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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are a part of the Volume

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Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I'm Chadmulman of the Action Network. I'm live

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Speaker 1: from my Tommy John Holmes Studio and them I'm joined

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Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Mike Campadre my BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter l.

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Speaker 2: O Simon Chad.

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Speaker 3: How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Optimistic? Confidence, clear eyed? My heart is full. We cannot

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Speaker 1: lose my brother. We can't not lose.

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Speaker 2: That's how I feel. How do you feel?

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Speaker 3: It's my favorite time of year. It's like you got

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Speaker 3: one foot into you know, the best football of the year,

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Speaker 3: and the other foot is off season mode already, all

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Speaker 3: the drama, all the conversation, and I just love this

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Speaker 3: time of here where it's like even if you're a

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Speaker 3: team's a loser and you're out, there's still drama, still

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Speaker 3: something to care about with your team because there's all

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Speaker 3: the coaching change everything like that. And on the flip side,

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Speaker 3: we talked about this is the best weekend of football,

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Speaker 3: right this is our last weekend of at least four

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Speaker 3: games on Saturday. We got two on Saturday, two Sunday,

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Speaker 3: and I try to enjoy it because I know, and

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Speaker 3: you know, it's almost over. Baby, This is done. What's

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Speaker 3: the end? So try to enjoy it.

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Speaker 1: It's my last weekend of telling my wife I have

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Speaker 1: to work on Saturday night, so I know I cannot

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Speaker 1: go out to dinner with XYZ couple because I have

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Speaker 1: to work on Saturday night. Today is our NFL Divisional

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Speaker 1: Best Bets episode, as we did last week, will not

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Speaker 1: only be we will not only be reviewing the sides

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Speaker 1: for this weekend's games. We are adding any other bets

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Speaker 1: we like as well that will hopefully give folks more

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Speaker 1: to look for root forward think about this weekend.

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Speaker 2: We will also be including those bets.

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Speaker 1: As options for our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big.

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Speaker 2: Balls Bet of the Week.

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Speaker 1: We will of course discuss Simon's Biggest Bets, play Scoot Roulette,

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Speaker 1: all that Jazz Sunday night. We normally do our shows

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night around seven thirty. Because the Bills Ravens

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Speaker 1: game starts at six point thirty, we are gonna go

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Speaker 1: live after that game.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be a late night for me.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna need to have a an afternoon espresso to

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Speaker 1: be able to do that show. We're gonna go after

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Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Bills game finishes, and that should

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Speaker 1: be great because we're gonna have a lot of stuff

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Speaker 1: tied to that game, as you're about to find out. Plus,

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Speaker 1: you know, Matt Mitchell lives and dies with the Buffalo Bills,

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Speaker 1: so it could be super exciting to have to make

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Speaker 1: him record a podcast one way or the other.

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Speaker 3: This sucks and it's horseshit, but I'm too polite to

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Speaker 3: say anything because I'm a class act.

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Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, decisions need to

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Speaker 1: be made. As a volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard like

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Speaker 1: to say, there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: be generationally wealthy.

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Speaker 2: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 2: three six five and now new Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to

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Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props.

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Speaker 2: Futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.

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Speaker 1: At bet three sixty five must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off.

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Speaker 2: In Iowa terms.

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Speaker 1: Conditions restrictions apply all right, as always on Thursdays during

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Speaker 1: the season, we like to hear how the wise guys

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Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are very influential.

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Speaker 1: Lines move based in our conversation. Feel compelled to check

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Speaker 1: in and tell us what they're thinking.

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Speaker 2: Simon, let's do. Chuck calls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range, somebody

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Speaker 3: saying maybe.

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Speaker 1: What you do?

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Speaker 3: Man? Yeah? Pretty interesting week, obvious because it's only four games,

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Speaker 3: so there's gonna be a lot of you know, back

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Speaker 3: and forth on guys where they're on different sides, and

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Speaker 3: obviously the most contagious, you know, argumentative back and forth game.

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Speaker 3: Ravens bills, So there's no doubt. Got a ton of

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Speaker 3: pushback on that one.

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Speaker 2: You know, you push back on you liking the bills.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, guys are just like us where they dive in

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Speaker 3: the numbers and they see that basically when you boil

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Speaker 3: it down to it, every trend, just about every number

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Speaker 3: on the field is going to back this Ravens team

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Speaker 3: for a good reason. Like we already talked about, We're

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Speaker 3: gonna talk about some more. You know, that was definitely

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Speaker 3: in the main call I got about you think they

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Speaker 3: think I'm doing too much emotion here, not going with

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Speaker 3: the numbers, not trust the numbers, And yeah, that's something

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Speaker 3: again we'll talk about. I don't want to give too

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Speaker 3: much away, but yeah, I just thought that was interesting

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Speaker 3: that I thought that was gonna be a more public side.

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Speaker 3: They're Ravens, but there are some really smart professional money

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Speaker 3: on that side. But you saw there's just as much

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Speaker 3: smart money on the bills side keeping this number where

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Speaker 3: it's at right, Like a couple offshore books touched two,

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Speaker 3: immediately took heavy money, went right back down to one

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Speaker 3: and a half. And we've seen here, I don't know

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Speaker 3: if you've seen in Connecticut, in New Jersey. No book

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Speaker 3: has touched two on the bills. Every book has been

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Speaker 3: one and a.

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Speaker 1: Half in fact, and let's let's let's save that because

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Speaker 1: it's that is the end of the show.

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Speaker 2: It's the marquee game.

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Speaker 1: It's at one at most books, so it's come down

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Speaker 1: from the one and a half, like the money is

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Speaker 1: coming back on the bills.

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Speaker 2: So that is outstanding.

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Speaker 3: Well, I just thought it was interesting conversation with guys,

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Speaker 3: just because I did think it would be a pros

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Speaker 3: versus jows type of game. And it's like, no, this

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Speaker 3: Ravens team, and you do dive into the numbers, you

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Speaker 3: do look at the matchup. There are guys who are

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Speaker 3: just like, no, I'm trusting the trends here, trusting Lamar

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Speaker 3: in this night game. But yeah, I can't wait to

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Speaker 3: break that one down even more a game. And you

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Speaker 3: love we already knew the professionals on either side of it.

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Speaker 3: This Detroit.

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Speaker 2: Oh.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if Chad loves it, but I love

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Speaker 3: Commanders Detroit Lions. This is another professional side. A lot

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Speaker 3: of the pros love the Lions, but there's a decent

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Speaker 3: amount of us that are crazy, crazy crazy about this

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Speaker 3: Washington team and throwing money on the Washington money line.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna pull off the upset. I just

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Speaker 3: I can't get over how they match up with this

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Speaker 3: team and the fact that, yes, the Lions are gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to maybe make them one sided take away

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Speaker 3: the run option. That's what I honestly want. I want

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Speaker 3: Jennie Daniels to have the ball in his hands at

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Speaker 3: all times. I just think this is the type of

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Speaker 3: game that we could finally see him break off fifty

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Speaker 3: to sixty runs in this game where it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: him picking up a ton of yards with his own legs.

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Speaker 3: So that was another game that was really interesting to

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Speaker 3: me that, you know, I couldn't believe there's pros out

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Speaker 3: there still taking the nine and a half on this

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Speaker 3: Lions team. And it is just they love this team,

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Speaker 3: They respect this offense, and they think which most people,

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Speaker 3: I think professionally think that the injuries to this defense

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Speaker 3: has been overrated a little bit. I just think they've

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Speaker 3: been lucky with their competition. Now they're about to face

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Speaker 3: a legit offense, and we've seen when they played legit

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Speaker 3: offenses they move the ball against them and then defense,

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Speaker 3: So that's another one obviously that's split. I don't know

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Speaker 3: where you're at with your Eagles love. I'm holding Sean

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Speaker 3: with it. I mean, I might have talked to a

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Speaker 3: handful of pros that are like, well, I like the Rams,

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Speaker 3: but I like them at six and a half and

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Speaker 3: now I'm not going to bet it. So this to

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Speaker 3: me seems like the very public professional side with the

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Speaker 3: pros and the public are lining up on this Eagles team.

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Speaker 3: And the more if we get on the weather, the

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Speaker 3: more it makes sense to me that it's becoming a

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Speaker 3: really pro public side with this Eagles team. Because everyone

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Speaker 3: knows that the LA is a Dome team. Now they're

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Speaker 3: coming out coming out East on a short week, So

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Speaker 3: that was definitely a game I thought we would get

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Speaker 3: pushed back on. Basically none chet We're basically aligned with

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Speaker 3: a lot of professionals on this Eagle side, and yeah

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Speaker 3: for a game that not that it's left for dead,

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Speaker 3: but it just seems like no one really cares about it.

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Speaker 3: It's it feels like, you know, pros are betting Houston

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Speaker 3: Texans here, and it's really just about what we always

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Speaker 3: talk about. The models are gonna favor Houston here because

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Speaker 3: it's such a big number and it's my homes as

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Speaker 3: a big favorite, which historically does not cover. But it's

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Speaker 3: not like guys banging the table for this Houston team.

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Speaker 3: I think everyone's just scared, you know, going against the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs in the playoffs. So like we said, I think

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Speaker 3: most guys agree with if this is regular season, of

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Speaker 3: course you would bet Houston here. This is a great number.

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Speaker 3: This is a nice spot, especially with the way their

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Speaker 3: defense matches up. They're great to stop in the run.

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Speaker 3: That's we know the chief the Chiefs, that's what they

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Speaker 3: want to do here. But yeah, no one, no one

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Speaker 3: planting their flag on this Houston team. So that that

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Speaker 3: might be the one blind spot for me this week

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Speaker 3: is I am really not really giving any respect the

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Speaker 3: Houston at all. I think this is such a Chief

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Speaker 3: spot and the fact that no professions really digging their

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Speaker 3: feet in on this Houston side makes me even more

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Speaker 3: confident where it's like, no, this does feel like the

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Speaker 3: game where we see timetime again, right the one seed

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Speaker 3: tends to roll the four seed or where the five

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Speaker 3: seed whoever gets into the come play this matchup. I

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Speaker 3: don't really feel that way with Detroit with the Chiefs here,

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Speaker 3: like we talked about now the Chiefs are fully healthy,

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Speaker 3: well arrested, this does feel like a spot the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: are going to roll. So yeah, pretty interesting. The only

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Speaker 3: pushback we had we're all sides. We talked totals, heard

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Speaker 3: nothing about our love for the totals. That basically everyone

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Speaker 3: I talked to who loves the unders as well. This week,

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Speaker 3: obviously we're on the highest over. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: you've come around on that one as well, Chad, But

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Speaker 3: no guys were calling up saying you're a psycho for

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Speaker 3: betting this over of the fifty five. None of that.

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Speaker 3: Becuys were like, no, I see it, like this could

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Speaker 3: easily be a shootout. And Evan had an amazing trend

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Speaker 3: and basic getting his article about these high totals outdoors,

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Speaker 3: we pick the under indoors that's when they do go over.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's nice to see the trends back up

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Speaker 3: my love for this over, because I I do think

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Speaker 3: you're getting still a point and a half of value

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Speaker 3: here on this total for this line's Commanders game.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. That first one up

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Texans. That line is settled in

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Speaker 1: at eight and a half since we last both. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we are in the foxhol on the Chiefs. I like,

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Speaker 1: I haven't bet the side on this game yet. I

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Speaker 1: definitely lean Chiefs. I did bet the teaser. I did

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Speaker 1: bet the Chiefs. I moved it down to two and

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Speaker 1: a half and I moved the Bills up to seven

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Speaker 1: and a half so you can see it in the app.

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Speaker 1: I've got a teaser on the Bills at minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half, Bills plus seven and a half, Chiefs

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half, And like, I still want

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Speaker 1: to bet the Chiefs here. I'm not buying the Texans.

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Speaker 1: I'm not buying that they're all of a sudden fixed.

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Speaker 1: I know their defense is good. What's kept me from

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Speaker 1: going all in has been a couple of trend ends

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Speaker 1: of favorites with Mahomes as more than seven. Right, Obviously,

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Speaker 1: we've talked about this forever. In his career, forty one

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Speaker 1: percent against the spread as a favorite of more than seven,

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Speaker 1: five and one this season as a spread of more

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Speaker 1: than seven. Since twenty twenty, thirty six percent as a

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Speaker 1: seven plus point favorite, worst mark of any QB in

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Speaker 1: the NFL.

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Speaker 2: However, it's going.

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Speaker 1: To be cold twenty degrees Dome teams playing outside fair poorly.

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Speaker 1: And then this this is where like I want your

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Speaker 1: take on this, because the trends get really interesting.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: So mahomes overall as a seven point favorite, as I said,

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Speaker 1: twenty two to thirty two and three is a seven

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Speaker 1: point favorite when the weather is under forty degrees ten

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Speaker 1: six and one. So what that says to me is

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Speaker 1: just shy. A fifty percent of his covers as a

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Speaker 1: seven point favorite come when the weather is below forty degrees. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: we've been tracking these things for four or five days now.

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Speaker 1: I've been trying to find like the numbers that back

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Speaker 1: up my suspicion. And when we get this deluge of

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Speaker 1: data which we get, this, to me feels like either

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for confirmation bias or it's confirming my bias

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Speaker 1: in the way that I want it to.

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Speaker 2: Does that make sense?

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Speaker 1: Like it that's the number I was looking for to

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Speaker 1: make me feel better about betting the Chiefs. It feels

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Speaker 1: like it threads the needle sort of.

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Speaker 2: The then diagram of these things.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know a little bit about what you

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Speaker 3: just talked about that we were trying to, like you

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Speaker 3: just said, we're trying to find reasons to back the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: not reasons to fade them here. So that's definitely an

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Speaker 3: issue going into this one. I agree with you on

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Speaker 3: that where it's like I'm trying to be open minded here,

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Speaker 3: but I know that in my gut, in my heart,

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Speaker 3: I want to be on this Chiefs team. And I

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Speaker 3: think it's what you just talked about there. It's like

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Speaker 3: we've already been here before. We know this exact scenario.

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Speaker 3: And like we said, regular season, we rode that streak,

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Speaker 3: We faded Mahomes every time. He was a big favorite

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Speaker 3: basically this year, and I didn't realize he was oh

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Speaker 3: five to one. That's pretty shocking, Evan. So yeah, that's

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Speaker 3: pretty telling that, you know. It's just it's different, right,

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Speaker 3: the public overreacts over rates Mahomes during the regular season.

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Speaker 3: That was without all of his weapons, too, right, that

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Speaker 3: was without all the guys we've talked about coming back

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Speaker 3: to this point, and yeah, to me, we do respect

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Speaker 3: how great this Huston's defense is and what they've done

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Speaker 3: this season, but this is the type of scenario where

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Speaker 3: it's like you have to factor in who they have played, right,

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Speaker 3: who is in their division, how some of their games

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Speaker 3: have gone when you go back and look at certain

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Speaker 3: games they have, Like you know, I think back to

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Speaker 3: that Green Bay game they played right when that was outdoors,

285
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Speaker 3: not even that cold, right, but their defense couldn't stop

286
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Speaker 3: the Green Bay offense. Like there's a couple of things

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Speaker 3: like that where yes, in the right setting, the right environment,

288
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Speaker 3: their defense is really dominant, but in a setting like this,

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Speaker 3: I just can't see it. And I know that. You know,

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Speaker 3: the strength of Houston right now is the run defense,

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Speaker 3: Like that is their absolute strength. It's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: strength on strength because that's what the Chiefs do. Like

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Speaker 3: second half, they just lean into that run game. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: this Houston team, I think they're just gonna wilt against

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Speaker 3: that type of front. And even if they do try

296
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Speaker 3: to stack the box and take away the run, Mahome

297
00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,440
Speaker 3: is gonna kill you. The guy has seen it all.

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Speaker 3: This is the exact moment he lives for. This is

299
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Speaker 3: Andy Reid scheming up those perfect play calls in this

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Speaker 3: exact scenario. So yeah, my confidence, just like you, has

301
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Speaker 3: not waivered, just a great spot. Like you said, if

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Speaker 3: you're scared off by this big number, it's the perfect

303
00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 3: number to tease, like they're giving you the teas here

304
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Speaker 3: like taking it down to two and a half. If

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Speaker 3: you don't like the Bills, throw the Eagles in there.

306
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Speaker 3: You're taking the Eagles basically down just to win outright,

307
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Speaker 3: That's going to be a nice spot to be in.

308
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Speaker 3: So I'm right right there with you. I'm not scared

309
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Speaker 3: off by this number. You know, the total obviously, we

310
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Speaker 3: talked about it. That's the only fear for me is

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Speaker 3: we might have missed the key number in the value.

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Speaker 1: I think it's too I think it's too low now.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't play the total at the number it's at now.

314
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Speaker 1: It was higher a few days ago. I think you

315
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Speaker 1: missed it. It's under forty two now, just like.

316
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Speaker 3: I would still play because I do think it's going

317
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 3: to keep coming downchat because we just talked about the weather,

318
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Speaker 3: like if this is going to be freezing cold and

319
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,960
Speaker 3: even a little bit of chance of snow, I could

320
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Speaker 3: see the public finally joining us on the under because

321
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,240
Speaker 3: right now, the public right now is still in the

322
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Speaker 3: over because they're viewing it the same way. It's like

323
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Speaker 3: this the lowest total that you can get with mahomes

324
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Speaker 3: and you know CJ has big plays. That's what CJ does.

325
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 3: He makes big plays that could ruin totals like this

326
00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,200
Speaker 3: for going over. So I get why the early money

327
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:58,720
Speaker 3: right now from the public is on the over. But

328
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Speaker 3: I think it's be a closer and it's gonna be

329
00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,520
Speaker 3: all weather talk, but we're about to get into it.

330
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Speaker 3: It's this is going to be a week dictated by

331
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Speaker 3: the weather in many ways, and this feels a good

332
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:08,640
Speaker 3: type of game the exact same way where it's like,

333
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,120
Speaker 3: you know, when people do wake up Saturday morning, they

334
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 3: see that it's going to be say ten degrees or

335
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 3: fifteen degrees that kickoff, or the chance of snow in

336
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 3: this matchup. I just think it's going to become pouring

337
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 3: in on the under. So I still don't hate it.

338
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 3: If you want to take it under forty one and

339
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 3: a half, I just I put it out there, like

340
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,400
Speaker 3: I have this at forty one. There's only half point

341
00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,360
Speaker 3: of value here. It's not crazy amount of value that

342
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 3: I'm making you guys run to the window to bet

343
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 3: this right now. But to me, there's still is value

344
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 3: on it. But I get where Chat's coming from. It's like,

345
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 3: if you feel like you missed it, you could roll

346
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,200
Speaker 3: the dice and hope for an opening drive touchdown and

347
00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,560
Speaker 3: then you take it live, take the underlive. So that's

348
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 3: always the way you can play these type of games.

349
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 1: I love doing that, and we've talked about that a

350
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:53,000
Speaker 1: lot this season. You know, the other day, I forget

351
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 1: which game it were, I think it was the Broncos Bills.

352
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 1: After that first touchdown, the total up to fifty three,

353
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 1: and it was originally it closed it like I think

354
00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,600
Speaker 1: a half eight, and so you were all of a

355
00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 1: sudden getting five more points. And we see this all

356
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,600
Speaker 1: the time, especially with these island games for lack of

357
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 1: a better term, where there's nobody else where. Everyone's watching

358
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:22,199
Speaker 1: these one game, this one game primetime games Thursday night,

359
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,200
Speaker 1: Monday night, Sunday night.

360
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:24,960
Speaker 2: When there is a touchdown on the.

361
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,960
Speaker 1: First drive or early on in the game, the total spikes,

362
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 1: and every single time you see like these teams settle

363
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,800
Speaker 1: in even if there's a touchdown or score right after.

364
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 1: We saw with Buffalo and Denver this past weekend, like

365
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,159
Speaker 1: it immediately you can get a really.

366
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 2: High number live. So I think that's a good idea.

367
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,679
Speaker 1: I just think there's so many options on this game,

368
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,240
Speaker 1: why do you want to waste it on a number

369
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,119
Speaker 1: that you don't feel that confident about.

370
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 2: I do want to pull in.

371
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 1: When I was listening to the Action Network pod, I

372
00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,919
Speaker 1: listen to Stucky in Raybam Ray went all in or

373
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 1: like Dalton Schultz over three and a half receptions a lot.

374
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 1: If you're afraid to play the Chiefs because you don't

375
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,000
Speaker 1: like the number, that's a good way to play the

376
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,760
Speaker 1: Chiefs without having to play the number. Because the one

377
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 1: thing the Chiefs aren't great at is defending the middle

378
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 1: of the field. They focus so much on the outside

379
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 1: receivers and tight ends historically have a lot of success

380
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs.

381
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 2: And if you expect the Chiefs to.

382
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 1: Be winning, the Texans are going to have to be

383
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 1: throwing the ball and Dalton shoots. Dalton Schultz will likely

384
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 1: have a lot of opportunities to make some receptions. I

385
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:35,880
Speaker 1: don't know if you have a strong feeling on that.

386
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 3: I love it. I mean, there's tons of angles you

387
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 3: can play in this game. Again, we focus mainly here

388
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 3: on just totals and sides, but you know, second half

389
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 3: unders under any Reid and Mahomes, it's a cash cow.

390
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 3: Like I love betting the second half unders, and we

391
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 3: talk about all the time. It's because they basically just

392
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,160
Speaker 3: ball control, maybe give the other team two to three

393
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 3: possessions total in the second half because they just hold

394
00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 3: onto it, run it down the throat, and just basically

395
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 3: take the wind out other sales. And we've seen it

396
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 3: time and time again air ahead unders like that's another

397
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 3: reason I love this under. It's just a great, great,

398
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,639
Speaker 3: great spot to play because public use perceives as Chiefs

399
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 3: the highest current offense, where that's just not who they've

400
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 3: been these last couple of years. So that's another sneaky play.

401
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 3: If it's you know, say it is a fluky first half,

402
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 3: right it's twenty one fourteen Chiefs or twenty fourteen Chiefs,

403
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,639
Speaker 3: you have to play that second half under. It's a

404
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 3: guarantee it's going to come through if it's that high

405
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 3: score or a first half. So that's my another play

406
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 3: of this where it's like, if you don't want to

407
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 3: bet anything here, definitely lean to that second half under.

408
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 3: With this Chiefs team, they're just time and time again

409
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 3: it's been cashing because it's just who they are. They're

410
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 3: just a team that leans into the run the second half.

411
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:51,280
Speaker 1: Washington plus nine and a half at Detroit total fifty

412
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 1: five and a half. This was Simon says, you like

413
00:19:54,520 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 1: the over a lot. I offer this from Evan, and

414
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: I say this with love because I am with you

415
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 1: on the over. I haven't bet it yet because I

416
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: think it's I think the total is going to come

417
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 1: down a little bit. I keep seeing juice it's directionally

418
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:18,679
Speaker 1: towards fifty five. In playoff games between number one and

419
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:24,920
Speaker 1: number six seeds, the under is eighty percent twenty four

420
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: games sample size over the past twenty years.

421
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: I still like the over.

422
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 1: I think there's one of those games where they might

423
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 1: start slow and there might be fifty points.

424
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 2: Scored in the fourth quarter.

425
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 1: I think when these defense are a little bit gassed,

426
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 1: when the offenses have figured out how to scheme against

427
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 1: these defenses that are not very good and don't have

428
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: great personnel. With the offenses that they have and the

429
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,679
Speaker 1: weapons they have on offense, the second half of this

430
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: game is going to be just pinball.

431
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 2: It's going to be amazing. That's my take on it.

432
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's an over. I'm betting knowing that it's

433
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 3: gonna come down to a handful of fourth down plays

434
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 3: Like these two coaches don't shy away from who they are,

435
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 3: and we've seen a time in to them. Again, like

436
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 3: the Lions games that do go under, it's when they

437
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 3: do struggle and fourth down a golf turns a bowl

438
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 3: over a lot. And you know, as much as you

439
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,439
Speaker 3: like to bash their defense and those games were golf struggles.

440
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 3: This season, their defense has stepped up. So I do

441
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: get where your hesitation comes from this over. I mean

442
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 3: it's an insanely high total. It's fifty five and a half,

443
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 3: So I totally get you're coming from on that one.

444
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 3: But yeah, when I when I go through the matchups,

445
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 3: I still think, you know, as good as Washington's defense

446
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 3: did make stops against the Bucks, you said it right,

447
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: there was there was a plenty of opportunity there for

448
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 3: the Bucks. Just the role this Washington team, especially offensively

449
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 3: and on the flip side, as well as Jane Daniels

450
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 3: played right the zero pun zero turnovers, I don't think

451
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,199
Speaker 3: that was that great by him. Like there were a

452
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 3: couple of throws he did miss, a couple of guys

453
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 3: he did have open and it's like, I just think

454
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: he needed to get that first playoff game under his belt.

455
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 3: Like I do think he'll be more confident, relaxed than

456
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: this and just knowing that this speed is different, like

457
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,439
Speaker 3: people say it all the time, playoff speed is different.

458
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: You have to play it to really get it. And

459
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 3: I think he did. You know, even talking after the game,

460
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 3: Jeniel Dan has talked about that where it's like he

461
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 3: gets it. Where people say it's different than the playoffs.

462
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 3: It is like every guy plays if it's their last snap.

463
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 3: They are just so desperate to get to where they

464
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 3: they're going, and that's the super Bowl, and it's like

465
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 3: everyone knows, right, you put in a year of work

466
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 3: for this exact one game opportunity. Everyone's gonna be going

467
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,120
Speaker 3: super hard. No plays off And like you just said,

468
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 3: I think this once again favors a high scoring game

469
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 3: the second half, where even if it's low scoring in

470
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 3: the first half, it could end up being a tract

471
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,479
Speaker 3: me just because these offenses both are so explosive. They

472
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 3: both have weapons that can at any point take the

473
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 3: ball all the way downfield and score. And yeah, this

474
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 3: this game, I like we talked on sharp clause, I

475
00:22:58,200 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 3: was just shocked to know that there were so many

476
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: professionals was coming in on this line side. I just

477
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 3: we've seen historically it's just rare that both favorites, big

478
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 3: favorites like them and the Chiefs cover in the same week.

479
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 3: You know, let alone have big win blowouts, and you know,

480
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: this Commander's team in a normal year, they're probably you know,

481
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 3: winning their division with the amount of wins they had

482
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 3: this season. Like this isn't just a normal six seed.

483
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 3: So I do understand that trend from Evan. That does

484
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,400
Speaker 3: make sense, but it's also thinking about, well, the sixth

485
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 3: seed used to be the last seed. So that was

486
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 3: when the sixth seed was coming in and playing the

487
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 3: one seed after pulling off an upset and kind of

488
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 3: being this, you know, lucky to be in there type

489
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 3: of team that gets in there, where nowadays it's like

490
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 3: this is like a twelve thirteen win team, Like it's

491
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 3: just totally different now sixteen.

492
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 2: That is a great point.

493
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's just I'm trying.

494
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: To looking for a different because so and your stupid

495
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: well I.

496
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 3: Told you had that amazing stat just to basically about

497
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 3: these high totals. The difference between outdoors and indoors, and

498
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,479
Speaker 3: that to me is once again the difference here, like

499
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 3: we're not playing in twenty degrees Philly here We're playing

500
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,959
Speaker 3: in an air controlled Ford Stadium where it's like perfect,

501
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 3: It's perfect for this type of matchup for these both

502
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 3: these teams are based on the track and they're just

503
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 3: gonna be running the ball up and down the field.

504
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, I still love Washington here. I love the matchup,

505
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: and obviously for them to win this, I know what

506
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 3: I'm doing here. I need a ton of luck, Like

507
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 3: there's a reason you're getting plus four hundred right now

508
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 3: in Washington. But this just feels like the upset. Like

509
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 3: you know, last year, people forget the Chiefs they made

510
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 3: that run as the four seed wherever. It was like,

511
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 3: we've had a run here of you know, these crazy

512
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 3: later seeds making runs. I mean, what was it two

513
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 3: three years ago? The Rams Bengals they are both four

514
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 3: and three seeds. So I know people are used to

515
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 3: just the one seeds dominating. I know historically it is

516
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 3: the best spot to be in, but every now and

517
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: then we do get a crazy upset and that's what

518
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: I'm banking on here. It's like of all the games

519
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: like we've gone through here. I mean, you could say

520
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 3: the Bills are an upset, but that's not an upset.

521
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 3: They're one and a half point dog, one point dog.

522
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 3: That's not I real upset this, This would legit be shocking.

523
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: I mean even talking to book makers, it's basically ninety

524
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money, all

525
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: of it is on Detroit's money line, in their parlays,

526
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 3: all their teasers. So this to me, in our normal year,

527
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 3: I'd feel way more confident about this bet chat. But

528
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 3: it has been the year of chalk, So I'm betting it.

529
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 3: But it's like with a little bit of a little

530
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 3: bit of confidence just because the public has just been

531
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 3: winning on these type of bets.

532
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 1: Well, look, I agree with you, of the two games

533
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: that we're looking at that are bigger favorites, I feel

534
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: much more comfortable betting on the Chiefs than I do

535
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 1: on the Lions. However, we've talked about this all year.

536
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 1: The Lions under Dan Campbell and under Jared Goff are

537
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: just dominant against the spread and against the spread at

538
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 1: home and against the spread with extra rest thirteen and four.

539
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 1: Against the spread as a duo with extra rests eleven

540
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: and two is Phase Golf indoors thirty four to thirteen

541
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: and one against the spread eighteen to two.

542
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 2: And one against the spread.

543
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 1: Against teams averaging more than twenty four points per game,

544
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: the Commanders average twenty eight. The Lions are the best

545
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl era over the past three years

546
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 1: and four years against the spread. And then I want

547
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 1: to remind everybody that the Commanders have won their last

548
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 1: five games on the final play of the game. That's

549
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 1: not even a joke. Five straight games winning the game

550
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: on the final play of the game. So to me,

551
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: that would make me think, Okay, the Commanders know how

552
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: to stay in the game. They're going to keep it close.

553
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: There's an opportunity for a backdoor cover. There's reasons to

554
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: be on the Commanders here. But I will say that

555
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: that includes beating New Orleans, not a very good team

556
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 1: they needed help, beating Philly after Jalen Hurts was injured,

557
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: beating Atlanta because Raheem Morris is still learning how to

558
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: use timeouts, beating Dallas in a game that didn't matter,

559
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 1: and then last week because of Baker mayfields fumbled, they

560
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: stayed in the game, and then they got the Zane

561
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 1: Gonzalez field goal off the upright. So either they are

562
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: truly magical and they will find a way to backdoors,

563
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: huge underdogs or they are due to just get blown

564
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 1: out by a better team.

565
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, we need a lot of luck. And it just

566
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 3: reminds me too of earlier in the year and we bet.

567
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 3: I think they got up to seven and a half

568
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 3: in our contest, or maybe it was six and a half.

569
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 3: Either way, they were playing the Ravens and it was

570
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 3: basically a game where they got dominated the entire game. Yeah,

571
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 3: and they came back exactly a way to come back

572
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 3: back door and it's like he.

573
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: Got up to seven and a half. This is when

574
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: the Ravens couldn't cover anyone in the secondary. Jaden Daniels

575
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 1: had a miraculous throw down the sideline, they scored. They

576
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: ended up covering the seven by half a point. It

577
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 1: was one of the few times where we played the

578
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: number and it actually worked out for us this year.

579
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 1: I will never forget it. It was brilliant and it

580
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: made us love Jayden Daniels.

581
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,479
Speaker 3: And that's what we need though, like we know we need,

582
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 3: We're gonna need a lot of luck here because what

583
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: you just broke down, like Detroit is the better team.

584
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 3: They're more the established team, They're the veteran team. This

585
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 3: is their year, Like we talked about, this is lined

586
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 3: up perfectly. They have all their coaches still on the team,

587
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 3: Their offense basically Montgomery's back, They're ready to go. Their

588
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 3: offense is basically as good as it's gonna get for

589
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: the rest of the season, right Like, there's there's nothing

590
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 3: else they can add other than you know, Montgomery like that,

591
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 3: that to me is the biggest game changer of their

592
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 3: offense having him back with Gibbs, yeah, you know, we

593
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 3: talked about that. That's that's a big deal. So we

594
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: know it's an uphill battle here, and that's why we're

595
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: we're playing the number, you know, throwing a little on

596
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 3: the money line, but it's really all about us getting

597
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 3: this back door. That's that's what me and chat are

598
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 3: hoping here, is that we can get a miracle hell

599
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 3: marry of our own and get this back door cover

600
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 3: or crazy upset win and on a two minute drive

601
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 3: by Jane daneos So. To me, it's just a fun

602
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: bet and a great value bet.

603
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 2: But do you see it? You know what?

604
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: Actually I want to wait. I want to wait until

605
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: we get to your biggest bets because I'm curious think

606
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: about this. Is this a you know one of my

607
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: four biggest bets of the year bets or is this

608
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm finding the edge bet and if

609
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: I've got to choose this side, I'm choosing Washington.

610
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: Don't answer it yet. Let's talk about it with your

611
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: biggest bets.

612
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: The La Rams at Philadelphia Eagles are minus six. The

613
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: total is forty four. It's gone up a little bit.

614
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: This was my exec decision, and not surprisingly, I'm not

615
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: surprised by the feed back that we got on sharp calls.

616
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: To me, it's the only side where there is a

617
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: clear discrepancy between what the number is and what it

618
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: should probably be. You said you would bet this up

619
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: to seven. It has moved up to six and a

620
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: half at a couple of books. I'm still at six

621
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: at bet three six five.

622
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: Nothing has.

623
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: None of my analysis over the past forty eight hours

624
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: has made me walk away from being super confident about

625
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: the Eagles.

626
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 3: Yeah. Still interesting THO. When you look in the action app,

627
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: it's the most of the bets and the money right

628
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: now are still in the rams. So it shows that

629
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 3: you know, what I thought would happened this week is

630
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: kind of happening, which is, you know, the daytime talk shows.

631
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 3: They're going to be shitting on Jalen Hurts. They're gonna

632
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 3: be asking questions, is is he the worst quarterback left

633
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 3: out of all the quarterbacks in the playoffs? Is can

634
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: you trust him? Can you trust this Egos team? Why

635
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 3: wouldn't you trust Stafford, a guy who's been there before? Right,

636
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 3: And you know the fact that they're overlooking many little

637
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,239
Speaker 3: things that we aren't overlooking, which is Egles match up

638
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,239
Speaker 3: really well against this Rams team. And now you have

639
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: you factor in the fact that this is Stafford outdoors

640
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 3: in the rain, in the snow, and it's gonna be

641
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 3: maybe three degrees maybe twenty five degrees that kickoff here

642
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 3: in Philly on Sunday like it's it. It does feel

643
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 3: very easy. And I do wonder why there was professional

644
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 3: money on the Rams early, but now that I know

645
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 3: that most that was just you know, taking the value

646
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 3: what they saw before they ran the numbers. And the

647
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: fact that basically any guy I have talked to who's

648
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 3: coming on the other side at this point, they've come

649
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:47,479
Speaker 3: in on this Egles team and yeah, this is gonna like,

650
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: to me, this is gonna hit a point of Okay,

651
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: if it got up to seven I would totally understand

652
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 3: guys coming back to their side taking the Rams once

653
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: I got up to a touchdown, but still at six,

654
00:31:58,240 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 3: I think there's still a lot of value around this

655
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: Eagle side, and this might not be one of my

656
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 3: biggest bets of the weekend just because of that, where

657
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 3: it's like, I just don't see scenario how the Rams

658
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 3: pull this one off. Like, I don't see how they

659
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 3: can get stops defensively and then offensively. How inconsistent Stafford's

660
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 3: been now factor in the elements. It just feels like

661
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 3: a really bad matchup for him, and I know that.

662
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 3: You know, the Eagles lost to Kobe Dean, who's their

663
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 3: green dot, he's their play caller defensively. You know, Fangio

664
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 3: joked about it. It's like there's only three calls per game.

665
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 3: He's like, I don't run that unique of a defense.

666
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 3: He's like, it's not gonna be that tough. It's it's

667
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 3: the tough spart is losing a leader obviously in your defense.

668
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 3: But we talk coming into the playoffs, Eagles were the

669
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 3: only team with all twenty two of their starters from

670
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 3: Week one at this point of the season. Now, obviously

671
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 3: they can't say anymore. Right, they lost one of their

672
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 3: starters on defense, but other than that, they're pretty healthy.

673
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 3: Now on the flip side, this is the healthiest Rams

674
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 3: have been all year. Like this is their offensive line

675
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 3: is totally healthy. They have all their receivers. I mean,

676
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 3: we and chat talked about a little bit on Tuesday,

677
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 3: like losing Higbee. I haven't got an update on it,

678
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 3: but that's a huge deal for that offense obviously, Like

679
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 3: that's a really big safety valve for the Rams. And

680
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: obviously now losing to Kobe Dean, who's you know, argue

681
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 3: with their best cover linebacker, that's even more of a

682
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: reason to use your tight end and attack that. So

683
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 3: that could be an angle if you're trying to play

684
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 3: it with the Rams. But I just the more I

685
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: look into it, it just feels like the Rams that was

686
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 3: their big moment. They're win for the city last week

687
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 3: in that game against the Vikings, and the way they're

688
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 3: gonna scheme it up this Eagles team, especially with the

689
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 3: weather what it's going to be, which was you know,

690
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: either cold, snowy, or wet, It's gonna be a saque

691
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 3: type of game. And when I go back and I

692
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 3: watch that film on that Rams game. It really did

693
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: look like men playing against college kids. How big the

694
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 3: Eagles offensive line is compared to this d line of

695
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 3: the Rams. So you know the Rams new coming in

696
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: this year, right, They're gonna be really experience inexperienced rebuild year.

697
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 3: Losing Aaron Donald. The guys have been playing above board,

698
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 3: like they have really stepped up. But this is a total,

699
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 3: totally different animal than what they face against the Likes.

700
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 3: Even if you go back and watch the Vikings game,

701
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 3: there was actually pretty big holes in that game for

702
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 3: them running They just got behind and they had to

703
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 3: pass the ball, and once they had to pass the ball,

704
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 3: you saw it just fell apart with Sam Donald, like

705
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 3: there were multiple times there we held on the ball

706
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: for too long. You can't say the same about Hurts.

707
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 3: Like Hurts the type of guy that if the first

708
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: read's not gonna be there, he's gonna either pull it

709
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 3: down and try to run it, or he'll try to

710
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 3: make some type of play happen with his feet, which

711
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 3: you know, Sam Darnald obviously is not the same type

712
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 3: of athlete as Jalen Hurts here. So yeah, the more

713
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 3: I dive into it, Chad, the more I love it.

714
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 3: I'm with you. I was shocked to see this total

715
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 3: win back up. So obviously some smart money is coming

716
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: on the over great give me better value on a

717
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 3: game that's gonna be sloppy in the weather elements with

718
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 3: this outdoor team in LA coming outdoors, Like I just

719
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 3: feel like this does feel like the classic Philly game

720
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 3: we talked on Tuesday, a little bit like thirty one

721
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: to ten, thirty one to fourteen thirty one, Like just

722
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 3: a very low scoring game where you know, one side

723
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 3: puts a bunch of points with other side doesen't. So

724
00:34:58,239 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 3: you know that's that's what I'm bank on you is

725
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 3: that the Eagles obviously roll, but I still think the

726
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 3: Rams could keep up with them offensively. And Yeah, the

727
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: more more I look at this Rams team and how

728
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: special of a season they had, right, I think, you

729
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 3: know they're they're rare spot. They were one to four

730
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 3: start the year and they made a crazy run in

731
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 3: the season. I believe it was nine to two to

732
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 3: take this division. Incredible hats off to this team what

733
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 3: they've done this season, But this just feels like they're

734
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 3: finally running into an absolute juggernut. This Eagles team and

735
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 3: you know they had it last week with John Hurts.

736
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 3: There's no excuse this week that yes, he was rusty,

737
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,439
Speaker 3: he looked rusty. No excuse this week, full game plan,

738
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 3: everything on board. Eagles should absolutely roll this Rams team.

739
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, the number just hasn't made sense all week. Hasn't

740
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: made sense to me that it's not at seven. To

741
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 1: be honest, I talked about this.

742
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 2: The other day.

743
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 1: This line was three when they play each other earlier

744
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 1: in the season, not that long ago, and it was

745
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 1: in La. The fact that it's only six now and

746
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: the Eagles to me, have gotten significantly better. And I

747
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: think there's too much value being placed on what the

748
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 1: Rams did in prime time against the Vikings.

749
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 2: A team that you and I were on. The Rams.

750
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: A lot of professional betters thought they were on a

751
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: downward trend and we're getting off the Sam Donald bandwagon

752
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 1: after what everyone saw against Detroit.

753
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 2: So yeah, bet bet bet bet away.

754
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 3: By a way I said, though, there's some amazing trends here.

755
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 3: If you are scared off by the number, this ego

756
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 3: spot is a great user spot. Basically, when they are

757
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: a big favorite like this at home in the playoffs,

758
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 3: they almost always went out right, especially under Sirianni. It's

759
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 3: been a really great spot. Sirianni struggles with his team

760
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 3: have really come on the road in the playoffs, not

761
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,439
Speaker 3: so much at home. So it's another just a great

762
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 3: spot to back this team at home before Obviously they're

763
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 3: most likely going on the road next week to Detroit.

764
00:36:52,920 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 2: Simon, it is time for hour Big Ball is Better

765
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: the Week.

766
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy

767
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,

768
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest We're heading into the

769
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens.

770
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 2: At the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are.

771
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: One point favorites now at bet three sixty five. Still

772
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: a couple of one and a half's out there, but

773
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 1: money has been coming back in on the Bills. As

774
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: we discussed during sharp calls, the total is fifty one

775
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 1: and a half. We're throwing people a little bit of

776
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 1: a curveball. I'll get to that in a second. Just

777
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 1: some updates. Za Flowers did not practice on Wednesday. John

778
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: Harbaugh said that doesn't necessarily mean he won't play on Sunday,

779
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 1: but he did not practice. This is a luck rankings

780
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 1: under We discussed liking the under in this game.

781
00:37:55,280 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 2: It is our big ball bet, our first big.

782
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: Balls under, presented by Tommy John fifty one and a

783
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: half Bills Ravens.

784
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 2: We were never going to.

785
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 1: Get there as a big balls with the Bills. I

786
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,439
Speaker 1: can't get there with the Bills. The wise guys can't

787
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: get there with the Bills. You might be on an

788
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: island in some respect with the Bills despite the money moving.

789
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 1: But betting the under here feels like ballzy because all

790
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: anyone wants to do is talk about the quarterbacks in

791
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: this game, and that is making the number higher than

792
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: you would expect because of the explosive nature of how

793
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: these two guys can score points. But in seven playoff games,

794
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: Lamar has never gone over. Even when these two teams

795
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 1: played last time and Derek Henry scored on i think

796
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,879
Speaker 1: the first play of the game, it still went under

797
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: from the original total.

798
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 2: And like these are run oriented teams.

799
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 3: Baltimore's key right there, that's the key right there, what

800
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 3: you just said.

801
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: Baltimore's time of possession fifth in the league past three games.

802
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: It's first Buffalo is fifth.

803
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 1: Both are top four in rushing play percentage and top

804
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:28,479
Speaker 1: seven in rushing attempts per game. People are just thinking

805
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: about the quarterbacks and the MVP candidates. They're not thinking

806
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: about the holistic nature of this game.

807
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's tends what the public does, right. They

808
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,919
Speaker 3: just look at the base six of it and they're silly. Yeah,

809
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 3: and that's why the early money here has come in.

810
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 3: I'm hoping people listening to this this is the rare spiral.

811
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 3: I'm like, pull your car over, bet this under and now,

812
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 3: because to me, all the money is going to come

813
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 3: in professionally on the under, and I think the public

814
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 3: will join them once they see that this is another

815
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 3: weather game. Shat, this is a game, are right. They're

816
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 3: saying might be eighteen degrees ten degrees, It feels like

817
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: ten degrees or negative three degrees whatever they're gonna project

818
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 3: with that lake effect wins because they're saying it might

819
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: be fifteen to twenty per hour wins during this game

820
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 3: as well. Some lake effects snow as well. So this

821
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 3: just everything about this says ugly low scoring game where

822
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 3: two teams are both run heavy, and you know, you

823
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 3: just touch on like this Bill's identity. Especially the second

824
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 3: half of the season, it feels like every time I'm

825
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 3: watching them, they're bringing in the extra alignment, right, They're

826
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 3: always just gonna say that, Yeah, it's the truth. Though,

827
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 3: It's like that's totally what they've become because they know

828
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 3: they have the ultimate weapon in the backfield. I mean,

829
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 3: obviously Littmore's ultimate weapon, but Josh Allen's right there with

830
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 3: him where it's like you can do the read option

831
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 3: with him and Cook and you bring in that extra linement.

832
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,439
Speaker 3: You let Josh Allen dictate the play if they don't

833
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 3: step up to stop their run, if they're going to

834
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: keep the safeties back to stop the passing down the field,

835
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,399
Speaker 3: the Bills are more than happy to run the ball

836
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 3: all day. And that's what they've been doing. Like defenses

837
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 3: having respect Josh Allen's big arm and the fact that

838
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 3: he is not turning the ball over. It's really changed

839
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 3: everything with this Bills team. They can be boring, long

840
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 3: drive conservative and just run the ball. I mean, Cook,

841
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 3: you know, we don't talk about him enough because of

842
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 3: the Josh Allen factor, but it's like this guy is

843
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 3: a top five, top six running back right now football.

844
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 3: Like he is that rare breed that when you get

845
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 3: down towards the red zone, he can find a way

846
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 3: every time they get in there like he's he's got

847
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 3: that type of talent where he can find those holes

848
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 3: and squeak in to get those touchdowns. And you know,

849
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 3: they've really relied on him the season. We're giving him

850
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 3: more touches the season going along end. You know, the

851
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 3: fact that this is fifty one and a half, I

852
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 3: think Chad just talked about it. It really feels like

853
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 3: an inflated line because of public reception. It's the two

854
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 3: MVPs playing against each other like this is going to

855
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 3: be a type of shootout, and the books are being

856
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 3: rewarded right now. The money, the bets all of there

857
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 3: right now are still on the over. So I want

858
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 3: people to get ahead of it. This easily could shift

859
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 3: two points by kickoff just because of the weather. And

860
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 3: I think that once more news out, let's start talking

861
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 3: about once more you know sports shows started talking about,

862
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 3: That's when more people are gonna start coming on this total. Now,

863
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: do you want to get to the sides?

864
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 1: Chad, Well, listen, I love the sides of Thanksgiving. I'm

865
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 1: a huge sweet potato guy.

866
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 3: Are you dugging though? That's what the people want to know,

867
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 3: is Chad dug in on the Ravens. Are you Are

868
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 3: you betting the Ravens.

869
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 2: I might just go all in on the under you

870
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: you pick a side.

871
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 3: Because people are giving me shit. They're like, they're like,

872
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 3: this is the classic spot where Chad and Simon we're

873
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 3: gonna count this as a win no matter what side

874
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 3: they go on. No, I'm gonna make Chad pick a side.

875
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 3: I will pick a side, and one of us will

876
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:38,399
Speaker 3: dance another side's grave.

877
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:40,359
Speaker 2: All well, this is gonna have to be a Scoo

878
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 2: treu let game. I have not made a decision.

879
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: Mare party of me is just sort of hoping the

880
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: money keeps coming in on the bills and I can get.

881
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: It back to pick.

882
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 3: That's true. That's true.

883
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 1: So like I don't I don't feel rushed to choose

884
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:55,439
Speaker 1: a side in this game at all, but I will

885
00:42:55,520 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: say as a favorite of three points or less or underdog.

886
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 1: Lamar is twenty six and nine against the spread in

887
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 1: the playoffs and the regular seasons, the only six times

888
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 1: in his career he is open as an underdog and

889
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 1: ended up closing as a favorite. He's six and oh

890
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 1: against the spread and six and oh straight up, Like,

891
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: it's very hard not to want to back Lamar, who

892
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: also I think is leading a more well rounded team. However,

893
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 1: Josh Allen versus teams that allow less than twenty one

894
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: points per game sixty nine percent against the spread. That

895
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: is comparable to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees.

896
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 2: So there's there's ways to love both sides.

897
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 3: He I totally overall, though, like you just said, the

898
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 3: numbers do favorite the Ravens, like when you really died into.

899
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: The trend percent if you look at if you look

900
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 1: at the overall matchup, the Ravens are the better team,

901
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 1: right and that's look it's reflected in the line. They

902
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 1: are very short favorites on the road against the number

903
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 1: two seed. The market, the bookmakers are telling you that

904
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 1: the Ravens are the better team in this matchup. If

905
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 1: you don't play this game on the field. Obviously, I

906
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,879
Speaker 1: want to get the best number I can. I don't

907
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: feel rushed to bet the Ravens, yet I'm still frustrated

908
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 1: that I didn't bet them at plus two. I'm definitely

909
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: leaning to the Ravens. We talked about the first half

910
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: the other day. Betting the Ravens at minus a half

911
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 1: point Stucky on the Action Network pod talked about the

912
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 1: Ravens first half on the money line. I feel like

913
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 1: every time at minus one ten, I feel like every

914
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 1: time Stucky talks about betting the Ravens in the first half,

915
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: they cover.

916
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 2: It's it's it's weird, but.

917
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 3: That's pretty good. I feel like the best first half

918
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 3: team other than ever.

919
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 2: And by the way, the Bills are the second are

920
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 2: the best second half team ever.

921
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 3: And I told you that. That's what Like. There's a

922
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: bunch of trends I love with the Bills, but that

923
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: was the biggest one that jumped out to me that yes,

924
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 3: the Ravens win the first half thirteen to ten. Yeah,

925
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 3: you cover your first half bet, but that is like,

926
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 3: you're dead. To me, You're dead. If you're a Ravens backer,

927
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 3: you need at least a ten point lead head into

928
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 3: the second half. Because Josh Allen all season has flipped

929
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 3: a switch and we saw it. Let me start a

930
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 3: week one, I mean, me and Chad, We're on Arizona

931
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 3: Week one against this Bills team. Feeling great. I think

932
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 3: we had six and a half or seven maybe, and

933
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 3: Arizona dominates the first half. Josh Allen came out the

934
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 3: second half just absolutely dominated, blew them out, and it

935
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 3: basically set the tone for the whole season where it

936
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 3: doesn't matter where he's at, what his team is struggles

937
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 3: are in the second half, it's just Josh Allen. He

938
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 3: makes like there are no adjustments how the team can

939
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: make to slow him down. And we've seen late here though,

940
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 3: I think the Bills defense second half has really caught

941
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 3: up to it. They've been great at making these second

942
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,359
Speaker 3: half adjustments and really helping obviously this Bills team stay

943
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 3: in these type of games. So yeah, I've I'm I'm

944
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 3: with Chad that like, I feel way more confidence and

945
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 3: betting the under here, but I have to pick a side.

946
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 3: I am betting a side. I am betting the Bills,

947
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 3: But I mean, I'm not banging the table like fuck man,

948
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: I'm talking some pros here, like you idiot, this is

949
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 3: the easiest money in life. You gotta take the Ravens here,

950
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 3: And it's just like, what the fuck do you know, dude,

951
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 3: Like you're feeling that confident about betting this number. I

952
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 3: feel more confident or other bets on the sides than

953
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: they do in this one where it's like I'm I'm

954
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 3: betting here, on my model obviously, but it's also just

955
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:38,239
Speaker 3: a playoff feeling of this. This does feel like the

956
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 3: type of spot to back. Not that he's doubted here,

957
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 3: Josh Allen, but it feels like it right when you're

958
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 3: going through the playoff numbers. He doesn't have a great

959
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 3: record either in the playoffs, right, and that we talked

960
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 3: about that's never I never put that on him. I've

961
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 3: always put that on the defense that they've kind of

962
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 3: let him down these exact spots we're having Stefan Diggs

963
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 3: drop a ball right between his hands, like, yeah, I

964
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 3: know the Bills have been a curse franchise and they've

965
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 3: had bad luck in these exact spots. Were on the

966
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 3: flip side. I mean, fuck, dude, the Ravens became a

967
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 3: franchise on what ch had nineteen ninety eight and they

968
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: have two Super Bowls like they don't. This is not

969
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 3: some long suffering fan base. This is a fan base

970
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 3: has been spoiled beyond belief. And yeah, Evan has an

971
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 3: amazing stat Josh Allen, oh and three as a dog

972
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 3: in his career. But I think he little thing that

973
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 3: you know, saying to us in the playoffs only three

974
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 3: is a dog in the playoffs and straight up that's

975
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 3: all against Mahomes though, like when I'm oh, Houston, oh

976
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 3: right right, we did bet that one. I do remember

977
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,840
Speaker 3: that game, Houston two and a half. Yeah, that is

978
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 3: weird thinking back to that. Holy shit, Watson man, damn,

979
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 3: that's crazy. Yeah. So I don't know, it's it feels

980
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 3: like Alan I've just viewed as Krypto as the Chiefs.

981
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 3: I just think this is, you know, this not this

982
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 3: his career defining, but this is definitely off season defining,

983
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 3: Like the amount of shit that's gonna come on the

984
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 3: other side whoever loses this game, especially if Josh Allen

985
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 3: doesn't live up to the moment or Lamar doesn't live

986
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 3: up to the moment. I mean, it's all there. This

987
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 3: is what you know, TV lives for talking about this

988
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: in the offseason. So yeah, this, this obviously is the

989
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 3: biggest game of the weekend, no doubt.

990
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 2: This is the you talk about sides.

991
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,840
Speaker 1: This is the main course, brother, This is like the

992
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 1: game the ratings that we should we should set a

993
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,240
Speaker 1: line for what the ratings will be like. If ratings

994
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: have generally been twenty five twenty six million viewers for

995
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 1: the playoffs, I think this goes to twenty eight twenty

996
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 1: eight million viewers for this Let's let's keep an eye

997
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 1: on that so we can talk about our next week.

998
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell.

999
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: Make a note if Matt Mitchell survives the weekend, because

1000
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: we know the Bills are long suffering fans, because Matt

1001
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 1: Mitchell talks about it non fucking stop. It is he's

1002
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 1: making zero long term plans right now because we don't

1003
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 1: know if we don't even know if he'll be here

1004
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 1: to record the podcast on Sunday night because of his

1005
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 1: love for the Bills. Yeah, I feel like my biggest

1006
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 1: bets this weekend are going to be the under in

1007
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 1: the Eagles, and if I bet on the Ravens, it's

1008
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:12,760
Speaker 1: going to be like a tiny little.

1009
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 2: Taste or maybe the first half. I have no courage

1010
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 2: on this game.

1011
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 3: I can't follow you. I told you there's there's smart,

1012
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 3: professional money on that Raven side.

1013
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:23,240
Speaker 2: And I'm a professional simon.

1014
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 3: Okay, I definitely say it's it's more. It's it's more

1015
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 3: of the professional side as we sit here on Thursday.

1016
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 3: But like Chad just talked a little bit about, there

1017
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 3: is some respecting money coming at this point on the

1018
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 3: Bill side, and there has been some buyback and we

1019
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 3: have seen this number move down to one, so it

1020
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 3: is a really torn game between professionals this one.

1021
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 1: Simon, we have some big road underdogs here in the

1022
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: divisional round, and one of the biggest thrills a gambler

1023
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 1: can experience is watching the quarterback of a big underdog,

1024
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 1: with the game just out of reach, masterfully march his

1025
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 1: team down the field to score a feudal last second

1026
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 1: touchdown to cover the spread. That's what we call a

1027
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 1: back door cover. But after the thrill wears off, it's

1028
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 1: only natural to think what is covering my back door?

1029
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 1: And that's where the unrivaled breathable comfort of Tommy John

1030
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: steps in because with thousands of five star reviews, Tommy

1031
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: John has been on the cutting edge of covering America's

1032
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 1: back doors with flexible comfort four years.

1033
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 2: Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in

1034
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five?

1035
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:35,879
Speaker 3: Because comfort is king.

1036
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash

1037
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 1: favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order.

1038
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.

1039
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. I'm laughing a

1040
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 1: little bit because, as is tradition, I'm a train monkey.

1041
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 1: I just I read whatever is in front of me.

1042
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 1: I have no idea what the ad read is going

1043
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 1: to be. And a lot of times Matt Mitchell, all

1044
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: credit to him, will create entirely new reads that I

1045
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: am reading in real time for the first time. And

1046
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,319
Speaker 1: so when I saw the line that's what we got,

1047
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 1: that's what we call a backdoor cover, I was like,

1048
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 1: oh God, where is he going to take this pun?

1049
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:20,439
Speaker 1: I have no idea how is he going to work

1050
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 1: this into an acceptable ad for our sponsor, Tommy John

1051
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 1: And he did it and it makes me giggle every

1052
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 1: single time. He's a genius. I hope the Bills win

1053
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 1: because we'd truly be at a loss. Simon, I have

1054
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 1: said my biggest bets are going to be the under

1055
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: and the Eagles. Tell me what your biggest bets are

1056
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 1: going to be.

1057
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm heavy on the Eagles side right now. Definitely

1058
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:43,320
Speaker 3: heavy on this under. Like you just talked about. In

1059
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 3: this game, Sam goes for teasers like if you want

1060
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 3: to join me right now, have a ton of teasers

1061
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 3: with the Chiefs Eagles, tons of teasers with the Commanders

1062
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 3: with the Bills. Obviously love the Commanders, and you know,

1063
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 3: like I said, I I've taken the plus nine and

1064
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 3: a half and I've thrown a little bet, just a

1065
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 3: little bet on the money line here. It's just something

1066
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 3: I have to do where I you know, this is

1067
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:11,959
Speaker 3: the only real dog in this matchup I actually believe

1068
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 3: in that can pull off the upset. So I have

1069
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 3: to do it. Like there's got to be one shocker,

1070
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 3: right This can't be the Year of Chalk, the year

1071
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 3: of boring Chad. Can we get an upset here in

1072
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 3: this divisional round? So yeah, for my biggest bets, not

1073
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 3: a shocker. Love Eagles, especially even at minus six, and

1074
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 3: love that under in that Bill's raven game. Just that

1075
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 3: feels like I have it at forty eight and a

1076
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 3: half even if it came down by two points. I

1077
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:35,920
Speaker 3: think you're still getting good value of forty nine and

1078
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,359
Speaker 3: a half. So, like we talk all the time key

1079
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 3: numbers people, fifty one and a half is a key number,

1080
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 3: Like if you go mathematically how often that lanes on

1081
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 3: fifty one? You are still getting great value right now

1082
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 3: taking this under a fifty one and a half when

1083
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:53,879
Speaker 3: all hope is lost. All this left is relief. Let's

1084
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 3: play scoot Roulette.

1085
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,800
Speaker 2: Scoot Roulette. You'll be on the Bill, I'll be on

1086
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,920
Speaker 2: the Ravens, and we'll just fucking do it. I never win.

1087
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:08,280
Speaker 2: I've just cursed the Ravens. You're welcome, Matt Mitchell.

1088
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 1: I'm doing it for you, just so you'll be around

1089
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 1: and your whole neighborhood gets ice cream and you get

1090
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: to eat your fucking wings with your gloves on.

1091
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,720
Speaker 2: But that's what it's going to be. Scoot Roulette, Bills

1092
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 2: and Ravens.

1093
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,359
Speaker 1: Let's go all right, before we get out of here,

1094
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 1: let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams for the

1095
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 1: final word.

1096
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 2: Evan, this ought would be good. The last word with

1097
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

1098
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 4: This is going to be a mess. To answer one

1099
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 4: of Simon's questions from earlier. So you talked about Hurts

1100
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 4: and a teaser, Well, how about this favorite of seven

1101
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 4: or less at home or an underdog? Hurts is seventeen

1102
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 4: and five against the spread in his career, twenty and

1103
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 4: two in a six point teaser in that spot, so

1104
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 4: basically asking him to win the game, but not too

1105
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 4: bad there.

1106
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 1: So to your point, though, like putting the Eagles in

1107
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 1: a six point teaser right now and getting them at

1108
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: pit with either the Chiefs at two and a half

1109
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 1: or the Bills at seven and a half is as

1110
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 1: good a play as what I did, which is Chiefs

1111
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:08,359
Speaker 1: minus two and a half Bills plus seven and a half.

1112
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 4: Feels like a decent leg obviously, if you like the

1113
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:15,319
Speaker 4: Eagles hits the money line. Let's talk about the cold

1114
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 4: game you started with, which is Houston and Kansas City.

1115
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 4: So Houston will attempt to do what hasn't been done

1116
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 4: in almost thirty years. So road playoff teams since two

1117
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,480
Speaker 4: thousand and three, nine and thirteen straight up in eight

1118
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 4: plus mile an hour wins twenty five degrees or less.

1119
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 4: Now they are zero to four when they are Dome

1120
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 4: teams losing by sixteen point eight points per game. The

1121
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 4: last Dome team I found to win in those temperatures

1122
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 4: on the road in twenty five degrees or less than

1123
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:47,400
Speaker 4: the playoffs ninety five ninety six Colts in Kansas City, Jim.

1124
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 3: Harbaugh at quarterback. There so been a minute.

1125
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 4: Let's see if Houston can pull the all time shockers.

1126
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 4: So I kind of wanted to talk Washington and Detroit

1127
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,319
Speaker 4: here for a second, and there's been a little bit

1128
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 4: of waffling. So a lot of people like Detroit, a

1129
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 4: lot of people like Washington. I'll just toss out two

1130
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 4: different angles here. So it's not often we see a

1131
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 4: super dominant team like Detroit. So seventy five percent plus

1132
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 4: ats win percentage entering the playoffs plus being a favorite

1133
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 4: of nine or more, it's only happened three times last

1134
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 4: twenty years. Aaron Rodgers two thousand and eight, one by

1135
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:25,919
Speaker 4: twenty two, Drew Brees twenty twelve, one by seventeen, Tom

1136
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 4: Brady twenty seventeen.

1137
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 3: One by eighteen.

1138
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 4: So if you like Detroit and you think they are

1139
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 4: the juggernaut they are walking in sounds decent to me.

1140
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 4: Now the one angle I looked at because listen, Washington

1141
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 4: scoring twenty eight points per game, obviously Jaden putting up

1142
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 4: a ton of points on the ground through the air.

1143
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 3: I thought this was interesting.

1144
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:46,839
Speaker 4: So playoff underdogs is seven and a half or more,

1145
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 4: just simply off the bat, thirty two and twenty nine

1146
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 4: against the spread last twenty years. But what happens if

1147
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:56,800
Speaker 4: the underdog scores, say seventeen points, those dogs are twenty

1148
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 4: six and thirteen against the spread sixty seven percent. If

1149
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 4: they score twenty one plus eighteen and eight sixty nine percent.

1150
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 4: So to me, it's more of a question of Washington's

1151
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 4: team total than it is the actual spread, But just

1152
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 4: two different ways to look at it.

1153
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,400
Speaker 3: And then I found this interesting.

1154
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 4: So basically, this Josh Allen Lamar Jackson game is pretty

1155
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 4: much one two in MVP. Now, obviously Saquon could sneak

1156
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 4: in there or whatever. We haven't seen the votes yet,

1157
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,919
Speaker 4: but if you look at top two players to meet

1158
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 4: in the playoffs in MVP voting, it'll be the fourteenth

1159
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 4: time according to FTN who did this research. But I

1160
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,399
Speaker 4: went a little deeper because I wanted to see when

1161
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,320
Speaker 4: was the last time one of those two quarterbacks or

1162
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 4: players were home underdogs in the game. Last happened nineteen

1163
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 4: seventy six. So the fact that Josh Allen is going

1164
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 4: to close as a home underdog in this game between

1165
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 4: two people two quarterbacks in MVP voting felt, you know,

1166
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 4: like the line maybe didn't make sense, but obviously it's

1167
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:00,760
Speaker 4: how you put it there. The last time it happened

1168
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 4: nineteen seventy six Steelers at Baltimore Colts, it was Burt

1169
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 4: Jones versus Jack Lambert. So that is the last time

1170
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,720
Speaker 4: it actually happened fourteen matchups between.

1171
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 2: Why this line makes sense now?

1172
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: Why it makes sense because Lamar Jackson should win the MVP,

1173
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 1: He should be the odds on favorite to win the MVP.

1174
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,640
Speaker 4: I agree, I completely agree, and I've been saying two.

1175
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 1: Years at the end, Simon, You're a hater. V Simon's

1176
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: a hater. He doesn't agree, but Evan agrees. All right,

1177
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: we are applying logic and reason to this. We're not

1178
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 1: getting emotional about the narrative.

1179
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 4: Correct, we are, and that's why the line, honestly in

1180
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 4: this game is probably one of the more interesting we've seen, right.

1181
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think anyone really.

1182
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 4: Can choose between these two teams, but I think the

1183
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 4: public has because it likes Baltimore in this spot line

1184
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 4: down to one right now too, So I really truly

1185
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 4: believe no one has any idea. I'll leave you with

1186
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 4: just a spot play. So for Washington and the Rams,

1187
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 4: both one last week is underdogs, both now on short

1188
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 4: rest on the road. Those teams are thirty six and

1189
00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 4: seventy six thirty two percent straight up, including three and

1190
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 4: eleven straight up in the playoffs since two thousand and three,

1191
00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 4: so an upset there by either Washington or the Rams

1192
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 4: would truly be odds defying.

1193
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 1: An interesting parlay could be Washington team total over and

1194
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 1: Washington to cover, because if the odds are so great

1195
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,400
Speaker 1: and the trend is so great that teams who score

1196
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,920
Speaker 1: over that number of seventeen or twenty one, which the

1197
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 1: Commanders can acceptably do, and those teams tend to cover,

1198
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 1: that's a fun little parlay.

1199
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 3: Yeah. Also, if you're betting the over, like I've talked

1200
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,439
Speaker 3: about same game parlay, like if you want to throw

1201
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:56,400
Speaker 3: in David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown, like, go go

1202
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 3: crazy if you're trying to do something crazy like that,

1203
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 3: cause obviously, if we're getting to fifty five points, we're

1204
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 3: gonna need a lot of touchdowns. Chat. So I know

1205
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 3: we will talk a lot about same game parlays. But

1206
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 3: this is Zack scenari where you see those dumb tickets

1207
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:09,479
Speaker 3: of guy bets ten dollars to win twenty thousand because

1208
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 3: he's same game parlayed all these different touchdown scores. That's

1209
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 3: basically what we need here if we want to hit

1210
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 3: this over so yeah, that's another angle to play in

1211
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 3: that game.

1212
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 1: I like having so few games, we can get so

1213
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 1: much deeper. As a reminders that f.

1214
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 4: I'll say, I gotta find Tim Patrick on that ticket

1215
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 4: as well. That's gonna be a good one this way.

1216
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 2: That's a good idea. I like it.

1217
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,440
Speaker 1: I'm writing that down. I got a whole page of

1218
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 1: other turn of bets here, all right, Raybond Special, Yeah,

1219
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 1: that is that as I'm sure we'll get some of that.

1220
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 1: I'm convinced me as a reminder. The Favorites podcast is

1221
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet

1222
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1230
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:11,840
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01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1235
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites on the Action of Work You

1236
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 1: two page later than usual reminder later than usual Sunday

1237
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 1: night after the Ravens Bills game. To recap all the

1238
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 1: divisional round games, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever

1239
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:41,880
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1240
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 1: say whatever you want feedback as a gift till next time.

1241
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 2: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1242
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 2: you or someone you care has a gambling problem, help

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