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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the court ten seconds

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Speaker 2: of eating.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna just go show me up to the basket.

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Speaker 3: Under the basket. It's the truth for the wind God

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Speaker 3: a miracle.

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Speaker 1: I chuck the water.

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Speaker 4: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 1: Bett MGM. This is the Conference Tournament Betting Preview, Part one.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Stucky and joining me as always Mike

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Speaker 1: Calabreson PJ Cunningham. I'm fresh back for Maruba, ready to go.

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Speaker 1: I'm feeling great. Mike might take my job hosted Big

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Speaker 1: Bets on Campus and placing me on Saturday. Thank you

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Speaker 1: for that, Mike, and Best Bets go eight. No, well done.

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Speaker 1: How's it going, Mike?

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Speaker 3: It's easy when you're fading Florida without Castleton and Gonzaga.

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Speaker 3: I just, of course regret that it wasn't a slam

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Speaker 3: spot for me. I just had a regular amount of

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Speaker 3: units on it. But even though just as a pure

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Speaker 3: gambler me eight to zero on Best Bets, we did

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Speaker 3: a great job. I'm still pissed about the Arkansas game,

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Speaker 3: I get exactly what I wanted. Alabama makes three three pointers,

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Speaker 3: Nick Smith Junior goes off for twenty plus and somehow

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Speaker 3: they still don't win that game because I want to say,

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Speaker 3: they missed seven or eight straight foul shots in the

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Speaker 3: second half, a bunch of front ends as well. They

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Speaker 3: end up losing by a single possession. So that one

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Speaker 3: burned me because I think I was on the right side.

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Speaker 3: But Alabama, they're playing with fire. Not a great thing

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Speaker 3: to be doing headed into conference tournament week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well done. And it's you know some of these,

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Speaker 1: it's amazing how much more efficient the college basketball betty

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Speaker 1: market is teach passing week. It's just it's stunning for

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Speaker 1: me to watch, like that good Zaga slam spot. You

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Speaker 1: know that line gets up to six. As you know

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Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, that's three and a half. Iowa,

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Speaker 1: I thought we were gonna get like three, three and

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Speaker 1: a half, four, it's at six, five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Thoughts and prayers to anybody who had both No, so

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Speaker 1: listen on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday and Sunday, if you

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Speaker 1: had Michigan State plus five and a half lose in overtime,

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Speaker 1: I'll let you talk about that comeback in a sec

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Speaker 1: beach on one of the craziest comebacks of all time.

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Speaker 1: And then you have Wisconsin on Sunday plus five and

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Speaker 1: a half and Hunter Dickinson first, one of your best players,

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Speaker 1: goes out for the game with an injie. Hunter Dickinson

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Speaker 1: hits you know, a bomb three to force overtime and

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Speaker 1: Michigan wins by eight. The big ten home court advantage

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Speaker 1: voodoo continues. But what an amazing comeback by Iowa who

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Speaker 1: looked dead in the water, and Michigan State was hitting

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Speaker 1: every free throw, which makes the comeback even more amazing

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Speaker 1: because they just missed the one, the one free throw,

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Speaker 1: which is they almost got to the end with Iowa

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Speaker 1: hitting just three after three after three, and we called it.

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Speaker 1: We said I was due to just eventually. Now took forever,

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Speaker 1: and Michigan State made every single three. It took forever,

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Speaker 1: but I was threes finally started falling, and all it

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Speaker 1: took was one Michigan State missed free throw, and I

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Speaker 1: would takes advantage.

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Speaker 3: Pjed, where were you watching that?

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Speaker 1: And how did you You basically had to give up

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Speaker 1: on it right at some point.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's funny, you know in life with a kid.

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Speaker 2: Now, it's like, all right, if a game is over,

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Speaker 2: I kind of got to like go away from the

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Speaker 2: TV and start like helping out and everything like that

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Speaker 2: with my wife. And I was I was kind of

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Speaker 2: stepping away for a little bit, but I always had

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Speaker 2: my phone like there, and I was just like, okay,

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Speaker 2: like we're getting beat whatever like, and then I was like, wait,

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Speaker 2: it's starting to get it. Then for the final minute,

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Speaker 2: when it got to ninety six to ninety two or

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Speaker 2: thirty seconds left, I was like all right, and I

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Speaker 2: just pulled it up on my phone and I was

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Speaker 2: just kind of watching it. Yeah, it was berserk. I

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Speaker 2: would made five threes in the final minute.

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Speaker 4: Of the game is insane, insane.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, like you said, Michigan State made pretty much

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Speaker 2: everfree throw, you know, in the final minute, they missed

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Speaker 2: just two of their free throws, and I would just

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Speaker 2: made every single shot. And of course when he gets

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Speaker 2: to you all over time, that's exactly you know what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen from there.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, just unbelievable come back from the Hawkeyes.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm as a fan, I'm probably going bet

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Speaker 2: on them to win the Big Ten Tournament. But if

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Speaker 2: they're a long shot, if they're hitting threes, they got

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Speaker 2: a shot to win the Big Ten Tournament, just like

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Speaker 2: they did last year.

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Speaker 3: From a strude perspective, BJ just real quick to jump

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Speaker 3: in because obviously, yeah, this is important not only to you,

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Speaker 3: but also to our audience, because you want to make

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Speaker 3: sure that you're putting yourself in a situation to win.

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Speaker 3: When you are trying to watch those games with a

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Speaker 3: kid and a wife, knowing that you want to watch it,

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Speaker 3: are you more of the school like, let me take

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Speaker 3: the garbage out, walk it to the end of the driveway,

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Speaker 3: go slow. Are you hunkering down in the bathroom and

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Speaker 3: trying to, you know, eat up as much bathroom time

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Speaker 3: as you can just watching the last thirty seconds can

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Speaker 3: turning to ten minutes drop of a hat, and no

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Speaker 3: problem with reviews and time out.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, there's it's usually a bathroom for me.

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Speaker 2: It's usually you know, I gotta take a dump, so

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Speaker 2: you know, you go in there and you know, I've

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Speaker 2: already established with my wife and it's.

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Speaker 4: Like a twenty minute session every time for me at

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Speaker 4: this point, So.

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Speaker 2: It just gives me that extra time in the bathroom.

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Speaker 2: You know, as Stucky stated, we're not a safe driving podcast.

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Speaker 2: So sometimes it'll be you know, oh, I gotta go

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Speaker 2: to the grocery store to grab this for dinner, you know,

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Speaker 2: and then the phone comes out. So yeah, it's you

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Speaker 2: find any little way you can to watch it without

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Speaker 2: your wife absolutely hating you, which eventually ends up happening.

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Speaker 4: But that's okay. But yeah, it's what a wild comeback.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I just have no words for that, just just

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Speaker 2: absolutely insane from the Hawkeyes.

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Speaker 3: As a kid, I remember this is going to date

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Speaker 3: me a little bit, but I had game Gear. So

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Speaker 3: there's game Boy and then game Gear was like the

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Speaker 3: Sega version. It was in color, and I had this

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Speaker 3: thing that you put in the game slot called TV tuner.

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Speaker 3: It would have the Bunny years to come out, and

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Speaker 3: you can get like three or four channels. And at

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Speaker 3: the time I would watch like colle s football games

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Speaker 3: and stuff like that, like in my room on it.

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Speaker 3: And I always had this dream that I could be

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Speaker 3: in the bathroom, I could be at the grocery store.

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Speaker 3: I didn't know i'd be running away from my family actively,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, it's a great time to be alive. You

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Speaker 3: can catch essentially all the actions exactly.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's let's get into well, let's kind of

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Speaker 1: map out what this episode and the next couple weeks

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Speaker 1: are going to look like. We're gonna preview every conference tournament,

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Speaker 1: and there's they're actually starting. There's one that starts today.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about that in just a second. We'll

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Speaker 1: recap the week that was. If you have any rants,

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Speaker 1: go ahead, any just one thing you took away from

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Speaker 1: the weekend, and then we'll get right into it. We have

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Speaker 1: four conference tournaments that are going to start over the

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Speaker 1: next two days. We'll talk about all four from a

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Speaker 1: future's perspective, and then you know, midweek on Wednesday, you

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Speaker 1: have the three man Weave who we're going to pick

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Speaker 1: up the mid week episode. They'll talk about the conference

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Speaker 1: are going to start Wednesday and Thursday, give out some

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Speaker 1: plays well, and we'll talk about tonight if we have

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Speaker 1: a play that we want to mention. Then you Friday,

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Speaker 1: we'll do our normal weekend preview. We'll mention some spots

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Speaker 1: that we like, but we'll also talk about all the

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Speaker 1: conference cernaments that start and then repeat that process. Then

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Speaker 1: next week there's gonna be a ton of a ton

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Speaker 1: of conferences that start, so we're gonna break up all

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Speaker 1: those episodes. I'll host them all on Sunday. It's a

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Speaker 1: crazy day for me. I do like ten hours of podcasting.

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Speaker 1: Everyone will take a conference and we'll do We'll put

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Speaker 1: out a bunch of episodes to cover all the conference tournaments.

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Speaker 3: So more on that later in the week.

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Speaker 1: For the exact details, but for now, we're going to

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Speaker 1: cover the four conference cernments to start in the next

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Speaker 1: two days.

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Speaker 3: But first weekend takeaways.

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Speaker 1: Any rants, I'll say, you know, I'll look Kentucky looked

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Speaker 1: really good against Auburn. They're they're they're dangerous that they

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Speaker 1: have a lot of talent, they're starting to figure out

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Speaker 1: their rotation. I was really impressed with what I saw

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Speaker 1: from them, and they might be getting hot at the

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Speaker 1: right time. And rant uh, I had a bet I'll

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Speaker 1: rand them myself. I had a bad number on I

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Speaker 1: had a bet some early. I was out on Friday night.

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Speaker 1: I took New Mexico plus two and I pushed on

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Speaker 1: the San Diego State shot.

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Speaker 3: Which sucked.

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Speaker 1: But other than that, it was a small winning weekend.

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Speaker 1: Oh Fresno State, by the way, I hate Fresno State.

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Speaker 1: I haven't think it'st Nevada, Nevada again. They are covering,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the last minute, they miss every shot

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Speaker 1: again and then they're down four. I haven't plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. They're down four with the twelve seconds ago.

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Speaker 1: They don't they decide not to foul, like come on,

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Speaker 1: like the amunt of thunderdogs that have it that foul

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Speaker 1: down nine with like three seconds and they don't fouled

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Speaker 1: out four to give me another shot at a a three.

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Speaker 1: So that was annoying, but it's all It's all good

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Speaker 1: vibes from here on out. Indiana huge wind. That was

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest wins of the weekend. But Chafina

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Speaker 1: was amazing. Purdues kind of trending down. I think Indiana

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Speaker 1: is trending up. Happy with that future, and a creting

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Speaker 1: with a concerning loss on the road to Villanova. But

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Speaker 1: Villanova will be an interesting potential long shot.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk about them.

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Speaker 1: They get a lot of respect in the market, so

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if they'll have any value. But another

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Speaker 1: interesting weekend of parody across college basketball.

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Speaker 3: Micha.

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Speaker 1: Let me throw you any rants er take away from

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Speaker 1: the weekend that you want to mention, I just.

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Speaker 3: Regret that I didn't take Nova to upset Creighton because

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Speaker 3: I talked about so much in the opposite direction when

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Speaker 3: they went out to Omaha and brought up the historical

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Speaker 3: data on their rivalry their series. The home team always

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Speaker 3: wins in that series. But in terms of another takeaway,

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Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago we talked about Kansas. I

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Speaker 3: think we all agree we wrote off Kansas a little

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Speaker 3: too soon, but we also wrote off Tennessee, and I

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Speaker 3: think for good reason. In terms of actually winning the

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Speaker 3: national championship, I am this close to writing off Arizona

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Speaker 3: to win it all. This trip to LA where they

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Speaker 3: play USC and UCLA, and I think it's a Thursday

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Speaker 3: Saturday or Thursday Sunday back to back. This is it.

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Speaker 3: This is proven to me time because you lay an egg,

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Speaker 3: you know, on the farm playing against Stanford, which was

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Speaker 3: an awful loss. It was really a head scratcher. But

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Speaker 3: then to come back at home against Arizona State. I

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Speaker 3: understand that they make this a half quarter to win

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Speaker 3: the game, but even the fact that they were in

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Speaker 3: it the whole way, I just don't think they have

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Speaker 3: the killer instinct. I don't think they have the guard play.

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Speaker 3: They're not getting better on the perimeter, and as good

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Speaker 3: as to Bellis and Ballow are inside the arc, I

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Speaker 3: just don't see this team making a deep run. And

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Speaker 3: I think it's it's worth mentioning. It's like when is

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Speaker 3: Arizona really put it together in March madness this century?

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Speaker 3: So at this point, unless they go in and beat

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Speaker 3: the doors off of USC and then win convincingly against UCLA,

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Speaker 3: I'm out on Arizona to win at all.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't trust their guards either. By the way,

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Speaker 1: amazing shot by black chear off the wrong foot, but

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Speaker 1: if you're Arizona, you gotta miss that second free throw.

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Speaker 1: There was like one and a half what was there?

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Speaker 1: One and a half seconds left and you miss the first, right,

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Speaker 1: If you make the first, you've been trying to make

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Speaker 1: the second. But once you miss the first, they're not getting.

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Speaker 3: A two, right, So like matter, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: If they get a rebound there, then you're chucking it

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Speaker 1: ninety feet with one arm and it's not going in. Instead,

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Speaker 1: you get a running start from black Year. Obviously it's

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Speaker 1: a miraculous shot, but that thing looked pure from I

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Speaker 1: was watching it live and I was like, well, this

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Speaker 1: thing's you know, you have a split second your brain,

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Speaker 1: but I was like, this thing was heat seeking so pure,

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Speaker 1: What an amazing trying a march shot, a pre march

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Speaker 1: march shot for What a huge win for Arizona State.

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Speaker 3: But I agree that I think guards for Arizon.

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Speaker 1: I don't trust them to make a deep one to

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Speaker 1: win six games, BJA anything Any key takeaways on the

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Speaker 1: weekend other than what a win for Iowa.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, obviously wait win for Iowa.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I was very impressed with UCLA, Like

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Speaker 2: that was a very tough back to back. I understand

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Speaker 2: Utah hadn't have two of their best players, but going

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Speaker 2: back to back in the altitude trip and getting two

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Speaker 2: wins there, I mean, they are getting dangerously close to

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Speaker 2: the one line here with Purdue falling to Indiana. So

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Speaker 2: I'm starting to ask myself, is UCLA the best team

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Speaker 2: in the country with the off the court stuff going

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Speaker 2: on with Alabama? Kind of Obviously Houston still really good,

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Speaker 2: but they haven't been tested in a really long time.

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Speaker 2: So I'm starting to ask myself, does Mick Cronin have

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Speaker 2: a chance at winning the national title here? And being

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Speaker 2: on the one line and as far as a rant.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we say this every single year and it

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Speaker 2: just comes up.

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Speaker 4: But stop fouling when.

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Speaker 2: You're down eight or nine with them under thirty second left,

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Speaker 2: you're not coming back Texas and Baylor under one hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty nine. Again, this is another situation where I

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Speaker 2: was watching on my phone while driving, but Baylor was

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Speaker 2: up eight or up nine. With forty five seconds left.

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Speaker 2: Texas hits the three, they foul. Baylor then goes up ten.

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Speaker 2: Texas hits another three to go down seven. So I'm like,

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Speaker 2: oh gosh, here we go. They foul and Baylor misses

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Speaker 2: the first or makes the first, and this is the second,

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Speaker 2: and then Texas misses.

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Speaker 4: The three point.

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Speaker 2: There's twenty seconds left, they're down eight. Just let it go,

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Speaker 2: just let it go, it's over. But no, they foul.

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Speaker 2: Then Baylor makes one of two, so it's like, okay, well,

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Speaker 2: at least I'm still pushing here. Texas comes down. They

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Speaker 2: turn the ball over with eleven seconds left, and then

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Speaker 2: they still foul Baylor again, and so Baylor goes line,

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Speaker 2: makes two and Texas makes layup, and you have you're over.

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Speaker 2: Stop fouling down when you're not coming back. Over two

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Speaker 2: possessions and under thirty seconds left. Please, for the love

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Speaker 2: of God, it ruins everything. So that's my one big

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Speaker 2: ran of the week.

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Speaker 3: Go in and piggyback on that Ucla point that you

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Speaker 3: just made. By the way, Colorado one of the best

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Speaker 3: two point defenses in the Pac twelve. So it wasn't

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Speaker 3: a great matchup and situationally certainly not a good matchup

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Speaker 3: for UCLA. Not only did they get the win, but

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Speaker 3: they shot one for fourteen from three. And this is

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Speaker 3: someone we'll talk about more as we get towards marchivandez

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Speaker 3: can you win without making threes in modern college basketball?

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Speaker 3: Ucla obviously they can. But I think that just proves

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Speaker 3: it that. You know, some people may look at it

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Speaker 3: as I was a bad shooting night and they flirted

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Speaker 3: with being upset. I look at it from a positive standpoint,

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Speaker 3: seeing that they don't need those balls to drop and

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Speaker 3: if they do, if they do hit those trays, I

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Speaker 3: think they're going to be borderline unbeatable, particularly if they

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Speaker 3: end up on the one line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the mid range Missedically, they got two the great coach.

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Speaker 1: Two seniors have been to a Final four before. They

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Speaker 1: look like they're definitely gonna be a tough out come

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Speaker 1: tournament time. Yeah, let's move on. Let's just move right

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Speaker 1: into the conference tournaments. Let's start with the Atlantic Sun.

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Speaker 1: The Atlantic Sun, ten of the top fourteen teams qualified,

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Speaker 1: starts tonight. Then it'll zoom tomorrow, and then Thursday and

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Speaker 1: then Sunday will be the championship. The games are played

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Speaker 1: at the higher seeds. They do reseed before the semi finals.

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Speaker 1: Liberty is the favorite minus two to thirty ish my

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Speaker 1: True rocks where it's worth around minus two hundred, So

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Speaker 1: I don't see any value in Liberty, although they're clearly

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Speaker 1: the best team in the conference, very well coached with

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Speaker 1: their pack line defense. Darius mcgie is a flamethrower, can

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Speaker 1: go for forty or fifty any night. But the reason

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Speaker 1: they're not the one seedson because Kannessall State beat them.

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Speaker 1: They have the tiebreaker Kennesaw States plus three hundred, I

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Speaker 1: make them around plus three seventy. Amazing, amazing season for

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Speaker 1: Kennessall State and Abdoor Raheem, who's turned around that program

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Speaker 1: from I think two wins a couple of years ago

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Speaker 1: in his first season. Why that's important? Why Knnessaal State's

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Speaker 1: the one seed? Because if bellarmin or Queens wins this,

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Speaker 1: they're not eligible. The dumbest rule in all of college sports.

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Speaker 1: And this is what happened last year. Bollomy won it

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Speaker 1: and then the Jacksonville State ended up going because they

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Speaker 1: won the regular season. They the tiber They think they

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Speaker 1: won more games than Liberty. There was two one seeds

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Speaker 1: with the divisions, which is different this year. But there's Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Queen's and Beloan are not eligible and both the bell

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Speaker 1: means there. Their offense is I can't see them really

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Speaker 1: winning it. They're they're the defending champs, but you know

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Speaker 1: they might play Liberty in the second round and they

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Speaker 1: upset them last year in the tournament. They're no Penn

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Speaker 1: and they lost Penn and Fleming off last year's team,

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Speaker 1: and that their offenses is no working years good and

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Speaker 1: they still can't play defense. Stetson's offense Queen's offenses are

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Speaker 1: really scary, but neither played defense. So interesting tournament is

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Speaker 1: Liberty ripe for the picking is they're a long shot

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Speaker 1: to look at here, bj you had the task of

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Speaker 1: looking into the Atlantic sun?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, what do you got?

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Speaker 2: I I'll be honest, I'm not I mean, there's no way,

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Speaker 2: even with these conference tournaments, there's no way playing anybody

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Speaker 2: you know longer than minus two hundred to win some

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Speaker 2: of these tournaments, and less it's a very short tournament.

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Speaker 2: They're at home, and you can see a scenario where

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Speaker 2: they don't have an easy they have a very easy

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Speaker 2: path and they can eventually get to the final and

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Speaker 2: you can say, all right, they're going to be more

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Speaker 2: than minus two hundred. So that's the only argument I

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Speaker 2: would make for liberty here. But again, they're not going

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Speaker 2: to be on their home floor for the for the

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Speaker 2: title game, so playing them at minus two thirty, I

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Speaker 2: agree with you, is not the play here. I actually

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Speaker 2: do like a long shot and you can find them

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Speaker 2: at one hundred to one out there.

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Speaker 4: Queens. They're not gonna be able to make the NSA tournament.

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Speaker 2: But if you look at you know, shot quality, Queens

363
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Speaker 2: is third in adjusted efficiency in the a SUN and

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Speaker 2: they're graded as the best three point field goal defense

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Speaker 2: in the country in terms of the quality of looks

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Speaker 2: with three pointers that they allow.

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Speaker 4: But for some.

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Speaker 2: Reason, teams are just shooting ridiculously hot against them, and

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Speaker 2: this a SUN it's a very very.

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Speaker 4: High three point shooting league.

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Speaker 2: There's a ton of teams that, you know, I have

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Speaker 2: a three point rate over forty percent. They're gonna be

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Speaker 2: the nine seed. They're playing on Monday against Florida Gulf Coast.

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Speaker 2: They're an incredibly high variance team. They're very good in transition.

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Speaker 2: They you know, Queens shoots a ton of three point

376
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Speaker 2: but they're twenty fourth in the country in points for

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Speaker 2: possession allowed in half court sets. And if you look

378
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Speaker 2: around the A Sun with teams like Liberty and Stetson,

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Speaker 2: they tend to play slower and play in the half

380
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Speaker 2: court quite a bit. Plus, if they can get by

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Speaker 2: Florida Gulf Coast in this first game, they're gonna play

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Speaker 2: Kanessas State in their next matchup. They just beat Kanessas

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Speaker 2: State at their home floor to what was it two

384
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Speaker 2: weeks ago. And if you look throughout Queen's schedule, they've

385
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Speaker 2: had a lot of late game variants that's been incredibly unlucky.

386
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Speaker 2: They went seven and eleven in conference play. Ten of

387
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Speaker 2: those eleven losses came by ten points or less, so

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Speaker 2: at one hundred to one for what shock quality has

389
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Speaker 2: great as the third best team in the conference, who

390
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 2: is incredibly high variants, I love the upside from Queens.

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Speaker 2: I understand they can't make the NCAA tournament, but like

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, stucky, they're still motivated. If you saw what

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Speaker 2: happened with Bellarmine last year, you cannot tell me those

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Speaker 2: kids did not care about winning their conference tournament. So

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Speaker 2: at one hundred to one, I think it's a fantastic

396
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Speaker 2: price on a team that, if they can get hot,

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Speaker 2: has an tremendous offense. Who has Showman Bacon ups at

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Speaker 2: the top seeds in this tournament or in this conference.

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Speaker 2: So Queen's at one hundred to one for me is

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Speaker 2: where I'm going with They a sun.

401
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate that. I mean, look, they have

402
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Speaker 1: two awesome guards and Kenny Dye and HMQ or k

403
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Speaker 1: Pole going for thirty plus in any given night. So

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Speaker 1: when you have that, you know you're and there is

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Speaker 1: a lot of three point parents and Queens takes a

406
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Speaker 1: ton of threes. They play no defense whatsoever. They're gonna

407
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Speaker 1: have to win shootouts. The game against Florida Gulf Coast,

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Speaker 1: I think they're what a two to three point favorite.

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Speaker 3: The game they.

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Speaker 1: Played earlier this year at home, it was like eighty

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Speaker 1: four eighty two like that those are the type of

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Speaker 1: games that they played, you know, and that they face

413
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Speaker 1: up against. They have the athleticism go up against Kensall State,

414
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Speaker 1: they'll throw a press out there, which Connisallo State has

415
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 1: struggled with. Liberty beat them twice to end the year.

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Speaker 1: So Liberty plays a pack line defense and they have

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Speaker 1: the guards that can get hot from the outside. I

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Speaker 1: definitely don't hate it. And look, Liberty takes a ton

419
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Speaker 1: of threes too. They're tough. I think they're third nationally

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Speaker 1: in three point of temperary, so a lot of arians there.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't hate Queen's being this year's Bombing

422
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Speaker 1: because I don't think Bombing has a shot this year

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Speaker 1: with their offense. So yeah, I don't hate it. I

424
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Speaker 1: don't see any value in the top two seeds here,

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Speaker 1: So if you want to take a long shot, I

426
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Speaker 1: think Queens is the way to go with that backcourt.

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Speaker 1: Let's transition to the Patriot League. I know you're excited, Mike,

428
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Speaker 1: the talk to the Patriot League. This starts Tuesday tomorrow

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Speaker 1: for every twenty eighth, then Thursday, March second, then Sunday,

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Speaker 1: March fifth is the Semis, and Wednesday, March eight it's

431
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Speaker 1: a lot of breaks in between here. Unlike some other conferences,

432
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,120
Speaker 1: every game will be played at the higher seeds. Colgate

433
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 1: back to back champions are minus too twenty ish. This

434
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: has been a chalky, chalky conference tournament historically. I think

435
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 1: the first tournament was in nineteen ninety one. The top

436
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: two seeds have won it in twenty nine of thirty

437
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: two seasons. The only exceptions were twenty twenty Boston was

438
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,119
Speaker 1: the three seed, COVID year twenty sixteen or twenty fifteen

439
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 1: la Fe was the four seed. The only like crazy

440
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 1: upset was twenty sixteen Holy US as a number nine seed.

441
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 1: Otherwise it's been like top one or two seeds basically

442
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 1: every year for thirty years. Maybe two seed plus two

443
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,439
Speaker 1: seventy ish as. Always make sure you shop around when

444
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,959
Speaker 1: you're betting conference tournament odds, because you could find quite

445
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 1: a bit of difference in you know, every cent matters,

446
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: but you can find plus three hundred here plus we

447
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 1: could do there.

448
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 3: Make sure you shop around. Have a bunch of outs.

449
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 1: So Colgate clearly the favorite. I have them like eighty

450
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 1: five percent to make the final, and it's a pretty

451
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: easy path for them. Michae let me throw it to you.

452
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: I know you dug in to your beloved Patriot League.

453
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 1: What do you see in there? Any upsets? Is Colgates

454
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 1: to lose? Is it lay the Chucks at Stay Away?

455
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 1: What's the breakdown here?

456
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 3: Is a coronation for Colgate? You know? And minus two twenty.

457
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 3: I think there's still value, shockingly, because they're going to

458
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 3: play at home. They're going to not have to play

459
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 3: those back to back to backs like other conference tournaments.

460
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 3: They're one hundred and seventeenth in Ken Palm overall. The

461
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,359
Speaker 3: next closest team is Navy at one hundred and seventy six.

462
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: They're fifty fourth overall in Ken Palm offense. But when

463
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 3: you dig into their numbers, their first nationally in effective

464
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 3: field goal percentage at fifty eight percent first and three

465
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 3: point percentage, And then you look at how they perform

466
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 3: at home. They're eleven and two this year straight up

467
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,440
Speaker 3: at home, and it's a bad year for them. They're

468
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 3: thirty four and four at home since twenty twenty. Tucker

469
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 3: richardson if somebody can go off. He gave Syracuse thirty

470
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 3: thirty earlier this season in a road upset. All five

471
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 3: starters average double digits but really it comes down to

472
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 3: the fact that they've been able to keep one of

473
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: the best mid major coaches in all of college basketball

474
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: in Hamilton, New York. I don't understand how they keep

475
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 3: Matt Langele there, but this guy is an absolute offensive genius.

476
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 3: He went to the Wardens off Business. I mean, he

477
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 3: went to play to Penn Penn Business School. Like just

478
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 3: an incredible coach. Three time Patriot League Coach of the Year.

479
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 3: He's probably going to hit number four this year. Perfect system.

480
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 3: And then when you look at what they've done against

481
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 3: their main competition, they swept maybe they swept Army, they

482
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 3: swept Lee High. So other than a fluky loss at

483
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 3: American where they shot forty one percent, they basically been

484
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 3: unbeatable in Patriot League play. So when I look down

485
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 3: the board, like there's reasons to like Navy, I mean,

486
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 3: they started eight and ten straight up, and then they

487
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 3: turned it around, went ten to two. They nearly upset

488
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 3: Colgate in Knaptown. You know, at the end of the season,

489
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 3: they're tops in Patriot League play in points per game, defense,

490
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 3: field goal percentage, defense, turnover margin. They're solid. They're an

491
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 3: absolute solid team, and they have five seniors in their

492
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 3: starting lineup, so you know you're gonna get a consistent,

493
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: strong effort out of the midshipman. But I still think

494
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 3: that this number, at least it would have to be

495
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 3: four to one are better in my opinion, So plus

496
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 3: two to seventy is a pass for me. I really

497
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 3: just don't like Army at eleven to one in Ken Palm.

498
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 3: They're pretty much unimpressive on both ends, and I think

499
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 3: that's fair. If you watch them play, they can't get

500
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 3: offensive boards because their size issues. They turn it over

501
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 3: too much. They're two hundred and eighty first from the

502
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 3: foul line, So even if you get yourself in kind

503
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 3: of a rock fight with Colegate, are you going to

504
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 3: win that game at the line? Probably not Lehigh. I think,

505
00:22:58,560 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 3: you know they have a lot of issues on the

506
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 3: I like their backcourt a lot, Higgins Junior, Taylor and

507
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 3: Whitney Sidney, but in general, they just can't shoot. Other

508
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 3: than Higgins Taylor both shoot over forty percent from three.

509
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 3: They got rocked twice by Colgate. This is this entire

510
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 3: tournament runs through Colgate. So if you have no chance

511
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 3: at beating the Red Raiders, why are you even throwing

512
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 3: you know, a long shot at sixteen to one. I'll

513
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,959
Speaker 3: throw out two here if you're interested to maybe recoup

514
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:24,959
Speaker 3: some value from a hedge perspective that they can make

515
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 3: it to the Semis or have a dream run to

516
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 3: the finals. American and eighty to one kind of piques

517
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 3: my interest. I mean, they beat Colgate once, you know,

518
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 3: down in DC, and they took them to the wire

519
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 3: the other time. They're three hundred and fifty seventh in pace,

520
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 3: so they are going to try to win in a

521
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 3: different way from how Colgate wants to play. They have

522
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 3: two solid bigs, you know, Matt Rodgers and Johnny O'Neil

523
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 3: are solid. They could score they you know, they really

524
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 3: make them efficient. They're twenty second nationally in effective field

525
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 3: goal percentage. They're really strong near the basket. Eighty to one,

526
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 3: I think it's it's worth the roll of the dice.

527
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: Then finally, I'll throw a shout out to Mike Greyhounds

528
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 3: two hundred to one, loyal marilnd Gray four to one

529
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 3: down the stretch straight up, they split with Navy and

530
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 3: Lee High, so there's a chance for them, if everything

531
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 3: goes right, to maybe make a run to the finals.

532
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 3: They were within six of Colgate at their place with

533
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 3: four to go. And then finally the difference maker has

534
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 3: been freshman Dion Perry. This kid is a five foot

535
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: eight point guard. His minutes have increased as the season's

536
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: gone on. He's blown up down the stretch in that

537
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: you know, last five games, averaging over twenty points per game,

538
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 3: just one point six turnovers per game, and shooting forty

539
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 3: six percent from long range. So a shout out to

540
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 3: the star from our lady and Mount Carmel in Baltimore.

541
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 3: That's as best as I can do for any team

542
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 3: outside of Colgate trying to throw a little lipstick on

543
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 3: this pig. It's going to be the Raiders taking this

544
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: all the way to the tournament. If they end up

545
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: on the fifteen line, as Bracket Matrix is predicting, that's

546
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 3: bad news for a two seed. I think this is

547
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: a thirteen or fourteen seed in terms of overall quality.

548
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 3: But you know, Bracket Matrix does a great job agregating

549
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: every bracket out there on the internet. There have very

550
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 3: high hit rate on hitting the exact seed, So keep

551
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 3: Colgate circled on your bracket when they came out. They

552
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 3: could ruin a lot of dreams. Yeah.

553
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Colgate is dangerous because they can shoot.

554
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: I mean they're number one in the country three point

555
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 1: percentage of close to forty one percent. They run wonderful

556
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: offense of their defense, They're not going to get any stops.

557
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: They're good on the defensive glass, but they're hot from three.

558
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: They can give someone trouble. I'm going to make a

559
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 1: case for Navy and not because not to bet them

560
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: as a future. I don't think there's any value in

561
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: the number have a plus two to seventy.

562
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: I agree with you, like four or five five to

563
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 3: one to.

564
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: Bet them, because I think if you go money line

565
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: rollover projected spreads here, if Colgate gets to the final,

566
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 1: a money line rollover, you're looking at And to keep

567
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: this in mind, if you want to do this match,

568
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,719
Speaker 1: sometimes there's more value in the potential money line rollover

569
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,239
Speaker 1: than the actual future. It gives you flexibility. Now, there

570
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 1: could be a big upset and then that's why you

571
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: wouldn't want to do it. But if Colgate gets to

572
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: the final, look at five six to one on a

573
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 1: Navy money line rollover. If not, if Colgate somehow gets upset,

574
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: then you're looking at like plus two fifty, so like

575
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 1: why take plus two seventy And one of you mentioned

576
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: Navy seniors and these saies are going to zwen seven

577
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 1: against Navy. I loved Navy on Saturday. Unfortunately their captain

578
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: and one of their starters was out at Yoda and

579
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: he's important for forty percent three point shooter kind of

580
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 1: the blue guy team captain. He was ruled out. He

581
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: like banged up his shoulder at the end of the

582
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: previous game. I don't know if he's gonna play. So

583
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 1: I would wait on Navy and then if you want,

584
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 1: like do a money line rollover if you like Navy,

585
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 1: because but I personally would just say, wait to see

586
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: if Yoda plays, and then you could take Navy to

587
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 1: beat Kolgate. If it gets there, like you're not gonna

588
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: get that far off of a price, then their future

589
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 1: from a moneyline perspective, then you'll see if Yoda is healthy.

590
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 3: Because Navy.

591
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: Since do you mention how improved they were, and I

592
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 1: mentioned this in the podcast last week. They you know,

593
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: they lost to Holy Cross, then they beat them by eighteen.

594
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: They lost the Lehigh and they beat them by twelve.

595
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 3: They lost the Lafe.

596
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: Ha have them, beat them by nineteen, lost the Lotel

597
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: Marylon beat them by twelve, lost to American beat them

598
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: by sixteen. Why their defense has improved astronomically since January fifteenth.

599
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: They're a top twenty five defense adjusted for opponent nationally.

600
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: Up to that point, they were outside the top three hundred.

601
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 1: You're talking about a defensive just per opponent that went

602
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: from outide the top three hundred to inside the top

603
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:30,239
Speaker 1: twenty five.

604
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 3: I think they're like twenty fifth.

605
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: So their defense has been amazing. They'd I'm proved significant.

606
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: They have all this senior leadership, and even without Yoda,

607
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: they got down big against Koga and they almost came back,

608
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 1: had a shot the tire win late and just couldn't

609
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 1: get there. So, yeah, if you like Navy, I think

610
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: Navy's gonna get to the final. But if Yoda is

611
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: not healthy. And here's the thing why, I also don't

612
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: like the future with Navies because higher seeds host So

613
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: if they get to the final, you're talking about two

614
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: home games. Navy is the I have them with the

615
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 1: lowest home court advantage in all of college basketball, So

616
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: like it's not a huge deal to like they get

617
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 1: up there. They they're better off on the road. Like

618
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,479
Speaker 1: there's just no home court advantage for them, so like

619
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 1: they get two own games, who cares, it's the Patriot League.

620
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 1: Like home court Colgate is a pretty good home court advantage.

621
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: But some of these other plays, like Navy has you know,

622
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: Buck values stab it for when they were really good.

623
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: But you know, Navy has no home court advantage, so

624
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: that I like them if they get to the final,

625
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: Yoda's healthy and you can maybe take a stab there,

626
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 1: but them playing at home and you know, the way

627
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: they want to play, they could easily get upset like

628
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: they did when they were one seed a couple years ago.

629
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: So look out for Navy in that defense, which is

630
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: playing amazing, But keep your eye on Yoda. I don't

631
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: see any value in it. If you want to back

632
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: the mids go money line roll over or just wait,

633
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: because I do think Colgate is gonna get to the

634
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: final and then we'll see if Navy can get their

635
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: revenge like they have against every other team that they

636
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: lost too early in the season. As a reminder before

637
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: we go any further, college basketball season is in full swing,

638
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,320
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646
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647
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648
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,880
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649
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,800
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650
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651
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652
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653
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654
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,600
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655
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,680
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656
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,520
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657
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,880
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658
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,959
Speaker 1: and why. In New York call it text the Tennessee

659
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,800
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660
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,960
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661
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,120
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662
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,400
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663
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,920
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664
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,600
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665
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: advisor free charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii

666
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: and Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not

667
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: available in Nevada. In New York, All right, good stuff

668
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: on the Patriot League. Let's move to the we want

669
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 1: to go fun Belt, Let's go Sun Belt BJ.

670
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 3: Bring you in here.

671
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 1: All tournament games here are played in Pensacola, Florida. Starts Tuesday,

672
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: resumes Thursday, then Saturday, Sunday Monday. Top four seeds get

673
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: double buys into the quarters at Southern miss JMU Louisiana

674
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: and Marshall BJ. What do you see here from a

675
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: value perspective, it's gonna be tough for these lower seeds

676
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: that would have to win Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday

677
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 1: in Pensacola.

678
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: What's the read here?

679
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: Yeah?

680
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 4: I think that.

681
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be playing two and I think it's

682
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 2: a way to at least get a four to one

683
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: shot into the championship game where you can hedge and

684
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 2: it's going to be James Madison at four to one

685
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 2: in Southern miss at plus four to seventy. So James

686
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: Madison I think is the best team in this conference,

687
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: even though they're sitting at the four seed. They're the

688
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: number one team in the conference and shot selection open

689
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: three point rate, second in points for possession in rim

690
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 2: and three point shots. They also get to the free

691
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 2: throw line at an incredibly high rate. And most importantly,

692
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 2: they're the number one defense in the conference or excuse me,

693
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: the number one offense in the conference. In points for

694
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: possession and half court sets. They went twelve and six

695
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: in conference play, only one of those losses was by

696
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: ten points or less. Defensive side of the ball, that

697
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 2: they're a top one hundred adjusted defensive efficiency team, top

698
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: twenty five in turnover rate, number one team in the

699
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: conference in defending. In transition, they'll likely be playing Troy

700
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 2: in their first matchup.

701
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 4: If Troy gets by Coastal.

702
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 2: Carolina or Arkansas State, it's a really good matchup for

703
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 2: them because Troy turns of all over a ton, they

704
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 2: shoot a ton of threes, and they're only shooting around

705
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 2: thirty one percent from behind the arc. And then it'll

706
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 2: likely be either Southern Miss or Southern Alabama. Now, the

707
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: Southern Miss case is very interesting. They were on a

708
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: nine game win streak during sun Bell play, so they're

709
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: the number one seed. But I think why you're seeing

710
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 2: them at plus four seventy is because they just lost

711
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: by thirty one to South Alabama two weeks ago at

712
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: South Alabama and had their worst.

713
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 4: Shooting game of the season. So the price for me

714
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 4: is a little awake.

715
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at shot quality and Kenpom,

716
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: Southern Miss is still second in this conference an adjusted

717
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: efficiency differential. They're a very well rounded offense that doesn't

718
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 2: have a lot of weaknesses, and the defensive side of

719
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 2: ball they're very good. But they have this one main

720
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 2: weakness is they're a really, really bad defensive rebounding team. Well,

721
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 2: if you look at the conference, the top five offensive

722
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 2: rebounding teams are on the other side of the bracket,

723
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 2: so they're not going to face a team that's going

724
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: to exploit that weakness. Southern Miss also twenty seventh in

725
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 2: the nation in points for possession allowed at the rim,

726
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 2: they're seventeenth and forcing teams into bad shot selection twenty

727
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: first and open three point rate allowed. So if they

728
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: can get by South Alabama, which I believe they can,

729
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 2: it's a good revenge spot for them, and they play

730
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 2: James Madison in the semis, I think you can get

731
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 2: a four to one shot into the final, which actually

732
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: has a good opportunity.

733
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 4: Against Marshall Louisiana, who you know.

734
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: I know Marshall's been your bogie team this year, stucky,

735
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 2: but they've obviously run pretty well. I think that's how

736
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna play this and potentially set up a good

737
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 2: hatch spot because even if one of those two teams

738
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 2: gets to the final, I don't see a scenario where

739
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 2: they're gonna be more than a two or three point

740
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: underdog against Marshall.

741
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: Against Marshall Louisiana.

742
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: So it's important to shop around here because some prices

743
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: are out of whack. The best price you can find

744
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 2: on James Madison right now is four to one, and

745
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: the best price you can find on Southern miss is

746
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: plus four seventy.

747
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 4: So I think that's how I'm gonna play the fun Belt.

748
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,719
Speaker 1: Well, I'm gonna make good stuff there. I'm gonna make

749
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: a case. I agree on Marshall. I finally got them

750
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: with Old Dominion on Friday the Thundering Herd. I mean

751
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,239
Speaker 1: they'll both do what three yeah, three games in three days? No,

752
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: they double bye, but they had no depth late in

753
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 1: the season. Three games in three days, they're backwards excellent.

754
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 1: They'd like to get on transition. They have to. They'll

755
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 1: probably have to face Old Dominion potentially first too.

756
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,280
Speaker 3: It's not a great matchup.

757
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: Old Dominion to just beat them, slow the game down,

758
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: keep them out of transition.

759
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 3: They're great against pick and roll.

760
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a case of South Alabama since they're

761
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: coming into the season. They were bottom twenty minutes continuity

762
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 1: per Kempond. They a lot of brand new pieces. Richie

763
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: Riley have a lot of respect for took them some time,

764
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 1: even though you saw the potential early this season. This

765
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: is a team that played Bama tough, lost by ten.

766
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: They went to New Mexico, lost by six, went to Oklahoma,

767
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 1: lost by four. This is their first four games and

768
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 1: they kind of lost the plot they're trying to figure out,

769
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: especially on the defensive end, and then they really turned

770
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: it on their number one in momentum Metric per Hazle

771
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: Metrics in the country. They were blowing teams out down

772
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 1: the stretch. They lost their finale, but they have a

773
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: lot of the They're playing with a ton of confidence

774
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: right now. Since January first, their number seventy three nationally

775
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 1: in adjusted efficiency and the second best team in the conference.

776
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: The only team better since January first Louisiana barely. They're

777
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: at sixty seven. Pre January first, South ABENMA is one

778
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty fifth and the seventh best team in

779
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: the conference.

780
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 3: So it makes sense.

781
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 1: Richie Realley, great coach, really started to figure out that

782
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: defense and they actually finished number one in effective field

783
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,720
Speaker 1: goal percentage on both offense and defense in league play.

784
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: And look, they swept jam you. They went seven to

785
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: three against the Seeds in the top half, and one

786
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 1: of the losses was a bad loss to Coastal who

787
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: was probably out in the first round. So yeah, I think, Look,

788
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: they have an excellent transition d great pick and roll defense,

789
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 1: which is key if they get to Marshall in the final.

790
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 1: And Marshall they don't have any depth, But Southern Miss

791
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 1: doesn't have any depth either. That's the one thing that

792
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 1: I'm really worried. Excuse me, South Abma doesn't have any

793
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: depth either. Their bottom twenty, Isaiah Moore just plays a

794
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: ton of minutes.

795
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 3: He's the study. He's gonna have to be big here.

796
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: So if they get to the final, which is really

797
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: when you would worry about their legs, you know, maybe

798
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: they're matched up against Marshall. Marshall doesn't have any legs either,

799
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 1: so they have to win one extra game, which makes

800
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 1: it tough.

801
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: You can find a ten to one.

802
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 1: I think South Alina has all the momentum and like

803
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: just the improvement I don't think is necessarily being priced

804
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 1: into the market. But the path definitely won't be easy,

805
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: but the fun Belt worth a shot. I'm gonna go

806
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 1: with the Jags. Mike, you got anything on the fun Belt.

807
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 1: I like D'Antoni in general.

808
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 3: I like the programmer runs, like the system when they

809
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 3: made their run to the tournament. I'm trying to remember

810
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 3: who they upset in March Madness, but they were four

811
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 3: seed in that Converce USA tournament before winning the automatic bid.

812
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 3: So he's not someone who necessarily goes wired to wire

813
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 3: in the regular season. Is a team that can get hot.

814
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 3: I love their guard play Taylor and Kinsey. I agree

815
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 3: with your your notes on their overall depth and how

816
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 3: that impacts them in the conference tournament bracket lay out

817
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 3: the way that they have it playing those back to

818
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,240
Speaker 3: back to back games, But in general, I think Marshall

819
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 3: will probably be my play here out of the Sun Belt.

820
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they beat well Wichita State in twenty nineteen.

821
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 3: That was Elmore West.

822
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: I love that team. They were fun and then they

823
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: lost to I think they played West Virginia in the

824
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: second round, which is the make up blown out but

825
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 1: with a fun interstate rivalry. All right, let's go into

826
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: our final conference tournament of the episode. Let's talk some Horizon.

827
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 3: Now.

828
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: We mentioned earlier that the Patriot League has been historically

829
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 1: very very chalky since its exception in nineteen ninety one.

830
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 3: Not the case with the Horizon le.

831
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: Horizon League seemed quite a bit of chaos, and just

832
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 1: when I think of rising, I think of crazy games,

833
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: crazy endings. There always seems to just be awesome games

834
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 1: and just musty TV. I think, like last year, two

835
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: years ago, like the Rizon Tournament was the best conference tournament.

836
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,720
Speaker 1: Like just every game there was like triple overtime, double overtime.

837
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: All eleven teams make it top five seeds to get

838
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 1: a bye. This starts Tuesday, resumes Thursday, then Monday Tuesday.

839
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 1: First round of quarters are at the higher seas. Them

840
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 1: were on too Indianapolis for the semis and finals. E Mike,

841
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 1: what do you see here in the horizon? Expect more chaos? Yeah,

842
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: you te this up properly. If you're looking for a

843
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: wacky conference tournament, this is the one. I'll start at

844
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: the top. You know, I basically called my shot in January.

845
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: I thought that Youngstown was gonna win this thing. They're

846
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: gonna win the regular season, they were gonna win the

847
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: automatic bid. It's gonna be hard because defensively they're two

848
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty seventh in Ken Palm's Adjusted defensive metric.

849
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 3: But offensively this team can really cook. Eighty two points

850
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 3: per game. They got four starters averaging over thirteen points

851
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 3: per game. They're one of I want to say, six

852
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 3: teams in the entire country that can claim that Dwayne

853
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 3: Cohill is incredible. Eighteen and five per game on forty

854
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 3: six zero point two percent shooting from long range. As

855
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 3: a team, there's sixth in shooting efficiency this defense though,

856
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: like beyond just the Ken Pom number when you start

857
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 3: to really dig into it, three hundred and tenth and

858
00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 3: opponent shooting percentage. So they win this thing going away.

859
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 3: They could score eighty ninety points in every game and

860
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: comfortably win. They could also lose in their very first game,

861
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 3: because when you look at how they performed against the

862
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 3: top of the Rising League, it's wide open. They split

863
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 3: against Milwaukee, they split against Cleveland State, and they split

864
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 3: against Northern Kentucky. Although the one loss was an overtime loss.

865
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: That kind of sets the stage for Okay, this is

866
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 3: wide open. Let's get into who could potentially knock off

867
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 3: the Penguins.

868
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:26,479
Speaker 1: Before you keep going. I just to set the stage down.

869
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: Youngstown is the favorite there, but I mean depending on

870
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: the book, but like plus one seventy five ish, then

871
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 1: you have Northern Kentucky, Cleveland State, next four to one,

872
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: Right State next six, seven to one, then Milwaukee ten

873
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: to one, Detroit eighteen to one, and then you're kind

874
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: of down into some longer shots.

875
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, so you're gonna want to shop around for

876
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,720
Speaker 3: the best number. It's as you know, low as plus

877
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 3: three thirty on Cleveland State and Northern Kentucky as high

878
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 3: as you know, four to one, So you want to

879
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 3: make sure you get the best there. Neither of these

880
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 3: teams wowue Cleveland State or Northern Kentucky on the offensive end.

881
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 3: Cleveland State awful from long range, which doesn't sound great

882
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 3: if you get in a shootout with Young saun State.

883
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 3: They rely a ton on Tristan in Aruna. He's a

884
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 3: really strong big for the Netherlands. He's averaged fifteen and

885
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 3: almost seven rebounds per game. As a team, they're far

886
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 3: and away the best offensive rebounding team in the Horizon,

887
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 3: which is critical because not being able to pump in

888
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 3: shots from three point range, you wanted to get second

889
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 3: chance opportunities. They've played really well, you know, in Aruna,

890
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 3: and the Vikings in general played great down the stretch

891
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 3: six and one straight up with wins over Youngstown in

892
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 3: Northern Kentucky. So of this two pack, the Vikings and

893
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,359
Speaker 3: the Norse, I'm going to go with the Vikings here.

894
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 3: Northern Kentucky they concern me a little bit. They were,

895
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 3: in my opinion, leaking oil down the stretch. Their last

896
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 3: four games against quality Horizon League opponents, they lost, most

897
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,240
Speaker 3: of those were on the road. Marquez work has been special,

898
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 3: but I think he's just a step behind, you know,

899
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 3: the Tray Calvins and co Hills of this conference. You know,

900
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 3: in terms of his overall shooting, he's over forty percent

901
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: three points, averaging nineteen points per game. But I still

902
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: don't think he quite has that killer instinct to put

903
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 3: the entire team on his back. The one thing that

904
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 3: is good about Northern Kentucky from a game to game

905
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,439
Speaker 3: basis is they have one of the highest turnover rates

906
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 3: in the nation. They really make it difficult on you,

907
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 3: and they play at one of the slowest tempos, so

908
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 3: those turnovers are just more valuable for a team like

909
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 3: they are. They get killed on the offensive glass though,

910
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 3: and for playing on the zone. Yeah, so they're deep

911
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 3: into three hundreds in both of those metrics. You mentioned it. Milwaukee,

912
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 3: even though they're the two seed in this tournament, they're

913
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 3: ten to one to win it, and I think it's

914
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 3: pretty simple to advanced metrics hate this team. They're two

915
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty second and kempom offense, two hundred and

916
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 3: twenty ninth in defense. They get also get killed on

917
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 3: the offensive glass. They turn it over way way too much,

918
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 3: three hundred and fifty seventh nationally. That to me is

919
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 3: enough for it to be a pass. I know that

920
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 3: BJ Freeman's their go to guy, but he's been disappointing

921
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 3: down the stretch and losses to Youngstown and Robert Morris

922
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 3: both road blowouts. So not in on the Panthers going

923
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: to pass there. Let's get into long shots that I love.

924
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 3: Wright State plus seven to fifty, you can get them

925
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 3: out there in the market and Detroit Mercy eighteen to one.

926
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 3: Let's start with Detroit Mercy at eighteen to one. It's

927
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 3: no surprise they do it all on the offense to

928
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 3: then they got a one to two punch with Antoine Davis,

929
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 3: the three point king of college basketball and Jared Liddell.

930
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,879
Speaker 3: Ladell's a fifteen to ten big, which is great for them,

931
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 3: gives them a little insight outside balance. They're fifty third

932
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 3: in adjusted offense efficiency by Ken Pump, and I'll just

933
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:19,879
Speaker 3: do it a quick whisper of three hundred and forty

934
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 3: seventh in defense. So yes, they could shoot their way

935
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 3: past just about anybody in this tournament. There's six and

936
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: three point shooting percentage nationally. But then you look on

937
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 3: the other side, three hundred and forty fifth and three

938
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 3: point percentage defense. Could they beat Youngstown if they got

939
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 3: to a meeting with them. Absolutely, They lost by five.

940
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 1: Justin a shootout and got they gotta win like ninety

941
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 1: to eighty seven, exactly.

942
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 3: They lost by five at home, eighty four to seventy nine.

943
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 3: It was a two point game with twenty seconds left.

944
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 3: So yes, it's possible they could also lose in the

945
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 3: first round by twenty points. I wouldn't bat nye Wright State.

946
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 3: I like a little bit better. This is my true

947
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 3: long shot that I'm gonna end up playing in this

948
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 3: conference tournament. They got Trake Calvin, They got a chance.

949
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 3: The guys flirted with a ninety to fifty forty line

950
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 3: all season long and credible shooter. He scored forty four

951
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 3: at a triple overtime loss at Youngstown. They got wins

952
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 3: over Milwaukee. They got a blowout win over Northern Kentucky.

953
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 3: But here's the key for me. There's second in the

954
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 3: conference in road records straight up at seven and seven.

955
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 3: So their their team basketball travels is not just Trey

956
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 3: Calvin show. They can do this if everything breaks right,

957
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 3: I think the price is just about right. I'd love

958
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 3: to get at eight to one if I could, but

959
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 3: anything north of plus seven to fifty I think is interesting.

960
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: They're not great defensively, but they can rebound on the

961
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 3: defensive ends. You know, a team rebounding element I think

962
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,359
Speaker 3: helps them. So in a conference that to your point,

963
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 3: historically it's been wide open, you should have at least

964
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 3: one long shot chambered. I'm going to go with the

965
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 3: Raiders here.

966
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 1: I don't even think you realize you said during your

967
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: your push that if everything breaks right and the price

968
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 1: is right for Right State, I don't know if you

969
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 1: caught that.

970
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 3: But I'm going to go with Detroit here. This is it's.

971
00:43:53,880 --> 00:44:00,280
Speaker 1: All about chaos. Why not back Antoine Davis, who who

972
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 1: is sixty three points away from being the NCAA all

973
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 1: time scoring leader, sixty three points away for Pete Maravich

974
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: eighteen to one I think that's the bat. I gotta

975
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 1: shop around and see before I lock this in, but

976
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 1: I know that there's an eighteen to one out there

977
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 1: and they so let's look at their path, right, and

978
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 1: you mentioned it, they're kind of like Youngstown Light you

979
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: have like co Hill, but their offenses this is a

980
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 1: top eighty offense, no defense, sort of like Youngstown State,

981
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 1: young Son State, just like a step above. But you

982
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: mentioned it, they could they could beat Youngstown in just

983
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: a complete shoot up, just two teams that play no defense,

984
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 1: look like an NBA game, and we have a regular

985
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: season game. But they first get Fort Wayne, who they

986
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 1: swept during the regular season, and then we get Youngstown,

987
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 1: who I think that they could win this year. You're

988
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: talking about an eighteen to one shot. Then you're an Indy,

989
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 1: and then you're either gonna get Oakland or Northern Kentucky,

990
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: two teams to play a ton of zone, zone heavy defenses,

991
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: and Detroit zone offense is elite ninety percentile per Synergy. Yeah,

992
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: Vantowine basously would go for you know, fifty, seriously, fifty

993
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: against the zone. And then who are you gonna face

994
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:08,919
Speaker 1: in the final, like Milwaukee, Milwaukee. I I've Detroit power

995
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 1: rated ahead of Milwaukee. I would have him favored in

996
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 1: that game. Cleveland State be close to a pick for me,

997
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:15,839
Speaker 1: so Wright State.

998
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 3: I agree.

999
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 1: Scared, there's a reason why despite the ranking. But yeah,

1000
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,399
Speaker 1: then then they're in the final. Like the path isn't

1001
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 1: that bad? Now they could lose in the first round easily,

1002
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: easily because doesn't show up. Davis is an off day.

1003
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 1: But they're eighteen to one in the Chaos Conference. Give me,

1004
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,919
Speaker 1: give me Detroit. I'm riding with Davis one last time.

1005
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 1: All right, Uh, yeah, you gotta have fun in the horizon.

1006
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 1: You gotta take a shot in the horizon. And hopefully

1007
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: if Davis wins, if they beat Fort Wayne and then

1008
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,399
Speaker 1: you get Youngstown in an absolute shootout, I think he'll

1009
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 1: break he's six, it'll be close. If they don't beat Youngstown,

1010
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: somebody's sixty three away. Yeah, it's gonna be close.

1011
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 3: It'll be close. I mean he's gonna take if he

1012
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 3: plays those two games, he's gonna take forty five shots.

1013
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 3: So yeah, you have every opportunity to go past.

1014
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not gonna get it in the first game

1015
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: they leaves, but the chance he gets in two and yeah,

1016
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 1: that Young's down Detroit game would be must see TV total.

1017
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 3: I don't know what one hundred and sixty eight something

1018
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 3: like that. I'm going over just auto over on that one.

1019
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 1: There is Yeah, there's now like they could come out,

1020
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 1: you could.

1021
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 3: Now.

1022
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: The thing is with the Troy and the thing with

1023
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: young Sounds, who was like their defense is bad. They

1024
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: don't really play any defense. So maybe like just effort wise,

1025
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 1: their defense gets a little better because the offense is there.

1026
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,959
Speaker 1: So maybe there's some upside for both of those teams there.

1027
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 1: But I just don't see there's any value with Youngstown.

1028
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 1: But I think that there might be given the price,

1029
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: and you have the best player at the conference, So yeah,

1030
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: give me Detroit. There all right, good stuff going through

1031
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: the four conferences, the best time of the year. The

1032
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 1: madness is here. But we have one final task at

1033
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 1: hand for today and that's tonight's card. BJ Let me

1034
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:58,720
Speaker 1: throw it to you. What do you have circled for tonight?

1035
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go the Baylor Oklahoma State under at one

1036
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 2: hundred and forty one and a half. Keyance George is

1037
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 2: out for this game, which is a big loss for

1038
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 2: Baylor considering he's averaging seventeen points. But he's also taking

1039
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 2: thirty percent of their shots when he's on the floor.

1040
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 2: And the thing about Baylor is they have tremendous scorers

1041
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 2: all over.

1042
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 4: For they're number one in shot quality.

1043
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 2: Shot making metric, but they're two hundred and seventy fourth

1044
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 2: in the country in terms of shot selection. So losing

1045
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 2: one of your best shot makers when you're already not

1046
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 2: getting consistent shot good shots, it's he becomes a problem.

1047
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: The other problem is also a good facilitator too right,

1048
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 1: exactly very good.

1049
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,879
Speaker 2: Baylor is a very high frequency pick and roll team.

1050
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 2: Everything starts to George at the top through their pick

1051
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 2: and roll. Oklahoma State very good at defending pick and

1052
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 2: roll sixty second nationally and points possession allowed. The previous

1053
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,319
Speaker 2: meeting they held, they held Baylor to just zero point

1054
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 2: nine to one points for possession on pick and.

1055
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 4: Roll sets Baylor.

1056
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 2: They're also shooting the lights out from beyond the ark

1057
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,959
Speaker 2: and conference by thirty seven point five percent Oklahoma State

1058
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,399
Speaker 2: number one team in the conference and open three point

1059
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 2: rate allowed. The flip side is Oklahoma State's offense has

1060
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 2: been pretty lackluster this season. They're ninth in the Big

1061
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 2: Twelve inn adjusted offensive efficiency. They're only shooting thirty one

1062
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 2: percent from behind the arc and conference play, and that's

1063
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 2: where forty percent of their field will attempts come from.

1064
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 2: So Baylor's only allowing thirty one percent from beyond the arc.

1065
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 2: They're eighth in the country in points per possession allowed

1066
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,800
Speaker 2: in half court sets, and Baylor does tend to play

1067
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,840
Speaker 2: a slower paced ninth in adjusted tempo. Oklahoma State is six.

1068
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 2: So with George being out, with everything running through him

1069
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 2: in their offense, I like the value under one hundred

1070
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 2: and forty one and a half.

1071
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go just a piggyback off that.

1072
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with Oklahoma State catching one and

1073
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: a half too. I think you might be able to

1074
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 1: find out there about that last long But look, this

1075
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 1: Baylor team is going to be danger's in March because

1076
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: of their guards and you know, the three headed monster.

1077
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 1: But George is out for this game. But you look

1078
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: at what they've done on the rug. Right, they lost

1079
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: by double just Kansas State. They lost by double digitsa Kansas.

1080
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 1: They beat TCU in a game that TCU was severely

1081
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 1: shorthanded and had a chance to still win that game.

1082
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 1: Before then you know, they lost to Text they beat

1083
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 1: Oklahoma by two in a game they were trailing late.

1084
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: You know, they lost to They got blown out by

1085
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: Iowa State. They came back to beat West Virginian in

1086
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: again they were trailing late. They got blown out by

1087
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: Marquette on the road. Like that's their entire body of

1088
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 1: work on the road this year. And why have they

1089
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 1: struggled on the road. Their defense, Their defense is there's

1090
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: a lot of holes, especially at the rim, and that's

1091
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 1: where Oklahoma State. This is just a complete bilo spot. Now, look,

1092
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: they might need to win. Don't use that as a

1093
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 1: reason to bet a team in college basketball. A lot

1094
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 1: of times you see this NFL college football that could

1095
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,919
Speaker 1: work against you too, and usually it's it's priced into

1096
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 1: the market. But I think that this is the bottom

1097
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: point in Oklahoma State. I thought it was a great

1098
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 1: spot for them on Saturday. Still would bet it again.

1099
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,360
Speaker 1: If you look at any analytical site, they great that

1100
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: as an Oklahoma State win. They've gone seven to forty

1101
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: two the past two games from three. They're not a

1102
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 1: great three point shoot d but they're not sixteen percent.

1103
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 1: They've had a lot of open looks that they just missed.

1104
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 1: They do missed Avery Anderson. He's their best, probably their

1105
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 1: best on ball defender. He can create his own shot.

1106
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,279
Speaker 1: You're gonna have to get everything at the rim now.

1107
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 1: They're doing to hit some threes, which they probably will tonight.

1108
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: They also have an elite pick and roll defense, as

1109
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: you mentioned, which is huge against Baylor. But they they're

1110
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get to the rim here and

1111
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get offensive rebounds and put

1112
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: backs against this Baylor weak rim defense, So I think

1113
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,479
Speaker 1: that they're gonna get some easy buckets. The defense shows

1114
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: up here. So I like Okahoma State catching points at

1115
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 1: home here after losing four straight. They watched that the

1116
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: three point Varans. I think do break their way tonight,

1117
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 1: so give me the pokes. Speaking of pokes, I played

1118
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 1: Woman plus six. I would not if follow me if

1119
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 1: I were you, because they never cover and I always

1120
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: bet them because my numbers show value and Nevada just

1121
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 1: covers every game somehow. I also like Montana State against

1122
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 1: Eastern Washington, who's winning streak finally came to an end

1123
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 1: on Saturday. They have everything locked up already. Montana State,

1124
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: I think, is the best team in that conference. They're

1125
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 1: now fully healthy. I think they get that win tonight.

1126
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:54,719
Speaker 1: Those are two other ones that throw out. Mike, let

1127
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: me throw it to you. What do you got for

1128
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 1: Monday night?

1129
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 3: It's got one. I'll keep it simple. Florida Gulf Coast

1130
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:01,800
Speaker 3: and the end field is not walking through that door.

1131
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 3: They've been awful down the stretch in the a Sun.

1132
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 3: They've lost eight of their last eleven straight up in

1133
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 3: conference play. Light against a Queen's team that I think

1134
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 3: is going to make noise in this conference tournament. The

1135
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 3: fact that they're only laying a point and a half.

1136
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,839
Speaker 3: It's kind of a weird situational play because they're playing

1137
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 3: at Kennesaw, a neutral floor within the conference. But the

1138
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 3: last time Queen's took the floor at Kennesaw, they upset

1139
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 3: the Owls. So I'm going to go ahead with the

1140
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 3: much better backboard. I love Kenny Dye, I love aj McKee.

1141
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 3: These guys could go for sixty total in this game.

1142
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 3: I think that they have a future in this tournament.

1143
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:37,879
Speaker 3: I think FGCU is looking to shut it down. So

1144
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 3: the fact is, if it's below a single possession in

1145
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 3: terms of the spread, I would go ahead and hammer

1146
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 3: this one on the Royals.

1147
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, did I have that wrong for the I had

1148
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: that wrong for the that I mentioned earlier for the

1149
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: Atlantic Sun that it's in the higher seeds host.

1150
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 3: That I said, I may have its set so that

1151
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 3: it doesn't reset on the highest seeded team, So you.

1152
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 4: Know, I think that is it.

1153
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 2: So Queen's and Florida Gulf Coast are playing in Kennesaw,

1154
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 2: and then North Florida and Bellarmine are playing at Liberty.

1155
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:10,359
Speaker 2: If you look at the bracket at the semifinals, they

1156
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 2: reset it and they say you play at the highest

1157
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 2: remaining seed. So if Queen's or Florida Golf Coast wins,

1158
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 2: they're gonna play Kennesau at Kennesas. So that's why they're

1159
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 2: basically just playing out whatever the higher seeds floor is.

1160
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 4: For these first two round matchups.

1161
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 2: But the other matchups would be Stetson is gonna host

1162
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:31,240
Speaker 2: lips Gum and then Eastern Kentucky's gonna host North Alabama,

1163
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 2: and then after the quarterfinals, then it resets to the

1164
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 2: highest remaining seed.

1165
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:39,919
Speaker 1: Bizarre right, all right, good catch there though I didn't

1166
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 1: have that down, So I'm glad that we looked at that.

1167
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:46,919
Speaker 1: But good stuff all around, boys, We will be back

1168
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: later in the week, hopefully some more winners. Thanks to

1169
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 1: both of you for joining me is always thanks to

1170
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 1: everyone for listening. Thanks for audio video team in the

1171
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 1: back end. Make sure you subscribe, unsubscribed, subscribe and subscribe subscribes.

1172
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 1: All friends on.

1173
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 3: Enemy leave review.

1174
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 1: Later this week, we're gonna pick the best review. We'll

1175
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 1: released the best five star review, and they're gonna join

1176
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 1: us on our futures portfolio. We're gonna split it five ways,

1177
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 1: are the producers. I told him that he can get

1178
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: in with us, so the best review. Will reveal it

1179
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 1: later on the end of the week episode. But Freeman,

1180
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 1: we will be back Wednesday with the conference tournament preview

1181
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:24,760
Speaker 1: and mid week preview. We'll be back for the weekend

1182
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 1: review and for conference tournaments starting on the weekend, and

1183
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 1: then of course next week we will have you covered

1184
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 1: for all of the conference tournaments and Championship week. More

1185
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:34,759
Speaker 1: details to come on that dat in the week. Thanks

1186
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,319
Speaker 1: for listening, good luck on all of your wagers, and

1187
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: we will catch you all next time.

1188
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 3: Cheers.

1189
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 1: Monday. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1190
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,760
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1191
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1192
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 3: gambler