1
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:07,400
Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington,

2
00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:12,480
Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve on to San Francisco,

3
00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:17,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the Country Series X Channel one ninety and

4
00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,040
Speaker 1: around the globe. The Bloomberg Radio Plus happened. Bloomberg dot Com.

5
00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning everyone, Bloomberg surveillas from London,

6
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,160
Speaker 1: from New York from a snow bank near Denver. Our

7
00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:33,200
Speaker 1: economic indicators brought you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's

8
00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,120
Speaker 1: time to change the conversation, talk with a broker dealer,

9
00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,599
Speaker 1: I I A. That's ready to listen calle six six

10
00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,159
Speaker 1: four six two three six three eight, or visit Commonwealth

11
00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 1: dot com to learn more. Yeoman's Duty. Vinny Dell Judas

12
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:53,760
Speaker 1: at our Denver headquarters with our economics report, Vinny, twenty

13
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 1: three inches of snow in Broomfield up Boulder Way. Yeah,

14
00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,520
Speaker 1: we're digging out. Tom It that they said the radio

15
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:05,640
Speaker 1: today fifth most snowy day in recorded history in Denver.

16
00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,520
Speaker 1: So we're digging out. Let's look at the economic numbers, though,

17
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,960
Speaker 1: negative numbers across the board on manufacturing Dirble goods orders

18
00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,800
Speaker 1: down two point eight percent, excluding transportation down one percent,

19
00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:22,040
Speaker 1: a gauge of capital spending down one point eight percent.

20
00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,400
Speaker 1: Jobless claims meantime, they're up a bit, up to two

21
00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,640
Speaker 1: hundred sixty five thousand exit gain of six thousand from

22
00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,720
Speaker 1: the prior week. Again derble goods orders from February across

23
00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,520
Speaker 1: the board week data jobless claims, they're up at the

24
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg first word desk on pity del Let's go back

25
00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:42,680
Speaker 1: to New York and London, Tom and FRANSI thank you

26
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,400
Speaker 1: so much. They safe out in a very very snowy

27
00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 1: and truly the danger of a blizzard denver. I would

28
00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:54,800
Speaker 1: notice francineing the revisions to durable goods. We're pretty moldy.

29
00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,040
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's somewhat moved the market here the

30
00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,800
Speaker 1: tenure yield drives the lower one point six A three.

31
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,280
Speaker 1: But um, this is a soggy set of numbers all

32
00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,400
Speaker 1: in all. Yeah, and we also have jobless claims, right Tom,

33
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,120
Speaker 1: and they climbed a little bit less and forecast. I

34
00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,919
Speaker 1: wonder whether you know you had a great interview yesterday

35
00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,200
Speaker 1: with James Bullard and that and we also heard another

36
00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,919
Speaker 1: official you know, coming hot on the wheels of Janet

37
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,160
Speaker 1: Yellen saying they have to revise downwards, so there are

38
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 1: increases for the possible increases for right high so people

39
00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,000
Speaker 1: are even more nervous when they look at data. Now, Yeah,

40
00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,880
Speaker 1: oil off eight five cents. This is my most eagerly

41
00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,280
Speaker 1: awaited interview of the day. And someone that Francine knows

42
00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,440
Speaker 1: also well, Brendan Brown, is with Mitsubishi UFJ. But that

43
00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 1: barely describes how he has thought about his Europe and

44
00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 1: his United UH Kingdom. It has been a tumultuous weekend.

45
00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:52,520
Speaker 1: Dr Brown, I just can say I'm thrilled to speak

46
00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,720
Speaker 1: to you this morning. As I know Francine, is is

47
00:02:56,160 --> 00:03:00,960
Speaker 1: the tragedy of Brussels something that can co less Europe

48
00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:06,679
Speaker 1: towards a greater United States of Europe. No, I fear

49
00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,800
Speaker 1: it's going to be very much the opposite effect. UM.

50
00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:15,080
Speaker 1: It's going to give more support to those who fear

51
00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:21,359
Speaker 1: the consequences of immigration. UM. And and that's going to increase,

52
00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 1: most likely the forces which would pull Europe apart. Do

53
00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,440
Speaker 1: you think that we're at that point yet, Brendan, I

54
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,119
Speaker 1: know that were there's a lot of news media organization

55
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,600
Speaker 1: saying that this is the end of Shangen this is

56
00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 1: you know, another test for Europe, which means maybe the

57
00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,760
Speaker 1: final straw, but really are are we there is? It's

58
00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,440
Speaker 1: you know, we always find resolves in Europe, sure at

59
00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,600
Speaker 1: the twenty fifth hour, but we find it well. I

60
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:53,360
Speaker 1: think that this is a very slow moving process and

61
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,600
Speaker 1: we've got two big elections next year in France and Germany,

62
00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,160
Speaker 1: and a lot of what we see playing out now,

63
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:04,120
Speaker 1: and of course the Brexit referendum is going in in

64
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:08,320
Speaker 1: slow time. But we've seen from local election results in

65
00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 1: Germany the way the pendulum is shifting, and I think

66
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:14,880
Speaker 1: we we do have to look at the likelihood of

67
00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,520
Speaker 1: a of a postmircal era and the unknown as to

68
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,600
Speaker 1: what that will represent. Tom. We've just heard from our

69
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,840
Speaker 1: chancel here in the UK, George Osborne talking really been

70
00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,039
Speaker 1: grilled by lawmakers, saying he plans to issue a treasury

71
00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:33,400
Speaker 1: Brexit analysis by mid April. Brendan, do you think that

72
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,599
Speaker 1: it will really be that close as this country could

73
00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:40,040
Speaker 1: be on the brink of leaving the EU? Yes? I do.

74
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:44,720
Speaker 1: The forces in that direction are growing, the anti immigration

75
00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:50,520
Speaker 1: as as highlighted further by this week's tragic events, the

76
00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 1: anti establishment movement in all countries and in the UK

77
00:04:56,000 --> 00:05:01,400
Speaker 1: that means anti EU UM and the popularity of some

78
00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 1: of the Brexit people, particularly Mad Johns, and so I

79
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,720
Speaker 1: think these are are all pulling together in that direction.

80
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,800
Speaker 1: Britain review with us how the United Kingdom became part

81
00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:17,719
Speaker 1: of the EU versus Denmark and others. I mean, basically

82
00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:21,400
Speaker 1: they had votes and they were close, but they said no,

83
00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:25,039
Speaker 1: right review what happened in the United Kingdom. But the

84
00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 1: UK entry into EU was into a very different EU

85
00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,960
Speaker 1: from what we now know. It was basically at that

86
00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:35,640
Speaker 1: time a club of six. And there's many pandits looking

87
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,960
Speaker 1: at the referendum back in the mid seventies for parallels

88
00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:43,320
Speaker 1: with the referendum now. But essentially I find these parallels

89
00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,720
Speaker 1: very unconvincing because what we're now looking at is exiting

90
00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:51,719
Speaker 1: UM something quite different. The whole incorporation of Eastern Europe

91
00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,560
Speaker 1: into EMU, which was really the key change in form

92
00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:00,560
Speaker 1: the metamorphosis of EU, only took place um in the

93
00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:06,600
Speaker 1: ninety nineties, and it's been that metamorphosis into East European

94
00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:10,600
Speaker 1: large content of EU, which of course has come or

95
00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 1: brought very much before the whole immigration and the movement

96
00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,880
Speaker 1: of labor is let's come back, Brendan Brown where the

97
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,640
Speaker 1: submitted piece of u f J. We have a lot

98
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:22,760
Speaker 1: to talk about. Uh. I guess on Europe more than anything.

99
00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,920
Speaker 1: I always always any number of topics to speak with

100
00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,800
Speaker 1: Dr Brown about, but certainly after what we saw in Brussels,

101
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:32,719
Speaker 1: it's a an important moment to coalesce. And don't forget

102
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:38,200
Speaker 1: EU interior ministers are meeting today. It as an emergency

103
00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 1: meeting attempting to figure out what to do across the Bloombergers.

104
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,440
Speaker 1: We aggregate news. Looking at the news from Belgium, I'm

105
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 1: going to suggest it's pretty quiet. The Belgian Prime minister

106
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:54,839
Speaker 1: moments ago rejecting the resignation of the Justice manage ministers.

107
00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:59,320
Speaker 1: Some of the emotion seen in that nation. Futures negative twelve,

108
00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:04,760
Speaker 1: dal feastures negative eight seven, the dollar stronger, euro sixty two,

109
00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:09,560
Speaker 1: Yen sixty three. We noticed oil weaker today below thirty nine.

110
00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 1: Well they're thirty nine exactly for West Texas Intermediate and

111
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:23,040
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg surveillance right now. Um, let's get to

112
00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,440
Speaker 1: the news with Michael Varn, Michael, Tom Francing, thank you

113
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,360
Speaker 1: very much. The lawyer for the chief parents attacks suspects,

114
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,400
Speaker 1: says Allah Abdeslam is not fighting extradition to France and

115
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,720
Speaker 1: wants to leave Brussels as quickly as possible, but the

116
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,760
Speaker 1: lawyer says he's asking for a one month delay on

117
00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:44,000
Speaker 1: any transfer while he studies a larger dossier. US Secretary

118
00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 1: of State John Kerry is in Moscow to discuss the

119
00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,000
Speaker 1: Syria and Ukraine crisis. Kerry is meeting with Russian Foregn

120
00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:54,120
Speaker 1: Minister Serige Lavrov. Kerry also talked about Brussels and the

121
00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,880
Speaker 1: Islamic state attack of every country that has an ability

122
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: to make a difference to you, and this evil scourge

123
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:11,240
Speaker 1: that comes from dash and violent extremism. Vice President Joe

124
00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,480
Speaker 1: Biden says Republican efforts to block a Supreme Court nominee

125
00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 1: during an election year is dangerous and is an escalation

126
00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,920
Speaker 1: of partisanship. Biden plans to deliver its comments and a

127
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,680
Speaker 1: speech to be delivered today at Georgetown Law School. About

128
00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,800
Speaker 1: sixty high school students have been treated after their crew

129
00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,240
Speaker 1: boats capsized and high winds on the Hudson River near

130
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,680
Speaker 1: the city of Poughkeepsie that's about seventy miles north of

131
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,480
Speaker 1: New York City. Global News twenty four hours a day,

132
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:40,240
Speaker 1: powered by our two journalists more than a hundred fifty

133
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,120
Speaker 1: news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael Barr Francy Tom, Michael,

134
00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 1: thanks so much our news this hour brought to my

135
00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:50,439
Speaker 1: Westchester subar up visit Westchester subar ut dot com. Futures

136
00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,840
Speaker 1: negative twelve, doubt futures negative eighty nine. Right now the

137
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,920
Speaker 1: sports report where the Ray Contina Auto Group. That Ray

138
00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,720
Speaker 1: Contina show you the way to affordable luxury driving. Visit

139
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,600
Speaker 1: anyone of their sixteen beautiful showrooms in New Jersey and

140
00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:10,360
Speaker 1: New York. Ray Thanks to probably not a coincidence, the

141
00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,240
Speaker 1: Nick slide came as christophs Porzingis had a bit of

142
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,560
Speaker 1: a rookie wall. His production was down, but last night

143
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,840
Speaker 1: he tied a career twenty nine points, ten rebounds. Carmelo

144
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,160
Speaker 1: Anthony had a twenty four and the nixt one at

145
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,520
Speaker 1: Chicago one fifteen one oh seven, using a big third

146
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,679
Speaker 1: quarter outscoring the Bulls thirty five to eight teens. And

147
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,920
Speaker 1: then I try to sweep the home and home. Same

148
00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 1: two teams meet tonight at the Garden where last night

149
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:30,880
Speaker 1: Rangers beat the Bruins five to two. Got it started

150
00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,439
Speaker 1: with two first period power play goals thirty nine saves

151
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,559
Speaker 1: for Henry Glunquist's Blue Shorts, closing on Clinton. The playoff.

152
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,400
Speaker 1: Berth Islanders improved their chances in that department at four

153
00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,640
Speaker 1: point lead for a wild card spot. They ended a

154
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 1: four game losing streak at three one home win over

155
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,719
Speaker 1: Ottawa NZ double A tournament tonight includes last year's champ,

156
00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:50,880
Speaker 1: Duke facing Oregon in Anaheim. After Oklahoma and Texas A

157
00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,360
Speaker 1: and M double header in Louisville, Illanova faces Miami. Kansas

158
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 1: takes on Maryland. After four seasons with the Giants, wide

159
00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,960
Speaker 1: receiver Rubin Randall signed with Philadelphia, so he'll face the Giant.

160
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,200
Speaker 1: It's twice we know about retirement towards Derek Jeter and

161
00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,439
Speaker 1: currently Kobe Bryant about to start David Ortiz. There's never

162
00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,760
Speaker 1: been a two year long retirement tour. Alex Rodriguez told

163
00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,200
Speaker 1: an ESPN reporter he'll call it quits after seen so

164
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,400
Speaker 1: not until he collects every dollar of that Mega Yankee

165
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,520
Speaker 1: contract with the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. I'm John Stash John.

166
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:25,640
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to editorialize, but I don't think Ted

167
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:31,560
Speaker 1: Williams had a retirement tour. His retirement tour was two

168
00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:36,040
Speaker 1: tours of duty in Currie. I believe it was time

169
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 1: futures negative fourteen, down futures negative one ten the tenure

170
00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 1: yield one eight six percent. They bring up the music

171
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,520
Speaker 1: to get me off the air Nightmax Crew nine Baril

172
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:53,600
Speaker 1: done ninety cents from New York and from London today.

173
00:10:53,679 --> 00:11:02,840
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. These source report rates at Kitsina

174
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,679
Speaker 1: Auto Group. Let rate Katina show you the way affordable

175
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,320
Speaker 1: luxury driving could be. Visit any one of their sixteen

176
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,040
Speaker 1: beautiful showrooms in New York or in New Jersey called

177
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:12,520
Speaker 1: What I've Had to Do Auto Group, or go to

178
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:18,680
Speaker 1: rate Kasina dot com for special offers. Global business news

179
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,680
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the

180
00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,880
Speaker 1: Radio plus Mobile Act and on your radio. This is

181
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,600
Speaker 1: a Roomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. This updates

182
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,160
Speaker 1: brought to you by American Arbitration Association. International Trade or

183
00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,599
Speaker 1: Business Dispute Resolve Faster with the International Center for a

184
00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,560
Speaker 1: Dispute Resolution, the leader in alternative dispute resolution around the world.

185
00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:44,200
Speaker 1: I see dr dot org orders for durable good spell

186
00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,080
Speaker 1: to point in February for the first time in four months,

187
00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,839
Speaker 1: reflecting a broad based slowdown and underscores lingering softness in

188
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,800
Speaker 1: US capital investment. Meanwhile, filings for US unemployment benefits last

189
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,520
Speaker 1: week grows less than economist forecast as a number of

190
00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:02,120
Speaker 1: dismissals stayed consistent with a firmly supermarket futures are moving lower.

191
00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:04,520
Speaker 1: We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading

192
00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,839
Speaker 1: day on Bloomberg SNP e Many futures down fourteen points,

193
00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,720
Speaker 1: Dow e Many futures down a hundred six nasdact Emuni

194
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,320
Speaker 1: futures down twenty seven, the decks in Germany's down one

195
00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,360
Speaker 1: and a half percent, and your treasury of four thirty seconds,

196
00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 1: the yield one point eight six percent yield on the

197
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 1: two year point eight six percent. Nimex screwed oil down

198
00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:24,000
Speaker 1: two point six percent er a dollar three to thirty eight,

199
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,640
Speaker 1: seventy six of barrel comic gold is down a tenth

200
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,760
Speaker 1: of a percent or a dollar ten to twelve. Twenty

201
00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,040
Speaker 1: four fifty announced the Euro at dollar eleven sixty six,

202
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 1: the yen one twelve point four four, and Yahoo Investors

203
00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:40,480
Speaker 1: Starboard Value nominating nine directors to the struggling Web Portals Board,

204
00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,720
Speaker 1: which it contends has been mismanaged under chief executive officer

205
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,200
Speaker 1: Marissa Mayer. And that's a Bloomberg Business flash. Tom and

206
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,960
Speaker 1: Francine Karen, thanks so much. Features to Tier A negative

207
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:58,720
Speaker 1: fourteen right now it is on Wall Street. The following

208
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:04,120
Speaker 1: is from Bloomberg View. Opinions from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Jonathan Bernstein,

209
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,920
Speaker 1: a columnist from Bloomberg View. A lot of Republicans voted

210
00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 1: early for Tuesday's Arizona primary, and a lot of them

211
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,000
Speaker 1: were Marco Rubio supporters. In fact, eighteen percent of the

212
00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,880
Speaker 1: vote went to Rubio and others who had already dropped

213
00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,959
Speaker 1: out in most elections. I have no objection to early voting. Sure,

214
00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,520
Speaker 1: someone who votes in the general election in mid October

215
00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,319
Speaker 1: may miss out on late breaking stories, but most general

216
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,720
Speaker 1: election voters don't actually decide based on that kind of information.

217
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,360
Speaker 1: And yet, the presidential elimination process is a sequential system

218
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,280
Speaker 1: in which states take turns over a multi month primary

219
00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,880
Speaker 1: and caucus season, and in which the results of previous

220
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 1: events can change the playing field. Most notably, candidates drop out.

221
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:44,160
Speaker 1: And that's not all. The sequential system dictates that candidates

222
00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 1: in their campaigns move from one state to the next,

223
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,920
Speaker 1: meaning that Arizona voters who voted a month ago did

224
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,760
Speaker 1: so largely without experiencing much of a campaign in their

225
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 1: own state. Basically, a sequential primary system along with significant

226
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,960
Speaker 1: early voting just doesn't make sense. I'm Jonathan Bernstein. For

227
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 1: more view, please go to Bloomberg View dot com or

228
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,439
Speaker 1: if you go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been

229
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:08,479
Speaker 1: Bloomberg View and Bloomberview Commentary. Can you heard hourly weekdays

230
00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,560
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio Francy Lequi in London and Tom keenan York.

231
00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,640
Speaker 1: Brendan Brown with us, who is an important thinker about

232
00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,960
Speaker 1: the future of our global economics and its interdependencies. And

233
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 1: Francy right now the divergence of some of our central

234
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 1: banks is really front and center. Yeah, Tom, I have

235
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,680
Speaker 1: to give you a credit. He did an amazing, outstanding

236
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:34,800
Speaker 1: interview with James Bullard, the St. Louis FED President. John.

237
00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,560
Speaker 1: Don't let her know it's I don't do it very

238
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:44,840
Speaker 1: just there. Why you were there enough already. Look, I

239
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 1: don't say very often, but let's give credit when it's fun. Okay.

240
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 1: It moved the dollar, and for me this was a

241
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,680
Speaker 1: real game changer because I don't know what to think anymore.

242
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,600
Speaker 1: So Brendan hopefully can actually give us, you know, shed

243
00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,640
Speaker 1: a bit of light on on what the Fed is thinking.

244
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,320
Speaker 1: We know being told too much information. Jannet Yellen last

245
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,680
Speaker 1: week saying, look, it will be two interest rate hikes.

246
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:07,800
Speaker 1: James Bullard I was saying, look, we may see an

247
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:12,160
Speaker 1: interest rate hike as soon as in a couple of months. Well,

248
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 1: but clearly some conflicting views on on the FED. I

249
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,840
Speaker 1: think the big story of the first two months of

250
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,800
Speaker 1: this year has been a general backtracking from the fiber

251
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 1: FED from its program of great height, and you've seen

252
00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,720
Speaker 1: that reflected in a general pullback of a dollar, a

253
00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 1: general risk on with risk risk markets rebounding, and bear

254
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 1: squeezes in many markets. So that's been the story of

255
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,160
Speaker 1: winter UM and the added wrinkle that we were having,

256
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,880
Speaker 1: especially mild I think in the United States February and

257
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,360
Speaker 1: March and so some of the economic data seems to

258
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 1: be rebounding, but there's not much constance that's actually telling

259
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,480
Speaker 1: you anything because it may be weather effect and many

260
00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,760
Speaker 1: sub rhythms and everything else. So the question going forward

261
00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,040
Speaker 1: from here is um is the FED actually going to

262
00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:02,280
Speaker 1: speed up its rate types from from having gone backwards

263
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 1: because of the either inflation picture or the real economic

264
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 1: picture um and that that will depend on the data flow.

265
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,400
Speaker 1: I mean my own view is that the growth the

266
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:17,160
Speaker 1: growth pictures is still pretty sluggish, serious downside risk, and

267
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 1: the inflation probably will not emerge at this point. Does

268
00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 1: the dot plot have to go? Did it because it's

269
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 1: been unhelpful? I think adopt plots has to go. It

270
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,880
Speaker 1: doesn't mean it will go. It's being given the nature

271
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 1: of monetary bureaucracy. But it may get less and less attention.

272
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 1: Well make it less and less attention. But you know,

273
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 1: I made a joke Brendan to President Bullard. I said,

274
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,960
Speaker 1: I caught you one night back in your pickup truck

275
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 1: under the arch and piling your Indiana University textbooks in

276
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 1: the Mississippi River. And you know that got some nice play,

277
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 1: and it's a joke. Ha ha. But come on, none

278
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 1: of this is in the textbooks you add at the

279
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,440
Speaker 1: University of London or an LC, right, none of it's

280
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 1: in the textbooks. The Great Monetary Experiment and were according

281
00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,199
Speaker 1: to new rules, not totally new, but it's new for

282
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,399
Speaker 1: the last forty or fifty years. So last time anything

283
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 1: like this happened was in the nineteen thirties with said quantities.

284
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 1: But critically this is important, folks. It's a Thursday before

285
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 1: we go into a long weekend. Is our monetary experiment?

286
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,959
Speaker 1: Dr Brown a Gilbert Kem set where your parents are

287
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 1: upstairs and no, you're not going to get killed? Or

288
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 1: is it that year you're junior or in college where

289
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 1: you pick up the hydrochloric acid and the professor goes, now,

290
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 1: you may better not want to do that. Which experiment

291
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 1: is it? I think it's more like the latter, And

292
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,200
Speaker 1: I think it's an experiment where where the people running

293
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 1: the experiment uh claiming success far too early. I mean

294
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,600
Speaker 1: when hears from past architects where it's Berankie and Presanty

295
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 1: yelling saying the experiments very successful. That nobody can really

296
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,439
Speaker 1: judge with success of an experiment short of one complete

297
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 1: business pycle. We don't know how it's all going to

298
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:03,199
Speaker 1: end up yet. But Brendan's psychology, right. The problem is

299
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 1: that the more negative you are, if you don't say

300
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 1: you're un sure about the experiment, then Mark has latch

301
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,959
Speaker 1: onto that, and then that feeds into the economic cycle.

302
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,119
Speaker 1: And so that's the worst outcome. Yeah, I agreed, but

303
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 1: I think the markets are fully aware of the nature

304
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 1: of the experiment and it's and its fragility. Hence you're

305
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 1: not seeing real strength and business spending anywhere because everyone

306
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 1: in our dog knows this may end up badly. So

307
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,680
Speaker 1: the monetary uncertainty is being very counterproductive, and you see

308
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 1: that not just in the U S and Germany, but

309
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 1: also in Japan. I just got two tweets in Francine

310
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,680
Speaker 1: on Gilbert kemp sets. I'll have to explain that at

311
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 1: another time. Brendan Brown. The one we have not talked

312
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 1: about this week is Mr drag He has a unique experiment.

313
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 1: Of course, we've seen axel Weber and others that you

314
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 1: B has talk a more traditional line. Is Draggy listening

315
00:18:56,119 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 1: to his nation's How alone is he in Frankfurt. I

316
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: think it's very, very lonely in terms of German public opinion,

317
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 1: because he's seen as essentially having carried out a massive

318
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 1: transfer of again of German savings into Southern Europe and

319
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 1: particularly Italy, with the question again being whether drag is

320
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 1: the Central Bank Governor of Italy in charge of ECB

321
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 1: and and he's very difficult to to get away from

322
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 1: from that image. And and if you're in Germany, you

323
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 1: said you don't see any of the deflation drag he's

324
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 1: talking about. If you actually measure inflation in Germany in

325
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 1: the same way as the US, taking account of house

326
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 1: prices up sixty in the last five years, Germany inflations

327
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 1: high of the US. Brendon, That's unfair, isn't it though.

328
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 1: I mean, I know the Germans view hit differently to

329
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 1: anyone else in Europe. But Drugging managed to get the

330
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 1: backing of Angela Merkel. Otherwise he wouldn't have been able

331
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 1: to put a simulus package in the first place at all. Oh, yes,

332
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 1: drag is only done when he's because of Merkel, and

333
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 1: we saw that last year when he went to concert

334
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 1: with Merkel before introducing que over the top of the

335
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,159
Speaker 1: bunds Bank. So a hundred percent. But of course this

336
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: is another factor which may be part of the story

337
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: of the eventual fall of Chancellor merc or when when

338
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,239
Speaker 1: German public opinion comes around to realizing the enormity of

339
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: what's happened. We also have to mention Japan, Brendan, you

340
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,920
Speaker 1: mentioned it very quickly. This is probably the biggest experiment,

341
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: especially with negative rates, and they seem to have backfired

342
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 1: so far. And I think a big question now it's

343
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 1: being asked in Tokyo, is m the next um part

344
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 1: of the experiment is going to shift to a fiscal arena,

345
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 1: and there's high expectations that primust Arby is going to

346
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 1: launch a big fiscal stimulus so called in in April

347
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 1: or May, and that really will be monetized. So we're

348
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 1: moving on to a monetized fiscal expansion. And at what

349
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 1: stage will that tip the end and Japan into a

350
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 1: high inflation experience for any one final question, if we could,

351
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 1: there's a silly illusion to April and the fedwood raised rates.

352
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 1: They can't do that with the economic data coming and

353
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 1: can they? I can't see it even if we we

354
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 1: got some sort of inflation clip, And given what's happening

355
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 1: in markets, it seems that they they're coming off the top. Two.

356
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 1: Brendon Brown, thank you for a Thursday up. They greatly

357
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: appreciate it. FJ and Uh just valuable. I can't say

358
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: enough about the clarity of his books, including a number

359
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: of years ago, the global Curse of the Federal Reserve

360
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 1: was that's quite a title, but the Global Curse of

361
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve was actually a very thoughtful treatise. I'm looking,

362
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 1: Francine at the headlines out of Belgium and um, the

363
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 1: last I looked a little quieter. Um, Brussels airport is

364
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: still going to be problematic, isn't it? Through the weekend.

365
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: I was I was going to France scene there on

366
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,959
Speaker 1: Brussels airport. But we'll can seen you on your futures.

367
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: Negative thirteen down futures, a negative one oh five is

368
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 1: a turing to the market after wait this morning, I

369
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: would suggest oil bears watching thirty seventy two, down a

370
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: dollar seven on oil. Brent crude now finally below forty dollars,

371
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 1: the barrel gold a churning, no story there, and the

372
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 1: dollar fractionally stronger. Francy Lakwan, London. I'm Tom Keene in

373
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: New York. Another hour of Bloomberg surveillance.