WEBVTT - Markets Haven't Reacted to the Shutdown, Lee Says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm m keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:33.480 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:34.960 us now, I'm pleased to say as a man whose 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.080 work has taken him from the Federal Reserve, to the 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:41.000 International Monetary Fund, to city and now to the Milken Institute, 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:43.520 where he joins us from it's Bill Lee, the chief 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.680 economist of the Milken Institute. Its great to catch up 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:48.600 with you, Mr Bill Lee. Um, can we just begin 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:50.640 with the government shutdown? And how much longer does this 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:53.720 need to go on before you start having to to 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.520 revise your first quarter GDP estimate in the United States? Well, 0:00:57.560 --> 0:00:59.080 I think this is a lot of noise, and I 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.200 think the mark It's treating it like a lot of noise. 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:02.920 So I don't think we'll do anything to our GDP 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:06.520 numbers because, let's face it, the government workers get paid regardless, 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.360 and and the thing that's disruptive right now is the 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.560 supply of government services, which on average really has been 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.400 relatively smooth so as far as our GDP forecast is concerned, 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:17.480 absolutely no effect. One of the things that we should 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:20.280 be worried about is what this means for the prospect 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:23.399 of further policies like infrastructure and the rest of the 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:26.920 Trump agenda. If we have children arguing about politics, the 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:28.479 best thing I think the president can do right now 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:30.320 is get himself out of here, which is done. He's 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:33.759 gonna go to dapost and talk about globalism and internationalism 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:37.080 and how the world is going to have have this 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.280 world in transition, how we're going to manage policy in 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:42.160 that world, and to be an adult in a playground 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:44.520 of children in here in Washington. Well, let's some use 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.160 your phrasing the playground of children in Washington before we 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:49.520 get to Dabo, Swissland with Tom Kane bill Um, what 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.280 is this mean for the potential agreement if there could 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:54.920 be one around the dead sailing which is set to 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.720 come around in the next couple of months. Yeah, that's 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:00.360 but that's key, Jonathan. I mean the act that we 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:02.160 have a couple of months and and that we know 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.560 the churchy can do something extraordinary measures to manage their 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.920 cash flow. Uh markets as and as you know, just 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.040 have not reacted to this. And if you look at 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.000 past experience, the one thing that we always prioritize are 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:15.200 the interest payments on the debt and and and not 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:17.240 to go to technical default. So one of the things 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:20.280 that that we should worry about then would be how 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:23.280 it is that the politics starts to come into play 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.720 here and whether or not the political capital is being 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:28.160 used up on the part of the Republicans and Democrats, 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:31.160 because neither side shows any sign of life. But then 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.400 the policy, Remember the policy that worried about is immigration policy. 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:37.040 This is a global problem. That's why we had Brexit, 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:39.240 right because part of the reason is because the immigration 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:43.200 policy was was threatening a national sovereignty. So so this 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:45.560 is a big issue of global issue and and I 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.080 think they have to address it. And I think right 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:50.880 now Congress has passed the book for so long, it's 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:53.920 about time the President says, look, do something about it. 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.720 Building the Milk institu Chief Economists, you want to us 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:59.280 to down Bloombecks advantage. I'm Jonathan Farall in New York City. 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:04.120 Tom Kane over in Davos, Switzerland. Tom, good morning to you, sir. 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:08.080 Good morning John Farrell, a snowy DeVos record snow and DeVos, 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:11.320 I haven't seen a really detailed history of the January 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:14.480 snow here, but I am certain it is record back 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:17.880 fifteen and even twenty five years, easily a hockey goal 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.360 of snow on the ground all the way up and 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:22.880 down the mountain. And John, as you know, getting here 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.080 can be a challenge, and you know, I think there'll 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.560 be some real challenges and getting the warm bodies up 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.639 the mountain here in the next twenty four hours, warm 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:32.799 bodies not your south Tom, can you have to get 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.360 the train all the way out the mountain. I suspect 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.160 that the President the United States is going to take 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.800 around a different route up to the mountains that I'm 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.080 that you took. Tom, Well, that's true. I think I 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.680 think the President's visit is clearly a high point here, 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:49.040 but of many high points. And William Lee, what was 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:51.880 so interesting this morning? And I guess it's not that 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:55.320 I expected this, but it's the surprise of this Monday 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.240 folks at the at the meetings is the talk of 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:03.120 Mr McCraw. He is Ben Billy on an international mission 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:09.200 for France and for a certain McCraw macrown international economics 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.880 define that for our audience. What is the economics of 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:15.920 the president of France. You know, Tom, we have both 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:18.200 joked in the past about how France is sort of 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:22.320 like the the hub of regulatory impass and policy impass, 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.479 and how France really has seen it's better day in 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:27.479 the past. Macrown is trying to change all that and 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:30.320 trying to say our policies are gonna put France back 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.480 into the center of the dynamic of capitalism again. Now 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:36.039 I think we both are sort of chuckle and saying, well, 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:38.000 good luck on that, because you have a lot of 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:42.320 bureaucracy to overcome, a lot of historical regulation overcome. One 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:44.120 of the things that that we need to make sure 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.280 of is that the political leaders would come to Davos 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:49.719 talk a good story, but let's see the action. Last year, 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.800 the president of jen Pain came from China and said, 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.840 I am a globalist. And what's happened since then, One Belt, 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.479 one road is falling apart, trying to say TRYA is 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:01.920 just too dominant here and we just can't lease our 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:05.000 sovereignty to China. I think this this year, we need 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:07.000 to watch out for what the political leaders say because 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.880 it has to be backed by action. I've got to say, Bill, 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.520 the point you make that, Tom, the idea that the 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.640 president of China was able to go to Davil Switzon 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.920 and claimed to be a globalist is something that's still 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:23.240 still makes me shake my head to this day. I agree, 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.200 and I will say this in folks, this is my 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:29.160 fourteenth year up Happy Valley. I will say that this 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:33.080 valley came to a total stop when the President of 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:37.560 China spoke last year. I wonder if that's gonna happen 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:42.320 on Friday with a scheduled speech of the President, Bill Ye, 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.000 what kind of economy is a president bringing with us 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.719 he wants to take a victory lab I'm now twenty 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:51.800 six thousand. Is it a three percent GDP economy? Tom? 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:53.760 It took Nixon to go to China, is going to 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.600 take Trump to talk about globalism. And I think one 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.760 of the things that we're gonna see is a new 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:03.000 sense of globalism that includes national priorities. And I hope 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:04.880 he makes that speech. I hope it makes that transition 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:07.120 because it's so important. One of the things that we're 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.159 going to worry about in our own milk and conference 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:13.200 in in later April early May is navigating a world 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.160 in transition, and I think one of the things that 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:18.000 that that differs from what you guys are addressing is 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.159 that you see, the world is fractured right now, and 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:22.599 how do you deal with that fractured nous? Navigating that 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.760 transition is part of that fractured nous, and I think 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:26.719 one of the things that that that has to be 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:29.160 done is to have policies in place that take into 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:32.200 account the realities of the world. We have political fractured nous, 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:35.440 we have economic fracturedness, and financial fractured nous. But now 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:37.480 how do you navigate that? And I think that's one 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.760 of the themes that we'll be discussing in Los Angeles. 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:41.920 So come to the warm weather. It's on. But this 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:44.920 doesn't have to be a difference between globalism and nationalism. 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:46.839 When the President the United States goes to DAVL. Switzer 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:48.280 and I go back to the idea that the Chinese 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:50.520 president was able to go to Davos and claim to 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.800 be a globalist, why is this administration failing to deliver 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.400 what is quite a simple message that the current framework 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:01.240 for global trade is not there, It is not a 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:05.000 level playing field. The Chinese still have significant barriers to 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:08.559 entry at the same time they are leveraging the open 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.320 door to markets in Europe and to markets in the 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:14.280 United States as well. Why is this administration really failing 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:16.920 to deliver what is at his core quite a simple 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:19.840 and basic message that I think many economists might agree 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:21.600 with that there needs to be a leveling of the 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:25.160 playing field here. Absolutely, And I think it's unfortunate that 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:29.400 the election placed Trump in this in this box that 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.640 characterized him as some wild man who's gonna shut down 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:34.520 trade and shut down all the borders and shut down 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:36.680 all of the entry into the US and make it 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:40.440 an isolated or target economy. One that that is the 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:42.800 image that he's got to get rid of and say, look, 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:45.160 we're part of the global economy and we're trying to 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:49.520 develop internationalism into a bilaber set of bilateral deals instead 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.360 of this big, massive multilateral deal that nobody's happy with. 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.680 And so so the essence is the new shaping of 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:59.520 policy initiatives has got to be to deal more with 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.280 the reality is the world and how to address them. Finally, Bill, 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:06.320 can he do that? This week? Boy fingers crossed. I 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.640 think the talk among the globalists and internationalist is the 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:12.720 guy isn't smart enough to really pull this off. And 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:14.680 I hope he's going to surprise him on the upside 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:17.280 on that, because right now the British obleek crowd are 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:19.280 writing it off and say he's just going to make 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.400 a fool of himself. Let's see if he does. Bill 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.480 Ye Milkin Institute Chief Economist. He joins us to discuss 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:40.840 the global economy. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with myself, Jonathan 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:44.319 Pharaoh in New York City and Tom Keane in Davos, Switzerland, 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:49.000 all week on Bloomberg Radio. What better time to bring 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:51.200 in a guest who has created and produced high profile 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:55.079 platforms including the World Economic Forum and You're meeting at Davos, 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:59.320 the Clinton Global Initiative, and the Noble Laureates Conferences, just 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:01.400 to name a few you. His name is Richard Attias 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.800 of Richard Attias and Associates. Richard, it's always great to 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:06.480 have you with us on the program. Thank you for 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:08.800 having me. Let's imagine you're putting together a big event. 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:10.960 It's in the Mountains of Devils, Switzerland, and then all 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:13.079 of a sudden, the President of the United States decides 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:15.400 that he's going to attend just a couple of weeks 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:19.200 before it kicks off. How much trouble does that cause? 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.600 Oh you know, it happened in two thousand when President 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:24.680 Clinton decided to come. I think it was the last 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:28.320 one who came. Of course, it's a logistic nimer, usually 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:31.079 Air Force one just landing Zurich when you have to 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:35.080 probably take helicopters to go to Davos, and we don't 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:36.960 know what would be the weather on Friday, which is 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.520 the second potential nightmare with the snow, because if the 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:43.080 snow do not allow helicopters to land, if they have 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:47.320 to take cars, which is another backstory. And then definitely 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:51.760 the city is much looked than any any other day, 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:56.480 and usually when the room is backed, everyone wants to 0:09:56.520 --> 0:10:00.360 attend the station. Definitely, the president of your night state, 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.880 whoever he is, is by definition or rock star, so 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:08.800 it's definitely a nightmare, and the city is people are 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:12.360 making big lines, so you can guess how it is 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:14.959 when the President of the United States of America is 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.439 going somewhere. So it's even worse than a very small 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:22.720 ski resort with snow and and three thousand delegates, including 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:25.640 big global CEOs, who do not understand why they should 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.480 wait to to give room to the President of the 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:32.640 United States of American. Kane also hates waiting, Richard, And 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:35.040 it's a group of big egos, so you have to 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:39.719 manage these egos, Rachel, I guess a big question and 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:44.240 logistical nightmare. But surely this is a pr dream. Yes, no, definitely. 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:48.400 You know, I think President Trump if he goes, because, 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.000 to be honest, I would not be surprised depending on 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:56.600 what happened with the government shutdown, if we suddenly learned 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.319 that he's not going anymore. But I think it doesn't care. 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.520 To be honest, he wants to go there. He wants 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.199 to talk to this elite. I'm sure he wants to 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:07.000 be a little bit provocative. And as you know better 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:10.360 than me, his way of communication is direct communication. He 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:14.000 cannot just continue to talk through Twitter. He doesn't want 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.000 to make big interviews. So who will go and he 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:18.360 will be on stage. What will be interesting to see 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.120 and to watch is which format the Print of the 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.440 United States will adopt, will be only a speech between 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.480 behind the lecturing with no questions, or if he will 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:31.640 accept to maybe take two three question, probably not from 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.200 the floor from the audience, but president probably from the 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:37.080 founder of the World Economic Farm, which probably will be 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.199 with him on stage. I hope that this question, if 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:43.480 they happen, will be very direct and it will help 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.040 to learn what is happening and what is in the 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:50.280 mind of the President Trump. That's a terrific summary. And 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.400 of course, as comes from your your decades of experience 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:57.360 for chard, well, when I look at the options that 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:01.800 the president has, which would you would I will do? 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.640 I would definitely do both. Which is delivering a twenty 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:11.079 minute speech followed by probably a ten fifteen minute Q 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:16.240 n A station Why because people need to understand really 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:21.160 what President Trump has in mind, especially with all these reforms. 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.640 We know that he would probably talk for twenty minutes 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:27.640 about how America is great, the best place to invest, 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:31.120 because he will be competing with many other destinations. You know, 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:34.560 each single world leaders who are in divorce from President 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:39.040 Macrie of Argentina, President mccron France, and probably even Theresa 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.400 May in the big paradox of the Brexit, are going 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.679 to divorce to explain to world leaders that their country 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.360 is the best place to invest today. And at the 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:52.200 time is now President mccron is hosting the minute We're 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:55.800 talking in Paris a pre divorce forum at Versailles in 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.360 the Castle of Oversailles with one d and fifty global 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:03.000 CEO who accepted his invitation, which was sent on the 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:06.520 end of December. So this is showing you how world 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:10.960 leaders are in permanent now connection with global CEOs and 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:14.600 how global CEOs wants to be connected to world leaders. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:18.680 So back to President Trump, I think definitely he should 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:22.640 explain what he's doing. You know, everybody is watching the 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:27.240 great stock markets in America, so people have to understand 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.959 if it is a bubble or if it is solid, 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:34.120 and why I should put my money in the American industries. 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:38.560 And when I look at the list of potential members 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:42.520 of cabinet coming with him, definitely they will have bilateral 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:48.120 meetings talking about transportation, health, scare, energy. These are definitely 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:52.240 the sectors where people wants to probably see opportunities in 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:57.280 the country. Richards of Richard ass and Associates great catch 0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:59.439 up with you to kind of lean on your experience 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:01.959 of putting up events like the World Economic Forum in 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.360 Dallas Switzen together. As the President of the United States 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:20.880 is sent to descend on Switzerland, John, the snow is 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.640 so great here and it is not funny. It is 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.120 very serious in Switzerland, and that of course is avalanches. 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:30.880 I have never seen the warnings out. There's Zermont I 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:35.040 believe is closed again, down to the south and um, 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.600 it's just everywhere. It's here. Here's the report at five 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:42.280 pm last night. John, you'll love this site. Psalms to 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:49.680 go ben schnee gafallen as Edward teddy Off Montaugs invite 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:57.280 there Stark schniffal voras gagnd. That's very helpful. That's about it. 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.560 That is about as clear as a government shutdown language Washington. 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:02.760 Which is a good way to migrate in German or 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.480 fractured German, I should say to the fractured nation and 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.280 is shut down, Greg Valier, where this is German is 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:13.920 is better than anybody's. German is better than mine. Greg, 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:19.440 good morning. You have seen you've seen many shutdowns. The 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.120 one that's so different here is this White House response. 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.240 What will you listen for or look for from the 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.600 White House in the next forty eight hours? Well, Tom, 0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:33.520 something explicit, something coherent from the President. I mean, so 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:38.280 far it's very unclear. Just what do you want? I 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.600 I look at it, Greg, and I think all of 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.440 us have read the obligatory articles, and we've looked at 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:47.120 the obligatory things and open question. What sticks out to 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:52.160 Greg Valier about what went down? What? What? What made 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:56.720 you scratch your head at two am? All beyond any question, Tom, 0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:00.280 the fact that Schumer put the wall on the tape. Boy, 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:04.040 he is willing to negotiate on the wall. Very unclear 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:07.160 as to how much money. They're talking about different versions, 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.640 but he did put that on the table, and I 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.400 think that's important. Greg alone wants you a question about 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:15.280 the term the white House. Tom asked you where the 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:17.680 White House stands on this issue. It's not clear to 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:19.800 me that the view of the say White House is 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.320 necessarily the view of the President of the United States. 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:24.360 That doesn't seem to be one coherent view within the 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:26.680 White House. Is something that Tom's asked me about this morning. 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:30.800 Do you see a coherent White House here? Greg, Well, 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.240 when you look at two important aids, the chief is 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.960 past John Kelly and this fellow Miller. I mean, they 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.960 both are very hard line on immigration. They don't want 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.840 consul citizenship, they want a wall, they don't want chain immigration, 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.760 all this stuff, so that they are taking a hard line. 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.440 The problem is when the president gets into a negotiating session, 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.960 he spens he wants to be conciliatory, and then these 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:59.000 advisors yanked him right back. So what leads to reconciliation 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.400 here is that the polls went against one party versus 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:05.160 the other. What leads to a break here? That could 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.119 be it, But frankly, I think this is going to 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.640 go on for a very long time. Even if there's 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:13.880 a deal today to keep the government open until February eight, 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:17.160 that just means we have another crisis on February eighth, 0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:19.920 and we could go that right back into a shutdown again. 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:23.760 Here's the problem. Both parties have activists on the right 0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:26.439 and on the left who will not agree to a 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:30.520 centrist deal, and these activists could preclude a deal quite 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:33.119 a while. You do this, Greg, in your report this morning, 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.960 you say the center may not hold. I get that, 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:41.600 but there has to be a catalyst to common sense. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:46.639 What's the catalyst? Well, I think Ms McConnell plays a 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:49.680 big role here. He he's very conscious that they could 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.560 have big losses in the November elections. I think he 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.159 also was a gas at this idea of changing the 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:59.119 filibuster rule. I think he feels that many people do. 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:02.800 Schumer overplayed his hand. So I think McConnell could play 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:06.160 actually a very constructive role. Okay, So so he can 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.360 play a constructive role, and I guess we need leadership. 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:11.439 Let me circle back to my first question. If we 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.960 all assume, whether we support Mr Trump or not, that 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:20.080 this president is a political neophyte, where's the person to 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:25.440 teach him what to do in these unusual circumstances. I 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:28.560 I Lindsey Graham is clearly front and center, is a 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:33.480 unique kind of Southern always intriguing Republican. But where's the 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:37.560 helper of the president in this mess? It could be 0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:40.880 in McConnell. I think Graham is a bit tainted at 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.560 the White House. You know another thing that could maybe 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:47.080 chasing this president, since he's so obsessed with the markets. 0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:49.960 If the dollar in the market start to weaken based 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.280 on a seer of utter chaos in this city, that's 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:55.760 something that would get Trump's attention. Well, Greg, that's not 0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:57.760 gonna work because it's not happening yet. And I remember 0:18:57.760 --> 0:18:59.200 when the president, not his states she used to be 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:01.880 called barracabam in President Obama came out and said things 0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:04.000 like the market should be worried, and it was the 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:07.040 odd dead seating debate. And guess what, the market wasn't worried, 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.119 so it wouldn't be the first one that try to 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:12.119 lean on the market to move things along. Give framed 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:16.159 this as an activist Democrats versus activists Republican story, and 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:19.840 within the core of those parties, within the electorate remains 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.160 those activists on either side. But are those activists willing 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.800 to shut down the government for their cause? Does that 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:29.840 support remain? Yes, I do. I think for now they are, 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:32.879 and as we as we discussed earlier, maybe if the 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:36.480 polls turn, it would change attitudes, but right now they're 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:39.400 dug in pretty good. And again I would caution everyone 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:41.440 if there's a deal in the next day or two 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:44.360 or three, that does not mean we get anything by 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.640 February eight. And this we could go right back into 0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:50.359 a crisis in two and a half week. So, Greg, 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.040 what does a crisis actually look like? It's a strong word. 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:56.520 What's the crisis in the nation's council? Yeah, I think 0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:58.800 a crisis is eight or nine hundred thousand people out 0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:03.760 of work and that eventually have an impact on consumer spending. Uh, 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:07.440 it certainly has an impact on defense contractors who already 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.280 are confused. We're four months into a new fiscal year 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:11.919 and they don't know what their budgets are going to be. 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:15.680 So this does become a confidence issue. We're not there yet, 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:18.119 but at three or four or five weeks shutdown and 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:20.719 I think confidence starts to erode. So correct, Let's get 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:22.960 to the bigger issue. The markets looking the other way 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.000 as far as the governments shutdown is concerned, at least 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:27.040 for now, might change, but it isn't at the moment. 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:29.560 Let's get to the debt ceiling debate. What's the read 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.080 across from this to the debt ceiling debate and how 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:35.080 ugly that could be in the coming months. Yeah, this 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:37.640 is just like the order. This is like the appetizer. 0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:41.840 The death failing story probably will peak in early April. 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:45.080 And here's here's the bottom line. There are not enough 0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:48.000 votes to raise the death failing, certainly not enough votes 0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.720 among Republicans who won't do it. Will Democrats go along 0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:55.159 and cooperate? I'm not so sure. Oh yeah, thank you 0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:57.840 so much. Greatly appreciate the briefing. After what has been 0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:00.840 and exhausted, we can we can. It's say enough about 0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:04.639 his Horizon investment effort to greet our morning with his 0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:22.439 perspective on capital. I have really been looking forward to 0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:25.920 this discussion. It's away from Davos, I guess, it's away 0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:30.200 from economics, I guess, And maybe it's just about where 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:34.200 we're all heading in our homes. Yes, in our businesses, 0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:38.600 but in our homes with this thing called media. Craig 0:21:38.640 --> 0:21:42.320 Moffatt and Michael Nathanson have a shingle out of excellence 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:47.200 on media and telephonic analysis at Moffatt Nathanson. They worked 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.919 for years at Sanford Bernstein, and Michael Nathanson joins us 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:54.960 right now. Michael, I could start with eight topics, but 0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:58.040 I'm going to give you an open question of the 0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:02.359 cliche of a decade ago, which is content is king? 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:07.520 Is content still king? The morning? Tom Um? I think 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:10.400 I think we're moving to something called platform is king. 0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:15.360 I think it's about getting massive aggregation, scale and content. 0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:17.119