WEBVTT - Monologue: What If I'm Right?

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<v Speaker 1>All Zone Media. Hail traveler, Welcome to this week's Better

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<v Speaker 1>offline monologue. I'm your host ed ZITRN, so I'm breeding

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<v Speaker 1>this the day after In Video put out there August

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seventh turnings, and I'm not sure anybody really knows

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<v Speaker 1>how to react. While in Video be estimates in general,

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<v Speaker 1>they for the second quarter running mist analyst estimates on

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<v Speaker 1>data center revenue, which is eighty eight percent of their revenue,

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<v Speaker 1>where all the GPUs are coming in at forty one

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<v Speaker 1>point one billion dollars on an estimated forty one point

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<v Speaker 1>three billion dollars. The market also has a very unhealthy

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<v Speaker 1>relationship with this company. In Video grew like fifty percent

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<v Speaker 1>or something year over year, but because they didn't grow

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and twelve percent or whatever year over year,

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<v Speaker 1>people are the babies and the markets are soiling their diapers,

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<v Speaker 1>And honestly, it's because really it's unhealthy. The unrealistic valuations

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<v Speaker 1>that in Video has been given are finally causing problems.

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<v Speaker 1>And as a reminder, in Video is the company that

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<v Speaker 1>may the specialized GPUs used in effectively all generative AI

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<v Speaker 1>and has seen unprecedented stock growth as a result of

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<v Speaker 1>this hype. Cycle. The magnificent seven stocks Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Tesla,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course Nvidia make up thirty five percent of

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<v Speaker 1>the value of the US stock market, and as I

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned on the AI money Trap, they are sent a

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<v Speaker 1>capital expenditures, of which Nvidia makes up a large chunk.

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<v Speaker 1>By well, their GPUs do at least accounted for more

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<v Speaker 1>growth than all consumer spending combined. So on so many levels,

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<v Speaker 1>and Video really is the AI bubble. They're the only

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<v Speaker 1>company making a profit in AI, and forty two percent

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<v Speaker 1>of their revenue is from the magnificent seven companies buying

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<v Speaker 1>their GPUs, and their financial health and continued growth is

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<v Speaker 1>a barometer for the future growth of this nonsense, bullshit

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<v Speaker 1>bubble that I'm tired of talking about kind of, but

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's always something to chat about yet. Luke

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<v Speaker 1>Carwo of Sherwood News discovered one particularly weird part of

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<v Speaker 1>Nvidia's earnings this week two point two billion dollars of

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<v Speaker 1>their revenue under net other income, which turned out to

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<v Speaker 1>be from the mark to market value of their investment

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<v Speaker 1>in unprofitable AI compute company cor Weve and by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>in Video invested in core Weave has a one point

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<v Speaker 1>three billion dollar GPU compute deal with them called Project Osprey.

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<v Speaker 1>They give them preferential rights their GPUs and core Weave.

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<v Speaker 1>When they raised debt, they raise by using the GPUs

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<v Speaker 1>they bought from a Videos as collateral in the loan,

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<v Speaker 1>and then they use that money from the from the

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<v Speaker 1>loan to buy more GPUs. Every time I think about

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<v Speaker 1>core Weave, I feel a little crazy. And in simple terms,

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<v Speaker 1>in Video book the increased value of their investment in

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<v Speaker 1>core Weave as revenue in a quarter where they barely

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<v Speaker 1>hit estimates. Hmmm. The reason I'm telling you this is

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<v Speaker 1>that I believe, as I've always said, that all of

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<v Speaker 1>this ends poorly in Video isn't doing anything dodgy per

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<v Speaker 1>se by including core Weave's stock. It's just that the

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<v Speaker 1>value of that stock and core Weave is covering up

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<v Speaker 1>in video is slow in growth. If Core weaves value

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<v Speaker 1>craters in the next few months, and Video will have

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<v Speaker 1>to book a massive loss in the same category. And

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<v Speaker 1>I know some of you are going to email me

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<v Speaker 1>and say, hey, where to hear mark to market before

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<v Speaker 1>And the answer is Enron. And I don't think this

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<v Speaker 1>is like Enron, because Enron was doing something somewhat different

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<v Speaker 1>they were valuing contracts in bizarre ways. This is not

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<v Speaker 1>exactly the same thing. Nevertheless, it's extremely weird to say, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the value of this stocker got over here went up.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't that good? Yeah, that's revenue now. It's dangerous. It's

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<v Speaker 1>dangerous stuff. And it means that on some level, In

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<v Speaker 1>Video's financial health and future earnings are somewhat dependent on

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<v Speaker 1>core weave. It's all so good. I like it. It's very good.

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<v Speaker 1>It's normal. Everything's so good. It's great, everybody's doing well.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's even more better is that in Video is

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<v Speaker 1>effectively the only success story in AI, opening eye and

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<v Speaker 1>anthropic but billions of dollars each year and have no

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<v Speaker 1>path any kind of sustainability. And as I've argued again

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<v Speaker 1>and again, these products lack any kind of large scale

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<v Speaker 1>use cases other than the fact that every single media

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<v Speaker 1>outlet has been screaming chat GPT for the last three years,

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<v Speaker 1>and seemingly everyone just sees code generation goes, oh my god,

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<v Speaker 1>this is literally god. But I think after three years

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<v Speaker 1>of breathless hype, the worm is kind of turning on AI.

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<v Speaker 1>In the last week, I've been on national TV twice,

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<v Speaker 1>once on CNN and once on the BBC. And while

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<v Speaker 1>I'm still introduced as somebody that does not believed the hype,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact is that more people are beginning to wonder

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<v Speaker 1>what if Ed's right? So from here on now, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to extrapolate a little bit. I don't know the future.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying, oh, this will definitely happen, but here

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<v Speaker 1>are some things that on my mind if I'm right. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's start with something simple. Open ai is toast. The

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<v Speaker 1>Financial Times reported that open AI's corporate restructuring is and

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<v Speaker 1>I quote likely to slip into next year as Microsoft

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<v Speaker 1>refuses to budge on the terms that of open ai

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<v Speaker 1>converting from a nonprofit to a for profit. Now. This

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<v Speaker 1>is because open ai went to Microsoft and said, okay, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>we need to convert to a for profit or we

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<v Speaker 1>will die. Microsoft said, okay, great, let's go ahead and

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<v Speaker 1>do that. We don't mind. Open Ai said, well, what

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to need is, we're going to need you

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<v Speaker 1>to end your exclusivity deal over our models. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to need to cut your revenue share, We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>need to not share our IP and our research from

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<v Speaker 1>with you. What do you think? And Microsoft said, go

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<v Speaker 1>fuck yourself. Microsoft back in I think May said that

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<v Speaker 1>they were willing to walk away from the table. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't fucking blame them. Now people will say, well, Microsoft

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<v Speaker 1>wants open ai to go public, they'll get a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of money. Kind of luck. Cool, we've different video, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Except Microsoft already owns all their IP and already runs

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<v Speaker 1>all their infrastructure. Remember open ai doesn't own any of

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<v Speaker 1>their info at all. They're trying to build that bullshit

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<v Speaker 1>out in Abilene, Texas, of course, but I mean that's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be built this year or even next

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. So you know, Microsoft is not understandably

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<v Speaker 1>jazz to take this deal and could let open ai

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<v Speaker 1>die on the vie. And if open ai fails to

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<v Speaker 1>convert by the end of the year, soft Bank cups

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<v Speaker 1>they're funding round in half, meaning that by my calculations,

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<v Speaker 1>soft Bank's part of the remaining thirty billion dollars, which

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<v Speaker 1>would at this point become ten billion dollars, would drop

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<v Speaker 1>two seven hundred billion dollars thanks to open ai already

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<v Speaker 1>raising eight point three billion dollars from other investors. Some

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<v Speaker 1>people are saying it's ten billion dollars just from soft Bank.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think people are good at math. I swear

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<v Speaker 1>to God, I've been looking at this ship for years,

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<v Speaker 1>and nevertheless things don't look good there. And again, soft

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<v Speaker 1>Bank has been very clear that if by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year open ai is not converted, they're cutting

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<v Speaker 1>that round in half. Even if open Ai and Microsoft

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<v Speaker 1>work this out today, I don't think it's possible that

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<v Speaker 1>they convert by the end of the year, if it's

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<v Speaker 1>even possible at all. Nonprofits are very specific things, and

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<v Speaker 1>no one has ever done what open ai is trying

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<v Speaker 1>to do. And if open ai cannot convert, they aren't

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<v Speaker 1>dead because they can never IPO and they're too big

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<v Speaker 1>to sell to anyone else. And thus investors would have

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<v Speaker 1>little reason to put further capital in other than believing

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<v Speaker 1>that open ai will so somehow stop burning billions of dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>something they have never proven is possible and nobody has

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, and fucking I hear the cost of inference

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<v Speaker 1>is going down again, and going to screen, it's going up.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm getting to it later and in a future episode.

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<v Speaker 1>And if the conversion fails, open Ai can probably cobble

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<v Speaker 1>together another fifteen billion dollars of funding before they shit

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<v Speaker 1>their pants and die. And as an aside, Open Ai

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<v Speaker 1>is currently doing an insider share sale at a five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred billion dollar valuation, with current and former employees selling

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<v Speaker 1>eight billion dollars worth of stock. This is not something

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<v Speaker 1>you do if you think you're going to go public

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<v Speaker 1>anytime soon. If ever, I need to be clear about this,

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<v Speaker 1>it looks bad and outside of Nvidia, AI is failing

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<v Speaker 1>to produce any kind of profit. And once venture capital

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<v Speaker 1>realizes this, they'll stop investing in these giant, loss ridden monstrosities.

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<v Speaker 1>This will naturally bring things to a headed Anthropic, another

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<v Speaker 1>company that burns billions of dollars, who will inevitably raise

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<v Speaker 1>maybe another ten to fifteen themselves, and perhaps another roundup after

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<v Speaker 1>that with nouffittability, though there is no reason, really no

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<v Speaker 1>reason to keep throwing cash in the furnace. And I

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<v Speaker 1>believe that Anthropic eventually gets absorbed into Amazon, like at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of that horrible game inside, and maybe it

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<v Speaker 1>will also flop around like a big blob in a field.

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<v Speaker 1>And if I spoiled inside of you, it's an old game,

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<v Speaker 1>you should have beaten it by now. Then when the

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<v Speaker 1>public markets, eventually the AI trade will fail. Despite what

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<v Speaker 1>the headlines may say, outside of Nvidia, the Magnificent seven

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<v Speaker 1>has not been making money on AI and has instead

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<v Speaker 1>been growing there already existing businesses, which is something that

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<v Speaker 1>reporters should know better. Yet they're claiming that any kind

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<v Speaker 1>of growth proves that AI bets are paying off. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not singling you out yet, but you've gotta fucking stop.

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<v Speaker 1>Once other revenue sources stop papering over the flimsy or

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<v Speaker 1>unexistent revenue and I mean revenue, not profit from AI,

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<v Speaker 1>the street will realize and they will panic. But let's

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<v Speaker 1>get serious. If I'm right, we're all bearing witness to

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most catastrophic failures in the history of

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<v Speaker 1>the markets, journalism, and society itself. Generative AI was sold

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<v Speaker 1>as a myth. It's been blatantly obvious from the very

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<v Speaker 1>beginning that large language models do not have mass market

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<v Speaker 1>use cases and no coding llms do not goddamn count

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<v Speaker 1>they don't. They don't produce the kind of revenues. And

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<v Speaker 1>guess what. The coding lms are so expensive to run

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<v Speaker 1>that if you took away the subsidies, they would be

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<v Speaker 1>economically impossible. Stop arguing with me on this point. I

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<v Speaker 1>will crush you. Yet many many, many, many, many journalists

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<v Speaker 1>choose to blindly repeat the open AI and other companies

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<v Speaker 1>are building powerful AI that will replace human workers, choosing

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<v Speaker 1>to deliberately ignore the pisspoor outcomes from using these products

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't know, failing to define what powerful means

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<v Speaker 1>because powerful does not seem to mean goddamn anything. Journalists

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<v Speaker 1>had an opportunity to tell the truth, to look at

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<v Speaker 1>the products and say, hey, I don't really get why

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<v Speaker 1>this is so amazing or powerful, exactly, question the valuations

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<v Speaker 1>of companies that make little or no revenue, while burning

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds of millions or billions of dollars to interrogate the

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<v Speaker 1>outright lies of Sam Moultman and WARRYO Darryo ama Day. Instead,

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<v Speaker 1>they choose to fuel the fantastical fire, repeating the promises

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<v Speaker 1>of people like Sam Moultman in the hopes they'll be

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<v Speaker 1>the first to be able to parrot his next lie

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<v Speaker 1>or talk to his clammiass about nothing for three hours.

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<v Speaker 1>I worry that things are so much worse than we know.

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<v Speaker 1>I have an inkling that the price of serving GPU compute,

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<v Speaker 1>the underlying infrastructure of all generative AI, is horribly unprofitable.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you're a person who's going to say, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's only a few dollars an hour. Hey, what if

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<v Speaker 1>they're selling that few dollars an hour at a loss.

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<v Speaker 1>We know now that the cost of inference is increasing,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's coming up in future episodes, but it was

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<v Speaker 1>in the GPT five one, and thus the costs of

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<v Speaker 1>providing AI services, which were already unprofitable, is increasing too. Yet,

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<v Speaker 1>by constantly accepting a myth that AI would get more powerful,

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<v Speaker 1>that these companies would somehow work out how to stop

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<v Speaker 1>burning way more money than they may, the big tech

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<v Speaker 1>would not simply lie about what was possible. Journalism pedaled

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<v Speaker 1>outright lies and help sustain a hype cycle based on

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<v Speaker 1>little more than believing the last smart sounding guy you

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<v Speaker 1>ran into, or what that guy told someone you kind

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<v Speaker 1>of respect. You can dress this up by being an optimist.

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<v Speaker 1>You can dress this up by pretending that you thought

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<v Speaker 1>they would extrapolate from here, that these companies would just

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<v Speaker 1>work it out, that they were just like Uber, that

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<v Speaker 1>they were just like Amazon Web services, that they would

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<v Speaker 1>innovate and contribute you so much the economy based on

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<v Speaker 1>the things that they told you that they wanted you

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<v Speaker 1>to repeat, so their investors would give them more money.

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<v Speaker 1>You can pretend that all of this made sense at

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<v Speaker 1>any goddamn time, but you know you either half asked

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<v Speaker 1>it or you're lying to yourself at this point. And

0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.160
<v Speaker 1>I understand also that there are some people writing about

0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:54.280
<v Speaker 1>this who maybe don't want to write such fantastical things.

0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.559
<v Speaker 1>They feel pressured or they're scared, And I actually understand

0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the fear. Then, when everyone around you is pissed down

0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 1>pants and they're saying, why haven't you pissed your pants?

0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.080
<v Speaker 1>Perhaps you wouldn't want to do it. But if everyone's

0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.319
<v Speaker 1>screaming at you, what are you meant to do? If

0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.120
<v Speaker 1>your editors are saying write a positive AI story, if

0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:14.120
<v Speaker 1>your editors are saying that thirteen percent of people in

0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 1>the Stanford there was this. Sorry, I'm actually going to

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.520
<v Speaker 1>reframe this point and not retake it, because this is important.

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:21.839
<v Speaker 1>There was a study that went out that said that

0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.560
<v Speaker 1>thirteen percent I think there's a thirteen percent drop in

0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.800
<v Speaker 1>jobs that were affected by AI, and that this was

0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 1>proof that AI was taking these jobs. When you look

0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.679
<v Speaker 1>at this goddamn study, you can see that it doesn't

0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.360
<v Speaker 1>actually prove that AI was involved and says that yeah,

0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:42.720
<v Speaker 1>thirteen percent of come of career paths and jobs that

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.480
<v Speaker 1>were somehow being replaced by AI were dropping, and as

0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.440
<v Speaker 1>the result, AI was involved. It seems like a fumbled point,

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.439
<v Speaker 1>but what it actually just said was that there was

0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.840
<v Speaker 1>a thirteen percent drop in certain employment and we'd like

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:58.040
<v Speaker 1>AI to be involved. So it's on some level, I

0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 1>realize i'm ranting. I realize I'm going a little bit offscript.

0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm just fucking tired of this. I'm tired because even now,

0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.319
<v Speaker 1>even today, even as you look at these companies burning

0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.560
<v Speaker 1>all this money, even as you look at the fact

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.080
<v Speaker 1>that there are no real returns here, and when you

0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.280
<v Speaker 1>look at the products, you can see they don't really

0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 1>do anything super futuristic. Even now, there are people who

0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:25.320
<v Speaker 1>still talk to me and repeatedly say shit like, well,

0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.599
<v Speaker 1>what if you're wrong, What if you're wrong about this? Well? Ed?

0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 1>What if you turn around? And then the computer wakes

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:33.440
<v Speaker 1>up and says, I love you, Ed, I love you.

0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Nothing happens because that won't happen, And we're living a lie.

0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.600
<v Speaker 1>And we built our economy on a lie. And it's scary.

0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.880
<v Speaker 1>It's scary because the economy is built on data center

0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 1>growth and It's scary because so much of journalism just

0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:53.560
<v Speaker 1>missed this. They just missed it. And I myself have

0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:55.960
<v Speaker 1>done very well as a result of this, because I've

0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.520
<v Speaker 1>been elucidating hundreds of thousands words at a time, hours

0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:02.520
<v Speaker 1>a podcast a time. So I'm doing fine. I guess.

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>I don't have any stock positions in this crap. I'm

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:09.199
<v Speaker 1>not investing. I'm not fiscally profiting off of this, but

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 1>my career is doing well, I guess. But on some level,

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.439
<v Speaker 1>we've seen that at the highest levels of journalism there

0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 1>are people who are willing to peddle bullshit. And as

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:23.720
<v Speaker 1>this falls apart, as this collapses, there must be a

0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 1>point at which people are held accountable for lying because

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.120
<v Speaker 1>it is lying. And I believe the majority of journalists

0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:32.120
<v Speaker 1>are not trying to lie. I don't think that they

0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 1>are deliberately doing this. I think they are weasel wording

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.200
<v Speaker 1>around stuff so that they don't stand out from their

0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.080
<v Speaker 1>peers and get in trouble and face peer pressure for

0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:45.080
<v Speaker 1>not falling behind the AI bubble cycle. Except everyone's gonna

0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:49.120
<v Speaker 1>look fucking stupid if this collapses. If I'm right, everyone's

0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:52.200
<v Speaker 1>gonna look really silly, and you can feel however you

0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 1>feel about me. This isn't about anyone specific other than

0:14:56.200 --> 0:15:00.600
<v Speaker 1>the very obvious hard forky folks. But if you're a

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>journous listening, this probably isn't abalue. What it is about, however,

0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:08.200
<v Speaker 1>is the truth, and it is about the fact that

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:13.480
<v Speaker 1>everyone can say something that's wrong. And we as people

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 1>that report the truth, ostensibly must look at this when

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 1>it collapses, and I really do think it will, and

0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:23.520
<v Speaker 1>we must take an account of what has been said

0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 1>and how it has been said, of how many affordances

0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 1>were given to people like Sam Altman and Wario Ama Day,

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 1>of how many people said, wow, AI is going to

0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 1>get more powerful. We must take an account of why

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.600
<v Speaker 1>it was said it would get more powerful, and if

0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.200
<v Speaker 1>there was no reason to other than I think it

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 1>is number is going up that these people keep telling

0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>me they have met smart people in the valley with

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 1>tears in their eyes, big strong men that told them

0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:55.040
<v Speaker 1>that AGI was coming. If that is the flimsy, fucking

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 1>reasoning we have used to send our economy into the toilet,

0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.800
<v Speaker 1>which is what I fear, we should all be goddamn

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 1>ashamed of ourselves. I'm not. I'm not ashamed because I've

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 1>admitted what I am from the very goddamn beginning, which

0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>is just a guy with a microphone and a fucking blog,

0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 1>and I'm doing my best out here to tell the truth.

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:16.120
<v Speaker 1>If I am wrong, if I am truly wrong, if

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:19.000
<v Speaker 1>I got all of this wrong, and AGI comes and

0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:22.360
<v Speaker 1>the computer eats me whole and shits me out like Kirby,

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:24.280
<v Speaker 1>then I will eat crow and I will tell you

0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 1>why I'm wrong in detail. Do you think other people

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 1>will do the same when the bubble bursts? Do you

0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.840
<v Speaker 1>think that these people will hold themselves accountable or do

0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.240
<v Speaker 1>you think they will sweep this under the fucking rug.

0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:42.160
<v Speaker 1>I think they will, and I don't believe listeners should

0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 1>let them, and I will not be letting them either.

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.840
<v Speaker 1>This isn't going to be an industry takedown, nor will

0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:52.680
<v Speaker 1>one be coming in the future, but I think journalism

0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.880
<v Speaker 1>needs to do a great deal better. And my frustration

0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:00.040
<v Speaker 1>is that in the end of all of this, the

0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.800
<v Speaker 1>people that will get hurt will be regular people. The

0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:08.600
<v Speaker 1>environmental destruction cannot be unwritten, the theft cannot be undone.

0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:11.880
<v Speaker 1>No class action suit can make up for the art directors,

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 1>the translators, the transcribers who are losing their jobs to

0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:18.800
<v Speaker 1>this right now, and who will even if these things

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:23.200
<v Speaker 1>become too expensive to actually run at scale from here

0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:26.520
<v Speaker 1>on it, which is very possible. At some point, the

0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 1>price pressure on these careers as they come back will

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 1>match the price of the AI, not the price of

0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 1>the jobs that they had before. The labor destruction has

0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 1>already happened on a much smaller level than they want

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 1>you to believe it, but it has happened. But fundamentally,

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.719
<v Speaker 1>the AI bubble has damaged the concept of the truth

0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:48.560
<v Speaker 1>and has damaged the concept of what reporting is meant

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:52.120
<v Speaker 1>to do, because an alarming amount of reporting has been

0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:55.399
<v Speaker 1>there to prove the AI bubble was real, rather than

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:59.639
<v Speaker 1>prove what was actually real, to actually hold the accountable powerful,

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.600
<v Speaker 1>to actually make sure that the truth was being said,

0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.240
<v Speaker 1>even if the truth was ikey, even if the truth

0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:08.239
<v Speaker 1>was wow. Tens of billions of dollars each quarter are

0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.800
<v Speaker 1>going into GPUs for products that only lose money, for

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:15.480
<v Speaker 1>products that don't really resemble actual labor, and thus can

0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 1>never do any of the things that people are promising.

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:23.600
<v Speaker 1>And I like to believe that most people here mean well,

0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 1>that they've just been going on with the market consensus

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:29.040
<v Speaker 1>and I can understand that when everyone's honking in the

0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.240
<v Speaker 1>same way, do you want to oink? Do you want

0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.119
<v Speaker 1>to stand out? At a time when journalists have a

0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:40.040
<v Speaker 1>tough time keeping their jobs as it is, I blame

0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:43.080
<v Speaker 1>the people on the top. I blame the people with

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:48.760
<v Speaker 1>the largest megaphones. I blame the people who are constantly

0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:51.600
<v Speaker 1>talking about this as the future and the people that

0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:56.600
<v Speaker 1>have derision for those who wouldare critique the powerful. And

0:18:56.680 --> 0:19:01.840
<v Speaker 1>if I'm right, really, if I'm right, there must be

0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:05.240
<v Speaker 1>some degree of accountability within journalism. There has to be

0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:09.280
<v Speaker 1>an apology to readers and listeners and viewers. There won't

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:13.560
<v Speaker 1>be there, never will be there, never is, but something

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 1>has to change once the bubble bursts. And if i'm again,

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.920
<v Speaker 1>if I'm wrong, I'll explain why I don't do this

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:22.879
<v Speaker 1>to be right, I do it because I enjoy it,

0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:25.159
<v Speaker 1>and I'm very grateful you've give me your time. This

0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:26.760
<v Speaker 1>is meant to be a regular five to ten minute

0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>monologue and it's going to go over twenty minutes. But

0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:34.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm frustrated, as you can tell, I'm furious. I'm furious

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.160
<v Speaker 1>because the markets will take a nasty shit after this,

0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:41.199
<v Speaker 1>and once the markets realize that big tech doesn't have

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.719
<v Speaker 1>any other ideas, and the one idea they had that

0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:48.159
<v Speaker 1>they've been wanking off about for years was nothing. Was

0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:51.320
<v Speaker 1>a myth that burned millions or billions of dollars. The

0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.120
<v Speaker 1>markets are not going to trust the tech industry anymore.

0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 1>They're not going to trust them as the ultimate growth vehicles.

0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:01.000
<v Speaker 1>What do you think that does the startup funding? What

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:05.400
<v Speaker 1>do you think that does two jobs in tech? Nothing good?

0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:10.639
<v Speaker 1>Nothing good at all. I want a better world, and

0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:13.480
<v Speaker 1>I think you do too. I'm very grateful for your time.

0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 1>It's been a little different. I realized this week. Next

0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:19.560
<v Speaker 1>week we'll have Steve from Gamers Nextus, who will be

0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:22.960
<v Speaker 1>talking about the GPU black market in China and of

0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 1>course the things that Bloomberg has done to pull down

0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 1>that video. And then after that, I'm gonna have a

0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:32.680
<v Speaker 1>three part episode about how to argue with AI boosters

0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:34.920
<v Speaker 1>because it's about time we take the walter to these

0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 1>fucking people. Thank you for listening.