1 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Yea. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Joining 5 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: us now is Peter Cheer from Academy Securities Pizzas In 6 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: a market but remarkable situation. Tom and I are talking 7 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: about these market notes coming from Goldman Roaring Twenties, coming 8 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: from JP Morgan Market Nirvana, and here we are confronting 9 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 1: two serious issues. Want to contested election down in Washington, 10 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: d C. Which people are striking off, and two COVID 11 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 1: is still a thing in America. It's becoming a bigger 12 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:53,959 Speaker 1: thing again. Pete, Yeah, it's definitely deteriorating. And I can 13 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: see the point we started writing about a month a 14 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: half ago that we could see the economy doing much 15 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: better by the end of one then even started at 16 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: But I think there's a lot to get through. First, 17 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: we really need to know we're gonna get stimulus, and 18 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: not just band aid stimulus, but real infrastructure spending. And yes, 19 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: we had some really positive us on the vaccine. I 20 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: think it's going to take a little while. So right 21 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: now I'm a little bit barish in the near term 22 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: because I think there's too many hurdles for the market 23 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: across and everyone got a little bit too bullish in 24 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: the past week. Peter Cheer, is the market pricing in 25 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: a Biden presidency? I mean, the way I look at 26 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: it is the market is looking at as John says, 27 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: well out into two thousand twenty one, and they're not 28 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: looking I would suggest to a Trump two thousand twenty one. Well, 29 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: I think we still have to accept accept that at 30 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: this point it looks like it's going to be Biden, 31 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: that he's going to get through that. We still have 32 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: the Senate race that's gonna come up, and those runoffs 33 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: are important, and I just don't see how we get 34 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,559 Speaker 1: meaningful stimulus before then, And there's so many uncertainties. Although 35 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: I firmly believe we will get that infrastructure spending, there's 36 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: a lot to go on before then. So again, markets 37 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: I think are a little bit complacent right now, a 38 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: little bit looking, you know, too far ahead, and maybe 39 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: you've got to focus on the here and now a 40 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: little bit more where there are contestity elections. There are 41 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: issues and the vaccine unfortunately is not here yet. Were 42 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 1: the gyrations you've seen the last week, if you recalibrated 43 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: your sector choices here Mr Constant and Goldman clearly has 44 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: done that. Maybe he's making some institutionally easy calls like 45 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: the OsO, N E, S G and all that, But 46 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: Parson out financial cyclicals and the rest. What are you 47 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: looking at as being still movable into next year? So 48 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: we have really liked what we've been calling the have 49 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: not so those sectors that were left behind, you know, 50 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: whether it's small casts, whether it's value, whether it's financials, 51 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: I think those are canna come, you know, and do 52 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: very well. And I think big tech is canna be 53 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: challenged a little bit, in part because I think this 54 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: kind of scenario of work from home forever is going 55 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: to dissipate, and you've got some valuation issues there and 56 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: then even you know, I like the financials a lot, 57 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: and I think one thing that's been missed through this 58 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: whole talk is a lot of people talk about the 59 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: shape of the yield curve. Yes, that's good for financials, 60 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: but you're still having a robust housing sector, which tends 61 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: to be good for financials, and financials took a lot 62 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: of loan lost reserves. I think if we're near the 63 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: end of the pandemic our ability to deal with it, 64 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: you won't see those long lost reserves increase anymore, and 65 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: you may actually see some release. So I think financials 66 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 1: can do very well. They're very underweight. So those are 67 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: sectors that I've been looking to and I expect this 68 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: have not out performance to continue. Hey, let's talk about 69 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: the treasury Markey. You mentioned it briefly. Their tenure yields, 70 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: of course at the upper end of the range of 71 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: the last five six months, but market close today, But 72 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: here we are at about ninety seven basis points on 73 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: a ten year yield. How much oxygen is that above 74 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: this level page I think there's a decent amount. I 75 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: think we get towards on the tenure. I think we 76 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: as we break through one percent, you'll see some more 77 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: selling pressure. You'll see kind of people pile into the trade. 78 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: I think that inflation hopes remain, especially if infrastructure talk 79 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: comes up, and positions just again fairly awful. Everyone got 80 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: so bullish again on the right side of things. I 81 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: think we had towards one I don't think we get 82 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: much above that because the FED will job own it down. Well, Pete, 83 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: that's what I wanted to build on as well, not 84 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: just the jewel binne from the Fed, but how the 85 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: market would respond to that too. The last couple of 86 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: days clearly an index sector story for the equity market. 87 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: At some point, you have to believe with a move 88 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: up in tenure treasury yields, it starts to take a 89 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: bite out of broad a risk appetite. Do you think 90 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: one is where we get it done. I think we've 91 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: already started seeing that, and I think as we move 92 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: towards one ten, you'll see continued pressure, especially on some 93 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: of the names that have really relied on this belief 94 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: that the FED is here forever, that rates are gonna 95 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: remain permanently low. I think the markets as a whole 96 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 1: can adapt to it. I don't think we see a 97 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: massive sell off, but it will weigh on the market. 98 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: Peter Lesa emails in from fifteen Central Park West and 99 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 1: she's asking about the gloom that's out there right now. 100 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: What is the level of gloom and is that a 101 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: wall of worry that will really help us make a 102 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: David Cousten like move. I don't think so at all. Actually, 103 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: I think the doom kind of completely dissipated with the action, 104 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 1: and my streams that follow became incredibly bullish. Everyone was bullish. 105 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: So I asked, that's part of why I think we're 106 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,799 Speaker 1: seeing this rotation, we're seeing some of these sectors fall down. 107 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: Is everyone got two bullish post election, and now the 108 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: reality sits in and you know, let's think about it. 109 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: Everyone's kind of talking about how great this is for 110 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: d C and all these things. DC often struggles to 111 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: function at the best of times. It doesn't feel like 112 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: the best of times in DC right now. Just for 113 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: the record, for our listeners, our audience worldwide, LISTA does 114 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: not live at fifteen Central Park West. Just in case 115 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 1: anyone is going to go and try and find Lisa 116 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: brown Is, just leave her alone tonight, Tom Hey, the 117 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: just to wrap this up, this secrety market. You like 118 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: the half nots in this stock market, right, but you 119 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: also say you're nervous about in the next couple of months. 120 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: I understand that. I understand. Why where do you go 121 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 1: for the protection? The downside protection? Where'd you get it from? 122 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: So I think right now you're supposed to be selling 123 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: the winners you're supposed to maybe invested, so you want 124 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: to play this cautiously. I think you're looking for a dip. 125 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: I think you're looking for that where the market kind 126 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: of gets disappointed and everything sells off and we don't 127 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: get the rally like we've had the past couple of 128 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: days where you really have strength in the Dow Russell 129 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: too thousand and weakness in big tech. I think you 130 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: get a period of time where everything moves down, and 131 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: that's when you want to reinvest heavily, but really focus 132 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: on loading up on those have not stocks. Paint the 133 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 1: grace to cash up as Securities pay. We appreciate your 134 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: time and paint it just finally before we let you go. 135 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 1: I know that your firm a huge amount of veterans 136 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: in working for you over Academy Paint. Can you just 137 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 1: spake to that on a dilight today place. Yeah. So 138 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: it's been a real pleasure working with Academy Securities were 139 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 1: about eighty people were service disabled. Vectoran owned our entire 140 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: management structures veterans about the firm, our veterans, and I 141 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: also have the pleasure that we work with what we 142 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: call the geopolitical Intelligence Group, which is fourteen retired generals 143 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 1: and admirals. So they provide a lot of geopolitical context 144 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: that sometimes in its own right is very worthwhile and 145 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: sometimes it really meshes into what we're doing on the macro. 146 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,799 Speaker 1: It's been incredibly helpful when we've been dealing with China 147 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: and arcticols. On China, it's been a pleasure are with 148 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: working with these people. Everyone's been great. The service they 149 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: provided this country is awesome and I'm happy to be 150 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: a part of it. Pay to fantastic work. Fantastic workover Academy, 151 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: appreciate your time. Really really cool for John and I 152 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: and for Lisa, this is, without question our interview of 153 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: the day on the pandemic. Lawrence Goston is with Georgetown University. 154 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: He is definitive on our public health, on our public 155 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: health law and I might point out our transitions amid pandemic. 156 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: Dr Goston a few statistics. Milwaukee hospitalizations up five times, 157 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: the fourteen day national trend of death up twenty three percent. 158 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: We are back to April fifteen in terms of hospitalizations 159 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: across this nation. Is it worse now or was it 160 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: worse then? Well, I think it's unquestionably worse now. I 161 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: mean it was a shock to our system. Then, you know, 162 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: we we we we literally didn't expect it. But now, um, 163 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: we're going into the winter. Um we've got celebratory dinners. 164 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: You're just talking about your Thanksgiving. We've got Thanksgiving, We've 165 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: got Christmas, Hanka other festivals coming up. People are going 166 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: to be indoors. They're fatigued, they don't really want to 167 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: do it. And frankly, um, the Trump administration is basically 168 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: given up and we're just kind of sitting there waiting 169 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: for the vaccine, and the virus is not waiting. The 170 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: viruses you know, it's all around us, and it's very transmissible. 171 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: I'm very worried. As an aside, professor, you are invited 172 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: the Keen household for Thanksgiving. I'm cooking, and that's a 173 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: public health risks you don't have. As long as you 174 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: don't have the lead pellets say that, I'm fine, gusted. 175 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,959 Speaker 1: I really want to point out something when all else fails. 176 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: Fancy suits and ties and dresses form a task force. 177 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: If Mr Biden does a task force, what does it? 178 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: And you could be on it? What is a task force? 179 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 1: Do you know? It advises the president um. And you know, Frankly, 180 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: you know, I know everybody on on on the is 181 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: advisory task for US and I and and they're they're 182 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: all very very good people. And we had good people 183 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: on the on the Trump test for US. We had 184 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: you know, Tony Faucce, you had people Deborah Burke, CDC people. 185 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 1: But you know, the difference is the tone from the top. 186 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: You know, Biden is going to say mask up distance, 187 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 1: no gatherings. UM. Whether that's going to have any effect now, 188 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 1: I don't know, because it's so deeply ingrained in our culture. 189 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: It's like a mask is an icon. Now either you're 190 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: for it or you're against it. And so I just think, 191 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: you know, we're sitting ducks until, um, we can get 192 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: a vaccine. I have to say the Fiser vaccine result 193 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: exceeded my most optimistic hopes. I just never expected to 194 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: see a ninety percent effectiveness rate. Professor, that's the good news. 195 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: Let's talk about what we're grappling with right now. We've 196 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,079 Speaker 1: got this vaccine on the horizon. I want to understand 197 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: from you. You've talked a little bit about the federal response, 198 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: the state level response from Massachusetts, from Utah, from New 199 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: Jersey just a couple of days ago. What more can 200 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: they do and what should they be doing? And if 201 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: they don't, what trajectory do you think we're on? Well, 202 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: you know, the states have only limited powers because people 203 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: are traveling and they're going to travel for holidays as well, 204 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: and they're trying to have quarantines and testing requirements for 205 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: people coming into the state. But that's not always very 206 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: feasible because you've got them coming in by cars, trucks, 207 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: every every possible means, including plane and train. UM. So 208 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: I think you know what what they can do UM 209 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: is not open bars, not open restaurant. We should have 210 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 1: no indoor bars or dining. UM. We should really make 211 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: sure that people understand that these indoor law celebratory gatherings 212 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: are big spreaders of the virus UM and there needs 213 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: to be clear and cons messaging. That's basically all we 214 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: can do right now. Professor, I want to go back 215 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: to John Rawls and almost a theory of medical justice, 216 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: if you will, And we don't need to get all 217 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: philosophical here, but the great divide in America seems to 218 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: be people that say, at no cost, we need to 219 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: frame a public health policy where we don't kill a 220 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: lot of old people versus other people saying the economy 221 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,319 Speaker 1: has got to move forward. You know, if the sacrifice 222 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 1: is a bunch of old people frankly like you and 223 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: me and not young pharaoh, well that's the price we pay. 224 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: What kind of theory of justice is between those two, Well, 225 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: I mean the first one, you know, the idea that 226 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: you know, the great Barrington declaration of just you know, 227 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: letting it go, letting it run wild, but just save 228 00:11:55,000 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: the elderly and and and and the disabled people is 229 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: is I've never seen anything like it before, because when 230 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: we talk about her immunity, we're talking about vaccines. We're 231 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: not talking about letting potentially dangerous fatal virus, you know, 232 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 1: spread like wildfire across the population. And I really do 233 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: think that the the economy versus COVID is a very 234 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: false choice because if you look at the economies that 235 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: have started to really bounce back, mostly in East Asia, China, 236 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: places like that, Um, they've done it by keeping the 237 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: coronavirus under control and having really rigorous measures there that 238 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: you know, they locked down originally, but then they got 239 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: on top of it. That's what we need to do. 240 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: It's the only way we're going to open up our economy. 241 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: Otherwise people are just going to be afraid to shop, 242 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: to go to restaurants, bars, movie theaters, um and and 243 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,719 Speaker 1: we'll just you know, stagnate. And that's what's going to 244 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: happen until we get a vaccine. The professor just the 245 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 1: final question for me, and ask this of you with 246 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: the greatest of respect for the work you do. If 247 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: some people tune into this today and hear you say 248 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 1: things like close the restaurants, close the bars, and they 249 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,079 Speaker 1: look up at the TV, they listen to the radio 250 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: and think, here we go again. Someone telling me that 251 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: I can't go back to work, I can't earn money 252 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: because of a pandemic that so far hasn't touched me. 253 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:26,079 Speaker 1: What's your message for them? No, I I totally understand that. 254 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: You know. My message for them is is that we 255 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: want the economy to go well, but we don't want 256 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: to have extraordinarily high risk environments. So indoor bars where 257 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: people are drinking, they're getting close, they're losing their inhibitions. 258 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: We see it just spreading like wildfire. It will go 259 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: to your parents and your grandparents, and so you know, 260 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 1: we can't always think about me. We have to think 261 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: about the US, and I can say that in countries 262 00:13:55,920 --> 00:14:00,080 Speaker 1: that have done well, they have opened up their on 263 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: me a lot faster than us. Look what we've done 264 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: in America hasn't worked so far, our kin, Our economy 265 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: is not booming UM, and the reason for that is 266 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: we haven't gotten this virus under control. Professor. We appreciate 267 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 1: your time this morning and look forward to having you 268 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: back soon. Lawrence Gustin, Georgetown University Professor. Right now, any 269 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: equity markets, Alicia Levine with b n Y Melon, really 270 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: quite good at dovetailing quantitative into the fundamental outlook on 271 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: the market. Alicia Levine, get quantitative for me right now, 272 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: looking at something like price to cash flow, price to revenues, 273 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: price to earnings. Is this market cheap ready to launch higher? 274 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: Or are you still cautious? So I actually am very optimistic. 275 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: I mean, we had we had two major game changing events. 276 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: We had the election, which probability wise is going to 277 00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: produce a less activist government, then the market probably would 278 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: have been comfortable with UM in the form of split government. 279 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: And even if the Georgia races produce a fifty Senate, 280 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 1: you still have some conservative Democrats that may not go 281 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: whole hogs for the full progressive agenda. So there's that, 282 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 1: and then there's a vaccine and it's most so much 283 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: that it may be available by the end of the year, 284 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: which we knew. It's the efficacy, which means people are 285 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: going to take it, more likely to be willing to 286 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: take it, and you can get to some sort of 287 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: immunity faster because if the efficacy holds up. Therefore, the 288 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: chart on the SMP looks great. It looks like it's 289 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: about the power higher. It's tested. It's held the third 290 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: two hundred level during three times. It keeps them working 291 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: out this way to hundred. It looks like it's going 292 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: to move higher. My one world of caution is if 293 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: you wouldn't q q cuose it's making lower highs. So 294 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: if I'm going to be the skunk at the party, 295 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 1: the skunk at the party is the cute too cute 296 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: start doesn't look as solid as the SMP does. And 297 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: to the extent that these large cap tex docks are, 298 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: you know, producing so much of the price action in 299 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: the SMP, you have to watch that as well. These 300 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: are the tech names and that's that peaked in early September. 301 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: We didn't get back there, Alicia. Many people are asking 302 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: how much risk there is at the index level if 303 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: Big Tech gets in trouble here. Big Tech did really 304 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 1: wow with a shutdown. Big Tech has done really well 305 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: without a vaccine, kind of continue to do really well 306 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: with a vaccine. Right, So we think in the next 307 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: couple of months, tactically the cyclicals and the value will 308 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: outperform on a relative basis, but you still need text 309 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: to hang in there on some levels. You can't have 310 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: one of those terrible days where dansec dom you know, 311 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: four or five percent, because the SMP will not be 312 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,479 Speaker 1: able to make progress. Then, just because tech is overweighted 313 00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: so much um on the index level, it just has 314 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: to perform a little bit. And as we know going forward, 315 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: going forward, it's your growth names that are really going 316 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: to be carrying the market, not so much value and 317 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 1: cyclical going for it. This is a tactical trade because 318 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: the FED is staying easy and rates are saying well. 319 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: And even if the tenure gets to two percent, which 320 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: is really hard to imagine, your negative your yields are 321 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: still negative until the tenure gets with super set, so 322 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: you're real yields are still negative. So you have a 323 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: lot of truth in the in the trunk here for 324 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: the market moving higher. I just you can't have tech 325 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: fall out of bed. You can't because you'll never get 326 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: the index moving. Yeah, Atlesha, stick with me. I've got 327 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: to do account of things. I want to get to 328 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: the European bond market quickly and pick up on what's 329 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:48,959 Speaker 1: happening in Italy at the moment. The tenure yield just 330 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: rolled over down about five basis points on a session 331 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: now to seventy one basis points on a ten year. 332 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: Here's the why. ECP President Christine Leguard speaking right now 333 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,679 Speaker 1: and alluding to her view the PET, which is the 334 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: pandemic emergency purchase program of the e c B, is 335 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 1: likely to remain the main e c BE tool along 336 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 1: with tautros. Now this is important, Tom because as we 337 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: work our way through that asset purchase program has a 338 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 1: huge amount of flexibility that the traditional asset purchase program 339 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,479 Speaker 1: on the software side of the e c B over 340 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 1: the last few years did not. Her ability to get 341 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 1: the governing Council to stick with her and stick with 342 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 1: that through one and not just go back to the 343 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: old ways. Keep that flexibility gives them a lot of 344 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 1: comfort on the peripheral side of things, which I think 345 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 1: is what the reader crosses right now. You take that headline, 346 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 1: you drop it into the periphery, and you bid up 347 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: Italian bombs. Let's make it simpler. She's saying, they will 348 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: take in less pristine papers, so it's price up. You'll 349 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,959 Speaker 1: down right, they will have the ability, if they so 350 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: wish to maintain that flexibility, to lean into the periphery 351 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: a little bit more tom and maybe not buy as 352 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 1: many buns and buy some more E T p s 353 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: if they need to. You remember back in March when 354 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 1: they said we're not here to close spreads. That headline 355 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 1: right there tells you everything we need to know. They 356 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: are here to close spreads. They know, and this is 357 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 1: the delicate dance played out in Europe, much more cleaning 358 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: than what we're seeing play out of the United States. 359 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: They know that on the fiscal side, that's still work 360 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: to do, and they know to get that work done, 361 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 1: these governments are gonna have to wish you a lot 362 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: more debt. What are they doing. They're keeping interest rate 363 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: costs a whole lot lower. Alicia Levine of B and 364 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: YM Mellen still with us, Alicia, This is the story, 365 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: isn't it. Central banks aren't going to remove themselves from 366 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: the game in one. Things have changed. Used to be 367 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: the case that when things get bad they step in, 368 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 1: and when things get better they'll step away again, and 369 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: twenty one of things get better, they'll still be in 370 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 1: the game. One they that's right. I mean, that's also 371 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: fuel for the market. You know, the discussion of the 372 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: of the average inflation targeting was precisely her moments that 373 00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 1: we're in today when the expectations of growth pick up 374 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: a notch, the expectations for inflation pick pick up a notch, 375 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 1: and the you know, the announcements over the summer in 376 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: September were precisely for this moment, saying to the market, 377 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: we are going to stay put and we're going to 378 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: let gross take hold, and we need to heal the 379 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,400 Speaker 1: labor market. It was for moments like that we're in today, 380 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 1: and so we have winded our back here. Asia grites 381 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: to catch up as always, and Allen, well, I'm glad 382 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: piano matters because that is what is about His father 383 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: was a legend. There's no other way to put it, 384 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: including starting out when at an older age twelve years old. 385 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: I believe on his instrument. I think of Lust and 386 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: Harris at the Carlisle studying under Marseillais years and years 387 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: ago in a brought on a generation of people who 388 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: guess what they rein into jazz and drove it forward 389 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,640 Speaker 1: into the modern age. David Rubinstein peer to peer conversations 390 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: and Mr Rubinstein digresses away from the politics and the 391 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: moment with a gentleman from Lincoln Center. David, what did 392 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: you learn in speaking to Mr Marsilas? Of course I 393 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: learned saturdly that his father had died, and his father 394 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: was an incredible jazz pianist, and he produced four sons 395 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: who are also jazz musicians. Witness maybe the best known 396 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: of them for the things he's got a Lincoln Center. 397 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 1: But also he was like a classical music musician as well. 398 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: He actually won a Grammy Award one year for classical music. 399 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: In the same year he also want a Grammy Award 400 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: for jazz. Jazz is probably the most American type of 401 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: music we had. It was invented this country. It's personified 402 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 1: by so many people in this country, and it's one 403 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: of our great exports in the music world hip hop, 404 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: you could also says invented here, but jazz were almost 405 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: a century has been the most American, pure American form 406 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 1: of music. Which way would he like jazz to go? 407 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 1: We talk of the death of opera, they're all aging. 408 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: We talk of philanthropists like yourself trying to save classical music. 409 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: I don't believe jazz needs saving. But which way does 410 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: he suggests jazz will go? Well, he thinks jazz needs 411 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: to be better known. Of course, it's not known by everybody, 412 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 1: and it's an acquired taste. But it's sadly he and 413 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,679 Speaker 1: other musicians today aren't able to perform as much because 414 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,360 Speaker 1: of COVID. So he did come back from a tour recently, 415 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,439 Speaker 1: but it was unusual. Usually musicians right now all across 416 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: the country are not able to perform right now because 417 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 1: there aren't really live audiences. And it's in a sad 418 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: situation for the performing artists in our country right now 419 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: because a lot of them just don't get income unless 420 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: they perform, and it's hard for them to perform right now. 421 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 1: He's an unusual situation, though, because he's so well known, 422 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: he's doing so many different things. But he worries about 423 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 1: so many other jazz musicians and other musicians who cannot 424 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 1: perform right now. David tell us about the sanctity of copyright. 425 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: Carlyles looked at this. I know Blackstone has been involved 426 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 1: as well. Jazz musicians survive and copyright. The copyright rates 427 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: in Europe are much more artists friendly. Does he feel 428 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 1: that people can get paid into the future. Well, we 429 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: didn't quite address that, but we did talk about something 430 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,479 Speaker 1: very important related to that, which is that jazz is 431 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 1: something that is very um uh that changes a lot. 432 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: In other words, when you're a jazz musician, you have 433 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 1: copyrighted music, but you riff a lot, you keep playing 434 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 1: a little bit longer than you may be supposed to 435 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: change what you were what was written for you. It's 436 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: a it's a musician music form that evolves a bit, 437 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 1: and uh, it's not as easy to copy right in 438 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 1: some respects. But on the other hand, um, I do 439 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: feel that jazz music is probably not as well known 440 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: in all parts of the country as it is and 441 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: let's say New Orleans or Chicago or New York, but 442 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 1: it's incredibly popular outside the United States as well. Also, 443 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: I wanted to point out that, uh, he has dealt 444 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: with racism, as all jazz musicians who are black, no 445 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: doubt have done, and all all blacks, I presumably have 446 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: done as well. And even though he's famous, he does 447 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: talk about in the interview the fact that he still 448 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: feels discriminated against and he felt that when he was 449 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: growing up and segregated South. So although he's a famous musician, 450 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: he hasn't escaped the racism that people of his race 451 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: have suffered in their David Goldman Sachs today when exceptionally 452 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: positive on two thousand, twenty one and twenty two, and 453 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: there's the noise of a vaccine of course, this small 454 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: matter of an election that we're contesting right now. Does 455 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: even Rubinstein have an optimism like some of the strategists 456 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: looking forward two years? I think the vaccine news is 457 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: positive recently, and I do think that at some point 458 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 1: in one we will begin to get vaccinated, uh sufficiently 459 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: to make us be able to go back to work 460 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: or enable us to go back to work. And I 461 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: do think the election will get resolved in the not 462 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 1: too distant future in some way. Um. It's interesting to me, uh, 463 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 1: you know, President Trump um is still contesting it, but 464 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 1: you know, I've often thought the best job in the 465 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: United States as being a former president United States. You 466 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: don't have to get blamed for anything, and you can 467 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: do whatever you want. And if you're a former president 468 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 1: United States and you maybe can run again, that's even 469 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 1: a better job. So if I were he, I would 470 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: probably say, geez, I might be a former president, I 471 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: might run again, so um, he might look at it 472 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: that way. But in any event, I hope this will 473 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,120 Speaker 1: be resolved and not to distant future. David Rubinstein, thank 474 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: you so much, pure pure conversations. A digression here to 475 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: Winton Marseillis in the future of jazz. Look for that 476 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: tonight at nine pm across all of Bloomberg. Really looking 477 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: forward to that a conversation. Thanks for listening to the 478 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 479 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 480 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 481 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.