,000 --> 01:11:59,320
Speaker 3: Your code a rail shows those teams and Pride the

1418
01:11:59,479 --> 01:12:06,599
Speaker 3: play Off, senr size, you kis your wife?

1419
01:12:06,880 --> 01:12:07,640
Speaker 2: Do your MA.

1420
01:12:14,040 --> 01:12:17,480
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1421
01:12:17,920 --> 01:12:20,759
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1422
01:12:21,040 --> 01:12:23,680
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1423
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:24,519
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler