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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire? Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Monday,

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Speaker 1: August second August means football. It is here and to celebrate,

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Speaker 1: we have a great guest, Aaron Chatz, Football Outsiders. Folks,

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Speaker 1: You're gonna love it. It's gonna get you geeked for

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Speaker 1: the NFL. Obviously, there's football very very soon. Also, if

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Speaker 1: you're listening to this in the morning, you might want

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Speaker 1: to flip over to FS one and see your boy

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Speaker 1: on Undisputed with Broussard and LaVar Arrington. Should be fun.

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Speaker 1: But before we get the football, before we get the Undisputed,

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Speaker 1: I gotta talk about two things. First of all, I

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Speaker 1: hope everybody had a phenomenal weekend. Ours was excellent. Um

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Speaker 1: wife and I went to a brand new restaurant, some

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Speaker 1: Mexican food. Really nice time. Also, daughter had her best

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Speaker 1: basketball game of the summer league season. If you follow

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Speaker 1: me on the Graham you obviously know that. But bigger

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Speaker 1: than both of those, yes, the world is larger than me.

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Speaker 1: How about us A beating Mexico and extra time right

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Speaker 1: before penalty kicks, Miles Robinson with the header and the

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Speaker 1: US beats Mexico for the second time this summer. Folks,

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Speaker 1: that was as good of a two and a half

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Speaker 1: hours worth of soccer as you will find heart stopping stuff.

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Speaker 1: The US really was in trouble in the first half.

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Speaker 1: I mean Mexico totally dominated a multiple chances. US had

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Speaker 1: a couple of good chances. Second half US claus back.

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Speaker 1: They blew a couple of chances, and then a dirty

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Speaker 1: foul on a breakaway UM by Mexico led to the

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Speaker 1: US free kick service into the box. Beautiful header. And

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Speaker 1: if you're a Mexican soccer fan, you've gotta be a

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Speaker 1: little dispirited right now. Obviously I do like Mexican soccer.

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Speaker 1: I own a team in Lega MX. I'm not the

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Speaker 1: primary owner, but I'm a partial owner. Um. Also, we

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Speaker 1: lost over the weekend, so we're out owen two. Not

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Speaker 1: a great start. UM. By the way, the Nicasa Goli

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Speaker 1: is on the Mexican Olympic team. UM, and they may

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Speaker 1: win a gold medal, we'll see. But at any rate,

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Speaker 1: US twice beating Mexico in or two months span. This

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Speaker 1: was the B team. The last time they beat him

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Speaker 1: with the A team, also at extra time. Polictit converting

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Speaker 1: a p K just exciting stuff for US soccer. I

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Speaker 1: know they're down. They didn't qualify for the Olympics last time,

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Speaker 1: and um, you know, didn't qualify for the World Cup

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Speaker 1: is devastating. But sometimes in life you gotta hit rock

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Speaker 1: bottom before you bounce back, and folks, US Soccer is

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Speaker 1: bouncing back big. The future is bright. I know you've

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Speaker 1: heard that before, but it feels different this time. Beating

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Speaker 1: Mexico twice in one summer is extraordinary. And um, that

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Speaker 1: was fun. That was That was a great Sunday night. Um.

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Speaker 1: The other story before we get to Aaron chats at

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Speaker 1: Football Outsiders and be a free agency begins today at

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Speaker 1: six pm Eastern. But you know how the this works,

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Speaker 1: Tons of stuff, tons happening behind the scenes all weekend.

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Speaker 1: And Woades dropped a bit of a bomb Sunday night

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Speaker 1: that Miami is the front runner to land Kyle Lowry

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Speaker 1: in a sign and trade. Now here's what's super interesting

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Speaker 1: from the Lakers fans perspective. Laker fans have been like, oh,

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Speaker 1: maybe we'll get tomorrow de Rosin, He'll come home. Folks,

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Speaker 1: I'm hearing If Kyle Lowry goes to Miami. DeMar Derozen

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Speaker 1: will be going with him to Miami. That is where

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Speaker 1: DeMar Do Rosen will land. If remember him and Lowry

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Speaker 1: Ruddies in the backcourt in Toronto forever Miami. It sounds like,

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Speaker 1: based on the Woad story, is gonna do some sign

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Speaker 1: and trade. They're not giving up Tyler Hero, which is crazy.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like the package is centered around Goran Dragic

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Speaker 1: and precious a Chua, the guy they drafted. Not a

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Speaker 1: huge hole. But I just want everybody to pump the brakes, like, yes,

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Speaker 1: Miami is gonna be in the mix if they bring

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Speaker 1: back Butler and Bam and Hero and Lowry and Thros Like,

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Speaker 1: that's a really good team in the East. It's not

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Speaker 1: NETS caliber, but just like this is not Kyle Lowry

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Speaker 1: won the NBA title. Okay, this is Kyle Lowry who

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Speaker 1: is thirty five years old. He turned thirty six next year,

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Speaker 1: right before the playoffs begin, And I just want to

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Speaker 1: remind you Kyle Lowry had a pretty bad year. Uh,

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Speaker 1: definitely down for him. And I know the Raptors stunk,

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Speaker 1: uh and he had the injuries and it was a

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Speaker 1: COVID year and they were playing in Toronto, they were

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Speaker 1: playing in Florida. He you could start to see the

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Speaker 1: decline a little bit. This guy who five years ago

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Speaker 1: was forty six percent from the field for from three

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Speaker 1: twenty two and seven, Like he was down to shooting

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Speaker 1: thirty nine from three seventeen a game. His minutes are down.

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Speaker 1: Like I know he's a good defender, and he's gonna

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Speaker 1: take pride obviously in defending, and he wants to play

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Speaker 1: with Jimmy Butler. And Jimmy Butler plus Kyle Lowry plus

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Speaker 1: BAM is a nasty defensive trio like no Lie or,

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Speaker 1: as my son likes to say, no Cap. They can

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Speaker 1: defend Harden, Hyrie and uh and and Kevin Durant. Now

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Speaker 1: they gotta get there. They got swept by the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: but we know they went to the finals year prior.

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Speaker 1: They were exhausted. Every team that went deep into the

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Speaker 1: playoffs last year was extinguished early. Um Nuggets did get

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Speaker 1: out of the first round, but kind of luckily over Portland,

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Speaker 1: which is new is imploding as we speak. But Kyle

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Speaker 1: Lowry to Miami sounds like it will be one of

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Speaker 1: the first dominoes to fallow. Now I'm not gonna go

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Speaker 1: too deep on this because there will be plenty of

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Speaker 1: moving parts for tomorrow's podcast. But if Lowry goes to Miami,

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Speaker 1: what does this mean for a Lonzo Ball, the alleged

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Speaker 1: twenty million dollar man. Everybody was using the heat as

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Speaker 1: leverage for their point guard because remember Mike Conley could

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Speaker 1: leave the Jazz, sounds like he's staying. Alonzo's out there.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what Reggie Jackson's game plan is, but

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Speaker 1: there's several point guards that's like the deepest position this offseason.

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Speaker 1: Lowry obviously is one of them, and people think he

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Speaker 1: can be a big difference when it comes to like

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Speaker 1: winning a title. But um, a lot of dominoes to fall.

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Speaker 1: I I personally, I don't know. I feel like teams

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Speaker 1: are gonna play it close to the vest. Obviously, there's

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Speaker 1: the Kauai news. Kauai opting out not a huge shocker.

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Speaker 1: I will say I would give it a tiny, tiny

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Speaker 1: sliver of a chance that Kauai ends up in like

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Speaker 1: Miami or something. Um, I know everybody's going to Miami,

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Speaker 1: ha ha, but maybe Kauai and the Clippers structure it

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Speaker 1: so that he doesn't eat as much salary this year.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know if that's possible, in hopes that,

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Speaker 1: hey man, you're not playing for the entire regular season,

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Speaker 1: we will obviously pay you, but let's back end, backload

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Speaker 1: the contract so we can have some flexibility to get

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Speaker 1: better this year. Otherwise it's gonna have to be the

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Speaker 1: Paul George, Terrence Mayn and I guess Reggie Jackson show.

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Speaker 1: I don't love that in the West, all right, So

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Speaker 1: without further ado, let's get to Aaron shots of Football Outsiders.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna love this and um he also thinks the

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Speaker 1: Jets are going to be the worst team in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports dance want, but for

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Speaker 1: everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who knows a guy

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Speaker 1: who knows another guy. Let's welcome into the podcast a

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Speaker 1: special guest. Listen, this guy knows football as well as anybody.

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Speaker 1: The Football Outsiders is mandatory reading if you gamble on

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Speaker 1: the NFL, hell if you if you do fantasy, you

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Speaker 1: just want to understand the league. I have gotten such

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Speaker 1: a better understanding since I started going deep every day

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Speaker 1: into Football Outsiders. Aaron Chatz, how are you, man? I'm good.

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Speaker 1: It's been a good summer. We did a lot of

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Speaker 1: hard work. Our book is out and I am ready

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Speaker 1: for a new season. Yeah. I I mean the calendars

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Speaker 1: into August and instantly it's like football, Like I know,

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Speaker 1: NBA free agencies happening, and there's Olympics are still going on.

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Speaker 1: Although I gotta be honest, I don't know what channel

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Speaker 1: any of this stuff so on, and there's a million

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Speaker 1: channels in the so I'm like, I've just given up

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Speaker 1: and I basically spent the weekend, you know, going to

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Speaker 1: my kids sporting events and reading the Football outside er

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Speaker 1: his almanac. It is incredible. Um, I don't know. Is

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Speaker 1: there a team you want to start with. I thought

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Speaker 1: we would open with Aaron Rodgers, but people are turned

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Speaker 1: off by him a lot. If you want to start

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Speaker 1: somewhere else, we can. But I got a lot of

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Speaker 1: questions for you. But where would you like to start?

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Speaker 1: You're the special beast. We could hit the whole league.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we can specify just on the teams that

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Speaker 1: were a little bit higher on the like Minnesota and

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Speaker 1: New England. We can talk about teams were a little

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Speaker 1: lower on than everyone else, like Cleveland and the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: But if we need to talk Aaron Rodgers, Lord knows,

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Speaker 1: I'll been doing a lot of thinking about Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: over the last few months. I don't know, I mean else, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you could be a little short, but I am just curious, Like,

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Speaker 1: besides obviously being annoyed at Aaron Rodgers for dragging us

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Speaker 1: through all this nonsense to eventually capitulate. Um, I'm just curious,

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Speaker 1: where are you on the Packers because their schedule got

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Speaker 1: significantly tougher, and I know they have a good team.

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Speaker 1: I just wonder, Man, is it can they really do

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Speaker 1: three straight years of this? Davante Adams is unhappy. Um,

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Speaker 1: they got a new defensive coordinator. I don't love the

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Speaker 1: Packers as much as everybody else. I wouldn't bet them

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Um, but it sounds like

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Speaker 1: you like the Vikings a lot. So maybe we'll just

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Speaker 1: start with Packers and the and the Vikings in that division. Well,

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Speaker 1: I will say we still have the Packers ahead of

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Speaker 1: the Vikings in our projections, but we have them both

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Speaker 1: as likely playoff teams this year. Um. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think the Packers can do the same thing that they

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Speaker 1: do every year. There's no reason they can. They can

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Speaker 1: have a really good offense with a mediocre defense. They

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Speaker 1: are playing a tough schedule, but so does their whole division.

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Speaker 1: So that's something that Green Bay in Minnesota actually have

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Speaker 1: in common. The NFC North has the toughest schedules in

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Speaker 1: the league. Chicago is our number one highest toughest projected schedule. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think Green Bay Aaron Rodgers was playing at a

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Speaker 1: level where he was like the like nine best quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the league, and then all of a sudden last

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Speaker 1: year he was back to being the best or second

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Speaker 1: past Yeah, can he continue that for another year? I

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Speaker 1: think the most likely scenario is something sort of in between,

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Speaker 1: where he's like the fifth or sixth best quarterback. But

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Speaker 1: they've got a good running game, they've got a strong

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Speaker 1: offensive line. That offense is strong all around. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: know the wide receiver corps doesn't go that deep, but

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Speaker 1: they've got good wide receivers, not great wide receivers other

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Speaker 1: than Davante Adams. So I think they absolutely can go

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Speaker 1: deep in the playoffs again, but they're not the favorites

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Speaker 1: of the NFC. Tampa Bay is the prohibitive favorite of

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Speaker 1: the NFC for this year. I mean, their their division

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Speaker 1: lost Drew Brees, and you know there was talk about

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Speaker 1: the Bucks maybe going undefeated. Is that Do you want

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Speaker 1: to just squash that an hour? Do you think that

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Speaker 1: there is any chance? I mean, listen, I like the

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Speaker 1: Panthers a little bit. Um, I don't love them. I

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Speaker 1: don't love the Falcons. They probably run the table in

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Speaker 1: that division. Um, the schedule does not look that difficult

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Speaker 1: for Tampa. No, the schedule is easy. The answer is

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Speaker 1: there's always a chance. Golly would I not want to

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Speaker 1: bet on it that chance is more than one percent.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the first of all, I think the Saints

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Speaker 1: are better than you give them credit for. Their defense

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Speaker 1: has been good for the last couple of years. I

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Speaker 1: think their defense is going to be really good again.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be a Saints team that looks very different

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Speaker 1: from what we're used to. They're gonna be carried by defense,

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Speaker 1: not by offense. But Tampa Bay is a great team

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Speaker 1: all around that happens to have one of the easiest

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Speaker 1: schedules in the league. So I have compared these Saints

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Speaker 1: two last year's Patriots. Right, you lose a Hall of

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Speaker 1: Fame quarterback Brady and Breeze. Uh, you lose a bunch

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Speaker 1: of opt outs to the Patriots, Covid and the Saints

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Speaker 1: I think lost four or five defensive starters and now

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Speaker 1: the receivers of Michael Thomas going down, they have no

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Speaker 1: receivers and and uh, Cam Newton had no receivers last year.

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Speaker 1: I just wonder if the Saints are of five or

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Speaker 1: six win team, is that too low on them? I

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Speaker 1: think that I think I think that's too low. I

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Speaker 1: think that there is more defense. Guests lost a couple

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Speaker 1: of starters on defense. There is a lot more of

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Speaker 1: defense left for the Saints than what was left for

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Speaker 1: the Patriots last year. Also, the Patriots, the defense that

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Speaker 1: they played in twenty nineteen was so heavily built on

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Speaker 1: turnovers that it was just screaming for regression. The Saints

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Speaker 1: defense is not quite in the same boat. So I

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Speaker 1: think the Saints defense is going to be very good

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Speaker 1: and I think that that will lift them. I absolutely

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Speaker 1: agree with you losing Michael Thomas. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you can expect him to come back before

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Speaker 1: mid season. If that is a big loss, because there's

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Speaker 1: just nothing else at wide receiver for them. It's just

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys who are like, oh, maybe if

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Speaker 1: this guy kind of puts it together, he'd be a

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Speaker 1: good number three Like those are the other guys they have, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Mark Wise Callaway, but that's also with the quarterback like

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Speaker 1: Drew Brees. Um, I don't know who's the starter there.

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Speaker 1: Do you think Jamis gets it or tastes him? Man,

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Speaker 1: I'm rolling my eyes. That problem with do an audio

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Speaker 1: as you can't see the eye roll because logically it

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Speaker 1: really has to be Jamis Winston. Look, I know that

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Speaker 1: Winston had the thirty interceptions in his last year in

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Every other year, Jamis Winston was about the

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Speaker 1: fifteen or sixteenth best quarterback in the league. For most

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Speaker 1: of his career, he was an average NFL starter, And

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Speaker 1: that is much better than what you're going to get

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Speaker 1: out of Taysom Hill. That is just much better than

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Speaker 1: he was. He was average with Mike Evans right, and

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Speaker 1: I think he had Godwin there, so they had wept

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Speaker 1: here or two. He had Godwin. Yea, they had some weapons. Um,

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Speaker 1: Taysom god I'm trying to make a case for Tayson Mill.

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Speaker 1: I'll just stop there. I was trying to think of

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Speaker 1: what there really is and he can't throw the football. No,

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Speaker 1: I mean he The funny thing is his numbers are

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Speaker 1: even better than they should be last year because he

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Speaker 1: had that one duck to Emmanuel Sanders was really badly

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Speaker 1: thrown and Sanders somehow came down. But no, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I just I don't understand Sean Payton's love affair with

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Speaker 1: Taysom Hill as a quarterback. Like he's an interesting at

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Speaker 1: a weapon. He actually is a good receiver. I don't

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Speaker 1: understand the love affair with him as a starting quarterback

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Speaker 1: at all. All right, let's go back to the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: People were high on them last year, and for whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: I had seen the defensive turnover and I was like wow.

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Speaker 1: And then they opened in the first game and Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers I think, up and down the field touchdowns on

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Speaker 1: like six of seven drives to start something insane. And

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Speaker 1: they were really bad. But by season's end they had rebounded. Um,

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Speaker 1: and it feels like, you know, offensively they'll be fine. Um.

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Speaker 1: I just wonder though the defense. Do you think there

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Speaker 1: will be enough there eron for for a playoff push. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they've added talent on defense, They've added guys. They're getting

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Speaker 1: Michael Pierce back from COVID, They're getting Daniel Hunter back

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Speaker 1: or Daniel Hunter from UH injury, the cost of the

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Speaker 1: whole year, adding Patrick Peterson to the secondary, There's there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of added talent on defense there. And there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of ways in which Minnesota last year was

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Speaker 1: bad in things that tend to regress to the meet,

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Speaker 1: like the difference between first and second down offense and

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Speaker 1: third down offense. They were terrible on third down and

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Speaker 1: that tends to regress. Special teams. They were the second

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Speaker 1: worst team on special teams that tends to war. Injuries.

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Speaker 1: They were had a very heavily injury count that tends

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Speaker 1: to regress. So there's a lot of things pointing up

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Speaker 1: for Minnesota this year. I don't think they're a Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl contender, but I absolutely think they are a wild

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Speaker 1: card contender. So it feels like in the NFC you

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Speaker 1: are pro packers. Um, you know. I I don't know

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Speaker 1: what to make of the NFC West because it's it

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Speaker 1: feels like there's a lot of good teams there, but

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Speaker 1: all of them I can puncture holes in fairly easily.

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Speaker 1: I am kind of obsessed with the Rams because I

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Speaker 1: did take a flyer on them to win the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl when Matt Stafford arrived. And then you just look

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Speaker 1: at the roster and it's like they're trying something Aaron

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Speaker 1: that I don't know that we've seen in the league before.

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Speaker 1: Just this whole we're punting on first round picks. We

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Speaker 1: don't care about them. We're just gonna go with a

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Speaker 1: few superstars, like the NBA style um and try to

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Speaker 1: win it. I like the you know, the creativeness from

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Speaker 1: from that organization, and I like McVey, but are they

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Speaker 1: really one of the best teams in the NFC. I'm

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Speaker 1: working right now on an article for ESPN about ranking

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Speaker 1: the teams by talent under twenty five and the Rams

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Speaker 1: rank thirty one. They keep they keep trading away their

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Speaker 1: first draff. There's no first round picks, right, But does

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Speaker 1: that even matter? No. I mean, if you've got enough talent,

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Speaker 1: it shouldn't matter. The problem is, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: they have as much talent as people think that they have.

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Speaker 1: I think Stafford, it's a really difficult to figure out

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Speaker 1: the whole Stafford versus Golf thing. Look, we're stat analysts

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Speaker 1: that what we do with football outsiders, and if you

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Speaker 1: look at the stats, you don't end up with Stafford

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Speaker 1: being a massive improvement on golf. For last year. Last

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Speaker 1: year Stafford was better than golf. Absolutely, But if you

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Speaker 1: look over the last two or three years, Stafford is

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Speaker 1: that much of an improvement on golf. You really have

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Speaker 1: to believe that the importance of that scheme and McVeigh

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Speaker 1: to golf, it's just was so important that he's just

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Speaker 1: going to totally fall apart and that McVeigh could turn

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Speaker 1: Stafford into something that he's never been, which is he's

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Speaker 1: never really been a top five quarterback. He's a good quarterback,

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Speaker 1: but he's never been a top five guy. He had

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Speaker 1: half a good he had half a really excellent season

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Speaker 1: in but it was half a season. I you know,

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Speaker 1: given his whole career numbers, and it's not like he

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Speaker 1: hasn't been you know, he hasn't had receivers. He had

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Speaker 1: Calvin Johnson early in his career, the last couple of years,

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Speaker 1: he had Marvin Jones, he had Kenny Golladay. He's had

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Speaker 1: guys to throw too. So I wonder where I wonder

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Speaker 1: is it not that he didn't have receivers, but he

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Speaker 1: never had the balance in the offense, like they never

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Speaker 1: had a running game combined with a passing game at

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Speaker 1: the same time. And then the defense, like they never

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Speaker 1: had a complete team in Detroit. Well, he certainly didn't

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Speaker 1: have a defense. There was like one year under Terry

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Speaker 1: Austin where they had really good defense, and it was

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Speaker 1: just it lasted for a year that it fell apart

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Speaker 1: um the other perhaps the other thing I have going

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Speaker 1: on with the Rams is I don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen to their defense without Brandon Staley. Um. The

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Speaker 1: fact is that all other things being equal, when you

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Speaker 1: have a new coordinator, you take a step back. But

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Speaker 1: the Rams didn't last year, so it doesn't always happen.

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Speaker 1: They could be really good under Rocky Morris, but I

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Speaker 1: think that they lost They lost some players from that

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Speaker 1: defense Ebucam and John Johnson, who's a really great safety,

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Speaker 1: and Troy Hill and and they're depending on Brockers. They

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Speaker 1: got rid of Rockers. They're depending on a lot of

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Speaker 1: new players on that defense. So I think it's not

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Speaker 1: just that I don't think the offensive improvement is going

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Speaker 1: to be as good as people expect. I think their

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Speaker 1: defense is going to take a big of a bit

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Speaker 1: of a step back. There's still gonna be playoff contenders.

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Speaker 1: And they're in the best division in the game. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the NFC West is the best division of the game.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not I'm not super high on the ramps

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Speaker 1: this year. So who's when? Who do you have winning?

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Speaker 1: Who do the numbers, the d v O numbers have

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Speaker 1: winning the NFC West. I know, call this crazy, but

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Speaker 1: we have Seattle on top. What despite the questions at

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Speaker 1: set in the secondary, obviously there's a lot of questions,

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Speaker 1: there's still a lot of talent in their front seven.

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Speaker 1: They added a ton of path rush. Although I don't

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Speaker 1: know what's going to happen to Aldon Smith with his

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Speaker 1: legal issues, and Russell Wilson covers a lot of hills.

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson covers all historically he has. But there was

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Speaker 1: something that went on the second half of last season,

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Speaker 1: I think starting with the Buffalo game on the road

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Speaker 1: where Pete Carroll just like was like too many turnovers

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Speaker 1: were going back to the run. I know, I don't

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Speaker 1: want him to go back to the run. I want

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Speaker 1: them to let Russ cook. Uh. We have them number one.

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Speaker 1: We have them a little bit ahead of San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: We have San Francisco very high as well. Their defense.

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Speaker 1: They're getting all those guys back. They were so injured

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Speaker 1: last year and they're getting all those guys back, and

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Speaker 1: they should to be really good because either Garoppolo is

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Speaker 1: going to be the quarterback and Garoppo has been reasonably

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Speaker 1: good throughout his career, or they're going to decide that

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Speaker 1: Lance is better. And I sort of make the assumption

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Speaker 1: if the team decides the rookie is better, the rookie

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Speaker 1: is probably better. Wow, that's that's right now. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I just want to slow down on Seattle because all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden you have Seattle, San frand the Rams three.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's no continuity in Seattle, right, didn't they

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Speaker 1: dump Shoddy and they got a new offensive coordinator. They

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Speaker 1: do have a new offensive coordinator, that is true. And

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Speaker 1: other well, like I said, all other things being equal,

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Speaker 1: that's a step back. And San Francisco lost I think

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Speaker 1: three defensive starters and defensive coordinator and sale they get back.

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Speaker 1: Look at who they get back starting with BOTHA. That's right,

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Speaker 1: so they'll be healthy man that division. There's questions in

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Speaker 1: the secondary for San Francisco. Both Seattle and all three

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Speaker 1: of these teams have questions in the secondary because with

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Speaker 1: the Rams, you're like, who's replacing Troy Hill and who's

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Speaker 1: replacing John Johnson. With Seattle, the cornerbacks are questionable. With

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, the cornerbacks are questionable. By the way, with Arizona,

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Speaker 1: the cornerbacks are Malcolm Butler and like nothing. The whole

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Speaker 1: NFC West, despite being strong in so many ways, has

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Speaker 1: secondary questions. All right, Aaron, I'm contractually obligated to ask

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Speaker 1: you about the Dallas Cowboys, So go love the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: this year. What I'm actually locking them? Yeah, I'm actually

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Speaker 1: because I don't want to be chalk and I want

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Speaker 1: to be kind of interesting. I've been telling people my

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Speaker 1: subjective pick is Dallas to go to the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Oh my, you guys can't see that. My jaw just dropped.

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Speaker 1: The Dallas Cowboys. I mean, we talk about defenses, new

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Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. I don't know what is gonna be blah,

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Speaker 1: but I mean I think that defense Nolan, the defense

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Speaker 1: that Nolan was running was really bad. Like I think that.

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to get better on defense and

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Speaker 1: their defense will be kind of the middle of the pack.

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Speaker 1: What about this hard knocks thing where they you know,

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Speaker 1: teams are going hard knocks, potential to unravel. You know,

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Speaker 1: Jerry is gonna be a camera hog McCarthy. The spotlight's

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Speaker 1: gonna be on them. We know, kind of a questionable,

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Speaker 1: shaky year, Ezekiel Elliott, all this stuff. Jerry is gonna

425
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: be too worried about the Buffalo Bills moving to Austin

426
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: to cause I saw that news. First of all. I

427
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: saw that news come on and there's nothing. I don't

428
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: really think that's a thing. I'm kidding. Yeah, Austin, Texas

429
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: getting an NFL team. All right, fine there there, we

430
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: got the Cowboys out of the way. Let's go to

431
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 1: the um A f C where everybody. All they care about,

432
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 1: you know, is my New York Football Jets. Um no,

433
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: we'll we'll spend thirty seconds on the Jets because there's

434
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: just not much there. It's a rebuilding year. They're changing

435
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: the culture. I'm just hoping they're not like, you know,

436
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,479
Speaker 1: a three win team long term promise short term. We

437
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 1: have them with the lowest projection of the law. Lowest.

438
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,199
Speaker 1: Do you think they're the worst, dude, They don't have

439
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 1: the roast worst roster, though, do they That's pretty bad.

440
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 1: It's every they upgraded, like every offensive position. They got

441
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: tons of guys in the code on offense. Yeah though

442
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 1: they did. But again, the problem with rookie quarterbacks is

443
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 1: you don't know how good they're gonna be. Um, you

444
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 1: can't assume rookie quarterbacks are going to be above average.

445
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 1: The average rookie quarterback, even first round picks, even high

446
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 1: first round picks, is below average and then takes a

447
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: jump in their second year. So you can't expect that

448
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson's gonna be really good out the gate. Could

449
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,719
Speaker 1: he could? He be? Yeah, he could, but it's not likely.

450
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: And Houston, for all that they look like a trash

451
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 1: dumpster fire, added a lot of like better than replacement

452
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: level but below average talent and a lot of positions,

453
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 1: they look kind of like an expansion team without a quarterback.

454
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: So we have Houston thirty one. You have Houston ahead

455
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: of the Jet Oh my gosh. Fox Sports Radio has

456
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 1: the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all

457
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 1: of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and

458
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 1: within the I Heart Radio app search f s R

459
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: to listen live. I am irrationally high on the Browns.

460
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 1: I did read the Browns preview, and I sent some

461
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 1: trepidation from football outsiders. I also saw nine new defensive starters.

462
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 1: Maybe that's to believe. I know. I've got the X

463
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: Files poster on my wall. I want to believe in

464
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns. I do. I like Browns fans, I

465
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 1: like the Brown's front office, but our numbers. Listen, is

466
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 1: it possible that we are under projecting their defense because

467
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: of all the new talent. Absolutely it's possible, but they

468
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 1: lost a lot of talent. Along with gaining a lot

469
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 1: of talent. There's a lot of new, but there's also

470
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: a lot of old that's gone, like Olivier Vernon and

471
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: Sheldon Richardson and Larry oga job Um. On offense, I

472
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 1: think they are good but not great. And I don't

473
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: see Odell Beckham coming back making them great because when

474
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: they had Odell Beckham, they weren't great. So I think

475
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: what I what we end up with is a team

476
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: that's good on offense and bad on defense and special

477
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: teams and has a hard schedule and it kind of

478
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 1: comes out to an average team. I know, I I

479
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: know what people feel that they are a very very

480
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: strong Super Bowl contender, but we never have them anywhere near.

481
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: We have a very clear top three in the a

482
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: f C. That Chiefs, Chiefs, Bills, and News. The other

483
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: one Ravens Ravens. Interesting, now I have to I mean,

484
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: I just I'm not sure the Ravens are the best

485
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: team in the division. Are you certain that the Ravens

486
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: given the offensive line issues, I think they lost a

487
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 1: couple of starters on defense, Lamar what is this year

488
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: four for Lamar? Like it's time for him to learn

489
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: how to throw outside? Yes, there's no question about that.

490
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: I liked the pickup of Justin Houston. They cannot complain

491
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,479
Speaker 1: about Lamar Jackson's receivers anymore. They've put a lot of

492
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 1: assets into the receiver position. Remember that when we do

493
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: our projections, we're looking at numbers over three years. Obviously,

494
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: the most important is last year. But two years ago

495
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 1: the Ravens had one of the best regular seasons we've

496
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: ever measured, and there is definitely a good chance of

497
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: them bouncing back towards that on offense, and their defense

498
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: was really good year. And you add in the fact

499
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: that they're one of two teams where you can actually

500
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 1: expect to get value out of special teams every year,

501
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: and they we just really really like the Ravens. Now,

502
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: the numbers came out with the Ravens is the number

503
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: one team in the a f C subjective Subjectively, do

504
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 1: I think that the Ravens are the most likely team? Now?

505
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs are the most likely team. But

506
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: our numbers really like the Ravens. So, and that's a

507
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 1: good question. I'm sure people are listening, you know, they

508
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,199
Speaker 1: know the d v O A number that the football

509
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 1: outsiders do. How much do you do I test and

510
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 1: culture and that stuff. You can't quantify it. But like

511
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 1: you just said, the numbers say Ravens number one, but

512
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: you know Ravens aren't number one. We write about it.

513
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: That's why we do a book instead of just a

514
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 1: bunch of tables of numbers. Right. It's like we write

515
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 1: in the chapters when we feel that our projections are

516
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: a little off. I think I think the Cleveland chapter

517
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: is honest about the fact that we think we could

518
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 1: be too low on them, and I think our Kansas

519
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: City chapter is pretty honest about the fact that, yeah,

520
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: we Kansas City is the best team in the a

521
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: f C and the steadiest team in football right now. Um,

522
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: because Patrick Mahomes is just so steady, was so good

523
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 1: and so steady. Yeah, so yeah, I mean the subjective things,

524
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: the things like chemistry and personalities and uh, you know

525
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: we account for that in our write ups. But the numbers, Like,

526
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you're a numbers guy, obviously, we I think

527
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: we told your story last time you were on here.

528
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: It's just it's tough for me, like watching some of

529
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 1: these teams and some of these players, like Josh Allen

530
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 1: makes this massive leap last year, right he I think

531
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 1: your numbers had him eleven increase in completion percentage. That's

532
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: almost unheard of. Can he keep this up? And then

533
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 1: you watch him and you're like, yeah he can. Stefon

534
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 1: Diggs is that good in this offense? And day Bowl

535
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: and so. But in reality you're like, man, I was

536
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: that a fluky year. We saw Josh Allen before that,

537
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: he was nothing like this. The most likely thing I

538
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 1: think is that it was little bit flukies. Okay, I

539
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: like give back a little bit of the gains, but

540
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 1: I agree with you, like he looks like it is

541
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,479
Speaker 1: absolutely for real. The problem now is that a lot

542
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: of people are going to feel like, oh, well, every

543
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: quarterback with a terrible completion percentage is improvable because Josh

544
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: Allen and I'd like to see it happen with a

545
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: couple of other guys before I suddenly believe that you

546
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: can go out and find these guys with strong arms

547
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: who have no accuracy and suddenly fixed the actors accuracy.

548
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: It's very likely that Alan is just a black Swan

549
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: kind of thing. Oh, nice usage of black Swan. Good book.

550
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 1: Bite to lef Uh, I will ask you said at

551
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: the outset the chargers, everybody's high on them. Everybody likes

552
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: the charges. In the Browns, the numbers say, pump the brakes,

553
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: Why about the chargers. So the funny thing is, I

554
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: think everybody is expecting a second year jump from Justin Herbert.

555
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: I went back and looked at he had one of

556
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: the best rookie quarterback years we've ever measured, going back

557
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: to eight three. If you look at the guys who

558
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: had like the twelve best key quarterback years on average,

559
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: the next year, they were actually worse. The fact is

560
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: that the most likely time for a quarterback to take

561
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: a jump forward is his second year. So I would

562
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: expect to jump forward from Joe Burrow and I would

563
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: expect to jump forward from two attago Baloa. But what

564
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,479
Speaker 1: a quarterback is already so good that he's above average

565
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: as a rookie. They don't tend to take a second

566
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: year lead because they've already kind of taken it, Like

567
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: this is already really good. He's really good. This is

568
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: where like the subjectivity comes in because you're like, Okay,

569
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: let's see who was his coach last year. Okay, oh,

570
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: maybe he got a massive upgrade at coach because we

571
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 1: know last year. I'm not gonna bashi as a designer

572
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: of offenses. I mean we we bash Anthony Lynn for

573
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: things like in game decision making and time management. I

574
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: don't think we bash him as a designer of offenses.

575
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: And Brandon Staley is not designing the offenses, right, it's

576
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: Lombardi true. But what about the fact of Anthony Lynn

577
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: wants to play servatively. Hey, maybe we're not gonna throw

578
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: as much on first down. We're gonna just play safe.

579
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: And like Anthony Lynn was not super aggressive, and when

580
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: he was aggressive, it seemed like it was always at

581
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: the wrong time. I don't it's kind of an uncertainty

582
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: with Staley, right, as as head coach, we don't know.

583
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: We have no idea what head coach he'll be. As

584
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: far as aggressiveness, what is the offense will look like

585
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: under Lombardi. As far as aggressiveness, we think he'll be

586
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: aggressive on fourth down. He seems to be analytics friendly.

587
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: It seems like it's an upgraded coach. But then that

588
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: gets into the other part of our feeling about the Chargers,

589
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: which is, I think a lot of people expect you

590
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: bring in Staley and suddenly you have the Rams defense

591
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: for last year, and the fact is that there see

592
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: the problem is we want to believe that coaches have

593
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 1: a huge impact, but there are very few coaches who

594
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: we see them with multiple teams enough that you have

595
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: a sample size that you can actually say the impact

596
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: is the coach and not the talent on the team.

597
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: The only guy who has been proven to like improve

598
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 1: defenses over and over and over and over again because

599
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 1: he's just had enough jobs to prove it is Wade Phillips. Oh, Staley,

600
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: we saw what he did with the Rams last year,

601
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 1: and that's fantastic, but we don't know if he can

602
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: do it again. And even if you believe he can

603
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: do it again, if he had similar talent. He doesn't

604
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: have similar talent. Is he doesn't have Aaron Donald, he

605
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: doesn't have Jalen Ramsey. Yes he has Bosa and he's

606
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: got Derwin James, but thought they played different positions. So

607
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: you can't structure the defense quite the same way as

608
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: he structured it with the Rams. He's taking a team

609
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: that played almost entirely single high last year, and now

610
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: he's gonna play too high all the time. How does

611
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: the talent fit in that way? Like, there's just too

612
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: many reasons to believe that the Chargers are likely to

613
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: take time to develop on defense. They're not all of

614
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 1: a sudden going to be a top tend defense. All right,

615
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: we'll wrap up with the team I like a lot.

616
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if others do. I have not read

617
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: the preview yet. In Football Outsiders, I have bet the

618
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division. We just got the

619
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: new is this week. You're laughing that, uh, because I

620
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 1: because I can totally make the case, make the case,

621
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: because I don't need to. You make you're the good one.

622
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: You're here. We have them third in their division in

623
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: the projections. But it's not a ridiculous scenario. First of all,

624
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: the projections don't include Carson Wentz's injury yet. Yeah, we

625
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: don't know. Have you heard anything we just heard indefinitely.

626
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 1: That could be two weeks, that could be six weeks,

627
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: it could be. What shocks me is the news from

628
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: today about he's gonna try to get fix it with rest.

629
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: Doesn't that always lead to guys getting the surgery anyway,

630
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: just three weeks later than they should have, and they

631
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: lost their left tackle to Costanzo keep being replaced by

632
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: Eric Fisher X from the Chiefs, but coming at the

633
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: Achilles last year. So I don't know whether he's going

634
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: to be healthy for Week one, and you guys killed

635
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 1: whence his stats in Philly were awful, just get exact fumbles,

636
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: holding the ball too long. So I don't like that matchup.

637
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: But I'm assuming you also like the Jags a little

638
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: because the rest of the division there will be regression

639
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: from ten and the Titans down. We have the Titans down.

640
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 1: The Houston is a garbage fire. There you go, here's

641
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: the other thing. So here's the story you can tell

642
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: about how it can happen with Jacksonville. I like them

643
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: given the current odds. I don't think they're gonna win

644
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: the division, but given the long odds that you get

645
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence could be the real deal as a rookie

646
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: right He's He's super promising. And a lot of these

647
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: college coaches, like Urban Meyer, they have success their first

648
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: year when they can just scheme things up before a

649
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 1: opponents have their stuff all on film and be before

650
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: it's clear they cannot run an NFL locker room. Like

651
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: I think of all of the coaches who come out

652
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: of college who struggled to run an NFL locker room,

653
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: but it didn't usually like with Chip Kelly, like it

654
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 1: didn't become apparent until later on, and he had huge

655
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: successes first year. I don't think the idea of Jacksonville

656
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: as a surprise division title is not It's not ridiculous

657
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: at all. So there is some data saying the first

658
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: year college coaches come in they can have success, but

659
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: after that it peters out. You you can see a

660
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: pattern if you look at a lot of them, you

661
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: see a pattern. Nick Saban, I think, was similar, Oh wow,

662
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 1: that's good, Bob Bullish on Jacksonville. You can get them

663
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: like plus nine hundred to win the division. Yeah, I mean,

664
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 1: I mean I'm not again, Like, if you ask me

665
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: who's gonna win the division now after for the cold's

666
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: injury or whatever, I would say Tennessee. But if you

667
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,959
Speaker 1: say you can get plus nine hundred on it, yeah,

668
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: oh yeah, yeah, okay, hes Aaron Chatz. Um, Football Outsiders,

669
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 1: you gotta go get it, you gotta pick it up. Um,

670
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 1: it's worth the price of admission. Definitely will help you

671
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: with your football knowledge. Um. Do what else you got

672
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: cooking here? Before the season. You're gonna be doing a

673
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 1: big media tour. Yeah, We've done a lot of media

674
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 1: podcasts like this one. Uh, the Football Outsiders Almanac. You

675
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: can get the print copy on Amazon or the electronic

676
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,359
Speaker 1: copy you get by becoming an FO plus subscriber. FO

677
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 1: plus is our premium service, and we actually have a

678
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: ton of good stuff coming on FO plus. We have

679
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: our Fantasy Projection tool to uh you can fit to

680
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: the rules of your league in the preseason. We have

681
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 1: weekly projections during the season. We have a bunch of

682
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: new fantasy tools that are going to be part of

683
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: FO plus. So there's a lot of stuff that's available.

684
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 1: If you go to Football Outsiders dot com and check

685
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 1: out fo Plus, it's not just the almanac. You get

686
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: it all as part of one package, and if you

687
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: think about it, it's not expensive. And you span it

688
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: over what a four month season and the amount of

689
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: money you're gambling and putting in fantasy, it's it's well

690
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: worth the prices. I I love it. It's great stuff. Aaron,

691
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: thanks a lot. Yeah, hey, man, enjoy your August and uh,

692
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: enjoy the season. I can't wait. I'm fired up. Yeah,

693
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: hit me up. During the season. We'll talk about where

694
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: things are awesome. Wrong about Cleveland, I may be right.

695
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: I maybe maybe we're both right about Shacksonville. That would

696
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 1: be lovely. I would hope you're also wrong about the Jets,

697
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 1: but we'll close out on that, all right, Man, Thanks

698
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 1: a lot, and I'll talk to you soon. Alright, talk

699
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: to you later, manh