1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 2 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: I I'm your host, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of 3 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: the Action Network. Reminder, we are your place for news, 4 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: data analysis, research information when it comes to betting on 5 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: the NFL and everything else. Download our free Action Network app. 6 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: It's award winning, It's got everything you need on this 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: podcast today. I'm gonna be joined as I am every 8 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 1: time we do this show by my bff, my companion, 9 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 1: my compadre. He's in the foxhole with me. He walks 10 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: into hornets nests in protective gear. He's triple vexed professional 11 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Before we came on here, Cam Newton 12 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: to the Carolina Panthers, what do you what do you 13 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: think of that? Is that a real signing? Is this real? Dude? 14 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: Is that serious? We we did not talk about this 15 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 1: before we came on the air. No I saw right 16 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: before we hopped on on social media. Cam Newton apparently 17 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: got vaccinated. So now teams are interviewing the Carolina Panthers. 18 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 1: Cam Newton. Time is a flat circle. That would be crazy. 19 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: If you actually signed there, that would be nuts. I 20 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: don't know that it would do anything Honestly, if I 21 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 1: were the Panthers, I'd still probably start p J. Walker 22 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: this weekend. But yeah, and now he's definitely starting this week. 23 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: But I think next week they play Washington. So it's 24 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: it's just interesting all day from matchups. Big show today. 25 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: It's Thursday, so we're gonna narrow down the field, talk 26 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 1: about the games that on Tuesday we loved, see anything 27 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: that might have changed our minds. Um, based on the market, news, 28 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: based on injuries, based on prices changing. We're gonna do 29 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: our sharp calls. We're gonna see who the wise guys 30 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: called you about that they thought we were right or 31 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: wrong on since Tuesday. Um, we will do our big 32 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: balls better the week. Reminder, on Tuesday we said Washington 33 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: football team plus nine and a half against the Bucks 34 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,279 Speaker 1: was our sign and says our foxhold was the Saints 35 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: plus three. It's already down to two and a half. 36 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 1: So we're not the only ones with that idea. We 37 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: will still do a money line partly, but we'll also 38 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 1: still offer a survivor pick. I got a lot of 39 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: feedback that, yeah, our survivor pick would say, people people 40 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: really want to survivra pick chat about it. So we'll 41 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: talk about who we would take if we were still 42 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: in it, based on the teams that we would have remaining. 43 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: I think we know who that's going to be. I'm 44 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: gonna keep track of it. So right now, we're gonna 45 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: count last week as if we took Miami instead of 46 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: taking what we did take in Dallas, so be as 47 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: if we did win. That's nice. We can live in 48 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: that alternate universe. But first let's get to it. Sharp calls, baby, Hello, 49 00:02:50,480 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: who's there. I'm talking the early it calls like god, 50 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: Sunday night and Monday morning, where guys talking about forty niners. 51 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: They love that number. They thought that you're gonna good 52 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: number four Nineers versus Cardinals at plus four. It's down 53 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: to plus three and a half in a lot of books. 54 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: The newest calls I got, people are gonna like as 55 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: much they love Miami tonight seven and a half. You 56 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: can still get that hook. They're all over it. They 57 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 1: think this is a really good position to be taking 58 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: this Miami team. They're undervalue. You're playing against Ravens team 59 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 1: that historically they beat up on really bad teams. But 60 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: it's not great when you're getting a physical team like 61 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: the Ravens on a short week in the game they 62 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:33,679 Speaker 1: just went to over time against against the team in 63 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: Miami that they are terrible. I understand completely why people 64 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: hate this Miami team, but you just have to play 65 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: the numbers. Two. You're getting seven a half at home 66 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: on a Thursday night. It's it's it's a hard not 67 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: to agree with the professionals. This one and the other 68 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: game they really kept reaching out to me about was, uh, 69 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: they love our they love our Jets pick chat. That 70 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: was thirteen and a half and we talked about it. 71 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: It's down to twelve of it. A lot of books 72 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: now that Mike Whites announces the quarterback, So now how 73 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: much just changed there as well? Uh, I would say 74 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: the one they want us to stay away from. I 75 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: don't know if we would even do it anyway was 76 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: the Eagles. A lot of pros I've talked to like 77 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: Denver actually that matchup, so it doesn't matter anyway. We 78 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: weren't gonna do the Eagles because I've banned them for us. 79 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: But a couple of pros I've talked to they really 80 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: like Denver in this matchup at home? Why do they 81 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: like Denver? Did they say, uh, they just having the 82 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: different projections where they thought last week that Eagles game 83 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: was the perfect game for that Eagles team. They still lost. 84 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: So the one probably talked to you we had at 85 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: five and a half for Denver. Another one talked to 86 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: about at four. I had the line of three. So 87 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: I think it's a good number. That's why I kind 88 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: of like the Eagles. But if you're just looking at 89 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: pure matchup on paper, the only way to really stopped 90 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: Teddy is getting to him. The Eagles are one of 91 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 1: the lowest teams and pressures on quarterbacks this year. They 92 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: were the lowest sack rates of all teams this year. 93 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: I mean, our biggest, our best guy are are highest 94 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: sac rate guy, Brandon Graham. He's been out and you 95 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: really noticed that the last couple of weeks. Eagles are 96 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: just not getting to the quarterback. So I think they 97 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: looking at a position that Denver is getting healthier. They 98 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 1: got Jerry Judy back on all offense, it looks like 99 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: they got their running game going last week against an 100 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: Eagles team that Slade could be on the secondary. Just 101 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: a couple of different things with this defense that they 102 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 1: just have not been good. And I think it's five 103 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: different quarterbacks have complete over against the Eagles team. Teddy 104 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: is a really high percentage completion quarterback. This is a 105 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: really fable matchup firm. So it makes sense now when 106 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: you really look back at it, why these professionals like 107 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: Denver in this position, Well, not all of a sudden. 108 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: I love I love Denver. I wasn't even talking about it. Now. 109 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: I think it's like Denver's going to the super Bowl. 110 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: And that's why I love having different guys reach out 111 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 1: to me, because they kind of opened up exactly what 112 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: you're you're saying there, like it kind of opened up 113 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: an ave and I wasn't looking at it. And then 114 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: when you go back and look at it, you know what, 115 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: maybe I am too low. Maybe this line shouldn't be 116 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: three and it should be four, And they're right, you're 117 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: getting an extra point or point and a half of 118 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: value on this Denver team. So I'm right there with you. 119 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: I really didn't like Denver that much going into this week, 120 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: and now the more I think about it's like, you 121 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: know it, Actually that's a good pick. All right, Well 122 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: maybe we'll add it to the list. Um, let's start 123 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:11,359 Speaker 1: with the game that we said with Simon says the 124 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: Washington football team plus nine and a half against the Bucks. 125 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 1: I'll stick with it, as Simon says, but I do 126 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 1: have some trepidation as we get further from Tuesday and 127 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: our instant reactions. Are you feeling the same trepidation betting 128 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: against Tom Brady after a bye? Then I am no, 129 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: and you can go. Look. I think teams after a 130 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: bye this year three and nine against the spread. Tom 131 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: Brady has not covered a game on the road yet, 132 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 1: which is something we love. Another thing I love about 133 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: this game is I think I talked to three or 134 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: from bookmakers, and all of them are getting tons and 135 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: tons of Tampa money, tons of Tampa teasers. What is 136 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: this line done? Nothing? It's just sat there nine and 137 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: a half. So if it was going up, if it 138 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: was at eleven right now, maybe I'd be a little 139 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 1: worried because that means professionals of coming in bet Tampa. 140 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: It's not looking that way. It just looks like it's 141 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: all public money hitting this. Uh. You know, I can't 142 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: blame when Tom Brady, like you just said, after a boye, 143 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: you you assume they're going to get it right. But 144 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: to me, this is just a prime example why you 145 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: take this Washington team at home and kind of a 146 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: letdown spot for Tampa. But I I can't see them 147 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: really getting up for this matchup. As much as I'd 148 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: love to say Tom gets up for every game, this 149 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: is such a classic let down game for this team. 150 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 1: So now I'm not betting. I don't know if I'll 151 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: have him in the round robin the money line with 152 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: Washington because Tom he has the ball at anytime in 153 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: the final couple of minutes against this defense of Washington. 154 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: I just can't see Washington get stops. But at nine 155 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,559 Speaker 1: and a half, this line is overvalued by two points. 156 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: I still think you're getting a great number here. I 157 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: do want it on the record. Okay, so we'll stick 158 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: with with Washington football team not and a half. We 159 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: still like it. I do want it on the record. 160 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,119 Speaker 1: I still like the Lions. That numbers down to plus eight. 161 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: I like it less. You still like the Steelers. You 162 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: and I are on what they call opposite sides. Yeah 163 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't love Pittsburgh. What are you walking back? 164 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: I'm a man of conviction. Definitely, I love the Lions. 165 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: I'm with you. The more I look at this is 166 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: the classic UM I'm gonna end up taking Pittsburgh and 167 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: survivor pools. And this is the game they lose against 168 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: the lines, the first one of the season for the lines. 169 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: But no, it's nothing's really changed. Yeah, I still I'm 170 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 1: still gonna know Ben in Pittsburgh. I still think Pittsburgh 171 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: is gonna win this game and cover this number. I 172 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: just I just have zero faith right now in the lines. 173 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: But going off our joke that the lines don't cover 174 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: one week, in the final week they cover, and they've 175 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,079 Speaker 1: done it all year, this technically is one of the 176 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: weeks you take the lines to cover if you're going 177 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: off that pattern. This season, also you got the opposite 178 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:52,679 Speaker 1: of rab Mike. I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna say, 179 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: we can make what do you guys quit today? They 180 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 1: are a home team, is a big favorite with a 181 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: quarterback that isn't playing well uh and has to score 182 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: a lot of points to cover a big number against 183 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 1: a team that is not going to quit. They are 184 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: gonna eat those knee caps. They are not gonna stop 185 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: until they are full. They can be down fourteen and 186 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: there's a minute left and they have just scored a 187 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 1: touchdown and they are going to on site kick it. 188 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: They will just keep going. So this team is Detroit. 189 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: We're gonna kick you in the teeth, and when you 190 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: punch this, we're gonna smile at you. And when you 191 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: knock us down, we're gonna get up. And on the 192 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: way up, we're gonna buy a knee cap off. All right, 193 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: We're gonna take your other knee cap. Before long, we're 194 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: there going to be the last one standing. If you 195 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: have this passion Sunday morning, we'll probably have the lines in. 196 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: Just all that. Like I was gonna bed labs before 197 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,559 Speaker 1: he came on. There's a bunch of trends that favor 198 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,719 Speaker 1: what you're saying right now. I think Roethlisberger has a 199 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: seven a half point favorite at home. He's owing six 200 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: in his last six covering. So a bunch of different 201 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 1: little trends I really favorite towards what you're saying right now. 202 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: So why are you fight me? Why even fight me? 203 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: Why say that you're gonna take the Steelers just because 204 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: I make a number in my system. So if my 205 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: system saying this number three and a half and it 206 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: was at nine now it's down to eight, I still 207 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:15,839 Speaker 1: have to go with Pittsburgh. So it's that's how it goes, buddy. Well, listen, 208 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: sometimes you gotta break away from the system. Don't be 209 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: beholden to the math all the time. Go with your feelings. Um. 210 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 1: We also talked a lot about the Browns and the Patriots, 211 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 1: and this is one where, um, the line was at one. 212 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: Now the line is at two and a half. Uh, 213 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: so we've seen money and tickets come out in the Patriots. 214 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: I'm starting to feel like the Browns on the right 215 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: side here. If it gets the three, I might have 216 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: to be there with you. That's what I was talking about. 217 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: This line kept going up, but eventually at three, the 218 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: Browns become the value in this position. And I think 219 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 1: the lines just moving because of the Nick Chubb like 220 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 1: he he's out right, I'm pretty sure. So you know, 221 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: pros are looking at that. They're saying, okay, the best 222 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 1: weapon off this offense has gone now and Nick Chubb, 223 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: but I don't know it's I'm right there with you. 224 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it. But if 225 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: it does get the three, and if it was three 226 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: in our our contest, our imaginary contest, I guess I 227 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: would take that's uh. With the Browns. But to me, 228 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: there's other matchups that I like better and there's more 229 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 1: value on the lines. Yeah, I agree, I totally agree. 230 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: Um uh, let's talk about the Cowboys. Let's spend a 231 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: decent amount of time talking about the Cowboys for a second, 232 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: because well before that, I don't want to I don't 233 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: want to short change the Colts. It was a big number. 234 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: We like it as the Colts at minus ten? Do 235 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: we contest like it? Do we like it top five 236 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: like it? Or do we like it like you know, 237 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: it's the right number and it's what we should do 238 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 1: because this Jaguars team is coming off a big win, 239 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: the Coults are coming off of bye. It's the right 240 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: spot for them to blow a team out. Like, you 241 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: know how I go though, if it's if it's either, 242 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 1: I'm taking a double digit favorite, double digit dog, Like 243 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: I'd rather take the Jets of the double digit dog 244 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: than take the Colts of the double digit favorite, So 245 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: I'm always gonna go towards that. But yeah, I still 246 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 1: love the Colts in this matchup. This is a classic. 247 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: You just want to fade the Jaguars af there such 248 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,839 Speaker 1: a huge win at home, young team, party been been 249 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: partying all week. Um, it's it's not ideal, um because 250 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: it's once again we'll be back in Carson Wentz and 251 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: that's always just the roller coaster rider roller coaster rides. 252 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: But that's a great number if it stays under twelve. 253 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: To me, that's a that's a very very fair number 254 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: for this Colts team. So I still like it. But 255 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: like we can talk about this Dallas matchup that to 256 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 1: me has been the most interesting movement of all the 257 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 1: week is how the pros are really coming in on 258 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: Atlanta and they bet this number down. Yeah, I don't 259 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 1: get it, and I'm with you. I like it's it's 260 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 1: a weird game. To me, it feels like the exact 261 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: right spot to be betting the Cowboys. From a matchup 262 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: point of view, it plays to the Cowboys strengths in 263 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: which the Falcons are a team that is going to 264 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 1: put the ball in the air. They are going to 265 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: be in a position where they where the Cowboys can 266 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: create turnovers. Um, the Falcons running the Russian game is 267 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: really not very good. Uh. The Cowboys are coming off 268 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 1: such a huge loss that you're getting a bit of 269 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: a discount on the number. Everything to me smacks take 270 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: the Cowboys here? How do you not? And that's why 271 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 1: I don't really get what the proser scene. This is 272 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: such a Atlanta just had a huge win against the 273 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 1: divisional opponent that they notoriously hate, so they've had a good, 274 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: a nice week here where the Cowboys have an embarrassing 275 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: loss at home. You know they're on it this week 276 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: with practice another trend I loved. I saw, Um what 277 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: was that? There might have been thirty one to seventeen, Um, 278 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: what was the trend? So basically, a team that covers 279 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 1: the final weeks, they're playing against the team that did 280 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: not cover, the team that did not cover the past 281 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: week against the team that dive covered. Now this week 282 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: it's seventeen the team covers that didn't cover the week before. 283 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: So that's a classic match up right here of that 284 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: exact scenario where Atlanta not only didn't cover as a 285 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: road dog, they want out right now going on the 286 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: road again to play Dallas at home. We didn't cover 287 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: at home as a big favorite. How do you not 288 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: just going off the bed Labs numbers? How do you 289 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: not just favorite towards the Cowboys with these kind of trends? 290 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: So it's I'm staying in my I'm staying in my 291 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: position here. I feel actually way better about this one 292 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: where Pittsburgh again, Sunday morning, you call me up chat, 293 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: you're all about Detroit. I could easily talked in the Detroit. 294 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: There's no scenario could talked to Atlanta this week. I 295 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: loved Dallas in this position, I feel like Cowboys right 296 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: now are the most solid of the games that we 297 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: are talking about, like consterms of our agreement. Yeah, all right, absolutely, 298 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: I'm still a little nervous about Washington football team, even 299 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: though even though by the way I chow was it 300 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: as my screwtrow lempic and you chose the Saints as 301 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: your screwture Lempic and I had the first pick, and 302 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the Saints because now I'm like, 303 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: Saints are gonna win this game, and so I'm starting 304 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: to feel a little bit dreadful now when we talked 305 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: about the Saints. This is either a no brainer We're 306 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: gonna crush this one, or it's just a classic professional trap, 307 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: like the only people bet in the Saints here are prosed. 308 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: We might be walking right into it. I can not 309 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: do it. This is uh another trend for you friends 310 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: from our friends of bed Labs nine and O the 311 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: Saints as a road dog their last nine. So come on, 312 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: I mean, how how can we not take the Saints here? 313 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: This is also it's the overreaction game of the week, right, 314 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: and the Titans are so overvalued in the market based 315 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: on the winds they've had the past couple of weeks. 316 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: They beat the Colts in dramatic fashion with some flukiness. 317 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: They beat the Rams in dramatic fashion, meaning Derrick Henry 318 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: is out, their big dog dogs they're on the road. Yeah, 319 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 1: there's some there's some high variants in that game. They 320 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: didn't win because they were uh well rounded team. Um, 321 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: and the Saints defense is just so good you could 322 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: argue is probably one of the best defenses in the NFL. 323 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: And so to me, you've got Sean Payton, who's amazing 324 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: as an underdog. I listened to Stucky and Raybond on 325 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast this morning. Sean Payton the second 326 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: most profitable coach against the spread coming off of a 327 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: loss since two thousand three. Like everything screams this, this 328 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: numbers moved. It was at three. Now it's a two 329 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: and a half in a lot of places. I still 330 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: better at the two and a half. This could be 331 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: that game, It could be that Colts game from a 332 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: few weeks ago. But how do I love this? Yeah? 333 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: And I honestly would have. This has been one of 334 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: my bigger bets of the week if it was not 335 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: for the late ad of Kamara to the injury report. 336 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: He has not practiced this week. We need Kamara, I mean, 337 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 1: Alvin has been unbelievable this year for this team, so 338 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 1: we want to wait a little bit see what's going 339 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: on with that. But the fact that numbers come down 340 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 1: even though he might be out of this game actually 341 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: makes me feel even better. It goes oh man, the 342 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: bookmakers don't think doesn't even matter the thing of mark 343 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 1: Ingram can step in and be that guy for the 344 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: Saints team. So very interesting that the injury news came 345 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: out and the line moved the other way. So it's 346 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 1: I just want to keep my eye on it. But 347 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: apparently the bookmakers think irrelevant if this guy plays or not. Well, Look, 348 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 1: I think it's an indication of all the money that's 349 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: coming in on the Saints. It's all the professional money, 350 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: you know. This is that game that everybody is talking 351 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 1: about this week. Every week there is one of those games. 352 00:17:49,920 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: This is it. We're an agreement. Oh yeah, so right now. See, 353 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: I looked at my notes this morning before we started 354 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: the podcast, and I felt like we were going to 355 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: come out of here. We've probably three games that we 356 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: felt incredibly good about, like Lockstep, locked in come Sunday, 357 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: we're not gonna waiver and the Saints and the Cowboys 358 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: are two of those games. To me down with you there, 359 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: I mean, they're to me o the games that we 360 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: we kind of locked in on Tuesday, like we were 361 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,239 Speaker 1: going to take those um the again. We can talk 362 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: about now this Denver matchup. I feel like that might 363 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 1: be one of the late ads we might be thrown 364 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,199 Speaker 1: in there. We're not talking about it yet. It's not 365 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: it's not time for the Broncos yet. Okay, don't try 366 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: to overrun the rundown. I got my own notes. Okay, 367 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: well you got notes and I got notes. But we 368 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: got to talk about the Bills and the Jets. Because 369 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 1: you mentioned Mike White, the numbers moved from thirteen and 370 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: a half to twelve and a half. H The hype 371 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,920 Speaker 1: is real, people. Now you got and we talked about 372 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: this a Jets team that beat the Bengals at home 373 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: as huge dogs, beat the Titans at home as huge dogs. 374 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: Their defense plays well. Mike White, maybe he's legit. Maybe 375 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: he was just a guy who had to throw at 376 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: eighty nine times and that's why he threw for five 377 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: yards or four hundred yards in that first game. But 378 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 1: the Bills are stumbling bumbling right now, and two touchdown 379 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: underdog at home. You blindly bet that it's not like 380 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 1: if we're getting back to our principles and we're not 381 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: going to be knocked off because of bad luck the 382 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 1: past few weeks. You take the Jets. Yeah, obviously we 383 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: loved that thirteen and a half. It's kind of tough 384 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: now that it's down to eleven twelve, but we still 385 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 1: like the number. We still think the values there. Uh. 386 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: The craziest thing to me is that the Tennessee Titans, 387 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: who beat the Buffalo Bills at home, played this exact 388 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: team like you just said in the in New Jersey. 389 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,239 Speaker 1: They played the Jets the wide open seven and a 390 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: half by clothes. I think it was down to four 391 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 1: just because the pros really came in heavy on the 392 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 1: Jets and Tennessee had a bunch of injuries going into 393 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: that game. Okay, so that number closed at four. If 394 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: this game says closed at ten, are the Bills really 395 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: six points better than Tennessee right now? I don't think so. 396 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: Um so interesting what the bookmakers are doing here. They 397 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 1: they hung this pretty high just to get some public money, 398 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: you know, in a big number on a big favorite, 399 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: and make them pay to tease it down. Now they're 400 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 1: moving it down because that's how much professionals money coming 401 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: on the Jets. They're they're right there with us. Yeah, 402 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 1: they're they're saying theirselves, the NFL hasn't figured out Mike 403 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: White yet. They don't know what defense to run against them. 404 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: The Bills. It's not that we predicted this coming into 405 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 1: the year with um them being this bad at five 406 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: and three, again, that's not that bad, but they've had 407 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: these games they've lost they really shouldn't have lost. Now 408 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 1: we're kind of getting that idea that, you know, what's 409 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 1: exactly what we talked about the last year, Josh Youn 410 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: had the best career year of his life. We were 411 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: saying to him, do it again, and then we'll believe 412 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 1: in you do do it. Back to back seasons it's 413 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: not looking like it did last year. A bunch of 414 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: different things he's doing wrong. It's kind of if you're 415 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: a Bills fan, it's gonna be a little worried that 416 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: this is your franchise quarterback and he's reverting back to old, 417 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: sloppy habits from his rookie years. So as much as 418 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,479 Speaker 1: we love the Jets here, this is a prime spot 419 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: to get right for Josh Down. This is one of 420 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,360 Speaker 1: the worst past defenses in football, and then New York 421 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: New York Jets. They have a good front line, their 422 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: secondary is terrible. So if he's gonna figure it out, 423 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: this this has to be the matchup for Josh Down 424 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: to figure it out. But I got no issue taking 425 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,399 Speaker 1: Mike White here in a backdoor situation where if he 426 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 1: has the ball. I'm excited to see what this kid 427 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 1: can do because I've only seen him maybe ten fool 428 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: drives by him in his career. He's put up points 429 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: and by eight of them, Like he he is really 430 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 1: good at driving the field and doing stuff with this offense. 431 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 1: So if the Bills keep running the defense they've been 432 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: running like they ran the last couple of weeks, they've 433 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,360 Speaker 1: been running kind of a weird zone scheme where it's 434 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: kind of what these teams are doing against my homes 435 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 1: are just giving up the short stuff. They're letting you 436 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 1: run it against them, but they're gonna let you beat 437 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: them beat That's that's where Mike White thrives. That's what 438 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: the cult ran against him. He was hitting guys in 439 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: between the numbers, all up and down the field. I 440 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: mean he drove down the field is opening drive. It's 441 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 1: it's a it's a big number, but I'm not scared 442 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: of it. The fact that's come down is the only problem. 443 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: That's like, I'm not gonna try to harp on that 444 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: too much because episode burned us the last couple of weeks. 445 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: Is me being too much of a oh, we're not 446 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: getting the best of number. I don't want to take 447 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: this number. I feel like we have to take the 448 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 1: Jets as long as it's above ten and a half eleven. 449 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 1: What's interesting about this Bill's team is fascinating, and the 450 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: Titans team is fascinating. And what you just said about 451 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 1: this number and the delta of about six points of 452 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: value based on the Bookmaker's math between the Titans and 453 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 1: the Bills, that that that speaks to why we are 454 00:22:55,240 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 1: also confident about the Saints, and that the the betting 455 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,199 Speaker 1: markets that are the professional betting markets of bookmakers and 456 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: wise guys, have zero respect for the Titans. They look 457 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 1: at that, They look at that record as completely fraudulent. 458 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 1: I feel better about betting the Saints now knowing a 459 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: little bit more about the sort of transitive properties of 460 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: that bill's jets number. Now I'm with you on that, 461 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: all right, I'm not I'm not uncomfortable with this. You 462 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 1: know what, I think? It was our friend Bruce Arians 463 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: who once said, no risk it, no biscuit. Guess what, 464 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: I fucking love biscuits. It's not really true. I'm not 465 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 1: a carves guy, but if I did eat carbs, biscuits 466 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: would be the carbs that I eat. Oh man, you 467 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: gotta get some Hawaiian bread. That's the car you want 468 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: to eat. We got like the Hawaiian bread in my 469 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 1: kitchen right now. My kids love the Hawaiian bread. They do. 470 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: By the way, thanks to UH, A lot of people 471 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 1: tweeted at me and said they hope my kid was 472 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: feeling better, which is really sweet of people to do. Yeah, 473 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 1: I got dams too, I said, tell chat this that's funny. Yeah, 474 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: he's doing well. He's sitting on the couch right now, 475 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: zooming into his classes, being treated like a king. And 476 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: now a few words from our friends at Fandel. 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Restrictions apply. 502 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred, next step or text 503 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona 504 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 1: one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, 505 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 1: or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one 506 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r 507 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 1: G in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one eight 508 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 1: d seven zero seven seven for confidential help. In Michigan, 509 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:18,399 Speaker 1: Tennessee Redline one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven 510 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: eight nine, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net 511 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. We're 512 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: not going to talk about the Vikings and Chargers. This 513 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 1: number has moved. Uh it's three and a half now, 514 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: it was two and a half. I think the Vikings 515 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 1: were the right side. Anyways, Um, we weren't talking about 516 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 1: on our contest. Obviously there's some COVID potential COVID issues 517 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:45,640 Speaker 1: there and coming out. So it feels like a pass 518 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, And like the drama Dalvin Cook, like 519 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:53,120 Speaker 1: this guy's either a victim or he's a horrible human being. 520 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: He's trying to play a victim where he did something 521 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 1: terrible in domestic violence case. So I'm right there with 522 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 1: I don't want to get burned any more by this 523 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 1: COVID news, by these backups. Let's just stay away from 524 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: this one. Can we talk about the Panthers and the Cardinals? Though? Please? 525 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 1: Are we missing an opportunity with the Panthers? One of 526 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: the reasons what's up we're on the we talk we 527 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 1: like the Panthers. Tuesday we did I don't have I 528 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: don't have it in my notes, do you Well? Our 529 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: big thing was we wanted to make sure Sam Arnold 530 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 1: was out and he is we're in, baby, dude, then 531 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 1: we are one hundred percent in on this game. Yeah. No, 532 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,080 Speaker 1: The joke was like the line the bookmakers hang this 533 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 1: line saying, we don't care what the quarterback is. If 534 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 1: it's cool, McCoy will let it be ten. The public 535 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 1: is going right there with him. They're saying, you know what, 536 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,679 Speaker 1: we're with you, guys. This is uh, this is a 537 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: good number. We'll take the ten. So I like this 538 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 1: Carolina team, but we're gonna end up on one of 539 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 1: these big dogs. We're definitely going the Jets over Carolina. 540 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,680 Speaker 1: Um P J. Walker, He I think I feel like 541 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: his first passes a pixel X when he came in there, 542 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 1: like a couple of weeks ago, or maybe it was 543 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: a drop pick six, but it's it's scary um taking 544 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: this kid. But Cole McCoy ten point favorite, come on, 545 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:13,679 Speaker 1: that's that's insane. Come on, man, against this deep offense 546 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 1: of Carolina. I mean, you gotta take care of Have 547 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 1: I told you my cult McCoy story, don't you dare? 548 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 1: Our good buddy DAVEC Chicago Bears texting me the other day, 549 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,120 Speaker 1: He's like, we've heard the Dave X story. We've we've 550 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 1: heard the day. We've heard the cult McCoy story. We've 551 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,920 Speaker 1: heard it like four times. It's more painful every time too. 552 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 1: That's the best part. Can I say, I'm an old 553 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: person who only has so many stories and I can't 554 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 1: remember them all. But we love this Panthers game. Yeah, 555 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 1: I do. I really love it again. I'm gonna paraphrase 556 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 1: Stucky here from their podcast this morning because they loved 557 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 1: it too, and one of the things that stood out 558 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: to me he had some great insight talking about regression. 559 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: And we've talked about this with the Cowboys a lot 560 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: in relation to their turnovers. And that's why last week 561 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 1: they're like, we had the Cowboys in the in the 562 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: survivor pool, but I don't think we were convinced they 563 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 1: were going to cover. And they are so reliant on 564 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 1: turnovers to create offense and UH and and win their games. 565 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 1: There had to be a regression. The Cardinals, according to 566 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: Stucky Uh, they fumble most in the NFL, lose the 567 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: second FEUs fumbles in the NFL. Opponents are fumbling the 568 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 1: second most in the NFL against them, losing the most 569 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: against them. So they're getting some really lucky bounces. And 570 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 1: if you look at the Niners, early fumbles led to 571 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: early points against the Browns big win, early fumbles led 572 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 1: at early points, Like there is a regression coming for 573 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: this team. And if it's gonna be Colt McCoy, if 574 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 1: there's not gonna be uh DeAndre Hopkins, if there's not 575 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 1: gonna be a J Green, a Panthers defense where we 576 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 1: you know, they want to run the ball, and the 577 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,720 Speaker 1: Cardinals defense is thirty first in the NFL. And ardge 578 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 1: p Rush that to me, says Panthers, And the stuff 579 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 1: is interesting in the aggression stuff is sometimes when it 580 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: happened as quickly as you'd like it to happen. So 581 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 1: that is always a little bit of risk where I mean, 582 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: even just saying off the top, I had the Eagles 583 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 1: year we won the Super Bowl, we had the same 584 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,360 Speaker 1: exact thing. We have the highest fumbling rate without losing 585 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 1: fumbles because our quarterback was Carson Wentz, who fumbled I 586 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 1: felt like every game, but so I always got it back. 587 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 1: So I'm with stuck you though, I I look at 588 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 1: this Cardinals team that I do think they're good. They're 589 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: a playoff team, no doubt. Are they the you know, 590 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: no doubt? Number one see in the NFC. You know 591 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: there's seven and one right now, everything is just going right. 592 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 1: I don't know about that. And the Cole McCoy back 593 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 1: to back starts. This is like, this is what we 594 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: always say about Cole McCoy. He can give you one 595 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: or two good starts, but eventually he's gonna fall off 596 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: a cliff. And then this matchup. You have to take 597 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 1: Carolina's defense. Uh, they played well against England. It was 598 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: more about Sam Donald just given three picks short fields. 599 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 1: That's how they lost. We got We talked about the 600 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 1: Broncos an Eagles, so we'll leave them on the list. 601 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 1: I don't think we need to say more about that. 602 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 1: We have two other games that we want to talk about. 603 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 1: The Raiders plus two and a half against the Chiefs. 604 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: You've been on the Raiders all year, and you've been 605 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 1: ahead of the market on them, and you've continue to 606 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 1: stick with them, and I have been definant. I was 607 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: right last weekend against the Giants. I feel like they're 608 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 1: a live dog this weekend. Yeah. But that's the scariest 609 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 1: part is everyone's caught up to it now with this 610 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 1: Chief's nonsense. Chiefs are still favorites and the crazy Part 611 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 1: two is the bookmakers are still respecting the Chiefs. Like 612 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: that number they hung last week, they hung the seven 613 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 1: and a half, or they maybe maybe one up to eight. 614 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 1: At one point they moved all that number all up 615 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 1: to eight. When Aaron Rodgers announced the out public came 616 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 1: in heavy. They bet it down to seven and a half. 617 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 1: They bet it down to seven. The bookmakers, let's stay 618 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 1: at seven and a half. That was an easy cover 619 00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,560 Speaker 1: for the public last week, fading the Chiefs. So they 620 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 1: might have overadjusted now at this point, but you're giving me. 621 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 1: I feel like the Raiders are a better team right now. 622 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 1: With everything that's going on in Kansas City, all the 623 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 1: dramas going on, my homes just hasn't looked right. That 624 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 1: offense does not look right. That defense is still terrible. 625 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,960 Speaker 1: I mean just because that in Jordan's Loves first start 626 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 1: that he couldn't do anything. You only put up whatever 627 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 1: it was, seven points. That's that's more about the problems 628 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: of Jordan Love. Their car is gonna have a day 629 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: against his chief's defense. So I'm right there with you. 630 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 1: I like Las Vegas, I like them on the money line, 631 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,760 Speaker 1: I'm not even taking the two and a half. This 632 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 1: is truly a whoever's last possession is probably gonna win 633 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 1: this matchup. So I like Las Vegas a lot in 634 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 1: this position, but I don't know if it's been one 635 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 1: of my best five. Um it's if it was three 636 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 1: or three and a half, I'd feel way better about 637 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 1: taking this number. I think we're narrowing down a pretty 638 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 1: good list though, right now for Sunday that we feel 639 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 1: decently strong about. Let's talk about the Niners before we 640 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 1: get some money line parlay and survivor. This next game 641 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: has to be our big balls Better the Week. It 642 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 1: must be the big balls Better the Week, because we 643 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: already did washing football team. As Simon says, you know 644 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 1: what we're going to talk about, New York Jets, huge 645 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 1: underdogs at home against the Buffalo Bills. Big balls Better 646 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 1: the Week. Oh my god, we almost did that in tune. 647 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about this Niners game. Really interesting 648 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 1: to me, really interesting to me. We loved it. We 649 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,360 Speaker 1: thought it was too many points in a divisional matchup. 650 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: We thought that the market was coming off the Niners 651 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 1: in a way that felt like it was a little 652 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: bit too much. The line has moved in the direction 653 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 1: of the Niners, it. It It was at four and a half. 654 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: In some places it's down to three and a half. 655 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,240 Speaker 1: You were getting calls immediately that they had this power 656 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,600 Speaker 1: Raider at San Francisco one. So there's still a decent 657 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: amount of value there. Talk to me, what are we 658 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,719 Speaker 1: thinking right now? It's only making me feel better as 659 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 1: the week is going along. Here, a couple more pros 660 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 1: are on it. They loved the number as well. I 661 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: talked a couple of different bookmakers in the Philadelphia area 662 00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 1: and a couple of down A c that they this 663 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: is one of their smallest handles. Like more people have 664 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 1: been on Washington. They're bet in the forty niners. We 665 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 1: got a perfect storm here. Chat. This is what I 666 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 1: always talk about. It's a rare opportunity where you have 667 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,400 Speaker 1: a standalone game, so it's a prime time game. You 668 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,120 Speaker 1: have a home team getting less than ten per cent 669 00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:18,239 Speaker 1: of the money and tener cent of the bets. All love, love, love. 670 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,960 Speaker 1: If I haven't been licking my wound so hard the 671 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, this will be one of my 672 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: biggest bets of the season. Like, I'd be all in 673 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 1: on this bet, but I'm trying to be the professional 674 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,799 Speaker 1: and say you've been cold, don't don't force the hand here, 675 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:32,400 Speaker 1: because this is like a poker hand, Like I have 676 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 1: pocket aces right now, Like the only thing I can 677 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,320 Speaker 1: screw me over is the flop. I'm just trying to 678 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 1: be smart here because this is too easy. The public 679 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: is gonna get sucked in here. Even if they have 680 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,839 Speaker 1: a great Sunday, They're gonna lose it all in this 681 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,919 Speaker 1: game because everyone's gonna ben in the Rams. They love 682 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,400 Speaker 1: their Rams. When this moves down to three, which I 683 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,160 Speaker 1: think it will, the public is gonna come in so 684 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,839 Speaker 1: heavy on this number to take the four niners while 685 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: you still get the three and a half. This is 686 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,760 Speaker 1: a prime, prime time to take this number. They suck. 687 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 1: I know, Shane Hanson Bucks, They're terrible. Everything's going wrong 688 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 1: for them. This is a gut right game for them. 689 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 1: This is like the perfect time you want to take 690 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: your You're literally buying at the lowest value of the 691 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: whole season on his four Niners team. It ain't gonna 692 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,160 Speaker 1: get any lower than right now, So nothing's changed. I 693 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 1: still love this number. I'm just not gonna be betting 694 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,359 Speaker 1: closest six figures on it, just because I've just been 695 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,720 Speaker 1: that cold. Why are you so fa scared I'm a coward? 696 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,359 Speaker 1: Play the drought man that I'm a sucking coward. I'm 697 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:29,320 Speaker 1: calling you out, Simon Hunter, professional coward. What am I 698 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 1: looking at right now? You're a coward. You ain't nothing 699 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,799 Speaker 1: but a gun. Yell a turn you know you're just 700 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:41,760 Speaker 1: a goddamn color. It's wrong, dude, you yell you're a coward. 701 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,480 Speaker 1: Pull up pants and be a man. You're gonna get that. 702 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:54,399 Speaker 1: Don't let me down here, God damn coward, be a man, 703 00:35:54,520 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 1: Simon take the forty niners, pathetic. You're a coward. When 704 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,319 Speaker 1: I knew you, when I knew you, you were not 705 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 1: a coward. This job ruined me. Chat I used to 706 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 1: be a man. I'd hair in my chest. Now I 707 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 1: shaved my chest. I feel bad. I feel bad that 708 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: I did this to you. I feel bad that I 709 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: I tempted you with fame and no fortune and this 710 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 1: callus on my hands. Look out, no callous easy life. 711 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:24,800 Speaker 1: You're fucking soft. I agree with you. It sounds like 712 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 1: I'm forcing it in. Cowboys, Niners, Saints. I said we'd 713 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:31,560 Speaker 1: come out of this with three that we love. We 714 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,680 Speaker 1: love Cowboys, Niners and Saints. I think when we talk 715 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,440 Speaker 1: on Sunday, it's going to be a debate between for 716 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:42,400 Speaker 1: the final two Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, and we'll see what 717 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,960 Speaker 1: happens with the Browns and the Lions and whoever Chris 718 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 1: Raybon takes on our show. We won't fade them. No 719 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:53,879 Speaker 1: matter what. Agbon is on fire. He swept everything last 720 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 1: week on this podcast. Them swept. It's crazy. Whatever Raybon says, 721 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 1: we're just gonna be alright, Chris, Yeah, pretty much. That's it. 722 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:14,719 Speaker 1: All right. Let's say the Survivor pool pick of the week. 723 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 1: Let's say, Yeah, let's say we took Miami and Survivor 724 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,479 Speaker 1: last week. If we took Miami and Survivors last week, 725 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,520 Speaker 1: I feel like we're taking the Bills this week on 726 00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,759 Speaker 1: the road. Well, then we're taking the Colts. So we 727 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,160 Speaker 1: already used Colts in ours. We took them against the Texans. 728 00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,560 Speaker 1: So that's why we're either looking at Pittsburgh, we're the Cowboys. Well, 729 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 1: we're taking the Cowboys. Then we think the Cowboys are 730 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: going to cover. So love the Cowboys. We love the Cowboys. 731 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 1: That'd be amazing. We got burned two weeks in a 732 00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 1: row by the Cowboys. But I have to take them 733 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,320 Speaker 1: and survivor here. We gotta take them here. What about 734 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:54,799 Speaker 1: the money line parlay. I'd be tempted on the Panthers here. 735 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,040 Speaker 1: I don't hate it. So I was gonna go with 736 00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: the Jets just because they're at home and I like that. 737 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,440 Speaker 1: It's a bigger no uber. I know the Bills, it's 738 00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,240 Speaker 1: the divisional game. They need it, but that's even more reason. 739 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,440 Speaker 1: I just they're there, wheels are spinning right now. I 740 00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,520 Speaker 1: just like the way the Jets have been playing, So 741 00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 1: I'll throw the Jets in there kind of We'll have 742 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,279 Speaker 1: Caroline and his so right now I have this is 743 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,520 Speaker 1: actually a good, big, big week for this one. If 744 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,640 Speaker 1: this hits, would be really nice play too. I got 745 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 1: the Jets, got the Washington football team, I got the Saints, 746 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,240 Speaker 1: I got the Raiders, and I got the forty Niners. 747 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,319 Speaker 1: I don't hate. Like if you want to add the 748 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:32,319 Speaker 1: one in is the Seahawks. Just because Aaron Rodgers might 749 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,799 Speaker 1: have really bad lasting effects from COVID. As someone that 750 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 1: had COVID, I still don't feel right mentally, like I 751 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,480 Speaker 1: still feel like there's a little things like that where 752 00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 1: it just it just sucks with your system. Um, so 753 00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 1: I don't know how he affected him, but we saw 754 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,759 Speaker 1: last year these other quarterbacks come back from it and 755 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 1: they just weren't right. Like Lamar wasn't right for a 756 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,480 Speaker 1: couple of months. He he just was not in shape. 757 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:53,960 Speaker 1: Um because again it's a it's a virus that affect 758 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,440 Speaker 1: you your lungs. So we didn't really talk about the 759 00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,279 Speaker 1: Seahawks because I kind of want to stay away from it. 760 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,280 Speaker 1: Just because Russell so got pins out of his hands 761 00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,960 Speaker 1: not even seven days ago. It's weird. It's just a 762 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:06,759 Speaker 1: weird That's why that number is so weird to me, 763 00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 1: and the fact that it's come down the professionals obviously 764 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,279 Speaker 1: like the Seahawks this matchup. I just didn't really have 765 00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:13,080 Speaker 1: a feel for it. I was on the Green Bay side. 766 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,959 Speaker 1: So if you throw the Seahawks money line in there, 767 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: you want to take out on these big ones in 768 00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,759 Speaker 1: Washington football team in the Jets, I get it. I 769 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 1: just like playing these big numbers because of the value 770 00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,600 Speaker 1: of the whole over the whole season. Yeah, guy, like 771 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 1: I had pins in my thumb. Oh yeah, I had 772 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 1: him taken out. I was I was balling the next day, really, 773 00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:37,839 Speaker 1: I mean literally crying, not falling. What was that like though? 774 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,040 Speaker 1: Like did I feel normal? Like literally right afterwards? It's 775 00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: fucking weird. It's really weird. But look, they'll shoot him up, 776 00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,439 Speaker 1: they'll wrap it, he'll play, He'll be fine. I'd rather 777 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 1: been on Russell Wilson seven days removed from Pins, Aaron 778 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,719 Speaker 1: Rodgers off of COVID, having seen how challenging it can 779 00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,800 Speaker 1: be for people to come back from that, having not 780 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,359 Speaker 1: act for two weeks. Yeah, that's I'm with you on that. 781 00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,759 Speaker 1: But I've been burned by these situations all year, So 782 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:11,760 Speaker 1: I'll just I'll his pass. All right. We've done Survivor, 783 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 1: We've done Money Line Parlay, We've narrowed down our picks. 784 00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 1: I will remind everybody watch Convinced Me Sunday mornings at 785 00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,440 Speaker 1: Action Network HQ eleven a m. Eastern. We'll dig in 786 00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,920 Speaker 1: a little deeper reminder for Scooch Roulette. I took Washington 787 00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,680 Speaker 1: plus nine and a half. Simon took the Saints plus 788 00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:32,120 Speaker 1: plus three. I'm kind of regretting my choice. Are big 789 00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,279 Speaker 1: balls better? The week is the Jets plus thirteen? Our 790 00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,239 Speaker 1: Simon says, it's Washington football team plus nine and a half. 791 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,360 Speaker 1: Our foxhold is Saints plus three. I am Shaddon Melman 792 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,600 Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from the 793 00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:48,000 Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. Download on Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever you 794 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,759 Speaker 1: get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe where We'll be back 795 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I Love you