1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time, 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandul because they're 4 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and because 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long. 6 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: And when I win with FanDuel, I get paid fast. Plus. 7 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: FanDuel is now live in Ohio, so use promo code 8 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: favorites and download the FanDuel app today to start making 9 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: every moment more. 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In Louisiana, visit m D 19 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: Gambling Help dot org in Maryland one eight seven seven 20 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four 21 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: six seven, three six nine in New York, one five 22 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: to two seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one 23 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to 24 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I 25 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Continent Officer of the Action Network. 26 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 1: We are heading into divisional round of the playoffs in 27 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 1: the NFL. Just a crazy wild card weekend. I am 28 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: joined and as I am for every episode by my bff, 29 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon Hello, 30 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: chat in person. We are in person, so you guys 31 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: will all see this on video. But we've had a 32 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: crazy weekend here at Action Network because we have been 33 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 1: building a studio for the past several months that we 34 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: we had hoped would be ready in September. Then October, UH, 35 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: supply chains got the best of us and it's still 36 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: not entirely ready. But our video team UH and several 37 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: others pulled off herculean effort to launch the studio this weekend. 38 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: So we did our Convinced Me show from the studio, You, RayBan, 39 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 1: Sean Kroner, Dan Velle, we're all on the studio. We 40 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 1: did Action Island from the studio yesterday, UM, a fan 41 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: duel show, and you and I are recording the podcast today. 42 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: Of course we get in the office today even though 43 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: and the internet is out in the entire office, and 44 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: of course everything in the studio is Internet enabled, so 45 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: we just came back on. You and I are sitting 46 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 1: very close to each other because the lights in the 47 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: studio still aren't working. So if you're watching this on video, 48 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: that's why it looks as awk it as it does. 49 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: If you're listening on AMP. If you're listening to the show, 50 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: it probably sounds great. Because we're in the studio. We're 51 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: gonna get to the divisional games. I want to recap 52 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: wild Card weekend. For me, highlight of wild Card weekend 53 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 1: has to be uh. We rented a ridiculous loft in 54 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: the village in the city airbnbad for a few days 55 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: that a bunch of people were staying in. We had 56 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 1: watched parties there throughout the weekend. I'll watching the game 57 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: together last night the Bucks Cowboys. Matt Mitchell had under 58 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: forty five and a half and watching Matt Mitchell sweat 59 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: the under forty five and a half in the last 60 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: five minutes when it seemed like the Cowboys were making 61 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: every decision they could to slow the game down and 62 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: the Bucks were running fucking draws to speed the game up. 63 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: Cowboys were going down with cramps or some kind of 64 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: injury to stop the clock even when the Bucks running 65 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: the draw and then the Bucks get the on side 66 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: kick which never happens, and then almost complete that touchdown pass. 67 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: I'm glad we have Matt Mitchell with us today. Yeah, 68 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 1: it was a fun weekend. It was good hang of 69 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: you guys. I got to meet a couple of guys 70 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: that we worked with that I've been met before. Definitely 71 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: interesting going up on Friday. I mean, Chad, you got 72 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: here what you got your Monday right Sunday night. So 73 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: I first saw Chad Monday. I was basically comed by Monday. Honestly, 74 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: it was just wild card weekends, a lot of work 75 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: people behind the scenes here. We did an amazing job 76 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: putting all together, and now it's hilarious. Like I was 77 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: joking with a buddy, I just never would imagine five 78 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 1: years ago, when I was living in Vegas and making 79 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: bets that. Five years later, I be in New York 80 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: City Wild Car Weekend in a studio talking shows. Uh, 81 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: I just never saw a sports betting being this mainstream. 82 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: So very cool experience. Um. Once again, the team that 83 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: Chad hired and put together and put this all together. 84 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 1: It was truly amazing to see it be done because 85 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 1: it felt something like they had done before and all 86 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: these people had done before, where it was kind of 87 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: the thing where it's like a first time from everyone 88 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 1: a part of it. So pretty cool experience that is 89 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: very said it much better than I have. That was 90 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: pretty amazingly done. Um, all right, Wild Card Weekend, it 91 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: wasn't great for us. Um, we never want to go 92 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: to and too know the Buck Well, we didn't go 93 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: to and two we were one and three. The Bucks 94 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: was the exact decision for me. We got it A 95 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: plus two and a half didn't cover our foxhole. We 96 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: gave out on Tuesday Ravens plus six and a half, 97 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: so we lost that. Bill's minus third teen was our 98 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: big balls. Got crushed on that. We're gonna talk about 99 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: that for a second. And then you did win. Simon says, 100 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: Jags plus one and a half, which turned out great 101 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: for us. Matt, you had an unusual circumstance during the 102 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: Bills game. Explain what happened to you. Yeah, So the 103 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,799 Speaker 1: first half of that game was the longest first half 104 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: in terms of how many minutes transpired in NFL playoff 105 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: first half history. So my timing of my flight to 106 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 1: New York for this, the studio launch event was thrown off. 107 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: So I was in the air for the last few 108 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: minutes of that game, and the internet went out on 109 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: the plane, so I was in totally totally blacked out 110 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 1: from any information with the core and Miami has the ball. 111 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: I am dying inside. I can't believe I got myself 112 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: into this position. I look and felt physically ill, and 113 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: the fight attendant eventually says, are you okay? And I said, 114 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: I need to know the final score of that Bills 115 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: Miami game in the worst way. The game was almost 116 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: certainly over by that point. She goes, is this a 117 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: gambling thing or like a fan thing? She said that unprompted, 118 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: I go, it's both of those things, ma'am. She looked 119 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: genuinely concerned, walked away, got on that phone that goes 120 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: to the cockpit, talked for a second, Talk Talk Talk 121 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: hung up, comes back and goes it was thirty one 122 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: Buffalo final. I think they radioed the ground and got 123 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: the final score. I was consumed with relief and after 124 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: that was the happiest and best behaved passenger in airline history. 125 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: And were of course on the Cincinnati For the record, 126 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: everyone knows we love the luck rankings from Sean Croner 127 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: and Nick Giffin and Billy Ward. The two games that 128 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: had the biggest discrepancies for luck rankings this weekend. The 129 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: Bills should have won right based on expectations, and the 130 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: Ravens should have won. So that's why we love betting. Though, Chad, 131 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: we talk all the time that we love the rand 132 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: missile football. We got brain by it like that that 133 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: Bills won what was it seventeen nothing when it started? Yeah, 134 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: feeling really good? Uh did the classic mistake of I 135 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: knew saying out loud to the group of I was 136 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: with all the people from Action, I said, I knew 137 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: this was gonna be a lay up, and right then 138 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: it completely once I said that, well it just felt 139 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: that way and say like out loud, yeah, because if 140 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: you said that, I would have been like, dude, who 141 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: are you, because we don't even text during a game. Yeah, 142 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: but I'm saying, like, in your mind, you're up seventeen 143 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: nothing against Skyler. Skyler, You're feeling pretty good going against 144 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: a third tree quarterback in Miami. But that's why we 145 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: love football, the turnovers, all the weird bounces. I think 146 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: they had a fourth and eighth they converted, a third 147 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: in nineteen or a third and fifteen they convert against 148 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,239 Speaker 1: the bill. So that was a wonky game. The Ravens 149 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 1: won't hurt because it felt like we nailed it. Um 150 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: now that it felt like we were on the right 151 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: side of it, and a one in a whatever it was. 152 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: I think it's only happened, um twice out of eight 153 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: playoff games that someone returned a fumble yards free touchdown. 154 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: So um, that hurt, especially when it took the six 155 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: and a half with us. We talked at the time 156 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: that that was kind of the pro move of like, 157 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: you gotta trust your instincts that keep taking the number 158 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: that comes when it's a good number. We got the 159 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 1: nine or nine and a half, we got the ten, 160 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 1: we got the eight and a half, we got the 161 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: seven and a half, All those covered. But yeah, the 162 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: six and a half did and so that was that 163 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: was a tough, tough one to lose when you're just 164 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: on the right side of the whole game. And I'll 165 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: play like that happens Jaguars. Obviously we were going crazy. 166 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: Chad was crazy. I was going crazy. Um, I will 167 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: be the first to admit. Another game we watched at 168 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: the Airbnb and I didn't say anything. I just said 169 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: I gotta leave because it was three turnovers in the 170 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: first half. I not that I was in a bad move, 171 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: but it was just pissing myself of like fuck, like 172 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: I put way too much on that Jaguars one and 173 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: a half, two and a half, all of it. I 174 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: just that one just really jumped out all week where 175 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 1: it's just a man like this line does not make 176 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 1: sense because it's the Chargers, Like the Charger's gonna charger. 177 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: Get back to the hotel, go to sleep, and I 178 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: wake up to just never ending amounts of miss calls 179 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: text um from people from Action and just other people 180 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: I bet with and my family, um, because I've said 181 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,719 Speaker 1: they're like I didn't know what I bet. And yeah, 182 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: it was one of those real moments. I woke up. 183 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,079 Speaker 1: It was eight so we were good on the two 184 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: and a half, feeling really good in that fourth and 185 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: one player by Doug Peterson. That was kind of it 186 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: kind of felt like it came full circle of our 187 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 1: whole reason for backing them was Doug Peterson and Trevorlawrence. 188 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: Obviously he had to Peterson, yeah, but I'm saying he 189 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: had the four touchdowns in a row. But the reason, 190 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: and we said this the entire week, the reason we 191 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 1: loved the Jags as home underdogs was because coaching coaching, coaching. 192 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: At the end of the day, we trusted Doug Peterson too, 193 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: and it was about this very specific thing. Doug Peterson 194 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: will make the right decisions. Brandon Staley will not. That 195 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: was it. And Peterson is now six and oh as 196 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: a dog in the playoffs in his career, pretty pretty 197 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: incredible stat and he's a dog again this week. So 198 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: one of those things of we trusted the number, the 199 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: number was gonna hit. That was one of those where 200 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: the booker is just so sharp come this time of year, 201 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: and yeah, it felt great to get that out right, 202 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: But definitely by far my worst bet um of the weekend, 203 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 1: I think chi I would agree, was that Bucks game 204 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,599 Speaker 1: that was one of those that who knows all the 205 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: stuff that's going on behind the scenes, But that was 206 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: one of those of just the first half in you 207 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 1: were like, Okay, this is a total mismatch of a 208 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: team that but these themselves like Dallas do and a 209 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: team that just seems like they quit in the books. 210 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: So we'll eat that. And that was a terrible bet 211 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: terrible read by us, terrible terrible um uh uh. So 212 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: a lot of the themes that we're talking about now 213 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: are gonna come up again. One of the things we 214 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: decided to do every week we do foxhole, we do 215 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: Simon says, we do exact decision, we do big balls. 216 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 1: Obviously gets harder and harder to do that during the 217 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: season when there's only four games, I mean, when there's 218 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: few and fewer games. So this week for Divisional round, 219 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: we're including totals in the pool of bets we can 220 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: choose from because you and I both we were looking 221 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: at lines last night and already felt like there were 222 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: some totals that we liked, and it's been some interesting 223 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: movement um in the numbers so far, so we're going 224 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: to include that as well. It's funny last thing, as 225 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 1: you mentioned the Jacks and I was talking to Raybon 226 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: I think Saturday night was Sunday night at the Airbnb. 227 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: Was super fun. It was about fifteen or twenty of 228 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: us UM for the Bengals Ravens game. You had, you 229 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: had left and um and everybody like was generally on 230 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: the Ravens, and everybody was on the Joe Mixon under 231 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: receiving and rushing yards and in the first series he 232 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: had all the touches and he had like twenty yards 233 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: in the first series of the game, and the rest 234 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: of the game just disappeared and it played out exactly 235 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 1: the way we wanted to play out. UM. Great weekend, 236 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: super fun. It's so much fun to sweat these games 237 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: with so many people that are sort of doing it together. 238 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: It's fun, but it's also tougher for me. It's tough 239 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: for me where it's like it's one of those where 240 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: here and when you're in a room with other people 241 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 1: that are on other bets. The same reason I hate 242 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: watching that sports books. It's like I feel like an 243 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: ass rooting against someone else's bet. And it's always that 244 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: weird feeling of like when I'm working with when I 245 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: was with there with the action guys. It was fun 246 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: because we're most most all of us are on the 247 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: same side. Um, but yeah, it was. Uh, say, my 248 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: most fun I had was seeing Bills fans swell out 249 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,199 Speaker 1: that Miami game. That was just really funny to be 250 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: around them, just because I've been there before. You're a 251 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: big favorite, You're feeling so good, so confident, and just 252 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: like down football, the Rugs pull for a nephew. So 253 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: that was pretty funny. I wish Matt Mitchell was there 254 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 1: for that Bills game because it was. Honestly, that was 255 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: probably my favorite game in the weekend, That Bills Miami game, 256 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: just because we already talked about Miami should not have 257 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 1: been in that game, but because football is so stupid 258 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: and it comes down to just a handful of plays, 259 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: they only lost by three. So if that was just 260 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: an absolute wild game, Let's get to some games. Uh. 261 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 1: First came up Jacksonville visiting Kansas City. Kansas City is 262 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: an eight and a half point favorite. The total in 263 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: this game right now is fifty two and a half 264 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 1: and so I want to talk about that for a 265 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: second because it's moved this morning. Um, it was at 266 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: fifty one, fifty one and a half. I unfortunately bet 267 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: it this morning at fifty one and a half because 268 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,079 Speaker 1: I thought it was going to go back down in 269 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: no joke. Two hours later is it fifty two and 270 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: a half. And it's interesting because all the money is 271 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 1: on the under, which concerns me, which means if it's 272 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: going up, some pros are coming in on the over. 273 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: So now I'm sick to my stomach. Yeah, that's one 274 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: of those where I would just say be cautious. Um, 275 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: if you can find a fifty three, you can grab it. Now. 276 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: That's obviously Chad just talked about fifty two, fifty two 277 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: and a half. Those are incredibly key numbers at this point, 278 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: So you grab a fifty three, I would but grab 279 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: the under under. Yeah, but at this point I would 280 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: say me and Chat are leaking confidence on that play. 281 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: When we were coming into we really like to have 282 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: another total will give out that I really love um 283 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: for our fans that take this week, but to be 284 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: in this game new right away when this line came out, 285 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: me and Chad we're going to like the Jags. We 286 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: love the Jacks on the spot on the simple fact 287 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: it's mahomes bigger than a touchdown or even bigger than 288 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: three point favorite. We know all the data backs up. 289 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: You fade my homes in these positions, and then that 290 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: you like to fade the one seats. Historically, the one 291 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 1: seeds just don't cover in these kind of games, these 292 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: matchups usually it kind of leans towards the dogs historically 293 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: as well. If you're gonna take a dog this big 294 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: that Jacksonville is, say they do touch nine nine and 295 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: a half, you want to throw someone the money line 296 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: because the return on investment over the years. You want 297 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: to take these big dogs in divisional round on the 298 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: money on as well as taking the number. Um, it 299 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: is just profitable. So to me coming into this chat, 300 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: I wanted to make this one of our foxhold bets 301 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: or you know, Simon says, taking the jacks here. My 302 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: only nerve, my only word is just like last week 303 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: with the Ravens, this could bump up to nine. This 304 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: could bump up to nine and a half. I mean 305 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: it's it's going to be the most teased game of 306 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: the week like this in the Eagles. I mean, everyone's 307 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: gonna do the two teamers. Um, this is gonna be 308 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: in there with them. So the books want to hang 309 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: this at six and a half seven probably, and they 310 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: got bumped all the way up. I feel like the 311 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: eight and a half nine at most books just because 312 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: of the teasers and la parlays. I mean, that's a 313 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: lot of the early money, but but a lot of 314 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: the money right now coming in and the jacks. So 315 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see if it does get teased up. 316 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: Well definitely, is that's what you're seeing all the tickets? Yeah, 317 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: Like people just aren't being that in this time a week. 318 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: People aren't taking these these these numbers straight. I would 319 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: just be shocked people are grabbing eight and a half 320 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: just because I assume everyone coming on the jacks, I 321 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: mean they're I felt like there were going to be 322 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: a public dog, and then we'll talk about they're not 323 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: the most public dog. There's another dog this week. There's 324 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: even more public. But it depends on what books you 325 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: look at um right now. But yes, the Jags are 326 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: getting a lot of money. At Arrowhead with Andy Read 327 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: in Kansas City. The under is This is from Evan 328 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: abrams Are, Director of Research. The under is fifty four 329 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: thirty eight and eight point. When the chiefs are seven point, 330 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: favorites are higher. Sample size of forty six games sixty 331 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: to the under. Again, that's where our instincts kick in 332 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 1: and me and Chad just love chief unders, and obviously 333 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: the math bears it out. What's frustrating is that we're 334 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: not getting the best of the number. Well you are 335 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: now if you shop you can find fifty, But I 336 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: got a better again. You just don't think that way though, 337 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: because it's like it sucks that you got it, but 338 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: you're you're rulling the dice when you bet early in 339 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: the week, and you know that. So it's like one 340 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 1: of those where when I'm better in the week, it's 341 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 1: little feelers. You really can't get that much money down 342 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 1: anyway because books are limits to you. That's why the 343 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: Ravens one sucks. Were kind of has a loss from 344 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: last week where it's like six and a half was 345 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: there for maybe two days, the seven and a half 346 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 1: and everything else was there for four or four and 347 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,719 Speaker 1: a half days. Um, that's one of those where it's 348 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 1: like early in this early in the week in the playoffs, 349 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: I just wouldn't rush too hard because most of you 350 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: guys are gonna listening this. You've already missed the best 351 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: of the number in a few of these matchups we're 352 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: about to talk about, but this Jaguar one, I would 353 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: grab the eight and a half just to be safe. 354 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: But me and Chad will not be shocked to be 355 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: come in on Thursday and it's back up to nine 356 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: and nine and a half. It's just it just feels 357 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: like the public eventually will come in on the Chiefs, 358 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 1: while the pros earlier in the week they're just gonna 359 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: take the Jaguars just in case that number does drop down. 360 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 1: Giants seven and a half point underdogs at the Philadelphia Eagles. 361 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: The total in this game is I forgot what it 362 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: was already, forty eight and a half. Money is on 363 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: the over. Money is on the Giants, yea, and it's 364 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: completely understandable. The Giants have been a cover machine this year. 365 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: They're the best team ats wise. The Eagles haven't looked 366 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: like the Eagles, and over a month the public is 367 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 1: completely out on them if you look right now. Super 368 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: Bowl odds are the favorite right on, the NFC and 369 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: fours are favorite with our rookie quarterback and the NFC, 370 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: and they have to go on the road to Philly 371 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: if the Eagles win to play them. So very interesting 372 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: public reception, right now the Eagles, and to me, that's 373 00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: why we're getting valued on this game chat. This number 374 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 1: probably be closer to end, especially if the Eagles had 375 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: just been healthy, right, if they had blown out everyone 376 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 1: the end of the season, whenever they were gonna be 377 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: sixteen on one, fifteen and two, it would just be 378 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: a completely different number. But I think the public is 379 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 1: just all in on a Giants team after arguably Daniel 380 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 1: Jones best career game of his life against what we 381 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: would both agree chats they had bad Vikings defense. I 382 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: mean it's night and day the comparing these two defenses 383 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: again about the biggest u v O a guy. But 384 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,439 Speaker 1: at this point of the season you can take it 385 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,479 Speaker 1: in because it's literally a factor of the whole season. 386 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: Eagles against the past are ranked two. They're literally the 387 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: second team against the past. Twenty nine in football is 388 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 1: the Vikings. So am I shock da Daniel Jones astolutely 389 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 1: tour them o through the air chat, not at all. 390 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:43,959 Speaker 1: We're getting the Eagles team rested. The every everyone I 391 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 1: thought was gonna come running in on that Eagles number 392 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: when I was at seven, and then they didn't. We 393 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: saw early money came in on the seven on the Giants, 394 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 1: and it's still up to seven and a half, which 395 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: it is nice to know the pros are backing us 396 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 1: with the Eagles, but honestly, I knew what going in. 397 00:19:58,000 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: I was gonna take them. It's just a nice spot 398 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: an Eagles team at home, well arrested in that atmosphere. 399 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk on Thursday about it. Though. All these trends, 400 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 1: like I want to get more of the trends, they 401 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: all poured point towards the Giants. It's just historically divisional round. 402 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: Same thing we talked about the Jaguars. You do historically 403 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 1: want to take these big numbers against the one seed. 404 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 1: It's just been profitable to take these big numbers. So 405 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 1: that's one of those were That's another game where I 406 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: would love to make him my sign and says, I'm 407 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: just worried the seven is gonna come down to seven 408 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 1: and the seven and a half's gonna come down to seven. 409 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: I just want to give people a bad number because 410 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: I think it is going to come down to seven. 411 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,719 Speaker 1: I too, because it's already been bouncing around. It's been 412 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 1: bouncing around. We just the money's gonna keep coming on 413 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: the Giants. I just they I just pros as well, 414 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: like the early money that the early early money has 415 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: not been professional. It's coming on the Giants. I think 416 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 1: they were hoping teasers once again and everything would come 417 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: in on the Eagles and this number go up to 418 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: maybe eight, eight and a half and that'd be a 419 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: great value to them. Um. I just I like this 420 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 1: Eagles even even at eight, I would still honestly take 421 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: this Eagles team. I just see this being a bigger 422 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: gap than people realize. Where um, the Giants and the 423 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: Vikings when we saw them play earlier this year, that 424 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: game came down to a field goal last second. With 425 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 1: that Vikings team, it's completely different teams. This Egos team 426 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 1: was the class and NFC all season. So my only 427 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,640 Speaker 1: hesitation and doubt with the Eagles if you are betting them, 428 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: is what most people are feeling right now is you 429 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 1: just haven't seen hurts or this team look right and 430 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: over a month while the Giants, on their hand, have 431 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 1: been rolling. I think the books you're telling you something. 432 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 1: You're hanging such a big number because even if they 433 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: hung a six six and a half, it would still 434 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 1: be getting tons of Giants money. They didn't need to 435 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: hang a seven and seven a half. The reason they're 436 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 1: doing that is protecting against professional money that's coming on 437 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: the Eagles, So definitely be carefully. You've been thinking about 438 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: loading up on a giant too. There's just something really 439 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: fishy about this line. Sometimes you say stuff like that 440 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 1: and it sounds like you're saying it as an individual. 441 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 1: And I've come to realize over the course of the season, 442 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:58,160 Speaker 1: when you say stuff like that, there's more behind it 443 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: than just you saying. The books are doing this, so 444 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 1: be wary. It's fishy. It feels like there's something I 445 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: don't know. Yeah, there always is. I mean, you can't 446 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 1: give away all the secrets, right, Yeah, that's part of 447 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: being a magician. But yeah, I'm just I just want 448 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 1: to cause this caution people because I just felt like, 449 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: especially fans of the show, most of them would just 450 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: think we'd be blindly beyond the giants here divisional dog 451 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: catching more than a touchdown. Um, I just want them 452 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 1: to same thing we talked about the Seahawks last we 453 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 1: against the four Niners. There's just there should be a 454 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 1: little bit of pause here. Uh, in this matchup. It's 455 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 1: just not as easy as it looks. It's never as 456 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: easy as it looks simon. Otherwise we'd be going four 457 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 1: and oh every week. It's true we had a good season. 458 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: We wouldn't be making bad decisions on the bucks. What 459 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 1: do we think of the total here? I don't know 460 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: what to do because I really want to take the over. Um. 461 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: I just see the Eagles be able to put up 462 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: a lot of points against this Giant's defense. I mean 463 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: they put earlier this season. I have to go back 464 00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 1: and look. The Eagles might have beat them two or 465 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 1: something crazy like that. So, um, they played earlier this year, 466 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 1: both teams healthy, going all out. Neither defenses could really 467 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: stop the team's offense. Obviously, Eagles made stops against that 468 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: Giant's offense. But um, it's it's hard to really it's 469 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: it's hard for me to get up the under. But 470 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: that is what I bet. It was forty and a half. 471 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: I took the under. It's down to forty eight. Once again. 472 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 1: I think people should just wait. I think it's the 473 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: number you just wait on. Um. But to me, if 474 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: you can find the seven at any book for the Eagles, 475 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 1: that's the bet you make now. I would just wait 476 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 1: on the side and total for this one again because 477 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: I do think like you just talked about, I think 478 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a a lot of movement on this game, 479 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 1: especially when weather it might play a factor, because they're 480 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: predicting right now is rain for this game. So hold 481 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,959 Speaker 1: off on betting this total just in case of weather movement. 482 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: I'm waiting on the side too, I mean, because right 483 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: now it's at seven and a half and I want 484 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: to get it at seven. I do think it'll go back. 485 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,680 Speaker 1: Agree if you're a Giants, if you want it back 486 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,439 Speaker 1: to Giants, roll the dice. Grabbed a seven a half now, 487 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: just in case of that, because again it might go 488 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: up to end you you're gonna screw yourself in again 489 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: a better number. But if you're with me, with me 490 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,160 Speaker 1: and Chad just taking the Eagles, you might as all 491 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 1: wait and hope you get down to that seven, because 492 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: the difference between seven and a half and eight it's 493 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,199 Speaker 1: not that much. It really it doesn't land on eight 494 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: as much as you honestly would think it's it's honestly 495 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 1: anomaly at this point just because of two plaica versions 496 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: and extra points uh misses that we land on eight anymore. 497 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 1: It's just not you're more likely to land on nine. 498 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 1: Honestly than you are eight statistically, So that's one of 499 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: those don't get too freaked out if you didn't get 500 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: the seven and a half with the Eagles. I'm gonna 501 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: say one thing right now, I am making an executive decision. Uh, 502 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: ding ding ding ding ding ding ding. Executive decision. I'm 503 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: going with the Chiefs and Jags under fifty two and 504 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 1: a half, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? 505 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: Are you happy? Orders extic executive decision. It's a vandal 506 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 1: right now, fifty two and a half. I'm going with 507 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: the under fifty two Chiefs and Jags. It's a little scary, 508 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 1: but that's what I'm saying right now. I want to 509 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: remind everybody in case you haven't seen, in case you 510 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: haven't gone on to Actually network lately, uh, we have 511 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:07,400 Speaker 1: an incredible subscription product. Um. We started as a subscription 512 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: only business. We are running like a lot of the 513 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: a lot of the data that Simon refers to that 514 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,639 Speaker 1: you hear Chris Raybon or Stucky or Sean Kerner referred 515 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: to in the various Action Network podcast or when you 516 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 1: read their stories, it comes from information that is available 517 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,680 Speaker 1: to pro subscribers right now. Action is running a fort 518 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 1: off sale on Action Pro for the NFL playoffs, So 519 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: you guys should all go check that out. It's a 520 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: pretty great deal. I use I use this stuff every 521 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: single day, every single number, especially labs. It's amazing. Bengals 522 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,160 Speaker 1: on the road at the Bills. The Bengals who probably 523 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 1: shouldn't have beaten the Ravens now down basically their whole 524 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: offensive line against the Bill's team that should have blown 525 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: the Dolphins out of the water. Um, the total is 526 00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,919 Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. All the money coming in 527 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 1: on the over and the number has been bouncing around. 528 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,479 Speaker 1: It got as low as three and a half. Uh, 529 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 1: it got as high at six. It's now at four 530 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 1: and a half. This is a really interesting one. It's 531 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: one of the only no that's not true. I was 532 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: gonna say, um, we've got a real pro Joe split 533 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: here though. You know, you know what We're gonna call 534 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 1: this one, foxhel fox Hole going with the Bills, Foxhold Bills. 535 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 1: Hit the damn music man, Mitchell Alert here on Josh Allenko, 536 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 1: He's he's a football fire through and through. Here there's 537 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 1: last of there we go jos can excuse me? Cuts 538 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: down how many quarterbacks. Have you ever seen hurdle anyone 539 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 1: good at this? There's no fear, no way he was. 540 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: I'm the demands to do something about for this album 541 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 1: rages and i Ani making louder and louder. No brainer. Yeah, 542 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: I just pretty much summed up perfectly. You're getting an 543 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 1: undervalued Bills team coming off arguably one of their worst 544 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 1: games of the season. Defensively, offensively, special teams wise. I 545 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 1: love everything about this one. I mean, not only do 546 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: I think mcdermotts one of the best coaches on football, 547 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: he's the only defensive head coach if you look at 548 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: all the teams left. Every other mind is an offensive mind, 549 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 1: his specialist defense. And now he's going up against an 550 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,880 Speaker 1: offensive line that's missing three starters. Three key starters, not 551 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 1: not just three guys like that have helped plug holes 552 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 1: on that offensive line. Really important cocks to that pieces 553 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: of that Cincinnati team chat. So when we saw it 554 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,360 Speaker 1: last week with the Ravens, obviously Ravens defense, I would 555 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: raid them. I'd grade them a little higher than I 556 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 1: would the Bills. Honestly at this point, I mean that 557 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,959 Speaker 1: you saw how it that that defensive line was for 558 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 1: the Ravens against the run against Joe Burrow. We're not 559 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,199 Speaker 1: gonna get that same kind of turnout here from the Bills. Right, 560 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 1: They've they've lost von Miller, but they're gonna be able 561 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: to scheme up incredibly difficult schemes on that defensive line 562 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 1: to stop for that offensive line when you're bringing guys. 563 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 1: And that's the biggest thing, right, there's all these little 564 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: call signs, all these little things that as the season 565 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,680 Speaker 1: goes along, these offensive line they built up a trust 566 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: of Okay, they're switching in this formation, we know how 567 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 1: to counter that with our own call signs. Everything like that. 568 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 1: When you're bringing in three new guys at the end 569 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: of a season to play in those roles that they 570 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: need to make calls in the middle of snaps of 571 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 1: guys rolling off doubles, whatever it is to like rotato 572 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: or different sides. That's a huge deal for the Bangos. 573 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 1: We saw that last week. They really looked like the 574 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: team they were last year. Right, they needed a ton 575 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: of luck to win games and make up through the playoffs. 576 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 1: Not this regular season. This regular season, the Bangos were 577 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 1: legit dominant. I mean the books they hated them. That 578 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: was free money was every week for people to bet them. Um. 579 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 1: I mean they might have covered since the Super They 580 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 1: be like twenty four a t s um since the 581 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 1: playoffs last year, completely including this past season, so they 582 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: were on an absolute role. But we're seeing to finally 583 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 1: catch up to them, and we're seeing the market catch 584 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: up to them. I mean, the the Bengals are going 585 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: to attract a ton of public money this week because 586 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 1: in their mind, people said, yeah, the Bengals had a 587 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: bad week. They put the crap. So are the Bills 588 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 1: like they shouldn't be catching more than three points? They 589 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: think this is a really bad line. So me and 590 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 1: Chad I knew, not that I knew Chad was in balls, 591 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 1: I knew that we would have a debate about this 592 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 1: when I try to convince them to come the side. 593 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 1: He was already on it with me from the get go. 594 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 1: So to me, we can grab four and a half 595 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 1: right now, Fandel. That's why I really want people to 596 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: go get it right now, just because I do see 597 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 1: it going up. I see the pros coming on the 598 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: Bills just because of that big issues right now on 599 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,480 Speaker 1: the offensive line and vice versa. I think the Bills 600 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 1: grabbing are gonna being a nice bounce back spot here 601 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: like that. They're the issues they had against Miami easy, 602 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 1: easily fixable, easily fixable. The Bengals are not like that. 603 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 1: Stuff they cannot cure in a week. That stuff they 604 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: need to change. So big, big movement this week. I 605 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 1: just talked about it. Some books open this six and 606 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 1: a half and all of us were like, what the hell. 607 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 1: Immediately got bet down, Immediately got bet down a three 608 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 1: and a half four, And we've seen just the pro 609 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: money coming in now trickling a back up to four 610 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: and a half five. So um, if you're able to yes, 611 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 1: scrab that four and a half with us, I just 612 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: cannot see us be moved off the position. I just 613 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: I'm going to be on the Bills this week. I'm 614 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: not not going to be a shock at everyone. I 615 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: don't have an upset on this side of the bracket. 616 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 1: I got it being pretty boring neutral field Bills, Chiefs, 617 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,719 Speaker 1: But I just think they were two they there are 618 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 1: two best teams they have see off season. Nothing's changing 619 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: for me at this point. They're like, yes, the Bills 620 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 1: have had injuries. The Chiefs honestly are getting healthier at 621 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: this point in the year. But the Bills. They do 622 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 1: have some injuries. I still think they're far above better 623 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 1: than I really banged up sincin that a team that 624 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: they can't overcome all these injuries. They needed that offensive 625 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 1: line to give Burrow time to be what he is, 626 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 1: which is a great quarterback. He just does not have 627 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 1: it right now. Uh. Interesting, Obviously this game is a 628 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: rematch of a game that happened, didn't happen, you know, 629 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,720 Speaker 1: three weeks ago in that game in Cincinnati, so much 630 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: at stake for the playoffs, um, and now we've got 631 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 1: it being played in Buffalo. Buffalo was a favorite. You know, 632 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 1: we were talking about that game just from a betting 633 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: point of view from a few weeks ago. You me 634 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:23,160 Speaker 1: Vegas refund, we do action island with um, people being 635 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,960 Speaker 1: we all like Buffalo in that game and people being 636 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: nervous after watching the beginning of that game, which means 637 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: means nothing still human. Now all of a sudden, we're 638 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 1: so confident in the Bills injuries. What a difference, and 639 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: what a difference. This is good Doll's dream of not 640 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 1: that the man's heartless, that these owners are heartless, but 641 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: it is a business. And Joe Burrow made the biggest 642 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 1: mistake of this season because he used a good human 643 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 1: being of going over to that Josh Allen and the 644 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: Bill's humans saying, no, it's fine, we both shouldn't play 645 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: this game. Let's walk away. Were the rule really states. 646 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: Joe Burshol walked over and said, hey, we're ready to play. 647 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 1: Josh Allen said, well we're not, and he would say, okay, 648 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: then you forfeit, right, and the Bill said yes to 649 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 1: be forfeit and this game would be in since here 650 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 1: right now, the Bills would be on the road. So 651 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 1: this played out just as Roger wanted it. We'll never 652 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 1: see anyone ever again walk away from a game because 653 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: they put those rules in place and they were piste. 654 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 1: So since the fans, I get it, they've been complaining 655 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 1: already this week that they shouldn't have to be playing 656 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 1: this game and Buffalo it should be a neutral field. 657 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 1: I get where you guys are coming from. It sucks, 658 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: but those were the rules. You guys left the field 659 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,360 Speaker 1: voluntarily and just like the Bills didn't, and the Bills 660 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: have no need to be punished. So Bills have this 661 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: at home. They deserve to be getting the points. This 662 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 1: is the cyber definitely gonna be on and to me, 663 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 1: if it stays under six, there's no doubt you're getting 664 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 1: good value on this Bills team. Um I just I 665 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: just love this matchup for that defense and such a 666 00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: nice bounceback spot where everyone's, like I just said, everyone's 667 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 1: so down on this team, where any pro with the 668 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 1: computer model is going to project out the Bills ssuily 669 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: should have covered last not easily covered, but they should 670 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: have covered. And one what would this line have been 671 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 1: if they had done so right? This would probably would 672 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: be six and a half six. So to me, we're 673 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 1: getting a point point and a half of free value 674 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 1: just based off last week. While you were talking, I 675 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,880 Speaker 1: did what I like to do on assignment, says Bet. 676 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 1: I went into the app and I quick slipped it. 677 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 1: I used fan to a quick slip in the Action 678 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 1: Network app. I'm in New York. It was so freaking 679 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 1: easy to get the total on this game. Uh opened 680 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 1: over fifty. I think it's at forty eight and a 681 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: half right now. So I think it's the same thing 682 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: of projo looking at that old line of the Bengals 683 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 1: and they just think they're gonna have issues moving the ball. 684 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 1: So I love the under of fifty, I would still 685 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 1: take it. We can chat already talked about four d 686 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 1: and a half's a key number. I grabbed that now 687 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: if you could. This is just a game. I will 688 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,440 Speaker 1: be on the under right now. There's only one game 689 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,720 Speaker 1: I'm leading towards the over, and that's that Eagos Giants game. 690 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 1: That's most likely for me to end up on that over. 691 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 1: I just really liked the unders this week, especially after 692 00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 1: a five and one over week for wild Card weekend. 693 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see a little bit of over 694 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,920 Speaker 1: adjustment from these sports books which early money on, especially 695 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 1: this game. That's that's that's very interesting. The pros are 696 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,440 Speaker 1: coming on this under so heavily, but it makes sense 697 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: we really think about since Anali and those offensive and struggles. 698 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 1: The Divisional round of the NFL playoffs are here, and 699 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 1: the easiest way to get in the playoffs is with 700 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 1: FanDuel America's number one sports book. 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Redline is one eight hundred, eight 732 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 1: eight nine eight nine one eight hundred five to two 733 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:18,560 Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler 734 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. So in the next game, 735 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 1: here's what I don't get right now, We've got a 736 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 1: bills minus four and a half is the foxhold. The 737 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,359 Speaker 1: exact decision is Chief Jacks under fifty two and a half. 738 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:36,239 Speaker 1: We old people assignment, says um, So we're talking about 739 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,880 Speaker 1: the forty nine and the Cowboys right now. Uh this line. 740 00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 1: I see some fours out there at FanDuel right now, Um, 741 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,759 Speaker 1: this game is at four. Uh what say you? I 742 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:52,880 Speaker 1: see some three and a half's out there too. What 743 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,799 Speaker 1: say you, Simon, We'll just start off right off the tops, 744 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 1: So if you canna make their beds real quick, Simon says, 745 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 1: under forty six and a half, it's right now is 746 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,719 Speaker 1: my favorite bet of the week. I love yea love well, 747 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 1: and we don't we think it's gonna go We think 748 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,080 Speaker 1: it's potentially going to go lower. So I think the 749 00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 1: pros are gonna keep betting down, especially if you'd even 750 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 1: been following along. California has been getting destroyed by bad weather, 751 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:25,240 Speaker 1: like they've just been getting NonStop rain, um, bad floods, 752 00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 1: all of it, which obviously feel horrible for those people 753 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: living out there. We got lucky last week if you 754 00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,319 Speaker 1: bet the three Niners. Like literally it was just right 755 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 1: in the middle of the football game. It opened up 756 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:36,960 Speaker 1: and was sunny. It was as if it was so 757 00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,319 Speaker 1: weird it was bizarre. Yeah. Yeah, So that was one 758 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 1: of those where I felt lucky being on that over 759 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,000 Speaker 1: in that game because of that where um I bet 760 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: you over honestly because of the bad weather and there 761 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,319 Speaker 1: was no bad weather and that helped them. I mean 762 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 1: they were moving up and down the field of both offenses. 763 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,960 Speaker 1: So in this matchup going to coplet other way, I 764 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 1: think Dallas is gonna have a big advantage against Purty, 765 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,640 Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna be a huge advantage in 766 00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 1: the four nineers against Dac. Doc does not like to 767 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 1: be moved off this spot. That's one of those things 768 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,799 Speaker 1: where Tampa just couldn't get to them. They simply could 769 00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:09,760 Speaker 1: not touch the guy. Never moved them off his spot, 770 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:11,440 Speaker 1: so he was able to pick them apart. I mean, 771 00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: we've seen Dac when he's comfortable, he can do what 772 00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,480 Speaker 1: ever he wants. You go back and watch this even 773 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,719 Speaker 1: two weeks ago that Watchington game. All they did was 774 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,520 Speaker 1: moving him off the spot, and he was just uncomfortable. 775 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 1: He hates being moved out of the pocket deck. So 776 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 1: look at his matchup of the four nineers. That's exactly 777 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 1: how their defense plays. Um, I like the three and 778 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 1: a half, you, I'm not gonna lie with the four 779 00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,080 Speaker 1: and niners. I just feel way more confidence right now 780 00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,719 Speaker 1: taking the under because I can see both offenses struggling 781 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:40,320 Speaker 1: first two defenses. That, yes, the Cowboys secondary is incredibly suspect, 782 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 1: we all know that, we all agree on that, but 783 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,080 Speaker 1: they still have a really dominant from four and and 784 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: this match up against Purty. He's not faced anyone, especially 785 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 1: like Parsons, like a very dominant force that has the 786 00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:52,920 Speaker 1: speed to catch up. When the kid tries to run 787 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,320 Speaker 1: out of the pocket, he's going to be caught by Parsons. 788 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,719 Speaker 1: He is not out running him. So UM, like the 789 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 1: four nineers. We'll talk more out there on Thursday, because 790 00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:02,799 Speaker 1: I would tell people, grab the three and a half, 791 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:04,800 Speaker 1: you're going with us. I'm just a little worried. I 792 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: want to talk to other professionals right now because I 793 00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,120 Speaker 1: know the number has been bent down by a really 794 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,800 Speaker 1: smart group. They came in right right away on the Cowboys. 795 00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,719 Speaker 1: UM four and a half for a good reason. I 796 00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,880 Speaker 1: think there there. It's the it's the looking at a 797 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,719 Speaker 1: team at a high winning percentage, like they do have 798 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,920 Speaker 1: the four nins. What are they now? They might be 799 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,480 Speaker 1: fourteen and four at this Yeah, they want to lemon straight. 800 00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,400 Speaker 1: Their fourteen and four on the season. UM, that's incredible. 801 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,000 Speaker 1: Historically that's not good though in the playoffs in this round. 802 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,200 Speaker 1: That's again, these are all crazy trends we're gonna talking 803 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,239 Speaker 1: about Thursday. It's not good to be a high seed 804 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,839 Speaker 1: with a huge winner percentage. You already know that. UM, 805 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,880 Speaker 1: I'm already on a couple of favorites this week. What 806 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:48,920 Speaker 1: can I do? Like? I like this number. I think 807 00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:53,759 Speaker 1: we're getting fair a fair market value. But I know 808 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,680 Speaker 1: the pros aren't overacting to that game against the Bucks, 809 00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:58,560 Speaker 1: and that's the money that's driving this number down. So 810 00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:00,680 Speaker 1: that's what's giving me such worry about picking a side 811 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,279 Speaker 1: here where the total I feel like this is such 812 00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:05,080 Speaker 1: a good number. Like this number to me is gonna 813 00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,279 Speaker 1: keep coming down. I see closing closer to forty four. 814 00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,239 Speaker 1: So if you can grab the forty six and a 815 00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,160 Speaker 1: half now, I would because I do see this this 816 00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,480 Speaker 1: total drop. I just I feel the general public might 817 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,520 Speaker 1: be on the over, but all the pros are gonna 818 00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,640 Speaker 1: see this is going to be a very strong defensive 819 00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,240 Speaker 1: matchup on both sides of the ball. It's just favorites 820 00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,680 Speaker 1: both sides the line wise of the ball, where yes, 821 00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 1: Fortnits do have a great run blocking scheme, but we've 822 00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,200 Speaker 1: seen it Dallas. This kind of team, they can take 823 00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,239 Speaker 1: that away where you can scheme that up, but they'll 824 00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,120 Speaker 1: figure out a way to get Parsons evolved in all 825 00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,800 Speaker 1: these plays. So um, yeah, Chad, I I wanted to 826 00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,840 Speaker 1: come in here and be really staunched and taking the 827 00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,080 Speaker 1: forty niners. It's just gonna be a pause from on 828 00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 1: that one. But I do feel confident that in this 829 00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,120 Speaker 1: under it, Well, it does feel weird to me that 830 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,360 Speaker 1: the Cowboys are getting the sharp money right now, and 831 00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,560 Speaker 1: I agree with you, which seems like it. I noticed 832 00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,560 Speaker 1: that it feel like a little bit of a reaction, yeah, 833 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,279 Speaker 1: and like it's not like what I just had the 834 00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,319 Speaker 1: last night. But that's the antithesis of what you get 835 00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,279 Speaker 1: from professional betters, so at it it makes no sense 836 00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:02,879 Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, so that's one of those like I'll 837 00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,360 Speaker 1: get home to be starting to erupt, But I could be. 838 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,000 Speaker 1: Everybody was coming in on the Bucks last night at 839 00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:13,960 Speaker 1: two and a half, and so maybe they're over but 840 00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,680 Speaker 1: we knew professionals were on the Bucks, and so they 841 00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,759 Speaker 1: could be overvaluing their own opinion, Like, wow, I thought 842 00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,560 Speaker 1: the Bucks were so good and the Cowboys killed them, 843 00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:23,719 Speaker 1: So I was right about the Bucks. They're amazing, so 844 00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,239 Speaker 1: the Cowboys must be better. You know, I would say 845 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,439 Speaker 1: what it felt like to me because I've only watched 846 00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 1: that game once. I'm gonna rewatch it later tonight. Again, 847 00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:35,800 Speaker 1: this is the Bucks Cowboys game to me, The shocking 848 00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,640 Speaker 1: thing was how prepared McCarthy had that team. Yeah, I 849 00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,560 Speaker 1: mean it's not very good, no, And they were incredibly prepared. 850 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,759 Speaker 1: The scheme was I mean it was brilliant, honestly, like 851 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,439 Speaker 1: the way they attacked Tampa um on all offense. Even 852 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,319 Speaker 1: if Tom had played an r A game, right if 853 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:52,960 Speaker 1: they had put up a couple of points. I do 854 00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:54,960 Speaker 1: think the Dallas took their for off the gas, like 855 00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 1: they really could have beat the Craft by that Bucks defense, 856 00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,560 Speaker 1: and they really didn't. So the public is going to 857 00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,839 Speaker 1: be over Surturs team chat. That's what's giving me such pause. 858 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 1: And we've already seen in the market the forty niners 859 00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,759 Speaker 1: right now. I've already said they're the favorite to win 860 00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:09,359 Speaker 1: the NFC, so they are clearly the darling of the public. Um. 861 00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,600 Speaker 1: But like Chad just said this, this is one of 862 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,440 Speaker 1: the more interesting lines this week. The pros are taking 863 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,440 Speaker 1: a stand right now on this Cowboys team. So, um, 864 00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,200 Speaker 1: it's one of those I just wanted better side people, 865 00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,360 Speaker 1: because I do think Chad and I we might end 866 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,400 Speaker 1: flipping on Thursday. But as we sit here right now, 867 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,840 Speaker 1: we like the fourty niners. You know, we're quicker this 868 00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,880 Speaker 1: week because there's just there's not that many games. Reminder, 869 00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,239 Speaker 1: Foxhole Bills minus four and a half. Simon says the 870 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,439 Speaker 1: total in the Niners Cowboys forty six and a half. 871 00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:41,920 Speaker 1: Exact decision under I'm sorry, the Simon says, is the 872 00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:45,320 Speaker 1: under the forty six and a half, of which is 873 00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,920 Speaker 1: the total in the Cowboys Niners. And then the exact 874 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:53,880 Speaker 1: decision is the Chiefs Jags under fifty two and a half. 875 00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:59,200 Speaker 1: We will give out a big balls on uh Thursday. 876 00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,680 Speaker 1: Think that's everything? Yeah, all honestly, can't wait till Thursday. Now, 877 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,960 Speaker 1: can't wait till Thursday, can see can't wait to see 878 00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,680 Speaker 1: if there are big balls on Thursdays. Is betting the 879 00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,840 Speaker 1: Niners against the wise guys? I was saying me that 880 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:14,080 Speaker 1: flip flip us on the Eagles commits us to take 881 00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:15,480 Speaker 1: the Eagles in the seven a half. Be a man, 882 00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,279 Speaker 1: take the seven a half because I'll be honest, I 883 00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,719 Speaker 1: want that seven. That's seven and a half. The hook 884 00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,920 Speaker 1: of course that that might be the big balls. But 885 00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,399 Speaker 1: this has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast 886 00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:31,400 Speaker 1: Network for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. Producer extraordinaire 887 00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,840 Speaker 1: is Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple podcasts from Spotify, 888 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,600 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review, subscribe, leave us 889 00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,520 Speaker 1: five stars, Say whatever you want, feedback as a gift, 890 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 1: Listen all the way to the end if you love us, 891 00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,399 Speaker 1: so we can stay ranked in Apple Podcasts until next time. 892 00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:59,200 Speaker 1: I Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 893 00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,400 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 894 00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,160 Speaker 1: help is available. Seven Gambler