WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Abby Joseph Cohen

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>An extraordinary set of days. This is a single best

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<v Speaker 2>idea with two of what could be fourteen vignettes today.

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<v Speaker 2>Abby Joseph Cohen was at Goldman Sachs and developed so

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<v Speaker 2>much for the CFA Institute. Full disclosure, I'm a member.

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<v Speaker 2>She's now teaching at Columbia Business School. And to have

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<v Speaker 2>Jean Beauvain of Canada and Blackrock with us, to have

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<v Speaker 2>Carl Weinberg of high frequency economics and all he did

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<v Speaker 2>at Lehman over the years, Barbara Reinhart Avoya, and on

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<v Speaker 2>and on. I thought David Gerrow was fascinating about what

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<v Speaker 2>we would see tonight at the Joint Session of Congress.

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<v Speaker 2>But Abby Joseph Cohen was piercing in her critique. I

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<v Speaker 2>alluded to what Kevin Gordon of SCHWAB said, which is, well,

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<v Speaker 2>this gets a back to the nineteen forties. Many people

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<v Speaker 2>will say to the nineteen thirties. Abby Joseph Cohen disagrees.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not going back to the nineteen thirties. It's going

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<v Speaker 3>back to the nineteenth century. Tariff based economy is something

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<v Speaker 3>that didn't work then didn't work in the nineteen thirties,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think it's very dangerous. You know, you have

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<v Speaker 3>had other guests on who have talked about quantifying the impact,

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<v Speaker 3>which will be very substantial if in fact these tariffs hold.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's not just the US tariffs on our best

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<v Speaker 3>neighbors and best trading partners, but also what they decide

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<v Speaker 3>to do. I'll use the word to reciprocate, but this

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<v Speaker 3>is a very difficult situation. Obviously. The thing that is

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<v Speaker 3>somewhat odd about this and different from what was seen

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<v Speaker 3>in previous periods of history, is these are tariffs being

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<v Speaker 3>levy on our friends, and the blowback, the damage economically

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<v Speaker 3>can actually be extremely severe on our own economy, even

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<v Speaker 3>without the so called pushback and reciprocal nature.

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<v Speaker 2>Just some of the data that we try to dig

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<v Speaker 2>up today, little anecdotal like Nebraska, what does Nebraska do

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<v Speaker 2>with China? It's overwhelming. The China business that Lincoln, Nebraska

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<v Speaker 2>over to Coosad and onto Carne and what they do,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just absolutely overwhelming. I learned a lot ready for this, folks,

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<v Speaker 2>It's not chicken feet, They're called chicken paws. I guess

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<v Speaker 2>that sounds better or whatever. The business in American chicken

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<v Speaker 2>feet going abroad. My fancy word is ginormous. All these

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<v Speaker 2>little things that all of a sudden are under threat.

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<v Speaker 2>Just interesting seeing of course we picked up on a

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<v Speaker 2>gilded age idea there with the abbey. We then spoke

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<v Speaker 2>to Abby Joseph Cohen about any things, including the resiliency

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<v Speaker 2>to be in the markets. We heard that from Barbara

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<v Speaker 2>Reinherd Atvoya as well. I thought Jay Bowen and Bowen

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<v Speaker 2>Haines Florida was just brilliant. Basically said shut up and

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<v Speaker 2>buy as the way I would put it. But there's

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't enough talk about the FED. Here's Abby Joseph Cohen

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<v Speaker 2>and the FED in Jerome Powell.

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<v Speaker 3>Mister Powell and the other members of the FOMC need

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<v Speaker 3>to be doing what they have been doing, and that

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<v Speaker 3>is to focus on the data and to keep in

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<v Speaker 3>mind the dual mandate of inflation but also employment. And

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<v Speaker 3>one of the things that has been terrific throughout the

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<v Speaker 3>Biden administration has been this ongoing creation of jobs and

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<v Speaker 3>then the increase in the average wage adjusted for inflation

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<v Speaker 3>for the America American family. They will be watching at

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<v Speaker 3>the FED whether that good news continues. If we see

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<v Speaker 3>in erosion in the labor markets. If we see an

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<v Speaker 3>erosion in wages adjusted for inflation, I think at that

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<v Speaker 3>point they're going to need to adjust the policy and

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<v Speaker 3>provide some stimulus to basically offset some of these policy

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<v Speaker 3>decisions coming out of the White House.

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<v Speaker 2>Emma Joseph Cohen, the Columbia Business School. We will continue

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<v Speaker 2>to work on the set of stories now as a

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<v Speaker 2>president speaks tonight. The Joint Session, of course, will be

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<v Speaker 2>with you tomorrow to pick up the pieces. On your

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<v Speaker 2>commute across the nation on Applecarplay, Android Auto, Good Morning

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<v Speaker 2>from ninety two NINEFM Boston to nine point one in Washington.

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<v Speaker 2>On YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts and I must say

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<v Speaker 2>good evening to all listening in India on YouTube podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>This is single best idea seven