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Speaker 1: And this might be a little bit t m I

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Speaker 1: for our listeners, but I'm really allergic to mosquitoes, and

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Speaker 1: i feel like I'm also really attractive to mosquitoes. Yes,

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Speaker 1: this episode is brought to you by nat X, the

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Speaker 1: Binary Options Exchange. Binary options let you limit your risk

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Speaker 1: risk and may not be appropriate for all investors. Hi,

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Speaker 1: and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark ut podcast about the

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Speaker 1: global economy. It is Thursday, February fourth. I'm Tory Stillwell

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Speaker 1: and economics reporter with Bloomberg News and DC and I

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Speaker 1: am fine solo today. My co host Acky Edo and

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Speaker 1: Dan Moss are running around being busy see people. But

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Speaker 1: we do have a very special episode for you guys today.

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Speaker 1: It is all about a topic that fills me with

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Speaker 1: dread at the mirror mention of it, mosquitoes. And to

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Speaker 1: sort of shed more light on that, we have brought

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Speaker 1: in a super expert as my guest and also sort

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Speaker 1: of co host for the episode. Um, we have Don

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Speaker 1: Shepherd joining us from Brandeis University. He's a health economist

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Speaker 1: who has focused on the control of mosquitoes in his research. Professor,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for the invitation to be on the show. I know

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Speaker 1: lots of people who get a few mosquito bites during

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Speaker 1: the summer or whatever. They think they're annoying. And this

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Speaker 1: might be a little bit t m I for our listeners,

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Speaker 1: but I'm really allergic to mosquitoes, and I feel like

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Speaker 1: I'm also really attractive to mosquitoes. I get bit like

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Speaker 1: no one I know. They terrify me. I have really

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Speaker 1: intense reactions to them. So like anything to do with mosquitoes,

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Speaker 1: I'm not down with. What about you, don, Um, I

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Speaker 1: don't get too many. Frankly, mosquitoes don't want the lucky ones. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I get some. I don't think I have. They

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Speaker 1: don't think I'm allergic to them. They certainly do annoy

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Speaker 1: me when I get them, though I try to avoid

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Speaker 1: them when again, Yeah, my mom calls it that brown sugar.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not I'm not sure that. Well, anyways, why

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Speaker 1: are we talking about mosquitoes? It's probably a pretty easy

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Speaker 1: guess that zeka. It's been in the news this week.

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Speaker 1: The World Health Organization declared ZEKA a global public health emergency,

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Speaker 1: and while they've only deployed that type of warning three

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Speaker 1: times before, this is the latest in a seemingly never

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Speaker 1: ending series of global health scares. We've had a bowler, now, stars,

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Speaker 1: swine flu, MERSA, the list goes on, and ZEKA is

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Speaker 1: mostly transmitted through a certain species of mosquito. Right the

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Speaker 1: am I saying it right? Eighties? Is that how I

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Speaker 1: get the eighties? And Gypti? It's the full name of

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Speaker 1: the mosquito mostly transmits the zico virus, right, And the

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Speaker 1: most common symptoms of ZEKA are fever, rash, joint pain,

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Speaker 1: and from most people who get sick, the illness is

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Speaker 1: pretty mild. It's not um a life threatening injury. But

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Speaker 1: you know, excuse me, illness not injury. But health experts

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Speaker 1: are concerned because the people who appear to be at

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Speaker 1: the highest level of risk from ZEKA are pregnant women.

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Speaker 1: Is that right, Yes, it affects the woman's fetus. So

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Speaker 1: the thing that's really serious about the ZCO virus is

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Speaker 1: the the virus affects the brain of the developing fetus,

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Speaker 1: making the brain and the head smaller, a condition that

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Speaker 1: health experts called micro cepily. Microceptily obviously a big concern here.

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Speaker 1: The baby is born with unusually small skulls, a big worry.

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Speaker 1: And also another another concern here is that there's a

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Speaker 1: lack of vaccines and reliable testing, And in Latin America,

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Speaker 1: where it's spreading rapidly, there's no real immunity in the

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Speaker 1: population because the Americans are being effective for the first time.

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Speaker 1: So what does this have to do with economics, many

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Speaker 1: of our listeners are probably asking themselves right now, And

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Speaker 1: it's actually kind of a lot. As your research has

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Speaker 1: shown um in many Asian, Latin American, and African countries,

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Speaker 1: mosquitoes and the illnesses they carry come with a huge

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Speaker 1: economic costs. And while we're lucky that that's not as

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Speaker 1: much of a risk here in the US, there is

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Speaker 1: research from you that shows that they still significantly reduce

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Speaker 1: our quality of life, so much so that people would

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Speaker 1: be willing to pay a pretty hefty chuck of money

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Speaker 1: to get rid of them. So let's talk more about

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Speaker 1: that if you don't mind, sure, so. The mosquito the

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Speaker 1: transport Zeka fortunately is only on the southern periphery of

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Speaker 1: the United States and occasionally in Hawaii. But a close

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Speaker 1: relative of that mosquito that can stand a cooler climates

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Speaker 1: is throughout the eastern seaboard UH of the United States

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Speaker 1: up through the New York metropolitan area. That one called

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Speaker 1: the eighties albo pictus mosquito, otherwise known as the Asian

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Speaker 1: tiger mosquito sounds appropriately terrifying. Go on so um that

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Speaker 1: mosquito first hitch tike to this country about thirty years

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Speaker 1: ago in used tires that were imported, and the water

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Speaker 1: and the tires provided a perfect breeding spot. And once

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Speaker 1: the tires reached here, the mosquito has become established and

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Speaker 1: continue to to breed in the United States. That mosquito

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Speaker 1: UH doesn't carry disease so far in the United States,

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Speaker 1: although it has in other parts of the world, but

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Speaker 1: has proved to be a major nuisance. It's a daytime

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Speaker 1: biting mosquito and limits people's ability to spend time outdoors. Well.

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Speaker 1: Your research suggested that assuming a person had no budget

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Speaker 1: constraints and got the same amount of satisfaction with every

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Speaker 1: additional hour spent outdoors, A person would be willing to

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Speaker 1: pay almost a thousand dollars to enjoy their yard activities

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Speaker 1: for a thirteen weeks summer period with our mosquitoes. That

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Speaker 1: blew my mind when I read it. I think I

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Speaker 1: would be willing to pay that. I would probably be

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Speaker 1: willing to double. So that economic value of of what

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Speaker 1: somebody are willing to pay UH substantially exceeds the the

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Speaker 1: cost that it would take to control the mosquito, suggesting

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Speaker 1: that a control effort would be economically worthwhile. That's a

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Speaker 1: good point. We we estimated it for each dollar spent

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Speaker 1: on controlling, the economic value in terms of this time

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Speaker 1: enjoyment released would be eight dollars, so an eight a

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Speaker 1: ratio of eight to one for controlling this mosquito. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The respondents and in your research rated the importance of

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Speaker 1: enjoying their outdoor activities without mosquitoes comparable to that of

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Speaker 1: neighborhood safety and higher than that of a clean neighborhood.

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Speaker 1: That's right. We we surveyed residents in New Jersey is

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Speaker 1: part of a demonstration project conducted in collaboration with the

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Speaker 1: U S Department of Agriculture and Rutgers University. And as

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Speaker 1: you are, the summarize found this very high rating of

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Speaker 1: the the nuisance that the mosquito imposed in the value

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Speaker 1: that what people would put on the time free of

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Speaker 1: the Asian tiger mosquito. Well, let's take a quick break

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Speaker 1: and when we come back, I want to switch gears

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Speaker 1: back to Zeke and really start telling the economic costs

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Speaker 1: of healthcare related ones, um and and many others that

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Speaker 1: are sort of related to the idea of illnesses that

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Speaker 1: mosquitoes bear. After we come back from this break, what

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Speaker 1: all from one account and platform. Nat X is a

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Speaker 1: CSTC regulated exchange with transparency, free market data and fairness

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Speaker 1: guaranteed innovations of financial industry needs and nat X already has.

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Speaker 1: That's why we think binary options are the future of trading,

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Speaker 1: and it's here now at n A D e X

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Speaker 1: dot com futures, options and swaps. Trading involves risk and

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Speaker 1: may not be appropriate for all investors. So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the most obvious sort of economic costs. So we

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Speaker 1: seate with mosquitoes, which are the costs associated with the

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Speaker 1: illnesses they carry? Uh don some of your research that

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Speaker 1: you did a few years backed looked at the direct

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Speaker 1: and indirect costs of dangay in eight American and Asian countries.

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Speaker 1: And a little more about dangai for our listeners who

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Speaker 1: might not be familiar. It's a mosquito born viral infection

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Speaker 1: that causes flu like illnesses and if it develops into

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Speaker 1: something severe enough, it can be lethal. There's no real treatment,

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Speaker 1: there's no vaccine to protect against it, and almost half

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Speaker 1: of the world's population is at risk. Yeah. One one

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Speaker 1: update on the vaccine. That's very encouraging that the vaccine

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Speaker 1: has been a formidable scientific challenge and the first vaccine

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Speaker 1: was licensed at the very end of in three countries,

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Speaker 1: and one of those, the Philippines, has said it plans

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Speaker 1: to start to introduce it into its public program. So

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Speaker 1: what you said about no vaccine was was correct as

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Speaker 1: of the last Thanksgiving, but this situation is now starting

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Speaker 1: to improve terrific well, Professor Shephard, your research put the

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Speaker 1: collective economic burden of dinging just those eight countries that

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Speaker 1: you studied at as much as one point eight billion

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Speaker 1: dollars annually. It's a huge number and it's for just

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Speaker 1: eight countries. So how did you go about telling that

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Speaker 1: and arriving at at that figure? Sure, say that, and

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Speaker 1: then we've extended to other countries too to get the burden.

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Speaker 1: Uh one, first twice to look at one case of

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Speaker 1: dinghy illness to understand what the burden is on the

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Speaker 1: health care system. And the so called indirect cost is

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Speaker 1: the value of lost time lost time by a family

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Speaker 1: in which somebody has dangy. So we're um our studies

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Speaker 1: collaborating with researchers in each of the endemic countries has

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Speaker 1: surveyed patients who experienced dinghy to see what medical service

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Speaker 1: as they used, the amounts of money that they spent

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Speaker 1: or their families spent out of pocket buying drugs and supplies,

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Speaker 1: and in many cases they availed themselves of government run

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Speaker 1: healthcare systems. And we looked at what the government spent

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Speaker 1: to run hospitals and clinics that provided treatment and this.

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Speaker 1: The sum of all of these medical services are what

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Speaker 1: are called the direct costs of dangi. Uh. Then we

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Speaker 1: also interviewed people about the time that they lost due

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Speaker 1: to the illness or if it was a child, particularly

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Speaker 1: the time and other family members lost a parent and

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Speaker 1: older siblings having to take care of the child or

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Speaker 1: feel in a task that the that someone else would

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Speaker 1: have done, and so uh calculating the time lost and

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Speaker 1: the value of that is what's called the indirect cost

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Speaker 1: of dangy illness. Wow, and I liked this that that

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Speaker 1: was in UM in your research at was very insightful.

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Speaker 1: So among hospitalized patients, students lost five point six days

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Speaker 1: of school and for those who are working, people who

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Speaker 1: are working, they lost almost ten days of work per average.

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Speaker 1: Daing a episode. This just sounds like a lot, right,

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Speaker 1: It took um. It's a feedby episode, but a nickname

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Speaker 1: for it is bone break fever. I feel fortunate it's

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Speaker 1: a disease I haven't personally had to experience. While it's

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Speaker 1: a feed by illness, it's uh it's an extremely uncomfortable illness.

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Speaker 1: So uh, people have an acute part that's uh typically

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks and then about ten percent of

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Speaker 1: patients will still experience symptoms several months later, where they

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Speaker 1: may have depression or fatigue as a long run consequence

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Speaker 1: of this illness. So if we were to sort of

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Speaker 1: zoom out and think broadly about this, because mosquito born illnesses,

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Speaker 1: it's not just in, it's not just zeka, it's Westnile virus,

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Speaker 1: it's yellow fever, there are more. I mean, how big

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Speaker 1: do you think the total economic costs associated with mosquitoes

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Speaker 1: and the sort of problems that they bring our is it?

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Speaker 1: Is it even possible to put a number on that.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure it's huge. So danghy Is is a virus. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We've estimated that the global cost of danghy per years

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Speaker 1: about nine billion US dollars. Other another major mosquito born

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Speaker 1: disease is a parasitic illness, malaria. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: dollar figure at my fingertips, but that's probably even larger

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Speaker 1: because of the uh uh many many millions of cases

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Speaker 1: of illness and death due to malaria. So mosquito born

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Speaker 1: illnesses are enormous economic cost and society would reap enormous

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Speaker 1: benefits if we're able to fully control them. Right, that

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Speaker 1: was a really important question that I wanted to bring up,

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Speaker 1: so I'm glad he brought us there. I mean, would

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Speaker 1: it be possible to just eradicate mosquito, just wipe them

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Speaker 1: off the face of the planet. Can we do it?

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Speaker 1: So we can dream about that. I think at the moment,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe we have the tools to do that.

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Speaker 1: So one example of a promising product is um a

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Speaker 1: type of insecticide it's called auto dispersal where extremely potent

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Speaker 1: and the mosquito will get will you put it in

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Speaker 1: some containers and then the mosquito will transport that to

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Speaker 1: other breeding sites and would then kill the larvae in

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Speaker 1: another breeding site. So that's is a technique that's it's

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Speaker 1: being used at small scales so far is perfected to

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Speaker 1: the stage that it uh can stop all mosquito breeding,

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Speaker 1: but potentially refinement of that might allow us to eliminate mosquitoes.

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Speaker 1: The challenge has been the mosquitoes are more clever than

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Speaker 1: people hunting mosquitoes, so they find very tiny breeding places

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Speaker 1: that the mosquito can find, uh, and people trying to

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Speaker 1: control the mosquito haven't yet been able to find so uh. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, Singapore is the country that's had the most

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Speaker 1: vigorous mosquito control program in the world and for a

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Speaker 1: couple of decades substantially reduced the burden of mosquito born illness.

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Speaker 1: So they are they trying to eradicate mosquitoes, and Singapore

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Speaker 1: is at their goal, they know. I think they think

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Speaker 1: they realized that that wasn't feasible. They were trying to

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Speaker 1: substantially reduce mosquito born disease, specifically dangy, by keeping the

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Speaker 1: population of mosquitoes very low, and they uh, they did

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Speaker 1: keep it low, but they couldn't eliminate them, and the

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Speaker 1: mosquitoes that were there still there served to transmit diseases,

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Speaker 1: and they were in Singapore's case. The fact that the

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Speaker 1: people became susceptible UH to Dangy meant that a low

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Speaker 1: level of mosquitoes was still enough to allow very nasty

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Speaker 1: outbreaks of this disease, much like the Zica outbreaks that

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Speaker 1: you spoke about in Latin America. So it sounds like

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Speaker 1: they will outlast us on this planet, well, at least

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Speaker 1: for the next decade or two. Maybe if if scientists

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Speaker 1: can come up with new control techniques, UH will be successful.

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Speaker 1: I think the control techniques are are an important thing

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Speaker 1: to think about two in the context of climate change,

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Speaker 1: and and maybe it becomes more urgent to then work

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Speaker 1: on those techniques because UM a couple of things that

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Speaker 1: I looked at said that climate change would allow mosquitoes,

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Speaker 1: who carries certain illnesses to spread to places where they

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Speaker 1: aren't currently. Like you mentioned the eighties, UM and gypti

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Speaker 1: is is in certain states in the Deep South, and

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Speaker 1: they can. They can. They've been found farther north, but

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Speaker 1: that's not really their their home range. It's not really

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Speaker 1: where they do their thing. But if we do have

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Speaker 1: climate change and we get warmer climates and what our climates,

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Speaker 1: that could allow them to have a wider range, right, Danky,

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Speaker 1: thank you. One of our failures in public health, countries

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Speaker 1: that didn't have UM, didn't have mosquitoes or didn't have

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Speaker 1: DANKY have had outbreaks. So in South America, UH, Paraguay

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Speaker 1: as an example, UM and Argentina have seen outbreaks in

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Speaker 1: recent years. In the United States, for many decades, we

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Speaker 1: didn't have dany transmission on the mainland of the United States,

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Speaker 1: but have seen it on the Texas border and in

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Speaker 1: Florida in recent years. So it's climate change. Is one factor.

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Speaker 1: Movement of people is another factor, and so the two

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Speaker 1: the two interact together and have caused this mosquito and

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Speaker 1: the diseases that carry, unfortunately to spread. Well. This has

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Speaker 1: been a fascinating topic. Um. I think that it's really

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Speaker 1: easy to sort of think about the economic costs of mosquitoes.

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Speaker 1: It is just, you know, people getting sick and then

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Speaker 1: us having to take care of them and them having

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Speaker 1: to pay to take care of themselves. But I also

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Speaker 1: really liked your points on sort of missing school, missing work.

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Speaker 1: I'm also picturing in my head people sort of swatting

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Speaker 1: mosquitoes out of their faces while they're working. Productivity perhaps

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Speaker 1: takes a hit, right, both both at nuisance and then

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Speaker 1: more importantly from time that people are ill. They may

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Speaker 1: miss work entirely or not be able to work as

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Speaker 1: productively as they would otherwise. One other statistical uh redun

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Speaker 1: case that's helpful for the show I found the distribution

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Speaker 1: of dingy costs on a global basis. I mentioned the

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Speaker 1: total was about nine billion U S dollars globally of

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Speaker 1: presented in a conference that I presented out in Brazil

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Speaker 1: in November, and of that, about twelve of that is

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Speaker 1: the economic loss for cases that proved to be fatal. Ah,

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Speaker 1: that's a really interesting point. Our costs of hospitalized UH

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Speaker 1: non fatal cases or cases that go to clinics and doctors,

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Speaker 1: and and then there's also a cost of cases that

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Speaker 1: don't seek medical care at all but still experienced illness.

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Speaker 1: And that's about eight percent of the global costs. That's

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Speaker 1: really each of these different settings um UH imposes a

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Speaker 1: cost of of tanking UH that's paid by households, by governments,

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Speaker 1: and by employers. This has been a great conversation, insightful

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Speaker 1: yet very scary. Okay, thank you so much, dot I

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Speaker 1: appreciate it. Well, Thanks Victoria for the chance to talk today,

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Speaker 1: and thanks see you all for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark.

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