1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,119 Speaker 2: An extraordinary set of days. This is a single best 3 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 2: idea with two of what could be fourteen vignettes today. 4 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,319 Speaker 2: Abby Joseph Cohen was at Goldman Sachs and developed so 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 2: much for the CFA Institute. Full disclosure, I'm a member. 6 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 2: She's now teaching at Columbia Business School. And to have 7 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: Jean Beauvain of Canada and Blackrock with us, to have 8 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: Carl Weinberg of high frequency economics and all he did 9 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: at Lehman over the years, Barbara Reinhart Avoya, and on 10 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 2: and on. I thought David Gerrow was fascinating about what 11 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: we would see tonight at the Joint Session of Congress. 12 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: But Abby Joseph Cohen was piercing in her critique. I 13 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: alluded to what Kevin Gordon of SCHWAB said, which is, well, 14 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: this gets a back to the nineteen forties. Many people 15 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 2: will say to the nineteen thirties. Abby Joseph Cohen disagrees. 16 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 3: It's not going back to the nineteen thirties. It's going 17 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 3: back to the nineteenth century. Tariff based economy is something 18 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 3: that didn't work then didn't work in the nineteen thirties, 19 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 3: and I think it's very dangerous. You know, you have 20 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 3: had other guests on who have talked about quantifying the impact, 21 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 3: which will be very substantial if in fact these tariffs hold. 22 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 3: And it's not just the US tariffs on our best 23 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 3: neighbors and best trading partners, but also what they decide 24 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 3: to do. I'll use the word to reciprocate, but this 25 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 3: is a very difficult situation. Obviously. The thing that is 26 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: somewhat odd about this and different from what was seen 27 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 3: in previous periods of history, is these are tariffs being 28 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 3: levy on our friends, and the blowback, the damage economically 29 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 3: can actually be extremely severe on our own economy, even 30 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 3: without the so called pushback and reciprocal nature. 31 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 2: Just some of the data that we try to dig 32 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 2: up today, little anecdotal like Nebraska, what does Nebraska do 33 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 2: with China? It's overwhelming. The China business that Lincoln, Nebraska 34 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,119 Speaker 2: over to Coosad and onto Carne and what they do, 35 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 2: it's just absolutely overwhelming. I learned a lot ready for this, folks, 36 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 2: It's not chicken feet, They're called chicken paws. I guess 37 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 2: that sounds better or whatever. The business in American chicken 38 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: feet going abroad. My fancy word is ginormous. All these 39 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: little things that all of a sudden are under threat. 40 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 2: Just interesting seeing of course we picked up on a 41 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 2: gilded age idea there with the abbey. We then spoke 42 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: to Abby Joseph Cohen about any things, including the resiliency 43 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: to be in the markets. We heard that from Barbara 44 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 2: Reinherd Atvoya as well. I thought Jay Bowen and Bowen 45 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 2: Haines Florida was just brilliant. Basically said shut up and 46 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: buy as the way I would put it. But there's 47 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 2: wasn't enough talk about the FED. Here's Abby Joseph Cohen 48 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: and the FED in Jerome Powell. 49 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 3: Mister Powell and the other members of the FOMC need 50 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 3: to be doing what they have been doing, and that 51 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 3: is to focus on the data and to keep in 52 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 3: mind the dual mandate of inflation but also employment. And 53 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 3: one of the things that has been terrific throughout the 54 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 3: Biden administration has been this ongoing creation of jobs and 55 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 3: then the increase in the average wage adjusted for inflation 56 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 3: for the America American family. They will be watching at 57 00:03:56,320 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 3: the FED whether that good news continues. If we see 58 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 3: in erosion in the labor markets. If we see an 59 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 3: erosion in wages adjusted for inflation, I think at that 60 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 3: point they're going to need to adjust the policy and 61 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: provide some stimulus to basically offset some of these policy 62 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 3: decisions coming out of the White House. 63 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 2: Emma Joseph Cohen, the Columbia Business School. We will continue 64 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 2: to work on the set of stories now as a 65 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 2: president speaks tonight. The Joint Session, of course, will be 66 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 2: with you tomorrow to pick up the pieces. On your 67 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,559 Speaker 2: commute across the nation on Applecarplay, Android Auto, Good Morning 68 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 2: on Serious XM channel one twenty one across the corridor 69 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 2: from ninety two NINEFM Boston to nine point one in Washington. 70 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 2: On YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts and I must say 71 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 2: good evening to all listening in India on YouTube podcast. 72 00:04:53,040 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 2: This is single best idea seven